Things have changed since Vero Beach 1948.

According to Carrie Watters and Rebekah L. Sanders of the Arizona Republic, the cost of the new Glendale, Arizona spring training facility - Camelback Ranch - has jumped to nine figures.

Glendale's spring training complex for the Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago White Sox is on track to open in February. But the cost, originally pegged around $80.7 million, sits closer to an Arizona Republic estimate of $115 million, with an additional $40 million for nearby infrastructure.

The facility's price jump came with additions such as stone façades on buildings, pools in the clubhouses, the shape of the facility's manmade river, and rising costs such as cost of materials and code compliance issues, according to the city and builder. Of that $115 million, the teams will chip in $7.2 million. ...

* * *

Nearly three years ago, we learned that former Dodger minor leaguer Mike Nixon had traded his glove for a spot on defense with the Arizona State football team. Nixon, now 25, last night scored one of the Sun Devils' record-tying four defensive touchdowns in a 34-9 victory over UCLA.

According to this Jeff Metcalfe story in the Republic, Nixon got a $1 million signing bonus from the Dodgers that lured him away from ... UCLA. Nixon was a third-round pick in the 2002 draft, chosen 420 players ahead of Russell Martin (as this year-old recap of the 2002 draft by Diamond Leung of the Press-Enterprise indicates).

Here's an excerpt from a 2002 Scout.com brief on Nixon:

Nixon told AZCentral.com that he made the decision to give up his football scholarship with no regrets. "I'll miss it, but I'm not going to look back at all," he said. "I made my decision. If I have a bad game, I'm not going to think maybe I should be playing football. It won't be like that."

Sometimes, regrets are for the best.

* * *

Angel Berroa is a candidate for Oddity of the Year honors. (Thanks to Dodger Thoughts commenter D4P for the link.)

* * *

Branch Rickey with his grandson in Vero Beach, 1948. All three of today's photos are from the Life magazine online archive and were taken by George Silk.

Ben Reiter of Sports Illustrated makes the case for the hefty hurler:

The list of major league pitchers who enjoyed extended and successful careers despite carrying some excess meat on their bones is as long as those hurlers are wide. Mickey Lolich, Rick Reuschel, David Wells, Fernando Valenzuela, Sid Fernandez: None of those gents was ever called upon to pose in his Jockeys, the way Jim Palmer once did for a national ad campaign. But each pitched effectively into at least his mid-30s, and between them they accounted for 17 All-Star Game selections, 10 top 5 finishes in the Cy Young balloting, a no-hitter and a perfect game. Then there was the fellow with the 2.28 career ERA who might have been the best of them all had he not discovered early on that he was even more talented with a bat than with a ball. He was a cherubic chap—not as big as he'd become, but no waif either. Went by the nickname the Babe.

But the message from each of the half-dozen experts contacted for this piece—a group that included doctors, academics and pitching gurus (none of whom know or have personally examined Sabathia)—was uniform: Be careful what you pray for, Mr. Simmons. While signing a pitcher to a free-agent deal always represents a gamble, they concede, the odds that he'll stay healthy aren't lengthened as you move from L to XXXL. In layman's terms, one can effectively be both a pitcher and a belly-itcher. "I'm not aware of any evidence that directly correlates size with injury," says the University of Washington's Dr. Stanley Herring, who is a team physician for the Mariners and the Seahawks. "It's not just size. It's lean body mass, training, conditioning, power, strength, endurance. There are a lot of pitchers who make you want to say, 'Hey, man, put a shirt on—this isn't pretty.' But it's not just what the package looks like; it's what's inside." ...

* * *

My daughter likes to type e-mails to me from my cellphone. Here's what she sent me Wednesday night:

11-26-08, Happy birthday :-) :-( ! Do you see the faces? They mean good news and bad news. The good news is, it's your birthday. The bad news is, you are old. Bye-bye! :-) :-(

Eat, sleep and be thankful and merry!

Blindly noble, disingenuous or dumb?

"If you bring somebody in to play and pay them, pick a number, $30 million, does that seem a little weird to you?" Dodger president Jamie McCourt said to Dylan Hernandez of the Times and other reporters gathered at the Evergreen Recreation Center in East Los Angeles, where the Dodgers announced they would be building 42 more community ballfields to add to the eight they have already created. "That's what we're trying to figure out. We're really trying to see it through the eyes of our fans. We're really trying to understand, would they rather have the 50 fields?"

Well, it's certainly an interesting concept. The Dodgers could become the first professional sports franchise whose ownership and fans prioritize community service over on-field performance. Who could deny which is more important in the grand scheme of things?

Only one problem: Who's going to buy tickets to the community service?

If you're asking your fans, i.e., the people most invested in your team winning, it's pretty clear (unless you are blindly noble or dumb) what they're going to say. They're going to say you should get the best players, create a winning team, and then use the fruits of victory to help the community.

The Dodgers should know this and, assuming they do, certainly shouldn't pretend that they don't. And by the way - it's not like you actually put it up to the fans. You went out and committed to the 50 fields without actually giving them a chance to weigh in on what was more important. Were they really trying to understand, or were they vainly trying to justify a surrender in the free agent market with a guilt trip? "Sure, we could sign Manny Ramirez - but what about the children?"

You don't need to tell us that it's a tough economy. You don't need to tell us that children are more important than Manny Ramirez. But have the courage of your convictions. If you want to take a stand against high salaries, if you want to take a stand for the kids, don't cloak it in "what the fans want," especially when you betray ignorance of what the fans want. That's not intelligent public relations.

Now, it's entirely possible that this is making too much out of one isolated quote from the Dodger team president - although certainly, that's the one from Tuesday's press conference that's going to be remembered. So let's also look at what Frank McCourt had to say:

"It's not so much what we can and can't do so much as it's affecting what's appropriate," McCourt remarked (per Diamond Leung of the Press-Enterprise). "I don't think anyone knows. I feel things are a little different. We need to review our priorities a little bit."

