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About Jon
Thank You For Not ...

1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
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11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with

Quake Quake Quake, Quake Quake Quake, Quake Your Booty
2008-11-12 22:44
by Jon Weisman
Note: The Dodger Thoughts blog has moved to the Los Angeles Times.

Thursday is a major earthquake preparedness day in Southern California: The Great Southern California Shakeout. Here's a video to get you alarmed/psyched for it:

Consider this yet another wakeup call for you and me. I've got my share of earthquake supplies, but you know, I don't go the whole nine yards. Don't keep anything in the trunk of my car, for example - it's all in the house, where it isn't guaranteed to help. And I don't have no 15 gallons of water on call (three gallons for each member of the family). It's just one of those things where a guy like me needs to suck it up and understand that to do it right, you got to do it all right.

Comments (189)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2008-11-12 22:55:20
1.   Tripon
I can't help but feel this is like one of those Atomic Bomb drills they had in the 50's.

UCI is participating in this, but I have a class at 10AM, so I might as well duck and cover to freak everyone else out.

2008-11-12 22:58:08
2.   Marty
I just make sure I always have a few hundred in cash close by. If the really big one hits, it's going to be a cash society for awhile. Of course, I could be robbed between now and then, so there's that.
2008-11-12 23:01:30
3.   bhsportsguy
2 Went to the dumpling place over the weekend, had a great lunch for 6 people and it came out to $7 per person.
2008-11-12 23:11:58
4.   Bob Timmermann
One night when my toilet was backed up, I read the FEMA directions on making a temporary toilet.

It's not something you want to have to do. But on the other hand, it inspires me to keep a large supply of cat litter around.

2008-11-12 23:22:25
5.   Eric Stephen
Never has a post been more appropriate than this to post this classic. This is for Brock:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1LUT35wmlb8 (skip to the 8:50 mark)

2008-11-12 23:26:48
6.   Louis in SF
From the other post..If we lose out on Manny, Chicago might be interested in trading Dye for JP...I would do that in a heart beat.....Since it seems to be a slam dunk that we are losing Lowe, is it definite that the Dodgers will offer Lowe arbitration? I haven't seen anything to that effect yet.
2008-11-12 23:29:57
7.   Eric Stephen
6
The Dodgers will for sure offer arbitration to Lowe. I'd bet anything on it.

I'd bet the same amount Chicago would not trade us Dye for Pierre.

2008-11-12 23:41:34
8.   trainwreck
5
Wow, Dabney Coleman was lead guest level back in the day.
2008-11-12 23:45:22
9.   Eric Stephen
I just read Joe Posnanski's homage to Herb Score (http://tinyurl.com/5vpupv), and I thought this note was interesting:

In Score's first two seasons (1955-1956), "he was the only starter in baseball history to have struck out more than a batter per inning over a season (and he had done it twice)."

To quote Johnny Carson, "I did not know that."

2008-11-12 23:47:46
10.   Eric Stephen
8
That entire clip is 10 minutes of nostalgia. A commercial for Hunter, all the classic LA reporters (Jess Marlow!), Kelly Lange's perm, and capped off by perpetual 12-year old Christopher Nance and Kent Shockneck dealing with an earthquake on live TV.
2008-11-12 23:48:42
11.   trainwreck
I remember my uncle watched Hunter, Jake and the Fat Man, and the Commish.
2008-11-12 23:52:59
12.   bhsportsguy
Key Post Season Dates

11/15/08 - 12:00 a.m. EST - All teams are able to negotiate with all free agents.

11/20/08 - Teams must file their reserve lists for major and minor league rosters.

12/01/08 - Last day for teams to offer arbitration to any free agent in order to be eligible for compensation. (Note that if a free agent is signed on or prior to this day, the former team is automatically awarded any eligible compensation)

12/07/08 - Last day for a player who declared free agency to accept an arbitration offer from former team.

12/08 - 12/11/08 - Winter Meetings, Las Vegas

12/11/08 - Rule 5 draft.

12/12/08 - Last day to tender contracts for 2009.

2008-11-12 23:53:19
13.   dzzrtRatt
Got LAT'd on the last thread after spending way too much time writing this:

Okay, I read Canuck Dodgers' post on the prior thread regarding Manny and C.C. (which was one of my favorite cartoon shows from my childhood by the way). I'm partly persuaded, particularly on the greater need for Sabathia, but on behalf of those who got a real charge from having a charismatic ultra-masher on the Dodgers for a couple months, I want to pose a question:

Why can't we sign Manny for, say, four or five years and then, after two or three years, trade him to an AL team to finish out his contract? Why can't that be the de facto plan?

Manny's fielding isn't so awful now that we should think he couldn't handle the field in 2009-10, especially if Pierre sticks around for late-inning work. If, after a couple of years, it's obvious he shouldn't be in left field but is still a great hitter -- a reasonable forecast -- the AL will still be interested in him. Trade him then. There would be takers, if he can still hit. Chances are, Manny would prefer to move, too, if he can't play the field, so a no-trade provision won't be a serious obstacle. I could see this happening in mid-2011 and I could see some good prospects coming back.

If that's not a reasonable forecast, i.e. if the more likely forecast is his hitting will decline along with his fielding, then that supposition is probably shared by all 30 teams. And, therefore, he won't get a 6-year offer from anyone.

The Dodgers' offer is neither insulting nor a PR stunt. It is probably a near-accurate assessment of Manny's value, and not very far from what he'll sign for. Manny is not more valuable to an AL team, just because he has DH written all over him. He is merely less valuable than a younger player or more adept fielder would be. Just because Scott Boras thinks he "deserves" a six-year deal doesn't mean he'll get one.

