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Also ...
A Season in Savannah (Stanford Magazine)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2005) (Hardball Times)
Rick Monday (Baseball Analysts)
Baseball's Odd Couple (Baseball Prospectus)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2006) (Hardball Times)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2007) (Hardball Times)
Dodger home record: 39-30 (.565)
When Jon attended: 5-3 (.625)
When Jon didn't: 34-27 (.557)
Dodgers at home: 745-600 (.554)
Jon attended: 293-233 (.557)*
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* includes road games attended
Current Roster with Estimated 2008 Salaries
(updated March 28)
Most figures are estimates (some are wild estimates) but will be updated as information comes in. Corrections welcome.
More contract details here.
Starting Pitchers (5)
$12,300,000 Hiroki Kuroda
$10,000,000 Derek Lowe
$9,500,000 Brad Penny
$7,000,000 Esteban Loaiza
*$500,000 Chad Billingsley
Total: $39,300,000
Bullpen (6)
$2,000,000 Takashi Saito
$1,925,000 Joe Beimel
$1,125,000 Scott Proctor
*$500,000 Jonathan Broxton
$500,000 Chan Ho Park
*$400,000 Hong-Chih Kuo
Total: $6,450,000
Starting Lineup (8)
$14,100,000 Andruw Jones
$13,000,000 Rafael Furcal
$9,000,000 Jeff Kent
$8,500,000 Nomar Garciaparra
$8,000,000 Juan Pierre
$500,000 Russell Martin
*$400,000 James Loney
*$400,000 Matt Kemp
Total: $53,900,000
Bench (6)
$875,000 Gary Bennett
$600,000 Mark Sweeney
$424,500 Andre Ethier
$391,000 Delwyn Young
$390,000 Chin-Lung Hu
$390,000 Blake DeWitt
Total: $3,071,000
Disabled List
$12,000,000 Jason Schmidt
*$400,000 Tony Abreu
*$390,000 Andy LaRoche
Total: $12,790,000
Also Paying ...
$1,000,000 Brett Tomko
$750,000 Odalis Perez
$540,000 Yhency Brazoban
$500,000 Randy Wolf
$487,500 Jason Repko
$135,225 Rudy Seanez
$100,000 Mike Lieberthal
$50,000 Ramon Martinez
Total: $3,562,725
Working total: *$113,268,725
*Rough salary estimate
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For more information, please visit the Fairpole blog, or read the FAQ.
A fairly even-handed assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of the big-name Dodger minor league prospects arrived today from Dayn Perry at FoxSports.com. A sample:
Chad Billingsley, RHP
Billingsley's the best Dodger pitching prospect. In past seasons, he struggled badly with his control. In 2004, for instance, Billingsley walked 71 batters in 134.1 innings, but he made strides on that front in '05. He also finished second in the Southern League in strikeouts. Going forward, he needs to prove his improved control is sustainable. He also shows fly-ball tendencies, which could really hurt him next season at hitter-friendly Las Vegas. Billingsley's got tremendous stuff, but there are many ways for a young pitcher to squander his promise.
Joel Guzman, SS
Guzman is an outstanding power prospect, but he lacks plate discipline and his defense is such that he'll probably wind up at an outfield corner. Such a position switch will raise the bar for him offensively. He's likened to Juan Gonzalez in many circles. That remains to be seen, but Guzman's ceiling will be meaningfully lower if he's manning a corner slot rather than shortstop. He's the best prospect in the system, but he's not without his weaknesses.
At the same time, Perry writes in another article that "thanks to a division packed with mediocrities, the Dodgers are poised to make their latest playoff drought a brief one."
On top of all that, winning and losing has become a very year to year thing in baseball. Teams go from worst to first and first to worst all the time, and hardly anyone builds long-term with their farm system the way the Dodgers did back in the 1970s.
He also describes the 1b situation as follows: "Hee Seop Choi needs a platoon partner." I don't think that 81 ABs (less than 1 per week) confirms that, but at least he's willing to accept that HSC should get most of the plate appearances at 1b.
