It's Official: Kuo On, Saito Off

Hong Chih-Kuo has officially replaced Takashi Saito on the Dodger roster for the NCLS, the team announced Thursday morning.

Previously: The Dodger Thoughts 2008 Postseason Guide

Has it only been a week since our last playoff series opener? I think we've lived half a lifetime in those seven-plus days. In any case, here are some news and views on the Dodgers heading into Thursday's National League Championship Series opener against Philadelphia.

Catchers (2): Russell Martin, Danny Ardoin

Martin seemed rejuvenated in the NL Division Series – a likely cause being the off days he received heading in. In the past 14 days, Martin has played 38 innings of baseball. That doesn't guarantee anything, but Dodger fans will embrace his rest. In six career postseason games, Martin has a .930 OPS, and he'll bat cleanup in Game 1. Ardoin remains an emergency catcher.

Infielders (8): James Loney, Blake DeWitt, Rafael Furcal, Casey Blake, Nomar Garciaparra, Angel Berroa, Jeff Kent, Pablo Ozuna

Loney had three hits in the NLDS, but two of them were game-winning blasts. It seemed like he might be benched against a left-handed starter like Cole Hamels, but he has been given the start in Game 1. (Hamels' career numbers are actually worse against lefties.) The same rationale will also help keep DeWitt in the lineup and an eager Kent on the bench, though you could see Kent appear in a game in a double-switch.

On the left side of the infield, Furcal made his case for Comeback Player of the Week honors by reaching 7 out of 15 times in the NLDS after seeing first base only three times since May 5. He's a huge presence at the top of the lineup, but who among us isn't still holding their breath with every move he makes. (Side note: That RBI bunt single in Chicago was the kind of thing a lesser player would have been vilified for attempting - let's hear it for execution.) His mate at third base, Blake, had a fairly quiet NLDS - three singles, no walks – but as someone who slugged .531 on the road this year, he might have a home run lurking inside him for Philly.

Garciaparra wasn't needed at all in the NLDS, but he'll have his chances off the bench this time around. One wonders if a rested Garciaparra might be the first choice as a backup to Furcal, but if recent form holds, Berroa will be the first infielder off the bench defensively. Ozuna stands by.

Outfielders (4): Manny Ramirez, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Juan Pierre

There might be a good amount of early series chatter about the struggles Ramirez has had at Citizen's Bank Park: .264 on-base percentage, .647 OPS - and whether Phillies skipper Charlie Manuel, who managed Ramirez in AAA, has some unique hold on him. All three of Ramirez's career homers at the ballpark came in 2005. My guess is that Ramirez's Citizen numbers relate to small sample size, but it will certainly be a story if the Phils can hold him down. (It's not that Manuel is fearless - he did walk Ramirez intentionally four times this year.)

Neither Kemp nor Ethier earned any Star of the Game honors against Chicago, but as quiet series go, they made some noise. Ethier went 1 for 10 but walked four times, seeing 62 pitches (4.4 per at bat). His discipline in Game 1 set up Loney's series-seizing grand slam, and his long fly to right with two on in Game 3 came close to being the capper on the NLDS itself. In the first minute of the post-series celebration, Torre gave Ethier an unmistakably encouraging pep talk, hands on both cheeks like a father boosting a son. Despite his .100 batting average, Ethier did not fade in the NLDS, and a rebound seems more than plausible in the coming week.

Kemp only reached base twice in the NLDS, both times hitting doubles. He struck out five times, and made hearts skip when a Game 3 flyball nearly went over his head. It was not a good series for him. But how many times has he looked bad and then quickly stunned you with a huge game? For those of you who care about Ramirez's sub-par showing against Philadelphia this year, Kemp OPSed .908 against the Phillies in 2008.

Pierre was 0 for 1 against Chicago and doesn't figure to get much more playing time, barring the unfortunate. A homer-happy park like the Phillies play doesn't help Pierre at all, whose warning track is the infield dirt. But there's still potential pinch-running heroism in his future.

Pitchers (11 of these 12): Derek Lowe, Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda, Clayton Kershaw, Jonathan Broxton, Joe Beimel, Cory Wade, Chan Ho Park, James McDonald, Greg Maddux, Takashi Saito, Hong-Chih Kuo

Lowe has assumed the role of staff ace even though Billingsley had the better overall year. No one's complaining, as Lowe has been superb since August 6: a 1.41 ERA including the postseason. In that time, Lowe has also gotten better fielding than usual - he hasn't allowed an unearned run. That's critical to his success. It's hard to imagine a scenario in which a healthy Lowe does not start Game 4 on three days' rest, setting himself up for a potential Game 7 start on regular rest - except for the unlikely prospect of the Dodgers being up 3-0. But be prepared: If CC Sabathia can have a bad game against the Phillies, so can Lowe.

Should the Dodgers hold Lowe out for Game 5, that would set up their Game 2 starter, the 24-year-old Billingsley, to start Game 6 as well. The Eyes-on-the-Prize Winner of Defiance, Ohio answered questions about his October physical and mental makeup with outstanding work in Game 2 against Chicago. Billingsley has thrown only 119 pitches in the past two weeks, so odds are good he'll continue his postseason second wind.

