Wow. For anyone - forget whom for a moment - to do this amazes me. Head is still shaking back and forth. How would one respond?

As someone told me today, "Rehab is for quitters."

Public introspection from Frank McCourt. Who saw this coming?

From MLB.com, once more with feeling:

"We need to do a better job communicating with our fans and letting them know what our thinking is and what we're doing," he said. "The choices we made were in the best interests in the short and long term, but we could have done a better job bringing the fans with us. It's part of the learning process and I take responsibility."

And, in the same article, tangential introspection from Jeff Kent:

"As old as I am [37 next week], I had the jitters," said Kent, who will bat cleanup. "I'm excited to be here and I'm trying to make friends and make a good impression. I want them to know, even though I've got a locker stuck in the corner, it doesn't mean I shouldn't be talked to."

Eric Gagne sprained the medial collateral ligament of his left knee playing pepper and will have an MRI on Friday, according to Ken Gurnick at MLB.com.

While we use the cautious optimism that the injury is not severe to soothe us ...

Trainer Stan Johnston said even a mild sprain would take six weeks to heal 100 percent, but depending on MRI results Gagne's baseball activity might only be limited for "maybe a week." Gagne was examined by Dr. David Schafer, a fellow at the Kerlan-Jobe Clinic.

... anyone else impressed that in major leaguers are playing pepper in the 21st century? I guess that's what happens when you don't have those "No Pepper" signs around anymore.

(That last sentence will sort out the young from the old.)

This Associated Press story explains the visa problems that have prevented Norihiro Nakamura from reporting to Vero Beach:

While players with major league contracts are eligible for P-1 visas, the category that includes internationally recognized athletes, those with minor league contracts must obtain an H-2B visa from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services.

USCIS announced on Jan. 3 that the H-2B cap of 66,000 visas in this fiscal year, a figure established by Congress, had been reached and no more visas in that category were available.

Presumably, they will figure out how to work around this, but no indication is given of the mechanics that will involve. Perhaps someone else can shed more insight. (No, I'm not making the phone call.)

Great story here. Call me ignorant - or precociously progressive - but I didn't know Dodger prospect Ryan Ketchner was deaf. Ken Gurnick has the feature on MLB.com:

Jim Colborn, the Dodgers' multilingual pitching coach, was addressing his flock the other day when he caught the eye of Ryan Ketchner across the clubhouse.

Colborn and Ketchner had yet to meet, but the coach knew what he needed to know. He stopped talking, but suddenly spoke unexpected volumes. Using sign language he learned while growing up with a deaf best friend, Colborn spelled out: "Hi Ryan. My name is Jim, the ace pitching coach."

"That was awesome," said Ketchner, who was born virtually deaf. "It will be cool when I get to the Major Leagues. He doesn't have to come to the mound. He can communicate to me from the dugout with signs."

Is Colborn sort of like baseball's MacGyver? He just seems to pull these tricks - language tricks, anyway - out of nowhere. And you have to love how Colborn calls himself "ace pitching coach" - in sign language, no less. It's all about the details.

Dodger general manager Paul DePodesta acquired Ketchner, a 22-year-old lefty, at the end of Spring Training last year in exchange for Jolbert Cabrera. Ketchner averaged more than a strikeout per inning in the minors from 2000-2003, with excellent control. Once he recovers from elbow surgery, Ketchner will be trying to become the majors' first deaf pitcher in nearly a century, Gurnick writes.

Two kids want to play center field.

The parents will choose.

The kid who isn't chosen will adjust. Because deep down, they're both good kids.

It's not a big deal.

Headlines like this ...

Again at Center of Controversy
Bradley dictates where he will play

... are sensationalistic.

Can you believe I forgot about this? Dodger Thoughts reader BigCPA reminded me. Read Paul DePodesta's response to Big's question about Joel Guzman, and more ...

Earliest piece of news: touting Buddy Carlyle, Ryan Rupe, and Scott Erickson as starting pitching prospects if someone goes down. For the most part, this chat reads like public relations more than anything probing. Few hard questions or hard answers.

Update: It's a lefthander's perogative to change his mind. Wilson Alvarez is angling to start again, according to Ken Gurnick at MLB.com.

Meanwhile, people continue to fall in love with Erickson. Dodger pitching coach Jim Colburn is the latest swooning.

"I can tell [Erickson] is 100 percent committed. He came ready," Colborn told Gurnick. "His intensity is high and that speaks volumes about his desire. He's primed and ready to go."

Here comes the stuff I like. Spring Training. Back out on the field with stories of hopeful rebirth. Let's get out on some freshly mown grass, close our eyes, lean back, feel the morning sun on our faces and breathe again.

Certainly thought I'd be the first on All-Baseball.com to write that Ozzie Smith's son was one of the final 24 on American Idol (the resemblance is there). Since I'm not, here is a small sampling from the thousands of stories going around baseball at the approach of March.

Brad Penny - so rushing to get ready last September, so pacing himself now.

Hideo Nomo - trying to score one for the value of time and change of scenery. Paul Shuey too. Sometimes it seems like teams are only interested in paying the medical bills before then letting the competition reap the benefits. But these guys do have a lot to prove - there is probably no next stop for them. Meanwhile, coming our direction ...

Paul Shuey : Tom Martin :: assistant general manager Roy Smith : Scott Erickson

Pedro Astacio - Dodger Thoughts hero - believing like Holly Marie Combs, Alyssa Milano and Shannen Doherty/Rose McGowan in the Power of Three:

In Texas, Astacio is reunited with Chan Ho Park and Orel Hershiser, who were teammates of his during his time with the Dodgers (1992-97). Park is trying to remain in the Rangers rotation and Hershiser is now Rangers pitching coach.

"Chan Ho is my buddy and I have so much respect for Orel," Astacio said. "I feel like this is the second time Orel is my pitching coach. He was always helping me with the Dodgers. This is a great situation for me."

Eric Karros - taking on official retirement with an ESPN commentator job. As edgy and inexperienced a broadcaster as he is, and as little as the Dodgers need to tenure another former local hero in their booth, I have the feeling that Karros will flourish in his new calling. The further he gets from the Dodgers and that history, the more effective he'll be.

Robb Nen, connected to Penny this weekend by virtue of having been identified with the same nerve injury as the Dodger starter, 12 years earlier, now faces retirement after rolling the dice on his career - and losing - in a manner that deserves to become a minor legend in San Francisco:

Nen, 35, amassed 314 career saves, 13th on the all-time list, and made three All-Star teams. He was still at the peak of his powers midway through the '02 season when he decided to continue pitching despite a rotator-cuff injury that the training staff privately told him at the time was career-threatening.

The Giants made it to the World Series that year, thanks in part to seven postseason saves by Nen, before losing to the Anaheim Angels. Nen has yet to throw a big-league pitch since, enduring a frustrating comeback effort that several times has allowed him to sustain a 90 mph fastball, if only for a day.

Steve Finley - older than these other fellows but not nearly ready to retire - just trying to focus on the field after a scary offseason:

On Jan. 23, shortly after beginning her ninth month of pregnancy, Finley's wife was hit in the face by a line drive while attending her son's Little League game in Del Mar, Calif.

Amy Finley suffered a broken nose, but when doctors couldn't stem the bleeding, they were forced to induce labor, some 3 1/2 weeks before her due date. Amy gave birth to a daughter, Sophia, on Jan. 26 <97> the same day Steve Finley's 61-year-old father, Howard, underwent quadruple bypass surgery in Kentucky.

"That's not a three weeks I'd wish on anybody," said Finley, the former Dodger who signed a two-year, $14-million deal with the Angels in December. "It was scary because I was worried about my wife and the baby. Then, the day after she got hit, we found out my dad needed open-heart surgery."

Amy Finley was hospitalized for 10 days and still suffers from fatigue and light nosebleeds, but the baby is fine. Howard Finley's recovery is going well.

