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Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2006) (Hardball Times)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2007) (Hardball Times)
Dodger home record: 50-35 (.588)
When Jon attended: 9-5 (.643)
When Jon didn't: 41-30 (.577)
Dodgers at home: 795-635 (.556)
Jon attended: 302-238 (.559)*
Jon didn't: 498-404 (.552)
* includes road games attended
Current Roster with Estimated 2009 Salaries
(updated November 14)
Most figures are estimates (some are wild estimates) but will be updated as information comes in. Corrections welcome.
More contract details here.
Starting Pitchers (5)
$10,000,000 Hiroki Kuroda
*$475,000 Chad Billingsley
*$415,000 Clayton Kershaw
*$405,000 Eric Stults
*$400,000 James McDonald
*Total: $11,695,000
Bullpen (7)
*$2,500,000 Takashi Saito
*$1,300,000 Scott Proctor
*$1,500,000 Jonathan Broxton
*$425,000 Hong-Chih Kuo
*$420,000 Cory Wade
*$410,000 Ramon Troncoso
*$400,000 Scott Elbert
Total: $6,955,000
Also on 40-man roster
Mario Alvarez
Yhency Brazoban
Greg Miller
Justin Orenduff
Starting Lineup (8)
$17,100,000 Andruw Jones
*$3,000,000 Russell Martin
*$2,500,000 Andre Ethier
*$600,000 Matt Kemp
*$600,000 James Loney
*$500,000 Angel Berroa
*$410,000 Blake DeWitt
*$400,000 Tony Abreu
Total: $25,110,000
Bench (5)
$10,000,000 Juan Pierre
*$600,000 Jason Repko
*$410,000 Delwyn Young
*$400,000 Danny Ardoin
*$400,000 Chin-Lung Hu
Total: $11,810,000
Note: Team can buy out Ozuna's 2009 option for $200,000
Also on 40-man roster
A.J. Ellis
Lucas May
Xavier Paul
Disabled List
$12,000,000 Jason Schmidt
Also Paying ...
$2,000,000 Brad Penny (buyout of $9,000,000 option)
$50,000 Gary Bennett (buyout of $900,000 option)
Note: Kansas City is responsible for $500,000 buyout of Angel Berroa's $5,500,000 option for 2009.
Working total: *$68,020,000
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To paraphrase Gregory House, "Everybody loses." Dodger fans can't understand how their team is still in the National League West race; Arizona's faithful must wonder how their team can still be in first place. But there the Diamondbacks sit, mocking Los Angeles with their grandiose .511 winning percentage. It must feel pretty special (relatively speaking), right?
To get the lowdown on the day before another three-game showcase showdown between the two struggling clubs, I checked in with Jim McLennan of AZ Snakepit. Here's how our chat went:
Jon: Jim, the Dodgers have been nipping at Arizona's heels for months now, but haven't been able to do the leapfrog thing. In fact, now the Dodgers are back under .500 and as far out of the NL West lead as they've been all summer. How confident are you guys feeling about winning the division?
Jim: According to coolstandings.com, we have a 71.3 percent chance of winning the division at time of writing, but you'd be hard-pushed to find any Arizona fan who feels anywhere near that confident. Obviously, being in front is the place to be, and every game where the Dodgers don't catch up helps the Diamondbacks: time is on our side, not yours. That said, I'd be a lot more optimistic if both teams were playing well: it's hardly comfortable when our team motto is no longer, "Anybody, anytime," but "Well, at least Los Angeles lost, too." The question is as much, how confident are you guys feeling about not winning it?
Jon: The Phillies series, which reversed the Dodgers' four-game sweep of them earlier in the month, was as big a morale destroyer as I've seen all year, and things haven't gotten any better in Washington. But Arizona losing five of six during the same period just showed that, though Dodger fans shouldn't necessarily be confident, they shouldn't give up either.
Jim: Both teams made post-deadline moves, acquiring sluggers in Manny Ramirez and Adam Dunn. Why did the Dodgers not put in a claim on Dunn, to stop the Diamondbacks from getting him? And do you think either team has a realistic shot at signing their player long-term?
Jon: The Dodgers haven't addressed the claiming Dunn question officially; the conclusion we're left with is that it was a non-issue for them, and/or they didn't want to deal with the potential financial and roster implications of having him on the team. Neither of those answers are particularly satisfying for a lot of us.
