Amen, Jon.

I thought Choi was our best defensive player at 1b last year. Does anyone think that Phillips or Olmedo were better?

Can you please fedex this to Dodger HQ ASAP.

2 - I think the argument has moved past the Choi vs. Phillips/Saenz issue. Few people expect Phillips or Saenz to be the starting first baseman next year. But many want to see someone better than Choi. The debate now centers more around, given the realities that surround the Dodgers, is it worth trying to get someone better than Choi for 2006?

2 - the conversation at this point should be whether or not the Dodgers will even field a 25-man roster on April 3. No manager, and half the front office staff fired in a childish rampage by Frank McCourt that's seen him turn Dodger Stadium into a giant -- or, if you take Ned Colletti as an omen, a Giant -- turnstyle.

oops, 5 was in reference to 4.

Could Hee Seop Choi's jib been cut better? It might have been. Could Hee Seop Choi been better utilized by me in game situations to give him a chance to succeed? Possibly. Could Hee Seop Choi have faced someone with different arm angles? I don't know as I've stopped trying to figure out who is asking or answering the questions.

and that's not to mention the fact that those numbers against LHP are only 81 at-bats over THREE YEARS.

I think that Kent should move to first. Furcal or Soriano in the middle with Robles/Izturis and Nomar at 3rd. Giles in the outfield.

Kent and Nomar are stop gaps until the minor leaguers are ready.

Let Weaver go, and throw Odalis in the Soriano deal. Get Ted Lilly.

I make it sound so easy

[9] would you mind if we talk about soriano's defense?

or the fact that he hit .224/.265/.374 away from arlington last year?

8 -- For the sake of clarity, those are Choi's 2005 numbers in the 35 some odd plate appearances from 2005.

my bad, you guys are right. let's move forward.

No, it's not worth going after another first baseman.

Gurnick seems to agree that the Dodgers should not pursue another first baseman. This is from his Q and A at dodgers.com.

http://tinyurl.com/aa4ys

Re: #9

I hope the Dodgers don't land Soriano. Talk about the most overrated player in the bigs. with Soriano's defense, he would be better suited at first with Kent at 2B. But if Soriano did not move positions for the Yankees or Rangers, he won't do it for LA.

13 - That's the article that kicked off the roughly 200-comment discussion on Choi yesterday.

But while Gurnick questions the value of a big-salaried acquisition, I didn't take his article as an endorsement of Choi at all. He discusses a "cheaper short-term band-aid solution," but doesn't mention Choi by name. I take from that that he wants a lower-tier solution, like J.T. Snow (though perhaps not him precisely).

Great post, Jon. But would it be possible to go back and label some of the non-obvious players with a name, e.g. "...steroid boy. (Giambi)" Well, I'm assuming Steve meant Giambi. I just found myself going, "LeCroy = Twins...umm...Morneau! NL champs...Astros...Lamb! Erm, Berkman? Lamb?" It'd just be kinda cool for those of us that are only 3/4 of the way to fluent with our MLB first basemen!

[11] oh, you're right. well, that's still an improvement over his first two seasons vs. lefties, even though he sees LHP only during blue moons and eclipses.

First, Jon, I didn't know that you doubled as Stuart Smalley!

If the Dodgers really need power at first, they are unlikely to get it from Choi. But they SHOULDN'T need it, since they SHOULD be able to get it elsewhere. It seems to me that a hitter as patient as Choi might work well in the #2 spot, behind a good leadoff man, as Gilliam did the job behind Wills.

Steroid Boy was Palmeiro. Giambi was very good against LHP last year, as were Sean Casey and the Johnson boys (Dan and Nick).

16 - I actually thought part of the fun was the guessing game. The actual names aren't that important. But if anyone wants to, feel free ...

18 - My computer screen is actually a mirror.

The Blue Jays might have made a pretty big offer to Giles.

http://tinyurl.com/bcu2u

I don't think Colletti will be able to see beyond the media perception of Choi as being bad. Despite him supposedly being a shrewd judge of talent by just looking at a player walk by him.

The Los Angeles media has the mindset that Choi is not good. JT Snow is good. That is that. Evidence is not needed. Hee Seop Choi struck out three times against Jason Schmidt on Opening Day 2005. That's all the evidence that is needed.

[18] well, there's no reason to think choi is incapable of hitting around 25-30 homers in a season if he got 500+ at-bats.

does that not count as "power at first"?

[22] wow, 5 years, $55 million?!

toronto can have him.

Did J.P. Riccardi get his first look at money and go crazy?

Recently - I lost track of where - there was an article that suggested that the improving value of the Canadian dollar might be leading to these big Toronto contract offers. Anyone see that?

22 - 5/55... I'll bet Giles is learning the Canadian National Anthem right now...

Are the J's nuts? 5 years is too long. They can have him. My Colletti Respect-O-Meter will go up signicantly if he stays away from this crack party.

Anyone want to analyze this?

http://tinyurl.com/bhxg9

I think it was 6-4-2.

[27] i believe that was rob's theory over at 6-4-2: http://tinyurl.com/cfxz8

29 Off the top of my head it seems to be pretty directly correlated with line drive percentage.

24 Yes, it's possible that Choi could do that well playing on a daily basis--it would be nice to find out! But one of the major criticisms of him is his patience at the plate, and I was thinking that batting him second might put that to advantage.

I've always liked Hee Seop Choi. I enjoyed watching him play as a Cub, and I was disappointed that Dusty Baker didn't give him more playing time before he was injured (he suffered a fairly serious concussion in a collision with Kerry Wood while fielding an infield popup at Wrigley Field in a game against the Yankees). And I remember being very disappointed when he was traded to the Marlins. Of course, considering that the Cubs got Derrek Lee in that trade (IIRC, it was a straight-up trade), I guess I was wrong then, but I still hope that Choi has a good career.

[29] the numbers that pop out at me:

8th in line drive%
50th in batting average on balls in play.

that looks like choi had a lot of "loud outs". and that correlates with what i remember from last season; he had a lot of hard hit balls, which happened to be right at fielders. hopefully his luck evens out some next year.

