Will Jim Tracy show any accountability for the disappointment of 2005?

Doubt it. His scrapbook of newspaper clippings tells him he's a genius.

I was wondering why Fernando Valenzuela didn't get mentioned in Keisser's column, but then I saw that he was referring to gifts from Brooklyn.

Tracy won't be falling on his sword. He seems quite humble, yet I've never heard him ever admit to making a mistake.

McCourt's comments seem to excuse Tracy (even praise him) for what he has had to put up with this season. They lay more blame at DePo's doorstep. I think Tracy is totally safe, at least through next season. Hopefully he commits too many errors next season and they finally can him before he ruins the kids.

2 He did eventually admit to the mistake of not bringing in Gagne to pitch to Steve Finley in that D-Backs game a couple years ago. Quantrill, who I believe had terrible numbers against Finley, was brought in and promptly gave up the game-winning HR.

That's the only time I remember him admitting to anything.

Yeah, I can see Tommy being included here. He brought an enthusiasm to the team that Alston just couldn't deliver and oh, how our enemies loved to hate him. He made it more fun to be a Dodger fan.

Here's a quote from the Viewpoint section of today's Times that I thought was pretty hilarious -

"Trivia question: What do you get when you combine the consistency and professionalism of Jeff Kent with the raw talent and heart of Milton Bradley?

Trivia answer: Paul Lo Duca, Adrian Beltre, Alex Cora and Dave Roberts."

Unlike others here, I don't really think Tracy is all that bad as made out and I certainly don't have a bill of indictments against him like Steve does, which, if prosecuted, would force the trial of Jim Tracy to be held in The Hague.

As I think about it more, it's not the nature of managers to admit they made a mistake.

I doubt that Tony La Russa has admitted making a mistake. Nor has Joe Torre or Bobby Cox. Buddy Bell probably thinks he's blameless.

5
I don't believe any of the printed letters in the Times wanted Shawn Green back, which I found unusual.

But the Cult of Alex Cora has made a resurgence.

Just read today's DePo comments.

"Chemistry is definitely important," DePodesta said. "I've said for a long time that it is the difference between major league players and championship players. You have to have the competitiveness and self-esteem to achieve at the highest level."

He said he sought those traits in bringing in players with playoff experience such as Kent, Ledee and Lowe.

"There comes a time when you have to realize that not every player can do everything you want."

That pretty much seals Bradley's death warrant.

In a recent Costas interview, while not pointing out any specific plays or decisions, Tony LaRussa said that his team getting swept in the World Series means he must have done something wrong.

He actually said, "If they sucked, I must have sucked."

He then went on to put down Moneyball.

So will Bradley be patrolling center field in SBC Park next year or is that job now permanently Randy Winn's?

I'm trying to think of teams that could use a power-hitting center fielder.

In the NL West, the Giants and Padres could use Bradley. Arizona has no place to play him since they have to keep Shawn Green around and they young outfielders. The Rockies have enough young guys to play center.

The Cardinals have Jim Edmonds. The Brewers have Brady Clark (well, he might be good next year). The Cubs ???. Hmmm.... The Astros probably don't need Bradley. The Pirates wouldn't know what to do with him.
The Reds have this guy named Griffey.

As for the East, I think the Braves like their CF. The Nationals don't. The Phillies don't have a regular one. The Mets most certainly do. The Marlins probably think Juan Pierre is going to be an offensive force.

The Yankees are going to need a center fielder for 2006.

The pedant in me (which as we know is pretty much my entire personality) should point out that the gifts of the Magi: gold, frankinscence and myrrh, were more of symbolic value than monetary value. The gold was valuable, but the latter two were not. Especially myrrh which was used to cover up the smell of rotting corpses.

They'd better at least offer Bradley arbitration and then trade him, like the Marlins did before sending Encarnacion to LA in 2004.

To non-tender and then watch him go to a division rival would be silly. Sure, he probably won't bring back much in trade, due to the circumstances, but the real issue is having some control over where he goes next year.

The Angels got Izturis and Rivera for Guillen. Bradley may not be Guillen, but he has all 5 tools, plus the legendary 6th tool of patience (he did anyways). A player of his calibre can bring back something decent, attitude problems or not. If he is not offered arbitration and is let go, I will be thoroughly confused, and he might as well go to the Giants and knock us out of the playoffs thanks to stupid decisions

I would love to see Washington try to get by with both Bradley and Guillen on the team. That would be worth the price of admission. Frank Robinson's grumpiness would go off the charts. His grumpiness would have to be measured with a seismograph.

Is it already a done deal that Bradley will be gone next year? I hope not. I think this is as much a problem of losing as it as dealing with volatile people (Kent & Bradley). Or is chemistry simply being able to deal with losing without, well, losing it? I'm certain we wouldn't have had these problems if we were playing like we should have. I don't think Bradley is a bad guy and I think this eruption is at least better than last year's. I just would rather not see him go.

5. As long as their are people that think like that, teams like the A's will continue to win.

I'm going to play the contrarian here and say that DePodesta's acceptance of responsibility was sincere, but it was also cryptic and it doesn't mean what many think it does.

First, there's this quote, "There are definitely things, if we could do over again, we would," he said. "You learn as you go and you hope you don't make the same mistakes the next time. I'll keep to myself what they were so I don't share with the competition what we did wrong."

http://tinyurl.com/7tkjf

I would submit that DePodesta is admitting to making mistakes, but not necessarilly the mistakes alleged by the CW MSM.

Do I know what those mistakes are? I do not. But it might have something to do with the defensive metrics used, or possibly overpaying for starting pitching, and possibly not having enough depth, and almost certainly not insisting enough that the best players must play.

Also, I'm not sure that Milton Bradley doesn't meet DePo's definition of a "championship player." Actually, I think both Kent and Bradley meet the definition.

Further, in terms of trading Bradley, I doubt we'd get anything like fair value. I would think we would offer arbitration (and due to injury and perceived problems his salary will likely be reduced, which would increase his trade value).

In my opinion, when you accept the premise of the CW MSM you've already failed to understand DePo.

All he's doing is pretending to fess up to the MSM's accusations, when in actuality he is admitting to very different mistakes, measured on his own terms and by his own metrics.

Additionally, just because it appears that DePo isn't looking at firing Tracy, don't count on him being back. Why couldn't it be the case that he's attempting to keep Tracy's reputation as a "genius" high to ensure that teams like the Reds would consider hiring him?

I am almost certain that this is DePo's dream situation. He doesn't want to have to deal with the know-nothing media and their irrational obsession with Jim Tracy (and Alex Cora, and Dave Roberts, and etc., etc.). The perfect solution is for Tracy to be offered a job elsewhere.

Then everyone in the Dodgers organization could talk fondly about him, wish him well, and then hire a Macha-clone.

17 - Forgive me, but what does CW MSM mean? I agree that there's probably more to DePo's words than what you might initially think.

16
But the A's can't manufacture runs in the playoffs. You need Alex Cora to do things like that!

Sheesh, everybody knows that!

I can understand people missing Lo Duca. I can understand people missing Beltre's 2004 production, but it's quite likely that these same letter-writers to the Times hated Beltre during his early struggles with the team. And then underestimated how good he was in other years. And they'd they complain that Beltre wasn't playing well enough to earn his money this year.

And I seem to see a dearth of letters by Angels fans complaining about how awful Steve Finley is this year. Baseball Prospectus rates Finley at #881 in VORP. Two Dodgers are worse: Nakamura (887) and Grabowski (910). They rate 914 players, the worst being Cristian Guzman.

CW MSM = Conventional wisdom, mainstream media.

17. I suspect that the Lakers and Phil Jackson will take away some of the media burden in Oct/Nov, whenever DePo decides to Axe Tracy.

6 A rather spectacular exception to Bob's rule is that Lasorda has publicly (and emotionally) regretted letting Niedenfuer pitch to Jack Clark in that notorious playoff game. And yet, I recall Bill James adamantly defending the decision in the Abstract.

17 A problem, I think, is that terms like 'character' and 'chemistry' get thrown around a lot without clearly defining what they mean, or even with the assumption that they mean the same thing. As with Odysseus, that phrase 'championship player' jumped out at me, too. And it's useful that DePo in that interview specifies what he means by 'character:' having the inner drive to excel and win ball games. That is something that, at some level, can probably be quantified (I'll leave it to the sabermetricians to figure out exactly how).

It's also not the same thing as being willing to hold hands with your teammates and sing campfire songs with them. And I think therein lies DePo's criterion for deciding whether or not to keep Bradley: If he and Kent let their personal differences affect on-field performance, they are not 'championship players.' But as long as they perform on the field, it doesn't matter whether they argue like the Hatfields and the McCoys off of it.

Does anybody have a guess as to what it would take to sign Furcal this off-season? Seems to me that when we were really playing well the first two weeks of the year, Izzy was on base constantly.

Difference is Furcal seems to do that on a regular basis and he strikes me as a far better than average fielder.

Unfortunately, Izzy's trade value is nil right now, but Furcal has proven himself over a number of seasons.

Random Dodger game callback

August 27, 1895

Before a crowd of about 1,200 at Eastern Park, Brooklyn used two big innings to rout eleventh place St. Louis, 12-5. The win improved Brooklyn's record to 56-45 and in a tie for fifth place, 8 games behind first place Baltimore and 9 games behind second place Cleveland. The standings were confusing at the time. Baltimore had a higher winning percentage than Cleveland, but had played 8 fewer games. The newspapers reported Brooklyn's record as 57-45, but Brooklyn would later lose a win when a June 1 win against the Pirates was subsequently declared a no contest. The Dodgers had won a forfeit in Louisville on May 23, when Louisville failed to bring enough baseballs to the stadium.

Brooklyn got to St. Louis starter Bill Kissinger early. They knocked him out with five runs on seven hits in the second inning. Reliever Red Ehret calmed things downed until the sixth. Then Brooklyn scored seven runs to put the game away.

Player manager Dave Foutz left his starter Ad Gumbert in the game for seven innings. Foutz brought in rookie Jack Cronin to pitch the last two innings and he gave up two runs in the 8th and 3 runs in the 9th. Cronin would not return to the majors until 1898 and would pitch for six different teams and would eventually return to Brooklyn in 1904.

When the dust cleared at the end of the 1895 season, Brooklyn finished 71-60 and tied for fifth with Boston, 16 ½ games behind first place Baltimore.

Center fielder Mike Griffin was the big star for Brooklyn in 1895. Griffin batted .333 with a .444 OBP. He drew 93 walks and scored 140 runs. First baseman Candy LaChance batted .312 and drove in 108 runs.

Brooklyn's pitching staff was not much to brag about in 1895. Brickyard Kennedy led the staff with 19 wins (against 12 losses), but had an ERA of 5.12. Ed Stein was 15-13 with a 4.72 ERA.

The National League at this time was the domain of the Baltimore Orioles. Brooklyn was going to need some help from syndicate ownership to make themselves pennant contenders again.

Thanks to the New York Times, BaseballReference.com and Retrosheet

17 - as I noted up top, "without specifics."

Furcal 275/338/425 in 499 ABs, 49 BB, 63 K (38 SB, 7 CS - here is an example of a time when stealing bases is worth the risk)
Izturis 257/302/322 in 444 ABs, 25 BB, 51 K (8 SB, 8 CS here is an example of when it is not)

FWIW, here's what Rotoworld's Matthew Pouliot has to say about Furcal: "Furcal's performance over the first few months led to rumors that the Braves would just trade him and go with Wilson Betemit at shortstop the rest of the way. There was probably never any real chance of that happening, though. Furcal bounced back with a huge July and the rumors died leading up to the deadline. The Braves remain very unlikely to re-sign Furcal this winter. He'll be looking for at least $8 million per year, and Atlanta can get just as much offense at shortstop from Betemit. Expect the Diamondbacks, Cubs and maybe the Tigers or Nationals to pursue the leadoff hitter. The Marlins would be a darkhorse if they decided to move Juan Pierre. Prediction: Diamondbacks - five years, $40 million"

http://tinyurl.com/dnm9n

That seems rather steep. I'd rather see if Guzman (JtD) can play SS in the bigs.

