I really really hope Nomar plays left and not first base.

Hahaha I like actually thinking we have players sewn up and they are going to choose us.

Nomar playing in 120 games may be optimistic.

I don't think he wants nomar at first. It's just a way to appease the media and scare other clubs. I think Tim from ESPN said that 1st base would put the most stress on Nomar's legs.

I am sure this has been mentioned elsewhere on the blog, but do people think Nomar is a good idea for the Dodgers anywhere? Why do they need an injury prone 32 year old who would be learning a new position, making more injuries even more likely? It's not like he's A-Rod with the stick either. Nomar was a special player when he hit .330 and wasn't the worst shortstop in the league with the glove. Those days are so far gone, but people just love that name recognition. I would rather have Antonio Perez right now than Nomar--I am serious about that--does anyone disagree?

I hate the Mueller signing because I don't see what that guy does besides look scrappy that Willie Aybar wouldn't do 90% of for 10% of the price. But at least there I understand the whole "he's a great guy in the clubhouse" mentality we apparently run our team by now. What about Nomar? Doesn't he have vague hints of malcontent about him? Isn't he not a "gamer" (like JD Drew)?

This is so depressing. The Bradley trade was horrible (why throw in Perez?), the Mueller signing ill-advised, the Furcal signing at least defensible, and now Nomar? What's next, Damon for AJ Burnett years and money?

Colletti mentioned he discussed with Nomar where Nomar would play, but I have yet to see him actually say Nomar would play 1B. Did I miss this? Gurnick mentioned Sanders as an alternative to Nomar, which seems to hint that Nomar would be in LF, despite what Gurnick says otehrwise.

And assuming Izzy does play 2B when he comes back (which I still don't believe entirely), would Colletti really prefer Ledee/Repko? over Choi/Saenz? Or would the plan be to sign Lofton and sit him at some point? At least in that scenario we wouldn't lose much offense when Izzy returns

6 - Don't get me wrong - there has been a lot of false rumor this offseason, and I think Nomar at 1B is part of that. But I also think there are people out there who would assume that Garciaparra is light years better than Choi, and I just wanted to make the point that that isn't the case.

Well, you know, if you take out that week where Choi hit all those home runs, then his productivity goes way down . . . .

(yes, I am pointedly kidding; no, I do not think this would be a legitimate way to analyze a player's performance)

7 I think I've read too much of dodgers.com. That post seemed to be more for them than anyone here, as nowhere do you even hint that Nomar would play 1B, other than a platoon. I can't for the life of me figure out what that post was a reaction to here

9 Well, Jon did intimate that it was pre-emptive. Hence, not a reaction to anything, but a pre-action.

9 - I can't for the life of me figure out why all my posts would be reactions to commenters. That's never been a guiding rationale - particularly considering I was doing this for two years before I had commenters.

At 50,000 feet, maybe signing Nomar to play some LF and some 1B makes some sense, along with signing Mueller, Furcal and trading away Bradley ...

The Dodgers are at a crossroads - they can cut payroll, suck it up and wait for the kiddie corps to arrive - or - they can do a few high risk/high reward deals to improve enough on last season to make a run at the West division crown. But, wishing for anything higher would be a miracle on an order even greater than the '59 or '88 teams seasons. And, don't get me wrong here, I love the Dodgers and those two teams are my all-time favorites.

So maybe Colletti looks at the landscape and thinks - I can get us back to 85-90 wins in '06 and '07 and then the kids arrive and we're off to dynasty land. Maybe.

Signing Nomar for lots of $ short-term is a reasonable short-term risk to take. The upside could be substantial. And, if Nomar gets injured, or doesn't hit his weight, well at least he's not blocking a kid for very long - or could get cut - sunk costs and all that accounting stuff.

So I say, lets take a chance - what's the downside? Another 90+ loss season? I honestly don't think the current lineup if it stays reasonable healthy can lose that many again. I believe Ned has got the bus out of the ditch and back on the road. Whether he can get it moving fast enough to use the passing lane is something we'll find out this summer.

Yippee: my favorite topic (Choi).

So, if I had a dollar for every time I heard someone say "Choi ripped lefties in the minors", I'd have a lot of dollars. However, I have never once seen any of Choi's minor league statistics. Does anyone have those handy, or know where I can find them?

13 Do you want his stats or his splits? I don't the latter, but the former:

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/C/hee-seop-choi.shtml

14
Yes, the splits would be nice, but thanks for the stats. Those are pretty impressive.

So, when people talk about his performance vs. lefties in the minors, do you think they're basing their claims on an actual review of the stats, or just repeating some unsubstantiated mantra that has been generally accepted?

Why not use some of the $$ floating around to lock up players like Navarro, Jackson, Hochevar, most of the bullpen, and (gasp) even Choi for a few more years, instead of burning it on stopgaps like Washburn or Garciaparra?

Sign 'em to frontloaded extensions, get through their first few free agency years on the cheap, then when they start to slow down in 2007-08 and beyond you have already paid for their best years up front and they can be rotated out in favor of the prospects that may/may not be ready by then.

Is signing a "big name" like Furcal, Nomar, or Damon more important than keeping younger players with more potential upside through their prime years?

I have not seen the posts on the Dodgers.com messageboard this positive in years... it kind of makes me sick! People only showed up to rip on DePodesta.

16 -- Shouldn't you be trying to foist David Bell or Mike Lieberthal on us?

7 A point very worth making. Plus Choi's been a first baseman for a few years. How many games has Nomar even played at the position. Is he likely to be "savvy" out there?

I sort of like the idea of having Nomar on the team, but I'm not sure what exactly his role will be. He seems like he's ready for one more big year. But if he isn't playing regularly? He's not exactly a wallflower.

Thus, my preference is for Mr. Ned to pursue the Sanders and/or Lofton options. We need outfielders. They're outfielders.

16 Signing those guys now seems wildly premature on so many levels.

Not exactly minor league splits (they aren't the easiest stats to find), but this is from the ESPN.com Scouting Report on Hee Seop from 2004:

"Choi has a superb eye and only when badly fooled does the big guy swing at a bad pitch. That said, he has a lot of holes in his swing. Opponents like to bust him with hard stuff just under the hands, and Choi has trouble with most breaking pitches. He has a big uppercut, so when he connects the ball travels a long way. For a young power hitter, Choi is surprisingly comfortable driving a ball the other way. Though he hit better than .300 versus lefthanders in the minors, that success has not translated to the bigs."

I wouldn't mind spending some money on Hochevar, we just need to avoid the major league contract. Save Hochevar destroying an independent league, I have no idea how Boras will get any money for Hochevar. But if BA is right and White has been offended...well too bad.

18 - Not after your shrewd pickups of Bill Mueller and Sandy Alomar Jr.

Now I am trying to foist Joe Banner on you :)

( the :) means it's a joke. but i was serious in 16, it makes a lot more sense than signing yet another SS)

And I meant to comment on 16...

I think you get into a situation like the Blue Jays did with Eric Hinske when they signed him to a large extension following his ROY in 2002. Really, there is no reason to give guys longer termish type contracts until they approach their arbitration years.

I agree that Nomar definitely should be put in left, not at first, because neither Saenz nor Choi can play lf. I do think that Nomar has a very good chance to outperform the 1b platoon. After he returned from injury last year, Nomar ripped the ball, something like a 900 OPS.

This morning on Colin Cowherd, he very openly speculated (really, all but asserted) that Nomar's drop in power and increased DL stints directly coincide with the ban on roids. Could be but I didn't notice much change in his size. Then he preceeded to rip Frank for trying to create Boston West.

22. Are Logan White's feelings truly a factor in the Hochevar negotiations? Who says so? I think I missed that one.

I would guess the Dodgers are not happy with Hochevar's lack of maturity and indecisiveness.

Flip flopping agents by fax at the eleventh hour of a negotiation does not speak well about this young man's ability to handle pressure.

I would think the Dodgers expect a bit more maturity from a college pitcher.

Look how cool Zito looks on the front page of ESPN.com.

LZ in 07

I have a non baseball question that maybe someone here can hepl me with. (Jon, I apologize in advance if you object to this). I am buying my wife a laptop for the holidays and a frind told be to go to fatwallet.com where they have all sorts of coupons for use at Dell and HP but I can't figure out how to use the site. Can someone explain or link me to a site that will. As to not clutter up DT you can e-mail me at ltabb@comcast.net
Thanks

Not sure if this has been posted:

Nearing a decision on where he will play next season, Nomar Garciaparra is believed to be leaning toward accepting a one-year contract to play first base for the Dodgers.

http://tinyurl.com/cqd73

26 Of course, Cowherd failed to mention that Nomar's longest DL stint (it was the wrist injury) was in 2001.

30
And Rotoworld's take:

Garciaparra has told the team he would be willing to play first base or left field. Left field still might be the choice, mainly because the Dodgers would want to put Jeff Kent at first base after Cesar Izturis returns at midseason. It certainly wouldn't be out of any great fondness for Hee Seop Choi. Dec. 17 -

26. Isn't significant weight gain one of the tip-offs that someone is using steroids?

Nomar is listed by MLB as 6'0", 190 lbs. I don't know where to find his weight numbers for previous seasons, but he has appeared to me as being more of a wiry, speed/power guy, not as a over-muscled power guy.

Are the injuries he has suffered the past two years indicators of steroid use? Wasn't his severe wrist injury attributed to being struck by a pitched ball? The torn groin muscle was caused by an awkward step out of the batters box. That doesn't seem suspicious to my untrained eye. Is it to anyone else?

FYI - Nomar was/is an exceptional athlete. He was a terrific youth and high school soccer player, and might have become a high-level player in that sport, at least at the college level and maybe pro if he wanted to.

31. No he did not mention it. I was suprised by the way he went after Nomar. I usually think of Cowherd as a fair-minded guy, and certianly not irresponsible.

Hee Seop Dangerfield Choi... no respect no respect at all.

Haha my teacher from Korea who's last name also happens to be Choi, was a big Hee Seop Choi fan even though he knows nothing about baseball.

Brown's article makes me think Colletti wants Nomar and a OF, but should we fail to sign Sanders/Lofton, Nomar would play LF. But it also says the Dodgers probably wouldn't want him to learn 2 new positions with Izzy coming back. I guess we just need to wait until Colletti is done with his "what if" garbage and says something. As long as Snow is out of the picture...

Next Tuesday could be the big day if Nomar signs and Colletti stays quiet. Will Choi be a Dodger on Wednesday? Will Phillips?

I can't imagine Nomar would accept any kind of platoon role, especially getting the short-end vs LHP. Your last paragraph makes the most sense and it's what I'm hoping for. Mueller and Kent both would figure to take 10-12 games off. Nomar can play 100 in LF and 25 backing up 2b and 3b.

I wish we'd get an option for 2007. Something tells me he has a bounce-back year and when we need him to replace Kent for 2007 his asking price gets too steep.

The other part of that article that may be important:

Rick Honeycutt, who pitched in nearly 800 games over 21 seasons in the big leagues, is a strong candidate to become Grady Little's pitching coach. He has been the Dodgers' minor league pitching coordinator for four years.

And the *other part of that article that may be important:

Free-agent outfielder Kenny Lofton met Friday with Arizona Diamondback officials. Lofton would prefer to sign with the Dodgers and intended to talk to Colletti on Friday night or today.

Why do we need Lofton again?

I meant again as in can someone explain it to me again, not that he has played for us before.

From Rotoworld-

While the Red Sox have held discussions with agent Danny Horwits about J.T. Snow, Horwitz said that other teams are further along with him.
The Royals signed Doug Mientkiewicz and the Dodgers have other priorities, so it might be that Snow will join the Padres.

Yes, join the Padres. Fine by me, just stay away from LA. If Nomar at 1B meant no Snow, well, then it wouldn't be quite so bad

The Boston Herald says we are one of the remaining teams interested in Seanez.

40 What I heard was Colletti doesn't trust Drew in center.

43 It's probably important that I don't remember where I heard that. It could be the insignificant opinion of some random person somewhere (such as a dodgers.com poster or Tony Jackson)

What does he not trust? haha Drew's defense has never been a problem and he played center well last year.

Seanez has been pretty good pitcher, but why do we need him?

46
Now that's where you need to ask why do we need him again.

Incidentally, if McCourt is looking for a way to convince Nomar to pick the Dodgers, the latest "Catfish Stew" headline has a pretty good suggestion.

49

Mrs. Nomar is retired from that sport and I would be inclined to believe she isn't going back to it. There's not enough money in it for her.

50
Why must everything be about money?

Well, she could always become the Rachel Phelps of soccer.

I'm probably like the 3,400th person to mention this, but just in case not -- Jon, all your Baseball Cube links are broken.

49 50

We're both being self-referential were we?

Mia Hamm doesn't need to play competitive soccer again because she has played about as well in that sport as anyone can. If she came back and tried to play again, she would obviously not be as good. And the only way I think she would consider returning was if someone drove up to her home in Manhattan Beach and parked a dump truck full of money in front of it.

Matt Diaz was just released by the Royals. This might sound pathetic but I'd rather give Diaz a try then sign Sanders or Lofton or Jones. He'd be the perfect player to handle the open OF spot while Drew and Werth get healthy. Once they are healthy he can become a solid 4th/5th outfielder or a platoon mate for Ledee if Werth never gets healthy. Bill James thinks he can post a > 800 OPS if given a chance in the major leagues. I'd be happy entering the season with Cruz/Drew/Nomar/Diaz/Ledee/Repko as the outfielders with Werth on the DL. I'm getting excited about signing Nomar as he is going to be a big asset to the team. This will be the bounce back Nomar year where he posts a 870 OPS.

Rumor mill has the Dodgers checking out Gathright again. Just thought I'd mention that so we can get a couple hundred posts about what an idiot Colletti is based on a rumor since that seems to be a great game around here.

I think the Gathright rumors are a result of Tampa writers who want Martin and Broxton more than actual rumors

If Mia Hamm had a league to play for.

I think Nomar is our best chance of filling our LF need for a few reasons.

a) he has the potential to be a very good #5 hitter based on past performance
b) he will only command a 1 or 2 year contract
c) just the buzz of getting Noomaaaah would put a few extra butts in the seats and sell a few more jerseys

Lofton would be a little redundant since we already signed a leadoff hitter, but he's still a pretty good ballplayer if we can't work anything out with anyone else. Sanders would be my second choice based on his power potential. The line-up right now is mostly full of good patient hitters who will sport good OBPs, what we need now is one more bopper to hit in that 5 spot to make the line-up complete.