But if the consensus is that Manny does deserve a six-year-deal, there is no reason an NL team wouldn't be as wise as an AL team to give it to him, because he can always be traded to the AL when the time comes.

2008-11-12 23:54:30
14.   Eric Stephen
Her Score has the 3rd best ERA+ in baseball history through age 24 (when Score was hit in the eye by a line drive).

http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/ECgG

2008-11-12 23:56:35
15.   Eric Stephen
Herb
2008-11-12 23:56:36
16.   bhsportsguy
13 What AL team is going to pay $20M a year for a 40+ year old DH even if it is only for a year or two?
2008-11-13 00:20:11
17.   regfairfield
1 Hey, the rare fellow Anteater that's willing to actually admit where he goes.

This earthquake thing seems like a very good reason to sleep in. I've already accepted death in lots of other situations, why should a 9+ quake be any different.

2008-11-13 00:23:06
18.   trainwreck
17
Here, here. If it happens, it happens.

I can always go into looting.

2008-11-13 00:37:24
19.   Tripon
17 I will also admit my extreme annoyance with UCI and the surrounding area. Mostly, parking and the Irvine Company monopoly on housing units, while simultaneously creating an artificial dearth of supply of parking spaces.

That and their unholy alliance with Southside Towing.

2008-11-13 00:37:25
20.   dzzrtRatt
16 Well, Boras is banking on that happening, via a contract he can get for Manny now. So that was my point. If an AL GM can't imagine trading for a $20m/year Manny in three years, why would he sign up to pay him that then, now?

Manny's getting a three-year deal, four at the outside. From somebody. If that's the limit, the Dodgers are in the hunt.

2008-11-13 00:50:24
21.   trainwreck
I loved Irvine when I used to visit. There was a point in my senior year where one of my roommates and I went to Irvine every week.

Got tired of SB.

2008-11-13 05:25:46
22.   Marty
3 Yep, its a great place. With six people you must have had to wait for the big table in the corner. Hope you had the shrimp and pumpkin dumplings.

I went to Sea Harbor for dimsum Sunday. I was eating ox belly when I lost a temporary crown. Luckily I was able to pop it right back on.

2008-11-13 06:29:13
23.   OhioBlues12
7 - No they will not trade us Dye for Pierre straight up, but no one will trade us for Pierre straight up. The Sox have already said that they need to get more athletic in CF and they need to move either Swisher, Konerko, or Dye to do it. I could see them being interested in Pierre and prospects for Dye.
2008-11-13 07:14:22
24.   dianagramr
Badger badger badger ....
2008-11-13 07:14:42
25.   dianagramr
Mushroom mushroom ...
2008-11-13 07:15:14
26.   dianagramr
Quake! ... a quake! ...
2008-11-13 07:24:24
27.   Rob M
20 Getting the last 2 years of the Manny deal at $20 per is not the same as getting all 5 years at the same annual price. You have to assume some ammortization effect.
2008-11-13 08:00:52
28.   CajunDodger
11
I used to have a hard time watching The Shield because I kept picturing Chiklis as the Commish...

23
As bad as Pierre is, Colletti will want to ensure that Jones can actually play before he lets Pierre go. I do not see him going into next season with a Jones/Ethier/Kemp outfield with only Young and/or Repko as injury/suckitude backup. I just can't see him using prospects and money to get rid of Pierre even if he gets Dye in return.

No, I think we are stuck with the Pierre/Jones duo for another year...

2008-11-13 08:06:17
29.   D4P
I think we are stuck with the Pierre/Jones duo for another year

Especially if we don't sign Manny.

If we do sign Manny, it's hard to imagine keeping all of Manny/Pierre/Jones/Kemp/Ethier.

2008-11-13 08:24:25
30.   goofus
How about 4 years, $80 to $85 million, front loaded (25-25-20-15), with a two year opt out? If he's still good, we have him at a good price or he opts out for more money. If he sucks after 2, it still might be possible to trade him at those dollar levels or maybe we have to eat it.
2008-11-13 08:42:00
31.   El Lay Dave
Lord Baden-Powell had it right when he told the Boy Scouts, "Be prepared." Having lived through a few earthquakes, including very close to the 1994 Northridge epicenter, and fast evacuation due to fire recently, let me tell you that there is little that could be considered over-preparedness. Unfortunately, I am not pre-disposed to good organization. I wonder how much water I have on hand at this moment....
2008-11-13 08:54:07
32.   El Lay Dave
27 Exactly. An AL GM that signs Manny now is betting on getting the great Manny in the front end of the deal and hopes there enough medicore Manny to DH reasonably at the end of it, but by then at least he got the great Manny years. That seems significantly less risky than an NL GM planning to trade Manny later, even with the contract suggested in 30 . It's never all that easy to move a contract that big.
2008-11-13 09:11:30
33.   Jon Weisman
Let's Ram It:

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/sports_blog/2008/11/rams.html

2008-11-13 09:14:23
34.   MC Safety
My earthquake kit consists of about 3 and a half vitamin waters, an ipod and and like 20 cans of corn and green beans. That's definitely not cutting it.
2008-11-13 09:15:27
35.   fanerman
I should make an earthquake kit... Okay, next grocery trip, I'll start stocking up.
2008-11-13 09:17:02
36.   MC Safety
33 Wow. That's hilarious.
2008-11-13 09:17:32
37.   old dodger fan
34 Add a non-electric can opener to your kit otherwise you really won't be cutting it.
2008-11-13 09:18:39
38.   fanerman
It'd be pretty crazy if at exactly 10:00 when there was the shakeout drill, an actual earthquake started...
2008-11-13 09:19:07
39.   underdog
I just noticed the huge jug of water I have in the garage has a hole in the top and now the water's probably all nasty and there are dead ants who have committed suicide in it as well. Time to get a new one. Thanks for the reminder to check!

