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About Jon
Thank You For Not ...

1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with

Raise a Hullaballoo for The Best of Dodger Thoughts
2006-01-31 14:39
by Jon Weisman
Note: The Dodger Thoughts blog has moved to the Los Angeles Times.

Cover1128crop.half.jpgI just peeked outside and saw that it's a beautiful day for The Best of Dodger Thoughts, for The Best of Dodger Thoughts today.

There's a reason the Dodger Thoughts website is free but the book costs money - organized by subject, the book does the website one better. Why settle for Don Drysdale when for just a few dollars more, you can have Sandy Koufax too?

It's only $25 for this unique look at Dodger life - both a historical resource and a collector's item. It's cheaper than a subscription than just about anything. If you've been reading the site for three years, it's about 16 cents per week. If you're new to the site, it's worth $25 to find that best pieces that you've missed.* Believe me, you wouldn't see me doing this poor imitation of a salesman if I didn't believe your money would be well spent.

Dodger insiders are already getting their hands on the book. Don't be a Dodger outsider. Note the clever play on words, and buy The Best of Dodger Thoughts right away!

*Say you earn $8 an hour. Buying The Best of Dodger Thoughts and streamlining your journey through past entries will easily save you the pre-tax equivalent of three hours, seven minutes and 30 seconds of your time. Isn't Dodger Thoughts worth three hours, seven minutes and 30 seconds of your life?

Comments (123)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2006-01-31 14:53:03
1.   bhsportsguy
Love the book although after reading it, one wonders how much therapy was needed to go through the last couple of years.
2006-01-31 15:16:03
2.   Bob Timmermann
Odd thought of the day:

"Old Friend" Jose Valentin isn't called Jose in Puerto Rican papers. He's called Tony. Probably because his brother, Javier as we call him in the U.S., also has the name Jose.

It's Jose Antonio Valentin and Jose Javier Valentin.

2006-01-31 15:28:23
3.   Bob Timmermann
And if you buy the book, you can read more about Jose Valentin!
2006-01-31 15:32:54
4.   Jon Weisman
3 - Why, there he is on page 67! And on page 75! And on page 82!
2006-01-31 15:35:04
5.   Icaros
4 - Eh, that's too much Valentin for me.

How much will the book cost in relation to a cup of coffee?

2006-01-31 15:38:54
6.   Jon Weisman
Hey Icaros -

A cup of coffee for Kurt Ainsworth will cost the Dodgers around $60,000, if he stays with the team for a month or so. If a cup of coffee is 8 ounces, The Best of Dodger Thoughts costs the equivalent of .00005 ounces of coffee. Yet it will last you for many cups of coffee. That's how much of a bargain it is.

2006-01-31 15:53:06
7.   Bob Timmermann
I can watch 3 old "Rockford Files" and one "What's My Line" in 3 hours, 7 minutes and 30 seconds if I skip through the commercials.
2006-01-31 15:59:14
8.   Jon Weisman
Unless the library is really shafting a man of your experience and education, your time would be even less.
2006-01-31 16:04:57
9.   Icaros
6 - Sold, provided I get a photo and hand-written letter from the DT poster that I sponsor.
2006-01-31 16:12:18
10.   FirstMohican
I recieved a copy of Best of DT a couple weeks ago. It wasn't THAT big of a deal that it took a month to arrive, because my interest in the Dodgers is inversely proportional to my interest in the Lakers (at least in the winter, we'll see about that in April).
2006-01-31 16:25:47
11.   Jon Weisman
9 - I'm sure you must have many pictures and personal documents of Bob already. Does that qualify?
2006-01-31 17:12:22
12.   Gilgamesh
Jon, I really appreciate the time you took to sift through all your posts and compile them into book form. I look forward each day to seeing what new insight you have posted, but unfortunatly I have only been a reader since mid-last season. I am now 3/4 of the way through the book and realize how high quality your site has been for many years.
Also, having it in book form opens your writing to a larger audience. My grandparents have been Dodger fans since the team moved to LA. They enjoy reading periodicals, but rarely use the internet, so blogs are foriegn to them. Being able to give them a copy of your book is a great thing.
2006-01-31 18:01:51
13.   Sam DC
6 Trying to impress Danica McKellar are we? (And less than 4 minutes between 5 and 6!)
2006-01-31 18:05:20
14.   Jon Weisman
13 - Always.

