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Shortly after the Dodgers hired Ned Colletti as general manager, bloggers Jay Jaffe of The Futility Infielder, Rich Lederer of Baseball Analysts and Rob McMillin of 6-4-2 joined me in chatting about the future of the team under Colletti. And amazingly, someone unbeknownst to us recorded the entire conversation. Here's their EXCLUSIVE tape:
Jon: So, we meet the new boss. Same as the old boss? I'm not convinced there are likely to be as many significant differences between Colletti and Paul DePodesta as people think, considering that signings like Derek Lowe and Jose Valentin might fit right in with Colletti's resume. Maybe DePodesta and Colletti will be like night and day - I'm just not sure. However, there are some signs that Colletti might be less protective of the Dodger farm system - one difference that could prove huge. What are your initial thoughts?
Jay: I'm pretty uninspired by the choice; at first glance, Colletti seems like a graduate of the Anonymous Ciphers of Middle Management University. His purported strengths - "communication," "leadership," "chemistry," "experience," "old-school," "street smarts" - position him as the anti-DePodesta almost a little too perfectly, as does his background in sportswriting and PR. I mean, he sounds like Frank McCourt's wet dream. That alone is pretty scary.
Rich: Well, Jay, I wouldn't hold those attributes against Colletti as much as I would blame Camille Johnston, the town's new spin mistress. She is getting paid to say all the right things and make the McCourts look as good as possible, which, I might add, isn't a particularly easy thing to do at this point.
Rob: As with DePodesta, Colletti comes into the office with no apparent track record, unless you take seriously his comments from the 2003 Baseball Prospectus interview in which he says Giants GM Brian Sabean delegated much of the workload. The Giants have pretty consistently gone for veterans over youth, and have had a weak track record building their major league club directly from their farm. Some of this can be laid at the feet of Barry Bonds, who wants a ring before he retires, and the generally poor drafts the Giants have had lately; who knows what Colletti would do with a stronger farm system. But even Frank should be able to see that he can't win on the cheap and gut the farm system, limiting the amount of damage Colletti can do in 2006.
Jay: I really hope he gets a firm grasp on how strong the Dodger system is before he does anything rash. Sure, there are prospects there for the trading, as well as some who are certainly worth waiting for. He's got a great staff in place when it comes to the minor-league system in Kim Ng, Roy Smith, Terry Collins and Logan White, and he'd do well not to mess with what's not broken there and to listen to what they have to say.
I think we'll learn a lot more about Colletti as he searches for a manager. I'm just not so sure we're going to like what we learn.
Jon: Rob, your point about Bonds is well-taken, in that there is no obvious ticking clock for the Dodgers to win a World Series in 2006. And there's kind of this oxymoronic aspect to the team right now, in that so many people have decided that team is in terrible shape (hence DePodesta gets fired, though his firing may have had more to do with wanting Collins to manage), but at the same time, will people be satisfied with anything less than a division title next year? I, for one, might be consoled at this point just to see signs that the Dodgers are moving in a cohesive, cogent direction again. But if there's one thing we've observed about the McCourts so far, they are not a patient bunch.
Rich: "Patient" is not a word in the McCourt dictionary. The Dodgers, more than anything, need some stability here. But change usually begets change. It would be foolish not to expect Colletti to shake things up a bit. That is just human nature. As a result, I think he will do much more than just hire the next manager.
Jon: Another irony, in that failure to embrace continuity was another of DePodesta's supposed sins. Of course, Colletti will have the rationale of repairing a 71-win team, as opposed to a team that won a division title but still needed tuning up.
Rob: How can Colletti not do more than just hire the next manager? There's no coaching staff, the director of international scouting quit, their AAA minor league club is without a pitching coach. Seeing how promotion passed Ng by for at least the third time in two years, she's a good candidate to leave, too. They're lucky Carl's, Jr. hasn't closed their loge level concessions.
Jon: Ooh, I have to disagree with your last statement. We can do better.
Jay: Barring some catastrophically bad decision-making - and having just chatted with Giants fan Tom Gorman for his perspective on the hiring, likely coming soon to you in a BP article, I'm braced for Colletti to show he's clueless in player evaluation, trade blue chip prospects and hand out stupid dollars to aged free agents - it would be very hard for the Dodgers to bottom out any further than they did in 2005. They'll heal from their injuries, bounce back and contend in 2006 with a team that largely bears the stamp of DePodesta, just as DePodesta won with a team that bore no small amount of Dan Evans' fingerprints. It won't be fair, but then fairness has hardly been a hallmark of the McCourt regime.
Will that be enough for fans? I'm sure there will be no shortage of spin hyping what a breath of fresh air Colletti is after the demise of "Google Boy," and a lot of the optimism of the pre-division winning Tracy years will return. With the knowledge that the big dividends from the farm system ought to start paying off in 2007, it'll probably be enough. And if the catastrophe ensues, we'll see McCourt's corpse dangling from a lamppost. Which is win-win as far as I'm concerned.
Rich: I'm neither "for" nor "against" Colletti at this point. It is obvious that he wasn't Frank's first choice. In fact, he doesn't really fit the qualifications that McCourt set forth in the press conference when the Dodgers announced they were firing DePodesta ... oops, going in a different direction. Yes, he has experience (although he's never sat in the corner office before), but does he really know what it means to be a Dodger? He might be a good communicator, but does he truly have a "keen eye for baseball talent?" If nothing else, call me confused.
Jon: Well, while we resolve to be thoroughly guarded in our predictions for Colletti, let's try to set his agenda. Among other things, there is true mystery about who the Dodgers' third baseman and No. 5 (if not No. 4) starter will be, and true mystery about whether two statistically qualified players, Milton Bradley and Hee Seop Choi, will still be Dodgers by February.
Rob: If you agree the Dodgers need to wait until 2007 for Andy LaRoche to come up, well, that means another year of a stopgap at third. Jose Valentin having worn out his welcome by April, the Dodgers will have to get creative, unless they want to bring up LaRoche now. Also, going the free agency route doesn't appeal for pitching, as Jeff Weaver looks like he'll get a very big payday wherever he lands; does Scott Boras have a sports psychologist who deals exclusively with the psychic damage of high-priced mediocrities? Whatever happens, it won't be pretty and it won't be cheap, and possibly, it won't be short-term, either.
Jay: Third base is a position - maybe the only position - that the Dodgers have enough in-house to go stopgap with until LaRoche (or perhaps Joel Guzman) shows they're ready. Between Antonio Perez and Willy Aybar, you've got two young players who gave enough reasons to earn another look. I think other areas deserve more attention.
Rotation-wise, I think that's where the new GM is going to have an impact, for better or worse. Lowe, Penny, Perez, and Houlton/Jackson isn't going to be enough to get the job done, and Colletti might be thinking that he can use one of his better prospects in a package to get a more legitimate No. 1 starter. I'm not saying I want to see it happen, but there's enough on the farm to make a deal.
Rich: It all comes down to time horizon. If you want to win next year, you upgrade the starting rotation, the corner infield spots, and left field via free agency or by trading prospects (like LaRoche or Guzman, Russ Martin or Dioner Navarro, Chad Billingsley or Chuck Tiffany, and Jonathan Broxton) plus Choi, Perez, Aybar, and Jayson Werth. If you're not so worried about 2006, you might even do the opposite - you know, trade Eric Gagne and Jeff Kent for younger players who can help you in 2007 and beyond when the Dodgers could field one of the best teams in all of baseball.
Jon: I think the division still looks too weak, and that there is too much evidence of teams rising from the dead (like the phantom contender in Arizona this past year) for the Dodgers to give up on 2006. Certainly, the Dodgers didn't flip GMs to sit back on 2006. I think Colletti will pick and choose - go with kids in one place, sign a free agent for another position, trade a prospect to get a name vet in a third position.
Rich: I'm not saying the Dodgers will sit back on 2006. I have no doubt that Colletti is going to try and deliver a winner for the McCourts this year. The weak division will seduce them into thinking they can have their cake and eat it, too. That's too bad because anything they do this offseason at the expense of the future will come back to bite them in the butt.
Jon: OK, I'm going to throw this out there as food for thought. I wouldn't bet on it, and I've already been wrong once this month in predicting Kim Ng would get the GM job. But there's a contrarian feeling in me that McCourt, however improbably, has been sandbagging on the budget, and will try to shock the world by raising the Dodger player payroll above the $75-$80 million that people have tossed around.
Rob: Here's some horror stories to scare your kids into being good, Jon: Carlos Beltran. Adrian Beltre. Jeromy Burnitz. Dave Roberts. Character guys, all, and/or superstars, and/or former Dodgers expunged by the former regime(s) who only need the right chemistry.
Jay: Much as I'll be happy to see him gone, I think they're going to have to wait it out with Bradley if they want to get value for him. It's been a cold market because of the assumption that the Dodgers will non-tender him, and the injury - he may not be ready for spring training - adds another element of uncertainty to the mix. They'll have to go to arbitration with him, establish a market value, and then try to work a deal after he proves he's healthy enough. The other alternative is a "screw you" non-tender, but I think he's too valuable a commodity - to somebody - for that to happen.