A few points:
Scouts are more mixed on Tiffany than Perry states. Although Elbert is further away, some rate him over Tiffany.
Too bad Willy Aybar again gets omitted from one of these lists.
Wouldn't surprise me to see Kemp emerge as the best of the bunch. And with the dearth of catching, Martin gets sold a little short here. He's got special feet.
Perry should give more scrutiny to the franchise's track record on development.
How many productive starting pitchers have the LAD developed in recent years? How many hitters? Are the development people doing a good job? Did they botch the handling of Edwin Jackson? It's one thing to have a nice bundle of raw talent, but have the Dodgers shown they can maximize talent?
one thing he fails to realize is that almost all our tops prospects except for martin, have been young at every level of play. That should play a considerable amount into future projections.
the second thing is that he didnt even rate all our best prospects. the one thing the dodger system has going for it is its incredible depth.
The 3rd thing the system has going for it is that even though it doesnt have that delmon young or king felix type prospect, its probably the most well rounded system in the bigs. We have our big power hitters, our slick fielding infielders, a couple top notch catchers, flame throwing projected closers, and quality potential #1 pitchers.
I also dont put much stock in dayn perry's prospect expertise. But i wont rip every little thing he says. Ill just talk about one quote:
"Miller is sort of the pitching version of Loney jaw-dropping raw ability, vanilla record of performance, injury concerns"
You cant compare loney to miller. You cant put a "vanilla performance" label on miller because when he was healthy, he was the best left handed pitching prospect in the game and in his first season back, he was very good despite the walks- which were expected.
I also find it humorous he talked about joel hanrahan but failed to mention justin orenduff at the same level. Or the relievers we have with broxton and kuo.
if i had to put some labels on our prospects it would go like this:
positional player to most likely reach potential: Russ martin
pitcher most likely to reach potential: Jon Broxton
Pitcher with most potential: Greg Miller
Positional player with most potential: Joel Guzman
i would rated the top 11 like this
Joel Guzman SS
Chad Billingsley SP
Andy Laroche 3b
Russ Martin C
Jon Broxton RP
Matt Kemp OF
Scott Elbert SP
Blake Dewitt 3b/2b
Chuck Tiffany SP
James Loney 1b
Justin Orenduff SP
miller didnt pitch enough to qualify. I want to see a healthy year next year.
Skin-NER!
Little, Acta, and Skinner will be interviewed by next Monday, and Acta claims his interview is Thursday. Acta seems to think he's already considered the manager:
"It took me by surprise that a team with such tradition as the Dodgers would consider me," Acta told the Associated Press in the Dominican Republic. "I'm going with an open mind as if the job was mine. The Dodgers are equal to baseball, so I feel proud to be considered to be their manager."
And spokesman Josh Rawitch couldn't confirm the Furcal meeting
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/wire?section=mlb&id=2241347
I'm always biased toward managers who played catcher. Especially players like Skinner who had little talent but somehow stayed in the majors.
The White Sox lost a player to free agency (I think it was Ed Farmer). Because of his status, the White Sox were allowed, under the terms of the new CBA, to pick one player from a pool of players (usually players 35-40 on the roster) of all teams in the major as compensation.
The White Sox tabbed Skinner. The White Sox later used this same technique to acquire Tom Seaver from the Mets. Oakland got Tim Belcher through the same system (from the Yankees) and in turn dealt him to the Dodgers.
I take payment in iron pyrite.
I've warned Nate in the past not to get his hopes up regarding Dodger prospects, but he didn't want to listen.
I am, however, fairly confident about our pitching. We have so many good arms that I really do think that we can avoid the perils of TINSTAAPP to some extent. It may not be the prospect on all our radar screen, but I do think that we'll see in the next few years a Dodger farm product emerge as one of the best young starters in the game. The question is, whether or not he'll be pitching in Dodger blue.
WWSH
If I am correct to think of TINSTAAPP as a sabermetric concept, meaning that there are real limits to using statistical methods to predict pitching performance, than does that mean that a more traditional scouting approach has more merit with regards to pitchers? Is this a correct thing for me to say? I sorta had that impression after a BA chat between old-school scouts and statheads that this was the case. The statheads seemed to be arguing IIRC that we have a higher degree of certainty when it comes to predicting hitting talent as opposed to pitching ability. Am I remembering wrong?