--

I have a bad feeling the Yankees' offer to CC is going to be, to channel the Godfather, one he can't refuse.

If the Dodgers still need to bring in another starter, does anyone think it would be a bad idea to pursue Randy Wolf again? When healthy he's pretty solid, and wants to return to the West Coast pretty strongly. He's not a #1 of course, more like a solid 3 or 4. Just sayin'... if they lose out on CC, and end up putting money towards Manny.

2008-11-13 09:20:05
40.   fanerman
So will Dodger Thoughts all participate in the drill? I know I am.
2008-11-13 09:20:22
41.   Kevin Lewis
I have no kit prepared, and now I feel like I need to go to Costco this weekend. I could stock up on 20 cans of chili
2008-11-13 09:21:00
42.   Kevin Lewis
40

I am the guy in charge of announcing the earthquake drill on the floor I work.

2008-11-13 09:21:03
43.   underdog
Wow, that Rams video... I'm speechless.

That makes Cirque du Soleil look like a NASCAR rally.

Camera's over here, Jackie!

2008-11-13 09:24:53
44.   Eric Stephen
33
I'm sure the intentions were good, but Wow! The 1980s were simply awesome.
2008-11-13 09:25:06
45.   delias man
Rome is saying Boras quoted to say "On behalf of Manny Ramirez, Friday we will begin accepting serious contract offers."

I do not know why that upsets me, I do not even want Manny back. But I am hot right now.

2008-11-13 09:26:52
46.   wronghanded
It looks like the Yanks are prepared to start the CC bidding a 6/$150 mil. Should we essentially just match what the the Yanks are offering him knowing his preference for the west coast and NL?
2008-11-13 09:27:24
47.   cargill06
38 I think you have a better chance of winning the Mega-Ball 3 times than an earthquake happening within 5 minutes of each side of 10 AM (9:55 to 10:05 AM)
2008-11-13 09:32:10
48.   D4P
On behalf of Manny Ramirez, Friday we will begin accepting serious contract offers

Beyond all the obvious problems with this comment, it doesn't even really make sense. There are really only two responses to a contract offer: sign, or not sign.

The notion that some contract offers would be "accepted" but not ultimately signed doesn't compute.

2008-11-13 09:32:41
49.   cargill06
47 I retract my statement, if you assume there is one 4.0 earthquake or larger on average every 5 years, the chance of one occuring in that 10 minute span is roughly 263,000-1.
2008-11-13 09:33:12
50.   kinbote
45 With the way Arte Moreno's talking, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Angels land Manny. He's probably a fallback option in case Teixeira signs elsewhere (which he likely will), but I could see something coming together fairly quickly there.
Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2008-11-13 09:34:34
51.   fanerman
49 I like those odds! Err... yeah, not really.
2008-11-13 09:34:47
52.   blue22
49 - Never tell me the odds!
2008-11-13 09:36:09
53.   fanerman
52 Haha, I was reading 49 in a C3PO voice, too.
2008-11-13 09:39:18
54.   blue22
Shut him up or shut him down!

Yeah, I could do this all day.

2008-11-13 09:41:25
55.   Kevin Lewis
"Runnin the ball is like making romance"

http://www.metacafe.com/watch/69344/super_bowl_shuffle/

2008-11-13 09:45:43
56.   D4P
Actually cargill has been known to make mistakes... from time to time... Oh dear...
2008-11-13 09:54:28
57.   Eric Stephen
I have no earthquake kit prepared either. Maybe I'll put one together this weekend. I like Kevin's chili idea.
2008-11-13 09:59:39
58.   fanerman
I dropped, ducked, and covered. I also found a push pin on the floor. Woohoo.
2008-11-13 10:01:07
59.   Jon Weisman
Um, earthquake?!
2008-11-13 10:01:22
60.   regfairfield
The earthquake hasn't hit yet.

Oh, there it is.

2008-11-13 10:07:35
61.   arborial
everybody okay?
2008-11-13 10:11:39
62.   arborial
no ones hurt are they?
2008-11-13 10:13:34
63.   Kevin Lewis
Everyone is okay at my office
2008-11-13 10:13:54
64.   Jon Weisman
62 - Are we speaking in reality or in simulation?
2008-11-13 10:14:05
65.   fanerman
I think everybody is okay where I am. I'm checking the building for damage. Fires, gas leaks, electrical wiring, broken appliances, etc.
2008-11-13 10:14:28
66.   regfairfield
They had us ducking and covering for four minutes here. If there's a four minute Earthquake, I don't think the tables gonna solve my problems.
2008-11-13 10:15:52
67.   MC Safety
Was there an earthquake?

I didn't feel one in Long Beach.

2008-11-13 10:18:56
68.   bhsportsguy
New Dodger Thoughts Rule 7.8

No simulations of simulated earthquakes on the thread.

2008-11-13 10:23:12
69.   jasonungar07
"On behalf of Jason Ungar, we will, for the first time, begin posting serious posts and commentary on Friday."
2008-11-13 10:24:56
70.   Jim Hitchcock
34 Well, at least they aren't lima beans...
2008-11-13 10:26:53
71.   Humma Kavula
I have gone back and caught up with Canuck's assessment of the Dodger situation two threads back.

