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$10,000,000 Derek Lowe
$9,500,000 Brad Penny
$7,000,000 Esteban Loaiza
*$500,000 Chad Billingsley
Total: $39,300,000

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The Good, the Bad and the Healing
2005-11-29 16:32
by Jon Weisman

A fairly even-handed assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of the big-name Dodger minor league prospects arrived today from Dayn Perry at FoxSports.com. A sample:

Chad Billingsley, RHP
Billingsley's the best Dodger pitching prospect. In past seasons, he struggled badly with his control. In 2004, for instance, Billingsley walked 71 batters in 134.1 innings, but he made strides on that front in '05. He also finished second in the Southern League in strikeouts. Going forward, he needs to prove his improved control is sustainable. He also shows fly-ball tendencies, which could really hurt him next season at hitter-friendly Las Vegas. Billingsley's got tremendous stuff, but there are many ways for a young pitcher to squander his promise.

Joel Guzman, SS
Guzman is an outstanding power prospect, but he lacks plate discipline and his defense is such that he'll probably wind up at an outfield corner. Such a position switch will raise the bar for him offensively. He's likened to Juan Gonzalez in many circles. That remains to be seen, but Guzman's ceiling will be meaningfully lower if he's manning a corner slot rather than shortstop. He's the best prospect in the system, but he's not without his weaknesses.

At the same time, Perry writes in another article that "thanks to a division packed with mediocrities, the Dodgers are poised to make their latest playoff drought a brief one."

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Comments (233)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2005-11-29 16:59:46
1.   RELX
Despite the article being just one man's opinion, that is the reason why you have to be skeptical of banking your future completely on the minor league system. Too many people seem to be under the impression that think that all these guys are going to come out of the farm system and make the team a contender in 2007/8. Even in the best of farm systems, only about a quarter of the prospects make it to the majors, and only a small percentage of those become stars. I live in NY, and remember when the Mets had the can't miss trio of Paul Wilson, Bill Pulshipher and Jason Isringhausen. That is why I won't be upset if Colleti trades away some of the prospects for proven talent. For all the Dodger prospect hype over the last few years, no one drafted by them except for Gagne has made a contribution in the 21st century. And it sounds like all the current Dodger prospects are at least a year or two away from even being in the big leagues, not to mention actually contribtuing.

On top of all that, winning and losing has become a very year to year thing in baseball. Teams go from worst to first and first to worst all the time, and hardly anyone builds long-term with their farm system the way the Dodgers did back in the 1970s.

2005-11-29 17:03:31
2.   GoBears
Dayn Perry is always pretty good. So I'm surprised that he got the Gagne thing wrong too - repeating that Game Over had the TJ surgery. He didn't.

He also describes the 1b situation as follows: "Hee Seop Choi needs a platoon partner." I don't think that 81 ABs (less than 1 per week) confirms that, but at least he's willing to accept that HSC should get most of the plate appearances at 1b.

2005-11-29 17:04:35
3.   dsfan
Fair, solid review.

A few points:

Scouts are more mixed on Tiffany than Perry states. Although Elbert is further away, some rate him over Tiffany.

Too bad Willy Aybar again gets omitted from one of these lists.

Wouldn't surprise me to see Kemp emerge as the best of the bunch. And with the dearth of catching, Martin gets sold a little short here. He's got special feet.

Perry should give more scrutiny to the franchise's track record on development.

How many productive starting pitchers have the LAD developed in recent years? How many hitters? Are the development people doing a good job? Did they botch the handling of Edwin Jackson? It's one thing to have a nice bundle of raw talent, but have the Dodgers shown they can maximize talent?

2005-11-29 17:57:23
4.   natepurcell
perry is selling our system short.

one thing he fails to realize is that almost all our tops prospects except for martin, have been young at every level of play. That should play a considerable amount into future projections.

the second thing is that he didnt even rate all our best prospects. the one thing the dodger system has going for it is its incredible depth.