Odalis Perez - another scare recipient, hoping to prove that it wasn't nerves or declining strikeout ability that sabotaged him in the 2004 playoffs, but stress over his mother's emergency cancer surgery. Hoping even more that his mother's recovery continues.

I know the conventional wisdom is that you're not supposed to make excuses, but sometimes I'd like to hear them. I'd rather know that Odalis Perez is hurting mentally, or Shawn Green or Hideo Nomo is hurting physically.

Norihiro Nakamura - already rolling an expensive set of dice on his career, with time to break open the hourglass and examine each grain of sand while he waits for a visa that will allow him to begin competing for a job. "It could be several days before he reports," Dodger manager Jim Tracy told Tony Jackson of the Daily News.

And finally, the daughter of demon-chased former Dodger farmhand and Padre basestealer Alan Wiggins, Stanford freshman guard Candice Wiggins, is the leading scorer on the second-ranked Cardinal, averaging 17.4 points per game. Kelli Anderson profiled the just-turned-18-year-old in Sports Illustrated last month:

... there is one challenge in her life that she doesn't see as a competition, a puzzle that she may never finish: getting to know her late father, former major leaguer Alan Wiggins. At 32 and with a history of drug abuse, he died from complications of AIDS on Jan. 6, 1991 -- a month shy of Candice's fourth birthday. "I feel I know him so well, yet I don't really have any idea who he was," says Wiggins. "It's sort of a life quest, to get as much of a picture of him as I can."

How serious some of these stories are. Don't be surprised to hear this from me, but I'm invested - although I lean heavily on statistics in player analysis, my personal attachment to the game is very much involved in the backstories of the players ...

It<92>s all about backstories. The Pedros have backstories. Kevin Brown has a backstory. Hiram Bocachica has a backstory. Jackie Robinson and Babe Ruth - all-time backstories. All the teams, from the Dodgers to the Devil Rays to the 1899 Cleveland Spiders, have backstories. The sport as a whole has its own collective backstory. And then, when these actors take the field - either at the ballpark in front of you, or on television, or in a book or newspaper clipping, you have all this set-up to appreciate the significance of everything they do.

Baseball is a stage, a movie set, a comic-book world in which all these characters enter and exit and live and die. As you begin to care about one character and watch his journey, it snowballs and you begin to care about others upon others. It is not waxing mystical or fantastical to say that it is a world filled with drama and comedy and exhilaration and heartbreak. It just is - in a deeper, more evolved sense than any movie honestly can ever offer.

What a movie offers <85> for better or worse, is that it ends. Baseball doesn<92>t.

Yes, the ballplayers make more money and probably have less trouble getting a date than most of us, but they still dream and hurt and grieve and hope. If talent in sport gives these players encourages us to pay an undue amount of attention, at least sometimes we know it isn't wasted.

The good news is, we've already had the best story of all this spring: After five months, Detroit pitcher Ugueth Urbina's mother was recently rescued from her kidnappers.

Harbinger away.

Sources: Los Angeles Times, Tampa Tribune, MLB.com, The Associated Press, Los Angeles Daily News, San Jose Mercury News, Sports Illustrated

Manny Mota and Felix Jose

Roy Campanella

Eric Karros, Pedro Martinez

Pedro Martinez

Darryl Strawberry, warming up for a .140 season

Photos, such as they are, (c) 1993-2005, Jon Weisman

Had to get that headline out of the way. ... Anyway, two new pieces give thumbs up to the Dodgers' acquisition of Derek Lowe.

One, by the talented Fourth Outfielder you love seeing in the lineup, Tom Meagher, comes at the end of an exhaustive analysis for The Hardball Times of Dodger Stadium park effects. Remember when they used to call these Gleeman-length pieces? I think the torch has been passed.

Meagher also writes that the addition of new seats along the Dodger Stadium foul lines is not likely to have much of an effect on its pitchers' park status:

Using my normalization model, I found that Dodger Stadium would have a park factor of about .92 if there were no foul outs recorded whatsoever. That<92>s clearly a figure in need of salt, as I imagine having no foul ground would impact the pitcher-batter confrontation in other ways. What that really measures is what things would look like if every foul ball was dropped.

The second article, by freelance writer Phil Allard (thanks to Baseball Musings for posting it), chronicles how Lowe is a pitcher of extremes - most of the time, good extremes:

Lowe has spent the bulk of his time being a 2.65 ERA pitcher <97> which is tremendous and worthy of the Cy Young award consideration. He has done this in a superior offensive league with the DH, and he has often done it without a good infield defense.

Now Lowe is going to a pitcher<92>s park, with a shortstop (Cesar Izturis) that has a favorable UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating), along with a second sacker (Jeff Kent) that is slightly above average in UZR according to TangoTiger<92>s weighted analysis. That is a sweet recipe for Lowe. Pencil him in for 21-7 this year, with a 3.06 ERA, and I think I am being conservative.

In a sense, coming to the Dodgers will reduce the chances of Bad Lowe appearing. That's the theory, anyway.

And now, for some gossip ... there's this.

Beat writers with blogs. Life just got more interesting.

On the plus side, the more information the merrier, especially if it's entertaining and informative, as this new blog by Cincinnati Reds beat writer Marc Lancaster of the Cincinnati Post might turn out to be. (News learned from The Red Reporter via Baseball Musings.)

Lancaster's doesn't figure to be the last beat writer blog we see. Rather, it's probably a sign of something that has become inevitable as blogs evolve from a medium derided to a medium respected. (Heck - bloggers might even get to go to jail for concealing a source, just like grownups.)

Like Blockbuster aping Netflix, the big boys have discovered value in what the little guy is doing.

With the access and time available to them, unconstrained by space limits in the printed version of the paper, beat writers with blogs can produce some good stuff. It won't change the world, but two paragraphs of Lancaster's entry today illustrated the potential.

Healthy position players don't have to report until Monday, but Adam Dunn strolled through the door this morning. Not long after, Dunn expressed mock dismay that in the brief time he'd been in camp he'd seen Graves run on a treadmill, then go play catch with Eric Milton.

"They said I was fat," said Graves. "And fat guys can't get people out ..."

If people like Lancaster combine insider anecdotes with any amount of thoughtful analysis, their blogs will be huge hits.

Newspaper blogging will make it harder for those on the outside. Potential new readers will discover the newspaper blogs first, providing them the extra sustenance that independent bloggers otherwise could have. That makes it more difficult for outsiders to grow an audience. That in turn will slow the progress for those hoping that blogging will cease to be a largely volunteer endeavor.

Right now, independent bloggers blog for the love of it. And readers read for the worth of it - no one reads out of charity or pity. There is value in the outside perspective, away from the newspaper confines, as long as that independence isn't abused. And there is value in being experienced with blogging, which after all is a unique medium with its own idiosyncrasies to master.

But if blogging has been a new frontier of communication, staked out at first by individuals on foot, look out - because here come the big covered wagons. Bloggers are going to have to work ever harder to hold on to their claims.

Update: Mark Cuban - that's right, Mark Cuban - writes that it's in the establishment's Machiavellian interest to credential bloggers. Keep your enemies closer and all that. Thanks to Will Carroll for pointing it out.

Like poets commissioned to write a series of odes to a flat tire, the Times headline writers braved the ongoing stalemate between National Hockey League owners and players.

Talk about creating a show about nothing:

February 4: NHL Labor Talks to Continue
February 5: Deal Makers Talk of Deal Breakers
February 5: NHL Has a Hunch Union Will Bend
February 8: Union Says NHL Players' Solidarity Intact
February 9: NHL Is Taking a Final Shot
February 10: NHL Sets Alarm Clock
February 11: NHL Season Is Closer to Point of No Return
February 12: Deadline No Help to NHL Stalemate
February 13: Insider Talks Yield Little for NHL
February 14: A Late Bid to Break the Ice
February 15: NHL Talks Appear Frozen
February 16: NHL Season on Brink
February 16: Game Off! NHL Cancels Season

That's a sad story. My condolences to the hockey community. Hooray for Spring Training ... you can't take playing ball for granted these days.

