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SI.com
NL West Preview
Evaluating Defense
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Humbled Angels
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Unreliable Relievers
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2006 Emmys Nominees*
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ABC Fridays
Rookie Actors
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2007 Pilot Casting
Sublime Slime
Also ...
A Season in Savannah (Stanford Magazine)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2005) (Hardball Times)
Rick Monday (Baseball Analysts)
Baseball's Odd Couple (Baseball Prospectus)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2006) (Hardball Times)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2007) (Hardball Times)
Dodger home record: 39-30 (.565)
When Jon attended: 5-3 (.625)
When Jon didn't: 34-27 (.557)
Dodgers at home: 745-600 (.554)
Jon attended: 293-233 (.557)*
Jon didn't: 457-374 (.550)
* includes road games attended
Current Roster with Estimated 2008 Salaries
(updated March 28)
Most figures are estimates (some are wild estimates) but will be updated as information comes in. Corrections welcome.
More contract details here.
Starting Pitchers (5)
$12,300,000 Hiroki Kuroda
$10,000,000 Derek Lowe
$9,500,000 Brad Penny
$7,000,000 Esteban Loaiza
*$500,000 Chad Billingsley
Total: $39,300,000
Bullpen (6)
$2,000,000 Takashi Saito
$1,925,000 Joe Beimel
$1,125,000 Scott Proctor
*$500,000 Jonathan Broxton
$500,000 Chan Ho Park
*$400,000 Hong-Chih Kuo
Total: $6,450,000
Starting Lineup (8)
$14,100,000 Andruw Jones
$13,000,000 Rafael Furcal
$9,000,000 Jeff Kent
$8,500,000 Nomar Garciaparra
$8,000,000 Juan Pierre
$500,000 Russell Martin
*$400,000 James Loney
*$400,000 Matt Kemp
Total: $53,900,000
Bench (6)
$875,000 Gary Bennett
$600,000 Mark Sweeney
$424,500 Andre Ethier
$391,000 Delwyn Young
$390,000 Chin-Lung Hu
$390,000 Blake DeWitt
Total: $3,071,000
Disabled List
$12,000,000 Jason Schmidt
*$400,000 Tony Abreu
*$390,000 Andy LaRoche
Total: $12,790,000
Also Paying ...
$1,000,000 Brett Tomko
$750,000 Odalis Perez
$540,000 Yhency Brazoban
$500,000 Randy Wolf
$487,500 Jason Repko
$135,225 Rudy Seanez
$100,000 Mike Lieberthal
$50,000 Ramon Martinez
Total: $3,562,725
Working total: *$113,268,725
*Rough salary estimate
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3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
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11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
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Will someone, somewhere please go on the record? No? Oh well. Here's the Hush Hush update on the Dodgers.
Ned Colletti: An anonymous source told Steve Henson of the Times that the Giants assistant general manager aced his interview with the Dodgers and has a strong possibility of being hired.
Henson includes in his story this quote from a 2003 interview Colletti gave Baseball Prospectus: "How a player approaches the game, how he approaches life, far outweighs what the stat line looks like." This would seem to show that Colletti has the blind spot of not realizing that the stat line includes most of the relevant parts of how a player approaches the game - that whatever effect this has will show up in his statistical performance. On the other hand, Colletti does work for the team that employs Barry Bonds, so perhaps the stat line carries more weight with Colletti than he is letting on. Update: With his usual detailed analysis, Rob McMillin has much more at 6-4-2.
Theo Epstein: Anonymous sources told Tony Jackson of the Daily News that the Dodgers offered the former Boston GM the Dodger GM job plus an ownership stake - though we haven't heard any confirmation that Dodger owner Frank McCourt has even interviewed Epstein, or whether they just had a casual phone call. Holding my breath I'm not.
As a side note, the entire idea of the at-play ownership stake confuses and intrigues me. Would the McCourts want Epstein that badly? Or would they just be giving a way a sliver of their future to keep their current executive salaries in line?
Kim Ng: No updates on the current Dodger assistant general manager, which probably means that she's the fallback option.
