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No, Not Nomar at First Base
2005-12-16 19:03
Hee Seop Choi in 2005: .789 OPS with the Dodgers, 110 OPS+ Ricky Ledee in 2005: .778 OPS with the Dodgers, 107 OPS+ Nomar Garciaparra in 2005: .772 OPS with the Cubs, 99 OPS+ Now, Ledee is an injury risk, like Garciaparra. The pair would make an interesting - though hardly dominant - left-field platoon, with Jayson Werth looming in the disabled background. But Choi is younger, healthier and, sorry, more productive than Garciaparra. Choi even had a higher OPS+ in 2004, even including his 2004 floundering in Los Angeles. If the Dodgers' priority is a No. 5 hitter to bat behind Jeff Kent, the combination of Olmedo Saenz (.804 OPS, 113 OPS+) and Choi is a better bet than Garciaparra alone - although certainly Garciaparra could compete with Saenz to be the right-handed platoon partner. But Saenz is already signed for a mere $1 million. Dodger general manager Ned Colletti has said that a change at first base is not a high priority. He also clearly likes to keep his options open. If he's thinking, he's looking at Garciaparra principally as a 120-game starting outfielder/backup infielder.
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I hate the Mueller signing because I don't see what that guy does besides look scrappy that Willie Aybar wouldn't do 90% of for 10% of the price. But at least there I understand the whole "he's a great guy in the clubhouse" mentality we apparently run our team by now. What about Nomar? Doesn't he have vague hints of malcontent about him? Isn't he not a "gamer" (like JD Drew)?
This is so depressing. The Bradley trade was horrible (why throw in Perez?), the Mueller signing ill-advised, the Furcal signing at least defensible, and now Nomar? What's next, Damon for AJ Burnett years and money?
And assuming Izzy does play 2B when he comes back (which I still don't believe entirely), would Colletti really prefer Ledee/Repko? over Choi/Saenz? Or would the plan be to sign Lofton and sit him at some point? At least in that scenario we wouldn't lose much offense when Izzy returns
(yes, I am pointedly kidding; no, I do not think this would be a legitimate way to analyze a player's performance)
The Dodgers are at a crossroads - they can cut payroll, suck it up and wait for the kiddie corps to arrive - or - they can do a few high risk/high reward deals to improve enough on last season to make a run at the West division crown. But, wishing for anything higher would be a miracle on an order even greater than the '59 or '88 teams seasons. And, don't get me wrong here, I love the Dodgers and those two teams are my all-time favorites.
So maybe Colletti looks at the landscape and thinks - I can get us back to 85-90 wins in '06 and '07 and then the kids arrive and we're off to dynasty land. Maybe.
Signing Nomar for lots of $ short-term is a reasonable short-term risk to take. The upside could be substantial. And, if Nomar gets injured, or doesn't hit his weight, well at least he's not blocking a kid for very long - or could get cut - sunk costs and all that accounting stuff.
So I say, lets take a chance - what's the downside? Another 90+ loss season? I honestly don't think the current lineup if it stays reasonable healthy can lose that many again. I believe Ned has got the bus out of the ditch and back on the road. Whether he can get it moving fast enough to use the passing lane is something we'll find out this summer.
So, if I had a dollar for every time I heard someone say "Choi ripped lefties in the minors", I'd have a lot of dollars. However, I have never once seen any of Choi's minor league statistics. Does anyone have those handy, or know where I can find them?
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/C/hee-seop-choi.shtml
Yes, the splits would be nice, but thanks for the stats. Those are pretty impressive.
So, when people talk about his performance vs. lefties in the minors, do you think they're basing their claims on an actual review of the stats, or just repeating some unsubstantiated mantra that has been generally accepted?
Sign 'em to frontloaded extensions, get through their first few free agency years on the cheap, then when they start to slow down in 2007-08 and beyond you have already paid for their best years up front and they can be rotated out in favor of the prospects that may/may not be ready by then.
Is signing a "big name" like Furcal, Nomar, or Damon more important than keeping younger players with more potential upside through their prime years?
I sort of like the idea of having Nomar on the team, but I'm not sure what exactly his role will be. He seems like he's ready for one more big year. But if he isn't playing regularly? He's not exactly a wallflower.
Thus, my preference is for Mr. Ned to pursue the Sanders and/or Lofton options. We need outfielders. They're outfielders.