For all the grief that Hee Seop Choi has endured in his brief Dodger career, Jose Valentin has gotten off easy.

Not that Valentin has been greeted with any kind of excitement. In fact, the most favorable reactions have ranged from cautious optimism about him as a platoon player to simple tepidity. But the acid rain that fell on Choi for his two months of .531 OPS (against a career average of .785, an average that has risen each year of his short career) has missed scarring Valentin.

The 35-year-old shortstop, in fact, has a career OPS (.773) lower than Choi's and tracking downward each of the past four seasons. In particular, Valentin had a post-All Star Game OPS in 2004 of .618 that, amazingly, virtually matched the much-derided Choi's (.616) - if it wasn't worse, given the park factors involved.

A left-handed hitter, Valentin performed better against right-handed pitchers in 2004 (.801 OPS vs. righties, .666 vs. lefties), a difference that is even more profound if you include the past three years (.838/.530). The same logic that tells you it rained because you washed your car might lead you to believe that Valentin's second-half decline in 2004 came because his team, the Chicago White Sox, overplayed him against left-handed pitchers.

Sadly, that's not the case. Here are Valentin's statistics from July 1, 2004 through the end of the season:

Vs.        AB      Hits    2B      HR      RBI     BB      SO  BA  OBP SLG     OPS
RHP     153     24      3       7       13      15      44  .157        .244 .314    .558
LHP     75      13      3       6       12      6       27  .173        .234 .453    .687
Total   228     37      6       13      25      21      71  .162        .241 .360    .601

(Thanks to David Pinto of Baseball Musings for helping me get these figures. A blurb by Brendan Roberts at The Sporting News.com triggered my inquiry.)

Valentin was awful every which way - particularly so against right-handed pitching, which the Dodgers are counting on him to face at least at the outset of the 2005 campaign.

As with Choi, you must always take sample size into account while judging a player. On the other hand, Valentin's second-half features more at-bats than Choi had, and it comes attached to a player who has been declining for most of the century.

Perhaps with a fresh start, Valentin will rebound. Or, perhaps he is the hitter's Derek Lowe - someone that general manager Paul DePodesta has figured will take unique advantage of Dodger Stadium. But at a minimum - and some will take this as faint praise, indeed - it's hard to understand why anyone would fret more about Choi than Valentin. If Antonio Perez or Norihiro Nakamura can't pick up the slackity slack, the Dodgers might have a bigger offensive gap at third base than they even appear to have at catcher. Certainly, the Dodgers appear better off at first base than they do at third.

Last season, while many in the national press excorciated the Dodgers for their midseason moves during the pennant race, sportswriters tended to ignore the Padres' trade deadline performance.

Among other issues, San Diego No. 5 starters won zero games in the season's final two months after the team traded Ismael Valdez to Florida. Certainly, that made a difference as the Padres finished six games behind the National League West champion Dodgers.

Heading into 2005, San Diego may boast a Cy Young candidate, but do the Padres have enough to fill out their rotation?

San Diego's Top Seven:

Jake Peavy: Giants fans have reason to be excited about their 24-year-old prospect, Noah Lowry, who pitched 92 above-average innings last season. Padre patriots in Petco proper can truly drool over Peavy, who turns 24 in May. In a season marred only by a stay on the disabled list, from which he emerged in fine form, Peavy won the NL ERA title at 2.27, striking out more than a batter per inning. Questions: Can he continue to prevent the ball from leaving the park? From 2003-2004, he cut his home runs allowed per inning in half. And what kind of regression might Peavy be headed for considering that his dERA (his park- and defense-adjusted ERA) was a full run higher than his actual ERA, as Jacob Luft posted on SI.com. Answers: Even if Peavy falters, the division might still not have a better pitcher.

Woody Williams: Has this guy had an underrated career? A 28th-round draft pick in 1988, he didn't reach the majors until age 26, but then posted an ERA+ of 99 or better (with 100 as the league average) in all 12 of his seasons. After missing about half the season in 2002, he threw 220 2/3 innings in 2003 and 189 2/3 innings in 2003 (for St. Louis). At age 38, his 2004 strikeout rate was better than any Padre starter except Peavy. And he's a career .213 hitter. And he only makes $3.5 million (plus incentives) in 2005. And yet, having given Williams due credit, with all that going for him, Williams has only been average or a sliver better in three of his past four seasons. A solid addition - but perhaps nothing more.

Brian Lawrence: Lawrence has pitched more than 200 innings each of the past three seasons - but with an ERA of 4.00 over that time, they've been more utilitaran than exceptional. Not that, in this era, utilitarian doesn't have value. He turns 29 in May.

Adam Eaton: Eaton went 4-1 with a 2.87 ERA against the Dodgers last season, so you people of Los Angeles are forgiven for cowering in his presence. Overall, Eaton's ERA was 4.61 - his fourth consecutive season worse than the league average. Eaton is 27 and approaching the point where his potential for greatness is expiring - average is a more reasonable goal. His top comparison in baseball history, according to Baseball-Reference.com, is former obscure Dodger Mike Harkey (now a Padres minor league pitching coach). He does have 10 doubles and two home runs as a batter in the past two seasons.

Darrell May: Luft speculates that May's move from Kansas City to San Diego will make him better by reducing his rate of home runs allowed (69 in his last 396 innings). The 32-year-old May's career year came in 2003, when he pitched 210 innings with an ERA+ of 135. Last season, his ERA+ dropped to 79. Luft might be correct, but it's a dicey gamble that may see the Padres turn to the minors by summertime.

Justin Germano: Only 22, Germano got an 8.86 ERA sandblasting in seven appearances (five starts) with the Padres in 2004. But his 3.38 ERA and 98 strikeouts in 122 2/3 innings with AAA Portland keep him in the loop as first alternate.

Chris Oxspring: A 27-year-old Australian, Oxspring has yet to make his MLB debut but has struck out 210 batters in 222 innings over the past two seasons, including 17 starts at Portland in 2004 with a 3.99 ERA.

San Diego enters the season with fewer question marks in its starting rotation than the Dodgers, but one about potential. Best-case scenario is that Peavy wins the Cy Young while his four colleagues churn collectively at a little better than average. Alternatively, the Padres could struggle if the back end of the rotation starts slowly and they are slow to react.

San Diego will need three starts from its No. 5 spot in April. Things will be looking good for the Padres if May wins before May. But just like Los Angeles and San Francisco, San Diego has reasons to hold its breath regarding its starting pitching, too.

Dodger general manager Paul DePodesta is holding a chat on MLB.com at 12 noon. Deconstruct it at your leisure here.

Oops: As Eric Stephen notes below, I read the date wrong. We'll deconstruct on February 22 - in the meantime, consider this an open chat room.

Here's something: Nick Christensen of the Las Vegas Sun looks at the biggest names likely to return to the AAA 51s, including Chin-Feng Chen and Joe Thurston - the Brett Somers and Charles Nelson Reilly of Match Game Las Vegas.

"My job is to give the guys, the Chin-Feng Chens and the Joe Thurstons, something new to show these people. That's what I'm going to do," Las Vegas manager Jerry Royster told Christensen. "That's why I get excited about being a Triple-A manager. As an instructor the last two years, I had so much fun teaching these kids things to do. Now I'm a manager, I can propel them to the major leagues."

But please: Feel free to talk about anything Dodger- or Match Game-related, not just the 51s.

Previous headlines for this open chat: 1) DePodesta Chat Chat, 2) Strike That - Reverse It, 3) Pre-Spring Training Open Chat, 4) Las Vegas 51s Open Chat

While sitting out the Dominican Winter League season to take things easy on his arm, Dodger pitcher Odalis Perez set his sights on how to invest some of his new contract dough, according to Raul Tavares on Dominican Players:

Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Odalis Perez wants a new team, but don't think he wants out of L.A. - he wants to buy Estrellas Orientales in the Dominican Republic.

