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Also ...
A Season in Savannah (Stanford Magazine)
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Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2006) (Hardball Times)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2007) (Hardball Times)
Dodger home record: 39-30 (.565)
When Jon attended: 5-3 (.625)
When Jon didn't: 34-27 (.557)
Dodgers at home: 745-600 (.554)
Jon attended: 293-233 (.557)*
Jon didn't: 457-374 (.550)
* includes road games attended
Current Roster with Estimated 2008 Salaries
(updated March 28)
Most figures are estimates (some are wild estimates) but will be updated as information comes in. Corrections welcome.
More contract details here.
Starting Pitchers (5)
$12,300,000 Hiroki Kuroda
$10,000,000 Derek Lowe
$9,500,000 Brad Penny
$7,000,000 Esteban Loaiza
*$500,000 Chad Billingsley
Total: $39,300,000
Bullpen (6)
$2,000,000 Takashi Saito
$1,925,000 Joe Beimel
$1,125,000 Scott Proctor
*$500,000 Jonathan Broxton
$500,000 Chan Ho Park
*$400,000 Hong-Chih Kuo
Total: $6,450,000
Starting Lineup (8)
$14,100,000 Andruw Jones
$13,000,000 Rafael Furcal
$9,000,000 Jeff Kent
$8,500,000 Nomar Garciaparra
$8,000,000 Juan Pierre
$500,000 Russell Martin
*$400,000 James Loney
*$400,000 Matt Kemp
Total: $53,900,000
Bench (6)
$875,000 Gary Bennett
$600,000 Mark Sweeney
$424,500 Andre Ethier
$391,000 Delwyn Young
$390,000 Chin-Lung Hu
$390,000 Blake DeWitt
Total: $3,071,000
Disabled List
$12,000,000 Jason Schmidt
*$400,000 Tony Abreu
*$390,000 Andy LaRoche
Total: $12,790,000
Also Paying ...
$1,000,000 Brett Tomko
$750,000 Odalis Perez
$540,000 Yhency Brazoban
$500,000 Randy Wolf
$487,500 Jason Repko
$135,225 Rudy Seanez
$100,000 Mike Lieberthal
$50,000 Ramon Martinez
Total: $3,562,725
Working total: *$113,268,725
*Rough salary estimate
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If Dodger Thoughts were bigger, perhaps some of my March and April quotes demeaning the Padres' chances of winning the National League West would have appeared on their mythical bulletin board, and I would be to blame for their run to first place.
In any case, San Diego has surged atop the West, taking a half-game lead over Arizona and a 2 1/2-game lead over the Dodgers by beating up some of the top teams from the Central and East divisions. Overall, the Padres have overcome their 10-11 start against the West by going 15-5 against teams from the other two divisions.
The Diamondbacks and Dodgers are as close as they are because they have good records against the West that mitigate their mediocre performance against the Central and East.
Team vs. West Central East Padres 10-11 9-5 6-0 D'backs 18-8 5-5 2-4 Dodgers 14-8 5-4 3-6 Giants 11-13 7-6 1-2 Rockies 8-21 0-0 4-5Which is more relevant? The Padres' success in their more recent games outside the division, or their struggle against the teams they are competing with directly for the division title?
Next week, to essentially close the second month of the season, the Padres and Dodgers each play six games on the road at Arizona and San Francisco. By the end of those series, the division won't be won, but we'll know if there's a clear favorite in the National League West or if it's going to be a game of leapfrog for a bit longer.
I'm still no fan of the San Diego offense, but the Padres' bullpen is strong once again, and Adam Eaton (3.35 ERA) and recent callup Tim Stauffer (3.46) have elevated the starting pitching behind Jake Peavy (2.57), who tries to extend San Diego's seven-game winning streak tonight against Seattle.
* * *
Eric Gagne has been back on the Dodger roster for a week, yet neither he nor Yhency Brazoban have made any appearances of real significance in that time.
While I believe that ultimately, a Dodger starting pitcher should be expected to go longer than five innings, recent trends recommend that Jim Tracy be prepared to remove a starter at the first sign of trouble after five.
The plan would go like this:
For road games involving Scott Erickson, I would put the warning clock at four innings.
Of course, events don't go according to plan all the time. If someone gets blown out, they get blown out. If a starter is pitching a perfect game, or has given up 4 runs but the offense behind him has scored 12, leave him in. If the game goes extra innings, it's all on Houlton. In fact, it's because games don't always go to plan that the relievers would actually get their rest. Not every reliever would be needed every day.
But in the close games that most frequently confront the Dodgers, this plan would make the best use of the current staff and have greater potential of building its confidence and morale - by taking the pressure off each pitcher to hold a lead for an extended outing.
