This is why I'm addicted to your site. :)

How is Nakamura doing in vegas anyhow? I have yet to hear anything about him since early july or something like that.

It's worth noting that (to my knowledge, at least) nobody except Jim Tracy has been claiming that Perez is an unacceptable defensive third baseman. When I watch him he certainly looks like he can hold his own there, and I'm glad to see the stats bear that out.

I think this may be one of Tracy's little blind spots, where his opinion cannot be swayed no matter the weight of the evidence against it. (see Choi, H.S.)

I've supported the idea of AP at 3B for awhile (I cited his Rate2 stats compared to Robles, too while BP was free, though I think Robles' Rate2 was higher back then). He'd get more comfortable as he plays there more, maybe he can raise that up. Even if he's just been lucky and time will show that he really can't play there right now, what do we have to lose?

Is anyone else surprised that Choi has played 100 more innings at first than Saenz, Kent and Philips combined?

It's possible that Tracy may be to ballplayers what Jerry, George and Elaine were to dating. Little incidents might play a huge role. It's like Tracy saw Choi or Perez use a toothbrush that had once been dropped in the toilet.

5 - I was surprised by how many innings Choi had at first and Perez had at third. Yet it's still not enough in my view.

Or maybe Choi ate an eclair out of the garbage?

I thinks it's because he's a ball bobbler, not necessarily an error maker but he bobbles the ball often. However he still makes the out 8 out of 10 bobbles so his offense should more than make up for his quite frequent ball bobbling.

9 - I guess that's the difference between hitting, pitching, and defense. If you look bad hitting or pitching but manage to be successful, people look past it. That doesn't seem to be the case with defense.

Tracy's a Ball Bobbler Bashing Bigot.

And if you're smooth with range, no one notices when you become smooth with no range- see Steve Finley.

Perhaps we could trade Choi to Foster Farms in return for Chicken Dogs at the stadium.

13------ ?

12 - Or Vizquel. We SHOULD be taking advantage of that misconception... except our manager is buying into it all the same.

14- That's what the Yankees ultimately did with George Castanza, they traded him to a poultry company.

While were at it, do you know the difference between Dodger Dogs and Cardinal Dogs?

Seriously, can depose Jim Tracy in some sort of bloodless coup?

Izturis is at 106? Don't you mean 160? or 1060? Again, as usual, I'm stunned.

http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/app/milb/news/top50/index.jsp?content=2

jon mayos top 50 prospects. i dont like the list and i think the guy is an idiot.

I don't care who plays short at this point, but I do know that I don't want Robles AND Izturis at the top of the lineup every night.

19-- So much of an idiot that you decided to do him the favor of increasing his exposure? ;)

By the way, for anyone who likes the Simpsons, this cannot be missed:

http://tinyurl.com/awwau

Los Angeles Dodgers - Disco Stu - Overconfident and forever predicting the return of their glory days. Brought up by devoted fans more often than is probably reasonable, considering their sporadic appearances. Haven't been relevant since the '80s.

Whats strange is that I dont remember Tracy ever being this bad at going against the stats as he has this year?

The treatment of AP/Choi is just mind blowing. Especially considering the team has fallen 12 games under .500 while not playing these guys. Whats to really lose (if your Jim Tracy) by actually playing them?

The key to turning this ship around is Cesar IZturis. If DePo moves him, it has a domino effect on the lineup. We fix the problem of AP not playing, along with our Izzy leading off problem.

AP
Drew
Kent
Bradley
Choi
Cruz Jr
Navarro
Robles

I can dream of this lineup in September.

For what it is worth I saw A. Perez play short when Vegas played in Tacoma last year. Obviously I did not see him over a long stretch of games, but he did not look like a bad defensive player at all.

Stan from Tacoma

20. Exactly. Thats why it was refreshing last nite to at least see Werth in the #2 spot. Werth has more patience than Izzy, and there's at least a chance, albeit slight, that he could knock one over the fence.

