Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
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1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
Before I start talking about the Dodgers, I want to spend a moment in the Padres' sandals. They had a chance to bury the Dodgers, 8 1/2 games deep in the National League West. They let it get away. Will they take this as demoralizing? Or will this just be a blip for them?
I guess history will decide. Chemistry or no chemistry. Faint or strong of heart. It's always discovered in the autopsy, isn't it?
As for the guys in blue ...
Not to gross anyone out here, but there was an episode of Hill Street Blues in which public defender Joyce Davenport was representing a survivalist. He asked her, hypothetically, how she would stay alive in if her car ever broke down deep in the desert. Her reply was something along the lines of 1) sleep in the shade of her car's undercarriage during the day and walk only at night, to avoid sunburn and energy depletion, and 2) to provide herself with sustaining fluids, capture her own urine in a container.
The survivalist immediately asked Joyce to marry him.
I'm guessing you know where I'm going with this. Over the past 24 hours, the Dodgers have been surviving not on champagne, but another kind of bubbly altogether. And they'll travel through cover of darkness, toward home, much in need of a Velamint but otherwise enduring for at least one more day.
The thing is, they are drinking of themselves ... even though there's a fresh bottle of water or two right in front of them.
My Dad hated the Dodgers' trade with Florida last July. Didn't like it then, doesn't like it now. Thought Hee Seop Choi was worthless then, and doesn't have much higher of an opinion of him today.
Even he is stunned by what Jim Tracy is doing with Choi.
What are the arguments for playing Jason Phillips at first base today instead of Choi? Phillips' nifty defensive experience at the position? His history of mashing right-handed pitching?
No matter. Tracy will come up with some explanation. None of this will change his obvious hostility toward giving the team's most frequent home run hitter any serious playing time.
I'm putting this sentence in bold: Choi is a flawed player. We get it, okay?
But on the 2005 Dodgers, who isn't?
The manager who supposedly aims to puts Choi in a position to succeed has saved him to hit against Padres closer Trevor Hoffman and lefty reliever Chris Hammond, while sitting him against league-average righthanders like Woody Williams and Brian Lawrence.
In four games against the division leader, Choi had only seven at-bats. And yes, he went 0 for 7. But does that make him a worse bet than Jason Grabowski or Jason Repko? One week, Choi goes hitless. The next week, he hits seven homers in four days. Out here in the Mojave, Jim Tracy should not be turning his nose up at bottled Choi.
I swear, it makes me laugh now how transparent this all is.
Just in passing, we are also presented today with the latest fun-for-all bunt attempt. Down by three runs with six outs remaining, with a leadoff hitter who has grounded into 30 double plays in 2,230 career plate appearances, Cesar Izturis bunts.
In 2,230 career plate appearances to that point, Izturis had grounded into 30 double plays. And it's not like he's been a leadoff hitter all that time.
There's more to discuss, but I'm short of time.
Look, the Dodgers don't have a stellar crew out there these days. This seems mostly the fault of injuries, along with Paul DePodesta perhaps coming a player or so short in his offseason makeover of the team, since most of the moves to construct the current roster have turned out favorably.
DePodesta has his job to do - making sure that Derek Thompson, who provided three critical innings of shutout relief in his latest yeoman peformance - stays on the roster and Scott Erickson goes, for openers.
But Tracy has got to get out of the funk he is in. Because as resistant as I am to conspiracy theories, this one by Dodger Thoughts commenter GoBears is starting to seem bizarrely viable.
I imagine a sick game of chicken between Depo and Tracy. JT is daring Depo to fire him by deliberately minimizing the team's chances of winning. Depo is waiting for the media to turn on JT so that the firing is not seen as "unfair." Meanwhile, the team circles the bowl...
If Jim Tracy had made a habit in previous years of having leadoff hitters bunting while down by three in the eighth inning, and regularly benching one of his top power hitters, I think I would have remembered.
Update: Can I just say that despite the above complaints, winning feels so much better than losing.
Update 2: Steve Henson writes in the Times that Tracy disavowed Izturis' bunt ...
Izturis popped up trying to bunt for a hit something Tracy told him wasn't smart with the team down three runs and the runners advanced on Mike Edwards' groundout.
... and that Choi sat against Brian Lawrence today because of Lawrence's "repertoire of pitches he throws and his arm angles."
And ... Bill Shaikin has an entire feature exploring Tracy and Mike Scioscia's use of the bunt!
"The one thing that does get overlooked is to assume that, by putting the bunt on, it's going to be successful," DePodesta said. "That's not nearly the case. In those situations, you give up an out and don't advance the baserunner."
Under that standard, the Dodgers' execution has been poor this season. Click's analysis reveals a bunt play succeeds runner moves up, batter out about 60% of the time. The play fails runner out, batter safe at first about 25% of the time, with such outcomes as errors and double plays accounting for the other 15%.
The Angels have succeeded at a 75% rate last season and 72% this season, but the Dodgers have fallen from 77% to 57%. They rank sixth in the National League in attempts but 13th in successes.
But even DePodesta, who has not emphasized bunting ability in assembling his roster, does not discount the value of the sacrifice.
"If I play my home games in Coors Field, I'm probably not going to be doing a whole lot of bunting," he said. "If I play my home games in Petco Park or Dodger Stadium, it's probably going to be a more valuable tool."
Jim Tracy: He Hate Hee
The other aspect of this that I can't believe won't eventually play into it: Los Angeles has more Koreans living here than anywhere on the planet, except Korea. There is a Korean media, members of which I'm sure are accredited to cover Dodger games. The Korean community knows how to make a fuss as much as any ethnic community in town. When are they going to start calling McCourt and his PR guru Bob Sitrick to ask whether Tracy's problems with Choi go beyond baseball?
