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About Jon
Thank You For Not ...

1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with

Babe Saenz
2005-06-16 16:14
by Jon Weisman
Note: The Dodger Thoughts blog has moved to the Los Angeles Times.

Tonight's Game

* * *

Olmedo Saenz has matched his at-bats total from 2004. In his Dodger career, he has 15 home runs in 222 at-bats.

He had eight home runs and one double last season; this year he has seven home runs and 10 doubles.

* * *

In his last start, Royals pitcher Zack Greinke allowed 217 runs before being removed from the game. Look for him to bounce back tonight.

Comments (272)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2005-06-16 16:32:41
1.   Blaine
Was Tracy moonlighting as the Royals manager?
2005-06-16 16:43:50
2.   Vic
"He had some zip on his fastball, he was making good pitches, and he told me he felt great -- I really wasn't concerned until about the 213th run."
2005-06-16 16:48:02
3.   Bob Timmermann
Sorry, put it in the wrong thread.

Random Dodger game callback

June 16, 1939

Before a crowd of 1,293 at Sportsman's Park in St. Louis, the Brooklyn
Dodgers spotted the Cardinals seven runs early and couldn't come all
the way back and lost 7-6. The loss dropped the Dodgers into fourth
place, 8 games behind leader Cincinnati and gave them a 25-24 record.

The Cardinals used a five-run sixth to take a 7-0 lead. Joe Medwick
and Don Padgett both slammed home runs off of Dodger starter Van
Lingle Mungo to knock him out of the box. Reliever Fred Fitzsimmons
gave up another run.

The Dodgers rallied against Cardinal starter Lon Warneke with single
runs in the seventh and eighth and then pushed across four against
reliever Curt Davis, but pinch hitter Lyn Lary struck out with the
tying run on second to end the game.

The big change for the Dodgers in 1939 was the installation of Leo
Durocher as player manager. Durocher replaced Burleigh Grimes as
manager after a disappointing 1938 season (when the Dodgers employed
Babe Ruth as a coach) and turned the team around after six straight
losing seasons. The 1939 team finished 84-69, which put them in third
place, 14 ½ games behind Cincinnati. It was the Dodgers best finish
since 1932.

First baseman Dolph Camilli was the hitting hero in Brooklyn in 1939.
Camilli slugged 26 home runs and drove in 104. He also led the NL in
walks (110) and strikeouts (107), an unusual combo in that era.

In midseason, the Dodgers picked up Tigers outfielder Dixie Walker on
waivers, who would be a standout hitter for the Dodgers through the
1947 season.

Brooklyn received a career year from lefthander Luke Hamlin, who won
20 games (against 13 losses) with a 3.64 ERA. Hamlin never won more
than 9 games in a season after 1939. Hugh Casey, would become one of
the Dodgers first relief stars, bounced between the bullpen and the
starting rotation and sported a 15-10 record with a 2.93 ERA.

The 1939 Dodgers also had one player who was a former star elsewhere
in New York, but soon headed for retirement. Tony Lazzeri, who played
for the Yankees for 12 seasons, played in 14 games for the 1939
Dodgers early in the season, before being released in May and moving
on to the Giants and eventually retirement. Lazzeri passed away
unexpectedly in 1946. The last member of the 1939 Dodgers to pass away
was catcher Ray Hayworth, who died on September 25, 2002 at the age of
98.

1939 would be Durocher's last year as a regular player. Normally a
weak hitter, Durocher batted .277, his second best mark for his
career. Durocher batted .247 in his career and hit just 24 home runs.
Durocher would eventually win 3 penannts as a manager, although only
one would come in Brooklyn. But with Durocher in charge, the Dodgers
went from being a bad joke to becoming a powerhouse in the National
League.

1939 was another momentous year for the mercurial Larry McPhail as he ran
the Dodgers. He took over right at the beginning of the 1938
season. McPhail was an aggressive promoter of the Dodgers. He hired
Red Barber away from Cincinnati to become the team's radio announcer
and also arranged for a game on August 26 to be televised from Ebbets
Field.

McPhail and Durocher would have a tempestuous relationship in which McPhail would "fire" Durocher many times (usually while drunk) only to rehire him in the morning. Durocher's tenure with the Dodgers would outlast McPhail's.

Thanks to the NY Times, BaseballReference.com and Retrosheet

2005-06-16 16:49:19
4.   Steve
Repko and Grabowski make this one scrappy starting outfield, indeed.
2005-06-16 16:51:54
5.   Bob Timmermann
There's an Alex Cora sighting tonight in Cleveland.
2005-06-16 16:58:26
6.   Bob Timmermann
Sorry for the weird line breaks, the document didn't fare well moving between computers.
2005-06-16 17:05:10
7.   Monterey Chris
Combined ERA over the last 7 days of Brazoban, Carrara, Gagne, Osario, Sanchez and Wunsch...0.00
2005-06-16 17:15:01
8.   Jon Weisman
Looks like it's going to be a low turnout here tonight ...
2005-06-16 17:17:39
9.   Bob Timmermann
Interleague play just doesn't pull as many people in as it used to.

Besides, everyone else is wrapped up in the thrilling NBA Finals. Three straight nail-biters!

2005-06-16 17:18:52
10.   Linkmeister
I'm here, despite all those remarks about Oahu being equivalent to San Diego.
2005-06-16 17:18:57
11.   joekings
there's an NBA game tonight?
2005-06-16 17:19:51
12.   joekings
10- I just came back from Oahu, Waikiki reminded me of the Vegas strip, without the casinos, but with the annoying people handing out leaflets.
2005-06-16 17:20:10
13.   alex 7
sure wish Choi was batting 5th, just for excitement's sake. Good feeling about Saenz though.
2005-06-16 17:20:23
14.   Jacob L
Yeah, I'm sure its got nothing to do with the way the series has gone so far.

Drew should have bunted those guys over.

2005-06-16 17:20:39
15.   joekings
Looks like my frustration is going to start early tonight.
2005-06-16 17:20:45
16.   Bob Timmermann
I've been told that the NBA is still playing although judging by the newspapers the NBA exists only in Los Angeles.

It's the only sports team we have out here.

2005-06-16 17:21:49
17.   joekings
My frustration has indeed started early tonight, I hope this is not a harbinger of things to come though I fear it is.
2005-06-16 17:22:22
18.   Bob Timmermann
Zero Olneys in that inning.
2005-06-16 17:22:34
19.   Jon Weisman
Gotta like when the LOB column for the individuals totals eight after the first inning.

How far was Choi's fly?

2005-06-16 17:22:52
20.   Nagman
That had the makings of an actual rally. How long since the last one? I can't remember.
2005-06-16 17:23:05
21.   joekings
I was sure the L.A. Times would put out a supplementary section to cover the hiring of Phil Jackson.
2005-06-16 17:23:05
22.   alex 7
joekings, your frustration's shared by us all, thereby reducing your amount no? : ) frustrating week. If Choi's 5th, as the R/L lineup construction would make you think, that's an rbi.
2005-06-16 17:24:03
23.   Bob Timmermann
According to the always accurate red dot on Gameday, Choi's fly ball didn't go particularly far.
2005-06-16 17:24:10
24.   joekings
I can't believe I was praying for a productive out. What have I become.
2005-06-16 17:24:28
25.   overkill94
This could be the worst series in Dodger history.
2005-06-16 17:24:38
26.   alex 7
KC's gonna show us how it's done.
2005-06-16 17:24:39
27.   Bob Timmermann
Bell is going to have the Royals bunt or steal now.
2005-06-16 17:25:22
28.   bokonon42
If there'd only been one out, Choi's fly would have gotten Perez gunned down at the plate.
2005-06-16 17:25:37
29.   alex 7
overkill, glimmer of hope that an ugly win here inspires DePo to wait no longer.
2005-06-16 17:27:18
30.   joekings
If the Royals score here I might just cry.
2005-06-16 17:27:20
31.   Bob Timmermann
Why would a sweep by the Royals be the worst series in Dodgers history?