Furthermore, if one believes, as I do, that TINSTAAPP should not be taken to a extreme, that one knows nothing about a future pitching prospect's performance, does that then mean that the most important thing for any given system to have is a large pool of above-average arms as possible, as measured by both statistics and raw tools, in order to maximize the chance of finding a truly successful pitcher? And that one should be extremely cautious about trading any one out of, let's say, the top 10 pitchers in one's system? Also, that any farm system should emphasize pitching, on the assumption that a position player's value is more certain on the free agent market, therefore pitching is the premium product that needs to be produced on one's own farm?
WWSH
I think it is silly to downgrade the Dodger prospects because we don't have a Felix Hernandez upside. He may be the best pitcher at his age since Dwight Gooden. That is like complaining we don't have a Pujols or Cabrerra. Those players are RARE quit expecting them to show up every year. What we do have is a plethora of players who will have major league careers with a few of them being able to be impact players like Billingsly and Guzman. Even players like Abreu, Willie Aybar, D Young who can't crack our top ten should have decent Major League careers. I've been tracking Dodger prospects since 1969 and this is easily the best group of players they have had since the incredible draft that powered the team in the 70's. Who cares if most of them won't become all-stars? How unrealistic is that.
The Angels are deep in infield prospects, we are deep in pitching prospects. Neither of us have much in the outfield and we both have nice catching prospects. I like the upside of the Angels infield over our infield but I'll take our top 5 pitchers before I take one Angel pitcher not name Jared Weaver.
When BA finishes ranking the prospects the Dodgers will be in the top 3. Book it Dano
Kuo - 2 surgeries
G Miller - 2 surgeries, neither one were TJ or Labrum but serious enough that he lost lots of time. His are the worse because he did have the best talent in the minors at the time he went down the 1st time. Pitchers coming back from two surgeries at a young age are rare according to Will Carrol.
Megrew - TJ or Labrum?
D Thompson - TJ or Labrum?
So it is not like we haven't already been hit with some setbacks so yes it is a good thing we have stockpiled lots of pitching prospects because some of them are going to go down. Lets hope none go down this year.
If the Dodgers don't hire a manager soon, like by the end of this week, they will find it nearly impossible to attract and sign any of this year's free agents at least those few with some potential for a positive impact on the roster. Right now, the most viable candidates for what used to be one of the great gigs in baseball -- manager of The Los Angeles Dodgers -- are as follows: a retread who managed his way to a losing record while in his managerial prime (Fregosi), a guy who couldn't win the Big One, even with Nomar, Manny, Pedro, Curt and Senor Papi on the roster (Little), a complete unknown (Acta) who, sadly to say, is most likely on the list only to satisfy Chairman Bud's mandate for interviewing minority candidates, and someone considered not good enough to manage in Tampa Bay (McLaren)! At least Paul DePodesta was interviewing some guys we had heard about or at least had ties to the Dodgers organization (Trammell, Collins, Royster).
Why would Johnny Damon, Paul Konerko or Matt Morris -- or any decent player -- voluntarily choose to play for a team that hasn't got a clue how to run a decent press conference, let alone a major league ball club? What will be left for the Dodgers, to fill-in the holes at 3B, in the OF, and in the bullpen, are the dregs of the baseball off-season the lame, the aged, the forgotten misfits waiting for a non-roster invitation to anybody's spring training camp.
If this scenario plays out, the Dodgers will be forced to upgrade their roster via trades, and from a negotiating position of perceived weakness. How can you make a sensible deal if every other team on the planet knows your desperate? And, the only chips of marketable value that we have on the table are Kent, Gagne and perhaps Penny and, of course, our highly touted minor league prospects.
