Baseball Toaster: Dodger Thoughts : Rotation Questions Plague Padres, Too

Rotation Questions Plague Padres, Too

2005-03-28 14:05

by Jon Weisman

You might fret over the possibility that the Dodgers will start Ryan Rupe in the season's first week (how am I going to explain that one to my Dad?), but San Diego isn't having a much better go of things. After ill-advisedly pinning their hopes on Darrell May, the Padres have already begun to look elsewhere.

If Monday's acquisition of Tim Redding is any indication, San Diego's search isn't going well. In his career, Redding has allowed 13.6 baserunners per nine innings, and his strikeouts have declined sharply since his 2001 rookie year.

Meanwhile, Rupe's numbers are almost as bad. Though his accomplishments are limited to the minor leagues, Dodger Thoughts is still rooting for Buddy Carlyle to be the Brad Penny placeholder...

Comments

2005-03-28 14:56:27

1. Bob Timmermann

Everybody knows that this is just opening up the door for your 2005 NL West champion Arizona Diamondbacks.

2005-03-28 14:58:46

2. bigcpa

According to KFWB, Joel Guzman will play SS tonight vs. Washington with Loaiza pitching. What's with the 1 week callup?

2005-03-28 15:09:35

3. Jon Weisman

It's just a reward/sneak peek, Big. They planned to do this after they got the 25-man roster settled, which they have as far as position players go.

2005-03-28 15:13:49

4. Tom Meagher

Wow, I just don't get the Anti-Rupe agenda. The ERA's look ugly, but his K and BB rates were consistently average. In fact, his K/BB has been above league average every season of his career. In 2000 and 2001 the HR shot up, but over a pretty small sample. He was excellent for Pawtucket in 2003. His outfield defenses in Tampa Bay were routinely awful- the CF was Winn, and Bubba Trammell, Greg Vaughn, and Matt Stairs all played prominent roles. If he's looking good in camp, he's probably a pretty nice back of the rotation guy.

2005-03-28 15:30:13

5. Jon Weisman

Look, I'm always willing to be convinced - and anytime you like a player, Tom, I take a second look. And certainly, I've always thought Rupe's capable of winning a spot start or three.

Still, I don't know what Rupe's DIPS ERA is, but he's going to out-Lowe Lowe to get his conventional ERA down to something wieldy. His strikeouts and walks are decent, but the guy just seems to get hit hard. In under 500 innings, 81 homers allowed? All this for a guy who turns 30 on Thursday. Just hard for me to get excited.

Overall, Rupe has better career minor league numbers than Carlyle, but 2003-2004 look better for Carlyle to me on the walks and strikeouts front. What happened to Rupe's 2004 season, anyway?

2005-03-28 15:38:28

6. Eric Enders

Two comments, one of which is off-topic:

1) Is there some trick I don't know about that will prevent me from having to re-log in to Baseball Toaster every time I visit?

2) Does anybody know why, exactly, Kelly Wunsch was dumped by the White Sox? Three of his four major league seasons have been excellent, and in addition, he had a good year in AAA last season. Why did the White Sox decide all of a sudden last May that he wasn't a major league pitcher?

2005-03-28 15:40:52

7. Eric Enders

As an aside to the above, note that Wunsch didn't even rate a September callup last year despite a 2.97 ERA in AAA. What gives?

2005-03-28 15:42:13

8. Jon Weisman

Eric - I'll try to get an answer to you about #1.

2005-03-28 15:47:10

9. Jon Weisman

Looks like it's a couple of weeks away, Eric, but it will come.

2005-03-28 16:04:13

10. Suffering Bruin

Today's fact of Choi, SB's favorite player for 2005:

Did you catch Tom's comments? Could be "one of the ten best first basemen" in the game. (erp!)

--------------------------------------------

On topic, I got a buddy in SD, hates the Dodgers. He's actually part of a Padre fan club--bunch of guys get together and rap about baseball. According to him, they are somewhere between panicked and desperate because of the Padre's rotation problems. They all think this is a two-team race: Dodgers and Padres and they all say they like our rotation better than theirs.

For what it's worth...

2005-03-28 16:20:02

11. Jeromy

For what it is worth, the only time I saw Ryan Rupe pitch in person was 5/29/99 when he was pitching for Tampa Bay against the Mariners. He looked really, really good for the first time through the lineup. His fastball was popping the glove and his breaking ball was getting hitters to swing and miss. Then, as M's order turned over, the Mariner's hitters started to figure him out pretty quickly. He ended up giving up 7 runs that game. I have always thought that either he was tipping pitches or he would be better in short bursts from the bullpen.

2005-03-28 16:47:49

12. bigcpa

2-run HR for Guzman!!!!!!!

2005-03-28 16:48:28

13. bigcpa

JD Drew back-to-back shot!

2005-03-28 16:49:19

14. Jon Weisman

Wow - a Guzman HR. Start the hysteria!

That must have been a lot of fun to see.

2005-03-28 16:51:14

15. bigcpa

I think that was his first AB against ML pitching because Izturis started at SS. Can anyone confirm/deny?

