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About Jon
Thank You For Not ...

1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with

April 27 Open Chat: Center Stage
2005-04-27 16:25
by Jon Weisman
Note: The Dodger Thoughts blog has moved to the Los Angeles Times.

Tonight's Game

* * *

Milton Bradley vs. Carlos Beltran, 2004

 	Bradley	Beltran
Age	26	27
Salary	$1.73M	$9M
OPS	.786	.915
EQA	.274	.306
VORP	25.2	74.5

Milton Bradley vs. Carlos Beltran, 2005

 	Bradley	Beltran
Age	27	28
Salary	$2.5M	$11.5M
OPS	1.020	.796
EQA	.335	.271
VORP	11.7	4.1

Sources: ESPN.com, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball-Reference.com
According to Baseball Prospectus ...
EQA is "a measure of total offensive value per out, with corrections for league offensive level, home park, and team pitching. EQA considers batting as well as baserunning, but not the value of a position player's defense."
VORP is "the number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances. VORP scores do not consider the quality of a player's defense."

* * *

Farewell, Paul Shuey.

Comments (200)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2005-04-27 16:27:43
1.   Marty
The type is showing up very small (like 7 point) since you posted this.
2005-04-27 16:29:23
2.   Jon Weisman
You need to give me more than two minutes to fix these things. Should be fine now.
2005-04-27 16:31:37
3.   Marty
I'm in the IT business, so I guess complaining first thing is rubbing off on me :-)
2005-04-27 16:36:15
4.   Jon Weisman
:)
2005-04-27 17:02:09
5.   KAYVMON
Someone a couple of thread back mentioned the idea of trying to reach an extension with Bradley during this season. Thats seems likea very good idea, but I think more importantly, how the Dodger front office deals with extending or resigning Milton will be an interesting case study. He almost certainly would rather be a Dodger than play elsewhere and he will likely be undervalued as a player considering his bad rep. It seems likely that he will stay with the Dodgers past this season. What will be interesting is whether we pay him market value or less, especially considering the cheap useful options for outfield we have in Werth, Repko, and I guess Grabowski.
2005-04-27 17:02:54
6.   KAYVMON
I hope we dont have to pay him Beltran money by the way.
2005-04-27 17:12:46
7.   Bob Timmermann
I guess the rain will hold off and I'll be in sitting in Section 19 of the Blue on Blankee Night. I hope it's not an Insecurity Blanket Night.
2005-04-27 17:22:02
8.   Jim Hitchcock
Isn't fleece the plural for lice?
2005-04-27 17:22:06
9.   bigcpa
KAYVMON-
It was me screaming for a Bradley extension. And I need $12 from you too. :)

Bradley probably gets $6M in arb next year figuring Beltre got $5M after his abysmal 2003 season. How about 4yr/28M?

2005-04-27 17:27:25
10.   Bob Timmermann
I believe the blankets have been infected with smallpox.
2005-04-27 17:46:04
11.   Jon Weisman
By the way, Big, I know you're touting Derek Thompson with his big strikeout numbers, and I know not to rely too much on ERA ... but Thompson's ERA needs to be noted. Jacksonville is a way different environment from Las Vegas, and a 4.09 ERA isn't very good. In fact, it's the worst of the five starters down there and third-worst on the entire roster.

http://tinyurl.com/9jol7

Opponents are batting .294 against Thompson. If that, and/or his ERA, start to go down, I'd feel better about him.

But his Ks are surely great so far.

2005-04-27 17:58:12
12.   bigcpa
Actually the deeper you dig the better it gets. Notice Thompson hasn't allowed a HR. So 25 hits on 54 balls in play... a ridiculous .463 BABIP. A .300 BABIP would yield 16 hits and a FIP era of 1.25 or so. The only way he's really a 4 ERA guy is if he's giving up line drives all over the yard but somehow keeping them in the yard.
2005-04-27 18:05:10
13.   Jon Weisman
I saw the zero home runs, but the five starters combined have allowed three HR. Have to think that's in part just a ballpark effect that's helping everyone.

But yes, I suspect he's had some bad luck, too.

2005-04-27 18:06:14
14.   bigcpa
Check out the BABIP of the Jacksonville starters...

.463 D Thompson
.340 E Hull
.309 E Stults
.286 J Broxton
.255 C Billingsley

The other 4 starters avg. .299 and the 6 relievers avg. .300. So my FIP numbers in #12 hold up. He's a 1.25 ERA guy with terrible luck so far.

Incidentally I saw Javier Vazquez had a .450 BABIP after 3 starts (12ip, 23h) and traded for him in roto. Next 2 starts, 15ip, 13h, 2er.

2005-04-27 18:15:28
15.   bigcpa
Thompson sounds like quite the DIPS guru himself:

"I'm a ground ball pitcher, and several of those hits could have gone either way because they were just out of our reach," the 24-year-old said. "When the ground balls are finding holes like that, I have to take it on my own shoulders and get punchouts. That's what I tried to do the last couple of innings." 4-25-05

2005-04-27 18:18:50
16.   jasonungar05
Incidentally I saw Javier Vazquez had a .450 BABIP after 3 starts (12ip, 23h) and traded for him in roto. Next 2 starts, 15ip, 13h, 2er.

Wow. I need to use this. I picked up Jake Westbrook for today....

Where is the best place for the eyes to find these stats? Baseball Ref?