Personally, I often dislike the signings the Giants make - and I think the superhuman performance of Bonds has disguised many of their mistakes. Everyone's crying about the Dodgers, but it's not like the 75-87 Giants were impressive in 2005. While Colletti might be a diamond in the rough, it's hard for me to believe he is vastly superior to Ng, who has the advantage of being in-house and familiar with the organization. Of course, I don't really know.
Is Colletti in the running because Ng has not won over the multipartisan Dodger political machine? Or is Colletti window dressing to position Ng not only as the best available candidate within Los Angeles, but outside as well?
On the player side ...
Milton Bradley: Teams aren't jumping over themselves to acquire the troubled Dodger center fielder, whom Ng and fellow Dodger exec Roy Smith have apparently shopped around. While there may be interest, no one appears eager to overpay, prefering to wait things out and either get Bradley cheap or as a non-tendered free agent. Again, Bradley's health might be as big a reason for this as his temperament*. Still, I seriously doubt Bradley has reached the status of a don't-even-come-near-us John Rocker.
Already suckers for public opinion, the Dodgers might have been as curious as anyone else to know how valuable Bradley remained.
Given the gloom that currently hangs over the franchise, the Bradley angst seems to fit in somehow. Right now, it seems that Bradley remains just another option in the Dodgers' search to fill out their outfield.
Hideki Matsui: Working with an unusual contract, Matsui becomes a free agent after Tuesday if the Yankees don't re-sign him. Late last week, it looked more and more like the separation might happen, but over the weekend reports emerged that New York would satisfy Matsui's salary demands.
If the Dodgers hit Spring Training with a six-man outfield of J.D. Drew, Bradley, Jose Cruz, Jr., Ricky Ledee, Jayson Werth and a star acquisition, that might be the best outfield in the division, depending only on how Bonds does in 2006. And it would provide a great head start on the Dodger bench. The salaries of Bradley, Cruz, Ledee and Werth would only add up to about $8 million.
*I found out Friday that I have been misspelling this word all my life. Somehow I missed that "temperament" has an "a."
I think Kim Ng should get the job because her name is easier to misspell. I'm already having problems putting the proper sets of double letters into "Colletti".
The only book of Colletti's available in the library where I work is the one he helped write with Jack Brickhouse.
I won a second grade Cathlic school spelling bee on "transubstantiation". Not a hard word, but certainly appropriate.
If you won on the word "transubstantiation" at a Protestant school, then people would have looked at you funny.
As long as the Dodgers can find someone that they are turning down, as opposed to someone who is turning them down, they can probably move forward with Ng.
Sorry to raise your level of agitation Curtis but we had better be "Ready for Colletti"
He has been quoted as saying that how a player feels about life is more important than his stat line and also has a long track record in Public Relations. I don't see how Frank can resist.
The only other thing to do is buy out Tracy's contract and bring him back, and it will be one big happy family.
One note on Milton Bradley: I think Bill James once pointed out that teams tend to make bad trades when they focus on who they are giving up, rather than on who they get. Since the Dodgers have basically announced to the world that they are fed up with Milt, why would anyone be offering much? They can just wait for the inevitable non-tender. So the Dodgers have basically commited themselves to getting nothing for him, it seems to me.
Epstein is loved by ESPN.
He's seen as 'cool' than a geek.
The guy played his guitar on Bronson Arroyo's CD.
He also has the WS ring to flash in everyone's faces.
I thought the Dodgers would get him. I just didnt think McCourt wanted him so badly he'd offer ownership of the team.
Thats the sweetest GM deal Epstein will ever be offered. He'd be a fool not to take it. Considering the talent coming up in LA, the market, and everything else that goes along with it.
In addition, he now has an excuse to use for leaving Boston. "I wanted to own a team. I couldnt do that in Boston. But I can do that in LA"
McCourt doesn't want another DePo. He wants someone in his mind who is better than DePo. If he can't get that, he'll go another direction to get someone better than DePo.
12, 13 - Doubtful the Dodgers would go all the way to arbitration with Bradley, if Bradley is staying. As they did last year, the parties would probably agree on a contract before a hearing.