Canuck knows more about baseball that I know about anything (or everything), so it's with no small amount of trepidation and respect that I approach this comment.

I am not against going after Sabathia. As others have pointed out, that is a deal that is extremely likely to work out. He is a great pitcher, and even though he'll be expensive, I don't expect that he'll be an albatross.

But that leaves two questions.

(1) What if the Dodgers can't get Sabathia? There is only one of him.
(2) Why can't we look at the lineup?

The Dodgers surely will sign a free agent pitcher this offseason. If that's Sabathia, great. But if the Yankees get him, what then? If the Dodgers sign, say, Paul Byrd, do they just accept their fate or do they look elsewhere?

The answer to that is that the Dodgers will have to improve the lineup. But where? And how? After all, Canuck argued that the Dodgers don't have a fit for an outfielder.... he said:

1. Jones/Pierre can't be traded because nobody wants them. Undoubtedly true.
2. The Dodgers won't DFA them. Also true.
3. It would be awkward to have them both sitting on the bench. Well, that's true, but it's not really an argument that the Dodgers shouldn't get somebody to replace them. That is a prediction that the Dodgers WON'T get somebody to replace them, because it would be embarrassing, which isn't the same thing.

The Dodgers absolutely do have a hole in the outfield. Just because there are two expensive warm bodies that they can play there does not make the hole go away.

Assuming that the Dodgers can only afford one very very expensive contract this offseason, I'm on board with Canuck. Get Sabathia. But if:
(1) They don't get him, or
(2) That assumption is wrong and the Dodgers can afford two very very expensive contracts,

THEN, I think, it would not be foolish to look at improving the outfield. Ned might be embarrassed to have Pierre and Jones riding the bench, but he'll be more embarrassed by having them play every day.

2008-11-13 10:27:35
72.   Eric Stephen
68 ,69
Very good.
2008-11-13 10:27:46
73.   arborial
64 simulation
2008-11-13 10:39:39
74.   bigcpa
If Ned brings in 2 starting pitchers on multi-year deals than McDonald will be 26 before he gets a crack at the rotation. I knew there was no way Kershaw and McDonald would both make the opening rotation. Right out of Colletti's Big Market Manifesto:

If we have some doubt, we like to have a veteran in that position--especially in a big market--until we are more certain that the young player is ready. If you provide a young player with the position prematurely and the speed of the game and the pressures of the big leagues exceed where that player is at, at that point in his career, then we have done an injustice to the team and to the young player. And finding out that we've overestimated a young player 50 games into the season is a very difficult point of the season to make an adjustment.

2008-11-13 10:43:41
75.   Daniel Zappala
Do you write "an historic" or "a historic"? A always thought "an historic" was correct, but this article:

http://www.theslot.com/a-an.html

convinces me that we only use "an" before a word starting with "h" if the "h" is silent.

2008-11-13 10:44:21
76.   regfairfield
McDonald would get his shot when Kershaw's shoulder falls off because we accelerated his work load way too fast.
2008-11-13 10:44:45
77.   Jon Weisman
74 - First of all, bringing in two free-agent pitchers is no lock. Second of all, pitchers get hurt anyway.

But certainly, my expectation is that McDonald will follow the typical Billingsley/Kershaw minors-to-bullpen-to-rotation route.

2008-11-13 10:45:11
78.   D4P
If you provide a young player with the position prematurely and the speed of the game and the pressures of the big leagues exceed where that player is at, at that point in his career, then we have done an injustice to the team and to the young player. And finding out that we've overestimated a young player 50 games into the season is a very difficult point of the season to make an adjustment

Whereas, overpaying Tomkos and Loaizas and Hendricksons and Baezes and Pierres and Joneses does no injustice to the team, and makes it easy to adjust 50 games into the season.

2008-11-13 10:46:45
79.   regfairfield
78 It's easier to adjust when your backup plan is McDonald instead of "uhhhhhh...is Rich Helling still pitching?"
2008-11-13 10:57:12
80.   cargill06
Am I off the hook now since no actual earthquake occured?
2008-11-13 10:59:02
81.   cargill06
79 Is Rich, Rick's brother? He's probably a better pitcher anyway.
2008-11-13 11:02:31
82.   regfairfield
Funny thing is that I wrote that as Rick then said "nah, dude's name was Rich Helling".
2008-11-13 11:07:59
83.   kinbote
71 The argument in favor of letting Jones and Pierre share time in CF next year is really an argument against letting Colletti throw any more money toward a solution that just keeps getting farther and farther away. If we're going to be investing our money, it should actually be in the future we're always talking about. Sabathia would be a forward-looking deal, but he's no sure thing. If Martin doesn't want a deal, give one to Ethier. Let's start locking up our "core" instead of buying expensive band-aids to cover up Ned's botched surgeries.
2008-11-13 11:08:41
84.   cargill06
Just curious, what FA's have the Yankee's labeled as a must have in the past and not gotten?
2008-11-13 11:23:22
85.   mwhite06
84 Beltran?
2008-11-13 11:26:18
86.   underdog
I still think Pierre is tradeable actually, just a matter of finding the right sucker, er, fit. Jones... not so much. But I can see teams wanting Pierre. I think the Dodgers are understandably wanting to see how the Manny situation plays out before they do that, though, of course. Then the dominoes will start to fall, or not, depending on how that goes. They need to see what works out with Manny, then what kind of market there is for Pierre, and then what kind of promise or lack thereof that Jones v.09 holds.

I still don't see the Dodgers going into next season with both Pierre and Jones, regardless.