Rich: Milton Bradley is history. The game company and the player are no longer good fits for what people want today. McCourt and Colletti seem to value "chemistry" - man, I haven't heard so much about chemistry since high school - so I think he will be traded or non-tendered. J.D. Drew goes to CF, Jose Cruz holds down RF, and Colletti picks up a LF via free agency or trade.
Jay: Choi? Anybody's guess. The new A's first baseman, perhaps.
Rich: Before his career is over, that poor guy might find himself having worn more uniforms than Lou Piniella and Jim Fregosi (cough, cough).
Jon: Ah, the managerial vacancy. I think maybe this is where I get off the bus. Parting question: Does anyone else think that by hiring a guy so endearing to the press, the McCourts have blown their own cover? Come March, I suspect Colletti will get the credit for any positive vibes and the McCourts will get the blame for any negative ones.
Rob: I dunno... you might rather have Ned Flanders as a neighbor, but the star of the show is still Homer Simpson.
Jay: "Hi-dilly ho, neighborinos!" Good lord, there's the problem. I just can't have a guy named Ned in charge of the team, because if 16 years of Simpsons has taught me anything, it's never trust a guy named Ned. Man, I want to punch that stupid jerk Flanders...
Rich: I think you are spot-on there, Jon. Even DePodesta could get some of the blame if Drew, Kent, and Lowe get hurt or don't perform well. But he won't get any credit whatsoever if J.D. is healthy, plays 140+ games, hits over .300 with 30 HR and 100 BB and plays a Gold Glove-caliber center field -- all of which, I believe, is within the realms of possibility.
Regardless, I think I'm with Jay Jaffe in this discussion, I just haven't seen anything to really recommend him at all.
So, we meet the new boss. Same as the old boss? I'm not convinced there are likely to be as many significant differences between Colletti and Paul DePodesta as people think
Maybe it's true. I'm certainly trying to keep an open mind until actual moves are made. But you know what's depressing to me? The feel I get is that the whole thrust of the Dodger organization now is to be as much like everybody else as they can possibly be. Hire good old "baseball men" who know how to be "baseball men" like all the other "baseball men" who've also known about baseball. (So, you hire Fergosi because he's been places, not because of the place he could take you.) It's as if the idea isn't to aim higher than other organizations, to blaze trails and leave them behind, but simply to be as unremarkable as possible. I'm not saying that the GOAL is actually to be mediocre or not to win, but it's as if you're supposed to win by being more of an amalgam of "every other baseball team" than are any of your rivals. (Not sure that's clear. I guess it's hard to express.)
I realize that at this point, this feeling is mostly the result of the thrust of the PR spin. After all, supposedly we could end up with Collins as the manager, just as was the case when DePo was in charge (though I highly doubt it), and he's another guy whose been around before. And who knows what players we'll actually end up with? But if the spin is supposed to calm me down, make me somehow think that baseball adults are in charge now and everything will be OK, it doesn't work. It just makes me think that there's no reason to get my hopes up too high. I do worry that the road to respectability too often heads straight through mediocrity.
I agree with the comments in 2. The Dodgers plan du jour is to now be like all the other teams. Not to think differently. Not to be innovative. Even though the Dodgers past is full of innovative ideas: integration, statistical analysis, training methods.
There has to be some sort of sociological reason why baseball teams don't want to innovate. Why they want to operate like they did in the past. I wonder if much of it is a reaction to the increase in salaries and the greater power that players have. This makes baseball management and the media that covers them want to find something, anything, that might seem familiar to them.
I don't believe the McCourts are savvy enough to know why they are behaving the way they do. They are just grasping at branches as the swirling vortex of winds that is major league baseball buffet them about.
Winning teams don't need to. What they confuse is correlation (winners don't change their methods) with causation (if you keep doing the same things that cause you to lose, you will continue to lose). Stability isn't necessarily a good thing; ask the Devil Rays, whose front office has had, until this year, the same guy running the ship since inception.
How did this progress from seemingly innocent quotes in the Times last week conveying his interest (which we dismissed as the usual statements from an underemployed baseball guy) into front runner?
As a fan, I respect him as very, very, good player 40 years ago, and for the "Yes We Can" Angels of '79, but this is really a stretch.
Good God almighty in heaven above, this pain will never end.
i mean i asked this the other day but with izzy out and only oscar as a decent defensive SS on the roster, who would back him up if he decided to get hurt in the first half of the year?
I don't know about baseball teams in general, but for the Dodgers, I think the answer comes out of psychology (the armchair variety, of course!)
McCourt has deep feelings of inadequacy. He's like a guy who sold his life insurance policy to buy a membership in an exclusive country club. He's in the door but he doesn't really feel like he belongs, and fears that any minute someone's going to take a look at his bank account and toss him on his rear. That's a load of anxiety.
DePodesta only increased that level of anxiety because, for better or worse, he was "controversial." Plaschke and Keisser hated him, and the national media found him indecipherable. His innovations started to seem, to poor Frank, like yet another guy casting around for a plan, rather than a real plan. DePodesta was Frank's doppelganger, and out of self-loathing and fear of exposure, he had to kill his (good) twin. That explains why McCourt seemed so uncomfortable at the news conference. Like a character in a horror movie, he'd just shot his own image in the mirror.
Hiring Colletti is a "comfort" move. Yeah, it makes the Dodgers like every other team--which is exactly the protective coloration McCourt needs. Sure, he'd like to win, too. Winning in '04 made him feel like he "belonged." But now, even if the Dodgers don't win, McCourt's done something so utterly conventional, in accord with the rules of the club, that it won't raise the same fears of being tossed out.
A "comfort" manager like Fregosi (though Piniella would be better--I'm not sure Plaschke does cartwheels over Fregosi), combined with a "comfort" shortstop like Clayton and a "comfort" outfielder like Giles, further cements McCourt's feelings of safety and security. Now he can relax, tell jokes with the other members, take a few swings at the driving range, and feeling like his fraudulent heart will not be discovered--not yet anyway. Not til the bankers come knocking.
9 - I didn't buy into his discussion of individual character, since the individual characters that have been on the Giants are no better than anyone else's.
Think of the McCourts' PR possibilities with that move.
Perez can hit, but, to the naked eye, there are reservations on his fielding ability. I think as a full time player his offensive comp could maybe be that of a Furcal (.285/ .350/.420. I don't see him getting a good look though.
That's why the Mike Lowell talk--which at first seemed absurd--has started to make sense. He's a one-year answer; how many of those are out there who has played at his level? He's Jose Valentin, except with more upside potential. He might or might not bounce back. He's in no position to make Boras-like demands for money or length of deal. He could work in tandem with Aybar, giving the manager options.
Colletti's going to be judged by how he addresses starting pitching, left field and right field--and oh yeah the manager. But how he solves the short-term problems at third and short are important micro-moves.
And maybe if he puts Clayton and Lowell on the roster, Choi's inexpensive contract and solid upside might get a pass for another year. Choi is so low-risk. If he's lousy, you can move Kent (or Lowell) to first, and play Aybar or Perez at second. He costs nothing. But if he comes around, he's a great tradeable asset when Loney arrives.
Per Jon's analysis here, Perez was the best defensive 3b we fielded last year. Even if we sign Nomar I'd like to see Perez filling out the left side over Robles.
But would it be productive to put Guzman in a backup SS role rather than allow him to continue developing at Vegas? I'm not sure I want our up-and-coming kids to up-and-sit. If it means Guzman gets a year of work in on his swing, I'll stomach the likes of Clayton backing up short for a year.
Re: LF Giles seems to want to play for a sure-winner so I'm pessimistic we can sway him with the Dodger mystique. Jacque Jones and Preston Wilson are the nightmare alternatives- a sure sign Colletti doesn't get it.
Philly needs a long-term solution at catcher and CF. Seems like a Navarro/Bradley/prospect package could net us Abreu. That's the kind of deal DePo would do if it could be done. Let's email this rumor to Rosenthal and see if he runs with it.
I know OPS+ doesn't tell the whole story. I'm not sure that Robles can repeat what he did last year.
OTOH, I know that Clayton has only had 2 seasons in his career that surpassed the production (based on OPS+) of Robles last year and the last time he did it (98) was in 1999.
I'll take the young guy who may or may not be productive over the old guy who we know isn't productive and will be expensive.
Even if Florida picks up a lot of it, that still a lot for someone whose numbers plunged last year, even if he's only 32.
Well, given that Izturis is likely to miss half the season, I think the idea as it stands (going back to Nate's post at 7) is to start Robles and have someone on the active roster to backup the SS position. I just don't think that backup should be Guzman. If you want Guzman to start, I'm willing to discuss. But using him as a backup (as Jon seemed to suggest), I'm not sure that's a good idea.
The Rockies are showing interest in catcher Paul Lo Duca, who is owed $12.5 million over the next two seasons. They've also asked about Guillermo Mota.
