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Work in Progress: Where Do the Dodgers Stand?
2005-12-15 09:24
by Jon Weisman

This is a snapshot of the Dodgers, with the understanding that further changes are to come.

First Base
Status: Solid

As it stands, we have the return of the Hee Seop Choi/Olmedo Saenz combo, which despite being sat upon by Jason Phillips, lifted the Dodgers to No. 6 in the National League in OPS at first base in 2005. The teams ahead of the Dodgers at first base last season: Chicago (Derrek Lee), St. Louis (Albert Pujols), Colorado (Todd Helton and Coors Field), Arizona (Chad Tracy and Tony Clark (?!)) and Florida (Carlos Delgado). The Dodgers got 31 home runs at the position, and while Saenz is likely to decline from his 2005 totals, the much younger Choi is likely to improve. As a backup, you have Jeff Kent, which ain't bad. It's unlikely and somewhat irrational to even speak of it, but James Loney could send Choi back to the trading block were he to crush Choi in Spring Training.

Second Base
Status: Solid to exceptional

Jeff Kent surprised by improving from age 36 to age 37, striking one blow against the myth that free agent signees need an adjustment period, but we should prepare for some kind of regression after his 38th birthday in March. If Kent somehow ends up at first base, that position wouldn't suffer, but the Dodgers would then try to make up Kent's .800-.900 OPS at second base with Willy Aybar, or, if Andy LaRoche speeds to the majors at third base, day-old acquisition Bill Mueller.

Shortstop
Status: Solid to Exceptional

It's $13 million Rafael Furcal's infield now, and we just build around it. As a shortstop, he's at or near the top of the league - by being an above-average fielder for his position and an average hitter when you throw position out of the equation. Atlanta, with Furcal as its leadoff hitter in 2005, was third in the league in leadoff OPS. Oscar Robles is the incumbent backup, with Cesar Izturis entering the picture in the summer and a rush to 21-year-old Joel Guzman an emergency option should calamity strike.

Third Base
Status: Solid

The question upon deeper examination is what effect Dodger Stadium, whose symmetrical, easily patrolled outfield reduces doubles and triples, will have on Bill Mueller, whose slugging percentage depends greatly on doubles. My hunch - and I'll freely admit that's all it is - is that the effect will not be significant, and that Mueller should hold down the position. But if you need something else to worry about, Mueller was fourth in the American League in 2005 in grounding into double plays (22). Willy Aybar, who himself hit eight doubles in 86 major-league at-bats last season, should get a chance to spot start and provide a spark off the bench.

Outfield
Status: Man down

J.D. Drew is not Kirk Gibson, but he's an exceptional hitter (1.006 and .931 OPS the past two seasons) who, going by his history, you should expect to play in more games in 2006. If you combine Jose Cruz, Jr., Ricky Ledee, Jayson Werth (who might be on the disabled list in April) and minor leaguers Delwyn Young and Andre Ethier), you have a decent shot at coming away with a decent third outfielder. But without a solid addition out there on the grass, the Dodgers are stretched thin as far as finding a prince to stand beside King Drew. Look for someone to sign up in the next week, and hope for the best. Jason Repko figures to return as a backup, while Joel Guzman may train in right field in 2006 at Las Vegas.

Catcher
Status: Solid

Dioner Navarro won't turn 22 until February, but he already has a career .751 OPS in 206 plate appearances. A .751 OPS would have put the Dodgers sixth in the National League at catcher in 2005. Navarro will be tested by his first full season in the majors, but he is also poised for improvement at the outset. Catching instructor Sandy Alomar, Jr. will sit next to him while the Dodgers bat and even don the tools of ignorance once a week himself - apparently that's part of his coaching agreement - while Russell Martin, 359 days older than Navarro, will prepare in Las Vegas for his challenge to the incumbent. Jason Phillips, we somewhat knew ye ...

Starting Pitcher
Status: Picture Rodney Dangerfield pulling at his necktie

If no changes were made, the rotation would lead off with Brad Penny, Derek Lowe, and Odalis Perez, three pitchers capable of stringing together four starts in a row at an ERA of 1.50 and then following them with four starts at an ERA of 5.50. Next, you have D.J. Houlton, who could conceviably parlay his 2005 learning experience and 6.3 strikeouts per nine innings into a serviceable year at age 26. And coming up from the 22-and-younger crowd, there's Edwin Jackson (still that young), Chad Billingsley and Jonathan Broxton, one of whom could be probably be counted on to at least match Houlton's '05. The Dodger rotation remains anomalous to the great tradition here, but, um, at least it's not a team of five Scott Ericksons.

Bullpen
Status: Solid to exceptional

The choice above depends on how quickly Eric Gagne returns to being Eric Gagne. Assuming he becomes the anchor again, the right-handed options behind him are plentiful, with Yhency Brazoban (whom many think has solved his 2005 problems in winter ball), Duaner Sanchez, Franquelis Osoria and in all likelihood, Jonathan Broxton. Steve Schmoll could also be considered a favorite to win a bullpen spot in March, though 22 walks vs. 29 strikeouts in 46 2/3 innings last season should be considered a serious warning sign. From the left side, Hong-Chih Kuo will be given every chance to pitch 'til he drops - and hey, speaking of injury-riddled prospects, any of you willing to place a longshot bet on Greg Miller? Look for at least one TBD veteran journeyman to provide some competition for this group.

Overall Assessment
Status: Solid

What does solid mean in this context? It means that the Dodgers have a NL West title contender with the ability to improve between now and April, let alone between April and September. It's too soon to make any worthwhile predictions for 2006 (I'm not even much good at making worthwhile predictions the night before), but you can already feel, like a Chavez Ravine version of Derek Smalls, the Dodgers breaking free of their 2005 cocoon of losses. Better late than never.

 

Comments (692)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2005-12-15 10:08:43
1.   DXMachina
Good analysis and a Tap reference, what could be better?
2005-12-15 10:09:44
2.   Johnson
I'm kind of surprised that Kent at second didn't rate "solid to exceptional", but maybe that's just me.

As for our can't-get-no-respect starting pitching, I don't exactly relish the idea of two of the Jackson/Houlton/Broxton/Billingsley group being in the rotation together. I'd like to see Bills get another year in the minors and a September call-up, and for some reason I see Houlton's value in long relief and spot starts. I'd like to see Weaver accept an arbitration year - Chad can replace him in 2007 - or barring that, a veteran like Tomko could be a good-value signing. As for the fifth spot, I want the ball to be in Jackson's hands until he proves he can't (or can!) cut it at the major league level. I think we've got to figure out what we have in this kid since we've got a good number of pitching prospects coming up the pipe.

As for Broxton, I'm OK with him staying in the pen for now...yet I don't relish the idea of Miller stepping into a 2006 relief role in favor of building up his arm strength in the minors for a shot at a starting role down the road. I can't say why I feel differently about these guys...maybe it's a lefty/righty thing.

2005-12-15 10:11:43
3.   Xeifrank
Local sports talk radio reported this AM that Nomar will most likely make his decision on where he signs ethier today or tomorrow. :) vr, Xei
2005-12-15 10:13:19
4.   Spageticus
Great Assessment.

Is Wunsch out as Loogy? What is his status?

2005-12-15 10:13:36
5.   Jacob L
I understand that a front office doesn't necessarily go about addressing needs in a logical order, but the fact that, so far this offseason, we've been stockpiling infielders (with an offer still pending to Nomar??) while starting pitching and outfield goes untended is baffling.
2005-12-15 10:15:07
6.   Jon Weisman
2 - You could be right about Kent. I'll mull.

4 - Wunsch is still an option, I think - but if he has a 2006 contract, I missed it.

2005-12-15 10:17:53
7.   Jon Weisman
2, 6 - I just have bad feelings about Kent, who from the moment he signed I figured would be great for 2006 but not so much for 2007. But I'm going to take your hint and accentuate the positive.
2005-12-15 10:19:11
8.   Bob Timmermann
Moths come out of cocoons. Butterflies come out of chrysalises.

I don't want the Dodgers to be a moth.

2005-12-15 10:19:34
9.   slackfarmer
For the most part I agree with your analysis, although I'm less sanguine about Furcal and Mueller's ability to hit doubles and triples in Dodger Stadium. It will be interesting to see if Mr. Ned has the budget to plug the remaining holes in the OF and SP. As for the pen, I think it will be fairly good, but I fear than Gagne will not return to prior glory. The key to 2006 will be injuries. If the club remains healthy, they should do well. However, Ned has signed a number of injury-prone guys. The good news is that it would take some serious bad luck (the McCourt curse?) to repeat last years injury situation, and even if it does, the farm hands are closer to being ready.
2005-12-15 10:25:08
10.   Shmueli4
Jon,

As per Wunch (above) and Carrara (a question from a comment in recent days):

http://tinyurl.com/buajr

2005-12-15 10:25:56
11.   Shmueli4
10.
Wun[s]ch, ed.
2005-12-15 10:26:21
12.   Jon Weisman
8 - That is a distinction that does not appear in the books I read my children.