I think losing two games to the Giants in 1997 including the Brian (evil Stanford guy) Johnson walkoff homer was pretty bad.

The 1969 Dodgers were in contention in the NL West and got swept in a 4-game series in San Diego in September by a team that lost 110 games.

2005-06-16 17:27:42
32.   alex 7
burst my gameday bubble bokonon : )
2005-06-16 17:28:52
33.   joekings
Hey, it's a productive out.
2005-06-16 17:29:35
34.   Bob Timmermann
Royals have an Olney and a run!
2005-06-16 17:30:30
35.   alex 7
Is our ERA above or below 9.00 in the first two innings the last week?
2005-06-16 17:33:14
36.   Bob Timmermann
Don't walk Long! We don't want to face Shane (Lou Gehrig) Costa!
2005-06-16 17:33:57
37.   bokonon42
That foul ball, on the other hand, could've scored Phillips from second.
2005-06-16 17:34:51
38.   Bob Timmermann
Just like the end of the 2003 Division Series between the Red Sox and A's.
2005-06-16 17:35:01
39.   Brian Y
why does it seem that Steiner always says the wrong player names when talking about our team. He's been here long enough to know their names!!!
2005-06-16 17:35:42
40.   overkill94
Bob, obviously I was exaggerating, but it really would be depressing to get swept by the team with the worst record in the majors when every pitching match-up seemed like a mismatch.
2005-06-16 17:36:17
41.   Bob Timmermann
1st inning in Minnesota
Twins starter Joe Mays threw 4 pitches.
Giants starter Brett Tomko threw 42.

Twins are up 4-0.

2005-06-16 17:36:24
42.   Jacob L
39 - They're not on the back of the jersey.
2005-06-16 17:41:59
43.   Langhorne
Did Grabowski swing at an 3-0 pitch?
2005-06-16 17:42:02
44.   alex 7
Edwards and Repko are going to give us quite a bench when starters heal up.
2005-06-16 17:44:22
45.   joekings
44 - but will it even matter by then?
2005-06-16 17:53:09
46.   brendan glynn
Can we change the name to Suns Thoughts? much more interesting. can't wait until spring training next year. Repko, Grabs, Perez, Edwards, Werth? Not a shock having trouble scoring. Bradley needs to get back soon.
2005-06-16 17:53:50
47.   joekings
This is looking familiar.
2005-06-16 17:54:04
48.   Marty
Another chance to pad the LOB stats!
2005-06-16 17:54:15
49.   Marty
But I'm not bitter...
2005-06-16 17:55:59
50.   alex 7
no one's running away with it joekings, so hopefully it helps out a little. In fact, you can make the arguement that they're helping right now, unlike the Giants who sank as soon as their stars were injured.

Not that our second level guys are winning games, but they're at least above average in different aspects of the game. Repko will be a heck of a defensive replacement and pinch runner, Edwards and Ledee will solidify our hitting off the bench. Should be the case for the next few years as well.

Would anyone mind if we got a solid #3 starter for Izturis, or packaged him for Dunn, plugged Perez at SS, and platooned Valentin and Saenz at 3rd?

Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2005-06-16 17:58:42
51.   alex 7
Kent would make a heck of a #2 hitter with Dunn in the lineup. Line drive / fly ball hitter with pop, walks plenty. Not that Tracy would want him there, but still.
2005-06-16 18:02:25
52.   Vishal
does choi swing at EVERY pitch now? when was his last walk?
2005-06-16 18:02:40
53.   alex 7
fantasy guys who picked up Choi after his 6 HR binge will be discarding him come tomorrow.
2005-06-16 18:02:43
54.   joekings
Good thing we made the third basemen pay for letting that foul ball drop.
2005-06-16 18:02:50
55.   Brian Y
I wish we would put Choi back in the 2 spot where he excelled. I know it wont happen in our next game since we face Buehrle either. FUDGE!!
2005-06-16 18:04:23
56.   Eric L
Maybe Teahan let that fly ball drop because his mind was on the earthquake. I believe he is from Yucaipa.
2005-06-16 18:05:28
57.   Brian Y
I just wish our team was healthy this year. I would have loved to see what a healthy Odalis, Weaver, Penny, Gagne, Alvarez, Bradley, Izzy, Valentin, Perez, Werth, Grabs, Dessens, etc could have done. I don't think they have all been healthy at the same time at any point this season!
2005-06-16 18:08:50
58.   overkill94
Rotoworld has been saying all along how Choi needs to stay in the 2 spot because for whatever reason that's where he excels. Who cares if he keeps hitting a bunch of solo homers, at least he's knocking in himself.
2005-06-16 18:09:55
59.   molokai
Choi hits 6 home runs batting 2nd in 3 days and Tracy moves him down in the order. My memory tells me that Choi has had two hot streaks this year and both came when batting 2nd. I don't think I've seen him get a hit any other place in the order.
Where is our Bonderman?
2005-06-16 18:12:05
60.   Jim Hitchcock
Dr. Strangeglove or: How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Wait For THe Bomb.
2005-06-16 18:12:20
61.   Vishal
i don't know why you put kent and saenz right next to each other anyway. why not kent-choi-saenz batting 4-5-6
2005-06-16 18:12:26
62.   Jim Hitchcock
Wow...
2005-06-16 18:12:45
63.   molokai
I hear the isle of Molokai is really the place to visit if your going to Hawaii:)
2005-06-16 18:13:49
64.   Vishal
SF and minnesota are now tied 4-4
2005-06-16 18:16:34
65.   Vishal
#59

he just got demoted to jacksonville.

2005-06-16 18:18:34
66.   Linkmeister
Molokai only has one hotel, as I recall, and transportation to the island is less frequent than to the others. It's a very quiet place.
2005-06-16 18:19:55
67.   oldbear
I must be the only Dodger fan that actually likes Grabowski. The guy has power, and is willing to take pitches.

Way to go Grabs. 4th of the year.

3-2 Blue.

2005-06-16 18:21:24
68.   Brian Y
I'm a big fan of Maui. Oahu specifically Waikiki is very overrated and crackhead homeless people line the streets. Much like where I live here in Vegas :-)
2005-06-16 18:22:18
69.   Brian Y
#67 I like him now too. Now hopefully we can trade him!
2005-06-16 18:23:55
70.   Linkmeister
Parts of Maui look like any over-malled part of the Mainland, but there are other spots.

I haven't been into Waikiki for years, mostly because of parking shortages. There's plenty else to see on Oahu, though.

Anybody headed over here, gimme a call; we'll go watch a Dodgers game on the tube somewhere.

2005-06-16 18:24:46
71.   Vishal
i call another solo homer for choi next inning.
2005-06-16 18:26:11
72.   Bob Timmermann
#56
Perhaps Teahen was very attached to a can of peas that fell off a shelf in a grocery store.
2005-06-16 18:27:04
73.   Bob Timmermann
I just got home and I'm wondering:

Is the scoreboard graphic new? Or am I just imagining things?

