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The Rightly Rated Farm System Begins to Deliver
2005-09-26 14:23
* * * It's like being called a bad parent when you weren't even pregnant yet. One of the phonier damnations of the Dodger farm system accuses the team of failing to produce a bonafide star from the minor leagues, despite the Dodger system being highly rated for years. The flaw in the argument is that until recently, these so-called high rankings for the Dodger farm system did not exist. Both Baseball Weekly and Baseball America had low rankings for the Dodger system as this decade began. As recently as 2002, the Dodgers were considered incompetent at the draft, with their No. 1 pick, two-way player James Loney, an apparent anachronism - a tools player from high school drafted ahead of proven, specialized college talent. That the dim Dodgers were putting Loney at first base instead of on the mound befuddled analysts even further. The Dodger farm system did not begin to regain favor in the public eye until later that summer when Loney, who was only 18, surprised everyone by justifying the Dodgers' faith in him with a spectacular season at the plate in Rookie ball. Then in 2003, the Dodgers delivered what perhaps became their highest-rated draft in many years, highlighted by pitchers Chad Billingsley and Chuck Tiffany. Still, skepticism remained over the Dodgers' reliance on high school talent, so that even just two years ago, not everyone was sold on the team's minor league roster. It really wasn't until 2004, when Joel Guzman came to life, that perception of the Dodger farm system began to soar. Again, this makes sense, because the infusion of talent in the farm system is both recent and young. Willy Aybar signed a huge bonus in 2000, but was only 17 at the time. Guzman was signed from the Dominican Republic in 2001 - but he was only 16 at the time. So those who have taken the failure for the Dodger farm system to produce a star in 2005 as a sign that it has been overrated have lost perspective on time. The struggles of most of the 2005 rookies accurately reflect the state of the Dodger minor league talent prior to 2002. With the possible exception of Chin-Feng Chen, none of the rookie hitters for the major league Dodgers this season ever really impressed scouts after they were drafted. Other than Jonathan Broxton (still only 21), Hong-Chih Kuo (in between injuries) and the strange case of Edwin Jackson, the same holds true for the 2005 rookie pitchers. Jason Repko, a 1999 first-round draft choice, epitomized the until-recently feeling about the Dodger minor leaguers. He was considered, like most Dodger draft choices, a flop. The fact that he has barely scratched out a major-league OPS above .600 in 2005 is no disappointment - it's as much or more than anyone thought he would do until 2004. With Aybar and Dioner Navarro (a minor leaguer acquired by trade from the Yankees via Arizona last offseason) emerging in the past two months, the first set of better-regarded position players in years have taken superb first steps. At the same time, Aybar and Navarro are not even the hottest prospects in the Dodger system at their positions. If the 22-year-old Aybar and the 21-year-old Navarro, who have combined for an on-base percentage of nearly .400 in about 250 plate appearances, can continue to develop the talent they have shown, imagine what the future might hold for the Andy LaRoches and Russ Martins, for Guzman, and so on. The fact that these futures might not arrive until 2007 is really, truly beside the point. It might turn out that Aybar and Navarro will have sophomore slumps and put their careers in perception limbo like Jackson. It might turn out that we never know who's going to be great until they get to Los Angeles. So let me just leave things where I began. The Dodger farm system has not promised more than it has delivered. It has not been highly rated for years. The rise of the farm system, both in perception and reality, is a recent development, and the prospects are arriving right on time.
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But it wasn't that long ago when the Dodgers had a long run of ROYs: Karros, Piazza, Mondesi, Nomo, and Hollandsworth.
http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2005/09/26/sports/s145131D43.DTL
Vegas will have Gameday next year as well, or at least should. They hoped to get Gameday to AAA teams, but I haven't heard if it's official
We also had a milder run of guys who became successful for other teams, like Ted Lilly, Henry Rodriguez, John Wetteland, and Paul Konerko.
"We had a great group of guys at the start and at the finish," Werth said. "There's definitely a difference in atmosphere from last year to this. I don't really think we have a bad clubhouse, I just think some things have happened over the course of the season injuries, close losses, things like that."
I guess that's good news, as is...
Kent, who signed a two-year contract last winter, has always been known as a loner, but Werth defended him, saying the public perception concerning the All-Star second baseman "is not close," and that he loved having Kent as a teammate.