2005-04-27 18:22:39
17.   bigcpa
BP updates this page daily:
http://tinyurl.com/bc9yf

Don't kill me but Westbrook's .198 BABIP would have been a red flag.
2005-04-27 18:23:53
18.   bigcpa
Jon-
Is anyone addressing the huge break in the comments section? I think I caused it with that mongo url.
2005-04-27 18:32:16
19.   Ken Arneson
Fixed it.
2005-04-27 18:34:31
20.   Ken Arneson
FYI, Armando Benitez needs surgery and will miss four months.
2005-04-27 18:46:58
21.   Jim Hitchcock
The Giants are doomed, I tell ya...doomed.
2005-04-27 18:59:55
22.   Fearing Blue
Re #17: Looking at that site, I just noticed that DJ Houlton has a BABIP of .500. Yikes!
2005-04-27 19:02:08
23.   Fearing Blue
You know what else is scary. As bad as Erickson has been, his BABIP is only .257, which I guess means he's liable to get worse.
2005-04-27 19:04:47
24.   Odysseus
21

When you are relying on guys who are 32, 40, and 38, these things tend to happen. (Okay, a bit of a stretch on Benitez, but it always surprises me when Giants fans are surprised that Bonds and Alou would be hurt. Banged up players in their late 30s? Imagine that.)

2005-04-27 19:10:31
25.   tjshere
Well, I'd hate to see Weaves keep up his hot and cold pattern all year, but I sure wouldn't mind seeing him extend it through tonight.
2005-04-27 19:11:24
26.   Sam DC
So, is this game eeny, meeny, miney, or moe for Mr. Weaver?
2005-04-27 19:16:27
27.   Jim Hitchcock
What we're saying here is we want him to be consistent in his inconsistency...for tonight.
2005-04-27 19:21:08
28.   tjshere
Smooth first inning for Weaver, but 3 fly balls is not a particularly good sign.
2005-04-27 19:23:27
29.   Jim Hitchcock
Gonna bea good night.
2005-04-27 19:24:36
30.   bokonon42
#10, watch out Ward, or someone is liable to report you to Bill O'Rielly.
2005-04-27 19:35:43
31.   Fearing Blue
Question for everybody. I just joined SABR. Has anyone gone to one of their conventions before? They have one in Toronto in August and I'm considering going.
2005-04-27 19:37:00
32.   Sam DC
Well, at least we got that "fall behind at the outset" thing out of the way, and only one run to boot. Go Blue!

Anyone know if Jon "2-0" Weisman is at the game?

2005-04-27 19:37:52
33.   Fearing Blue
I was going to suggest that maybe Tracy should start Choi tonight, but I changed my mind. I'v seen the Saenz.
2005-04-27 19:41:24
34.   alex 7
Poor Choi, lol, he catches no breaks when he struggles, when he does well, or when he sits.

Good job Saenz.

2005-04-27 19:42:34
35.   alex 7
Maybe Tracy, at best, will stick to a strict RH/LH platoon. So long as he doesn't pinch hit for Choi vs a RH pitcher, all egos and player development will be ok.
2005-04-27 19:46:51
36.   Fearing Blue
I think the Giants are officially done. Any Giants fan has to be crying at the thought of Herges closing out games for them again.
2005-04-27 19:47:09
37.   alex 7
So Weaver has a no hitter going and the game is tied 1-1. The Dodgers leaving runners on base again, 3 after 2 innings. And this has become routine lately.

They've played one weird week of baseball.

2005-04-27 19:56:39
38.   Sam DC
Somewhere, Bob Timmermann is muttering "Quinton McCracken !?!" over and over again.
2005-04-27 20:02:22
39.   alex 7
tell me about it. Dodgers should try to pick up a power pitcher midseason. Comforting watching Penny throw fastballs by light hitters that have no business being part of a scoring inning (i.e. clayton, mcCracken).
2005-04-27 20:04:25
40.   Steve
He threw that two strike breaking ball to Royce Clayton and I wanted to shoot a hole in my TV.
2005-04-27 20:07:20
41.   joekings
i still hate craig counsell.
2005-04-27 20:07:23
42.   Jim Hitchcock
Sheffield would have slugged the fan.
2005-04-27 20:11:30
43.   Jim Hitchcock
Bad J.D. Bad.
2005-04-27 20:11:53
44.   In Enemy Country
Horrible, horrible baserunning.
2005-04-27 20:13:29
45.   joekings
i blame glenn hoffman
2005-04-27 20:14:41
46.   alex 7
can someone shoot me a description of the play?
2005-04-27 20:15:56
47.   Steve
Dear Major League Baseball,

You have blacked me out for six wonderful consecutive days, and yet you were cruel enough to allow ESPN to show this Dodger game. Have you no mercy?

Sincerely,

Steve

2005-04-27 20:17:31
48.   Steve
Bradley hits a dribbler along the first base line in the Bermuda Triangle between the pitcher, 1B, and 2B. Ball dies, no play, Bradley is safe. JD Drew decides to round third for no apparent reason (probably Glenn Hoffman's idea), and the 1B picks up the ball and throws him out.
2005-04-27 20:18:59
49.   JD in Milan
description of play ... milton hit a roller between the pitcher and the first baseman and beat it out for an infield single.