It's fair. You're allowed to review your priorities. But shouldn't the McCourts be worried that Dodger ticket-buyers will be doing the same? Because I assure you, there are more efficient ways for the people of Los Angeles to help their fellow citizens or ride out the New Great Depression than by funneling money through the front office at Stadium Way.

If the McCourts want to make a real statement about what's appropriate in the economy, a statement that their fans will relate to and appreciate, then build some fields and cut ticket, food, concession and parking prices. If they want fans to tighten the belt of their expectations, then they need to tighten the belt of their revenue.

Otherwise, just focus on getting the best players, and leave the morality out of it. I'll root for an austere team in austere times, but I'll have a lot more trouble embracing hypocrisy.

* * *

By the way, Slumdog Millionaire is a wonderful movie - you should definitely try to see it.

Not surprisingly, I'm hitting this year's November 26 with about 1 percent of the angst that I had last year's. Turning 41 just isn't the same as turning 40.

True, many of the concerns are the same: the inability to live within my means (compounded, as it is for everyone else, by the overall economy), the feeling that I'm getting dumber instead of smarter, the stunted social life – important parts of life in general falling through the cracks. But I have been working hard, on both the things that come easier to me and the things that come with more difficulty. I'm still spoiled, but I'm not more spoiled than I was a year ago. That might be progress.

The world is an expensive place, in just about every sense of the word "expensive." I'm getting a lot, but I've still got so many fiscal, physical and emotional bills to pay. It's so humbling.

But I'm grateful. And I've got galleys of a Dodger book to review this weekend. Happy Thanksgiving (in advance), everyone.

What was the Greatest Game Ever Played in major league baseball history – the sport's equivalent to the 1958 Colts-Giants NFL championship classic? For a story he's working on, Bill Shaikin of the Times e-mailed me to ask Dodger Thoughts readers for their opinions.

First thoughts I had were Yankees-Pirates 1960 World Series Game 7 or Red Sox-Reds 1975 Game 6. However, Shaikin pointed out that there is also the issue of how big a factor social or cultural significance should play in the decision. The 1958 NFL game, for example, launched pro football as a national television obsession. What major league game had it going on, both on the field and off?

An upbeat prognosis for James Loney's power was posted by Derek Carty at The Hardball Times.

(Thanks to Dodger Thoughts reader Preston Bannard - not this guy - for the link.)

Since I didn't have time to do a full post today, allow yourself to browse through the newly posted Life photo archive - subject: Dodgers.

This photograph of Roy Campanella was taken by Robert W. Kelley in March 1959.

I got a tip this afternoon from Highlands Today sports editor Brian Gjurgevich that was one of those things I couldn't believe. But it turns out it was true.

I checked with Josh Rawitch of the Dodgers, and he confirms:

We have received word that Chad Billingsley slipped (on ice) down stairs outside his house and fell in Reading, PA and suffered a spiral fracture of the fibula in his left leg. He had surgery today to put a plate in and he will be in a cast for two weeks which will allow the fracture to heal.

The surgery was performed by Dr. Paul Neuman, an orthopedic surgeon in Reading, and went as expected. By all indications, it is believed that he will be ready to throw bullpens by the beginning of Spring Training. While this obviously isn't good news, the timing of the injury is not bad given that it we do not expect it will affect his readiness for 2009.

Gjurgevich had a contact whose son was in the hospital at the same time as Billingsley.

Jim Molony of MLB.com profiles Dodger vice president and assistant general manager Kim Ng. An excerpt:

Even with impeccable credentials, landing a GM job is extremely difficult. Assistant GMs work their way up through the ranks, and even if their resumes pass muster, they usually have to go through at least one interview, and often two or three, before getting that first GM job offer.

"Absolutely, knowledge is huge in this game," she said. "You've seen in the last 15 years the game has changed, our thought processes have changed. You have to be open-minded. I think that's one of my strengths, being able to listen to people, hearing them out, knowing after you hear the information to synthesize the information and coming up with your own judgments as far as what makes sense and what doesn't." ...

We have a frontrunner in Dodger Hill. (Thanks to Blue Heaven for the link.)

Casey Willard directed and co-wrote/co-starred with Brian Petersen.

A plan for the Dodgers to sign Manny Ramirez is offered by Houston Mitchell of the Times. It involves an increase in the team's payroll, but on the other hand, if you can live without some of the other choices Mitchell makes, you can knock that payroll back down to 2008 levels.

Mitchell's post reminds us that the ability for the Dodgers to sign Ramirez (or CC Sabathia) is there. The question is more about fear: fear of shelling out the big bucks vs. fear of not doing so.

The key, I continue to believe, is making sure that the players you spend money on are worthy. Frankly, I might be more troubled by Mitchell's $2 million for Angel Berroa than his $120 million for Ramirez. If the team can't get the big fish, the best course might be to enter 2009 with a lower-budget team that might allow you some flexibility in July.

Meanwhile, in a piece for Baseball Analysts, writer and Red Sox fan Paul Anthony compares his relationship with Ramirez to Stockholm syndrome.

* * *

Kevin Brown might not be a Hall of Famer, but he should at least get the same consideration as Mike Mussina, writes Eric Seidman at Fangraphs (Link via Rob Neyer at ESPN.com):

From 1989-2000, though, Brown was by far one of the best pitchers in baseball. In fact, a look at some of the numbers allows him to stake claim as perhaps the fourth best in this 12-year span, behind Maddux, Clemens, and Johnson.

* * *

Rafael Furcal's medical reports are being examined, at least by the Oakland A's, writes Michael Urban at MLB.com.

Just as I'm heading out the work door ...

Contracts purchased: Jesus Castillo, Victor Garate, Jamie Hoffmann, Brent Leach, Travis Schlichting

Reinstated from the 60-day disabled list: Tony Abreu, Mario Alvarez, Yhency Brazoban, Andruw Jones, Jason Schmidt

The Dodger roster now has a ratio of 4.2 pitchers for every infielder.