One other question remains, and I'm serious about this. Who has more pull in the Dodgers front office? Yes, most GM's have the power to hire and fire most anyone, including the manager, and have the power to control player moves and the general direction of the team. But look to the NFL, where at least a third of the head coaches are basically the boss, and the GM is below him. Is it possible that McCourt is so fond of JT that Depo is left being his little bitch? I can't imagine Depo staying on board for even a day under that scheme, but at this point, if it came out that Tracy has been admitted to a mental hospital or was possessed by demons, I'm not sure I'd be all that surprised.
He's not a difference maker, but he would give us some desperately needed depth, which could be enough to turn this division. Here are my points in favor of him:
1) He's a positive defender who can play all three outfield positions.
2) He's a left-handed batter with on-base ability, speed, and a little pop. He can platoon with Jayson Werth and fill in when Bradley / Drew are injured, which would be a huge upgrade over Lerepkwardski.
3) He shouldn't require a very large prospect outlay, since he'll be a FA after the season.
4) His MLVr (Marginal Lineup Value Rate) of .170 would rank 6th on our team behind Saenz, Perez, Kent, Drew, and Bradley.
I love It! Good stuff again Jon
Someone I know who went through a desert survival course for the Air Force told me that the current idea is that once you find yourself stranded is to drink as much of your water as you can before you go walking anywhere so you don't have to carry it around outside of you.
I believe J.T. despises DePo and his Ivy League theories. DePo and J.T. are polar opposites at best. J.T. has played the game, and seems to be old school fundamentally. DePo just the opposite.
I believe J.T. is still bitter over the drastic roster changes that DePo has made since taking over. LoDuca was J.T.'s guy.
J.T.'s way of getting back at DePo is not playing Choi at all.
SSSJ - just to reiterate, the game of chicken wasn't my theory, but that of GoBears.
Also, if Tracy really hated DePo, what's Grabowski doing out there all the time?
This theory is not working for me. Tracy must have a thing against Choi himself, not as a proxy for DePo.
I will ask Moises Alou this question.
Kevin Costner's character in "Waterworld" lives on his own urine which he runs through a distiller to take it out the impurities. He'd have nothing left.
And apparently that distilling machine can't take the salt out of the ocean water, but can make his urine taste like fresh water.
I really need to stop looking for plot holes in "Waterworld".
To give you a frame of reference on MLVr, Bradley is currently at .185 MLVr for the season. Putting up a .170 MLVr is very good. Lawton and Ledee are both playing above their mean BP projections. But, those projections gave Lawton a much better chance to exceed his projection and the projections still have Lawton ~.1 MLVr higher than Ledee.
Ditto everyone else that's been suggested for the past month. The price on Roy Oswalt would be astronomical, for example. The chances that we will overpay for a less-than-impactful player are pretty high.
Pretty soon we will see Robles getting spot starts at first.
If you can prove this is what and why Tracy's sitting Choi, then I'd say fire him on GP.
Maybe, despite statistical evidence to the contrary, Tracy simply isn't as comfortable with Choi's skill set as those who post on this site. It's not the first time that a manager lacks confidence in a young player, and won't be the last.
Ironically, you might see Tracy bunt less now that Edwards finally got one down. Once the first twenty failed, he had to get one for Plaschkers to point to in their next columns and Harold Reynolds to talk about on Baseball Tonight. It's likely even the great Steve Henson will turn rapturous prose tomorrow over it. Tracy will have his next ten years of uncritical goodwill in the bank, and move on from there.
If Tracy's moves are out of spite, in any way, toward any person, he should be fired immediately. He's not a professional. If he doesn't think Choi is good enough to play I can accept that. I have doubts about Choi, too. But with the injuries and lack of depth on the team right now we don't have the luxury of sitting Choi in favor of Rose or Robles. That is the definition of mismanagement.
Huh. Lots of TV movies I've never heard of.
Personally I'm completely mystified by Tracy's personnel management. Choi should go see Hamel's agent; at least she's continually getting work.
The discussion of Choi brings to mind Kenny Landreaux: For two months every year he'd turn into Ted Williams, but to get those two months you'd have to put up with him for the other four.
On the other hand, I really hope that sometime in his ML career Thompson gets a win, just so he won't have to go through life cursing Erickson for blowing his best chance at one.
I remember thinking at the time, either Tracy can't pronounce Choi's name or he doesn't like HSC. Looks like it's the second.
By the way Hee-Suck is at a .315oba clip.
Sound familiar?
Come on guys. I don't know why Tracy doesn't use Choi, but like Tracy or not he has been a stand-up man since we have been watching him. Tanking the team is not something he would do. Even if it were, he is too boring to think of it. Moreover, he knew what he was getting when he resigned. He knew Choi was going to be an integral part of Depo's plan for the next three years. Furthermore, for reasons I can't follow, Tracy likes some of Depo's other projects (read: Grabs and Werth). So I doubt its about Depo. If Tracy were intentionally undermining the team he would be drummed out of baseball faster than people run on Jason Phillips. Look, none of us know why he won't give Choi a shot and it would be nice if any of the gutless reporters for the Times asked him. But he is not committing professional suicide to spite Choi or Depo.
Stop reciting Vic-The-Brick biases and start thinking.
His first five years with the Dodgers he had an OBP under .300. Then in 1989 in 69 games, he puts up a .387 OBP playing as the prototype for Jason Grabowski (lefthanded OF-1B-PH).
And in 1990 he gets traded to Houston for a guy named Terry Wells.
But I wonder why he was traded? Were the Dodgers so sure that Eddie Murray was going to have a better year in 1990 than 1989? He did, but I seem to have forgotten just why Franklin got sent packing.
Odd how that works.
I got the exquisite pleasure of reading a 16-year old Plaschke story about the Dodgers problems. He said the 1990 Astros were going to be improved because they added Bill Gullickson and Ken Oberkfell.
He briefly mentioned that the Reds improved by adding Randy Myers.
Plaschke advocated making Mike Munoz the closer in 1990.
