Outside of the Rockies, I can accept an argument for any team in the NL West placing in any order 1-4. That is, this is a division that will be won on pure luck.

I think the D-Rays will move to Vegas and Selig will dump them in to the NL West. And that they'll win it. Because of Edwin Jackson.

2 - More likely he'll dump them in the AL West since it is only a 4 team division... AND they'll win it. Because of Edwin Jackson.

As far as I'm concerned this a win for the Dodgers as well. Unlike most on this site, I can't stand the Angels. I will root against them everytime.

A difference I see between the Dodgers and Giants is this

In order for the Dodgers to succeed they are banking on good years from players in their thirties with injury historys.

In order for the Giants to succeed they are banking on good years from player in their forties with inury histories.

Common sense would pick the Dodgers however what is common is does not always make sense.

Why is it that some divisions have less teams then others? Does this seem unbalanced to anyone else?

The last time I checked 16 and 14 are not evenly divisible by 3.

Last year, you picked the Dodgers to finish third, which was prescient (even slightly optimistic).

This year, their improvements are marginal--I don't see any upgrading of their starting rotation, one of the main problems of last year. But if the injury situation improves (a reasonable assumption), given the lack of movement by the Giants and Padres, I don't see why they can't win the division.

Like you said, it's a booby prize.

Barring an aided season by Barry, the Dodgers have to be the favorites this year.

The Rockies are the Rockies
The Diamondbacks number two starter is Brad Halsey
The Padres have no offensive threats outside of Giles and their pitching starts looking thin outside of Peavy.
The Giants get even older and had several fluke performances last year. Winn will go back to being average, Matheny will go back to being worthless offensively, and Moises Alou should decline, but he is a machine. Then again, their pitching should be much better.

Like last year, the Dodgers are the only team in the division that are serviceable in all areas. That should be enough.

6 Why did the Brewers switch leagues?

Why not 5 divisions with 6 teams each? Or 6 divisions with 5 teams each?

6- Oh I get it NL and AL ooops.

Bud Selig, white courtesy phone please, Bud Selig...

and i guess each league needs an even number or else most days there will be a team without a game, except for when they are doing interleague.

Is Matt Cain really that good?

oh, and i'm telling you right now, the giants will not win the division.

Jenkins is a tool. I will be amazed if Bonds has a big year this year.

7 - Last year, I think I originally had them second, then moved them to first just before Opening Day.

3 - Based on a testy discussion from a week or so ago, I'm establishing an informal ban on discussing whether most people on this site like or dislike the Angels. Plenty of people feel both ways about them; let's leave it at that.

I really think that Baez is going to be the difference maker this year in this division.

is anyone putting grady little into their decision? the giants and dodgers last year were level with each other, probably would be the same with tracy in this year. but if tracy cost us 6-10 games last year, couldn't that push us to the top?

if the pirates do better than us, for whatever godforsaken reason, how bad will the la press beat down little?

17 - Sorry, wasn't attempting to create a "discussion". Merely just my observation.

Is this a great world or what: A question to a Washington Post reporter from East Timor on Jeff Weaver, that includes Brett Tomko in the answer. Now it's up to each of you and your conscience whether this view makes you appreciate or unappreciate mlb and it's handling of the Nationals.

Dili, East Timor: Barry -

Do we have any shot at Jeff Weaver?

And, if not, is it the money or the various extra-curricular problems that other free agents have cited?

Thanks!

Barry Svrluga: No shot for the Nationals and Jeff Weaver. Too expensive. Washington never showed much interest. I think the extra-curricular problems you mention (stadium, ownership, etc.) had more of an impact on some other free agents such as Brett Tomko.

(link: Washingtonpost.com and look for the "baseball" chat transcript)

19 Press beating down=0, because it was that nerd DePo's idea to fire Tracy.

To the heart of the post:
1) Dodgers
2) D'Backs
3) Gnats
4) Rockies
5) Pads

I just had to be different by having the Rockies move up. Honestly, I think the D-Backs lack of experience, but abundance of talent will have them on our heels. The Gnats will hang in for a while until their DL gets bloated. I think the Pads are just too weak offensively and I would like to see the Rockies over-achieve some.

