Gah!! LAT'd again.

I was responding to the post about "going 5 years without ESPN"

I haven't seen Sportscenter in full in a very very long time, not sure exactly how long.

Generally, the only thing I watch on ESPN is actual sporting events, but there happen to be a lot of them.

I don't really need SC. Reports, I can go to rotoworld, yahoo sports, etc. Highlights, there's MLB.com, NBA.com, team websites, youtube, etc. Analysis, that's what we do here at Dodger Thoughts.

---

Will Kershaw get a win this year? The odds would have to favor him today, but Danks is pitching for the Sox. Danks is having a good year so far.

Kershaw V, plus Kershaw II, = Kershaw VII: Adrian's Revenge!

I don't think anybody named Adrian is playing in this game.

I think Joe is doing the old Billy Martin routine where he's just picking names out of a hat to make the line up. And then deciding where everyone can play.

LAT:

Navarro will likely be an AL All-Star this year.

He's 2nd in the AL in OPS at catcher (.835)----> Mauer is at .837

His overall line: .326/.379/.456

Too bad Ned sold him A.) for Hendrickson, and B) when his value was lowest.

BHSportsguy said its a reach to criticize Ned for trading Navarro..If we cant criticize trading a good young catcher for 1.5 season of Mark Hendrickson---> then what should Ned be criticized for? Thats about as bad as it gets.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Also, good lineup today.
I like LaRoche at 2nd, and Russ at 3b.

The eyesore remains Pierre at the top, but Torre doesnt get paid 4 mils to just sit there. He's an mlb manager. Its his job to make stupid decisions and give us fans something to talk about each game.

Now, I'm 26 so Fernando was slightly before my time. What is a "screwball"? I keep hearing about it, but apparently nobody pitches it today.

It is great to see that they are finally giving La Roche a chance at 2b to sub for Kent. Hope this is a sign of things to come.

Ah, its the ol' stack the lineup with righties VS a leftie who is more effective VS righties move.

6 It's a breaking ball that breaks in the opposite direction of natural. Since Fernando was a lefty, his broke to the left, while a typical slider would break to the right.

6 - a screwball is a backwards slider, meaning it breaks the opposite way as a slider. Nomo use to throw one, I think

By the way, you guys nailed it with LaRoche sitting after hitting a HR the game before!

Nomo didn't throw a screwball that I recall.

Please to enjoy my irrational, poorly-reasoned attack on Juan Pierre in this week's LA City Beat:

http://www.lacitybeat.com/cms/story/detail/but_what_of_juan_pierre/7161/

12 - I could have sworn that someone on the Dodgers staff in the last 10 years threw a screwball, thought it was Nomo, may be completely off though.

LaRoche at 2nd base!

Whoo!

Does anyone know, statistically, what are the peak ages for a baseball player, and at what age does their perfomance start to decline?

If anyone has a link to a good article about age/performance, that would be great too.

Thanks

14 I think I remember Ross Porter repeatedly saying that Ismael Valdez threw a screwball, but I don't actually remember seeing him do it.

That is a most interesting infield combination. A Martin to LaRoche to Loney DP would be fun to see.

18 - I'd prefer to see a DeWitt to LaRoche to Loney double play, but I'll take what I can get.

14 - I don't know - it's pretty rare, because it can really wear on your arm.

19 - Before the game is through there may be a chance to see that.

The wikipedia page on the screwball is rather interesting, particularly the part about Dr. Mike Marshall's opinion on teaching it. I seriously had no idea that Mike Marshall (pitcher) had a PhD. Also interesting is the blurb on Carl Hubbell

12 The only person I can recall who threw one recently is Jim Mecir.

6 Screwballs are still thrown today but are now called either 2-seam fastballs or circle change-ups.

I love this line-up (well at least 2-6) I think we're going to give Kershaw some good run support today.

Was it The Hardball Times that had an article about the death of the screwball in the last week or two? I believe that they claimed that it was the cut fastball, which provided movement in the same direction without so much wear on the arm, that helped to kill it.

Off to the game. Today win number one will be win number two of the new win streak.

Finally, Andy gets a look at 2B. Andy hits the ball hard today as the friendly competition between Andy and Blake heats up :)

Let's go Andy! Make Mr. Torre look like a genius!