I've also been thinking that the recent hostility to the innovative stathead movement is the pespective of those who see sports as a sort of morality play. They want the winners of sports to have "character", to embody teamwork, integrity, scrappiness, loyalty . They want them to embody the qualities that we deem important in life. That's why guys like Plaschke turn everything into a morality tale. And why he can't stand a perpective that says OPS is one of the major factors in a winning ballclub. It seems to me that he would have difficulty in seeing the players of sports as simply having certain physical skills that have nothing to do with character. For he desperately wants the winners in sports to be good guys. But in sports and life, "winners" are not always people we admire or like.
If Robles and Perez are still on the roster and they both go down before Izturis is healthy, you call up Guzman as your shortstop. If not, he stays in Vegas and continues to play everyday.
That bit encapsulates the "morality play" aspect of baseball you're talking about. "Radio Days" is a funny film for those who haven't seen it.
A Lowell scenario would basically entail LA taking Lowell off Florida's hands (Florida being in the midst of one of its periodic salary dumps) for little back in terms of player value, and with Florida being forced to pick up a couple-three mil of his salary each year.
I just watched "Radio Days" last week and was going to post something about that scene, but I forgot. Funny stuff.
That's a good post.
In some respects, the "character" issue has also been making its way to the NFL. Supposedly, the great success of the New England Patriots recently is because the team has a bunch of good character guys. I guess they aren't very good players. Or the coaches didn't a good job. They are prevailing on sheer force of will.
Plaschke wrote recently that one of Pete Carroll's biggest challenges would be handling the case of Fred Maualuga, but I doubt that problem is nearly as hard as figuring out how to keep his team prepared for each week's game.
Nevertheless, football has always rewarded innovation. Coaches battle with each other to come up with new offenses and new defenses. Everybody wants to stay one step ahead.
Baseball's strategies are less fluid. It's not like there's a Clark Shaugnessey out there who's going to draw up the T-formation for baseball and make everybody change.
If you want to draw a parallel in football, I guess you could think of the 1921 World Series pitting the home run hitting Yankees (the T-formation team) taking on the little ball playing Giants (the single wing team).
Essentially, the question is, who is the Dodgers' 2006 third-string shortstop. Or fourth-string, if you count Antonio Perez.
22, 29 - understands what I'm saying.
Essentially, the question is, who is the Dodgers' 2006 third-string shortstop. Or fourth-string, if you count Antonio Perez.
22, 29 - understands what I'm saying.
a menu of our up and coming
minor leagers or guys that spent
some time in the bigs last year by
position and then perceived value.
Is there a list/link that I can go to?
https://dodgerthoughts.baseballtoaster.com/archives/250590.html
Was that free verse you wrote, or just weird paragraph breaks?
You are indeed correct, Rob. Someone has to decide to employ Plaschke and Simers. It's not like the two of them come to Bill Dwyre's house every day and blackmail him in to keeping their jobs.
Plaschke is regarded highly by Dwyre. So he stays. Dwyre thinks Simers is very funny, so he stays too. They create interest in the paper so they stay, or so is the operative theory.
For the majority of the newspaper buying public, Plaschke is a wonderful heart-tugging writer. He's the Times celebrity journalist with the outsized personality. No one reads the L.A. Times sports for serious analysis of ideas. They read it for a succession of gleanings of recycled opinions.
The Phillies trade idea intrigues me. They are also looking to trade Vincinte Padilla and bolster their rotation. Maybe something like:
Abreu, Lieberthal, and Padilla
for
Bradley, Navarro, and O. Perez
Maybe I didn't know any better...
Weird? If you are asking about the condensed look, I don't exactly know why I do that. I do in email too.
Considering that the sport's gatekeepers demonize such mild innovations as using a computer, who can blame people for not taking true risks? I would love to see a team try the 4-man rotation, just because it would be such a radical change from accepted practice. (And because it just might work.) But in today's environment, it seems more likely that a team would fly to games on a magic carpet than try something like that.
Cora is a decent second baseman or utility type player. Defensive issues aside (and IIRC, Kent really wasn't that big of a step down), it is pretty hard someone can rationally justify Cora being better than Kent.
Yes, I did, from Bill Dwyre himself. He said understood his opinions and backed up his staff and hoped that I at least found the news gathering people on his staff didn't bother me. If I didn't like Plaschke or Simers, I was told to not read them.
It's when Moneyball came out and seemed to rub DePodesta and Beane in the faces of scouts--a romanticized profession--that suddenly, a lot of baseball pros and pundits got stressed out about where this was going. Combine that with the dreaded word "Harvard," and you can see where this is going. Baseball people don't all go to college period, much less Harvard. This sounds threatening. Boo Hiss.
That Michael Lewis book's net effect on the progress of sabremetrics in baseball might be a wash or a net negative. When I read it, I thought, yeah, of course. But now it's a badge of honor to refute it.
My suspicion, though, is that it's all theater. Colletti's PR image will be of a backslapping throwback. But after midnight, I'm sure he'll be sneaking into Kim Ng's office to check out DePo's stash.
Many tried. There are still a few stains on the floor from those days.
"Tommy Lasorda likes new Dodgers GM Paul DePodesta because "he's Italian and grew up in Philadelphia." If these were prerequisites for the job, the hiring process would have lasted 25 years . .
You're right. I'd rather have Navarro than Lieberthal, but I was looking at it from the Phillies perspective. 23 mentioned that they are looking for a long-term solution at catcher. Lieberthal would be a stop-gap for us until Russ Martin arrives.
Would they consider just Abreu + Padilla for Bradley + O. Perez?
But as far as 58, etc: Yes, from what I understand, including a young catcher in the deal would make sense for Philadelphia. But if it happens, I think it will be Martin, not Navarro, that goes. I realize a lot of people think Navarro is going to be merely very good but Martin could be truly outstanding. Still, Martin is completely untested vs. major league pitchers and a tad older (I think). Wouldn't Colletti be more likely to keep around the young catcher that he has some reason to believe can contribute now and for many years to come, than to create a hole and hope Martin would work out. I don't see Lieberthal coming over with Abreu. Too much $$$. Meanwhile, Philly could play Lieberthal while making sure Martin is ready to take over -- and they'd get the higher-ceiling prospect in the deal.
I wish I shared your confidence on that. And I give Colletti the benefit of the doubt. But it's just a little difficult to imagine him presenting a player's WARP and OPS to McCourt as justification to acquire someone. Hasn't McCourt, by his own actions, made that harder to do? When your predecessor gets run out of town, most tend to avoid repeating the perceived mistakes. Even if Ned believes in such stats, he's gotta wonder if he'll get laughed out of the office if he starts throwing them around.
Yeah, I'm dreaming...
http://www.knowledgeplex.org/news/120204.html
http://tinyurl.com/7oqww
Furcal won't happen. This morning it was announced that Chipper restructured his contract to free up money to re-sign Furcal.
At some of the D'Back blogs, they think they are making a hard run at LoDuca.
I would rather have Nomar at third but what about Glaus? Expensive, has two years left, not great defense, but has power. Would rather see him than Lowell or Beltre's return and Az. really wants to get rid of him. Just a thought.
I heard Tommy interviewed on 710AM after Depo got launched. During the whole in interview about the GM search, whenever he got the chance to say Depodesta's name, he mispronounced it, calling him DepodesTOE. It seemed intentional to me.
Mike Lowell - The reason Lowell has an expensive contract is because he was one hell of a third baseman before 2005. 3b who slug 500 in a ballpark like Florida and play great defense don't grow on trees. If you trade for him you won't be giving up much because it will be a salary dump by Florida. If he bounces back you have a top 5 NL 3b at a decent price for the production and only 2 years left on his deal. If he is at the end of his career at the age of 32 then your on the hook for a lot of money that might have gone elsewhere. Part of me says take the chance and part of me says don't do it because of the fact he fell off so huge in 2005 when testing was initiated. If his hitting stays at 2005 level then it would be a huge miss. If he falls between pre 2005 and 2005 then he would be expensive but given his defense I would live with it. If he bounces all the way back then we'd all be very happy. I'd pass but wouldn't be to upset if Colletti takes a chance.
Nomar - when he's healthy he hits. His defense is horrific at SS but he could plug in if Robles gets hurt while were waiting for Izzy to heal. Still has the ablity to post a > 500 slug%. He's my choice but I imagine he's also the choice of many GM's so what will it take to get him to come to LA.
Aybar - He will do if we upgrade other positions but it will be hard to compete if Izzy and Aybar are manning the left side. I like him but I'd trade him if someone is looking at his Sept numbers. He's only going to hit around 250/350/390 and that is not enough for our 3b.
LaRoche - don't think he's going to be a star. Defense will be average at best but the power is for real. Looks like Ron Santo, stocky, thick player hard to picture him playing SS in college. He might be ready but don't expect him to be a world beater in 2006. Should give us much better production then Aybar could and I would not have a problem with him being the starting 3b in 2006 but I'd temper my expectations.