Well there she sits buddy
Just a-gleaming in the sun
There to greet a working man
When his day is done
I'm gonna pack my pa
And I'm gonna pack my aunt
I'm gonna take them down
To the Camelback Ranch

That's Bruce Springseen's take. Here follows the Dodger press release:

GLENDALE, Ariz – The Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago White Sox announced today that their two-team, state-of-the-art Spring Training campus in Glendale, AZ will be named Camelback Ranch. Dodger Owner and Chairman Frank McCourt and White Sox Chairman Jerry Reinsdorf made the announcement.

Updated photos of Camelback Ranch can be seen here.

* * *

Update: More from Josh Rawitch at Inside the Dodgers"

I'm actually very glad that a few of you asked about ticket pricing at Camelback Ranch, as I think that it has been portrayed extremely inaccurately by the media that has written about it so far. Yes, there are seats there that cost $90 and they are the equivalent of the Dugout Club at Dodger Stadium - all inclusive with your parking, food, a promotional item, etc. But the key thing to remember is - much like the Dugout Club, there are only about 600 of them in the stadium. That's just over four percent of the ballpark.

The dropoff then goes to $30 per ticket - which means that more than 95 percent of the seats in the park are at that number or less (with some as low as $8). In fact, our head of ticketing told me yesterday that there are seats that are literally in the front row, where you can put your drink on top of the dugout, and they cost just $30. To me, that's nothing to be ashamed of - I actually think that's extremely reasonable. ...

On September 2, 2007, James Loney had an OPS of .824 (.361 on-base percentage, .463 slugging percentage). He OPSed 1.141 the rest of the way and finished the season at .919.

On September 2, 2008, James Loney had an OPS of .820 (.361 on-base percentage, .459 slugging percentage). He OPSed .472 the rest of the way and finished the season at .772.

What Kryptonited our September Superman? For one thing, Loney wasn't as lucky in the final month of 2008. His batting average on balls in play was .227, compared to .393 in September 2007. But Loney's bad September wasn't just about balls not finding holes. Loney had four extra base hits in September 2008, compared to 17 (including nine home runs) in September 2007. He had three walks in September 2008 compared to nine in September 2007. His power and plate discipline just seemed to vanish.

Between these extremes lies the present-day James Loney, the one who has a career .833 OPS (114 OPS+) in more than 1,000 plate appearances before his 25th birthday. Like many hitters, he's streaky, and there's no doubt that 2008 overall ended up being a step back for him. His slugging percentage dropped more than 100 points, his homers dropped despite nearly 300 extra plate appearances, and his rate of grounding into double plays more than doubled (particularly early in the season: 18 of his 25 GIDP in 2008 came by the end of June).

I don't have a magic bullet – not for lack of searching - to kill the uncertainty over what went wrong. His line-drive, groundball and flyball percentages remained fairly consistent from year to year, as did his ratio of plate appearances vs. right-handed pitching. I don't know what pitches he was having trouble with. All I know is that for the first five months of 2008, despite playing every day in the major leagues for the first time in his career, Loney was pretty much as productive as he had been in the same period the year before. Each of the past two Septembers were aberrations.

Given his youth, his reputedly high marks for work ethic and an offseason to reflect on the previous year, I'm betting Loney resumes an upward trajectory in 2009.

This piece below on Mike Mussina, who is announcing his retirement, was first published (a bit prematurely) at Dodger Thoughts on May 15, 2005:

* * *

As I heard reports that the career of New York Yankee pitcher Mike Mussina, who has 215 victories and a 3.59 ERA, might be fast approaching the end - though things have been looking better lately - I went looking for a feature I wrote about the righthander in 1988, while he was a freshman at Stanford and I was a junior.

I was fortunate enough to cover the Cardinal's College World Series championship in Omaha, Nebraska for The Stanford Daily that June - during a week which found Mussina and I both taking final exams (same time, different tests) in a small Holiday Inn or Marriott conference room. But the first time I sat down with the future Oriole and Yankee was in his dorm room two months earlier.

The following article ran in the Daily on April 14, 1988. I thought it would be fun to revisit it here, a meeting between a young ballplayer and a young (and somewhat boosterish) writer ...

It's no joke - Mussina is ready to play
by Jon Weisman
Editorial staff

Get this ...

After a high-school career in which he went 24-4 with a 0.87 ERA and was named Pennsylvania Baseball Player of the Year two years running, Stanford's Mike Mussina has posted a 7-1 record this season with five complete games and a two-hit shutout to his credit. He is also 4-0 in the Pacific 10 Conference Southern Division, thought by many to be the nation's most formidable league.

Okay, so here's the joke. Mussina claims he turned down a six-figure contract to turn pro because ... are you ready? He says he wasn't mature enough.

Somebody had better tell Mike to cut the gag. The 6-foot-2, 180-pound freshman from Mountoursville, Penn., has to be one of the most precocious hurlers ever to lay down his knapsack on the Farm.

"He's undefeated in the best conference in the country," Stanford Asst. Coach Tom Dunton said. "And I think it's tougher to adjust from high school to the Pac-10 than it is from the Pac-10 to pro ball."

There you have it: he's a regular world-beater. But if you question him about it, he will stick to his story with a deep-eyed, earnest, mature response. Pro ball may have been ready for him, but he wasn't ready for pro ball.

"There's no doubt I made the right choice - to come to school as opposed to signing a professional contract," Mussina said. "At the time, I didn't feel I was ready to jump right into pro ball. Coming out of high school, it just didn't seem like the right thing at the right time."

Well, let's give Mussina the benefit of the doubt, for Stanford has all the evidence of being "the right thing." He likes the wide-open campus and the moderate number of students, where "you're a person and not a number." But above all, Mussina likes the two-fold edcuation athletes get at Stanford - on the field, and of equal importance, in the classroom.

"Education's important," he said. "If you go straight to professional ball, and for some reason you can't continue due to injury or whatever, you're kind of stuck with nothing to do. I didn't want to be stuck in that situation."