The 3rd thing the system has going for it is that even though it doesnt have that delmon young or king felix type prospect, its probably the most well rounded system in the bigs. We have our big power hitters, our slick fielding infielders, a couple top notch catchers, flame throwing projected closers, and quality potential #1 pitchers.

I also dont put much stock in dayn perry's prospect expertise. But i wont rip every little thing he says. Ill just talk about one quote:
"Miller is sort of the pitching version of Loney — jaw-dropping raw ability, vanilla record of performance, injury concerns"

You cant compare loney to miller. You cant put a "vanilla performance" label on miller because when he was healthy, he was the best left handed pitching prospect in the game and in his first season back, he was very good despite the walks- which were expected.

I also find it humorous he talked about joel hanrahan but failed to mention justin orenduff at the same level. Or the relievers we have with broxton and kuo.

if i had to put some labels on our prospects it would go like this:
positional player to most likely reach potential: Russ martin
pitcher most likely to reach potential: Jon Broxton
Pitcher with most potential: Greg Miller
Positional player with most potential: Joel Guzman

i would rated the top 11 like this
Joel Guzman SS
Chad Billingsley SP
Andy Laroche 3b
Russ Martin C
Jon Broxton RP
Matt Kemp OF
Scott Elbert SP
Blake Dewitt 3b/2b
Chuck Tiffany SP
James Loney 1b
Justin Orenduff SP

miller didnt pitch enough to qualify. I want to see a healthy year next year.

2005-11-29 17:58:32
5.   King of the Hobos
And manager candidate #5 hs been revealed! 3B coach of the Indians, Joel Skinner. He was the interim manager when Manuel was fired in 2002. He's somewhere with Acta at the top of my choices
2005-11-29 17:59:03
6.   natepurcell
I personally think i can give a better review of the dodgers system than dayn perry.
2005-11-29 18:00:44
7.   D4P
5
Skin-NER!
2005-11-29 18:03:47
8.   natepurcell
also, Guzman's DWL performance is just a warm up to to next year where he will destroy the PCL.
2005-11-29 18:16:00
9.   King of the Hobos
ESPN's article on Skinner is interesting. He's the son of Bob Skinner, who was a former major league manager of the Padres and Phillies. He was a catcher in the big leagues, wasn't there someone who showed that catchers tend to be slightly more successful as managers?

Little, Acta, and Skinner will be interviewed by next Monday, and Acta claims his interview is Thursday. Acta seems to think he's already considered the manager:

"It took me by surprise that a team with such tradition as the Dodgers would consider me," Acta told the Associated Press in the Dominican Republic. "I'm going with an open mind as if the job was mine. The Dodgers are equal to baseball, so I feel proud to be considered to be their manager."

And spokesman Josh Rawitch couldn't confirm the Furcal meeting

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/wire?section=mlb&id=2241347

2005-11-29 18:16:13
10.   dzzrtRatt
Skinner was interim manager for the Indians in '02. Why didn't they keep him?

I'm always biased toward managers who played catcher. Especially players like Skinner who had little talent but somehow stayed in the majors.

2005-11-29 18:20:11
11.   King of the Hobos
Scout.com is doing a top 54 prospect list for the Dodgers. I can't read them, but so far it's 54. Ramon Troncoso and 53. Trayvon Robinson
2005-11-29 18:26:40
12.   Bob Timmermann
I remember back in the day (1982) when Joel Skinner became the answer to a trivia question when he was the first player picked as free agent compensation.

The White Sox lost a player to free agency (I think it was Ed Farmer). Because of his status, the White Sox were allowed, under the terms of the new CBA, to pick one player from a pool of players (usually players 35-40 on the roster) of all teams in the major as compensation.

The White Sox tabbed Skinner. The White Sox later used this same technique to acquire Tom Seaver from the Mets. Oakland got Tim Belcher through the same system (from the Yankees) and in turn dealt him to the Dodgers.