26 yes, you did, but it seemed to me that people were drawing conclusions that were unwarranted IMHO

But the Diamondbacks have Royce Clayton to play short? They want to give up on him? But he's very good at sacrificing.
Clayton has never had an OPS+ over 100. He got to 98 with Texas in 1999.

He has a lifetime OBP of .313 (coming into this year) Which is actually higher than Cesar Izturis .293 OBP coming into this year.

27 -

5 yrs and 40 mil does seem a little steep, but on the other hand if I picture him starting at short for the D'Backs, maybe it's at least worth considering. I really would hate to see him wind up with another team in the West.

I may be totally wrong, but I would bet that Guzman will never spend a full season at short for the Blue. If he does his playing in L.A., I have a hunch it will be in the outfield (or at third, if they decide to move LaRoche for someone like Dunn).

30 That's what everyone seems to think about JtD, that he will move to the OF or third. However, I'm not sure why he can't play SS in the bigs. Is it just because he's 6'6"? 28 errors in 100 games sounds like a lot.

By the way, Mr. Fundamentals, Mr. Heart-and-Soul, Derek Jeter had the worst zone rating among regulars from 2001-03...and he won a gold glove in 2004 because it improved to the league average.

I don't know how this would fit into Mr. McCourt's 2006 budget, but I wouldn't mind seeing an opening day lineup of:

Furcal - SS
Bradley-CF(still think we should keep him)
Drew - RF
Dunn - LF
Kent - 2B
Choi - 1B
Perez - 3B
Navarro - C
Penny - P

Of course, that would cost a couple of good prospects to get Dunn, but let's see what DePo can pull off.

Would Rafael Furcal pass the new character test that all prospective Dodgers would have to pass? I believe Furcal has two DUI convictions as well as having a forged birth certificate.

This is of course what you get now when you start to say that "character" is a big issue in player evaluation.

33-

I think chemistry is more important than character and with that in mind, I hereby substitute Sidney Ponson for Penny as my opening day starter

Does anyone have any better defensive stats on JtD? My googling skills have not measured up. All I keep finding is scouts comparing him to Juan Gonzalez.

There is a San Diego Union story today that says the Padres may be leaning toward not resigning Trevor Hoffman for next season.

http://tinyurl.com/7rwwo

35 -
If they're comparing him to Juan Gonzalez, I suggest we trade him quickly before he hurts his back.

putting character aside, should the Dodgers resign Bradley to a long term contract this off-season? he has a ton of talent, but I don't see it consistently. and he has never shown that he can stay in the lineup every day

39 -
Arbitration eligible should mean we only have to go one year

Sorry, I meant 38

39 well, that would limit the financial pain to the decision. assuming that there are no better alternatives, now Milton would just need to stay in the lineup every day

Well, hopefully next year the Dodgers won't have all of the following lose significant time to injuries: Bradley, Drew, Werth, Perez, Gagne, Alvarez, Valentin, Perez, Izturis. (Additionally, hopefully we won't be relying on some of these guys to be starters). The amount of bad luck and injuries suffered this year are uncanny. Last year the low amount was extremely lucky. Odds are there won't be as many injuries next year (although Perez legitimately seems to deserve the label "injury prone.")

its time for tracy to step up to the plate and admit his blunders.
i'll be very dissapionted if depodesta leaves/gets fired and i'll be even more dissapointed if tracy sticks around.
i've been waiting for the dodgers to hire a gm that knows the ability to get on base and hit for power with good pitching wins games, and that is depodesta.
for the most part depodesta has put together that type of team, but the other part of the team is what tracy loves and is just enough to get in the way of winning games.

42 - I would give Milton the ip label also

does anyone remember a game last summer against the Cubs in Chicago? I can't remember it well, but Milton didn't run out a play to first and then came up lame. He may have missed the next game too. I was convinced at the time that he was faking it to cover his lack of hustle

45 -
I've also felt Milton was not displaying enough hustle sometimes, but that really doesn't fit his personality. It may be that he's hurting even more often than we realize but just not saying anything. I seem to remember reading somewhere this morning that the knee problem could be "weeks old".

44 - Yes. Bradley and Drew are probably both injury prone, though I think Bradley may be moreso. All of Drew's issues have been knee related, freak HBP aside. Our best bat to get is still probably an OF, maybe Giles or somebody. Werth (if he's still here) can be a 4th OF, though given he'll be playing behind Bradley and Drew (I hope Bradley stays), he'll probably play in 100 games anyway.

32 - As far as A-Perez in your dream lineup at 3B, has it ever been establised what position(s) he can and cannot play? IIRC, it is either second base or nothing with him. Perhaps a winter of work on his defense can change things.

48 - He's not as bad as he looks (looking at his Rate2). A winter of work there could get him to average. It looks like his biggest problem is ball-bobbling, which I bet is something that can be fixed.

46 - From Will Carroll's UTK notes, earlier this week: Bradley hurt his knee Monday on an awkward baserunning play, though this doesn't seem like an injury that just happened; it's more the type of thing where the hyperextension was the straw that broke the camel's knee.

48 -

I can't justify playing Perez instead of Kent, but I also don't see the logic in playing Valentin or Edwards ahead of Perez at third. I think the jury is still out on Robles. He might be worth platooning with Perez since one hits right and the other left, although I think Robles makes a great first sub at second, third and short, which would give him plenty of playing time.

32--why spend 8 million per year on furcal when we have a furcal without the defense which can be fixed in antonio perez.
the dodgers should work with perez on defense and groom him for ss next year, then move him to 2b when kent leaves and give guzman ss in 2007.

i'd personally like to see in 2006
martin c
choi 1b
drew of
kent 2b
giles of
bradley of
perez ss
mueller 3b

if martin isn't ready then
perez ss
choi 1b
drew of
kent 2b
giles of
bradley of
navarro/mueller
navarro/mueller

i don't think dunn is worth what we would have to give up.

laroche takes over at 3b when he is ready (2007 probably).

and we definately need a penny type starting pitcher for 2006, weaver will be gone, lets upgrade with someone better than weaver, a penny type, then when billingsley is ready (2007) trade lowe (1 year left on his contract), some team would want him for 1 year.

just my 2 cents.

I've been investigating the character of some of the Dodgers big name prospects and I have good news to report.

Russ Martin: super-nice to animals.
JtD: fights corporate crime during the off season.
Chad Billingsly: Good listener/totally respects women.
Andy LaRouche: that scruffy goutee? Worn in protest of Burma's oppression of Aung San Suu Kyi.

Furcal would be a significant improvement at SS. At least a 150 point OPS improvement likely.

Giles in LF would also be a huge upgrade.

Dunn would be a major acquisition:

I can dream...
SS- Furcal
LF- Giles
CF- Drew
RF- Dunn
2b- Kent
1b- Choi
3rd- Perez
C- Navarro
Pitcher

Bench: Robles, Cruz, Ledee, Werth, Saenz

Starters: Penny, Houlton, Lowe, Perez, Billingsley

I definitely believe AP can be a MLB average 3rd basemen. I think he should get as much time there in winterball as possible.

54 -

OK, somebody care to calculate what kind of budget we would need to pull off oldbear's lineup?

We don't have Dreifort or Green on the books next year, so maybe it's possible.

Goatee. Not goutee. Also, I forgot the bad news--

Delwyn Young: wears his goatee in protest of LaRouche's refusing to call Burma, Myanmar. Has called LaRouche a "filthy imperialist". Possible chemistry problem.

54 Giles is a pretty good RF and Dunn is a mediocre LF, you'd probably want to switch them. Also, you'd have to add Phillips, Rose, Martin, someone with an ability to catch

Are we generally targeting something like Dessens, Sanchez, Brazoban, Schmoll/Osoria, Broxton, Gagne for the bullpen? Or do we decline Dessens' option? Since Sanchez has that change working so well consistently, I'm not as fond of trading him as I had been

53,56: Good stuff, bokonon. But I think only the Burmese military government, Japan (who doesn't want to piss anyone off) and The Economist call the place Myanmar. Nice to know Delwyn reads The Economist.

Here's the current 40-man roster, and what I'd do this offseason:

Wilson Alvarez - Gone.
Yhency Brazoban - Keep.
Jonathan Broxton - Keep.
Giovanni Carrara - Probably gone, but I can see the merits of sticking with him if the price is right.
Elmer Dessens - Replaceable, but the comment for Carrara applies here.
Darren Dreifort - Good riddance, although I'll enjoy the memory of attending his start where he K'd a career-best 12 including 7 in the first two innings.
Eric Gagne - Get well soon.
Joel Hanrahan - Just about done as a prospect, I believe.
D.J. Houlton - Listen to offers in the offseason, and if nothing comes of the let him fight for a rotation slot during spring training.
Edwin Jackson - Keep, but listen to offers. (As you can tell, I'm a firm believer in TINSTAAPP.)
Ryan Ketchner - Recovering from TJ surgery.
Derek Lowe - Stuck with him, for the time being.
Franquelis Osoria - Filler.
Brad Penny - Keep.
Odalis Perez - Keep, and pray he finds some consistency.
Duaner Sanchez - Keep, but listen to offers.
Steve Schmoll - K, blto.
Derek Thompson - Showed some potential, but hurt.
Jeff Weaver - I'd try to bring him back, if the money isn't crazy. Considering his agent, though, I'm not optimistic.
Kelly Wunsch - Replaceable.

Paul Bako - Hiya, Coach.
Russell Martin - Keep.
Dioner Navarro - Keep. He and Martin could make a nice platoon someday.
Jason Phillips - Ugh. Philllips' VORP: 4.3. Ishii's VORP: -0.6.
Mike Rose - Gone.

Willy Aybar - Keep.
Hee-Seop Choi - Keep.
Cesar Izturis - Has value, but not if he's thought of as a star. Or a leadoff hitter.
Jeff Kent - Oooh, tricky. I know he's the offensive MVP, but I've never really warmed to his contributions.
Antonio Perez - Whether he stays or goes depends on him finding a position.
Oscar Robles - Decent, as a backup.
Olmedo Saenz - Like him, but I would've already traded him to a contender that needs a bat off the bench.
Jose Valentin - Gone.
Delwyn Young - Keep.

Milton Bradley - Offer him arbitration.
Jose Cruz - Gone.
J.D. Drew - Keep.
Mike Edwards - (The 40-man has him as an outfielder. I thought the CW was he's a butcher out there.) Gone. He's not young, turning 29 in November.
Ricky Ledee - Keep, as the top reserve outfielder.
Jason Repko - Keep, as a potential 5th outfielder.
Cody Ross - Gone.
Jayson Werth - Keep, but don't rely on his health.

51 - I can't justify playing Perez instead of Kent, but I also don't see the logic in playing Valentin or Edwards ahead of Perez at third.
That's the problem with Perez, in that he's not good enough to push Kent aside. (Not many are.) But his defense at third, at the moment, is a liability, IMO. So, you've got a fine bat that you can't fully utilize.