So, while most Stanford students complain about paying $15,000 for a year of education at Stanford, Mussina paid $300,000 - the amount of the signing bonus he turned down from the Baltimore Orioles organization - to get his partial scholarship to Stanford.

Of course, in return for that large payment comes the tutelage he needs to fine-tune his pitching. For starters, Mussina feels he has to develop his other pitches besides his out-pitch, the fastball.

"I throw so many fastballs in a game," he said. "I could probably throw a hundred curves and come right back with a fastball and throw it right over the plate, or pretty close. I have to be able to throw a curve over the plate, or when I need to, a straight change over the plate - something else besides a fastball."

"He needs a better command of all his pitches, like any young pitcher," Dunton said. "He's got a great arsenal of pitches, but he has to be more consistent with [location]. He's got to throw it over the pitcher's part of the plate."

Problems with location help explain the team-leading 13 home runs Mussina has given up. He can no longer simply blow his fastball past hitters as he did in high school.

Nevertheless, the home-run totals don't concern Dunton, especially since only four of the 13 have come with men on base.

"This is a fastball hitter's league," Dunton said. "The reason they're here is they know how to hit a fastball. Jack McDowell gave up a lot of home runs. They'll cut down as he (Mussina) goes along."

In fact, Dunton paid Mussina the highest of compliments when he said that Mussina compares favorably with McDowell, the former Stanford All-American and current Chicago White Sox phenom.

So, Mussina is learning his lessons well. He has also been teaching a few lessons himself - to opposing batters. Mussina has won seven straight games since suffering a narrow, opening-day 3-2 loss to Santa Clara, and boasts a three-to-one stirkeouts-to-walks ratio.

Obviously, the fact that he's still learning about pitching hasn't slowed him down. But there is one aspect of his game that needs no instruction - the mental side (i.e., maturity).

"That's the first thing that most people notice," Dunton said. "He's got great mound presence and tremendous poise. He doesn't show his emotions on his sleeves like some young pitchers. That's not something you can teach. And the reason probably is (that) he's confident about his abilities."

"I try to stay composed on the mound," Mussina said. "I try not to let things bother me ... you just have to go on and pitch from there. My ability to just put something behind me and go on might be my best strength, as opposed to the physical part of the game."

By the time Mussina becomes eligible for the Major League draft again, when he is a junior, the mental and physical sides of his pitching should be so strong that maybe, just maybe, he'll be ready to hit the bigtime.

"There's a good chance," he said. "If I continnue with the success that I've been having right now, I'll have an opportunity to sign after my junior year. It'll come down to whatever looks right for me then.

"If I had to say right now, I'd probably say I will."

As for Mussina, he completed his degree in economics at Stanford in three years, and was drafted after his junior year - again by Baltimore - in the first round. He reached the majors at age 22 and had an 18-5, 2.54 ERA All-Star season at age 23.

For an interview with a rival general manager, check out Jesse Spector of the New York Daily News querying Arizona's Josh Byrnes. Byrnes is trumping what his team has, rather than what it lacks:

On whether the type of moves the Diamondbacks will try to make require patience for the rest of the market. We've probably been a little more patient than usual. Usually, we've entered offseasons with maybe a few more needs, maybe a few more chips to play in order to fill those needs. A lot of what we've done trying to create roster stability, that's the good news -- we've still got (Steven) Drew, (Chris) Young, (Justin) Upton, (Conor) Jackson, Reynolds all 26 and under as core players. We've got (Brandon) Webb, (Dan) Haren, (Doug) Davis, (Max) Scherzer in the starting rotation. So we have been active, but we have a lowish number of holes we're trying to fill. We've also been trying to be patient and wait to see if some value comes to us, whether it's a trade or free agency. ...

While some of this is just a matter of keeping your sunny side up in public, the fact remains that the majority of the holes that a team has to fill are a) done at a low cost and b) a crapshoot. You're always hoping you end up with a Takashi Saito or Joe Beimel in the bullpen, but overpaying (or overstressing, especially in November) won't guarantee it.

* * *

Another Dodger prospect report: This one comes from Baseball-Intellect and includes video.

True Blue L.A. is letting its readers vote on the Dodgers' top prospects. The top 10 is done, but they're not stopping there.

* * *

Here's a review by Sam Thielman in Variety of Back Back Back, an off-Broadway baseball play that isn't about Chris Berman.

Once again, Itamar Moses has changed the names to protect the guilty. In the writer's fun, structurally clever baseball dramedy "Back Back Back," the offending parties are Raul, Kent and Adam -- proxies for admitted steroid promoter Jose Canseco, accused steroid user Mark McGwire and supposed steroid abstainer Walt Weiss, the Oakland Athletics' three consecutive rookies of the year from 1986-88. Although Moses tries for (and fails at) a lot of pseudo-intellectual dazzle about tradition, history and morality, his real interest is the bounds of friendship, and that's where his play shines. ...

There's a museum in the future of Dodger Stadium, but in the meantime, the new Los Angeles Sports Museum opens downtown November 28, and it gets a nice writeup today from Greg Johnson of the Times.

… The museum's sweet spot is an extensive Dodgers collection that fills a room in the nondescript building not far from Staples Center.

Former Dodgers owner Peter O'Malley has described the collection as "the best that I know of." …

* * *

I'm remembering Sarah Gilfillan today.

Dodger Thoughts reader Andrew Zicklin e-mailed last week following the final Dodger fantasy camp at Dodgertown in Vero.

Sixty-two players, including two women, spent the week with Tommy Davis, Maury Wills, Joe Pignatano, Rick Monday, Steve Yeager, Bill Russell, Jerry Reuss and Carl Erskine. Also along as instructors and coaches were John Shoemaker, Craig (Nacho) Bjornson, Garey (Chicken) Ingram, Marty Reed, Glenn Dishman and Casey Deskins.

A chapter has definitely ended.

* * *

Elsewhere ...

Two primary situations cause me to yell at my kids.