9 - I sort of think about Paul Lo Duca. It's just an isolated example so it only plays into my hunch, but this is a guy who is basically a doubles hitter, and life as a Dodger didn't hurt him.

2001 - 28 doubles
2002 - 38 doubles
2003 - 34 doubles
2004 - 29 doubles (18 with the Dodgers)
2005 - 23 doubles with Florida

I'd be more worried about Mueller's age than the park effects on doubles. But they say Mueller has good work habits ...

2005-12-15 10:27:48
13.   kngoworld
Thank you for the great post Jon!
2005-12-15 10:27:56
14.   PadreJeremy
If the rest of the division wasnt so mediocre, the Dodgers are still a pitcher and an OF short of being a contender in the West. I think they will address those needs through trade or free agency and then it will be up to the rest of the division to respond.
2005-12-15 10:31:27
15.   Bob Timmermann
8

If they had called the movie "Chyrsalis" nobody would have gone to see it.

2005-12-15 10:34:34
16.   regfairfield
Small sample size, but Mueller's career line at Dodger stadium is rather concerning: .157/.219/.169 in 87 AB.
2005-12-15 10:35:33
17.   Jon Weisman
16 - You just did T.J. Simers (without the snide part).

Because it is a small sample size, it is not concerning.

2005-12-15 10:37:12
18.   Jon Weisman
If Mueller's line was .357/.419/.569 in 87 AB, there would be no reason to be elated.
2005-12-15 10:39:41
19.   regfairfield
17 Fair enough. How about this. In his career, Mueller's isolated power drops 80 points away from Fenwat.
2005-12-15 10:40:00
20.   regfairfield
*Dang it, Fenway.
2005-12-15 10:44:20
21.   King of the Hobos
Jon Garland appears available, as Bob points out in the Griddle. The White Sox are about the only team where Jasons Phillips and Repko serve as upgrades (over Widger and Timo Perez). Maybe they would take them if we included a pitching prospect? Maybe Colletti can convince Williams that Tiffany is a good replacement for Haigwood and Gonzalez. I can dream...

But seriously, would any of you be interested in Garland? More importantly, would Colletti be interested?

2005-12-15 10:44:57
22.   greenchris
9 - "Ned has signed a number of injury-prone guys"

Not sure I would classify Furcal and Mueller as injury proned. Alomar is a back-up/coach so I won't consider him. Furcal has missed significant game time once in his career (2001). Mueller has had some injuries, but not sure I would classify him as injury proned (i.e. Drew who has played more than 135 games once in his career). So far I think Ned has done a good job. I'll wait to give my final assesment until he fills the outfield & SP void.

Not sure how he's going to address the outfield situation. I really don't like Sanders or Lofton. You could take a risk on a player whom I would consider injury proned in Garciaparra, but with an outfield of Garciaparra & Drew we'd be lucky if they played together in 100 games in 06.

As for pitching help...Jon wrote something around Thanksgiving about an innings eater. I like Brett Tomko. With the pitchers available, I would hate to have the Dodgers locked into another overpaid #3 starter. Tomko is cheap, has a solid history at Dodger Stadium, has never had any significant injuries, and will get you 200+ innings per year. I posted analysis around Thanksgiving comparing him to Weaver, and their numbers were very similar...Just an idea as I would hate for the Dodgers to get locked into another $9 million per year contract on the pitchers remaining on the FA market.

2005-12-15 10:49:51
23.   alex 7
Didn't Gagne go 1-2-3 with a few strikeouts the inning AFTER injuring his arm? I'm confident that the guy knows how to pitch well enough to be an outstanding closer even if he comes back at 80-90%.
2005-12-15 10:49:59
24.   slackfarmer
12 Both Turner Field and Fenway are neutral to positive for doubles and triples, and Dodger Stadium is a big negative. James reports 3 year average indexs (100 being neutral, above favors hitter) of 2B-96 & 3B-104 for Turner, 2B-128 & 3B-86 for Fenway, with 2B-87 & 3B-40 for Dodger Stadium. Like Dodger Stadium, Turner is a balanced field with righties and lefties performing comparably. Green monster and all, Fenway is not very balanced or symetrical. It favors righties in average and HRs, and lefties in average, but it punishes lefties homeruns.

Comparing these park factors and the type of players involved (Furcal-fast, Mueller-not so much), I suspect that Dodger Stadium will hurt Furcal only somewhat, but Mueller more so. In other words, Furcal's doubles may well have more to do with his speed, but Mueller may have really benefited from Fenway.

One more note on handedness. Both Furcal and Mueller are switch hitters. Furcal's splits aren't too far apart , but Mueller has a much better split as a lefty -- even with Fenway's help for righties (3 year average OPS: .884 as LHB and .785 as RHB). Given this and his injury concerns, it might make sense to platoon him. Unfortunately Aybar has similar splits and A. Perez is gone, but that's water under the bridge now. Maybe when Laroche is called up he can platoon with Mueller.

2005-12-15 10:52:25
25.   dzzrtRatt
5 I've heard that Nomar, if he came here, would be stationed in the outfield.

Great summary, Jon. But I think everyone here is spitting into the wind if we think that repeated incantations of the stats so clearly recommending a Choi/Saenz platoon will penetrate the skulls of either Mr. Ned, or the bigger-megaphone baseball scribes and radio-talkers. Choi is in their sights, and if Colletti doesn't take him down with one shot, they'll rule this off-season a flop. And Mr. Ned knows it.

Choi needs to hire Sitrick.

2005-12-15 10:53:42
26.   Jon Weisman
24 - I know all that - I'm just suggesting that when it comes down to one player, the reduction of doubles might not be that important.
2005-12-15 10:55:17
27.   D4P
24
Regarding ballpark symmetry: does anyone else ever stop and think how bizarre it is that baseball fields do not have standardized dimensions? Can you imagine, for example, footballs fields ranging from 50 to 150 yards in length, or basketball rims ranging from 5 to 15 feet in height?
2005-12-15 10:56:38
28.   Jon Weisman
25 - Colletti said Wednesday that first base is a low priority. He might make a move there, but he indicated that the outfield and pitching were bigger issues.

And honestly, I think we're past the point of the status of Choi making or breaking the offseason in the eyes of the press. In their eyes, the Dodgers have solved their GM problem, their Bradley problem, their third base problem, improved at shortstop. They still may not love us, but there's no way they call this a flop.

2005-12-15 10:56:42
29.   student of the game
24 Slack, have you seen any park numbers from last year? I haven't seen any. However, I imagine that Dodger stadium has become much more double and triple friendly since the remodeling.
2005-12-15 10:57:02
30.   Jon Weisman
27 - Not only can I imagine it, it sounds cool.
2005-12-15 10:57:28
31.   blue22
27 - Hockey rinks have different dimensions (though admittedly the same shape).
2005-12-15 10:58:27
32.   slackfarmer
22 Your right to question my previous statement that "Ned has signed a number of injury-prone guys". It's probably more acurate to say that given the guys Ned has signed AND RETAINED, injuries are a major concern. If you look at the guys he is rumored to have made offers to, it is only more concerning, but we should wait for those to materialize before passing judgment.

BTW, how do you bold or underline text when commenting? I would have much rather done either than the all caps above.

2005-12-15 11:03:21
33.   greenchris
32 - I agree. Garciaparra, Sanders, and Lofton aren't exactly noted for their "perfect attendance". The only rumored FA who wouldn't fit that bill is Damon.
2005-12-15 11:04:29
34.   Shmueli4
Suppose Damon signs with the Dodgers, any thoughts on the lineup? Would Damon bat leadoff and Rafi somewhere in the middle? Rafi 1st and Damon 2??
2005-12-15 11:06:05
35.   molokai
Great writeup Jon. I'm not as afraid of the rotation as most around here. I feel that DJ will build on his season and be a servicable 5th starter while Billingsly hones his craft and takes his job come July. E Jackson should pitch all year in the rotation. OP is going to bounce back.

Hope they put Kuo and Broxton back in the rotation intead of in the bullpen, at least at the beginning of the year in AAA or AA.

Our infield is solid and the best in the West with the best 2nd/SS combo in the NL.

Very worried about the outfield because of the timing. As far as I'm concerned Werth has to be considered a spare part at best because even if he comes back we don't know if his power will come back with him since were dealing with a wrist again. I'm confident that Cruz will give us around an 850 OPS this year. Drew worries me because not only is he rehabbing the shoulder and wrist he is unable to work out so he won't be in peak physical condition by the time he's ready to use his shoulder. His power could suffer and who knows how this will effect his throwing arm. We don't want a popgun in CF. I'd be thrilled if D Young or Guzman could just step in and play LF coming out of ST but I think that is a pipe dream. Sounds like we have offers out to Sanders/Lofton/Nomar and whoever signs 1st will be our starting left fielder. I'd prefer Nomar but he brings his own physical fragility to the table. Sanders looks like he's due for his down year as established by oldbear. Lofton would be serviceble, barely. We might be better off making a deal for an impact outfielder. Or maybe an outfielder that no one realizes is coming off of a solid year like Jay Gibbons and who looks to be able to post an 850 OPS in 2006.