So everybody's OK with Ardoin playing instead of DeWitt?

is there a trend starting where Ardoin is going to catch Kershaw's games? Or just a recent coincidence?
vr, Xei

25. Just checked the article, it was the split-finger fastball that killed the screwball and it was from June 16.

Berroa playing everyday makes me sick.

27 It's a day game after a night game. Russell shouldn't catch, but I'd rather have his bat (and Andy's) than DeWitt's.

6 I'm old enough to remember Jim Brewer throwing screwballs, let alone Fernando. He was still in the pen when 22 Iron Mike Marshall got here.

30 His defense has been surprisingly adequate. His bat, about what we thought.

16
The commonly known old school reference point is a peak at age 28, obviously, that is a gross generality. There are early bloomers and late bloomers. It's more about the physical development of a person's body.
Look at Stluts as an example ... wonder what Kershaw will look like at age 28?

16. Here is one such study. vr, Xei

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=835

http://tinyurl.com/3qx8z5

If you go to around page 55 of the Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers, there's a chapter that wraps up the screwball pretty nicely.

Interesting stuff in the Tampa Bay/Florida game going on. Top 6th as of now.

Scott Shields probably has the best screwball/2-seamer in the game right now. When Fernando threw his did it break at a 45-degree angle down and away from righties or was it straight across the plane like a reverse slider?

Peak age, acc. to Bill James, is about 27 for hitters (on average, and b/w 26 and 28 for nearly all hitters). And I seem to remember reading something recently that said that that hasn't changed in 50-60 yrs or more. Pitchers might peak a little later, given the different injury profiles and changes in same over time.

Sorry, I don't have a cite handy, but that's the punchline.

I don't think any Dodger has thrown a screwball since Fernando, at least not as a regular part of the repertoire. And while I'll defer to someone who has actually, you know, pitched, it doesn't sound right to me that the screwball has just been renamed the circle-change or 2-seam FB. The screwball requires a horrific outward torque on the elbow, as I recall.

30 Nobody's tickled with it, but who do you suggest they play everyday at short instead right now?

Ramon Martinez is at Vegas - we could call him up!

I like this crazy line-up. Hope the defense doesn't let the Minotaur down.

40 I would much rather have Martinez than Berroa.

37. Tampa Bay is doing great so far this year. If the Dodgers can't win it all this year, I sure $$$ hope $$$ the Rays do! Especially at 150:1 odds. :)
vr, Xei

42

Those are Mellencamp-esque odds right there!

Nobody's tickled with it, but who do you suggest they play everyday at short instead right now?

Not many will agree, but Ivan DeJesus Jr. This is ONLY if Furcal misses the rest of the year.

43. Those odds are printed on a ticket(s) that is currently sitting in my wallet. :) Which may shortly get moved to a safety deposit box.
vr, Xei

39 I pitched until about 2001 (through college) and actually had a brief stint with the Solano County Steelheads (in a now nonexistant independant baseball league). While working with Mike Scott (ex-Major Leaguer and pitching coach), he said "Wow you throw 2 different screwballs?" I replied "No, thats my 2-seamer and my circle change-up." He then replied "You can call it whatever you want but those pitches are screwballs." If you watch guys like Scott Shields, they pronate their arm outwards after release to get that type of "running" action on their pitches, essentially a screwball from my understanding of the pitch.

With the D-Bax headed for a below .500 record---> I'm wondering if the NL West has ever had every single team below .500 this late into the season?

34. It's true that there are early flameouts and late bloomers, but in the articles that I'm alluding to (but not citing - where is Bob?) the thousands and thousands of major league players allow for a nice normal distribution of peak performance, with the mean/median/mode at 27 (maybe 28) and a very steep bump in the late 20s in general (steep rise to the peak, and steep decline afterwards). So sure, there are people in the tails, but most players are covered by the generalization (well if it's normal, then 2/3rds of players are within one standard deviation of the mean).

Part of the reason that it seems like the peak is later is that and many HOFers are in the right tail (it's that sustained greatness that makes them HOFers) and we don't remember very many of the early flameouts, unless they were hugely hyped or ROYs or something like that. Moreover, all those guys like Stults whose peak is a first shot at the majors at age 27-28, and then disappear again are easy to forget, but just because their peaks are lower (AAAA), doesn't mean they happen at a different age than for most everyone else.