Tracy for whatever reason feels the Dodger's have a better chance to win with the lineup he uses based on the talent he has. It is that simple and any other theory is poppycock and an insult to JT's integrity. He may be an idiot these days but to think there is an ulterior motive should be left for talk shows and not this site. JMO
You need to be more specific. Especially when it comes to the 1980s and 1990s
Jose Gonzalez was 20 for 93 in 1986. 3 for 16 in 1987 and 2 for 24 in 1988. But in 1989 he was 70 for 261.
He eventually got traded to Pittsburgh for ...
Mitch Webster
The Dodgers were thinking of making him Steve Sax's replacement at second base in 1989, but instead the Dodgers signed Willie Randolph. But he wasn't the first or second choice. The first choice was Ron Oester and Wally Backman was the second option.
Oester wanted to stay in Cincinnati and the Dodgers wouldn't trade Braulio Castillo for Backman.
Since Franklin liked to swing at everything, I suppose it was hard for Maddux to develop a strategy for pitching to him.
I would direct you to a very good book entitled "The Devil's Highway" (2004) by Luis Urrea (no pun, I swear). Not only is it an exellent description of the current problem of immigrants crossing the dangerous US desert border but it also has a passage that describes what happens when you drink your own urine.
Urrea describes about seven stages of colors that you go through as more and more of the water is absorbed and eventually what liquid you have left is dark brown to black. Then you go into hyperthermia and cook alive.
Also 26, I don't think that's the Veronica Hamel we were thinking of. Her TV-ography does not list ANY Hill Street Blues appearances. And she would be 63 now.
Now back to baseball...
Stubbs did hit 20+ HRs one year for the Dodgers, which makes him better than Jose Gonzalez, Billy Ashley, Braulio Castillo,and Karim Garcia, but on a par with Greg Brock.
You'll run out.
Not that I really believe the conspiracy theory that I invented and Jon quoted, but see, LAT's response kinda makes my point. I don't think that anything would be professional suicide for JT, unless he admitted that he was tanking. I think that if the Dodgers fire him, he'll get another job immediately. Maybe, the best job of all from his perspective - Cincy. He's got a good enough reputation, somewhat deserved, that unless he's caught red-handed disrespecting the game (which would make him unhireable for about a year), he'd land on his feet.
Do I really believe he's trying to lose? No. But I believe that he's very stubborn, and determined to win or lose his way.
The same thing happened with Choi last year. He played quite a bit for a while, then less and less, and then not at all. For whatever reason, I think Tracy hates Choi as a player. In a sense, I'm impressed that he's ballsy enough to bench him so soon after that Homer-fest he produced only 2 weeks ago.
If Tracy can't get it across to Izturis that he shouldn't be bunting there, particularly when Izturis just did the same thing last week with the same destructive results, then I fail to see why Tracy is of any use at all.
Or he could just be hanging Izturis out to dry.
The other big problem of "Waterworld" is that even if the polar ice caps melt completely there wouldn't be enough water to cover just about all of the land on earth.
Granted, I wouldn't want to own beachfront property in that eventuality.
Dodgers.com: "He came in this morning and said he felt 'sexy' and we went from there," manager Jim Tracy said of Saenz...
Joe Morgan -- I mean Maddon:
"Oakland's pitching allowed that concept to work. The Big Three allowed that concept to work."
One guess as to the Major League leader in Team ERA in 2005. Go ahead. Guess. It's a hard one.
So...dishonest...it...should...be...criminal
Sacrifices in 2005:
Colorado 34
Los Angeles 26
San Diego 25
The Texas Rangers have 2.
HIRE BUCK SHOWALTER!
* General Manager Paul DePodesta met with Tracy after the game, but emerged without a decision on whether to shore up the bench by calling up outfielder Cody Ross from triple A and sending down a pitcher, either Franquelis Osoria or Derek Thompson.
Another option would be to release veteran Scott Erickson, but there was no indication that would happen today.*
Hmmmmm........
Hmmmmm........
Would DePodesta release Erickson if I promised to drink my own urine in front of him?
The Rangers are also last in Sacrifice Flies. They just don't have productive outs in Texas.
The two sacrifices are from Rod Barajas and Mark DeRosa.
The Rangers are also third in the majors in runs scored.
You could bet that you could drink your urine up to seven times in a row. Maybe you could get DePo to DFA somebody different every time: Erickson, Grabowski, Robles, Repko, and Choi (just kidding!!)
To further the small ball hatred, the number of runs that the White Sox have produced because of small ball that wouldn't have scored otherwise: 15.
Showalter's Yankees team always had at least 20 sacrifices.
One year his Diamondbacks team had 71!
I can't find the totals for any Japanese team on an English language source. Those figures would make Steve vomit.
How is that total for the White Sox calculated?
But how can you say the run wouldn't have scored without a bunt or stolen base? Are you just assuming that every other event in the inning would have happened in the exact same way? If so, that's a big assumption.
If the White Sox give up an out, that means that there is one fewer batter who has a chance to come up and get an extra base hit or home run.
https://dodgerthoughts.baseballtoaster.com/archives/10706
From looking up all of these stats, I learned that the White Sox benifit from extremly timely hitting.
As for Choi last year--he sucked. He showed up under difficult circumstance but failed to produce and failed badly. JT was justified last year. This year Choi has shown his value. For some reason JT just doesn't see it. The question is why doesn't he see it?
Another thing that is apparent to everyone but JT is that Choi is a streak hitter. A streak hitter cannot come off the bench. Its like getting hot at the craps table. When it comes you got to play it out. Then it goes for a while. You can't throw the dice one time to get hot.
Whatever the reason, I cannot believe it has anything to do with JT's integrity.
Did I get that right, Bob?
I've NEVER heard JT make excuses THAT lame as to why someone didn't play. It's quite obvious that he wants to come up with any reason he can in order for him to bench Choi.
After Tracy and Depo supposedly had a meeting, I think it would be interesting if we see Choi play a bunch of games in a row.
