This was published Friday, but in case you haven't seen it, Allen Barra explodes the myth that there is no competition in baseball on Slate.

Dodger 2003 OPS by Batting Slot (with League Rank)
No. 1 batters: .622 (16th)
No. 2 batters: .609 (16th)
No. 3 batters: .804 (12th)
No. 4 batters: .757 (16th)
No. 5 batters: .785 (10th)
No. 6 batters: .645 (16th)
No. 7 batters: .731 (7th)
No. 8 batters: .633 (13th)
No. 9 batters: .416 (15th)

Dodger 2003 OPS by Position (with League Rank)
Pitchers: .305 (11th)
Catchers: .732 (8th)
First basemen: .710 (15th)
Second basemen: .703 (13th)
Third basemen: .702 (12th)
Shortstops: .576 (16th)
Left fielders: .646 (16th)
Center fielders: .682 (14th)
Right fielders: .809 (9th)

If you are last in the league in offensive production at two positions, and if one of those positions provides great defensive value, then you need to priortize finding someone for the other position.

Ceasr Izturis is an offensive liability - perhaps so big an offensive liability that his outstanding defense cannot compensate. But before the Dodgers find a new shortstop, they had first better find a good-hitting left fielder (one that could legitimately bat fourth in the lineup would be nice).

And if Shawn Green is moving to first base, then the team's next mission is to find a good-hitting right fielder.

And unless those two new outfielders are poor defensive players, the Dodgers' third priority should be to find a better-hitting center fielder.

Dave Roberts? He had an OPS of .638 last season. Factor in his 40 stolen bases and 14 caught stealing, and you would add 26 total bases to his offense, giving him an OPS of .704. Not enough. To put it in perspective, Roberts (.248 EQA) had a poorer season than Tom Goodwin (.256 EQA).

Jolbert Cabrera? He had a good season for the Dodgers, but his OPS in part-time duty was .775. He was hit by 10 pitches, but walked 17 times all year. Dave Roberts and Jolbert Cabrera would give you a great bench.

Start in the outfield with some real solutions. Then, and only then, try to improve the infield, whose defense at least can help the pitching staff maintain its excellence.

And by the way, Paul Lo Duca should stay at catcher. The Dodgers just need to show more confidence in their backup catchers, who also hit adequately for the position.

No better way to enter baseball's second season than to read this story by Alex Belth at Bronx Banter.

If you're interested in reading my thoughts about my other area of pseudo-expertise, go to TV Thoughts. It's something I've been wanting to do, but will no doubt roll out as haphazardly as someone driving a stick shift for the first time. Feedback is welcome for this work-in-progress.

Mike Branom writes:

I'd like to register a complaint against the Dodger training staff. (I believe you have made similar comments.) Doesn't it seem to you that an above-average number of medical controversies seem to befall our boys in blue? Green's shoulder, McGriff's groin, Perez's finger, Beltre's appendix, the various - and expensive - disabilities of Brown and Dreifort.

Johnston, going off the media guide, is an organizational soldier, but behind the lines, if I may stretch the metaphor. He started with the Great Falls team in 1985 and has worked his way up the chain: Bakersfield, Albuquerque and assistant in The Show. I'm not going to lay everything at Johnston's feet - who knows what's happening behind closed doors. But this is a matter that needs to be addressed in the offseason. Will Dan Evans do it? This is his second year as Johnston's boss, so he should have formed an opinion by now. If the team is sold, with the new owners even look in that direction, or will they be too busy hiring architects and contractors so they can cram housing into Chavez Ravine, or lobbying for a downtown stadium? Good organizations are proactive about the health of their players - end of story.

Does an above-average number of medical controversies seem to befall our boys in blue? If you take the question literally - addressing not medical ailments, but medical controversies, than perhaps the answer is yes.

Mike is right in that I am worried that Dodger management reacts emotionally to player injuries. As I wrote recently about the Odalis Perez situation, I fear that the Dodgers have created a climate where you become suspect if you complain about an injury that they don't take seriously.

Will Carroll has made it pretty clear on Baseball Prospectus that injuries are not bad luck - but as manageable as any other aspect of the game. There may be only so much you can do with a Darren Dreifort - and for that matter, Johnston and his colleagues may deserve praise just for getting a couple months out of Dreifort this year - but yes, the fact that there is repeated second-guessing about evaluation of injuries concerns me.

And yes, I don't expect that the organization is going to pay any attention to this concern during the offseason.

P.S. Mike also passed along this link to a December 2002 article about former Dodger Onan Masaoka, who decided to walk away from the major leagues at age 25 rather than become the Hawaiian Jesse Orosco. He is going to college for a degree in communications while volunteering as a pitching coach.

... because it would be the greatest sports matchup in history, some more random Dodger notes:

Allowing 34 runs in their final five games, the Dodgers let their team ERA swell to 3.16 for the season. They still led the league by more than half a run, but it wasn't a strong finish to say the least...

Guillermo Mota entered Sunday's game in the eighth inning, and Todd Linden struck out to end the eighth. But that strikeout came against Paul Quantrill, leaving Mota with 99 strikeouts and denying the Dodgers two 100-K relievers...

Shawn Green led the Dodgers with a .280 batting average, the lowest to lead the team in Los Angeles Dodger history. Adrian Beltre's 23 home runs were the lowest to lead the team since Eric Karros' 20 in 1992. Green's 85 RBI were the lowest to lead the team since Mike Marshall's 82 in 1988 - although special mention should go to 1986, when Bill Madlock led the Dodgers with only 60...

The Dodgers have finished with a record above .500 in seven of their past eight seasons, their best stretch since 1976-83...

The Times writes today that the Dodgers may want Green to move to first base. Nothing wrong with getting the increasingly clumsy Green out of right field, but the newspaper adds that the rationale might include the Dodgers resigning Jeromy Burnitz amd moving him to right. As a Dodger, Burnitz had an on-base percentage 30 points lower than Cesar Izturis and a slugging percentage 33 points lower than Beltre. Whatever Burnitz seemed to have solved in the first half of the season with the Mets, he apparently lost when he moved West. However, I'll take a closer at Burnitz later this week.

MLB.com has posted the tentative 2004 Dodger schedule here. According to this schedule, the Dodgers open the season April 5 at home against San Diego, and finish the season at home October 3 against San Francisco.

The first regular season games against the New York Yankees at Dodger Stadium are slated for the weekend of June 18-20.

Interesting to note that while every other opponent is listed by location name, the Expos are listed by team nickname. Guess MLB doesn't believe that it's safe to call the team Montreal for next season, but is confident enough to call them the Expos.

Maybe we should focus on finding the perfect city for that nickname. Could anything make more sense than to have a team called the Expos play in our local underused sports facility in Exposition Park? Los Angeles Expos, anyone?

1) Guillermo Mota is three strikeouts away from giving the Dodgers two bullpen teammates with 100.

2) If you remember, the initial report from Bob Nightengale regarding the Jim Tracy-Dan Evans feud said that among other things, Evans wanted Tracy to play Robin Ventura more, but that Tracy didn't want to.

It's interesting, amid the Times finally reporting today on the feud (with the principals saying that it was overblown), to note that out of the past eight games, Fred McGriff has started one game at first base, while Ventura has started six.

With apologies to Edmond Rostand...

THE VISCOUNT (with a conceited air): Sir, your team is ... hmm ... it is ... very disappointing!
CYRANO (gravely): Very!
THE VISCOUNT (laughing): Ha!
CYRANO (imperturbably): Is that all?
THE VISCOUNT: What do you mean?
CYRANO: Ah no! young blade! That was a trifle short!
You might have said at least a hundred things
By varying the tone ... like this, suppose, ...
Aggressive: "If I had such a team, I'd destroy it!"
Friendly: "Return to our league; you are welcome most anytime."
Descriptive: "Such roadkill ... such sweet roadkill ..."
Curious: "For scholars of the future, do tell us - how do you manage to watch others play in October, anon?"
Gracious: "Pray, thank you for your kindness to the little Marlins."
Truculent: "Your offense does indeed offend."
Considerate: "Do take this Brian Jordan bobblehead doll, as a proper remembrance."
Tender: "Ah, sweet March, with such promise, seems so long ago."
Pedantic: "Excuse me for saying, from this point of vantage, you might future-focus on on-base percentage."
Cavalier: "Ah, well, it's only a game, that you spend your whole lives pursuing."
Emphatic: " 'Tis no disappointment - you were never that good."
Dramatic: "Out. Out. OUT!"
Admiring: "Even with Monsieur Gagne, tout est perdu. Impressive."
Lyric: "Swing low, sweet batter. Coming for not to carry me home."
Simple: "You needed to manufacture runs."
Rustic: "How well you betray the lovely green fields."
Military: "We have found the weapons of minimal destruction!"
Practical: "This foundation, upon can one build,
Assuming one doth not stare deep and be illed,
And rend management contracts so carefully quilled
That might long run help, should one take a pill chilled."

--Such, my dear sir, is what you might have said,
Had you of wit or letters the least jot:
But, O most lamentable man!--of wit
You never had an atom, and of letters
You have three letters only!--they spell Ass!

And--had you had the necessary wit,
To serve me all the pleasantries I quote
Before this noble audience ... e'en so,
You would not have been let to utter one--
Nay, not the half or quarter of such jest!
I take them from myself all in good part,
But not from any other man that breathes!

(No, in my part, I didn't keep the meter. Include that in my apologies to Edmond.)

Dan Evans, speaking to Robert Kuwada of the Orange County Register about Dodger pitching coach Jim Colburn:

"I think what Jim has done this year is really taken a really good work ethic and stepped it up even another notch," Evans said. "Just an example. We brought up Scott Mullen in Atlanta when we were really struggling. We were in a real delicate time of the year.

"He stayed in on a Saturday night and waited for Mullen to get in and then went over the Braves hitters with him.

"And then the next day, Scott didn't get the win, but he got through three innings and to the point where we could win that game against Russ Ortiz.

"He took (Guillermo) Mota the day he first reported (to spring training), pitched him an inning and brought him down to he bullpen and worked on lengthening his stride, and a couple of weeks later all of a sudden he's throwing the ball a couple miles an hour harder.

"I think what he's done this year that's really impressed me is he's taken a number of different types of guys and meshed them together.

"We have a very diverse staff, not only from backgrounds, but languages and pitch selections and he's really monitored them and kept guys focused on what they need to do."

The letters keep coming ... this one from Mike B:

Been a Dodger fan since 1985; my chronological list of favorite players: Marshall (how sad is that?), Scioscia, Mondesi, Beltre, Lo Duca (former classmate of his at Glendale CC and Arizona State).

My quick background: Born in Redondo, lived toddler years in the valley, grew up in AZ but out of college I worked at papers in Santa Barbara Co. and Humboldt Co. Now living in Orlando, Fla., but I try to make it to the stadium at least once a year.

A few thoughts on this season:

1. Throw out Gagne's worst game of 2003 (4 ER in 1/3 inning against Atlanta), and his ERA is a neat 0.79. That's dominating, and I feel lucky that I saw him this year, even if it was a pedestrian 1 IP, 2 K save against the CRockies in late May.

2. That also was the game Dreifort struck out 7 in the first two innings, a feat I'll probably never see again.

3. Looking at the post-Lasorda, Fox-mayhem years, I think Dodger fans should feel fortunate that the team hasn't fallen through the floor. Wins per seaon, starting with 1997: 88-83-77-86-86-92-8? That's a decent run for a brain-dead organization. And don't give me any lip about having to hit bottom to successfully rebuild - Many teams hit bottom, then stay there.

4. Put me in the camp that Evans is doing well in coping with a lousy financial situation. Payroll flexibility is going to be a wonderful thing. The farm is getting better too.

5. Tracy is fine. SI made a dumb comment in the issue I received today about his job status being in jeopardy because he couldn't find an offense to support that wonderful pitching staff. People are failing to realize that the pitchers look so good because of a great defense (a Bill James belief), and those glovemen just can't hit. Beltre's an underrated defensive 3B, btw, and I'll bet Tracy stuck with him all
season for that reason.

6. So, what WILL it take for the Dodgers to get over the hump? (You compared it to a playground game of leapfrog.) A farm system that can produce some bats would be a start. Better health - what's LA's record if the Shawn Green of the last two seasons shows? Other than that, not much. This is a team that's competed down to the final week the last two seasons, and hasn't had a losing season since 1999. Although the W-L this season will drop off from '02, this is an organization that's improving.

I appreciate that Ross Newhan apologized today in the Times for his cheapest shot at Odalis Perez last week...

Jolbert Cabrera got his 30th double last night, third on the Dodgers, in his 331st at-bat. He has had 16 doubles since his last home run, on July 12 at Colorado. Cabrera's last homer at normal altitude came May 30...

Cabrera and Alex Cora have more doubles than walks. On a smaller scale, so do Larry Barnes, Wilkin Ruan and Koyie Hill...