Now as to why he would come work for an owner who has been so erratic, that's a different question. But I guess money + ownership stake + some sort of contract guarantee of "complete" control = who knows?
and I hope I didn't offend Mr. Klum with my "seel"
He might actually factor that in as a positive.
in a baseball related note, only a couple of minutes until the al mvp is announced. although i detest the dh, my dislike of arod is greater, so i hope david ortiz wins.
Chicago, Ill.: I was wondering what you think of columnists at supposed major newspapers who beat the drums to fire people? You've never struck me as the type to do that. I'm not even talking about say maybe one column saying that regretfully, maybe this isn't working out and maybe they should part ways amicably, but more along the lines of railing against the hire to begin with, coming up with derogatory nicknames for the person you want fired like "Google Boy," and basically never inviting the possbility that this person may have some qualifications.
Michael Wilbon: I don't like those columns. I don't read those columnists with great regularity. And I'm glad--even grateful--I work for a newspaper that does not endorse that and whose readers are more literate and sophisticated and discerning than that when it comes to reading habits. And thank you for a right-on-the-money observation.
Well, I guess being a rebel is your prerogative.
Thinking like that could find you in gaol.
I'd take him.
No, it wasn't Jose Lima. But Lima did make Baseball Prospectus' All-Hacking Mass team.
i am also jealous of his talent and paycheck.
i think that he is a guy that fans would love to have on their team (including possibly me), but hate when he is on another team.
karros sure could rake in coors field, couldn't he?
Is it that some people say "supposably"?
I doubt it, but I wouldn't misunderestimate the power of the nucular crowd.
True story: my first grade English class was promised a party by our teacher if everyone spelled every word correctly on our spelling test. Only one word was misspelled in the entire class, and the word was "a". The kid who misspelled it spelled it "ai."
I left out the first "a" the second time.
In first grade, I was eliminated on the word "cherry". I spelled it "cheery". In third grade, I was dinged on the word "balloon". I left out an "l".
I hated the school spelling bees because I was always the prohibitive favorite. It's not a lot of fun to get up in front of the whole school and have your classmates rooting for you to lose so someone else can win.
Oh well, time to go back to therapy after dredging up those formerly suppressed memories.
I had a happy childhood. I just got very nervous before spelling bees. Jon had it right. I was like the Yankees. Or USC football. Every year I was expected not to rebuild, but to reload.
Of course when I was in second grade, my mother told me that I worried too much and I would give myself an ulcer. So then I started worrying about giving myself an ulcer. She passed away before learning about the bacterial cause of ulcers!
there was a report on mpr (minnesota public radio) last year about a nuclear plant in a rural part of the state and the reporter consistenly said "nuculer". just like homer j simpson.
He just brought it up as an "evil thought". It's just a worst case scenario.
Just some quick notes from the Bill James Handbook 2006
Quick and dirty projections:
Choi - 17/258/361/462/824
Kent - 27/290/366/504/870
Izzy - 2/269/310/345/655
Robles 4/287/348/393/741
Aybar - 2/266/333/363/696
Navarro - 7/263/335/371/706
Drew - 25/293/409/525/933
MB - 17/279/362/458/820
J Cruz - 17/260/364/480/844
Werth - 10/255/347/433/780
Possible Free Agents
Giles - 24/412/492/904
Nomar - 18/307/359/506/865
Damon - 13/292/361/425/786
Mueller - 12/283/365/421/786
Randa - 18/271/327/435/762
Dodger Rookies:
Jdt - 10/262/318/440/758
Rumored Possible Trade Targets:
Abreu 25/294/415/498/913
Beltre 25/274/331/479/810
Blake 21/252/324/438/762
Branyan - 20/234/337/476/813
Glaus - 33/253/362/510/872
Kearns - 20/270/363/497/860
Thome - 32/261/396/534/930
Wilkerson - 16/256/371/409/780
HR/AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS
Long version: http://tinyurl.com/dazqm
"Tommy, you're a blowhard with a negative track record, having chased Paul Konerko and Pedro Martinez out of the house. Your insignificant contributions as permanent cheerleader don't begin to even equal the damage you've done as a GM and an "advisor" to Fred Claire before that. You're lucky we don't make you Vice President Of Saying "I Bleed Dodger Blue" In Countries Twelve Timezones Away; you've already made enough bad calls to merit firing and permanent exile to, say, Greece or some other baseball wonderland."