2005-11-29 18:28:38
13.   scareduck
4 - on the contrary, I think Perry's spot-on. There are a few guys in the Dodgers system who are going to be very good, but very, very few (LaRoche, maybe, Kemp, perhaps, but so far I would say none of the pitchers). Like it or not, the failure to produce a Felix Hernandez-grade impact player is the exact problem the Dodgers have. I see a lot of iron pyrite in the Dodgers' minor leagues.
2005-11-29 18:29:27
14.   Bob Timmermann
I demand a royalty payment for the use of my metaphor!

I take payment in iron pyrite.

2005-11-29 18:30:27
15.   D4P
13
I've warned Nate in the past not to get his hopes up regarding Dodger prospects, but he didn't want to listen.
2005-11-29 18:36:11
16.   Wayne Wei-siang Hsieh
Ah, yes, the old 6-4-2 debate over whether or not our prospects are really all that good. I guess we're going to find out in about two or three seasons who's right. I personally think we'll be fine, although I think scareduck has a point when he cites Jackson's flame-out and Loney's very scattershot performance (his power surge in AFL needs to be carried over into a full season).

I am, however, fairly confident about our pitching. We have so many good arms that I really do think that we can avoid the perils of TINSTAAPP to some extent. It may not be the prospect on all our radar screen, but I do think that we'll see in the next few years a Dodger farm product emerge as one of the best young starters in the game. The question is, whether or not he'll be pitching in Dodger blue.

WWSH

2005-11-29 18:54:34
17.   overkill94
11 I'm tempted to subscribe for 2 months just so I can see the write-ups. I probably haven't even heard of anyone past the top 25.
2005-11-29 19:07:57
18.   Wayne Wei-siang Hsieh
Here's a thought for the prospect pros around here.

If I am correct to think of TINSTAAPP as a sabermetric concept, meaning that there are real limits to using statistical methods to predict pitching performance, than does that mean that a more traditional scouting approach has more merit with regards to pitchers? Is this a correct thing for me to say? I sorta had that impression after a BA chat between old-school scouts and statheads that this was the case. The statheads seemed to be arguing IIRC that we have a higher degree of certainty when it comes to predicting hitting talent as opposed to pitching ability. Am I remembering wrong?

Furthermore, if one believes, as I do, that TINSTAAPP should not be taken to a extreme, that one knows nothing about a future pitching prospect's performance, does that then mean that the most important thing for any given system to have is a large pool of above-average arms as possible, as measured by both statistics and raw tools, in order to maximize the chance of finding a truly successful pitcher? And that one should be extremely cautious about trading any one out of, let's say, the top 10 pitchers in one's system? Also, that any farm system should emphasize pitching, on the assumption that a position player's value is more certain on the free agent market, therefore pitching is the premium product that needs to be produced on one's own farm?

WWSH

2005-11-29 20:05:49
19.   rockmrete
Off topic...Why hasn't Kevin Kennedy's name come up as a candidate for manager. I heard him say he was interested in the position.
2005-11-29 20:06:21
20.   molokai
13
I think it is silly to downgrade the Dodger prospects because we don't have a Felix Hernandez upside. He may be the best pitcher at his age since Dwight Gooden. That is like complaining we don't have a Pujols or Cabrerra. Those players are RARE quit expecting them to show up every year. What we do have is a plethora of players who will have major league careers with a few of them being able to be impact players like Billingsly and Guzman. Even players like Abreu, Willie Aybar, D Young who can't crack our top ten should have decent Major League careers. I've been tracking Dodger prospects since 1969 and this is easily the best group of players they have had since the incredible draft that powered the team in the 70's. Who cares if most of them won't become all-stars? How unrealistic is that.