According to some reports Odalis is offering US$2.5 million for the team and is seeking advice to get into the baseball business.

Estrellas has not won a championship in almost 40 years. The team is located in San Pedro de Macoris, home of Sammy Sosa, Alfonzo Soriano and former players George Bell and Alfredo Griffin among others.

Odalis is supposed to team with other people from San Pedro de Macoris to buy the team. He plays with Estrellas in the winter, but he did not play this season and stayed practicing and resting his left arm to be in shape for spring training.

For more on 2004 Dodger pitchers and their pursuit of team ownership internationally, please see "Forget Eli Broad - Here’s Hideo Nomo!"

Have you been living in fear of the San Francisco Giants' starting pitching?

The Giants have numbers - at least seven pitchers who, at their best, can make a legitimate claim to start on almost any pitching staff in baseball.

They have a big-time pitcher in Jason Schmidt.

But they also have enough questions about age, health and ability to join the Dodgers in a realm of starting pitcher uncertainty - even if they don't realize it yet up in the Bay Area.

San Francisco's Top Seven:

Jason Schmidt: A workhorse's workhorse who occasionally buckles under the strain - last year's 32 starts were his most since 1999 - the 32-year-old righthander saw his ERA rise nearly a run in 2004 but still struck out a career-high 251 batters. Certainly figures again to be one of the top pitchers in the National League West - but he also figures to miss a few starts as well.

Noah Lowry: Kept the Giants breathing down the Dodgers' neck in 2004 by going undefeated in 16 appearances (14 starts), including two complete games. His ERA+ was 116 and he struck out seven batters per nine innings. A 24-year-old lefthander from Pepperdine, he lines up as the Giants second-best starter and someone who matches up favorably against Odalis Perez if the league doesn't figure Lowry out in his sophomore season.

Brett Tomko: Stunned Dodger fans not by pitching well against Los Angeles last season, but by doing so against other major league baseball teams as well. Had an better-than-average ERA for the first time since his 1997 rookie year - and was even stronger in 2004's second half. After allowing 66 home runs in 2002-03, he allowed 19 last season - fewer than one every 10 innings. Turning 32 in April, Tomko may have finally found himself. But the bet here is, with 64 walks against 108 strikeouts for the year, that he will settle in as the right-handed Kirk Rueter - at least, what Rueter used to be (see below).

Jerome Williams: Sunday's San Francisco Chronicle reports that the righthander has had five pain-free bullpen sessions this year, is healed from his 2004 surgery and has lost 22 pounds since last March. That leaves you with a healthy 23-year-old pitcher with an ERA+ of 116 in 260 career innings. He walks more than three batters per nine innings and strikes out fewer than six - not exactly dominant - but this remains a promising pitcher.

Kirk Rueter: The DIPS (Defense-Independent Pitching Statistics) nemesis may finally be heading for his fadeout after posting a 4.73 ERA in 2004 and 56 strikeouts in 190 1/3 innings. He has had two sub-par ERA seasons in a row and three in the past four. Only his name or injuries to others on the Giants' staff should keep him in the rotation for long. Better than Kazuhisa Ishii? Barely, if at all.

Brad Hennessey: The 25-year-old was in Single A ball at the end of 2003, but had a 3.56 ERA with AA Norwich and a 2.02 ERA with AAA Fresno before making seven starts with San Francisco, in which he allowed 15 baserunners per nine innings and a 4.98 ERA.

Jesse Foppert: Another sub-25 Giants starting candidate, Foppert recovered from Tommy John surgery most of last season, after a below-average 2003 debut. He made nine starts in the minors toward the end of the year, and the Marin Independent-Journal reports that he played winter ball in Puerto Rico as well. Could start the season in the bullpen or AAA.

Put it all together, and San Francisco's strengths are that they have one ace, one young pitcher who appears to have arrived, a veteran of decent quality and a second young propsect on the mend. On the down side, the remaining three candidates are a veteran on the decline and two propspects who may not be ready to excel in 2005.

The Giants will have plenty of arms to throw at the competition in 2005, but it's not the most intimidating group. The main advantage that San Francisco has over the Dodgers is that the health of its rotation is less uncertain. Should Brad Penny recover from his nerve problem, however, you have:

Jason Schmidt vs. Brad Penny
Noah Lowry vs. Odalis Perez
Brett Tomko vs. Jeff Weaver
Jerome Williams vs. Derek Lowe
Kirk Rueter vs. Kazuhisa Ishii
Brad Hennessey/Jesse Foppert vs. Edwin Jackson et al

Neither team is be a lock to win more games with its starting pitching than the other.

Coming soon: San Diego's starting rotation

Skim and you could miss it, but in the middle of Ken Gurnick's Dodger Spring Training preview on MLB.com is the first vote of confidence in the ability of Hee Seop Choi ability to play everyday, as opposed to platooning, that I've seen in a while.

"Maybe people misinterpret our expectations," Dodger general manager Paul DePodesta told Gurnick. "He doesn't need to be spectacular. If he does on a collective basis what he did in 2004 (15 home runs, 46 RBIs), we'll be in great shape. People don't realize he's only 25 and that was his first full Major League season. He gets on base. In the minor leagues, he hit left-handed pitching. We just need to take advantage of what we know he does best."

The comments are particularly interesting in light of the recent signing of Norihiro Nokamura, who with Olmedo Saenz will challenge Choi for at-bats against lefties.

In his entire major-league career, managers have given Choi just over 70 plate appearances against left-handed pitching. He has four singles, two doubles, a home run, 11 walks and three hit-by-pitches, for an OPS of .507, compared to .814 against right-handed pitching.

So this is not to say the other options against lefties won't prove better than Choi, but only that Choi has not been given enough of a chance. Jason Romano, of all people, has as many plate appearances against lefties in his career as Choi. Shouldn't Choi get more of a shot than that?

Choi turns 26 in five weeks.

The Dodgers have taken a step forward with their 2005 marketing campaign, which steers away from an emphasis on the experience in the stands - a valid approach that had grown tired - toward an emphasis on the players and appreciation of the sport on the field.

Almost a year ago, I addressed the strengths and weaknesses of the 2004 "Bob Bobblehead" campaign:

It’s easy to see how the Dodgers came up with the idea. For a few years now, with no playoff games and few folk heroes for potential consumers to latch onto, the Dodgers have been selling the experience of going to the ballpark. They’ve been selling the hot dogs and foam fingers, rather than the competition. They’ve incorporated players like Eric Gagne into the ads, but in a fashion that indicates that it’s not whether you win or lose, it’s how you attend the game.

Given the perceived disappointment in the Dodger W-L column, the approach has made sense. Add in the fact that in-stadium giveaways attract crowds in much greater numbers than a longshot chase for the wild-card, and you can see why the Dodgers cut out the chase and made the Bobbleheads, rather than the Gagnes, the marketing department’s protagonists.

No doubt, the Dodgers have researched where the tipping point is - at what point you have so many giveaways that they become self-defeating. But they don’t appear to have reached that tipping point yet.

If there is a flaw in this approach, it’s that your team becomes less like a baseball team and more like an amusement park. It’s about good times - and people love good times - but it’s not about passion.

The new approach isn't completely about passion, though I'm interested in seeing what future television ads convey. It's more about history. But it's about a very special history, one that can't be found anywhere else.

Now, no doubt, the Dodgers would rather have a better left-handed link after Sandy Koufax and Fernando Valenzuela than talented but combustible Odalis Perez, but after Eric Gagne (who appears in another ad, I understand), there aren't that many to choose from. At the same time, they can adjust the campaign after the season starts, once hot players emerge and the fans are more acquainted with the many newcomers.

As for the much-discussed aspect of the campaign that it appears designed to counter the Angels' attempts to infiltrate Los Angeles, well ...