Or as an outsider, was he likely to say, "thanks for your input and I'll take it under consideration"?
Yeah. Plan B.
And a 904 SLG!
That puts us firmly into Jason Johnson, Bill Mueller, Joe Randa territory. Not good at all.
If Colletti is hired and Payroll is cut to 75 mil then I honestly think I'll have to take a few days off from work due to being physicly i'll. However I would be easily pleased with Kim Ng getting the position and a slight payroll cut to 90 mil. Though the only outcome that could get me to go dancing in the streets would be Theo getting the job and having full access to the promised 100mil.
Giles - 24/291/412/492/904
In fifth grade, in the school finals, I misspelled "annual." There was a poster in the back of the room that said "Vista Grande Elementary Annual Spelling Bee." I knew that poster was there. Had I not known, I might have taken a gander to my friends who were wildly gesticulating in the direction of the poster. I consciously decided to not look, in the interest of fair play. Suitably distracted, I threw in an extra "l" at the end. Game over.
The moral of this story is, of course, that honesty never pays off in the long run.
Looks like it didn't pay off in the short run, either.
but then i also pronounce the month february with the R, and hearing "feb-yoo-airy" grates on my ears.
my spelling bee story: when i was a 4th grader i lost (well, i got 2nd place) to a 6th grader in the district spelling bee on the word "bureaucracy". the thing is, i knew how to spell bureau, i just didn't realize that the words were related. bureaucracy has been the bane of my existence ever since. and now i aspire to work in government.
Depo's imperative to win now and rebuild at the same time was just too difficult, and set him up for a fall, unfortunately.
As for Colletti saying that he's more interested in a player's approach to life than to what shows up in the stat line, he's really saying he's not interested in a team's wins and losses, only in their approach to life. That's fine by me, as long as he stays with the Giants.
"I choose not to spell" was not an option in Catholic school.
Options about anything in Catholic school were not options.
How about "believing in God"? Was that optional?
Robles- .287/.348/.393
Aybar- .266/.333/.363
And then a bounce back year for Beltre:
Beltre- .274/.331/.479
Has Beltre ever come close to slugging .479 aside from 2004?
Everything else seems alright except those are real generous projections for Nomar. I dont think he can SLG .506
Why do you say this? Had the Dodgers not lost three of their four best players, they would have won the division easily. While it's doubtful they could have won the whole thing, they could always get some 2002 Angels esque magic and take a championship.
Assuming DePo's plans worked out, the key positions for our prospects were going to be vacated by 2007/2008, while weaker positions were wrapped up long term. It was a very solid plan.
6. Ned Colletti, assistant GM, Giants
Under GM Brian Sabean, the Giants have been known for staying below the radar. Similarly, two key members of Sabean's inner circle--Colletti and director of player personnel Dick Tidrow-- have quietly emerged as GM candidates. Colletti, 48, negotiates all contracts for the Giants and "knows the rules inside and out," according to another baseball official, while Tidrow oversees both scouting and player development and might be one of the game's most underrated talent evaluators.
Kim Ng got an honorable mention as one of the new wave.
Of the 2003 list only 2 have become general managers. Depodesta and Tim Purpura.
Here is the complete link:
http://tinyurl.com/boyp4
I went to Catholic school in the mid 1970s. At that time, the Catholic Church was a lot more liberal. Jesus was hip. Things were groovy. We sang songs from "Godspell" in church. We even sang "One Tin Soldier" as a hymn.
For those of you too young to catch on to those references, you can use Google.
The actor who plays Jennifer Garner's father in "Alias", Victor Garber, played Jesus in the film version of "Godspell".
I don't think James uses the complex methodology of the Pecota system like BP. I know that HQ uses historical history and park effects and health and everything else to figure out their projections. I have no idea what James does to come up with his results and I would take them with a grain of salt but it is still fun to look at the 1st projections for 2006. Later we will be able to compare them to Pecota and HQ and see how they stack up. Maybe tonight I'll compare the three projections systems for 2005 and see who did the better job on the Dodgers. I'm betting on HQ as they didn't expect much and we didn't produce much.