2005-06-16 18:28:34
74.   Jim Hitchcock
Looks the same to me. How 'bout the rest of you guys :)
2005-06-16 18:29:30
75.   Icaros
I tried to leave everything the way I found it this afternoon, Bob, but I may have changed your scoreboard graphic.
2005-06-16 18:32:03
76.   Bob Timmermann
Why is my cat painted green?
2005-06-16 18:32:19
77.   Langhorne
The graphics are new. When Grabs hit his HR they ran a banner across the top of the screen that read, "Grabowski-Two Run Homer" just in case the humble viewer didn't understand what was happening.
2005-06-16 18:32:39
78.   Brian Y
On a side note: Joel Guzman is now batting 7th for Jax, LaRoche is hitting cleanup and is 1-4 a 2B so far with 2k's. Guzman has 3k's
2005-06-16 18:33:15
79.   Vishal
okay, so much for my powers of premonition. i thought i felt a homer coming on.
2005-06-16 18:35:04
80.   Linkmeister
Yeah, it's new. Threw me off for a minute too.
2005-06-16 18:36:01
81.   Brian Y
Another interesting story: Columbus has hit 8HR's so far in their game with Travis Denker hitting 3 of them and DeWitt, Hoffman, Carter, Bruce, Apodaca hitting the others.
2005-06-16 18:36:28
82.   Bob Timmermann
I wonder if the Angels will get a red version.
2005-06-16 18:36:57
83.   Brian Y
Should I talk about how Choi NEVER hits the ball hard and inside outs the ball every time again to get him back on track?
2005-06-16 18:38:25
84.   Bob Timmermann
Tuning around, they're color-coded.
The Braves-Reds game on FSN Ohio has ATL in blue and CIN in Red.
On FSN Bay Area, the Giants are in orange and the Twins are in Blue.

And in Minnesota, the umpires just made the Giants third base coach, Gene Glynn, stand in the coaching box.

2005-06-16 18:39:30
85.   Icaros
83 - Talk about how he never walks and always swings early in the count, then thank the savior that is Tim Wallach.
2005-06-16 18:39:34
86.   Langhorne
I keep expecting Greinke's mom to come onto the field and drag him off by the ear.

"Zack, you know you're supposed to be home when the streetlights come on!"

"But ma, I'm pitchin'"

2005-06-16 18:41:57
87.   Brian Y
#85 well that's true but by him swinging early in the count is when he actually can generate some power. I don't think he has hit a HR off a 2 strike count this year. Anyone wanna check on that?
2005-06-16 18:42:30
88.   Brian Y
#86 LOL he does look young, doesnt he?
2005-06-16 18:45:09
89.   Bob Timmermann
I count four homers for Choi with 2 strikes on him.
2005-06-16 18:46:04
90.   Bob Timmermann
Choi has at least one home run on all possible counts except 2-1 and 3-0.
2005-06-16 18:46:31
91.   Brian Y
Thank you Bob. See, I'm good for Choi because everytime I think I have him figured out and have him pegged, he ends up screwing up any preconceived notions I had.
2005-06-16 18:47:44
92.   Bob Timmermann
Choi has not made an out on a 3-0 count. He has only walked.
2005-06-16 18:50:20
93.   Vishal
i'm sure he never swings 3-0
2005-06-16 18:51:06
94.   Bob Timmermann
Not counting today, Choi is batting 462/481/962 when hitting the first pitch.
2005-06-16 18:54:23
95.   Blue in SF
On a more positive note, was there a better free agent pitcher signing in the offseason than Lowe (taking into account the amount spent and age factors, which eliminates Pedro)?
2005-06-16 18:54:35
96.   Vishal
when hitting it or every at-bat when he merely swings at the first pitch?

if it's already put into play, then how could his OBP be 20 points higher than his batting average?

2005-06-16 18:55:49
97.   Blue in SF
ok, jinx. Sorry.
2005-06-16 18:57:36
98.   scareduck
I hate this team.
2005-06-16 18:57:52
99.   Vishal
that was a fielding error. not lowe's fault.
2005-06-16 18:58:11
100.   Linkmeister
That sure didn't look like a really hard play at short, unless there was a funny hop.
Show/Hide Comments 101-150
2005-06-16 18:59:39
101.   Vic
95 -- Matt Clement.
2005-06-16 19:00:07
102.   Bob Timmermann
Sometimes Choi gets hit by the pitch so the OBP makes sense.
2005-06-16 19:00:12
103.   joekings
this is where lowe falls apart.
2005-06-16 19:00:31
104.   scareduck
And did I mention I hate this team?
2005-06-16 19:00:55
105.   Bob Timmermann
Lew Ford hit a 3-run homer to put the Twins back ahead 7-6.
2005-06-16 19:01:24
106.   Steve
Left is right. Up is down.

Which meant that maybe Derek Lowe could give us a decent start. But no.

2005-06-16 19:01:32
107.   Blue in SF
101 - oh yeah.

To add insult to injury, I just realized Sweeney is on the bench.

2005-06-16 19:02:11
108.   scareduck
We are at war with Eastasia. We have always been at war with Eastasia.
2005-06-16 19:02:28
109.   joekings
right on cue.
2005-06-16 19:03:43
110.   joekings
defense is so overrated.
2005-06-16 19:03:44
111.   overkill94
I think I'm going to vomit
2005-06-16 19:03:49
112.   scareduck
We are at war with Derek Lowe. We have always been at war with Derek Lowe.
2005-06-16 19:03:56
113.   Vishal
yeah, clement's contract is better, for just about the same quality of pitcher.
2005-06-16 19:04:54
114.   gvette
Looks like it's time to watch the basketball game, or even worse, talk to my wife and family.
2005-06-16 19:05:01
115.   Steve
Something tells me all these base hits will be conveniently forgotten by the "Defend Derek Lowe" Police.

On the other hand, Jason Grabowski is making an excellent argument for me to shut my damn mouth regarding his abilities, or alleged lack of same.

2005-06-16 19:05:50
116.   joekings
He should have pulled him as soon as Perez made that error, you knew Lowe wasn't going to be able to let it go.
2005-06-16 19:06:07
117.   Blue in SF
In other news, Minnesota just took the lead on a 3 run shot by Lew Ford. Looks like AL Central could run the table again tonight...
2005-06-16 19:06:13
118.   Dodgerkid
Jon are we still on track to be the worst pitching Dodger team ever?
2005-06-16 19:07:17
119.   Vic
115 -- frightening, isn't it?

And I'd hazard to say that over the course of his contract, Clement will be a much more dominant pitcher than Lowe.

2005-06-16 19:07:57
120.   Steve
Rob and I are going to fight sometime this season over who hates this team more.
2005-06-16 19:08:46
121.   joekings
And I can't even watch the Angels get caught cheating tonight.
2005-06-16 19:09:11
122.   Jim Hitchcock
Looks like I picked a really bad day to stop smoking vegimite.
2005-06-16 19:10:37
123.   joekings
i think it's time for me to go see "Manos" The Hands of Fate
2005-06-16 19:11:58
124.   Steve
119 -- there's an error, and all of a sudden the pitcher has license to explode right there on the mound, give up twenty runs, and it's all someone else's fault. I can already pre-quote Tracy:

"You give extra outs to that other team, and they'll make you pay for it. Yadda, yadda, yadda"

Never mind that the other team is the Kansas City Royals, or that a guy making $9 million a year ought give up slightly fewer runners than DJ Houlton.

2005-06-16 19:12:20
125.   Bob Timmermann
The 1894 team had a team ERA of 5.51 and gave an additional 2 unearned runs per game to boot!

That staff surrendered over 1000 runs.

But pretty much everybody did that year.

2005-06-16 19:13:13
126.   Bob Timmermann
And I got home to find out that Icaros jammed up my kitchen sink and they're overrun with odd colored fluids.
2005-06-16 19:13:42
127.   Bob Timmermann
111,

I've got cleaner for that!

