I miss posting every day. I miss posting every hour. I miss posting.

What I get from the charts (and thank you, Mr. Fearing) is that things are not that bad. Like the post you had earlier, Jon, we can't base DePodesta's performance on just half a season. We can wail and gnash our teeth about the micro --why are they keeping this guy in the game, what about playing this guy--but the macro game looks very, very promising.

Great work, Fearing (and to Jon for highlighting it). This really illuminates that DePo has done a decent job of personnel management. It's too bad that he'll get roasted in the press if the Dodgers finish with a wimper. I believe that Dodgers current situation is mainly due to the overwhelming amount of injuries and DL time that is being filled by players with little to no Major League experience. Ok, the SP was suspect for a stretch, but I really feel that pitching staff has come around.

Is Erickson included in this?

3 - No. Doug could explain his choices better, but I suspect he ignored non-roster invitees.

Well he hasn't pitched much, so yeah erickson is included. I think he has pitched 3 innings in June.

I thought I heard Vin say last night that our pitching staff is third best in NL since the end of May. Thats probbably why! j/k

My feeling is one of hope: Here is why:

Time will tell if the Padres will regret their recent failure to bury the rival Los Angeles Dodgers in three June games that San Diego led by at least two runs.

The first-place Padres would lead the defending National League West champions by 11½ games had they held onto those games. But by rallying yet again last night, Los Angeles moved to 5½ games behind San Diego, the only team the Dodgers have beaten in their past 14 contests.

Doesn't Erickson have negative WARP? I can't imagine why it would be useful if he didn't.

oops, thought you were saying this about erickson

#2 ok, the SP was suspect for a stretch, but I really feel that pitching staff has come around.

7 - LOL. I think that's part of the reason they are coming around: 3 innings in June for Erickson.

#3: I only looked at the Top 50 free agents as listed by ESPN. So, non-roster types, and even Wilson Alvarez, are not included in the list.

#6: Erickson does indeed have a negative WARP. At a -4.6, he is lowest on the pitching staff.

Erickson's WARP is -4.6? Really?

The chart makes DePo's off-season strategy far more comprehensible. Good hitting was gettable at a better price than Boras's price for Beltre. Kent is the steal of the off-season, and Drew was a good bargain compared with, say, Delgado, Beltran, Sexson or Glaus. However, the pitching market was in a bubble, so DePo made decisions that will cost us, but couldn't really be avoided if the Dodgers wanted to compete in 2005.

Public opinion plays into this. If DePo had signed Vinny Castilla, he would've been blasted even more than the Valentin signing, but obviously Castilla was a better choice. Ditto with pitchers like Paul Byrd or David Wells. "Paul Byrd? He's throwing in the towel for that cheap bastid McCourt!" But Byrd would've been a better choice than Lowe or Perez.

fearing blue..thanks man, this is alot of work!

Jon, your site rules. It's making it's way slowly into becoming my home page.

The only time I read other dodger stuff is after being here or linking from here!

To me this site is like Vinny. We know he wants the dodgers to win, but isn't biased about how he calls what he sees. Same here.

Kent's positive WARP is +4.5. Seems like Erickson (as much as he deserves all our hatred) hasn't had that much opportunity to be as bad as Jeff Kent is good. If that makes sense.

#13: Doh. I confused myself. Erickson's VORP is -4.6. His WARP is currently sitting at 0.0. It seems the bar for a replacement pitcher is quite low.

OK, so Erickson doesn't make any difference to your ranking anyway, since he doesn't get paid anything.

#11: Drew's relative value was one of the things that surprised me the most. I had previously been in the camp that thought Drew was at least significantly overpaid. After looking at what the other free agent sluggers are making, even ones with significant injury risks, it's hard not to like the Drew signing. The only hitter with a 4+ year contract who has been a better value to-date is Jason Varitek.

BP's free side has Erickson WARPing an even 0.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/ericksc01.shtml

12 - your last paragraph is a tremendous compliment. Thanks.

I'm pretty sure that WARP can't go negative.

15- He makes a difference on the efficiency side. Add an extra half million to the price of what WARP they got; the price per win goes up.

Corey Koskie sucks, which is interesting.

#15: Yes. That was one of the reasons I stuck with the top 50 free agents; the obviously bigger reason was simplicity. Alvarez and Dessens would drop the Dodgers pitching ranking a bit since they have not contributed much (0.3 and 0.2 WARP respectively) for a total of $3.8 million in salary. Ledee, even with his injury, has been a decent signing, contributing .7 WARP for $1.25 million. Along with Erickson, I think that rounds out all the Dodgers free agent signings.

#19: It's rare, but it can go negative. Poor Christian Guzman is one of the few examples (-0.40 WARP), especially for someone with regular playing time.

Your welcome, Jon.