I think the Blue Jays have more money to spend now because Rogers has gotten all the finances straightened regarding the team. In particular, Rogers (the company) bought SkyDome and that purchase is complete now and that gives them a bit more to spend.

Something like that.

36 - Acting like a true drunken sailor the Blue Jays are. At least they are trying to compete with NY and Boston.

Word is that the Angels a renewing their interest in Paul K. For the life of me I cannot understand the Angles' interest in the guy. They have a bonafide A+ prospect at 1B (Kotchman). Meanwhile, Konerko epitomizes every quality of an overpriced FA that we seen over the past 25+ years. I respect Scioscia as much as anyone, but the rest of the organization is not very impressive. Vlad fell into their lap and the rest of their behavior over the past 2 years under this new owner can best be described as Yankee mimicry. Unfortunately for the Angels (and fortunately for the rest of MLB) they do not have the ongoing revenue stream to maintain this kind of foolishness.

I for one can never have enough Choi:)

Steve you were killing me last night. A great closing arguement.

Can the gang of four ignore the clamors of the populace and put Choi in the drivers seat? I think not, but whoever is smart enough to take Choi off our hands will be amply rewarded. It is possible that we could get lucky and have the following scenario:
They realize Choi has value in a platoon situation and sign someone like E Perez or trade for C Wilson or keep Saenz to handle the left handed pitching. I for one think Choi will improve against LHP but never to the point that he would hit LHP better then an excellent right handed platoon partner of which the league is littered with.

It cannot be lost on the gang of four that we had decent production from 1st base last year using the platoon method if you only look at the Choi/Saenz numbers. Given that Colletti has passed on Thome and Delgado and that were not looking at Konerko he should be getting kudo's instead of disdain. Last year he used the exact same platoon method with Snow and Niekro. His comment that we would need to improve at the corners was made before he met for hours with the rest of the gang and maybe did not realize how good our 1st base production actually was. He hasn't rushed into hiring a manager and even though the names are uninspiring who cares. As long as the manager and the GM are on the same page I don't care who the manager is. Really, I don't care. Unless it is Dallas Green then I'll never post another pro-colletti comment.

34 "But one of the major criticisms of him is his patience at the plate..."

You mean, like, he had too much?

Even his detractors acknowledge Choi has a good eye for balls and strikes. The 'impatience' he occasionally showed was the result of his coaches and manager telling him he needed to swing more. That misguided coaching got him off his game at times last year and in '04. And Tracy did everything he could to destroy Choi's confidence and reputation.

Maybe if Choi borrowed one of Bobby Valentine's disguises, he could get a fair shot this spring. One thing yesterday's debate reiterated was that the man has become a lightening rod for some fans. To justify their contempt for Choi, those fans just make stuff up.

39 Choi hit lefties better than righties, when he was in the minors. Is there any reason that can't be repeated in the majors? Are minor league lefties worse than the righties, in comparison to the majors?

Or how about the manager who had to stomach this dog's breakfast against LHP last year from his first baseman?

.232 .298 .316 .614

So I cheated and looked this one up. This impressive line was obviously good enough to earn him the 2nd most at bats against lefty pitching among firstbasemen last year.

Of course, it's his football approach to the game that allows him such success.

After all the talk about Choi that's taken place on this site, much of it going in circles, I wouldn't have thought it possible to come up with an interesting post about him anymore. Thanks for pulling it off Jon -- and Steve.

Choi hit lefties better than righties, when he was in the minors. Is there any reason that can't be repeated in the majors?

Well, depends what you mean. Is only getting one at-bat per week against lefties a "reason"? : )

Has there ever actually been a lefty who, over the course of significant major league career, hit better against lefties than they did against righties?

is the potential giles contract so ludicrous??

We gave JD Drew the same deal.

Since 2000 drew has played in 71 percent of possible games to be played 696/972

yeah giles is 4 years older but he has played in 95% of possible games played 920/972 and has out produced JD Drew.

not saying do it. But can understand why they are at least asking for it.

45 - I just think given his age and then to play on AT will make his decline even more rapid... it won't be too bad if it is more heavily front-loaded.

I think there's a big difference in the 5 year windows representing ages 29-33 (Drew), and 35-39 (Giles).

To bad Yhancy faded so badly in the 2nd half. If he had stayed solid he would be worth a bundle right now. The Blue Jays are paying BJ Ryan and his 70 innings twice as much as the whole outstanding White Sox bullpen. The madness of baseball will drive you crazy.

I don't mind the Giles contract. The yearly rate is fine and the extra two years don't scare me as much in the AL as the NL. Toronto really needed to upgrade in RF and they got the best possible player they could. For at least 3 years they will get their money's worth.

They are 5 years apart, and their age at start of contract are 6 years apart.

Giles will be 35 in January; Drew just turned 30 last week (and of course LA got Drew's age 29 year).

38 - for my part, I'm hoping they're gaming the market in two ways:

1) Making more expensive for other clubs to acquire free agents (though they have no actual desire to sign Konerko). This makes the value of their prospects even greater. Of course, this theory only works if you believe that Bill Stoneman can spell the word "trade".

2) Playing the Red Sox, who appear intent on trading Manny Ramirez, so they'll accept less for him, since they know the Angels will be acquiring one big slugger. This also explains the noise about Carlos Delgado.

The only 1st basemen that I wouldnt mind acquiring if we let Choi go would be Nick Johnson. Would the Nationals be willing to part with him? Maybe Bradley, Loney for Nick Johnson, Brad Wilkerson?

If Giles goes to the Blue Jays, then at least there's a better liklihood we keep Milton Bradley. And sign Raffy Furcal.

I'll be very surprised if the Dodgers dont wind up with either Furcal or Giles. There's just not much else out there to spend money on.

Well, what I wonder is: Would it be worse for the Dodgers to give Giles an overly long, expensive contract, or to do whatever it is they are going to do if/when they find Giles unavailable?

Being stupid with Giles may be smart if it prevents them from being even more stupid with someone else.

48 - Good point on being in the AL though... can always DH if his skills drop off significantly. BTW: who is the Blue Jays DH? Shea Hillenbrand?