After that, the Dodger pitchers can get back to being macho.
(Certainly, I'd also be happy to see Brazoban or Gagne used as a smokejumper during those bases-loaded, no-out middle-inning moments. But for now, baby steps ...)
This is why I hate it whenever we play the Angels or Padres.
In a division that is likely to come down to 2 or 3 games (like last year), is it really fair that we have to play 6 with ANA (23-17, .575), and the Padres get 6 with SEA (16-24, .400) and the DBacks get 6 with DET (19-20, .487)??
besides, the Mariners have the all time greatest third baseman in the history of the game, so they could explode at any moment...right?
Penny has had one start against the Halo's in his career and it wasn't good; Lowe has had mixed results. Erickson... let's just say I'm amazed he can make it twice through any opposing lineup.
Washburn has had mixed results against the Dodgers albeit more bad than good. Byrd has had some successes vs. LAD. Lackey has been dominant against the cross-town rivals. On a down note, both Byrd and Lackey have been in a groove this month.
The silver lining is no K-Rod for games 1 and 2, possibly the whole series. I'm not sure it will matter as I see a frustrating sweep on the horizon. I just hope it's not compounded by a Padres sweep of the Mariners.
Dessens' shoulder, Gagne's elbow, Werth's wrist, Perez's hamstring, Alvarez's arm, Weaver's shoulder, Odalis' shoulder - and it's only May. This list doesn't count the "impact" injuries (with the exception of Werth's slow-healing wrist), either.
My point is not to lay any blame to the Dodgers med staff - certainly, there's some bad luck in play here and I don't have nearly enough knowledge or information to judge their performance. However, given the struggles we've had keeping key people healthy, the question of "is the med staff ineffective?" may be worth an investigation.
The Dodgers have four quality starting pitchers, a quality setup man and closer, and by all evidence thus far, a quality offense and defense. They have a chance to do something special THIS SEASON, and they need Jeff Weaver to be a part of this. They can't afford to keep losing three-game series at home because their starting pitchers are making a habit of quitting on them. If they are injured, as is the case now with Perez, then they can rest and work the problem. If not, then they need to what the team requires.
As a pitcher, there's going to be days where you can't seem to buy a strikeout. There's going to be days where you can't get ahead in the count to 90% of the hitters you face. Those are the days where you have to buckle down and limit the damage. Be a competitor. Stay focused; keep your head in the damn game. Keep the ball in the ballpark, at least; give your defense a chance to get the outs you need. If I'm Jim Colborn, I'm out there every inning during a game like Wednesday, continually hounding Weaver and getting him back on track until he's convinced me that he's ready. Carlton Fisk used to do that to Bill Lee all the time, until Lee got sick of him -- but Lee would also be ready to keep his mind on the game.
It's time to get this ship right before they completely squander everything they did in the first 14 games. I still believe this team is clearly the best in the NL West. It's high time their pitching staff pulled their heads out of those small tunnels they are residing in and pitch the way I (and other Dodger fans) have SEEN them pitch. The series with the Angels would be a good time to start on the right road.
In the same number of games (40) the Dodgers have drawn 49 more walks than the Angels. Or just about 1.2 more per game. And the Dodgers have 41 more runs too.
Mike Scioscia would not say there is any corollary between the two figures.
The Angels are 35 out of 49 on steals, about 70% while the Dodgers are just 14 of 22, about 64%.
Don't forget the Dodgers secret weapon of HBPs. 25 of them!
Frankie Rodriguez will miss tonight's game and maybe longer. If the Dodgers can get to the Angels relievers who are not named Donnelly or Shields, I would be optimistic.
That doesn't matter though because each NL West team plays a home and away series with the Pirates so it evens out. Interleague "rival" games are the only ones that don't. You are right that over a 10 year span it will all even out, but that doesn't change the fact that this year we have a tougher schedule. On that same note - the DBacks have to play the White Sox while we get to skip them. Good for us, but in the fight for a fair and balanced schedule, you can't have it with interleague play. Plus, who wants to play with the DH? Ever?
Yes, Delgado and Cabrera are great hitters, and there's no shame in allowing them a HR. Moreover, the pitch Weaver threw to Delgado was practically unhittable - fading down-and-away, as I remember it.
But the question is, given everything that had been going up to that point, and with an off day Thursday, were there better options available than Weaver? Did a fresh reliever give the Dodgers a better chance of escaping the inning - not a certainty, but a better chance? The answer seems to be yes.