"Choi has a superb eye and only when badly fooled does the big guy swing at a bad pitch. That said, he has a lot of holes in his swing. Opponents like to bust him with hard stuff just under the hands, and Choi has trouble with most breaking pitches. He has a big uppercut, so when he connects the ball travels a long way. For a young power hitter, Choi is surprisingly comfortable driving a ball the other way. Though he hit better than .300 versus lefthanders in the minors, that success has not translated to the bigs."
Now I am trying to foist Joe Banner on you :)
( the :) means it's a joke. but i was serious in 16, it makes a lot more sense than signing yet another SS)
I think you get into a situation like the Blue Jays did with Eric Hinske when they signed him to a large extension following his ROY in 2002. Really, there is no reason to give guys longer termish type contracts until they approach their arbitration years.
I would guess the Dodgers are not happy with Hochevar's lack of maturity and indecisiveness.
Flip flopping agents by fax at the eleventh hour of a negotiation does not speak well about this young man's ability to handle pressure.
I would think the Dodgers expect a bit more maturity from a college pitcher.
LZ in 07
Thanks
Nearing a decision on where he will play next season, Nomar Garciaparra is believed to be leaning toward accepting a one-year contract to play first base for the Dodgers.
http://tinyurl.com/cqd73
And Rotoworld's take:
Garciaparra has told the team he would be willing to play first base or left field. Left field still might be the choice, mainly because the Dodgers would want to put Jeff Kent at first base after Cesar Izturis returns at midseason. It certainly wouldn't be out of any great fondness for Hee Seop Choi. Dec. 17 -
Nomar is listed by MLB as 6'0", 190 lbs. I don't know where to find his weight numbers for previous seasons, but he has appeared to me as being more of a wiry, speed/power guy, not as a over-muscled power guy.
Are the injuries he has suffered the past two years indicators of steroid use? Wasn't his severe wrist injury attributed to being struck by a pitched ball? The torn groin muscle was caused by an awkward step out of the batters box. That doesn't seem suspicious to my untrained eye. Is it to anyone else?
FYI - Nomar was/is an exceptional athlete. He was a terrific youth and high school soccer player, and might have become a high-level player in that sport, at least at the college level and maybe pro if he wanted to.
Haha my teacher from Korea who's last name also happens to be Choi, was a big Hee Seop Choi fan even though he knows nothing about baseball.
Next Tuesday could be the big day if Nomar signs and Colletti stays quiet. Will Choi be a Dodger on Wednesday? Will Phillips?
I wish we'd get an option for 2007. Something tells me he has a bounce-back year and when we need him to replace Kent for 2007 his asking price gets too steep.
Rick Honeycutt, who pitched in nearly 800 games over 21 seasons in the big leagues, is a strong candidate to become Grady Little's pitching coach. He has been the Dodgers' minor league pitching coordinator for four years.
Free-agent outfielder Kenny Lofton met Friday with Arizona Diamondback officials. Lofton would prefer to sign with the Dodgers and intended to talk to Colletti on Friday night or today.
While the Red Sox have held discussions with agent Danny Horwits about J.T. Snow, Horwitz said that other teams are further along with him.
The Royals signed Doug Mientkiewicz and the Dodgers have other priorities, so it might be that Snow will join the Padres.
Yes, join the Padres. Fine by me, just stay away from LA. If Nomar at 1B meant no Snow, well, then it wouldn't be quite so bad
The Boston Herald says we are one of the remaining teams interested in Seanez.
Now that's where you need to ask why do we need him again.
Mrs. Nomar is retired from that sport and I would be inclined to believe she isn't going back to it. There's not enough money in it for her.
Why must everything be about money?
We're both being self-referential were we?
Mia Hamm doesn't need to play competitive soccer again because she has played about as well in that sport as anyone can. If she came back and tried to play again, she would obviously not be as good. And the only way I think she would consider returning was if someone drove up to her home in Manhattan Beach and parked a dump truck full of money in front of it.
