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NL West Preview
Evaluating Defense
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Also ...
A Season in Savannah (Stanford Magazine)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2005) (Hardball Times)
Rick Monday (Baseball Analysts)
Baseball's Odd Couple (Baseball Prospectus)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2006) (Hardball Times)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2007) (Hardball Times)
Dodger home record: 50-35 (.588)
When Jon attended: 9-5 (.643)
When Jon didn't: 41-30 (.577)
Dodgers at home: 795-635 (.556)
Jon attended: 302-238 (.559)*
Jon didn't: 498-404 (.552)
* includes road games attended
Current Roster with Estimated 2009 Salaries
(updated November 14)
Most figures are estimates (some are wild estimates) but will be updated as information comes in. Corrections welcome.
More contract details here.
Starting Pitchers (5)
$10,000,000 Hiroki Kuroda
*$475,000 Chad Billingsley
*$415,000 Clayton Kershaw
*$405,000 Eric Stults
*$400,000 James McDonald
*Total: $11,695,000
Bullpen (7)
*$2,500,000 Takashi Saito
*$1,300,000 Scott Proctor
*$1,500,000 Jonathan Broxton
*$425,000 Hong-Chih Kuo
*$420,000 Cory Wade
*$410,000 Ramon Troncoso
*$400,000 Scott Elbert
Total: $6,955,000
Also on 40-man roster
Mario Alvarez
Yhency Brazoban
Greg Miller
Justin Orenduff
Starting Lineup (8)
$17,100,000 Andruw Jones
*$3,000,000 Russell Martin
*$2,500,000 Andre Ethier
*$600,000 Matt Kemp
*$600,000 James Loney
*$500,000 Angel Berroa
*$410,000 Blake DeWitt
*$400,000 Tony Abreu
Total: $25,110,000
Bench (5)
$10,000,000 Juan Pierre
*$600,000 Jason Repko
*$410,000 Delwyn Young
*$400,000 Danny Ardoin
*$400,000 Chin-Lung Hu
Total: $11,810,000
Note: Team can buy out Ozuna's 2009 option for $200,000
Also on 40-man roster
A.J. Ellis
Lucas May
Xavier Paul
Disabled List
$12,000,000 Jason Schmidt
Also Paying ...
$2,000,000 Brad Penny (buyout of $9,000,000 option)
$50,000 Gary Bennett (buyout of $900,000 option)
Note: Kansas City is responsible for $500,000 buyout of Angel Berroa's $5,500,000 option for 2009.
Working total: *$68,020,000
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I want to make the playoffs. I believe in October Madness. I don't care if the Dodgers are the lowest-seeded team in the tourney. I want in.
Play for the future or play for the present? Sell or buy? These are false choices. An utterly phony construct. A team like the Dodgers, a team with four-star talent and a nine-figure payroll, doesn't need to choose. The Dodgers can make a longshot bid for the World Series without sacrificing their future. It's not nearly the riddle that some would make it out to be.
I had no emotional reaction to the trade of Jonathan Meloan and Carlos Santana for Casey Blake. I almost had no reaction at all. It was no watershed, no last straw. It's purely a byproduct of an organization whose values are incoherent.
The media, locally and nationally, is choosing the theme of the Dodgers' 2008 season. After Youth vs. Age made a bid for a repeat title, the leader heading into the stretch run is Front Office Dysfunction. Top Dodger execs are in disagreement; the team isn't easy to complete a trade with. This isn't news. It's not important. It's not even interesting. The press is breathless about the Dodgers' foreign relations, yet with few exceptions doesn't question the nonsense, the violence, being unleashed domestically.
Under the leadership of Ned Colletti and Joe Torre, the Dodgers are both arrogant and self-loathing. They over-compensate to a fault. They belong on a therapist's couch not because of their part in any organizational disagreement (disagreement and debate can be productive), not because opposing teams don't know where the buck stops, but because of a maniacal insecurity.
Yes, the Dodger lineup is infused with youth. Young players are everywhere - in the lineup, in the rotation, in the bullpen. It's not that Colletti and Torre don't want the youth to do well. It's that at the sign of trouble, they don't believe. They're on a roller coaster that they want no part of. In their perfect world, there is no youth.