Kuroda has gotten swept up in the post-NLDS praise for Dodger starting pitching. If he was a bit underrated heading into that series, perhaps he has been a bit overrated coming out of it. He was often in trouble against Chicago, particularly because of his difficulties in closing out hitters with two strikes. The Phillies don't figure to let him off the hook so easily. That being said, Kuroda did leave with a shutout intact and will benefit from pitching the upcoming Game 3 once more in front of a fervently supportive Dodger Stadium crowd.

As close followers of the Dodgers know by now, the fate of lefty Kuo will affect the fate of lefty Kershaw. Kuo seems to have the green light to pitch against the Phillies but won't be used on back-to-back days - meaning that means Kershaw will be on call in relief in at least one of the opening two games of the series. That doesn't preclude him from starting Game 4, but again, you have to ask yourself, do the Dodgers put a 20-year-old who has at this point not pitched in a game since September 28 into a start when they could use Lowe? It would potentially be the stuff of legend, but the Dodgers will be blessed if they haven't needed to make the most out of Kershaw in relief before then.

Torre has shown some interest in making Maddux the third right-handed reliever, setting up Wade and Broxton, especially if Saito is left off the roster. But given the probability that Beimel and Kershaw or Kuo will help shoulder much of the bullpen work for the Dodgers (with McDonald and Park as the long relievers should events go badly or long), it wouldn't be a surprise for Torre to hold Maddux back for a Dodger Stadium Game 4.

A final word about Saito: It's my feeling that reports of his demise as first-choice Dodger closer have been exaggerated. Yes, if his health or mechanics are bothering him and the team decides he can't pitch, that's one thing. But too much has been made about the results of his Game 2 outing in Chicago. He entered the game with a 10-1 lead in the ninth inning, meaning he had one principal mission on each pitch: throw a strike. On eight of 13 pitches, he succeeded. Yes, three of those pitches were ripped for hits - by the Cubs' No. 3, 4 and 5 hitters. But it's only because Saito's health is a concern that this was even an issue.

In the next game, Broxton, who followed Saito in Game 2 by allowing a walk and a line-drive out before striking out the final two batters - closed out the series with tremendous authority, striking out three of four. And suddenly, the man whom for two months I had to repeatedly defend against questioning that he could be a closer was declared by the whole world to be one.

I couldn't be more gratified or happier for Broxton. But I don't see this changing of the guard here to be any different than what we saw two months ago. In my opinion, if Saito were to be 100 percent in the NLCS, then Broxton pitches the eighth and Saito pitches the ninth (except in a situation like we had Saturday, when Broxton breezed through his portion of the eighth and there was no reason to take him out). Or to put it another way: As thrilling as Broxton was in Game 3, he's still going to have outings like he had in Game 2. That being the case, would he still be the closer over a healthy Saito? Seems unlikely.

Of course, in the end most of this is irrelevant for me. I'm no fan of the closer title to begin with. The beauty of the Dodger bullpen is that in a given situation, a healthy Kuo might be better than any of these guys. My point is that with Broxton and Saito, there's been a lot of bandwagon hopping, in both directions. The fact is that most of the time, these guys are great but fallible relievers. Injuries will dictate their usage, but if they're healthy, the Dodgers should be comfortable with any of them.

But enough about the bullpen ...

Summary

I continue to be struck, if not slightly haunted, by how easily the postseason could have been different. If the Cubs bring in left-handed reliever Sean Marshall to face James Loney in the fifth inning of Game 1 ... if you take away just one of their errors in Game 2 ... if Martin is out by a hair instead of safe in the first inning of Game 3 ... that's how easily the Dodgers could have been sweptees instead of sweptors. (For another example, consider what might have happened had the Angels made one fewer mistake in any of their Boston games.) The Dodgers truly did dominate the Cubs and I don't think what I'm saying takes anything away from that, but you don't have to work hard to play a game of "what if" and come up with an opposite result.

The Phillies and Dodgers each have huge weapons. There is easily a scenario in which all four games are close, the teams are practically even - and yet one team sweeps all four. That's how it went in Los Angeles in August, with the Dodgers winning four games in a row - two in the bottom of the ninth - by a combined six runs. The Phillies' sweep later in the month came more handily, though one of Philadelphia's wins required runs in the bottom of the ninth and 11th innings.

If you look at the head-to-head results in the regular season, the situation resembles that of the Dodgers' subtle advantage against the Cubs - when Los Angeles lost, it lost close games; when it won, it won more easily. In other words, Philadelphia was the better regular-season team. Combine that with their home-field advantage in the NLCS, and they deserve favorite status.

But two counterpoints remain in the Dodgers' favor. First, the return of Furcal. Second, the possibility that the Dodgers can pitch much better than the 5.48 ERA they allowed against the Phillies during the regular season.

The Dodgers have room for improvement against Philadelphia. Will they improve? And will that improvement be more than any improvement the Phillies might have? We'll have to play the games to find out.

As for Game 1, I do feel the pressure is more on Philadelphia. The cost to the Phillies of losing with Hamels at home is greater than the cost to the Dodgers of losing to Hamels on the road. No doubt the Dodgers want to get a victory at the first opportunity, but they know that if they come home with a split, they'll be thrilled, and the Phillies will be worried.

The eyes of baseball will be on the Dodgers and Phillies starting Thursday, and the hearts of the teams' fans will be in their throats. For the Phillies, the real pressure starts immediately; for the Dodgers, it doesn't come until Friday at the earliest. But when it comes ... watch out.