Rumor mill has the Dodgers checking out Gathright again. Just thought I'd mention that so we can get a couple hundred posts about what an idiot Colletti is based on a rumor since that seems to be a great game around here.
a) he has the potential to be a very good #5 hitter based on past performance
b) he will only command a 1 or 2 year contract
c) just the buzz of getting Noomaaaah would put a few extra butts in the seats and sell a few more jerseys
Lofton would be a little redundant since we already signed a leadoff hitter, but he's still a pretty good ballplayer if we can't work anything out with anyone else. Sanders would be my second choice based on his power potential. The line-up right now is mostly full of good patient hitters who will sport good OBPs, what we need now is one more bopper to hit in that 5 spot to make the line-up complete.
Anyone see Seattle's offer to Washburn by the way? $36-38 million over 4 years? I think you can erase him from your wishlist werthgagne31 or saxmarshall31 or whichever players you're 31ing now ;)
molokai: can you elaborate a bit on what you like about Matt Diaz? I'm embarrassed to admit I've never even heard of him. Thanks.
Artest said some of the criticism he has
received has been unfair. Former NBA great Magic Johnson said Artest doesn't deserve a second chance in the NBA.
"It's like saying, 'Magic, should your wife give you another chance?'" Artest said "He's saying Ron Artest should have no more second chances. What's worse -- me saying I want to be traded or you cheating on your wife?"
http://tinyurl.com/92bv8
He was a career minor leaguer in the Tampa Bay organization much like Johnny Gomes except he went to KC last year and only got 89 at bats. He's to old to be a prospect but at AAA he had the following line 371/408/649 for Omaha. He has some speed some power and can hold down a corner OF position. He's no big deal but if we sign Nomar were just looking for insurance in case Drew is not ready for the season. I think if he'd been given at bats he would have had a Werth like 2004 season. Plus he took up catching to help himself stick in the major leagues so he might even be able to be an emergency catcher. Statheads like him, GM's don't.
He is a much better hitter then Jason Repko.
Magic actually said to get an extension Ron would have to prove himself or no one in the NBA is going to give him a deal.
I don't think many people would honestly pick Choi over Nomar. Maybe that's not fair and only because Choi hasn't been given a shot. But regardless at this point I'll take a Nomar with everything to prove over Choi.
Sure I'd rather see Nomar in left and Choi starting at first. But if the team feels that Nomar isn't capable of being the everyday left fielder for injury reasons moving Choi and his very small salary along with a prospect to some AL team for a middle of the rotation pitcher makes sense to me. In the AL he can DH and play 1B and really get that shot that everyone here seems to think he deserves.
Choi doesn't have to prove anything. Look the numbers from last year:
266 341 828 platoon
283 320 772 for the cost of Nomar
That platoon was primarily Saenz & Choi with some Kent and a dash of Phillips, Myrow etc.
Last year we got 31HR and 104RBI. I would guess we could expect about the same considering a decline from Saenz, and more production from Choi due to the stages in their career.
Now consider that the last time Nomar put up numbers like our 1Bmen did last year was 03. It's absolutely crazy to pay more to a guy who is less likely to perform.
I like Nomar, but signing him doesn't make sense to me. Sure, Choi might not be an all-star, but a Choi/Sanez platoon is not the problem with this team. We need outfielders that can hit and some starting pitching. I'm not sure what Nomar does to fix either of those problems.
A trade for a pitcher is another story, and yes, when Nomar was winning batting titles and Choi was still a growing boy, Nomar was better.
You write, "I don't think many people would honestly pick Choi over Nomar. Maybe that's not fair and only because Choi hasn't been given a shot. But regardless ..." My job here is to encourage people to care about making a fair judgment, not give them license to be unfair.
It's not an open and shut case, but the trends are certainly moving in Choi's favor - and clearly that needs to be highlighted.
anyway, did you have a point?
We need Nomar as well... in left field. All signs (Seanz) point to Colletti staying with a platoon at first and grooming Nomar for left field. However, the Times and other media sources seem to be insisting that Nomar is headed for firstbase.
If Colletti uses Nomar on the infield and dumps the power of Choi/Seanz for a veteran retread like Lofton, then I think it will be apparent Colletti is the spawn of Brian Sabean.
That said, based on Colletti's acquisition of Ethier and the short term deals he's signing, I'm hopeful the Nomar to first rumors are just that.
http://tinyurl.com/9sp4r
talking about the potential non-tenders coming up this week. Corey Patterson is an intriguing name on that list. Also of interest is Hee Seop Choi. "Deemed expendable by the Dodgers."
Not so interesting, Jason Phillips in the "Others" list at the bottom.