20 - It wasn't personal at you, Blue. Just heading it off.

Jon, you, sir, are a mouthful.

In the article form the San Fran Chronicle the author says that the Giants clearly have a superior starting rotation with Schmidt, Lowry,Morris, Cain and ???. I beg to differ considering that last year was just a bad year for Lowes HR tendencies,Odalis's health and Penny underperformed due to getting back from a rare injury I would say that the Dodgers starting rotation of Lowe,Penny,Perez,Seo and Tomko/Billingsly/Houlton, if healthy and in adequate form are clearly a much more dominant rotation than that of the giants.

Bullpens are not even in the same tax bracket.

Jenkins is the same columnist who ridiculed "esoteric statistics" in a column last year:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2005/09/14/SPG2JEN50G1.DTL

I've no use for him.

26 - Putting aside the author, let's take a look:

You're credit for bounceback years to Lowe, Penny and Perez, but not to Morris or Schmidt. It could go that way, but it could also go the other way.

Lowry, Cain and Brad Hennessey seem to be at least as talented as Perez, Seo and Tomko. Billingsley doesn't figure to be in the picture, and Houlton probably won't beat out Tomko.

No, the SF rotation might not be clearly superior, but I don't see how it's inferior.

I agree with you about the bullpens.

Look, I don't claim to be a big follower of stats other than the mainstream ones... I'm just now appreciating OBP and OPS. However, I have a few qualms with this guy's article:

This is the age of analysis overload in baseball, and some of it borders on the ridiculous. We started keeping track a few months ago -- keep in mind, these come from responsible, respected people around the game -- and here are some of the lowlights:

Well, if they come from "responsible, respected people around the game..." then they deserve respectful attention.

".... This is the new cool trend in baseball, quoting esoteric statistics as if they've been part of the game's fabric for 50 years."

Well, the data has always been there, it's just that some creative people (i.e. respected people around the game) have learned how to mine it for the sake of improving overall baseball skills and performance analysis! Gee, what a concept!

As if there is something wrong with this???

Do some so-called sports "journalist" feel an irresistable need to take the Plaschke course on "Effective Yet Innane Use of Hyperbole"?

From ESPN column on Grady Little. I found the quote from Ned to be very interesting. Sounds like he was a bit unhappy with the way Dusty managed the Giants.

(The résumé speaks for itself. In 16 years as a minor-league manager, Little learned to deal with homesick kids in Rookie League and disgruntled veterans in Triple-A ball. He worked in a demanding media market in Boston, spent 10 years in a winning environment in the Atlanta system, and embraced the concept of flexibility at every step along the way. The Dodgers expect to promote pitcher Chad Billingsley, catcher Russell Martin, third baseman Andy LaRoche and several other elite prospects in the next year or two, and they wanted a manager who's not married to the veterans.

"Sometimes a manager is reluctant to play a kid," Colletti said. "I needed Grady to be open minded that if a young player is ready, we'll give him an opportunity. Grady assured us that he has no reservations about that. He's completely on board with it." )

30 Well, Tracy had no problem playing kids, he just based his evaluation entirely on the first 10 at bats.

28 - In case it wasn't clear, I was putting aside Bruce Jenkins, not Curtis Lowe :)

31 - Also, sometimes Tracy's idea of "kids" is best illustrated by the casting of 30-year-olds to play high schoolers on Beverly Hills 90210.

OT, but I was watching the news this morning and they showed Paulie Loduca, the heart and soul of the NYSE, ringing the opening bell today. I predicted the market to open strong, then lose steam as the afternoon wore on...

Gabrielle Carteris had her 45th birthday on January 2.

29 - I should add another observation: for me it's easy to admit I do not understand the new stats and analyses applied to baseball data. I can enjoy sitting back and absorbing all the wonderful insights/points-counterpoints that all the intelligent people post here. I feel good if I learn something new every once-in-a-while or look at a situation from a view point I'm not qualified or motivated enough to find out about for myself.