The first is fear of them getting hurt. Saturday, for example, while my wife worked, I took advantage of an invitation to a Staples Center suite and brought my kids there. The Clippers happened to be playing, but that wasn't why I was going. The reasons were to spend time with the friend who invited me, and to be in a confined space where I could patrol all three of my children.

Except you realize once you get there that the space isn't entirely confined. The Plexiglas in front of the suite is so low, a dachshund could see over it. That consterned me throughout the game, which I was hardly able to pay any attention to, though for the most part the kids were good.

Then, in the fourth quarter, while I held the baby, while my daughter gabbed with her schoolmate, my 4-year-old stood on the ledge to the right of the second row of seats, with a smile. And I could read his mind. He was going to try to jump and land on the ledge right in front of the first row of the suite, fronted only by that low window of Plexiglas. And if he didn't stick the landing, if he stumbled forward, he was going to tumble right out of the suite down to the level below.

I yelled his name. I screamed, "No! No! NO!!!" He took off in the air, and he landed on his two feet.

I practically dropped the baby - I laid him down with such haste that his head knocked against the base of a chair. I scrambled over the seats and grabbed my elder son before he got any other ideas.

I lectured him, sternly, emotionally, angrily, almost tearfully but most of all, hopelessly. I lectured him that he had to listen, that the word "No" was a no-holds-barred stop sign that he had to obey. It's a lecture that I've given him on a different scale hundreds of times now, over matters much less perilous, precisely because I wanted him to make sure he listened to me when it really mattered.

It doesn't work. I keep doing it, but it doesn't work. I don't remember ignoring my father hardly ever in my lifetime, but my son does it a number of times each day. After I finished with him, exasperated, I went to the back of the suite, trying to collect myself - and kicked a cabinet. (Even at a Clipper game, where exasperation is par for the course, this gets noticed.)

The frustration is getting to me. I know he's only 4. I know. I'm trying to do what the books and the sage and my head all tell me, with timeouts and 1-2-3 and not getting emotional. But this kid nearly leaped out of a suite without a net; before that he nearly rode his trike into a street. He's a wonderful boy, but he's got a mind of his own and then some. He has to have what he wants and do what he wants to do. And the fear that it churns inside me makes me lose it and yell at him, because nothing is working and I don't want him to end up in the hospital or worse.

The second reason I yell at my kids is out of impatience. If the previous scenario can at least in part be excused as selfless concern, this second situation is more selfish. Yes, I want the kids to brush their teeth the first time I ask, so that they get to bed on time and get enough sleep for the next school day, but I also want them to do it so that I can get to the things I need to do - like Dodger Thoughts, for example.

If I surrender to the kids, if I turn off the clock and just let the pace dictate the pace, it makes a huge difference. If I do all that, I relax. But it's not automatic. The baby is up by 6 a.m., and with that I'm on the clock, either at home or at work, until my 6-year-old daughter turns out her light at 8 or 8:15 p.m. That doesn't leave me much time to attend to the rest of my life. The pressure builds, and I have to make a conscious decision how to deal with it. Sometimes, it's hard to convince myself to surrender. One day it can feel so easy, and the next it feels so difficult.

Either way, I've already yelled at my kids more than my parents ever yelled at me. In that respect, I'm 180 degrees from the dad I want to be. I can't tell you how ashamed I am of this. I want these kids to be good people, but I have to be more willing to let them make more mistakes. I'm too demanding, too proactive, too protective, too paranoid. I need to toughen up, by letting go.

Over the past few years, I think I've already achieved this with the Dodgers. It takes the extreme to make me angry. I offer my opinion, I react, but mostly it's live and let live, hoping for the best, often settling for something less. Before I started this website, I think Dodger lows got to me more than the highs. Now, it's the reverse. The good moments truly elate me, the bad stuff goes away.

It's not a coincidence that since 2002, the year that Dodger Thoughts and my first child were both born, my kids became the real pennant race. But I have to accept that winning and losing are both inevitable. I don't want to be the brat kicking dirt at the umpire. I want to be the guy who accepts defeat with grace and calm and looks straight ahead to the next game.

Much has been made of the dozen-plus free-agent departures from the Dodgers, but what do the Dodgers need?

Some rose as he walked off the mound, while others waited until he approached the top step of the dugout at Dodger Stadium.

He is among the players the Dodgers are attempting to trade for Seattle Mariner pitcher Randy Johnson, and Valdes' career in Los Angeles may have ended because of his strong effort against the Reds. ...

- Ross Newhan in the Times, June 1, 1998

* * *

Yep, Randy Johnson-to-the-Dodgers talk is more than 10 years old now. Pre-Y2K, pre-RJ4K (in Ks). But not since that time has the talk had more weight than it does now, with Johnson having parted ways with Arizona and become a free agent.

Johnson offered to take a 50-percent paycut in order to stay with the team that he has spent eight of his 21 seasons with, but not even that was enough to persuade the Diamondbacks. While this might send up Jason Schmidt-like warning signals (if Arizona doesn't want him, maybe there's something wrong with him), a Los Angeles homecoming for the USC graduate still seems sensible enough.

Though his career seemed all but over - if not in 2007, when he made only 10 starts, then midway through 2008, when his ERA was 5.23 - he recovered to end 2008 with 184 innings, a 117 ERA+ and 173 strikeouts. His ERA in the second half of the season was 2.41. A short-term deal for Johnson could be just right for the Dodgers. Even if he doesn't pitch a full season, he would allow someone like Eric Stults to be a spot starter instead of a full-fledged member of the rotation.

What would it take to sign Johnson? According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, Johnson earned $10 million in base salary in 2008, though Arizona owes him $8.5 million in bonus payments. Johnson won't offer the Dodgers the same discount that he offered Arizona, but he could slot in probably for no more than the $9 million Brad Penny would have earned had he stayed in town, and perhaps a good deal less.

