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Grading on a slight curve, Dodger rookie lefthander Derek Thompson has successfully navigated two starts. And it's that curve that's worth talking about this morning.
Thompson has lasted five innings in each, allowing two runs in one game and three runs in the other. He was not knocked out in either game, and in fact finished each start with a shutout inning. The reasons he left each game have been because he was due to go over 100 pitches in his sixth inning (95 pitches in game 1, 89 in game 2) and because his spot in the batting order happened to come up - each time with runners on base.
In other words, Thompson might have been able to get through one more inning on the mound, but it would not have been worth the risk to try under most circumstances, and certainly not with a scoring opportunity at hand. (Happily, pinch-hitter Mike Edwards delivered hits on both occasions.)
So there was every reason to be satisfied with Thompson's performances, though neither Thompson game was a quality start by the conventional definition - hence the curve. When your kid eats his veggies, you don't force seconds down his throat.
The downside of a pitcher throwing only five innings is that your bullpen is asked to throw nearly as many innings as your starter. But if this isn't occuring every day, it's hardly a problem. And in baseball, almost nothing occurs every day - that's the beauty of the game.
Meanwhile, the five-inning Thompson twins further illustrate the benefits of removing a questionable starting pitcher an inning early rather than an inning late. Yes, the Dodger bullpen sometimes bleeds like an ambushed Bonnie and Clyde and no, you wouldn't want to hit for Brad Penny in the fifth inning if he's cruising like it's PCH at 6 a.m. on a Sunday. The philosophy doesn't need to be taken to ridiculous extremes.
But, going into a game, if your starting pitcher's ERA is roughly the same as the middle relievers' ERA, by the time the sixth or seventh inning of a close game rolls around, fatigue is likely to have made your starter less effective than your middleman. Let me say this again: The starter who was a better pitcher than the reliever when the game began, who was a better pitcher than the reliever in the second, third, fourth and fifth innings, in most cases goes from better to worse as the game enters the final innings.
So the bargain you strike when you let that starter pitch in the late innings - trying to eke out another effective inning from the guy who has already thrown five to seven, trying to spare your bullpen an extra inning of work, is like blowing your bubble gum past its breaking point. Your starting pitcher might not make it through his next inning, you'll have to go to your bullpen anyway, and you're facing a larger deficit - one sticky mess. If you sacrificed a pinch-hitting opportunity in the process, call up Don Rickles so that he can add the perfect insult to your injury.
As in the case of Thompson, the Dodgers need to be aware of the point where each of their starting pitchers goes from more effective than less effective than their relievers. It's not a matter of knowing the future, but rather understanding the probabilities. And of course, it's not going to be the same for Derek Lowe as it is for Jeff Weaver, for Brad Penny as it is for Odalis Perez. But that point comes for everyone - and you have to make your move before it comes.
If Giovannni Carrara or Duaner Sanchez is going to allow a run in his appearance, better that he does it before a starting pitcher self-destructs. The cost of taking a starter too soon is cheaper than the cost of taking him out too late.
* * *
Update: All because I mentioned Don Rickles, people are sharing stories about Las Vegas in the comments. The stories about Vegas in the 70s made me think of my mother's father, Papa Erwin.
When I was eight years old, in 1976, Papa Erwin, who was a character out of a Damon Runyon story, got married at Circus Circus. (My mother's mother died in 1970). Seems to me that Circus Circus, by name alone, was the best hotel for a kid's first trip to Las Vegas. My memories, however, are really only of coming and going. We flew in from Los Angeles for the wedding, but my father had such a loathing for Las Vegas that he refused to stay the night, and we flew back the same evening.
My grandfather was a doctor theoretically, but the only thing anyone ever saw him practice was dealmaking. Something was always going on, and he never showed up at our house in the same automobile twice. It took about three years for my parents and aunt and uncle to sort out his estate after he died. (How did he die? A diabetic, he ate an entire strawberry shortcake one day in 1987 and went into a coma that he never came out of.)
When my mom was a girl, and it was my grandfather's turn to make her lunches, he would give my mom and her sisters Hershey bars, and they would trade for their lunch at school.
I can still hear Papa Erwin's voice, clear as the clearest day, whenever I think of him giving his idea of a French lesson. "Parlez-vous français? Chevrolet coupé?"
The fact that he's off to a good start is a good sign, but the real test is if he can make the necassary adjustments once the league figures him out.
I am very happy with Thompson's results to-date, but I have my reservations about his second time through the league (considering his youth and inexperience at the ML level). Probably best to stick him in the bullpen at that time. OP et. al. should be healthy by then.
Maybe Erickson can take his spot in the Jacksonville rotation...
bigcpa 2005-04-26 18:32:507
5th starter in waiting...
Derek Thompson AA
22ip, 31k, 6bb, 0hr, 4.09 ERA
Plus he wears a nifty shell necklace like Lowe
On the other hand Jerome Willimas of the Giants past and now with the Cubs also wears the pooka shell necklace and he has been having a hard time as of late.