Anyone see Seattle's offer to Washburn by the way? $36-38 million over 4 years? I think you can erase him from your wishlist werthgagne31 or saxmarshall31 or whichever players you're 31ing now ;)

57 Actually, I'm a little surprised Seattle didn't offer more. It would have been (morally) wrong, but with the market the way it is...

molokai: can you elaborate a bit on what you like about Matt Diaz? I'm embarrassed to admit I've never even heard of him. Thanks.

Do not expect Artest on the Lakers...

Artest said some of the criticism he has
received has been unfair. Former NBA great Magic Johnson said Artest doesn't deserve a second chance in the NBA.

"It's like saying, 'Magic, should your wife give you another chance?'" Artest said "He's saying Ron Artest should have no more second chances. What's worse -- me saying I want to be traded or you cheating on your wife?"

http://tinyurl.com/92bv8

58
He was a career minor leaguer in the Tampa Bay organization much like Johnny Gomes except he went to KC last year and only got 89 at bats. He's to old to be a prospect but at AAA he had the following line 371/408/649 for Omaha. He has some speed some power and can hold down a corner OF position. He's no big deal but if we sign Nomar were just looking for insurance in case Drew is not ready for the season. I think if he'd been given at bats he would have had a Werth like 2004 season. Plus he took up catching to help himself stick in the major leagues so he might even be able to be an emergency catcher. Statheads like him, GM's don't.
He is a much better hitter then Jason Repko.

59. Got to give him credit for calling it like it is.

59-
Magic actually said to get an extension Ron would have to prove himself or no one in the NBA is going to give him a deal.

61 Isn't that sort of a logical fallacy though? Magic failed at the fidelity aspect of his life, but it really doesn't have anything to do with Ron Artest and his trade demands.

57 And yet, ironically, those few more jerseys will not have "Garciaparra" on the back.

60 Thanks. Sounds like the kind of guy DePo would go for -- a AAAA player who is cheap and probably no worse than a more expensive retread (Myrow, Edwards, Grabowski). Sometimes those guys work out, sometimes they don't. They're low risk, but only if your starters aren't all injured, so that these guys get 2-300 ABs.

#65: The Dodgers already have a similar player in Tydus Meadows. I expect him to put up monster numbers in the PCL this season as he OPS'ed .900+ in the Southern League last season.

Colletti might be considering Lofton as a fourth outfielder or insurance policy should someone get hurt again.

52 - You're not, but I know. They changed their format, and I've been lazy about dealing with it.

What you failed to mention Jon is that by any other season Nomar's stats are better than Choi's and by his stats from just two years ago he's far and away better.

I don't think many people would honestly pick Choi over Nomar. Maybe that's not fair and only because Choi hasn't been given a shot. But regardless at this point I'll take a Nomar with everything to prove over Choi.

Sure I'd rather see Nomar in left and Choi starting at first. But if the team feels that Nomar isn't capable of being the everyday left fielder for injury reasons moving Choi and his very small salary along with a prospect to some AL team for a middle of the rotation pitcher makes sense to me. In the AL he can DH and play 1B and really get that shot that everyone here seems to think he deserves.

69 -

Choi doesn't have to prove anything. Look the numbers from last year:

266 341 828 platoon
283 320 772 for the cost of Nomar

That platoon was primarily Saenz & Choi with some Kent and a dash of Phillips, Myrow etc.

Last year we got 31HR and 104RBI. I would guess we could expect about the same considering a decline from Saenz, and more production from Choi due to the stages in their career.

Now consider that the last time Nomar put up numbers like our 1Bmen did last year was 03. It's absolutely crazy to pay more to a guy who is less likely to perform.

If you take away Choi's big weekend against the Twins (6 hrs) what are his stats like? How much did one series inflate his value on paper?

71 If you take away 6 HRs from Choi's total, he will have 6 less HRs... so will any other baseball player in the history of the sport.

When the name Choi is spoken, does some kind of intelligence vortex open up and suck all rational thought out of the universe for a short period of time?

73 I think you're onto something.

I like Nomar, but signing him doesn't make sense to me. Sure, Choi might not be an all-star, but a Choi/Sanez platoon is not the problem with this team. We need outfielders that can hit and some starting pitching. I'm not sure what Nomar does to fix either of those problems.

69 - Actually, I talked about two seasons - 2004 and 2005 - both of which Choi's stats were better. And aren't those two the most relevant seasons?

A trade for a pitcher is another story, and yes, when Nomar was winning batting titles and Choi was still a growing boy, Nomar was better.

You write, "I don't think many people would honestly pick Choi over Nomar. Maybe that's not fair and only because Choi hasn't been given a shot. But regardless ..." My job here is to encourage people to care about making a fair judgment, not give them license to be unfair.

It's not an open and shut case, but the trends are certainly moving in Choi's favor - and clearly that needs to be highlighted.

69, 75 - Given a choice between Nomar and Choi, both as firstbaseman, and the idea is someone to play everyday, all season, I take Choi. Nomar has the potential to be a better player, but he's terribly injury prone. I'd take Choi, and that's not even factoring in the money.

[71] if you take away 6 homers against whatever team from barry bonds' 2001 season, he doesn't have the single season record anymore. shocking, isn't it.

anyway, did you have a point?

The problem is that we don't know to the extent that "first base" is a figment of the media's imagination. I'm sure they immediately leap to the conclusion that "Oh, Nomar's going to play first base because the Dodgers have a sink hole at first base." This is because they have the mental acuity of turnips. I am convinced that whatever Colletti's mental acuity, it is not that of a turnip. There are positives and negatives to a Nomar signing -- possibly the greatest negative being that with Grady managing, he could be the focal point for the kind of rank favoritism and gross mis-management that was a hallmark of the past five years. But that is the kind of problem that DePodesta found himself unable to manage anyway, so things will have not changed.

For me, the potential Nomar signing and how it shakes out will be the first real glimpse of Colletti's true philosophy. Furcal could at least be justified because Izturus is out indefinately. The Bradley dump was pre-ordained. We needed Meuller.

We need Nomar as well... in left field. All signs (Seanz) point to Colletti staying with a platoon at first and grooming Nomar for left field. However, the Times and other media sources seem to be insisting that Nomar is headed for firstbase.

If Colletti uses Nomar on the infield and dumps the power of Choi/Seanz for a veteran retread like Lofton, then I think it will be apparent Colletti is the spawn of Brian Sabean.

That said, based on Colletti's acquisition of Ethier and the short term deals he's signing, I'm hopeful the Nomar to first rumors are just that.

Interesting article on mlb.com this morning:

http://tinyurl.com/9sp4r

talking about the potential non-tenders coming up this week. Corey Patterson is an intriguing name on that list. Also of interest is Hee Seop Choi. "Deemed expendable by the Dodgers."

Not so interesting, Jason Phillips in the "Others" list at the bottom.

From MLB.com's article on the non-tender deadline:

1B Hee Seop Choi- Deemed expendable by the Dodgers.

We've deemed him expendable? The Media has no idea what's happening, even Colletti has admitted everything is "what if" and he's made no decisions yet.

We just shoudn't sign any more infielders before addressing SP and OF.
By the way,for an easterner, when people refer to posts at Dodger.com, what exact site do they mean-- The Official D's web site?

I hope we sign Nomar for one reason and one reason only: it will make a big splash, make the MSM and casual fan feel all gooey inside and make it more likley the guys I split my tickets with will stay in at a time when they are wavering.

Not like I'm selfish or anything.

82 Yes, it refers to the message board on Dodgers.com (the official site)

Like others, I hope that the potential Nomar signing represents a LF solution and not a Choi displacement.

I'd also like to think that Nomar would OPS considerably higher next year, given his performance last year after returning from the DL; .952 in August and .858 in September.

75
I know the love for Choi runs deep on this site but it's mostly based on "what ifs" and "maybes".

Choi is a lifetime .240 hitter. He hit .253 last season with 1 strikeout per 4 at bats. Not much better than Jayson Werth.

I know the Sabermetrics argument is that the guy works the count, hits with amazing power in spurts, and if somehow he could just play everyday perhaps he would show the world.

But he also might strike out 150 times. Or stand there popping his chewing gum in the bottom of the ninth down by one with a runner on praying for a walk instead of trying to win the game.

Because what you theorize may happen and what I actually saw for the last year and a half are two very different things.

Perhaps Choi would be great if given the everyday job at first. But Nomar has won a batting title. He was among the games very elite. He had an incredible run of bad luck the last two years but he certainly isn't Ken Griffey Jr.

Don't want to be standing next to Warren in the near future.

86 - With all due respect, Warren, you're the one turning facts into maybes. The facts are there in front of you, and you choose to ignore them.

The only claim I've made in this thread is that for the past two years, Choi has outhit Garciaparra and been healthier. Given that Choi is much younger, this trend is likely to continue in 2006. You may call that a "what if," but it's less of one than "what if Garciaparra is healthy."

If you didn't see Choi being a better player than Garciaparra over the past two years - which is all this thread is about - you weren't looking. I see a very critical analysis of Choi's performance in your writing, whereas Garciaparra's 2004-2005 just gets whitewashed.

The love for Choi is in large part a defense mechanism in response to the bias against him. You imply people are biased, yet you give Garciaparra all kinds of benefit of the doubt. Garciaparra's place among the game's elite was a while ago.

The question is whether a 26 year old Hee Sop is better than a 33 year old Nomar. I assume no one disputes that a 26 year old Nomar is much better than a 26 year old Hee Sop but that's not where we are.

The argument might better be phrased not as Nomar vs. Choi, but rather Choi vs. Cruz or Lofton, or whatever aging veteran Colletti may sign to play the outfield if Nomar is at first.

Based on the Nomar's numbers last August and September, he has tremendous upside if healthy. Choi, as detailed over and over again on this site, has upside as well. Play them both. The Dodgers will be a better team because of it.

Worst somes to worst and Choi is non-tendered or traded or shuffled off to distant lands, I'd rather have Nomar at second and Kent at first.

88
You make some valid points Jon.

I guess I look at a player who was among the best of the best just two short years ago and then compare him to a guy who has potential but really has yet to do much more than be good in spurts, adequate in others, and lousy at times.

If you want to make the argument that in 2004-2005 Choi was superior to Nomar I'll grant you that. But I just read your words again from the front page and to me it sounds like you are suggesting the Dodger give the first base job to Choi by default and let Nomar platoon and play left. You seem dismissive of Nomar and certain of Choi. That's where we part company.

I think Choi has tools and in a certain role could be very good. Yet he also has that Shawn Green quality that really grates on me. The ability to hit 10 homers in a week and then go a month without another. And going to the plate looking like he's begging for a walk when the game is on the line. For my taste he isn't aggressive enough to be a corner infielder.

But I concede your point, Choi was better than the injured Nomar in 2004-2005. What that says exactly I don't know. But I'll grant the point.

It wouldn't surprise me to see Choi non - tendered and watch him go to Japan and have a Roberto Petagine/Cecil Fielder career. Sometimes when baseball has made up their mind about someone you can't change it. The bright GM's don't need a 1st baseman/DH though it wouldn't shock me to see Jon Daniels make a run at Choi. The AL West better watch out because if this guy makes a few more deals like the last one he is going to catch up to Angels/A's very quickly.

89
No my assumption is that a healthy Nomar at 33 is superior to a healthy Choi at 26.

No one, even the diehard Choites, have ever said that he is a hall of fame player. Yet before the injuries Nomar was definitely on his way to Cooperstown.

Furthermore, let's not paint Nomar as Ken Griffey Jr. He had some incredible bad luck in 2004 and 2005. That happens. If he is healthy all the scout agree his bat still has plenty of pop. And it's not like the guy forgot how to play the game.

If Nomar is healthy and plays 140-150 games this becomes a moot point by mid-summer and we're talking about getting him signed long term.

Jon, you make some good points and have definitely opened my eyes to the Garciaparra signing. I was all for it yesterday, but the truth is that signing him and asking him to contribute is a big ? based on his history of injuries. We shouldn't be so blind to think of him as the batting title champ and one of the games elite. He hasn't played a full season in over 2 years and his career has been marked by injuries. I was all for signing Garciaparra, although I am a little worried (scarred & scared too!) about him playing a complete season at an unfamiliar position and being asked to provide protection for Kent.

On the other hand, Choi at first doesn't really sit well with me either. I think he lacks confidence at the plate and in the field, something that Warren in post 86 was alluding to. Saenz was great at the plate in 05 but it's been stated that we should expect a decline from him in 06. Saenz/Choi platoon is average/marginal at best.

I don't like the OF help that's left on the market (Sanders & Lofton). Too old, reminds me too much of the Old Timers from up north. Don't want 'em. Damon is not coming here, so that's out of the question.

Given the options...Choi/Saenz platoon vs. Garciaparra vs. OF help via free agency (Sanders, Lofton) I am not sure what I would choose.

95 - "If Nomar is healthy and plays 140-150 games this becomes a moot point by mid-summer and we're talking about getting him signed long term"

When you say long-term I hope you mean a 2 year contract. There is no way I would give someone like Garciaparra more than 2 years based on his recent history of injuries. That's very aggressive of you to assume he is going to play 140-150 games based on the last 2 years. I think if he comes here he platoons with Saenz and definitely plays less than 140 games.

Another maybe...If we sign Garciaparra, what happens to Izzy?

95 I think he (Choi) lacks confidence at the plate and in the field... Saenz was great at the plate in 05

2005 stats:

Choi . 336 OBP .453 SLG .253 AVG 15 HR
Seanz .325 OBP .480 SLG .263 AVG 15 HR

Discounting biased perception, how can Seanz be "great" at the plate while Choi "lacks confidence"?

I don't think Choi would be headed to Japan. If the Dodgers don't want him, there should be another team in MLB that will sign him. Choi likely wouldn't command a big salary. Maybe the Marlins would want him back.

ugh, if repko makes the roster and choi is non-tendered...

I can't think of another MLB team on which Choi would be considered a leading candidate to start at 1B. Even if we sign Nomar (please!!), why not give a serious shot to Loney or one of the kids?

Choi might not start for another team, but I would think many teams would like to have him in some capacity.

And, FWIW, if we sign Nomar, that would be enough to reverse my position on NOT putting money in McCourt's pocket.

Don't shy away from Nomar. No I don't want him playing 1st base but I do want him on the team. Nomar is going to have a great comeback season and I want that season to take place with the Dodgers. Course if he blows out his hammy, just forget I ever posted this.

101 Bob - Love the Griddle, by the way. Choi might be a useful AL guy - can DH, play some 1B, start an inning.

Carolyn Hughes, Mia Hamm, Mrs. Drew ...