Johnson's days of exceptional pitching are over - he's no substitute for CC Sabathia - but it seems reasonable that he could replace the retired Greg Maddux. Of course, Johnson still is just one option.

Meanwhile, Dave Cameron looks at Sabathia's value at Fangraphs. (Link via Baseball Musings.)

* * *

Josh Wilker has a great piece on ex-Dodger Billy North at Cardboard Gods. Here's the opening:

It must have seemed like it was going to be a blooping basehit, beyond the reach of infielder and outfielder alike. Dick Allen, in the midst of the last of his many MVP-caliber seasons, had been running from second base on the play, and from what I've read Dick Allen was not just a one-dimensional mangler of pitches but an intelligent player who knew the whole game well. He must have sized up the fluttering wounded quail off the bat of White Sox teammate Brian Downing and been convinced that it would touch down safely in the outfield grass. He must have set his mind on roaring across home plate with the tying run.

Must have felt pretty good to be Billy North that day. ...

* * *

"Dodgers" and "monorail" in the same sentence? Tell me more ....

Forty years ago today in the Times, notes Keith Thursby of The Daily Mirror, Tommy Lasorda refuted, in pure Tommy style, comments by Duke Snider that the Dodger organization was a shambles.

"He couldn't be more wrong if he thinks the Dodger future is dim. We've got more bright young prospects in the organization than ever before. ...

"Duke's got to be a little goofy. If we really were short on young talent, who do you think would share the blame. Up until a couple of months ago, Snider was one of our top scouts."

Meanwhile, enjoy the ad (in the second link above) for Therese and Isabelle, which seems to have been the Rochelle, Rochelle of its day.

Thursday is a major earthquake preparedness day in Southern California: The Great Southern California Shakeout. Here's a video to get you alarmed/psyched for it:

Consider this yet another wakeup call for you and me. I've got my share of earthquake supplies, but you know, I don't go the whole nine yards. Don't keep anything in the trunk of my car, for example - it's all in the house, where it isn't guaranteed to help. And I don't have no 15 gallons of water on call (three gallons for each member of the family). It's just one of those things where a guy like me needs to suck it up and understand that to do it right, you got to do it all right.

Let me start by saying that I don't really expect Manny Ramirez to end up being a Dodger next season, mainly because I'm not convinced they'll launch their offer into the stratospheric heights and lengths it will probably take to get him.

Even so, the labeling of the Dodgers' opening offer as an insult has grown tiresome.

There's no way, short of a contract that would have been insulting in its excessiveness, that Ramirez is going to sign with the Dodgers before agent Scott Boras hears offers from other teams. It does the Dodgers no good to come to Boras with their top offer when he's simply going to take it to other franchises and ask them to beat it. Whether you want Ramirez or not, for the Dodgers to offer him and Boras what they want would be a plain mistake.

Think about it this way:

Dodgers Appoint Head of Security

Today, the Dodgers announced the hiring of Ray Maytorena, a bilingual 24-year veteran of the U.S. Secret Service, as Vice President of Security. "Most recently, Maytorena served as the Special Agent in Charge (SES) of the Los Angeles field office, the nation's third-largest district, in which he managed more than 250 employees," a Dodger press release said. "In that capacity, he oversaw security and protection for the numerous large events, including the State Funeral of President Gerald Ford, and served as the lead advance agent for the 1996 Republic National Convention in San Diego."

For those of us watching Dodger baseball on TV a generation ago, the names Murph, Nick and Jill were almost as ubiquitous as Garvey, Lopes and Cey. The first three were characters in an ongoing series of commercials for Union 76 (as Unocal was known back then).

Union 76's association with the Dodgers was strong - for decades they advertised in the circle high above the Dodger Stadium scoreboards, and they also operated the gas station in the ballpark parking lot. As often as these commercials aired, extolling the virtues of gas with spirit (theirs was the David Eckstein of gas), the Union 76 gang seemed like part of the Dodger family.

Murph (played by longtime character actor Richard X. Slattery), was the avuncular gas station operator. Nick (George DiCenzo) was the goofy but well-meaning No. 2. Jill (Jean Rasey) was the girl next door, if you lived next door to an up-and-coming, Pam Beesley-like mechanic.

The fourth member of the troupe was at one point played by Larry Wilcox, until he got cast alongside Erik Estrada in a little masterpiece we like to call CHiPs. I used to think he and Jill would end up getting married (Jill had a fairly active dating life). After Wilcox left, the producers followed television tradition by bringing in a previously unmentioned relative, Murph Jr.

Murph's 76 will always be a part of my Dodger memories.

Here's a very special one ...

* * *

I'd like to wish our country's veterans a good day. I know I've been remiss in expressing such sentiments in the past, but I do truly appreciate their service for us.

The newly Frank McCourt-owned Los Angeles Marathon is moving from March to Memorial Day, says Greg Johnson of the Times (via L.A. Observed).

I'm envisioning a big finish for the hot, sweaty marathoners at Dodger Stadium, followed by a twilight ballgame. Alas, the Dodgers are on the road that day ... in Colorado, where perhaps they'll be playing their own Memorial Day Marathon.

Elwin Charles "Preacher" Roe, a standout for the Dodgers in the late 1940s and early 1950s, passed away Sunday. He was 93 according to Baseball-Reference.com, 92 according to his official website.

CC Sabathia hadn't made a start on three days' rest in seven years until this past September 20. That was the first of four consecutive times he did so at the close of the Brewers' season. After throwing 99 pitches on September 16, he threw 105 on the 20th, 108 on September 24, 122 (spread over nine innings) on September 28, and then in the playoffs, 98 pitches in only 3 2/3 innings October 2. That last start is the only hint that fatigue might have caught up with Sabathia.

In the regular season, Sabathia broke the 120-pitch mark five times, never in consecutive starts. His high was 130 pitches on on August 18, and he had five days off after that game. This link shows Sabathia's career game log, organized by most pitches thrown.