Has Werth become the new PR guy?
And to take Tracy out of context
"I think that's something you talk about when the season's over," he said. "That's the way I've done it for four years. I'm not changing."
Putting the quote back into context, is this just Tracy's ambiguous style, or is there a hidden message? Maybe it's the optimism over analyzing the quote, but there seems to be some hostility in the quote
It's not a good argument to raise.
Green's slump preceded Tracy moving him around. In fact, the world was almost as impatient for Tracy to move Green out of the cleanup spot as they were for Tracy to move Izturis out of the leadoff spot. More impatient about Green, if you consider that Izturis batted leadoff in 2004.
Tracy gave Green as much rope as any manager would dare give someone who was producing as poorly as Green in the cleanup spot.
Green's departure came for one reason - he was not playing like a $16 million player. It wasn't Tracy's fault.
It is true that Tracy gave Izturis more patience in his batting slot.
September 26, 1946
The Dodgers might have won the battle this day at Ebbets Field, defeating the Philadelphia Phillies 8-2, but they also might have lost the war as star left fielder Pete Reiser broke his left leg. The win moved the Dodgers to within one half game of the first place Cardinals at 95-57.
Reiser's injury happened in the first inning. Second baseman Eddie Stanky led off with a walk. Third baseman Augie Galan flied out and Reiser forced Stanky at second. Reiser, who led the NL in 1946 in stolen bases, took a big lead and Philadelphia pitcher Charley Schanz threw back to first. Reiser slid back into first feet first and jammed his leg against the bag and snapped his left fibula.
Reiser was carried off the field and taken to the hospital. Dick Whitman ran for Reiser and took second on a passed ball by Philadelphia catcher Rollie Hemsley. Right fielder Dixie Walker singled home Whitman with the first run of the game.
The Dodgers scored four times in the fourth. First baseman Eddie Stevens led off with a double. Center fielder Carl Furillo tried to sacrifice, but beat the bunt out for a hit. Shortstop Pee Wee Reese beat out an infield single to short to score Stevens. Catcher Bruce Edwards laid down a bunt and he beat it out also. Pitcher Kirby Higbe popped out. Stanky then bounced a ball into right field to score Furillo. Oscar Judd came into relieve for Philadelphia and walked Galan to force in a run. Joe Medwick, a midseason pickup in his second tour of duty in Brooklyn, drove in the final run with a groundout.
In the sixth inning, Galan singled and Medwick followed with his second home run of the season. The Dodgers added their final run in the seventh on a squeeze bunt from Edwards to score Furillo.
Meanwhile, Higbe went the distance to pick up his 17th win of the season. He gave up seven hits and struck out six.
The Dodgers were off on September 27, but they moved into a tie for first when the Cardinals lost at home to the Cubs, 7-2. On September 28, both teams won with the Dodgers beating the Braves and the Cardinals beating the Cubs. But on the last day of the regular season, both teams lost. Mort Cooper of the Braves shut out the Dodgers 4-0 while the Cubs, behind Johnny Schmitz, beat the Cardinals 8-3.
So for the first time since its founding in 1876, the National League season ended in a tie and a best of three playoff was scheduled. The Dodgers won the coin flip and opted to start the playoff in St. Louis and play the last two games, if necessary, in Brooklyn.
Just over 26,000 came to Sportsman's Park to see the first playoff game. Cardinal lefty Howie Pollet, battling an injury to his side, went the distance as St. Louis won 4-2. Joe Garagiola drove in the insurance run for the Cardinals in the seventh. Ralph Branca took the loss.
After a day off, the teams returned to Brooklyn. Joe Hatten got the call to save the Dodgers season, but the Cardinals battered him and a succession of five relievers for eight runs, three of them in the ninth. Murray Dickson got the win and Harry Brecheen came in to relieve in the ninth and struck out two with the bases loaded to send the Cardinals to the World Series, where they would defeat the Boston Red Sox in seven games.
Reiser's loss was something the Dodgers were used to as other injuries had limited him to just 122 games in 1946. Stanky had the highest OBP on the team at .436. He walked 137 times although he hit no home runs. Reiser led the team with 11 homers. The team hit just 55 for the season. Walker led the team in batting at .319 and drove in 116 runs with just nine home runs. The Dodgers did score 701 runs, second most in the league.