Grit and buckling down are all fine things, but is it so bad if sometimes a guy just needs a reliever's shoulder to lean on before he falls over, rather than being carried out of the game after the fall?
are the Dodgers as bad as the last 26 games, I don't think so...
are they as good as the first 14 games, I also don't think so....
are they clearly the class of the West, I don't think so there either...
the Dodgers are to me a better than average team that, to be successful must be firing on all cylinders...they did that last year, but so far it isn't happening this year, and with all the injuries, it may not this year...
You forgot to blame the med staff for Valentin's torn ACL...
is it fair that the Devil Rays played the Yankees when they were in a tailspin rather than when they won 10 in a row...its the luck of the draw...
Werth had three hits last night, raising his average to .323 and driving in his first three RBI of the season
BAD NEWS
Still no extra base hits, and he has more K's(13) than hits (10)
Just like Seattle is San Diego's "rival".
The Rockies are the odd team out in the NL West and get 3 interleague series at home (Chicago, Detroit, and KC) and 2 on the road (Cleveland and Baltimore)
You forgot to read the sentence "Of course they're [the Med staff] not to blame for players getting hurt..."
I'm not blaming the med staff for Valentin''s torn ACL - which is why I noted that we've had some sudden "impact" injuries - Valentin's knee, Izturis' ankle, Werth's wrist (at least initially - letting him hit off a tee may or may not have made things worse). Maybe the sentence was awkwardly worded, implying that maybe they were. Of course, this was not my intention.
I'm not blaming the med staff for anything. Read more carefully in the future.
Thanks.
Delgado had four homeruns coming into the Dodgers series. He's a decent hitter for a 33 year old with back problems, but I think that Colborn and Weaver are participating in some good old fashioned spin doctoring when they rave about how good that pitch was. Because it wasn't.
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Well, it's worth noting that through 40 games, last year's Dodgers were 22-18. Through 40 games, this year's Dodgers are also 22-18.
If I recall, our best starting pitcher was hurt for 2 months last year, and our best hitter was plagued with a nagging injury all year. We still managed to "fire on all cylinders"...
As some sappy country song about the Dodgers (http://tinyurl.com/davoq) once said, "on the other side of memory's fence, the grass is always green." I think Howard may be suffering from this phenomenon.
Making this one of the few times in a season I must reply up MLB.com's radio package. Which means it's a weekend of Steiner and Monday. Eww.
The pitch to Cabrera was simply awful, however.
At what point do the Dodgers put Werth out of their plans? It's dangerous for a team to wait... wait... wait... for an expected key part to return from an injury.
I also think Oz posed a fair question about the medical staff. As Jon's pointed out before, there has been a consistent pattern over the last 3 years of either (a) badly underestimating the severity of injuries, or (b) willfully misleading the public regarding the true nature of said injuries.
I'm not sure whether (a) or (b) is true, but one of them HAS to be. The Cubs medical staff has also displayed the same pattern, and they've been much more harshly criticized for it than the Dodgers have.
However, given the struggles we've had keeping key people healthy, the question of "is the med staff ineffective?" may be worth an investigation.
----------------------
Why would you recommend investigating someone if you don't think they are to blame?
"I'd like to register a complaint against the Dodger training staff. (I believe you have made similar comments.) Doesn't it seem to you that an above-average number of medical controversies seem to befall our boys in blue? Green's shoulder, McGriff's groin, Perez's finger, Beltre's appendix, the various - and expensive - disabilities of Brown and Dreifort.
Somewhere, within the nexus of players-trainers-coaches, is a dysfunction. Does Jim Tracy throw his top players on the field, no matter how poor their health? (Wow - imagine quiet ol' Jim, acting like Bear Bryant.) Is Stan Johnston's crew simply bad, misdiagnosing injuries? Budget cutbacks in the trainer's office? (Think "Major League," with the jury-rigged whirlpool. Also, Marge Schott's 14-year reich in Cincinnati had penny-wise pound-foolish training staff; remember the scandal over Eric Davis' lacerated kidney in the 1990 World Series?)
Is there mistrust between the players and Johnston, where they'd rather lie? The first man I'd like to testify on this topic is Odalis Perez.
Johnston, going off the media guide, is an organizational soldier, but behind the lines, if I may stretch the metaphor. He started with the Great Falls team in 1985 and has worked his way up the chain: Bakersfield, Albuquerque and assistant in The Show. I'm not going to lay everything at Johnston's feet - who knows what's happening behind closed doors. But this is a matter that needs to be addressed in the offseason. Will Dan Evans do it? This is his second year as Johnston's boss, so he should have formed an opinion by now. If the team is sold, with the new owners even look in that direction, or will they be too busy hiring architects and contractors so they can cram housing into Chavez Ravine, or lobbying for a downtown stadium? Good organizations are proactive about the health of their players - end of story."