1B Hee Seop Choi- Deemed expendable by the Dodgers.
We've deemed him expendable? The Media has no idea what's happening, even Colletti has admitted everything is "what if" and he's made no decisions yet.
By the way,for an easterner, when people refer to posts at Dodger.com, what exact site do they mean-- The Official D's web site?
Not like I'm selfish or anything.
I'd also like to think that Nomar would OPS considerably higher next year, given his performance last year after returning from the DL; .952 in August and .858 in September.
I know the love for Choi runs deep on this site but it's mostly based on "what ifs" and "maybes".
Choi is a lifetime .240 hitter. He hit .253 last season with 1 strikeout per 4 at bats. Not much better than Jayson Werth.
I know the Sabermetrics argument is that the guy works the count, hits with amazing power in spurts, and if somehow he could just play everyday perhaps he would show the world.
But he also might strike out 150 times. Or stand there popping his chewing gum in the bottom of the ninth down by one with a runner on praying for a walk instead of trying to win the game.
Because what you theorize may happen and what I actually saw for the last year and a half are two very different things.
Perhaps Choi would be great if given the everyday job at first. But Nomar has won a batting title. He was among the games very elite. He had an incredible run of bad luck the last two years but he certainly isn't Ken Griffey Jr.
The only claim I've made in this thread is that for the past two years, Choi has outhit Garciaparra and been healthier. Given that Choi is much younger, this trend is likely to continue in 2006. You may call that a "what if," but it's less of one than "what if Garciaparra is healthy."
If you didn't see Choi being a better player than Garciaparra over the past two years - which is all this thread is about - you weren't looking. I see a very critical analysis of Choi's performance in your writing, whereas Garciaparra's 2004-2005 just gets whitewashed.
The love for Choi is in large part a defense mechanism in response to the bias against him. You imply people are biased, yet you give Garciaparra all kinds of benefit of the doubt. Garciaparra's place among the game's elite was a while ago.
Based on the Nomar's numbers last August and September, he has tremendous upside if healthy. Choi, as detailed over and over again on this site, has upside as well. Play them both. The Dodgers will be a better team because of it.
You make some valid points Jon.
I guess I look at a player who was among the best of the best just two short years ago and then compare him to a guy who has potential but really has yet to do much more than be good in spurts, adequate in others, and lousy at times.
If you want to make the argument that in 2004-2005 Choi was superior to Nomar I'll grant you that. But I just read your words again from the front page and to me it sounds like you are suggesting the Dodger give the first base job to Choi by default and let Nomar platoon and play left. You seem dismissive of Nomar and certain of Choi. That's where we part company.
I think Choi has tools and in a certain role could be very good. Yet he also has that Shawn Green quality that really grates on me. The ability to hit 10 homers in a week and then go a month without another. And going to the plate looking like he's begging for a walk when the game is on the line. For my taste he isn't aggressive enough to be a corner infielder.
But I concede your point, Choi was better than the injured Nomar in 2004-2005. What that says exactly I don't know. But I'll grant the point.
No my assumption is that a healthy Nomar at 33 is superior to a healthy Choi at 26.
No one, even the diehard Choites, have ever said that he is a hall of fame player. Yet before the injuries Nomar was definitely on his way to Cooperstown.
Furthermore, let's not paint Nomar as Ken Griffey Jr. He had some incredible bad luck in 2004 and 2005. That happens. If he is healthy all the scout agree his bat still has plenty of pop. And it's not like the guy forgot how to play the game.
If Nomar is healthy and plays 140-150 games this becomes a moot point by mid-summer and we're talking about getting him signed long term.
On the other hand, Choi at first doesn't really sit well with me either. I think he lacks confidence at the plate and in the field, something that Warren in post 86 was alluding to. Saenz was great at the plate in 05 but it's been stated that we should expect a decline from him in 06. Saenz/Choi platoon is average/marginal at best.
I don't like the OF help that's left on the market (Sanders & Lofton). Too old, reminds me too much of the Old Timers from up north. Don't want 'em. Damon is not coming here, so that's out of the question.
Given the options...Choi/Saenz platoon vs. Garciaparra vs. OF help via free agency (Sanders, Lofton) I am not sure what I would choose.