12 - You win the Sam DC award for nicest unsolicited promotion of the day. Everyone, take heed!

2006-01-31 18:48:35
15.   Bob Timmermann
There was a relatively new Danica McKellar film on one of my innummerable (I think there are about 40) cable movie channels called "Path of Destruction". She played an intrepid young reporter exposing a nanotechnology experiment gone awry!

It was written by Flounder!

2006-01-31 19:00:10
16.   Bob Timmermann
Correction.

Directed by Flounder.

2006-01-31 19:06:00
17.   scareduck
4 - (with apologies to Rogers and Hart)

My Tony Valentin
Third baseman Valentin
You made me cringe when you start
Your hitting's laughable
Fielding, so gaffe-able
I smiled when you did depart

Is your footwork really weak?
Your endurance past its peak?
Were the sabermetric geeks
All that smart?

2006-01-31 19:11:04
18.   natepurcell
is this for real? andrew bynum had 18 points in the 4th quarter today.
2006-01-31 19:11:07
19.   scareduck
17 line 3 s/b "make".
2006-01-31 19:49:00
20.   trainwreck
So I guess Ainsworth is the major deal and Martinez is the minor one, right Flanders?
2006-01-31 19:57:48
21.   Steve
One can hope
2006-01-31 20:14:25
22.   sanchez101
18. Bynum looked great, he scored 16, he was tearing Curry and whoever else was guarding him up. Not so great on the defensive end, and these are the Knicks, but the kid looked good tonite.

By the way, I like being able to call him "kid" as he is the first player younger than me to play for either the Dodgers or the Lakers

2006-01-31 20:18:34
23.   Daniel Zappala
He got his 16 in only 12 minutes, but also had 3 fouls. I sometimes think that is the most limiting factor in rookies getting playing time.

Jon, I'm waiting for my birthday to get your book, in March.

2006-01-31 20:41:52
24.   Marty
Good to see Icaros back in the fold...
2006-01-31 21:12:10
25.   Suffering Bruin
Very busy of late but I thought I would say this: I ordered my book many moons ago and haven't gotten it yet. Can I track the package on the Lulu site?
2006-01-31 21:32:12
26.   LAT
Got mine a few weeks ago and am really enjoying it.

Hi Icaros. Welcome back.

2006-01-31 21:42:54
27.   Steve
The surprising thing, for me, in reading the book, is how relevant (and prescient) Jon's writing in 2002 and 2003 was and now, therefore, still is. That is not to say that he was always right, but he was writing about the right things. This is not Plaschke writing with the shelf life of slightly tepid shrimp cocktail. Buy the book, knuckleheads.
2006-01-31 22:29:43
28.   Jon Weisman
Thanks, Steve.

Hi Bruin - e-mail me and let's see what we can find out. Anyone else having delivery problems, let me know.

2006-01-31 22:51:29
29.   Steve
Another list Jason Repko is on the bottom of

http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/012863.php

2006-01-31 22:55:11
30.   PennyJavy
Tommy Lasorda is on KCAL right now.
2006-01-31 23:05:41
31.   Andrew Shimmin
29- Obviously the computer geek who posted that forgot to account for the ability to run in to the wall without dropping the ball. An immeasurably important skill. Knucklehead.
2006-01-31 23:31:55
32.   Jose Habib
In Lasorda's KCAL interview, he claimed credit for turning Gagne from a starter into a reliever. Is that really true?
2006-02-01 02:32:10
33.   oldbear
Ned signed Brian Meadows, Ramon Martinez, and Kurt Ainsworth yesterday.

If Martinez is gonna play at Vegas, thats fine.

However, bringing in Meadows and Ainsworth will only take innings away from Kuo, Broxton, and Billingsley.

2006-02-01 07:22:19
34.   King of the Hobos
33 Where did you hear about Meadows? And Ainsworth isn't proven mediocricy like Meadows or Carter. He was actually good, then suffered arm problems for the last 3 years.
2006-02-01 08:09:00
35.   Colorado Blue
I received my copy of BofDT yesterday... it took about a week.
2006-02-01 08:21:50
36.   Sam DC
When I was skimming through the book yesterday (looking for stuff on Joe Ferguson) this nugget jumped out at me: "If Ross Newhan had been pro-Dan Evans, Dan Evans might still have his job today." (3/19/04) Hmmm . . . change the names around a bit, sounds familiar.