55 This isn't perfect, just a rough estimate using Jon's sidebar salaries

Assume we lose Weaver ($8.5 mil), Valentin ($3.5 mil), Green ($10 mil), Dreifort ($13 mil), Alvarez ($2 mil), and we trade Bradley for prospects ($2.5 mil). That's $39.5 mil, but a lot of that goes to salary increases. The following sums are guesses, likely terrible guesses. We then sign Saenz for a $2 mil upgrade, Furcal for $8 mil, Giles for $10 mil, and Dunn ends up with a $10 mil contract. Then it seems we could do this. However, that's assuming we go with nothing new in the bullpen or rotation. I'm also assuming we pick up Dessens' option.

60 -
I would definitely start him at third for every game for the rest of the year. That would give us a better picture as to how good a hitter he is, how good a third baseman he might be and how much trade value he has.

61 -

Assuming you're somewhere close, how far does that put us from 100 mil?

What evidence is there that Perez can't play 2B (or 3B, or SS for that matter) other than Jim Tracy's say so?

57-- i agree that change up has turned sanchez around and has made me a believer.
i wasn't addressed about this but i would keep dessens, he's a good reliever and can spot start.
gagne,sanchez,dessens,broxton,brazoban,kuo,and either schmoll or osoria, the other as a callup when or if an injury.

upgrade weaver's spot in the rotation, a penny type, this is key, cause i don't think billingsley will be ready.

64- Our lying eyes. He looks, um, rough in the field. Is that a good enough reason for him to ride pine for the rest of the year? Nope. Still. . .

65 -

I agree that Billingsly won't be ready, but how do you upgrade Weaver's spot in the rotation without spending much more than you want to?

61-- odalis perez has a whopping 6.5 million jump in salary next year, backloaded contract.

my educated guess on the salaries:
SS- Furcal- 8.5 mil (4yrs 34 mil)
LF- Giles- 8.5 mil (3yrs 25.5 mil)
CF- Drew- 11 mil
RF- Dunn- 8 mil (arby)
2b- Kent- 9 mil
1b- Choi- 1.2 (arby)
3rd- Perez- 350k
C- Navarro-350k

total: 46.9

IMO, a little bit too high.

More Rotoworld on projected FA signings.

SPs: http://tinyurl.com/2rvxg

Of note:

Jeff Weaver (Dodgers) - In my opinion, Weaver is the best long-term investment among this year's group of free-agent starting pitchers. ... $32 million over four years wouldn't make him a bargain, but who is going to provide better value? He might stay put in Los Angels, although that would lock the Dodgers into a lot of long-term contracts with starters. Prediction: Blue Jays - four years, $32 million

Matt Morris (Cardinals) ...Prediction: Nationals - four years, $36 million

A.J. Burnett (Marlins) - With Tim Hudson and Chris Carpenter agreeing to multiyear deals, Burnett is clearly the top pitcher on the market...Prediction: Yankees - five years, $65 million

Jarrod Washburn (Angels) - ...Prediction: White Sox - four years, $28 million

Esteban Loaiza (Nationals) - Prediction: Dodgers - two years, $9 million

OFs http://tinyurl.com/csczk

Johnny Damon (Red Sox) ...Prediction: Red Sox - five years, $47.5 million

Brian Giles (Padres) ...Prediction: Astros - two years, $18 million

Matt Lawton (Cubs) ...Prediction: Cubs - two years, $12 million

Adam Dunn is making $4.6 million, and I believe the arbitration numbers thrown around are between $9 and 11 million.

67-- good question, a trade that includes izturis, maybe throw in repko and/or phillips and/or jackson.

i would have houlton and jackson in the back end of the rotation for next year. try and trade odalis and lowe, resign weaver and trade for another starter.

i know, its a lot to do, but im not comfortable with odalis or lowe.

It won't happen, but I for one would actually like to long-term Bradley for a fairly low price. His fragility worries me more than his "character," but there are very CFs with good defense and legitimate power. We're also awfully thin at the position in the farm.

In my ideal scenario, Bradley makes some sort of bury-the-hatchet remark to the media re: Kent, and then DePo/McCourt congratulate with him with something like a 3 yr/9 mil deal (random number I'm throwing out). However, I think McCourt is genuinely miffed at Milton (the only accurate thing I believe we can infer from Plaschke's column), so ownership may kill this idea. However, I think DePo's real opinions are something of a cipher, as they always are.

What I'd like to know if if Gurnick's information that Milton is probably done as a Dodger comes from just players, or if he has a source from the front office/ownership.

WWSH

68 Didn't know the exact amount, but I did leave room for that in my post. Gagne will receive some money as well, as will Choi and the guys not available for arbitration. I also forgot to get rid of Izzy's contract for prospects based on oldbear's line up

We have a good year for arbitration, assuming Bradley is traded. He, Choi, Phillips, and Carrara are all eligible, and if they aren't traded, the latter 2 can be non tendered

70-- no on loaiza.

Harking way back to 11. Dodger Stadium could use some myrrh right now. Cuz there's 25 corpses (corpsi?) stinking up the joint right now.

billz pitching now
southernguide.tv

70-- no on loaiza.

why?

71 -

If you can "upgrade" from Weaver by trading Izturis, Repko and Phillips, I think we need to get rid of DePo today and move you into that chair.

Jackson is another story, but as of today his trade value is still pretty low also.

Do you have a name in mind for this pitcher to replace Weaver?

69 That's a lot, represents about half the payroll. However, Gagne, Penny, Lowe, and Odalis are the only other guys making anything. After Gagne, we're looking at one of the best value to the dollar bullpens in the league. Saenz, Cruz, and Ledee would make around $10 mil, a backup catcher should be around a $1 mil. Robles, Aybar, Werth, Jackson, Houlton, Billingsley, etc won't make more than $3-4 mil

79 Assuming Bradley's not involved in some 3 way for Dunn, he along with a prospect and one of those guys could bring a Weaver-esque pitcher at the very least

teams are going to throw crazy amounts of money at Weaver and Burnett. I hope it doesn't inflate the market like happened last year, but I am sure there are teams out there willing to overspend.

I would also imagine that the LA Times will be cheerleading for DePo to be among those looking to throw crazy amounts of money at those guys and if we don't sign them, they will again throw a temper tantrum, and Weaver will go down in history as a homegrown, All-American heart-and-soul-boy who Dodgers management stupidly let leave town. (His temper tantrums will of course be forgotten, only the good memories are the ones that count).

That said, Weaver is the pitcher I'd most like among him, Lowe, and Perez, but I think he'll be gone.

59- Good post, here's what I would do
Wilson Alvarez - will retire
Yhency Brazoban - Keep
Jonathan Broxton - Keep
Giovanni Carrara - Good bye
Elmer Dessens - is useful as a spot starter, would keep for under $1 million
Darren Dreifort - will retire
Eric Gagne - Keep
Joel Hanrahan - isn't DONE as a prospect (only 22-23 years old), but won't be protected
D.J. Houlton - Keep, he could be a solid #5
Edwin Jackson - Keep, his value is too low to trade him
Ryan Ketchner - will not be protected, will probably stay with the Dodgers
Derek Lowe - trade him if Weaver stays, durable, but nothing special. A #3 starter
Franquelis Osoria - Keep, good control, groundball pitcher
Brad Penny - Keep
Odalis Perez - Keep, can be very good when healthy
Duaner Sanchez - Keep, agree I'd also listen to offers for Sanchez
Steve Schmoll - Keep
Derek Thompson - won't be protected, because of TJ surgery will stay with the Dodgers
Jeff Weaver - offer him arb, will probably leave as a FA
Kelly Wunsch - Keep for 1/2 Million, why not? Solid LOOGY

Paul Bako- Gone
Russell Martin- Will share catching job with Navarro
Dioner Navarro - Will share catching job with Martin
Jason Phillips - Goodbye Mr. Clutch. Nontender
Mike Rose - Bye
Willy Aybar - Keep, could replace Antonio Perez, plays better defense
Hee-Seop Choi - Keep, but don't hand him the 1B job, bring in solid backup
Cesar Izturis - Keep, his value is too low right now
Jeff Kent - listen to offers, he could bring in a lot of talent.
Antonio Perez - Keep if Tracy is gone, otherwise trade him to a team that will play him, Aybar could replace him
Oscar Robles - Keep....as a backuo
Olmedo Saenz - Probably won't retire like he said he would, would get larger offers with more playing team from a team in the AL
Jose Valentin - Bye
Delwyn Young - should spend another year in the minors, what position will he play?

Milton Bradley - offer him arb. and keep him! Otherwise, try to trade him for Brad Wilkerson (Bowden is dumb)
Jose Cruz - Bye
J.D. Drew - Keep
Mike Edwards - Bye
Ricky Ledee - Keep, very solid backup
Jason Repko - Keep, can sort of play defense and pinch run
Cody Ross - Bye, someone will probably claim him
Jayson Werth - Keep...as a backup

Offseason Questions:
1. Will Bradley/Kent be back?
2. Who will play 3B?
3. Who is the 1st baseman?
4. Will Weaver be back?
5. Will Lowe or Perez be traded?
6. Who will be the Dodgers starting LF in 2006?

Answers
1. Bradley: No, will be traded, Kent: Yes
2. ???
3. Choi
4. No
5. No
6. Not Werth, Depo will make a trade for a LF

Depo must improve the bullpen this offseason. Look at what the Padres did last offseason.. Chris Hammond, Rudy Seanez...and picking up Quantrill half way through the year. Their bullpen is solid.

81 -

Now you're talking a prospect plus Bradley plus one of those three guys, instead of all three of those guys. That's a very different deal.

Just out of curiosity, who are we comparing with Weaver? Names please.

Billingsley struggling right now. He has walked 2 of the first 3 batters.

http://interface.audiovideoweb.com/gplnk/690

78-- loaiza's career stats h/9 10.19 hr/9 1.14 w/9 2.62 k/9 5.86 whip 1.42
those are worse than lowe's career stats.

loaiza's having a career year this season, but his career stats are terrible.

Here is my opening starting for 2006.
SS Furcal
CF J.Jones
RF Drew
LF Dunn
2B Kent
1B Choi or a FA
3B Robles or Perez
C Navarro
P Lowe

Billingsley gets out of the inning without allowing a run eventhough he walked 2 and threw 2 wild pitches.

This post is not really on the topic of the thread. However, I did spend a lot of time with a spreadsheet this morning and my work becomes outdated in a few hours, so here it is.

Earlier this year, there was some talk about the Dodgers taking lots of pitches, getting the opposing starter pitch counts up and feasting on middle relief. (Obviously, this was much earlier.) I am not sure how much driving up opponents' pitch count in itself actually matters for winning, but I was curious about difference between hitters in their "pitch absorption," so I did some looking and spreadsheeting to see who on the Dodgers makes opposing pitchers inefficient.

That it makes the going tough for opposing pitchers is one benefit of having lots of high OBP guys in the lineup, more people on base, more plate appearances, more likely to get shots at the worst the opposition has to offer (tired starters and middle relievers). But there are also guys like Jeff Reboulet in 2001. He got on base alright, but his exceptional pitch absorption was primarily due to fouling off strike three several times before going down. He averaged 4.48 pitches per PA that year to lead all players with at least 200 at bats, edging out Rickey Henderson for the title.

Without looking too closely, folks who have high P/PA numbers do tend to have them year after year. Bobby Abreu is consistently above 4, so was Ricky Henderson. Not surprisingly, these guys also have high OBP, but again, just glancing at the leaders, it seems that P/PA and OBP are actually different. For example, Barry Bonds, even as his on base numbers went through the roof in 2004 averaged fewer than 4 pitches per PA. It would take more work then I want to do to find out if the apparent independence of these measures is consistent or random noise, but the differences appear to be real.