The Dodgers will have the ability to sign a top-tier free agent this offseason, so I think they have a shot at Ramirez, but I don't know if the will is there. During the brief period in which Alex Rodriguez was a free agent last fall, the Dodgers didn't position themselves as serious contenders. I'm not saying the situations are identical, but I don't tend to think that a Ramirez deal will get done. I have to admit, I hadn't even gotten to the point of wondering whether Dunn would be with Arizona in 2009. What do you think?
Jim: While I'd like to see it, I'm doubtful we have enough room to make a competitive offer. It's a relatively thin free-agent market this year, and it's probable that we also have to replace Orlando Hudson at second base. If we hadn't already committed to paying Eric Byrnes through 2010, I could see us moving Conor Jackson to LF permanently, and making an offer, but I think we'll take the two draft picks and move on.
Here in Arizona, we expect to see pitching phenom Max Scherzer added to the Diamondbacks roster as part of the September expansion, though it's not sure if he will see playing time as a starter or strengthening the bullpen, which has struggled of late. Los Angeles have their own phenom in Clayton Kershaw, but there's some question as to whether he would be available in the playoffs, or even for the full season. How far do you see him going?
Jon: Part of the rationale behind the Greg Maddux pickup was to allow the Dodgers to stick to their plan of curtailing Kershaw's innings at about 170. You won't see Kershaw start in the playoffs even if the Dodgers have the opportunity, and I think he would be used sparingly in relief. Chad Billingsley, Derek Lowe, Hiroki Kuroda and Maddux would form the postseason rotation. It might be worth noting that James McDonald is another young starter who could see some action at least out of the bullpen in September.
I've noticed several commentators of late leaning toward Arizona because of their big three: Brandon Webb, Dan Haren and Randy Johnson. But Johnson's not exactly the pitcher he used to be. What's your feeling about the Diamondback rotation overall heading into the stretch run?
Jim: Johnson has been a second-half revelation. Many people expected him to flag, or be skipped occasionally to keep him fresh, but he hasn't missed a game all year - and has a 1.82 ERA, with a K:BB ratio of 53:7, in eight starts since the All-Star Game. He seems to have benefited from a side session he threw during the break, under the eye of pitching coach Tom House. Can he keep it up? Well, he could double that post-break ERA and still be a formidable #3. Personally, I'm more concerned about Doug Davis, who may be wearing down - understandably - after having his cancerous thyroid removed in April, or Yusmeiro Petit and his amazing .195 BABIP.
The Dodgers offense, even with Ramirez, is scuffling badly. The series opener against the Nationals made it eight consecutive games scoring three runs or less, tying an NL season-high. Is there a particular cause? And, perhaps more importantly for L.A., a cure?
Jon: They're slumping, slumping badly. This is a challenged offensive team, reliant for the most part on stringing hits together, but clearly, if this is some record-high streak of ineptitude in the NL for 2008, it's not the Dodgers' usual behavior. They are leaving runners on base rather than not getting them on in the first place, which is usually a sign that a team isn't hopeless at the plate. So the cure is time. Whether that cure will come soon enough, or with enough time remaining in the schedule, I don't know.
And yet, there's Arizona, with a chance to go four up in the division, letting San Diego knock out Webb. Neither of these teams can really seem to get their act together. Webb losing is obviously a fluke, but what is the Diamondbacks' biggest worry?
Jim: If anything is going to sink us, it's the bullpen. They have a second-half ERA of 5.34, and an 0-8 record after July 10. I've a nasty feeling manager Bob Melvin blew out Brandon Lyon's arm by using him in hard, back-to-back-to-back outings just after the break: his ERA before that was 2.43, but balloons to 12.75 since. Any apparent resulting lack of blown saves is largely because we've only had three in August - and Lyon had to be bailed out in one of those. While Melvin still professes confidence in his closer, I have little, and set-up man Jon Rauch, with his 6.19 ERA for us, isn't much more inspiring. We have good relievers - Juan Cruz and Tony Peña have generally been solid recently - but Melvin apparently dislikes using them in high-leverage situations for some reason.
But enough gloom and depression! Who - presumably outside of Manny - do you expect to step up and carry the Dodgers through the last month of the season?