2005-06-16 19:14:00
128.   Steve
But they were all unearned, so his ERA will remain ever glamourous.

And those of you thinking about the basketball game, that game sucks too.

2005-06-16 19:14:55
129.   Jim Hitchcock
Wait till you see your cat glow in the dark, Bob.
2005-06-16 19:15:38
130.   Dodgerkid
pinch runner now!
2005-06-16 19:16:43
131.   Bob Timmermann
The 1929 Dodgers had a 4.92 ERA if you're looking for a more modern team.

The 1958 Dodgers were 4.47. I believe that's the LA high.

2005-06-16 19:17:30
132.   Dodgerkid
Bob have you seen Rainman?
2005-06-16 19:18:51
133.   Bob Timmermann
Gee, thanks for the compliment!
2005-06-16 19:19:17
134.   scareduck
C'mon, Steve, let's get it on, right now. I hate this team more than --

- being forced to listen to the upcoming XM all David Hasselhoff station
- watching a beauty pageant featuring Imelda Marcos
- watching a beauty pageant featuring John Kruk
- haggis

2005-06-16 19:20:11
135.   Steve
Lowe's BB/K

2003: 72:110
2004: 71:105
2005: 17:65

One of those numbers is not like the other, one of those numbers isn't the same...

2005-06-16 19:20:59
136.   Dodgerkid
Bob I'm just joshing you.
2005-06-16 19:22:09
137.   Bob Timmermann
I figured as much, Kid. Don't worry.

Besides, I fly airlines other than Qantas!

2005-06-16 19:23:21
138.   Bob Timmermann
Either it's the weird stuff in my sink giving off an odor or I have a feeling that Erickson might be warming up.
2005-06-16 19:24:45
139.   Marty
Man. I go to the dog park and decide to not listen to the game, so I can give them "luck". I come back and it's a blow-out. Should I blame the dogs on the field, or the dogs in my back yard?
2005-06-16 19:24:46
140.   Steve
I hate this team more than:

--Nora Ephron movies
--Cable companies
--Con Law professors who oppose the judicial filibuster when Clinton is President, but support it when Bush is President
--Reality Television

I was going to do a post over at my place which was a list of my favorite Dodgers in order. I hate this team so much, I think Jason Grabowski is in the Top 10 of my favorite Dodgers, ahead of at least every pitcher on the staff.

2005-06-16 19:26:08
141.   Dodgerkid
Why is this man still on the team?
2005-06-16 19:26:18
142.   joekings
We got us a good old fashioned blow out going here.
2005-06-16 19:26:39
143.   Gen3Blue
It was bound to happen-- when you assemble a ground ball pitching staff you have to have a good infield. I admit injuries have contributed, but you can't replace fielders like Isturus and Nakamura with guys like Perez and Sienz.
But when your staff sets an alltime record for getting behind in the first inning, sooner or later your offense will all choke. Guys like Kent and Drew will take walks with men on second and third---and poor Almiedo will strand six men in two at bats. But at least our payroll is under control and we've got some talent coming up.
2005-06-16 19:26:45
144.   Dodgerkid
He is either wife swapping with DePodesta, or has incriminating photos of DePodesta, it defies logic that this man is on the team.
2005-06-16 19:27:00
145.   Steve
In fact, we're close to getting to the point where this team is Tracy-proof. Much like if the parents blow up the house before going on vacation, their kids can't hold parties in it on the weekends.
2005-06-16 19:28:02
146.   Bob Timmermann
Erickson is on the team to give us someone to focus our dislike on.

Soon Erickson will take on mythic significance and occupy a high place in the pantheon of hated Dodgers.

Can you have a pantheon of people you hate?

2005-06-16 19:28:10
147.   Marty
Please don't get anyone out Scott.
2005-06-16 19:28:20
148.   Gen3Blue
It was bound to happen-- when you assemble a ground ball pitching staff you have to have a good infield. I admit injuries have contributed, but you can't replace fielders like Isturus and Nakamura with guys like Perez and Sienz.
But when your staff sets an alltime record for getting behind in the first inning, sooner or later your offense will all choke. Guys like Kent and Drew will take walks with men on second and third---and poor Almiedo will strand six men in two at bats. But at least our payroll is under control and we've got some talent coming up.
2005-06-16 19:28:32
149.   Steve
You have to admit, if he's going to come in, a 9-3 game is a pretty good time for it to happen.
2005-06-16 19:29:11
150.   Mark
140 - I dislike this team more than:

- Drivers who don't use their turn signals.
- Running out of juice while talking on the cellphone.
- Dorothy Lucey.
- 404 errors.

Show/Hide Comments 151-200
2005-06-16 19:29:28
151.   Steve
Who's rooting for the kid here? Shall we make it two?
2005-06-16 19:29:57
152.   Bob Timmermann
Scott Erickson

Smokejumper

2005-06-16 19:30:22
153.   Dodgerkid
I think a few days ago I passed into Bizarro dimension where I am surrounded by evil clones of everyone, most of whom have funny goatees and mustaches. Where is the portal back? This can be the only explanation why Erickson is on the team, because in the real world he would be coaching at Cal State Dominguez Hills.
2005-06-16 19:31:20
154.   Steve
TEAHEN! THAT MONEYBALL BASTARD!
2005-06-16 19:31:32
155.   scareduck
NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO!!!!!!!!!!

Dammit, Erickson, you're supposed to fail gracelessly and make the difference 192-3 so you can be fired.

2005-06-16 19:33:55
156.   Mark
Erickson, like Grabowski before him, just cemented his place on the roster like an industrial-strength epoxy.
2005-06-16 19:34:01
157.   Steve
The world is a dark place.
2005-06-16 19:35:13
158.   Bob Timmermann
Cal State Dominguez Hills! The school that gave major league baseball Craig Grebeck!
2005-06-16 19:35:28
159.   joekings
At least we're not devil ray fans.
2005-06-16 19:35:55
160.   scareduck
The meeting of the Los Angeles Dodgers Hemlock and Noose Society will now come to order...
2005-06-16 19:36:23
161.   Steve
I don't even want to say who Antonio Perez is starting to remind me of. It's too horrible to even consider the possibility.
2005-06-16 19:36:30
162.   scareduck
Please, is there a way we can blame this on Frank? Pretty please?
2005-06-16 19:38:41
163.   joekings
Erickson is going to put the Royals down 1-2-3 to make my evening complete.
2005-06-16 19:39:04
164.   Steve
Spending too much money on crap?
2005-06-16 19:40:12
165.   Steve
163 -- How about 3-0 to the backup catcher?
2005-06-16 19:41:50
166.   joekings
Well at least some things never change, like Erickson's abilities.
2005-06-16 19:42:30
167.   Steve
Teahen! Outrageous. Billy Beane sucks.
2005-06-16 19:43:28
168.   scareduck
Say, Steve, that reminds me of something. There is such a thing as the Ex-Cub Factor for determining the outcome of a World Series. Is it not possible that, the Devil Rays being a far worse franchise (despite the glaring lack of a curse), that there should be such a thing as an ex-Devil Ray Factor? And shouldn't Antonio Perez be its leading representative?

Lynch 'im, boys. It's time.