As far as the article on bunting goes, I can't be the only one who has a problem with Depo NOT interfering with game management? The GM and Manager HAVE to be on the same page, otherwise you've got what we currently have...a manager asking players to do things they can't do. There needs to be a consistent plan throughout the organization, and right now, I certainly don't see that.
Obviously, it's not just the Choi thing. There is plenty of other evidence this season that Tracy, whether willfully or not, is not managing well, at least during games. At this point, the way the "smartball" vs. "moneyball" battle is going in MLB, it wouldn't surprise me at all to learn that Tracy and DePo are in opposite camps, and that Tracy is bound and determined not to give in. I really don't think he has much to lose, other than his CURRENT job, because his view (and Morgan's) is still in the majority in MLB, and he'd get another job easily.
I don't think he's dishonest. And, since he never seemed dumb to me before this season, I don't think he's dumb. I think he's stubborn and unwilling to learn. That's not inconsistent with the notion that he's "daring Depo to fire him." I'm sure he's happy about these two wins - he feels vindicated (wrongly so). But he's got to go.
I'll be really surprised if Tracy is fired before the season ends, but I'll be more surprised if he's the manager next year.
#99 Steve, good point, except I heard they were grooming him to be a position player. Its probably both.
Two CAT scans doesn't sound like a happy time. Are you doing alright?
Tues: Porn day and would you sleep with Marilyn Manson.
Wed: PETA Causes: Stop eating turtle eggs for virility.
Today: Waterworld and can you smell your own asparagus laced urine when drinking it.
I shudder to think what tomorrow will bring. It can't get any weirder. Can it?
Also, somewhat oddly, the best hitter on the team is a non-prospect named Tydus Meadows. A 27 year old left-handed outfielder, he is 4th in the league in OBP (.426) and 6th in the league in slugging (.556). His career OPS of .877 is decent, but he's never played above AA. I believe we signed him as a minor-league free agent.
Just looking through the Southern League offensive leaders helped me realize how good Delmon Young is. He's leading the league in slugging (.587) at 19 years old. Nobody else in the top 5 is under 24. The next closest youngster is Felix Pie, who at 20 years old is 7th in the league with a .554 slugging.
CAT Scans of Timmermann's Head Show Nothing.
No subject-verb agreement there.
Sorry, Icaros and Vishal, internet went kaplooie. Vinny was talking about Sunday day games at Wrigley being preceeded by a performance by afull orchestra with male and female singers. Talked about how he loved it.
Doubt very much the explanation was worth the wait :)
That was the last television show I religiously watched every week until "Lost" this year.
i appreciate it anyway, jim. i like closure :)
#108
that's what an 8-game losing streak will do
#69
what about orel? the fans wouldn't mind losing tracy if we brought in a dodger legend, and hopefully he's learning how not to bunt from showalter. and since he would be a first-time manager, he wouldn't have his own way of doing things, so maybe depodesta could sit him down and sell his philosophy to him. hershiser seems like a smart fellow. and maybe since he was a victim of pitcher abuse himself, he'll know when to bring out the hook. though maybe not, since he was kind of a willing victim.
Little did I know she played Lily Munster in a Munsters remake, though.
vr, Xei
vr, Xei
Back in town for 2 days = Dodgers 2 game winning streak.
No more vacations planned until October.
vr, Xei
There couldn't be a more perfect candidate for sabermetric manager. Of course, I don't really know how he thinks, but I get the feeling that he could get with the program...
Anyhow, did I see correctly that the guy who wrote the urine-effects (among other things) book was named "Urrea"?
-- A story defending the bunt, specifically focusing on Jim Tracy, Paul DePodesta and Mike Scioscia and their various favorable opinions of it.
-- An even one-line-ier than usual column about J.D. Drew that refers to his inability to "holler" as proof that his signing was a mistake. After taking several gratutious shots at "Stratomatic" DePodesta, he finally gets him to admit "chemistry is crucial." (DePodesta should ask to hear the tape.)
-- Gives Tracy a forum to defend benching Choi yesterday because of Lawrence's "repertoire of pitches and arm angles." In the same few paragraphs, Tracy also gets to defend leaving Perez on the bench "in case we got an infielder hurt later in the game."
Jon and friends, the game is on! The Times is clearly determining its editorial policy with respect to the Dodger and baseball generally on answering what they read here. It's a battle for circulation, in which we have nothing at stake, and the Times has everything! We've got the advantage! We've got the lineup! We've even got the chemistry! Fight on!
He found out the figures through June 23 for the Pacific League only, which uses a DH.
G Plate Appearances AB SH
Lotte 70 2731 2415 33
SB 73 2784 2490 39
Seibu 73 2797 2484 35
Orix 71 2753 2447 46
Nippon Ham 70 2669 2426 18
Rakuten 71 2570 2324 36
I can't figure out how to columns here (or really anywhere, columns are my biggest obstacle in life), but they most is 46 sacrifices in 71 and the fewest is 18 in 70 games.
The first place team, Lotte, managed by Bobby Valentine has 33 in 70 games.
I consider Drew to be DePo's first mistake in judgment. He is a good player, don't get me wrong, but not an $11mm player, not a guy your build your offense around, and not a guy you build your defense around.
I can't believe there was ever the slightest discussion about Bradley or Drew in center!
And now, Mr Excitement is out for who knows how long with a boo boo in his knee? I fear the stretches of time out of the lineup and just beginning for him.
Who will drive in the runs now? And who will deliver the key hits now? Oh wait, he hasn't done that yet....oh, never mind...
"He was the double sixes in Paul DePodesta's giant game of Strat-O-Matic, the scroll wheel on his baseball iPod."
The first part of this makes no sense, since 1) you use three dice in Strat, and 2) double-sixes in Strat on two of the dice has nothing to do with the ideal, which is the analogy Plaschke is trying to make. In fact, it's quite the opposite - the possibility of a rare, fluky event.