Koskie - Toronto needs to make room for Aaron Hill. They can either trade the golden glove of Orlando Hudson or move Koskie. He has 11 million remaining on his deal. Pass
Randa - Solid glove, free agent, limited power, kind of player Colletti MIGHT like but I don't see him doing much more then LaRoche could do right now. Pass
Mueller - injury risk, free agent, winning attitude:). If we sign a free agent I'll take him for one year if Nomar is two expensive or just isn't interested in us. Ex-Giant-Sign him up.
71
I'd take Glaus but I don't see Arizona trading him to us unless Byrnes rapes us in the process.
You make good points regarding the Phils search for a young catcher. How about this:
Abreu + Padilla + cash for Bradley + OP + Martin
Is anyone else going to see 'Walk the Line?'
....
...
And that is why Moneyball is a great book.
Padilla pitched 115 innings in '04 and 147 innings in '05. He doesn't seem much more durable than OP.
His OPS+ the last couple of years was 96. His career high was 127 the same as OPs career high in '04.
Unless it is for money, I just don't see what moving OP for Padilla does to strengthen the team. The offense sucked last year, but the pitching was worse. The new GM should be looking to add arms, not swap them.
http://tinyurl.com/8bhmv
81- i think the swap is supposed to make them trading Abreu not seems as harsh.
http://tinyurl.com/cevyv
You're right, it is for the money. Many similarities between Padilla and Perez. Two reasons why I'd rather have Padilla:
1) Money
2) The Phil's home park only trailed Coors Field in hitter friendliness last year in the NL. (the relative value of Abreu should also take this into consideration)
Acconding to what I've read, the Phils seem intent on not having Padilla on their roster next year. Are there character issues with him?
The Phils would shed money, which would allow them to go after other players. At the same time, the trade would address three issues for them: CF, young catcher, bolster rotation.
(again, I don't know why they are intent on getting rid of Padilla. He had a ribcage injury this year, but not something that would hinder him in the future I think)
Hey all, thanks for helping me explore a trade with the Phils. I feel we have a match with them this offseason.
And he doesn't pitch alot of innings.
FNL is probably my favorite sports book.
Orel Hershiser's book is a good read too.
Would I do that deal? Heck if I know. There are others here who are better informed than I, and better able to evaluate it. But I'd assume that it depends on the pitching prospects involved. Billingsley = no.
I think the DePo firing will just go down as one of those things you cant explain.
Anderson said he signed with the Nationals because the team showed interest in him the moment he filed for free agency.
"They let it be known that they had interest in me. Things with New York didn't pan out the way I thought," Anderson said. "The Nationals gave me an offer. With the things that I do [off the bench], I thought it was a fair deal. It was more than anybody else was offering."
I hate when players who take the most money, say they signed with that team because they want to win.
Odalis Perez's 2005 ERA+: 89
Vicente Padilla's 2005 ERA+: 96
Odalis Perez's career ERA+: 100
Vicente Padilla's career ERA+: 106
I'm not saying he's a little or a lot better than OP. He may be a bit worse. I'm just saying that he's cheaper and could be expected to contribute nearly as much as OP.
I like the idea of getting Abreu. How much is the offense upgraded if you trade Milt though? I understand that Abreu is a far better offensive player, but the trade in general doesn't seem to help the team that much.
Giving him the benifit of being injured this year, wouldn't you rather have him than Padilla, a guy whose best full season ERA+ is 116, and his been sub 100 the last two years.
right?
The point of the trade isn't to bolster our rotation. The point of the trade is to bolster our lineup, while at the same time preserving the quality of our rotation.
Lots of holes in my proposed trades, but I still feel we are a good match with the Phils for a trade this offseason.
Its a tough business, but at this point I'd rather have Padilla and the extra millions from shedding OP's contract. Anybody know if there are character issues with Padilla?
Given the lack of options out there, I'd rather see if he can pull his value up, and then think about trading him.
Good point, but with the dearth of free agent starting pitching this year its hard to say exactly how other teams may value him.
Bear, I think it can be explained, just not by Frank.
The explanation is Frank was too weak or impatient to withstand the perfect storm of some bad decisions, bad luck and bad bad injuries. He had been drinking his own Kool-Aid about 2004 and couldn't stand the heat when things went south in 2005. Depo wasn't offered up because of Collins or dinner with Orel or any other single reason other than Frank had to do something to get the media of his case. In the end it all comes down to what Ratt eloquently described in 10 above, Frank's self consuming insecurity. Frank took a risk with Depo and when it didn't payoff he decide to go the conventional route so he could look just like everyone else at the next owners meeting. What he doesn't understand is if they were laughing at him before, they are falling on the floor after the last three weeks.
I'll be checking in on the Thousand Oaks-Rio Mesa football game. I'm sure it will be the highlight of anyone's Friday night.
1. LaRoche ranked 11th best AFL prospect. Said that if he plays winter ball that he probably will not be competing for starting job in 2006 but if the Dodgers decide to rest him that means they are looking for him to try to win the job in 2006.
2. Kemp ranked 17th best AFL prospect, which given his age is very good. Middle of the run producer.
3. Loney - Kliene said he liked Loney over most of the BA staff and expects him to hit with a high average and 20 home run power.
4. Martin - Not in the AFL but when asked if Sal...... from Atlanta was the best catcher, he said he'd rank Martin as the BEST catcher in the minor leagues. High praise indeed.
The guy who said this is right on target. Pitching wins championships.
If we can keep both houlton and jackson in the minors, and acquire 2 starting pitchers, the offense won't need to be as strong, and we will have depth in the pitching staff in case of an injury.
I read that the dodgers are seriously pursuing brian giles, excellent news.
I know what you mean, you still need enough offense.
And defense, i'm not a big fan of, i'd rather have offense before defense, but if you can get both offense and defense in your players its all the better.
But bottom line pitching wins championships, its just we had no offense in 2003 and we sacrificed offense for defense, a big mistake. If we would have had more offense and less defense with the same pitching in 2003 the team would have been much better.
The 2003 Dodgers held the biggest differential between first and second place in ERA ever. Tracy's managing would have mattered, he could have drawn names out of a hat, and that player would have got the job done.
Shuey? Sure, that'll do. Mota? Why not. Heck, Tom Martin stranded something like 80% of the runners he inherited.
The more I think about it, the worse that year was.
Don't you think someone will nab him in the rule V draft after the great job he did in the AA playoffs? Doesn't look like he's going to make our 40 man roster.
My major concern was voiced elsewhere with regards to Giles. If you are a free agent, why in, er, heck, would you want come here, it looks like it's a rudderless, un-piloted ship drifting towards rocky shoals, and that's exactly what it is.
Does anyone else expect Ng to go elswhere pronto? If I were another organization, it would seem she would be primed for change.
"Better Living . . . through Chemistry"
The Shef is really good, but he does come with a lot of strings attached. He is a high-maintenance player.
The guy I really like is Brandon Sing. The Cubs have decided not to carry him, probably because his age and batting average. He'll be 25 next season, and carries a career batting average of .252. However, his career line is .252/.357/.468. Over his last 2 years, he's hit .273/.403/.554 in 817 ABs. He can play 1B and the 2 corner OF positions (milb.com lists him as a 3B, although I believe his fielding there is Saenz-esque). He doesn't have any experience at AAA, which is obviously a concern, but I see enough upside to risk drafting him. And if he fails, at most we lose $25K
if memory serves, he said, "it's not my fault you gave Karros a no-trade clause when he has no value"
Certainly, giving him the 4 year contract for the money that he was paid before he was able to veto trades (and it was even dumber for the Sherriff to put a no-trade clause if there was one in the contract) was a goofball idea.
i also recall Mondy dropping the infamous, "f davey f daly" profanity-laced tirade
what a colorful time in Dodger history
Meh, just skip the houses and go right for the hotels.
I join everyone in mocking the "chemistry" obsession, but even the most geekiest stat-geek could agree that having these guys around made your skin crawl sometimes.
I'm guessing Hershiser had little to do with DePo's firing
I had it bookmarked, but then deleted it when I realized that I didn't really want to listen to the Lakers.
Congratulations. You're the first person in sports history to utter that particular arrangement of words.
I'm a Lakers fan. But I can't stand to watch Kobe anymore.
1st Quarter
The Clippers shooters are hot
Kwame Brown is doing a great job on the boards
Mihm is having a nice game
Over/Under on shot attempts by Kobe: 30
I never change allegiances; I just stop watching all together. But the Clippers appear to have a good team this year with Casell, Mobley, and Brand. They should definitely finish higher than the Lakers.
It's not that the lakers need a bunch of all stars, they just need guys who can spot up and shoot
I agree. Buss made the wrong decision in keeping Kobe. However, Kupchak should have gotten more for Shaq. Odum, Grant, and Butler were not equal value.
I think they already did...