2008-11-13 11:26:22
87.   bigcpa
84 Dice-K is their most recent runner-up finish but that's not a good case. Prior to that I found this little ditty:

The general consensus in baseball is that Steinbrenner will do whatever it takes to get Beltran, and there's certainly no doubt that, in the end, the Yankees will be able to outbid the Astros. - 12/25/04

2008-11-13 11:29:05
88.   bigcpa
And a year earlier:

The New York Daily News reports that the Yankees now consider Guerrero their No. 1 right field priority over Sheffield.

2008-11-13 11:30:37
89.   Eric Stephen
83
Let's start locking up our "core" instead of buying expensive band-aids to cover up Ned's botched surgeries

I agree, to a point. I would certainly prefer to sign Martin, Billingsley, Ethier, Kemp, Broxton (before he starts accumulating saves to increase his value), etc to long-term deals, but of course it takes two to tango.

I don't think it's an either/or choice here. All of the young guys are under club control through at least 2012, so they will be here for the foreseeable future regardless of whether or not they are signed.

I'm guessing the club has factored in raises through arbitration for budgetary purposes at least for the next few years.

Right now, the 2009-ready starting pitchers are:

Billingsley
Kuroda
Kershaw
McDonald
Stults

We literally have to sign at least one starting pitcher regardless of any of the young ones are signed to long-term deals. Why not make it CC?

2008-11-13 11:31:23
90.   D4P
I still think Pierre is tradeable actually, just a matter of finding the right sucker, er, fit. Jones... not so much

Which is a just as well. Might as well get rid of Pierre (and his three more years! contract) and suffer through just one more year of the FTOG, than vice versa.

2008-11-13 11:38:36
91.   underdog
90 I agree completely.
There's still the (remote) possibility Jones could improve (couldn't be worse) to the point of usefulness and even provide some power.

--

Okay, why do people decide to start renovating their home and chainsawing things on the day I'm working from home? Sigh. Time to head to the office after all.

2008-11-13 11:41:32
92.   cargill06
90 FTOG, fat tub of goo? I've said before Jones 95 OPS+ - 45 pounds = good major league CF.
2008-11-13 11:41:32
93.   Eric Stephen
The Marlins traded their 4th arbitration-eligible player today by dealing closer Kevin Gregg to the Cubs, for 22-year old Jose Ceda.
2008-11-13 11:43:33
94.   superbas
first off, i would love it if we could sign manny and/or cc...but am i crazy for thinking if we can do neither to run andruw back out there and try to sign sheets on the cheap side? i cannot believe jones' career is over in his early 30's and i can live with 25 starts of sheets a year. is that being too optimistic? we'd then have plenty of money left for the infield.
2008-11-13 11:44:29
95.   underdog
Ceda's a pretty decent return.

42 Ks and 14 walks in 30 innings in the Southern League ain't too shabby. The Cubs got him when they dumped Todd Walker on the Padres.

2008-11-13 11:44:57
96.   Jacob Burch
77 I'm not sure if Kershaw should be thrown into that route.

I'm going into the ToyCannon think tank and resolving that we're getting neither CC nor Manny, and just hope we don't get another sub-average albatross in an AJ Burnett or some such.

2008-11-13 11:45:04
97.   invisibleman
Bill James projects 300 ABs for Andruw to the tune of .233/.328/.445/.774 and 16 HR.

Wouldn't that be nice!

2008-11-13 11:49:09
98.   Tripon
Los Angeles (E! Online) – Multiple reliable sources have just confirmed that NBC has given the ax today to My Own Worst Enemy (starring Christian Slater) and Lipstick Jungle (starring Brooke Shields, Kim Raver and Lindsay Price).

http://news.yahoo.com/s/eonline/20081113/en_top_eo/68582;_ylt=AtDdkGy8YWoyiDGCPLQR0G6s0NUE

2008-11-13 11:49:40
99.   regfairfield
Contract the Marlins.
2008-11-13 11:50:10
100.   Dane Bramage
Just a quick reminder for those setting up emergency quake supplies to PLEASE remember to include your pets in the water/food allotment!
Show/Hide Comments 101-150
2008-11-13 11:50:39
101.   Kevin Lewis
94

I would be okay with that scenario, but I am a Sheets fan.

2008-11-13 11:52:22
102.   Harold M Johnson
I like the Sheets idea. Yes, it's a risk, but I think it's a good one (famous last words, I know). If Ned thinks it's a good idea though, then I'm against it!
2008-11-13 11:52:44
103.   OhioBlues12
94 - I can see Jones having several more productive seasons where he hits more than 20 HRs, I just think it will be extremely difficult for him to have one for us next season.
2008-11-13 11:54:55
104.   JoeyP
99- I agree.

Whats with the Marlins? I thought they got approval for a new stadium, and they are still selling off everyone. Not that dumping Gregg is a bad move--> he'd likely get more than he deserved in arbitration.

2008-11-13 11:56:32
105.   JoeyP
Even Moneyball didnt have a "Selling the arbitration eligibles" chapter.
2008-11-13 11:57:11
106.   Eric Stephen
Honestly, if the starting pitcher we sign isn't CC, Sheets, or Lowe, I will be incredibly depressed.
2008-11-13 11:57:44
107.   regfairfield
105 That seems to be the plan in Moneyball 2.0 though.

I agree that selling high on Kevin Gregg is probably a good idea. But it's pretty obvious that they aren't even willing to try and contend.