I assume you are all aware of the 2:00 Colletti Q & A at the Dodgers mlb.com site? http://tinyurl.com/by5qq

If this has already be discussed, I apologize in advance.

what the hell dodgers, match 5/55. there is no one else to spend money on.

52 - Being stupid with Giles may be smart if it prevents them from being even more stupid with someone else.

Has it really come down to this? If so, then the Dodgers are doomed... I'm hoping the "4 Headed Monster" is better than that.

in 4 years from now, 11 mil might be pretty average for a salary with inflation and general increase in baseball salaries.

57
That's probably what they said about Dreifort.

52, 56 - Word. If signing Giles means not trading one of our prospects and not signing Konerko, then unfortunately, I say yes.

55 - Frontload it and it's not so bad... If Giles would go for that. 13/12/11/10/9 per

57. I disagree. The baseball market started to correct itself after the A-Rod, Jeter, and Giambi deals. You wont see any big name stars getting 20mils a year. Thus, I dont think a 39yr old DH will be worth 11mils either.

I wouldnt match Giles offer. If were investing 5 yrs in player, I'd rather be it no one. But if I had to choose either Giles/Burnett/Furcal, I'd pick Furcal.

I disagree. The baseball market started to correct itself after the A-Rod, Jeter, and Giambi deals. You wont see any big name stars getting 20mils a year. Thus, I dont think a 39yr old DH will be worth 11mils either.

but you are seeing decent relivers getting 5-10 mil a year...

if there were a star like Arod on the market this year, he would probably get a huge deal as well.

The biggest name is Konerko, and hes rumored to be getting like 15 mil a year, which is about overpaying by about 5 mil.

47
I'd have no problem betting on Giles playing in more games over the life of his contract then Drew will. The man had 3 surgeries at the end of the year. He has a chronic arthritic shoulder. He has a chronic problem with his knee. His body is scary old for a 29 year old man who hasn't played that many games. This man will have problems throughout his career staying in a lineup.

55
Maybe 44/4 will entice him enough to stay home. Toronto is a long way from the West coast and it is not like Toronto is going to compete against Boston and the Yankee's with BJ getting 15% of the budget. 11 mill per year is certainly doable but then I'm a huge Giles fan.

I came up with a great idea for Giles' contract.

1. 5 years, $55 million
2. Giles could opt out after 2 years

That way, if Giles can get more money elsewhere after two years, he can leave. But if he gets hurt or isn't worth more than $11 million/per, the Dodgers are stuck with him.

60
Why would you pick an average offensive SS who just had his career year in his walk year?

The salaries had corrected but doesn't it seem obvious that in 2005 you are seeing them trending back up now that more teams have more money to spend?

I say Colletti's final offer to Giles should be 3 years $33 million. If he wants more years, let him move to Toronto, far from his beloved San Diego. If he signs with the Dodgers for 3 years and is still producing at > or = $11 million/year level, he can resign. If not, well, then he shouldn't be getting a 5 year contract anyway.

56 - Has it really come down to this? If so, then the Dodgers are doomed... I'm hoping the "4 Headed Monster" is better than that.

Me, too. I'm not saying they WILL do something really stupid, just that I can imagine worse moves than overpaying for Giles. If they don't get Giles, they're going to do SOMETHING else, and who the heck knows what that will be. Could be good, could be awful.

But you're right. If it really has come down to hoping for the lesser of the stupid moves, the Dodgers are doomed.

Choi may be the least of our problems, but he's still a problem. It's unfair to say that Hee Seop is a decent 1b just by mentioning his splits against LHP. Here's his splits against RHP:

.258 .335 .460 .796

Here are the splits from some selected free agents:

.303 .402 .493 .895
.290 .373 .522 .895
.250 .323 .477 .800
.276 .339 .445 .785

In contrast, here are the RHP splits from some 1B in the NL.

.336 .411 .658 1.069
.340 .432 .633 1.065
.326 .431 .626 1.057
.353 .480 .630 1.110
.324 .370 .582 .952

(My first reaction to seeing those: "Holy crap, we have to face those guys?")

It's pretty easy to say that Choi isn't a big hole, assuming he plays every day. Compared to the crop of free agents, Choi is probably worth a shot for the everyday job, and then we'll see what we can do at the break next year, but you look at the numbers from other NL teams, and damn, it's easy to see why the Dodgers are considered underachievers.

67
In fairness, I'm guessing most of Choi's PH appearances were against RHPs, and even the staunchest Choi supporter would have to agree that Hee has been a horrible pinch-hitter. If my guess is correct, his RHP splits (as the starting first baseman) would be much better.

look, i'd LIKE to have giles for a few years, but if we don't get him, i'm not going to lose sleep. we don't absolutely need giles to be successful.

if we don't have giles, maybe we keep bradley, sign nomar, and perhaps trade for a pitcher.

here's a random question: whatever happened to the royals' zack greinke? why was he so bad last year?

67 - That's the thing. In a better world, you'd do better than Choi. In a better world, Brad Penny would be our No. 5 starter, not out No. 1. But meanwhile, we're sitting here hoping that the 30 good days we got from Willy Aybar and Jose Cruz, Jr. aren't total flukes. The Choi argument is just about there being better places to spend the money,

69 He doesn't strike anyone out and he's an extreme fly ball pitcher. My fantasy team learned that lesson well.

Choi was 8 for 42 as a pinch hitters with 17 Ks and 3 BBs. 2 doubles and a homer. The homer came off of Washington's Hector Carrasco, a righty.

70 Yeah, as I mentioned, give him the job for the first half. If he gets it done, great. I really hope he does. Mostly I hope he learns to lay off the high-and-tight fastball.

70

Don't go all Candide on us, Jon.

73 - Unfortunately, for many local columnists, Choi is a high-and-tight fastball.

74 - Didn't we discuss cultivating our gardens just a week or so ago?

I agree with 39 and 67. 67 is yet another good example of how people are so blinded by their own dumb, zombie arguments that they forget there are good arguments to be made.

[71] but he's got the stuff to strike people out. i watched him pitch once during his rookie yaer, and he was making people look silly with a 95MPH fastball and a 65MPH curve. there's gotta be something else to it. something mental or mechanical, maybe?