The second part of this is completely inscrutable to me, and not because I don't know what an iPod is.
As far as whether Drew is an $11 million player - well, in today's market, like it or not, I think he is. Is he the ideal player? No. But I'm not sure I saw many better alternatives out there - especially once Beltre 2004 was gone. Think about where the Dodgers might be without Drew. He's sure better than Shawn Green.
Of course, I still lament not having Vlad.
please don't take issue with the 2 game difference, it was a joke....
kind of like the home sales prices these days...
yes, and Piazza...then we'd be cooking....
The main problem I have with the Drew signing is that I think we overpaid and overbid. Braves have said they offered about 28 over 5 years...who else was bidding on this guy?
Has anyone read the book (cant remember title) where Larussa bashes Drew? What is the jist of what he says.
The Tigers were one other team bidding on Drew. I don't know who else besides was bidding.
Please spare Devon White jokes.
Most of our big years have come via trade or home grown guys.
via trade or home grown...
ok, I give up, what other options might there be??
Is that enough or should I go into the JD Drew only playing one season injury free?
As for J.D. Drew having a boo-boo, the man is missing cartilage from his knee. I've bruised the cartilage there, and it hurt pretty badly for a month, I'd hate to see what would happen if some were actually missing.
my wife has been thru the same thing Drew has, even had 2 knee surgeries concurrently, if Drew was as driven as Kent, he'd be out there playing...
"via trade or home grown...
ok, I give up, what other options might there be??"
Ummm...free agents?
Drew 2005: .272/.394/.481=.875 OPS
12 HR, 31 RBI
Beltran 2005: .264/.322/.420=.742 OPS
8 HR, 35 RBI
Somebody please try to argue how, especially considering how much more money Beltran makes, Drew is not the better signing.
what's so "free" about them...
I know, I know, as soon as I thought about it, I saw that 3rd option....sorry, don't I feel like a f'ing idiot (with apologies to Jack Nicholson)
To say that we'd be better off right now with Beltran, however, is ludicrous.
38 Hr, 42 sb and a 915 ops are run of the mill numbers, while playing gold glove center field.
do ducks quack? I thought they said aflak
Drew - 3156 PA, .286 AVG, .391 OBP .901 OPS HR/19ABs
Beltran - 4189 PA, .283 AVG, .351 OBP, .837 OPS HR/24.1ABs
Add that Beltran played for years in KC when it was a severe hitters' park, plus half a season in Houston. Drew played in pitchers' parks in Stl and Atl, yet still outperformed Beltran.
Also, Drew has more plate appearances this season than Beltran, who has been hurt.
.286/.391/.511/.901
One of these sets of numbers are the carrer stats of Carlos Beltran. The other are the carrer stats of J.D. Drew.
You can guess which one is which.
If Drew opts out in 2 years, at least we don't have to "overpay" him.
The Tigers offered the money they eventually gave to Magglio Ordonez, which was actually MORE than we paid for Drew.
Ordonez was the worst signing of the offseason; Beltran was not a lot better.
Is 155 games from Beltre, with the numbers he's currently putting up, a good thing?
It's kind of fun that Depodesta can do no wrong on this site. Even, if Beltre was leading the league in HR/RBI's there would still be some stat thrown out that Beltre is last in pitches seen per ab, so Drew was the better way to go.
Plaschke is using the same ridiculous tactic that our politicians our hitched to these days. Paint everything in black and white, and then vilify or belittle anyone who disagrees with your assessment. I am just so *&^% sick of it. Whether its sports "journalism" or politics, analysis has degraded into a twisting of snippets and anecdotes in order to arrive at a pre-determined conclusion. As usual, the truth lies somewhere in the middle. When it comes to analyzing players, there is a place for using VORP and OPS, and a place for assessing clubhouse chemistry and the need for a Kirk Gibson type. But you can't expect to get everything from a single player, and you can sit around waiting for a fiery competitor while the best players available on the market get snapped up.
Didn't mean for this to turn into such a rant, but today's Plaschke column was truly drivel of the highest order and I am not even a big Drew fan. In fact, I think Drew might be dead last on my "people that I would like to throw back a few beers with" list (probably because it would have to be Ginger Ale).
On the highly erudite side-topic of urine, here's a tidbit for the day. The shamans/medicine men of Siberia and Mongolia used to take Amanita muscaria (a highly hallucinogenic and partially toxic mushroom) as part of a healing ritual. The head shaman got the first batch. Since most of the active ingredient in the Amanita passes through the body unused, the urine still has sufficient hallucinogenic properties. You can guess the rest of the story. After the head shaman got his dose, the lesser shamans would subsequently get their dose a short while later as each one peed in an ornamental vessel and passed it down to the rest of the shaman hierarchy.
For one thing, there have been many studies done to disprove the relevance of lineup protection (can somebody remember a link?).
Also, Cliff Floyd and David Wright are putting up better number than just about anyone in the LA lineup.
I love to disagree with you :-)
vr, Xei
The thing is, I'll say DePodesta can do no wrong until he actually does something wrong. He hasn't lost out on an important trade yet, he's hasn't not won the division yet, and so far none of his signings have been all that bad (though time will have to tell on that one.) So yes, other than leaving Erickson on the team, DePodesta hasn't done anything worth complaining about.
This just isn't true. It has never been true - just ask Howard Fox, among others - and it isn't true today - just ask Steve, among others.
Anytime someone brands the readership of the site as monolithic, they're not paying attention. I'm not saying that to be defensive (though I am defensive by nature) - but it's just the way it is.
I look forward to your rebuttals, they make my day
Yes, and never forget, we always defer to your infinite wisdom...
uh, I mean finite wisdom...
hey Icaros, correct me if I am wrong...
That's BS. Most people here loved Beltre and would be all over DePo if Beltre was doing even half of what he did last season.
I love when people stroll by for a few days to make blanket statements about how all DT regulars think.