2005-12-15 11:07:55
36.   slackfarmer
29 Your can find 2005 park factors in James 2006 handbook or on ESPN here: http://tinyurl.com/2eot2.

James takes out interleague games, but I'm not sure if ESPN does (I doubt it). So I think James factors are probably more accurate. The 2005 number aren't all that different from the 3 year average, and it's hard to tell if any differences are a result of changes in the park or just the typical randomness that plagues small sample sizes.

My bet is that the changes at DS make it more hitter friendly overall. So the relative disadvantage of 2B and 3B would remain. Should decrease foulouts, and increase all types of hits, walks and strikeouts.

2005-12-15 11:11:48
37.   Penarol1916
You know, a lot of people seem to be really happy with the job that Colletti is doing, but I remain fairly ambivalent, he has addressed need at 3rd base, but to me, he hasn't done anything about the two biggest needs, Starting pitching and the outfield. In terms of improving starting pitching I think that he is in the same position as DePodesta last year, sign someone to a ridiculous contract or gut the farm system to get someone and in terms of the outfield the only solution that I liked was Giles, who he tried to get as well. I really don't care for Nomar or Damon as solutions in the outfield (especially given the potential money and or time commitment, I'd almost rather see Sanders or Lofton instead because of that).
To me, what happens to the pitching staff during this offseason will really color my opinion of him.
2005-12-15 11:14:38
38.   molokai
27
I thought that was part of the allure of baseball.

29
Bill James has the latest park effects and your 1/2 right, for one season DS was more neutral for doubles going from a 3 year average of 78 to 87. For triples it went from a 3 year average of 46 to 31.

2005-12-15 11:14:54
39.   MartinBillingsley31
Mark my words, if the dodgers have both houlton and jackson in the rotation we will all be wishing ned got one or 2(depending on billingsley) of weaver,millwood,washburn.

Hopefully nomar signs for leftfield, sanders wants to many years and he will have a down year, damon is just flat out not worth it and no power, lofton would be good as a backup or pinch hitter only.

Laroche platooning with choi at 1b mid season is my prediction, either that or laroche platooning with mueller and guzman platooning with choi mid season.

2005-12-15 11:15:08
40.   D4P
37
I agree with most of what you said, although in Ned's defense, his options with respect to the pitching staff don't seem very attractive. Like you said: either sign someone to a ridiculous contract or gut the farm system. The other option is to rely on the players already on the roster, which doesn't look all that great either.
2005-12-15 11:16:44
41.   D4P
38
Yeah, I know baseball asymmetry is generally accepted as part of the quirkiness and "allure" of baseball. But it's still pretty weird when you think about it.
2005-12-15 11:17:25
42.   Jon Weisman
37 - You might just wait to see what happens when his offseason is done.

Regarding the outfield, you only offer him one solution and you acknowledge that he tried to get him.

Regarding pitching, like you said, we'll see.

My point is, your ambivalence isn't much different from other people's "being really happy," except that those other people are happy with what he's done so far. I don't know how many people would be really happy with him if he considered his work done.

Of course, there are those who are just happy he hasn't torn up the farm system.

2005-12-15 11:17:33
43.   slackfarmer
37 I think the big advantage Colletti has over Depo is that the farm arms are much closer to being ready. Houlton will like go from shaky in 2005 to serviceable in 2006. Jackson could well get it together enough to stay on the rotation, and Billingsly could be ready for a mid-season injury call up.
2005-12-15 11:18:25
44.   Jacob L
38 If I can entertain the fantasy for a moment that Ned cares what we think . . .

Maybe this is a two-fold pr strategy. Please the mainstream types by the stuff Jon mentioned, jettison Bradley, sign Mueller etc. At the same time, scare the bejesus out of us with rumored Snow, Soriano, Lofton flirtations, prospect deals that don't happen.

That way he gets credit from one group for the things he did do, and from the other group for the things he didn't do.

That'd be nice. Forgive the insanity. I haven't slept much lately.

2005-12-15 11:18:32
45.   Curtis Lowe
What OF prospects do we have that would make a 5yr Damon offer seem soo horrible?

Also what would the WSox want for Garland?

2005-12-15 11:19:05
46.   bigcpa
Unless it's a coincidence, it certainly appears Mr. Ned has a preference for a certain statistical profile.

Mueller .295/.369/.430
Furcal .284/.348/.429
--------------------
Nomar .283/.320/.452
Damon .316/.366/.439
Lofton .335/.392/.420

2005-12-15 11:20:25
47.   MartinBillingsley31
43
I think a bigger advantage that ned has vs depo is that the position player prospects are closer to being ready, guzman and laroche could step in this season instead of AAAA guys like repko,edwards,myrow.
2005-12-15 11:21:21
48.   scanderbeg
Boras' clients respective '05 seasons:

Millwood: K/9 - 6.84, BB/9 - 2.44, VORP - 52.3, IP_GS - 6.4

Washburn: K/9 - 4.77, BB/9 - 2.59, VORP - 48.8, IP_GS - 6.1

Weaver: K/9 - 6.31, BB/9 - 1.73, VORP - 28.4, IP_GS - 6.6

Other "options":

Garland: K/9 - 4.68, BB/9 - 1.91, VORP - 50.1, IP_GS - 6.9

Contreras: K/9 - 6.77, BB/9 - 3.30, VORP - 41.5, IP_GS - 6.4

Houlton: K/9 - 6.28, BB/9 - 3.63, VORP - 1.0, IP_GS - 5.5

[Small Sample Size Warning!]
E. Jackson: K/9 - 4.08, BB/9 - 5.34, VORP - -4.2, IP_GS - 4.4

2005-12-15 11:22:05
49.   D4P
45
What OF prospects do we have that would make a 5yr Damon offer seem soo horrible?

What has Damon done that makes him attractive? His career OPS is less than Cruz Jr.'s.

46
Ned said soon after being hired that he was moving away from an emphasis on power to an emphasis on speed and athleticism.

2005-12-15 11:22:31
50.   molokai
39
I'd be more worried if we didn't have Penny/Lowe/OP as the 1st 3 starters. All were trying to do is fill in the 4th and 5th starters until Billingsly is ready. We don't need to spring big money for lackluster free agents. If Weaver wants to sign a one year deal in arbitration then I'm all for it but I wouldn't touch him for a 4/5 year deal. We have to much pitching coming up to be splurging silly money on pitchers for long term deals. Same with Millwood. Washburn blows and I don't understand the interest. His ERA in 2005 was a mirage and he'll never see a sub 4.00 ERA again. Flyball pitchers with a Dominance < then 5.00 are rarely successful. His dominance has fallen from a peak of 6.1 to a low of 4.8 last year.
Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2005-12-15 11:23:20
51.   King of the Hobos
45 I'm guessing prospects, as they think they're fine at every position. Maybe a reliever or 4th OF (their current 4th OF is Timo Perez)
2005-12-15 11:24:39
52.   Jon Weisman
44 - I do think Colletti is trying to reconcile some PR-conscious moves with some slightly bolder, less mainstream moves. I don't necessarily think that he's flirting with Snow to scare us. My hunch (word of the day) is that Colletti is just low-balling some of these guys to see if they'll bite on a cheap contract. Hence, he has shown interest without being that interested. To this point, I think it's pretty clever.

But again, we're not done yet.

2005-12-15 11:29:45
53.   scanderbeg
52 - I hope you're right. I agree that Mr. Ned has a clever approach. My biggest concerns when he was chosen was his player analysis, but I think that I was a little paranoid and reactionary at first.
2005-12-15 11:30:39
54.   Penarol1916
42. My ambivalence stems from the fact that I just don't think that there is much that he can do, that's why I'm neither happy nor unhappy, he hasn't done anything terrible, and outside of avoiding doing terrible things, he hasn't done anything great either.
My whole issue with the pitching is that I don't expect a whole lot because the solutions that I see are limited and of the pick your poison variety, it's the same with the outfield, unless he does something incredibly stupid, I won't think any less of him, but for me to be happy that he is our GM versus an average GM, he'd have to do something astounding to fix either of our holes, which I hope happens, but I won't be disappointed in him if it doesn't.
To me, his biggest accomplishment so far is that he isn't as bad as some posters on here feared he would be.
2005-12-15 11:32:54
55.   Jon Weisman
37/42 - I think your ambivalence has less to do with Colletti specifically than with life as a Dodger fan in December 2005.
2005-12-15 11:33:24
56.   Jon Weisman
That should be 37/42/54 in 55.

Hike.

2005-12-15 11:35:49
57.   Colorado Blue
53 - Honestly, I do not think Ned was hired for his player analysis as much as deal-making capabilities. I think the Dodgers all ready had a strong player anaylsis group. Frank really wanted a more media-schmoozing, deal savvy type for the lead role. My guess is that Ned is a smart guy and takes input from the other "3 Heads" and makes a more informed decision.

But as Jon has pointed out, we'll see...