Don't know if this observation has been made before on this board, but I just noticed that the 2005 Dodger team had only one player with 500+ ABs, and only two players with 400+ ABs. My informal review of other teams showed that they had from 4-9 players with at least 400 ABs.

Two players with 400+ seems very low, and must be close to a record.

Choi just doesn't look like a ballplayer.

Now, Enos Cabell, there was a ballplayer.

2005 Injury
Starting Team:
1st - Choi - very quickly goes into a platoon and then just as quickly becomes forgotten
2nd - Kent - steady
Ss - Izzy - season ending injury
3b - Valentin - basically a season ending injury
c - Philips - inability to catch or hit makes him a 1st baseman but quickly wears out welcome at every position
RF - JD - on track for his most games played in a season when wrist is broken.
CF - MB - freaky finger injury then blows out his mind and then his knee in the same weekend.
LF - Werth- broken wrist on 1st day of ST. Never recovered but got to play alot for a corner outfielder with no power. Our excellent health professionals failed to find a torn ligament in the wrist and he just had surgery and will now miss spring training instead of having the surgery in October and not missing anytime. Nothing irritates me more then baseball players having surgery in November.

I remember the 75 team as having alot of injuries but to lose every starter except for 1st/2nd/C to an injury for significant parts of the season is

[67] so now we're comparing him to the likes of pujols, derrek lee, berkman, helton, delgado... in order to say that choi sucks? those are the best players in the majors.

that's like saying that izturis isn't tejada or a-rod, therefore he sucks.

anyway, you're right. choi is not any of those guys. he's not a superstar. but those guys don't make anywhere near the league minimum. having choi be a pretty good player for a low price allows the dodgers to spend money somewhere else where talent is a little harder to find. choi is not a "problem".

Don't go all Gary DiSarcina on us Molokai. Or else the Dodgers will end up trading Jayson Werth for the next Kent Bottenfield.

Werth's wrist surgery sounds unusual so it likely took him a while to find someone who could offer him a different treatment.

Besides, the Dodgers HMO is always backed up.

67 When you start running around comparing yourself to other teams you run the risk of clouding your judgement. Should other teams go crazy when comparing their own 2B to Kent? The point is to have a solid team, not just insisting on being excellent at certain positions.

Out of curiosity, who are the free agents you are listing? I'm too lazy to look them up.

Here is the latest from my favorite scout at baseball HQ on our Dodgers in the AFL:
11. Andy LaRoche (3B, LAD): Entering the season as one of the minors' top HR hitters, he failed to hit one in the AFL. He did hit for BA (.352) and got on base at a decent clip (.394 OBP) despite poor plate discipline (0.35 Eye). His defensive actions at 3B looked stiff, so has work to do.

19. James Loney (1B, LAD): Shows a smooth stroke with plate discipline (0.65 Eye), but his hits have too much topspin to produce over-the-fence power. He hit .321/.406/.452, driving balls up the right-center gap and down the line. His defense at 1B is Gold Glove-caliber.

TOP PERFORMANCES

Matt Kemp (OF, LAD): He proved to be one of the top clutch hitters in the league, hitting .383/.414/.606 with three HR. His plate discipline (0.36 Eye) needs to improve, getting hammered by breaking pitches away. He has a solid average arm strength and sufficient range in RF.

According to Blue Jays' fans, J.P. Ricciardi has been on MLB radio today, and he said that it is untrue that he has offered Giles a five year contract, and that if there was any talk about a five year deal for Giles, the Jays would not be anywhere near it.

Yet more evidence that baseball writers just make crap up in the off-season, for something to write about.

Brett Tomko's agent has said he's discussing 1 year deals with 2 clubs and others have shown interest. With the crazy contracts waiting to be handed out, getting Tomko for cheap seems like it could a good idea. His stats are only slightly worse than Weaver's, and he would come at a fraction of the cost. However, his road/home split isn't too pretty for 2005, but is the exact opposite of 2004, so I have no idea what significance that has. At the right price, I'd be interested

Furcal will meet with Colletti tonight, Stark reports. Cubs and Braves are the competition

Since Brett Tomko usually pitches well only against the Dodgers, I would steer clear of him.

And he has sometimes been on my list, although I waver on his inclusion.

I'd like to propose a nice cheap alternative in case we can't get Giles.

Chad Tracy of the D'Backs - he's only 25
Last year .308 .359 .553 .911

They have a number of young guys coming up and might be willing to listen to one of our relievers and a prospect.

Glad to hear that Colletti is meeting with Furcal tonight. I assume he's interviewing him for manager.

86
I've always wondered how a front office benefits by leaking contract negotiations? I can understand from an agents point of view but not from a front office. Why would anyone tell Gammons or Stark or anyone who claims inside information who and for how much?

82 -- but Pujols etc. are the guys that, eventually, you would want a power hitter like Choi to compare to. No, he doesn't have to go 1.100, but .900 would be nice. In a situation where 1) Choi plays against RHP every day in a platoon with Perez/Helms/Saenz/Whoever and 2) He is 27 and should be hitting at least an improving stride into his peak years and 3) He gets at least the confidence that our unlamented former manager gave to future All-Stars like Mike Edwards, the All Star Break would be a fair time to sit back and re-assess the situation. At this point, it is still true that Hee Seop Choi, if he were "Player X," would not come nearly under the vilification that he does now. However, I am just as uninterested in a possible future scenario where the Choi Brigade ends up resorting to Darin Erstad-like arguments about intangibles and pinch hitting to continue to justify a barely .800 OPS. I think it is proper to want more out of Hee Seop Choi than we are getting, and in fact, I think it should be expected.

Tim Kurkjian was just on ESPNews, talking Hot Stove. Funny discussion about Torre's ruminations about moving Jeter or A-Rod to CF. Brian Kenny thought it might work: Jeter to CF, A-Rod back to SS, then sign Wes Helms or Randa. Kurjian went apoplectic about the lunacy of moving DEREK JETER anywhere. He did reason that if a guy can play SS, you should keep him there, but refused Kenny's logic that the question is whether they can find a player who is a better 3bman than Bubba Crosby is a CFer. Doesn't matter, it's not going to happen.