Jon: Aside from Ramirez, I think it's really going to be up to the younger non-rookies - Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, James Loney and even Russell Martin, though he has logged more than 1,000 innings behind the plate, to have enough left to carry the offense. It's getting to be too late for Rafael Furcal to have much of an impact, though perhaps he might be able to offer occasional help off the bench in September. But overall, I think the key to the Dodgers winning will have to be pitching depth. Though Los Angeles can't match Arizona ace-for-ace, the Dodgers do have a solid staff top-to-bottom. There have been some blown saves, but I'm still confident in the group overall. I'm really hoping they can keep the muzzle on opponents in September.
And who will be Arizona's heroes, should they have heroes?
Jim: Justin Upton should return, and certainly has the chance - if he can regain his April form, where he batted 327/.372/.554. It's a big "if" however, since he hit below .200 after that. Third-baseman Mark Reynolds is notoriously streaky, so could get hot down the stretch too. But it's the rotation that has taken Arizona this far, and it'll be them that we need to keep us in games. In particular, I'd love to see Davis come through with some clutch performances: it'd be the ultimate feel-good story off the season, to go from being diagnosed with cancer to leading his team into the playoffs.
Looking into the post-season, how do you think the Dodgers would match-up against the other contenders? Who do you fear most?
Jon: I mostly fear the television industry making fun of the Dodgers even being in the postseason. I can't even think about potential Dodger playoff opponents. I just know that the pitching staff would have to come up huge, and the Dodgers would basically just need to get some of the luck that has eluded them since 1988.
Jim: I look forward to the ESPN angst if L.A. or Arizona make the playoffs, and the Yankees don't, despite a better record! I feel the same about Arizona's chances - but once you reach the playoffs, the first 162 games become meaningless. That's probably the biggest thing either of our teams have in their favor.
Jon: Okay, that should do it for now, Jim. Thanks for the chat and we'll just wait to see if Colorado passes both these teams by ...
It's good to see that we're not the only ones with problems in MLB... and that Dbacks fans share the same frustration.
So no matter what the differences are between division rivals, fans of every team have the same passion for the game. That's comforting to know.
The Dodgers are in Washington, roughly 2,300 miles away, and they have to play tonight, then travel to Arizona for tomorrow night's game, while Arizona played a day game yesterday San Diego, took the hour flight home, and gets today off.
I have two different brothers attending Dodger games in the next three days, so hopefully they can bring them more luck than I have.
4 Yah, I had the same reaction. Assumed it was a morning game and lo! The schedulemakers add a cruel twist to the Dodgers already rough past week. Be nice to get on that plane with a win, at least.
For better or worse, I pretty much gave up on this team when we traded Carlos Santana for Casey Blake. At that point, I just could not deal psychologically with our upper management.
More recently, the team's almost daily inability to capitalize on opportunities has made me give up again [!]. Good teams take every advantage given to them; we don't. The only hope we have left is if we somehow radically turn it all around. I just don't see that happening.
The Arizona situation just makes this year all the more frustrating. The fact that the division leader is mediocre doesn't change my impression of this team at all. We are less than good.
The Ned Colletti era is going to end with the quietest of whimpers--and a whole lot of decisions to be made this offseason.
It would be nice being only 1 GB (or better) with 19 games to play, heading into the series in San Diego, which will be the first Dodgers' sweep in SD since June 28 - July 1, 2001.
That was me. Thank you for looking that up, scareduck.
Wow only 8... let's hope it stays that way.
Once you've experienced 1980, anything can happen!
Well put. The combination of productive farm system, high payroll, and attractive geography/history should make failure not an option.
Please explain how you know this.
Is it basically, teams that lose have no heart?
The combination of productive farm system, high payroll, and attractive geography/history should make failure not an option.
That's part of the problem, though. I think the Dodger organization, for 20 years at least, rested on its laurels, assuming that great players will just run to Dodger Stadium.
Somewhere down the line the Dodgers as a whole has to realize "we are not very good, we have not been very good, and if we don't recognize our weaknesses, we will never be any good."
I thought the Dodgers were getting there until the last two years. Then Ned and Frank assume that, once again "we're just a player away." It's just not true.
It's better than post-2004 Red Sox fans!