When you say long-term I hope you mean a 2 year contract. There is no way I would give someone like Garciaparra more than 2 years based on his recent history of injuries. That's very aggressive of you to assume he is going to play 140-150 games based on the last 2 years. I think if he comes here he platoons with Saenz and definitely plays less than 140 games.
Another maybe...If we sign Garciaparra, what happens to Izzy?
2005 stats:
Choi . 336 OBP .453 SLG .253 AVG 15 HR
Seanz .325 OBP .480 SLG .263 AVG 15 HR
Discounting biased perception, how can Seanz be "great" at the plate while Choi "lacks confidence"?
Actually the Marlins 1st baseman is Jacobs who they received from the Mets. Stokes is still a year away and Jacobs projects to be at least as good as Choi if not better. They currently have Josh Willingham scheduled to be the catcher but he also could see time at 1st base. They have no need of Choi.
Saenz stats Apr - Aug
.354 OBP .544 SLG .294 AVG 14 HR (See monthly HR totals below for production consistency)
Saenz September stats
.231 OBP .283 SLG .167 AVG 1 HR
Saenz' monthly HR & RBI Totals
Apr - 2 HR 11 RBI
May - 3 HR 11 RBI
Jun - 2 HR 9 RBI
Jul - 3 HR 8 RBI
Aug - 4 HR 19 RBI
Sep - 1 HR 4 RBI
Perhaps due to his age, got tired at the end of the season...who knows. I am not suggesting he is our full time 1B, rather that he is a solid platoon guy and that other than September at least he was for the most part consistent throughout the year. He had an outstanding August, which was inconsisten with the rest of the year, but it was positive inconsistency in terms of his HR & RBI output, so I'll use it my favor to prove my point.
Choi often looks uncomfortable at the plate, just my opinion, and at no time during the season did his numbers even come close to Saenz' numbers during the April through August period. Even during that stretch where Choi hit those 6 HR's, he hit .205 for the month. IMO, Choi is inconsistent, lacks confidence, and often looks uncomfortable. When the games on the line, I would much rather have Saenz at the plater than Choi up there looking like he would rather get a free pass, again my opinion.
Then it got better. I wasn't too worried about UCLA losing at the end. UCLA's defense looked too good to let Michigan back in it.
At least some athletic team at UCLA can play defense.
1. Yankees - Over...Andy Phelps?
2. Red Sox - Versus...I don't even know. Lowell?
3. Orioles - Javy Lopez? Not if he puts up these numbers again: .278/.322/.458
4. Indians - Ben Broussard.
5. Royals - Doug Mientkiwitz
6. Angels - Darin Erstad
7. As - Effectively Nick Swisher
8. Braves - Adam LaRoche
9. Florida - Jason Stokes
10. Houston - Effectively a choice between Mike Lamb and Chris Burke
11. Padres - Klesko? Some guy named Dave McNaulty
12. Giants - Lance Neikro.
Those are some pretty good teams on that list.
al west
angels: choi > erstad? sure. maybe not kotchman though.
al central
indians: choi > ben broussard? i think so.
royals: choi > mientkiewiczcweds? yeah.
tigers: choi > shelton or dmitri young? maybe not, but he'd be in the mix.
al east
tampa bay: huff is at first, but huff at third over burroughs and choi at first is better than huff at first, burroughs at third.
orioles: choi > walter young or jay gibbons? sure.
red sox: choi > youkilis? meh?
nl east:
i guess maybe not in this division. even the marlins have a decent 1b prospect in jacobs, it seems. though i'd say choi is at least as good as adam laroche of the braves.
nl central:
pirates: well, not with jim tracy managing, but choi is definitely better than sean casey.
nl west
padres: choi > klesko? sure.
giants: choi > niekro? yeah.
anyway, that's still a lot of teams, not even counting the dodgers.
A lineup of:
Furcal SS
Mueller 3B
Drew CF
Kent 2B
Garciaparra LF
Sanders/Cruz/Werth RF (or LF is Nomar gets hurt)
Choi/Saenz 1B
Navarro C
while not full of potential all-stars except for Kent and Drew, is nevertheless solid, with few major holes. No Edwards-types at all.
As far as Choi, I don't think batting him 7th is much of a risk, as the pressure on him would be low. The worst that happens is that you give him a chance for the first half of the year, and if he really proves he can't cut it, when Izturis is ready you move him to 2B, Kent to 1B, and put Choi on the bench, then get rid of him at the end of the year.