Of course, the McCourts and their newest GM, Ned "Snake" Colletti, can use Paul DePodesta as their excuse to write off 2006 at least in competitive baseball terms. They can claim DePodesta ruined the roster to the point that it couldn't be fixed and it's going to take a year or two to rebuild. The road to perdition will be cleared so that Snakeskin Ned can deal away the veterans of value (and high salaries), while hanging on to the younger players/prospects, and trim the payroll even more. It is a very attractive financial move for the McCourts. Young players without any MLB roster time don't have big salaries and they remain relatively inexpensive for a number of years -- which makes them very attractive to owners with a penchant for counting pennies --- like the McCourts. So we can probably say goodbye to Jeff, Eric and Brad in 2006 -- right around the July trading deadline and especially if the Dodgers are losing more than they're winning at that point.
The McCourts can look forward to raking in the profits from another 3 million plus attendance year in 2006, as loyal fans like ourselves will find it difficult to break their allegiances to the team - a team and an organization that is a far cry from the glory days of yore (pre-Murdoch/Fox). By the end of this season, the McCourts will have completed their mostly cosmetic "upgrades" to Dodger Stadium -- which in terms most Southern California home owners will understand -- is the equivalent of improving the curb appeal of your house by painting the exterior and laying down a new lawn, while ignoring the rusted galvanized plumbing and the overloaded old electrical wiring.
The McCourts can and will cut the player payroll from nearly $100 million a year to about $50 or $60 million. They have already cleared out most of the experienced (well paid) business and baseball executives left over from the O'Malley & Fox regimes. What's left at the top of the Dodgers food chain are a bunch of family members and clueless baseball "newbie's" - all chanting "Yes Jaimie, yes!" in unison for a lot less money.
The McCourts, despite their official pronouncements otherwise, are not long-term owners. They are "deal makers" -- and flipping the Dodgers for a $100 million or more profit after 3 or 4 years is not a bad business deal it is however, a bad baseball deal for the fans and for the stub of an organization they will eventually leave behind stripped of its pride, glory and roster value with nothing to look forward to except for watching the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim win a succession of championships.
and falls off the soapbox.
#24-Thank you for the optimistic outlook.Do you also predict earthquakes and bird flu outbreaks?
Maybe,just maybe things won't turn out quite as bad as you think.What's that old Hot Stove League saying..."Hope springs eternal"
Once again, thank you Evans/DePo for setting up this bargain bullpen.
In fairness, it's not like the folks in Tampa Bay are really great talent hounds. On the other hand, it's not like I'm terribly excited about John McLaren.
And I think it was FirstMohican who asked this morning whether Gathright would be any better than Repko, and the answer is no.
http://tinyurl.com/amtz6
I'm positive that we will be competitive in 2006 and probably win the pennant. I'm positive the payroll will be 75-85 millon. I'm positive we will sign several free agents. I'm positive that several of our prospects will get traded and that could be a good thing. I'm positive the overextended parking lot mogul will get richer every day because the real estate he owns is worth more everyday on both coasts. I'm positive the new seats in the stadium will seat another 3 million fans who will find new hero's. I'm positive that all this doom and gloom is overstated. Hurrying to make a decision just to make a decision is always a bad decision. JMO
If Ned really hires Flanders I'll be able to get back on board in a major way. I can't believe the FOX folks didn't think to do this. . .
20 - the problem I have with the Dodgers farm (stop me if you've heard this before) is that the prospects have this bad habit of getting to Vegas (or levels even lower) and turning to pumpkins. (Loney, for instance, who got injured and hasn't had a good season yet.) My problem is something akin to what Bill James said about overrated players; one factor is, "does he play in New York or Los Angeles?" The same operative is active with the Dodgers.
The scouts may say what they say, and so with Baseball America. But I will feel a whole lot better about the farm when that good young talent is actually playing in Chavez Ravine. The proof is in the pitching; so far, Mssrs. Broxton, Brazoban, Houlton, etc. haven't overly impressed me. Certainly, Edwin Jackson's disappearance from Perry's list is no accident.
36 - yes, the division is weak. We're also months away from pitchers and catchers reporting, let alone having completed 25-man rosters. Pessimism is easy, but so is optimism.
My Canadian friend says that the Liberals will still prevail although in a coalition.
I don't think that Canada apportions its seats in its Parliament in an equitable manner. There are too many in the East and too few in the West.