Getting on base is valuable for scoring runs, but for pitch absorption, its value is that an out has been saved, requiring more pitches. If we imagine that one batter will make every plate appearance in a game, and the batter has, for example, an on-base percentage of .333, it will take on average about 40.5 plate appearances for the pitcher to get 27 outs (PA/27). In 2004, it would have taken almost 69 plate appearances for Bonds to make 27 outs. Multiplying the expected plate appearances by the average p/pa for the batter yields the number of pitches it would take to get that batter out 27 times (P/27). This overstates the number of pitches slightly (in the case of the Dodgers 152 expected to 144 actual) primarily because some batters make out after reaching base and so don't gain another PA. It also could be because not all games have 27 outs.

Dividing the PA/27 by the number of spots in the lineup gives an estimate of that player's contribution to the opponent's pitch count, without consideration of batting order. So by this estimate, Robles has contributed four more pitches to the opposing pitchers' pitch count than Izturis per game. This doesn't seem like much to me, though the difference is probably slightly greater when the leadoff spot is at stake.

Perez does not have the highest OBP of the 2005 Dodgers (.384 to Drew's .412) nor the highest P/PA (4.23 to Werth's 4.56) but he has had the most pitch absorption power.

Werth's 4.56 pitches/PA is only slightly above his 4.43 career average. Valentin also has a history of seeing lots of pitches, though his 2005 is a bit more of an aberration from his career average of 3.94.

Note that in his glorious summer of 2001 Jeff Reboulet forced pitches out of Dodger opponents at a higher rate than any of this year's Dodgers.

Player OBP P/PA P/27 Divided By 9
Perez. .384 4.23 185 20.6
Werth .327 4.56 183 20.3
Vlntin .346 4.44 183 20.3
Drew. .412 3.88 178 19.8
Rbles. .354 4.23 177 19.7
Choi. . .340 3.95 162 18.0
Nvrro .393 3.65 162 18.0
Saenz .344 3.84 158 17.6
Kent . .376 3.60 156 17.2
Ledee .348 3.65 151 16.8
Brdley .350 3.59 149 16.6
Repko .285 3.95 149 16.6
Cruz.. .325 3.70 148 16.4
Iztris. .302 3.64 141 15.7
Edwds .301 3.59 139 15.4
Phllps .293 3.52 134 14.9
Grabs .228 3.59 126 14.0
Team Avg .327 3.79 152 16.9

Actual Dodgers P/Game 144

For Comparison
..............P/27 Divided by 9
Abreu... 05 201 22.4
Dunn... 05 189 21.0
Dellucci 05 188 20.9
Giambi. 05 200 22.3
Bonds.. 04 270 30.0
Reboulet 01 191 21.2

Sorry about the columns. It's tough to get them straight.

As long as we're talking trade, who are the Dodgers that improved their value over the season?
Sanchez - It's always fun to make other GMs overpay for talent you picked up on the cheap.
Houlton - Ibid.
A. Perez
Robles
Who else?

87 that is a fantasy. And if you're going to fantasize, why oh why would you have Robles, who is essentially Cesar Izturis starting at 3B?

Also J. Jones? Bleh. I'd much rather have Milton, and if we're going to get rid of him, we'd do much better to move Drew to CF and sign Giles to play RF.

82- Yeah, but all DePo or McCourt have to say is that [insert big name FA here] is of poor character. Like, I heard that Burnett collects unwanted kittens in a potato sack, and then drowns them all in the hotel fountains.

I'm really starting to dig this character stuff. You don't have to make any sense, and it can't be contradicted.

89 speaking of Abreu, isn't Philly supposedly unhappy with him, seemingly oblivious that he is a superstar? Maybe he is a possible trade candidate?

92 -

Since it's being done in hotel fountains, I assume he does this on road trips.

Maybe his character is acceptable on homestands and we can sign him just for home games.

91. Ok, Drew in CF, Giles in RF, and Perez at 3B. Would that make you happy because that would my team if I was a GM.

92 good point. I'll revise and amend my comments about Jacque Jones to include that I've heard he cheated on a fourth grade long division exam, is a poor tipper, and he repeatedly breaks wind in the clubhouse and blames it on Michael Cuddyer.

Houlton's last four GS: 2.49 ERA in 25-1/3 IP, 7.8 K/9, 3.14 K/BB. And he's 0-3.

97 -

Other than Penny, I'd rather get rid of any starting pitcher on the current staff than Houlton. I think he's shown a lot more than anyone else with far fewer results. And he works cheap!

Dessens has a $1.3 mil optin for next year, or a $250K buyout. At 15 starts, the option is worth more, but 10 more starts will be a challenge. Someone earlier said to keep him only if he is under $1 mil, so do we pick up the option or buy him out? The way he's pitched will get him a contract similar to his option, so a pay decrease really is out of the question. The option is also mutual, so he could get out of it if he wants. What do we do with him? I say pick up the option and hope he does the same

95 that would make me happy, but I stil think signing Giles and Furcal and trading for Dunn is a pipedream. Perhaps we could get Lawton and Giles, but I would think that would be the extent of it. I doubt we'll get Furcal and I think whoever does will overpay based on last year's SS numbers. David Eckstein got 3 years, $10.25 million! Orlanda Cabrera is making 6 million. Nomar 8.25. Furcal is better than any of them. Scary.

why isnt guzman playing

Houlton is a poor man's Jeff Weaver. I don't even know what that means, but it would pass for analysis in the LA Times.

101 Guzman is playing he hit into a double play in the first inning.

Does anyone feel comfortable with this as our rotation? I don't.

Penny
Lowe
Perez
Houlton
Jackson

What is our avg runs scored per game this year vs. last year? I think some of the mediocre starting pitching can be due to the starters' lack of confidence in the team's ability to score runs. Granted that's a lousy attitude, but they probably figure we'll always manage to score one less run than they give up.

102 -

Poor man's Weaver is right. Look at the difference in what they'll earn next year.

guzman is DHing.

104-- i don't either, jackson should not be rushed, he has no control right now.

pitching is mainly what wins games and we need another brad penny in that rotation.
i wish i could clone penny.

Houlton as a starter is: 4.42 ERA, 75.1 IP, 9 HR, 23 BB, 58 K

Houlton: 4.42 ERA, 1.07 HR/9, 2.75 BB/9, 6.95 K/9, .60 HBP/9, 5.79 IP/S
Weaver: 4.41 ERA, 1.40 HR/9, 1.87 BB/9, 6.02 K/9, .67 HBP/9, 6.42 IP/S

Houlton walks more batters, but Ks more and gives up fewer HRs. Their HBPs are surprisingly close (I only include that because Weaver hits so many). Their ERAs are practically identical. The biggest difference is the IP per start, although Houlton has been much better since he's limited pitches in the 1st

104-- i don't either, jackson should not be rushed, he has no control right now.

this is based on what? one big league start? at jacksonville, his walk rate was 2.61/9IP

furcal? Id rather have robles at the league minimum than furcal at anything like what cabrera or renteria got. Does anyone think that the this years FA market for pitchers will be any better than last years. After being forced to sign Lowe for $36/4yrs because he was forced to, i doubt that Depodesta makes the same mistake twice. I think we should let weaver walk, his adaquate ERA is only the result of Dodger Staduim; seems like trading for an Aaron Harang/Cory Lidle type would be better. Save the money for outfield offense since its seems clear that the farm system will help out in the infield.

What about Willy Aybar at 3rd. Seeing how successful Navarro has been, I would think that Aybar could but up a 260/340/400 line. The big plus from him is excellent defense. Are there anyother decent options at 3rd in the FA market? I would think that Aybar could match most of them offensively, while being cheaper and providing better defense.

I would like to see this infield:
1B: Kent
2B: Perez
3B: Aybar
SS: Robles

I would trade one of either saenz or choi (probably saenz because you could get more for him). I would also trade izturis to who ever looses the rafael furcal sweepstakes. I wouldnt mind signing Garciaparra to a 1 year deal to play SS. I think the infield defense would be upgraded in this alignment. While we loose some at shortstop (with either robles or garciaparra), we would gain at 3B,2B, and 1B. As long as the outfield is productive offensively, i think it would work.

89
Are Barry Bonds' numbers skewed by the number of intentional walks he received? He often would see just four pitches.

Robles will see more pitches because pitchers actually try to get him out and throw the ball over the plate, which he tries to foul off.

109 -

Considering the only reason Houlton is even on the roster is because of Rule 5, I think you have to disregard the first part of the season. In fact, how about disregarding all of his relief innings and the first 2 or 3 starts (to get his feet wet). What do the stats look like if you do that?

One thing Weaver and Houlton have in common is that their second halves have been a lot better.

IMHO, Houlton has shown a lot, considering his total lack of experience, and he's getting better, even after some teams have seen him twice.

The best thing that could happen in the next month is that jackson gives us some hope that he can start next year. Hows that for acceptance?

If Jackson can fill the spot vacated by weaver, that means the Dodgers wont have to get involved in the FA market for pitchers, which is a good thing. If pitching is overvalued, shouldnt you be putting your money in hitters?

Alex Cintron hit a 2-run homer off of Jon Lieber in the 7th to give the DBacks a 2-0 lead.

Webb has thrown 111 pitches, so it will be time for the crack AZ bullpen, with its 6.36 ERA.

Giants lead the Mets 2-1 in the 7th.

111 Saenz is a FA, last year was his last arbitratin year.

113 Those stats are as a starter only. As a starter, he's had only one absolutely terrible start (6 runs is 2 IP). In every other start, he's gone at least 5 IP and has never given up more than 4 runs

110-- nate, cmon its not just 1 big league start, jackson has been like this for awhile.
yes his w/9 in jacksonville has been fine, but he was terrible in las vegas, and i do consider the pcl being a hitter freindly league, but also practicly all of his appearances in the big leagues he's had control problems.

i'm not saying jackson s___ks, i'm just saying another year in the minors would be good for him, no need to rush him, heck if you say jackson is ready then billingsley is certainly ready, i don't think either one of them are yet.

billingsley is definately a better prospect then jackson.

111 Garciaparra is terrible, his defense is awful, his offense hasn't been all that great either recently, and he now has the dreaded (and probably deserved) "injury prone" label.

Schmidt walked the bases loaded, 2 outs with Reyes up and he actually takes some pitches. Popped up on a 2-2 count; strike 2 was a questionable strike that he swung at

Month by month, Houlton has had an odd season:
April - In limited action (8-2/3 IP), befitting a Rule 5 rookie, Holton compiles an ERA of 2.08 despite allowing a BAA of .389.
May - Growing pains. 12.96 ERA in 8-1/3 IP.
June - Into the rotation. With an ERA of 4.30 in 29-1/3 IP (5 GS), he compiles a record of 4-1.
July - 0-3 with a 6.20 ERA. He pitches in five games, four starts, for 24-2/3 IP.
August - Bad luck. 0-3 in four GS (25-1/3 IP) , although he has a quality ERA (2.49) and BAA (.187).

119. obviously. But id rather have for $5/1yr than furcal at $32/4yrs. Whats the downside if you sign garciaparra; he gets injured and you play robles at the position? If you upgrade the other 3 infield positions defensively, i think its worth the risk.

117 (Houlton) -

And he's shown a real ability to get out of jams (especially for a younger pitcher).

I look forward to seeing him as one of our 5 starters next year.

im just saying that labeling jackson as "no control" is not accurate because his last 62 innings in the minors, his control has been very very good.

and no, i consider billingsley a better prospect than jackson but i do consider both capable of pitching in the bigs right now. I dont think we are rushing edwin, this is where he should be.

122 -

Nomah might have his hands full getting a decent offer this fall. He might like to come home to play and it wouldn't surprise me to see DePo make him an offer for one year. He couldn't be much less productive than Valentin.