2005-03-28 17:14:24

16. Woody

Just got home from FL. I know it's off topic, but Lowe looked great against the Red Sox last week and Erickson looked solid. Gagne limped off to the clubhouse after his first appearance in the Red Sox game, but looked less gimpy against the Cards. Both Drew (who struck out several times with that beautiful swing) and Kent did zippo offensively. On the other hand, Kent made several stellar plays vs. the Cards on Friday and didn't make me cry for Alex Cora. Henri Stanley hit a monster homer which is still traveling somewhere into the everglades, though we'll never see him again. Carlyle looked the best of all the middle-relief pitchers.

2005-03-28 17:32:46

17. bigcpa

OK the HR was Guzman's first AB. Groundout to the pitcher in his 2nd trip.

2005-03-28 18:33:42

18. bigcpa

Well Jon your jungle karma worked- Buddy Carlyle struck out the last 2 batters looking to end it. A Martinez is pumping him for the last bullpen spot.

2005-03-28 20:31:33

19. scareduck

It bears repeating that May had a 7.51 K/9 with Anaheim, and spent the rest of his career at Kauffman, where he gave out home runs with increasing frequency (38 last year). Despite all that, there's reason for San Diego to hope yet:

1) The Padres' spring training home is at 1,000 feet, high enough for elevation effects. The air is also hot and dry, further amplifying the hitters' advantage.

2) Kauffman was a hitter's park; Petco, while the data is still slim, looks to be playing as a fairly extreme pitcher's park.

The Pads aren't panicking just yet, but I will say that at 32, May has a very, very short leash.

Incidentally, my two Padre-fan friends tell me that they saw Andy Ashby poking around the Pads' minor league roster. Ducksnorts says he'll be eligible to join the Pads' 25-man roster on May 1:

http://www.all-baseball.com/ducksnorts/archives/018043.html

2005-03-28 21:00:12

20. molokai

Anyone catch the fact that Guzman started at 1st base before moving to SS later in the game?
I can't get worked up about whoever is going to be our 5th starter. It is not like he's going to be there long. 1 or 2 starts at the start of the season by our 5th starter is not going to amount to a hill of beans during a 162 game season.

2005-03-28 21:13:07

21. Jonathan

bigcpa,
Guzman's homer was in his second AB. He started at first base, batting second, and switched to short in the fifth, I think.

one out, none on in the first
ball, strike, flyball out

two out, izturis on first in the third inning
ball, HR!

leading off the sixth
foul, foul, foul, ball, ground out

bases loaded, two out in the seventh against RHP Gary Majewski
first pitch swinging flyball out.

2005-03-28 21:19:46

22. Eric Enders

I hope Guzman playing first base today is not an indicator of things to come. I really hope they keep him at SS as long as humanly possible -- and if they do decide to switch him, I hope it's to 3B. He seems like too good an athlete to waste away playing first base.

Incidentally, I was in attendance at the only game in which Mike Piazza ever played 1B for the Dodgers... we pasted the Giants 13-1, if memory serves.

2005-03-28 21:31:42

23. Eric Enders

BTW, Jon, thanks for checking into Question #1. I'm looking forward to that day.

2005-03-28 21:43:05

24. Bob Timmermann

My home computer rarely gets turned off. It just sleeps all the time, so I don't have to log in.

It's pretty easy to log in with Firefox at work.

2005-03-28 22:03:34

25. Linkmeister

Bob, are you talking about a computer or a pet?

2005-03-28 22:14:14

26. Im So Blue

I know, I know. Who cares what Harold Reynolds says about the Dodgers -- but he's good for a laugh.

On Baseball Tonight tonight, he said, "I think they really messed up big time in LA...this is a team built on defense, the only starter that's still there is Izturis...yes, Jeff Kent & JD Drew will provide offense, but Lowe & Weaver are sinkerball pitchers, and you have no D...It goes all the way back to last year when they got rid of Mota, Martin and Lo Duca...they don't sign Beltre...it's amazing...they took a team that was close to being a contender all the time and made it a very poor team."

Yep, DePodesta messed up big time when he got rid of Tom Martin.

2005-03-28 22:17:01

27. Bob Timmermann

My computer and I are very close. But so far my computer has not urinated on my carpet.

2005-03-28 22:32:23

28. Jim Hitchcock

What was that old Blue Oyster Cult song...Mozilla?

2005-03-28 22:39:48

29. Eric Enders

"My home computer rarely gets turned off. It just sleeps all the time, so I don't have to log in."

Just to be clear, my "problem" (if it can be called that) has nothing to do with turning the computer off... I have to re-do the login every time I leave Baseball Toaster and then return again, even if it's 10 seconds later.

2005-03-28 22:40:54

30. Eric Enders

"But so far my computer has not urinated on my carpet."

If it ever does, I know a rich guy who'll buy you a new carpet... goes by the name of Lebowski.

2005-03-28 22:44:56

31. Jim Hitchcock

Eric, even if you don't close the browser? If so, you need Firefox or Mozilla. Actually, you need 'em anyway.

2005-03-28 22:56:59

32. Bob Timmermann

Yes, my browser usually doens't close unless I run across some Mac-unfriendly web page.

2005-03-28 23:12:55

33. Eric Enders

Yes, it sometimes happens even when I'm using the same browswer. But sometimes not.

My browser also seems to not like the Paypal cookie that appears on this page.