The Conservatives have come a long way from having two seats.
The truth is that the Dodgers' farm system has been so bad for so long that we haven't been able to see any dividends yet. Almost all our prospects are 22 or younger, hardly the age for most players to enter the majors. Perry could be right, maybe our system is overrated, but when so many trusted scouting sources rave about our system you have to believe that good things are in store in the near future.
Should we just cut to the chase and ask Brian Giles and Rafael Furcal which one of Colletti's candidates lights their candles?
While I agree with much of what you said, and am intrigued by the hint that DePodesta's hiring and firing was all a set-up to buy McCourt time to run the Dodgers with an artificially lowered payroll, I disagree with a few things:
-- The lemming-like return of 3 million fans is no sure thing. Usually there's a drop-off after a crummy season. There's been an especially negative vibe around the Dodgers this off-season, which especially impacts ticket sales to groups and businesses. We're in an era when an entertainment-content provider can take absolutely nothing for granted; just ask the LA Times or CBS Evening News.
-- The latest adds to the managerial hunt aren't so bad, really. Just because you've never heard of Acta doesn't make him a bad choice. Skinner and McLaren are eminently qualified. Skinner's managed in the minors and was just promoted to bench coach in Cleveland; McLaren losing out to Joe Maddon, highly respected, is not a disqualifier. Fregosi is a joke, and Little is a puzzle, but as a group, the five candidates Colletti has now compare pretty favorably to the group DePodesta was looking at.
Your perception of the McCourts is, however, totally accurate. The question is, how much damage will they do before they flip the team? Will they somehow manage to improve it? Do they have an incentive to do so?
Supposedly, the Braves offer to Furcal is the worst and they're hoping to get Furcal back due to familiarity. Furcal's agent isn't optimistic about the Braves, and it was an associate that met with Colletti. I'd say Cubs are in the lead so far. He claims we are one of three teams in the running for Furcal. If Kent doesn't want to play 1B and Furcal doesn't want to play 3B, then I have no idea what Colletti would do with Izturis. A trade would have LoDuca like implications, and I don't think McCurt needs that (well, he thinks he doesn't need it)
Not that I think the Dodgers will beat the Cubs. Hopefully Colletti doesn't go too crazy with a contract for Furcal, assuming he's serious about getting him
I don't know if it means I want him, but I watched an Angels/DRays game toward the end of the season where Gathright's speed just demolished the Angels. It seemed like if the guy got on first base, he'd score.
Do any sabrematicians keep track of the ratio of times on base/times scored a run? I'd have to think Gathright would be as close to 1.0 as anyone in the majors now.
Similarly, if Fregosi does end up in LA does that mean Terry Mulholland and Todd Pratt follow him there?
Thanks.
Actually, I can't help but wonder whether or not Atlanta is not REALLY intending to resign Furcal and is actually after Lugo. I don't have the stats in front of me, but how do Lugo and Furcal stack up offensively? I was under the impression that Lugo was actually better.
When did Giles say that?
BA/OBP/SLG/OPS
Julio Lugo
295/362/403/765
Rafael Furcal
284/348/429/777
Hmmm. So Furcal has a marginally better slugging percentage, but hasn't sabermetrics taught us that OBP is something like three times more valuable than Slugging? And I'm assuming Furcal gets paid (or will be paid) a LOT more than Lugo. So Lugo might be the better deal, for any team.
Furcal: .284 .348 .429 46sb 10cs
Furcal is a excellent defender, while lugo is merely good. A smart organization would take Lugo, so I think we all know what Atlanta will do. It be nice if the Dodgers were a smart organization.
you are right... its because jackson is not a prospect anymore due to pitching a certain amount of MLB innings.
The problem i have with perry is that he isnt a scout. he doesnt watch these players consistently. He writes for BP, he is more numbers oriented and with this write up of the dodger system, it was more about finding the holes in every prospect we have instead of showing their all around abilities.
I think everyone seems to forget the BA article written two months ago about our AA jax squad, calling them possibly the best prospect filled team EVER. They compared them to the yankee dynasty of