On the otherhand, I imagine that these "Old School" reporters do not understand all the "new-fangled" stats and analyses themselves, and, out of fear of seeming uninformed, prefer to take defensive measures by slamming the alternate techniques instead of taking the time and attempting to understand them. They may not agree with them, but to dismiss them out-of-hand so prejudiciously shows an immaturity and professional shortcoming that borders on malfeasance.

33-lol, so sad so very true.

28-I agree with you there. I do not however agree with the author about the Giants starting rotation as the start all end all rotation of the west. I think that Lowe having a good year is dependent on his being able to not blister and whether or not carolyn hughes had any career altering STD's.
Schmidt will be caught for HGH which he took on accident thinking it was hair growth hormone and not human growth hormone.

The deciding factor in which rotation is better is going to be Perez and Morris, if Perez is 03 or even 04 I would say the Dodgers are better even if Morris stays the same.

Penny will do good, I have no reasons other then I was at the game he got his suspension for swinging at an ump and I feel that is reason alone for him to have a killer year this season.

The others will cancel eachother out in brilliance and mediocrity.

Projected RAR NL West Starting Rotations:
name team pRAR
Webb,Brandon ARI 15.9
Hernandez,Orlando ARI -3.1
Batista,Miguel ARI -3.4
Vargas,Claudio ARI -10.9
Ortiz,Russ ARI -26.1
ARI Total -27.6

Kim,Sun Woo COL -4.3
Kim,Byung-Hyun COL -4.4
Day,Zach COL -8.5
Cook,Aaron COL -11.5
Jennings,Jason COL -13.6
Francis,Jeff COL -20.9
COL Total -63.2

Perez,Odalis LA 7
Penny,Brad LA 5.3
Lowe,Derek LA 5
Tomko,Brett LA -1.9
Seo,Jae LA -3.1
LA Total 12.3

Peavy,Jake SD 27.6
Young,Chris SD 12
Estes,Shawn SD -5.7
Williams,Woody SD -6.6
Park,Chan Ho SD -14.5
SD Total 12.8

Cain,Matt SF 24.9
Schmidt,Jason SF 19.8
Lowry,Noah SF 4
Morris,Matt SF 3.6
Hennessey,Brad SF -7.2
SF Total 45.1

In real life and in projected stats the Giants big 3 kick our rotation butt. Matt Cain will be what Billingsly will be next year and that is the 2nd best pitcher in the division.

Jon: one question about the SI.com article:

"since the 1995 work stoppage"

Huh? Am I on crack or didn't the strike occur in 1994, not 1995?

38- How do you go about finding a projected RAR? I tried google and I got a zip program then I searched for runs above replacement and could not find a useful formula or ready made stats.

40
I use the projected stats from Baseball HQ because they are the best at projecting future performance.

36 A simple explanation for what you observed: Journalists usually suck at math. At least, that's an accepted truth in the industry. So instead of admitting they're scared by all those big bad numbers, the lazier columnists belittle them.

Sooner or later, the MSM will stop putting up with this and pounce on those, such as Jon, who are proven exceptions to the rule.

41 Not saying you're wrong, but Baseball Prospectus touts PECOTA as the best, and compares their results with other projection systems to back up the claim.

43- What does pecota say bout the NL wests Starting rotations?

39 - It carried into 1995, which had a 144-game season. I could have said 1994-95 work stoppage to be more clear.

44 Looks like they haven't released them yet. If you're the best, I guess, you can take your sweet time. ;)

I'll keep my eyes open for them, and post them here when I see them.

Bonds backing out of the WBC, Does this have anything to do with the WBC's stricter roid policies? I'm not saying it does but then again it probably does.

47 - knee.

48- The reason I asked in 47 is because they are having olympic style testing that even checks for HGH among others that are undetectable in the MLB. It is really conspiratorial but also another reason to spite Bonds.

That brings up another question, Do you think any players will be DQ'd from the WBC for steroids?