Starts AB HR Avg OBP Slg OPS
46 163 13 .255 .317 .527 .844
Non Starts AB HR Avg OBP Slg OPS
18 16 0 .063 .118 .063 .18
DNP 8
Keep checking with me in the future, though.
and further on the Beltre point, I liked Beltre, liked that he was homegrown, liked that we watched his development into a star
too bad we lowballed him at $60mm for 6 years...
Grabowski is there to bring in the substantial Polish community to Dodger Stadium
you got it
If he can outplay Cody Ross and Henri Stanley, then I'd hate to see what those two guys do when they get up here.
bill.plaschke@latimes.com
doesn't hurt to give him a piece of your mind among other things.
vr, Xei
I think it was an excellent article.
But here is a list of the position players who saw what I consider regular playing time signed as free agents by the Dodgers after 1988 (not including players already with the Dodgers who were signing up after a contract expired) The year used is when the signing took place, so they usually played the year AFTER.
1989 - Hubie Brooks
1990 - Darryl Strawberry, Brett Butler
1995 - Greg Gagne
1996 - Todd Zeile
1998 - Devon White
2002 - Fred McGriff
2004 - Olmedo Saenz, Jose Hernandez (pre season), Jeff Kent, J.D. Drew (off season)
Beltre does have a family to feed. How do you expect him to get by on a measly $10 million a year?
I hate having to be the guy who has to parse Plaschke for everyone, but I think his metaphor meant that DePodesta thinks that all players are just interchangeable and you can just pick one out from a group and he will do fine. So DePodesta looked the group of players available (aka his iPOD music library), then used the scroll wheel (which runs down your battery fast if you use it a lot) to find JD Drew.
It's scary that I could explain that.
I'm going to have a nice cold glass of urine to calm me down.
112 - My apologies, it was late and I missed that line. I was ahuge Veronica Hamel fan. I can't believ she's a senior citizen now.
119 - Yes, he is Urrea. Must know what he's talking about. In the smae book he also goes into detail on various rituals (shamans) and the health properties of urine. Apparently heals eye irritations. Pro-urine users like to point out that "Murine" eye solution, minus the "M" spells...
Bob, AHH I see. That makes perfect sense me. Oh, and I bet since we live in an age of commercialized music and manufactured "top 40" songs are the ones that fill most ipods, Plashke was also making a comment on the disposability of our culture and how that disposability is creeping into baseball, and he's the only one there to stop it. Clever.
I believe the phrase is "Urine is a dish best served cold"
save some for us
no, Drew is the bomb
DePo is the ipod user. The computer is the wheel. Drew is the song.
DePo is the game player. The computer is the dice. Drew is the 2 sixes.
The analogy doesn't make sense because Plashke refers to Drew as two different things. Or I'm not paying much attention because I'm also working right now.
I like the twist this thread is taking.
Ratio of author's time spent writing the ipod line to DT time spend deconstructing it: 1:14 ?
Don't see a reference to this above, but sorry if it's a repeat. Jayson Stark (can we get him in the outfield?) has an article today "questioning" Beltran's performance this year. Haven't read more than the intro because it's a subscription deal, but the teaser line is that Beltran is tied for stolen bases with Derek Lowe. (He's also tied with Jason Grabowski, by the way.)
actually I think more have stolen on Lowe than on Beltran
I think he means Lowe himself has stolen as many bases on Beltran.
Even though the topics are kind of stupid today, it is much more upbeat than a couple of days ago...
ask Icaros...he'll tell you I was kidding
and just who might the Emperor be??
"emanski (trenton): Paul DePodesta faces an unusually difficult market in terms of his approach, and I imagine he's getting hammered in LA despite Choi's resurgence. How much is the Beane/et al approach tied to DePodesta's success or failure in LA?
Michael Lewis: I'm astonished at the vitriol aimed at Paul, and am equally amazed at the lack of curiosity of L.A. sports writers about why he does what he does. The Los Angeles Times, especially, employs two of the nastiest and most inept (least ept?) baseball columnists in the land. (I think it's just plain dumb how unseriously the major newspapers take sports; their approach to the hiring of sports columnists is an insult to sports fans.) Think of it! Young man takes over the previosly woeful home team, is hammered daily in the local papers for his idiosyncratic moves, pilots the previously uniwnning team to its first division title in, what, 15 years? and what do the local writers do? Hammer him some more!"
yeah, so what of it
Beltran - .283 AVG, .351 OBP, .837 OPS HR/24.1ABs
Green - .282 AVG, .356 OBP, .861 OPS
Couldn't find the HR/AB ratio and didn't try to do it on my own. Tend to injure myself when working with numbers.
leave us Jews alone
I find that highly amusing.
It's nice to see that winning breeds "chemistry," even in the online forums.
And remember: If it's the color of Guiness, you've drunk too much. Get a new batch from your neighbor.
I assume you're referring to one's Plaschke.
"Having one helps, no doubt about it," pitcher Derek Lowe said. "Having somebody jump somebody's butt once in a while, you need that. Right now, when you lose around here, it's so quiet. It's like everyone walking around on tippy-toes."
Someone needs to emerge in the leader role...Depo's list of Lowe, Gagne, Valentin and Bradley has only one real candidate on it-Bradley. The inclusion of Valentin is comical. What has Valentin done in his mediocre career that ever screamed winner or leader.
So, to be on the safe side, no more peeing in the pool...
then where am I supposed to pee??
Valentin drew criticism in Chicago for being too vocal.
No one's getting worked up. I have had lots of fun proving you wrong the last couple of days.
I say that with a smile.
you have to have something to build around, you don't want to start from ground zero...
that is called the Devil Rays
However, we seem to be using the wrong caliber of ammunition and it might blow up in our face.
Someone call the contractor.
We've had discussions where you claimed that Beltran signed a better contract than Drew, and that an outfield of Alou, Encarnacion, and Green with no pitching staff would be better than what we have now. I feel like I and a few others successfully rebutted those claims.