Dead-on, Jon. That's reasons #1,2 & 3 (with a bullet each) to expect trades, and FA signings that fill in the cracks, and get the Blue Crew into the playoffs - after that, anything can happen - right Ozzie?
"I think Colletti will pick and choose - go with kids in one place, sign a free agent for another position, trade a prospect to get a name vet in a third position."
That's a sound basis to expect Giles, Garciaparra, Randa, Mueller, Millwood, Clayton and other FA's to be courted and maybe signed for one, two or three years.
As for trades, I believe Colletti will use one or more of the "kids" to land a really big fish -- Dunn? Helton? Abreu?
Thanks Jon for your insight, and a forum for thoughtful discussion.
MB
Everyone else: 12-25
Clippers 53 Lakers 45
The Good (for each team)
Brand 13 Points (5-11 FG) 5 rebounds
Cassell 14 Points (4-6 FG) 4 rebounds 4 assists
Maggette 12 points (5-10 FG)
Kobe 4 assists
Mihm 10 points 7 rebounds 2 blocks
Kwame 6 rebounds
Smush 10 points (4-8 FG) 3 assists
Good free throw shooting from both teams
The Bad
Wilcox (1-3) FG no rebounds 1 turnover in 8 minutes
Clippers 1-6 3 point shooting
Mihm 3 turnovers
Kobe (5-15 FG) only 1 rebound
Odom only 3 rebounds
Rotoworld speculates the mystery team could be in the NL West. The Giants were known to want Morris, and it wouldn't surprise me if Colletti wanted him as well.
At this point, the Dodgers appear to be guarunteed 4 picks in the first 2 rounds if they play it smart, so I wouldn't be surprised if Colletti is trying to sign players early to get them slightly cheaper (and following his Giants strategy). We get the 7th pick guarunteed, then 2 for Weaver, and 1 for Dessens. Dessens will likely give us a 2nd rounder from KC/Colorado, and Weaver will give us a sandwich and a 1st/2nd rounder
I have reason to believe it was nto the Giants
It looked like the Lakers were going to make a comeback because of the play from Odom late in the game, but Kobe tried to be the hero.
Kaman and Brand were great.
Maggette was awful.
...does anybody else (Hobos?) see Tampa Bay making a play for Sheffield? That move buys Sternberg a LOT of "wants to win" credibility, brings him home so he can chase his uncle Doc around, and the NYY can possibly pick up a CF (have to mention Gathright) or some arms (Baez?)
Lakers should have kept Caron Butler, and played Kobe at the 1, Butler at the 2, George at the 3, Odom at the 4, Mihm at the 5.
Smush is much better suited coming off the bench.
The above Laker team could have played an up and down game similar to the Phoenix Suns.
Kwame Brown is useless. I'm much rather have kept Caron, Kobe, Odom with Kobe playing the PG.
Trade Kobe to Chicago for Tyson Chandler, Kirk Hinrich, and filler.
Play for the draft; Daniel Gibson is a stud point guard, who should come out next year.
Trade Chris Mihm and filler for James Posey
Possible Lakers team:
PG: Daniel Gibson
SG: Kirk Hinrich
SF: James Posey
PF: Lamar Odom
C: Tyson Chandler
No huge egos, much better defense, solid all around team. With some veterans on the bench, this would be a playoff team. Of course, the Lakers would never do this because Kobe makes Jerry Buss a lot of money.
Why didn't McCourt think to extort glowing coverage from the Times? Maybe their ad buy isn't as big as GM's, but it probably would have been worth so Timesian grovelling.
Dodger General Manager Ned Colletti is scheduled to interview managerial candidate Jim Fregosi in the Tampa area today, with front-office executives Kim Ng, Roy Smith and Logan White sitting in on the meeting.
The LA Times. The Clement Haynesworth of the journalism world.
Finally, the Dodgers made some decisions that pleased the Most Important Man in Los Angeles, Bill Plaschke. They fired Paul DePodesta and hired a guy who watches a lot of batting practice.
Sure, most of the guys DePodesta got rid of had lousy years, and a team depleted by injuries missed the playoffs by exactly one Eric Gagne. But DePodesta should have known, like the All-Knowing One, that potential stars Milton Bradley and Jayson Werth would crash and burn. He should have kept aging underachievers Finley and Green and flash-in-the-pan Beltre, not because the Dodgers would have been better, but because the Most Important Man in L.A. would have given his blessing.
And DePodesta would still have a job.
GREG BLACK
Redondo Beach
I wouldn't mind bringing in Beckett, even with his poor durability. Lowell makes the decision harder. If this has credibility (the Palm Beach Post and Fort Worth Star-Telegram are both reporting it), it shows the Marlins are in full firesale mode as predicted.
I liked that letter. I also liked this one:
If It's a Longshot, Kobe Will Take It
Against the 76ers last week, Phil Jackson designed the last play in which Kobe Bryant was supposed to penetrate toward the basket and take a close shot or pass to Smush Parker if his defender doubled up on Kobe. Instead, Kobe freelanced by taking an admittedly off-balance, long-range jumper after already having missed 19 shots.
Why, it almost makes me think the kid is uncoachable.
RICHARD RAFFALOW
Valley Glen
If that's the case, well played, Mr. Hershiser, well played!
The Giants added minor leaguers INF Travis Ishikawa, OF Nate Schierholtz, C Eliezer Alfonzo and Ps Jesus Reina, Kelyn Acosta and Jon Coutlangus to the 40 man roster.
I'd be shocked if Collins were hired. I'm surprised he's even getting an interview. Maybe it's just a PR ploy to appease Depo-supporters.
Well, at least the BITGODs will be happy with the return to the "Dodger way" that has been brought about with the hiring all of these true-blue Dodger icons...
FWIW, Colletti will be on Hacksaw's show at 11:30, he said.
With a bit of perspective, it has to be admitted that DePodesta's managerial search results were kind of anticlimactic. They all had one great virtue in common--not being Jim Tracy. I thought Trammell could be okay, but that was mostly a gut feeling. Royster was a logical interview, but not stirring. The rest of them were...odd.
Fregosi seems like a ridiculous choice. But not much more ridiculous than DePo's candidates, it has to be admitted.
I'd rather have Valentin at $3 million than Alfonso at $7 million.
And Felipe Alou wouldn't let him near the starting lineup down the stretch because he wanted to use the "red hot" bat of Pedro Feliz.
Comment: I guess he was just a one-night stand for Frank McCourt and Tommy Lasorda, who were apparently doing nothing other than cheating on Paul DePodesta.
Players on the 2005 Dodgers who hit more home runs than Alfonzo did last year include Jason Grabowski and Mike Edwards and Oscar Robles.
Players on the 2005 Dodgers who hit more home runs than Alfonzo did last year include Jason Grabowski and Mike Edwards and Oscar Robles.
And don't forget this gem:
HRs
Izturis 2 in 444 ABs
Robles 5 in 364 ABs
Valentin 2 in 147 ABs
Edwards 3 in 239 ABs
Alfonzo 2 in 368 ABs
Flanders: Are you listening?
He also tried to sneak into a "Skull and Bones" meeting, but only because he thought it was "Dull and Drones."
Or maybe the point is, once again, that DePodesta might be different from Colletti, but they still live on the same baseball planet. It's not a 180 degree swing from one to the other. That I agree with.
Plus, looking at this psychologically, the very last team on earth I would trade Bradley to would be the Giants. How much motivation do you want to give a rival? Bradley will hound the Dodgers til the end of days if he's sent to the Giants. Every ball pitched to him would have Frank McCourt's face on it. Every time he came to LA, he'd imagine the stands full of Jeff Kents in white robes.
If we must send Bradley away, send him to Toronto.
That's a good point.
Baseball fans approach the idea of any new manager with much fear and trembling.
If Bradley IS traded to the Giants, it will only confirm my suspicion that Colletti is a mole planted by Sabean. What is unclear at this point is whether the McCourts are involved in the subterfuge. Based on their behavior thus far, I'm guessing they are.
I agree. If Bradley is playing for the Giants, Barry Bonds would be wondering why everyone else in the stands at Dodger Stadium is so nice to him.
You would need National Guard troops to handle security in the pavilions.
Last years team had a lot to overcome, despite being young, the team lost its head coach midway through the season. Despite this the Lakers were in line for a playoff spot when Kobe was injured. Wow, can you imagine an LA team missing the playoffs largley because of injuries, and everyone convienently forgetting that fact and blaming the convenient targets? Sound familiar?
The Lakers front office didnt hang onto Kobe because he is a "name" player, if thats all that mattered why did they trade Shaq. They stuck with Kobe because he's one the 5 or so best players in the NBA, and he's got plenty of prime years left.
I agree that it wouldve been nice to get more for Shaq, but that was the best offer Kupchak could get, remember that Shaq had to approve of any trade. As for Shaq, he missed time due to injury last season, is already injured this season, and when he's healthy he can't play a full game. The guy was great but he's in decline, and a very poor investment going forward. If LA had, lets say, traded Kobe and kept Shaq, they would be in a similar situation to the Giants with Bonds; trying to win one more for the "big fella" while sacrificing the future.