Dave Roberts almost has fewer doubles (six) than triples (five)...

I found it interesting that on the same day that Bill Plaschke wrote in the Times that the Dodgers have over-prioritized team chemistry (vis-a-vis Gary Sheffield), USA Today Sports Weekly came to my house and ranked the Dodger team chemistry last among the final 13 playoff contenders. The (insufficient) explanation: "The Dodgers have issues." ...

I am so sad that Rickey's career might end with surgery.

Chris Hamilton writes:

Re: Tracy vs. Evans

I donÕt envy the jobs that Jim Tracy and Evans have had to do the last 3 years or so. They have both had to deal with restraints created outside their control and unrealistic expectations. Tracy might be the most patient man in all of baseball and even he seems ready to snap these days. Unfortunately, life isnÕt fair and they both knew what they were taking on when they accepted the job.

So where do the Dodgers go from here? LetÕs look at the pros and cons for Evans:

Pros

1) Evans has done a solid job rebuilding the farm system. It would have been easy for Dan to try and save his own skin and trade the farm for Giles, but he didnÕt.

2) Evans hasnÕt signed any dangerous long term contracts. Not that he had much choice in the matter.

3) Evans hasnÕt been an embarrassment to organization like previous General Manager Kevin Malone. He has towed the company line almost to a fault.

4) Evans has put together an amazing collection of pitchers that take advantage of one of the Dodgers biggest assets - Dodger Stadium.

Cons

1) Evans hasnÕt been very creative and when he has tried to be creative he has failed. Dan doesnÕt have much of a track record, but his one big deal, Karros for McGriff, has been a disaster. Editor's note: this is the de facto version of a series of transactions. Having to pay $6 million to Todd Hundley next year is really going to hurt. $6 million would fill at least one and probably 2 lineup holes this off-season. (Full disclosure: I was optimistic about this deal up until the Dodgers signed McGriff.)

2) Evans (or the people he has hired) loves tools. It has worked well enough for the pitching, but the hitting is a mess. By pretty much any standard the Dodgers are terrible hitters. It is questionable whether or not Evans even knows what makes a good hitter. This is a big problem in our minor league system.

3) Evans might get some undue credit for the farm system. Other than Loney and Miller, our other top prospects were not signed/drafted by Evans. Hanrahan and Jackson were both drafted by Malone and Gutierrez was signed in 2001 from Venezuela. Drafting HS players has turned out ok, but it remains to be seen whether or not the Dodgers can succeed long term drafting high schoolers.

4) Evans doesnÕt appear to have a good relationship with other GMs. The only way the Dodgers ever close a deal is to pay a premium or deal with someone who is desperate. Also, others have complained that Evans doesnÕt return phone calls. Because of the nature of MLB it is critical that a GM can work well with his peers.

In my opinion, it is time for the Dodgers to thank Evans for his hard work and part ways. There is reason for optimism in the future and I think it makes sense to make a clean break with the past. The decision becomes easier when you realize that Billy Beane could probably be enticed to take the job. Beane has a strong track record and is strong in every area where Evans is weak. If the Dodgers donÕt at least try I will be very disappointed.

I think Tracy is a good manager and I donÕt think that anyone else could have gotten more wins out of this group the last few years. But if the Dodgers bring in a new GM, they should let the new GM make a decision on the manager. It is critical that everyone is on the same page.

Re: Gammons

Judging by Gammons' track record, IÕll bet he was two busy listening to American HI-FI (or whatever is his new pop punk flavor of the week) to give his column a good once over for errors.

Re: Odalis

The Dodgers are going to trade one of their starters for a bat and Odalis looks like the odd man out. Hopefully, the Dodgers trade him to the AL because he isnÕt the type of guy I would want to be facing for the next 10 years.

In a bit of a coutnerpoint to the long-term optimism found on this side, Rick Todd writes:

I think many of us are a little too positive on the future of the Dodgers. I'm not sure about you specifically, but the John of John's Dodger Blog and others that I've seen seem to think that the Dodgers chances will be regained with new ownership. The influence of FOX will still be felt. The best-case scenario I can think of with the Dodgers is they are sold immediately after the regular season, Evans remains GM, or Beane becomes GM after the A's do whatever they will do in the playoffs. I find this
scenario unlikely. I think more realistically, the Dodgers will not be sold in the off season, or at least not until late in the off season, which will prevent us from getting any big free agent position players, which we can afford and desperately need.
On top of that, even if Beane, whose name has been rumored for the job, were to take over, it's likely that his new style of leadership, and inevitable shakeup of the scouting and front office teams, will slow down any chances a quick and easy takeover.

If you look at our acquisitions, and the crap that Evans has had to put up with, since FOX announced that the Dodgers would be put up for sale, Evans has made ZERO multi-year free agent acquisitions. The last one he made was Shuey, in the middle of the 02 season. This is important because, no free agent wants to sign a one-year contract. They want stability. Unless they're old and broken (McGriff and Henderson), a good
free agent wants nothing to do with a one-year contract. All the trade and free agent acquistions this year have been to players who will retire after this season (Ventura), or be at best bench players next year (Henderson, McGriff, Burnitz). I guess the rub of this tale is, expect more of the same from the Dodgers next season, unless the team is sold
post-haste. And with the Glazer family running into trouble from Tagliabue and NFL, and FOX refusing to hand over cable TV rights, no one is chomping at the bit for this team. Not good.

Thanks for your letter. I think you make some good points - particularly that the Dodger sale may take a lot longer than people realize, or at least be a lot more complicated even after a buyer is chosen.

I'm not sure I agree with you about the one-year free agent in this day and age - look at Ivan Rodriguez, for example. I would be willing to say that Rodriguez is an exception to the rule you state, but perhaps not the only one.

My reasons for being positive about the Dodger future don't have much to do with potential new ownership - in fact, I might be as pessimistic as you on that front. What makes me optimistic is that at a minimum, some discipline has been instilled in the organization after a chaotic stretch under Malone. Yes, Evans doesn't always make the right decision, and I can concede perhaps better GMs can be found. But only one team in baseball has been able to buy its way out of its problems, and that team plays in the Bronx. I think that setting a spending limit has forced the Dodgers, in a sense, to go back to school, to learn what works and what doesn't. (And yes, they are clearly still learning.) The payoff isn't immediate, but it could be a long-term one. If you don't build a winning baseball team with one-year free agents, you certainly don't build it with one-year plans.

That leaves me cautiously optimistic about the team. Very cautiously. I stated saying several years ago that the Dodgers could become the 21st century version of the Cubs - 100 years without a title - if they're not careful. They still need to be careful.

Rick wrote back saying that Rodriguez was a good exception but perhaps more unique than I think he is. In any case, again, a reader has come in with some good points to be made.

Finally, in response to my query Tuesday about whether the lack of negative letters to this site indicated that I was merely preaching to the converted, Dan Reines writes:

Jon, is that your intent? To convert minds?

I, for one, enjoy reading your blog more than any other Dodger site -- actually, more than any other sports site. It's smart and insightful, and it serves as a sort of reference point for me when it comes to this team. But I'm not sure how or why I should be "converting," though I grant that perhaps it's not me you're aiming to win over.

In any case, I wouldn't be disappointed by flat numbers -- leave that to the boys at Fox. If you want hits, start raving about the team like Michael Savage or someone. I'm sure you'll get plenty of visitors. I won't be one of 'em, but whatever.

Seriously, Jon. I think you make a mistake in interpreting the silence of your audience as disapproval or disinterest.

The Dodgers are 17-13 when they allow two runs in a game - a .567 winning percentage. Sounds decent, right?

It's the second-worst mark in baseball.

Worst is Arizona, which is 9-9 when it allows two runs in a game.

The rest of baseball is 424-108 wheh allowing two runs in a game - a .797 winning percentage.

Two teams are undefeated in this area: Kansas City (15-0) and San Diego (10-0). In a slightly different category, the last-place Padres are 32-0 when they allow two runs or less. When allowing three runs or more, San Diego is 30-94 (.242)

Did you know that Eric Gagne allowed three runs in the All-Star Game - and only one run since?

Gagne's post-All Star record: 35 innings, 13 hits, 1 run, 8 walks, 59 strikeouts, 0.26 ERA.

Aaron Gleeman brings his usual attention to detail in analyzing the National League Cy Young race today.

Out of nowhere - which I guess is appropriate - Wilson Alvarez has hurled himself into National League Comeback Player of the Year candidacy.

Who's your pick?

Wilson Alvarez, 2002: 23 games, 10 starts, 75 innings, 36 walks, 56 strikeouts, 5.28 ERA
Wilson Alvarez, 2003: 19 games, 10 starts, 86 innings, 20 walks, 76 strikeouts, 1.99 ERA

Kevin Brown, 2002: 17 games, 10 starts, 63 2/3 innings, 23 walks, 58 strikeouts, 4.81 ERA
Kevin Brown, 2003: 31 games, 31 starts, 204 innings, 52 walks, 182 strikeouts, 2.43 ERA

Okay, it's still Brown - and by the way, there are no other candidates outside of these two. But Alvarez has been incredible. He continues to lead the league in post-All Star Game ERA, at 1.17.

John Wiebe at John's Dodger Blog e-mailed me overnight with this:

Wilson Alvarez : 2003 :: Terry Adams : 2001

Discuss.

Wilson's going to land another multi-year deal from somebody this off-season. I just hope it's not from L.A.

Seriously, this has got to be the biggest surprise since Lo Duca's 2001 season, but it can't be anything more than a fluke. Still, as I'm writing on my site today, the vicissitudes of good fortune have only swung our way when it is least convenient.

Hideo Nomo's ERA, year-by-year
1995: 2.54
1996: 3.19
1997: 4.25
1998: 4.92
1999: 4.54
2000: 4.74
2001: 4.50
2002: 3.39 (age 33)
2003: 2.98

Wilson Alvarez's ERA, year-by-year
1989: 81.00
1991: 3.52
1992: 5.20
1993: 2.95
1994: 3.45
1995: 4.32
1996: 4.22
1997: 3.48
1998: 4.73
1999: 4.22
2002: 5.28
2003: 1.99 (age 33)

Both pitchers went through a dead-arm period. Both pitchers are now operating in perhaps the best pitching environment in baseball.

No, I wouldn't expect Alvarez to return in 2004 with a sub-2.00 ERA. And few pitchers in this day and age deserve a contract beyond two or three years.

I'm no fan of bidding wars, but I'd certainly want to sign Alvarez for two years if the price were right. He's a year and a half younger than Nomo, his strikeout rate is at a career-high 7.95 per nine innings, and he has much fewer innings under his wide belt in the past four seasons.

As for Terry Adams, he was a career reliever who was converted (forced by circumstance) into being a starter. I don't know that he's as valid a choice for comparison.

Will Carroll, who in addition to his incredible work on Baseball Prospectus has just started his own blog, has two Dodger notes today at BP:

With Paul Lo Duca spazzing out when Jim Tracy tells the truth (strained chest muscle), the stories about friction between Tracy and (fill in the blank) are getting louder and more frequent. Tracy will be one of the "won, but still on the hot seat" managers after the season, along with Jerry Manuel, Tony LaRussa, Bob Melvin, and, to some extent, Jack McKeon.

The Dodgers also will pay for another surgery for Darren Dreifort. Honestly, he's a medical marvel. The fact that he could have so much go wrong and still factor into anyone's plans is amazing. Just 10 years ago, he'd probably have three separate conditions that would end his career. Now, Dreifort is headed for surgery to repair his acetabular (hip) labrum in Boston. Reports have him ready for spring training, believe it or not.

I've said before that Tracy seems like a brittle guy, from his dealings with the media alone, so it's not that I find the reports of general friction hard to believe. The real question is, is this friction incurable?

I've worked in situations where relationships were so bad that someone had to go, but I am still not convinced that this situation is so extreme.

And am I the only one, after reading about his displeasure with Perez and Tracy this season, that is starting to think that it's Lo Duca who is a little too sensitive?

John Wiebe has an amusing story about pursuing a story of a possible offseason trade of Paul Lo Duca.

I don't want to give away the punchline, but suffice it to say, his girlfriend may be correct. Then again, who knows?

Disappointed or disgusted by the Dodger finish this season? Two responses to this query of mine Monday came in:

The first, from Bill Simms:

I am, like you, disappointed but not disgusted. The team has teased us this year, like the last two, but I had modest expectations going in. It's been far more entertaining than some years past and I'd rather been in it until the last week, than done in August. While the win total will not increase from last year, at least it's second and not third place.