Sabathia's only other career start on three days' rest came on October 7, 2001. After cruising through 59 pitches in only five innings on October 3, Sabathia threw 71 on October 7. Sabathia was 20 at the time, capping a rookie season in which he posted an adjusted ERA of 102 in 180 1/3 innings. By comparison, 20-year-old Clayton Kershaw had an adjusted ERA of 100 in 107 2/3 major-league innings for the Dodgers in 2008 (he also threw 61 2/3 innings in the minors with a 1.91 ERA).

Though he carried a significant workload at age 20 and his innings count increased by 16 percent the following season to 210, Sabathia didn't surpass that total until he was 27 (in 2007).

In the past six years, 42 major-league pitchers have averaged at least 150 innings a season with a league-average adjusted ERA (100). Only 10 of those have managed pitch at least 150 innings with a 100 ERA+ in five of six individual seasons during that time, and just four - Johan Santana, Brandon Webb, Carlos Zambrano and CC Sabathia (all of them currently under the age of 30) - have done so in all six.

Put simply, if you sign a free-agent pitcher to a six-year contract, you can pretty much guarantee that at least one of those seasons will be a disappointment. No pitcher above the age of 30 since 2003 has avoided a season that was a clunker in some way. That doesn't mean you can't give a pitcher such a long-term deal. It just means you need to be prepared for it. It means you need to budget dead weight into your payroll, or just accept that that year, your team is going to be struggling.

Pitchers With At Least 900 Innings Since 2003

Name	Current Age	150 IP Seasons	100 ERA+ Seasons	Both	Overall ERA+
Johan Santana	29	6	6	6	156
Brandon Webb	29	6	6	6	143
Roy Halladay	31	5	6	5	140
Roy Oswalt	31	5	6	5	136
Carlos Zambrano	27	6	6	6	132
CC Sabathia	28	6	6	6	129
Jake Peavy	27	6	4	4	126
Ben Sheets	30	4	5	3	125
Tim Hudson	33	5	5	4	124
Mark Buehrle	29	6	5	5	119
Randy Johnson	45	4	5	3	118
Danny Haren	28	4	4	4	117
Josh Beckett	28	5	5	4	116
John Lackey	30	6	4	4	116
Andy Pettitte	36	5	5	4	114
Bronson Arroyo	31	5	5	4	113
Derek Lowe	35	6	5	5	113
Mike Mussina	39	6	3	3	110
Brad Penny	30	4	5	4	109
Doug Davis	33	4	5	3	109
Jake Westbrook	31	4	5	3	108
Javier Vazquez	32	6	3	3	107
Ted Lilly	32	5	5	5	107
Dontrelle Willis	26	5	4	4	107
Barry Zito	30	6	4	4	107
Aaron Harang	30	5	3	3	106
Freddy Garcia	33	4	3	3	106
Tim Wakefield	42	5	6	5	106
Cliff Lee	30	4	3	3	105
Jon Garland	29	6	4	4	105
Kenny Rogers	43	5	4	3	105
Tom Glavine	42	5	3	3	104
Greg Maddux	42	6	4	4	104
Jamie Moyer	45	6	3	3	103
Jeff Suppan	33	6	4	4	103
Gil Meche	30	4	2	2	102
Livan Hernandez	33	6	3	3	102
Jose Contreras	36	4	4	3	101
Miguel Batista	37	4	5	4	101
Jarrod Washburn	34	5	2	2	101
Brett Myers	28	5	3	2	101
Kevin Millwood	33	5	2	2	100

Given the inherent risk in signing Sabathia, who will be seeking a contract of about six years, how concerned should the Dodgers be that Manny Ramirez will not perform at the tail end of his next contract, however long it is? Since the team should be confident that Ramirez will produce in the early years, is there any reason to let the semi-inevitable crash deter the Dodgers from signing him when it's just like signing a premier pitcher in his prime? If he makes the team an automatic World Series contender in the near future, is there any reason not to accept that down the road he might turn into a sunk cost?

These are questions that I'm currently mulling. I can see arguments for pursuing Sabathia, Ramirez or neither. I say this knowing that Manny will never have a full season like the two months he had with the Dodgers in 2008.

But one thing I feel confident about is that I'm not afraid of the risk if the Dodgers and their fans prepare for it. I'm not afraid of a rebuilding year, whether it's in 2013 or 2009. I just want there to be a plan. I am fine with the Dodgers telling me that they're going to sign one of the best players in the game and that if he doesn't perform, the team will suffer that year.

Ten months ago, I thought Andruw Jones would help the Dodgers in 2008, so you don't have to listen to me. Jones offers a cautionary tale when it comes to Ramirez, just as Jason Schmidt or any number of pitchers offer a warning when it comes to Sabathia, or on a lesser scale, Ben Sheets or whomever. On the other hand, I do think the Dodgers do have a solid enough core that in the years Ramirez or Sabathia stay healthy, those could be fantastic years for Los Angeles.

If you don't make the giant free-agent plunge, what do you do? Obviously, you stay away from the Juan Pierres and Brett Tomkos. You need to be sure that the players you pursue are true contributors, otherwise you're just throwing money away. As far as I'm concerned, the Pierre signing is still a bigger mistake than the Jones signing, because Pierre had no potential to boost the team. None. I'll accept any well-intentionedreasoned failure over a safe waste of time.

Tony Jackson of the Daily News has posted the long transcript of an interview that Scott Boras gave XM Satellite's Chuck Wilson today.

For those of you who usually make it to Dodger Stadium, how much do you think the struggling economy will affect your spending plans on Dodger tickets next season, if at all?

The Dodgers have paid Brad Penny $2 million for the right to avoid paying him another $7 million. They have declined their contract option on Penny for the 2009 season, according to Tony Jackson of the Daily News.

The question remains how interested the Dodgers should be in signing Penny at a lesser price. In his Dodger career, Penny had a 4.07 ERA in 678 2/3 innings, striking out 6.1 batters while allowing less than one homer per nine innings. As recently as 2007, Penny posted an ERA of 3.03 and pitched in his second consecutive All-Star game. He is only 30 years old. His poor 2008 can largely be explained away by injury. But will Penny recover?