122 the downside is that you are paying $5 million for, essentially, Antonio Perez (but with worse defense). Perez has an 817 OPS this year and will likely only get better. Garciaparra's OPS from 2001 on: 814, 880, 870, 842, 634. That's a player in clear decline (and GP during that time: 21, 156, 156, 81, 29).

russ martin 2 run homerun to right field. it was a line drive. nice.

martin 2 run homer.

Russell Martin, Canadian Mountee of Walks... And Heart just homered.

Russell Martun just hit a two-run homerun to give the Suns the lead. Some lucky person won free burritos for the whole year thanks to Martin.

126. This year consists of all of 100 ab's. Id love to have 2 antonio perez's, one at 2B and one at SS.

haha 4 russ martin homerun reports in a row. the suns are getting plenty of viewers i see.

And now people in giant sumo wrestling outfits are sumo wrestling.

132. At this point, im more interested in Jacksonville than the dodgers.

Plotting next year's roster and watching the Suns game equals Mass Acceptance

132. At this point, im more interested in Jacksonville than the dodgers.

same. but i am goign to be watching the dodgers tonight because of young edwin.

the ump is giving billz a lot of the strikezone extended. i think its because billz is the curt schilling of the southern league.

137 - Is he uh, "outspoken" like that? Or just the way he pitches?

darnit, no more no no for billz. oh well. lets just go for the shutout now.

Oooh, the Birmingham Barons! Is MJ playing?

im just talking about him on the mound and the Ks he racks up fanerman.

136. If jackson wasnt pitching i probably wouldnt watch.

woo! laroche, great play. saves a run.

just incase nobody mentioned it before, here are the specifics of DePos news conference. he basically said that he would have probably done a couple of things differentely last offseason and he hopes that he wont ever have an offseason like last year. he said that saying anything else would be a lie. i feel for him

112. Bob- I'm sure they are. The point was that P/PA and OBP are related but one does not seem to be a proxy for the other. Now that you mention it, Bonds isn't a good example for a number of reasons. But, if you look at the career OBP and P/PA stats for Bobby Abreu and Adam Dunn on the one hand and JD Drew and Albert Pujols on the other, they all have high OBP and P/PA and when one metric goes up the other often does too. However, Abreu and Dunn consistently see more pitches per PA. I could be wrong, but it seems like they measure different things.

Depo offered Nomar (probably at McCourt's request) a 3 year contract for $27 million to play 2B/3B last offseason. Nomar turned it down, then Depo signed Kent to a 2 year contract. Nomar has been injured for 2 straight years, so I doubt Depo will want him now. We need some more DURABLE players. Wilkerson is a pretty durable player ;)

131 I'd rather not unless we can get him for a couple mil less.

3B Perez (LaRoche waiting in the wings, Perez moves to 2B in 2007)
CF Bradley (Drew if Bradley traded)
RF Drew (Giles if Bradley traded)
2B Kent
LF Giles (? Dunn Lawton)
1B Choi
SS JtD
C Navarro/Martin

Rotation
Penny
Lowe
FA/surprise trade acquisition
Houlton
Jackson
Help coming from minors

146. For the record i want robles as our starting SS. How about bradley for wilkerson?

147. What do you do with O. Perez?

The DBacks beat the Phillies 2-0. So much for being in second by ourselves.

148 I would take wilkerson for sure. He would be an ideal leadoff hitter and is good at the plate and in the field. Even taking "character" out of the equation this is an upgrade, although Wilkerson is uncharacteristically having a bad year.

Depo offered Nomar (probably at McCourt's request) a 3 year contract for $27 million to play 2B/3B last offseason. Nomar turned it down, then Depo signed Kent to a 2 year contract.

i never heard that at all. could i get a link to back that up please.

149 he would be traded, if possible, for, in part, or a combination, of a different SP, Dunn, Wilkerson, prospects, whatever.

151 You can thank RFK for the bad year. He hasn't been great on the road, but there has been a pretty big difference. He's starting to pick it up in August

I wonder if Nomar would be more willing to sign after this season. Though I dunno if we'd want to sign him at this point... adding another injury prone player.

152. ive heard that this offseason, depodesta originally targeted nomar and radke, but was forced to settle on kent and lowe.

155 if we can get him cheap and it's an okay risk, then you can hope JtD tears up AAA and bring him up in, say, June. If he wants too much, then no. It depends on how much $ we are talking about, that is my real issue.

I would like an infield of:
1b: Dunn (Jackson, Werth, Navarro, Brazoban *rather give up someone like orenduff than jackson but doubt the reds would take that)
2b: Kent
ss: Perez (his original position)
3b: Aybar or Nomar (if we could sign him cheap on a short contract)
c: Martin (I think he is ready now. I really do not see him improving much if we keep him in the minors longer)

from jons threeway convo with henson and some other guy, henson said depo targeted radke and clement but settled for lowe and odalis. nothing about nomah.

The NL West is 2-0 today!

Giants win 2-1.

Giants have also won. Dodgers are going to need to win against Oswalt to not lose a game to Arizona and San Francisco. I predict a 1 run loss

arghh loneys had an unlucky day. two line drives ripped, but right at a defender.

I'd also like to think we would consider the possibility of JtD in LF. Then Bradley or Drew or Wilkerson in CF. And Drew or Giles in RF. Or Dunn in LF/1B.

148- that's what I was thinking about- it was in my earlier post.

152- I read about it in the LA Times. It might have been in a Tim Brown article.

I definitely wouldn't want Nomar now.

wow billz is hitting 95 in the 7th on the slow jax gun.

CG 1 hit shutout for billingsley.

in his last 28IP or something like that, hes given up only 2 ER.

Interesting NY Times article:

http://tinyurl.com/9od93

Ummm...that guy in the stands is creepy.

Why was the game only 7 innings?

I wouldn't mind getting Giles and Nomar (I like Nomar, he went to my elementary school) to somewhat short term contracts. Werth and Perez are able back-ups and will get plenty of playing time. We have Guzman, LaRoche, and others that should be ready soon. Then we can try figuring something out about pitching.

the game was only 7 because they are playing a double header today.

168 - I heard something about it being a double-header because yesterday was postponed so they made it shorter. I wasn't really paying attention though.

Who's pitching in game 2? Will it be on TV?

Is the Curse of Steve lifting? Oakland leads Baltimore 12-3 and the Devil Rays just went ahead of the Angels 2-1. If the scores hold, Oakland would be just 1/2 game back.

Steve Finley has a 379 OPS in August.

william jaurez is pitching in the second game, but broxton will probably pitch in the later end of the game.

Dont post here much but i read a lot.

I think what we need to do is follow the model that Beane has laid down this year. Namely bringing in good defensive players, since we got a bunch of young pitchers coming up and they'll need the help.

Here's my lineup:

3b Robles/Perez
SS Furcal
Lf Wilkerson (for Bradley)
2B Kent
CF Drew
RF Giles
1b Loney
C Navarro/Martin(he is ready)

I think you keep Jackson and Houlton in the rotation and Broxton also is given a chance to win a spot in the rotation. If not he goes to the bullpen, drop Carrara and bring in (drumroll please...) Lima he can fill the vet bullpen presence and "character" problems in one shot. Bring up Kuo and resign Wunsch. Also I would trade either Lowe or Perez. More Perez because he is injured too much lately. Also i know i am in the minority but I would have Loney play 1st, i think his glove is already there and his bat is better than most people think.

Dodgers have a triple double header today, Columbus and Vero both play 2 as well. First Vero game was lackluster, Jamie Hoffman led the offense for 1 run. Pilkington gave up 5

175- Loney isn't ready, we aren't getting Furcal, Robles/Perez probably won't be the starting 3B. Let's see what Jackson can do the rest of the year before we declare him one of our 5 starting pitchers for next year.

177 -

Geez, Uncle Miltie, don't be so grouchy. We are getting Furcal, Jackson will win 20 and I hear we're negotiating with the Yanks to trade Odalis for the Babe and Mickey M.

I think Loney has a great approach at the plate and if we can get enough offense in other postions like with Furcal, Wilkerson and Giles, he can be kept in the lineup. Plus his bat has awoken the last 2 months and I think we are seeing now with Loney is the real Loney.

The Furcal thing is more of a wish.

I agree with you on Jackson. I am hopeful he has a good start today and works out for next year.

Im a glass half full kinda guy.

Headed out the door to cheer on Edwin in a losing cause against Oswalt.
I'm sure it has already been posted here but if not here is the link the BA article on our Suns.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/features/050826jax.html

Evidently Depo/White had a plan for filling the outfield with 6 year minor league veterans. Just reading the article makes me giddy about the future, especially the way the players who were on Vero Beach talk about the talent they left behind when they got promoted.

173. Didnt the Angels give Steve Finley a 2 year deal? I wonder what next year will be like?

I'd like to see Loney spend another year in the minors. Furcal's career OPS is .753. Still he's one of the best SS in the NL. On the other hand (like someone else pointed out), Furcal is a two time DUI offender. Not exactly the type of character the McCourt is probably looking for in a player.

Re: 167

Thanks, Bob, for that good article. The current feud in baseball really has become to some extent a "theological dispute."

WWSH

I need help. On Baseball Prospectus radio's podcast from today, I hear them talking about a potential trade of Brian Giles that might go down this week. If that's so, couldn't the dodgers claim him? I don't understand waiver rules at all, so any help is appreciated.

Are you sure that's a current podcast? Supposedly the Cardinals wanted to get Giles earlier in the year.

I know the Dodgers, Giants, DBacks, and Rockies aren't great, but the Padres have to win some games don't they?

[185} it was today's, I'm sure.

55.

SS- Furcal (32 mils 4 years) 8.0 mils
RF- Giles (17 mils 2 years) 8.5 mils
CF- Drew- (44 mils 4 years) 11 mils
LF- Dunn- (8 mils 1 year) 8 mils
2b- Kent (8.5 mils 1 year) 8.5 mils
1b- Choi- (1 mils 1 year) 1.0 mils
3rd- Perez- (800K 1 year) 800K
C- Navarro- (500K 1 year) 500K

Lineup: 46.3 mils

Bench: 5.6 mils
C- Martin- (350K)
1b- Saenz- (1.5 mils)
LF- Ledee- (1.5 mils)
RF- Werth- (750K)
LF- Cruz- (1 mils)
SS- Robles- (600K)

Pitching Staff: (40 mils)
#1 Penny- (8 mils)
#2. Lowe- (9 mils)
#3. Perez- (10 mils)
#4. Houlton- (500K)
#5. Billingsley- (315K)
#6. Dessens- (1.5 mils)
#7. Sanchez- (500K)
#8. Gagne- (9 mils)
#9 Wunsch- (500K)
#10. Brazoban- (500K)
#11. Kuo- (315K)

Thats a payroll of 92 mils. Looks doable to me.

185 He did say it was a rumor, and I hadn't heard it at all before, so I took it a little more seriously, since I figured it just came up.

184 There's no way the Dodgers would have claimed Giles. The Padres would never have given him to us. And the Padres giving up their offense would put a lot of people back into denial (or Jon's modified acceptance). Too bad we decided to lose 3 straight 1 run games, no more Giles could really help us take the division

183 Yeah, I agree. And I have to admit that I'm a participant in this "theological" debate. I believe that numbers accurately describe nature, and those who turn their nose up numbers do so because they are smug in their ignorance. Although I have no emotional attachment to the A's and, as a Socal resident, I've cheered on the Angels in their WS winning year, I have come to cheer on the A's to beat the Angels this year. It pains me to see a team going against proven statistical facts win. If the Angels do win, my only consolation will be that there is enough an element of luck in baseball that anything can happen. I will not search for pat answer that the likes of Joe Morgan are wont to do.

Megrew starting for Vero's second game. Probably won't go more than an inning or two. Pitched a perfect first, striking out one

The Giants traded Michael Tucker to the Phillies. Giants acquire Kelvin Pichardo, a 19 yr old pitcher who pitched for the GCL Phils this year

Is Pichardo a prospect?