There is absolutely long term hope. The budget improves over the next three years and I'm pretty confident that if Evans is still in charge, the Dodgers will be the best in the division when the Brown/Dreifort deals come off the books. It will be a shame if Evans loses his job because he made the best (long term) decision to keep the top prospects. While I question the preponderance of high school draftees, the commitment to developing through the system and planning for the long term is something we haven't seen since that fateful night in 1987 when the downfall of the Dodgers started.
All the mistakes will be forgiven if they pull off the miracle.
On another topic, the reported Tracy/Evans friction is disappointing. I like both of them, but I would choose Evans if it came to one or the other. I can see anyone blaming Tracy for the poor offense, because he seems to choose defense over offense almost exclusively when he has the choice (having both Cora and Izturis in the lineup is a huge handicap). But, I don't think that you can criticize the lack of run scoring without balancing it with the tremendous run prevention. The team ERA isn't all because of the pitching. I hope the new ownership keeps the management in place (if they can get along). I'd rather bring in a new manager if the relationship is really strained. The two need to be working together.

Hello Jon,

Seems the only place to get a balanced opinion on the Dodgers these days is your blog. And I thank you. IÕm looking forward to your coverage of the hot-stove league.

I, Òtwo,Ó am puzzled as to the alleged reports of friction between Tracy and Evans. Perhaps Gammons meant that upon the filing of his column there were now ÒtwoÓ reports about this alleged friction (NightengaleÕs and GammonsÕ). Who knows?

Regardless, since I donÕt work for the LA Times, I guess IÕm lacking any sort of hidden agenda or burning desire to see Evans and Tracy fired. Tracy again managed a mediocre team to the brink of playoff qualification. He didnÕt have the horses, as they say. The man whose job it is to get the horses didnÕt have the resources to do so because some of the studs already in the barn are grossly overpaid. This still goes back to Kevin Malone, and it will continue to do so until the Brown, Dreifort and (to a lesser extent) Green contracts are off the books (after the 2037 season, I believe). Evans and Tracy are still playing the crappy hands they were dealt. (If youÕre scoring at home, thatÕs one paragraph with ÒtwoÓ many clichŽd metaphors Ð horses and cards. And donÕt forget about Òscoring at home.Ó)

CouldnÕt agree more on Odalis Perez. This guy was put in a no-win situation (and IÕm not talking about the outcome of last nightÕs game). If he skipped another start, he was likely to replace Carlos as the least popular Perez in Dodger history. (Yorkis wasnÕt around long enough to qualify.) So he would have started last nightÕs game even if heÕd just returned from an appendectomy in the Dominican Republic. While IÕm puzzled by the treatment he received from Tracy, IÕm left to wonder if anyone really thinks this is part of some grand conspiracy theory to make it easier to trade Perez this offseason. The Dodgers want to use him as bait, so they sacrifice their wildcard hopes while simultaneously driving down his trade value? It must be true Ð IÕm hearing ÒtwoÓ many reports on this oneÉ

Yes, there are many positives from this season that point to a solid 2004 campaign if Ð IF Ð the offense is buttressed. And yes, the Green-Cora-LoDuca play was a highlight. The question now is how many of those guys will be in the position to make a similar play next year? At this point, only Lo DucaÕs position seems secure. The Green-to-first campaign has already begun anew, and even though Cora has gotten some nice PR in the Gold Glove race, the Dodgers most certainly will make a run at replacing him next year. (Matsui? Castillo? Larkin? Alomar? Walker?)

Normally, when I run letters on this site, I edit out the praise of Dodger Thoughts and publish only the actual Dodger thoughts, if you get the idea. I figure that no one but me really needs to have my ego stroked. (Make no mistake, each stroke is wonderful.)

Today, I left in Terry's praise, for a reason. I did not receive any "disgusted" e-mails overnight - and in fact, with the notable exception of my loyal reader, "BigCPA," almost every letter I have received this year has agreed in large part with my position. And although BigCPA and I have disagreed on how important it is to have a balanced team, our debate has been completely collegial.

At the same time, despite increased exposure throughout the year on different websites, and a positive review in the Times (hopefully not the last time the paper would pay kindness or even attention to me, despite my recurring criticism of its baseball coverage this summer), my readership has not increased by any significant measure.

I'm coming to think that on Dodger Thoughts, I am simply preaching to the converted - and not converting. I get the feeling that when other members of the Dodger faithful come across this site, they do a little read, objectively dismiss me as an amateur quack, and move on with their lives. Just like I do with callers on talk radio. Completely fair, but certainly I'd like to see these readers stick around, even if they don't agree with me.

So anyway, I'm going to ask again, if you disgusted readers are out there, write me. I'm all for having my views endorsed and my insecurities soothed, but there's a reason they call healthy debate, well, "healthy debate."

"Point taken."
- Jason Reid, Los Angeles Times

So Odalis Perez wasn't dogging it after all. Big shock.

The small mea culpa from Reid, addressing the criticism laced upon Perez for missing his September 17 start with a finger injury, will probably have to suffice as far as the Times is concerned, although I'm tickled with curiosity about how Bill Plaschke, who wrote the most inflammatory column questioning Perez' dedication, would dance around the subject, following a hopeless inning by the injured Perez that effectively ended the Dodger season Monday.

Oh, but that's right. Unlike Perez, Plaschke can duck out from this challenging assignment and not be criticized by anyone, except a guy with a blog whose readership is in the hundreds.

To be fair to Plaschke, I don't get the sense he made up his column out of thin air. Multiple reports indicate that there was the ever-popular "grumbling" among Perez' teammates, so it sounds like Plaschke used that noise as a launching pad for his column.

Of course, Plaschke could have lent a voice of reason to the proceedings - saying that maybe a guy like Perez, who missed the entire 2000 season with Tommy John surgery but fought his way through rehab and made it all the way back, actually has every appearance of being a dedicated player.

But why bother when there's a tirade to be had? I should know - I'm writing my own now.

Another question: Was there only grumbling about Perez, or was there a contingent of teammates ready to come to Perez' defense - only to be ignored. Perhaps the primary language of this contingent, like Perez, is Spanish. This was a key element in the Ismael Valdes-Eric Karros feud of several years ago, during which the Times ran one pro-Karros story after another, filled with interviews of Karros' white teammates and nary a word from a Latin player.

**Let me be perfectly clear here. I'm not throwing out the racism card. I'm throwing out the language card. I'm saying that the reporters tend to pursue interviews with the people who give them the best quotes. Not suprisingly, those players tend to speak the same language as the reporter. It strikes me that the same thing may well be happening with the Perez controversy.**

So now what? With the Dodgers six days from the end of their season, does this even matter?

Check out Rich Hammond in the Daily News today:

It seems that the recent controversy over Odalis Perez skipping a start because of a chipped fingernail might have made something of an impact in the Dodgers' clubhouse.

Pitching coach Jim Colborn said after Sunday's game that Kazuhisa Ishii had a severe headache and vomited during the game, but apparently neither Colborn nor manager Jim Tracy knew about his ailments until afterward. Ishii gave up five runs in three-plus innings, but the Dodgers beat San Francisco 7-6.

"I don't know a thing about it, I only read about it on the injury report," Colborn said before Monday's game, referring to the post-game sheet given to coaches, off of which Colborn informed reporters of Ishii's ailment.

Ishii did not answer questions about his illness after Sunday's game and refused an interview request Monday. If nothing else, the timing is interesting, given the negative reaction Perez received from teammates when he said he didn't want to pitch last week in part because he didn't want to embarrass himself.

Do you want 20-year-old Edwin Jackson, knowing that the Dodgers may want him to pitch Saturday, to conceal soreness in his shoulder? Jackson's a gamer; we can see that. It needs to be made perfectly clear that he should tell the Dodgers if he has so much as achy facial hair. Otherwise, you might be looking at the next Darren Dreifort.

Decisions need to be made on the facts, not on emotion and speculation. And this policy needs to be applied to everyone - the tempermental players as well as the popular and easy-going ones.

Hammond, again:

Colborn said he wasn't concerned about Ishii's nondisclosure, and Ishii ran before Monday's game and appeared to be in good health. Still, Colborn said he didn't immediately see anything wrong with Ishii's mechanics Sunday and called the start "unusual."

"But he would tell me if he thought something was affecting his pitching," Colborn added. "All of (the pitchers) do that."

Since August 23, the New York Mets are:

2-0 vs. Los Angeles
5-1 vs. Atlanta
1-19 vs. Everyone Else

This is the team the Dodgers need to beat Florida this weekend.

3.00

If the Dodgers play 72 more innings in their final eight games this season, they must hold the opposition to 15 earned runs to go below the 3.00 mark. A season-ending total of 486 runs allowed would leave the team with an ERA of 2.9945.

A 16th earned run allowed - meaning a 2.00 ERA over their final eight games, would put the Dodger season ERA at 3.0007.

Behind, Behind, Behind

The Shawn Green-Alex Cora-Paul Lo Duca relay to save Eric Gagne and the Dodgers on Thursday is the play of the year for me. I nearly threw my shoulder out in a Tiger Woods fist pump after it happened. Too bad it didn't kick off a weekend surge...

Philadelphia and Florida left the door open with 1-2 weekends, but the Dodgers banged their heads against it anyway. They may be only two games back in the loss column - and with wins by the Dodgers and Braves tonight, it might only be one - but with the remaining schedule, a postseason appearance really becomes a miracle now...

Is everyone out there disgusted and appalled? I'm disappointed, but not disgusted. I think of myself as a cynical guy, but am I the only one who thinks there is long-term hope if they take the positives out of this season? I'm willing to air opposing views...

Will all be forgiven if the miracle occurs? If you're writing, answer that one too...

Odalis Perez is scheduled to return tonight after a week of attacks on his character. If he does well, the Times will probably attack him even more for missing his start last week. The paper's writers refuse to entertain the possibility that it might have been a prudent decision. I'm still amazed by the idea that it was better for Perez to gut out a poor performance rather than let the Dodger who had the best chance of pitching well pitch...

Of course, with teammates and managers like the Dodgers and Jim Tracy, who needs the press to add to Perez' angst? Tracy told Ken Gurnick at MLB.com, "There have been a lot of words thrown around the past few days, let's see some action," said Tracy. "He has an opportunity to make a statement for himself without a lot of explanation. Actions speak very loudly, and in a lot of cases, a lot louder than words." I can't for the life of me figure out what the statement is going to be...

Tracy made the correct decision benching Paul Lo Duca on Saturday, whatever Lo Duca's physical condition was. Right now, David Ross may be the better hitter, especially considering Ross' power...

Tracy does many things well, and some things not so well. For some people, this is an extraordinarly difficult concept...

Clay Landon passes along Peter Gammons' notebook item from ESPN.com that "there are just two many reports of friction between Jim Tracy and Dan Evans to dismiss them." Was the use of the word "two" a typo, or a subliminal indication that two reports would be too many? We're still waiting for the first person to go on the record with this. I think it's to the point where someone can do a full story on the rumors themselves and their implications for the future of the team, instead of just passing it along as "heard on the street" material...

In our 22nd year with season tickets, we finally won on Fan Appreciation Day - "we" being my brother, since I did not attend the game. He walked away with a $50 gift certificate to Albertson's and a promisory note (literally) for a Farmer John ham. My timing was indicative of a season in which the Dodgers played .500 ball with me in attendance and .593 ball without me. It was my worst season since 1999...

I can't talk about the parking lot shooting. I can't think of anything intelligent to say. I want to say that people should try to be nice to each other, but maybe that isn't intelligent. At Saturday's game, a guy stood up in front of us, looking toward the stands. After a couple of minutes, my Dad said, "Excuse me..." and gestured calmly so that the guy might duck or sit down. The guy responded with a sarcastic remark designed to make my Dad the villain in the situation. In society today, it seems like you often have only two choices: if you don't suffer in silence, you put yourself at risk. The stadium shooting is newsworthy for where it happened, or why it happened, but it is nothing, nothing new...

Florida beats Philadelphia today.
Los Angeles beats Arizona today.

Atlanta sweeps Florida this weekend.
Los Angeles sweeps San Francisco this weekend.
Philadelphia takes, say, two of three from Pittsburgh.

National League Wild Card Standings on Monday morning:

85-70 Florida
84-70 Los Angeles
85-71 Philadelphia

The Dodgers can pull even with Florida in the loss column with a week to go in the season. So they certainly can do it by season's end September 28, even without the above scenario taking place.

It's not that the Dodgers might not lose every game they play for the rest of the week. However, as much as it may frustrate those who are tired of the struggle, the Dodger playoff pursuit is not over.

I'm not saying this to be a rally monkey. I'm saying it only because it's true.

The Dodgers lost their past two games, but to two of the best pitchers in the National League. They probably will not face more talented pitchers the rest of the regular season, with the possible exception of Jason Schmidt on September 27.

The main caveat I will put in is that if the Dodgers are going to win this thing, they will probably have to take the wild card lead before their season-ending series in San Francisco. With the Marlins finishing at home with three games against New York, they aren't likely to let a lead slip away on the final weekend.