2005-12-15 11:38:20
58.   Jon Weisman
57 - That's also a compelling theory.
2005-12-15 11:40:15
59.   Dark Horse
49--This is the sort of argument that loses me somewhat. Yes, Damon is an overrated player (greatly overrated, thanks ESPN) and a 5 year deal would be too long, but he remains better than Cruz--no, really--and would as such constitute an "upgrade." Not the right upgrade necessarily, but one nevertheless. I wouldn't be reflexively horrified if we signed him, but the likelihood of that remains pretty slim anyway.

I'm alright with Colletti, as Jon says, so far.

2005-12-15 11:42:46
60.   Penarol1916
55. No, I'm just very cautious about forming an opinion about these types of things and ambivalence will reign until he does something to wow me, just like I was ambivalent about DePodesta for a while.
2005-12-15 11:43:02
61.   Colorado Blue
59 - I'm ok with signing Damon... for 3 years.
2005-12-15 11:43:35
62.   molokai
49
Hey if Ned wants to splurge on Damon without taking any salary away from anywhere else would you really care. If he has to move Kent or Drew to make the deal then it is a no brainer no, but if he was to just add Damon I'd be happy with it. He will probably be effective for at least 3 of the 5 years of the deal. Or maybe Ned will get creative again and offer 3 years for 40 mill.

He was 2nd in baseball with 394 putouts in CF
Bill James gives a range factor of 2.93 which is 4th best in baseball. BP had him as a plus CF until 2005.

His translated historical numbers from BP are
288/355/438

He's had only one bad year in a long career and that was in Oakland which I guess could be the reason for the bias against him since so many DT posters are Oakland fans.

He's does have a popgun for an arm-big negative

His splits are excellent as he one of the few LHH who can actually hit LHP.

He's amassed 600 plus at bats six years in a row.

A lineup of
Damon
Furcal
Drew
Kent
Cruz
Choi
Mueller
Navarro

would be impressive.

2005-12-15 11:44:16
63.   blue22
59 - That's the silver lining in any potential Damon deal. Grossly overpaid or not, he'd be an asset in the lineup this year.

And, hey, it's not my money.

2005-12-15 11:44:49
64.   Colorado Blue
61 - Because he has a cool beard, that's why.
2005-12-15 11:47:11
65.   bigcpa
50 I'm with you. Washburn, Millwood and Garland were #1,7 and 10 in the majors in FIP ERA minus actual ERA, i.e. buyer beware. In the case of Washburn and Garland it's the low K rate. Silva and Marquis are in there for the same reason. Millwood was a run lucky for reasons unknown to me. Of the FA bunch I like Tomko for 2 years.
2005-12-15 11:47:48
66.   Jon Weisman
I think Jose Lima is still available.
2005-12-15 11:49:12
67.   Sam DC
Nice sumup Jon. Funny how crummy things looked in November and how reasonable they seem know. Now, I for one (and I realize I'm not just one on this) am still pretty appalled at how DePodesta was treated, and I don't plan on warming to the McCourts (let alone a certain columnischke) anytime too soon after that. But I sure am looking forward to Spring . . .
2005-12-15 11:49:58
68.   Dark Horse
63--Well, this is the other aspect of it too, right? They're not our pennies to count. And if indeed we're going to retain a young nucleus to build around in the near-term future (and not be the O's or the Mets, throwing money at holes to create new ones,) it's OK to splurge a little. Why the Furcal signing seems a plus not a negative. But five years would make me right nervous.

Too though, anything that suggests McCourt mightn't be all about the payroll squeeze after all (though I think by now there's some evidence the "McCheap" thing is a misnomer) gladdens me besides. It doesn't absolve him of other idiocies, but it suggests we might live through this.

2005-12-15 11:55:20
69.   greenchris
65 - I'm with you as about Tomko. I prefer Tomko over Lima. He's a solid #4 starter. Last year's stats are VERY misleading. Giants bullpen blew a lot of leads for him, he could have easily had a .500 record. I tried to find my analysis where I compared Tomko & Weaver. They were very similar, and Tomko can be had for 2 years at 3 Mil per.
2005-12-15 11:57:27
70.   Sam DC
Warning: Random hijacking of the thread

I wonder if folks have any interest in floating/exchanging holiday gift ideas, esp. for spouses/partners/SOs/girlfriends, whatever. My thought was that if people offered up any particular home runs they have hit over the years, then we all might find a way to get some extra credit here. Most of my good gifts tend to be one offs -- tickets to something, or a stay overnight somewhere cool, a childhood photo recovered and framed, so I don't have too much to offer, but I'll start:

I did great a few years ago with the DVD box set of My So Called Life. The show lasted just one season, so you get the whole thing and it's not too expensive, and for a mid to late thirty-something lady, it strikes some pretty good chords. For me it was funny, I never watched the show originally, and I expected to identify with the high schoolers, but ended up identifying -- sort of -- with the parents. Yikes.

Another hit took a little more work: I found a recipe for a dessert she really likes (cheesecake brownies, but any recipe would work). Bought all the ingredients and a quality baking pan, and got matching stupid chefs hats for her and our son, and then gave it to both of them as a thing to do together.

Another hit was nice pajamas from Nordstroms. Hard to go wrong there.

2005-12-15 11:57:52
71.   Jon Weisman
69 - I was joking about Lima. Do I need to say that I was joking about Lima?
2005-12-15 12:00:48
72.   greenchris
Whew, you scarred me Jon!
2005-12-15 12:03:19
73.   D4P
70
Bought all the ingredients and a quality baking pan, and got matching stupid chefs hats for her and our son, and then gave it to both of them as a thing to do together.

Meanwhile, you were in watching football...I like it...

2005-12-15 12:03:51
74.   D4P
72
Whew, you scarred me Jon!

Hopefully not for life...

2005-12-15 12:04:41
75.   regfairfield
Going back to the post, I'm curious what your definition of solid is. For example, if you look at MLVR amongst first basemen, going by last years numbers, a Choi/Saenz platoon finishes behind the following players who are likely to start at first this year:

Lee, Pujols, Delgado, Clark, Helton, Giambi, Berkman, Teixiera, Howard, Nick Johnson, Sexson, Konerko, Shelton, Casey, Overbay, Dan Johnson.

A couple of players are likely to fall off this list (Clark mainly) but there are also a couple who will come up (Morneau). Cost is a big factor here, but is having the 16th best first baseman really solid?

2005-12-15 12:05:19
76.   Curtis Lowe
Please dont mention Tomko reading that name makes my eyes bleed. In fact typing it has made my fingernails recede.
2005-12-15 12:05:47
77.   Linkmeister
70 Well, riffing off the "old photo" idea, someday I'd like to convert old 8mm film to DVD. We have about 30 reels of old home movies that would be fun to have in DVD format (I still have the projector, but I hesitate to try to make it work). Last I looked it was ~$100 to have it done, so for me it would be a long-term project.
2005-12-15 12:07:13
78.   Jon Weisman
75 - You could argue with me about it, but I was looking at the NL.
2005-12-15 12:07:20
79.   bigcpa
Jon- Shouldn't Furcal's $4M signing bonus go against 2006 payroll? I know there are various definitions of payroll, but I'd prefer to look at out-of-pocket cash. That would put us at $90M and climbing.
2005-12-15 12:07:26
80.   Johnson
71
You were clearly joking about Lima. The only thing I was wondering about was if the Lima comment was a snide comeback to suggestions of getting Tomko or just sort of general inanity.

For the record, if Tomko could in fact be had for a year at 3.5 million (or maybe two years at 6), I'd be pretty happy with him as our fourth starter. Seems like a no-brainer.

2005-12-15 12:07:55
81.   greenchris
74 - You scared me too...Damn Jon, wish you had spell check on this thing!
2005-12-15 12:09:23
82.   greenchris
Tomko can be had for less than $3.5 mil per year. Rangers offered him $2.2 per year and he was heavily considering it. I am pretty confident he can be had for $3 mil per year, 2 year deal
2005-12-15 12:11:22
83.   regfairfield
78 In the NL, the platoon would be 9th, assuming a major tumble from Clark. I think I'm just arguing semantics about solid.
2005-12-15 12:13:45
84.   JJoeScott
No matter that we disagree on Choi, you had me ROFL with the Alomar entry! Too good!
2005-12-15 12:14:39
85.   natepurcell
these are the current outfielder we have that will probably be on the big league club at some point next year:
jd drew
jose cruz
ricky ledee
jayson werth
jason repko
cody ross
andre ethier
delwyn young
joel guzman

the remaining decent outfielders on the market:
damon
jacque jones
reggie sanders
kenny lofton
nomar
preston wilson
matt lawton
juan encarnacion
jeromy burnitz

both lists arent pretty. Should we try and give some 1 yr deals to guys like wilson, lawton, encarnacion, burnitz, lofton, nomar and sanders and see if we can catch lightening in a bottle?