Pichardo is a prospect, but at 19 and in the GCL, he's just a live arm projected to do something. He had good control in the GCL (3 BBs in 59 IP), but he's still 4-5 years away from the show minimum, assuming he develops into a worthwhile prospect

So I guess the Endy Chavez Era in Philadelphia is over.

And I completely missed the fact that Jason Christiansen had been DFA'd.

Ooh, Jason Phillips is batting cleanup tonight!

Megrew was looking pretty good, 2 perfect innings with a K. He was put out for the 3rd, which makes little sense as he's pitched 5.2 innings this season, and proceeded to give up 3 runs on 3 hits and a BB. He managed only 1 walk and the out was that runner caught stealing. He then gave up groundball 2 singles, one was an infield hit, then a triple. Hoorelbeke allowed that runner to score. The triple was a groundball as well, must have been down the line

Taveras
Biggio
Berkman
Ensberg
Lane
Burke
Everett
Ausmus
Oswalt

vs

A Perez
Robles
Kent
Phillips
Werth
Cruz
Navarro
Valentin
Jackson

Looks like only one of Perez and Choi at a time. Isn't throwing Phillips and Navarro in the same line-up bad from a strategic point of view? No catchers on the bench at the start of the game seems like something you should avoid if at all possible.

I never thought I'd live to see the day when a lineup with Jason Phillips batting cleanup would go unremarked.

I hope I don't walk outside and find out that everyone has died of plague or something.

Apparently Perez needed to lead off (no argument), so Robles needed to bat 2nd. If the 2 spot isn't open, Choi can't play. Apparently Oswalt's arm angle will prevent Choi from playing. Just as you thought Tracy knew what he was doing he puts Phillips at first against a righty, and then he bats cleanup. I wanted Jackson to win...

3B Perez
SS Robles
2B Kent
1B Phillips
CF Werth
RF Cruz
C Navarro
LF Valentin
P Jackson

vs

CF Taveras
2B Biggio
1B Berkman
3B Ensberg
RF Lane
LF Burke
SS Everett
C Ausmus
P Oswalt

greg miller is warming up in the bullpen, jax is ralling.

200 - And of course there's Phillips playing 1st base and batting clean-up.

202 - Yeah, the Tracy complaints were at an all-time low with Choi starting and Izturis injured.

199 Maybe I should have refreshed it after my rant so I didn't post the line up. At least mine has defensive positions

200 We have Edwards back, I guess Tracy didn't mind

Greg Miller is pitching.

Just realized, Dewitt was promoted to Vero, and Eduardo Perez (GCL's 3B) went to Columbus

I would argue that Phillips is the worst hitter in the lineup...oh wait Valentin is playing. Why not bat Jackson cleanup? At least Jackson can go first to third on a single.

By the way Bob, was Jackson's first (and only) hit in the majors an infield single? For some reason, that's what I remember.

Thinking about the Giants trading Tucker... why would anybody give up a minor league prospect for him?

Jason Phillips. Playing first. Batting cleanup.

In the words of Chandler Bing: "Oh-My-God!"

I'm going to dinner.

Battle of the islands tomorrow. Go Ewa Beach!

I guarantee Phillips gets at least two hits, one of them a (solo) homerun. You people don't understand: he cares deeply about saving the rainforest!

213 - If you're wrong, Bokonon, you must give up your tiki lights and plastic pink flamingos.

214- The tiki lights, fine. The flamingos? From my cold, dead hands.

Vinny is on MLB.tv!

Edwin should have stayed with the changeup

Nice K, Edwin.

you go king edwin!

great sequence to ensberg. that change was a beauty!

anyone think the gun is slow? jacksons topping out at 92 on the UPN gun.

Impressive 1st inning by Jackson. I was very impressed with the way he used his changeup (which looks much better this year). Hopefully, he keeps mixing that changeup in.

his slider and change looks sharp today. not quite getting the velocity on his fb yet. lets see whats oswalts velocity is on the gun. hes usually 93-96

Antonio Perez is the greatest hitter of all time. Also? Has a fifteen year streak of not returning a single library book late.

oswalt is hitting 92 on the gun as well, im not sure exactly how fast he throws, but i pretty sure its in the mid-90's.

Nice hit antonio!

I'll take that

212 Go 'Ewa Beach indeed! A couple of stories from the local papers this morning (pre-game).

http://www.linkmeister.com/blog/archives/001529.html

And once again FSNW2 isn't showing me the game.

we are winning!

how did the suns tie the game?

The game is on channel 13

Oswalt usually throws 94-95

Clutch Outmaker will do what he does best...

GET AN RBI DOUBLE!

whats goin on with oswalt?

are you kidding me? what is going on...

Martin with a homerun to tied it I think. I'm watching the suns game but muting it to hear Vinny on mlb.tv.

We're doing our best to deplete Oswalt's value so we can trade Izturis for him.

233. same here

walk off error for the suns

CCCRRRRRRUUUUZZZ!

This is unreal.

225 - Thanks, Link! I'm assuming Curacao pitched their bestg pitcher today, with a P/C over 110, so I'm looking forward to tomorrow.

Dioner!

wow, yay navarro!

Valentin stinks!

Screw it. I say squeeze.

yea right. jacksons probably a better hitter than valentin.

dios mio mang!!!

What's the reason teams never bunt in this situation?

Just not having that kid on the mound tomorrow will be a blessing for the Hawai'i kids. Wow can he throw hard (at 12!!!).

Phillips and Novarro both hitting in the same inning? Goodness!

first pitch swinging by valentin, bad at bat.

Or maybe not.

EDWIN!

jackson just looks like he could be a better hitter than phillips up there.

This inning makes Jose Valentin the biggest moron on the team.

And I'm also surprised Navarro swung on 2-0 as well.

3 walks and 5 hits so far? And 5 runs? What team is this?

Pretty poor at bat as well by AP. I hate when guys swing at the 1st pitch with the bases loaded. Just fundamentally pretty dumb.

BooYahh!

251. he was drafted as a CF wasnt he?

Pretty poor at bat as well by AP. I hate when guys swing at the 1st pitch with the bases loaded. Just fundamentally pretty dumb.

why? you are up to hit to drive the ball, what if that first pitch is the only good pitch you get to hit?

Then Robles gives away a 3-x count and another run by going after a pitch.

Still 5 runs cant complain.

But the smartness in the at bats started to lack after we scored those 1st 3 runs.

256- Yes..I said he should bat cleanup before the game.

254- Perez swung at strikes.

Valentin is horrible. Is Ledee's hammy THAT bad?

yea, jackson is a converted outfielder, he is so atheltic.

I seem to have Astro's announcers on Direct TV. Not terrible homers but still a bummer.

billingsley is pretty athletic too, in HS he was a really good football player but had to quit because he ruptured his spleen.

257. If the 1st pitch is the only "good" pitch you get to hit, then likely you'll draw a walk and continue to score runs and not make outs.

booyahh, 5 runs, it should have been more, valentin had a bad at bat valentin is a dumb @$$, and even tho perez tripled his first time he had a bad at bat the second time around.
should have scored 7 runs if not 8.

258- You can't get a hit or a walk every single time. Or even every other time. That doesn't make every failed AB stupid.

257 - I agree with Nate. I watched Karros for years never take the bat off his shoulders for the first pitch. Pitchers always knew this, and grooved one. Didn't make a difference.

I think the 1st pitch swinging is really dumb because Oswalt was having massive control problems. Tonite's game should be a win. 5-0 lead. EJ cant ask for anything much more than that.

257 i would complain about first ball hitting with the bases loaded also, especially when the pitcher, no matter who it is, has already walked two in. That said, I think first-ball hitters, if that's not their reputation, can do some serious damage.

Was that a slider by Jackson at 85?

He threw it again. He looks good.

Jackson is a monster. He's kind to children, too.

264. Exactly. This Dodger team has a history of giving away at bats after it gets up by 3-4 runs. Should have been more. But I guess asking for 100% concentration/discipline every plate appearance is too much to ask from this rogue crew.

yea, the 85 is jacksons slider.

jackson got up to 94 to strike out jason kendall, i mean chris burke.

also, i dont agree with that approach at the plate. you dont go up to the plate looking to walk. you go up there looking for one pitch to drive, and if you dont get it, then you can walk. theres a difference. and in a bases loaded situation, already up by 4 and wanting to put the nail in the coffin, if you recognize a pitch you want to drive, go for it.

Nice to see EJ rack up some K's and limit his pitch count. Plus with a 5-0 lead, the pressure should be off and he should have a fine nite.

Kent stinks again..

Phillips is back to his old ways too..make him work!

Thankfully, I see my sacrifice to Zeus Almighty has worked. (so far)

Completely off topic, but this is driving me crazy: what's the fanfare music that plays when the Dodgers take the field? (the classical piece)

275. Here goes with the giving away of at bats. If Beane was the GM of this team, he'd be throwing some things around watching our hitters do this time in and time out. Who cares if you are already up 5-0? The goal should be to score as many runs as possible.

8 pitch inning for Oswalt. JP/kent look like crap, and Werth goes hacking.

Oswalt seems to have found it. It would be smart to try to make him throw as many pitches as possible.

uh oh oswalt is back, lets hope the 5 runs are enough, it would have been nice to have capitalized on more runs in the 1st inning.

damnnnn slider is niceee.

now edwins sitting at 94.

I've missed a lot of the game (at 2 in and 2 on, no outs, I neded to do stuff and haven't been in a hurry), but Jackson looks good. The good thing is we're not alternating scores, no 5-4 loss today! Of course, just as I sit down, there's a walk...

Walking Taveras??

Phillips should have caught that...

Good job by Jackson to get out of that jam. He's making a lot of pitches.

got out of the inning. jackson looks good. keep it up edwin!

285- I'd like to agree with you, but I don't. He was holding the runner. With the bounce it took, it was ungetable.

5k's in 3 innings is very good sign for Jackson though.

It's great to see Sandy at the ballpark again. That nonsense from Fox really went beyond the pale.

Its really too bad that Jose Valentin, and Jose Cruz have both been sapped of their power.... Both are ex 30+ HR players.

I'm wondering if both are off the roids, and thats why? Especially Valentin.

288- it's kind of hard to see on MLB.tv maybe it was just blurry because it looked like it was less than a foot away from him.

The Dodgers offense is back!

Jackson is getting the ball up.

Good news from Vinny, Helton hit a slam, 4-1 Rockies

Ugh...balk

That looked like a strike...

290- I only remember a little of the mess. There was a book that some Fox affiliate was putting out calling him gay, right? Did the book ever get published?

that 1-2 pitch was a strike!

Jackson gets out of it despite the umpire's bad call

jackson is racking up the pitches 81 in 4 innings.
at this pace he won't last more than 1 more inning, maybe start the 6th, but if he gets into any trouble he's gone.

Yea, way too many pitches

Kent stinks!

The problem Koufax had was that the NY Post ran an item that Jane Leavey left out a passage from her Koufax bio that he was gay.

Not that there's anything wrong with that....

The NY Post is part of Murdoch's media empire and Koufax refused to have anything to do with him after that.

302 - nice seinfeld reference. i love that episode (it is the politically correct one)

What is Jackson doing?

Jackson isn't the kind of pitcher you have to think about pitch count if he's doing allright; not that fragile.

Is Jackson scared of Taveras? Walked him last time and started 3-0 this time

296 - Don't know if the book was ever published or not. Never heard about it again. Which is fine with me.

Nice inning by Jackson. 12 pitches.

302- Thanks.

everyone see jacksons change? how far has that pitch come along? wow, its pretty darn good now.