Jon, I know you're not making Tracy the only scapegoat. A lot of others were, though. Hey, his in-game mistakes cause me to yell at him through my TV screen a lot. But in this case, I find it hard to blame him as much as I blame Weaver.
I know that Delgado hit a good pitch; I should have quantified that. And that leads to my point, in a way: he was still able to make good pitches, but seemed to throw up his hands and quit after he gave up that homer. Apparently, he even said "'bout time" when he got pulled, and that's the LAST thing I want to hear from my pitcher.
There have been an avalanche of homers hit against the Dodgers in the past several games, and most of them have been poor pitches from pitchers who looked to be throwing in the towel. I suppose I'm just frustrated, as a lot here are ... I'm going to the game tonight, and I'm excited to be there; there's a lot of pride and bragging rights among many of those I know. All I'm looking for is the Dodgers to play to their ability, and make a good fight out of this.
I've been a fan of this team for a long time, as you have; I'm not giving up on them. Those that are getting on Tracy have very valid points; I'll go so far as to say that if the Dodgers win the division this season, they will do it largely in spite of Tracy's ineptitude. I just feel that the Dodger pitching staff is better than this, and that this is a prime example of why they are underachieving.
I am concerned about SD but I don't think they'll run away with it. Bochy is not a very good manager, and their line-up is packed with injury-prone players.
On another note, one could say that SD's 10-0 record against FL, Atl., and St.L. is a very bad sign. However, they played those three teams in the midst of a very good streak. I sincerely think that if the Dodgers had played those three teams in the midst of THEIR early streak, they would've fared much better.
When you're that hot, as both LA was and SD is now, you can beat any opponent. Conversely, when you're struggling, you have trouble with just about anybody.
My prediction for tonight: three HR's in four innings by Erickson. If he pitches five innings, then make that 4 HR's.
"Ultimately, one wants to give the benefit of the doubt to the Dodger coaching and medical staff, although their denial of injury reality with such players Hideo Nomo and Shawn Green in the past calls for some scrutiny. On the other hand, Adrian Beltre thrived in 2004 on his bum extremities.
"Personally, I have faith that Gagne will be fine this season. But I've learned over time that just because a Dodger tells the media that everything is okay doesn't mean that it is."
My suspicion is we are bordering on thin right now, but that doesn't stop me from root, root, rooting for the Dodgers...
the responsibility for the lineup, for the condition of the players, for recovery from injuries, for most of what we complain about should rightly fall at the feet of Tracy...after all, he is the manager, he picks his staff, supposedly...if conditioning coaches or trainers or whomever is not performing to the proper level, he needs to be the one to answer for it...
back to a previous point, the 22-18 record this year is a lot different than the 22-18 last year...our fundamentals are bad this year and that has caused a lot of the in-game failures this year...poor fundamentals compound themselves as the year progresses...
it's kind of like when the drain in the bathrub doesn't seal, no matter what you do, there is always some of it leaking away...that is what our poor fundamentals are doing to us right now...
37 -- that may be true, but it is hard to see how that makes any sense, unless Tracy is excited to see Gagne come in to a lot of 8-2 games.
36 -- As one of whom you speak, in my case personally, I have completely given up on our pitching staff. So to criticize them for giving up homeruns on bad pitches is, for me, like criticizing a zebra for having stripes. It's who they are. It's what they do. Sure, they deserve blame for it, but it's Tracy who has to take that mess and add value to it and maximize our chances despite it. And as you appear to agree, he's doing a lousy job of it. So you can divide the "blame" in any portion you want, but the fact remains that Jim Tracy is giving us less of a chance to win games than otherwise. And that's not acceptable at any level.
Count me among those who don't believe Weaver shouted "bout time," (I went back on the TiVo when it came up here, and saw him shout something, but don't think it was that), but even if he did, it was "bout time," so I'm not sure what the problem would be.
Well, those bad fundamentals still enabled us to post the same record, so it must follow that there are some things the v.2005 Dodgers do better than last year's version, right?
Or are you saying that teams with bad fundamentals, even winning ones, are all destined to become losers before the end of the season? That sounds like filler from a rejected Joe Morgan column.
I don't mean to be confrontational, Howard; I really am trying (futilely) to understand where you're coming from.
I agree with #37, SD won't run away with it. I have Padre fans telling me that they are going to win 105 games, since they have the best pitching in the NL. Give me a break.