There are three kinds of lies; little white lies, big whopping lies and statistics.

No computer breakdown is going to sell me on the idea that Robles doesn't have dramatically better hands than AP. That conclusion is simply contrary to the empirical evidence I have collected by watching 95% of this year's games.

If I understand the statistic Jon is using correctly, it rates more than "hands." FOr instance, Perez has a better zone rating (balls reached), which could make up for having worse hands.

Anyway, if you look at their ratings, both Robles and Perez are below average, which seems right to me. Perez just has a tag that Robles doesn't.

26 - Nobody is selling the idea that Robles doesn't have dramatically better hands than AP. The idea being sold is that that may not be as big a deal as empirical evidence would suggest. Really, what do we have to lose by trying him there?

23 is dead on. If there wasn't tremendous preconceived and ill-considered bias in decision-making, there is not one argument to be employed for playing Izturis that wouldn't be exactly the same as the arguments for playing Choi or Perez, with the added specter on Izturis-backers that they would have to explain why being an average fielder should justify playing (and leading off) one of the worst hitters in the National League.

I recognize that stats can be useful, but when you rely on them too heavily, they do more harm than good. Stats should be viewed as one tool, not as a panacea. Let the numbers guide our judgments, not replace them.

30 -- We all watch the same games you do.

I've been to most of the games, and I don't have much confidence in AP's ability afield, except when at second. He seems tentative at best when at third, to the point that Izturis is constantly cajoling him to be aggressive and make plays.

That being said, I'd put him and keep him in the lineup regardless, we need the stick.

I've never liked Izzy at leadoff, too impatient. I like Robles alot up there, although lately he is too patient, taking too many called 3rd strikes.

Werth, to me, is trade bait in the off season.

But the saddest statement on our team - see 20 above -, is Cruz starting after the Red Sox and D'backs dumped him.

Even though off to a slow start, I like Navarro alot, love the way he handles the defense and pitchers. Unfortunately for him, our staff is setting a season long record for slowest deliveries to the plate, to the point that last night Vinny was dissing Odalis about it.

Okay, I'll do a Jim Tracy patented "gut feel" here -- I think the odds of AP changing the outcome of a game defensively seems much smaller than the odds that he could change the outcome of the game offensively. Not to mention putting him in the lineup would help the other hitters.

31- and do you think AP is as good defensively as Izzy or Robles?

32 - I agree.

30 - If we give him a chance and he's really bad to the point where his offense can't overcome his bad defense, what do we lose? Another game in the standings? What does that matter at this point?

34 - he'll be more beneficial offensively than hurtful defensively

32- I think I agree with every word of your post.

33
I concur. Thinking that Antonio Perez is going to lose a game with his glove because he made a crucial error in a game (the worst being one at shortstop against KC in my opinion) is Plaschke-style thinking. Such as Plaschke's infamous consignment of the Dodgers to the cellar because Valentin made an error on Opening Day against the Giants.

For years the Dodgers have started all sorts of awful third basemen. Tommy Davis, Bill Sudakis, Steve Garvey, German Rivera, Pedro Guerrero!

Why all of sudden third base has become the most crucial position on the diamond is baffling.

35 & 37 - don't get too used to it...I am just having a good day, that's all..

26 you are conflating empirical evidence with anecdotal evidence

I never said I wouldn't play AP, I just said I don't buy any stat that suggests I should ignore my own observations and trust numbers that tell me AP is not a defensive liability.

41 Shouldn't you be getting ready for tonight's game, instead of wasting time on an internet site? Sheesh, no wonder you make questionable decisions on when to pull starting pitchers.

;-)

24 He was Vegas' starting SS last year. Thurston at 2B and Ricky Bell at 3B

41 the numbers actually say that Perez is a liability, however, not as much as some would have you believe (I'm talking to you Jim Tracy) and further, that his offensive numbers more than make up for it

40- 100 games is not anecdotal. Nor is forty years of studying the game. Taken together that is most assuredly empirical.