Now Im not saying Kobe doesnt have his flaws or that he some great guy. But Kobe doesnt get any breaks from the media, and probably never will again. But to claim that his "intangibles" are so bad that the team would be better off without him is wrong. Look at characters like TO, Ron Artest, or even Milton Bradley, Kobe is far from being at any of those levels. There seems to be a phenomenon in sports that when a team fails to meet expectations, people tend to blame the best player (see Phillies, Bob Abreu). Why?
Im starting to see a lot of Barry Bonds in Kobe. Both guys are somewhat aloof, narcissisitic (sp?), and have a terrible relationship with the media. Both are also increadably talented sons of former ball players, who combine that talent with a great work ethic. Like Bonds, Kobe seems to be trying to prove every one wrong, thats why they both seem to feed of the negative reaction from other teams fans. This kind of scares me because Im not a big fan of Bonds, suprise, and the idea of watching Kobe follow the same path doesnt appeal to me. But, like Bonds, Kobe, no matter what his issues, is just too good a player to be without.
I'm not convinced Kobe is a "great" player. He was helped quite a bit earlier in his career by having Shaq draw triple-teams, as would any player have been. Without Shaq, he doesn't look very impressive. Scoring 30 points doesn't mean much when it takes 30 shots. The last 3 seasons his FG% has been .438, .433, .435. Again, not impressive.
"Will you be able to keep him [Kent]?" "I have no doubt"
If he had 5 more guys like Kent, he doesn't care if all they say is "heelo" and "goodbye"
Won't talk about Bradley, he needs to think "heavily" about it. Doesn't know about Weaver. He has between 3 and 8 people to consider for manager. He keeps emphasizing they must play the kids. No Piniella or Baker then?
Colletti talked on and on and on and...I can't wait until the day where he actually includes useful information in his babbling
To be fair, Depo never revealed useful information in his public speaking either.
You don't have a future in PR. Or academia then.
Once you get to college, you will meet a lot of people who talk a long time and never say anything.
After they get out of college, they grow up to be Camille Johnston.
like jim tracy?
www.sabrdodgers.blogspot.com
yankee homerism at its best.
A bunch of top prospects could also help
This actually seems pretty significant to me. If this were DePo saying it, we'd probably interpret it as a reference to and swipe at Tracy.
Does anyone else get the feeling that Colletti is interested in pushing our prospects to get the big leagues faster?
i think the trade isnt going to work out for either team.
if you look at becketts home/away splits and blalocks home and away splits, it does bode well for future success for either if this trade happens.
eFG% factors in 3-pointers. Kobe's eFG% from the last 3 years: .483, .468, .482
Sounds better right?
TS% factors in free throws. Kobe's TS% from the last 3 years: .550, .551, .563
To compare, Shaq was at: .602, .578, .583
Garneet's TS% has been: .553, .547, .567
MJ's peak TS% was at .614, and during his pre-1st-retirement, stayed at around .600.
Stats from: http://www.basketball-reference.com/
I'd get league leaders but I haven't found any (only looked right now). According to active players, Kobe is in the top 30 for TS%.
Kobe hasn't been that bad a shooter. Sure MJ was better and sure he could shoot a higher percentage, but he's not as bad as you make him out. Baseball isn't the only game with archaic stats.
does choi count as one of "the kids"?
So...Kobe is in the top 30? That sounds about right. The guy is turning into one of those players who has gaudy totals, but primarily because he plays lots of minutes and takes lots of shots, not because he is an efficient producer. I would have to think that a lot of players could put up similar numbers if given the chance.
i dunno, im on the fence with this deal, i dont see it drastically tilted towards either side right now.
i bet, if the dodgers approached the marlins about beckett, theyd probably ask for:
martin, billingsley and guzman.
martin to fill their catching void after they dump lo duca, billingsley to fill becketts spot, and guzman to fill RF when they move cabrera back to 3b.
Reggie Miller , Brent Barry, Peja, Brad Miller, Wally Szszerbiak, Jon Barry, Dikembe Mutombo, Jon Barry, Bo Outlaw, Eric Piatwoski, Wesley Person, Othella Harrington, Chauncey Billups, Christian Laetner, Steve Smith, Ruben Patterson, Mike Miller, and Kelvin Cato.
You can't judge a player simply on his TS%. Of course there are guys that shoot a high percentage but don't do other stuff. There are stats that cover more of a player's true value, like PER (Player Efficiency Rating), Player Wins, and even (gasp!) Win Shares. The only one I've been familiar with is PER and it's very common.
Info about PER here:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/per.html
Kobe's last 5 years have been:
24.4, 23.2, 26.2, 23.7, 23.3
This year, his PER is at 25.4
Typical MVP years have PERs around 29-30. See:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/PER_year.html
Kobe has finished: 8th, 5th, 5th, 8th, and 6th in the last 5 years.
There's room for improvement of course, but Kobe has been a top 10 player for the last few years, certainly.
so therfore, d4p's view of kobes on the court abilities is certainly a very biased viewpoint.
There's no question I now think Kobe is a jerk. But I also am not impressed by his game. I've seen WAY too many rushed, forced shots that I'm sure were not what the coach was looking for. I actually think he has a lot of talent, and could be a lot better if he changed his attitude and approach to the game. He could and should be among the best, but I think he falls short. He seems very stubborn and unwilling to change.
I'll be shocked if Phil serves out his contract, unless Kobe is traded/hurt. Kobe must drive Phil crazy. There was a reason why Phil called him uncoachable in the first place, and from what I've seen this season, Kobe hasn't gotten any better in that respect.
We don't talk about the years between Magic's HIV press conference and Phil's arrival. They never happened.
I thought about using the word 'poster' but it did not sound that great. I was here for that conversation but it just completely slipped my mind.
No Disrespect to Jon...
what would you offer from a dodgers perspective.
its probably going to be blalock +diamond/danks for beckett+ lowell..
away:
243 .300 .407
home:
316 .382 .560
becketts 3 yr splits:
away: 4.10
home: 3.41
So, lets say, Guzman + Tiffany + Jackson to Fla for Beckett and Lowell. If we could get any money to come along with lowell that would be nice, but he would help provide depth at third either infront of or behind Aybar.
I'm betting that Jon is not up on The Farm today.
.304/.362/.478
I could easily see Lowell having a better 2006 than Nomar considering health. Beckett will make say $5M and $7M in '06/07 via arb. You're saving $6M vs. market rates and maybe you buy out a FA year or two.
Judging by his home/road splits, his value could decrease a lot if he came to LA
I agree on not liking to watch the Lakers, but I don't want to see Phil unhappy. He's my favorite aspect of the team right now. I always thought it was a mistake from his perspective to return.
Just to put things in perspective (and I know they play different positions), Choi put up an OPS+ of 110 last season. Beltre had a terrible year last year and his was 90.
That's one of the things that most troubles me about Kobe. He plays "correctly" for a few games, and then abandons that approach and reverts to ballhog. You'd like to think his game would mature over time, but that doesn't seem to be happening. And part of me thinks that if Phil can't change Kobe, no one can.
And when I was at UCLA, I went to an NIT game at Pauley Pavilion where UCLA lost to UC Irvine.
And I've seen UCLA lost to Cal State Northridge in basketball also.
No stone casting here.
By the way, Chris Mihm is overrated and Kwame Brown is worse than advertised. I never thought I would long for the consistency of Elden Campbell in the post.
Saying that Mihm is overrated is saying a lot, as he isn't rated that high to begin with.
This PR thing isn't easy. They pay a lot of people in this world a lot of money to do it, and most of time, it only leads to disappointment.
A great slugger we haven't got
[Derek Lowe]
A great pitcher we haven't got
[Ned Colletti]
A great ball club we haven't got
[Oscar, Derek & Ned]
What've we got?
[ALL]
We've got heart
All you really need is heart
When the odds are sayin' you'll never win
That's when the grin should start
My sarcasm must not translate in writing.
If you told me back when I was in school (80-84) that in 25 years I'd still be waiting for their first NCAA tournament appearance, I wouldn't have believed you. However, yeah, there have been multiple periods of respectability as well as a handful of NBA players.
There's no way that Alfonzo for Bradley deal goes down. Alfonzo is garbage now. He can't hit, he has no power, and he doesn't play defense. He is a worse hitter than J.T. Snow! I wouldn't take him for more than the league minimum.
If Texas includes Danks or Diamond, then it's a bad deal for them. Blalock was a very good hitter in the minors and in his first full season. Then he tried to hit for more power and his BA and patience at the plate decreased, while his strikeouts increased. Blalock is the type of hitter who should be competing for the batting title.
Who would I give up for Beckett? Choi, Edwin Jackson, and Navarro. Beckett is helped by his home park, but he strikes out a lot batters, gets more groundballs than flyballs, and doesn't give up a lot of home runs. He might be willing to stay with the Dodgers when he becomes a free agent because of Penny.