Also reading your July 4, 2005 comments on the Drew wrist debacle was fascinating. There's one that fits Steve's "not necessarily right but talking about the right things" observation pretty well. (Though you were darn right that some would react to the injury by blaming DePodesta for signing an injury-prone player.)

2006-02-01 08:25:55
37.   Sam DC
On another front, my "Reference of The Day" spammer tells me that today is the 24th anniversary of the debut of Late Night with David Letterman.
2006-02-01 10:02:08
38.   jasonungar05
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?id=2313980

Nomar Article.

2006-02-01 10:06:27
39.   Sam DC
Bowden watch: "Bowden attempted to trade Soriano to the Red Sox for right-hander Josh Beckett or to the Orioles for shortstop Miguel Tejada, but neither team was interested in a deal like that." Soriano for Tejada, and they weren't interested?

from nationals.com (http://tinyurl.com/7b89o).

2006-02-01 10:14:40
40.   Steve
More from DC:

Defensively, Desmond plays the game like Derek Jeter...

The article goes on to explain that he can't hit either. Dave Littlefield is on Line 2, Mr. Bowden.

2006-02-01 10:24:21
41.   Inside Baseball
Hmmm, Russell Branyan signs a minor league contract with the Devil Rays...anyone else worry Aubrey Huff may be the major deal Ned was speaking of? And I say worry not because I don't think Huff would be an upgrade (offensively) in left but based on Ned's last deal with Tampa.

Jon, thank you for this site. This is my first post after being a regular reader for almost two years now. I'm ordering a copy of your book today. Also, thank you to the regular contributors...you've made me a better "fan."

2006-02-01 11:02:51
42.   regfairfield
There was a player with an .860 OPS avialable for nothing? The Dodgers don't need anymore corner infielders, but I can't believe no one wanted Branyan.
2006-02-01 11:13:49
43.   Bob Timmermann
I just peeked outside and saw that it's a beautiful day for The Best of Dodger Thoughts, for The Best of Dodger Thoughts today.

But what if I'm out of dollars and cents?

2006-02-01 11:27:05
44.   Sushirabbit
So if Nomar really does play First, will Little use him much as a pinch hitter?
2006-02-01 11:49:15
45.   Sushirabbit
44 er, doh!, I meant will Little pinch hit with Choi much??

Also, BoDT, is great for those times when you want your youngens (kids) to see you actually reading as opposed to watching television or surfing on your laptop.

2006-02-01 12:09:47
46.   mcrawford
I had a math class with Danica McKellar at UCLA (we were both math majors). She was Smart with a capital S. Well, at least Smart as defined by getting all A's.
2006-02-01 12:13:01
47.   overkill94
Meadows and Ainsworth aren't anything to worry about concerning letting the prospects get PT. Ainsworth is still recovering from shoulder surgery IIRC and Meadows only fits in as a swingman, meaning whoever loses the battle between he and Houlton goes back to the minors.
2006-02-01 13:16:56
48.   King of the Hobos
Meadows is an older version of Houlton (both are curveball specialists) who hasn't started a game since 2003. The only advantage of Meadows over Houlton is Meadows has proven himself to be a mediocre pitcher (891 innings of 5.04 ERA pitching, with pathetic HR,BB,K/9IP rates), and Houlton hasn't
2006-02-01 13:23:22
49.   King of the Hobos
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/2006-01-31-unemployed-free-agents_x.htm

Players signing this late usually sign a discount one-year contract, but Molina's agent, Alan Nero, says, "Bengie is going to be fine," because three teams are working trades or restructuring their budget to sign him.

Then it speculates that the Dodgers could be one of those teams...

2006-02-01 13:45:19
50.   DodgerBakers
49- yeah on MLB traderumors, I heard that Molina may be the guy. I hope not!

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/unfounded_rumors/index.html

Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2006-02-01 13:45:44
51.   Bob Timmermann
mcrawford is now the coolest DT poster ever.
2006-02-01 14:01:30
52.   jasonungar05
"When you're a little kid you're a bit of everything; Scientist, Philosopher, Athlete, Artist. Sometimes it seems like growing up is giving these things up one at a time."

-the Wonder Years

2006-02-01 14:17:25
53.   oldbear
42. I'm not sure why Branyan has a stigma attached to him. 29yrs old, 8yr vet, lifetime .800+OPS at 3rd base.