The Dodgers say their campaign precedes the Angels' decision to change their team name to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. However, we know that the Angels had been thinking of a name change since at least last summer. It's hard to imagine the Dodgers and their ad agency, Dailey & Associates, weren't taking this possibility into account as they plotted their 2005 course.

Even if it were in response to the Angels' name change, why shouldn't it be? While there's certainly room for two teams in the area's largest city/county/region, while conceivably the Angels could even take over Los Angeles in years to come if everything breaks their way, the fact is that L.A. baseball for the past 40 years really has been about the Dodgers. I don't see any reason why the Dodgers should feel bad for asserting this - and I say this as someone much more amused than bothered by the Angels tortured name.

Overall, in contrast to some of the changes we've seen in Dodger Stadium in the past year, this is an ad campaign that has appeal for both the old and new fan. It doesn't sell anyone out. And I like that.

I still think nothing sells baseball like drama. I'm amazed how little team marketers have used great game action over the years. Put together a montage of such moments as a Koufax no-hitter, Rick Monday's home run, Orel Hershiser's 1988 and Gagne closing out a big game, and you've got something nearly irresistable.

Image credit: L.A. Dodgers

Name your favorite year of Dodger baseball in which the team didn't win a World Series.

I'm going with 1985 - the year of Pedro Guerrero's homer-bashing June, a great team that just missed.

(If you look at Baseball-Reference.com, you'll notice that Guerrero did not lead the Dodgers in games played at any of his five defensive positions in '85 - yet posted an OPS+ of 181. This might have been the greatest utility season of all time - at least if good defense was not required.

What a ballplayer Guerrero was. No way Willie McGee should have beaten him for National League Most Valuable Player.

Orel Hershiser also had a season that compares more than favorably with his legendary 1988. In 1985, Hershiser went 19-3 with a 2.03 ERA.

Anyway, it's 1985 for me. What about you?

Here at the intersection of Optimism Boulevard and Bleaker Street, we bring you further discussion of Wednesday's Baseball America article about Dodger prospect Greg Miller (see Update 3 of this posting). I solicited an opinion from baseball medical expert Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus:

Acromioplasty is a tough diagnosis. I'm not sure how they think this is the problem. Obviously, Frank Jobe knows a lot more than I do, but a bony problem like this is either mechanical - something that he's doing and could be fixed - or congenital like a malformed acromion process. If it's congenital, as this article indicates, Miller would have had problems previous to this under normal workload.

There's almost no track record for comebacks from this injury, but there is one: Jaret Wright. He had the surgery in early 2003, came back mid-year, sucked, and lucked into Atlanta. If I were a Dodger fan, I'd be real worried that nothing came of that vaunted pitching system yet.

My reply:

Wow - that's pretty bleak. If Jaret Wright is your best-case scenario ... yikes.

As for the system, well, I guess that's why you want volume rather than just one prospect to bank on. And I think people are giving up on (Edwin) Jackson too quickly.

But basically, do you think Miller's viability as a major leaguer is done?

Carroll's reply:

Done? Well, I would have said Wright was done in '03, but look at him now. I'd say it's in question ...

Just one man's opinion. Use it or lose it. The fact that there is a limited track record for recovery doesn't ensure the end is near. But it's certainly a grimmer interpretation than believing in time and rehab providing a complete cure.

DodgerKid - prone to shun both faith Carroll and in Dodger prospects - what will you do?

The Second Mike Marshall, former outfielder of the Dodgers, was set to be named manager of the El Paso Diablos in the independent Central League today, reports Darren Hunt in the El Paso Times.

Marshall, considered in the early 1980s to be the preeminent Dodger prospect before a solid if not spectacular career analagous to, say ... Tatum O'Neal? Timothy Hutton? Belinda Carlisle? ... has been active in the independent minors since his retirement as a player, according to Hunt. Just turned 45 (can you believe it?), Marshall has been a player-coach with the Schaumburg Flyers, manager-general manager of the Albany-Colonie Diamond Dogs, and Northern League director of baseball operations.

Following a sale of the team, El Paso left the Texas League in November 2004 after 23 seasons. A history of the Central League can be found here.

Update: Here's a story following the official announcement.

Marshall, who has already hired ex-major league hurler Jack Cusack as his pitching coach, describes independent leagues as "kind of the major leagues of minor leagues."

"It's not about pitch counts and a parent club telling you who has to play and who doesn't," he said. "We're out there to win. And major league teams love independent leagues now, because we do their job for them. Half of them are tapping into independent leagues for replacement talent."

Marshall also said, "I'm very serious, very intense. ... I demand a lot from my players," according to this KFOXTV.com brief.

Because of time constraints, analysis of the Baseball America report on the Dodgers' Top 10 Prospects will mostly have to give way to an open chat thread. Just try to remember that the rising players on this list are all too young to bank on, and the falling players on this list are all too young to give up on.

Before you rush to point out how few Dodger prospects have made it over the years, remember that times change. At the same time, we have to wait and see, even on the Joel Guzmans of the world who look so good but might take as long as Adrian Beltre to conquer the world, if that's even in the cards.

Just more of your anti-generalizing, glass-is-both-half-empty-and-half-full proselytizing from Dodger Thoughts!

The list:

1. Joel Guzman, ss
2. Chad Billingsley, rhp
3. Edwin Jackson, rhp
4. James Loney, 1b
5. Andy LaRoche, 3b
6. Russell Martin, c
7. Greg Miller, lhp
8. Blake DeWitt, 3b
9. Jonathan Broxton, rhp
10. Chuck Tiffany, lhp

Best Hitter for Average: Blake DeWitt
Best Power Hitter: Joel Guzman
Best Strike-Zone Discipline: Cory Dunlap
Fastest Baserunner: Jason Repko
Best Athlete: Matt Kemp
Best Fastball: Edwin Jackson
Best Curveball: Chuck Tiffany
Best Slider: Chad Billingsley
Best Changeup: Alfredo Gonzalez
Best Control: Steve Schmoll
Best Defensive Catcher: Russell Martin
Best Defensive Infielder: Ching-Lung Hu
Best Infield Arm: Andy LaRoche
Best Defensive Outfielder: Jason Repko
Best Outfield Arm: Xavier Paul

(Note: There will be a live chat on the Dodger prospects on Baseball America at 11 a.m.)

Nowhere on the Top 10 is Willy Aybar, whom Baseball Prospectus today hinted was the second-best second-base prospect in baseball. However, some discussion on Baseball Primer contends that the Dodgers' Nos. 11-20 prospects could compete with the top 10 of most other teams. Post No. 19 by "CanuckDodger" lists some names for that second 10: Hu, Scott Elbert, Dunlap, Dioner Navarro, Yhency Brazoban (still qualifies as a rookie with only 32 2/3 innings in his career), Delwyn Young, Aybar, Kemp, Julio Pimentel, Joel Hanrahan.

Honestly, if the Dodgers can't get a star or two out of that group of 20, either through performance or through trade ...

Update: Bad news, good news on Greg Miller, according to BA's Alan Matthews:

He had surgery approximately two weeks ago on his shoulder. Why is that good? Because finally a concrete ailment was discovered and Miller had his shoulder scoped to clean it up, hopefully, once and for all. He should begin playing catch in spring training and could be back in a minor league game by June.

Isn't this the kind of thing we should learn about - much sooner - on Dodgers.com?

Update 2: In addition to the above news about Miller, Matthews had some interesting information and opinions to share in his chat. Some other highlights:

Repko has really persevered and is coming off his finest season after going in the first round in 1999. He is the organization's best outfielder and could contribute in a part-time role as soon as this season in L.A.

Chin-Lung Hu and the aformentioned Julio Pimentel are two guys who were on the cusp of the top 10 who have considerable ceilings. Hu has a great glove and can really pick it, but also pleased many scouts with his pop at the plate. Pimentel dominated at times last year at Columbus when he got his breaking ball over for strikes, like the 16-strikeout, seven-inning outing in June versus Rome. His fastball has been clocked as high as 94 mph and sat near 90 with boring action.