2005-12-15 12:15:13
86.   Curtis Lowe
If your going to settle for Tomko why not just thrown EJ into the 5 spot and put DJ in the 4th? When is Derek Thompson going to be healthy?
2005-12-15 12:15:19
87.   Jon Weisman
79 - It has.

Furcal gets a $5 million signing bonus and $4 million salary for 2006, $13 million in 2007 and 2008, and a deferred payment of $4 million in 2009, according to the Daily News.

http://www.dailynews.com/dodgers/ci_3282106

2005-12-15 12:15:57
88.   natepurcell
i hate saying this, but encarnacion may look like the best value outside of nomar on that list.
2005-12-15 12:17:23
89.   Doug N
Here's some food for thought:
How far away were the Dodgers from winning the division last year? Well I count 19 blown saves as a team. Let's say a healthy Gagne is good for 75% of those; call it 14. Yet they only finished 11 out. Is it possible that the Dodgers were literally one player (Gagne) away from winning the division in 2005?
2005-12-15 12:17:55
90.   JJoeScott
[65] An aside on Washburn: Who in the Angels organization did he tick off? Stoneman, on the radio this week, said all decisions to cut ties to free agents are tough ones, then said really nice things about Paul Byrd, said Washburn will pitch somewhere else (I'm not paraphrasing - that's all he said), and then spent two minutes praising and wishing love to Bengie Molina. Odd.
2005-12-15 12:19:09
91.   regfairfield
89 Are these blown saves in the ninth? Or are these saves blown when Carrarra gives up a jack in the 6th?
2005-12-15 12:22:01
92.   Sam DC
By the way Jon, I see a little Ken is starting to rub off on you with the ERIC GAGNE thing. Hold on to your hats everybody . . .
2005-12-15 12:22:39
93.   Doug N
91: Dont know, I just looked at the Dodgers stats and subtracted saves from save opps. My point was that the Dodgers weren't as bad in 2005 as it felt.
2005-12-15 12:24:24
94.   regfairfield
93 Now that I think about it, it must be all blown saves. Weren't the Dodgers like 70 and 1 when leading after eight innings?

I definately recall Yhency giving up several home runs in tie games, however.

2005-12-15 12:24:26
95.   JJoeScott
[93] Uh ... not be a contrarian, but, yes, they were as bad as it feld. The division was horrible.
2005-12-15 12:24:26
96.   Penarol1916
My wife and I never buy presents for each other for anything, we just take the kids out and have them pick out stuff to buy for the other no matter how silly it is. My wife ended up sewing quilts and bags for my mom and sister, but that had more to do with the fact that our youngest racked up over $40,000 in medical bills after insurance.
2005-12-15 12:24:49
97.   Brendan
70

Candlesticks make a nice gift.

2005-12-15 12:28:01
98.   JJoeScott
Maybe a place-setting or maybe a silverware pattern.
2005-12-15 12:28:55
99.   underdog
Great write-up Jon. Not to sound like a sycophant, but I agree with everything you wrote. I like Choi and am hoping he shows the Dodgers what he's capable of next year. But I wouldn't mind seeing Loney come of age, too/instead.

We really do need to figure out the OF and the starting rotation and then I'll feel pretty darned good about our chances. The SP could indeed be solved more internally (with the young 'uns) then externally (where the choices are pretty thin and over priced), but those guys, at least one of them, have to show they're ready in Spring. Broxton has a world of talent but I'm not so sure he can be a starting pitcher yet - needs to learn to balance control in a longer game a bit better. (Hey, where does Chuck Tiffany stand in all this? Still another year away? No longer a prospect?)

I also agree with Curtis re: Tomko. Let us not go there, lest we give ourselves severe stomach pains.

And as much as I want to solve our OF, I hope Damon isn't part of it, at least not long term.

2005-12-15 12:29:06
100.   Sam DC
Good lord Penarol, how awful. I hope all is/becomes well for your little one (not to mention your pocketbook).
Show/Hide Comments 101-150
2005-12-15 12:29:08
101.   jasonungar05
and uh, maybe you could find out where she's registered and maybe a place-setting or maybe a silverware pattern.
2005-12-15 12:29:24
102.   Brendan
90

Washburn was like Paulie, always had something to say in the newspaper. especially vocal around the almost strike a while back. Plus he is a Boras client and Stoneman is no fan of Boras.

2005-12-15 12:29:26
103.   Sam DC
Does anyone know where we can get a live rooster?
2005-12-15 12:29:27
104.   jasonungar05
damn, too slow again.
2005-12-15 12:33:18
105.   Jon Weisman
99 - Tiffany was in A ball last year, so a little patience needed there.
2005-12-15 12:35:20
106.   natepurcell
Hey, where does Chuck Tiffany stand in all this? Still another year away? No longer a prospect?

tiffany will start the year in AA jacksonville. He is a little behind billingsley/broxton/etc.

he needs to learn to stop giving up homeruns and gain more stamina. but he is still very much a prospect.

2005-12-15 12:35:31
107.   Fallout
71. Jon Weisman

I had a hunch that you were kidding.

Hey, I hacked it.

2005-12-15 12:36:23
108.   bigcpa
93 You have to sift through box scores because we may have won several of the games with Blown Saves.
2005-12-15 12:38:06
109.   scanderbeg
85 - I agree w/ Nate. If the Dodgers could get away with a one-year deal to a FA not named Jeromy Burnitz, I would consider that a good short-term fix.
2005-12-15 12:38:26
110.   Blu2
For signing Weaver or possibly even Damon, I wonder if the type contract Depo gave Drew would work? Offer less money than they're asking for 3 or 4 years with an escape clause after the first and/or second year... For instance, offer Damon 5 year/$50 million with the right to opt out after two years. If you want Damon, that is; personally, I'd rather sign Burnitz for 2 years at $6 to $7 mill per; 25 to 30 homers a year, very good defense and can play center if necessary. Burnitz and Nomar, 50 plus homers for 12 to 15 million a year, no long term hassles.
2005-12-15 12:38:55
111.   Jon Weisman
Congrats, Fallout. And by the way, I was going home last night and thinking that it's really cool that you come here, considering how much you challenge what's written. I'm glad you're here to keep me on my toes.
2005-12-15 12:41:05
112.   Robert Daeley
89

I'd say more like two players away: Gagne, and somebody who could throw people out trying to steal second.

2005-12-15 12:48:30
113.   King of the Hobos
Luis E Gonzalez is headed to Seattle along with former Dodger Carvajal for Torrealba. I'm not sure if his chances to stay in Seattle are much better than Colorado
2005-12-15 12:49:40
114.   natepurcell
luis gonzalez is not a big lost. carvajal still hurts :(
2005-12-15 12:50:07
115.   Fallout
102. Brendan
Washburn was like Paulie, always had something to say in the newspaper. especially vocal around the almost strike a while back.

That is what soured me on LoDuca. I didn't like him being traded because good catchers are hard to come by. But, I wasn't sad to hear his mouth leave town. I felt the same way about Brett Butler, even more so. What he did to the replacement players wasn't right.

2005-12-15 12:53:23
116.   Fallout
111. Jon Weisman

Wow. Thanks

2005-12-15 13:00:55
117.   MikeB
Jon - A really excellent post today. This is kind of balanced, informed analysis we should expect from our local newspapers' sports sections, but don't seem to get anymore (especially now that Ross Newhan has retired).

Overall, I give Mr. Ned good marks for his moves to date. Sorry to see Milton leave but that definitely was not a decision made on "baseball performance" terms.

I'm still hoping for the best for Hee Seop.

2005-12-15 13:02:46
118.   Eric L
112 It would be interesting to look at the play by play data and see how many of the stolen bases contributed to Dodger losses. There would be quite a bit of work involved but it would be an interesting study.

My initial guess is that it didn't make that big of a difference and the team as a whole would have still sucked.

2005-12-15 13:06:44
119.   blue22
Not sure if there are any Raider fans in here, but sad news from the NFL.

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/5170814

RIP, Darrell Russell

2005-12-15 13:09:39
120.   Robert Daeley
118 It would definitely be interesting. I would guess that it did make a pretty big difference, but that's just from watching games. Like you said, quite a bit of work.
2005-12-15 13:12:56
121.   King of the Hobos
The Twins signed Tony Batista to play 3B...
2005-12-15 13:15:39
122.   Bob Timmermann
The value of the stolen base is another thing that people disagree on. The sabermetric crowds thinks that they are no big deal unless you are safe at a high percentage, while others will tell you that they have unseen effects such as "pressuring the defense".

There is some truth to that I think, but how to measure this pressure is beyond me.

Did the White Sox play well last year because they had a fair amount of stolen bases (by today's standards)? Well, who knows?

2005-12-15 13:15:46
123.   natepurcell
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/news/031002leehr.html

could this man over take choi as the best positional player to come out from korea!?!

2005-12-15 13:23:54
124.   Eric L
120 I should have clarified my "not a big deal stance" a bit more. It was more a big picture sort of thing.

The 2005 Dodgers were a terrible team. We've rehashed the reasons why the team stunk a million times on here.