The pitching staff was headed up by Higbe who was 17-8 with a 3.03 ERA. Hatten was 14-11 with 2.84 ERA. The staff ERA was 3.05, which was also second best in the NL.
In a sense though, the Dodgers lost the battle in 1946 to the Cardinals (who had won four of the last five NL pennants), but they were going to win the war. Jackie Robinson had a tremendous year playing in the minor leagues in Montreal. Branch Rickey was going to make some changes. And from 1947 through 1966, the Dodgers would win ten pennants and four World Series, while the Cardinals would win just once.
Thanks to the New York Times, Baseball-Reference, and Retrosheet.
Even if Green was "playing like a $16 million player," there's a good chance he would have been traded.
But the $6 million savings from Green was instrumental in signing Lowe, right? At least, that's what we were told.
Green was traded because in DePo's mind, he was overvalued.
Probably a similar number in all honesty.
Another manager might have played Choi and Perez a little more, had less patience for Izturis in the leadoff spot, punted on Phillips earlier, and stuck with Robles less. But in my opinion those are all relatively minor differences. A game here or there.
How many wins did Tracy squeeze out of last year's team that another manager might not have?
I'm not pro or anti Jim Tracy at this point. I think after last year he deserves a shot with a healthy roster next year before we reach any conclusions. That being said I wouldn't be heart broken if he decided to go elsewhere.
I read your column a few weeks back about not calling for Tracy to get the axe unless you are prepared to name a replacement that would do better. If we stay on that train of thought who is there? I can't think of anyone this side of Bobby Cox and Tony La Russa who might have got a few more wins out of this club. And I think that even with those two it's still at sub-.500 team.
On the other hand, Tracy should have dropped Izturis a lot earlier this. Cesar Izturis 2005 was clearly a #7/#8 hitter, not a leadoff guy.
With Drew and Lowe, plus $10 million to trade Green: $29 million.
2000 - .289
2001 - .323
2002 - .321
2003 - .285
2004 - .280
2005 - .286
Green has not been significantly better this year than he was last year - more significantly, he has remained far from his 2001-2002 level.
Green is better than the healthy Dodger outfielders but worse than the injured Dodger outfielders (both Drew and Bradley).
First base? Choi is at .260, Saenz is at .285. Green is a little better than the combo. Not much, though.
I bring up Lowe because in most of the discussions I've had about the Green trade, the Lowe signing has been treated as a byproduct of the Green trade, and folks have argued that the Green trade made the Lowe signing possible. They've essentially argued that, in exchange for Green, the Dodgers got not only the 4 minor leaguers from AZ, but were also thus able to sign Lowe.
I never really bought that argument because I didn't see why the Dodgers couldn't have signed Lowed anyway, even without the $6 million savings from the Green trade.
They could have, but then probably couldn't have signed Drew.
I see, e.g., that Choi was much better batting 2nd, but to me that's random variation that would not survive bigger sample sizes.
I think one of the drawbacks of baseball's laconic pace is that we have too much time to think about climbing inside players' heads, and assessing motivation, AND trying to explain everything causally. One of the great advances of sabermetrics is that we have much better causal theories than before. But another, perhaps even greater, advance is to show just how much luck (random variation) there is in baseball, and that while the game has become more and more explainable (and thus predictable) in the long run, it's still utterly unpredictable game to game and pitch to pitch.
21 - "the moves (both up and down) definitely seemed to mess with Green's head and make the situation worse--and yet the local media peanut gallery seems to have forgotten this. "
No, I completely disagree with this. Green only seemed to improve once he dropped down below Beltre. If you check his splits from 2004, the numbers back it up.
Batting fourth: .790 OPS
Batting fifth: .863 OPS
Batting sixth: .826 OPS
20 - "I read your column a few weeks back about not calling for Tracy to get the axe unless you are prepared to name a replacement that would do better. "
That's not what I said. What I said was that if you nominate a Tracy replacement, have a good reason for it. Don't pick a name just because it sounds nice.
As it was, if Drew and Bradley had not been hurt (predictably or not), DePo would have been completely vindicated in trading Green. As it is, I think DePo might still be vindicated.
I agree that Depo thought Green was overvalued, but I still think he might have been traded even if that wasn't the case. I'm not convinced Depo was comfortable with a $16 million salary, even had the player been playing well enough to earn it (which Green clearly wasn't). I don't think Depo wants to build a team around one or two very highly paid players; I think he'd rather spread the talent (and money) around more evenly.