Long term, I still like Martin over Navarro, though Navarro is more developed and seasoned as a catcher and should contend for a backup-platoon role in the majors this season.

The Dodgers like (Cody) Ross, and he had a great close to the season last summer. But he's one of those "upside down" guys, who throws left and hits right, which makes it tough to slot him in a lineup, especially with lofty strikeout totals. He's a good defensive player,though not as good as Repko. Ross needs to learn to be more selective at the plate.

Also, the organization made some changes in minor league instructors and will likely adopt a slightly less agressive approach to moving players up, in light of the recent injuries to Miller, (Mike) Megrew and Jose Diaz.

The Dodgers shifted Aybar from third base to second base where his power numbers play better. He is a good athlete and made the adjustments at second base well, though I see him as an extra infielder on a contending big league team. He is ranked in this year's Top 30.

I do not believe [Jackson] will be a "flop." The organization changed his mechaincs and he never looked comfortable last season. He lost his balance over the mound. It looked like Edwin was dragging his arm through and not collapsing at the wasit the same way he was when he soared up the prospect charts in 2003. He is still young and has only been pitching full-time since 2002, so let's not give up on him just yet.

Update 3: Here's an excerpt from John Manuel's Baseball America feature on Miller:

Miller’s first operation was arthroscopic surgery on his left shoulder in March 2004. The Dodgers expected him back by June or July last season. Instead, he missed the whole year. Miller would progress well with his throwing program, long tossing to build up his arm strength, but when he got back on a mound, inflammation and soreness returned in the shoulder. Finally, the Dodgers and Miller found the problem during an MRI exam. The tip of his shoulder blade was shaped in such a way that it was causing the inflammation by rubbing up against tissue in the shoulder.

Surgery was performed to shave down the bone, hopefully precluding further inflammation and giving Miller a chance to get back on the mound pain-free. The procedure technically is known as acromioplasty, the surgical reshaping of the acromion (the tip of the shoulder blade).

The team that hired and then days later fired a manager because of a past that included female harassment and driving under the influence has hired a scout whom another team hired and then days later fired because of a present that included female harrassment and ethnically slurring under the influence.

Wally Backman out, Bill Singer in. The former Dodger pitcher, who has been rehabilitating his career for 15 months since his unfortunate encounter with current Dodger assistant general manager Kim Ng, will be one of the Arizona Diamondbacks' six major league scouts, according to The Associated Press.

And to think the Mets, which fired Singer, almost interviewed Backman to be their manager.

Just noticing. It pays to come clean.

George Washington Carver and Jimmy Carter might head the list of famous Americans associated with the peanut. But perhaps the only person made famous by the peanut is Roger Owens.

More than 40 years ago, Owens was selling peanuts in the stands during Dodger Stadium's opening season when he found the path to a customer obstructed. What happened next is a magical part of Dodger lore ... and the centerpiece of a new book by Daniel S. Green, The Perfect Pitch: The Biography of Roger Owens, The Famous Peanut Man at Dodger Stadium.

That's right - a biography of Roger Owens. I have to say I was a little surprised that one existed, even more so when I saw that it clocked in at 325 pages of text and images. Anyone - including this site's readers, more than a few of whom probably have a "Peanut Man" memory to share and, like me, will smile big at the sight of these photos - could be forgiven for thinking that even the most interesting vendor in the history of American sport could be summed up in a nice magazine article.

But Owens does have a story. Born on Valentine's Day, 1943 in Glendale, Owens was the son of a minister and the oldest of nine children who grew up in poverty that helped drive his mother to a sanatorium and the siblings to foster care for a period of years. As a member of the National Guard in 1969, a Jeep accident in which he was a passenger forced Owens into emergency brain surgery to save his life. This happened a year after Owens' father, Ross, was shot point-blank in the chest, only to have the religious tracts in his coat pocket stop the bullet. (A Times article documents the event.)

These and other traumas mingle with the fun tale of Owens' peanut-throwing exploits and improbable celebrity, which brought him appearances on The Tonight Show as well as stadia around the world and introduced him to his first wife (whom he sold a bag of peanuts when she was 13). His unique career also brought him joy and friendship on a scale many of us might not experience.

You could say that you haven't truly experienced Dodger Stadium unless you've caught a bag of nimbly tossed peanuts by Owens - behind the back, under the leg, or via the "double-bagger" (a single toss that sends two different bags to two different people). That makes me a little sad, because I haven't. Owens usually works the third-base side of the park, and of the roughly 1,000 Dodger games that I have attended, probably all but 10 or so have been on the right side of the diamond. If and when Owens reaches me, I'm all full up.

That being said, I do remember getting peanuts from Owens during Ram games at the Coliseum in the 1970s, placing him on my consciousness lo these many decades. And he's one of those quietly spellbinding figures that if he didn't already exist, you'd have been pretty proud to invent.

According to The Perfect Pitch, it all began for Owens, as a 15-year-old in 1958. Owens showed up well before game time during the Dodgers' first season in Los Angeles, much like a day laborer, in the hopes of being selected for just the chance to sell anything in the stands at the Coliseum. For months he was denied, but finally he was allowed to work his way up the vendor food chain, from soft drinks to ice cream to finally, as Green writes, "the bags of salted gold."

Green is Owens' nephew, and at times, his enthusiasm for Uncle Roger carries his writing away (not that mine hasn't fallen victim to such flights myself). Describing an earlier job Owens had working at a newsstand, Green writes, "Before going to work, he would quietly stare at the dark, gray strip of boulevard. He was entranced with the torn newspapers flying down the forsaken streets, and with how the wind howled an octave higher than poverty's loud mockery of everyone that lived there."

Faith is also an integral part to the Owens story, and while as a religious work the book is on the mild side, Green clearly has a goal to place Owens' life in a spiritual or testimonial context. That's not to say that Owens is portrayed in any way as the Second Coming, but that his humility, along with his dedication and selflessness and even occasional missteps and depression, are themselves as important to Green as Owens' peanut purveyance itself. Broadly speaking, it's a Horatio Alger story with occasional surprises (such as the nonchalant treatment of the news that Owens' first wife was 17 years old when he married her, an event that either reflects vestiges of a different era or an implicit "not-that-there's-anything-wrong-with-that" philosophy).

So, there are moments where Green's pride in his family takes over, as in this description of Owens' mother: "Mary Owens was a selfless woman who fought desperate times to raise a family in poverty, but she became a warrior in the Faith in her later years, becoming one of the Godliest women ever to be shaped by the Master Potter's hands." But beyond that lies the reason that Owens' story is worth this hefty a book. In between the occasional soft-shoe preaching, there is a story you don't see every day: of what makes an ordinary man extraordinary. The distance between The Perfect Pitch and the mega-bestseller, Tuesdays with Morrie, is probably less than one might think.

It doesn't hurt if your subject knows how to write poetry with a peanut toss ...

Roger just finished handing a bag to a customer when he turned around at the cry of another fan several rows away. More people now made their way down the stairs, carefully reading the ticket stubs for their row and seat number. Suddenly, they stood still, obstructing the travel path of a simple toss to the seated customer, who was yelling a second and third time for his peanuts. Young Roger stayed calm and instinctively surveyed the situation.

He couldn't put too high of an arch on the toss, because he noticed how the concrete rafter above, from the next highest level of stadium seating, was not high enough to allow a throw like that.

Some fans were already seated and, sensing the tension of the moment, they sat there grinning devilishly, as if watching a show. They sat back comfortably, but with undivided attention, to see what this young peanut vendor would do about the situation.

Before panic set it, he whimsically and nonchalantly poised the bag of peanuts to throw behind his back in one sweeping motion and let it fly.