98/100 - The Marlins current firstbasemen is some guy named Jason Stokes. I'd think the Marlins would be delighted to have Choi back.

The Marlins also have Mike Jacobs to play first base.

If you guys are worried about the Bruins, that was my fault. I flipped it on a few minutes ago and saw that we were up by 14. I shut the darn thing off when it got down to 4. Should be OK by now, I expect.

106
Actually the Marlins 1st baseman is Jacobs who they received from the Mets. Stokes is still a year away and Jacobs projects to be at least as good as Choi if not better. They currently have Josh Willingham scheduled to be the catcher but he also could see time at 1st base. They have no need of Choi.

IMO, Choi blows. Saenz was hitting over .290 all year up until September when he hit a brick wall. I don't want to disect these numbers, but in this case I feel it is warranted due to the fact that Saenz is not a full time player, but rather a solid platoon guy.

Saenz stats Apr - Aug
.354 OBP .544 SLG .294 AVG 14 HR (See monthly HR totals below for production consistency)

Saenz September stats
.231 OBP .283 SLG .167 AVG 1 HR

Saenz' monthly HR & RBI Totals
Apr - 2 HR 11 RBI
May - 3 HR 11 RBI
Jun - 2 HR 9 RBI
Jul - 3 HR 8 RBI
Aug - 4 HR 19 RBI
Sep - 1 HR 4 RBI

Perhaps due to his age, got tired at the end of the season...who knows. I am not suggesting he is our full time 1B, rather that he is a solid platoon guy and that other than September at least he was for the most part consistent throughout the year. He had an outstanding August, which was inconsisten with the rest of the year, but it was positive inconsistency in terms of his HR & RBI output, so I'll use it my favor to prove my point.

Choi often looks uncomfortable at the plate, just my opinion, and at no time during the season did his numbers even come close to Saenz' numbers during the April through August period. Even during that stretch where Choi hit those 6 HR's, he hit .205 for the month. IMO, Choi is inconsistent, lacks confidence, and often looks uncomfortable. When the games on the line, I would much rather have Saenz at the plater than Choi up there looking like he would rather get a free pass, again my opinion.

BTW, 110 was in response to 97

When I woke up this morning, I turned on the UCLA-Michigan game and the Wolverines led 8-0.

Then it got better. I wasn't too worried about UCLA losing at the end. UCLA's defense looked too good to let Michigan back in it.

At least some athletic team at UCLA can play defense.

100 Sounds like a challenge

1. Yankees - Over...Andy Phelps?
2. Red Sox - Versus...I don't even know. Lowell?
3. Orioles - Javy Lopez? Not if he puts up these numbers again: .278/.322/.458
4. Indians - Ben Broussard.
5. Royals - Doug Mientkiwitz
6. Angels - Darin Erstad
7. As - Effectively Nick Swisher
8. Braves - Adam LaRoche
9. Florida - Jason Stokes
10. Houston - Effectively a choice between Mike Lamb and Chris Burke
11. Padres - Klesko? Some guy named Dave McNaulty
12. Giants - Lance Neikro.

Those are some pretty good teams on that list.

[100]let's see...

al west
angels: choi > erstad? sure. maybe not kotchman though.

al central
indians: choi > ben broussard? i think so.
royals: choi > mientkiewiczcweds? yeah.
tigers: choi > shelton or dmitri young? maybe not, but he'd be in the mix.

al east
tampa bay: huff is at first, but huff at third over burroughs and choi at first is better than huff at first, burroughs at third.
orioles: choi > walter young or jay gibbons? sure.
red sox: choi > youkilis? meh?

nl east:
i guess maybe not in this division. even the marlins have a decent 1b prospect in jacobs, it seems. though i'd say choi is at least as good as adam laroche of the braves.

nl central:
pirates: well, not with jim tracy managing, but choi is definitely better than sean casey.

nl west
padres: choi > klesko? sure.
giants: choi > niekro? yeah.

anyway, that's still a lot of teams, not even counting the dodgers.

haha looks like reg beat me to it. i was thinking the yankees would play giambi at first, but if not, then yeah, choi would be a "leading candidate" for them too.

115 If he does, it's still effectively choosing between Choi and Bernie Williams for the DH job, at least for now.

The Giants already have a first base platoon with Niekro and Sweeney, so Choi would be superfluous there.

One thing I am concerned about if we sign Nomar--why is everyone so certain that he can play 1B? He has never played the position before, and sticking him at 1B for 120-140 games seems very risky, especially with Kent at 2B. Not a very good defensive right side of the infield. I agree with the poster who said we should stick Nomar at 2B and Kent at 1B if we are going to get rid of Choi. I would personally stick Nomar in LF, where he can't hurt us as much defensively, sign somone like Sanders, and go with a Nomar/Drew/Cruz/Ledee/Sanders/Werth OF combo. Since there are no dominant players on the market, i would try to patch together enough guys who can be productive playing 100 games.

A lineup of:

Furcal SS
Mueller 3B
Drew CF
Kent 2B
Garciaparra LF
Sanders/Cruz/Werth RF (or LF is Nomar gets hurt)
Choi/Saenz 1B
Navarro C

while not full of potential all-stars except for Kent and Drew, is nevertheless solid, with few major holes. No Edwards-types at all.

As far as Choi, I don't think batting him 7th is much of a risk, as the pressure on him would be low. The worst that happens is that you give him a chance for the first half of the year, and if he really proves he can't cut it, when Izturis is ready you move him to 2B, Kent to 1B, and put Choi on the bench, then get rid of him at the end of the year.

I do think this is a make or break year for Choi--he is young enough to still have "potential. However, if he reaches 27, 28 and still hasn't shown that potential, I think the anti-Choi faction will be right.

[117] you'd pick sweeney-the-lesser over choi in that platoon?

114. Choi is > than Sean Casey, Aubrey Huff, Darin Erstad and Ryan Klesko? Hmm...

Were we discussing Choi being better than an incumbent first baseman or just finding a team where he would play?

114
Hate to quibble with your list but I'll take Jay Gibbons over Choi in a heartbeat. He's going to mash next year. All his trends are moving up and he's geared up for his career year in 2006.
Chris Shelton or D Young. Shelton in his 1st taste of real playing time was awesome. The dude posted an 870 OPS in his 1st year in a pitching park.
Your trying to sell an 790OPS player with a possiblity of 820-850 against players who are young and already posting those kind of numbers.

I don't think Choi is better than Casey or Huff. Huff's numbers have been declining over the last few years, but I'd still take him over Choi in a heartbeat.

Klasko vs. Choi is a wash IMO
Erstad vs. Choi, I'd pick Erstad only for the "clubhouse/gamer" factor.

Our perceptions on "which first baseman Choi is better than" depend on how we rate Choi. ie, whether we look at his stats or whether we look at how "uncomfortable" he is at the plate.

What amazes me is the first thing people say when they bring up that July home run binge is "take that away and he's such a bad player." Why not say "wow, he hit 6 home runs in such a short span. Maybe he deserves to play a little more."

But it seems impossible for anybody to change their mind on the Choi argument...

124 - Choi hit the 6 HR's in June not July. FYI, Choi hit .205 in June with 7 HR's and 11 RBI's. He went to the plate 73 times in June, the most during any month. IMO, he was given a shot in June. He hit .205 with 7 HR's and 11 RBi's which is not that great. I think he was a bad player in June as well as the rest of the year.

I just noticed that I've been quoted in the sidebar (finals have kept me from thorough readings of the site lately).

What an honor. Thanks Jon.

124. ill believe in the "take that away and he's such a bad player" argument when you can explain to me why he was benched for over a week immediatly after hitting those 6 homeruns, its not as if he got cold, Tracy just stopped putting him in the lineup.

Keep in mind while your comparing Choi to guys like Casey, Klesko, Huff, and Erstad that Choi is cheaper and younger than all those guys. Casey, Klesko and Huff all have been better over the past 2-3 years than Choi, though.

123. how much is the "clubhouse/gamer" factor worth in terms of wins, or runs, or $$$?

122. Dont cut Choi's potential short. Look at Choi's EQA versus David Ortiz at the same ages:

Player 24 25 26
Ortiz 275 273 287
Choi 269 288 275

ages 24-26 choi has a 277 EQA, ortiz 278.
BP's Pecota projection has David Ortiz as Choi's 2nd best comparable player with a similarity score of 43, Thome is also on the list with a score of 28, as is Tim Salmon, 26, and Mo Vaughn 22. I wouldnt garuantee it, but Choi still has it in him to be a elite level hitter. It would be nice if he got some playing time, keep in mind that the only time Choi's gotten everyday playing time, in Florida, he hit 270/388/495 in a pitchers park.

120 I think the point was more that Choi is better than Burroughs.

Of course, if you put Erstad ahead of Choi, that's just asking for trouble.

125
From June 10-14, Choi hit 7 HRs in 4 games, all while batting in the #2 spot in the lineup. Then, on June 15th, Tracy moved Choi down in the lineup, where Hee would pretty much stay. Hee struggled from that point forward.

124: Thank you for pointing out tracy sitting choi right after the HR outburst.

if you can arbitrarily remove the 6HR's he hit against the Twins to make your point that Choi is no good, then I can remove 20 of his k's to make my point.

the guy may not be a "gamer" (whatever that is) and he may look "uncomfortable" at the plate, but his numbers are obviously comparable to any 1b options the dodgers have, so why not play him? let him come to spring training and prove himself. hes only 27 come opening day. he hasnt had enough of a chance to prove himself.

Choi's "inconsistencies/struggles":
By OPS, each month Choi hit:
.818/.774/.773/.807/.971/.661

Saenz hit:
1.078/.990/.723/.784/.913/.514

(not counting October)

Choi was actually more consistent than Saenz and actually out-OPSed him the last 4 months of the season.

From July onward, Choi only had 47, 35, and 37 at-bats. The most inconsistent thing about Choi's 2005 performance was his playing time. If Choi's inconsistent, so is nearly every other player in baseball. All players go through hot and cold streaks. Why Choi's streaks are magnified compared to others must be due to some bias or something.

129 - from that assesment I conclude that Choi has to have a hot JD Drew batting behind/protecting him in order to get the pitches he needs to contribute. When dropped to down in the order where the #8 hitter is there to protect him Choi can't stand on his own 2 feet.

130. thats the point. The bottom line is that Choi is at least adaquate for 1B. I dont know where this sentiment that Choi floundered last season, his OPS was 789. All were saying is give Choi a chance.

as for the rediculas, he's not a "gamer" or "he just looks uncomfortable at the plate" accusations, its just stupid. How he's hit walk off homeruns, he's a good teamate. He got along great with Milton Bradley, never complained about sitting on the bench while Jason Phillips started at 1B, and always has a smile on, not to mention is a fan favorite at Dodger Stadium, those all sound like "gamer" qualities to me. He doesnt look uncomfortable at the plate. Ive probably watched 95% of Choi's PA's with the Dodgers, and not once have I thought that he looks "uncomfortable at the plate".

132. of course. who wouldnt benefit from that situation? and why change it if its beneficial?

132 Yeah... no one else ever benefited from hitting before or after the best hitter on the team. I'm looking at you Jeff Kent.

132. in April Choi was hitting 259/355/463, all while Drew was hitting .259 with a slug% of .444.

134 Because Koreans who are taller than six foot clog up the basepaths with their walks, can't execute the hit and run, and according to the Book of Tracy, shouldn't hit in the second spot.

I think I figured out Coletti's plan. Mimic the Dan Duquette era Red Sox.

133. besides being adequate, he has an upside still. he's young and has been rather healthy as well, which should be a huge consideration if people are wanting to replace him with Nomar.

132
Even if it were true that "Choi needs Drew behind him" in order to succeed, who cares? Are you saying you don't want a guy hitting 7 HRs in 4 games because there was a good hitter hitting behind him? You only want a guy hitting 7 HRs in 4 games if he has a bad hitter hitting behind him?

127 sanchez101

explain to me why he was benched for over a week immediatly after hitting those 6 homeruns,...

That's a good question. Could it be that in the following games that the Dodgers were facing hard throwing pitchers? I don't know. But from the Cubs to Florida to LA the scouts said that he cannot get around on the plus fastball.

142 Pitchers with funny arm angles most likely.

I'll admit i used to be in the anti-Choi camp, because he does look uncomfortable at the plate--sometimes he barely looks like a major league hitter. However, i agree that Tracy never gave him a chance in the second half, especially since the team was going nowhere. If you take Choi's stats from 2004 and 2005, he got approx 600 AB's, which is about a full MLB season. Over those 600 AB's, he hit 30 HRS, drove in 88 runs, walked 95 times, stuck out 176 times, his OPS were .883 in 2004 with the Marlins, .581 in 2004 with LA, and .789 last year. His overall BA was around .260. Tell me, would you not take a guy in the 7-hole in your line-up who could hit .260, with 25-30 HRS, 75-80 RBI and probably 70-75 walks. Granted, he would strike out 150 times, but this is yout #7 hitter, plus you are paying him next to nothing. As i said, from someone who used to be anti-Choi, I think he should be allowed to play everyday until he proves he can't.

142 And most players can't get around on a "plus" fastball. That's why it's a "plus" fastball instead of a normal fastball.

142. after the series against the Twins when he hit 6 home runs in 3 games, the Dodgers played the Royals, White Sox, and Padres. The only real hard throwing starter on those teams is Contreras and Peavy.

Ive heard sportswriters claim that he couldnt handle good fastballs, but all scouts have conceded is that he has trouble with hard stuff up and in. Either way, is that really a reason to keep him on the bench, Milton Bradley also has problems with hard fastballs, I dont remember him sitting against power pitchers.

143. i think its worth pointing out that Tracy's famous, "im sitting Choi because of the opposing pitcher has a funny arm angle" was in reference to Woody Williams.

Anyone have access to "funny arm angle" batting splits?

131 - I'd take Saenz's inconsistent OPS numbers over Choi's consistent OPS numbers any day. I guess you could call Choi consistent if you want his average to below average production on a consistent basis.

Saenz's inconsistency is actually positive inconsistency. His OPS numbers for the year should have been closer to around the .784 that he put up in July (his season OPS was .804, Choi's was .789). The months where Saenz's OPS numbers were above his season average, they were considerably above that number. Choi had one month where his OPS by month was considerably higher than his season average (August).

You contend that Choi goes through hot and cold streak and that his streaks are magnified. I am not magnifying his streaks at all, rather I am contending that he is an overall bad player.