Whether you agree or not agree on how they allocated their spending dollars, if we are use their payroll as an example of anything, it would be that they are willing to spend the money to try and build a competitive team.
As far as heart goes, for this year's team, heart was certainly apparent when I saw them comeback against the Phillies down 6-1, two weeks ago. I always think a run scoring drought does more to affect a fan's psyche than bad pitching or even a blown save. When a team is constantly leaving runners on base or doing things out of synch, it just looks to the fan like the players are out of it.
We all follow the numbers here to a certain extent, some a lot more than others and yet its hard to believe that while the other seems to get that one break to score a run with 2 outs, this team somehow blows chance after chance, even with the bases loaded and nobody out.
The Dodgers may not be able to recover this nearly 2 week stretch but they still have their fate in their hands, it might be painful and discouraging, but I will be there until the end.
For the Dodgers sake, they should try to be no more than 1-2 games out by next Friday since that is the deadline for playoff tix.
I'd argue that the problem is not so emotional but just a matter of smarts.
So maybe we're just having a semantics issue here. You're throwing a lot of words out there, some of which I'd agree with: pride, arrogance, lack of vision. But "heart" to me implies caring, and I don't think it's fair to accuse members of the Dodger organization of not caring.
Meanwhile you get this sense from Charley and Steve that the Dodgers are expected to win every game. Confidence is good, but that kind of arrogance isn't good if it isn't earned. You can't expect a team built to go .500 to win 120 games. There needs be perspective.
Jon is right. No matter what the liabilities are for our club, "not caring" will never be one of them.
37 success is measured in different ways for different people, and it is by what is important to them, not to others
I'm asking in all honesty: what is it about the Angels that makes them current torchbearers of the Dodger Way? Is it just that Scioscia, Hatcher, et al were ex-Dodgers? They have obviously been successful in the past few years, but what are the specifically doing different besides "attitude" that makes them successful?
If you extend that situation to the past several years you have to consider management and ownership. I will be nearly suicidal if we emerge from this long run of great farm system work only mediocre. Its hard to state how hard it would be to botch things up after the string of gifts the farm system has yielded, and we haven't quite messed it up yet.
When people ask me why I don't write my own stuff anymore, I say, "I just don't want it all that much."
In other words, I have no heart.
And yes, I know why that's a problematic sentence, but the point is still valid.
Also, since the Angels are winning, their past few years of wildly spending Arte's money gets underplayed and certainly they had some contracts leftover from the Stoneman/Disney days that they are finally getting rid of but giving extensions to Kelvim Escobar with his injury history, the large contract to Bartolo Colon, Gary Matthews Jr., numerous middle relievers and their farm system, while certainly productive, has had their share of misses.
I am not saying that the Dodgers will ever be like it was in 1977, it can't be, free agency changed that forever. But baseball teams and management is and always will be pretty much the same, the problems that bother the 2008 Dodgers were probably no different than any other frustrating ball team that has picked up a glove and bat in the long history of the game.
all this talk about heart reminds me of barracuda
You compare the Dodgers to the look that champions have, but don't you think it's a lot easier to project the right image when you've been on a winning run? Did the Dodgers have the look of no heart when they were down by five against Philadelphia two weeks ago?
I think trying to judge a team's emotional worth from a snapshot of TV images is a waste of time, but we can agree to disagree.
And to that extent, I do tend to believe that some fans (I am not saying this about anyone on this particular thread), really miss Tommy's constant chatter and emotions on his sleeve approach to managing.
Which is totally counter to both Mike Scioscia and Joe Torre.
It's generous to call the 1990s a draw. Certainly the Angels have dominated the landscape during the aughts, but the Dodgers relatively ruled the roost in the 1990s:
Dodgers
797-757 (.513), 2 divisions (counting '94), 4 more 2nd place finishes (1 Wild Card), only finished lower than 3rd twice
Angels
738-817 (.475), 3 second place finishes (their only finishes higher than 4th), no playoff experiences
Factor in the periwinkle uniforms of the latter portion of the decade, and the 1990s was all Dodgers. :)
Ha, yea... I hear ya. I think you can hold the GM to higher standards though. You probably were not at Andruw's physical, Schmidt's doctors office/scout room etc..... sure, stuff happens though.