Congratulations to Wazzu for winning the Apple Cup.
The Civil War and Big Game are about to kick off.
UH is suffering severe attendance shortages at Aloha Stadium these days, in part because of a lousy record and in part because of PPV. There's also a big discussion with the Stadium Authority about banning beer sales at the stadium, and possibly (although how it would be enforced is beyond everybody) in the parking lot as well.
The UH crowd is always an exemplar of good behavior.
Especially if BYU comes to town. (BYU and Utah tied late in the game in the battle for the Beehive Boot.)
How about this: it's an afternoon game not because televsion demanded it but because MSU is on its way to the Maui Invitational (memorable because Chaminade beat #1 Virginia and Ralph Sampson there in 1981 or thereabouts) and wants to attend the banquet over there tonight. I'm shocked.
Compared to what? ;)
beckett
-amazing stuff
-big game pitcher
-only 25, best years are probably ahead
-has that texan pedigree-clemens, nolan ryan, etc
-lingering injury problems, especially blisters
-never pitched more than 180 innings in a season
zito
-lefty with above average secondary pitches
-former cy young winner, only 26 years old
-HUGE innings eater
-very durable, no injury history, no signs of breaking down whatsoever
who would you acquire? do you value zito durabilty over becketts potential?
We were told how wonderful the Notre Dame fans were when Navy visited by Mr. Naccarato.
Of course, an usher who works there said that during the Tennessee game one fan decided to urinate on the Tennessee fans sitting in front of him.
That is hard question because you know what Zito is going to give you since he always plays, while Beckett could give you potentially more. I am swayed to o with Beckett though because he is under contract for two more years I believe while Zito is up after this season and has Boras as an agent.
I really don't want to watch a lot of people stagger around drunk in the name of "school spirit."
agent: Arn Tellum (fired Scott Boras late in 2001 season)
USC gets a spot if Oregon wins.
But UH really hates BYU and BYU does not like to travel there. It helps that they are in different conferences now.
I doubt UH fans are that much worse than fans in other places where you can drink a lot before the games. Cal fans are not exactly known for their hospitality.
It's like anything else; a few drunks make it appear far worse than it really is. They're the ones who get on tv, so everyone assumes the whole crowd is like that.
zito= tiffany
only in my dreams right?
Utah, prevailing 41-34 in overtime.
Actually, with UH I think the image problem was more with the players getting into fights on the field than the fans. But that seems to have been curtailed recently.
Who still has hope for Edwin Jackson to be more than a Ramon Ortiz?
BA says tiff has an avg fastball but above average cb and change up to go along with his "moxie". personally i dont believe the avg fastball comment. in his scouting video of him pitching in HS, he was reguarly hitting 93 and sitting in the 91-94 range. so if somehow he lost velocity since being in the dodgers system, i wouldnt call 91-94 an "average" fastball, especially coming from a lefty.
Who still has hope for Edwin Jackson to be more than a Ramon Ortiz?
i personally still believe in jackson. apparently so does baseball america who says his big league comp is john smoltz. I personally dont see a smoltz comparison, but hey, im not the one that threw it out there.
it could be that back spasms last year zapped his fb velocity from what we saw in LA towards the end of the year. Becuase if he can really only pitch at 88-92 now, hes turned into jerome williams.
I'm not sure that he will ever compete for a batting title. He plays in a hitter's paradise 81 games a season now. I think he is a decent hitter, but way, way overrated.
Mark Teixeira on the other hand.. drool...
Will James Loney get a chance at the major league roster this coming spring?
Speaking of Edwin Jackson, his agent is Scott Boras, so we should be interested in dealing him. If he turns out to be a bust, we won't want him. If he turns into a great pitcher, he'll walk as a FA.
raglani- AA jacksonville OF
dewitt- high A Vero 2b or 3b
tiffany- AA jacksonville
miller- AA jacksonville
hu- AA jacksonville SS
abreu- AA jacksonville 2b
elbert- high A vero
denker- high A vero 2b/3b/lf
laroche- AAA vegas 3b
guzman- AAA vegas ss
martin- AAA vegas
young- AAA vegas 2b/lf
loney- AAA vegas 1b
ruggianno- AAA vegas OF
i personally would like loney to start off in vegas and then if he shows his power from the AFL is for real, get called up by june.
According to Gammons, the Marlins are asking for Hanley Ramirez and either Jon Lester or Anibal Sanchez. They'd also want the Red Sox to take Lowell's contract, which might be a dealbreaker. Beckett for Ramirez and Sanchez would probably be worth doing for Boston. Beckett's a health risk, but he's still a better bet for the future than A.J. Burnett and he won't command all that much money in arbitration over the next two years.
-Rotoworld
We could easily top that deal. Hanley Ramirez is all hype, though he is pretty young. Anibal Sanchez=Justin Orenduff. Offer Navarro, Orenduff, and Jackson for Pierre and Beckett. Then we can flip Pierre off to some other team. Pierre to the White Sox for Aaron Rowand?
I sure hope they don't get too use to playing with Weber and Meadows (who were both re-signed). And Tiffany and co. better not like their catcher as he repeats AA with them
Final: UH 84 MSU 62
Coach Riley Wallace gets his 300th career victory (against 241 defeats).
your going to give ausmus a 4 mil a yr deal and give up a top draft pick?
Any deal before then would likely be orchestrated by the holdovers in the front office, such as White. He didn't sound like he was in a rush to do what he did with the Giants. I also don't see anything major happening without a manager
zzzzzzzzzzzzz....
Oregon is on its way to putting USC in to the BCS.
his blister problems have kept his innings relatively low from his 22-25 years, thus keeping his arm in good shape to log innings in his prime.
he also has the build of a prototypical power pitcher and hes a type of a pitcher, like clemens and ryans, that could age very well into his 30s.
The White Sox have interest in acquiring Juan Pierre, perhaps for Damaso Marte and/or Aaron Rowand.
It doesn't make a lot of sense, but with multiple sources reporting the story, there must be some truth to it. Pierre is both a worse player than Rowand and the more expensive of the two. Plus, he'd only be under the club's control for one year. If the White Sox do decide they need Pierre to go along with Scott Podsednik, they should at least refuse to give up Rowand in the deal and try to use him to upgrade elsewhere.
"i have to believe"
See, go for the triple negative to cross 'em up.
And what would he cost? An NRI at most!
Kenny: Hi Ned. Congratulations....I want Pierre.
Ned: Thanks...well...I just traded for him, but I suppose I'd be interested Aaron Rowand
Kenny: I'll give Rowand and Marte!
[Ned chokes on his caviar]
Ned: What .. what was that you just?
Kenny: I'll give you Rowand and Marte..is that not enough?
[Ned places his hand of the receiver of the phone and tells Kim Ng about the possible trade]
Ned: Well Kenny, I'm really looking for another starting pitcher, so I'd be interested in that kid Brandon McCarthy.
Kenny: As you know Ned, Brandon is one of the top prospects in my system. I would need a comparable prospect in return.
Unaware that the year is 2005, not 2003, Kenny replies:
For the deal to work, I would need Edwin Jackson.
[Shocked by the response, Ned high fives Ng and say]:
YES! DEAL! Fax it over right now!
Dallas shot 81% from the floor, Detroit 28%. And the ESPN box score indicates that Dallas has -1 turnovers.
I'm not sanguine about their chances against Notre Dame next week. 184 yards of offense isn't going to get it done.
Notre Dame is beyond reproach according to what I've been told. If they're good, college football is somehow more meaningful.
It's a load of horse hockey.
I'm hoping that South Florida wins its last two games and gets a BCS berth.
Since Oregon won, USC is in the BCS (big surprise!). If there were a miracle and UCLA upset USC, I highly doubt that UCLA would get a BCS bid. The at-large spots will go to Notre Dame and Ohio State.
Anybody know why the UCLA/USC game isn't the same day as all the other Pac 10 rival games? Actually, did ASU/U of A play today?
ABC wanted a Pac-10 game to be played on the same day as all the conference championships.
The game will be in December in 2006, but return to its normal date in 2007.
A few years back UCLA played Washington State after USC and another year USC played Oregon State.
Hmmm...
http://tinyurl.com/89t9e
And Reggie Bush doesn't have enough returns to qualify.
and normally i like rooting for underdogs, but i gotta root for USC because i really really want them to beat texas.
What else are we supposed to do while waiting for the game to unfold?
"He said it wasn't the right time," said Colletti. "He said a year from now he'd be all over it. But he didn't know if he could do it justice."
Gurnick also makes it sound like Colletti really isn't interested in Collins, he was talking to him. All this from dodgers.com, as I'm sure Gurnick gave it away
The story on LATimes states in part:
Dodger General Manager Ned Colletti, three other Dodger executives and manager candidate Jim Fregosi met Saturday afternoon in Tampa, Fla., a 3 1/2-hour conversation Colletti called "a pretty great exchange."
