I'm hoping for the best, but since the team is at .500, I'm fully expecting a day (or two) up followed by a day (or two) down.

If the Dodgers don't win this series, I will tear off my clothes in the middle of the street, beat myself across the chest and set my hair on fire while speaking in tongues.

I don't think I've ever seen comment #1 deleted. Bad start to the day (and I missed it).

0 Great analysis (as usual).

My analysis-
1. They have 10 road games while we have 13 and both of us are better at home.
2. They are 2 better in the loss column.

Advantage D'backs.

We don't have to win 2 of 3 but it sure would be nice.

The only time Lowe & Haren have faced off was April 23, a game won 8-3 by the Dodgers at home.

I'm not sure how this weekend will go, but the Dodgers are going to sweep the Padres, who will be starting some combo of Baek-Leblanc-Estes-Geer in the 3 games. I'm due some karmic payback for the club's 8-21 record in SD with me in attendance.

Here's to Stephen Drew getting a bad cheeseburger somewhere today. A slip and fall in the shower wouldn't be too bad either.

6
That's what he gets for eating his cheeseburgers in the shower!

Homer: Mmmmm... Shower Cheeseburgers...

5 the Dodgers are going to sweep the Padres That's what I said before we played the Nat's.

If we can get to the 19th down 1, we'll probably win. Colorado is almost certain to think they are alive (unless they completely tank) due to the fact they'll have 6 left head to head with Arizona, and with what happened last year.

My off-shore bookie tells me LA is -130 and Arizona is +110 for this series

3

That's pretty bold, DL. Would you settle for buying a Toby Hall jersey and then posting the photo?

What happened to comment 1?

The Dodgers win two of three this weekend.
We have to assume, with our rose-colored glasses on, that they will win five of the six against the Padres and four of the six against the Giants, and three of the four against the Pirates. That leaves Colorado, where we will lose two of three. 15-6, a very optimistic estimate from here on out, wins the division. But against that schedule, we can do it.

0 Next series, advantage LA.

We miss Peavy, Arizona faces Lincecum on Monday.

Comment 1? Comment 1 don't come around here no more.

15 So, if my count is correct, if it all comes down to the last day of the season to decide it - we could be facing Lincecum?

13 "I am the new number two. You are number thirteen."

"Where is number one?"

"That would be telling, number thirteen."

"I am not a number. I am a free man!"

I can remember the Dodgers beating the Big Red Machine in a critical series only to go flat during the next 10 games while the Reds more than made up for losing to the Dodgers. The Dodgers need to win and then take care of business and not relax.

I wrote comment one. In it, I:

Cursed Bob Timmerman personally and tried to goad him into cursing me back while also calling Sarah Palin the anti-Christ, whatever, and then I called her the anti-Christ again, while noting that, as of now, Derek Lowe hadn't given up any baserunners today, and then saying that I didn't care that I was breaking the rules. I did this while totally drunk and stoned and why is everyone on this board out to get me?

The $$ are wild estimates but 2009 could maybe possibly look like this:

Starting Pitchers (5)
$12,300,000 Hiroki Kuroda
$1,000,000 Chad Billingsley
$21,000,000 CC Sabathia
$400,000 Kershaw
$400,000 Elbert

Total: $35,000,000

Bullpen (6)
$2,000,000 Takashi Saito
$1,925,000 Joe Beimel
$500,000 Wade
$1,000,000 Jonathan Broxton
$500,000 McDonald
$1,000,000 Hong-Chih Kuo

Total: $7,000,000

Starting Lineup (8)
$1,000,000 Russell Martin
$1,000,000 James Loney
$1,000,000 Matt Kemp
$1,000,000 Andre Ethier
$400,000 Chin-Lung Hu
$500,000 Blake DeWitt
$500,000 Tony Abreu
$25,000,000 Manny

Total: $30,500.000

Bench: 6
$12,000,000 Jason Schmidt
$14,100,000 Andruw Jones
$8,000,000 Juan Pierre
$500,000 Catcher
$500,000 Outfielder
$500,000 Infielder

Total: $35,600,000

Grand total: $108,100,000

18 Stop that, or Bob will send a "Rover" after you!

Predictions?

This is the team that lost 8 in a row including 3 to the Nats and now has won 5 in row. This team is totally unpredictable. We could win the division by 4 or we could finish 3rd or anywhere in between.
At least it's fun. If we win we get to bask in our teams success. If we lose we get to watch DL (will it be on you tube?)

If the Dodgers win 2 out of 3 this weekend, they'll finish 9-9 vs Arizona this season. If the teams end up tied at the end of the season, do they play a one-game playoff to see who wins the West?

21.
Looking over that list, its pretty easy to see why McCourt is depressed. He's paying huge money to worthless PVL's - Schmidt, Jones and Pierre, while most of the key performers are being paid peanuts.