2008-11-13 11:59:06
108.   cargill06
106 I'd be happy with Burnett.
2008-11-13 11:59:43
109.   ssjames
104 I actually think that the Marlins are being extremely shrewd in their moves. They have consistently gotten good returns on their players who are coming into arbitration, but who are not in their long term plans are probably overvalued. Between Gregg, Olsen (with his peripherals deteriorating rapidly), Jacobs (a horrible defender with no OBP) and Willingham who is old and looking to fall off a cliff. The return they have gotten is outstanding and I like the Ceda/Gregg move most of all. Don't forget they locked up Hanley last offseason. It would not surprise me to see them heading towards the World Series in 2011 or so.
2008-11-13 11:59:59
110.   D4P
106
Jamie Moyer!
2008-11-13 12:00:05
111.   Eric Stephen
104
There have been some legal issues requiring the financing. A local auto dealer has filed several motions, and one count remains in a lawsuit. Some details here:

http://tinyurl.com/6nfccf

2008-11-13 12:00:58
112.   Eric Stephen
108
Burnett is nothing special. If we wanted Burnett, we should have picked up Penny's option rather than spend double the annual salary for many years.
2008-11-13 12:03:50
113.   regfairfield
109 I agree that there's nothing wrong with selling those guys inherently, but they've gotten absolutely nothing of value for those guys.
2008-11-13 12:05:16
114.   mwhite06
I have a hard time crucifying the Marlins. Marlins are an expansion franchise in 1993 and win a World Series in 1997. After the 1997 World Series, they sell off all their players and are universally villified for doing so, yet win another World Series in 2003. As such, I'm willing to give the Marlins some latitude and I'm certainly not willing to accuse that organization of being inept.
2008-11-13 12:07:28
115.   KG16
I don't really have an earthquake kit. i remember my mom putting one together after the Northridge quake. three weeks later it was buried deep in the garage and lost for a couple of years.
2008-11-13 12:08:44
116.   regfairfield
114 The only player from the sell off in 97 that helped in 2003 was A.J. Burnett. They horribly botched that whole thing.
2008-11-13 12:09:33
117.   superbas
108 sheets is a bulldog and a true ace when healthy, whereas dlowe and burnett are not. i like dlowe but imo he folded too easily in many situations and always had a bad stretch every year.

p.s. i was kinda sad when the a's gave away harden to chi. why didn't we make more of a play for him knowing penny was hurt? meh.

2008-11-13 12:10:39
118.   Daniel Zappala
As an Angels fan, I'm amazed to see Gregg, who was pretty much a cast-off due to a propensity to blow up, become the Marlins closer and now traded to the Cubs as a presumably important part of their bullpen next year.
2008-11-13 12:13:05
119.   ToyCannon
99
You are kidding. As currently construed the Marlins have a better team then the Dodgers. The pitching staff which won't be dealt is tough from 1 thru 5. Nolasco and Josh Johnson make up the best 1/2 punch in the NL East. With Volstad, Sanchez, and Miller it rounds out nicely. Sanchez and Miller while lacking in 2008 still have enough stuff be quality number 2 or 3 in the rotation.

You counted them out last year when they dealt Miggy and I'd say their season was a huge success. That team is loaded with pitching and with Hanley they have a real super star they can ride.

Morrison, Uggla, Hanley, Hermida, Maybin, Ross is a decent enough core to go with the best pitching the NL is going to see in 2009.

2008-11-13 12:13:41
120.   kinbote
106 117 Might Sheets accept a one or two-year offer in order to rebuild his value? If so, I'd take that gamble. I agree we have to add one starter to make up for losing Lowe.
2008-11-13 12:14:03
121.   KG16
107 - this is only tangentially related to Moneyball 2.0 thoughts, but i was wondering...

doesn't it make more sense for a "small market" team (and in my opinion, if Oakland is a small market team, than so are the Angels) to try and build a perennial winner/competitor that would be able to expand the fan base outside of the local metro area? There's plenty of merchandise to be sold in other towns and around the world. And I have to believe that teams make a lot more money selling shirts and hats than they do selling tickets.

There has to be a formula beyond trading guys for prospects or getting extra draft picks when players leave, that would allow a team like, say, the Kansas City Royals to have a profit margin large enough to afford larger contracts.

2008-11-13 12:14:56
122.   Eric Stephen
116
Don't forget Derrek Lee (from the Kevin Brown trade).
2008-11-13 12:15:43
123.   Humma Kavula
117 In what way is Lowe not a "true ace?" He's not one of the four or five best pitchers in the game, but he's certainly one of the top 20. Most teams do not have a pitcher as good as Lowe was last year.

I do not deny Sheets's talent, but I can't get on the Sheets bandwagon for the injury concerns. It's fine to make a calculated risk like the Dodgers have done oh so many times in the past, but at a certain point you have to look at the DL payroll and wonder if you wouldn't be better off spending less money on a lesser talent that will almost assuredly be healthy.

2008-11-13 12:16:25
124.   cargill06
112 He's a groundball/strikeout pitcher with good periphals. Plus the transition to the NL West would be very kind to him.
2008-11-13 12:18:29
125.   Daniel Zappala
119 I was surprised to realize that the Marlins were 84-77 last year.
2008-11-13 12:20:50
126.   cargill06
119 If the Dodgers sign one of CC, Sheets, Burnett our rotation is better.
2008-11-13 12:20:54
127.   Humma Kavula
123 What I'm saying is that I'm on the Sabathia bandwagon until Sabathia is no longer available. Then I am on the see-what-you-can-do-to-get-a-star-position-player-even-if-it-means-andruw-and-juan-ride-the-bench-and-embarrass-ned bandwagon.

It is a small bandwagon. We have to write the name of our bandwagon in very, very tiny letters. and it is not so much a bandwagon as it is a OneGuyPlayingTheHarmonicaWagon.