The Angels are deep in infield prospects, we are deep in pitching prospects. Neither of us have much in the outfield and we both have nice catching prospects. I like the upside of the Angels infield over our infield but I'll take our top 5 pitchers before I take one Angel pitcher not name Jared Weaver.
When BA finishes ranking the prospects the Dodgers will be in the top 3. Book it Dano

2005-11-29 20:07:32
21.   molokai
Skinnnnerrrrrrrrrrrr, now that is a name I can get behind.
2005-11-29 20:19:33
22.   molokai
I've never thought of TINSTAAPP as a sabermetric concept. It was created by the boys at BP but even at BP many don't agree with it. I always thought it was based more on the injury nexus then a pitcher just failing if the performance analysis showed success. So many young pitching prospects go down to injury that it is hard to count on them. The guy giving the Met example was right. 3 of the best prospects in the league and boom, boom, boom they end up with nothing. Isn't that where the disdain for Dallas Green comes from? The Seattle Mariners have only King Felix left to show from countless pitching prospects who have gone down. The A's have been the opposite, what were the odds that Mulder, Hudson, Zito, and Harden could all escape serious arm trouble. Maybe I shouldn't include Harden since he did have some this year. Since the Dodgers started bringing in the pitching talent they have already been hit hard with pitching problems:
Kuo - 2 surgeries
G Miller - 2 surgeries, neither one were TJ or Labrum but serious enough that he lost lots of time. His are the worse because he did have the best talent in the minors at the time he went down the 1st time. Pitchers coming back from two surgeries at a young age are rare according to Will Carrol.
Megrew - TJ or Labrum?
D Thompson - TJ or Labrum?
So it is not like we haven't already been hit with some setbacks so yes it is a good thing we have stockpiled lots of pitching prospects because some of them are going to go down. Lets hope none go down this year.
2005-11-29 20:19:35
23.   Jon Weisman
19 - We're still recovering from Kennedy mentioning that he was a manager every night on the Southern California Sports Report. By the way, did I mention that he mentioned he was a manager?
2005-11-29 20:25:47
24.   MikeB
Steps up on the soap box …

If the Dodgers don't hire a manager soon, like by the end of this week, they will find it nearly impossible to attract and sign any of this year's free agents – at least those few with some potential for a positive impact on the roster. Right now, the most viable candidates for what used to be one of the great gigs in baseball -- manager of The Los Angeles Dodgers -- are as follows: a retread who managed his way to a losing record while in his managerial prime (Fregosi), a guy who couldn't win the Big One, even with Nomar, Manny, Pedro, Curt and Senor Papi on the roster (Little), a complete unknown (Acta) who, sadly to say, is most likely on the list only to satisfy Chairman Bud's mandate for interviewing minority candidates, and someone considered not good enough to manage in Tampa Bay (McLaren)! At least Paul DePodesta was interviewing some guys we had heard about or at least had ties to the Dodgers organization (Trammell, Collins, Royster).

Why would Johnny Damon, Paul Konerko or Matt Morris -- or any decent player -- voluntarily choose to play for a team that hasn't got a clue how to run a decent press conference, let alone a major league ball club? What will be left for the Dodgers, to fill-in the holes at 3B, in the OF, and in the bullpen, are the dregs of the baseball off-season – the lame, the aged, the forgotten misfits waiting for a non-roster invitation to anybody's spring training camp.

If this scenario plays out, the Dodgers will be forced to upgrade their roster via trades, and from a negotiating position of perceived weakness. How can you make a sensible deal if every other team on the planet knows your desperate? And, the only chips of marketable value that we have on the table are Kent, Gagne and perhaps Penny – and, of course, our highly touted minor league prospects.

Of course, the McCourts and their newest GM, Ned "Snake" Colletti, can use Paul DePodesta as their excuse to write off 2006 – at least in competitive baseball terms. They can claim DePodesta ruined the roster to the point that it couldn't be fixed – and it's going to take a year or two to rebuild. The road to perdition will be cleared so that Snakeskin Ned can deal away the veterans of value (and high salaries), while hanging on to the younger players/prospects, and trim the payroll even more. It is a very attractive financial move for the McCourts. Young players without any MLB roster time don't have big salaries – and they remain relatively inexpensive for a number of years -- which makes them very attractive to owners with a penchant for counting pennies --- like the McCourts. So we can probably say goodbye to Jeff, Eric and Brad in 2006 -- right around the July trading deadline – and especially if the Dodgers are losing more than they're winning at that point.