Not only is this fun and hilarious at times but it is also very informative. It's great to share the passion with others. It's great to discover that after 25+ years of being a Dodger fan that I can learn so much more from everyone who posts here. We talk past, future and present on Dodger baseball and I just can't get enough of it!

Go blue.

Dear Dodger Thoughts,

I knew you were all just a bunch of DePodesta Trekkies. WARP, indeed.

Sincerely,

Bill Plaschke

WARP value is useful, but value probably shouldn't be the primary metric to evaluate whether a signing was good or bad.

For example, if I bought a used Suzuki Samurai for $1500, it could be a great value because I paid so little. However, it's still just a Samurai (no offense meant to any owners of said automobile). I could also buy a used BMW 3-series for $15000 and the value wouldn't be as good, but it's the far superior vehicle and a solid deal in its own right.

That said, I look at the fact that the Dodgers added more WARP than anyone else as the most important factor here. The total WARP added, while still retaining good overall value, is the thing to admire.

I second #12.

Engage. Straight on till morning... etc etc

Oz - fair enough. In fact, the premise of the whole piece wasn't to determine the best signing, but the best bargain (to date).

While Cesar hangs onto his All-Star Idol lead, Hee Seop Choi has moved into fifth in the All-Star voting. Hee is only 97,000 votes out of third place. Only 1,413,000 votes out of first place.

If we're so efficient, why do we still suck?

#26: That's a great point. Not only do you have to get a good value on your WARP :), you need to get a lot of it in order to win.

A team of replacement players corresponds to about a .350 winning percentage (57 wins). To be a good team, you probably need to add about 40 to that number. Taking into account injuries, I would think a team should plan for around 60 WARP. At $2 million per, that's not affordable for most teams (Red Sox and Yankees being the obvious exceptions).

Additionally, my belief is that WARP value drops over the life of a contract, since most players are signed on the wrong side of their peak. So, even if you can buy a championship for today, it's probably going to hurt you in the long run (see the New York Yankees).

I suppose that was a rhetorical question, but 1) other teams were more efficient and 2) efficiency is only part of the picture.

I'm asking quite seriously. Is it because of injury? Or because though our players perform well for what they are paid, they still don't perform well enough?

Yes. Those are pretty much the reasons.

There are bargains ... and then there's Albert Pujols.

#30: My gut answer to that question is that we were pretty lousy last year in terms of actual ability. The combination of a few fluky career seasons (Odalis Perez, Jeff Weaver, Jose Hernandez, Alex Cora, Adrian Beltre, Steve Finley, ...) and some luck (32 - 16 in one run games) got us into the playoffs. So, even though we have improved this year, which is very likely in terms of true ability, it's not enough to make up for last year's bubble bursting.

#35: That and injuries. I think Will Carroll recently pointed out that the Dodgers and the Giants have lost more salary to the DL than any other teams. Our current rate of value lost / day is higher than any of the other "contenders" in the NL West.

Off topic, but there's a great article about Vinny (by Steve Bisheff of the OC Register):

http://www.ocregister.com/ocr/2005/06/28/sections/sports/sports/article_576888.php

It seems to me even on this site there is a cloud of mystery as to why we "suck"... although our pitching has been suspect enough to induce a slump in winning, it seems clear that the overriding problem is INJURIES!

#38: Injuries do play a large role. The Dodgers have lost a total of about 10 WARP to injuries. Obviously, if we were to add that all to the Win column, we'd be a very good team, but everyone loses time to injuries, and some teams, like the Dodgers, should expect to lose more than others. The Diamondbacks, who have been the healthiest of the NL West teams, have lost 3 WARP to injuries. The Padres have lost 5 WARP and the Giants have lost 9 WARP. I'd say that injuries have only cost the Dodgers about 3 or 4 wins over what DePodesta should have expected coming into the season.

Continuing my modest service of regularly providing you with cherry-picked snippets from the Wash Post beat writers' weekly online chats -- a wonderful regular feature of the paper by the way -- I bring you another episode of the Closer Follies.

Washington, D.C.: Lee Mazzilli is awful on game day. Let's see the bases are loaded with my starter in trouble. I know, I'll have a 22 year old rookie warmup by himself. One walk, one wild pitch, and the game is tied, and there is no one ready to fill in. Let's not even mention the failure to bunt in the right situations. Hargrove would have this team 5-10 games higher in the win column.

Jorge Arangure Jr.: I think you might be a little harsh on this one. I can understand your hesitation to bring in Ray in that situation, but it's the sixth inning. You can't treat that inning as if it were the eighth or ninth. You can't bring in your most reliable reliever that inning because then you have to use Ray in the eighth if the Yankees rally again.