Please don't play the innocent role now when you've clearly come to antagonize the past few days, comments like "Moneyball Forever" during yesterday's game thread and "Hee-Suck Choi" come to mind. They don't bother me, personally, but don't get upset when you get called out for it.
I'd say something in response to MSarg, but I know he's a little sensitive and I'm in too good of a mood to go down that road again. I say that with a smile.
It seems to me there are three componants to the deals a GM makes: (1) the new players he acquires. Here, Depo has done an average job. Except for MB, I can't say Depo has gotten any real talent for value. Maybe Penny too. I have questions about Drew over the long term and we can all agree Valintine and Ladee were never the answer. Although we would really be up the river without Kent. Some good things -some bad things.
(2) The deals you lose out on. Here, Depo again is average. I would have prefered Clement or Hudson to Lowe or re-signing Odalis. Would have prefered Delgado to Drew but don't know enough about Delgado's contract. (Could it be worse than Drew's?)But I was glad we never entered the Beltran or Pedro contests.
(3) Identifing current players who should be replaced. Cora, Lima, Beltre and yes, those who know me know I hate admit it, even Green. Here Depo has been a master. However, taking away from this is his inablity to regognize his players who need to be replaced. Erikson, Grabs and even Werth.
Not that anybody cares but for today I give Depo a C+.
Matt Clement was going to sign with an east coast team, period.
And what's this "maybe Penny too"? He's the best Dodger starting pitcher since Ramon Martinez was in his hey-day (hay-day?).
In all honesty, I don't have a serious beef with anything Depo has done other than Beltre/Drew. I attend about 20 home games a year and the magic in Dodger stadium with Beltre last year was incredible. The fans loved that our inconsistent teenage son had finally grown up and he gave us the best season by a 3B in the history of baseball. His glove, his clutch hitting...it was the total package. He carried an average offensive team to 94 wins and I am outraged that Drew got his money, just like I was outraged that Brown got Piazza's.
He also has been blighted by the Curse of Jason Ellison after going to a Dodgers game with me. We are forever doomed to walk the earth saying "The Dodgers never win when I go" as well as, "Alex Sanchez is a good situational hitter."
There are many among us, including myself, that wish that Beltre would have stayed a Dodger. Even with his performance this season, I still wish he were here. You're right, watching him mature and put it all together last seas was a sight to behold.
Easily the line of the day.
The sun still rises in the east. Some things are out of our control.
Maybe they both are in the movie.
And anyway, don't call him Shirley!
That joke doesn't work quite as well in writing.
You're right. I was quoting from memory. It seemed wrong as I was typing but I couldn't remember the right line.
No offense intended, though I didn't really know what to make of your comment.
Sorry.
Ten guys, in no particular order, who should definitely not be traded:
* Kevin Brown: Maybe not the leader they wanted, but certainly the ace they need.
* Chan Ho Park: You don't quit this soon on an arm that good.
* Darren Dreifort: The six-inning pitcher is ready to extend himself.
* Pedro Borbon: You can never have enough decent left-handed relievers.
* Onan Masaoka: Especially if that lefty could go to Albuquerque and learn to be a starter.
* Todd Hundley: He's getting stronger every day, and his left-handed bat is too valuable to give away.
* Angel Pena: Allows Hundley to change positions if necessary.
* Adrian Beltre: Their third baseman for the next 10 years.
* Todd Hollandsworth: Important piece in a lefty-righty platoon that Davey Johnson has worked so successfully in the past.
* Gary Sheffield: The team's best hitter, and don't forget that championship ring.
Haven't you figured out yet that I always use the window?
Had he stayed here, how would he have reacted if/when Tracy is fired - 15 less homers? What about the new seating configuration at Dodger Stadium - those new seats would've cost him about 20 points on his batting average? No names on the back of the jerseys - that's 50 points off his slugging percentage. That ad ribbon that circles the Club level - 5 more errors? Izturis sits with a hamstring for a week - Beltre goes hitless?
I just thought it was a funny line. I didn't mean to start anything. Sorry if it was taken the wrong way. I do spend a lot of time lurking on this board because I find it interesting, even if I don't feel I have the time while I'm at work to keep up and make comments. I agree with some on this board and probably disagree with slightly more, but I mean no offense.
Baseball is baseball. If Beltre has such a problem with comfort in new situations, what's going to happen if he ever gets to a World Series?
I hate to butt in here (but I will). Even if one were to concede this point*, are you willing, then, to be as generous with Drew's performance? True, he's in the same league, but otherwise, the circumstances are the same. In fact, he may be facing more pressure, given that he and a handful of others have been made unwitting representatives of The Depodesta Way, and thus the target of misdirected anger by irascible sports columnists.
And yet, Drew has outperformed Beltre by a damn sight so far. Yeah, it's still early. But if you're going to excuse Beltre's abominable performance because he doesn't know any good restaurants near the stadium yet, then why aren't you praising Drew for his performance under the same trying circumstances? Or Kent, for that matter? Or Lowe?
*- Well, all except the thing about less pressure -- why would he have any less pressure after signing a massive contract to play here? It's one thing when he was just our homegrown heretofore disappointment putting it all together for one ungodly season. But having to reproduce that season one year and $60-something million later? that seems like plenty of pressure.
I have always believed it wasn't that Beltre learned after 5 years to lay off the low outside slider, rather that the bone spurs made it too painful to reach for them
Of course it happens. And maybe that really is what's wrong with Beltre. But given that last year's production was such an anamoly in his career, it's at LEAST as possible that the guy is just not as good as he seemed in 2005. Innit?
I can attest to that.
Adrian Beltre struggling appears to yield a sub-Cora OPS, 10+ HR, and a Seattle team roughly as bad as it was before, but three or four times more expensive.