Here's the take of Dodger Thoughts commenter 68elcamino427:

The muscles in the back of his shoulder are shot. Velocity with no control. He had plenty of time off this season to see if time would heal.

This is why I feel the the $7 million "bargain" is more like lighting the money on fire by giving it to Penny.

Pretty persuasive stuff - although I don't know how sure we are that "the muscles in the back of his shoulder are shot." Penny's longest stretch between appearances last season was 54 days. That might not be enough time to consign Penny to the dustheap. It's hard for me to give up on a pitcher after one injury-plagued season, especially one who, despite a declining strikeout rate, had been effective more often than not.

There's a price that I would willingly pay for Penny's return. However, I suspect that price probably wouldn't be what Penny or his agent would expect, because I don't know how much better is Penny likely to be than a journeyman pitcher over the course of an entire season.

The Dodgers' current starting rotation is Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda, Clayton Kershaw, James McDonald and, unless Hong-Chih Kuo or Scott Elbert come out of the bullpen or Jason Schmidt out of unlimber limbo, Eric Stults. Although I think the talent is there, and that Stults is underrated as a back-of-the-rotation candidate, the team needs more depth. Penny is an option that should be considered - one option of many.

In a bit of a turnabout, the 2008 Dodgers ranked in baseball's top 10 in defense based on one measure, David Pinto's tongue-twisting Probabilistic Model of Range at Baseball Musings.

Basically, for each fieldable (non-inside-the-park home runs) ball put in play, six parameters are used to determine how difficult it was to field the ball. A probability of turning the ball into an out is calculated, and those probabilities are summed. That gives us expected batted balls turned into outs. We turn that into a predicted DER (defensive efficiency record), compare that to the actual DER and calculate a ranking. ...

Note that a team can post a poor DER during the season, but do well in this model if the balls put into play were extremely difficult to field. ...

Basically, Pinto's system finds that the Dodgers performed better than expected on the balls in play against them. The Mets, for example, had a higher DER, but mainly as a result of an easier group of balls to field.

Over the coming weeks, Pinto will break down individual performances so that we can see where the strengths of the Dodger defense were under his system.

Dodger general manager Ned Colletti has quashed the nonsensical rumors that the Dodgers were looking to trade Russell Martin, putting an end to a theoretical conversation that went something like this:

"Martin tends to slump in the second half of the season."
"He plays a lot of games. He probably needs more rest."
"I hear he also enjoys the nightlife."
"Hmm. I don't know if that's true, but if it is, then he really needs more rest."
"So, we'll make sure he gets more rest next season."
"Sounds simple enough. No - wait - let's trade him."
"Cool!"

In the Dodger Thoughts world view, no one is ever off the trading table. You could have the best player in the world, but if there's a deal that somehow improves your team, go ahead and make it.

But the idea that the Dodgers would actively seek to unload a catcher whose only problem would appear to be, frankly, that he hasn't been able to sit still ... this just never made any sense.

* * *

As for Martin's need to rest ... I'll take this opportunity to question the conventional wisdom. Even three seasons into his career, we still don't really know what Martin's rest needs are.

In 2007, Martin's highest OPS for a month came in the dog days of August.

In 2008, a well-rested Martin had about 80 plate appearances in a month of Spring Training, skipped the China trip - then began the season 3 for 29.

It's true that Martin only hit three home runs in the second half of the 2008 season. But second-half slumps aren't limited to everyday catchers. They happen to ballplayers of every ilk.

If I were the Dodgers, yes, in 2009 I'd make an effort to rest Martin more in the first half of the season. It seems like a logical path. But I'd keep in mind that there's no guarantee this will make Martin a more effective player. The damage the rest does to his productive first halves, in terms of time missed, could outweigh the gains it provides to his second halves.

All I'm saying is that we just don't know. Let's feel free to form hypotheses. Let's keep gathering information. And we'll go from there.

Scott Boras told Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via FoxSports.com) that Greg Maddux has all but decided to rest on his considerable laurels.

"He hasn't made a final decision, but for now it is doubtful he will play (any longer)," Boras said at the GM Meetings. "As it stands now, he is not going to play."

Many of us (though perhaps not Rick Honeycutt) wonder: Will Maddux be the Dodgers' pitching coach someday?

This thread will be dedicated to nonpartisan news and discussion of Election Day. We've done this once or twice before and it went mostly without incident. My approach toward allowing or deleting comments might be somewhat malleable, but here is the main rule: No cheering nor booing in the press box nor in the stands. I don't want to know whom you're rooting for or against. But obviously, I know that this election is on the mind of many in this community, and I hope that I can provide a calm place for chatting about it.

All regular Dodger Thoughts discussion should continue in the most active thread. As of this writing, that's the thread below this one.

Here's a topic to kick things off: I'm still upset that voters-by-mail don't get "I voted" stickers.

The idea of a neutral-site World Series has gained momentum like, well, like a bad idea rolling downhill. This weekend, Bob Timmermann offered an opposing viewpoint at The Griddle that I support.

My own thoughts? With a sound policy on rain (or snow) delays, there's no need at all to move to a neutral site. Don't want to play in the rain? Then don't play in the rain. Wait until the rain stops. The problem in the 2008 World Series wasn't with Philadelphia, it was with the various people determined to try to ignore the inevitable.

Does it really matter that Game 5 finished two days later than intended? If your choice is finishing the World Series on time or letting fans see their teams in their hometowns, do we really need to think hard about which is more important?

If baseball were to make a move toward a neutral-site World Series without doing anything to ensure games start and finish earlier so that more people can enjoy them, that would strike a new blow for disingenuousness.

* * *

Jamey Newberg (via Baseball Musings) writes about the success of Greg Maddux's older brother, ex-Dodger Mike Maddux, as a pitching coach. Mike is bound for Texas. Food-for-thought for those interested in the Dodgers retaining Greg as a player-coach.