Forget about the Cubs - as I've been saying, the schedule should allow them to take the NL Central easily.

* * *
Update: Dodger postseason chances, from Baseball Prospectus
Today: 2.5 percent
September 17: 5.2 percent
September 16: 8.7 percent
September 15: 8.9 percent
September 14: 6.1 percent
September 12: 3.8 percent
September 11: 7.1 percent
September 10: 9.7 percent
September 9: 9.4 percent
September 8: 5.4 percent
September 7: 5.3 percent
September 6: 4.8 percent
September 5: 3.5 percent
September 4: 4.3 percent
September 3: 7.9 percent
September 2: 4.8 percent
September 1: 7.9 percent
August 31: 6.9 percent
August 30: 5.5 percent
August 29: 4.8 percent
August 28: 2.6 percent
August 26: 3.6 percent
August 25: 3.1 percent
August 24: 4.4 percent
August 23: 6.5 percent
August 22: 5.8 percent
August 21: 4.2 percent
August 20: 2.3 percent

(Division leaders account for the remaining wild card possibilities.)

Jeromy Burnitz has reached six times in September: a walk, three singles and two home runs. His OPS is .401.

Playing close games in a close race, every pitching matchup matters for the Dodgers. Here's a look at what they face the rest of this week, as they fight increasingly long odds that Florida, Philadelphia, Houston and Chicago will lose enough games to leave the wild card in the deck.

Tonight: With a spellbinding performance for the Dodgers last week, Edwin Jackson showed us last week how valuable a weapon unfamiliarity can be for a pitcher. Jackson will have to show he can be just as good the second time around, when he makes another emergency start against Arizona, this time in place of Odalis Perez.

Jackson will face Rookie-of-the-Year candidate Brandon Webb, who stood to be the losing pitcher in his first career game against the Dodgers last week, before the Diamondbacks posted their five-run eighth-inning rally.

Stakes are high - so high, in fact, that it's my opinion that if Jackson pitches well this very evening, he will ensure that Dan Evans returns as Dodger general manager in 2004. Amid all the speculation that Evans needed to transact the Dodgers into the playoffs this season, if Jackson can serve as evidence that Evans has a long-term plan, both the media and ownership will concede that Evans deserves more time to fruitionize that plan.

Of course, it won't hurt that a winning performance by Jackson will kindle Dodger playoff hopes.

Thursday: Wilson Alvarez faces Miguel Batista. Batista is the pitcher who effectively ended the Dodgers' hopes for the playoffs in 2001 by allowing only one earned run over 14 innings in consecutive late-September starts. Since 2000, Batista
has an ERA of 3.21 at Dodger Stadium.

Alvarez leads the National League in ERA since the All-Star Break (1.30 ERA in 55 1/3 innings). We're all waiting for the other shoe to drop on Alvarez, but unless his complete game Friday depleted Alvarez's tank, odds point to that Nike thumping his head on the road next week, if at all.

After facing a verifiable nemesis in Curt Schilling on Tuesday, those are two more tough pitching matchups for the Dodgers. When San Francisco comes to town, though, it could be a different story.

The Dodgers couldn't duck Schilling this week, but they will catch a break this weekend. Jason Schmidt of the Giants won't face the Dodgers, because his turn in the San Francisco rotation is tonight against San Diego. Schmidt is 3-0 with a 1.44 ERA against Los Angeles this year.

Friday: The Giants series is scheduled to kick off with Kevin Correia - a rookie, admittedly one who has a 2.43 ERA in 29 2/3 innings. Correia is set to face Kevin Brown.

Saturday: An injury-plagued Kirk Reuter follows - he has a 4.83 ERA and has not completed seven innings since June 1 - against Hideo Nomo.

Sunday: Jerome Williams, another rookie having a fine season with a 3.30 ERA, probably will face Kazuhisa Ishii. Like Correia, Williams has not yet faced the Dodgers in his career.

The final week: For many reasons, it doesn't make sense to look beyond this week at the pitching matchups. But one can't resist wondering whether the Dodgers might catch a break in its season-ending series with San Francisco, if the Giants decide that Schmidt should only get a few innings of work at most so that he is fresh for the playoffs.

Meanwhile, everyone's talking about Florida and Philadelphia, but take a look at the remaining NL schedule and tell me if you don't think the wild card won't be Houston or Chicago.

* * *

Update: Dodger postseason chances, from Baseball Prospectus
Today: 5.2 percent
September 16: 8.7 percent
September 15: 8.9 percent
September 14: 6.1 percent
September 12: 3.8 percent
September 11: 7.1 percent
September 10: 9.7 percent
September 9: 9.4 percent
September 8: 5.4 percent
September 7: 5.3 percent
September 6: 4.8 percent
September 5: 3.5 percent
September 4: 4.3 percent
September 3: 7.9 percent
September 2: 4.8 percent
September 1: 7.9 percent
August 31: 6.9 percent
August 30: 5.5 percent
August 29: 4.8 percent
August 28: 2.6 percent
August 26: 3.6 percent
August 25: 3.1 percent
August 24: 4.4 percent
August 23: 6.5 percent
August 22: 5.8 percent
August 21: 4.2 percent
August 20: 2.3 percent

(Division leaders account for the remaining wild card possibilities.)

Baseball Prospectus has added a disappointing disclaimer: "Because this analysis does not take into account head-to-head matchups, it may be less reliable from this point in the season onward."

* * *

Update: Dodger postseason chances, from Baseball Prospectus
Today: 8.7 percent
September 15: 8.9 percent
September 14: 6.1 percent
September 12: 3.8 percent
September 11: 7.1 percent
September 10: 9.7 percent
September 9: 9.4 percent
September 8: 5.4 percent
September 7: 5.3 percent
September 6: 4.8 percent
September 5: 3.5 percent
September 4: 4.3 percent
September 3: 7.9 percent
September 2: 4.8 percent
September 1: 7.9 percent
August 31: 6.9 percent
August 30: 5.5 percent
August 29: 4.8 percent
August 28: 2.6 percent
August 26: 3.6 percent
August 25: 3.1 percent
August 24: 4.4 percent
August 23: 6.5 percent
August 22: 5.8 percent
August 21: 4.2 percent
August 20: 2.3 percent

(Division leaders account for the remaining wild card possibilities.)

This next one isn't a letter, but it certainly fits in the rubric of the headline above. David Pinto at Baseball Musings is "flabbergasted" by the stats of tonight's Dodger starter, Kazuhisa Ishii, against tonight's Dodger opponent, Arizona.

The first thing I saw was that Ishii had a career record against the DBacks of 3-0 with a 1.22 ERA. But then I noticed the context. He's pitched 37 innings against the DBacks, and has walked 24 men! That's almost six per nine innings. How does that jibe with a 1.22 ERA?

...None of the 24 batters Ishii has walked has come around to score! The Diamondbacks have not been able to execute against Ishii, going 0 for 18 with runners in scoring position against him with eight walks.

It's probably all luck, but it will be fun to keep an eye on this game tonight to see if it continues.

• batting only .213 overall
  
• slugging only .281 overall
  
• batting only .140 with runners in scoring position
  
• slugging only .186 with runners in scoring position

• batting only .225 overall
  
• slugging only .352 overall
  
• batting only .156 with runners in scoring position
  
• slugging only .211 with runners in scoring position

I also wrote that in 2002, Ishii allowed only two home runs before May 31 - same as in 2003. In 2002, however, while his walks remained constant, Ishii allowed 18 home runs after May 31 (and until his season-ending injury in September 8). This season, he has allowed 11.

Ishii and Hideo Nomo are sixth and fourth in the league in walks allowed. But they are also highly ranked in lowest slugging percentage allowed. They simply do not appear to be giving into hitters, and hitters by and large have not been able to make them pay. Essentially, they're playing a game of chicken with the batters and winning.

As the morning greets me with some computer problems and nothing more profound than Wilson Alvarez's 0.66 home ERA (three earned runs in 40 2/3 innings), here are some letters:

* * *

First, Louis writes in response to my Monday post about Adrian Beltre.

Interesting post on Beltre....I was asking myself the same question while watching Friday's game. It doesn't seem like he's changed his approach at the plate very much. He isn't going the other way a whole lot, and the walk statisitic you posted shows he certainly isn't any more patient and selective at the plate in the 2nd half. He may be improving his ability to hit bad pitches, but to me that's not a good thing (although, setting aside the obvious criticisms/downside to his approach at the plate, it DOES take a lot of talent to be able to pull a breaking ball that is almost in the dirt into the left field bleachers, as I've seen him do several times).

That's why I think this offseason brings some difficult questions and answers about Beltre. Yes, his 2nd half has been excellent, and his end-of-the-season numbers will look OK, but do you, as the Dodgers, commit to a guy who's mental approach to hitting is so bad? And what about the fact that this approach hasn't really shown any significant signs of improvement after 5 seasons? Doesn't that have to seriously factor in to Evans' statistical projections?

In short I think Beltre will forever be a self-limiting player; tantalizing physical talent handcuffed by a lack of discipline at the plate. It's like the (typical?) girl who goes out with the "bad boy", thinking that she can change him. He says he'll call, he says he'll change, he says he'll be faithful, he says he'll get a job. It never works. I just hope that Adrian Beltre isn't the bad boy here and the Dodgers aren't those women (picture woman waiting by phone for the call that never comes and the Dodgers at the all-star break in 2004 looking at a 3rd baseman hitting .215).

I think the decision on Beltre will be made not in a vaccum, but in context with other player moves. I could see scenarios where the Dodgers decide they've had enough, and others where they can afford to give Beltre one more shot. Keep in mind that third base is a weak position throughout the majors right now.

There are differing schools of thought as to whether plate discipline can be taught. Sammy Sosa learned it; Raul Mondesi didn't. Assuming the Dodgers are smart enough to care, they have to figure out which school applies to Beltre.

Let's see what happens over the next two weeks...

* * *

Meanwhile, Dodger Thoughts' Maine Dodger fan, Kent Whitaker, fills us in on another analysis of Cy Young candidate Eric Gagne:

You may have had your fill of Eric Gagne-for-Cy Young notes, but I wanted to call your attention to an article in the Wall Street Journal that ran back on September 5th. Written by Allen St. John in his "By the Numbers" column, it was titled "How to Spell Relief". In the column, he discusses a stat called OFB (off-base percentage), which measures how effective a relief pitcher is at getting the job done. Gagne had an OFB of .804 in the article, tops in the majors. I haven't run the calculation to see what his OFB is now but at the time, he rated ahead of Seattle's Soriano (.790) and Atlanta's Smoltz (.771)
OFB is calculated by taking the number of outs a pitcher records and dividing it by the number of batters he faces. St. John goes on in the article to say that the stat can also assess entire bullpens. The Dodgers were tops in the majors (at that writing) with a .727 OFB, ahead of Seattle and Anaheim. By comparison, the Yankees bullpen had an OFB of .657.
Regards,
Kent Whitaker
Newcastle, ME (A snowball's throw from Waldoboro, Maine, where former Dodger Clyde Sukeforth passed away September 3, 2000)

Adrian Beltre is mashing the ball, no doubt. An .850 OPS after the All-Star Game - a 1.167 OPS in September.

During that time, however, his walks have decreased. He has walked nine times in more than 200 plate appearances since the All-Star Game - once in September.

Has he perfected the ability to hit bad balls, or will he slump once pitchers learn how not to give him anything to hit again?

Todd Hundley has had one at-bat since his home run against Colorado on September 5.

Koyie Hill has had no at-bats since his debut RBI double on the same day. His career average remains 1.000, with a 3.000 OPS.

Then, there's Dave Ross. Ross hadn't had a swing since September 2 until his two-homer game Sunday. In 113 at-bats, Ross has nine home runs - fifth on the team. He has two more home runs than Paul Lo Duca.

Lo Duca has two extra-base hits in September. He may be the blood and guts of the Dodger team, but he's got backups. It'll be interesting to see how he comes out against Schilling on Tuesday with two days off.

The Marlins. Could it really be the Marlins?

From World Series title to fire sale to another playoff appearance - all in the time since the Dodgers last made the playoffs?

On Priorities & Frivolities today, Robert Garcia Tagorda makes one point that I was going to make - that the Dodgers have upped their power recently - and another point that I hadn't realized - that Florida is outpitching them.

Do you realize that, in September, the Dodgers have hit the third most home runs among all National League teams -- just one behind Philadelphia and Colorado, who've hit 18? Meanwhile, their pitching has stayed sharp with a 2.89 ERA, which is second in the majors.

But here's one reason why they're still 3.5 games back in the wild card standings: Florida has been just as good. Its 2.27 ERA is tops in the majors. Though it's scored about as many runs (62) as the Dodgers have this month, it's allowed considerably fewer runs (28). The Marlins are outscoring their opponents by nearly three runs per game (5.17 vs. 2.33).