2005-06-16 19:45:37
169.   Steve
Jose Offerman.
2005-06-16 19:45:53
170.   scareduck
I don't think I've ever hoped for an opposing batter to hit a grand slam as much as I'm hoping for Stairs to get one out of the park now.
2005-06-16 19:46:00
171.   Bob Timmermann
I actually think Castillo may have stepped on home before Phillips tagged him, but since the throw got their about 5 minutes before he arrived, he had to be called out.
2005-06-16 19:46:34
172.   Bob Timmermann
Steve has now summoned the name of Beelezebub!
2005-06-16 19:46:36
173.   scareduck
Un. Believable.
2005-06-16 19:46:51
174.   Steve
I can't believe this. It's like they are not only trying to lose, but they are deliberately irritating me.
2005-06-16 19:47:13
175.   joekings
171-It looked like that to me too, umpire probably just wants to go home.
2005-06-16 19:49:02
176.   Bob Timmermann
On the replay, Phillips had the plate blocked and Castilo was out.
2005-06-16 19:49:43
177.   joekings
i wonder if tracy will bunt drew over.
2005-06-16 19:52:14
178.   brendan glynn
i'm calling 9-8 final right now.
2005-06-16 19:52:22
179.   scareduck
They're toying with us. Watch, an unassisted triple play is about to happen.
2005-06-16 19:52:43
180.   Langhorne
Is Steiner watching the game? Does he think that Kent is standing at first base?
2005-06-16 19:52:58
181.   brendan glynn
I called that at 9-3 as well
2005-06-16 19:53:20
182.   Steve
At least he didn't kill the rally with a homerun.
2005-06-16 19:53:20
183.   LAT
I dunno Bob I using Tivo I froze it and Castilo had his foot on the plate before Phillips applied the tag. The ball was so early that Phillips made no effort and Castilo got in there.
2005-06-16 19:53:45
184.   Langhorne
I guess so since he just said Kent scored.
2005-06-16 19:54:01
185.   brendan glynn
#180

no he is man crushing on Ichiro.

2005-06-16 19:55:59
186.   Bob Timmermann
I've been told that Ichiro's throwing arm is overrated. He did make that good throw in his first US game, but Repko's arm seems a lot better from my view.
2005-06-16 19:56:55
187.   Bob Timmermann
Productive out!
2005-06-16 19:57:01
188.   brendan glynn
bring in McDougal. I want another shot at that "closer".
2005-06-16 19:57:17
189.   brendan glynn
Ughhh
2005-06-16 19:57:49
190.   joekings
How long did they work on that graphic.
2005-06-16 19:58:11
191.   Steve
Perez/Offerman will get down that bunt next time!
2005-06-16 19:58:21
192.   brendan glynn
Well, no reading the newspaper or watching tv sports news for another day. Great
2005-06-16 19:58:33
193.   LAT
"It might be an interesting race between Phillips and Olmedo with his bad foot." Any such race would require a calendar rather than a stop watch.
2005-06-16 19:59:33
194.   scareduck
Anyone want to do their pre-press conference imitation of Jim Tracy?
2005-06-16 20:01:05
195.   Langhorne
I'm going to wonder all night if Steiner knows that Robles PH for Kent. That'll probably the highlight of Oscar's career. Oh well, at least I got my laundry done.
2005-06-16 20:02:53
196.   Steve
"Derek Lowe had really good stuff and his pitch count was right in line. You just can't give Major League teams extra outs, or they will make you pay for it. Our guys are getting the results, but if the team can't convert them, we are going to have a hard time winning ball games."
2005-06-16 20:06:10
197.   Steve
Which might lead some other enterprising reporter to ask why other teams' errors don't often lead to five run innings.

But then Tracy will be on to talking about how excited he is that Elmer Dessens is back.

2005-06-16 20:20:21
198.   Bob Timmermann
I switch to the NBA Finals and it's 78-58 in the fourth quarter.

Regardless of who is playing and the cirumstances, that's got to be an ugly game to watch.

2005-06-16 20:52:02
199.   champion of choi
I am boycotting this crappy team until further notice.

They are a total embarassment to all of loyal fans that hang on their every game.

I bet we take it harder than they do (no pun intended).

Oh yeah, I too hate this "team"

2005-06-16 21:12:17
200.   Fearing Blue
Tuesday was frustrating, last night was depressing, and tonight was embarassing.
Show/Hide Comments 201-250
2005-06-16 21:44:56
201.   mph
Bob T--I know Craig Grebeck's cousin. He's a good friend of my folks. I'm from his hometown, Johnstown, PA. (Also home to Pete Vuckovich, Bill James' "worst pitcher ever to win the Cy Young.")
2005-06-16 21:55:00
202.   LAT
We got swept by the worst team in baseball. Most of us would have bet the farm against that happening. I guess it is equally unlikely that we could turn around and sweep the best team in baseball. Given the recent propensity for the unexpected I will adopt the "glass half full" view. . .at least until tomorrow night.

Notwithstanding the monster performance this weekend, I would prefer to see Choi a little more consistent instead of vacillating between white hot and ice cold.

2005-06-16 21:58:53
203.   mph
Anyway, enough with the Dodgers. Tomorrow night is Burt Rutan Bobblehead Night at the Jethawks game, and we're in the front row.
2005-06-16 22:05:23
204.   godvls
Anyway, enough with the Dodgers. Tomorrow the Sun Devils open the College World Series against Nebraska. It's been seven long years since ASU has been to Omaha. Go Devils!
2005-06-17 06:51:41
205.   Colorado Blue
I only saw bits-and-pieces of last night's nightmare... never saw Erickson pitch; did I read correctly??? He threw 20 pitches, 7 for strikes? That ought to be good for another month on the roster.
2005-06-17 07:21:38
206.   Steve
Tracy:

"It's a real shame our starting pitcher had to absorb that, because he made nothing but quality pitches to get us out of the inning."

Yeah, that was the idea.

2005-06-17 08:15:26
207.   Fearing Blue
This Dodgers are currently missing the following players due to injuries:

Third Starter (Odalis Perez)
Closer (Eric Gagne)
Primary Swing-man (Wilson Alvarez)
Centerfielder (Milton Bradley)
Shortstop (Cesar Izturis)
Primary Thirdbaseman (Jose Valentin)
Fourth Outfielder (Ricky Ledee)
Backup Catcher (Paul Bako)

This stinks.

2005-06-17 08:27:28
208.   Sam DC
The Legendary (TM) Thomas Boswell poses this question in his WashPost online chat, which I feel honor bound to pass on to the smart baseball folks I know (note -- his typos):

"I hope every saw Cordero's Fall Down Pitch. Tripped in the middle of his delivery, threw the ball straight down. It bounced five feet in front of the MOUND. Not five feet in front of the plate, but the mound, and bounced about 45 feet STRAIGHT OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE PLATE.

Question for your guys (because Justice wasn't sure either): If Guerrero had hit that one-hop cricket-style pitch over the fence for a two-run homer, would the Angels have won, 2-1. What's the rule on a bounced pitch? I assume it's a legit pitch. But I've never seen anybodyt hit one in play. Thanks for an answer."

2005-06-17 08:35:41
209.   Marty
I'd heard before that Yogi Berra was famous for hitting pitches that bounced first.
2005-06-17 08:42:23
210.   Steve
That's a live pitch, I believe.
2005-06-17 08:43:17
211.   db1022
Just like if you swing and miss at a pitch in the dirt. Ball is live.
2005-06-17 08:46:56
212.   db1022
Q. How long are you given to swing at a pitch?

ex. With 2 strikes, and a pitcher uncorks one of those Nuke Laloosh, pitch at the mascot's head pitches. Couldnt' the batter have a feeble hack at it, and then jog to first base on a mishandled swinging 3rd strike?

2005-06-17 08:51:28
213.   Sam DC
Someone on the chat just weighed in and said that the ball is live, but is necessarily a ball if Guerrero watches it go by, even if it passes through the zone.