Jon, you really hit the nail on the head. Better to pull the starter early and have Gio or Duaner give up a one run bomb than come in after Weaver/or the pitcher de jur has put two on and then caugh up the 3run shot.
I feel a tear forming.
Matt Herges joins the DBacks in exchange for career minor-leaguer Doug Devore.
Herges will just need to play for the Rockies to complete his tour of the NL West.
Absolutely. Thompson's job is to buy time, not to provide the Second Coming. If he can keep giving us some decent starts and keep the Dodgers in the game whenever he's out there, he'll have accomplished quite a lot for a AA pitcher from whom nothing much was expected (the prophecies of bigcpa notwithstanding).
Remember how fans were upset when Herges was traded for Mota? Remember? People loved Herges. Vin would gush about him and how he overcame difficulties and family problems. And how Todd Hollandsworth married Herges's sister (or some relative).
He will always be the greatest replacement player in Dodgers history. He's got to be better than Mike Busch.
The Thompson Twins?? Weren't they the only 80's band NOT on that cheesy reality TV show on NBC last night? As for the great Don Rickles, at over 80, he's still headlining in Vegas at the equally vintage, and soon to be demolished Stardust!
vr, Xei
Thank God (and Evans/Wallace/Tracy and Colborn) that despite all that, they never made Herges the closer here.
Here's hoping Perez can go a whole game without some sort of youngster mistake.
2004: 17.61% K; 9.50% BB/HB; 2.94% HR; 69.94% BIP
2005: 15.81% K; 8.15% BB/HB; 3.13% HR; 72.91% BIP
and the breakdown of balls in play:
2004: 21.90% 1B; 6.64% 2B/3B; 71.46% OUT
2005: 22.90% 1B; 7.43% 2B/3B; 69.67% OUT
Since I was evaluating the pitching, I ignored errors. Basically, anything not counted in another category was considered an out in play.
I expected to see a larger discrepancy in HR numbers (only 7%), but the two areas where we seem to be hurting the most are Ks and BIPs. We're striking out 10% less and about 10% more hits are falling in (due to the combination of more balls in play and a higher BABIP). For all the Dodgers who were on the 2004 and 2005 staffs, I also did individual breakdowns. I'll post those later.
There aren't too many replacement players left: Donnelly, Herges, Mahay (?), Millar (?)
vr, Xei
And - as I'm sure Dodger players check in here regularly - Jason, my deepest apologies :)
#31- I know Mike Hartley got traded for Roger McDowell in 91 and bounced around as a middle reliever for about 4-5 years with a few other teams. Neidlinger didn't make the team in 91, later went to other organizations (Padres??)but didn't make it past Spring Training, and never made it back to the majors.
He was great in Toy Story, though.
A few years back I was at a game and between innings on the Diamondvision they showed several Dodgers answering the same question. The question that night was,"Who's the best dressed Dodger?" The unanimous answer: Matt Herges. So he's got that going for him.
Has anyone noticed that Dave Roberts is sporting an OPS of 810 after 144 at bats. He's also helped solidify the Padre defense by running all night between Klesko and Giles. Nice to see Henri Stanley peforming so well for us. I mean Las Vegas. Not a deal that Depo should be proud of.
By the end of the month the Diamondbacks will have added the best player in the draft last year and the best player in the draft this year in Steven Drew and Justin Upton. To go along with Connor Jackson/Carlos Quentin they have some serious blue chips that they can move. Since these are all hitters the odds are higher that they will become impact players as oppossed to our pitching prospects who could easily all become suspects as pitching prospects tend to do. Throw in the steal of Halsey/Vazquez from the Yankee's and the FA signing of Troy Glaus and they can live with the mistake of Shawn Green. I think very quickly the West is going to go from an easy division to a strong division and we better hope that Depo is up to the task. His best move to date might have been moving Green to Arizona to clog up the recall of Quentin.
Daubach is from Belleville, Illinois, which has produced other great players like T.J. Matthews and Larry Stahl. Jimmy Connors too.
Is it true that the Mandalay Bay group actually owns the Las Vegas 51s and other minor league franchises?
P 2004: 16.26% K; 5.97% BB; 3.30% HR; 74.46% BIP
P 2005: 16.67% K; 5.21% BB; 3.13% HR; 75.00% BIP
W 2004: 16.36% K; 8.66% BB; 2.03% HR; 72.94% BIP
W 2005: 13.95% K; 7.48% BB; 3.74% HR; 74.83% BIP
And the breakdown of their Balls In Play is as follows:
P 2004: 19.45% 1B; 6.83% 2B/3B; 73.72% OUT
P 2005: 20.83% 1B; 5.56% 2B/3B; 73.61% OUT
W 2004: 21.26% 1B; 8.06% 2B/3B; 70.67% OUT
W 2005: 23.18% 1B; 9.09% 2B/3B; 67.73% OUT
I was surprised to see that Perez in 2005 is almost exactly the same as Perez in 2004. The inflated ERA is likely from hits being strung together at the wrong times. On the other hand, only allowing a .263 BABIP is partly luck, though he accomplished the feat last year as well. Thus, though he'll regress a bit as more hits fall in, overall he's still pitching very well.