They're addicts, and they can't stay on the wagon. Veteran talent is the drug and it feels so good, even if they wake up emptier than before. The Dodger leadership doesn't have the backbone to stand on its own two feet.
I'm an addict too. I'm not addicted to experience; I'm not addicted to youth either. I'm addicted to having the best possible player in the game, regardless of age. As far as I'm concerned, this is like being addicted to a glass of orange juice each day.
When life is good, Torre and Colletti love the kids. When there is doubt, the veterans benefit - not because they are better, but because they are veterans. Sometimes this is fine. In a pinch, Nomar Garciaparra has helped the Dodgers at shortstop. Casey Blake might hit 10 home runs for the Dodgers at third base in the next two months. Juan Pierre, of all people, might save the Dodgers from the nightmare of Andruw Jones.
But these ifs could apply just as easily to the kids as to the grownups. Age for the sake of age as an operating philosophy? Experience without regard to talent? It's an astonishing blindness. Experience should be a means, but when the chips are down, Colletti and Torre see it as an end. A million World Series veterans within arms reach for some quiet instruction or a pep talk aren't enough for them. They value experience over talent. A first-pitch swing, a strikeout, a botched rundown - any outcome at all - has an entirely different meaning to Torre and Colletti when experienced by a 35-year-old instead of a 25-year-old. The veterans spend an entirely different currency.
Experience will not make anyone better than someone that is better than them. Experience will not save you.
If the Dodgers had handed their team over to every available kid, some things would have gone right and some things would have gone wrong. Meloan might have been worse as a swingman than Chan Ho Park. On the other hand, it's almost mathematically impossible for anyone to have been worse than Mark Sweeney.
But permitting failure by youth strikes Torre and Colletti as the height of irresponsibility. They simply can't allow it on their watch. Veterans, on the other hand, don't fail. They just need more time - which is true enough, since the clock has fewer ticks left for them. It's like a reverse Logan's Run: Life begins at 30.
Except it doesn't.
The Dodgers' dysfunction doesn't center on trade talks. It centers on leadership that hides its eyes as the kids grab the car keys, yet doesn't bat an eye when Grandpa's shaky hand and squinty eyes take the wheel. Colletti and Torre might say they like their team - they might insist that they do - but they don't. It makes them cringe. They have conditioned themselves to believe that youth cannot be trusted in a crisis, even though some of the bravest men and most heroic have been callow. The Dodgers would be better off with John Hughes or Kermit the Frog in charge - with leadership that embraces the follies of youth because of their faith in youth, and that ultimately believes in a meritocracy.
Until the Dodger leadership works through these issues, regardless of what trades might be on the table, they'll always be undermining themselves.
The Dodgers' pitching can win any playoff series. Underdogs? Sure. DOA? No way. The team is one game out of first place, and you know what? I'm too old to thumb my nose at that. The Dodgers should go for it. And they can do it without sacrificing the future, without being desperate. If they fail, it won't be because they weren't experienced enough. It will be because they weren't talented enough. And the talent is there. It has been there all along. Show a little faith - there's magic in the night.
It's like a reverse Logan's Run: Life begins at 30.
Colletti 5, at the end of the season: "There... is... no... sanctuary."
Joe Torre does not seem to have the same faith in youth as Duck Phillips.
This schizophrenia is an old Dodger disease, though. Since I've been a fan, every manager and GM, especially Lasorda and Claire, took the stance that somehow LA was different, fans here just couldn't and wouldn't stand for rebuilding, and yet the "Dodger Way" emphasized superior development of young players. So they try to do both, but take shelter in the notion that the fans and the culture are forcing their hand.
It was the fans who sent LaRoche and DeWitt down and wanted Casey Blake, doncha know? Because they want a winner. But it isn't the fans who keep giving infinite chances to Jones and Sweeney to turn things around, and who pencils Kent into the middle of every lineup, regardless of how hot he is or isn't. Sure the fans like Pierre, but they also like Ethier. They liked DeWitt, who listens, and Kemp, who doesn't.