I think it's just as easy to assume that DePo wants the good $316,000 players so that he can spend big money on a superstar if he wants to. That way, even with a couple of megamillionaires on the team, the team wouldn't be completely dependent on them.
He probably wouldn't have resigned him at that price, though. Imagine what we could have gotten in trade for Green if he had been any good.
Well, it should be interesting to see what happens this offseason. I put the probability of maintaining payroll at $100 million (and signing "megamillionaires") at less than 0.5, but ya never know. I'm looking forward to seeing what Depo has in store, particularly since I'm not attached to any of the players on the current squad (with the exception of HSC).
Blue Jays-Red Sox
POSTPONED
>>
The Indians might have the AL manager of the year in 37-year-old Eric Wedge, who finished his playing career a few years ago as a backup catcher for the Phillies' triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre club. The Indians have another rising young managerial star in their system in Torey Lovullo. He, too, spent time in the Phillies system, playing at Scranton in 1999 and finishing the season in the majors. Lovullo managed Akron to the Eastern League title last week and could move up to triple-A Buffalo next year...
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Just another name to throw out there. Now quick! Somebody ask Timmerman who has the longest hitting streak of the century going into tonight. Gotta make sure he is now a safe distance away from Rex Hudler's stash...
well of course, considering there are not any superstar players available in FA this offseason
It's raining in New York and Philly as well.
That has a lot to do with it, although (in theory) he could trade for megamillionaires as well.
If the Dodgers get healthy next season (Drew), play better players (Choi, no Phillips) and see continued growth from youngsters like Navarro and Aybar, I think they'll be contenders.
It'd be nice to pick up more starting pitching, but I don't want Burnett, Washburn, Millwood, or Weaver, and they're the best on the market. Maybe some creative trading would work out, but I'd stay away from most of the free-agent market this offseason.
I also don't necessarily think that's a bad thing, for the reasons you stated.
And does anyone know why McKeon is benching Miguel Cabrera? Sounds like the Marlins are counting themselves out of it already.
Maybe people just don't like Luis Castillo.
48 - That's an interesting question. If we look at Jon's recent projection of needed HR totals for various lineup slots, could a healthy Dodger team as currently constituted be reasonably expected to hit those? My gut says no, but my gut lacks lateral thinking skills. Working on a strictly back of the envelope basis:
1 - 5 HR Perez
2 - 15 HR Choi (I know, I know)
3 - 30 HR Drew (fingers & toes crossed)
4 - 30 HR Bradley
5 - 25 HR Kent
6 - 20 HR Cruz (?)/Werth
7 - 15 HR Navarro/Phillips (? gack)
8 - 5 HR Robles
PH - 5 HR Ledee (?), Repko, etc.
Out of those, #3-4-5 seems like the biggest gambles, which is not reassuring. Then again, it seems reasonable to expect them to come close, and also to get more than 5 HR from the #1 and #8 slots.
Jeff Kent
Jose Cruz
Hee-Seop Choi
J.D. Drew
Olmedo Saenz
Padres who have hit more home runs than Brandon Inge:
Ryan Klesko
Joe Randa
Brian Giles
Khalil Greene
One of them says something like "I just want to say to all the Oakland fans, Moneyball fails. In fact it fails AGAIN, just like it's failed every season.", at which point the other guy says, "Well, umm, you can't say that its Moneyball that's failing, they do what they do with half the payroll of the Angels."
I'm betting that the logical person in that conversation was Mason and the illogical one was Ireland.
Dodger 3b's this year out OPS'd the Cardinals .723 to .713.
I noticed yesterday that the White Sox are last in the majors in LOB. I think the total was 972, which is a very small number and may break the franchise low for a full season which was a little over 1000.
I've also noticed that the White Sox are 26th in the majors in OBP and 5th in homers.
The record low in the majors for a full season is by the 1957 A's who were last in the AL in OBP and first in home runs.
Note to self: buy a bigger enevelope...
dodgers had 2 prospects in the top 20 list of the SAL.
#1- elbert
#7- dewitt
shame that blake johnson and denker did not make it. travesty i tell you! travesty.
i am surprised that elbert is the number 1 overall prospect in the sally league. i guess we have to keep a rotation spot open for him in 2009 or so.