24 I believe so, yep.

Good perspective check and useful post to keep around, Jon.

I only hope the Dodgers don't go into that series in Pittsburgh the way they did in that Nats' series, the last one on a road trip vs. team you should beat and then roll over and die. Of course, the Nats were pretty hot during that stretch in general.

21 Couple things:

Martin, Saito, Ethier and Broxton are arbitration eligible and will make more than a million this year. Somewhere between 2-6 million this year.

Beimel isn't taking a paycut after this year. He's a proven LOOGY now and will demand a multi year contract.

If you're cutting Penny you need to pay his buyout.

If the Dodgers lose 2 of 3 this weekend, then its over.

The team is a bad road team, and I cant see them making up a 2.5 game difference over AZ playing 13 of 19 on the road.

Dodgers need to win at least 2 this series.

0 Looking deeper , if these teams all keep their current rotation.

Dodgers
SD 6 times- Peavy once
SF 6 times- Cain once
Arizona
SF 7 times- Lincecum twice, Cain once
Cin 3 times- Harang, Cueto, Volquez
StL 4 times- Wainright once.

Its crazy how many times the Dodgers have missed Lincecum.

20 Hey at least you didn't violate rules 1 or 4.

28 It ain't over 'til JoeyP says it's over!

8

Krispy Kreme Bacon Cheddar Cheeseburger

http://tinyurl.com/6d4b44

How is San Diego a tougher atmosphere to play in than San Francisco?

34
How is San Diego a tougher atmosphere to play in than San Francisco?

2004-2008 Dodger Road Records
in SF: 26-18
in SD: 18-24

34 - Because San Diego hates the Dodgers more than San Francisco hates the Diamondbacks.

36. I daresay it might be the case that SD hates the Dodgers more than SF hates the Dodgers these days. Giants fans are more blase than they used to be (which is fine by me).

5 I'm not sure how this weekend will go, but the Dodgers are going to sweep the Padres, who will be starting some combo of Baek-Leblanc-Estes-Geer in the 3 games.

I realize that this is your opinion but some people will read your statement and think that the season is over if the Dodgers don't sweep the Padres. You can never assume a sweep on the road against any major league team. Momentum can shift so quickly during this time of year.

28 If the Dodgers lose 2 of 3 this weekend, then its over.

The season would not be even close to over if the Dodgers lose 2 of 3 this weekend to Arizona. And nobody should be calling any of these games "must win" games like they did last week in Phoenix. Arizona is a team that is 9 games below .500 since mid-May. They are just as capable of collapsing down the stretch as anyone else.

Let's enjoy the games this weekend and not panic whenever a play doesn't go the team's way. Barring another key injury or two, I really like the Dodgers chances here.

21 Here's the numbers I did a couple weeks ago assuming we don't do anything this off season.

Russell Martin ~ $6,000,000
James Loney ~ $500,000
Ivan DeJesus ~ $400,000
Chin-Lung Hu ~ $400,000
Blake DeWitt ~ $420,000
Andre Ethier ~ $2,500,000
Andruw Jones - $17,100,000
Matt Kemp ~ $500,000

Chad Billingsley ~ $500,000
Hiroki Kuroda - $10,000,000
Brad Penny - $9,250,000
Clayton Kershaw ~ $420,000
James McDonald ~ $400,000

Juan Pierre - $10,000,000
Delwyn Young ~ $450,000
John Lindsey ~ $400,000
Tony Abreu ~ $400,000
A.J. Ellis ~ $400,000

Takashi Saito ~ $5,000,000
Jonathan Broxton ~ $2,000,000
Hong-Chih Kuo - $500,000
Scott Proctor ~ $1,300,000
Cory Wade ~ $420,000
Ramon Troncoso ~ $420,000
Eric Stults ~ $420,000

Jason Schmidt - $16,000,000
Rafael Furcal - $4,000,000
Nomar Garciaparra - $1,250,000
Esteban Loaiza - $375,000

Total $91,725,000

Cutting Penny saves you 7.25 million and it's reasonable to think we'd ditch Proctor. You can save around 10 million on this with that and if I over estimated arbitration.

35
Also, the Padres were better than the Giants for all of that time period, except for this year.

This may have been noted, but the Dodgers will have to become more road warriors and less roadkill to make the playoffs, period==

Current record: Home: 42-30  Road: 28-40

Going to the game tonight. Oooooooh, boy, is this weekend going to be fun! If we win.

Sabathia is going to get a 7 year 180-200 million dollar contract from a team like the Rangers (Milton Bradley is C.C's Jack Haley), or the Yanks/Mets. Dodgers will bring back Manny, and either sign a pitcher like Loshe, or go with Penny.

The Dodgers have played well at AT&T.