Have to admit, this team has given DT plenty of things to discuss...

I wonder what they talk about over at Cardinal Thoughts? Must be boring.

No. I don't think he is. But the numbers are telling me that he is the same as Robles, and I take that seriously, mostly because I share the same likelihood to suffer from bias as everyone else does. If the stats told me that Izturis was a 125, I would have to look at that too. But the stats tell me what I already knew -- Izturis is an average shortstop who can't hit. Likewise, I think they're telling me that while Perez makes errors with his hands (he's made five), he may have made up for that by reaching five balls that Robles would not have gotten to. Perez appears to have a quicker first step and reaction time than Robles, so I can believe that too.

I'm the one who gave Perez the nickname "Darth Offerman." He hasn't convinced me to change it. But that doesn't mean I don't want him playing. The real debate is whether to play Izturis or Robles at SS.

42- And miss out on all this collective wisdom?

:)

actually 40 games is a pretty small sample size, you also seem to be making the mistake of relying too heavilly on subjective evaluations. one of the keys to moneyball is combining objectivity and subjectivity

45 Not anecdotal, but relying on your senses, which are fallible.

There are Cardinal blogs.

There are lots of complaints about Tony La Russa. It's something of a standing issue in the city of St. Louis. Sometimes they change things up and complain about Dave Duncan.

I'd put Robles at SS, Perez at 3B, trade Izzy and Werth...

I'd also trade Thurston...just kidding...

Gotta go now (I'm Civil Service and it's time to do the crossword).

I just think about the tongue-lashing Choi got from Kent, in the dugout, after that bunt fielding incident. I wonder if Tracy consults veterans like Kent. Sorry, just a random thought.

55 - if he consults the veterans like Kent, then it doesn't take him much time each day to do that...

a thought on that Angel flub by KRod yesterday, Eckstein would have backed up that play...so much for spending being, by definition, a good thing

56 -- Well, there's Phillips and Repko

Kent should realize that fielders that look bad aren't necessarily bad (or at least THAT bad), seeing as he kind of fits that mold.

58 - good one...but why Phillips?

60 - Does Tracy need one?

Suns game on. Hanrahan starting, still no Laroche

http://www.southernguide.tv/channel1.html

61 I mean "Does Tracy need a reason?"

63 - thought that was what you meant

So let me get this straight.

Choi CAN field and from the two hole was hitting: .325/384/719/1.103

Help me Obi Wan Kenobi, your my only hope.

I've got to run and I'm sorry if this comment was already made, but it's interesting that we had a pretty robust debate about fielding stats v. our own lyin' eyes during the offseason when Kent came on. Most couldn't believe that Kent actually fielded on par with his stats, which placed him right darn around (or superior to?) Alex Cora. I haven't seen that many games, and it may be that other grander sins simply consume the commenting collective but, after oppotunity for observation, Kent's defense at second seems respected or at least not an issue, as the skeptically-received stats predicted. No?

If Choi and Perez play everyday or almost everyday (I can allow a Robles 3B start for Lowe and Weaver's fragile emotions, since they give up at the first sign of trouble), I may go back into denial.

65 - you are kidding right??

whatever Jon's statistical analysis may say, I don't believe they measure that Choi doesn't get to any balls for which he may have to move a step in either direction, or bend over

I believe Choi's best position of backup DH

66 -- Count me among those who think Kent's defense has been tremendous. Although I was never really one of the skeptics.

And it's not just the numbers, I think he "looks" pretty good too. His range is deceptively good, he's got sure hands, and he is superb at turning the pivot on the DP.

70 - Kent is a true professional in every sense of the word, to the point that even Simers had nice things to say about him the other day...

Howard, it's the same sort of story. Choi will never win any awards for his fielding, but even putting aside the stats, how much better do Saenz or Phillips look at first base?

This pitching staff would make the 85 Cardinals look slow afoot.

