In his National League preview, Peter Gammons put the Dodgers seventh. They topped a second tier of teams in the National League, but trailed St. Louis, San Francisco, Philadelphia, Arizona, Houston and Atlanta.

This seems reasonable.

However there were some oddities in GammonsÕ writeup on the Dodgers. For example, there was this sentence:

Doctors say [DreifortÕs] knee could be a problem as he gets up and down in the bullpen, so he may start, which along with Brown will require a sixth starter.

Can you translate this sentence for me? Is he implying a six-man rotation? Do starting pitchers not Òget up and down?Ó What does ÒwhichÓ modify?

Gammons also wrote that Òone big factor is that with McGriff in the middle of the lineup, catcher Paul Lo Duca can go back to the two hole and stop trying to carry the team.Ó

I get the sense that some scout or Dodger organization man fed Gammons this. In any case, IÕm not sure the numbers bear out what Gammons is saying.

Lo DucaÕs OPS by batting position:
#1 2.000 in 2002 (1 AB), .971 in 2001 (189 AB)
#2 .759 in 2002 (285 AB), .555 in 2001 (9 AB)
#3 .867 in 2002 (108 AB), .666 in 2001 (3 AB)
#4 .641 in 2002 (122 AB), 1.792 in 2001 (6 AB)
#5 .538 in 2002 (59 AB), .832 in 2001 (183 AB)

What really stands out is that .971 in the leadoff slot in Õ01. He had an on-base percentage of .378 and a slugging percentage of .593, hitting a home run every 13.5 at-bats batting first. By comparison, Dave Roberts OPS in 2002 was merely .697.

In any case, I donÕt really see enough consistency in Lo DucaÕs numbers to draw any firm conclusions, but with that .867 OPS in the No. 3 hole, itÕs hard to make the argument that Òcarrying the teamÓ dragged down LoDucaÕs production. IÕm guessing there were other issues involved.

HereÕs an interesting if no more conclusive chart Ð Lo DucaÕs OPS by month in 2002:
.779 April (Dodgers go 16-10)
.791 May (Dodgers go 15-13)
.876 June (Dodgers go 19-8)
.743 July (Dodgers go 10-16)
.440 August (Dodgers go 18-10)
.771 September (Dodgers go 14-13)

YouÕd think July and August should be flip-flopped. Essentially, the Dodgers seemed to cover up for Lo Duca during his worst month of the year.

I donÕt know what LoDuca will produce in his third season as a regular. But the Dodgers of 2002 didnÕt really depend on him offensively Ð his numbers offensively were barely better than KarrosÕ numbers were. (The difference is, LoDuca is a catcher, a position offense is at a premium. At first base, itÕs another story.)

Gammons is correct about one thing Ð if Lo Duca is forced to carry the Dodgers, then they are in trouble. But itÕs a fallacy to imply that Lo Duca was carrying the Dodgers last year Ð Shawn Green, Odalis Perez and Hideo Nomo were. If this misconception needs to be clarified for the competitive Lo Duca so that he doesnÕt press, it needs to be done verbally, not passive-aggressively through his batting order position.