Drew (who was on second), rounded third aggressively on the play, and slipped trying to get back to the bag

chad tracy double/tripled pumped (bc glaud wasnt covering the bag) but still was bale to get drew (barely)

imo not hoffman's (3b coach) fault

2005-04-27 20:19:26
50.   In Enemy Country
They showed Hoffman pointing to the base as JD was rounding it. Drew had his head up watching the entire play. He just blew it.
Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2005-04-27 20:22:50
51.   In Enemy Country
Nakamura sucks.
2005-04-27 20:24:09
52.   Chris H
I try not to judge guys based on their swings, but Nakamura looks horrid at the plate.
2005-04-27 20:24:38
53.   Steve
We're regressing to the mean with a bullet.
2005-04-27 20:26:07
54.   In Enemy Country
Gold glove for Milton? It's hard to unseat A. Jones, but Milton's got my vote.
2005-04-27 20:26:34
55.   Steve
Maybe we could have a designated third baseman. Saenz can hit and Nakamura can play defense.
2005-04-27 20:32:04
56.   Chris H
Phillips might want to think about practicing throwing to 2B.
2005-04-27 20:32:48
57.   alex 7
this inability to hold baserunners is getting ridiculous. I understand Lowe and his huge frame, but teams are running on all our guys.
2005-04-27 20:33:38
58.   DeucesAreWild
He reminds me a little too much of "Wild Thing" on those throws to second.
2005-04-27 20:39:37
59.   Jim Hitchcock
Counsell used up his mojo.
2005-04-27 20:40:58
60.   joekings
finally!
2005-04-27 20:41:23
61.   Marty
I love J.D.
2005-04-27 20:41:24
62.   DeucesAreWild
JD has a sweet swing.
2005-04-27 20:41:38
63.   alex 7
makes up for the running gaffe : )
2005-04-27 20:41:38
64.   Odysseus
yes!
2005-04-27 20:45:42
65.   Jim Hitchcock
Woulda preferred a productive oughtta here to a productive out...
2005-04-27 20:50:20
66.   Ryan Jerz
Who doubled in two? JD Drew. As for Phillips throwing to second, he looked great in the opening series against the Giants. What happened?
2005-04-27 20:51:15
67.   Daniel Zappala
Just got in ... I take it we're seeing "Good Weaver" tonight?
2005-04-27 20:51:51
68.   In Enemy Country
It's not Philips, its the pitchers. Runners are getting great jumps every time. Philips has no chance and rushes his throw, looking terrible in the process.
2005-04-27 20:54:36
69.   joekings
I agree with IEC, by the time phillips throws he is rushing to try to make up for the huge jump they have.
2005-04-27 20:55:19
70.   Blue Crew
#62
He does have a very nice looking swing. I think of all the left handed batters his is ni the top five for sweetest.
2005-04-27 20:57:07
71.   In Enemy Country
Why no Valentin here?
2005-04-27 20:58:39
72.   capdodger
{IEC 68, jKings 69}:
Seems like this is something for Colborn needs to work with the pitchers on.
2005-04-27 20:59:46
73.   In Enemy Country
How about telling them to mix in a slide step.
2005-04-27 21:00:59
74.   the OZ
RE #71 - I was thinking the same thing at first, but I'm OK with letting Nori hit. Since A. Perez is coming back soon, this might be Nakamura's only chance to show what he can (and can't) do. Plus, there's two outs in the inning, and we've got a lead. Might as well let him play until his next turn in the order, when there might be runners on for Valentin.
2005-04-27 21:02:27
75.   regfairfield
Well, he is an "ace pitching coach".
2005-04-27 21:02:30
76.   In Enemy Country
If I see Nakamura flip his bat on a saw job to the center fielder one more time I think I actually might vomit.
2005-04-27 21:03:39
77.   alex 7
Weaver will likely reach the 100 pitch mark here, so Tracy BETTER pinch hit for him to start the bottom of the 6th, regardless if the DBacks tie it up here.

Wunsch or Alvarez in the 7th
Sanchez or Schmoll in the 8th
Ghame Over.

2005-04-27 21:05:50
78.   In Enemy Country
At least he can pick it.
2005-04-27 21:06:22
79.   Jim Hitchcock
Good block, Sciosia-son.
2005-04-27 21:07:53
80.   alex 7
very nice, one more ground ball weaver.
Is Perez available as a hitter yet? Not sure what his DL status is. Just saw we have no RH PHs on the bench. Pinch hit Choi?
2005-04-27 21:07:53
81.   In Enemy Country
Joe Morgan just said that at one time Tony Clark was one of the best players in the A.L. That guy is hilarious.
2005-04-27 21:08:15
82.   Ryan Jerz
Phillips really looks good throwing that left shin in front of the plate.
2005-04-27 21:09:20
83.   alex 7
bring in the lefty.
2005-04-27 21:09:30
84.   Steve
Why did Melvin bat for Cormier there?
2005-04-27 21:09:55
85.   the OZ
Why is it not Wunschtime?
2005-04-27 21:10:35
86.   Steve
I hope Weaver stays out there forever. He's so pretty.
2005-04-27 21:12:32
87.   joekings
this is unbelieavable.
2005-04-27 21:12:37
88.   Jim Hitchcock
See Runge copying Counsell's facial expression?
Think he based the call the same way Vinny did.
2005-04-27 21:12:48
89.   alex 7
should have brought in the lefty.
2005-04-27 21:13:21
90.   In Enemy Country
That was bad but the walk to Clark is inexcusable.
2005-04-27 21:13:57
91.   Jim Hitchcock
I'd say this is unbeweavevable...
2005-04-27 21:14:41
92.   Vishal
doesn't the batter have to try to get out of the way? see: crede in oakland today.
2005-04-27 21:15:52
93.   Sam DC
Morgan also said, essentially, that Nakamura should've gone for the double play and let the run score. He didn't do that, says Morgan, because the Dodgers don't want a late inning tie because they're not a good offensive ballclub right now.

Isn't it always preferable to have the lead, regardless of outs and baserunners? Or no? Is a tie game with two outs and no one on better than a one run lead with one out and two on?

Obviously, both of those are better than a tie game with one out, bases loaded, and the Mighty Quinton batting.