Leaving aside the absurdity that business about bunting and Mike Hargrove, the last sentence of this chat is such a perfect example of what Jon was railing about a month ago on this closer business. I mean, it just crumples under the weight of its own illogic. You have to use the rookie because you can't bring in your most reliable reliever -- when the bases are loaded and you're up by one -- because what if you do and then the other team rallies again and then you have to use the rookie? I'm pretty sure that if the goal is to avoid using the rookie in a tight spot, bringing him with the bases loaded up by one is not the best way to achieve it.

Link to chat: http://tinyurl.com/8fwtw

More O/T: On this date in baseball history (from my local paper):

1907 - Twelve Washington runners stole on catcher Branch Rickey, and the Senators defeated the NY Yankees 16-5.

Good thing he went into the front office, huh?

34- Well, yeah, there's that. Pujols would be between Sexon and Valentin, on the above list, with a 2.8 mil/WARP. But he's also half a point WARPier than Kent.

I'm a moron. I missed a column and was using next years salary. If he's only making 11 million this year (ignoring incentives, right?), then it's 2.2 mil/WARP. A little worse than average, but better than Glaus, Beltre, and Finley.

All this is fine but what about H&SARP?

But seriously folks, I think injuries are a big factor because they become compounded the more there are at one time. And I think injuries to less important parts of the team, Ledee for instance, become much bigger when other players are injured as well. The more pieces that are missing, the lower the margin for error. And the more unproven players you bring in to fill the holes the higher the possibility for error (figuratively and literally).

#30:
In my humble opinion, the reason for our 'suckiness' is twofold. Undoubtedly you would have to blame injuries as the first and foremost problem. Anytime you have less than half of your expected opening day roster take the field for an extended amount of time, you are going to suffer. The second problem, which is more difficult to show, is our lack of syncing our good hitting and our good pitching. This is not something that is necessarily controllable and is more a product of good old fashion luck. Without having stats or fancy tables to show what I am talking about (I'm sure someone could easily throw one together), our great hitting in May was undermined by our slump in pitching. Our reasonable pitching in June has not been outweighed by our struggles at the plate. Both slumps can certainly be linked to the barrage of injuries, but Lowe, Penny, Weaver and our pen struggled when Izzy, Saenz and others were hot and now as Weaver, Penny, and our pen come around, Izzy is .080-something in June, Seanz has come back to earth, and our rookie replacements are playing like rookie replacements.

I know that baseball is a game of streaks. Hot and cold, good and bad. But I don't ever recall watching a team that has had such a Dr. Jekyll / Mr. Hide persona. Even in a micro-perspective, player performances have been glaringly streaky. Kent starts blazing hot, cools off in June and is now back. Choi – ice cold, blazing hot, and back to frigid. Izzy is the epitome of this – a .349 hitter going 6 for his last 74 – overnight. Does it seem this way to anybody else, or am I just more aware of it than I have been before?

Whereas Our Loving Savior would be in his rightful place at the very top with .269 mil/WARP. You know, so long as none of the other arb. ineligible players were considered.

44- That's a really intriguing point, I think. DL synergy. It instintively makes sense.

40 -- I like how every time Sam treats us to a dumb sportswriter from WaPo, it's a different dumb sportswriter. They must grow on trees on the East Coast. Don Graham must keep dozens of them in a cryogenic chamber and bring them out as needed.

Not only that, but it is an example of the pathological aversion all beat writers apparently have toward anything resembling "scrutiny" of the manager of the team they allegedly "cover."

Or it could just be that he didn't understand the question.

#45: It has definitely seemed that way, especially over the last couple months. Nonetheless, statistically, it seems our recent bad luck has been balanced out by our good luck earlier on. Our current record of 35 - 40 is only off of our Baseball Prospectus Third Order adjusted record of 35.4 - 40.6. Essentially, BP uses the cumulative statistics in pitching and hitting to determine an expected Win / Loss record. In this case, it's very much in line, which suggests our luck has pretty much balanced out.

Hey wait. After winning last night, our record is actually 36 - 40. Sweet!

IIRC, Bill James once wrote that the difference between a 1st place and a last place team in any given year isn't really that great, and sometimes blind, dumb luck can be a decisive factor. So yes, add me to the 'bad luck and injuries' crowd. Remember, Vin loves to quote that Robert Burns line about how "The best laid plans of mice and men gang aft aglee," and one could say that of DePo this year.

51 - One could say that and I think one should say that. But I don't think that will get said by anyone in the MSM.

First off, what Jason #12 said, because he said it so well.

And thanks, FB, for all the hard work. Don't know what drives you (the need to understand???), but it's appreciated.

Shawn Estes has been left off the list of pitchers and has been perhaps one of the best free agent signings. Signed by the Diamondbacks for just one year for 2.5 Million he has a WARP of 3.1. Perhaps his WARP cost puts him just in front of Loiza though the ERA is a little worse. He has been one of the team's biggest surprises and is a big reason as to why the team sits where they are.