As much as some debated it in the offseason, it is obvious that Kent was a superior choice to Cora at second base for 2005.

What's interesting is that the lesson from those results haven't been applied elsewhere. Take a chance on the adequate if less flashy fielder who is clearly superior offensively. And keep in mind, I loved watching Cora and Izturis play defense.

I think aside from the "fake hustle" deception that a lot of guys provide on IF defense, (Jeter more than anyone) size matters. Big guys just look ungainly. Kent is big for a 2bman. Choi is huge for any position. Perez is not big, but he's bigger than Robles. Little guys look smoother, can get to the ground faster, but cover less ground. 3rd basemen, esp. good ones, are often big guys (Rolen, Schmidt), I think partly because speed isn't as important as reach. Robles looks much better than Perez, and has better hands, but that doesn't mean that Perez can't get to more balls. Same for Kent. Same for Choi. When you're 6'5", you're always going to look awkward reaching down for a ball. Doesn't mean you won't make the play. And, as Yakface pointed out, so what if Choi (or heck, Grudzielaniek in his day) bobbles everything? As long as the out is made. Style points are for "Web Gems."

Thanks for these numbers, Jon. There is NO WAY that the difference between the best and worst defensive players at 3b, SS, and 1B are as large as the offensive opporunity costs.

Funny you mention Grudielanek, who actually is right behind Punto in zone rating this season (.882).

great article on chuck tiffany:
http://minorleaguebaseball.com/app/news/article.jsp?ymd=20050812&content_id=20855&vkey=news_milb&fext=.jsp

There's another aspect to this that shows why stats help us to organize our perceptions. Each starter usually gets 4-5 plate appearances. How many starting infielders get 4-5 balls hit to them during the game? SS and 2b probably yes. 1b and 3b, probably no. Now, what's the marginal value of a better hitter 4 times, and what's the expected marginal cost of a weaker fielder? It seems to me that a fielder who is a better hitter would have to make at least 1 error per game, maybe more, to not be worth starting.

75 I think you're spot on. Also, on the style points issue, I think that's what a lot of say, fans, sportwriters, or managers with the initials JT remember -- a flashy diving stop, instead of say consistent solid play (by someone like Kent).

I am very serious. I watch Choi on defense and I think he is just fine. AS Jon says, no Mark Grace, no Helton but fine. He is a nice target over there and is better than our other options.

plus there are only guys named Puljos, Cabrerra, Lee and A-rod with OPS over 1.000

78 that might be taking it too far. One error would probably have a more negative effect than the extra plate appearances would have a positive effect. I don't know how much a given error counts for without looking, but it's probably about a hit, and unless the better hitter gets an extra hit every game to make up for the error (which is probably un unlikley proposition) then it wouldn't be worth it. Of course, this is an extreme example, and the point that an above-average hitting average defending guy is probably worth more than an above-average fielding average hitting guy still stands

72 - Jon, its just a personal thing for me, but I have more confidence with Phillips at 1B than Choi...but neither is a first, second or third choice for me...

my opinion: we have no 1st 2nd or 3rd choice...another sad stmt on our team...

74 - maybe it was Cora who made Izzy look better...just a thought...

crap! jtD just got HBP on the arm! he is down for the count...

Drew, Phillips, LaRoche, JtD: Is this some kind of conspiracy?

81: Errors vs. hits. Well, that depends on the difference in OPS. A hit is not a hit if it's doubles and HRs (Saenz/Choi) instead of singles (Phillips, Robles), and walks count too. Most IF errors are for one base.

But I agree with 80 as well. I agree that Choi has some trouble moving laterally for balls on the ground. But I think he's actually terrific at doing what 1b mostly requires, which is scooping or reaching for bad throws (helps that he's really tall, but that counts). He also starts the DP well (helps that he's a lefty, but that counts too).

I looked at last night's lineup, and liked it, except for Phillips. Then, of course, JP hits a homer, just to make Tracy look good. Good for him - not his fault he's playing ahead of better choices. Offensively AND defensively.

sorry, jtd is who?