Maybe Choi needs consistent playing time, but if that's the case, he's not going to get it in LA. He's got Saenz to contend with and if we get Nomar he's playing time should diminish considerably. If we have Nomar & Saenz, his numbers should be very marginal in 06 based on the assumption that he needs consistent playing time and should probably be shipped out.

IMHO, Saenz had a career year in 2005. I think he is a nice bat to have on the bench, has some pop, and can be a productive player if you keep him in the 150-200 AB range.

149 Really, what is the point of talking to you, when you choose to believe one set of numbers then totally discount others? You want to take away Choi's HR binge and Saenz's late season swoon, go right ahead. You have little credibility when you write things like, "I am contending that he is an overall bad player." By any objective measure, he was an average first baseman. Since when was average = bad?

141 - I don't care if he needs protection in order to produce, I am just using that to further my point that he is a bad player and that he can't hit a lick when dropped to the bottom of the order where more often than not he's not going to be given the luxury of getting some protection behind him.

Looking at the team in 06, I'd give it a very small chance of Choi getting some protection in the line-up and would use this to further my point that he will probably not significantly contribute to the team.

147 Thanks for the clarifacation. I just think that that particular episode reflected Tracy's opinion of Choi so well that it's worth bringing up in any "Choi Thought's" thread. When Tracy bring up arm angles as a reason to sit a player, it should be clear to everyone that he's look for reason not to play said player.

149. greenchris

ill take 27 yr old Choi's average yet consistent numbers over 35 yr old Saenz's positively inconsistant numbers.

[128] thanks. i was indeed saying choi is better than burroughs, NOT that that he's somehow better than huff. and yes, [120], i'd rather have choi than casey or klesko or erstad.

For a moment let us assume that we sign Nomar to play first. (You really think Mia Hamm is good looking? She never showed me anything.) Who does Choi have to beat out to keep a spot on the 25 man roster? Phillips, Repko, Edwards...?

152.

so basically youre saying that regardless of numbers and performance, you just flat out dont like Choi?

If we assume that we sign Nomar to play first, Choi will not be around anymore.

151 - Look at 150, that is basically what I am saying. My first post when disecting Saenz's production in 05 contends that he is a platoon player, and I also said that a possible reason why he hit that streak because he tired at the end of the year (see 110). I also thought Saenz's offensive production in 05 was solid and unexpected.

IMO, I don't see Choi as being a good player. I have season seats behind first base and have had them for 15 years now, I went to more than 30 games last year, and I saw a lot of Choi both in person and on TV. I admit, I was impressed when he hit those HR's, and not one time have I discounted his little outburst to support my argument that he is a bad player. Others have tried to state that he hit those because he was batting 2nd, Tracy moved him down in the order, lack of playing time, etc. I'll use those excuses to further my point that he is a bad player and that he probably won't improve in 06. I am merely expressing my opinion about Choi, objective or not, which is that he is an average player at best, and I would prefer to rank him in the below average range.

154 - I said from the start that Saenz is a platoon player, never said full time player. I appreciate your opinion. I think mine is pretty obvious.

157 - Where do you get that from? I've never met the guy, how could I be expected to not like the guy? I think he is an average to below average player based on his production over the last year and a half.

Have to go now...Have fun with this...Nice talking with you guys, Peace everyone!

160:

look at the numbers in 144: "If you take Choi's stats from 2004 and 2005, he got approx 600 AB's, which is about a full MLB season. Over those 600 AB's, he hit 30 HRS, drove in 88 runs, walked 95 times, stuck out 176 times, his OPS were .883 in 2004 with the Marlins, .581 in 2004 with LA, and .789 last year. His overall BA was around .260."

his production is not below average. you just said you would prefer to rank him as a below average player. but the numbers indicate otherwise, so why else do you think he's below average?

on another topic: if colletti does win the nomah sweepstakes he will have continued the depo tradition of shaping one of the most versatile lineups in MLB. with players that can man all the IF positions (mueller, kent, aybar, robles, nomar) as well as a handful of OFers (werth, ledee, cruz, nomah?) capable of covering any OF position without embarrassing themselves.

most of these men are depo's (sigh) but i think we could agree that depo wouldn't kick nomah or mueller out of bed, even if they left crumbs.

[122] fine, even if you like gibbons, if i were the orioles and i had choi, i would at least platoon choi with byrnes. against RHP, it's gibbons in the OF and choi at first, and against LHP it's gibbons at first and byrnes in left.

159 Ooohh... The "I watch more baseball than you" argument. I love that one. Where's Steve?

Nomar at 1st base is better than no nomar at all. I would rather see him fill the hole in lf, and keep the Saenz/Choi platoon at 1st.

Though he's been hurt the past couple of years, he has a proven track record, and returned strong at the end of last year...and he has a lot to prove this year! Sure, he could get injured again - that's very possible, but that's why we need a strong bench.

As for Choi, he doesn't thrill me, but I'm willing to give him another chance 'cause he has shown potential. But, I'm another of those he feel he looks uncomfortable at the plate, and he needs to earn my confidence. I think he could really excel at the plate if he's surrounded by other good hitters instead of the patchwork lineup we had last year.

That's another reason to get Nomar!

The media reports about Nomar playing 1B are somewhat concerning, but the media also reported a firm contract offer to JT Snow. I doubt Colletti has fully made up in his own mind whether or not he will play Nomah at 1B, if Nomah does sign. I haven't seen any firm comments by him on any of this, so for now, I at least won't be too concerned.

WWSH

But the real question about Nomar is: "Would he look comfortable at the plate?"

165 capdodger
The "I watch more baseball than you" argument.

I didn't read that.

167 That's a good point. I'm more likely to believe the Nomahh-to-first rumors when I actually here Mr. Ned say, "Nomar will play first", or when Choi is non-tendered. Since he has neither said something like the former nor done the latter, I'll keep my powder dry. I am encouraged, though, by what Mr. Ned has said repeatedly: that first base is not one of the Dodgers' major problems. That the media can't get it through their heads is not really an issue.

165 Mr. Greenchris played the "season ticket" trump card in support of his opinion that he's a better judge of Choi's talent than the rest of us, regardless of what the stats say. That kind of stuff tends to set others off.

Look, some guys just look awkward. Especially big guys. This is precisely the reason we need to leaven the visual observations of scouts with the cold hard data of production. Kent looks awkward playing 2b, but it turns out he's not nearly as bad as he looks. You want awkward? Look no further than Vlad Guerrero. He runs like he's got a broom handle up his tuchas, and looks bad on pitches he misses all the time. And no one is going to argue that he's not among the best there is. Before you investigate the interior of my esophagus, no, I don't think Choi has any chance to be as good as Vladdy. I'm just using Vlad as an example of how your eyes can deceive you. Look at the stats - they really do tell the whole story, as long as you know which ones to look at (i.e., not batting average or RBIs). There are also, as we know, players who look graceful and athletic who aren't any good. Rey Ordonez is my poster child for this defensively. Lots of Sportscenter moments, but overall not so hot defensively.
JT Snow is another. Lots of diving highlight plays, but not really great range any more.

Nomar is not needed on this team unless they can turn him into a starting pitcher who can go 200+ innings and win 15+ games.

Stan from Tacoma

165.

that argument would be great had i not attended between 25-40 games a year since 02.

Yeah, unless some of the local print boys are getting inside info from Colletti, I see no reason to expect Nomar at 1b. I think they just look at Nomar, see SS, 2b, and 3b filled by guys they respect, and figure, well, it has to be 1b or LF, and since we figure everyone knows Choi stinks, maybe it's first. I choose not to believe it, because it makes no sense. Not only because the Choi/Saenz platoon is plenty more than sufficient, and probably better than Nomar, but also because I don't see the logic of putting Mr. Groin Injury at the position that requires the most sudden stretching. LF is a lot easier on the body from that standpoint. And I'd guess that Nomar can still run, which is LF's major demand. If he can't run, then he'd better be Barry Bonds or Adam Dunn offensively (all HRs and BBs).

171. capdodger

I think that he supported his opinion by what he saw...not just by what he had read.
You can question his ability to judge talent, but to call it a "trump card" because he is a season ticket holder and sees a lot of games is just name calling.

173 Good one, Stan. Hey, why not? He has a great arm...

Naw, he'd probably aggravate the groin fielding his first bunt...

That's it: Choi for Tejada, straight up. We desperately need another shortstop on the team. ;)

If we sign Nomah, but Choi is tendered a contract, and Colletti continues to play his cards close to his vest regarding positions, do we assume that it's not yet time to bring out the pitchforks?

Eventually this will all sort itself out, but I think we might have to wait a while before we're sure of Big Choi's status.

WWSH

171 Which is exactly what I'm doing.

Do not have a link as I read it on one of my sports boards but looks like there is another ex-Dodger headed to Japan...

according to Hochi Sports, Kazuhisa Ishii has decided to re-sign with Yakult.

180

but i went to relatively the same amount of games and have come up with a different conclusion about choi.

Not using season ticket argument nor the I watch more baseball than you argument, just feel like I am getting attacked a little bit and trying to give some credibility to my baseball opinions. Am I the only one that feels that Choi is below average? I have seen plenty of ther posts saying basically that.

I never said I watch more baseball than you, nor the fact that I have season tickets make my argument more credible than anyone elses. Rather merely using that to say that I have seen Choi as well as many other players during my tenure as a baseball fan, and my assesment of an average or below average player is based on just that. Is that soooo wrong?

183. greenchris
Did you see 176 ?

182. Big Game
If you agree with him then it's not the "trump card".

Oh God, let us unload Choi if it will prevent us from having this discussion ever again...

Seriously, I figure a gimpy Nomar at first would be a downgrade, a healthy one possibly a very slight upgrade, and the whole thing moot because he likely won't play there if he does for us at all. I don't mind Choi, but the rabid attachment some people here have for him seems utterly irrational. He's--at best--a very patchy player with canteloupe-sized holes in his swing who can hit the ball a long, long way occasionally. Not often enough for my own liking, but we could afford to keep him if we had a legitimate power-hitting outfielder. We don't (yet) and Nomar is probably not-quite-legitimate-enough in that regard either. But Choi is not--he will not become--David Ortiz either. "Sufficient" he may be, but he is not by a long shot the best we could have at that position.

165 - You guys are remarkable..."Mr. Greenchris played the "season ticket" trump card in support of his opinion that he's a better judge of Choi's talent than the rest of us, regardless of what the stats say. That kind of stuff tends to set others off"

Please see 183, I am not trying to do what you are accusing me of. Yes, because I can afford season tickets and you low-life's...Oh, forget it...

J/K btw

184 - yes, thank you

183 I think the reaction was to your (implied) preference for personal observation over stats. We've all observed Choi (and everyone else). Frankly, I think you see more on TV than you do at the game, no matter how good your seats, what with replays and multiple angles and whatnot. But this is a community that values the objective over the subjective (or at least as an important supplement to the subjective), so anything that sounds like "I know what I saw" raises a red flag, even if your intent was not to denigrate the objective.

But I for one appreciate your point of view. You are decidedly NOT making the most infuriating sort of argument, which is to focus on one or two plays as sufficient evidence that Choi is no good. The singular of "data" is "anecdote." Your approach has been, so far, to look at Choi's entire body of work, but with a different measuring stick (visual observation) than a lot of us prefer (performance data).

Keep it coming, greenchris. Reasonable and polite disagreement is always interesting.

185 - Good point, I agree with that assesment and given the choice that seems to be before us: Choi/Saenz platoon vs. Nomar vs. OF Free Agent (Sanders, Lofton) I am undecided.

189 - Thanks, I am not sure how much I have left in me...have to go XMAS shopping soon. Already an hour late thanks to this little debate!

Haha such a nice guy is such a polarizing figure like Bono...oh lord how I hate Bono.

*figure, like Bono...

I want Nomar on this team. A) He is a quality guy in the clubhouse B) He is a gamer and will bring a spark C) His wife is a hottie. Let the season play out and let him find his position.

I do suggest that we change the name of the page to Dodger Thoughts on why Jon loves Hee Seop Choi

The anti-Choi filibustering is reaching comic proportions. Willie Stargell had some great years at first. We'll just sign him.

176... Silly premature striking of the enter key...

I'll cop to the name calling charge, but I'd do it again. I've got every game I watched this season archived and on file. Does that make me a better judge of talent? No, and just because he saw 40 some odd games in person he's not better than you, me, or Jon. My season ticket jab It's nothing to do with being a season ticket holder. I live in DC, so it wouldn't do me that much good if I had season tickets. I did see Choi hit a mammoth shot out of RFK though FWIW.

My problem is with the argument Greenchris was making. He was seeing the argument flow against him as the objective evidence stacked up against his opinion. This is wont to happen here when someone starts in on this particular topic. So he pulled the only thing he had left: That Choi is bad because he seems clumsy in GC's opinion. This type of argument has been the refuge of scoundrels in the past. It's somewhat annoying to see a new handle pop up everycouple of days and have the argument reahashed. The argument discounts good games Choi may have had when GC was not in attendace, (ie Choi's fabulous defensive game agins the Mets.)

As GoBears said in 175 many productive ballplayers can look somewhat unseemly. The eyes can be tricky, and it's best not to trust them. This lack of trust in subjective observation should go both ways. Many, myself inc., belived that JT was a bunt-happy lunatic last season. Sadly, as shown at Dodgermath ("Dep for Pres" on the sidbar) this wasn't the case. This is why the stats are important. They can, if we let them, clear up any misconceptions about players, managers, or teams. If we ignore them, than we're just going on gut, which is another way of saying "guessing".

189 Has expounded on what I was getting at in 176 and later in 196.

191 Good luck with the shopping!

196 -- I'll cop to the name calling charge

Why? Because someone told you to? You called that guy out for exactly the right reason. We all watch a lot of baseball, that's why we're here. It is used as a trump card, it is nothing but condescension, and it should be derided when attempted.

181- How funny now they have two horrible pitchers with the last name of Iishi.

O shi.

Perhaps I'm confusing Warren and Greenchris, but I could have sworn one of them complained that Choi was inconsistent. Then when someone showed numbers to prove that Saenz was even more so, then he reponded by saying that he still preferred Saenz's inconsistency. Why not just come out and say, "My mind is made up, and no amount of data and logic will persuade me?"

199 Which is why I'd still do it again.

202 -- It's completely useless. We could all just pull out the list as long as our arms of all the things that prove our baseball fanaticism. Well, duh. Welcome to this website.

"I've watched a lot of baseball and I think that Hee Seop Choi will become the next Willie McCovey. He has cat-like reflexes and the swing of Ted Williams." Helpful, ain't it?