The McCourts can look forward to raking in the profits from another 3 million plus attendance year in 2006, as loyal fans like ourselves will find it difficult to break their allegiances to the team - a team and an organization that is a far cry from the glory days of yore (pre-Murdoch/Fox). By the end of this season, the McCourts will have completed their mostly cosmetic "upgrades" to Dodger Stadium -- which in terms most Southern California home owners will understand -- is the equivalent of improving the curb appeal of your house by painting the exterior and laying down a new lawn, while ignoring the rusted galvanized plumbing and the overloaded old electrical wiring.

The McCourts can and will cut the player payroll from nearly $100 million a year to about $50 or $60 million. They have already cleared out most of the experienced (well paid) business and baseball executives left over from the O'Malley & Fox regimes. What's left at the top of the Dodgers food chain are a bunch of family members and clueless baseball "newbie's" - all chanting "Yes Jaimie, yes!" in unison for a lot less money.

The McCourts, despite their official pronouncements otherwise, are not long-term owners. They are "deal makers" -- and flipping the Dodgers for a $100 million or more profit after 3 or 4 years is not a bad business deal – it is however, a bad baseball deal – for the fans and for the stub of an organization they will eventually leave behind – stripped of its pride, glory and roster value – with nothing to look forward to except for watching the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim win a succession of championships.

… and falls off the soapbox.

2005-11-29 20:26:45
25.   Steve
So while we wait to see whether one mere signature guarantees five more years of ignominy, any information about Joel Skinner, who apparently has nothing that 139 people in baseball don't have, except for his combination name of favored characters on MST3K and The Simpsons?
2005-11-29 20:33:51
26.   rockmrete
24 - My sentiments exactly
2005-11-29 20:36:23
27.   FirstMohican
(Hides the soapbox)
2005-11-29 20:38:41
28.   MikeB
27. Thank you!
2005-11-29 20:39:17
29.   bill cox
#13-What's your criteria for saying basically the system is all hype,none of the pitchers will make it(nevermind that Broxton and Kuo have already had some success at major league level)I thought Perry's analysis was uninformed and looking for holes in these guys' games.Have you ever seen any of these guys play,Scareduck?
#24-Thank you for the optimistic outlook.Do you also predict earthquakes and bird flu outbreaks?
Maybe,just maybe things won't turn out quite as bad as you think.What's that old Hot Stove League saying..."Hope springs eternal"
2005-11-29 20:40:11
30.   FirstMohican
AP: "The Yankees and Farnsworth have been talking about a two- or three-year deal averaging $4.5 million to $6 million, a high-ranking baseball official said Tuesday, speaking on condition of anonymity because the negotiations were ongoing."

Once again, thank you Evans/DePo for setting up this bargain bullpen.

2005-11-29 20:44:40
31.   Steve
someone considered not good enough to manage in Tampa Bay

In fairness, it's not like the folks in Tampa Bay are really great talent hounds. On the other hand, it's not like I'm terribly excited about John McLaren.

And I think it was FirstMohican who asked this morning whether Gathright would be any better than Repko, and the answer is no.