2005-04-27 21:15:59
94.   Jim Hitchcock
I think Crede leaned into the pitch.
2005-04-27 21:17:07
95.   A E LUTHER
Chiming in, as the bell tolls for Weaver...
2005-04-27 21:19:10
96.   Fearing Blue
I watched that part of the Oakland game. Crede definitely leaned away and then realized how slow the pitch was and leaned back in. In slow-motion it was pretty obvious. Counsell was trying to check his swing and thus his left elbow was left hung out almost over the plate. It wasn't intentional, but it's still poor that he gets the bag on a pitch that really wasn't that far inside.
2005-04-27 21:19:56
97.   Sam DC
Re #93 -- just to close the loop, while it's not a total no-brainer, and it certainly hasn't worked out great so far, I'm with Nori. Stop the run, keep the lead, take your chances on getting two outs with two on.
2005-04-27 21:23:41
98.   Steve
More Jim Tracy putting people in position to succeed.
2005-04-27 21:24:10
99.   In Enemy Country
The Dodgers are doing everything wrong right now. Is this the same team as a week ago?
2005-04-27 21:26:50
100.   joekings
this is depressing.
Show/Hide Comments 101-150
2005-04-27 21:27:39
101.   Steve
Same manager.
2005-04-27 21:29:17
102.   In Enemy Country
Wait refresh my memory. Did the manager walk Tony Clark on 5 pitches and then hit a guy in a 2 for 25 slump. Has Tracy left all those guys on base the last week. Oh yeah that's right Tracy isn't a player.
2005-04-27 21:29:41
103.   Dodgerkid
Did Jim Tracy just finish the Dusty Baker School of Management? I remember the last four seasons of Tracy where he wouldn't hesitate to use a reliever.
2005-04-27 21:29:47
104.   Steve
Yeah but Tracy left Weaver in to die.
2005-04-27 21:31:16
105.   Steve
In other words, yes, Tracy walked Tony Clark and hit Craig Counsell. He needed to be pulled, and Tracy didn't pull him. Same old story that we've seen a thousand times before.
2005-04-27 21:31:27
106.   regfairfield
Grabowski has now played in 9 of the last 10 games.
2005-04-27 21:32:04
107.   JD in Milan
what a horrible manager melvin is ... how could he let his pitcher walk two straight batters
2005-04-27 21:32:28
108.   Steve
Is Perez available to pinch hit in this situation?
2005-04-27 21:33:10
109.   JD in Milan
come on kent ...
2005-04-27 21:33:13
110.   joekings
again, that was depressing.
2005-04-27 21:33:37
111.   Odysseus
so close, and yet so far
2005-04-27 21:35:31
112.   Steve
Here we go again. Koplove just came in. Weaver had thrown over 100 pitches, been raked by the first two hitters in the bottom of the D-Back lineup. He needed to go then. Then he walked Tony Clark. He really needed to go then. The reason Luis Gonzalez got to the plate is because Tracy let Weaver pitch forever to the bottom of the lineup. Perfectly controllable situation went out of control because Tracy is an idiot.
2005-04-27 21:37:19
113.   Midwest Blue
I cannot believe that we were unable to get at least a run with two guys on base and Drew and Kent up. What happened to the offense??
2005-04-27 21:37:46
114.   In Enemy Country
what a horrible manager melvin is ... how could he let his pitcher walk two straight batters
Exactly, some of you guys act like a pitcher not making pitches is a managers fault. Weaver is facing Tony Clark and can't throw him a strike. Bottom line if we lose this game it's on Weaver, not Tracy.
2005-04-27 21:38:06
115.   Steve
Couldn't get to the pitcher's spot.
2005-04-27 21:39:16
116.   In Enemy Country
Perfectly controllable situation went out of control because Tracy is an idiot.

If Weaver had gotten out of it would that make you an idiot?

2005-04-27 21:39:42
117.   Fearing Blue
I think the right call is somewhere in between. I think it was fine to leave Weaver in for Clark. But, once he walked Clark, he probably should have been pulled.
2005-04-27 21:39:45
118.   regfairfield
To be fair, according to gamecast, Drew's out went about 400 feet.
2005-04-27 21:41:29
119.   Steve
Depends on the situation. In that situation, Weaver needs to go. And Weaver certainly needed to go after he walked Clark, why anyone would even argue about that is beyond me. Here's a question for all of you "Tracy puts people in position to succeed" folks: Who would Kelly Wunsch be more likely to succeed against -- Craig Counsell or Luis Gonzalez?
2005-04-27 21:41:59
120.   A E LUTHER
This one's on Weaver so far, not Tracy. He's got to bear down and get those guys out. Thanks to Nakamura it could have been a bigger inning.
2005-04-27 21:42:13
121.   Fearing Blue
Drew's out went to the top of the wall in deep center. Luis Tererro had to jump at the wall to catch it.
2005-04-27 21:42:23
122.   Steve
No. That would have made Tracy lucky.
2005-04-27 21:43:29
123.   Sam DC
Was it mandatory as a matter of baseball wisdom to replace Schmoll (R) with Wunsch (L) to pitch to Gonzalez (L)? At the time, and before it went oh so badly, I was thinking, "I know you're supposed to do this, but gee that kid Schmoll sure loks good right now. He's throwing strikes and all, and the bases are loaded . . ."
2005-04-27 21:44:05
124.   In Enemy Country
"No. That would have made Tracy lucky."

Oh, I see. Well it looks like you've got it all figured out.