Guzman was hit on his left forearm. It was painful, but he should be fine. Stayed in the game

88 - that is cuz he is a stud

87 - Joel "The Destroyer" Guzman

87 Joel the Destroyer

90 - ahh...thanks...

we have no 1st 2nd or 3rd choice...another sad stmt on our team...

Tracy only makes it look that way.

what other way is there...who is our MLB thoroughly professional first baseman?

I decided to believ the announcer rather than post the facts. It was the right forearm, but the announcer kept saying left (he just corrected himself). Not that it really matters, Guzman has enough muscle that that was just a bruise (albeit a painful one)

I know you are biased on this, but Hee Seop Choi is our thoroughly professional first baseman, in a platoon with Olmedo Saenz. Nothing has changed since the beginning of the season. Choi is playing exactly as predicted. Saenz is playing better than predicted. So why is Phillips playing first? Tracy found the one way to take that Ishii/Phillips trade and spin it into a disaster.

to follow up on 94...

Saenz? a DH out of position when afield

Choi? should be a DH

Phillips? a second string catcher, maybe

Kent? an all star 2B

who should be our first baseman?

82 Well, it's not just you, Howard. Tracy obviously feels the same way. But I completely disagree. Numbers aside (tho I believe them) I've actually seen Phillips make more mistakes defensively at first than Choi. Even Vinny criticized him for making bad decisions (e.g., whether to go for balls in teh hole or cover the bag, how or when to rush up on bunts). And he has zero range. Smaller, slower, and, well, he moves like a veteran catcher.

yes, I am biased on this...I expect high quality at the corners...the top teams have that, and until we get it, we won't contend for the world series...

So you want Jason Phillips? You're not making sense.

my point is we have no choice

We have the choice to stop trading on preconceived biases and misinformation and play the 26 year old with a chance to make something of his career (and the 800 OPS at this point) rather than the 30 year old outeater with no range and numbers that, if were Fred McGriff, would get him booed out of the stadium.

102 - Yes. The arguments for Choi and Perez are one in the same. Much of the season has been a disaster. Let's make something of it and see how good (or bad) the young players really are.

I would just say that no one is opposed to doing better than Choi if we can do better. But it's just very hard to see how Phillips is better.

It was only a dream, but...

I got in my car today around 4:20 after doing an errand. I turned on my radio and heard Joe McDonnell in mid-rant. He was criticizing DePodesta for not making any deadline deals and for getting Cruz,Jr., and saying Tracy was getting a bad rap, he had been a winner all four years he was here, and from his tone, for just a few moments I thought it had finally happened: Jim Tracy got fired. The Big Nazz seemed really angry about it.

So I got back to the computer, jumped on DT and, alas, no sign of it. But it was a nice feeling while it lasted.

I just can't even believe this. Was anybody watching that Cardinal series? Penny and Lowe are giving up rockets down the first base side, and that's when all of this started, and there has been discussion of his range since.

The pitching staff sucks. They get exactly what they deserve, and it doesn't matter one whit who is playing the corners on defense. If we were going to win anything this season, we were going to have to win by hitting the ball. For a month now, we've benched everyone who even looked like they MIGHT start hitting the ball for players that aren't even better than the people they are replacing on defense.

It is ridiculous, and THAT is DePodesta's fault, and THAT is why he and Tracy should both find their dumb #&%*(&# on the street.

Howard, I think you've struck one of Steve's nerves.

It is true that DePodesta can gain control of the lineup if he DFA'd some of Tracy's faves. What would Tracy's reaction be if we traded JT to Tampa Bay for a PTBNL?

I guess I'm descending into nihilism now.

"I expect high quality at the corners...the top teams have that, and until we get it, we won't contend for the world series..."
-----

Of course, having good players at the corners wins championships.

Unless being strong up the middle wins championships.

