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Also ...
A Season in Savannah (Stanford Magazine)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2005) (Hardball Times)
Rick Monday (Baseball Analysts)
Baseball's Odd Couple (Baseball Prospectus)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2006) (Hardball Times)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2007) (Hardball Times)
Dodger home record: 50-35 (.588)
When Jon attended: 9-5 (.643)
When Jon didn't: 41-30 (.577)
Dodgers at home: 795-635 (.556)
Jon attended: 302-238 (.559)*
Jon didn't: 498-404 (.552)
* includes road games attended
Current Roster with Estimated 2009 Salaries
(updated November 14)
Most figures are estimates (some are wild estimates) but will be updated as information comes in. Corrections welcome.
More contract details here.
Starting Pitchers (5)
$10,000,000 Hiroki Kuroda
*$475,000 Chad Billingsley
*$415,000 Clayton Kershaw
*$405,000 Eric Stults
*$400,000 James McDonald
*Total: $11,695,000
Bullpen (7)
*$2,500,000 Takashi Saito
*$1,300,000 Scott Proctor
*$1,500,000 Jonathan Broxton
*$425,000 Hong-Chih Kuo
*$420,000 Cory Wade
*$410,000 Ramon Troncoso
*$400,000 Scott Elbert
Total: $6,955,000
Also on 40-man roster
Mario Alvarez
Yhency Brazoban
Greg Miller
Justin Orenduff
Starting Lineup (8)
$17,100,000 Andruw Jones
*$3,000,000 Russell Martin
*$2,500,000 Andre Ethier
*$600,000 Matt Kemp
*$600,000 James Loney
*$500,000 Angel Berroa
*$410,000 Blake DeWitt
*$400,000 Tony Abreu
Total: $25,110,000
Bench (5)
$10,000,000 Juan Pierre
*$600,000 Jason Repko
*$410,000 Delwyn Young
*$400,000 Danny Ardoin
*$400,000 Chin-Lung Hu
Total: $11,810,000
Note: Team can buy out Ozuna's 2009 option for $200,000
Also on 40-man roster
A.J. Ellis
Lucas May
Xavier Paul
Disabled List
$12,000,000 Jason Schmidt
Also Paying ...
$2,000,000 Brad Penny (buyout of $9,000,000 option)
$50,000 Gary Bennett (buyout of $900,000 option)
Note: Kansas City is responsible for $500,000 buyout of Angel Berroa's $5,500,000 option for 2009.
Working total: *$68,020,000
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Baseball Toaster runs on some experimental software called Fairpole. It's still under development.
For more information, please visit the Fairpole blog, or read the FAQ.
Still not ready to make a final analysis on the trade. Here's another placeholder post.
At the end of the 2002 season, Casey Blake was 28 years old and had 26 career major-league hits (along with 11 walks).
Since that time, he has a .787 OPS. He turns 35 next month.
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So, what do you think is the Dodgers' thinking on Andy LaRoche? Do they think that injuries have sapped his ability? Do they think that his skills just don't translate to the majors? Or do they still have faith in him - just not this year?
I know LaRoche hasn't been impressing them, but I haven't gotten a solid sense of what conclusions they've drawn.
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Random tidbits:
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David Wharton of the Times has a report on Friday's Dodger Stadium shuttle debut.
I thought LaRoche should have been the starter last year. That is two years that we have wasted "evaluating" him. To me, that means that we will never give him a real shot to win the job.
234 Blocking LaRoche is the one element that doesn't bug me. He's going to get his chances. Blake is a competent substitute for Kent on his days off, in fact he's Kent slump insurance. Blake is also going to take days off and LaRoche will get worked in. If the Dodgers fall out of contention, which remains a strong possibility, LaRoche will get even more opportunities. I think this year is kind of a write-off for LaRoche, hopefully one from which he'll learn a few things. I see him emerging out of ST 09 as the clear winner at 3B. His performance so far this year hasn't earned him the job, admittedly mostly because life is unfair. But this deal exerts a positive gravitational influence on the long-term 3B situation, and LaRoche will be the primary beneficiary.
Unless the GM trades him tonight.
They needed to upgrade offense but at what position? Had to be left side of the infield. Torre the other did took somewhat of a skeptical view of what he expects out of Garciaparra saying "a routine grounder at 3rd and his calf exploded".
I bet DeWitt goes down until rosters expand. LaRoche sees some time at 3rd but also at SS giving Nomar some time off. LaRoche is also good off the bench with his ability to take lots of pitches. Then next year when Blake is gone it's back to LaRoche/DeWitt to battle for the starting job.
I'm guessing it will look...Glorious.
If you don't like this deal what should Ned have done? We don't want to see less of Loney, Martin, Ethier, and Kemp. He can't move Jones or Pierre. If you want to upgrade the offense it had to be at 2B, SS, or 3B. Moving Kent would be difficult I think. So that leaves SS/3B. I'm all for giving LaRoche a shot but it should have been earlier in the season. With just two months left and desperate for offense I think he had to roll the dice. It's a decent gamble without giving up too much.