I believe the only Olney champ ever officially crowned was Adam Everett.
Who actually does stuff like hit home runs now.
About 60 comments too late, but...
I think Tracy "single-handedly" cost this team about 10 games. That still leaves the club with a poor record, but one that is at least excusable [perhaps playoff bound too, incidentally] considering the injuries.
The point that bears consideration is that Tracy killed morale to such a degree that we're left wondering how many games he really cost the team. The lost rubber match against the Cards in L.A., for example, no doubt had a depressing effect on the team. A win would have had them 3 back of the Pads on Aug 1st with the satisfaction of having won a series against a formidable foe who has owned them of late. Instead they never saw better than 4 back.
After games like this players must know the script is already written. I don't mean to digress with the obvious here [Tracy is bad blah blah blah], I'm just stating/probing how much of an intangible, non-empirical impact managerial ineptitude can have.
But Fred Claire bragged about this accomplishment til the cows came home, hoping no one would notice the team had stopped winning, needed to import expensive problems like Strawberry, and was generally fraying and losing it.
Brandon goes deep again and it's 3-3 in Detroit.
I think suggesting he's cost us 10 games--i.e. the division championship--is a huge huge stretch. Also, it's not a fair analysis to put all the focus on the debit side of the ledger. Maybe JT has cost us 5 games thru making obviously (not in retrospect) bad decisions. But that's balanced out by, say 2 or 3 games where his managing contributed to a win.
Then again, all the injuries pretty much guarantee a DePo/Tracy tandem in 2006. Yuck.
And credit for that goes to...Hee Seop Choi, for ending Rolen's season early.
Maybe you SHOULD trade him to Tampa Bay; if Delmon Young is going to be their Darryl Strawberry, maybe Hee can be Kevin Mitchell.
1. Edwin goes at least 5 innings and no more than 3 earned runs
2. Aybar starts at 3B and is on base at least once
3. Navarro has a solid game behind the plate and collects at least one hit
4. Kuo pitches a scoreless inning (none of this LOOGY stuff for Kuo) and his elbow is still attached upon returning to the dugout
5. Choi with an extra base hit
Four out of Five and I'll consider it a good night. Notice there is no mention of the score. I don't care about the W/L at this point.
Jim Tracy is definitely well-liked by most of his players (as has been documented ad nauseam), but I doubt his moves have garnered a lot of trust. I'd bet a lot of players think his routine is pretty dicey at this point:
"The bunting has failed us over and over again, but I like that skip is sending Repko out to bunt right now..."
?
Conventional wisdom states that managers cost there squad 4-6 games a year. I say 10 becasue I have witnessed at least seven and have read accounts of other games I missed. I don't think JT belongs in the median of 4-6. No way. And believe me, I've taken into account the games he's won us, or the credit side-- like yesterday, you could argue that by pinch-hitting Phillips he won the game. I've given him his due and still come up with 10.
You're right though, the issue of morale is a very shaky topic, like "chemistry," which I generally prefer to steer clear from. I just think there's something to be said about shaping the mental make-up of a team. In my opinion JT did this to an above average, detrimental degree this year.
I'd roll the dice on imports like Paul Byrd (for bottom of the rotation) and Matt Lawton (in the leadoff role for his OBP). If we shoot the moon for a pitcher, it better be a Matt Morris-caliber starter.
if its still sitting at 90-91 im going to be worried/dissapointed.
Aybar
Choi
Robles
Kent
Cruz
Navarro
Werth
Repko
Jackson
We can use RC/27 or VORP or some such to estimate how many more runs the team would have scored had Choi received 200 more ABs, Phillips 200 fewer, etc., and Pythagoras (channelled by Bill James) would tell us that how many more wins the team would have had (other things equal) but those are merely estimates. Luck might still have burned us. We might not have won many more close games, and might just have made some of the blowout losses into close losses. Look at the ChiSox and Twins. For the last few years, the Twins have been very lucky (outstripping their Pythaogrean W-L record) and the ChiSox very unlucky. This year, it's reversed (or was last time I checked).
And that's leaving aside the question of how many of JT's bonehead moves would have been made by any other manager as well. So the statement about the Tracy Factor being 10 games is ludicrous because it's unknowable. That doesn't mean it's wrong, however.