2008-11-13 12:21:50
128.   ToyCannon
109
Wouldn't surprise me to see an all Florida World Series within 2 years.
2008-11-13 12:21:54
129.   cargill06
112 Really, when healthy how is AJ Burnett any different than Chad Billingsley?
2008-11-13 12:26:03
130.   D4P
127
Nothing wrong with your plan. Only practical concern is whether Management will pay Juones $27 million to sit on the bench.
2008-11-13 12:27:15
131.   ToyCannon
126
So would the Giants, I'm only talking about the current setup. How many teams already have a 5 man rotation ready to go without putting a prospect into the rotation?
2008-11-13 12:28:59
132.   Eric Stephen
129
Burnett, in the 7 seasons he has with at least 100 innings, has never had an ERA+ higher than 122, and that was 6 years ago.

Chad Billingsley's ERA+ the last 3 years:

2006: 118 (in 90 IP)
2007: 138
2008: 135

Billingsley runs circles around AJB.

2008-11-13 12:29:44
133.   ToyCannon
129
When healthy is key part of your argument. You would think AJ might be tired of the AL East and want easier picking in the NL. I like AJ and Sheets but I think Ned would have a hard sell to Frank since they both have health histories and Frank can't be enamored with paying for non - producing free agents.
2008-11-13 12:31:52
134.   Humma Kavula
130 Well that's why we have bandwagons, isn't it? To encourage the Dodgers to do the right thing?

Look, I don't EXPECT the Dodgers to follow my plan. For all the reasons Canuck pointed out, it's likely that they won't. But I still advocate it.

2008-11-13 12:33:32
135.   Eric Stephen
134
I recently bought a harmonica so I'll join your wagon.
2008-11-13 12:33:35
136.   D4P
134
Yes.
2008-11-13 12:35:48
137.   D4P
Might Ned be interested in free-agent outfielder Moises Alou?

1. Career .300 hitter
2. Old
3. Hurt a lot lately
4. Former Giant
5. Likes to pee on stuff

2008-11-13 12:37:02
138.   D4P
Yankees acquire Nick Swisher.
2008-11-13 12:37:22
139.   cargill06
133 Completely agree, I was disagreeing with Eric in the fact that he'd be happy with Sheets but not Burnett.

2008

Burnett
BB/9 IP- 3.5
HR/9 IP- 0.77
K/9 IP- 9.4

Billingsley
BB/9 IP- 3.6
HR/9 IP- .63
K/9 IP - 9.0

Burnett pitching in the NL West is a very safe assumption his K's will go up and his HR's will go down.

2008-11-13 12:37:51
140.   Eric Stephen
138
Link?
2008-11-13 12:38:09
141.   Humma Kavula
137

6. Name anagram: Louse, so aim!

2008-11-13 12:38:58
142.   Jim Hitchcock
137 Be fair. Just on hit glove.
2008-11-13 12:39:52
143.   D4P
140
ESPN.com has it.
2008-11-13 12:40:13
144.   regfairfield
138 There's got to be more to that than Jeff Marquez.
2008-11-13 12:41:09
145.   cargill06
What was Swisher's PrOPS last year?
2008-11-13 12:41:57
146.   Eric Stephen
139
I just think Sheets is better than Burnett. Both have health issues. In the last 3 years, Sheets has only made 72 starts, but Burnett has only made 80.

Burnett seems to me what Dreifort might have become if he was ever relatively healthy.

2008-11-13 12:42:14
147.   blue22
Wow, Swisher cost a LOT more last year to acquire.

Nice work, Kenny.

2008-11-13 12:43:00
148.   Eric Stephen
145
.277/.380/.496
2008-11-13 12:44:04
149.   Daniel Zappala
The only thing I do with bandwagons is circle them when the Indians attack.
2008-11-13 12:44:53
150.   ToyCannon
To bad we have so many outfielders? Would have loved to get Swisher. So does that mean they don't offer Abreu arbitration? They still don't have a CF since they have decided Damon is more suited to LF/DH and Matsui is also a LF/DH. Does Swisher become the 1st baseman? Guess so.
Show/Hide Comments 151-200
2008-11-13 12:47:16
151.   Eric Stephen
A cheap alternative starter is now available in The Unit.

http://tinyurl.com/5nulhj

-------------
"Randy instructed us not to file for free agency until we made every effort to reach an agreement. The Diamondbacks have a budget based on their club's financial situation and obviously viewed Randy's contract in that context. Randy considered every reasonable compromise including offering to take a 50% pay cut, all to remain a Diamondback. However, the economic situation did not lend itself to an agreement."
---------------------

50% of his 2008 salary would have been $5m. A one- or two-year deal wouldn't be too bad for Johnson.

2008-11-13 12:48:02
152.   Eric Stephen
150
The good thing is that it might take the Yankees out of the Manny negotiations, if they were every in it.
2008-11-13 12:49:57
153.   Eric Stephen
It's kind of funny to see someone described as a "center fielder-first baseman." That combo is certainly rare.

Shades of a former Nebraska punter.

2008-11-13 12:50:23
154.   OhioBlues12
Wow! That is a bit of a blow on a couple of levels. This likely means that the Sox will keep Dye, who I would've liked in our OF. More importantly, if this signals that the Yanks are going to put Swisher at 1B then then they would have that much more money to spend on CC since it won't go to Tex.
2008-11-13 12:50:24
155.   underdog
Contract the White Sox!
2008-11-13 12:51:09
156.   Humma Kavula
151 Johnson can certainly start for the team I root for.
2008-11-13 12:52:08
157.   Bob Timmermann
The White Sox loved Swisher so much they were starting DeWayne Wise in his place in the playoffs.
2008-11-13 12:52:55
158.   Eric Stephen
154
But if the Yanks don't go after Tex, he is more likely to re-sign with the Angels, meaning Manny has one less suitor.