201 Warren was carrying the flag for that arguement but GC picked it up in 110.

Not only does he seem clumsy when watching him about 40 times with my seats directly to his left, but IMO his numbers are average to below average, and I would rate him near the bottom out of all available 1B in the majors.

IMO, Saenz is a solid platoon guy, but I would not make the same assesment for Choi. Many of you are saying he is not a solid platoon guy because he hasn't been given a fair shot. I take the other side fo the fence.

CAPDODGER, So what if he hit a mammoth shot in RFK. 330 ft or 500 ft, it's still a HR isn't it? Your statement here is basically the same problem that you have with my claims (observations vs. statistical analysis)...please don't make the same mistake I already made, and if I were you I would retract that statement IMMEDIATELY!

Your goon answered. 165

204 -- I have read on this very website that Paul LoDuca is consistent. Consistent is code for "I like you."

203 (sarc) Who's to say he won't? (/sarc)

"The sum of the square roots of any two sides of an isosceles triangle is equal to the square root of the remaining side!"

BTW, thanks for the shopping well wishes! Happy Holidays

205 You missed the point about the RFK HR. It was just one homerun. It doesn't matter how far it went or loud it was. It cleared the fence. That, and that it shows in the stats, is what matters.

If Hee Seop should be non-tendered on Tuesday, we will need to search for another unappreciated, better-than-given-credit-for poster boy or the posts to this blog will go down by 50%. Any nominees?

210 You too!

212 Willy Aybar? With Jon's approval of course.

214 -

Can we find somebody with a larger sample size?

(206) I just needed to wait for nightfall so that my FJT spotlight could be silhouetted against the clouds.

211 - Then why say it was "mammoth", that was entirely observational and should not have been stated.

Good luck with the spotlight

215 We wouldn't need a new posterboy. We could all start complaing about Mr. Ned, and how he discounts new-fangled computers and numbers.

Drew is one of my favorite Dodgers so this may just be a paranoid thought; however Ned made some off-handed comment in his first press conference about needing to have a chat with JD and then announced that the longest meeting he had with anyone on the team was with Drew. I'm not sure that JD portrays the "guts and gumption" personna that Ned wants to have on this team.

In other words, although I admit this is a little far fetched, can anyone out there see Ned signing Nomah, Lofton and/or Sanders and then trying to move Drew somewhere for a pitcher?

This thread has convinced me that I want no part of Nomar. Because, without a doubt, he is the most uncomfortable looking hitter at the plate I've ever seen. Has anyone watched him? He looks like he has a combination of OCD and Tourette's. He must be horrible!

207 Steve

Not really. I think you're consistent. :)

220 -- Only people who watch a lot of baseball can make those kinds of observational judgments. Now get back to your Strat-o-Matic!

Is Nomar the guy who has to adjust his batting gloves like 6 times each AB?

221 -- ok, that made me laugh.

217 But observations can be deceiving. Someone who went to that game would have thought that the Dodgers had a lot of power threats, which by August was far from the truth. LA of LA batters hit 4 homeruns in that game, including soloshots by Repko, Kent, Choi (which checking the archives wasn't that big, it barely cleared the fence in RFK's somewhat deep right field), and a two-run job by Phillips.

Nat's fans were turning to me asking if this was normal. I said yes for Kent and Choi, but the others surprised me completely. Why was I able to say that? I had the statistics on hand.

BTW... your assertion that Hee's slower around the bag is slightly supported by FRAA for 2005: -4. But Hee was also 6 runs above average offensively. For replacement level salary, that's not bad.

214. Aybar has 696 games of experience in professional baseball. Is that a big enough sample size?

226 -

I was speaking about a bigger major league sample size, but I could easily get on the Aybar bandwagon.

Having said that, Tuesday has not yet arrived and we certainly can't be sure that Hee Seop won't be with us on Wednesday.

219 - Are you nominating JD Drew for the DT posterboy?

223 - Yep... It's a good thing though. That way you can get a beer between pitches.

205- but IMO [Choi's] numbers are average to below average, and I would rate him near the bottom out of all available 1B in the majors.

Granting your premise, does this make any sense, internally? If his numbers are average to below average, why would you rate him near the bottom of the group of which he is average to below average? You know, instead of in the middle?

Second, what numbers inspired your opinion? Since the ones that are used for comparing players to the average have Choi above average. His OPS+ last year was 110, ten points above average. His fielding numbers were slightly above average, IIRC. So, unless it is your pleasure to admit that your opinion of his numbers contradict the inherant meaning of his actual numbers, I don't see dragging them in to it. You don't like Choi. Fair enough. I don't like women's soccer, but I don't see the point of trying to prove it's an average to below average sport. I just don't like it. See?

Choi isn't even the worst first baseman in Los Angeles. That honor goes to his neighbor to the immediate south.

219 then announced that the longest meeting he had with anyone on the team was with Drew.

Have you ever heard JD talk? It's like watching paint dry. Verrrrry delibbbbberrrrrrrate. Colletti, on the other hand, speaks quickly, but ad nauseum.

So you got a slow-talker and a long-talker. No wonder it was a long conversation. I wouldn't worry about it.

227. ya, i know, it just irks me to here people talk about young guys just beginning their MLB career and hearing how their "unknown" or "inexperienced" as if the minor leagues dont mean or count for anything.

Well, at least when Phillips is officially non-tendered.

231 Maybe Colletti wants a quick-talking team. If you can't draw a walk, at least talk the talk?

228 -

Drew has had far too much success to be the new poster boy. We're looking for someone with talent that only DT posters can appreciate and who has been denied appropriate playing time by the baseball establishment.

Torey Lovullo

230. Hey! Erstad plays his butt off and he's a great guy. I mean, look, he flattened Estrada, thats a guy I want on my team. The guy just knows how to play the game and most importantly, he knows how to win. Bottom line, thats all that counts, you can have all the silly stats in the world, I care about winning.

233. somewhere ryan freel is laughing

On (sort of) a side note: Don't the dodgers have a better picture of Nomahh to put on the front page? In the picture they have, he looks like he's being jammed, or checking his swing, and you can't see half of his face. How am I supposed to like the new players if I can't pick them out of a lineup?

232 -

Minor league numbers certainly count for something, but major league history has many examples of minor league hall of famers who couldn't make it in the bigs.

237 -- You have some kinda knack for that sort of thing.

237 MLB needs to create a new coaching position: Scrappy Coach. Or, if you prefer, Grit Coach. Then guys like Erstad could have jobs they actually deserve.

240. very true, i just dont like it when they use that as an excuse to write-off the years of work and developement that players put in the minor leagues, especially when managers like Dusty Baker use it as an excuse to play the likes of Neifi Perez and Jose Macias.

241. im in the Bill Plascke school of Journalism and Sports Analysis

Bill Plaschke has watched a lot of baseball.

229 - Numbers are average to below average(My opinion on his statistics), I would rank him near the bottom (Strictly my opinion based on a number of factors discussed herein, see posts 100 - current).

Numbers to base my opinion on, mostly his AVG, OBP, & SLG which were used when this discussion began when someone else tried to counter my analysis of Saenz & Choi. See pre post #100. OPS was brought up much later in the posts.

Hope that helps you understand my side a little bit, if not...read up! Happy Holidays

231 -

LOL - Good point. They might actually have to push back game time to 7:55 this year. With slow-talk Drew, long-talk Coletti and slow-drawl Grady gathered around the batting cage, batting practice will have to be extended.

WHO WANTS CHOI AT 1B THIS YEAR?

I think everyone knows where I stand

244 Whereas Billy Beane skips most games. So what does that tell you?

Is there no end to the irrational prejudice against Red Ryder and his peacemaker?

245 Numbers to base my opinion on, mostly his AVG, OBP, & SLG which were used when this discussion began when someone else tried to counter my analysis of Saenz & Choi. See pre post #100. OPS was brought up much later in the posts.

Do you mean OPS+?

245 - You used avg, obp, and slg to make your analysis? Then OPS was brought up? obp+slg=?........Not too much analysis, huh?

It's funny that this thread is so Choi-centric. The other guy whose job is jeopardized by Nomar is Jayson Werth. (I realize he won't start the season.) Are you all really ready to give up on that guy? Is his upside so much less than Choi's?

252 -

Jayson runs funny, but the hole in his swing is smaller than Choi's :)

Matt Stairs
Dmitri Young
Sean Casey
John Olerud
Shea Hillenbrand
Rafael Palmeiro
Adam LaRoche
Ryan Klesko
Ben Broussard
Tino Martinez
Eric Hinske
Travis Lee
Lance Niekro
Kevin Millar
Aubrey Huff
Justin Morneau
Brad Eldred
Doug MinkyWinky
Daryle Ward
JT Snow
Mike Lamb
Darin Erstad
Scott Hatteberg
Phil Nevin
Jim Thome

252 Isn't Werth injured and out for some extended time at the beginning of next season? Or am I confusing my papier-mâché outfielders?

Numbers are average to below average(My opinion on his statistics), I would rank him near the bottom

Ah, well here's where the rabbit goes into the hat. Statistics are facts. Average is average. Below average is below average. You can have an opinion on whether his stats are good enough to warrant a starting job, but you can't have an opinion about whether he's below or above average. He either is or he isn't.

The only way to square that circle is to differ over WHICH statistics are the important ones. If you believe in batting average, then Choi is below average. IF you believe in OPS, then he's not. And so on. But the point of sabermetrics is not simply to introduce alternative statistics, but to find better ones, stats that correlate better (when aggregated with winning.

256 Choi = many, many K's

Or, here's another interpretation. Are you saying that Choi is average to below average overall (as a player), which puts him near the bottom for a first baseman? That would be consistent. I'd still disagree, but at least that would make sense, and take the steam out of Andrew's objection in 229.

245- I read the thread. Sorry if I wasn't clear: The whole point of keeping statistics is so that we don't each have to come up with make believe opinions of them. The thing speaks for itself; it's not valid to impose an opinion of stats that counters the plain meaning of the stat itself.

And, while I'm being a nudge, your opinion, first expressed, had nothing to do with BA (except with falshes of spiting on his BA in June; cherry pick, much?). It was that you didn't think he looked comfortable at the plate. That's a valid opinion, as far as it goes, and isn't demonstrably false, as is your stated opinion that his stats are average to below average. The only problem with that opinion is that you expect it to be taken seriously.

97. Screwgie (countering my claim that Saenz was great at the plate in 05)
95 "I think he (Choi) lacks confidence at the plate and in the field... Saenz was great at the plate in 05" (my post)

2005 stats:

Choi . 336 OBP .453 SLG .253 AVG 15 HR
Seanz .325 OBP .480 SLG .263 AVG 15 HR

Discounting biased perception, how can Seanz be "great" at the plate while Choi "lacks confidence"?
-----

Numbers where brought up by Screwgie, my analysis of Saenz's month by month production was brought up based on each of the numbers stated by Mr. Screwgie to counter his claim.

Perhaps those who are trying to jump into the discussion at post 200 - current should go back and start reading this thread from the beginning. If you have already done so and continue to not understand my analysis...I am sorry, I guess I am an idiot and should not be posting on this site anymore.

Capdodger, I was responding to Screwgie's analysis based on those stats individually.

Straight (or cumulative) OPS analysis was brought into the mix by someone else, I countered their claim as well by saying that Saenz's production was positively inconsistent in 2005 and I would also say it was a pleasant surprise. I like Saenz in a platoon situation @ 1B.

258 If you put together a team of 50th percentile players when compared to all players, wouldn't you have a 50th percentile team?

258- Traitor.

The spitting at his June stats was because a post which said that he shows flashes of greateness in July when he hit the 6 HR's. He actually hit those in June and I pointed out that aside from the 6HR's his BA for the month was around the mendoza line.

Aside from his hits, he didn't hit so good.

260- Nobody is asking you not to post. In the first place, only one person has that right and I've never seen him exercise it. In the second, I'm not saying you're a bad person. Just that I disagree with you, and that some of your points aren't sustainable.

Now. You're comparing Choi against Saenz only. Are you saying that Saenz is exactly average (demonstrably false) which puts Choi below average? Otherwise, you're still cherry picking.

Sorry, I think I'm not understanding. What does "postively inconsistent" mean? Inconsistency just means variability in the stats over time - in that case, on a monthly basis. "Positively" or "negatively" is about bias (statistically speaking), not inconsistency.

258 - Yes, average to below average would be less than 50% which would put him towards the bottom of all 1B.

Again, my opinion on his stats are that he is average to below average. My overall opinion of him when including other factors (my opinion of his confidence at the plate, etc.) is that he is towards the bottom of the league out of all available 1B.

I had a cold in April; Saenz's stats that month didn't count.

Credibility -- kapowie.

265- I like Saenz as a platoon 1B. Numbers were solid up until Sept. IMO, I attribute this to getting tired. Maybe better suited around 200 AB's or so.

Positively inconsistent. Look at his Averages for the season, and then compare with the month by month analysis.

LEAVING NOW, NO REALLY!

But only Saenz's good months. Or bad months. Or something.

260 I only asked if you meant OPS or OPS+ because they're diffenet stats. OPS is straight "Onbase average plus slugging". OPS+ is normalized to adjust for the leauge and express it as a percentage.

Now that we're rewriting history to further our own biased agendas, can anyone tell me what Cesar Izturis's OPS would have been had he not hit that lucky homerun on Opening day against Jason Schmidt?

252 Werth had surgery on his wrist done a week or so ago and his hand will be in a cast up until around spring training. I think he's a big question mark to be ready by the start of the season.

273
No, but I can tell you that if you take away that homerun and his other homerun, he would have finished the season without a single homerun.

275 -- Add that to Izturis's confidence at the plate, and he's clearly one of the bottom at his position.

not the Choi chat again. Unknown racism at its finest.

114 Just to play out the string ...

I don't agree that Choi should be starting over any of the players you named, save for Sean Burroughs, who doesn't play 1B. I'll even allow that Choi might post better stats than Erstad, but Choi could never play on that team (i.e., for Mike Scioscia).

The spirit of Milton Bradley remains.

How can one look at Steve's list of 1B on 254 and conclude that a relatively young left-handed power hitter with a strong on base % that outhit and outfielded many of those names is somehow at the bottom of the list?

Other than...

Minkywinky over Choi. Right. Got it.