J Wilson
Bay
Macowiak
Doumit
Eldred
McLouth
Furmaniak
Fogg
for the Bucs.
With Mr. Clutch poised to pinch hit in case anyone gets on base in front of Choi.
I guess I'm the only one who can't stand Steiner. It sounds like he spits when he talks and when he's paired up with Rick Monday, they like to talk about random things that have nothing to do with game ("Yea, that steak dinner we had last night was fabulous") He has no idea where the ball is when it comes off the bat:
"And there's a flyball to right field!...and it's...caught (in medium right field)
Transcript from Steiner calling Navarro's walkoff HR:
...And here's the 3-2...flyball right center field and deep...it's way back there...and it issssss...GONE! A Home Run! Dioner Navarro with his first major league home run, it is a walkoff HR, and the Dodgers win it 7-6, the Dodgers are storming out of the 3rd base dugout, they'll waive(?) him at home plate, and now they're gonna BEAT him to death!
Steiner over described the play, rarely pausing, and giving too much information. He gets far too excited and is unable to control his emotions. It's a shame that Ross Porter was fired AND that he was replaced with an inferior announcer. One of my favorite announcers is Dan Shulman (who works for ESPN).
Trammell had Craig Monroe, one of his best hitters, sacrifice Pudge Rodriguez from first to second. Rodriguez hurt himself though and is out for a pinch runner in the person of the famous Nook Logan.
Huh? The CW is that the average managerial effect is negative? Since one team wins and the other loses each game, doesn't the average effect have to be zero? Or did you mean to say that managerial decisions affect the outcome of 4-6 games per year?
Look, I want JT gone too. I think he's shown this year that he's not the right guy for a DePo-constructed team. But while I also have been sure that at least 10 losses might have gone the other way with better decisions, I have no idea how many wins would have become losses with different decisions. It's a huge leap of logic to argue that most wins were despite the manager. Again, the counterfactual (what would have happened if...) is unknowable. So, with present technology, we can't quantify the W-L effect of the manager, and have to rely on subjective impressions instead.
Mine is that Tracy should be fired if he won't get religion. But I'm not going to pretend to have the numbers to back that up.
"Fins" is due for a hot streak, I've been told.
But wasn't it just the game he homered and doubled against Tampa Bay?
Better be careful there GoBears. You're being dangerously even-handed in this department.
You obviously didn't go to Jim Tracy Effigy Night.
You are not alone. I can't stand Steiner either. Among other things, he makes EVERY ball that is hit in the air sound like a HR. And yes, he gets WAY too excited. He's too much of a homer for my taste. He also asks really bad questions in the player interviews, and butchers a lot of name pronunciations.
please edwin, dont shelled.
Purcey - For the love of Choi, go study. There'll be plenty of opportunities to watch Jackonville, er, Jackson, pitch in the future. But you only get one chance to take this midterm.
If he gives up a homer to the leadoff batter, his ERA will go up 0.49.
and on the other shoulder: "nate, don't listen to him. Jackson might pitch a shutout and you could miss it".
just kidding. do what we all did in school. study while watching the game. and if nothing else, just remember this:
Assets = Liabilities + Owner's Equity
NO!
Granderson homers and the Tigers win 4-3 over the White Sox.
Meanwhile, back on the OTHER shoulder, "Yeah, but even if he pitches a shutout, it's against the Pirates. That barely counts."
114-
Choi/Aybar/Navarro= Tracy + McCourt's Beverly Hills mansion?
But his house(s) cost him a lot.
116 I missed Game 6 of the 2003 World Series to go see Rocky Horror Picture Show with a bunch of weirdos from high school. Not the movie even, some local theater company. Needless to say I was pretty mad at Andy Pettitte when I got home.
But that doesn't beat my little sister, who left in the 3rd inning of the Phanatic's Birthday game in 2003. You guys might remember that one, a Sunday afternoon, Kevin Millwood started against the Giants...
At least he hits for power. No?? 0 HRs in over 500 at bats.
So he must be an OBP machine. Hmmm. Not so much. .347 obp this year.
Why was he at the top of the lineup in Oakland this year?