Of all the teams in the National League, the Marlins have the toughest remaining schedule, according to Baseball Prospectus. But Florida is apparently playing such good ball that the site now has the Marlins as the favorites to hold on for the wild card.

Still ...

Chicago still has enough of a schedule advantage to win the National League Central - in fact, it wouldn't shock me if they were in first place by Thursday, playing the Mets while the Astros are in Coors Field. Or, Houston could outpitch the Rockies in Colorado, putting both NL Central teams in playoff position if Florida starts to falter.

Of course, if Florida falters, that will mean Philadelphia has done something right.

And the Dodgers?

We'll see what happens after they face Curt Schilling. He's ready to go on Tuesday at Dodger Stadium. But in any case, it doesn't look like they'll be allowed to slacken their .667 pace (26-13) since August 2. If anything, they may have to extend their recent .765 run (13-4).

I'll be watching, even though it almost seems too much to ask. If the Dodgers somehow make the playoffs, boy, will they have earned it.

Update: Dodger postseason chances, from Baseball Prospectus
Today: 8.9 percent
September 14: 6.1 percent
September 12: 3.8 percent
September 11: 7.1 percent
September 10: 9.7 percent
September 9: 9.4 percent
September 8: 5.4 percent
September 7: 5.3 percent
September 6: 4.8 percent
September 5: 3.5 percent
September 4: 4.3 percent
September 3: 7.9 percent
September 2: 4.8 percent
September 1: 7.9 percent
August 31: 6.9 percent
August 30: 5.5 percent
August 29: 4.8 percent
August 28: 2.6 percent
August 26: 3.6 percent
August 25: 3.1 percent
August 24: 4.4 percent
August 23: 6.5 percent
August 22: 5.8 percent
August 21: 4.2 percent
August 20: 2.3 percent

(Division leaders account for the remaining wild card possibilities.)

Bob Timmermann, known to many as Bob T. of Baseball Primer, forwarded me his great, 4,600-word article from the Grandstand Baseball Annual 2002 describing the history of the Dodger-San Diego Padre rivalry.

After reading it, and eyeing a series against the Padres beginning tonight that once again looks hopeful on paper but hopeless psychologically, it struck me that the Padres have become the evil Dr. Loveless to the Dodgers' James T. West and Artemus Gordon in The Wild, Wild (National League) West.

Here are some highlights from Timmermann's comprehensive article:

• The rivalry is real but has yet to find its defining moment. Daily News columnist Kevin Modesti once asked San Diego manager Bruce Bochy for one, and Bochy replied, "To be honest with you. I canÕt remember any."
  
• The starting pitcher for the Padres in their first-ever game with the Dodgers was 1955 Dodger hero Johnny Podres, who came out of retirement to pitch for San Diego. Podres gave up six runs in the fifth inning and the Padres lost, 14-0.
  
• "Although the Padres could only muster a 52-110 record in their initial season, they did manage to derail the DodgersÕ pennant hopes in 1969. The 1969 NL West was actually a very competitive race as every team but the Padres was close in the month of September. On September 4, 1969 the Dodgers traveled to San Diego Stadium to play a four game series against the Padres. The Dodgers were in second place just one game behind division leader San Francisco. Much to the Dodgers' complete shock, the Padres swept the series."
  
• Sixteen of the Dodgers' Los Angeles-best 102 victories in 1974 came against San Diego. Dan Spillner got the only two Padre victories, both in late September.
  
• More recently, many of you will recall that what should have been "been one of the most dramatic games in the history of the NL," a 1996 season-ending showdown between the Dodgers and Padres, tied in their first pennant race with each other, was subverted because the losing team was guaranteed the wild card.

  Dodger manager Bill Russell, who had replaced Tommy Lasorda earlier in the year after a heart attack sent Lasorda to the front office and out of the dugout, and Bruce Bochy were conflicted about how to manage the game. Would they manage it like it was a game for all the marbles? Obviously, it wasn't. Both teams would have to play again in two days. Bochy opted to replace his scheduled starter, Joey Hamilton, with Bob Tewksbury. Russell stayed with Ramon Martinez, but removed him after just one inning.

  Much to both managers' dismay, the game went to extra innings scoreless. In the 11th inning, Chris Gwynn, a former Dodger, better known in L.A. as "The Gwynn Who Didn't Hit Much" came off the bench to double in (Steve) Finley and his brother Tony for a 2-0 lead. Trevor Hoffman pitched a perfect 11th inning to give the Padres their second NL West title.

  This could have been the rivalry's defining moment. Instead ... it's a footnote.

* * *

Jay Jaffe at The Futility Infielder has apparently been doing some housecleaning. You might enjoy walking through the treasures he found from his 1989 trip to see four spring training games at Vero Beach. (Scroll down to "Buried Treasure (Part II).")

I myself have my own picture of Manny Mota on his bike from my 1993 trip to the Grapefruit League - it's really a great sight.

* * *

Update: Dodger postseason chances, from Baseball Prospectus
Today: 3.8 percent
September 11: 7.1 percent
September 10: 9.7 percent
September 9: 9.4 percent
September 8: 5.4 percent
September 7: 5.3 percent
September 6: 4.8 percent
September 5: 3.5 percent
September 4: 4.3 percent
September 3: 7.9 percent
September 2: 4.8 percent
September 1: 7.9 percent
August 31: 6.9 percent
August 30: 5.5 percent
August 29: 4.8 percent
August 28: 2.6 percent
August 26: 3.6 percent
August 25: 3.1 percent
August 24: 4.4 percent
August 23: 6.5 percent
August 22: 5.8 percent
August 21: 4.2 percent
August 20: 2.3 percent

(Division leaders account for the remaining wild card possibilities.)

"Dodgers general manager Dan Evans and manager Jim Tracy barely speak these days, blaming each other for the offensive woes. Third baseman Robin Ventura is caught up in the power struggle and has barely played since being acquired."

This item surprised and puzzled me, to say the least, but if it's true it's a big deal. This morning, I sent Nightengale an email that raised the following questions:

1) How is Evans "blaming" Tracy for the Dodger offensive woes? Is he saying that he's playing the wrong guys? Setting the wrong lineups? Not teaching them how to hit?

2) Ventura isn't playing, true, but that's because Tracy is playing another Evans' acquisition, Fred McGriff, and the Dodgers' hottest hitter, Adrian Beltre. In general, half or more of Tracy's lineup is composed of acquisitions by Evans: Jeromy Burnitz, Dave Roberts, Cesar Izturis, McGriff, and sometimes Jolbert Cabrera. And I don't think anyone's suggesting that Green or Lo Duca should be benched. How is it that Ventura being on the bench is reflective of a power struggle? Does Evans want Ventura to play over either McGriff or Beltre?

3) Finally, if it's possible for you to answer this, did this item come from your own observations, or a source or more within the organization, or somewhere else?

Nightengale replied a few hours later:

The source is a high-ranking Dodger official, and yes, Evans is blaming Tracy if they don't make the playoffs, and Tracy is blaming Evans if they don't make the playoffs. Evans would like Ventura to play more, but Tracy doesn't want him playing...

It has turned into a nasty situation...

In any case, I had always assumed that the fates of Tracy and Evans were tied together. Ultimately, any split that has materialized between them is the result of excessive expectations from others, and/or from themselves, that they should reach the playoffs in 2003.

No matter what happens this season, if the Dodgers can clear away the bile, they have every reason to enter the 2003-04 offseason more optimistic than they entered the last one. They know more clearly what their problems are, they will have some dollars to spend, and they have a farm system that is a year closer to contributing significantly.

Put simply, the simple act of "blaming" is counterproductive at this point.

But if the bond between Tracy and Evans is in jeopardy, the long-awaited calm that has come to the Dodger staff is in danger of disintegrating.

In reference to 20-year-old prospect Edwin Jackson's winning debut Tuesday, the Times says in the headline of Ross Newhan's column today, "So That's Why Evans Didn't Give Away Farm."

But even in this column, Dodger general manager Dan Evans can't escape criticism from Newhan:

[Player development is] a job too long sacrificed by the Dodgers, who at some point had to pause, step back and give their system time to revive.

There are those, of course, who will maintain that the club's 2003 financial investment demanded that some of that future be sacrificed to obtain a hitter.

Considering the way Edwin Jackson pitched in his debut, however, maybe the criticism is backward.

Maybe the beleaguered Evans should be asked: Why wasn't he up sooner?

You know, I never, never would have expected to find myself in the position of chief defender of Dodger management, but there is a "They can do no right" attitude permeating the Times that needs to be, at a minimum, mitigated.

To decry the rash behavior of the Dodger management of the past, then insist that the team should have done something immediately - no holds or payroll limits barred - to save this season, future be damned, does not stand as rational reasoning.

* * *

Update: Dodger postseason chances, from Baseball Prospectus
Today: 3.8 percent
September 11: 7.1 percent
September 10: 9.7 percent
September 9: 9.4 percent
September 8: 5.4 percent
September 7: 5.3 percent
September 6: 4.8 percent
September 5: 3.5 percent
September 4: 4.3 percent
September 3: 7.9 percent
September 2: 4.8 percent
September 1: 7.9 percent
August 31: 6.9 percent
August 30: 5.5 percent
August 29: 4.8 percent
August 28: 2.6 percent
August 26: 3.6 percent
August 25: 3.1 percent
August 24: 4.4 percent
August 23: 6.5 percent
August 22: 5.8 percent
August 21: 4.2 percent
August 20: 2.3 percent

(Division leaders account for the remaining wild card possibilities.)

Twenty years ago today, Dodger Stadium hosted its greatest game.

It began swathed in bright blue skies and triple-digit temperatures. When it ended, 228 crazy brilliant minutes later, shadows palmed most of the playing field, and every Dodger fan who witnessed the spectacle found themselves near joyous collapse.

The game was between the Dodgers of Steve Sax and Pedro Guerrero, of Greg Brock and Mike Marshall ... and the Braves of Dale Murphy, of Bruce Benedict, of Brad Komminsk.

In the end, however, it came down to one man. A rookie named R.J. Reynolds.

A Brave Battle
Los Angeles entered the game with a two-game lead in the National League Western Division over Atlanta. Their battle for the division crown came a year after a near-epic contest in which the Dodgers rallied from a 10 1/2-game deficit to the Braves in 12 days and took the lead, only to falter and have a home run by the Giants' Joe Morgan off Terry Forster knock them out on the final day of the season.

On September 11, 1983, coming off an extra-inning loss to Atlanta the night before, Los Angeles took the field behind starting pitcher Rick Honeycutt, making his fifth start for the team since being acquired from Texas in exchange for Dave Stewart, a player to be named later and $200,000. (Supplementary information in this article courtesy of Retrosheet.

After a scoreless first inning, the Dodgers tallied two runs in the second off Braves starter Len Barker. With two out, catcher Jack Fimple, near the height of his brief but shining heyday as a fan favorite, doubled home Brock and Marshall.

Murphy brickwalled the Dodger momentum in the next inning, displaying the form that left his contemporaries certain he would become a Hall of Famer. In the top of the inning, Murphy hit a three-run home run, his 32nd of the season. In the bottom of the inning, he crashed into the center-field wall, glove extended above and beyond it, to rob Guerrero of a two-run homer.

Stunned at the end of the third, the crowd had no idea that the frenzy was only beginning.

Four on the Floor
With the kind of mathematical symmetry normally found in Schoolhouse Rock cartoons, the Dodgers used four pitchers in the fourth.

Honeycutt got the first two batters out in the top of the fourth, but then gave up back-to-back singles to Jerry Royster and Rafael Ramirez. Having seen his starting pitcher allow seven hits, two walks and a hit batsman in 3 2/3 innings, and with Murphy again at the plate, Dodger manager Tommy Lasorda brought in Pat Zachry.

Ramirez stole second base, and then Zachry walked Murphy.

With the bases loaded, Lasorda made another move, bringing lefthander Rich Rodas - in his second major league game - to face Chris Chambliss with the bases loaded.

Rodas walked Chambliss to force in the Braves' fourth run, then allowed a two-run single to Komminsk that made the score 6-2 Braves.

The fourth Dodger pitcher of the inning came in ... a young, young-looking guy by the name of Orel Hershiser. Compared to Rodas, Hershiser was a veteran. This was the Bulldog-to-be's third major-league game. To the naked eye, Lasorda was trying to win the way Buttermaker relied on Ogilvie and Miguel in The Bad News Bears.

Hershiser loaded the bases again with a walk to Benedict. The ninth batter of the inning, third baseman (no-not-that) Randy Johnson, came up with a chance to bury the Dodgers, but popped out to his hot corner counterpart Guerrero to end the top of the fourth.

The score stayed at 6-2 for two more innings. Marshall and Brock, who combined to reach base seven times in this game, led off the bottom of the fourth with singles. Reynolds, however, grounded into a double play. Fimple followed with a walk off Barker, but future Braves hero Sid Bream grounded out batting for Hershiser.