2005-04-27 21:45:18
125.   regfairfield
I don't see how you can possibly argue that anything after the Clark walk isn't on Tracy.
2005-04-27 21:45:29
126.   Fearing Blue
The point isn't really who deserves most of the blame. The point is making the right call on when to pull your pitcher, which Tracy seems to have been fairly erratic about recently. I agree with Steve that you have to pull him after he walks Clark, though I don't think he should have been pulled any earlier. He had just had a 1, 2, 3 inning on 6 pitches in the 6th.
2005-04-27 21:45:37
127.   capdodger
IEC 166:

The point is, he didn't. This isn't the first time Weaver has been cruising along, tires, loses contol and then gets knocked around. It's pretty much his MO.

2005-04-27 21:46:50
128.   the OZ
Olmeado, the Righty-killer!
2005-04-27 21:46:53
129.   Steve
Yep. When your pitcher sucks, you take him out. Check. Me 1, Tracy 0.
2005-04-27 21:47:21
130.   regfairfield
If Tracy had any amount of logic, Hee Seop would be hitting now.
2005-04-27 21:47:38
131.   Fearing Blue
Sam DC, I thought the same thing, but looking good against McCracken does not translate into looking good against Gonzalez. It's hard to argue with that move.
2005-04-27 21:47:51
132.   Sam DC
No Choi for Saenz against the righty?
2005-04-27 21:48:04
133.   A E LUTHER
What is Werth's status?
2005-04-27 21:49:33
134.   chin music
morgan keeps dogging nakamura for that play he made at home plate. i don't get it.
2005-04-27 21:50:18
135.   Fearing Blue
Regfairfield, this is just another case showing that Tracy has more confidence in Saenz than Choi even against right-handers. I agree that Choi should have pinch-hit, especially since he's better defensively.
2005-04-27 21:50:44
136.   the OZ
What's Jim Tracy's record in close games this week?
2005-04-27 21:51:13
137.   Dodgerkid
Didn't Tracy let Lowe pitch over 100 a few days ago? I'm sensing a lot of 100 pitch games in the last few days from our bespectacled friend.
2005-04-27 21:51:41
138.   Steve
I think he had Choi warming up in the bullpen.
2005-04-27 21:51:50
139.   Jim Hitchcock
Sam, I'm with you. The lefty-righty matchup is a lot like religion...you mess with it, you risk getting raked over the coals. But I would have either stayed with Schmoll, or gone with Sanchez there.
2005-04-27 21:52:01
140.   regfairfield
Right, just proving he lacks any sort of Earthly logic.
2005-04-27 21:52:25
141.   Fearing Blue
Re #134:
Well, with 20/20 hindsight, the 2 outs would have been more valuable than the run, since the D-backs went on to score 3 more runs. Nonetheless, Joe Morgan is clueless.
2005-04-27 21:52:28
142.   Steve
I was surprised that he pulled Weaver after he hit Counsell. He hadn't given up his requisite eight runs yet.
2005-04-27 21:55:46
143.   Jim Hitchcock
You're off by one start, Steve.
2005-04-27 21:55:54
144.   jeongers
Man, this is ugly. We're about to get swept by the D-Backs at home. On the bright side, the Sherlock Holmes episode of CSI was fun . . .
2005-04-27 21:56:56
145.   joekings
Tracy is always the last guy in the stadium to know when to pull the pitcher.
2005-04-27 21:59:55
146.   Fearing Blue
Re: Nakamura's play at home.

Just to make sure, I checked the run expectations from a paper I'm reading.
http://bayes.bgsu.edu/papers/rating_paper2.pdf
The statistics are from the NL in 1987, but I assume they're pretty close.

The run expectation for 1 out men on 1st and 2nd is .87 runs.

The run expectation for 2 out, no men on is .1, adding to the 1 run that would have scored, thats 1.1 runs.

So, on average, it is better to make the play at the plate, assuming it's guaranteed. But, Joe Morgan doesn't believe in statistics anyhow.

2005-04-27 22:00:27
147.   Jim Hitchcock
Cora would have caught that, jumped in a time machine, and gone back to catch the one Counsell dropped...
2005-04-27 22:01:24
148.   Dodgerkid
Has Justin Timberlake and his beard left the stadium to not be associated with the team losing?
2005-04-27 22:01:39
149.   A E LUTHER
If the D'back's pitching holds up, they're going to be the team to beat in the West.

Looking wayyyy ahead, due to a scheduling conflict, during the last home stand we play Pittsburgh? 3x at home and finish with 3 with Arizona.

2005-04-27 22:03:55
150.   joekings
the diamondbacks are scoring runs on accident and we can't buy a run.
Show/Hide Comments 151-200
2005-04-27 22:04:48
151.   the OZ
The worst part about the losing is that we've outplayed them in 2 of the three games.
2005-04-27 22:07:41
152.   In Enemy Country
So let me get this straight. Steve knows all and it's only a matter of time before someone finally gives him a shot managing a big league team. Jim Tracy when he's wrong is an idiot and when he's right is lucky. OK I think I got it. Thanks for all the help.
2005-04-27 22:07:58
153.   regfairfield
For such dominant pitching, they have given up 24 hits, 4 homeruns, and 6 walks this series. I would be more in favor of exceedingly lucky pitching.
2005-04-27 22:08:09
154.   Jim Hitchcock
Notice how Tommy N's laying low as he looks like a genius?
2005-04-27 22:09:52
155.   A E LUTHER
Colorado coming in for three followed by Washington for three. We've got to take 5/6 before going on the road vs. Cincy & Stl.

After that May's schedule doesn't get any easier, with Atlanta & Florida coming to C.R.