I do think this is a make or break year for Choi--he is young enough to still have "potential. However, if he reaches 27, 28 and still hasn't shown that potential, I think the anti-Choi faction will be right.
Hate to quibble with your list but I'll take Jay Gibbons over Choi in a heartbeat. He's going to mash next year. All his trends are moving up and he's geared up for his career year in 2006.
Chris Shelton or D Young. Shelton in his 1st taste of real playing time was awesome. The dude posted an 870 OPS in his 1st year in a pitching park.
Your trying to sell an 790OPS player with a possiblity of 820-850 against players who are young and already posting those kind of numbers.
Klasko vs. Choi is a wash IMO
Erstad vs. Choi, I'd pick Erstad only for the "clubhouse/gamer" factor.
What amazes me is the first thing people say when they bring up that July home run binge is "take that away and he's such a bad player." Why not say "wow, he hit 6 home runs in such a short span. Maybe he deserves to play a little more."
But it seems impossible for anybody to change their mind on the Choi argument...
What an honor. Thanks Jon.
Keep in mind while your comparing Choi to guys like Casey, Klesko, Huff, and Erstad that Choi is cheaper and younger than all those guys. Casey, Klesko and Huff all have been better over the past 2-3 years than Choi, though.
123. how much is the "clubhouse/gamer" factor worth in terms of wins, or runs, or $$$?
122. Dont cut Choi's potential short. Look at Choi's EQA versus David Ortiz at the same ages:
Player 24 25 26
Ortiz 275 273 287
Choi 269 288 275
ages 24-26 choi has a 277 EQA, ortiz 278.
BP's Pecota projection has David Ortiz as Choi's 2nd best comparable player with a similarity score of 43, Thome is also on the list with a score of 28, as is Tim Salmon, 26, and Mo Vaughn 22. I wouldnt garuantee it, but Choi still has it in him to be a elite level hitter. It would be nice if he got some playing time, keep in mind that the only time Choi's gotten everyday playing time, in Florida, he hit 270/388/495 in a pitchers park.
Of course, if you put Erstad ahead of Choi, that's just asking for trouble.
From June 10-14, Choi hit 7 HRs in 4 games, all while batting in the #2 spot in the lineup. Then, on June 15th, Tracy moved Choi down in the lineup, where Hee would pretty much stay. Hee struggled from that point forward.
if you can arbitrarily remove the 6HR's he hit against the Twins to make your point that Choi is no good, then I can remove 20 of his k's to make my point.
the guy may not be a "gamer" (whatever that is) and he may look "uncomfortable" at the plate, but his numbers are obviously comparable to any 1b options the dodgers have, so why not play him? let him come to spring training and prove himself. hes only 27 come opening day. he hasnt had enough of a chance to prove himself.
By OPS, each month Choi hit:
.818/.774/.773/.807/.971/.661
Saenz hit:
1.078/.990/.723/.784/.913/.514
(not counting October)
Choi was actually more consistent than Saenz and actually out-OPSed him the last 4 months of the season.
From July onward, Choi only had 47, 35, and 37 at-bats. The most inconsistent thing about Choi's 2005 performance was his playing time. If Choi's inconsistent, so is nearly every other player in baseball. All players go through hot and cold streaks. Why Choi's streaks are magnified compared to others must be due to some bias or something.
as for the rediculas, he's not a "gamer" or "he just looks uncomfortable at the plate" accusations, its just stupid. How he's hit walk off homeruns, he's a good teamate. He got along great with Milton Bradley, never complained about sitting on the bench while Jason Phillips started at 1B, and always has a smile on, not to mention is a fan favorite at Dodger Stadium, those all sound like "gamer" qualities to me. He doesnt look uncomfortable at the plate. Ive probably watched 95% of Choi's PA's with the Dodgers, and not once have I thought that he looks "uncomfortable at the plate".
Even if it were true that "Choi needs Drew behind him" in order to succeed, who cares? Are you saying you don't want a guy hitting 7 HRs in 4 games because there was a good hitter hitting behind him? You only want a guy hitting 7 HRs in 4 games if he has a bad hitter hitting behind him?
explain to me why he was benched for over a week immediatly after hitting those 6 homeruns,...
That's a good question. Could it be that in the following games that the Dodgers were facing hard throwing pitchers? I don't know. But from the Cubs to Florida to LA the scouts said that he cannot get around on the plus fastball.