Steve -- just want to say that skimming comments this morning I saw your potential openness to rethinking on Grabowski (something about shutting your damn mouth . . . ). Very impressed by that -- for a hard hitting no-holds-barred critic-type, I've never doubted that you want the Dodgers to win, want those who frustrate you to do better, and are happy to acknowledge it when they do. Distinguishes you from a lot of others who would raise the "Fire [whoever]" banner and charge into battle.

2005-06-17 08:55:04
214.   db1022
#213 - I think we are seeing what Depodesta always saw in Grabowski, now that he's getting consistent AB's. He's obviously just not comfortable pinch hitting. Could be a good pickup for an AL team looking for a lefty DH-type. I think he's a waste on this team though, especially when Ledee comes back.
2005-06-17 09:01:43
215.   gvette
#207 Every team has injuries, ask the Giants playing without Bonds, Benitez and an effective Schmidt. Both the Padres and the D-Backs have lost key players on the DL so far this season.

Injuries have nothing to do with "professional hitter" Saenz twice leaving the bases loaded, A. Perez making an error, or Lowe unable to get over that error.

2005-06-17 09:08:57
216.   Steve
I really want people to shut my damn mouth. Though I'm concerned that we're simply getting Grabowski's "Good Two Weeks" here. He had them last year too.

Plus, the rest of the team is so depressing, any little glimmer of hope will do. By the way, where did Wunsch go?

And finally, if you haven't had enough good news today:

"Derek Thompson has some elbow tenderness," Tracy said. "So he's obviously not the choice to pitch on Saturday."

So one more person goes on the list ahead of Scott Erickson.

2005-06-17 09:10:19
217.   Fearing Blue
#215: I don't think the Giants have a shot either, because of all their injuries. In baseball, it's often the healthiest team that wins, not necessarily the best. So far, the healthiest teams in the NL West have been the Padres and the Diamondbacks.
2005-06-17 09:11:28
218.   dzzrtRatt
#214 but wouldn't the Dodgers be better off keeping Grabowski around now to fill in for injured players we seem unable to avoid having? The outfield has survived the injury plague better than the infield or pitching staff have.

I shudder to think where this team would be if we hadn't picked up Bradley, Werth and Grabowski in what seemed like two weeks in March '04. They have helped bridge what would have otherwise been a serious gap between established major leaguers and the rising group in Jacksonville. The damage wrought by Kevin Malone's administration still hurts us now.

Nonetheless, to paraphrase Winston Churchill, the Dodgers woke up this morning in a pennant race, and the Royals's season is still ugly.

2005-06-17 09:14:32
219.   Sam DC
214, 216 -- Just so I'm clear, my comment wasn't based on Grabowski actually being long term good. Just commenting on the commenting.

Now, on tonight. Everyone ready for DJ "stopper" Houlton v. Mark Buehrle?

2005-06-17 09:18:01
220.   db1022
#218 - When the OF gets healthy (I assume Ledee will be back shortly, followed by Milton) I think Grabowski is expendable. He has only shown to be productive when he gets 15-20 at bats a week, not 4 or 5. I think the Ledee/Repko is enough depth in the OF.
2005-06-17 09:19:32
221.   Fearing Blue
#217: Here are the current DLs for the Padres and the Diamondbacks:

Padres:

Second basemad (Mark Loretta)
Fifth starter / waiver material (Tim Redding)
Fourth outfielder (Freddy Guzman)
Backup infielder (Eric Young)
Anonymous reliever (Miguel Ascencio)

Diamondbacks:

Closer (Brandon Lyon)
LOOGY (Oscar Villareal)
Fourth outfielder (Luis Terrero)
Backup infielder (Jerry Gil)

2005-06-17 09:22:19
222.   Fearing Blue
#220: We'd probably have a better shot of trading Ledee than Grabowski, since Ledee is a "proven veteran". I don't know many teams who would trade for Grabowski, a 29-year old backup outfielder with ~250 major-league ABs.
2005-06-17 09:24:15
223.   Steve
The other problem here is that Werth is becoming useless too.
2005-06-17 09:25:58
224.   db1022
#222 - I was thinking more of a Dave Roberts-type deal, just to clear a roster space, not get something dynamic in return.

Small sample sizes and all, Grabowski hits better as a regular (obviously, since his pinch hitting stats really test the definition of "hitting"). Send him to a team that needs a little lefty balance out of the DH slot.

2005-06-17 09:26:50
225.   db1022
#223 - We're getting Adam Dunn. Didn't you hear?
2005-06-17 09:30:10
226.   Bob Timmermann
People in that chat on the Post are unfamiliar with the rules of baseball. I suppose that 34 years is a long time.

Rule 2.00 - Definitions

A BALL is a pitch which does not enter the strike zone in flight and is not struck at by the batter. If the pitch touches the ground and bounces through the strike zone it is a "ball." If such a pitch touches the batter, he shall be awarded first base. If the batter swings at such a pitch after two strikes, the ball cannot be caught, for the purposes of Rule 6.05 (c) and 6.09 (b). If the batter hits such a pitch, the ensuing action shall be the same as if he hit the ball in flight.

(Emphasis mine)

2005-06-17 09:31:51
227.   gvette
#221 Both Greene and Roberts also spent time on the DL, and Peavy may go there with his finger problem.

Like I said before, the fact that players are on the DL doesn't excuse the poor performance by guys like Saenz, and Lowe last night. There's a reason that guys like Saenz, Edwards, Grabowski,Carrara,Carlysle, and Rose spent years in the minors, with limited shots at the big leagues.

While one or two may prove to be "diamonds in the rough", you can't stock your roster full of these guys and give them considerable playing time without consequences.

2005-06-17 09:36:50
228.   Steve
What is this saying?

"If the batter swings at such a pitch after two strikes, the ball cannot be caught, for the purposes of Rule 6.05 (c) and 6.09 (b)." Does it mean that the out must be made at first even if the catcher "catches" the ball?

2005-06-17 09:39:11
229.   fanerman91
Off topic thought (fits better in the Guzman/LaRoche thread but that's more or less dead)..

Somebody sometime ago (I think, could just be my own thought) mentioned that moving to Las Vegas was a bad move because it inflated hitters' stats and deflated pitchers' confidence. Would it be difficult to move out or get a new AAA stadium? I don't know if this is a good idea or not, but perhaps something similar to Dodger Stadium. Something that kills doubles and triples but is good for home runs. Perhaps it would give the front office better predictive information about players.

I was just thinking about how most of our minor league depth is just coming up and wondering how people would do in AAA. It seems like a lot of pitchers may be better off spending as little time in AAA as possible. Going from AA to the bigs seems like a big jump.

Anyway, just random thoughts while sitting here at work on a Friday.

2005-06-17 09:40:54
230.   Bob Timmermann
#228,
Yes, any pitch that bounces and becomes a strike is not "caught" and the batter has to be retired at first (unless it's the situation where he doesn't.)
2005-06-17 09:42:33
231.   fanerman91
By the way, something more in topic, I seem to recall a video of Ichiro in the Japan leagues getting a hit off a ball that bounced a few feet in front of the plate.
2005-06-17 09:47:57
232.   Landonkk
Our lineup should be:
C Phillips
1B Choi / Saenz
2B Kent
3B Valentin
SS Izzy
LF Werth
CF Bradley
RF Drew

Rotation
Penny
Lowe
Perez
Weaver
Houlton / Thompson / Dessens / Alvarez

Closer
Gagne

When 7 players of those 15 spots are on the DL or day to day, and you also have your 4th OFer and backup catcher hurt, guys like Edwards, Grabowski, Rose, and A. Perez HAVE to see time. Nobody is using the DL as an excuse for lastnight, but in the long run it is killing us.