The bag soared with a slight curve to it, sailing past the indecisive roadblock of people that caused the dilemma, and into the waiting hands of the shocked man.

"Hey. That was cool," the customer said in amazement, holding the bag in his lap.

Owens will be back at Dodger Stadium this year, which gives me another chance to get my first behind-the-back ballpark peanuts from him. Good deal. He is a rare treasure of the ballpark, and after reading The Perfect Pitch, I have greater appreciation of him than ever.

Bottom photo by John Gannon. Woman pictured with the Owens children in the fourth photo is foster mother Edith Beatty. All photos courtesy of Daniel S. Green.

Last week, I began to wonder how Dodger Thoughts might commemorate the 50th anniversary of the Dodgers' first World Series title. While mulling continues (including whether the energy can be mustered to run a day-by-day recap of the season), it's clear that others have been thinking about it as well.

In his weekly mailbag for MLB.com, Ken Gurnick writes that "the Dodgers will wear Brooklyn jerseys several times this season, including Aug. 28 at Dodger Stadium, when members of the 1955 team will be honored during a pregame ceremony." If I'm not mistaken, this will mark the first appearance of throwback jerseys at the stadium. Presumably, there will be no player names on the back of those, either.

In addition, there will be an October 4 celebration in Brooklyn marking the actual anniversary of the title.

It's not about peanuts or even baseball, but "Boy, Interrupted" by Christine Foster in Stanford Magazine is a story worth knowing about.

Joe Kay was a math whiz, a two-sport star and an award-winning sax player. One moment after the buzzer, all that changed. ...

Nice sentiments, but let's play "Spot the Errors" in this paragraph from Rod Beaton's debut notebook for USA Today.

Dodgers broadcaster Vin Scully gets all the raves all the time. He's justifiably in the Hall of Fame. But pause a moment and toast his frequent partner, Ross Porter. He always played straight man for Vinny when not calling the game in partial role as a first-class backup. He's retiring after 28 seasons and he will be missed. He remains noted for his class, even though the Dodgers barely had enough time to give him a send-off luncheon.

1) Porter didn't retire, he was not offered a contract with extreme predjudice.

2) He wasn't Vinny's straight man, except in a metaphysical way, as they always were on the air separately in the Dodgers' one-man booth.

3) Saying "the Dodgers barely had enough time to give him a send-off luncheon" implies that they eventually found the time to do so - which they did not. Beaton is probably referring to the Southern California Broadcasters Hall of Fame lunch at which Porter was honored. (Unless there was some other private send-off luncheon by the Dodgers that we didn't hear about.)

There's a corner ... Spring Training is around it.

Ossie Davis, an absolutely formidable actor who formed with his wife, Ruby Dee, one of America's most outstanding acting couples, has passed away at the age of 87.

Baseball did not figure prominently in Davis' acting career, though he did serve as a narrator in Ken Burns' documentary. But his passing is just one of those I can't ignore. What an incredible combination of sensitivity and authority Davis displayed.

For her part, among the many credits of her own remarkable career, Dee has played Rachel Robinson (opposite Jackie Robinson as himself) in 1950's The Jackie Robinson Story as well as Robinson's mother in 1991's The Court-Martial of Jackie Robinson.

Sadly, Dean Wormer himself, John Vernon, has also died. The incredible comedy of Animal House was made possible by Vernon's role as foil. Rest in peace, gentlemen.

Update: Dennis Cozzalio, who as a University of Oregon freshman was an extra in Animal House, has a personal remembrance of John Vernon at his film-and-baseball site, Sergio Leone and the Infield Fly Rule.

Adrian Beltre was a teenager when he made his debut with the Dodgers.

So was Norihiro Nakamura when he made his with the Kintetsu Buffaloes in Japan.

Though 31 years old, Nakamura is already a 13-season veteran of the Japanese major leagues. Signed this week to a minor-league contract, Nakamura won't replace Beltre in performance - he might not even make the Opening Day Dodger roster - but the few small parallels between him and Beltre are interesting.

Like Beltre, Nakamura had a promising season just after turning 20 before backsliding. He had an OPS of .827 in 1994, followed by .707 in 1995. In fact, Nakamura's OPS rose and fell in alternating years throughout almost the entire first decade of his career. Not until 2000-2001 did Nakamura have two consecutive years of improvement.

Like Beltre, Nakamura's age-25 season was the finest of his career to that point, with 32 home runs and an .856 OPS in 1998. He just missed matching that performance in '99, but then averaged more than 42 home runs over his next three seasons (2000-2002). Yes, even after your age-25 season shows dramatic improvement, you can get even better.

Of course, your second decade of professional baseball can also wear you down, no matter how young you are. Knee problems took hold of Nakamura around his 30th birthday, limiting his performance over the past two seasons (42 home runs total). What Dodger fans have to hope for is that better health will mitigate the downward pull that Major League Baseball will have on Nakamura's stats.

Just to compare, Hideki Matsui ended his Japanese career with eight consecutive seasons of .980-or-more OPS - a level Nakamura has only reached twice. As a 30-year-old with the Yankees last season, Matsui's OPS was .912. Knock 100-200 points off Nakamura's Japanese OPS, and you realize that basically, Nakamura might not be a much better hitter in the National League than Alex Cora was.

In any case, you can't help but be impressed by Nakamura's willingness to forgo millions of guaranteed dollars in Japan to take a chance on a contract that might land him in Las Vegas. And given that three years ago, the Mets offered Nakamura a two-year, $7-million contract, you can be excused for hoping that maybe the Dodgers just bought low on an underpriced stock. Just about anything they get from Nakamura will be, as one of my phys-ed teachers used to say, gravy on the cake.

Some random remembrances from last night's L.A. Press Club seminar on sports coverage in the initial twentieth of the 21st century:

First, thanks to Matt Welch for his role in organizing and moderating the discussion and for inviting me along.

On a scale of one to 10, the Dodger Thoughts awareness level of the others on the panel - Dodger public relations director John Olguin, ESPN Radio 710 host Steve Mason, Channel 9 sportscaster Alan Massengale and Times columnist J.A. Adande - peaked at about two. All were familiar with blogs conceptually, but none read Dodger Thoughts regularly, periodically, accidentally or perhaps even at all. By the time the evening was over, however, it seemed that at least Olguin and Mason would check it out, though from a PR standpoint, my sense is that Olguin doesn't want to open the interview and credential request floodgates for bloggers. In any case, even as the No. 5 on the five-man panel, I felt honored to participate. For me, the event was over too quickly.

Bill Plaschke's name didn't come up once, but we discussed T.J. Simers for several minutes. Olguin said Simers doesn't bother him because he gets that it's all a joke, and that Simers doesn't even take himself seriously. I replied that this was like excusing the guy spraying graffiti in your neighborhood because he didn't take it seriously. Simers was fine if you figured him out, but there are plenty of people who do take him at face value - and that on that level, he is undermining any useful dialogue. We agreed that Simers clearly favored those athletes who took what he dished out. Overall, though, the evening was more about the roles of the different media in sports and less about anyone's particular performance or talent.

Straight Dodger discussion? Not a lot. Everyone agreed that Olguin worked more as a facilitator than a gatekeeper. Olguin stated that he caters to the beat writers who are there day in and day out. Interestingly, he noted that whereas "lifers" once populated the Dodger beat, turnover is now frequent. Today, the senior person on the job has been covering the team for 11 months. (Tony Jackson of the Daily News, if I'm not mistaken.)

Roughly 350 nights a year, I will tuck my children into bed. This was one of the nights I didn't, and I was reminded how lucky I feel that those nights are rare. I could never do the Dodger beat for a paper now.

Mason was very likable, very unpretentious. Welch asked him if he felt underappreciated, and Mason laughed and basically said that his mission is to stir things up, so he was probably appreciated at the appropriate level. "I don't think we're doing anything great," he said with an easy smile. But his passion for what he does came though.