44--> I agree with you. DeJesus has a good glove, and the best patience of any player the Dodgers have had since Russ Martin was at AA.

He's got no power, and maybe MLB pitcher would pound the K zone against him knowing he cant hurt them going deep---> but I have to think playing him now would be more beneficial to the Dodgers both now and for the future than Angel Berroa.

8 Danks is slightly backwards in his career splits.
against RH batters: .270 .327 .450 .778
against LH batters: .284 .356 .455 .811

I always wonder how much skew ends up in a LHP starter vs. LHB split - given how much managers love to avoid starting their LHBs against LHPs, does it follow that LH starters face an inordinate percentage of LH batters that are simply really good hitters since those batters are the ones that stay in?

47 - September 27, 2005

http://www.baseball-reference.com/games/standings.cgi?date=2005-09-27

A screw ball has more to do with the twisting motion your hand/elbow go through while the pitch is being thrown. The movement is generated from the arm twist whereas a 2 seam fastball and a circle change generate the movement from grip and release, not so much an arm twist like the motion similar to a wrist when throwing a curve ball.

LaRoche at Second! I guess its not quite dewitt, laroche, berroa, loney with russ behind the plate....but this has to be the best infield we've put on the field in a while

Age/Performance

http://dberri.wordpress.com/2007/04/21/it-aint-necessarily-so/

"[Bowling Green State University statistician Jim Albert] examined the productivity of hitters born over six decades, and found that Bill James's 1930s sample of players, for whatever reason, peaked at a younger average age than any before or since.

Players born in the:

1910s - 28.0 peak
1920s - 28.6
1930s - 27.1
1940s - 28.9
1950s - 28.7
1960s - 29.8

It's fair to say then, that most players through history have peaked closer to age 29 than 27."

I wonder why baseball players peak later than other athletes? Maybe it takes more years for the eyes to adjust to a speeding baseball.

54 Way less athletic ability is required to be a baseball player than any other major sport.

what happened to the new gameday? It serious looks like the old NES baseball video game.

51 woohoo, my birthday

56 - although the new command functions on the hitting screen are pretty cool.

55 Way less athletic ability is required to be a baseball player than any other major sport.

Not sure if you're just being silly, but maybe baseball takes both athletic ability AND hand-eye experience, to finally get a feel for it, which happens at a later age.

Game in Florida between TB/Fla no longer interesting.

Han Ram hits one out to break it up.

I like DeJesus' prospects, too, and maybe if Furcal is going to be out for the whole season (God forbid) then that would make more sense but I worry it'll just be throwing him to the wolves too early which could affect his confidence. As with Hu, who seriously regressed at the plate. I have faith that both of them will be pretty good, but not convinced DeJesus is ready yet. I guess we could try him but again it depends on Furcal's status. If he's back in July then I wouldn't bother. I don't see how Ramon Martinez would be any better at the plate than Berroa (and yes, he couldn't be much worse, either) and Maza. The thought of Maza + Martinez on the team doesn't really excite me any more than the current situation.

I'm late, but: Yay Stults, Yay!

YESSSSSSSSSSS!!!

59 Those two statements aren't mutually exclusive.

I wouldn't give up on Hu yet.

63 Those two statements aren't mutually exclusive.

Well they aren't much of anything, since his comment about athletic ability is nonsensical. If I were him I would have simply said that baseball is less stressful on the body.

46. Well, I said I'd defer to an actual pitcher, and so I shall. I sit corrected. Thanks.

64 As I said, "I have faith that both of them will be pretty good" :-) and I do. Hu will be back. Probably in September. They will probably have to decide on DeJesus vs. Hu at some point, though.

Why is Hu on the 7 day DL?

No, the question is What is Hu doing on the DL? I don't know!

65 His comment about athletic ability is perfectly sensible. Wear and tear is part of it - catastrophic injury cuts short careers in contact sports more readily than in baseball - thus making for earlier retirements. But while many MLB players (most, nowadays) are terrific athletes, many are not, especially as they age and balloon up. Think of all the guys who end up at 1b or DH because they can't field a position any more. In basketball or football, they would move to the bench (less playing time, lower performance) or to retirement if they couldn't keep up any more.