2005-11-29 20:45:33
32.   molokai
Great article at BP on how the CWS used the bullpen during the 2005 season.
http://tinyurl.com/amtz6
2005-11-29 20:53:50
33.   MikeB
29. Sorry, but I cannot feign hope at a time when an overextended Boston parking lot mogul now owns my favorite baseball team, with a former Giant executive named as GM, and with a high probability that a former Angel, who also happens to be a mediocrity as a manager, will soon be signed to make out the lineups. Is there anyone out there with the imagination to have even considered this scenario two months ago? What is there to be positive about. I'd really like to know.
2005-11-29 21:05:06
34.   Steve
33 -- What, the $60 million banjo hitting shortstop with Guillermo Mota's liver doesn't do it for you?
2005-11-29 21:11:37
35.   MikeB
33. Oh Susanna!
2005-11-29 21:16:05
36.   molokai
33
I'm positive that we will be competitive in 2006 and probably win the pennant. I'm positive the payroll will be 75-85 millon. I'm positive we will sign several free agents. I'm positive that several of our prospects will get traded and that could be a good thing. I'm positive the overextended parking lot mogul will get richer every day because the real estate he owns is worth more everyday on both coasts. I'm positive the new seats in the stadium will seat another 3 million fans who will find new hero's. I'm positive that all this doom and gloom is overstated. Hurrying to make a decision just to make a decision is always a bad decision. JMO
2005-11-29 21:22:02
37.   molokai
I'm mostly positive because my Clips beat the the Twolves and that was a win they had to have as they now play 4 games in a row that they probably won't win.
2005-11-29 21:26:45
38.   Andrew Shimmin
I don't know how you people can be talking about baseball. CANADA's government has fallen! Will Paul Martin be able to steer the Liberal party back to power, despite its scandels? Will the Conservatives finally make any headway? How about the Quebecois national party? Really, it's like Christmas in, er, December.

If Ned really hires Flanders I'll be able to get back on board in a major way. I can't believe the FOX folks didn't think to do this. . .

2005-11-29 21:29:10
39.   Steve
You must mean Russ Martin.
2005-11-29 21:31:27
40.   molokai
How does this effect someone who wants to retire on Vancouver Island :)
2005-11-29 21:36:07
41.   Andrew Shimmin
I love Canadian politics. They're similar to American politics, except that they don't effect me in any way. It's like a video game. Harvard dandy Michael Ignatieff has returned home to run for Parliment. That's like when the actor who played the character in the movie voices it for the video game. Gives the illusion of being an actual person.
2005-11-29 21:39:34
42.   Steve
The best night on television is the night of the British Parliamentary elections. Best. Graphics. Ever.
2005-11-29 21:42:42
43.   scareduck
16 - indeed, a wait-and-see attitude is all anyone can have right now. But even then, with Colletti at the driver's wheel, one possible future is to watch while all the pieces get traded for useless veteran junk.

20 - the problem I have with the Dodgers farm (stop me if you've heard this before) is that the prospects have this bad habit of getting to Vegas (or levels even lower) and turning to pumpkins. (Loney, for instance, who got injured and hasn't had a good season yet.) My problem is something akin to what Bill James said about overrated players; one factor is, "does he play in New York or Los Angeles?" The same operative is active with the Dodgers.

The scouts may say what they say, and so with Baseball America. But I will feel a whole lot better about the farm when that good young talent is actually playing in Chavez Ravine. The proof is in the pitching; so far, Mssrs. Broxton, Brazoban, Houlton, etc. haven't overly impressed me. Certainly, Edwin Jackson's disappearance from Perry's list is no accident.

36 - yes, the division is weak. We're also months away from pitchers and catchers reporting, let alone having completed 25-man rosters. Pessimism is easy, but so is optimism.

2005-11-29 21:52:08
44.   Bob Timmermann
The graphics for the Canadian elections are cool. They show the CBC and the estimable Peter Mansbridge on C-SPAN.

My Canadian friend says that the Liberals will still prevail although in a coalition.

I don't think that Canada apportions its seats in its Parliament in an equitable manner. There are too many in the East and too few in the West.

2005-11-29 21:54:53
45.   Steve
I would guess the graphics are similar, and very cool. American election graphics are horrible.

The Conservatives have come a long way from having two seats.