0-1 change to biggio had him swigning through it. and the same on the 0-2 pitch for the K.

Jackson's at 92 pitches. How long does he stay out? One more inning? Hopefully he can pitch like this and keep the count down a little more, but I'm hardly complaining. Hopefully King Edwin has arrived for good this time

I guess Bob answered the question :)

Okay, Bokonon, you can keep the pink flamingos. No solo HR so far, so the tiki lights are still up for grabs.

Jackson with 5IP 0Runs 1bb 6K's 92 pitches

Very impressed even if the Astros arent a great offensive club.

The pitches are a little high, but I'm just happy to see him K'ing people.

Nice double by Werth

Phillips got all the way to 3rd on that double, and the throw got to the infield before he got to the bag...

im happy with the progression he has made with his change up. it is now a plus pitch.

Who are these guys?

It would be something if Werth, Cruz, and Valentin all hit to their power potentials...

CCRRRRUUUUZZZZZZ!

"Nice recovery to hold Werth to a double and stop Phillips at third." Surely, Vin, you jest.

Cruz decided Jackson needed as big a lead as is possible. 7 runs off Oswalt, I would have never predicted that

Alright fellas save some for Roger Clemons tomorrow.

5.5 out if the Rox can hold on still leaves a glimmer of hope.

oh wow, oswalt is chased before jackson! great night!

313- Oh ye of little faith. . .

321- he also said that Robles was fast.

Someone said, a long ways back in this thread, that they would be uncomfortable going into next year with a rotation of Penny, Lowe, Perez, Houlton, and Jackson. I am not happy with Lowe or Perez, but I want Houlton and Jackson in the 2006 rotation, for sure.

Jackson needs to be in the majors for good. Enough with Double A, and keep him out of Vegas at all costs. Things are not always going to go as well as they have for him tonight, and there may be some rough sailing in his first full MLB season, but Jackson needs to make his mistakes and his adjustmenst at THIS level. We can't baby the kids forever.

Productive out

Valentin Prediction: Not a productive out

Good performance thus far for Edwin, though the Astros are the 3rd lowest scoring team in the bigs. Should nevertheless be a good confidence booster for the youngster.

If Houlton and Jackson can keep pitching like this, and the other 3 can keep some consistency, 5.5 is nothing. We just need to stop the 2-1 losses, and maybe even beat Clemens. No teams above .500 left on the schedule after tomorrow...

Harville has some hops

328 Nice prediction. Even swung at ball 4

Yup, Valentin is horrible. Why not just release him?

Lets just DFA Valentin. Honestly I hope he is never played when the rosters expand.

for the most part JT put out a decent lineup. if choi was in instead phils, wed be awesome. now i am going to hire somebody to bash in Cesar's knees. who is the guy that tonya harding got?

Edwin Jackson was the winner in one of last year's Dodger Thoughts group outings.

http://tinyurl.com/7ov4o

We were a smaller group then and the invites were hard to come by. You had to know a secret handshake and all that.

329. Good stat. I figured. The Astros of Biggio, Berkman, Ensberg. After that they got nothing. Resembles the 2003 Dodgers almost.

330. Beating Clemens is a tough order. The Rocket has been virtually unbeatable on the road.

334
Jeff Gillooly and Shane Stant were the bad guys in the Kerrigan incident.

Gillooly is now Jeff Stone.

I really shouldn't know stuff like this. I feel like I need a shower.

334. I believe Robles has already accomplished that. He is part of the Mexican Mafia.

335 I was at Jackson's 2-hit, 8 walk outing in SF in 2003. He worked fast enough that traffic on the Bay Bridge, coming from Reno, got me to the game in the 5th. We were so late that we contemplated just going to the SC game in Berkley that day. That was SC's only loss that year, in OT.

Werth took a terrible route to that ball, even though he probably couldn't have caught it, he might have been able to throw him out at 2nd.

339- didn't he strike out Bonds in that game.

Don't walk guys Edwin!

Walking Ensberg with 2nd open isn't a bad idea, but Edwin is reaching the end. Hopefully Tracy gets him out of there before he does something really bad

i would jackson to work out of this inning actualy.

Good thing Cruz doubled. Jackon ran out of gas pretty fast, no reason he should be in there still

Great...
Take him out

Werth takes zig zag routes...he's not a CF

Ouch. That will leave a bad taste in his mouth.

doh. oh well. one bad pitch over the middle of the plate.

345 that was a pretty ugly route.

In the 2003 game against the Giants, Jackson struck out Bonds in the fifth. Bonds walked twice. Jackson struck out Ray Durham in the sixth as his last batter.

As for Werth, he's learning to play center. He may get better. And it may be his position next year, although I suppose it could be Drew's.

After the 22 hit, 15 run game, the 51s are giving up a lot of runs rather than scoring them. They scored one run off the starter, Andy Ashby

108 pitches in 5.1 innings for Jackson. He's gonna have to find some way to make more efficient use of his pitches.

6k's against 1bb was good.

Giving up a 3 run bomb to some scrub named Chris Burke is a Grabowki Principle.

Earlier in the thread there was a discussion about potential 2006 lineups. Here is my estimate of our 2006 players and salary:

#1: Bradley, Milton (CF $4.00 million)
#2: Brazoban, Yhency (RP $0.35 million)
#3: Broxton, Jonathan (RP $0.32 million)
#4: Choi, Hee-Seop (1B $1.25 million)
#5: Dessens, Elmer (RP $1.30 million)
#6: Drew, J.D. (RF $11.00 million)
#7: Gagne, Eric (RP $10.00 million)
#8: Houlton, Dennis (SP $0.33 million)
#9: Izturis, Cesar (SS $3.10 million)
#10: Kent, Jeff (2B $9.00 million)
#11: Ledee, Ricky (OF $1.50 million)
#12: Lowe, Derek (SP $9.00 million)
#13: Navarro, Dioner (C $0.32 million)
#14: Penny, Brad (SP $5.50 million)
#15: Perez, Antonio (2B/3B $0.34 million)
#16: Perez, Odalis (SP $8.00 million)
#17: Phillips, Jason (C $1.15 million)
#18: Robles, Oscar (2B/SS $0.34 million)
#19: Sanchez, Duaner (RP $0.40 million)
#20: Schmoll, Steve (RP $0.34 million)
#21: Werth, Jayson (OF $0.40 million)
#22: X: Left Fielder (LF $0.00 million)
#23: X: Starting Pitcher (SP $0.00 million)
#24: X: Third Baseman (3B $0.00 million)

The salary is $68.29 million + $7.55 million for benefits (from Hardball Dollars), for a grand total of $75.84 million dollars.

The total this season will be around $97 million, so estimating a similar total next season leaves $21 million available.

The in-house options are as follows:

LF: Jayson Werth with Jason Repko taking over as the 5th outfielder.
SP: Edwin Jackson with a deep AAA pitching staff to fill holes due to injuries.
3B: Willy Aybar, Antonio Perez, or Oscar Robles.

I expect DePodesta to go hard after Hideki Matsui or Brian Giles to play LF. That would tie up about $9 - $10 million, leaving $11 - $12 million available.

I'm currently leaning towards packaging Hee Seop Choi and others up for Adam Dunn. I'm hoping that the price will be more reasonable in the offseason. Perhaps Hee Seop Choi, Justin Orenduff, and Jose Diaz? Dunn would utilize $8 - $10 million of the remaining budget through arbitration.

Then, next year my ideal lineup would be as follows, along with off-the-cuff 2006 projections:

Antonio Perez (3B) .275/.345/.385 (.730 OPS)
Milton Bradley (CF) .285/.345/.485 (.830 OPS)
J.D. Drew (RF) .285/.410/.515 (.925 OPS)
Jeff Kent (2B) .280/.365/.490 (.855 OPS)
Brian Giles (LF) .285/.400/.480 (.880 OPS)
Adam Dunn (1B) .245/.375/.550 (.925 OPS)
Dioner Navarro (C) .275/.365/.355 (.720 OPS)
Cesar Izturis (SS) .280/.320/.360 (.680 OPS)

Bench:
OF: Jayson Werth
OF: Ricky Ledee
IF: Oscar Robles
IF: Willy Aybar
1B: ???
C: Jason Phillips

I'm pretty confident this lineup would be able to handle Izturis' sub-.700 OPS. It also has great depth to cover for injuries.

Of course, that still leaves us with a pitching rotation of:

Brad Penny
Odalis Perez
Derek Lowe
DJ Houlton
Edwin Jackson

One suggestion would be to try to convert Sanchez back into a starter now that he's harnessing a quality offspeed pitch. Assuming Gagne is healthy, the bullpen should be fine with or without Sanchez.

chris burke is the astros top positonal prospect.

351

scrub=Astros top prostect having a mediocre rookie season

should have taken jackson out as soon as he got in trouble in the 6th, just like i said earlier.

whoa a dessens spotting, i guess i did figure out tracy, when the dodgers recalled osoria i thought to myself, could it be because they are planning to use dessens in late innings instead of when a starter gets pulled before or during the 5th inning.
osoria is probably our new long reliever.

Are we going to have an 'Ewa Beach-Curacao chat tomorrow?

I keep forgetting what a good second baseman Kent is!

350. Andy Ashby is still pitching? You can tell that these old veteran scrubs that bounce around AAA are truely doing it for the love of the game.

If I was Ashby, I'd be enjoying my family and playing golf every morning.

Rather than riding around on the AAA team bus hoping for another shot at the Bigs.

I do not envy rookie reliever. Poor Burns...

353. They must have a weak system. Burke's got a .654 OPS in 254 at bats this season. He'd only hit 4 home runs.

Those arent good numbers for an outfield prospect.

360 He's a 2nd base prospect. Biggio won't give him 2nd, so they put him in left. They do have a very weak system though

356 - Game time for the little fellers is 12:30 PDT, so it would appear so.

Of course, the first couple of innings in tomorrows Dodger game will be broadcast with 1955 technology, so I'll be watching that too.

Does anyone think Bradley will be around next year--I'm pessimistic but don't fell everything on thhe east coast.

If Jackson doesn't win, I'd be very embarassed for the bullpen. Can I assume Sanchez doesn't pitch?

Jeff Kent doing his best Shawn Green impersonation.

If that can get him going, then hopefully good things will come.

Padres have 2nd and 3rd with one out in the 8th.

Rockies are changing pitchers. From somebody to somebody else. I think it's Scott Dohmann. But he could be coming out.....

Burke has looked horrible this year.

Kent with a Shawn Green home run.

352- from all indications, it looks like Bradley (unfortunately) won't be back. I'd rather get rid of Kent.

364. True. Hopefully Dessens can go another inning, then pitch Osoria in the 8th/9th.

365- lol

#327: I wouldn't say the Dodgers have babied Edwin Jackson, since he's been crushed for the vast majority of the last two seasons. I don't understand why a good pitching prospect shouldn't be able to make adjustments at Las Vegas. Jackson hasn't shown that he's mastered that level, so why not give him another chance. It's great that Jackson is getting a major league shot, but I believe the best thing for the organization would be for Jackson to start next season in AAA along with the rest of his pitching class (Billingsley, Broxton, Orenduff, etc.).

Andy Ashby might still have something. In his first rehab at Portland he allowed 2 hits and a run and mnaged 3 Ks in 3 IP. Brian Sweeney has since given up 7 runs on 3 homers to the same lineup, including a homer by pitcher Alfredo Gonzalez.

#363: I hope so, but it will likely take a few meetings between Bradley and the PR firm and a well-timed reconciliation speech at season's end.

RBI single for Klesko makes it 4-2 Rockies.

WHy on earth do you double switch Jose Cruz out of the game?