Re: 258

Although I think Choi should start at 1B, a 110 OPS+ at a traditional power position for a league average fielder isn't actually all that much to get excited about. I know Choi looks okay in the NL (I think Jon had some figures on this), but just because we don't have as many traditional slugger corner IFs in the league today doesn't mean that 1B isn't still a traditional power position. I think it's fine in our circumstances, especially when you've got a potential HOFer at 2B and a stud at SS, but as a 1B at least, I think it's defensible to say that Choi's raw numbers have not been what one would normally expect out of that position.

I actually think those numbers should be adjusted for misuse by Tracy, and the hope that Choi will improve, but really, the way certain stats were bandied around here on this thread as objective truth to support one position seems a bit much at times. The raw stats only show that Choi has so far been an okay player--his career OPS+ is 107 and his fielding Rate2 is 99. His career EqA is 275, league average being set at 260. Assuming one didn't have a Kent and Furcal in the IF, and that Choi didn't improve (a debatable but possible proposition), Choi would be a below-average 1B. That's all the raw objective numbers say so far.

WWSH

See, this is really not that hard. Nicely said, WWSH.

still a traditional power position

I like this phrase. Still a tradition, after all these years.

[281] minky's got a ring! he must be good. same goes for erstad. duh.

anyone watch the clipper game? livingston looks really good, and wilcox had a great game. can't wait till maggette gets back.

It's not that OPS+ is the be all/end all stat. It's just that you can't say a guy who has a higher than average OPS+ has, in your opinion, a bellow average one. That's the only point I meant to make. Choi is not Albert Pujols. I'm not confused on this point. He's just also not a statistically below average player. He's just not. Really.

282 Yup. Good points all. Which is why I think he should get the job, until he shows that the Tracy factor was a myth, and he really is mediocre. Since his only sustained stretch of playing time (first half in Florida) corresponds to his best production, I'm betting that he moves well into the "above average" category. It's a bet, not a certainty. And "above average" doesn't imply "all-star," but it's simple enough to see that LF and SP are higher priorities.

[282] who cares if choi is an average or slightly below-average first baseman? are we getting someone who is clearly above average anytime soon? a pujols or d. lee or berkman or dunn? no? then the issue is moot. if it's between choi and nomar, the answer is choi, especially when you take money into account. if it's one of those clearly above-average guys, then i'll be happy to ship choi somewhere else, but at this point he's the best option.

282 - But let's not forget to return to the heart of this discussion, which was only comparing existing Dodgers to Garciaparra, revealing that the current (as opposed to the halcyon) Garciaparra does not appear to have more offense than Choi.

Somehow, no matter how narrowly I might tailor my argument, some see it as me having this all-consuming passion for Choi. I don't know what to do about this problem, except perhaps go on Oprah.

He said he thought Choi should start at 1B.

some see it as me having this all-consuming passion for Choi.

As if that would be worse than the all-consuming passion that would lead one to conclude that they would start Minkywinky instead of Choi at first base.

286-288 - Like you were saying...

Re: 286

Fine, but if one could historical data for OPS+ for all MLB first basemen for the last 25 years or so, and compared Choi's career numbers to them, I think he would then look "below average" according to his position. That's the comparison that actually makes sense, since Choi is even at 1B only an average fielder and can play no other position.

BTW, one of the singular ironies of Choi is that the scouting community was once very high on his defense IIRC.

I actually think Choi should definitely play at 1B, but he's become so wrapped up in our justified distaste for Tracy and numbskulls like Plaschke/Simers that sometimes some of the arguments can get sloppy around here.

WWSH

Agreed, Choi's record stands on its own where it is, but it is time to make the doughnuts.

294 - Lines like that always remind me of the recurring donut runs in "Midnight Run."

Re: 294

Agreed, there really is no point in discussing this anymore.

I really do wish we'd get an official annoucement from Nomah saying he'll sign (I think he will with LA), paired with comments at a news conference about how much he's looking forward to playing at LF and interacting with the fans in the bleachers.

It'll let us all rest a little easier, but we'll see what happens...

WWSH

Agreed, there really is no point in discussing this anymore.

As long as Choi-haters have auto-text macros set on their computers, we'll be having this discussion.

293- The only problem I have with what your saying is that it wasn't the argument being had. It should have been, it's much less of a Mad Hatter's tea party argument, but it wasn't the one being had; so, criticizing other comments for failing to address it isn't fair.

Maybe there are people who are pro-Choi by way of being anti-Plaschke. Maybe there are people who are anti-Choi by way of hating Koreans. But imputing either motive, here, seems unfair.

Why is a Minkywinky like an Erstad Desk?

"you're saying", that should be. I really did mean that, by the way. I'm only not addressing it because I don't have the numbers. By which I mean I haven't formed an opinion of the numbers.

285
Just got back from the game and it was great. Best game by Wilcox I've ever seen. Kamen looked like he had the flu not Cutino as he was a step slow everywhere. The Kid is back and I'm looking forward to more passes like the one he threw to Wilcox which set the crowd buzzing.

Just for fun I ran the Hardball Times stats for 1st baseman for all of baseball with 100 or more at bats and sorted by RC/G.
Saenz came in 24th at 6.2
Choi came in 51st at 4.8

For the rest of our lineup
2nd Kent - 2nd/7.8
SS Furcal - 8th/5.9
3b Mueller - 10th/6.0
Aybar - 1st/10.3
Perez(JFF) 8th/6.4
C Navarro - 31st/4.1
OF RF - Drew - 4th/7.8
CF - Cruz - 1st/7.7 Dodger at bats only
/4.3 Arizona at bats only
Milton- 15th/5.8
Repko 40th/3.8
LF - Werth 36th/5.0

Cruz is listed as a CF because he had more at bats in Arizona as a CF. I'm guessing.

287. GoBears
Since his only sustained stretch of playing time (first half in Florida) corresponds to his best production, I'm betting that...

Aren't those numbers even dubious? I heard that his production fell way off the last month that he was there. Is that true?

For the record, I think that Choi should have been given playing time last year to find out if his potential would amount to anything.

Jon, when you're not here do you go back and read all the posts or just spot check through some of them?

Yeesh. I took 5 kids to see Harry Potter today, and I think I had more fun than you people had here. Jon needs an FAQ.

303. why would his last month's numbers matter more than his first? Even if it's true, couldnt you say that those numbers underestimate him because he didnt get a chance get out of his slump.

anyways, here are his month by month numbers with the Marlins:

April: 295/417/738
May: 221/344/403
June: 292/395/472
July: 284/404/419

305 I helped my parents deal with an exploding toilet, and I think I had more fun, too.

couldnt you say that those numbers underestimate him because he didnt get a chance get out of his slump.

Yeah, you could. There again, there are two ways to look at it. He wasn't given a chance to break out of a slump or the pitchers caught up to him.
Hitters are always making adjustments to pitchers and vice versa. We'll never know if
Choi can successfully make adjustments to be a good hitter unless he plays.

308
... except that Choi really didnt slump towards the end of his tour with the Marlins. It seems that Choi was able to adjust to the pitchers in in June after a bad May in 2004.

[302] i wanted to have some fun too, so i ran the GPA of major league first basemen. saenz was #28 at .277 and choi was #31, tied with #30 rafael palmiero at .275. beneath both of them were such previously discussed luminaries as:

carlos pena
dmitri young
ben broussard
sean casey
adam laroche
kevin millar
doug mientkiewicz
niekro and snow
erstad

etc, etc...

and on the other side, the list ahead of them included, as well as the stars and some good regulars, some guys who didn't play all that much, including kotchman, michael jacobs, walter young, and platoon guys like eddie perez and mark sweeney (so i guess bob might have a point with that one after all).

[310] and oh yeah, DHs are on that list too (ortiz, hafner)

my point was that i think they're pretty close to average.

I like all of the moves we've made so far (although I am very concerned about starting pitching) and am hopeful that we get Garciaparra.

With Garciaparra, Meuller, Izzy and Kent - we've got 4 players that can play multiple positions. Given that we really aren't ready to bring up our minor leaguers AND that (generally) we are unsure about the health/ability of some of our other regulars (Drew, Werth, Choi), I think it's important that we have some flexibility. We've got that now and but will have it more so with Garciaparra. (Plus, he's going to be cheap and for a short term.)

Generally, I like the moves we've made. None of the pitchers in this year's free agent crop were worth big money, so I'm glad we didn't sign any of them. Although a trade for Beckett would have been good, I wouldn't have wanted to give up players in our system of relative value to Ramirez/Sanchez.

So, in conclusion, we aren't where we want to be overall BUT we've made the best moves we could.

I loved DePo and was very angry that he was fired but Colletti has done a good job.

... except that Choi really didnt slump towards the end of his tour with the Marlins

Seems you're right. I'm wondering where I heard that from.

What's that line about the soft bigotry of low expectations? Not that Colletti is the anti-Christ; he's just not done anything, yet, that was particularly impressive. Has he?

313. "journalists" like Buster Olney, Ken Rosenthal, and Bill Plascke (you can throw Joe Morgan and Jim Tracy in as well) have been eminating all sorts of anti-Choi propaganda, including: Choi was given up by the Marlins and the Cubs, Choi cant play defense, Choi is unathletic, Choi is a negative factor in the clubhouse, Choi has no bat speed, Choi can't handle "funny arm angles", the average fan doesnt like Choi, the current front office doesnt like Choi. There are probably others. Choi has his flaws, like anyother player, but for some reason many influential people just plain dont like him and are willing to propogate outright lies or missrepresentations about him. This is why commentors here get so animated when people repeat those accusations around here.

314. ... signing Furcal to a contract of reasonable length, signing Bill Mueller, getting value for Milton Bradley are all fairly impressive feats for a new GM. Also consider his non-moves, such as passing on the pierre and soriano trades. Of course all this is up to interpretation(sp?)

Wilcox was amazing today. He was all of the place. He played very good defense and was grabbing every rebound in sight. I don't think I've ever seen him play that hard.

Livingston is an amazing talent. Hopefully he can stay healthy.

Nomar would be a nice pickup, as a LF...

I'm not sure how I feel about Lofton. He's 38 years old, but he had a nice year last season and is an above average defender. A Jayson Werth/Kenny Lofton platoon might be pretty productive. I'd rather the Dodgers find a longterm solution in center though (not Damon).

The infamous message board on dodgers.com has posters claiming that because Mia Hamm toured Dodger Stadium, Nomah is probably leaning toward us.

We'll see what happens...

Returning to an issue someone brought up many posts ago, does anyone know what exactly the timetable is on Werth? All I remember is that he wouldn't be reading for the start of Spring Training. But is he on track in theory to be ready for opening day? I for one don't think we should at all count on him, but I would be curious to know his status.

WWSH

316- He signed a couple free agents. Paying more for a shorter deal is a strategy, not an accomplishment. He didn't sign some of the worst FAs, fine, but refusing to stick your own tongue in an electrical outlet is not worth extra credit. Value for Bradley? I hope we all think so in three years, but it's early for saying so, now.

Re: 319

Actually, considering the ill-considered moves a lot of GMs make, not zapping himself should be a bonus point, especially in this media market. I remember Plaschke eviscerating Ned after about ten days for not having made a Beckett-like blockbuster.

The Bradley trade I think was driven as much by ownership, so I'm not going to count that, and besides, I just wasn't sold on Milton.

Anyhow, we've still got plenty of off-season left.

WWSH

320- You know what? You're right on this one. He has done a good job relative to the garbage that other GMs do. I'm not sold on him yet, but so far, he's done a relatively good job. Low expectations: yes. But not bigotry since all expectations are low.

299 - When will Larry Lucchino's hitmen hunt down MinkyWinky in Kansas City and just steal that damn ball from him already?

314 "particularly impressive"? The final judgement comes much later. We're still evaluating the majority of DePodesta's deals.

But as of right now, I'd rather have Ned signing Furcal for three years than signing Jerrod Washburn for four years at the same rate of pay. So he's better than Bavasi.

He's avoided overpaying for Matt Morris, which makes him better than his boss. He's also a lot better than Allan Baird. How would your stomach feel if you had to listen to your team's GM brag about signing Paul Bako, Doug Mientkewicz and Scott Elarton? Woohoo.

I also am glad Ned was able to convince Mueller to play for LA for fewer years than Pittsburgh had on the table for him. If he manages to get Nomar to come to LA for a short-term deal instead of the Yankees, Indians or Rangers, that will be impressive on a purely comparative basis with three other GMs.

Hiring Grady Little--there's no way to tell about that one. Objectively, there are not going to be any objective measures to say whether Fregosi or Skinner or Valentine or Collins would have done a better job.

The Bradley deal is his most controversial, but there is a school of thought that says he was lucky to get anything at all for him. (I was one who thought you could get Zito for Bradley; obviously I must be from the Chuck LaMar school of GMing.)

He's also done something for which I am very grateful. He's crowded out Frank and Jamie McCourt. We haven't had to put up with any of their idiotic pronouncements since Colletti came on board. That might not be impressive, but it is appreciated.

If you think all of these deals would have worked out just that way no matter who was GM, if you're a determinist, then sure, I guess Colletti isn't that impressive. But I think he's approached this offseason with a strategy, to upgrade the team at minimal cost, without losing prospects. Arriving at that strategy after just a few days in the job, and then being able to implement it flawlessly (so far)...I'm impressed.

323 paragraph 3 I meant 'ex-boss,' obviously.

I hope Nomar hurries up and signs with us... he haunted my dreams last night.

323 - I only have a minute as I have Tivo'ed the Bronocs game and must finish watching, but I think what you are seeing is a very smooth collective in operation here... don't forget the other 3 Heads here. I admit I was shocked at the DePo firing and I thought it was handled poorly. However, I think Frank got exactly what he wanted: a media spokesmen, deal-maker type for the 4th Head. I think Ng, Smith, and White are the true talent evaluators and Ned is smart enough to know this. I truly believe they all sit down and discuss their options thoroughly and then Ned is simply the front man. I say "simply" but I think he is performing his role exceptionally well so far and is good negotiator. Do not sell the importance of salesmanship short.

Nobody even bothered to mention Shawn Green and his herculean 113 OPS+

252,

The difference between the Choi and Werth situations is that regardless of who starts in LF, Werth will be added to the roster once he comes off the DL, and will be "in the mix".

However, if another first baseman is signed, Choi will be playing elsewhere once Spring Training comes around (or perhaps already next week).

323 - Good post. I'm optimistic that Colletti will continue to make reasonable moves while protecting the farm system. I'd like to see the addition of Nomah become official, and play him in LF, then add a decent SP.

Mr. Ned - Sign Nomah now!