TK also guessed that Giles would end up a Dodger. Didn't mention any offer from Toronto - just that they were in the running. Said that there's no way Giles goes to NYY.

83 - Bob....what is Boomer Wells IS the next Kent Bottenfield??

I've come to the following conclusion about Fucal: I wouldn't mind him. But only under certain circumstances. We must trade Izturis, and get another power hitter. Furcal will be had for $9-10 mil a year, minus Izturis' salary that's roughly what we would give Nomar ($6-7 mil). We get a leadoff hitter to make the press and majority of fans happy, and one that can walk 60 times with moderate power and good defense. Are there wiser ways to spend the money? Probably, but I don't think I'd mind this as much as Pierre. Plus, while I like Guzman at short, I just don't think it will happen, and I am not much of a fan of Hu

If we traded Izzy and Bradley, then we would have $21 mil to spend. Just enough to get Giles, Furcal, a lefty masher, and a catcher. We could then hope to bring in a cheap pitcher with Izzy, Bradley, Robles, prospects, etc, maybe let McCourt boost the payroll just enough to sign someone like Tomko or Johnson

With the Colletti chat coming up in under 30 min, I thought I'd take the time to press for some possible questions anyone else attending might ask good ol' Ned. I'm sure one of you can put together a well informed question about or why he considers first base a hole.

I will be asking about Fregosi's losing record as manager and rationale behind giving him a last chance.

94 But who would take Izzy before he comes back from his injury? I like Izzy, and would like to believe that his drop-off last year was injury-related, but I think I know better. I also think we're stuck with him unless and until he returns healthy, and starts to hit like April-May 2005, not like the rest of his career.

94I kind of agree with your reasoning on Furcal and I think Izzy could bring back something very usefull. I just don't think we will be outbidding the Cubs and that is fine with me. I would be bumbed if Giles goes elsewhere and we weren't in the hunt.

I have no desire to spend money on Tomko or Johnson.

Given the cost of pitching free agents doesn't it seem silly not to sign Hochevar since he should only be about a year away from helping the Major League team.

96
The same baseball people who give large contracts to Guzman and Perez. Baseball is loaded with them, throw in a glitzy gold glove and a lead off hitter and they will get dizzy with Izzy love.

96
GoBears - Do I understand correctly that you're a professor?

Speaking of trading Bradley...wrap your heads around this hot stove rumor:

Bradley for Todd Walker.

Uh...what?

http://tinyurl.com/95c4n

The best part are the comments from Cubs fans who feel like they're not getting enough in this proposed deal.

It's a little known fact that Go Bears is actually Joe Ayoob.

I don't see a lot of Choi "villification" on this board, just fatigue with Choi's backers and their hypersensitivity to opposing views.

Interesting comment on the LAD medical staff regarding Werth. Also found it weird that Gagne was cleared to pitch last spring even when it was evident that his knee wasn't healed. He was hbbling on the mound after a few pitches.

Couldn't agree more with the line that LAD should give Giles $55 million over five years while allowing him to opt out after two. Won't be enough, though. He has a proven track record for durability, so he should command $77 million.

82 - Comment 67 didn't say "Choi sucks." In fact, I sort of felt he went out of his way to avoid saying that. "It's pretty easy to say that Choi isn't a big hole, assuming he plays every day," Mark wrote.

94 Why would we want to get a catcher?

102 BAAAAAAAAA-HAHAHAHAHAHA. Unintentional comedy is the best kind.

99 Yes. At UCLA. A Golden Bear employed by baby bears. But that's as far as I'll peek out from under my pseudonym for now, for reasons of self-preservation.

101 Ouch. Best thing I can say about Ayoob is that his name is "Boo-ya" backwards. But so is his highlight reel.

Hey Vishal, "GO!"

Re: 99

I think DT is the only baseball site where there's been a reasonably serious discussion about postmodernism. =)

WWSH

Is Colletti allowed to trade Izturis? I would think Izturis would rank pretty high on the Dodgers' Heart and Soul list.

Someone should ask Colletti about Choi in this online chat thing. I don't think I have time to hang around dodgers.com to get in a question.

WWSH

Re: 107

And doing it for DUI Furcal would also be a serious PR problem.

WWSH

I put very little stock in Willy Aybar's strong performance in September, but is it just me or does Aybar get underestimated by the LAD and Dodgers observers?

He seems to create a whole lot less buzz than the other LAD prospects.

Sure, his low HR totals with Vegas make it harder to project him at 3B.

For me, he's got a shot to be a pretty good starter at 3B.

I love the durability he's shown and a broad skill set. Maybe the big bonus he got in Jan 2000 followed by a weak season in 2002 caused disappointment,, but he's come back pretty nicely the last three years. He's only 22. Seems to me, many franchises would love to have such a prospect.

105
Thanks for the peek. I'm headed in that direction myself.

108 - I had the same thought, but I doubt we'd get a straight answer about Choi from Colletti in this forum.

109 - DUIs don't bother the local media - they loved Mota despite his.

Re: 110

I also like Aybar, but I'd still like to give Nomah a one-year contract for insurance. I don't want to go into the season counting on both Robles and Aybar to man the left side of the infield. I don't like A. Perez at 3B, and I'd rather him work in a semi-platoon with Choi and Kent--Choi starts against righties, against lefties, Kent moves to 1B and Perez mans 2B.

WWSH

104 Because I doubt Colletti will pay Phillips. Assuming he doesn't, do you want Eric Langill or Edwin Bellorin backing up Navarro?

Re: 112

I actually don't think Mota was really part of the heart-and-soul argument--that all centered around LoDuca. Mota of course had all the ridicule surrounding his run-ins with Piazza in two STs. I don't think he was really "loved" by the media for any character reasons--he was just seen as a dominant setup man, and the DUI conviction wasn't held against him. But I don't think he was ever considered a true character guy.

WWSH

Trading Izturis would only be good for the deleterious health effects on Plaschke, Krikorian, and Keisser.

113 - If Nomar is signed, the feeling is that he'll get the majority of starts at short (backed up by Robles), with either Aybar, Perez, or a Randa/Mueller FA at 3rd, until Izzy is back and healthy. At that point, 3B is Nomar's assuming he's healthy. I like the depth/versatility that Perez and Aybar provide at the 3 infield positions. I'm not sure they could afford to keep both on the roster though - they seem redundant.