If its for defense, the guy won a GG like 2 years ago. He cant be worse than Repko or Edwards out there?

And Valentin and AP at 3rd are both equally bad.

Looks like Tracy watched too much LLWS and thought he had to get all of his players in the game, or else we'd have to forfeit.

Jackson looks like a horse to me, I find it hard to doubt he'll be carrying some organization by the time he's 25 or 26.
Then again--arms are so fickle-especially for the Dodgers.

Will Osoria pitch in this game?

As for Kent's Green impression, I will say that the HR did stretch the lead from 4-5 runs. Plus, he's on my fantasy team.

Did Taveras really need to jump? I thought he was going to catch it in the first place.

374 Yeah, I thought that was a weird move too.

376-- i doubt it, i think since dessens is now pitching late innings, tracy has designated osoria as the long reliever.
tracy allways has to have a long reliever that never pitches other than long relief.
remember never seeing dessens.
long relief = when a starter is pulled during the 5th inning or befre.

Dohmann gets Loretta to pop out and Ks Nady and it's 4-2 Rockies going to the 9th.

Who are these men who have taken over the Rockies pitchers bodies?

Dohman throws some sliders and Nady swings terribly at 3 of them, inning over. Fuentes is a pretty good bet for a 2 run of late, especially with the bottom of a line up

Huge moment in the Padre game, Dohmann struck out X Nady (made him look pretty bad) with men on 1st and 3rd to end the inning, 1 run in.

Sorry to those in acceptance, this was for those in denial.

Just wanted to remind everybody that Valentin stinks

Is this guy off the roids?

A few days ago, some people here wanted to move AAA to Portland. I have no idea what the park usually plays as, but the 51s, an absolutely terrible hitting team, has scored 9 runs and Portland has scored 11. Vegas scored 15 yesterday. Is this an anomaly?

9:19 p.m. Valentin draws his second allegation of steroid use on the night.

I mean, when Bradley left left Cleveland it looked like quite a loss for them. But I was surprised by the absolute silence except for perhaps a perceptable hiss representing a huge sigh of relief. Now Gutierras is showing sign of life. At least I don't think the salary competition for MB will be much. Jeez, you could get the Darwin award for making such open for anything remarks around the press.

i applaud whoever it was making the decision to use dessens in late innings instead of long relief, i doubt it was tracy, it was probably depodesta.
anyways i'm glad to see dessens in late innings, he has been our best reliever so far this season, and surprisingly sanchez has been our 2nd best.
that changeup that sanchez has developed/added might just make him a good reliever after all.

386- when was the first? Actually, I don't really think he was on roids, but he doesn't hit anything hard anymore.

It's amazing that the Rockies are on a hot streak despite starting Danny Ardoin at catcher. He's really useless at bat.

370

Fearing, I don't see the reason "why" in the idea to send any of the young pitchers to Las Vegas. Because of the extremes of the park,weather, league compared to dodger stadium you are not going to get a true read on their abilities. Unless you want to run them through some type of pitchers boot camp before they come up???? Vegas as a minor league stop is a bad idea unless they can come up with a retractable roof.

388 - What, 2 1/3 innings isn't long relief?

391- not only the pitchers, but also the hitters. We don't want them turning into Coors Field hitters

Cortes on for the save in San Diego.

David Cortes in to save the Rockies game. Has allowed 2 runs in 16 IP since the break

394 - what is the situation with Fuentes? Not a true closer?

I'm not sure if anyone has commented on it yet but the most telling comment made by Depo was when he said he wanted players with the "self esteem" of champions. I think that is a clear indication that bradley is gone. Bradley clearly lacks self esteem and maturity. I think he is going to be a hell of a ball player if he ever gets out of his own way.

392-- it just worked out to be 2 1/3 innings because of when he came into the game, the #1 hitter was the first up when he came into the game.

i guess i don't know my terms, dessens was used ONLY when the starters were pulled during the 5th inning or before and never in late innings, to me thats what a long reliever is.

389- 291

Good at bat by Choi

Hurdle doesn't want to use Fuentes unless he has to. A rare winning streak has caused him to use a lot recently.

He's warming up, although not very hard.

Cortes got the first two batters.

393

well maybe we can hype the hitters and use them as trade bait.

C'mon Robles; my tiki torches need another Phillips AB!

Mark Sweeney swings and misses, Rockies win for the fourth straight day

Only send a pitcher to Vegas if he needs to be humiliated.

David Cortes throws gas!

Four straight road wins for the Rox!

Rox 4, Pads 2

When talking about Jose Vizcaino, Vin noted that he has had a "tremendous career". That had me cracking up. Robles shows off his speed there.

Game over in SD. Rockies win.

406 I envy being able to say that about the Dodgers.

Why not Osoria now?

Guess no Osoria tonite. A Steve Schmoll sighting.

403 - Aw, that's okay, Bokonon...Idon't have a swimming pool to fully utilize them anyway.

With Choi playing first that's an out. That should not be a hit.

Cute call, but likely wrong.

The Padres decided to at least give us a chance not to fall to 6.5 back tomorrow. Despite the off day, Pedro Astacio will go instead of Peavy against Jamey Wright. I don't really like our odds in Clemens vs Weaver unless we score some runs. I predicta game much more similar to Friday

Those 3 1-run losses are killing us right now. 5.5 back could very well be 3.5 back with better luck.

Nice job by Schmoll. Kent is a jerk. He's chewing out Robles for taking it himself.

Kent giving a lecture to Robles at the end of the game there.

He can't do that tonight! It's Viva Los Dodgers Night!

416 Do the math right, we'd be 2.5 back =P

But I agree, that really killed us. Especially 2 against the Rockies at home, at least they're hot against the Padres as well

This division is incredibly stagnant. I don't remember when the last time the order in the standings changed besides the percentage point differentials recently.

On the other hand, shortstops and second basemen are supposed to be able to communicate well and with Robles likely to be playing a lot of short the rest of the year, they better figure out what's what.

Yes, Kent was "teaching".

Damn it-I like Jason Phillips--but the thought of a team playing him at first base and cleanup is hilarious, mainly for what it implies.

415. Think positive. Tomorrow we go back to 4.5 out and play a demoralized Cubs team coming up. Hope springs eternal

I honestly think we'll end the year about 4-5 games out. If we make a push, so will the Padres.

The only way I see us making a legit move is if we win 6-8 games in a row. But that seems doubtful

Looks like we miss Maddux and Zambrano.

We do not have a team above .500 on our schedule now. Whether that means wins is hard to say. Our bullpen and rotation seems to be coming together, just need some hitters to get hot, and we're good to go. Who predicted our late season Mota-Gagne punch would be Dessens-Sanchez?

Jerome Williams, Prior and Rusch, I think.

426 That's good, but that means we get Prior. At least I won't have to feel bad about beating Maddux, I really want him to win 5 more (today's 1-2 loss really must hurt)

The Mariners bunted after Beltre got an infield single, down by 1 run at home. No wonder why the Mariners stink.

430 You trust Greg Dobbs' .523 OPS? I'd have him bunt too

In honor of Jason Phillips's big night and America's entrants to the Little League World series (and, sneakily, Brad Penny's favorite bat boy):

Tiki torches at twilight,
Hula girls at the bar,
All the guys from the office,
Are throwing up their cars.

Get to cooking a roast pig,
Like it's done in the book,
Say hello to your sweetie,
With a casual look.

Swinging deals and eating meals,
Is all within the norm,
Put away the axes,
And pay those taxes.
Let's all get normal at the lu'au.

Tracy's spoken out, following McCourt and DePo

"The number of one-run games since 2001, and the won-lost record in those games is pretty impressive," Tracy said. "Mr. [Eric] Gagne obviously has a little something to do with that, too. Because I feel like that is, personally, somewhat of a testament to a manager, because that's where your resolve gets tested. Four-run game, five-run game, what kind of resolve gets tested there?"

"It's very flattering, if you get right down to that," Tracy said. "If young players weren't developing, [and] the performance on the field was completely lackluster, [if] you didn't see passion, you didn't see energy, then that falls into my boat. And that's something that I would expect to be completely held accountable for, 100 percent.

"But as I was alluding to in here yesterday, I think last night's game is another indication of it. We have played with whatever lineup, with whatever group of names from one day to the next, [and] over the course of the five years I've been here, I get everything they've got, every single day -- with the exception of probably a couple, and what ballclub doesn't go through that?"

"I laud my players, and I told them that, way back, playing in Philadelphia," Tracy said. "The effort that they have given from day to day is noteworthy because, believe me ... if you go back and you research some of those lineups that we had out on the field ... I think it'll tell you an awful lot about the character that these players have displayed between the lines, in going out there and giving you every single thing they've got."

Not relly the same thing, but at least he decided to say something

This was in the Dodgers.com story on the pregame Viva Los Dodgers concert:

While far from a fluent speaker like Villaraigosa, McCourt did his best, briefly remarking in Spanish, "Welcome, friends. My house is your house."

Someone should tell the reporter that Antonio Villaraigosa isn't fluent in Spanish either.

Also from the Times...

Now it can be told. Dino's roamed the earth alongside man!

http://tinyurl.com/b6pmq

"Is he a candidate? I'd have to say that would be yes," Tracy said. "But likely? I wouldn't say that at all."

-talking about cesar and the DL

LOL

I asked this last night and didn't get much of a response, and I doubt I will tonight (I really need to ask this at a more popular time)

Anyone interested in Bellhorn? He was pretty good lst year and is better than Edwards and Valentin in my opinion. Walks a lot (49 in 293 ABs), has some nice doubles power(20, plus 7 homers), and makes Dunn look like Robles with his Ks (an awful 109). Even if he hit like Izzy average wise, at least he takes pitches (4.23 per PA) and walks, plus he's cheap (FA on Tuesday). I like him as backup 3B over Valentin at the very least.

Nice to see somebody at the Times has no trouble calling out idiocy. From the article Jim linked to: "Now he is the star of a renovated attraction that disputes the fact that dinosaurs died off millions of years before humans first walked the planet.

Going full circle on the original topic of this post, Keisser refers to "the three wise men" and then the headline uses "holy trinity" and that's just way off too.

Jon, regarding Tracy Tim Brown's story in Sunday's times seems to write a lite obit on Tracy. I didn't realize that Tracy has an option to leave next year and wonder if he might go.

I knew somebody would say it:

In Sunday's Times:

Character and team chemistry have been strong themes recently under Dodger owner Frank McCourt, especially in light of several embarrassing incidents involving players. He pointed to the '55 team as embodying the qualities he wants in his current Dodgers.

"It's important to celebrate not just winning, but a type of winning we can respect," McCourt said. "This is a team we can all relate to. They had that thing called character. This is a team worthy of this weekend's celebration."

Yeah, they were all perfect. They all loved each other.

Hah!

437- The temptation is to wonder how much of the Red Sox's garbage we really need to pick up in one year. Edwards isn't very good, but he's free. And Valentin gets all his money DFA'd or not. I can see not wanting to throw more good money after bad. Anyway, probably better not to give Tracy a new reason to not start Perez.

I would think Bellhorn would rather play for a contender this year.

If that doesn't work out, he's got next spring.

"""""""if you go back and you research some of those lineups that we had out on the field ... I think it'll tell you an awful lot about the character that these players have displayed between the lines, in going out there and giving you every single thing they've got.""""""""""

is he admitting that he doesn't know how to put a lineup together?
i can never figure out what the hell he's saying.
anyways he's a goofball, just more stupid babble from the worst manager i've ever seen.
he answers his own questions with more questions, this guy is an embarrasement to the dodger organization, who hired him in the first place, dan evans.

i'll be the first to write a big thank you to whomever fires his @$$.

Jim Tracy was hired by Kevin Malone and Bob Daly.