Ive heard sportswriters claim that he couldnt handle good fastballs, but all scouts have conceded is that he has trouble with hard stuff up and in. Either way, is that really a reason to keep him on the bench, Milton Bradley also has problems with hard fastballs, I dont remember him sitting against power pitchers.
Saenz's inconsistency is actually positive inconsistency. His OPS numbers for the year should have been closer to around the .784 that he put up in July (his season OPS was .804, Choi's was .789). The months where Saenz's OPS numbers were above his season average, they were considerably above that number. Choi had one month where his OPS by month was considerably higher than his season average (August).
You contend that Choi goes through hot and cold streak and that his streaks are magnified. I am not magnifying his streaks at all, rather I am contending that he is an overall bad player.
Maybe Choi needs consistent playing time, but if that's the case, he's not going to get it in LA. He's got Saenz to contend with and if we get Nomar he's playing time should diminish considerably. If we have Nomar & Saenz, his numbers should be very marginal in 06 based on the assumption that he needs consistent playing time and should probably be shipped out.
Looking at the team in 06, I'd give it a very small chance of Choi getting some protection in the line-up and would use this to further my point that he will probably not significantly contribute to the team.
ill take 27 yr old Choi's average yet consistent numbers over 35 yr old Saenz's positively inconsistant numbers.
so basically youre saying that regardless of numbers and performance, you just flat out dont like Choi?
IMO, I don't see Choi as being a good player. I have season seats behind first base and have had them for 15 years now, I went to more than 30 games last year, and I saw a lot of Choi both in person and on TV. I admit, I was impressed when he hit those HR's, and not one time have I discounted his little outburst to support my argument that he is a bad player. Others have tried to state that he hit those because he was batting 2nd, Tracy moved him down in the order, lack of playing time, etc. I'll use those excuses to further my point that he is a bad player and that he probably won't improve in 06. I am merely expressing my opinion about Choi, objective or not, which is that he is an average player at best, and I would prefer to rank him in the below average range.
157 - Where do you get that from? I've never met the guy, how could I be expected to not like the guy? I think he is an average to below average player based on his production over the last year and a half.
look at the numbers in 144: "If you take Choi's stats from 2004 and 2005, he got approx 600 AB's, which is about a full MLB season. Over those 600 AB's, he hit 30 HRS, drove in 88 runs, walked 95 times, stuck out 176 times, his OPS were .883 in 2004 with the Marlins, .581 in 2004 with LA, and .789 last year. His overall BA was around .260."
his production is not below average. you just said you would prefer to rank him as a below average player. but the numbers indicate otherwise, so why else do you think he's below average?
most of these men are depo's (sigh) but i think we could agree that depo wouldn't kick nomah or mueller out of bed, even if they left crumbs.
Though he's been hurt the past couple of years, he has a proven track record, and returned strong at the end of last year...and he has a lot to prove this year! Sure, he could get injured again - that's very possible, but that's why we need a strong bench.
As for Choi, he doesn't thrill me, but I'm willing to give him another chance 'cause he has shown potential. But, I'm another of those he feel he looks uncomfortable at the plate, and he needs to earn my confidence. I think he could really excel at the plate if he's surrounded by other good hitters instead of the patchwork lineup we had last year.
That's another reason to get Nomar!
WWSH
The "I watch more baseball than you" argument.
I didn't read that.
JT Snow is another. Lots of diving highlight plays, but not really great range any more.
Stan from Tacoma
that argument would be great had i not attended between 25-40 games a year since 02.
I think that he supported his opinion by what he saw...not just by what he had read.
You can question his ability to judge talent, but to call it a "trump card" because he is a season ticket holder and sees a lot of games is just name calling.
Naw, he'd probably aggravate the groin fielding his first bunt...
Eventually this will all sort itself out, but I think we might have to wait a while before we're sure of Big Choi's status.
WWSH
according to Hochi Sports, Kazuhisa Ishii has decided to re-sign with Yakult.
but i went to relatively the same amount of games and have come up with a different conclusion about choi.
I never said I watch more baseball than you, nor the fact that I have season tickets make my argument more credible than anyone elses. Rather merely using that to say that I have seen Choi as well as many other players during my tenure as a baseball fan, and my assesment of an average or below average player is based on just that. Is that soooo wrong?