Maybe the way the Dodger culture works, they should let the fans vote for the starting lineup each day, like American Idol. If the lineup gets us to the World Series, McCourt will build a statue to us. If not, we get fired and some new fans come in.
And the day the fans vote for the starting lineup will be a nightmare, if talkradio is any indication.
It centers on leadership that hides its eyes as the kids grab the car keys, yet doesn't bat an eye when Grandpa's shaky hand and squinty eyes take the wheel.
And while my American Idol notion was tongue in cheek, I have no doubt that in our lifetime, a team will try it.
http://www.newyorker.com/talk/2008/08/04/080804ta_talk_mcgrath
Yeah, Ned's luck sucks lately.
Yeah, and the thing is our talent is so young that a quality GM can still do amazing things with this team.
In the last thread I said we should start a Harlem Globetrotters type of agreement with the Nats.
After Magic, it was ugly for a bit but the fans embraced the young players when they started winning. The fan base really rooted for guys like Van Exel and Eddie Jones.
The last rebuilding process was a little different and more frustrating but it seems like the team is set to go on another roll for a few more years.
Seeing that the Lakers have won 3 titles and been in the finals 6 times since the last time the Dodgers won a playoff series, I'm thinking that the fans would have settled for a few rebuilding years a while back.
I will grant that it is much easier to rebuild an NBA team. It is even easier when you still have the best player in the league on your team and you fleece a dumb GM to pick up another great player.
D-Backs have smarter overall management, but we have a better minor league system. The D-Backs system is really feeling the effects of all their prospects being promoted to the bigs or being traded. We still have a solid system in place. If we are smart with our moves, we should be better than them for years to come.
Not in football, because it is too popular of a sport, but I believe basketball teams face at least equal or bigger problems when rebuilding.
lol, I've wondered if I could use that world myself.
word
Really, its Nomar and then maybe Martin and then the rest. They save their boos for Jones. The only pitcher who gets an above average reaction is Saito.
On other things people have brought up.
1. There's Nomar and everyone else in terms of being popular at the games. No starting pitcher, not Chad or the Minotaur, is exciting the fan base that much.
2. When you make the playoffs 44 out of 48 seasons and the longest stretch of not making the NBA Finals is 9 years (the Celtics just went 21 and the Bulls are going to be more than 10), its hard for me to consider them "rebuilding" unless you are of the mind that for the Lakers, its only titles that count.
3. Its probably the wrong term to use in terms of fans not wanting to see a rebuilding club, it was the O'Malley philosophy (or so I read) that he always wanted a team that could contend just enough to keep fans coming to the ballpark. And let's face it, until the last few years (during the '90s and until 2006) the Dodgers lacked the talent in the system to totally rebuild anyway. So they went out and spent money. That started with the 1988 team and has continued until today.
They like movie stars. They like Torre. They like Nomar. They like Pierre. They like Lasorda. The rest come and go.
Some periodically capture the fans' fantasy...Saito, Martin, DeWitt...
But I don't see anyone right now that the fans "love". We loved Orel, we loved Wills, we loved Fernando, but I don't see anyone on the current team that evokes this deep feeling. At least not right now.
It could change, or it could be a product of how sports is, that players change teams and have no loyalty (at least that is how most fans see it).
They're...beterans! As in, "The old guys are beteran the young ones."
It's as if Management made a quarter-hearted effort to let the kids play for the first part of the season, but made a firm and discernible decision that being in a Pennant Race™ now requires a different approach (i.e. strict reliance on beterans whenever possible). They just couldn't stomach the thought of putting players who haven't been there before out there over players who have, and it looks like they're gonna maximize the PT for the old players from here on out.
Good golly that's some fine writing.
It's not so much veteran talent as veteran presence, or just veteraness itself. The problem with our veterans is not that they're veterans: it's that they're not talented.
Also, I am shocked about the Pierre being surprised by cheering comment. I've been to at least 3/4 of the home games so far and haven't heard anything but hearty cheers for Juan. And trust me, I've been vocal at games about why he hasn't been one of the Dodgers best OF options.
I agree with above comments - this is great writing by Jon. It deserves some LA Times play and more.