Who cares if Choi gets busted up-and-in. So did Shawn Green, along with change-ups low and away. Everybody has weaknesses. But with Choi, you get one of the best Eyes in the game along with power. Yes, he will strike out, yes he will look retarded. But... in any situation, he COULD hit a home run.:-) I think hes a perfect platoon partner for Tomato. To me, Garciaparra in LF with Choi/Saenz is ideal.

What do you all think Coletti's "partners" (Smith, NG) think about Choi? Are they backing Hee? Maybe not?

We can only hope Choi as a great offseason, comes in Spring Training in-shape and has a heckuva spring and forces Ned to get him in. Forget Izturis at second, trade him. Hes so overrated.

And please, I am begging, do not sign Lofton. Sure he hit over .300 last year, whatever. I would much rather see Ethier (which, who I think will be a solid contributor).

304 - I read 99.9 percent of them.

331
Whose posts comprise the 0.1%?

332 I'd bet it's the times where we put up 500 posts on food or television shows he doesn't like.

If I've been on vacation during a series of open chat marathons, I might let one go.

I've started as many of the TV tangents as anyone here.

Would be interesting to know if McCourt was pushing Lowe last year and Nomar this year. As I said earlier, I don't think Nomar is a good fit for the Dodgers. He is injury prone and the Dodgers already have enough brittle players. He is a question mark wherever he would play on defense. I would rather see the money spent on starting pitching.

Stan from Tacoma

Rudy Seanez is supposedly close to signing with the Red Sox (Rosenthal quoted his agent, and Rosenthal easily has the highest batting average this offseason). I know we all wanted him after it was announced the Dodgers were interested

There's little worse than listening to Steiner go on and on about the pronunciation of "Seanez."

332 If I was Jon, I know whose posts I'd skip. :)

(Not you D4P)

Off topic, but has an anyone picked up the 2006 Bill James Handbook? I've never got one before, and while there were some interesting stats, it infuriated me for the most part. Half the book lists stats that are avialable anywhere, traditional stats, lefty righty splits, etc.

The part that got to me was the "league leaders" section. It's filled with tons of interesting stats like 2nd base pivot percentage and first pitch taken percentage. However, it only lists the top 10 in the league. Why couldn't I get these numbers for every player in the league? Especially in a book like this, why do the normal stats get the emphasis, and the unique stats get pushed to the back burner. To make a league leaders list, you need to compute the numbers for every player anyway, why not make them avilable? Or am I just whining for whining sake?

If you were Jon, you'd skip your own posts.

Scott Boras is Dan Kolb's agent. That's hilarious.

bull's eye or paranoid?

You're paranoid for skipping your own posts? That, unsurprisingly, makes no sense.

now, we know why.

Why is a raven like a writing desk...indeed.

[327] i was actually going to bring up shawn green at some point but decided that that horse has biodegraded already, it's so dead.

346 -- It's probably best. The vortex was still on. In fact, it appears to still be on.

Nomaaaah looks to be a done deal:

http://redsox.bostonherald.com/otherMLB/view.bg?articleid=117601

New York Post is reporting that the Dodgers signed Garciaparra for one year for $6 million plus incentives. The paper says he will play first base, though that statement is unsourced, so it could just be the writer's supposition.

http://redsox.bostonherald.com/otherMLB/view.bg?articleid=117601

Scanman, you beat me to it!

Unfortunately (for us, not Choi) it appears to signal the end of the Hee Seop era. I hope he gets the chance to play elsewhere and stick it up the collective arses of all the anti-Choi/Depo contingent who lap from the bowl of Simers and Plaschke.

I beat Jon by 47 seconds too. It took until 10:55pm, but I finally feel like I accomplished something today.

If the plan is to put Nomaaaaaah in left and Weaver accepts arby, then the Dodgers would be pretty well set, eh?

The lack of a source keeps some hope alive, but I have a feeling that Tuesday will not be my favorite day. If we really do nontender Choi, I sure hope he gets a platoon job somewhere

Choi has too much potential to be nontendered IMHO.

What happens if Sanders and Lofton decide not to come here and we non-tender Choi?

Is it really likely that the sports journalist hordes just decided to make up the 1B rumor? Why would they? I'm going back on my going back on Colletti. It's way too soon to be sure he isn't an idiot. There's no proof he is one, but it cannot be known, yet, that he isn't.

All that is left is hope...

339
Sounds like whining to me. I still like the handbook and I use it for reference all the time. That is where I quote all of my park effects and lefty/righty platoon splits.
I've learned from experience that his projections are not something to count on if your interested in Roto but they always make for interesting comparisons against HQ and Prospectus. The handbook pales against the Hardball times book and BP book but it is published just a few weeks after the end of the season. I think I got mine the 1st week of November.JMO

Doesn't make much sense to put Nomar at firstbase when we have a greater need in the OF. Of course there could be other moves still to come. vr, Xei

360-
Lofton or Sanders or maybe both

I just keep hearing in my head Colletti's quote when he picked up Ethier for Bradley. He claimed Ethier "had upside" unlike other veteran choices that were being dangled by other clubs.

As a 27 year old, Choi has upside. I could see him being non-tendered if he were in his 30s like Phillips. As it stands, I will remain hopeful that Nomar wil be in left until Colletti states otherwise.

And the Loney Era commences AD 2007.

Jason Phillips is 29.

It is key to remember here that regardless of where Garciaparra plays or what happens to Choi, there are worse things than getting this guy on a virtually no-risk, one year deal. Sean Burroughs is getting 1.5 million. You would think Tampa Bay could just drop a check in the red Salvation Army bucket.

364

Splitting hairs, perhaps? Either way Phillips is on the down side.

366 Was Phillips ever on the up side?

366
I'm not splitting hairs because is you say someone in his 30s, that implies that well, the guy is over 30.

Jason Phillips didn't make it to the majors until 2001. Granted he's a catcher, but he's not exactly washed up. If the Dodgers non-tender him (which seems very likely), he would get some interest from other teams.

I think it's just about axiomatic that Ricky Ledee does not have the physical ability to be a full-time outfielder.

So unless/until the Dodgers add a bonafide starter there (with Werth still injured), unless/until Choi is traded, Garciaparra would be a left fielder, no matter what the reporters write.

365 - I agree with that.

Six million to Nomar v. four million to Braden Looper. I mean, seriously. Don't let the Choi noise distract us from what could turn out to otherwise be a pretty sweet deal. Sure, Nomar could get hurt. But Looper couldn't be worth that contract if he sawed his own arm off and attached Cy Young's instead.

369. ya, these are the same reporters that act as if Choi had a bad season last year, among many other missrepresentations about Choi and his performance. Remember that Gurnick failed to mention Choi in his comments about the Dodger situation at third base, as if was fired with Depodesta. I have yet to see Colletti actually claim he's looking for a 1B in the last couple weeks.

But I think we need to forget about Choi for the moment (if he gets traded for nothing, ill be the first here to vent my rage), but we just bagged a faily famous and exciting ballplayer, not to mention a fairly big bat for the lineup:

Furcal
Mueller
Drew
Kent
Nomar
Choi
Cruz
Navarro

that looks pretty good to me, the problem is durability, but if another outfielder is signed i think there is enough depth to lessen the risk of total lineup failure.

368 Hyperbole on my part.

I actually knew Phillips was 29 now and he would be 30 sometime next season. I consider him 30. And there's nothing you, or anyone else can say, or any quantifiable fact like a birthdate that will change my mind about it. Ever.
;)

371. I think they have that operation in France

372 -- But it's that ninth spot...

Hey folks- nice of the Boston media to get the Nomar scoop at 2am EST while the LA papers sleep. Doesn't look the Times will have it tomorrow.

Given that the Yankees made an offer, I would expect the Nomar signing to be spun as a major recruiting coup for Colletti. With the guy living in Manhattan Beach it had to be a pretty easy sell.

Even if Nomar is playing 1b Opening Day I don't see why you wouldn't retain Choi for $600K or whatever. Saenz is the guy that suddenly seems like excess baggage.

372 - Not to be annoying, but I would put Choi ahead of Nomar in that lineup to alternate lefty and righty hitters.

Since these are going to be the numbers du jour tomorrow, I throw them out for informational purposes:

.318 .347 .531 .878

Nomar post-All Star Break. Smoke 'em if you got 'em.

Could we acquire Jason Marquis to become our designated pitcher? Plus our Jason supply is running low, just another reason to get him

377. so would I, but Colletti has said that he was looking for a hitter for the fifth spot in the lineup

More meaningless fun with Nomar Numbers:

.281 .301 .393 .694

His split against...lefties in 2005. Wacky.

And of course it would still be a sweeter deal if we were replacing Repko instead of the Choi/Saenz platoon. But you don't even have that option if you don't sign him first.

378 Those are especially appealing decimals when compared to his career line:

.320/.367/.544

By May 15 we could be wishing we had that 2007 option.

376 My points exactly, is there any upside to non-tendering Choi? You'd figure if Nomar was given 1B he'd at least retain the LH pinch-hitter off the bench. Then if (when?) Nomar gets hurt he could step in and be superman.

I'd have to say I'm quite excited by the Nomar signing. I'll be ecstatic if he ends up in LF, but no matter where he plays, he has the potential to be quite an asset in our line-up. If Ned decides to pay good money for a starter after all, it would be a good idea for him to backload the contract a bit since this year's payroll seems a bit bloated.

I don't know what to think of the story by Tony Jackson, who seems to believe that the Dodgers could very well sign Garciaparra, Sanders and Lofton - forcing Cruz to the bench alongside Choi.

My favorite line, though, is this (regarding Lofton):

"But he also has a home somewhere in the Southland ..."

Hey Jon (since you're still up)- my Best of DT arrived. What a body of work! Thanks for the memories. The end of the DePo era was a fitting bookend to the period you covered. Win or lose, looking forward to the 2006-2009 edition.

385. I could see a starting outfield of Sanders, Drew, and Nomar with Lofton, Cruz, and Ledee off the bench to start the season. Lofton could start behind fly pitchers, such as Perez or Houlton, as well as being only other player that could play center well when Drew needs a rest. Sanders, Ledee, Drew and Nomar are all injury prone. What are the chances that at least one of them is injured by the time that Werth is ready to go. Besides, too many outfielders isnt such a bad problem, especially when they are old or prone to injury.

387. insert "ball" after "fly", i dont mean to say that Perez and Houlton are really cool or anything like that

We have to tender Choi just so we can trade him to the Red Sox, though I'm not sure why they would want to downgrade when Kevin Millar was so solid for them last year.

How does Ned afford Nomar, Sanders and Lofton? It would take some combination of: trading well paid players, forgeting about getting any free agent help for the rotation, and/or McCourt opeining up his wallet much widered than rumored/expected. I very much hope it's the last, otherwise I see Ned spending limited funds in the wrong places -- especially if Nomar replaces Choi.

Thanks, Big. I need to do another promo!

Lofton made $3.1m and Sanders made $4m last year, that with the $6m he just paid Garciaparra that would add $13.1 million to the payroll, which, adding to Jon's calculation of $85.3m would come to $98.4m. Wasnt jackson the one that orginally claimed that the payroll was going to be cut to the $75m level not 2 months ago?

I don't understand why anybody thinks that Nomar is capable of playing left field. He hurt himself stepping out of the batter's box. He makes JD Drew look like Hercules. There's just no way that he'll last in the outfield, and if Colletti believes he will, he's crazy. The only place where he could 'safely' play is first base. Considering the dislike baseball people seem to have for Choi, it's pretty obvious that Nomar is being signed as his replacement. As such, it's a terrible signing, and I can only hope that Loney is the real deal and is ready soon.

392
... of course he sanders and lofton could sign for more or less than they made last year

393. why would he be more suseptible to injuries in LF than 1B? Is running worse for the achilles than streching to catch an errant throw?

393 - Well a 1st baseman has to make some crazy stretches to catch a ball, too. And that make be worse for his groin. Of course I may have no clue what I'm talking about.

393 Unfortunately, that's probably right. But I still think Ned wont non-tender Choi. He will just move him to the bench. Choi hits left and cost less than Saenz, so Saenz is likely the guy who would be moved. He would fit nicely on an Al roster.

395. Short answer: yes. For instance, Lance Berkman played first base last year after coming back from knee surgery because it is a significantly less taxing position, athletically. That's not to say, however, that Nomar couldn't hurt himself at first base as well.

I won't get my book until after Christmas. :(

397. I wish I could be as optimistic as you. But, do you really think they will move the "Professional Hitter" to make room for Depodesta's legacy?

didnt Valentin tear his achilles last year, it didnt keep him from playing LF

401. He tore a ligament in his knee. He played with a brace, after several months of recuperation, and he never looked comfortable in the field or at the plate. A complete tear of the achilles would necessitate surgery.

I will have faith in Mr. Ned's assertions that OF is a higher priority than 1B and Nomar will likely be in the outfield until he clearly says otherwise.

403. That's my problem, though. If you're right, and Nomar is being signed as an outfielder, then I've lost faith because I think it's crazy to add another injury prone player to our stock of health impaired outfielders. And, if he's being signed to play first base, then it's even worse.

And here we are again at the crossroads of hope and skepticism. I'll take both.

The only way I can justify this signing to myself is the same way I did last year after the Derek Lowe signing. It is motivated by McCourt's fetish for former Red Sox and the GM is simply appeasing the owner.

Of course, that's kind of silly...

398. Berkman played 50 games in the outfield in 2005

400 Who knows what they will do. If Nomar must play 1B, then moving Saenz makes more sense to me than Choi. Of course, I'd rather see Choi/Saenz at 1B and Nomar in the OF. Taking one step back, I'm not so sure that Nomar is any better than some of the other OF options available (such as Sanders and Lofton).

I think that signing Nomar was done as much for PR as for baseball reasons.

406 Re: McCourt... Did you catch the bit on the Blue Monster over at Dodger Blues?

The google ad on this post is now for "Asian Developing Nations," which is sort of ironic, given that the topic was stopping an Asian's development.

405. Yes, I don't think I'm actually adding much, here. I've seen a similar set of feelings expressed in many of the previous comments. But, I just don't think we should try and delude ourselves just because we would really like for Choi to start at first base next year. Realistically, I think the writing is on the wall, although I hope I'm wrong.

407. Yes, I know. But, when he came back, he initially played at first base, and even after he went back to the outfield he would play games at first occasionally to 'rest'.

I was just using that as an example. It's fairly obvious that first-basemen are, generally, some of the least athletic players on the field, because it is one of the least demanding positions.

411 -- Well, it's not over until Peter Gammons says it's over!

408. Absolutely. If we're talking about what I would like to see, then we are in agreement. I just don't have much hope that that is what will transpire.