2005-11-29 22:00:41
46.   King of the Hobos
Apparently Konerko has denied the Orioles' offer despite it being more than the Angels (and likely the White Sox). The Orioles are not confident that they have a chance.
2005-11-29 22:14:57
47.   overkill94
43 Well, let's see here - Broxton had a total of 13 2/3 IP in the majors last year, hardly any way to judge anyone (and he managed an amazing 22 K's); Brazoban is not a Dodgers farmhand, he was included in the Brown/Weaver trade as a throw-in, any success will be considered gravy; Houlton was a rule 5 draft pick last year who was mostly only kept because we had to either keep him or return him back to the Astros and because we had no better starters.

The truth is that the Dodgers' farm system has been so bad for so long that we haven't been able to see any dividends yet. Almost all our prospects are 22 or younger, hardly the age for most players to enter the majors. Perry could be right, maybe our system is overrated, but when so many trusted scouting sources rave about our system you have to believe that good things are in store in the near future.

2005-11-29 22:15:24
48.   dzzrtRatt
24 To pick up on one of your points, are you suggesting that Colletti should choose as manager the candidate that potential free agents will respond to positively?

Should we just cut to the chase and ask Brian Giles and Rafael Furcal which one of Colletti's candidates lights their candles?

While I agree with much of what you said, and am intrigued by the hint that DePodesta's hiring and firing was all a set-up to buy McCourt time to run the Dodgers with an artificially lowered payroll, I disagree with a few things:

-- The lemming-like return of 3 million fans is no sure thing. Usually there's a drop-off after a crummy season. There's been an especially negative vibe around the Dodgers this off-season, which especially impacts ticket sales to groups and businesses. We're in an era when an entertainment-content provider can take absolutely nothing for granted; just ask the LA Times or CBS Evening News.

-- The latest adds to the managerial hunt aren't so bad, really. Just because you've never heard of Acta doesn't make him a bad choice. Skinner and McLaren are eminently qualified. Skinner's managed in the minors and was just promoted to bench coach in Cleveland; McLaren losing out to Joe Maddon, highly respected, is not a disqualifier. Fregosi is a joke, and Little is a puzzle, but as a group, the five candidates Colletti has now compare pretty favorably to the group DePodesta was looking at.

Your perception of the McCourts is, however, totally accurate. The question is, how much damage will they do before they flip the team? Will they somehow manage to improve it? Do they have an incentive to do so?

2005-11-29 22:20:03
49.   overkill94
As far as Gathright is concerned, he's a hell of a lot faster than Repko, that's for sure. Secondly, he posted an OBP of .384 or over at every stop in the minors except his first year in 2000 when it was .360. That hasn't exactly translated to major league success since he only manage a .316 OBP last year for TB, but that could be attributed to adjusting to major league pitching. I know it's hard to rely on a guy to maintain a .300+ BA, but with Gathright's speed it should be easier than most.
2005-11-29 22:24:11
50.   King of the Hobos
Henson article up. Drew is in to get examined tomorrow, and meet Colletti. Hopefully everything is good so far

Supposedly, the Braves offer to Furcal is the worst and they're hoping to get Furcal back due to familiarity. Furcal's agent isn't optimistic about the Braves, and it was an associate that met with Colletti. I'd say Cubs are in the lead so far. He claims we are one of three teams in the running for Furcal. If Kent doesn't want to play 1B and Furcal doesn't want to play 3B, then I have no idea what Colletti would do with Izturis. A trade would have LoDuca like implications, and I don't think McCurt needs that (well, he thinks he doesn't need it)

Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2005-11-29 22:40:01
51.   King of the Hobos
To further the last post, the Braves have re-opened talks with the DRays about Lugo, likely meaning they're not confident about Furcal

Not that I think the Dodgers will beat the Cubs. Hopefully Colletti doesn't go too crazy with a contract for Furcal, assuming he's serious about getting him

2005-11-29 22:45:30
52.   Steve
49 -- I don't get too hung up on the stats. Gathright has terrible footwork and a hole in his swing.
2005-11-29 22:51:44
53.   dzzrtRatt
52 I hear Choi has signed up for 10 weeks of Arthur Murray!

I don't know if it means I want him, but I watched an Angels/DRays game toward the end of the season where Gathright's speed just demolished the Angels. It seemed like if the guy got on first base, he'd score.