I'm sure the inability to prevent stolen bases (I'm blaming the pitchers too) hurt the team. However, I don't think it hurt the team as much as injuries, crappy pitching, and having a lackluster offense.

2005-12-15 13:23:56
125.   Eric L
120 I should have clarified my "not a big deal stance" a bit more. It was more a big picture sort of thing.

The 2005 Dodgers were a terrible team. We've rehashed the reasons why the team stunk a million times on here.

I'm sure the inability to prevent stolen bases (I'm blaming the pitchers too) hurt the team. However, I don't think it hurt the team as much as injuries, crappy pitching, and having a lackluster offense.

2005-12-15 13:24:02
126.   Marty
Sam, whatever you do, do NOT get her a copy of "It's a Mad Mad Mad Mad World"
2005-12-15 13:26:23
127.   King of the Hobos
123 Look at the date. The Dodgers actually were interested in him when he became a FA, but he went to Japan instead
2005-12-15 13:29:23
128.   Penarol1916
100. Thanks, the little guy is fine, just a few problems right after he was born, now he is practically as big as his 2 year old brother. Financially, we'll be fine by the middle of next year. I blame our pediatrician who made us switch insurance to stay with her and that insurance just didn't cover as much.
2005-12-15 13:32:37
129.   D4P
128
I blame our pediatrician who made us switch insurance to stay with her and that insurance just didn't cover as much.

How nice of her.

2005-12-15 13:33:24
130.   Jon Weisman
I'm glad things are looking upbeat, Penarol. It can be such a nightmare.
2005-12-15 13:38:23
131.   Steve
Female : "It's A Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World" :: Dodger Fan : JT Snow
2005-12-15 13:39:46
132.   MikeB
126. Hhhmmm. That's my sister-in-laws all-time favorite movie. She gave it to my wife for Christmas a few years back.
2005-12-15 13:42:12
133.   underdog
131 And you could almost reverse those and have it still make sense.

(ruining the joke by explaining it: women in the bay area went ga-ga over Snow for years)

2005-12-15 13:43:44
134.   Eric L
133 The women of the OC (and I assume other parts of Southern CA) went ga-ga over Snow while he was an Angel.
2005-12-15 13:44:45
135.   Midwest Blue
119 - Russell is a very sad story. So much potential flushed down the drain.
2005-12-15 13:45:09
136.   underdog
True. Another reason not to sign him. (Besides what I hope is a limit on # of ex-Giants that can play in LA)
2005-12-15 13:50:09
137.   Penarol1916
129. Well she has all the market power, she could decide not to take anymore HMO's, who beat doctors up over the price they'll pay you, and work solely with PPO's, which will let the doctors bill what they want, and I don't think she lost many patients.

130. Thanks, I know what you mean, my cousin just had twins and for one of them they are just waiting for her to die, a very sad story. We're debating bringing the 8-year old when we go to visit them on Saturday.

2005-12-15 13:53:42
138.   Purple Hippopotamus
Sam,

If you're really looking for a live rooster, then Brookville Market on Connecticut Avenue in Cleveland Park is as close are you're gonna get. Pam the butcher really gets 'em fresh (there's always Union Meat at Eastern Market). As far as non-edible yet practical gifts go, Rodman's, also on Connecticut but between Tenleytown and Friendship Heights, has a basement full of pots, pans, and other random culinary devices. They've also got quite the international candy selection!

2005-12-15 13:58:45
139.   blue22
136 - We've got a nice collection of ex-Braves going as well with Drew, Furcal, Odalis Perez, and Grady Little, with Reggie Sanders and Kenny Lofton lingering.
2005-12-15 14:02:04
140.   Steve
What could be a better christmas present than the knowledge that Frank Robinson is coming back?
2005-12-15 14:06:16
141.   Fallout
136. underdog

The limit is 25.

2005-12-15 14:07:02
142.   Sam DC
138 Before you start to worry about me, it was a bull durham thing.
2005-12-15 14:10:19
143.   caseybarker
119-
Wasted talent. Any word on Barrett Robbins?
2005-12-15 14:12:37
144.   Sam DC
140 Well, I'm sure he and Soriano will get along just swell.
2005-12-15 14:13:22
145.   Robert Daeley
142 See I was thinking it was a Major League thing.

"Cerrano's looking for some extra power for tonight. He's looking to sacrifice a live chicken. Man, we can't have people puking in the locker room before the game!"

2005-12-15 14:18:35
146.   Sam DC
140 Damon Buford's father apparently will not be returning as the team's first base coach.
2005-12-15 14:27:37
147.   OaklandAs
122 While the White Sox portrayed themselves as a "small-ball" team, they relied more on the Home Run than almost everyone else. For the season, 42.8% of their runs came from Home Runs, which put them 4th in MLB, and well above the average of 36.8%. They did steal a lot of bases (or at least Podsednik did), but that isn't what carried their offense.
2005-12-15 14:30:30
148.   Sam DC
ESPN has a rumor up behind the insider firewall titled "Damon to Angels?"
2005-12-15 14:38:09
149.   Curtis Lowe
148-From what I can see on the ESPN site the Damon to angels is just as much a rumor as Damon to Dodgers. What I did see though while browsing is that according to Steve Phillips the Dodgers are in need of a catcher and Bengie molina would feel that hole. I wasnt aware of the need for another catcher.
2005-12-15 14:39:59
150.   Bob Timmermann
You folks have removed the imperative for me to post National themed links on the Griddle when I get home.

How will I be able to carry on my vendetta against Frank Robinson?

Or to quote Sideshow Bob's son, "Vendetta! Vendetta! Vendetta!"

Show/Hide Comments 151-200
2005-12-15 14:41:03
151.   Jon Weisman
Bob, a key lesson to learn is that not everyone reads the comments. You post and link away.
2005-12-15 14:42:35
152.   Bob Timmermann
151
Vendetta! Vendetta! Vendetta!
2005-12-15 14:45:50
153.   Sam DC
You have to Bob, because I really can't believe you can stand it when the Griddle drifts down towards the sidebar basement over there . . .
2005-12-15 14:46:21
154.   blue22
149 - the Damon to angels is just as much a rumor as Damon to Dodgers.

Less so in fact, as at least he's coming out to meet with the Dodgers. The only mention of the Angels is a sentence at the end of the blurb, that Stark is reporting the "Angels may be interested in Damon". Juicy!

2005-12-15 14:49:30
155.   Bob Timmermann
There will be a flurry of posts tonight.

Then a dormant period around Christmas. Unless someone can explain to me how I tell a 6-year old who is new to the country what a blog is. The kid probably doesn't even know what baseball is.

2005-12-15 14:51:27
156.   Sam DC
I'm thinking about making an offer to Johnny Damon too. I've been traveling a lot for work, and the yard is just a scandal. And sometimes, my wife and I could use someone to watch one kid so we can both take the other kid out for something special. I'm thinking I could go to 5 years, but the average dollar figure is going to drop off some from the reported offers.
2005-12-15 14:54:14
157.   Curtis Lowe
156- How sad, you take the good kid out for a fun night of funnery and you force the bad one to many nights of Johnny Damon.

Thats just wrong. You could always tivo the Johnny Damon beard TV commercial put it on loop and leave the little runt in front of the TV.

2005-12-15 14:55:06
158.   alex 7
Is it too late to joke about Molina "feel"ing holes? re: 149

Bob, how long has the 6-year old been with you? I remember you mentioning him a month or two ago.

Does he speak any English? Figured baseball and the Dewey decimal system would have been the first two things he learned.

2005-12-15 14:56:03
159.   Dello
when thinking of our need for another OFer, I cant help but think of how the Braves started last year with Jordan and Mondesi in the lineup.
2005-12-15 14:56:56
160.   Sam DC
157 Well, it's a five-year deal, so somteimes it's the big kid and the beard, sometimes the little one. It all evens out over time.
2005-12-15 15:03:07
161.   Robert Fiore
It's kind of an interesting strategy, at least as far as Furcal went, offering premium money for a limited number of years. Considering that contracts tend to be backloaded, it can ultimately reduce risk, since the total commitment is lower and the years you're paying for are when the player is younger. I wonder if it will be considered a special policy for an organization with talent in development, or if it will catch on.
2005-12-15 15:04:29
162.   trainwreck
119-
Sad story and a sad ending. I have a hard time though really saying good things about the guy as he was involved with him and his friends raping a woman. It is sad he was not given a chance to makeup for some of the bad he had done in his life.
2005-12-15 15:04:40
163.   regfairfield
159 Except they had Francouer, Johnson, and Langerhans. We have Ethier, Ruggiano, and Delwyn Young.
2005-12-15 15:15:24
164.   Dello
163 - I get your point, but Francouer is only 21 and hadn't really played above A ball and Johnson is 23 and hadn't played above AA. Only Langerhans appeared to have seasoning in the minors. I just think that Ned should take the same approach as Atlanta to fill the hole. just don't fill the hole with horse*!^#
2005-12-15 15:16:50
165.   trainwreck
I wonder what we would have to give up to get Contreras? I would take a season of Contreras at that money. He became a different pitcher part way through the season.
2005-12-15 15:20:34
166.   blue22
I just think that Ned should take the same approach as Atlanta to fill the hole.