I did in fact mean to say that the outcome of 4-6 games are "affected" by a manager as opposed to "lost" [and that bit of CW is just something I heard in passing on the radio]. So in reevaluating my nebulous assertion with that clarification in mind, there is admittedly no logic in arriving at 10. But there never really was any to begin with. Of course all of this is completely unknowable. No one has, or has even pretended to have conclusive numbers. It's merely subjective guessing with no base. So I'm still sticking with the ludicrous notion of 10. My eyes don't lie. :)
but yea, assets= liabilities + stockholders equity is all you need to know. if you know what goes in each part, you can use logic to figure out the rest.
Speaking of Ozzie Guillen, a baseball manager finally figured out how to get the attention of a football writer:
"I have never heard a manager or coach use the word "I'' as much as Ozzie Guillen. Who could enjoy playing for this egomaniac?"--Peter King
Granted, King is a man who thinks weekly updates on his latte consumption are newsworthy...
At least Jackson had a good first inning.
Colorado leads the Braves 6-5 in the 8th and could make it hard for:
1) the Braves to clinch the East
2) the Dodgers to clinch not finishing in last
I just looked it up, and it turns out that Kent, Cruz, and Navarro all happen to struggle against Wells' arm angle.
A) a recognizable "name" to the local media
B) have a Dodger legacy
C) willing and able to follow the DePo plan
D) can handle the media spotlight without melting
If Tracy leaves (fired or on his own volition) the leading candidates to replace him IMHO could be:
Kevin Kennedy
Jerry Royster
Glenn Hoffman
Kennedy is a name, a Dodger legacy, and can certainly handle the media
Royster is the Dodger AAA manager, and based on recent TV interviews, can certainly handle the media - and he knows the younger players
Hoffman is a loyal soldier, had the job briefly once before, and would probably accept the job again - even if it meant doing it DePo's way -- all the way.
I don't think DePo wants Dusty or Lou or Jim Leyland or some of the other old codgers who manage old "tyme" baseball.
He'd want someone the press won't nail to a cross when he's named the manager because he's not a "Dodger".
He'd want someone who is intelligent enough to understand his (DePo's) roster concepts.
He'd want someone who can stand the heat when the local media sharks are on the attack.
So let Tracy walk. There are options out there and they ain't that bad. It's all about being on the same page with your boss, the GM. And that won't happen with the current arrangement.
So, Atlanta's magic number remains at 2. If the Phillies win, they cut Atlanta's lead to four games, which would still be pretty hard to make up. Phillies lead 3-1.
The Brewers have rallied to go ahead of Cincinnati 12-9. A win would put them at .500, which would be a big deal in Wisconsin.
Halos led the White Elephants 4-0.
his arm action is a tad slower when he tries to throw his change up and when he tries to throw his slider he is going over the top more to get more spin on it
come on hee seop!
1. only 2 more innings to go
2. check!
3. eh, so-so so far. he can still get a hit.
4. not time yet.
5. check!
The statisticians need to start keeping track of those critical "intentional grounders to the right side to advance a runner."
I'm wondering the same thing about Aybar.
Who has more trade value, antonio perez or robles?
Who has more trade value houlton or jackson?
Rate the trade value of osoria, schmoll, kuo, meaning something like osoria has the most trade value then schmoll then kuo?
schmoll, kuo, osoria, i guess.
Thank for your opinion.
And thanks to anyone else who replies.
I used to want to be an accountant until I took an accounting class in high school and realized that if I had to do such tedious work on a consistent basis, I would pull my hair out.
Hey nate, are you studying accounting in high school (i don't know your age, sorry) or are you studying it in college?
i'm asking cause my major in college is accounting, i have a year and a half left.
snickers at stupid joke
i dont think i could ever have accounting as my major. i now fully appreciate the work of accountants.
Oh o.k. your going for a business degree, cool.
I love accounting, but i hate all the rest of the classes that have nothing to do with accounting that are required for the degree.
last year, BA rated jackson as having the best fastball in our system.
but jacksons fb has been sitting between 90-92.
how can an avg 91mph fastball be the best in our system?
id rather be the geek in the org that follows the prospects.
I've allways been good at math, so everything clicks when it comes to math stuff.
I like payroll, cost accounting for manufacturing businesses, and even some income tax stuff, but i wouldn't want to be a certified public accountant for doing people's taxes, cause it has alot of dealing with the public, i'd rather have a out of the spotlight job where i just deal with a boss, no dealing with the public.