I know this accounts for defense but how can this be:

Glaus .884 OPS, 2.2 WARP
Beltre .683 OPS, 2.2 WARP

#44 raises perhaps the most critical point. Multiple injuries hurt on an exponential basis. Having one player out 50 days or even two player 25 days is not as damning as having 5 players out for 10 days.

On a different subject. Has anyone (other that Tracy or Dodger PR weenie) provided a meaningful explanation for how Drew could not PH with the game on the line on Sun. but can play all day Mon. in the outfield and go 2-2 with 2BBs. Did he find a faith healer in the interim? Don't get me wrong, I am grateful for yesterday's performance but it really makes me question the guy's heart. Jeff Kent he ain't.

55 - Very good question. 1) Defense? 2) Ballpark? 3) Alphabetical order?

56 - I know why this gets greeted with skepticism, but I don't know why it gets greeted with such skepticism. Haven't you ever felt significantly better a day later? Sometimes you don't need a faith healer, but just 24 more hours.

Players come back from missing an entire game to playing an entire game the next day all the time. Drew is being unfairly singled out because of his reputation.

Honestly, is there any legitimate reason to think Drew wouldn't want to go up for one at-bat Sunday with a chance to win the game?

Perhaps I'm being reactionary to all our injury issues (not just now, but our tendency to rush people to play), but I'm inclined to give Drew all the time he needs instead of trying to be some macho man who ends up spending half a season or more on the DL over something that should take a few weeks to heal.

60 - I agree.

Wow - I almost commented for the cycle for the first time.

56-Good point. I'm glad we have J.D. on our team but at the same time the guy is a weenie.

At that point in Sunday's game he could have told J.T. he could pinch hit with the game on the line. Do you think J.T. would have said, " No,I want Mikey Edwards hitting in this situation."

J.D. has little heart and complains like a little girl. Granted he is still an On Base machine.

Remember this is the guy who twisted his ankle jogging in from the outfield after an inning and went on the 15 day DL.(St. Louis)

59 - Because he has no heart?

That's the only argument and it is, of course, silly. Fanerman has it right, I think. Drew's performance last night was proof that the extra day was exactly what was needed. I think Drew knows his own body very well and I, for one, trust him.

Lost in the Ripken hero worship was that the guy would go through horrific slumps without taking himself out of the lineup. I think Ripken, however admirable he was as a player and man, actually cost his team wins.

Slimers has joined the JD-has-no-heart argument. That's not the kind of company anyone should want to keep.

yah, if Drew needs 15 days off to go .305/ .436/ .570/ 1.006 then he can have it.

Now, get to work!

62 - I did that once. It's a good feeling... ah, memories.

64. Suffering Bruin

or lost in the Ripken hero worship is Shawn Green 2003

Good point. I'm glad we have J.D. on our team but at the same time the guy is a weenie.

Have you met him?

At that point in Sunday's game he could have told J.T. he could pinch hit with the game on the line. Do you think J.T. would have said, " No,I want Mikey Edwards hitting in this situation."

Wouldn't surprise me with JT.

J.D. has little heart and complains like a little girl. Granted he is still an On Base machine.

Haven't heard him complain once this year. He hasn't even been on the DL.

Remember this is the guy who twisted his ankle jogging in from the outfield after an inning and went on the 15 day DL.(St. Louis)

People sprain ankles doing all kinds of things, including jogging. I don't see how this makes him a weenie.

I sprained my ankle once tying my shoes. I don't like talking about it.

Well, last one from the Wash Post menagerie, only because it's pretty on-point. Over the weekend, Tom Boswell wrote a glowing article about Nationals rookie outfielder Ryan Church. But halfway through, the thing veered into this long discussion about whether or not Church has the heart to play hurt, and more to the point will he be able to prove that to to the tough vet Nats (and of course, to the toughest, vettest Nat of them all, Frank Robinson). I'm not going to excerpt because the discussion (which includes a not-tongue-in-cheek reference to Church proving he belongs in "the lodge") is too long. Here's the link, though. http://tinyurl.com/8ltz8.

Sheesh -- this kid is a rookie on a first place team, having exceeded all expectations so that some folks are talking about rookie of the year, and he just saved a game (or whatever) by crashing blind into the outfield wall, and this dogs him. I don't know Church, but it seems pretty unfair to assert that he doesn't want to play based simply on this sort of guesswork.

64-65
I agree with these posts. I can't stand the armchair warriors who belittle guys who don't "play despite injuries." I understand it more from young fans, who don't know how quickly and frequently the aches and pains set in once you pass 30. But heck, we've just had an example, in Eric Gagne, of the dangers of coming back too soon. I also wonder if maybe Izturis is hurt. Playing while injured is only good for the team if you're better at less than full speed than your replacement AND if you don't make the problem worse by not resting. Beltre last year was a good example of that. But to just call someone a sissy for not playing hurt is stupid.