Reggie Sanders/Kenny Lofton = Brian Jordan/Raul Mondesi.

Yes?

2005-12-15 15:31:07
167.   sanchez101
166. at least sanders and lofton are coming of productive seasons

163. langerhans had a 267/348/426 line, and Johnson hit 241/334/397, between the two they had about 700 PA. Francoeur hit well, but the other guys werent anything special. I think between that between Young, Guzman, Ethier, and Ruggiano we could get about 750 OPS for ~500 PA. BP's Pecota forcast before the season said Delwyn Young would have a .266 EQA for 2006, and that forcast should improve.

2005-12-15 15:34:47
168.   Dello
166 - not quite, but close. I thought the Brian and Raul combo was some sort of joke last year. but, what do I know. they won the division again. I am intrigued by the idea of Nomar in LF. it scares me to think that he and Drew would be counted on in the outfield every day, but he has huge upside and we could probably get him for a reasonable contract (both $s and length). Nomar and Mia have a house in Manhattan Beach and plenty of cash, so he may be interested in staying in So Cal.
2005-12-15 15:39:48
169.   Midwest Blue
From MLB.com:

"Mueller was reluctant to disclose details of his conversation with Colletti about Little, whether he communicated with Kent or Lowe before choosing the Dodgers or whether he has lobbied free agent outfielder Johnny Damon to follow him to Los Angeles.

"But it sure would be nice if he came to L.A.," Mueller said of Damon."

Hmm...

http://tinyurl.com/7aknh

2005-12-15 15:47:44
170.   Sushirabbit
So do we have any idea who Little's coaches are? I've been wondering about batting and pitching. Those both left, correct? Lett, went to the Pirates, too, I think, does that mean we can upgrade in Bullpen coaching? Does that change how a potential pitcher would look at coming here?
2005-12-15 15:48:19
171.   trainwreck
Damon can not throw the ball 10 feet, that is a problem.
2005-12-15 15:50:10
172.   underdog
Coaches? We don' need no stinkin' coaches!

Sorry... Yes, that should really be the other order of business these days. I'm curious who he'll want. Was anyone retained (besides Manny Mota)? Did they let Tim Wallach go already? Pitching and hitting coaches will be crucial... hope he decides soon...

2005-12-15 15:54:20
173.   Izzy
There are some reports on Fox the Dodgers are willing to go 5 years on Damon, which may move them to the front of the pack. sheesh That's too long. On the Drew contract, I am not sure I have ever heard a sensible logic to it. The only thing I can figure is that it builds a sort of fake "walk year" into the middle of the contract, which may give the player a little incentive. Supposedly this is what they may offer to Damon. I dunno
2005-12-15 15:55:45
174.   trainwreck
Tim Kurkjian on Sportscenter just said he has heard some people say that the Dodgers may be the frontrunners for Nomar just because he is from here.
2005-12-15 15:55:48
175.   Bob Timmermann
158
It's my brother's son and he lives in Michigan. It's his fourth kid. I don't have any kids, which is probably a good thing. I think I do much better as an uncle than I ever could as a father.
2005-12-15 15:57:11
176.   Shmueli4
Bob,

Are you saying that your brother gave you one of his kids because he has 4? :)

2005-12-15 15:58:07
177.   King of the Hobos
174 Supposedly Vic the Brick says he's in LA talking to the McCourts right now. Of course, he has about as much credibility as I do when it comes to rumors
2005-12-15 15:59:02
178.   Jon Weisman
173 - I still don't know why people are looking for a logic beyond, "This is what it took to get Drew signed." People who can't find the logic are only looking at the contract from the team's point of view.

Drew's contract is a compromise between a standard, no-out, five-year contract and no contract at all.

2005-12-15 16:00:57
179.   trainwreck
Come on Nomar, you know you want to return home.
2005-12-15 16:04:08
180.   Bob Timmermann
176

I think I have to take one back after I visit.

The 6-year old doesn't know much English and just started his first formal schooling ever the Monday after Thanksgiving. But he seems to speak Spanish pretty well. And he was able to convey to his mother that he wanted fried plantains.

Anyone with tips on frying plantains correctly can feel free to contact me and I'll pass them along.

2005-12-15 16:05:33
181.   DaveP
177 - If I had the authority, I would impose a "5 minute no posting penalty" on you for using Vic the Brick as a source :)
2005-12-15 16:06:14
182.   blue22
173 - If Drew opts out, he'll have to beat the 3/$33M left on his contract with LA.

Giles signed for 3/$34M, which includes the hometown discount, but he's 3 years older than JD.

Giles had a .325 eqA last year, an OPS of over .900, and a rate2 over 100 (for LF).

Drew had a .322 eqA last year, an OPS of over .900, and a rate2 of 105 (for CF).

Of course, Giles has played in 150 games or more in 5 out of the last 6 years. IF JD stays healthy (135 games+), it could be awfully tempting for him to opt out. Quite a risk on his part, but LA would be rewarded with an MVP-caliber season if Drew is even considering it a year from now.

2005-12-15 16:06:16
183.   Balco
Why do we want Nomar? We should be tradingfor a better outfielder. Dunn sounds good to me.
2005-12-15 16:06:29
184.   underdog
Pop quiz: So the Dodgers are rumored frontrunners for ___.

A) Nomar
B) Johnny Damon
C) Carl Yastremski
D) Ted Williams' frozen head
E) A & B

I give up. Wake me when the OF renovation project is complete.

2005-12-15 16:07:22
185.   Shmueli4
All I know about plantains is that however much they look like a green banana - no matter how long you wait for them to "ripen" you stll can't eat them raw 1st hand knowledge!)
2005-12-15 16:07:47
186.   DaveP
180 - I know how he feels. I'm in Lima, Peru for the month of December and have very limited Spanish skills. Luckily my 8yr old and 6 yr old daughters can interpret for me when necessary.
2005-12-15 16:08:30
187.   Balco
If we get Nomar then we are just settling.
2005-12-15 16:09:41
188.   the swordsman
187-it's "Nomah"
2005-12-15 16:10:34
189.   trainwreck
183-
Because it would take too much to get Dunn as the Reds have no need to trade him after trading Casey, plus he is not the type of player that will age well.
2005-12-15 16:10:35
190.   blue22
187 - "Settling" for the best available player on the market willing to sign for less than 4 years.
2005-12-15 16:10:58
191.   Balco
I would rather sign Sanders or Jeremy B. over Nomar.
2005-12-15 16:11:53
192.   Linkmeister
180 First, pick your plantains. Then, there are three pages worth of fried plantain recipes at this site:

http://tinyurl.com/blb4u

2005-12-15 16:13:09
193.   oldbear
I'd pass on Johnny Damon too. Especially because next year, Andruw Jones is a free agent. I'd rather have all available funds to go after him.

If the Dodgers are that desperate for an impact CF'er, I'd try to talk the Cards into trading Jim Edmonds. Edmonds is older, on the downside of his career. It might not cost as much as Damon.

2005-12-15 16:13:19
194.   King of the Hobos
191 Why Burnitz? So we can relive the misery of trading Victor Diaz for him?
2005-12-15 16:13:40
195.   Linkmeister
One of the many frustrations of my life is not retaining the fluency I gained in Spanish while living in Puerto Rico while attending pre-school and kindergarten there.
2005-12-15 16:14:36
196.   Balco
I believe we should trade Guzman for a corner outfielder. Guzman will just be "another" prospect when he moves to the outfield. We should trade him when his value is high. He is going to be the next Billy Ashley.
2005-12-15 16:14:54
197.   King of the Hobos
193 That Jones myth is false, he's not a FA until after 2007. And he has Boras for an agent
2005-12-15 16:15:24
198.   jasonungar05
179 Nomaaaaah: I used to bullseye womp rats in my T-16 back home. They're not much bigger than two meters.
2005-12-15 16:17:05
199.   Balco
194- If we sign Burnitz maybe would could trade him at the trade deadline to the Mets for Diaz. That sounds sweet.
2005-12-15 16:18:25
200.   Balco
193- I thought Drew was going to play CF.
Show/Hide Comments 201-250
2005-12-15 16:20:08
201.   oldbear
197. Is there a site out there that shows all the players contract information? I need to bookmark it.

With the Cardinals opening a new stadium and Edmonds a fan favorite, I doubt he'd be available. But he's one player I think that could make the Dodgers a pennant contender. Strengthens the Dodgers and weakens the Cards.

2005-12-15 16:20:08
202.   scanderbeg
198 - Arn Tellem talking to Mr. Ned: "You want this, don't you?"
2005-12-15 16:20:09
203.   scanderbeg
198 - Arn Tellem talking to Mr. Ned: "You want this, don't you?"
2005-12-15 16:20:20
204.   Balco
We should just let repko start in LF.
2005-12-15 16:22:04
205.   King of the Hobos
We could get OF help from an unexpected source--Santa Claus

"I asked Santa Claus for another pitcher and another outfielder, and he told me he was going to help me out," said Colletti with a big smile on his face. "Coming here for all the years I did with visiting clubs, I always got the sense that the L.A. Dodgers had a great heart for the community."