Kent at 1st in a pseudo-platoon with Choi works, but I'd also like to see Craig Wilson brought in to be a RH-1B and back up catcher.

I think we need to resign ourselves to the reality M. Bradley will be traded at a discount. It's impossible to bring back both he and Kent and his value is low around the league because of continued behavior issues.

I hope we can spend some cash because both the D'backs and Pads are taking a step or two back.

Q: Welcome to the Dodger family. What are your plans to bring in power hitter?

A: No quesiton, we need to improve the offense. Power hitters are becoming tougher and tougher to come by. There have been some successful teams without a power hitter, including Dodger clubs. That said, we're looking to bolster the middle of the lineup with a proven hitter and if it's a power hitter, so much the better.

He'd put Furcal in the middle of the line up?

115 - Agreed. My point is that DUIs didn't disqualify Mota from being valued by the mainstream. Which, unfortunately, says a lot about attitudes concerning drunk driving.

I did put in 16 questions and the odds are that he'll answer the easy softball questions I lobbed when I ran out of things to ask.

115 - I'd say he was certainly part of the "heart and soul" argument, but by association. That bullpen was considered to be at the very core of the success of that team. Trading Mota struck a major blow to the "heart and soul" of the team.

Q: What are your plans with the farm system?

A:In an ideal situation, you keep the farm system intact. Any player that we would trade from the farm system, we would only do so if we were certain that the player we were acquiring is going to make an immediate and very strong contribution to the current club. I'll depend greatly on our player development people and scouts in determining which prospects we would consider moving, always keeping in mind that the farm system is the lifeblood to an organization many times.

Hopefully that mean Logan White's consent will be needed to trade prospects

121 - Just out of curiosity, why did you give him easy softball questions to answer? Why not quit when you're ahead?

I did post this one for the heck of it:

The Dodgers were a top-10 team in the majors in production at first base last season, thanks mainly to Choi and Saenz (and despite Phillips). Are you considering the status quo at 1B for 2006, so that you might focus resources on improving other areas?

He continues to say that he is unaware of McCourt's intentions to slash payroll. Then he adds in a comment about it's not the price of the player, but who the player is that is important

Since we could always use a good laugh here is the most ridiculous rumor I have ever heard, of course it comes courtesy of the Dodgers board...

Manny Ramirez, David Wells, and Keith Foulke for Jeff Kent, JD Drew, and Eric Gagne. These people claim NESN reported this, my how bad I feel for anyone who uses that board as their source for information.

Re: 120

I agree that the DUI issue is strangely ignored by the media. I certainly think chronic DUI convictions is far more serious than either steroid use or gambling.

One good example of this was the ESPN's crew treatment of Furcal's problems in ST last season. Does anyone else remember the absurd softballs that were tossed to him and the Braves org. over the issue when we played them in ST?

WWSH

128 - I did a post on Furcal way back when.

https://dodgerthoughts.baseballtoaster.com/archives/16553.html

124
Good point, easy questions but still ones I wanted answers to like
"Will D Young be moved to the outfield or does the Dodger braintrust still feel he can play 2nd base"

We should have some conversations about the "greenie" ban. Some players are saying that it will have a huge effect on the game.

82 What I was trying to get at is that the NL has very, very high expectations of the production from your first baseman. Choi, to date, doesn't match up with those expectations. I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for a half-season full-time gig. If he has a breakout 3 months, then we will all be happy when we're gloating to Jim Tracy. If Choi continues to underperform, then we need to go get help via trade, whatever.

As far as your price/performance argument goes, you mention "having choi be a pretty good player for a low price allows the dodgers to spend money somewhere else where talent is a little harder to find." See, I can excuse the "pretty good" player coming off the bench. Choi, however, needs to step it up in a big way if we want to be competitive at all. He doesn't have to be Pujols, but he needs to at least be Klesko or Berkman if you want to see the Dodgers start winning games.

I just put in a question about whether or not Guzman will stay at SS.

WWSH

You value Klesko and Berkman the same? I think Choi can become Klesko, I harbor no illusions that he can ever become Berkman.

As seems to always be the case with these things, the chat seems to be giving us very little actual info. Of course, with so little to go on, I think we're all anxiously grasping at straws to try to figure out what Colletti will do.

WWSH

I just asked him a question about the managerial search process... doubt he'll ask it but what the heck. Did anyone ask about Brian Giles?

So far, it seems that the chat with Camille John...er, Ned Colletti is full of great, informative responses.

Although that's about all I'd expect from a chat of this nature on MLB.com.

Right after I write that post, Colletti actually says something of substance:

What bullpen help will be provided to solidify the retuning pen? And what will you do to bolster the rotation?

laguest:
5:25 pm We are in the market for a left-handed reliever or two and I've been talking with Eric Gagne, who assures me that he's doing fine and should return to full strength. I think our bullpen from the right side is as good as any team's.

laguest:
5:26 pm I am looking to add a starting pitcher, but I'm not sure if it'll be via trade or free agency. The season is a test of all your players, particularly your pitchers and I believe that for a team to be successfull, you not only need five solid starting pitchers, but another pitcher or two at Triple-A who you can call on in the case of injury or lack of productivity.

Or "doubt he'll answer it" - he certainly won't ask it! I liked his response about bolstering the bullpen and the starting staff... sounds reasonable.

134 No, I don't value Klesko and Berkman as the same player, clearly Berkman is superior. At the same time, I don't value Berkman and Pujols as the same player, clearly Pujols is superior.

131

"joe morgan" at yardwork has recently posted regarding greenies. it's a pretty good post.

He said that he is looking for left handed relief help but feels were set from the right side. Evidently he's not a big of Kuo's chances on staying healthy.

Chat is already over and boy was that pointless.

Twelve questions asked, three by "mrgoodbar." Way to spread the wealth.

The last question was truly pointless--I think anyone could have predicted Colletti's non-answer.