Not that this is news, but Weaver in 2005 is distinctly worse than Weaver in 2004. He's striking out 15% less batters, giving up 85% more homeruns, and allowing hits to fall in 13% more often (by allowing a higher percentage of balls in play and a lower percentage of outs on balls in play). His only area of improvement is in walking 14% fewer batters. The gist is that Weaver's decline is just that. Hopefully, this is related to his "dead arm" phase, but if DePodesta could get something useful for him, he should probably consider it sooner rather than later. His rapid decline may be due to the fact that he threw almost 800 innings before his 26th birthday.
I won't type up the statistical breakdown for each pitcher (unless specifically requested), but here's my analysis:
Erickson as a 5th starter has been much worse than Lima (duh!). If he stays on the team when Dessens is brought up, I'll be stunned.
Brazoban is likely going to be better this year than last; his K-rate is up (23% vs. 20%) and his BB-rate is down (10% vs. 11%). His homerun rate is up (3% vs. 1.5%) but it's a very small sample size (2 in 133 BF in 2004 vs. 3 in 100 BF in 2005).
Sanchez has significantly improved his strikeout rate (17% vs 13%), while only slightly increasing his walk rate (11% vs. 10%), and keeping HRs constant (2.5%). Less of his balls in play are falling in, but a larger portion are going for extra bases. So far, 2005 has been a better year, but the two seasons will probably end up equivalent if his BABIP allowed regresses towards the mean.
Carrara hasn't been as bad as his ERA suggests. He's walking quite a few more batters this year (11% vs. 9%), but his K-rate is the same as last year, and he hasn't allowed a HR while facing over 100 batters. He's been getting hosed on balls in play, with only 59% turning into outs, which is mostly luck. He's probably a little worse than last year, but certainly not DFA material.
Alvarez, like Weaver, is having a bad year. His strikeouts (14% vs. 20%) are significantly down and batters are teeing off on him (7.5% HRs vs. 2.5% last year). Also, like Weaver, his walk rate is down (4% vs. 7%). Overall, he has been more effective in the bullpen, though I didn't breakdown the statistics that way. Hopefully, some R&R and moving back into a middle-relief role will get his numbers closer to last year. Otherwise, there's the distinct possibility that he's toast.
It's too early to make any definitive conclusions about Gagne, even with his decreased velocity. His K-rate is up (43% vs. 35%), his BB-rate is the same (8%) and his increased HR-rate is entirely due to the two he allowed his first day back from rehab (5.5% vs. 1.5%). On the other hand, he's pitched 8.1 innings this year vs. 81 last year, so anything can still happen. The early statistical returns are promising, even though the ERA doesn't show it.
Anybody remember Rickles in `Innocent Blood'? He was terrific in that.
NL West as of July 1st:
LA 43-33 -
SD 46-34 1.5
AZ 43-37 2.0
SF 34-43 9.5
This assumes:
LA 17-8 (5-2 vs SD)
SD 11-14 (9-9 vs non-LA)
AZ 13-13
SF 11-14
Then we trade for Chavez and I get a TEAM DEPO tattoo.
Supposedly during his rehab stint, Gagne stayed at the terminally hip Palms, home away from home to various NBA ballers, rappers, actors, Britneys and Hilton sisters.
The Circus Circus was indeed the place for kids in the late 60's. The entire upper deck just for us! When it first opened, they charged an admission to get in, if you can believe it. Nevada residents got in free.
Then went to the Ghost Bar. What a scene. Lot's of talent but too young (as in probably using fake ID young). If you want good looking women (and who doesn't) the Hard Rock is better.
Anyway, it was fun and I want to come back in my next life as a Maloof brother, but it pales next to places like the DI and there is no reason to go back. Going to Wynn's next month. Vegas in July! Nothing like it.
The Mandalay Entertainment Group that owns the 51s and a handful of other minor league teams isn't the same as the people who own the casinos.
Was at the Palms a couple of weeks ago, and saw George M. entertaining Paul Pierce and most of the Celtics in the casino. Those guys must have been on a plane west as soon as they got blown out of the playoffs. Most of the Kings, including Mike Bibby, were also there. Dennis Rodman, and his entourage were having a huge party at Rain.
Only baseball guy I saw in Vegas was poor Pete Rose, hawking his autograph to all takers at the Forum Shops.
Oh boy, my third Jeff Weaver game.
I hope I can stand the excitement. Perhaps I should give out my cellphone number so people can text me to tell me when Weaver should be pulled.
I think I just get 600 free messages a month.
Love all the Vegas stories.
Anyone been to Vegas to see the 51's? Thinking of going and looking for any pointers on best seats, how much, and so forth. When Guzman gets brought upto to AAA, a Dodgers Thoughts caravan to Vegas to welcome him would be pretty cool.
Last night, Chad Billingsley's line:
7 IP, 12 SO, 3 H, 1 ER
Oh and for the guy going to the Wynn.....vastly overrated hotel! It's a carbon copy of the Bellagio.
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