The Laker front office would not agree with you. The fans left the team in droves in the early 90's and the waiting list for season tickets completely disappeared and didn't come back until Shaq showed up.
I'm not in town, so I am probably missing something, but sitting Jones for one day doesn't make it that Torre has seen the light.
Even though Torre is the manager, the Dodgers use Lasorda a lot more in advertising and promos. I don't know if this is just a factor of giving Lasorda more to do or if Lasorda is more popular than Torre (he likely is), but I've seen more of Lasorda on TV this year than I have in many years.
It's like they canceled "Mad Men" and replaced it with 23 hours a day of "Who's The Boss?"
Russell Martin was not even top five in NL catchers. I don't think anyone is exciting the general Dodger fan.
Thats a good point.
Most Dodger fans are apathetic. It shows in things like gate attendance, time spent at the stadium (the whole arrive in the 3rd leave in the 7th is almost mutually exclusive to the Dodgers...they should have it trademarked.
But, the problem is that the McCourts never seem to get that. If the fans are apathetic (which I'd argue they are), why cant the McCourts be willing to go with the youth movement full board or embrace the different Sabr philosophy? If the fans dont care either way, then why not think outside the box?
Its amazing that the McCourts have seemed to more concerned with traditional mass media criticsm, than over general fan apathy.
Uh-oh...
I'm in a really good mood and I intend to stay that way. So I'm staying out of that.
Why such a good mood...?
It's just that we have beautiful weather, tons and tons of seats (at good prices), convenient parking, and a populace who is connected to the game through a far-reaching (and congested, hence the come late leave early) transit system.
We also have the game's most beautiful stadium, with 2-3 possible exceptions (IMO).
In other words, there are a ton of reasons to come to the Dodgers game if you're a casual fan.
But our 25k matches up with anyone else's.
-- At every Dodger home game, there is a core of about 25,000 fans that watch every inning and countless others that do so on television - or wish that they could if not for traffic, etc. The existence of the ones that don't do this doesn't eliminate this.
"But, the problem is that the McCourts never seem to get that."
--If you believe the rumors, and it's up to you to believe, the McCourts are the first to complain that they're not getting enough out of the fan base.
"If the fans are apathetic (which I'd argue they are), why cant the McCourts be willing to go with the youth movement full board or embrace the different Sabr philosophy?"
-- Their first hire as GM was DePodesta. Fear of fan dissatisfaction with him was a large reason DePo was fired. They believed, for good reason, that Plaschke represented the common fan belief.
--Their second hire has gone with a youth movement that is only occasionally interrupted by vets. Prominent vets, to be sure, but the vets are outnumbered. The management of the youth movement has been dubious, but there's no denying it's a youth movement.
"If the fans dont care either way, then why not think outside the box? Its amazing that the McCourts have seemed to more concerned with traditional mass media criticsm, than over general fan apathy. "
They're very likely concerned with both, but believe they are connected.
Colletti appears to be on the hot seat, a year after he was McCourt's best hire. The new GM might reflect a new path. But that path might be further away from what you want. I'm not saying this will happen, but there are plenty of ways that the Dodgers could go more Old School.
What a great phrase! It's an image that will endure the remainder of the season. Thanks.
Yes. Ned definitely deserves to be fired, but his replacement wouldn't necessarily be any better. In fact, setting aside any knowledge we might have about particular replacement candidates, the odds are that a replacement would be just as bad. Ned is pretty typical as far as GMs go.
I would love to see that offset with a deal for Sabbathia, but our lower system could be loaded in a single season.
Right now I am just trying to look at something good since we sent Andy LaRoche down to make room for Sweeney. I feel for the guy almost to the point that I wish they would deal him just to give the poor guy some playing time. He deserves a legitimate shot.
3 extra base hits last night alone...
Is it freshly squeezed orange juice? =)
Great post. It's what I've been thinking except said a gazillion times better.
LaRoche needs to play every day, just as DeWitt needs to play every day. They aren't going to do that in LA as the team is presently constructed or managed.
Even if they got rid of Sweeney in favor of LaRoche, pinch hitting every couple of days is not going to enhance his career path.