And even tho I only got 1 person to answer my previous question, I'm gonna ask another question:
Rate the trade value of all these guys:
Izturis, repko, delwyn young, phillips, antonio perez, jackson, schmoll, osoria
Something like
1 jackson
2 izturis
3 antonio perez
And so on.
Credit to the rigth
Stand up
Sit down
Fight fight fight!
LOL, that was good.
might as well not show up at all.
Go figure.
2. perez
3. phillips!
4. young
5. schmoll
6. osoria
7. jackson
8. repko
2. perez
3. phillips!
4. young
5. schmoll
6. osoria
7. jackson
8. repko
i'm fairly certain the izturis-to-washington idea has been brought up here before.
1. Repko
2. Izturis
3. Phillips
4. Schmoll
5. Osoria
6. Jackson
7. Delwyn Young
(not numbered)Antonio Perez
That's how Tracy would rank them
Werthgagne31:
1. Delwyn Young
2. Edwin Jackson
3. Osoria
4. Izturis
5. Antonio Perez
6. Steve Schmoll
7. Jason Repko
This is the art of being a GM. The glittering future always has more trade value than the workaday present. But you don't want to let go of the wrong guy. In the 90s, the Dodgers let go of the wrong guy too many times. The Braves seem to rarely let go of the wrong guy.
Izturis would get you a lot assuming he returns from injury and picks up his 2004 form. A sterling defender at short who hits about .290 is a good thing to have. There are better hitters who play short, but not many better fielders at the position, and that's an asset valued higher in baseball than here. Ask the Yankee pitching staff if they'd give up a little of Derek Jeter's hitting and heart & soul in return for better throws to first.
bojangles
Only had time for the first fifty today - just wanna jump in and say I really enjoyed the "baseball as process" posts.
As for the contentious Mister Choi, assertions that all he needs are a manager who trusts him and sufficient at-bats against whomever are beginning to get a little old (though I agree that this was the year to opt for him, and really test him once and for all).
Noticed Bobby Bowden getting trashed again, here and there. More evidence of a lack of understanding re: humble pie rules. The Nats
were in it with about twenty games to go, in a much tougher division, and a GM position with much less wiggle room than Paulie had, and parallel crippling injuries.
This round goes to the Man-Who Doesn't-Get-It
over the patron saint of New Dogma. One of the many beauties of real-world ball....
(think of the Iraq of Paul Wolfowitz and others at Defense vs. real-world Iraq).
Kevin Kennedy
Ron Washington
Jerry Royster
Glenn Hoffman
Others?
I still believe Kennedy is a strong possibility. Not sure what "tactics" you are referring to - the Canseco pitching appearance? He's got big-time media savvy, and was known as a players' manager. Both are big pluses in these times. I believe he would be willing to work within DePo's scheme. He doesn't sound as reactionary or close-minded as some other ex-player/manager commentators (insert Joe Morgan's name here). He may not be a favorite choice of the stat clan, but he might be the right pick for this particular situation.
Yeah I watch Nip/Tuck. Just started watching it last year.
strong ties to dodgers, respected figure, seems willing to new ideas.
dzzrtratt
you forgot to rate phillips on the list, where would you rank him?
This might have been a worse play than the play that lives in Choifamy.
It may be too late there for the fans to boo.
A) a recognizable "name" to the local media
B) have a Dodger legacy
C) willing and able to follow the DePo plan
D) can handle the media spotlight without melting
If Tracy leaves (fired or on his own volition) the leading candidates to replace him nominated (in no particular order) are . . .
Kevin Kennedy
Jerry Royster
Glenn Hoffman
Ron Washington
Orel Hersheiser
I assume Schmoll or Brazo gets the 8th, and Duaner the 9th.
Carrara and Wilson Alvares should be the odd men out.
My apologies if this was posted earlier while I was away for a few innings.
"Marlins general manager Larry Beinfest said Burnett has been asked to leave the team and will not be offered a multiyear contract during the offseason. The decision came a day after the pitcher said the team plays scared because manager Jack McKeon and the coaching staff are too negative."
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2173336
Jackson = check
Aybar = check
Navarro = not a good night
Choi = check
Kuo = too early to tell
It's almost like last year when the Sox didn't get ARod....except not.
did JP tell you how toronto offered their GM job first to depo and when depo turned it down, they offered it to JP.
LIGHT UP THE HALO!