WWSH

Looks like the lefty reliever comment is the best new information.I'd guess he'll just resign Wunsch and have him compete with Kuo (better than signing Mike Myers, who in this bizarro world will cost a draft pick)

Re: 145

Will Wunsch be ready by ST? Isn't his injury the same as Schilling's? And look at how long it took him to come back.

It's right to sign another lefty, though. I don't think we should count on Kuo staying healthy, although it'll certainly be nice.

WWSH

I have it on good(bar) authority that "mrgoodbar" is an alias for Drew McCourt.

141
Thanks, that was funny.

Not sure about Wunsch's injury. With Kuo's health and lack of experience, a backup option at LOOGY could be wise. Or maybe Colletti realizes that Kuo simply isn't a LOOGY, and he wants a veteran one to compliment Kuo and the bullpen. The Rule 5 (which wouldn't help the experience problem) and minr league contracts go a long way to solving any LOOGY problems

i wouldnt take too much away from this chat, i remember depo's chat earlier in the year, it didnt seem to say anything meaningfull

i really dont care what flanders does when it comes to lefthanded relief, as long as he doesnt spend a lot of money, talent, or draft picks to do it. The angels havent had a left handed reliever it a couple years. Kuo's left elbow should stay together long enough for wunsch to get healthy. Anyway, I think we should be more worried about Gagne's elbow than Kuo's. Im not sure how worried we should be about Kuo, sure he had two TJ's, but so did Dreifort, and his elbow held up after the second surgury, it was the rest of his body that fell apart. This is probably a good question for Will Carroll.

I don't think we've discussed today's big FA signing. For those of you who missed it, Abraham Nunez to the Phillies for $3.35 mil over 2 years with an option. Maybe not as bad as Neifi's deal, but that's still a lot of money to someone whose career year was a contract year, with an impressive .704 OPS.

Does the fact that Flanders chose not to respond to any Choi-centric queries bode poorly for the Big Heesy?

Rumors out of Chicago have Milton Bradley headed Cubward in exchange for Todd Walker and (perhaps) Corey Patterson. The alleged deal hinges on the Cubs inking Rafael Furcal.

Apologies if this has already been posted, and apologies for posting such rubbish. Just thought it was an interesting gauge of Bradley's possible worth. (Assuming the Dodgers aren't keeping him.)

153 - There were so many player questions he didn't respond to, I don't think that, in and of itself, is meaningful.

Flanders probably asked not to get any questions he would have to give definitive answers to, which means no choi questions.

152 - But he will outproduce David Bell for significantly less $$. Any move that puts David Bell on the bench (and slides Tomas Perez a little farther down it...) is a good move by me.

I am liking Stand Pat more and more with every deal he makes, now if only he can trade Padilla and Abreu for a young C and some arms...

155. Colletti, like Depo and anyother GM, isnt going to answer any difficult questions. The difficult questions are also the most important ones. It's like when politicians have "town hall" appearances, but the questions are all pre-approved.

Happy 78th Mr. Scully, hope you stay around for awhile as I a live close enough to LA finally to get to hear him call games.

153. If anything, its probably good, he cant say anything good about Choi without turning Plascke/Simers against him.

157. How about Abreu for Navarro, Werth, and Aybar? Maybe throw in Sanchez for a couple million in 2007/2008.

153 "The Big Heesy." Excellent work!

154 Oh geez, please no! Corey Patterson is Milton Bradley without the talent. And if we take Todd Walker, that would likely mean Kent to 1b and another lost season for Hee Sits Choi.

160 I'm tellin' ya: Gagne for Abreu. Helps both teams, and ticks of Plaschke just as a bonus.

If we get Walker, I'd guess something is planned other than playing him and Kent at 1B and 2B. Send him to Minnesota for pitching...

What are the thoughts on Acta? Just the token minority interview, or a legitimate candidate? Dodgers.com's DR native (he's one of the few reliable guys there) had positive thoughts on him:

http://www.forums.mlb.com/ml-dodgers/messages?msg=54882.43

163. what the heck is wrong with terry collins? i know he's not perfect, but come on, this managerial search reminds me of a kind tearing apart a box a cereal looking for the prize he already tossed to the side

164 His temper, but I agree he's the best choice. But as he's not a candidate it appears, might as well try to find out as much as possible aboutthe 4 guys who are candidates. At this point, I'd rather finish the interviews and have a manager by the winter meetings.

As I said yesterday or whenever it was that Acta was first brought up that I would take him as he is young haha and after reading that information I like him more. ACTA FOR MANAGER! Plus if he makes bad moves we already have a nickname in place...Acta-fool

I've been wondering if we wouldn't swap our disgruntled outfielders. Horrible plate discipline but still the skills whisper take a chance. If you look at his Pecota for 2005 you will see that even his 50% would have been > 800 OPS. Of course he was worse then his 10% projection. Still only 26 and posted a >500 slug% at the age of 23. I'm sure no one here likes him since he doesn't have any plate discipline but I just can't forget when I saw him play how the ball just rockets off his bat. He's got a body type that won't lose speed as rapidly as Milton and so he'll be able to stay in CF. Something in me still thinks he can turn the corner. Maybe it was just the left over lasagna:)

160 - I think the deal we usually work out is more along the lines of Abreu for Navarro, APerez, and basically any warm body who can throw the ball.

In light of picking up yet another CF plus two young LHPs from the ChiSox for Thome though, hopefully the Bradley to Phila rumors will finally end. You guys want Jason Michaels, right? Throw him and Ledee into the deal above..?

162
I'm with you on that one.

Gagne for Abreu?

I'd do that one, but I doubt Gillick would do it straight up.

One other thing:

Keep Milton Bradley unless you get equal value. It's ridiculous to just assume he has to go and give him away. You can sign him to a decent one-year rate. You get him back healthy in April and put him on the ballfield whether Jeff Kent likes it or not.

Within reason in an unreasonable market, I like the idea of Nomar signing to help nurture the likes of Aybar. But outside of Aybar's family and three other people, I'm probably the only who think he can be more than a utility guy.

i think aybar can be more than a utility guy, i just dont think hes going to be an all star. his AA numbers were
276/.346/.425

i expect his major league numbers to look similar to that. Those are starting numbers for a MIF, but i would like more from 3b.