And I agree with the idea of pulling pitchers earlier. Isn't that why we are carrying a bazillion pitchers? But I don't get all the Tracy haters. Have you always hated him, or is it just recently, with his pitcher handling? Personally, I've never had huge feelings about him one way or the other. He seems to do some things well, like get everyone involved and move people around for good matchups (caveats abound, but you know what I mean).
while this year we do the little things wrong, and my fear is we are a lot closer to the 10-16 team than the 12-2 team...
I hope I am wrong...but I go to a lot of games, probably 65-70 a year, and there are things you don't see on TV or in the box scores that are indicaters of a team not being prepared or well schooled
-----------------------
Just for kicks, Howard, care to share an example or two of those things I can't tell from watching on TV?
Also, your claim that we "were good consistently" last year is undermined by the fact that by this time in 2004 we'd already had an 8-game losing streak, far worse than anything that's gone on this year. My contention is still, Howard, that you are choosing to remember only the good things about 2004 while forgetting the bad ones -- and for the 2005 team, vice versa.
"So to criticize them for giving up homeruns on bad pitches is, for me, like criticizing a zebra for having stripes. It's who they are. It's what they do."
It's been a recent phenomenon, though.
Dodgers' pitching, 1st 34 games:
301 IP, 30 HR allowed
Dodgers' pitching, last 6 games:
54 IP, 14 HR allowed
¶ NEW YORK (AP) _ Los Angeles pitchers Heath Totten and Tom Farmer and Arizona pitcher Chad Scarbery were suspended for 15 games Friday for violating baseball's minor league steroids policy.
¶ There have been 66 players penalized under the minor league program and five players suspended under the major league policy.
¶ Totten, Farmer and Scarbery are all right-handers and have spent their entire careers in the minors.
¶ Totten, 26, was 5-2 with a 4.97 ERA in eight starts for Triple-A Las Vegas. Farmer, 25, was 1-1 with a 14.58 ERA in 15 games for Las Vegas.
Not sure why the penalty was bumped up to 15 games from 10; Weber, Totten, and Farmer all failed their tests under the same minor league steroid policy.
Unless you subscribe to the theory that the Red Sox won solely because Dave Roberts stole a base and Orlando Cabrera fielded the shortstop better than Nomar Garciaparra.
The problem isn't "little things", which I'm not sure what those things consist, but rather "big things". Like having starting pitchers who don't give up lots and lots of home runs.
The two top teams in MLB history in LOB are the 1976 Reds, who went 102-60, and the 1941 Browns, who went 70-84.
I'm guessing that the Dodgers record will be somewhere in between those two.
This is the same reason that having a high GIDP rate as a team is not necessarily bad. It's a direct function of having lots of guys on base. This is why the infielders who lead the league in DPs almost always play for crappy teams; those lousy pitchers are putting more guys on first.
Call this the Glenn Hubbard Effect.
I concur.
I will clarify that it's starting pitching that I'm concerned with. All the talk last year about Quality Starts and how Weaver should have been considered for the Cy Young last year got to Tracy's head. Our starters outperformed expectations last year, and are underperforming so far this year. In the end it's a group of guys who are slightly better than league average.
Does it make me mad when our pitchers don't perform? Absolutely, but I don't think it's because of focus, chemistry, or heart and soul. It's because they're not as good as we'd all like them to be.
Both of these teams have impotent offenses. Although I think one of them will become more potent after drinking Dr. Erickson's Bat Feel Good Now Potion.
"o o ee ea ae ioe oee. Aou I i oe o e i eoe oe oe ae ii Eio' a ee oo o oio."
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No, he wasn't. That's why the discrepancy is so puzzling to me.
Maybe there's a different penalty if you fail an in-season test vs an off-season one.
12th in the NL in ERA
13th in the NL in BA against (you can keep your DIPS -- the opposition is hitting ropes)
12th in the NL in SLG against (so you can definitely keep your DIPS)
10th in the NL in OBP against
12th in the NL in OPS against
9th in the NL in DIPS ERA (virtually tied with Arizona for 10th)
Tied 4th (with Colorado!) in Total Bases Allowed
3rd in Hits Allowed
2nd in the National League in RUN SUPPORT (ahead of Colorado and behind only St. Louis)
Of course, you can play the sample size game all you want -- though it wasn't the pitching that helped us start 12-2 (the Giants home opener, the Arizona series, etc.), but we have the sample size we have -- it's one quarter of the season, and our pitchers are not very good. Furthermore, Perez is injured, Penny is supposedly not injured but not convincing me, Weaver's top fastball is 87, and Erickson is Erickson. I'm comfortable with the Tiger/stripes assertion, and would like to see Jim Tracy recognize reality and deal with it for what it is, and not what he would wish it to be.