If you're DQ'd from the WBC, it doesn't count as a violation under the CBA for MLB (I'm all about the initials today). So if you miss the WBC, you can go back and play the regular season as if nothing happened.

It's like getting a parking ticket in Canada. You don't need to pay it unless you go back to Canada.

48 Either that, or they wanted him to bat 2nd. ;)

Back to the NL West lets assume everyone remains healthy on every team and modestly achieves, who wins? I say Dodgers.

43
I use them both but the actual analysis that BP did to make that claim was not very impressive. Pecota for 2006 has not been published yet. When it is I expect the combined VORP of the SF versus LA rotation to still be substantial.

I'm very interested in what your projections are for the NL west next year Molokai. Espcecialy after seeing how poorly the Dodgers pitching projects to be.

34. Very funny, Marty.

The Dow 30 closed up today! By 23.45 points!

38 How on Earth is Penny worth only 5 runs above replacement. How is Peavy worth only 27?

56. Yes, but the market had been up 52 points intraday. In fact, in the last two hours the market lost nearly 50% of its VORP.

Livedoor is down to a $1.65 a share.

I just finished reading "3 Nights in August". I found this passage interesting:

"Some players, like Shawn Green of the Dodgers, can figure out a pitcher's pitches with uncanny accuracy."

Really? Did he stop doing it after 2002? If this were true we wouldn't have seen him swing at so many breaking balls in the dirt.

57
Remember this is Baseball HQ's version of RAR.
Runs Above Replacement (RAR)

Purpose & Meaning
An estimate of the number of runs a player contributes above a "replacement level" player. "Replacement" is defined as the level of performance at which a player can easily be found at little or no cost to a team. What constitutes replacement level is a topic that is hotly debated. There are a variety of formulas and rules of thumb used to determine this level for each position (replacement level for a shortstop will be very different from replacement level for an outfielder).

BATTERS

1. Start with a batter's runs created per game (RC/G).
2. Subtract his position's replacement level RC/G.

Replacement levels used on this site:
POS AL NL
C 4.33 3.81
1B 4.99 5.95
2B 4.08 4.61
3B 4.91 5.06
SS 4.46 4.13
LF 4.94 5.44
CF 4.71 4.65
RF 4.70 5.29
DH 5.30

3. Multiply by number of games played, calculated as (plate appearances / 35).

PITCHERS

1. Start with the replacement level league ERA.
2. Subtract the pitcher's ERA. (To calculate projected RAR, use the pitcher's XERA.)
3. Multiply by number of games played, calculated as plate appearances (IP x 4.34) divided by 35.
4. Multiply the resulting RAR level by 1.08 to account for the variance between earned runs and total runs.

60. e.g. look at the splits for Green and Mike Hampton. Green owns certain pitchers. . .just not as many as he used to.

The Dodgers have caught up to the fact that I haven't renewed my season ticket order. I got an automated phone call from Ticketmaster (from a West Virginia phone number) telling me that I had a "balance due".

Now if the Dodgers are going to renew my tickets automatically, they are going to find one angry customer.

Are you planning to renew if they call and ask you nicely, or are you sitting it out this year?

I'm going to sit it out because the season ticket plan locked me into going to certain games and I found it's usually easier to go by oneself and buy a single the day of the game. My girlfriend isn't a big baseball fan, which is OK with me.

59. Didn't one of the principals commit hari carri (sp?) last week?

The new Boston GM is the old Boston GM.

67-

Out with the in with the 3 months older...
Now for some reason I wish that Boston would've lost like they were supposed to in 04.

66
Someone committed suicide, but I didn't hear how. I doubt the guy had a sword. My money is on a gun or a noose.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5275954

kearns to be traded.

blah, who thinks jackson and tiff could have gotten us kearns?

Typical Reds: "Who wants to trade us their top pitching prospect for this 25 year old fat guy we sent to AAA last year?"

68 - You haven't been wishing that since the end of 2003?

69 - I hear subway and/or bullet train is fairly popular too...