Burt Hooton, a longtime Dodger starter who went to the bullpen shortly after the acquisition of Honeycutt, became the team's fifth pitcher in the fifth. The teams gave the fans a breather with an uneventful inning, and Hooton retired the Braves in order in the top of the sixth.

Then the surreal moment arrived.

No, You're Not Even Warm
After Marshall flew out to open the bottom of the sixth, Brock walked, Reynolds singled him to second, and the Midas behind the recent Yankee dynasty, Atlanta manager Joe Torre, replaced Barker with Tommy Boggs.

Rick Monday, his heroic days behind him, batted for Fimple and was called out on strikes for the second out. But Ken Landreaux, the Dodgers' regular center fielder, pinch-hit for Hooton and walked to load the bases.

Torre went to the mound and signaled for a pitcher to replace Boggs. None other than Terry Forster - the fall guy of 1982 - emerged from the right-field bullpen.

But then a strange thing happened. Torre signaled again - for a right-handed pitcher.

The strange thing was not that Torre wanted a righty to face Sax. It was that he wanted a righty when none had been warming up.

On the telecast, Vin Scully reported that Tony Brizzolara had warmed up earlier in the game, but in this inning, it had clearly been Forster who was backing up Boggs. Brizzolara had been cooling off for some time.

As a puzzled Forster stood on the edge of the warning track and the outfield grass, looking back and forth between the mound and the bullpen, Torre insisted that Brizzolara come in to face Sax.

In Brizzolara came. He threw four pitches to Sax - in the dirt, low, low and high. In the Dodgers' third run came, and out went Torre to replace Brizzolara with Forster.

Atlanta was rattled, a thespian who had forgotten his lines on Broadway, but Los Angeles got the minimum out of the comedy, as shortstop Bill Russell struck out against Forster and left the bases loaded.

Joe Beckwith, the losing pitcher in the previous night's game, laid anchor for the Dodger bullpen, throwing three innings and scattering two singles and a walk. Meanwhile, the mythic Donnie Moore provided a dose of calm for the Braves, retiring the Dodger side in order in the seventh and the eighth.

And then came the bottom of the ninth.

With a Flick of the Wrists, It Begins
Jose Morales, 38 years and 116 pinch hits old, led off, batting for Beckwith. Against a change from Moore, Morales' off-balance swing, arms well behind his hips, wrists trailing his arms, presaged Kirk Gibson's flick at the backdoor slider from Dennis Eckersley five years and one month later. Morales' ball flew into the left-field corner, and Morales easily won a battle of his old legs and Brett Butler's weak arm, cruising into second with a stand-up double, and giving the master improvisationalist, Scully, his modest opening line ...

He just kind of felt for the ball.

Dave Anderson entered the game to run for Morales. As Sax batted (with S. Sax on the back of his uniform, to distinguish himself from his brother Dave for the easily confused), the television camera found a much-in-need-of-SlimFast Lasorda, sitting near Dodger coach Monty Basgall.

Lasorda, Basgall dying a little bit in the Dodger dugout. Tommy's not feeling well anyway. He's got a cold for about a month.

Gene Garber, sporting the kind of beard you just don't see ballplayers wear anymore, was warming up in the bullpen as Moore went 3-1 to Sax. One inside pitch later, Torre was out of the dugout with a hook for Moore. As Moore, the victim of a devastating playoff home run in October 1986, left the game, Tom Niedenfuer, his October 1983 counterpart, began warming up for in the Dodger bullpen for the 10th inning.

Russell, sporting the kind of physique you just don't see ballplayers compete with anymore, then struck out in his second consecutive critical at-bat.

Dusty Baker, in his last season with the Dodgers before his acrimonious departure, was the batter with one out and two on. Even Baker, with more than 200 career home runs, was thin back then.

Baker swung and missed at Garber's sidearm delivery, then took one low and outside. On the 1-1 pitch, Baker hit a pop fly that fell between second baseman Royster and right-fielder Claudell Washington, a defensive replacement for Komminsk. The bases were loaded with the tying runs.

This crowd is on its feet and pleading. They're all getting up. It is that time of day. Never mind the seventh-inning stretch. This is the wire.

Cecil Espy came in to run for Baker, and Guerrero came up to the plate. His at-bat took more than six minutes.

'This Is Hanging Time'
Guerrero swung and missed at the first pitch, took one low and outside, then hit a grounder just foul.

Boy, what an exhausting finish to a long afternoon at the ballpark. Well, it figured the Dodgers and the Braves are gonna put you through the ringer, right down to the last day. So naturally, they do it right down to the last minute.

Guerrero took one low, evening the count, 2-2. Then he grounded one by third base, just foul.

The table is set and the big man is in the chair.

Pitch No. 6 of the at-bat was six inches off the ground, outside - and still fouled off by Guerrero.

Boy, he was late. He just did get a piece of that. After you get that palmball trickery of Garber ... it was almost in Benedict's mitt.

No. 7: another grounder, just foul.

And the tension remains ...

With Garber about to throw the eighth pitch, Guerrero stepped out at the last moment and called time. Vinny, laughing:

Oh yeah, these are tough to take, I tell you what. Guerrero just had to back out. I mean, this is hanging time. Woo!

Garber bounced the resin bag back and forth on the front and back of his right hand. Guerrero stepped back in, and Garber threw. Low - ball three.

It is almost too much to take ...

Guerrero went back in for the ninth pitch of the at-bat, then called time again.

You can just imagine the pressure - you'd have to be a block of wood not to feel it.

Here came the pitch. Two feet outside. Guerrero flung the bat away backhanded and strutted to first base.

Anderson scored the first run of the inning, cutting the Braves' lead to 6-4. The ballpark shadows have just reached Garber. Third-base coach Joe Amalfitano counseled the next batter, Marshall.

Garber slipped on his right foot in delivering the first pitch outside for ball one. The next pitch was outside as well.

Marshall then hit a long drive to right. Washington, with his glove on his right hand, went toward the wall with his back to the right-field stands. But the ball was slicing behind him, and Washington turned his body 180 degrees to try to find and catch the ball in the late-afternoon sun.

It didn't take. The drive landed right at the base of the wall. Murphy, coming over to back up the play, nearly collided with Washington as the latter threw the ball back. Two runs scored on Marshall's double - tying the game at 6 - but Guerrero was held at third. On-deck hitter Brock stood near home plate, raising his hands behind his head like he thought Guerrero could have scored, but the replay showed that Amalfitano probably was wise to hold Guerrero.

With the winning run on third and first base open, Brock was walked intentionally - the first wide one barely snagged by a staggering Benedict.

The batter will be the kid, R.J. Reynolds, with a chance to win it.

Holding Back to the Last Second
Reynolds stood at home, looking at Amalfitano, and stretched the bat over both his shoulders.

And now, with the bases loaded, the infield is up, the outfield looks like a softball game, and the batter is R.J. Reynolds.

The first pitch is outside. Reynolds looked at Amalfitano again.

Gene Garber is battling to stay afloat.

If this was a game of Bad News Bears moments, this was Ahmad's.

Reynolds didn't give it away. In slow motion, the bat doesn't even start to come off Reynolds' shoulder until Garber's pitching arm is all the way back.

But then ... Reynolds' left hand finds the barrel of the bat. He lays the bat forward, relaxedly, at a slight downward diagonal pointing below his waist, then corrects it to a straight horizontal line to meet the ball.

Reynolds pauses a millisecond to watch. Garber's follow-through carries him toward the third-base side of the mound, but the bunt rolls toward the first base side.

The SQUEEZE! And here comes the run!!

By the time Garber reverses field and lunges for the ball, Guerrero is 15 feet away from home plate. Before Garber is even upright, Guerrero touches home, banging his hands together in exultation.

He squeezed it in!

Backs of jerseys from our past - Yeager, Thomas, Maldonado, Landestoy, Rivera - come out to rain congratulations on Guerrero. Lasorda risks smothering Reynolds in a headlock.

By the way, if you are keeping score in this madhouse, not only did R.J. squeeze, he got a base hit and an RBI. And Guerrero brought the winning run home. BEDLAM at Dodger Stadium.

Replays and images of celebrations pass in front of us for several seconds, without comentary - you know this is Vinny's way, to let the moment be the moment. We catch Ross Porter, in short-sleeved shirt and tie, is in the dugout to prepare to interview Reynolds.

Finally, Vin is ready to speak again.

The pictures told it all. There isn't any way I could improve on the picture. What a story. The squeeze in the ninth. The Dodgers score four times and pull it out and beat the Braves, 7 to 6. They show the squeeze on Diamond Vision and the crowd, EUPHORIC in its joy, roars again.

R.J. Reynolds has put the Dodgers in the right direction.

And so he had. The victory put the Dodgers three games up in the NL West, and three games up in the NL West is how the Dodgers finished the 1983 season.

Reynolds was a hero. A baseball hero, at least.

And a game for the ages, a game worth remembering, I hope, even on the saddest of anniversaries, was over.

For the latest, greatest look at potential playoff tiebreaker suggestions, mouse your way over to Christian Ruzich's free article at Baseball Prospectus.

I was going to break this down as it potentially affects the Dodgers, but time is short and it's too damn complicated. Suffice it to say, if there are multi-team ties, it's going to make the California recall election look sedate.

Is it possible, after all the hubbub about Jack Clark and George Hendrick, that the solution to the Dodger hitting woes was Manny Mota and his magic bat?

My brother writes:

This man, in my opinion, can do no wrong. Still my favorite Dodger after all these years. And you can quote me.

Reader Mushtaq from Boston writes:

I read (Kevin) ModestiÕs piece with interest; I think contribution to wins is an excellent way of looking at how valuable Gagne is. Here are three reasons I think he is somewhat undervaluing GagneÕs performance:

1) I think that the blown save to win ratio is more like 4:1 than it is 2:1.

2) Modesti is not counting GagneÕs help in winning ball games in which he does not get the save. Note that he would also get some blame for losses in which he pitched. Similarly, Gagne is not credited for the games in which he has won.

3) Gagne has been able on a couple of occasions to pitch 4 games in a row; something that very few other closers are able to do. As such, it is probably not completely fair to say that another closer would be able to successfully save 42 of 49 opportunities because those closers would probably have a couple fewer opportunities.

Thoughts?

1) I don't know who's right. I'm not sure it makes that much of a difference in the larger argument.

2) Again, I don't know how significant this is. Gagne's performance in non-save situations has in fact been underrated, but I don't think that you could compare it favorably to, say, Hideo Nomo or Kevin Brown's role in no-decisions that the Dodgers ultimately win.

3) A valid point. But one that only establishes Gagne's greatness as a closer, not one that locks him in as a Cy Young winner.

As a big fan of Gagne's, I still think Modesti's piece is pretty dead on. Is Gagne great? Undoubtedly. If you could only have one pitcher this season, would you take Gagne over a guy who can give you 200 innings, like Prior or even Nomo? Possibly, but certainly debatable.

Fun to debate, though. With Smoltz, Nomo and Brown fading from contention, Gagne is certainly in the final four for the Cy Young with Jason Schmidt, Mark Prior, and unfortunately, Russ Ortiz.

A couple of weeks ago, the wild-card race looked like a blooper reel. Now, it's more like Web Gems.

The Dodgers have won 10 of 12. The Phillies have won 10 of 12. The Marlins have won 10 of 12.

In the words of Col. Peron in Evita, "So what happens now?"

You know that aside from playing Arizona, epic struggles await the Dodgers in the form of their biggest psych-out teams, San Francisco and San Diego.

After a day game against the Mets today, Florida plays 13 consecutive games against the top two teams in its division, Atlanta and Philadelphia, before finishing with three against New York.

The Phillies, on the other hand, have 10 games left with their top division rivals, but also three against Pittsburgh and three against Cincinnati.

From a Los Angeles perspective, this still looks like Philadelphia's race to win. People in the City of Angels tend to be mighty afraid of the Padres.

And the pendulum has swung both ways with the Dodgers all season:

W-L ... Dates
9-13 March 31- April 24
35-16 April 25 - June 21
10-26 June 22 - August 2
23-11 August 3 - September 9
?-? September 9 - September 28

But the Dodgers have been conquering some demons, real and imagined, over the past week. If they find a way to expose the last-placedness that lies within San Diego, we may witness somethin' somethin'.

So said Vin Scully about Edwin Jackson last night, and I couldn't agree more. Especially because Vin was talking not only about Jackson's pitching, but his smile.

Call me a sentimental fool, but there is nothing like seeing a young baseball player thrilled. And to see that ballplayer balance his excitement with poise - that's pretty much the pinnacle of enjoyment for me as a fan.

If it weren't for the television coverage and the 36,000 people in attendance, it would have been the same as watching a second-grader excel in the lead role of Tomato in the school play, Les Vegetables.