I think regfairfield's point about the effects of age athleticism is right on target. And, yet again, I wish you'd aim for a little more civility in your comments.

Jay Bruce is the only 21 year old position player with more than 25+ PA in the major leagues. Justin Upton is the only 20 year old position player with more than 25+ PA this year. There are only 10 22 year old positions players that are with 25+
plate appearances. That's a grand total of 12 players in the major leagues who are 22 and younger.

Ivan De Jesus, Jr. just turned 21 in May and it would be a really bad idea for him to be promoted this year and maybe even next year.

66 I hope my comment didn't come off as entitled (that wasn't my intention), I actually was just always know as a pitcher with a ton of movement (short on velocity unfortunately 84-87). I could be wrong but regardless of how a pitch is thrown, if it has the same action and velocity, it is essentially the same pitch.

65 It's not nonsensical; perhaps you're having different definitions of the word "athlete" and are having a semantics conflict.

The amount of energy someone needs to exert to play baseball isn't as high as something like basketball or soccer. Players don't have to be fast or agile or strong to be good at baseball. Players have to have certain attributes, like reaction time, to be good, but is reaction time an "athletic" trait?

57

pretty good typing skills for a 2 1/2 yr.old.

72 I didn't read any entitlement. I thought it was an interesting anecdote, and I had no idea that you're a pitcher.

This is definitely the most interesting lineup of the year. As long as it has Laroche, I like it.

Forty years ago, Bobby Bonds hit a grand slam against the Dodgers in his first major league game

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/thedailymirror/2008/06/bonds-slams-the.html

75 Yeah I still play recreationally but am nowhere near as good as I was in my young 20's, I just love the game. A few pretty serious injuries derailed my dream of pitching in the bigs but that story is a dime a dozen. Do you play?

56 - yeah, wow, man is that ugly.

Jon, please tell me this is a joke.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lzWJULZ5sjg

A new BH90210? Gack.

55 59 63 [etc..]
Baseball is far more of a craft than a talent. Athletic ability has much to do with it for sure but, a certain amount of mental maturity and repetition is required to really succeed at the top (major league) level. Hence, the "schooling" (can you tell I'm from the south?) that goes on thru an average of 5 levels of minor leagues. This is likely the reason for the later peak in age with regards to production.

79 - but you can zoom in and out and rotate the view, so, I'll take the trade.

80 I believe this has been in the works for a while.

Sorry.

{cry} And Jessica Walter, Mom Bluth, is in it! And Tori Spelling returns. {yack}

Anyway...

Go Clayton!

The topic is peak performance age. And the measure of baseball players vis a vis age, is batting performance, not fielding, which cannot be adequately measured.

Either way, bringing athletic ability into it still has no place in a discussion of peak-performance-age among various sports.

Yes, baseball does not require the body stress of other sports (as I mentioned), but that does NOT explain why the peak batting age is 29 instead of 22. It may explain why the peak age of a running back is not 29. But we already knew that.

Russell! He's so athletic and dreamy!

80 - Naw, that's old news.

But, um, it's not like they're remaking Casablanca.

So, the game started ...

Atta boy Clayton!

... and LaRoche is in the thick of things!

87 Yah, it's not a matter of sacrilege. It's more a matter of "For the love of god why subject us to this again!" but it's not like I watched the first one more than a couple of times. Sort of like the Prom Night remake this year. The original wasn't very good, but why remake it, and the remake was terrible.

In better news, Mad Men comes out on DVD next week.

Atta boy Toby!

Tee hee.

It as if Juan Pierre does anything positive, the comments drop off.

new game day is freaking me out

No rabbits on the base paths yet?

Oo, that was pretty close to a swing for the Bison but we'll take it.

94 i was just about say that.

The rabbit is at 2nd. the Bison is at first. The rooster crows at midnight.

Well, that was not a good swing by Russell there (I write this not seeing the swing).

I hate it when guys do what Martin just did. Stupid. Stupid. Stupid.

The Rabbit is at 3rd, rather.