413. Or the fat lady sings...

404 - If you have five outfielders - Drew, Cruz, Ledee, Werth, Garciaparra - who can each play 100 games, you're covered.

While there has been talk over the past few days that Nomar is coming I have yet to see it anywhere formally in print. Can soembody post a link?

And as I turn to repose, the odious Jerry Crasnick reports that Adam Eaton is "disturbed" by the way the Padres have conducted their off-season. As if Adam Eaton were the only one.

406 The big problem with recreating the Red Sox of yore is that Dodger Stadium ain't Fenway (and the players aren't quite the spring chickens they used to be either). I think a lot of people are going to be disappointed by the 2006 production of Garciaparra and Mueller. Lowe, on the other hand, is actually helped by the park.

416. That's still cutting it fairly close. But, it seems unlikely to me that Nomar (it's too hard to type his full surname at this time of night) will last 100 games, especially if he's being asked to play a new position. And, at this point, can we really pencil Werth in for 100 games. If not, then we're left with Drew, Cruz, and Ledee to fill in the slack, and they're a bunch that's not exactly known for durability. Maybe I'm just being pessimistic after last year's plague?

418. Bowden's trading Wilkerson for Soriano, and the Cards are throwing $13m at Looper, and Crasnick writes an article about how the Padres are having a "disturbing" offseason

418. The Padres being our biggest in-division competitors, I would express my feelings as "delight."

419. I agree. I was only trying to find some way to rationalize the deals in my own mind.

419. Let me get this straight, McCourt has some irrational drive to order his GM's to aquire former Red Sox because he used to be a Sox fan? This is kind of dribble is best left for TJ Simers, not DodgerThoughts.

420. who are you going to get, are Sanders or Lofton better bets to play 100 games, or are you advocating Jacque Jones or Johnny Damon?

416 And just as you need 5 OFs for 3 spots, you probably need 7 or 8 starting pitchers for the rotation. Right now I count 6 reasonable choices (the 5 listed on your payroll sidebar plus Billingsly). Rather than sign another OF, I really hope Ned can get some help for the rotation.

Depodesta wanted Nomar too (though probably as a 3B). Nomar is a good hitter and was a productive player when he came back from his injury. Ned, please don't sign Sanders to a 2-3 year contract!

424. Yes, I think that Lofton is a better bet to play 100 games in the outfield. And, he'd probably cost less than the $6-8 million they are reportedly offering Nomar.

426. Yes, he would have been fine as a one-year stopgap at 3B, had they not already signed Mueller.

By the way, according to Steve Phillips, baseball's official fake GM, our biggest need is catcher, a position best filled by signing Benjie Molina. Ugh!

427. if bonds can hobble around LF for 100 games, so can Nomar. I dont really buy this idea that Nomar will suddenly fall apart by running around in LF. There have been plenty of more brittle, more out-of-shape players who have lasted playing in the outfield.

I think that people often ascribe motives to others based on their own. Statgeeks such as myself might expect (or at least hope) that the McCourts act logically and rationally, but there is no guaranty of that. Similarly, statgeeks might argue that winning is the bottomline, but for the McCourts the bottomline is the financial bottomline.

I doubt Frank is trying to hire former Red Sox because he is a fan. But I wouldn't be surprised at all if he is in favor of signing big name players to help fill the stands so long as it doesn't have a significantly detrimental affect on the club's on field performance.

Granted he only has 63 such ABs in the last three years, but Choi's PH numbers are pretty awful: .127/.243/.449. More than two thirds of those came last year (13% of his total ABs; thanks again Tracy); helps to account for some of his drop off, unless it's just a statistical anomoly. Anyway. Might not be a great idea to count on him as a pinch hitter.

429. How did Steve Phillips ever get a job as a GM in the first place?

431. I agree. I just think that many of us have been projecting our own (statgeek?) hope that Choi will start. I just don't see that happening if this Nomar signing is actually taking place. That's all. I'm just coming up with silly rationalizations for it.

Just to be clear: that .449 is his OPS, not SLG. SLG is .206.

430. It's not just that the outfield is harder on the body, but it's also Nomar's first time playing it. That seems to me like it would make it even more difficult. In addition, Nomar's recent injuries involved his legs, and running. I just don't think that the outfield is the best place for him. And, finally, we already have a troupe of invalids running around out there, why do we need one more?

433. The old fashioned way. He inherited it.

Is it offical that Nomar is a Dodger-I still find no confirmation

438. No, not official yet. Just rumored.

Not official but the Boston Herald reported that every team that was interested in Nomar, sans Dodgers, has been notified that he's accepted the Dodgers offer for a 1 year contract.

http://redsox.bostonherald.com/otherMLB/view.bg?articleid=117601

In a way the news is encouraging because at least Nomar is decent if healthy, they're spending money, and it's only a one year contract. Plus they're still apparently chasing an outfielder. Hopefully signing/trading for a starting pitcher is still in the mix too because that's the biggest weakness. I would like to have seen Choi get a fair chance at 1st base though. Their handling of Choi has been negligent.

RealGMbaseball.com: "Dodgers Grab A Trio Of Free Agents"

"The Los Angeles Dodgers did indeed make an uproar this week by signing 3B Bill Mueller, C Sandy Alomar Jr. and Nomar Garciaparra. New Dodger GM Ned Colletti is being very aggressive in acquiring players since taking over last month. Here's how it plays out so far..."

http://tinyurl.com/bj4qy

In the New York Post this morning...
http://www.nypost.com/sports/yankees/59800.htm

According to the article it's a 1 year deal worth $6 million, with another $2 million in possible incentives.

Also reported on ESPN

The contract looks reasonable. I think we'll have to wait for the press conference, before we'll get a better read on the Choi situation.

Tony Jackson's latest is worrisome re: Choi, but let's wait and see:

Meanwhile, the issue of where Garciaparra will play if he joins the Dodgers also is becoming clearer. The Dodgers appear to have a strong chance of landing free agents Reggie Sanders, who would play left field, and Kenny Lofton, who would play center.

http://www.dailynews.com/sports/ci_3320336

WWSH

Peter Gammons is on the case.

442--what a goofy writeup at realgm. "Uproar" about signing Alomar?

444--I wonder what our payroll budget is. If that rumor about still signing Sanders and Lofton is true, we'll have a great lineup but possibly no money for pitching. Given the contracts of Washburn et al., I would agree with the strategy to get short deals for offense at reasonable prices.

Its official- Nomar is now a Dodger.
1 year contract for 6 million. He can make up to 8.25 million in incentives.
A very reasonable signing.

Now the big question mark. What postition does he play?

It's official - Nomaah, new Dodger firstbaseman.

I've been reading some posts over at Athletics Nation that are very interesting indeed.

Apparently Milton Bradley was under the assumption he was going to be the starting center fielder for the A's. Whoops, I wonder if he's ever heard of a guy named Kotsay.

Oh well, Milton is a little pissed to say the least. The Milton Meltdown is already starting in Oakland.

447-Sorry that incentives part reads bad. He can make an additional 2.25 million in incentives.

I guess Beane failed to mention this to Milton when he was traded. Ooops.

My nephew's kid is getting an IPOD for Christmas; What are some good web sites he can download music from, hopefully free or low cost?

JON!!!!!!!

ALERT! ALERT!

I posted it on my site:

http://sabrdodgers.blogspot.com

Nomar agrees to 1-year, 6-million dollar deal at FIRST BASE.

We had fun, Hee-Seop.

I also have a link to verify it.

452-

shhhhhh! do not tell anybody, but limewire is the safest thing out there... I have used it for a while and it is problem free!

That way you do not have to get your mulaa sucked out of you by itunes!

453-You're a little late with your post.

Looks like Nomar is official now and rumored to be going to first. Loften and Sanders looks like a strong possibility too. So the outfield is some day by day combination of Drew, Cruz, Loften, Sanders, Ledee, and Werth, goodby Repko and Edwards. I suppose Saenz will be kept for back-up and pinch-hitting, but I'd prefer to keep Choi. He's cheaper and there might be more market for Saenz in trade with an American league club, say Perez and Saenz for???

my bad i have a fever and i am really tired

452 454 Shame on you. Pay for your music. I wouldn't steal from you.

o wow i was REALLY late... sorry

Gears are grinding in Oakland already concerning MB. Read 449.

So, what would our lineup most likely look like at THIS point with Nomar either in the OF or at 1B vs RHP and LHP? vr, Xei

[449] i read athletics nation pretty regularly. i didn't see anything regarding milton bradley being "pissed" about not playing center. got a link?

Whether one likes Choi or not,the question one ought to ask is: will Nomar's play at first be an improvement worth 5.5 million?

Do we even need to worry about money anymore? McCourt seems to be a lot more willing to lend Ned his checkbook than he was DePo.

452

The one thing I love about iTunes is that it now has The Office with Steve Carrell.

Cannot get enought of it.

462-Well you're not reading regularly enough then. It was talked about a couple of days ago.

[461]

nomar in lf:

furcal ss
choi 1b
kent 2b
drew cf
nomar lf
cruz rf
mueller 3b
navarro c
pitcher

nomar at 1b:

furcal ss
mueller 3b
kent 2b
drew cf
nomar 1b
cruz rf
ledee/werth[when healthy] lf
navarro c
pitcher

463 -- Therein lies the Nomar Paradox. Theoretically, this team is much better with him, particularly at his contract, but his value is diluted by his expected usage pattern. A quandary.

well regardless it sounds like pure speculation to me.

Re: 466

My guess is that we'll sign Sanders, but not both Sanders and Lofton, so I'd sub in Sanders for the 7-hole.

What I really wonder is what Ned's projected role for Cruz is, especially since it's DePo's lieutenants who gave him that contract. Even if we sign Sanders and/or Lofton, Choi could still get his chance if Ned sees Cruz as more a 4OF type to go with Ledee.

WWSH

(468 was to mr. sweaty jockstrap)

468-So be it. Don't shoot the messenger big guy.

Ledee's career EqA is 261. He had a dreadful 87 as his Rate2 in LF last season. I didn't think he was terribly promising before, but now I really hope he gets nowhere near the starting linup.

WWSH

[471] hehe, nothing of the sort. it just sounded odd to me so i was hoping to see if it was actually documented someplace in the news or whether people were just talking out of their posteriors.

Current payroll is at 91-93 million. Assuming Ned wants a cuashion for in-season moves, and the budget is at 100 mil, we presumably don't have enough left in the bank for both Lofton and Sanders. I also wonder if Ned will surprise us by putting Nomar at LF and immediately making a move for Millwood, making the Sanders and Lofton rumors akin to the JT Snow contract floating around before.

WWSH

You guys continue to take an unsourced statement about Nomar playing first base as gospel. It may be true, but after an offseason of one false rumor after another - $75 million payroll, J.T. Snow - maybe a little more skepticism is in order. No one has gone on record as saying Garciaparra will play first base.

And once again - if you think you're announcing a scoop, do a quick search of the comments to see if it's reported already. People "announced" the Garciaparra signing six times in this thread. Please, it is no fun to read you when you make it obvious you aren't reading anyone else.

472. More of a question than anything else. Ledee seemed pretty gimpy last year due to a leg injury, how is that factored into defensive stats like Rate2? I mean if he had poor range last year because of a bad leg, then was healthy this year, wouldn't that Rate2 from last year be bogus?
vr, Xei

475 Yeah, looking at the article on the dodgers.com site it says

"With Rafael Furcal already inked to play shortstop and Bill Mueller to play third base, Garciaparra is expected to see time at first base and possibly left field. He'll likely bat fifth."

which is obviously mediaspeak for "we don't know where the heck he's going to play"

477 - The "is expected to" is often code for "this is what I suspect (or hope) but I can't get anyone to confirm." I mean, this isn't Watergate we're dealing with here. If no one's saying it out loud, maybe, just maybe, it isn't real.

475-Agreed Jon. Thank you. Just because Peter Gammons says Nomar is going to play first base doesn't make it so.

This is all speculation at this point. None of us know if Nomar will play 1st or Lft.

My personal opinion, take it for what its worth, i think the sanders and lofton rumors are just rumors, maybe not sanders, he could be a backup/pinch hitter.

But i think the dodgers will leave room for either guzman or laroche or both making the team out of spring training (guzman rf, drew cf, nomar lf, choi/seanz 1b) or (cruz rf, drew cf, nomar lf, choi/laroche 1b) or (guzman rf, drew cf, nomar lf, choi/laroche 1b).

Can you imagine a seanz, cruz, ledee, lofton bench, with alomar and a utility infielder (robles or aybar), then mid season martin replacing alomar.

The days of repko, phillips, edwards, izturis, valentin are gone.

oooops i meant maybe not lofton in the first paragraph in 480.

Re: 476

Yes, I suppose a healthy Ledee would have better range, but his career numbers are anything but impressive. Ledee's career Rate2 is 95 at LF, 100 at CF, and 98 at RF. Furthermore, being now 33, I think he would have naturally lost a step, so although he might not be as bad as he was last season if he's healthy, I still think he'll be a liability at LF. I personally think a healthy Nomar who was once a SS could at least match Ledee's fielding in LF, although there's of course no way of proving that.

WWSH

New post up top.

-480.

Sorry to nitpick, but, I'm pretty sure Guzman and Laroche will not make it out of spring training. Laroche with a HALF of season at AA, and Guzman with no position to play. I think, Ned thinks, they need to refine their skills before they are at the big leage level. That being said, I think Billingsly has the best chance to make the club out of spring training. I would love to see Jackson and CBills in the rotation.

But I agree, I originally thought the Lofton and Sanders were just rumors to talk up the players value. Im not so sure now, although I do see Sanders a better fit. Drew in Center, Sanders in right, Nomaah/Cruz in left.

Anybody worried about the rotation??!?

Blu2- Hope you're still checking this thread; there are sites that offer a subscription (Rhapsody, Napster) specifically for mp3 players. For ten bucks a month, you can download as many songs as you like from their million plus song archive, to your player. You can keep it on the player as long as you like, but they make it difficult to burn a cd, or otherwise steal it.

Then there are sites like eMusic that offer a subscription where for $15 a month you're entitled to 40 downloads, each of which is yours to keep. Right now, Office Depot is selling 50 CD spindles for seven bucks, that include a 100 free download trial subscription from eMusic. They've got Louis Armstrong's Hot Fives and Hot Sevens (in addition to 700,000 other songs)!

Cheap is in the eye of the beholder, I guess, but if he's trying to fill an ipod for less than 99 cents a song (and without stealing), those could be good ways to go.