2005-06-17 09:56:48
233.   Fearing Blue
#227/232: DePodesta brought career minor-leaguers into the organization for depth in case of emergencies. It's unfortunate that we have to have all of them in the lineup at the same time. That doesn't excuse them playing poorly, but it's hard to be frustrated with Mike Edwards because he's not Alex Rodriguez. I'm not sure how much more we could have expected from third string backups. The only teams who do better with these types of injury issues are ones that already have depth at the AAA level, which unfortunately, we do not (thanks Kevin!).
2005-06-17 10:03:13
234.   Steve
The choice is between deal or die. This team will not win as constituted. I am not so sure I don't support die, but I could be convinced by deals as well.
2005-06-17 10:12:02
235.   dzzrtRatt
#234--The Dodgers don't just have attractive prospects; they have an overwhelming number of attractive prospects. We could deal off several of them and, I gather, still have the best farm system in baseball and lots of opportunities for improvement in the next few years. I don't know who's untouchable, and whatever the Dodgers might say is probably hype to inflate trade value. But I think we are in a rare circumstance in which we can afford to win today and win tomorrow as well. We've got two futures to mortgage; we can mortgage one of them and keep the other.
2005-06-17 10:17:50
236.   Bob Timmermann
Right now:

30-year fixed - 5.20% with a 5.36% APR
15-year fixed - 4.82% and 5.07%
5-year adjustable - 4.61% and 5.61%

2005-06-17 10:22:33
237.   gvette
Obviously Izturis, and Bradley are irreplaceable in this lineup, and you hope that Brazoban can perform like he did in April during Gagne's absence.

But,it's dicey to project that players in decline like Alvarez or Valentin would have performed at a high level, but for their injuries, or that Dessens is anything more than he is, an average swingman.

If you stock your team with guys like Mike Edwards, you have to live with the fact that he has no range at 3B , despite his offensive ability, when your starting pitchers give up a lot of groundballs.

Bottom line- IF Werth is your future in LF, you don't give his at bats to Repko or Grabowski.

Bottom, Bottom line- DePo needs to deal to get this team going.

2005-06-17 10:28:18
238.   Fearing Blue
#237: Here's the comparison of the Padres DL time vs. the Dodgers DL time this season. Feel free to draw any conclusion you would like.

Padres Total DL time = 210+ days (6 stints)
Pitchers:
Woody Williams - 32 days (1 stint)
Tim Redding - 40+ days (1 stint)
Hitters:
Mark Loretta - 25+ days (1 stint)
Khalil Greene - 23 days (1 stint)
Dave Roberts - 15 days (1 stint)
Geoff Blum - 18 days (1 stint)
Freddy Guzman - 75+ days (1 stint)

Dodgers Total DL Time = 467+ days (15 stints)
Pitchers:
Brad Penny - 19 days (1 stint)
Odalis Perez - 34+ days (1 stint)
Eric Gagne - 43+ days (2 stints)
Wilson Alvarez - 46+ days (2 stints)
Elmer Dessens - 52 days (1 stint)
Darren Dreifort - 75+ days (1 stint)
Hitters:
Milton Bradley - 19+ days (1 stint)
Jose Valentin - 45+ days (1 stint)
Jayson Werth - 41 days (1 stint)
Antonio Perez - 38 days (1 stint)
Ricky Ledee - 13+ days (1 stint)
Jason Grabowski - 21 days (1 stint)
Paul Bako - 21+ days (1 stint)

2005-06-17 10:32:13
239.   Fearing Blue
#238: You could remove Freddy Guzman and Darren Dreifort from the numbers, since they are both out for the season and the numbers would be as follows:

Padres DL Time = 135 days
Dodgers DL Time = 392 days
Dodgers DL Time = 290% Padres DL Time

I realize that straight DL time is not an accurate metric. What would be most accurate is to do estimated VORP lost, but I haven't gotten there yet. Though, I think it's pretty apparent, even without the calculation that the Dodgers would be significantly winning that DL-battle as well.

2005-06-17 10:33:00
240.   Steve
So, is Adam Dunn going to get to Chicago in time to play tonight, or will we see him in the lineup tomorrow?
2005-06-17 10:33:16
241.   Fearing Blue
#238: Oops. the Padres Total DL Time is 7 stints. I forgot how to count in the process of pulling all of this data :).
2005-06-17 10:34:18
242.   fanerman91
#239,

I was just gonna say "somebody should multiply the days lost with the player's VORP to get some VORP lost" or something. Of course you'd have to subtract it the VORP the replacements gave to get the "delta VORP."

2005-06-17 10:34:26
243.   Fearing Blue
#240: If only it were true. Even knowing you, Steve, I still went to check ESPN to make sure.
2005-06-17 10:38:01
244.   Steve
I didn't start it! Blame #225.

You're not even including Weaver's "Dead arm" period or Wilson's never should have come off the DL in the first place period.

2005-06-17 10:39:33
245.   Fearing Blue
#242: Yeah, I thought about subtracting the true replacement player value. If you're trying to compare the impacts of injuries between teams, I don't think I would do the subtraction. If you're trying to figure out how much better off the team would be without injuries, I would do the subtraction. If my son takes a good nap this afternoon, I may get to it :).
2005-06-17 10:40:43
246.   Fearing Blue
#244: Well, I knew #225 wasn't true, because db wants to trade our entire farm system for him :).
2005-06-17 10:43:57
247.   Steve
By the way, I'm thinking of taking the kids and going to see Orem play the Ogden Raptors next week. Anyone I should look out for? You scary guys who know so much about our farm system?
2005-06-17 10:50:01
248.   gvette
So the Dodgers got swept in KC this week because Darrin Dreifort was on the DL all season? Wow.
2005-06-17 10:50:56
249.   fanerman91
#248,

See post #249.

2005-06-17 10:52:28
250.   fanerman91
Oops. I mean #239. Oi.
Show/Hide Comments 251-300
2005-06-17 10:54:35
251.   Steve
Yeah, whether you get Darren Dreifort's or Duaner Sanchez's crappy slider three times a week wouldn't seem to matter much.
2005-06-17 10:56:01
252.   gvette
So the Dodgers got swept in KC this week because Elmer Dessens was on the DL most of the season? Wow.
2005-06-17 10:58:16
253.   fanerman91
#252,

See #232:
Nobody is using the DL as an excuse for lastnight, but in the long run it is killing us.

Except change last night to the last 3 games.

2005-06-17 10:58:17
254.   db1022
#246 - Ha ha ha. Not necessarily the "entire farm system", just 3 guys. One each from the group of hitters, pitchers, and catchers. Take their pick.

I posed this previously but didn't get the stimulating dialogue I was looking for - is there a more desired player in the bigs (or in the minors for that matter) than Adam Dunn, according to what we know about Paul Depodesta?

2005-06-17 10:59:17
255.   db1022
#250 - Whew, I almost got caught in your infinite loop there.

Wash, rinse, repeat. Wash, rinse, repeat. Wash, rinse...

2005-06-17 10:59:42
256.   fanerman91
#252,

Also take note of our VORP discussions to see how much "value" we've actually been missing.

2005-06-17 11:03:09
257.   fanerman91
#255 - Darn. Hope I'd get someone to spend 5 hours reading the same 2 lines over and over again.
2005-06-17 11:53:00
258.   fanerman91
Hmm... Where'd everybody go?