2005-12-15 16:22:09
206.   trainwreck
Guzman is a potential 30-40 home run hitter, he is not just another corner outfielder. Frankly he resembles Adam Dunn right now, yet he has time to improve his discipline at the plate.
2005-12-15 16:22:44
207.   bearlurker
Great post Jon.

Gosh, I really don't like any of our options at OF. I suppose I would offer a bunch of them a 1-year deal and see who bites (sounds like what Ned had done?) I sure don't want any of these wounded on anything more than a 1-year deal. Are there any non-tender possibilities on December 20? We may have to make a deal with Texas.

194, Yeah, Victor Diaz sounds pretty good right now.

2005-12-15 16:22:55
208.   blue22
201 - www.hardballdollars.com rules!
2005-12-15 16:23:34
209.   trainwreck
Santa is even older than Julio Franco, but he does solve this beard fetish people have.
2005-12-15 16:23:37
210.   King of the Hobos
201 I use http://www.mlb4u.com/pcontracts.html

204 Why?

2005-12-15 16:23:43
211.   Bob Timmermann
195
From what I know of linguistics and child development, it's nearly impossible to hold on to a second language acquired at a young age unless you are forced to use it everyday. Young kids are like sponges with languages because they're not learning them like we did in high school and reciting sentences. They're just trying to talk to someone and somehow all the grammar rules fall into place.

I always find that amazing. I have a lot of respect for anyone who has learned English as a second language because, face it, it's not an easy language to pick up. The words are pronounced strangely (through, plough, dough, cough), the spelling is weird and the use of prepositions doesn't correspond well to other languages.

2005-12-15 16:28:22
212.   blue22
210 - a. that's an odd site; it provides a lot of detail on the contracts but doesn't look very credible.

b. read through last night's thread and you'll get a glimpse.

2005-12-15 16:34:23
213.   the swordsman
nomah is wicked awesome!!!
2005-12-15 16:35:18
214.   Linkmeister
211 Yeah, we moved to New London, CT after that. Not much use for Spanish there. Now, from there we went to Monterey and then Long Beach, so if I could have held onto it...

I think we should get Lofton. I'm fond of former U of Arizona point guards.

2005-12-15 16:42:50
215.   trainwreck
Read this really interesting article in Rolling Stone about Notorious BIG's murder and it gives one another good reason to not get the LA Times.
2005-12-15 16:42:56
216.   OaklandAs
201 Here is another site for MLB contracts:

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/

2005-12-15 16:44:29
217.   dkminnick
Nice article on Mueller, Click on the "Billy Ballgame" link under the pix. (Sorry, don't know how to do the tinyurl deal, yet).

http://www.bostondirtdogs.com/

2005-12-15 16:44:31
218.   Sensei
211
Bob T, as always you are correct on early language development and acquisition. As a child I lived in Latin America, and I was as fluent as a seven-year-old can be in a second language. We moved back to the States when I was eight, settling in white-bread Kansas City, MO of all places, where my Spanish went completely unused and was lost for all time in very short order. Strangely, I still have dreams filled with Spanish conversations that make perfect sense to my unconscious mind.

Been enjoying this site for months; this is my first post! Very odd.

2005-12-15 16:49:08
219.   underdog
By the way, the Las Vegas 51s will be revamping their web site - the new look debuts on the 19th (Monday). The address is still www.lv51.com.

Perhaps to coincide with what will surely be a revamped, and much improved, lineup next year?

2005-12-15 16:50:25
220.   bill cox
196-Balco,buddy you need to lay off the clear and the cream.It's affecting your ability to judge talent,Joel Guzman is about as much like Billy Ashley as Koy Detmer is like Johnnie Unitas.No comparison.Guzman is a major talent waiting to happen.
2005-12-15 16:54:46
221.   Marty
204 If we start Repko in left field, we are just settling...
2005-12-15 16:56:10
222.   willhite
219 -

I don't suppose the 51's games can be found on the internet, something similar to the Suns. How are we going to keep up with the gang in Vegas next season?

2005-12-15 16:56:59
223.   blue22
222 - Roadtrips, roadtrips, roadtrips.
2005-12-15 16:57:10
224.   Bob Timmermann
214
Steve Kerr played baseball in high school. He's rested up.
2005-12-15 17:12:38
225.   Fallout
184 underdog

Ted Williams' frozen head didn't pass the physical. It was dropped and had a hairline fracture.

2005-12-15 17:13:20
226.   willhite
223 -

My son is already trying to convince me to go to Fresno to see them

2005-12-15 17:20:24
227.   Fallout
225 Fallout

They don't think that it will heal in time for the season.

2005-12-15 17:20:36
228.   King of the Hobos
The Orix Buffaloes have made an offer to Norihiro Nakamura, so I guess he won't get the honor of backing up Laroche or playing SS for the 51s

The Cards have signed Braden Looper to a 3 year deal

2005-12-15 17:21:59
229.   Bob Timmermann
The Buffaloes will have both Nakamura AND Grabowski!

I don't think Softbank or Lotte are going to be losing any sleep.

2005-12-15 17:23:53
230.   underdog
225 D'oh! How many years did we sign it for?

222 Don't know for sure but am hopeful the new site will have a place for listening online. They are currently covered by 1460 in LV: http://foxsportsradio1460.com/home.php
But as a fox affiliate I doubt they let people listen online for free... check the 51s web site next week tho.

2005-12-15 17:27:52
231.   Steve
And, in a strange coincidence, Ted Williams' Frozen Head has the same glazed-over stare as Jason Grabowski.
2005-12-15 17:28:07
232.   King of the Hobos
229 Any chance the Buffaloes are interested in Erickson?
2005-12-15 17:32:14
233.   slackfarmer
205 With that quote I'm finally forced to admit that Mr. Ned is better at PR than Depo.
2005-12-15 17:41:00
234.   scanderbeg
233 - It's been several days, but reading/hearing, "Mr. Ned" has not receded in humor at all.
2005-12-15 17:49:41
235.   slackfarmer
234 Have you seen that show Mr. Ed much? He sounds just like Johnny Cash. In fact, my brother thinks all Johnny Cash records were secretly sung by Mr. Ed.
2005-12-15 18:26:59
236.   Bob Timmermann
235

As a fan of the Man in Black, I respectfully disagree with that assertion about Mr. Ed.

2005-12-15 18:30:51
237.   Slipstream
229--

I don't know, I have a sinking feeling that Grabowski is going to be a superstar in Japan, like Randy Bass. Stranger things have happened. Of course, I can't think of any right now.

2005-12-15 18:47:54
238.   Andrew Shimmin
235- Don't think you can't be tracked down and hanged for saying things like that, just because you post under a pseudonym. You can.
2005-12-15 18:51:04
239.   Andrew Shimmin
Wait, I keep forgetting, is making threats of physical violence against other users kosher, here? Even in the face of such fighting words? Withdraw 238. But, slackfarmer? You're on my list.
2005-12-15 18:57:09
240.   natepurcell
can balco please stop before he really infuriates me.
2005-12-15 18:59:05
241.   D4P
240
Why would someone whose goal is to infuriate people stop before s/he infuriates people?
2005-12-15 18:59:41
242.   natepurcell
re 241

kinda always like your goal the last 2 years?

2005-12-15 18:59:53
243.   D4P
PS: I think Balco is probably DLRF.
2005-12-15 19:00:45
244.   D4P
242
No. My goal is to have fun. I like people to play along, not get upset.
2005-12-15 19:00:58
245.   natepurcell
societasportiva=DLRF?
2005-12-15 19:01:34
246.   Andrew Shimmin
240- When I was a fifteen and the internet was new and exciting (I had a unix shell account, so my surfing was text only; and we LIKED IT that way!), I used to spend hours on end trolling the ESPN soccer message board. It gets boring after awhile, though. After a week, I'd bet.

Also-- I'm glad to see you on the Encarnacion bandwagon. There's still room for plenty more!

2005-12-15 19:02:02
247.   slackfarmer
236, 238 & 239 You-all must not have seen the show. Mr. Ed was an amazing talent.

I was lucky enough to see Johnny in concert once -- at the House of Blues in Chicago. It was one of the best concerts I've ever been to. Simply amazing. Truth be told . . . I didn't see Mr. Ed anywhere.

2005-12-15 19:03:11
248.   natepurcell
it was either get on the carni bandwagon, or face death in the form of an hour long video on repeat of jason phillips rounding the bases.

i value my life!

2005-12-15 19:04:49
249.   D4P
246
(I had a unix shell account, so my surfing was text only; and we LIKED IT that way!)

Slams fist onto desktop...

2005-12-15 19:06:28
250.   Bob Timmermann
For the record, the show was "Mister Ed" and Mister Ed was voice by Allan "Rocky" Lane.
Show/Hide Comments 251-300