It was just two years ago when the Dodgers were in a battle with the Phillies and the Padres going into that last weekend in San Francisco, Drew hits a home run in the 7th to bring the Dodgers within 1 and then the Tomato gets the clutch hit to drive in the tying run.

The next day, Maddux pitched 7 great innings and Sammy smiled.

38
I won't be disappointed if the Dodgers don't sweep in San Diego, and I know its not likely or even probable. I'm just trying to will it to happen.

44
The next day, Maddux pitched 7 great innings and Sammy smiled

I was sitting next to Mia Hamm, Carolyn Hughes, and Russ Martin Sr. celebrating!

46 That's Big Russ to you. I sat next to him at Coors a few days earlier. Very nice man. He received a call on his cell saying Pujols just hit a bomb to beat SD and was so excited.

39 I would take out Saito, insert Blake for $9M and Manny for $20M. I figure they spend the Penny money on either him or a FA. That's $115M for 2009 and around $85M for 2010.

24 The Dodgers would play a one-game playoff if they end up tied at the top with D'backs, even if they are not tied against each other 9-9 in season games. It's only when the teams are in the strongest division, such that the loser would become the NL wild card and make the divisional series anyway, as in 2006 Dodgers-Padres, that they skip the one-game playoff and give the division and home advantage (playing the worse team of the other two divisions) on the basis of head-to-head records.

1. The team with the best record in head to head play.
2. The team with the best overall record ignoring interleague play.
3. The team with the best record in the final 81 games of the season, ignoring interleague play.
4. The team with the best record in the final 82 games of the season, extending backward until the tie is broken (since teams in the same division play each other as many as 19 times, this step is guaranteed to break the tie. Interleague games are skipped and ignored in this process.)

All this to avoid a playoff. (It's even more complicated when 3 teams are tied.) But when the (two) tied teams are from a weaker division, like us this year, such that only the no. 1 team gets to the playoffs, they play a one-game playoff to decide it, no matter what the head-to-head record was. (E.g. 1995 NL West, where Mariners beat the Angels in the one-game playoff and went to the ALDS though they were 5-7 vs. Angels during the season.)

Except that yours truly will be going to a game in SF that final weekend, and could probably share the blame if they lose. Giants fans may not be quite as passionate as they were at the 'stick, but they're still pretty passionate about hating the Dodgers/beating LA, believe me. If they have a chance to knock the Dodgers out of contention, the fans will be there and rooting hard for it. Which may have nothing to do with how the Giants themselves play it, but if we have to face Lincecum there with playoffs on the line, I don't know if I want to be there. My dad will disagree with me since he's going too, but I'd rather watch the Dodgers B squad that weekend because they've already made the playoffs than the alternative.

Two questions. If they've been covered, I missed it, which wouldn't be unusual===

1) Given the team's trouble stranding runners, where do the Dodgers rank statistically in RISP conversion? Have they been bad enough long enough to rank among the worst for more than just this year? Which they probably do, at least for '08.

2) What is the average for LOB per game? Seems like the Dodgers would rank really high there (unfortunately).

Ok, so I guess it's 3 questions. Thanks for any help reducing my ignorance, which is a big job.

49 1995 example was AL West, of course.

By the way! There is still room in my scriptwriting workshop so if you know anyone in the SF Bay Area who would like to get that script (or script idea) out of mothballs, I can squeeze them in and give a DT discount (off the already cheap price). It's at Fort Mason in SF, starts tomorrow, meets every other week. Should be really fun. Tell your friends. Can email me at underdog8 at gmail dot com, or my blog at underdog.typepad.com.

[/advertisement]

Ok, my very un-scientific and probably very wrong calculations look like this

Dodgers
vs. SD (Peavy 1) 3-3
vs. SF (Cain 1) 4-2
vs. Pitt 3-1
vs. Col 1-2
Total- 11-8

Arizona
vs. SF (Lincecum 2, Cain 1) 3-4
vs. Cin (Harang, Cueto, Volquez) 1-2
vs. StL (Wainwright) 2-2
vs. Col. 4-2
Total- 10-10

So the winner of tonight's game will be playing for the divison crown tomorrow.

I am swimming upstream in this thread because I don't want to get my head into the next three games.

I think, because Sabathia wants to hit and play on west coast, the Dodgers can get him for 7 years closer to $150,000 than $180,000. I also think for him to get $25,000/yr he will have to settle for a five year contract and if with the Dodgers accept about $21 million in the first year.

I think the Dodgers can trade Pierre if they pay about $2 million a year on his salary.

I think the Dodgers could find a way to trade Kuroda and Saito to Seattle for Putz if the Dodgers sign Sabathia.

Add three zeros where needed in 55.

Johan got 23 million a year and he never hit the open market. It's reasonable to think that Sabathia can start the bidding at 6/150 and go from there.

zeroes

54 Funny thing is, it wouldn't surprise me at all if that prediction came out dead accurate. Except that the Dodgers won't win 3 out of 4 in Pittsburgh, which is already starting to smell like the Washington series all over again. I'm hoping for a split.