#254,
No, I don't think there's anybody that fits the mold as well as Dunn. Though Dunn's defense isn't that great, but it's probably not that big a deal in LF.

Are the Reds really willing to part with him? How much would we have to give up? I don't know much about the Reds so I don't know their needs or wants.

Would he want to come to LA and stay in LA? No point in getting him as just a hired gun.

2005-06-17 12:02:02
259.   Bob Timmermann
I believe his big leather chair is a sticking point in the negotiations.
2005-06-17 13:18:49
260.   Fearing Blue
Ok.. here is the VORP based version of the Dodgers / Padres DL analysis.

For each player, the format is the estimated number of games missed * the estimated VORP rate / game = the total VORP lost. For the estimated number of games missed, I took an educated guess based on the total number of games missed (i.e. starting pitchers / long relievers = games / 5, closer = games / 2, etc.). For the VORP rate, I used a weighted average of Baseball Prospectus projections (3x) and current VORP rate (1x), unless there wasn't enough data from this season (Dessens and Young), in which cased I just used the BP projection. Any VORP rates that turned out negative (Redding and Blum) I rounded up to 0. If anyone would like to suggest a better method, please do; it would be easy to recalculate. Here are the results:

Brad Penny: 3 * 0.788 = 2.364
Odalis Perez: 5 * 0.848 = 4.24
Eric Gagne: 19 * 0.429 = 8.151
Wilson Alvarez: 8 * 0.628 = 5.024
Elmer Dessens: 9 * 0.336 = 3.024
Darren Dreifort: 0 * 0 = 0
Dodgers Pitchers = 22.803
Milton Bradley: 17 * 0.229 = 3.893
Jose Valentin: 26 * 0.176 = 4.576
Jayson Werth: 30 * 0.148 = 4.44
Antonio Perez: 17 * 0.31 = 5.27
Ricky Ledee: 4 * 0.155 = 0.62
Jason Grabowski: 3 * 0.079 = 0.237
Paul Bako: 4 * 0.015 = 0.06
Dodgers Hitters = 19.096
Dodgers Total = 41.889

Woody Williams: 6 * 0.719 = 4.314
Tim Redding: 6 * 0 = 0
Padres Pitchers = 4.314
Mark Loretta: 25 * 0.264 = 6.6
Khalil Greene: 21 * 0.23 = 4.83
Dave Roberts: 9 * 0.145 = 1.305
Geoff Blum: 3 * 0 = 0
Eric Young: 12 * 0.117 = 1.404
Freddy Guzman: 4 * 0.052 = 0.208
Padres Hitters = 14.347
Padres Total = 18.661

The conclusion is that the Dodgers injuries have cost them about 2.5 wins (1 win = 10 runs) more than the Padres injuries. Coincindentally (or not), that is also the current difference in the standings.

2005-06-17 13:21:39
261.   Fearing Blue
#252: Personally, I'd say the sweep had a lot more to do with the injuries to Milton Bradley, Cesar Izturis, and Jose Valentin; but, feel free to draw your own conclusions if you think Dessens and Dreifort were the missing pieces.
2005-06-17 13:33:19
262.   fanerman91
Fearing Blue,

If you got nothing better to do, wouldn't hurt to find out both our and the Padre's net loss (the "delta VORP"). Only if you have nothing better to do though.

2005-06-17 13:39:56
263.   Jon Weisman
Fearing - that's great stuff. Thanks.
2005-06-17 13:45:21
264.   the OZ
Fearing, good work.

The only suggestion I might make, since VORP is a positionally-adjusted statistic, is to use MLVr instead of VORP rate, to get a real lineup value instead of a positionally-adjusted one for a real apples-to-apples comparison.

The current one isn't so far off that it's apples-to-oranges (maybe apples-to-pears is more accurate), but I'd be curious to see the MLVr equivalent.

2005-06-17 14:16:58
265.   gvette
#261 Jose Valentin???
2005-06-17 14:19:57
266.   Fearing Blue
#264: Here are the total based on MLVr for the position players:

Dodgers MLV lost: 0.11
Padres MLV lost: -.85

I'm not sure what this means though. It certainly underestimates the impact of losing players on the right end of the defensive spectrum.

2005-06-17 14:21:59
267.   Fearing Blue
#265: Indeed. Jose Valentin was projected to be a very useful left side of a 3B platoon. Since we faced three right-handed pitchers, I'd say he would have played at least 2 out of 3, if not all 3.
2005-06-17 14:25:07
268.   Fearing Blue
#262: I thought about that, but it's very subjective and a ton of work. The problem is determining what statistics to count for a replacement player. For instance, who is currently taking Valentin's ABs? And once you decide who, you'd really have to look at game-by-game information for the period the person was on the DL.
2005-06-17 14:52:02
269.   everett
re: needing to do game-by-game substitutions...

not that I really object, but if tracy wasn't so lineup match up happy stats like this would be easier to do :)

2005-06-17 15:10:43
270.   the OZ
266 -

MLVr is basically the number of marginal runs a player adds or subtracts per game without respect to their positional baselines. For example, Jeff Kent's MLVr wouldn't change if he moved to RF, but his VORP rate would decrease because RF has a higher positional baseline than 2B.

But you're right about the defensive spectrum; unfortunately, neither VORP or MLV take defense into account, so a totally separate analysis would be needed to figure that out anyway.

Maybe I'll do a MLVr x Games analysis like yours and post in the other thread since you've done so much work already.

2005-06-17 16:07:32
271.   Fearing Blue
#270: I wasn't even referring to the defensive impact. What I meant was that VORP is more useful, because it takes into account the real effect of the injury. For instance, you can't replace an injured SS with a slugging DH. Nonetheless, here are the individual number for the MLV for the Dodgers and Padres. It has the same format as above, but the second number is the average MLVr instead of VORPr.

Milton Bradley: 17 * 0.106 = 1.802
Jose Valentin: 26 * -0.057 = -1.482
Jayson Werth: 30 * 0.014 = 0.42
Antonio Perez: 17 * 0.032 = 0.544
Ricky Ledee: 4 * -0.036 = -0.144
Jason Grabowski: 3 * -0.076 = -0.228
Paul Bako: 4 * -0.201 = -0.804
Dodgers Hitters = 0.108

Mark Loretta: 25 * 0.065 = 1.625
Khalil Greene: 21 * -0.002 = -0.042
Dave Roberts: 9 * -0.029 = -0.261
Geoff Blum: 3 * -0.169 = -0.507
Eric Young: 12 * -0.079 = -0.948
Freddy Guzman: 4 * -0.178 = -0.712
Padres Hitters = -0.845

2005-06-17 16:12:59
272.   the OZ
OK, I did an analysis like the one described above. What's interesing is that the "Run Loss" is largely tied up in our hurt pitchers more than anything else.

These three numbers are the weighted (50/50) MLVr of our injured hitters vs Padre injured hitters, "worst" case, and "best" case, using 2005 Projections against actual 2005 results.

LA 0.314 7.312 -4.45

SD -1.1895 1.006 -4.045

As hitters go, we've lost between 0 and 6 more runs to injury than the Padres have at the plate.

There's nothing really notable here, except to back up the theory that injured pitchers have hurt the Dodgers far more, at least in Spreadsheetville, than our injured hitters. I think we could have grasped that intuitively, but Fearing's work helps prove the idea that pitching injuries are the biggest reason we trail SD right now.

However, the "10 runs = 1 win" applies to a whole season's worth of baseball and we're yet to the halfway point. At this stage, it can be argued that because of pro-rating, 4-5 runs = 1 win. As such, a net loss of 25 runs could be used to explain more than 2.5 games of difference in the standings.

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