Oh, and yes, I do think it's entirely possible that Tracy would rather have Edwards bat than Drew. Tracy is certifiable, and Edwards DOES have a higher batting average, if JT needs a justification.

It's off-topic, but worth mentioning that Andy LaRoche has been the best hitter for JAX since his callup -

.370 .431 .804, with 5 HRs, 5 2B, and 5 BB in 46 ABs.

I was curious how he'd respond to the increased competition, and so far he's making opposing pitchers look as silly as the Hi-A players he just left in the dust.

69 - And I wouldn't call you a weenie for that, either.

68-Actually I have met him, at photo day last month. He seemed like a good guy. He didn't say much, but smiled for the camera's.

My point is this. There are championship caliber players who are will to take one for the team. Sunday's game was very important.
It's hard for me to fathom that he couldn't go up to the plate for 1 pinch hit.

Even in the back of his mind he knew he wasn't completely healthy, he had a better chance at producing than Mike Edwards.

#60 I agree. If Drew needs the time to heal then he should take the time. I am not suggesting that he should be a Mr. Macho. But to go from being completely unavailable, for even one AB with game on the line to playing an entire game in the outfield (the part which I imagine hurts his knee most) with 4 ABs, including running out two hits, in the span of one day is curious to me.

#58 Jon, there are days I feel like crap and can't come to the office. There are days I feel like semi-crap and come in to finish one project and go home. There are days I feel a little crappy and just work thorough it. I don't know that I have ever been laid up where I can't come in one day and the next show up for 8 hours and be at full strength. You were an example of this two weeks ago. Gradually as you began to feel better you posted more often and more in depth. Its just human nature. What Drew did, IMO, defies that notion. There was nothing gradual about it and it makes me wonder if he is willing to play at anything less than 90-100%.

75-I agree completely.

I apologize if anyone was offended when I called J.D. a weenie.

But you do what it takes to help your ballclub win games.

74 - I take your point but consider this.

Drew comes in to pinch hit. He gets fooled on a pitch and tweaks the knee. Or, if you rather, he gets a long double and slides in to second base. Big cheers from crowd but he comes up gimpy.

Do you think he'll get saluted for taking one for the team? Au contraire: he'll get lambasted by the Plaschkers for being brittle.

Beltre played last year on a bad wheel because playing wasn't going to make it worse. There is the risk that by compensating for the injury, he would screw up his game and perhaps injure something else i.e. Gagne. Obviously, that didn't happen.

JD Drew didn't play because he was hurt and there was risk of making the injury worse. That's fine with me.

Even in the back of his mind he knew he wasn't completely healthy, he had a better chance at producing than Mike Edwards.

We don't know this. He probably had a better chance of hitting a HR, because Edwards has no power, but even healthy, Edwards DOES have a better average, so Edwards probably had the better shot at a basehit. But Drew was not healthy, and if they thought that running the bases, or even swinging would make the knee worse, then holding him out was smarter.

I blame Kirk Gibson for this. That HR made fans think that health was merely a matter of machismo. He didn't play much for the rest of the series, tho did he?

74 - Maybe he could have pinch hit, maybe not. But guess what, as important as every game seems right now, it wasn't the game of the season.

We shouldn't risk losing him longer for an interleague game in June.

Would Kirk Gibson have limped to the plate to face Eckersley in 1988 for a regular season game before the all-star break? I doubt it.

Wow, Bowden wanted to get Encarnacion in a trade.

Well, comparing an office to a ballgame is a stretch, but all I can tell you is that there have absolutely been times when I felt too crappy to work one day and felt fine the next.

Beyond that - say your knee is at 50 percent. It is not going to be able to withstand as much trauma as a knee that's at 100 percent. The trauma could send you back to 0. Whereas if you wait a day, you'll be much stronger. And yes, hitting causes trauma.

Furthermore, you assume J.D. was at 100 percent Monday. Why? Who's to say he wasn't playing hurt Monday?

The guy has hardly missed any time this year. He's getting the same biased treatment Milton Bradley gets if he so much as glares at someone.

80 - the two were made for each other. Encarnacion is a tools guy, played on a championship team, looks good in the uniform. If Bowden could have 25 Juan's, he would.

Just the travel would put me on the DL. I'd still take it with being able to play pro-ball, but travel like that just sucks the life out of me. So far I haven't seen anything that leads me to question Drew's motivation. If anything, he's made some good plays and seems to get along with everybody. Even if he's a wuss for one game, wouldn't you rather have someone that saves 5 or 6 for every one that he MIGHT not help in?