Anyway, it was a night the most casual observer could appreciate. As I wrote in April, a large part of appreciating baseball is just understanding the characters in the movie.

As for Jackson's moundsmanship ...

In his six innings against Arizona, Jackson allowed four hits, struck out four - and in a particularly amazing feat for a pitcher who walked or hit nearly four batters per nine innings in AA ball, he walked no one.

The righthander threw 80 pitches, 49 for strikes. He did not throw many first-pitch strikes: 11 out of 22 batters faced. But on only three occasions did he reach a 2-0 count, and only once did he go to 3-0. In fact, he went to three balls on only three batters.

He threw with heat - reports said he reached the high 90s - and movement. He had the requisite pitch tailing down and away that always foils batters like Raul Mondesi (who struck out twice against Jackson and once against Eric Gagne). Jackson also had a pitch that moved outside to inside on righthanded batters, almost like a screwball.

With Andy Ashby following Brian Jordan on the disabled highway out of Los Angeles, speculation has arisen that the Dodgers would add Jackson to a potential postseason roster in the same manner that the Angels added Francisco Rodriquez last season. Don't count on this happening.

For one thing, the Dodgers seem very conscious of nurturing Jackson, and aware of the risks of stressing Jackson's arm at age 20. Additionally, the Dodger staff is deeper than the Angel staff was in 2002 - a guy like Steve Colyer, who throws hard and from the left side, seems like a more likely addition. And that's assuming that the Dodgers even went with 11 pitchers in a postseason that has more off days than the regular season does.

But with Hideo Nomo's return date uncertain, and Kazuhisa Ishii's September performance unsteady, there is every possibility that we haven't seen the last of Edwin Jackson and his young man smile this season.

With two men on in the top of the eighth inning of a tie game Monday night in Phoenix, Jeromy Burnitz swung at a pitch that was headed spiraling down toward Lima, Peru.

Veteran baseball players deserve some rope, but sometimes enough is enough. When a player approaches a critical plate appearance with the focus of a pre-repair Hubble Telescope, sometimes you have to get up off the bench, or in my case, couch.

Twelve inches from the TV screen, I got in Burnitz's face and demanded that he focus.

And the rest was history. A game-winning three-run home run.

* * *

Kevin Brown on Monday: 6 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 5 K, Game Score 55

Russ Ortiz on Monday: 6 IP, 3 H, 4 R, 5 BB, 5 K Game Score 50

But if you ask Joe Morgan, Russ Ortiz is clearly the better pitcher. Why? Because even though Ortiz went out and allowed four runs in the first inning of his game, his Atlanta Brave teammates rallied to score five runs off Kevin Millwood in the next six innings, so Ortiz got the victory.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers didn't score their winning run until the inning after Brown left. So Brown doesn't get the victory. And that's the most important stat when evaluating pitchers, according to Morgan.

Honestly, you could just as effectively judge pitchers by barometric pressure readings as win-loss records.

* * *

I don't know if there is a better newspaper columnist writing about the Dodgers than Kevin Modesti of the Daily News. Modesti brings solid perspective to the Eric Gagne for Cy Young debate today, looking at both sides of the issue even-handedly. (I think that's redundant on my part, but you get the idea.) Too many writers are over-eager to take a dramatic stand. Modesti will go as far as he can, but without leaving reason behind.

* * *

Vin Scully pointed out that not only is it Edwin Jackson's 20th birthday today, it is Randy Johnson's 40th birthday tomorrow. Almost perfect, but perfect enough.

Johnson has not allowed fewer baserunners than innings pitched since his no-decision against the Dodgers on July 25. Here is his game log for the season.

Perhaps the most encouraging news surrounding Jackson is that instead of letting him start on the final day of the regular season, with a chance to earn a Southern League strikeout title that management could have trumpeted to the press, the Dodgers decided he needed to rest. It's scary to ponder whether Jackson's game inactivity will combine with rookie jitters and the fact that he was only a 3.70 ERA pitcher in AA to create a combustible major league debut tonight, but at least I'm not scared of what might happen if he does well.

Jeff Elliott of the Jacksonville Times-Union raises the question of whether the Dodgers might start Koyie Hill, who was Jackson's starting catcher for most of the season at Jacksonville and is also now on the major-league roster. Interesting notion, especially with Paul Lo Duca banged up, but my guess is that the team will want a veteran influence behind the plate.

* * *

Since the All-Star Break ...

Adrian Beltre has more home runs (12) than walks (8).

Beltre is tied for third in the league in RBI.

Shawn Green has an on-base percentage of .402.

Mike Kinkade has three hits and has been hit by three pitches.

Jeromy Burnitz is second on the Dodgers with nine home runs.

Dave Roberts has been caught stealing 43 percent of his 21 attempts. The rest of the team has been caught 30 percent of its 20 attempts.

* * *

Update: Dodger postseason chances, from Baseball Prospectus
Today: 9.4 percent
September 8: 5.4 percent
September 7: 5.3 percent
September 6: 4.8 percent
September 5: 3.5 percent
September 4: 4.3 percent
September 3: 7.9 percent
September 2: 4.8 percent
September 1: 7.9 percent
August 31: 6.9 percent
August 30: 5.5 percent
August 29: 4.8 percent
August 28: 2.6 percent
August 26: 3.6 percent
August 25: 3.1 percent
August 24: 4.4 percent
August 23: 6.5 percent
August 22: 5.8 percent
August 21: 4.2 percent
August 20: 2.3 percent

(Division leaders account for the remaining wild card possibilities.)

The Dodgers' run of nine wins in 11 games has raised their wild-card chances to a high since Dodger Thoughts has been tracking them. Baseball Prospectus' formula also finds for the first time in this period that the Dodgers should play better than .500 ball the rest of the way.

Less than three weeks ago, I had reason to post a list of the all-time best games at the plate for baseball's worst regular hitter, Cesar Izturis. Now, the game's most unlikely leadoff man has topped them all.

The way Izturis lost out on hitting for the cycle, tagged out at second by a hair, can only be compared to a pitcher losing a perfect game on an infield tapper by the 27th batter.

In 67 appearances at the No. 1 spot in the lineup, Izturis is now batting .354, basing .373 (thanks to his two big walks), slugging .538 and OPSing .911.

Edwin and Ramon

Martinez made his debut as a 20-year-old in the championship season of 1988 and threw seven shutout innings before allowing a run in the eighth of a game the Dodgers won in extra innings over the Giants.

The game, however, that imprinted itself in my mind forever came the following year. Martinez did not start 1989 with the Dodgers, who began the season following their last World Series title with a rotation of Orel Hershiser, Fernando Valenzuela, Tim Belcher, Tim Leary and Mike Morgan. On June 5, however, needing an extra pitcher for a doubleheader in Atlanta, the Dodgers called up Martinez. He threw a shutout, allowing six hits and one walk while striking out nine. Despite the sterling performance, the Dodgers sent Martinez straight back to Albuquerque after the game, and he did not return for good to the Dodger rotation for another five weeks.

It's safe to say that Martinez began his career in a saner environment than Jackson, who by starting the game on his 20th birthday, will become the youngest Dodger pitcher since Fernando Valenzuela in 1980 and the youngest Dodger starting pitcher since ... Dick Calmus. (Ever heard of him? Calmus was 19 years, 8 1/2 months old when he started and lost to the Milwaukee Braves on August 23, 1963.)

The 1988 season was a crazy one for the Dodgers, as in crazy fun. This season has just been crazy.

The Dodgers continue to hang in the wild card race. Manager Jim Tracy even pronounced Los Angeles an "excellent team" in the Times today - this based mainly on the fact that the Dodgers actually scored some runs in ... wait for it ... Coors Field. Admittedly, the Dodgers did much better this weekend than they had in other recent forays to Denver.

Now the Dodgers head to Arizona. Amid all the hullaballoo that Jackson is facing the great Randy Johnson, few seem to have noticed that Johnson is at best the No. 4 starter in the Diamondback rotation. Brandon Webb is by one measurement the leading pitcher in the National League. Curt Schilling has recovered from injuries to regain most of his former form. And in games started by tonight's Arizona pitcher, Miguel Batista, the Diamondbacks are 17-8.

The Diamondbacks are just about out of the wild card race, but they gave San Francisco a tough time in Pac Bell Park over the weekend and are still a tough opponent for the Dodgers and Jackson.

Jackson went 7-7 with a 3.70 ERA for the AA Jacksonville Suns. (Yeah, he's so good, the town appears to have named itself after the pitcher.) He struck out 157 in 148 1/3 innings, but walked 53 - which makes him a near-perfect replacement for the wild and wooly Hideo Nomo.

Jackson was not even the best pitcher on the Suns. That was Joel Hanrahan, who led the Southern League in ERA at 2.43. In addition, Jackson's ERA was higher than Jacksonville's team ERA of 3.50. However, Jackson was second in the league in strikeouts, and apparently it is on that figure that the Dodgers are pinning their hopes.

Anecdotally, pitchers making their debuts can confound hitters who aren't used to their motion - assuming those pitchers can get the ball over the plate. So there is every reason for the Dodgers to hope that Jackson's debut will be more Ramon Martinezesque than Dick Calmusish.

Whether or not Los Angeles can bring their Coors Field offense to Phoenix remains to be seen.

* * *

Update: Dodger postseason chances, from Baseball Prospectus
Today: 5.4 percent
September 7: 5.3 percent
September 6: 4.8 percent
September 5: 3.5 percent
September 4: 4.3 percent
September 3: 7.9 percent
September 2: 4.8 percent
September 1: 7.9 percent
August 31: 6.9 percent
August 30: 5.5 percent
August 29: 4.8 percent
August 28: 2.6 percent
August 26: 3.6 percent
August 25: 3.1 percent
August 24: 4.4 percent
August 23: 6.5 percent
August 22: 5.8 percent
August 21: 4.2 percent
August 20: 2.3 percent

(Division leaders account for the remaining wild card possibilities.)

Defying the pace they set in June, the Dodgers hit their 100th home run Saturday.

And as I write this today, in scoring their second run of the game, the Dodgers scored their 500th run of the season. Finally.

* * *

Update: Dodger postseason chances, from Baseball Prospectus
Today: 5.3 percent
September 6: 4.8 percent
September 5: 3.5 percent
September 4: 4.3 percent
September 3: 7.9 percent
September 2: 4.8 percent
September 1: 7.9 percent
August 31: 6.9 percent
August 30: 5.5 percent
August 29: 4.8 percent
August 28: 2.6 percent
August 26: 3.6 percent
August 25: 3.1 percent
August 24: 4.4 percent
August 23: 6.5 percent
August 22: 5.8 percent
August 21: 4.2 percent
August 20: 2.3 percent

(Division leaders account for the remaining wild card possibilities.)

Ken Gurnick at MLB.com gets to be the first to publish that the Dodgers have designated for assignment (i.e., jettisoned) Scott Mullen, Larry Barnes ... and Daryle Ward.

Talk about an acquisition gone sour. Talk about putting the dis in disenchanted.

Ward had one extra-base hit and three walks in 52 games for the Dodgers. His final numbers: .183 batting average, .211 on-base percentage, .193 slugging percentage, .403 OPS.

And yet, don't be surprised if some team goes after Ward for the stretch run ...

* * *

He may have only 35 plate appearances this season, but man, Todd Hundley has hit two huge home runs for the Dodgers - both as a pinch-hitter.

His three-run shot Friday night was the turning point of the Dodgers' remarkable victory, especially in light of my Friday morning entry highlighting how hopeless Los Angeles had played on the road against divisional opponents. (The one game I picked as pivotal this season, the Dodgers staged one of their most stunning rallies.)

Hundley also hit a game-winning, three-run home run in the bottom of the eighth inning in a 4-3 victory over San Diego on April 17.

* * *

Faithful reader Louis writes in response to Friday's somewhat disgruntled entry:

You're right, there just ain't much mystery about this year's team. Hasn't been since the All-Star break. But there's finally some light at the end of this tunnel of mediocrity, as you wrote about a couple of days ago (here and here). We didn't trade any top prospects for the quick fix - as the Bill Plaschkes and T.J. Simers of the world practically the begged the team to do. While Evans didn't truly recognize the reality of this season (mediocre team with little chance of reaching the playoffs), he at least kept our existing prospects. As I've said before, if he had recognized what this team was and what it wasn't, he could've been a big-time seller at the deadline and gotten some serious value for any number of our pitchers - thereby improving our organizational depth. But I can understand why he didn't do that; there are business and public relations realities to be considered here. And with each passing year the mistakes of the past have less and less influence over the future. We'll have more payroll flexibility this off-season and more (presumably) the next.

I think overall the franchise is finally headed in the right direction and I have a growing sense of optimism about the future. There are a few black clouds on the horizon - the biggest being the ownership situation - but overall I think we're ok. Now if Dan Evans gets fired who knows what happens....