So I think you're actually making Icaros's and DB's point, but I'll defer to them.
yes, very bad for them, unless of course he has a recurrence, probably in his 6th year there
actually I am partial to (hits + RBIs + runs + BBs - GIDP/2 - LOBs)/(annual salary)
call it the PISS (Production Indexed Statistical System)
another joke, Icaros
BA with RISP is a lot of luck. While there are clutch hitters and choking hitters, there are also plenty of people that perform the same in "clutch" situations. There aren't that many either situations either, so it's hard to distinguish whether the player really is "clutch" or if the situations happen to come at times when he's in a streak (hot or cold).
OPS is more often used here than in other circles. But it's pretty popular in baseball discussion these days. ESPN has probably helped popularized it (Gammons, the player profile page), so maybe some people took that as a sign that it's "okay" to use. Not like those crazy "VORP" things.
I have been brow beaten many times here in the past, but I believe there is a lot more to baseball than the stats which everyone is so enamored with
I understand and agree with alot of the whole MoneyBall thing, but believe there are a lot of intangibles that the Tracy by-the-book types do not give enough credit to
urine the right neighborhood
It hasn't quite yet, but it will this fall when "The Story of Billy Beane" airs on Lifetime.
Fun With Dick and Jane
The Cat In The Hat
Oh, The Bunts You Will Bunt
Imagine a waterfall of Gatorade.
too much?? how is that possible??
0 for 13 indicates that Choi will never get a hit against Williams...that kind of reasoning by Tracy makes me nuts...
you have a guy who has found his stroke, hits 7 HRs (including 1 against a lefty) in 4 days and Tracy rests him because that is what the book says??
you have a young guy batting in the .360 or so range on a 10 game hitting streak, the bench is depleted by injuries, and he gets rested too cause that is what the book says??
what happened to the old adage of going with the hot hitter...oh wait, that never made the final edition of Tracy's book...
clutch/non-clutch:
Sheffield-the most clutch
Beltre-clutch last year of course, average before.
Piazza-average
Karros-save for '95 was the king of the up 7 down 7 homerun.
Loduca-Clutch
Jordan-Clutch
Mondesi-Had his moments, a bit above average.
Green-Not clutch
vizcaino-kinda clutch if i recall
bradley-clutch
drew-average
kent-clutch
I try not to use it too much. It's one of those things that COULD be useful if you know what you're doing but is too often misused. I hardly pay attention to it, or try not to. If a hitter chokes in the situation, I just tell myself, "It's just chance." Of course if a Dodger succeeds, clutch indeed.
haha, well if you want to put it that way, howard, then maybe the problem is tracy that is just not reading the book carefully enough. i'm pretty sure the book says pretty clearly that 13 at-bats is an insignificant sample size. and the book should also say that it doesn't make sense to bunt with a .360 hitter and let the .220 hitter try to drive the run in.
so this has now turned into a battle against illiteracy.
The newest, hottest hit stat now is the 3OBP version of OPS, in which OBP is multiplied by about 3 and SLG is multiplied by about 2. This is to mitigate the SLG number generally dominating the stat and lend equal weight to the two measures.
but no one really uses it anywhere because it requires multiple, albeit simple, math steps.
A .400/.500 player has an OPS of .900 with a 2.200 3OBP version.
A .300/.600 player will have OPS of .900, but 3OBP of 2.100.
A .450/.450 player will be .900 and 2.250.
Very small differences, but some people did the math and think that these are better measures of actual contribution to scoring runs. I make no claims about whether OPS or 3OBP is better, or that 3OBP is even necessary, but there it is.
Beltre hit .350 in Sept with a 432 OBA and 23 rbi. Hr's were down a bit, with 6.
Jose, the guy before Cesar.
Howard,
There's no better way to light a fire in this blog than to argue that statistics don't mean everything. Heresy, I say, HERESY! I enjoy saying it here because when I'm not here I'm on Christian chat rooms telling them that the fetus isn't a life ... ever had a priest call you a pig-$%^#&@ ... good times, good times.
"One of these things is not like the others"
But that's better than the Looney Tunes I'm usually hearing.
Thanks Bob, that's the funniest thing I've read all week. Ah, for the halcyon days of Onan Masaoka. Plaschke really is like urine. There may have been some small useful element to begin with but more times you digest his writting the more impure and useless it becomes.
As for Beltre, I can't believe anyone would want to risk paying him the money he's getting for that many years. I think it was the worst signing in baseball last year. Obviously, I have hindsight but Beltre has gotten worse every year since 1999 until last year. I might have offered him a two year deal but nothing more. #315 I agree. I think Beltre's ankle had a lot to do with his success last year. The question I had last year was would he learn to hit the same way on a good ankle. So far he hasn't. It surprises me that people think that one great year after five lousy ones means that a player will, henceforth, be great. Streaks come in years as well as days. I was relieved that Dodgers didn't resign him at the price and length he got from Seattle. Beltre was fun to watch but so was Max Patkin, I wouldn't have paid either $13,000,000 to play third base. It's unfair of me to point out that Jason Grabowski has one fewer HRs than Beltre this year in less than a third of Beltre's PAs.
The one on Lifetime, "The Story of Billy Beane," stars Lorenzo Lamas as Billy and the kid who plays Harry Potter as DePo.
I'm so excited, I may have to get cable TV again.
In Moneyball, DePo was said to have said that OBP was 3x as important. With his little thought of experiment of how many runs a team with a 1000 OBP would score versus a 1000 SLG.
360 - Agree.
3OBP just means I need to clean my glasses
Who plays his daughter in SoCal who uses as an excuse to not go East.
The whole "newest, hottest stat" thing was meant to be tongue-in-cheek.
Notice it give zero weight to productive outs, timely hitting, etc. That's why the sabermetric community believes those stats are misleading. Because all available evidence says they are. And this is why it's so frustrating to see Plaschke, et al, continue to talk about the importance of these intangibles, heart and soul, whatever. There is no correllation with actual offensive output.
I believe Bill James discovered this originally.
I'm PISSED OFF!!
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