I don't think this deal affects the Yankees' pursuit of CC. Their offer will be formidable regardless of other deals.

2008-11-13 12:53:44
159.   Tripon
Heyman says that Wilson Benemit is part of the deal.
2008-11-13 12:54:23
160.   ToyCannon
A one year with Randy might be the best we can do this fall. I might even be happier having Randy for one year then either AJ or Sheets for four years. To bad Kent isn't around they could grumble together. Martin will need to cut back his mound visits when Randy is on the hill.

Now if Sheets will take the same deal we offered Schmidt I'd be very happy. I do expect AJ to get at least a four year deal which is why I don't think we are in the running for him.

CC - No Ned fiction for a year
Sheets - Happy but apprehensive
Randy - simple nod of acceptance

2008-11-13 12:54:26
161.   Daniel Zappala
We already have Swisher on the roster -- his name is Andre Ethier.
2008-11-13 12:54:36
162.   Eric Stephen
156
The Dodgers have never had someone win a 300th game in their uniform. Let's make that happen.

We can also see a 600th HR perhaps in late 2010.

2008-11-13 12:55:02
163.   ToyCannon
159
BOOM BOOM
2008-11-13 12:55:15
164.   trainwreck
Swisher without crazy hair is just not Nick Swisher.

Damn, Yankees!

2008-11-13 12:55:40
165.   ToyCannon
162
I hate watching Giants hit their 600th home run:)
2008-11-13 12:55:46
166.   Tripon
cubs say they're not resigning Wood.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

2008-11-13 12:56:39
167.   OhioBlues12
158 - You're probably right. Randy Johnson should be seriously considered if we are out of the CC race.
2008-11-13 12:57:09
168.   regfairfield
I can see this as a salary dump to make room for Manny or something, but they had to have been able to get someone better than a sinkerballer who can't strike anyone out or keep the ball in the park.
2008-11-13 12:57:39
169.   underdog
I was less worried about the Yankees getting Manny than I was about them and CC, so I'm still worried. I did float the idea of Randy Wolf earlier. As much as I like Sheets when he's healthy, he's a really expensive risk given we already have a really expensive injured pitcher who has given us nothing so far in return, in Schmidt. I wouldn't blame LA if they say "pass" on Sheets.
2008-11-13 12:57:41
170.   Tripon
153 It's kind of funny to see someone described as a "center fielder-first baseman." That combo is certainly rare.

The Dodgers do have one. His name is Andruw Jones. He also coached first base during the season.

2008-11-13 12:57:55
171.   ToyCannon
Thought that might happen after they got Gregg. Another bidder for CC perhaps as they save 10 Mill by letting Wood go.
2008-11-13 12:58:08
172.   Xeifrank
If you keep 15 gallons of water lying around for the next big emergency, do you have to replace that water after X number of months or years? Or is it still safe to drink sitting in one of those plastic water containers?
vr, Xei
2008-11-13 12:59:09
173.   underdog
Hah hah. The Yankees also get Teixeira in that trade with the Sox!

Er, no, Kanekoa Texeira.

2008-11-13 13:00:32
174.   Jon Weisman
172 - You do have to replace it. Best thing to do is actually make use of the water and replace each gallon (or whatever) as you go.
2008-11-13 13:00:34
175.   Tripon
This wouldn't preclude a Texieria signing for the Yankees. They needed a center fielder.
2008-11-13 13:01:06
176.   regfairfield
White Sox also get Betemit.
2008-11-13 13:02:31
177.   Tripon
Wow, the Yankees win that trade easily.
2008-11-13 13:04:02
178.   ToyCannon
Jeff Marquez wasn't even one of the top 10 Yankee prospects according to BaseballHQ which just published their list this week. Actually not even a top 15.
2008-11-13 13:07:10
179.   underdog
Sounds like there may be one more prospect going to the CWS too? (Nunez?) So may be too soon to fully judge that trade. Still, seems like a win for the Yanks.
2008-11-13 13:07:48
180.   Tripon
178 Would it be us like the Dodgers trading TronTron for Albert Pujols?
2008-11-13 13:07:57
181.   Eric Stephen
170
He also coached first base during the season

When was this?

2008-11-13 13:08:09
182.   ToyCannon
174
That is one of the reason I didn't replace my hot water heater with the new instant heater. I used that puppy during the last earth quake.

A propane stove is quite important as you'll want to boil stuff. The best thing to do is stock up on the lousy tasting backpack food which lasts forever. I find my camping equip to be my earthquake stuff.

2008-11-13 13:10:08
183.   underdog
180 Uh, not quite. Pujols is maybe the best hitter in the game, or in the top 2-3 at least. Swisher is in the top, well, 150-200 hitters...
2008-11-13 13:10:20
184.   Tripon
181 Well okay, he coached first base at Triple-A. :)
2008-11-13 13:10:27
185.   Bob Hendley
153 - Yep, pretty rare, but in our own backyard, Erstad.
2008-11-13 13:11:30
186.   Tripon
183 I was exaggerating. Okay, more like using TronTron to pick up Brian Roberts.
2008-11-13 13:13:26
187.   cargill06
Jack Cust seems like the better Siwsher comp.
2008-11-13 13:14:05
188.   Jon Weisman
NPUT
2008-11-13 13:17:55
189.   underdog
186 - That's a bit closer, yah.

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