2005-04-27 22:10:24
156.   capdodger
Question about the 3 unassisted play with the RBI:
Given that Olmedo is a right handed firstbaseman and he caught the ball a step off first, might it have been a better play to throw home for the second half of the (possible) DP? It's a tag either way and you're not throwing over a runner.
2005-04-27 22:12:33
157.   the OZ
Does pinch-hitting Valantin against a lefty qualify as a "position to succeed?"
2005-04-27 22:13:52
158.   regfairfield
Well, the other options were Choi and Bako. I think that was the right call.
2005-04-27 22:16:46
159.   A E LUTHER
#156,

Good question, but I've seen that a few times, it depends on the break from third that the runner has with less than two outs, and if Olmedo is thinking home anyway, it's got to be bang-bang.

It appeared that he was fortunate to make the play on the ball in the first place. Choi should have pitch hit and he would have been at first but ....

2005-04-27 22:18:02
160.   the OZ
Well, the greater point is avoiding the situation where it is the only option. By going for a stright platoon wherever possible against a starting LHP, there are no RH bats on the bench.

Sigh. 7 runs on 24 hits and 6 walks.

30 baserunners, 7 runs.

2005-04-27 22:18:24
161.   A E LUTHER
Choi was 4-4 last night.
2005-04-27 22:18:35
162.   Steve
The issue is that Jim Tracy should have removed Weaver when the first two runners got on the seventh, and there is no argument that he shouldn't have removed Weaver after he walked Clark. You don't have to be a major league managerial candidate to know that, and in fact, it appears to help one's mental processes not to be a major league managerial candidate.

Why haven't Tracy-backers answered the question: Who was Kelly Wunsch "more likely" to succeed against -- Craig Counsell or Luis Gonzalez? That is because the question answers itself, and it's hard to play the "Tracy puts his players in position to succeed" card when he so obviously didn't tonight.

Or it could be that it was so obvious that he should have removed Weaver after walking Clark (I, for one, was throwing things long before Counsell ever came to the plate), that the question is irrelevant.

2005-04-27 22:19:07
163.   capdodger
I hope the day off takes care of what ails them. Back to the Gang of Four...
2005-04-27 22:21:52
164.   Fearing Blue
I decided to do a very subjective position-by-position comparison of the Dodgers and D-backs.

SP#1: Vazquez vs. Penny (slight edge D-backs)
SP#2: Webb vs. Lowe (slight edge Dodgers)
SP#3: Ortiz vs. Perez (slight edge Dodgers)
SP#4: Halsey vs. Weaver (slight edge Dodgers)
SP#5: Estes vs. Erickson (even, though Dessens or Alvarez are probably better than either)
SETUP: Koplove vs. Brazoban (slight edge Dodgers)
CLOSER: Lyon vs. Gagne (huge edge Dodgers)
1B: Tracy vs. Choi / Saenz (slight edge D-backs)
2B: Counsell vs. Kent (edge Dodgers)
SS: Clayton vs. Izturis (edge Dodgers)
3B: Glaus vs. Valentin / Nakamura (edge D-backs)
RF: Green vs. Drew (edge Dodgers)
CF: Cruz / McCracken / Terrero vs. Bradley (edge Dodgers)
LF: Gonzalez vs. Repko / Ledee / Werth (edge D-backs)
C: Snyder / Hill vs. Phillips / Bako (even)

Overall, I have the D-backs with a slight edge at SP#1 and 1B and a clear edge at 3B and LF.

Overall, I have the Dodgers with a slight edge at SP#2, SP#3, SP#4, and SETUP and a clear edge at 2B, SS, RF, CF, and CLOSER.

This is all just subjective, but it did make me think two things. One is that the D-backs are a pretty good team. The second is that the Dodgers should clearly be a better team, especially once Alvarez / Werth / Gagne are healthy.

2005-04-27 22:23:04
165.   regfairfield
Choi is hitting .123 in his carrer against left, Valentin is about .160.

Then again, Choi is hot, Valentin isn't, so it's a toss up.

2005-04-27 22:23:17
166.   capdodger
159:

Not that that run mattered all that much in the end, except to Gio's ERA.

2005-04-27 22:28:16
167.   A E LUTHER
Off day, they need to shake themselves after that and get back on the winning track.
2005-04-27 22:29:55
168.   Im So Blue
We just got back from the game (Yeah, we left early; it's a school night). Boy, Nakamura's swing looks even uglier in person than it does on TV.

There were 2 mistakes on the Fleece Blanket. It has the 6 Dodger World Series Winners listed as 1955, 1959, 1962, 1966, 1981 and 1988. They handed out vouchers that you could send in with your ticket stub to get a replacement blanket.

2005-04-27 22:30:06
169.   Fearing Blue
When are Alvarez and Perez starting their minor league rehab assignments? I thought it was supposed to be tonight, but I went to go check and the 51's have the night off. I hope that three weeks is enough to get Perez comfortable at 3B.
2005-04-27 22:33:16
170.   LAT
I don't ever need to go to a sold out game again. Coming in off Sunset took 30 mins. It used to be impossible to get out of DS. Now getting in is even harder. And the food lines were brutal. I guess I'm getting old but I would rather sit at home, watch Vin, and keep my laptop on Dodger Thoughts.
2005-04-27 22:38:16
171.   bigcpa
We just got swept by a team with Counsell and McCracken batting 1/2. And Joe Morgan presided over it. Hopefully in August or so we'll think back to this series and have a hearty laugh.

And I'm done with Repko in the 2-hole. Let's see Bradley bat 2nd vs. lefties even after Werth gets back.