Oh, wait! I've got it! Strong starting pitching wins championships.

No, of course not -- everybody knows that a strong bullpen wins championships.

You know what? Maybe it's strong teams that win championships. Maybe teams that make up for weaknesses in one spot by being strong somewhere else win championships. Maybe we shouldn't worry so much about making definitive statements that you can't win a championship without a strong [insert position here]. Because such statements are, frankly, 100% manure. You can win a championship with any kind of team, as long as your strengths outnumber your weaknesses.

I meant JP.

i just noticed that laroche needs to improve on one thing before he breaks the home run record with us... plate discipline. if he would walk he would be the new messiah (of the only messiah, depending on your religion)

can we just DFA JT instead?

99

Howard I think you are great and enjoy your sense of humor but you are making two different arguments.

Okay, let's not get too heated in here.

A separate game thread will be coming soon - watch for it.

DFA them all, and let God sort them out.

To Eric from last thread:

By the way I picked up a copy of your W.S. book earlier this year. It is really an excellent book.

Echo that. Love the history in the book. And the photographs!

It's not only a great coffee table book, it's large enough to replace a coffee table with the addition of legs... :)

Also, thanks for recommending Looking For Alaska.

109 Awesome post. I have heard too many cliches like "xxxx wins championships."

109 Amen, bruthah.

Anyone heard any news on whether or not Beltran will play tonight?

Thanks, Jim. I keep mine by the door so I can smash intruders over the head with it. ;)

Can't win a championship without a strong bench. And we certainly have one of those.

120 Yeah, I heard it's made of solid oak, rather than the usual pine.

They used the pine for Tracy's brain.

120 I know Steve was being ironic, but it has occurred to me that the Yankees in the 90s won so often in part BECAUSE they had a lousy bench (and the starters stayed healthy). There was zero temptation, the odd Luis Sojo sighting aside, for Torre to screw around. His bench was so bad that he had no choice but to let his real hitters hit.

118 - nobody's saying, but since he was in the hospital yesterday, I have to believe he won't appear in today's game. He's listed day-to-day.

DePodesta did such a good job last year blowing out all the garbage Tracy was using idiotically at the trade deadline. This is what it is like to have expectations, and see them dashed.

122 They had some pine left over to make some bats for Izturis.

Cliff Floyd also was quoted as saying that his knee is still sore, and that he should've come out of the game after he was hit last night. Beltran spent the night in the hospital and did not accompany the team to L.A. The Mets may be without all three of their starting OFs tonight.

And a glove for Mike Edwards.

125 - I really think that the Jose Cruz signing was in part to force Repko to the bench. And I liked the deal and said so, repeatedly (the "well, he's better than Repko argument). But man, Cruz has just looked AWFUL so far. 5 Ks in his first 6 ABs, and maybe one good swing all told. He has looked like a frightened rookie, completely confused at the plate. I don't understand it. I know he's in decline, but this is ridiculous. Let's hope it's just jet lag (or something). It's one thing for a guy to have a bad year, statistically, but it's another for him to have a bad year, and look so much worse than those bad numbers.

In other news, Valentin "LOOKED" great at 3b last night. 4 outstanding plays.
He's "only" 31. Hopefully, he'll snap out of it. But I fear JT might not start him again, and if he really is this bad (i.e., those bad numbers are not just a slump), the JT will be correct.

129 - Cruz, Jr. has been DFA'd by no fewer than TWO teams over the last month. There is a reason for this.

122 -

Tracy scribbles in the lineup
Without a worthy sign-up
No Choi at first again
With the Dodgers in a spiral
The offense wouldn't be so viral
If he only had a brain.

DePo didn't get us hitters
A roster full of quitters
No trades to save us pain
When he should be bats a-snatchin'
And out fixin' up our catchin'
If he only had a brain

Scareduck, I didn't know you were a poet also. That was really good one.

What an interesting post. Too bad Tracy wouldn't be able to make sense of it if it saved his life.