Lou Piniella, citing a need to take a break from the game after being bought out by Tampa Bay last month, told Colletti on Saturday that he has no interest in becoming the Dodger manager, and it appears Terry Collins will not be a candidate after all.
Colletti met with Collins for about an hour Saturday. Collins said the subject of managing the Dodgers never came up.
"We just talked about the organization," Collins said. "The players, staff, facilities, things like that."
Asked whether he took that as a sign he would not be considered to manage, he said, "I didn't take it as anything."
He said he was not disappointed, and that from the meeting he concluded that he could work well with Colletti, if that meant continuing in his role as farm director.
If you're a fan of Mexico or Guatemla baseball, then I feel bad for you, as they'll never be in the Olympics again (unless baseball is reinstated). The US, Canada, Nicaragua, and Panama all made it to the next round
The Fort Worth Star-telegram said major league officials have confirmed there's trade talks, and has said Danks is the pitching prospect in question. A deal could be reached as early as tomorrow
I can't imagine that the Angels would let Bud Black go under these cirumstances. Or why he would want to take such an awful job.
I'm not too good at coming up with names. I got the generic stuff like the Dodgers League and whatnot, but that's boring. The most creative thing I have is "The Colletting Whitesmith"
And yes, this is of the utmost importance. Can you tell I'm bored by halftime?
FOUR!
That has to be a pretty low total during the shot clock era. I imagine that some games where a team stalled most of the game might have had fewer. The NCAA doesn't keep a record for fewest fouls. They do keep a record for most fouls called against a team in one game.
That's 50! By Arizona back in 1953. Their opponent Northern Arizona got called for 34 fouls.
Delaware St. attempted ZERO free throws. That's gotta tie the record...
Fewest points in a game is a 1973 game between Tennesse and Temple.
Final score: Tennessee 11, Temple 6.
The Maui Classic is a lot of fun to watch.
In 14 seasons, Fregosi put together a lifetime .484 winning percentage, with 5 winning seasons and 2 division titles. In addition to those credentials, while he never played for the Giants, he was born in San Francisco.
Colletti should waste no time in signing this man.
The Trojans take on CSUN at the Sports Arena at 2 pm Sunday.
It's the last year at the Sports Arena for USC. I'm sure everyone will be very teary-eyed about it.
Fresno is having a hell of a game. I like USC, but I think I may have to root for my dad's alma mater
vr, Xei
Emmett White of Utah State in 2000 against New Mexico State.
One other national champion has had a game in which it has given up 42 points, Penn State in 1982. They lost to Alabama 42-21.
I was covering the Rio Mesa at T.O. game. Very exciting game.
Not every local game was exciting. Oaks Christian won 77-7 or something like that.
vr, Xei
And that interception sucks
vr, Xei
vr, Xei
But UCLA isn't going to make it to 42.
I wonder if anyone on the East Coast even knows how the game ended. They likely won't know about the result until Monday. After tomorrow is an NFL Sunday.
For entertainment purposes: Fresno covered the spread, which was around 24 points.
Brown Could Be Out Two Weeks
Total Offense
732 David Klingler, Houston vs. Arizona St., 1990
696 Matt Vogler, TCU vs. Houston, 1990
625 David Klingler, Houston vs. TCU, 1990
625 Scott Mitchell, Utah vs. Air Force, 1988
612 Jimmy Klingler, Houston vs. Rice, 1992
406 LaDainian Tomlinson, TCU vs. UTEP, 1999
396 Tony Sands, Kansas vs. Missouri, 1991
386 Marshall Faulk, San Diego St vs. Pacific, 1991
378 Troy Davis, Iowa St. vs. Missouri, 1996
377 Anthony Thompson, Indiana vs. Wisconsin, 1989
373 Astron Whatley, Kent vs. E. Michigan, 1997
Total Offense is passing + rushing + receiving.
Whatever became of him.
I'm still trembling.
Anyway, so I'm feeling the effects of a solid tailgating session and on the Colorado State sideline who do I see? Tommy Lasorda!?! What? We were skeptical until some shlub starts screaming for him. Tommy dismissively waves him down.
Lasorda gets interviewed by the CSU journalism students and proceeds out of the stadium...probably to Buca. :) Too bad, wanted to subtly pick his pickled brain at the concession stand.
The nearby fans and I were trying to figure out the degrees of separation here. It was some entertainment for us before the Rebels proceeded to give back the game to the Rams.
I guess that means Tommy is not part of the new brain trust or he'd be in Florida.
The Dodgers' next manager might turn out to be Bert Convy, Pearl Bailey or Lola Falana.
And the "Superstars" competitions of the late 70s and early 80s.
I think right now, he runs as fast as Jason Phillips.
"The Texas Rangers are among the teams with whom the Marlins have discussed such a deal, but according to a league source familiar with the talks, nothing is imminent. Other clubs open to a Lowell-Beckett package are the Red Sox and Tigers. The Angels, Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies, Pirates and Giants could enter the bidding as well."
from the licey.com site. updated stats fron 11-20.
Guzman is destroying the DWL. which is great news. other news, his K rate is way down from his season averages.
73AB 12R 25H 6doubles 1triple 3hr 15rbi 10bb 13k
342/424/575
BB/PA: 12.04%
K/PA: 15.66%
BTW: Why did Lowell suck so bad last year?
Good news on Guzman, especially the walks. How about Brazoban and Aybar?
Aybar is struggling, .143/.182/.238 in 63 ABs. 3 BBs, 12 Ks, 3 2Bs, and 1 Hr. Not sure what to make of it
http://tinyurl.com/7at2l
There's no one "money quote," but this will do: "Why is Tony Muser so simple? Why is he so blind to modern baseball practice and strategy? Why does he play favorites with some undeserving players and banish others to his doghouse? Why all the tough talk about tequila and 'live grenades' and 'combat'? And, most importantly, why do the answers to these questions all add up to a very bad major league baseball manager?"
Why does he play favorites with some undeserving players and banish others to his doghouse?
I thought the Dodgers just got rid of that guy...
"He has been working on another pitch, something like either a slider or a cutter and he has been extremely susccessful with it, i have seen him strikeout batter just on that pitch, different from last year in wich he wanted to simply blow the opposition away, 1-1 0.73 era and 9 saves, 13k in 12.1ip...The other day i sat behind home plate, where all the scouts sit with their radar guns, he was constantly 96mph, slower than last year but with more control and mixing his pitches better."
I have no reason not believe him, but it is dodgers.com and you never know. Go to the following thread to ask him something about the DR:
http://www.forums.mlb.com/n/mb/message.asp?webtag=ml-dodgers&msg=54882.1&ctx=0
"If Colletti is looking for a great leader, someone who has won and knows how to win the last game, I'm sure he's just talking to Fregosi to find out if Fregosi knows anyone who might meet those qualifications."
He also averaged 50.4 points per game.
He has yet to ask permission from any other teams. This does help to prove my theory that Colletti is GM in name only to serve as the guy who talks, and we really have a super 4-headed GM
The person who invited us tonight had valet parking at $50 a pop. How long before Frank does the same further congesting the egress in and out of DS for the rest of us plebs?
i really dont think colletti is running the show. hes just the PR part of the the GM group since hes good with the media.
I am embaressed to say at $25, I would do it. Already paying $10. It would allow me to get there on time, stay to the end and save me 30-60 mins on the way out. That's worth $15. I have to guess it will be more like $40-$50.
LAT- how was the caviar, wine, and cheese? More importantly, did you see any celebrities?
Jack and Diane were there. (Not as in John Melencamp's song) Larry David. Jessie Jackson. Some R&B woman named Cierra (sp?) with the biggest bodyguard you ever saw. Saw Diane Cannon, Jessie Jackson and Larry David in the valet line. Diane Canon close up. . .very scary stuff. Its time for her to stop pretending to be in her 40s. Larry David was pollite to the valet guys (for whatever that's wort). And Jessie Jackson is in a celeb league of his own. Lots of people (read black women) coming up to him to saw hi or tell him how much they admire him. He had more cache then any of them.
It wouldn't. I don't live far from the stadium and I generally get home pretty quickly anyway.
I have no idea how valet parking at Dodger Stadium would work because or the traffic flow. They almost would have to build a dedicated lane. Sort of like the one Homer used when he was a Stonecutter.
How about Grand Frank Railroad?
Ah, it's late.
Sasha would have trouble starting on most top 25 NCAA teams. The Spurs can pull guys like Tony Parker, Ginobilli, Udrih... and the Lakers end up with Sasha.
Brian Cook- why did they renew his contract for 07? He's like a 10th man stiff. He can shoot, but cant do much else. One of the most unathletic players in the NBA.
I cant think of the last Laker draft pick to do be decent. Maybe Kareem Rush? He's doing alright for the bobcats.
Lakers need Jerry West back. Or they need to buy another superstar.
I have a feeling though that Kobe Bryant is having more fun now than when they were winning. The guy already has rings. Now he just wants to own his own team, which he pretty much more or less does.
Phil's back to collect a pay check.
Hmmm....my how the lakers have fallen.
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