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It's Not Loney at the Top
2004-09-16 11:02
One rationale lost in the Dodgers' pursuit of first baseman Hee Seop Choi has been the 2004 season of Jacksonville prospect James Loney. Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus today labeled Loney the most disappointing minor league prospect in baseball in 2004. To be sure, this designation partly reflects the high expectations held for Loney - it's not as if Silver is calling Loney the worst prospect in baseball by any stretch. Someone, I believe, even suggested Loney could be this year's National League Rookie of the Year - in a flight of fancy, I assure you. Nevertheless, Silver writes that with an on-base percentage of .312 and a slugging percentage of .327 in Jacksonville yielding a major league equivalent EQA of .185, Loney falls into the "level at which a player's performance has deteriorated enough that it almost certainly reflects a fundamental overestimation of their ability level rather than some sort of unlucky season." One can hope that Loney is a) still suffering from lingering effects of his 2002 wrist injury that will eventually go away (like the Adrian Beltre appendectomy theory) or that b) it is just growing pains for a player still only 20 years old. But you can understand why the Dodgers, who in April 2004 could have expected Loney to replace Shawn Green at first no later than 2006, wanted to have other young options like Choi at their disposal. Update: Silver writes that in 2004, the power of former Dodger farmhand Franklin Gutierrez, who was sent away in the Milton Bradley trade, "all but disappeared, a troubling occurrence considering that his strikeout rate increased."
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