2005-04-27 22:55:06
172.   Bob Timmermann
I got back fairly quickly because I stayed for the whole thing. The hardest thing was finding my car.

I'm giving away my blanket "honoring" the 1962 and 1966 World Champs to a friend. I will send in a voucher for the correct one.

I had the misfortune of sitting in front of one of those guys who likes to tell everybody how bad the Dodgers are playing. It looked to me that they ripped a lot of line drives at people and hit a couple of drives that Terrero made good plays on.

2005-04-27 23:14:39
173.   Vishal
yeah, it seemed like the dodgers were hitting balls hard all series long, but many of them were falling for hits, and the ones that did weren't strung together enough. arizona had the same number of hits during the series, but they scored more runs in every game. i wonder what the dodgers' BABIP for the series was.
2005-04-27 23:39:57
174.   Bob Timmermann
AZ was 8 for 23 tonight on BIP (33 ABs, 10 Ks, no HRs, and 8 hits)
Tuesday Arizona was 3 for 24
Monday 11 for 29

So, the total would have been 22 for 76 or .289

2005-04-28 00:03:34
175.   Xeifrank
still a little early to be making player comparisons, ie - who is better. If Bradley still has better numbers than Beltran at the all-star break, then please wake me up. At the moment there are alot of cheap players that are putting up better numbers than the overpaid Beltran. Might also be good to compare the numbers of Beltre vs Valentin.

Good stuff as always.

vr

Xeifrank

2005-04-28 00:04:17
176.   Xeifrank
Make Houlton a starter?

What do you think? Is it time to sh*t can Scott Erickson and promote Houlton to a starter?

vr

Xei

2005-04-28 00:05:32
177.   Xeifrank
Misuse of bullpen. I hate the modern day strategy of only pitching a closer in a save situation. With the game on the line tonight and Counsel and Gonzo up, would've been a great time for the well rested Brazoban to pitch.

Thoughts?

vr

Xei

2005-04-28 00:31:37
178.   GoBears
Got back from the game at about 11. Stopped to read through the chat before weighing in. First, I thought Tracy botched the 7th inning. Pulling Weaver late was one thing. Going thru 3 more pitchers for the last 2 outs was inexcusable. It was infuriating.

My impression of the Dodger offense is the same as Bob T's. They were smacking the ball all over the place, but the balls just weren't dropping. Same as yesterday. I'm not worried. Drew had a HR taken away by a good defensive play. Only Nakamura and Saenz (against righties) looked completely lost.

2005-04-28 00:35:29
179.   Eric L
I generally have no quibbles with Tracy's managing. I think he has done a competent job over the last several years.

He does seem to manage "by the book" at times. Schmoll looked pretty dominant against McCracken. Was it really necessary to do the LOOGY thing when Gonzalez came to bat? Perhaps Tracy has some minor league splits that say Schmoll does poorly against lefties. Whatever, just seemed like a "by the book" move to me.

He might have left Weaver in too long, but when your offense only scores 3 runs, you aren't going to win many ball games.

2005-04-28 00:37:38
180.   Eric L
Oh I should add, Schmoll did a good job with McCracken, but of course, it is McCracken...

And I agree with GoBears. The three pitchers thing was too much (you said it better than I did).

They did seem to knock the stuffing out of the ball tonight only to have it land in someone's glove.

2005-04-28 00:39:21
181.   GoBears
It was my first trip to the Stadium this season, so it was fun to be there, but really as little fun as a Dodger game can be. The giveaway brought out not just lots of people (54000+), but lots of folks who were indifferent to the fact that a ballgame was going on. Granted, I was in the cheap seats in the top deck, but I regularly sit there, and this was the worst it's ever been. Lots of people just standing up, chatting, hitting beachball after beachball, and not even watching the game, let alone allowing the rest of us to see anything. Then, there was one guy whose sole talent in life seems to be the loud, 2-fingers-in-the-mouth shriek-whistle, and he showed this off for SEVEN INNINGS! Almost non stop. At least a dozen people went over to him, and nicely asked him to stop, because it was piercing (the second-hand smoke of sound pollution). Then people started yelling at him to stop, and he just flipped everyone off. Then the ushers came over. Then security. They finally tossed him in teh bottom of the 9th (which, as you know, went quickly). But I was ready to kill the guy. I think I've outgrown the cheap seats. I'm too old to deal with jerkoffs. Single worst time I've ever had at DS.
2005-04-28 00:52:54
182.   Eric L
GB,

Funny, I had a similar experience in the pavilion tonight. I love the fact that the seats are pretty good for $6. However, the knuckle draggers that sit out there think that it is witty to say F-you (insert outfielders name) as a put down. It's even cuter when they start to question the left fielder's (Gonzo in this case) sexuality.

I have no problem with people giving players a hard time (probably cause my bro loves doing that junk), but at least come up with something better than something that starts with F-you.

2005-04-28 00:57:50
183.   GoBears
Oh well. At least we got flawed fleece!
2005-04-28 06:58:35
184.   Im So Blue
Hey, we were also in the Top Deck, in our favorite cheap seats (back row, behind home plate). I agree with GB about the large numbers of indifferent people, but thankfully, we were far enough away from the whistler to have not noticed him. There was a 10 year old girl nearby with an ear-piercing screech before the game started, but that was only for a few minutes. From my experience in the Top Deck the last two years, you seem to find more of the disinterested people in the higher numbered aisles. IMHO, the better seats in aisles 1-2 are sold earlier to the baseball fans who've planned in advance to go to the game.

We also went to Opening Day and sat in the RF Pavilion, and had the same experience as Eric L. That day they were questioning Tucker's preferences. At least my kids (teenagers) were old enough to take it in stride; but we'll never sit in the Pavilion again.