Did you see 176 ?
182. Big Game
If you agree with him then it's not the "trump card".
Seriously, I figure a gimpy Nomar at first would be a downgrade, a healthy one possibly a very slight upgrade, and the whole thing moot because he likely won't play there if he does for us at all. I don't mind Choi, but the rabid attachment some people here have for him seems utterly irrational. He's--at best--a very patchy player with canteloupe-sized holes in his swing who can hit the ball a long, long way occasionally. Not often enough for my own liking, but we could afford to keep him if we had a legitimate power-hitting outfielder. We don't (yet) and Nomar is probably not-quite-legitimate-enough in that regard either. But Choi is not--he will not become--David Ortiz either. "Sufficient" he may be, but he is not by a long shot the best we could have at that position.
Please see 183, I am not trying to do what you are accusing me of. Yes, because I can afford season tickets and you low-life's...Oh, forget it...
But I for one appreciate your point of view. You are decidedly NOT making the most infuriating sort of argument, which is to focus on one or two plays as sufficient evidence that Choi is no good. The singular of "data" is "anecdote." Your approach has been, so far, to look at Choi's entire body of work, but with a different measuring stick (visual observation) than a lot of us prefer (performance data).
Keep it coming, greenchris. Reasonable and polite disagreement is always interesting.
I do suggest that we change the name of the page to Dodger Thoughts on why Jon loves Hee Seop Choi
I'll cop to the name calling charge, but I'd do it again. I've got every game I watched this season archived and on file. Does that make me a better judge of talent? No, and just because he saw 40 some odd games in person he's not better than you, me, or Jon. My season ticket jab It's nothing to do with being a season ticket holder. I live in DC, so it wouldn't do me that much good if I had season tickets. I did see Choi hit a mammoth shot out of RFK though FWIW.
My problem is with the argument Greenchris was making. He was seeing the argument flow against him as the objective evidence stacked up against his opinion. This is wont to happen here when someone starts in on this particular topic. So he pulled the only thing he had left: That Choi is bad because he seems clumsy in GC's opinion. This type of argument has been the refuge of scoundrels in the past. It's somewhat annoying to see a new handle pop up everycouple of days and have the argument reahashed. The argument discounts good games Choi may have had when GC was not in attendace, (ie Choi's fabulous defensive game agins the Mets.)
As GoBears said in 175 many productive ballplayers can look somewhat unseemly. The eyes can be tricky, and it's best not to trust them. This lack of trust in subjective observation should go both ways. Many, myself inc., belived that JT was a bunt-happy lunatic last season. Sadly, as shown at Dodgermath ("Dep for Pres" on the sidbar) this wasn't the case. This is why the stats are important. They can, if we let them, clear up any misconceptions about players, managers, or teams. If we ignore them, than we're just going on gut, which is another way of saying "guessing".
Why? Because someone told you to? You called that guy out for exactly the right reason. We all watch a lot of baseball, that's why we're here. It is used as a trump card, it is nothing but condescension, and it should be derided when attempted.
O shi.
"I've watched a lot of baseball and I think that Hee Seop Choi will become the next Willie McCovey. He has cat-like reflexes and the swing of Ted Williams." Helpful, ain't it?
IMO, Saenz is a solid platoon guy, but I would not make the same assesment for Choi. Many of you are saying he is not a solid platoon guy because he hasn't been given a fair shot. I take the other side fo the fence.
CAPDODGER, So what if he hit a mammoth shot in RFK. 330 ft or 500 ft, it's still a HR isn't it? Your statement here is basically the same problem that you have with my claims (observations vs. statistical analysis)...please don't make the same mistake I already made, and if I were you I would retract that statement IMMEDIATELY!
Can we find somebody with a larger sample size?
Good luck with the spotlight
In other words, although I admit this is a little far fetched, can anyone out there see Ned signing Nomah, Lofton and/or Sanders and then trying to move Drew somewhere for a pitcher?
Not really. I think you're consistent. :)
Nat's fans were turning to me asking if this was normal. I said yes for Kent and Choi, but the others surprised me completely. Why was I able to say that? I had the statistics on hand.
BTW... your assertion that Hee's slower around the bag is slightly supported by FRAA for 2005: -4. But Hee was also 6 runs above average offensively. For replacement level salary, that's not bad.