And, at the very least, be thankful that you're not a Reds, Pirates or Tigers fan. That's true misery.

Louis

* * *

Update: Dodger postseason chances, from Baseball Prospectus
Today: 4.8 percent
September 5: 3.5 percent
September 4: 4.3 percent
September 3: 7.9 percent
September 2: 4.8 percent
September 1: 7.9 percent
August 31: 6.9 percent
August 30: 5.5 percent
August 29: 4.8 percent
August 28: 2.6 percent
August 26: 3.6 percent
August 25: 3.1 percent
August 24: 4.4 percent
August 23: 6.5 percent
August 22: 5.8 percent
August 21: 4.2 percent
August 20: 2.3 percent

(Division leaders account for the remaining wild card possibilities.)

I've been so disenchanted with the Dodger columns in the Times this week that when I saw another I disagreed with - the worst of the bunch - I decided I had to just let it go.

Fortunately, Idiots Write About Sports countered Bill Plashcke's "Gagne for MVP" column" today most effectively in a posting entitled, What's French for 'Are You Freakin' Nuts?'

They, like me, were particularly stunned that anyone could consider Gagne, in all his greatness, more of a daily savior than Barry Bonds.

Gagne's own logic that relievers are better contenders for the MVP than the Cy Young is every bit as flawed.

You know I think the world of Gagne, but please, can we maintain just a little perspective?

(Thanks to Baseball Musings for the refer.)

I don't know, guys.

It's September. The Dodgers are three games out. John Wiebe is banging out entries the size of the Mojave. L.A. Observed is promoting this site, admittedly to those "still clinging to interest."

I don't really know what to tell them.

When the games start, I'm into it. But in the quiet morning, I feel there may be no mystery left to the 2003 Dodgers.

They can pitch, assuming they stay healthy.

But they can't hit.

And they can't beat the teams in their own division.

I'm not depressed - I'm just resigned. Won't you be shocked if the Dodgers pull out a playoff bid?

Fourteen road games in the National League West remain for the Dodgers. I'm not big on singling out games as pivotal, but I think it would make all the difference in the world if the Dodgers could show tonight that they can win a road game against a divisional rival.

They are 6-18 on the road within the division. They're the Detroit Tigers. In all other games, the team is 66-48 - a .579 winning percentage.

In one-run road games within the division, the Dodgers are 2-9!

In road games within the division decided by two runs or less, the Dodgers are 2-11!!

In road games within the division decided by three runs or less, the Dodgers are 2-13!!!

In road games within the division decided by four runs or less, the Dodgers are 2-14!!!!

Not to mention the fact that in road games within the division in which the Dodgers have scored three runs or less, the Dodgers are 1-13!!!!

There's your unsolved mystery. Page M. Poirot. Bring this villainy to its knees, and you might just rescue September for the Dodgers from the evil Dr. Ennui and Mr. Angst.

* * *

Update: Dodger postseason chances, from Baseball Prospectus
Today: 3.5 percent
September 4: 4.3 percent
September 3: 7.9 percent
September 2: 4.8 percent
September 1: 7.9 percent
August 31: 6.9 percent
August 30: 5.5 percent
August 29: 4.8 percent
August 28: 2.6 percent
August 26: 3.6 percent
August 25: 3.1 percent
August 24: 4.4 percent
August 23: 6.5 percent
August 22: 5.8 percent
August 21: 4.2 percent
August 20: 2.3 percent

(Division leaders account for the remaining wild card possibilities.)

Update: Dodger postseason chances, from Baseball Prospectus
Today: 4.3 percent
September 3: 7.9 percent
September 2: 4.8 percent
September 1: 7.9 percent
August 31: 6.9 percent
August 30: 5.5 percent
August 29: 4.8 percent
August 28: 2.6 percent
August 26: 3.6 percent
August 25: 3.1 percent
August 24: 4.4 percent
August 23: 6.5 percent
August 22: 5.8 percent
August 21: 4.2 percent
August 20: 2.3 percent

Projected NL Wild-Card Standings as of September 4
Wins ... Team ... Chance of winning wild card
88 ... Philadelphia (55.2 percent)
87 ... Florida (28.5 percent)
86 ... Houston (3.4 percent)
85 ... St. Louis (3.1 percent)
84 ... Los Angeles (4.3 percent)
82 ... Arizona (1.3 percent)
82 ... Montreal (0.6 percent)

(Division leaders account for the remaining wild card possibilities.)

My e-mail to Will Carroll at Baseball Prospectus:

Regarding the revelations about Shawn Green ... would in-season surgery have been a viable option for him? What might the recovery period have been?

Viable? Sure, but he would have missed two months or more. Better to do it the day the season ends or eliminated or whatever. He should recover in time for spring training.

93 games
93 hits
51 singles
31 doubles
1 triple
10 home runs
31 walks
187 total bases on hits plus walks
2.0 bases per game

By comparison, here is what the Dodgers would have hoped to have for the second half of the season - something on pace with Green's stats from 2002:

158 games
166 hits
92 singles
31 doubles
1 triple
42 home runs
93 walks
376 total bases on hits plus walks
2.4 bases per game

Who would have replaced Green during his rehab? A combination of this guy and that guy and even him over there. All of whom would presumably do at least as well as this:

133 games
113 hits
89 singles
19 doubles
5 triples
0 home runs
22 walks
164 total bases on hits plus walks
1.2 bases per game

Those are Cesar Izturis' numbers - essentially, the minimum output for an everyday player.

So here we go. Would it have been worth dropping below the two-base-per-game level in right field for the first half of the season in the hopes of rising above it in the second half?

Would it have been worth giving up dollars and prospects in order to add an extra outfielder that would have matched Green's output?

Realize that it must have taken some time in 2003 for the Dodgers to realize how good their pitching was going to be, and how much the injury was going to sap Green's power. Around the time they were realizing this, Darren Dreifort went down. Soon after, Kevin Brown was working through his own injury. Brian Jordan and Fred McGriff followed.

With those injuries, the Dodgers could have declared 2003 a lost cause.

Or, they could have pulled out the stops to try to salvage the season.

Instead, their approach was, do the best we can in 2003 without going over $117 million or sacrificing the future.

If the team doesn't improve to the point of becoming a perennial World Series contender by 2005, this approach will have been a mistake.

But my hunch is that the team is working right now toward closing the door on a sad chapter in its history, that it is correct in finally instilling some discipline, in biting the bullet. It's a bullet that's hard to swallow amid a steady 15-year diet of them, but it really may help the Dodgers' long-term fitness.

Again, the Times is coming down hard on Dan Evans, but it doesn't seem like you'll ever catch that paper's writers thinking beyond the present. Perhaps Evans deserves some credit for risking his own job security to restore the health of the Dodger franchise.

* * *

Aaron Gleeman put together a combined Los Angeles-Detroit All-Nothing Squad today, writing, "I could say a lot of things to try to describe just how awful that team would be offensively, but I think the best and easiest way to put it is to ask exactly how awful a team would have to be in order for Cesar ".246/.278/.309" Izturis to not be bad enough to crack the starting lineup?"

John Wiebe has really kicked into another gear over the past month at John's Dodger Blog. If you haven't been reading him, you should be. If you have been reading him, I can only hope you're still reading me.

Meanwhile, Robert Tagorda has got his chart game going on. This week, he has drawn attention to the frequency of the Dodger September swoon and is tracking the stats for this month to see if the swoons are returning to Capistrano.

And finally, are you all caught up on the saga of ex-Dodger Tyler Houston? If not, check out the View from the 700 Level.

* * *

Update: Dodger postseason chances, from Baseball Prospectus
Today: 7.9 percent
September 2: 4.8 percent
September 1: 7.9 percent
August 31: 6.9 percent
August 30: 5.5 percent
August 29: 4.8 percent
August 28: 2.6 percent
August 26: 3.6 percent
August 25: 3.1 percent
August 24: 4.4 percent
August 23: 6.5 percent
August 22: 5.8 percent
August 21: 4.2 percent
August 20: 2.3 percent

Projected NL Wild-Card Standings as of September 3
Wins ... Team ... Chance of winning wild card
88 ... Philadelphia (50.4 percent)
86 ... Florida (26.7 percent)
86 ... St. Louis (3.6 percent)
85 ... Houston (3.4 percent)
84 ... Los Angeles (7.9 percent)
83 ... Arizona (3.1 percent)
82 ... Montreal (1.2 percent)

(Division leaders account for the remaining wild card possibilities.)

Baseball Prospectus predicts that the Dodgers will play only .489 ball the rest of the season - worse than any other wild-card contender. Los Angeles has the second-toughest remaining schedule of the contenders, behind only Florida.

Unlike Shawn Green, I will make excuses. I'm no hero. Issues with the new house seem to be taking every waking moment and many sleeping ones. So I don't have the power in my Dodger Thoughts swing I'd like to have right now.

Belatedly, then ...

Jason Reid of the Times today broke what might be the biggest story of the Dodgers' season - that their top offensive player, Green, has been injured since Spring Training.

My immediate response to this was to wonder whether in-season surgery for Green would have been a better solution than having him struggle through the injury. I wrote Will Carroll at Baseball Prospectus - we'll see if his response adds some perspective.

The other fragment of A Shoulder's Story that I find disconcerting is that for most of the season, Dodger officials did imply that they were waiting - expectantly - for Green to resume his usual production. This now seems about as fair as asking a Seinfeld actor to headline a successful sitcom.

Meanwhile, the bigger issue for Reid's teammate, Ross Newhan, was that the Dodgers' knowledge of the injury increases the sin value of the team not pursuing offensive help.

Newhan writes:

...there has been no excuse for management's decision to hide behind the luxury cap at a time when so much of the offense hinged on Green duplicating his production of the last two years, when Brian Jordan went down for the season and Fred McGriff disappeared for a large part of it, and when it became obvious that Kevin Brown was healthy and the high-salaried pitching staff was good enough to carry the Dodgers to the playoffs if the lineup received a shot of substantive help.

Is this tough love for a fan base (and apparently, a media base) starving for postseason action? Definitely. But I appreciate that it shows signs of wanting to stop the Fox/Kevin Malone madness - a madness that all starving fans would decry.

Dan Evans had an agenda - win as many games as possible within a $117 million budget. Newhan believes that this is a phony agenda - that a dollar well-spent is a dollar well-spent, budget be damned.

Honestly, maybe Newhan is right. But I'm not sure. At a minimum, Newhan seems to only be looking at 2003, without any consideration for the future.

The Dodgers may end up missing a window to the playoffs this season, then perhaps watch Kevin Brown and the other pitchers struggle next season. But each year in which the Dodgers show restraint increases their flexibility and potential for the following season. And there really is something to be said for that.

The Dodgers still don't seem to get that on-base percentage matters, or that drafting high schoolers is risky, but other than that, I feel good about the direction of the franchise. Barring a major regime change, I doubt that the team will still be fasting offensively in seasons to come.

* * *

Update: Dodger postseason chances, from Baseball Prospectus
Today: 4.8 percent
September 1: 7.9 percent
August 31: 6.9 percent
August 30: 5.5 percent
August 29: 4.8 percent
August 28: 2.6 percent
August 26: 3.6 percent
August 25: 3.1 percent
August 24: 4.4 percent
August 23: 6.5 percent
August 22: 5.8 percent
August 21: 4.2 percent
August 20: 2.3 percent

Projected NL Wild-Card Standings as of September 2
Wins ... Team ... Chance of winning wild card
88 ... Philadelphia (47.3 percent)
87 ... Florida (31.6 percent)
86 ... Houston (3.5 percent)
85 ... St. Louis (3.5 percent)
84 ... Los Angeles (4.7 percent)
84 ... Arizona (4.3 percent)
83 ... Montreal (1.4 percent)

(Division leaders account for the remaining wild card possibilities.)

I'm increasingly aware that the Dodgers' difficult September schedule - facing Houston plus NL West teams that they have struggled with all season - would render a wild-card run miraculous.

Update: Dodger postseason chances, from Baseball Prospectus
Today: 7.9 percent
August 31: 6.9 percent
August 30: 5.5 percent
August 29: 4.8 percent
August 28: 2.6 percent
August 26: 3.6 percent
August 25: 3.1 percent
August 24: 4.4 percent
August 23: 6.5 percent
August 22: 5.8 percent
August 21: 4.2 percent
August 20: 2.3 percent

Projected NL Wild-Card Standings as of September 1
Wins ... Team ... Chance of winning wild card
88 ... Philadelphia (48.6 percent)
86 ... Florida (25.7 percent)
85 ... Chicago (3.1 percent)
85 ... Houston (2.8 percent)
84 ... Los Angeles (7.9 percent)
84 ... Arizona (6.6 percent)
83 ... Montreal (2.3 percent)

(Division leaders account for the remaining wild card possibilities.)