2005-04-28 07:48:10
185.   Bob Timmermann
I'm not losing a lot of sleep over the slump. The NL West is showing itself to be playing not as expected.

The expected powerhouses are anything but as the Padres can't seem to score and the Giants are losing players left and right. Will the return of Barry Bonds allow the Giants to score enough runs to make up for the fact that their pitchers won't be able to get anyone out.

The Rockies have to play a doubleheader today at Coors before coming out here.

2005-04-28 07:59:59
186.   Jeromy
I work at a University. Fan misbehavior is a major issue here and all across the conference. Even the President makes comments about it at Orientation in an attempt to set expectations. I can imagine what it would be like if we were a football school. If baseball wants to continue to appeal to families, something will need to be done. It is a free country, but do people really need use expletive after expletive in front of all the kids? Frankly, I think fan misbehavior at the ballpark is a more important issue than steroid use.
2005-04-28 08:53:47
187.   gvette
Despite the D-Backs, the sun rose this morning, leading to the following conclusions:

April leads are meaningless; the Dodgers had the identical record, 13-8 after 21 games last year;

For now, the Giants are screwed; no Bonds and a worse bullpen than last year;

Glaus hasn't played a full season in two years, and if he can't this season, we know that Green can't carry a team anymore;

The Dodger experiment of playing WITHOUT a productive left fielder will be over soon, with Werth returning soon to help share the load with Kent, Drew, and Bradley; The Dodger experiment of playing WITHOUT a productive thirdbaseman will continue however;

By June, Werth, Gagne, Penny and Alvarez will be productive; Repko will be back in the minors and Erickson will hopefully be unemployed on a beach sunning himself with his wife;

Relax Dodger fans, but to avoid possible brain damage avoid listening to know nothing sports radio hacks like Vic "The Brick", or reading the "unbiased" analysis of the Times.

2005-04-28 11:00:34
188.   Bob Timmermann
The Dodgers will get to see the DBacks again relatively soon. They will be in Arizona over Memorial Day weekend (Fri-Sun). The DBacks are off on Memorial Day.

The DBacks travel down to PETCO this weekend and they will be facing Jake Peavy Friday night. If the Padres have any sort of offense, they should win.

The highest OBP of any Padre is Mark Sweeney at .400
The Padres are not getting much offense out of anyone whose first name doesn't start with an X.

2005-04-28 11:18:04
189.   fanerman91
I think more than anything we just need a day off. We sure could use offense at left field though.
2005-04-28 11:38:41
190.   bigcpa
Here's an encouraging stat... minus Nowan Sukamora our 1b/3b combined:

.266/.384/.446

2005-04-28 12:30:44
191.   Fearing Blue
Big, that's very cool. In a few weeks, Perez should take over the right-handed side of the 3B platoon, to help keep those numbers up. I think the 1B platoon should continue to be productive. Over the course of the season I be we end up with ~.800 OPS for the 2 positions combined, which isn't great for 1B/3B, but it's certainly not bad either.
2005-04-28 14:53:02
192.   LetsGoDodgers
Antonio Perez at 3rd base? Can't we upgrade and trade for Chris Widger?
2005-04-28 15:59:15
193.   Gold Star for Robot Boy
Not sure where to post this, but here is a good a place as any...
Despite the Dodgers' recent woes, BPro still gives them the best chance of any team in MLB to reach the playoffs - 57.3 percent.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php
Sample size and all, but still...
2005-04-28 16:46:16
194.   DeucesAreWild
Back to the Hee-Seop Choi nickname debate, I find it funny that his teammates call him "Chop." Short, catchy, and fitting.

Somehow I found myself bored enough at work to read the transcript of Milton's chat on Dodgers.com:

fisch69: Hi Milton. It seems like you are getting along with Hee-Seop Choi. What's he like?

Bradley: Everybody's good people. Chop is one of the guys that's been looked upon to produce and he's had his struggles like myself, but I just try to keep him confident and let him know he's got a friend.

-- Let's go Chop.

2005-04-28 16:57:50
195.   bigcpa
Anyone have a BP premium account? I need to read that Hawkins column today. I paid for the book!
2005-04-28 16:59:31
196.   Jim Tracy
Just some radom statistics to ponder upon:

MLB Homers per game down 16% from last year.
MLB Average Slugging % down 4% from .428 to .411

Dodger statistics:

Batting:

Strikout percentages:

Jason Repko 26% (11K in 42ABs)
Jose Valentin 31% (17 in 54)
Hee-Seop Choi 28% (14 in 50)

Current form:

Izturis - 16 hits in 46 at bats in last ten games (.348)
Valentin - 2 for 29 in last eleven games
Nakamura - 1 for 20 in last 8
Repko - 2 for 16 in last 7
Choi - 8 for 20 in last 6
Saenz - 3 for 11 in last 5 with 0 BBs and 1 HR

Pitching:

Dodgers 16th of 16 in NL in Ks per 9 innings behind the Giants and the Rockies with 5.12 (ESPN.com)

2005-04-28 17:14:47
197.   bigcpa
http://www.jacksonvillesuns.com

Anyone bored? We're listening to Billingsley pitch on the webcast.

2005-04-28 17:32:07
198.   rubdawg
Young drives in Guzman, Loney is on second this is an awesome glimpse of the future
2005-04-28 21:43:26
199.   Mark
196-"MLB Homers per game down 16% from last year."

The Rockies have had a few games cancelled.

2005-04-29 01:28:43
200.   Langhorne
And the juice is no longer flowing.

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