I think something must be wrong with Meloan, so I don't hate this trade. It could have been much worse. Matt Kemp for a CC rental would have given me a heart attack.
Whether LaRoche or DeWitt gets sent down this afternoon will go a long way toward telling us what the Dodgers think of LaRoche. I think that (a) not everyone in the Dodger brass agrees on him, and (b) Torre, in particular, doesn't trust him. Perhaps they'll trade him during the offseason. Perhaps they'll sign some PVL to a one-year deal (Nomar?) and let him compete with LaRoche for next year's third-base job. Perhaps they'll send Andy to the island of Crete as a human sacrifice. At this point nothing would surprise me except LaRoche being flat-out handed a job.
When it's gotten to the point where Rob Neyer is making "Free Andy LaRoche!" posts on random internet message boards, well, that's when your treatment of the player has passed the point of ridiculousness.
According to one poster at BTF, Blake is likely to be a Type A free agent, so I guess that's one good thing about it, as long as the Dodgers do the smart thing and let him walk. (Then again, is there any team in baseball who would actually give up two first-round draft picks so they could sign Casey Friggin' Blake?)
Blake replaces Blake (and Andy).
> "They could make a deal with the Dodgers, who are overloaded with outfielders but have a manager in Joe Torre who is accustomed to dealing with star players with diva issues. The offer from L.A. would start with third baseman Andy LaRoche, conceivably."
Adrian Beltre of Seattle wasn't an option because the Dodgers are among the 10 teams listed in his limited no-trade clause, according a baseball source who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
Memo to Ned: There are a lot of GMs who are much, much smarter than you are. Mark Shapiro is one of them. Try not to deal with those guys if you can help it. Thank you.
(I know, I know, if I'm so smart, why aren't I as rich as Boras.)
But jeez, there is only one team out there whose fans have good memories of Beltre as a real masher, and that's the folks here in LA who shouted MVP MVP whenever he came to bat in the late summer of '04. Only one place where a trade for Beltre would garner good press. Putting LA on the no-trade list is cutting off nose to spite face.
Tonight's lineup is tough to call. Outside shot that Pierre sits for Ethier or Blake plays LF with Andy at 3B.
I don't see why Theo Epstein would be willing to eat Pierre's or Jones's contracts. Maybe Pierre's. Boston can afford a $9M/yr 4th outfielder.
But this is Buster Olney we're talking about. Buster Olney might know less about baseball than Ned Colletti.
Jones and LaRoche for Manny? Done.
An OF of Manny-Kemp-Ethier/Pierre sounds like fun.
18 I think the only evidence Ned has that LaRoche is a viable major league player is that other teams keep asking for him.
I like the juxtaposition of these two comments. If Ned were aware that most GMs were smarter than he is, he might take their demands as measures of value. So he needs to heed 14 before he can follow the logic of 18 . The only thing worse than a dumb boss is a dumb boss who thinks he's smarter than everyone else. Reminds me of Larry Hagman's character in "The Eagle has Landed."
I'm looking forward to the Beard coming.
As to Jon's question, I actually don't think the Dodgers have given up on LaRoche. (Which doesn't mean I'd be shocked if he was traded, either.) But I think they still favor his longterm outlook over DeWitt's. Just mho. The Manny trade idea is certainly intriguing but I don't think that's anything more than a figment of Olney's vivid imagination.
This is a guy who has more attitude in his little finger than Matt Kemp has in his whole body, is declining as a hitter and could potentially collapse, listens to MP3s in the outfield, gives back much of his hitting value with his historically awful defense, and would be lucky to get through two weeks without being punched in the face by Jeff Kent.
I don't see Boston really rushing to trade Manny. He means more to them than he would to any other team, and he's still a pretty good hitter.
The Sawx would never take Andruw Jones, but I could see them having interest in Juan Pierre. Ellsbury has been slumping, bad, so they might want some speed to spell him at the top of the line-up if he continues to slump into August and September. Pierre on the Red Sox actually kind of works because they already have players who can hit homeruns.
Pierre and LaRoche for Manny, and drinks are on me. Gosh, that would be a great day. They'd probably eat most of what he's owed this year, too, given his phantom injury and the fact that Manny's attitude has put him on clearance.
Jeff Kent gone after this year, he's going into movies.
Jeff will be staring in a new franchise vehicle updated for him by the Cohen Brothers; Grumpy Old Men, Barry Bonds is going to play the other role.
Andruw is being traded to the Goodyear Tire and Rubber Company, never can tell when you can use another blimp.
Like I said: Fun.
18 I think the only evidence Ned has that LaRoche is a viable major league player is that other teams keep asking for him.
That's not really true. They keep asking for LaRoche as part of a cast of thousands, including Kemp. Smart GM's mumble LaRoche's name as if they're offering him a ride to the mall; as if he's doing Ned a favor by lightening his load.
14 Melvin Mora 73.714 A
15 Casey Blake 72.571 B
"If we get one of the best young hitters in baseball such as Matt Holiday, then the Red Sox are going to put Manny on waivers, but only if!!!!!!"
Washburn has just been traded to the Yanks.
Would he have the skill set to play second?