Just because he had a good day, doesn't mean he was 100%. He probably isn't. And anyway, while he was more likely than Edwards to come through on Sunday, it was still much more likely that he wouldn't have.

J.D. was quoted as saying the knee pain was still there. The swelling had gone down enough so he could swing, but it still hurt. So that tells me he was still too banged up on Sunday. It also tells me he is willing to play hurt, but not stupid enough to go out there when he shouldn't.

78- Read post 75. He sums it up completely.

To go from unavailable to pinch hit, to playing an game over a span of less than 24 hours is questionable.

Saying Mike Edwards has a better average than J.D. doesn't make much sense. HE HAS A BETTER CHANCE AT GETTING A BASE HIT BECAUSE HE HAS A HIGHER AVERAGE THAN DREW? That is mind boggling.

Edwards has a few less at-bats than Drew to say the least.

The best chance for the club to win was J.D. pinch hitting, no matter what his capacity was.

Oh, for the love of Choi. I figured with Bob gone, I'd have a better chance of making a point without getting beaten to it. Thanks for stealing my thunder Jon.

81 - We really should get a feel for the talking points on how to cover these guys. Let's take a a few, shall we?

Drew - gimpy, no heart or leadership skills
Kent - grumpy, stand-offish, unfriendly
Weaver - flaky
Choi - flawed
Bradley - time bomb

Who did I miss?

86- Even stipulating to Drew being the best chance, you have to acknowledge that the probability of his winning the game was small. If you think it was worth whatever the increase in likelihood that he'd be more seriously hurt, so be it. But it's a risky proposition, with only a small chance at the upside you're hoping for.

"To go from unavailable to pinch hit, to playing an game over a span of less than 24 hours is questionable."

This happens all the time (putting aside that it was more than 24 hours). All the time.

I also tend to cut players with knee injuries more slack. A personal prejudice of mine. I have two bad knees and am often in pain just walking. I can't imagine playing baseball with a bad knee, even at a young age.

88- SINNER! Choi is perfect. By definition. I hope you enjoy Steve's company, because eternity is a very long time.

The best chance for the club to win was J.D. pinch hitting, no matter what his capacity was.

You might literally be right. But if Drew's capacity to play included the risk of worsening his injury then it would be penny-wise, pound-foolish to play him.

89- So suddenly within less than 24 hours he didn't increase the likelihood of becoming more seriously hurt.

And played an entire game. Without visibly favoring the knee at all?

If Drew played Monday, he should have swung the bat on Sunday, just to gain the rest of the ballclubs respect. That sort of stuff goes a long way.

95-Thank You.

92 - Now, now, I was only highlighting the Talking Points of the media with regard to covering the Dodgers. I certainly didn't say they were my opinions. But, since you asked...

Drew - smart, SABR saavy, knows when to play
Kent - tough, veteran slugger, knows game
Weaver - flaky
Bradley - learned from his mistakes
Choi - My personal hero baffles commentary with his commitment to the game, to living right and being that beacon of light that all other players must aspire to.

The latter opinion may not last if the OBP doesn't pick up.

94- Everytime he takes the field, no, every time he so much as breathes, he's taking a chance of becoming injured. As are we all. But of course an extra day to heal decreases the chance of reinjuring his knee. Not to zero, because there's no such thing as zero. But lower is better than higher.

I'm still trying to grasp the WARP data. I came up with this from BP:

Kent 4.9
Drew 4.1
Bradley 3.3
Izturis 2.1
A Perez 1.5
Saenz 1.4
Choi 1.3
Phillips 0.7
Ledee 0.7
Valentin 0.4
= 20.4

We've played 76 games. My understanding of replacement level should be .350 win pct or 26 wins. .600 ball would be 46 wins. So if we're only looking for 20 WARP then the entire pitching staff must have negative WARP. If we're ranked 11th in NL ERA in a pitchers park maybe that's the case.

Fearing Blue- any way you can post the pitching WARP's and translate the total to our 36 wins?

97. I would change Weaver from flaky to high

Drew made it sound pretty simple yesterday in the LAT:

"I talked to three doctors and the training staff, and they've got a game plan to keep me from being out a long time," Drew said. "It's a matter of trusting what those guys think."

Now, will you guys let this go?

101 - LOL. I wish I thought of it.

102 - I meant 100. Sorry...

97- Redemption is a beautiful thing. You are an excellent witness to the awesome power of Choi.

104 - I could always quote anonymous sources for more evidence of his heroic feats.

Believe me, I'm still taking grief from friends over that one.

Why are we assuming that this is Drew's decision to make?

The Izturis chat on Dodgers.com has started. All softball questions so far.

106 - Because of Kirk Gibson.

Way off topic, but check out earth.google.com. It's a free application (windows only, sorry) Google has just released . It allows you to fly around the earth using satellite imagery. Type in a city name and watch yourself go to that location as it hones in on the city center. Pretty cool.