51 The Dodgers rank in the lower third of the league in RISP. But there are 7 teams worse than them, fwiw. Their slugging pct is last with RISP but their OPB is not bad at all. Weird. AND with RISP and two outs, their numbers are much better.

http://tinyurl.com/6z4ujh

30

The time we did see him we had a rain delay if I remember correctly.

Russell Martin making $6 million this year? Isn't that a bit on the higher end?

61 That was Bills' first game of the season right?

33 Those things should be chicken-fried.

62
Cue rant about Ryan Howard's arbitration win last winter.

62 Next year. Maybe I'm over reacting to Ryan Howard's arbitration numbers but if he got 10 million, there's no reason Russ shouldn't get five or six.

53 - Nice blog, underdog. Looks like a great workshop. I am a screenwriter in the bay area, but I wont be around this weekend. I'll bookmark the blog and keep an eye out for the next one you do.

67 Thanks! Let me know. You could also squeeze in starting at the 2nd session (I could catch you up on what you missed) if you want to start late. It's every other Saturday starting tomorrow, for 5 meetings. DT discount would apply. :-)

And it's all women in the workshop so far! What could be better than that?

It's all coming down to how we do against the Giants.

As a Dodgers fan (or a Giants fan) would you want it any other way?

Given that the only thing SF has left to play for is to beat the Dodgers, I would posit that the Dodgers have MUCH harder schedule the rest of the way.

While I'd love it if they can take 2/3 from AZ and then sweep in SD, my version of acceptance is:

If the Dodgers fall out of the race in the next week, all the rest of our games are with non-contenders. Therefore, we can shut down most of the veterans (as well as Kershaw) and hold a kind of pre-Fall league camp, where the management and fans can see a lot more Hu, Dejesus, Young, McDonald, Elbert and so on. For fan interest, we could keep running Manny out there, and some of the younger starters like Kemp and Loney ought to have a chance to reach statistical goals. The point is, this period will give management and ownership (and the media) chance to see how the cheaper, younger players perform. This will help focus our GM, whoever s/he might be, on what we really need from the FA and trade market, and what we don't need. The Andruw Jones debacle would have been avoided if Ned could have foreseen the power production he would get from Ethier, for example. For 2009, all the questions are in the infield, with only first base settled. If it's Ned, he might scratch around for PVLs to play second, third and/or short -- but not if Dejesus, Hu and Dewitt demonstrate that he's better off sticking with them. If they play well, then maybe the Dodgers would take a flyer on Furcal, but otherwise stand pat.

Still, the idea of seeing our current team in the playoffs has some appeal. Streakiness can be fun in the post-season.

55 Seeing those numbers that way made me think it was 1977 again. Wow do you think we can really get Sabathia for $180,000??? And does it still cost $3 to sit in the bleachers?

"As a Dodgers fan (or a Giants fan) would you want it any other way?"

Yes. I'd rather the Dodgers be waltzing into September with a 17 game lead like the Angels are.

72 The CBA won't allow for players to get less than ~$380,000.

56 $180,000 + 0 + 0 + 0 = $180,000

74
It's $390k this year, and $400k in 2009-2010.

I miss Pen Thoughts.

I know what happened to comment 1...

While I have definitely been a pessimist this season, I do believe that IF we get to the playoffs, anything's possible. The Cubs are a great team, but I'd consider us highly capable of winning a five-game set.

As for Arizona, here's to a series of good pitching, solid defense, and smart baserunning.

77 I've been using Pilot Precise Rolling Ball pens (Black/Fine) ever since I can remember.

78 Was it a reference to the latest FJM piece? I didn't see any mention of it here otherwise, apologies if I just missed it.

http://www.firejoemorgan.com/2008/09/jiminy-christmas.html

>>I'm not sure what to make of this.

The tone and content are so over-the-top fawning that I initially thought it was satirical. After all, Simers has been critical of the Dodgers' front office -- and in this same wry manner -- before. So, read and enjoy with this warning: the joke may be on you. Yes, you, not me. I am infallible. Plus, as is always our preference here at FJM, we like to take everything at face value, because then we have more ways to avoid working at our real jobs.

One way or the other, you have to love the headline:

It's a no-brainer, Dodgers' Ned Colletti is baseball's best general manager

...

No. No, he is not.

And furthermore, hypothetically serious-and-not-satirical L.A. Times: you think it's a "no-brainer?!" You not only think that Ned Coletti is baseball's best general manager, you think the fact that Ned Coletti is baseball's best manager is a ((bleep)) no brainer?

(Man, I hope this isn't a parody. Because I am already borderline-hysterical, and we're only at the headline.)<<

78 Tell us then.

78 Andruw Jones ate it?