I guess some teams just dont like 3TO hitters. We signed Truby to a minor league deal. Russell Branyon seems like a player with more upside at 3rd base.

2006-02-01 14:32:14
54.   Andrew Shimmin
39- Hilarious. The good news is: "The backup infielders, on the other hand, are set for Washington. Bothered by the fact that his bench didn't produce runs, Bowden added Marlon Anderson and Damian Jackson."
2006-02-01 14:33:19
55.   dsfan
I'd also take Branyan over Truby.

The knock on Branyan is that he's a strikeout machine and always has been. He has gaping holes. Against certain pitchers, he has no chance.

So you'd better have the right roster mix that precludes over-exposure. A not uncommon Catch-22 also hurts him: He's got a high-maintenance swing that requires playing time -- but he's an absolute lineup killer against certain type of pitchers. An erratic defendeer as well.

2006-02-01 15:01:30
56.   Icaros
Hello to Marty and LAT.

I'm looking forward to the upcoming season of "Who Else Looks Like Briana Banks?"

2006-02-01 15:19:28
57.   dsfan
36 --

By and large, criticism over Depo's signing of Drew wasn't that Depo signed him, but that he signed him for $55 million guaranteed. That's too many eggs in a leaky basket, and if you're going to allow for an opt-out, make it mutual.

2006-02-01 15:41:20
58.   LAT
56. I better start studying this issue now to be ready for opening day.
2006-02-01 15:43:17
59.   oldbear
Drew's deal is still better than ones signed by Adrian Beltre, Carlos Beltran, and Magglio Ordonez.

If you look at true value, Drew, Lowe, and Kent were 3 of the best signings of last off-season.

2006-02-01 15:43:18
60.   dsfan
33

I wouldn't be concerned that bringing in the likes of Meadows will take away innings from Kuo, Billingsley and Broxton.

There's usually ample innings for pitchers and if need be you can schedule B games against other Grapefruit clubs or even intrasquad game.

There's so much mediocrity impersonating major league pitching that if you're worth you're salt as a pitcher, opportunity will be the least of your problems. The more likely concern would be harmful increases in stress loads. Witness Jackson, Edwin, 2003.

I also like the idea of stockpiling 4A starting pitchers. Sometimes a Lima will pan out for you. Sometimes one or two of them give you a nice backup option in Triple-A. Surprisingly, Depo failed to develop good 4A depth in the Vegas rotation last year. The best veteran SP was Maholms, and obviously the LAD didn't trust him. For all the praise it gets, the farm system wasn't able to pick up the slack, either, when the LAD needed to plug their rotation. D. Thompson was decent at times, but his ticking bomb of an elbow caught up with him.

2006-02-01 15:55:08
61.   Bob Timmermann
Don't forget that Kuo may be pitching for the Taiwanese team in the WBC, so he may miss past of ST. That will also affect Choi, Martin, and a few others (Gagne?)

The only Dodger or Angel on the preliminary roster for the U.S. is ... Scot Shields.

2006-02-01 15:58:05
62.   dsfan
I'd rather have a full year of Beltre/Beltran than so little of Drew.

Drew returned poor value simply because he was on the field far too seldom. Given his salary and his No. 3 spot in the lineup, he has to be a lot more reliable than he was in 2005.

Beltran and Beltre weren't great, but they were in the lineup and played well at premium positions (although Beltran's defense, by some measures, wasn't that good). Even at non-peak years offensively, they were better values than Drew simply because they played.

I see Drew coming back with a good year, the best of the five years (two too many) guaranteed. All of the time off likely helped his chronic knee problem. The best thing for patellar tendinitis is rest, and he got plenty of it. The November opt-out might also be of some incentive. If Drew is finding that LA isn't his favorite place, a strong year could create enough value that another club entices him next winter.