Let's be realistic, if the Dodgers got Manny, the outfield would be Pierre, Jones, Rameriz, left to right (or gawd forbid, right to left).
See thats why he is considered a gamer. He doesn't let repeated failure alter him. Kind of like Ned with transactions.
You do know that Juan is LH and can never turn a double play because of that? There is a reason no one plays LH at 2nd base.
34
That is only relevant if two things happen.
1. We need to offer him arbitration and have him turn us down.
2. Some team feels the need to sign Blake and cost themselves a number one pick.
Does anyone see that scenario playing out?
I like Casey Blake but he's probably not a good match for this team other then as insurance and again, this kind of insurance shouldn't be so expensive.
I can live with this deal but I said that about Navarro and Jackson. At some point instead of living with a deal, I'd like to be impressed with a deal. Hopefully this will be the last trade Ned makes as a Dodger GM. This might be the first time McCourt is showing that money means something by giving them Santana for them paying Blake's salary for this year.
If anything I see it as the club showing confidence in LaRoche, fact is they're in the middle of a playoff race and are getting no production out of 3B. They saw an oppurtinity to upgrade at 3B (in their minds) so they did becuase they need help offensively. It's not like Blake is gonna be a fixture on this team, I'm sure he won't be re-signed for next season. I see it as Andy we still have faith in you but we need help so next year you're our guy.
With that being said, Andy hasnt had a chance to prove himself and I'm sure he could do the same exact thing Casey does this year.
I don't see the big deal trading Santana, I see it as a sell high move, this is a guy that had a .688 OPS at 21 yrs old in class A. And as discussed before many people saw Santana's value mostly as a trading chip.
Ned knows he has to make it to the playoffs to keep his job.
I actually think we could make a run in the playoffs if we could get there. I just don't see us getting there.
D'Backs are much better than they've been playing.
For being in decline, Manny has sure hit a lot better this year than last year. And regardless of whether he is decline or not, he still is a far, far better bat than anyone we have on this club.
If it's a matter of watching him play in LF over the next 2 years or Juan Pierre, I know who I am choosing.
All the elements are there for Dodger pockets to be picked further by sharper GM's and virtually any other major league GM with a pulse meets the definition of "sharper".. Colletti loves "unsung" veterans, and he's shown an unswerving tendency to buy them at the very heighth of their value. Blake is putting up an 830 OPS this yr. against a career 789. He's also had this nasty tendency,like other guys in their decline phase to fade in the second half. Over the last 2 yrs his OPS has plunged 140 pts in the 2nd half.. But his superficial #'s look good enough for Colletti. Colletti also has no problem dealing younger players not high on the local media's radar screen (Denker, Jackson, Navarro, Guzman, Meloan, etc). Finally, he has a veteran Mgr. who likes vets, is getting impatient with LaRoche, and has the owner's ear.
All the elements for a perfect storm exist - beleagured GM who doesn't know how to evaluate talent properly, impatient owner, feckless local media when it comes to critiquing deals, and Mgr who loves his vets. You think more young talent is soon to be swept away for yet more overrated mediocre vets ? You bet your bippee..
Red Sox management has essentially accused Manny (off the record) of throwing games. That's about as serious as it gets. I don't want him around. And the chances of Ned acquiring him are about the same as those of acquiring Roger Maris.
I'd pass on some more talking points, but none of them would let you show off as a gracious guest. ;)
That was also the year they converted him into a Catcher.. Plus, young players do not have a perfectly straight line upward every year. Loney had a 638 OPS as a 20 yr old, and even struggled in AAA last yr (727). Yes, Santana is a tad old for high A, and yes, his 995 OPS this year is Cal League-fueled. But he also has a career .383 OBP and 841 OPS in the minors. His plate discipline looks quite similar to Martin's. This is a real good sign. He's still raw behind the plate now, but this has some real potential to come back to haunt. As might the departure of Meloan. These guys will be doing things in the majors long after Blake is gone from the Dodgers (which hopefully is next year)..
The big joke trade of the weekend is the Pirates / Yanks deal. The Pirates got nothing.
Blake has proven that he is better than a marginal player.
LaRoche has not.
Unless you're a GM with a 3-month time horizon.
I'm not sure why people keep insisting that we need to trade every good young catcher we get. There is a place for them. It's called backup catcher, and it's a reasonably important role, and one for which the Dodgers have consistently failed to find a major league-caliber player.
I think his age (35), will keep that from happening.
Your statement can be made of any young player who hasn't been given a full chance. If you're going to say it about LaRoche, you need to say it about Kershaw too, because it applies to him just as well. At various times it could also have been said of Broxton, Kemp, Loney. The possibilities are endless. It's a completely meaningless thing to say.
Here's mine, are they happy with the state of the organization after three years in DC, 2 years owning the team? They've bought in a good number of new prospects, but not many top drawer guys. There's no David Price or really any #1 starter in the entire system. My feeling is they've tried to rebuild and compete at the same time and haven't maximized their rebuilding by trading pieces, sucking for a while and getting top 5 draft picks, etc. From here, it seems like a lot of lost time.
The other fun story -- they are withholdi