Do any sabrematicians keep track of the ratio of times on base/times scored a run? I'd have to think Gathright would be as close to 1.0 as anyone in the majors now.

2005-11-29 22:52:54
54.   GoBears
50 While I'm pretty sure I don't want Furcal at the current price, I don't think that trading Izturis would cause that much of a media backlash IF a replacement were already here, and performing well. Part of the trauma with Lo Duca was that it was a suprise to everyone, and the other part was a season of Dave Ross and Brent Mayne. If Dionner Navarro had already been up, and winning hearts and minds through a half-season injury to Lo Duca, then the trade wouldn't have been so poorly reviewed, despite the high scrappiness quotient.
2005-11-29 22:53:55
55.   das411
24 - Didn't Schilling only talk his way over to the Bosox after Little left and his old friend Tito Francona took over?

Similarly, if Fregosi does end up in LA does that mean Terry Mulholland and Todd Pratt follow him there?

2005-11-29 22:58:15
56.   Steve
A career high ten doubles last year. Groovy.
2005-11-29 22:59:47
57.   GoBears
There's a link to a Neyer chat in a box on the front page of ESPN's MLB section. It's surrounded by links to Dodger-related stories, so I wonder if the chat talked about the Dodgers. Any Insiders who can shed some light?

Thanks.

2005-11-29 23:15:22
58.   Vaudeville Villain
51-

Actually, I can't help but wonder whether or not Atlanta is not REALLY intending to resign Furcal and is actually after Lugo. I don't have the stats in front of me, but how do Lugo and Furcal stack up offensively? I was under the impression that Lugo was actually better.

2005-11-29 23:17:08
59.   dzzrtRatt
From Henson: "The Dodgers are one of several teams who have shown strong interest in free-agent corner outfielder Brian Giles, who has expressed a desire to play on the West Coast and who also said he would not re-sign with San Diego."

When did Giles say that?

2005-11-29 23:20:23
60.   sanchez101
Apparently the dodgers are set to interview Indians third base coach Joel Skinner. So let me get this straight, Ned, aka Flanders, will be interviewing, Skinner? Maybe we can bring Homer Bush out of retierment to be his bench coach.
2005-11-29 23:20:42
61.   Vaudeville Villain
Never mind, got it.

BA/OBP/SLG/OPS

Julio Lugo

295/362/403/765

Rafael Furcal

284/348/429/777

Hmmm. So Furcal has a marginally better slugging percentage, but hasn't sabermetrics taught us that OBP is something like three times more valuable than Slugging? And I'm assuming Furcal gets paid (or will be paid) a LOT more than Lugo. So Lugo might be the better deal, for any team.

2005-11-29 23:26:26
62.   sanchez101
Lugo: .295 .362 .403 39sb 11cs
Furcal: .284 .348 .429 46sb 10cs

Furcal is a excellent defender, while lugo is merely good. A smart organization would take Lugo, so I think we all know what Atlanta will do. It be nice if the Dodgers were a smart organization.

2005-11-29 23:51:44
63.   Vaudeville Villain
52 was hilarious by the way.
2005-11-29 23:52:19
64.   Uncle Miltie
Lugo is a real wife beater, unlike Bradley, so why would the Dodgers be interested in him? Oh, but they're interested in 2 time DUI'er Rafael Furcal.
2005-11-30 00:07:33
65.   natepurcell
Certainly, Edwin Jackson's disappearance from Perry's list is no accident.

you are right... its because jackson is not a prospect anymore due to pitching a certain amount of MLB innings.

The problem i have with perry is that he isnt a scout. he doesnt watch these players consistently. He writes for BP, he is more numbers oriented and with this write up of the dodger system, it was more about finding the holes in every prospect we have instead of showing their all around abilities.

I think everyone seems to forget the BA article written two months ago about our AA jax squad, calling them possibly the best prospect filled team EVER. They compared them to the yankee dynasty of