99- Is that how WARP works? It's a component-ization of a team's actual record? Doesn't that make it worthless for comparing between teams? Or maybe not worthless, but flawed, to borrow a term.

Anyone going to be watching the NBA draft tonight? Or are we all just Big Jim Tracy fans? :)
vr, Xei

#81 I still think its strange that a guy goes from not being available for a single AB (assuming its true) to playing a full game and playing it well. I am not picking up on LaRussa's comments or Simmers. My post simply asked whether someone had provided a credible explanation.

BTW, if is was less than 90-100% last night I hope he continues to play that way.

As for MB: Let me first say that I have complete respect for the way he has comported himself this season. He has been a model citizen and I hope the umpires and league officials take note. Having said that, I have to disagree with your statement: He's getting the same biased treatment Milton Bradley gets if he so much as glares at someone. Bradley earned that "bias" with two of the most notable meltdowns in the game last year. He got arrested and did jail time in the off-season for his lack of control. He has an admitted anger management problem. Thus, when he glares at someone and the press takes notice it is not a bias it is justified based on his prior conduct.

109 - thanks for that.

101 -- Exactly.

Aren't there doctors and GMs and (yes, God forbid) managers who have a say in this?

Or, perhaps, we should have a situation where a star heroically refuses to listen to all those namby-pambies (Denny Crane!) with the clipboards and the X-Rays, comes back too early, screws up his mechanics, shreds some important ligament, and comes uncomfortably close to destroying his career (assuming we're being told the truth about it in the first place).

Not that that would ever happen.

Here's a question for you:

Why does Bill Plaschke, when Eric Gagne goes down, blame the Dodgers for his usage pattern, but when JD Drew goes down, he blames...JD Drew.

If you don't know the answer, then you are, I'm afraid, very stupid.

Is winning a baseball game similiar to tossing a coin? Are the results after 70+ games similiar to a series of 70+ coin toss results? To a certain degree it seems to be. Especially when you talk small sample sizes. I guess that's where the phrase "on any given night, any team can beat you" came from. And I guess that is why Billy Beane said success in the playoffs is pretty much a crapshoot.
vr, Xei

The bias is the assumption that we know the explanation of the action. The bias is that people assume that Milton is barely holding back from exploding and that Drew is heartlessly dogging it. The bias is that people aren't willing to believe that in a given instance, Milton could be mildly angry at something, and J.D. could be legitimately hurt.

108 -- That wasn't Kirk Gibson's choice either. He made himself available. Somebody had to send him to the plate.

I'm agnostic about whether he actually should have been up in the ninth on Sunday. I can see both sides. What I can't see is blaming Drew until you have laid a foundation for it being Drew's fault.

#99/110: WARP-1 as used by Baseball Prospectus is adjusted to normalize within the season, but not specifically for each team's win total. I come up with a total of 36.2 WARP for the Dodgers (22.4 Hitting / 13.8 Pitching). I'm not exactly sure how this supposed to map to Wins. I thought, as you did, that a replacement player corresponded to a .350 winning percentage. Based on our record it looks more like 1 WARP = 1 Win straight up.

If Drew played Monday, he should have swung the bat on Sunday, just to gain the rest of the ballclubs respect.

That's the problem! We need an inspired Jason Grabowski!

119-you really dont see the point with that statement? Have you ever played team sports?

87 -- "Oh, for the love of Choi." LOLOL.

Xei -- i've been reading a lot of emails written by military types. Lots of "v/r"s.

#116 maybe we just have to agree to disagree(probably the first time I have disagreed with you).

The bias is that people aren't willing to believe that in a given instance, Milton could be mildly angry at something, and J.D. could be legitimately hurt.

I agree that there is not enough credible evidence to support the bias that Drew won't play hurt; however, given his track record, I don't think it is a bias to wonder if MB is going to lose it the next time he becomes agitated. To wonder the same after he has behaved himself for 3-4 years, that would be a bias. But for now, he has earned and to his credit, owned, his reputation.

#115: I think I recall it being something like a bad team (.450) has a 30% chance of beating a good team (.550) in a 7-game playoff, assuming you use the team's winning percentage to estimate its true ability.

Jason Repko need only be touched by the magic of JD Drew's presence, and he will blossom into the toolsy star he was destined to be.

I'm confused. I thought you didn't like JD Drew. Now he can raise the Living Dead! Bokonon, I think Choi has a rival and jealous god seeking the love of the clubhouse. Some among us are worshipping the Golden Patella Tendon.

#124: I just re-read my post and I couldn't have qualified my response any more if I tried. Yuck.

Hey Jon, I just sent you the WARP data for all the Dodgers in case anyone is interested. Like I mentioned before, I'm not sure how it's supposed to correspond to our record, but it still seems interesting.