The Twins could use Werth, Aybar, A Perez, and Choi. We could use Scott Baker and JC Romero. If we don't give Choi a chance I'd love for him to become the DH for the Twins. Not saying this is a trade offer just players both teams could use.

I'm an Aybar fan but as a 2nd baseman not a 3b. If we don't do anything, starting Aybar at 3b until LaRoche is ready and then moving Aybar to 2nd in 2007 is not that bad of a plan b as long as we are making up the loss of Kent somewhere else.

Re: 171

True, but if you see him as a placeholder for LaRoche this season and a possible replacement for Kent at 2B, then those numbers are fine.

WWSH

Considering Milton's injury history and emotional instability, I'd be more than happy with getting both Patterson and Walker for him. We need OF depth with so many questions surrounding Werth and Cruz, and we can move Walker for another necessary piece.

WWSH

Don't think this was posted yet.

"Rafael Furcal and his agents have quietly spent the week meeting personally with the Cubs and Braves. A meeting with Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti was scheduled for Tuesday night."

..."The Dodgers are a late entry, primarily because Colletti was hired so recently. Their shortstop, Cesar Izturis, had Tommy John surgery in September, and his prognosis is uncertain. Still, the Dodgers' expression of serious interest has surprised teams that expected them to plow more of their money into their outfield and rotation."

http://tinyurl.com/by5em

I do not believe we will come anywhere close to matching what the Cubs are offering Furcal. The Cubs are concentrating so hard on getting him.

Re: 176

I have mixed feelings on Furcal with both Guzman and Hu potentially on the way, but I'd much rather we overspend on him than overspend oan a SP in this market.

WWSH

178 -

Guzman projects at 1B or RF, not SS.

Hu is a C to C-plus prospect several years away.

Not that either situation justifies going after Furcal at those prices.

The Braves were wise not to overpay for J.D. Drew, one of their own. They appear to be taking the wise course this time as well, dropping out of the Furcal bidding as it reaches stupid money.

Let the Cubs have him.

Still not sure what to make of the report (Toronto Sun) that the Blue Jays offered Giles $55 million.

I've been making fun of the Jimmy Rollins contract for too long to be a proponent of signing Furcal. They are virtually the same player (though Furcal gets the edge defensively).

He'd be an exciting player at the top of the order, but with Robles/Izturis/Perez/Aybar on the ML roster, Furcal seems to be a waste of $10M.

Now if McCourt lets Ned get Furcal AND Giles AND a starter, I could live with that.

Still not sure what to make of the report (Toronto Sun) that the Blue Jays offered Giles $55 million.

JP has since denied that report. I think if LA goes 3/$36M, that would entice him to stay local.

178 The Braves didn't overpay for J.D. Drew since they already had Andruw Jones, Kelly Johnson, Ryan Langerhans and Jeff Francouer. Spending 11 million on an outfielder at that point is not a good idea.

I have no clue what their shortstop situation looks like. If option one is calling up Walt Weiss, then spending money on Furcal might be a good idea.

182
If option one is calling up Walt Weiss, then spending money on Furcal might be a good idea.

What, is Rafael Ramirez not available?

Thanks for the JP denial.

Good point about the Braves OF prospects, but the Braves also had severe doubts about Drew's durability and his makeup. They regarded the $55 million guarantee as lunacy. As productive as J.D. was for the Braves in 2004, Bobby Cox had doubts about him long term (so did Walt Jocketty).
Of course, Boras has said another club, believed to be Detroit, offered even more than $55 million for Drew. Boston's valuation has been reported at $42 million.

There's talk that Betemit or a prospect could replace Furcal in Atlanta, or the Braves trade for Lugo.

Re: 179

With Loney at 1B, I doubt Guzman will be moved there. He supposedly looks awful at 1B in the Dominican.

I for one would prefer Guzman to stay at SS if that's possible, a position I believe Terry Collins also has. His bat should play anywhere, and at RF, in a system thin on OF prospects, he'd certainly have great value, but if he can be a tolerable SS, I'd prefer him to stay there.

And although Hu certainly isn't the second coming, I think he's better than a "C" prospect. BA had him as the no. 12 prospect in the FSL, ahead of Chuck Tiffany at no. 17. .313/.347.430 is by no means spectacular, but it's fine for a SS with good defense in a pitcher's league. I actually think that in the big leagues he might very well have Izzy's defensive abilities and a somewhat superior bat.

WWSH

C Patterson doesn't excite me for baseball reasons. Further, I believe he's already on the arbitration ladder and will command a bloated salary.

Keep Milton Bradley. Too much talent there at a premium position to just give up.

No problem leaving Guzman at SS.

As for his projection as a 1B/RF:

If he can be an adequate Double-A SS, in time, he should be a pretty good 1B defensively, no?

Personally I'd trade him to the Red Sox for LHP Lester.

In principle, Guzman should be fine as a 1B in time, but if you have a gold glover in Loney, why not put him in RF, IF he must be moved.

I actually would be willing to keep Milton, but with McCourt's new character thing, I don't see it happening. Milton is also just such a distraction that I'd rather not deal with all the controversy. And even if we don't trade him, we still need OF depth, due to his injury history.

WWSH

I thought this quote in the article mentioned in 22 was kinda wierd...

"According to the Newark Star Ledger, Giles, who wants to stay on the West Coast, is leaning towards the Blue Jays,..."

I don't think 5/55 is as crazy as the B.J. Ryan contract. I think that many of us here agree that Giles is worth 3 years at $13mil. I like the Idea that Fannerman had in 59 of frontloading the contract to 13/12/11/10/9m per.

I also like that Tim Kurkjian predicted Giles would come to the Dodgers.

Acquiring Giles and Furcal Isn't a bad off-season. I'm a little Iffy on Furcal, but I'd much rather have him leading off than Izzy. If Furcal does decide to come here we could package Izzy and Bradley for a young (and Cheap?) 3B with Power. All we would need then is one more pitcher.

[91] i think it's fine to expect more. and if given a full-time job, choi doesn't get near .900 OPS, then i would probably be off the bandwagon and willing to try someone new. but i don't think he's gotten his fair shot yet, so i feel like the jury should still be out.