My performance in public speaking is improving since last year's thoughtful but shaky debut on KCRW-FM, but there are still too many pauses and ums. But I'm a little tired of putting myself down, so I'm going to take the bold step and say "I can do this." I truly enjoy it and hope to do more. I might have gotten the biggest laugh of the night with one line. (I know you all are deeply invested in this ...)

One of the main points I got across was that blogs are rising in part because of the demand for niche coverage in sports that the newspapers can't fill for budgetary reasons. Further, blogs lend themselves to serious analysis because quick-and-snappy is already covered. Adande echoed how much more he would like to write if he had the space. At the same time, I noted many sports bloggers rely on the mainstream press to do the game story reporting, so we can bypass that and go straight to our idiosyncratic takes. Right now, the different media compliment each other rather than compete.

One of the main points others got across is that women are much more accepted in the locker room than they were 10-20 years ago, and that the athletes do value the ones who know their stuff. Massengale said that two of the three sharpest co-anchors he has ever worked with were Gayle Gardner and Suzy Kolber. Mason lamented how bias against women cost Michelle Tafoya a job co-hosting a show with him years ago, but that she was too hard a worker not to overcome the prejudice.

On a smaller scale, bloggers are the next group that needs to prove itself, probably on a case-by-case basis. You can see it happening, for example, with Rich's Weekend Baseball BEAT - how he's networking with other reporters and people in the game and building up his credibility one encounter at a time.

Stanford connection of the night: In the audience was former Cardinal and WNBA player Carolyn Moos. Now 26, her business card reads: Professional Basketball Player • Model • Wardrobe Consultant • Journalist • Communications/Sociology, Stanford University • Personal Training

Audience members introduced themselves before asking their questions, which led to comic moments like these:

Questioner: "My name's X, and I'm a blogger"
Audience (in tone of Alcoholics Anonymous meeting): "Hi X."

Another funny moment came when Jim Fox of the Kings introduced himself as "unemployed hockey announcer."

Olguin told attendee Tommy Naccarato after the event that the Dodgers would be on KFWB for three more seasons. The poor coupling of 24-hour news station and Dodger broadcasts continues. One thing the team has been pursuing is a better signal for listeners in the San Fernando Valley.

Attendance was strong if you go by percentage of seats filled, which was about 100. Overall, there might have been, say, 65-75 people? I'd be interested to know from anyone who attended less about me (believe it or not) and more about whether they felt they learned anything of import. Some people did take notes, after all. What did you write down?

Update: Attendee Rob McMillin has his own report on the event.

When Dodger general manager Paul DePodesta traded Shawn Green (2004 OPS: .811) and $10 million to Arizona for four minor league prospects and release of the remaining $6 million on Green's contract, not only did most mainstream reporters criticize the move, many questioned DePodesta's credentials to be general manager, period.

Cubs general manager Jim Hendry this week is trading Sammy Sosa (2004 OPS: .849) and $12 million to Baltimore for infielder Jerry Hairston, Jr., two minor league prospects and release of the remaining $5 million on Sosa's contract. Realizing that Green wasn't the outward clubhouse problem in Los Angeles that Sosa had become in Chicago, the contrast in press reaction is strong.

On ESPN.com, Jayson Stark calls the trade "best for everybody."

Phil Rogers offers Hendry sympathy, writing that he "made his manager happy, which unfortunately for Hendry left him with his name on a horribly one-sided trade."

Buster Olney also focuses on the positive side of the Cubs' fresh start: "There is more work to be done on this roster - and they can forge ahead, now that the Sosa chapters are closed."

Chemistry still reigns in the press. Most of the reviews of the Sosa trade have nothing to do with on-field performance, but instead the dugout, the locker room and admittedly, the car driving away from Wrigley Field.

And so, Hendry gets a free ride on this deal. If Sosa knocks out 50 homers in Baltimore, well, today we say Hendry still had to make the trade. Forget about the relative values of the players involved - it's all about peace and quiet.

I'm actually more sympathetic to this notion than you might think. I was among those who believed that the Dodgers had to get rid of Gary Sheffield in large part because of his recurring criticism of teammates and people in the organization. As a bonus, the Dodgers actually got some decent value in exchange for Sheffield.

Years later, many consider the trade a mistake. Why? Because Sheffield has since continued to produce at a rate that makes him an outside Hall of Fame candidate. He's done the job on the field.

The coming season will do much to determine how the Dodgers' so-called chemistry-busting trade of Paul Lo Duca will be remembered. The determining factors will be nothing more than the stats of the players involved: Lo Duca, Guillermo Mota, Hee Seop Choi and Brad Penny.

Do you see what's happening here? In the moment, the trade is about chemistry. In the aftermath, the trade becomes about performance.

I believe that chemistry has an intangible value. I go to work for a living - I know how galvanizing enthusiastic people can be. I just don't know that this value is the least bit significant in the long run. If there's an argument to be made for the chemistry's importance, people are going to find a better way to make it. They are going to have to find a way to show the effect of good chemists and bad chemists on their teammates. If it's more important to have an enthusiastic mediocrity than a sour star, it would be nice to know why.

None of this, by the way, is an argument for keeping a sour mediocrity - and if that's what Sosa's become, then so be it (though there seems to be some doubt on that score). In any case, the evaluation of Sosa's performance needs to be the primary part of the initial discussion, just as an evaluation of Green's or Lo Duca's performance needed to be. Because that's where we're headed in the end.

Postscript: In contrast to the mainstreamers, Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus writes: "The net result for the Cubs is that instead of paying $17 million for Sosa, they'll pay about that much for Jeromy Burnitz, who's likely to sign a one-year deal for about $5 million once the trade goes through. ... This trade doesn't make them a better baseball team: They're not saving any money, and they've downgraded their talent base."

Yong-yi Zhu, sports columnist for The Tech, the newspaper of the thinking minds at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, went to the trouble of picking on Dodger general manager Paul DePodesta today.

Mostly, it's a harmless enough school rivalry bit in which Zhu mocks DePodesta's Harvard education. Having gone to college where the ticket office phone number is (800) BEATCAL, I can relate:

For one thing, we learned that running a baseball team is among the many tasks at which Harvard graduates don’t excel. They might be more arrogant than we are, but when it comes to making decisions, I wouldn’t trust them with the important ones.

It's funny how the end of the second sentence seems to disprove the beginning. Anyway, Zhu continues:

A perfect example is the general manager of the Los Angeles Dodgers, Paul Depodesta, a Harvard graduate. He was entrusted with the task of making the Dodgers successful but has both ruined his own reputation and severely hindered the chance for LA to win another National League West title in this upcoming year.

I don't want to fall into the arrogance trap myself, so I'll just say I disagree with that statement and much of what follows in his look at DePodesta, most notably that backing out of the original Shawn Green trade "destroyed his reputation and precluded him from other trades during this off season."

Ultimately, Zhu concludes by returning to his original point:

Well, what can you expect from a Harvard alum?

Ah, to be young and able to mock a GM for his Crimson. I'm feeling nostalgic.

And I'm thinking DePodesta isn't going to trade for Jason Szuminski anytime soon.

Just one day away: 21st-century sports journalism panel discussion.

Participants:

L.A. Times Columnist J.A. Adande

KCAL 9 Lead Sports Anchor Alan Massengale

ESPN Radio 710 "Big Show" Co-host Steve Mason

Los Angeles Dodgers Public Relations Director John Olguin

Dodger Thoughts proprietor and ex-Daily News sportswriter Jon Weisman

Reason magazine Associate Editor and media columnist Matt Welch (moderator).

Place: Los Angeles Press Club, 6464 Sunset Blvd., 8th floor
Day: Wednesday, February 2
Schedule:

6 p.m. pregame

7 p.m. discussion

8:30 p.m. possible informal bull session at nearby pub.
Tickets:

$15 general public

$5 L.A. Press Club members

free for those joining the club at the event.
Info/RSVP: info@lapressclub.org or (323) 469-8180