#117 Steve, I agree. I raised this issue wondering if there had been a credible explination. I don't know if Tracy even asked Drew to PH on Sunday.

Steve,

Didn't you know that Izturis's horrible BA slide started because Choi didn't dive for a ball a few weeks ago?

Baseball teams are constantly ruled and ruined by the Butterfly Effect.

128 -- Well, it's a given that he should have, since Grabowski, Ross and Repko all left the game in tears.

I think the word "credible" brings us to the core of the problem. I think you and I would both agree that whatever the reason was that Drew didn't hit on Sunday, and even if they told the exact, complete, and total truth about it -- neither of us would really believe the Dodger organization. And that is a systemic problem to which I do not have a good answer.

129 -- ah...hence Tracy's apparently random managerial decisions! This is all starting to make sense now.

People follow leaders. Like it or not, there are 55 million reasons why the rest of the team will naturally look at a guy like JD Drew and the way he approaches the game, which for the most part has been blasted by many people in the game. This is the first chance he had as a Dodger to lead by example. Steve-you never answered my question about playing team sports. if you have, I assume you understand the context of my statement. Icaros-you are cut from the same cloth as Drew, so would expect an answer such as that.

Mark Grant, Padre TV announcer, quoted Drew as saying that he felt "a stabbing pain every fortieth step". They were mocking him for it. Has anybody else heard this quote? I read a lot about the Dodgers and haven't heard this one anywhere. It's a shame if he is repeating this and it is not true.

BTW, I think Mark Grant is an idiot. His work in the booth is a joke.

stubbs, are you saying Drew has a low Scrappy Quotient?

It's not the first chance Drew had as a Dodger to lead by example. For example, the way Drew didn't give up and worked his way through his season-opening slump, and came back strong. The way he has never complained about anything - including being asked to bunt, which was beneath him. The way he has always been on his best behavior. He will always dive for a ball. I'm not trying to make him into a hero, but you're so determined to villanize him, it seems necessary to point this out.

If the other Dodgers need J.D. Drew to motivate them - then point the finger at the other Dodgers. They would be the ones lacking heart. Courage, strength - those things come from within.

And further, you assume that every other moment Drew has played, he has been 100 percent. This is the bias I'm talking about. Because of what's been said in the past about him, he gets no fresh start here.

I see what you're doing. You're trying to turn Drew into LoDuca! .550 career OPS in that most important of leadership months, September, and all!

Remember, leadership is just one way of saying "I like you!"

I'll just stick with plain old JD "What the hell is his problem? Just get up there and strike out like the rest of those bums" Drew, without piling on the baggage of trying to explain why Grabowski, Ross, Repko, Phillips, Izturis, Choi, Werth, Weaver, and the rest of the Keystone Kops suck because JD Drew isn't Henry V on St. Crispin's Day.

Icaros-you are cut from the same cloth as Drew, so would expect an answer such as that.

Care to explain how you have any idea about the "cloth" I'm "cut from"?

Keep talking smack from behind your computer, kid.

132- Those fifty-five million reasons are exactly the reason it's a bad idea to play with fire. If you get a hot stock tip, and put all the money from your savings account in it, it's dangerous but might be worth it. If you cash out your 401k and put that in the stock, you're out of your mind. DePo isn't working with a Yankee sized checkbook, fifty-five million dollars worth of a crippled Drew is too big a downside.

There's got to be some happy equilibrium, but it has nothing to do with guts, or grit, or leadership.

135 -- Don't forget his magic fairy dust that turns wooden corner outfielders into real live boys.

#130 You are right there are bigger problem lurking in the background. 4 responses I would have found credible:

Tracey: "Drew asked to PH and I said no."
Tracey: "I asked Drew to PH and he said no."
Drew: "I asked to PH and Coach said no."
Drew: "Coach asked me to PH and I said no."

I realize this is unlikely but it would be nice.

Anyway, I am prepared to let go of this. I have to focus all my vitriol on a more deserving person: Tom Cruise.

137-Don't you know he has sources? Secret sources. That mustn't be questioned!

139- I spit on myself, a little, laughing at that.

How many games in the standings are leadership, heart, soul and scrappiness worth?
vr, Xei

I think the other credible responses are:

"Coach knew I couldn't pinch-hit, because we talked about it after my pregame workout."

"I knew I didn't want to risk Drew pinch-hitting, because we talked about it after his pregame workout."

But I'm very happy to let this go, too.

#143: Perhaps we should develop formulas for LORP (Leadership Over Replacement Player) and SORP (Scrappiness Over Replacement Player).

Even without knowing the formula for LORP or SORP, I'm pretty sure I know how to convert them into wins:

Additional Wins = 0 x LORP + 0 x SORP.