The new minor league coaching assignments have been announced for those interested

http://tinyurl.com/99yua

I think our season comes down to Seo, ODP, and the health of JD Drew. I think Penny and Lowe will be solid for us again, while Tomko will not be an effective pitcher, so that leaves Seo and ODP as the wild cards. I still doubt Perez ever returns to the style he was a few years ago, but he will be better then last year, because he was garbage last year. Seo was statistically very good last season. I do not think he matches those numbers next year (pitching more innings, fatigue, durability issues), but I still think he will be a good starter for us. Drew is our best offensive player and we need him for around 130 games to win this division. I think injuries will be the biggest factor this season. Whoever stays healthiest will probably win the division. Giants and the Dodgers are both old and have injury concerns, which could allow the Padres to win the division.

69. Was it Professor Plum in the parlor? Oops, wrong discussion.

70. Article also says Piazza to the Pods maybe. Boo

Piazza has been rumored today to be going to the Yankees, Phillies and now Padres. I ain't linking any Piazza story until he signs on the dotted line.

After Ron Artest, who can blame you.

The Artest-Stojakovic "trade" is funny if you get your news through an RSS feed.

Well, it's "hara kiri," (hara means stomach, and kiri is the noun form of "cut" - pretty literal) and like Bob, I doubt it. I also doubt a gun - there are more than there used to be (zero) in Japan, but they're still not that prevalent. Trains, jumps, hanging, gas, pills. That's the Japanese way, unless you're Yukio Mishima.

As much as it pains me to say it, if the Giants have a healthy (i.e. 130+ games) Barry Bonds this year and Schmidt reverts back to a pre-2005 Schmidt, I would have to give a slight edge to the Giants over the Dodgers. I just think he is that special of a player and the rest of the team performs better when he is in the lineup. Of course, ultimately, it will probably depend of which team has less injuries.

anyone playing partypoker?

Off Topic:

http://www.fhmus.com/articles-702.asp

Ran across this from a friend I guess that Kris benson was the Mets Ace. That is honestly news to me.

I'm going to assume that anything linked from fhmus.com should only be viewed with discretion.

According to the Reuters account of the unfortunate Hideaki Naguchi:

H.S. Securities head Hideaki Noguchi, 38, was found dead on Wednesday in a room at a hotel on the southern island of Okinawa from what police said appeared to be self-inflicted knife wounds.

I guess the big question is can Barry defy the laws of nature for one more season or does he become Cher. You know what I'm talking about. Cher, like Barry, has defied the laws of nature for years. She was a hot 40ish woman for way too long. Then one day she was just plain ol' scary. When it goes, it goes fast.

Does Barry have one more season? Who knows. We already know he is, at best, an average fielder. In addition, he will be limited on the base paths by both a lack of speed and an inability/unwillingness to slide. He can't play more than 120 games. The only question is will he be able to hit like he used to. I'm betting this is the year he wakes up a pasty-white 60 year old singer who slept with Sonny Bono and Greg Allman.

It was hara kiri after all.

Except it likely took a lot longer.

Steve, you had better be watching Boston Legal tonight!!

Steve will be watching "Love Monkey" which is the story of his life.

Isn't tonight the night Steve was going over to Jon's house for that Becker marathon?

Well, Steve already missed Betty White (his favorite actress, no?) robbing a convenience store. Who knows what she'll do next??

I loved Betty White in Lake Placid. She was swearing like a drunken sailor when they tried to kill her man-eating crocodile, maybe even dropping an "F" bomb.

...meanwhile Guillermo Mota's elbow is for the moment keeping the Phillies from trading Jason Michaels for Arthur Rhodes. Nice try G-man, but it may take a lot more than that to stop Stand Pat.

And good news for all the other Betty White fans here (LAT, I think that's just you and Steve), looks like she is back on for good!

Jon would have to come over to my house for a Becker Marathon. With one million dollars.

Betty White rocks.

I know this is going to end badly, with people thinking that I liked Becker.

http://tinyurl.com/doqtv

Pat Borders and Joe Beimel coming to spring training for the Dodgers!

As long as people don't think you like Baez, you'll be ok.

Danys Baez learned English by watching "Becker".