2006-02-01 16:02:32
63.   Steve
Jim Tracy can put this in his crack pipe and smoke it:

http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/012910.php

2006-02-01 16:23:38
64.   Jon Weisman
62 - For what it's worth - and I'm a Beltre fan - but Drew had more value in 72 games than Beltre had in 156, if I'm reading Baseball Prospectus' WARP stat correctly.
2006-02-01 16:43:24
65.   Bob Timmermann
If you owned the book, you would know that Jon is a big Beltre booster.
2006-02-01 16:45:28
66.   Vishal
[63] what's tracy gonna believe, some stupid number, or his own eyes??
2006-02-01 16:49:44
67.   Marty
Man, here is a great snippet from the "where have you gone Andy Van Slyke" blog on a Jim Tracy interview at something called "Piratefest":

Every single question that was directed to him was met with a long, rambling answer that involved him talking about how great he was. By the time he finished, not one answer resembled the original question in any way, shape, or form. The man is a complete moron and I would be terrified to even cross the street with him, let alone have him manage my baseball team

Priceless.

http://whereisvanslyke.blogspot.com/

2006-02-01 17:12:47
68.   Steve
Pittsburgh fans are clearly a discriminating and tasteful lot.
2006-02-01 17:13:08
69.   dsfan
Jon,

Strikes me as specious use of WARP to say Drew had more value at 72 games than Beltre at 150 games. Look at the team context:

What is the ripple effect of replacing Drew for 90 games? Hard to measure statistically, but to my eyes it weakened the LAD lineup and bench considerably for more than half a season.

I also believe WARP undersells Beltre's defensive value at a premium position. When valuing defense, I'm more inclined to go with major league personnel than stats (although I also study the stats). A strong body of opinion is that Beltre is a good 3B. His defensive value at a premium position is pretty strong over 150 games.

Offensively, he was mediocre in 2005. But if you were to DL him for 90 games, what does that do to your 3B defense, the middle of your order and your bench? I don't think WARP addresses such ripple effects to the team.

2006-02-01 17:21:18
70.   Steve
Because, clearly, the Seattle Mariners would have been dead in the water without Adrian Beltre.
2006-02-01 17:25:54
71.   Xeifrank
69. Better yet, since you are the one trying to make the point, let's see your statistical analysis of why Beltre was more valuable in 2005 than Drew. We can all have opinions, but without backing them up, what good are they. Heck, Jim Tracy thought Jason Phillips made a heck of a firstbaseman... that was his opinion.
vr, Xei
2006-02-01 17:26:08
72.   LAT
62. I see Drew coming back with a good year, the best of the five years (two too many) guaranteed. All of the time off likely helped his chronic knee problem.

Fan, I hope you are right but there is the issue of the "repaired" shoulder that keeps him from throwing the little round white thing very far.

2006-02-01 17:28:03
73.   dsfan
62 --

Oh yes, the shoulder. And the wrist. Certainly of concern. But maybe they apply enough glue to his balsa-wood frame to get him ready by May.

2006-02-01 17:32:12
74.   King of the Hobos
Would the ripple effects of losing Beltre really be that much worse than Beltre playing every game? The Mariners were terrible with or without him, and he didn't do anything to make them better. I'm pretty sure Drew/Cruz was more valuable than Beltre
2006-02-01 17:32:21
75.   dsfan
The main reason Beltre gave more value than Drew was that he actually on the baseball field, playing good defense at a premium position and supplying decent offense.

How's that for a dazzling analysis?

2006-02-01 17:38:00
76.   dsfan
Not sure Cruz has anything to do with evaluating value of Beltre/Drew in 2005.
For starters, Cruz was added long after Drew's hiatus had contributed to the team's demise.

The Mariners were so awful, Beltre could've been as good as he was in 2005 and it wouldn't have put any champagne bottles near their clubhouse.

2006-02-01 17:43:05
77.   Eric L
75 Not trying to stir up a hornet's nest, but that sounds more like a scouting report than concrete analysis.

As for 76, if the 2004 Beltre showed up in Seattle, he certainly would have been more valuable than the 2005 Drew (of course, the same thing can be said for Drew).

2006-02-01 17:52:19
78.   dsfan
75,

I meant to say 2004, not 2005, on Beltre.

As for the great Drew/Beltre debate, I think WARP doesn't address the teamwide ripple effect of having to replace Drew for 90 games.

2006-02-01 17:58:31
79.   overkill94
76 When analyzing how valuable someone was to their team, you have to consider what kind of production would fill in for their time missed. Half a season of very good Drew combined with a mediocre replacement is better than a full year of mediocre Beltre. The only argument you can use is defense, but I don't think Beltre's .716 OPS can make up for it.
2006-02-01 18:03:00
80.   Eric L
78 Isn't that part of the point of WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player) though? Replacing Drew's 2005 production was much harder to do than it would have been to replace to replace Beltre's 2005 production.

Again, it needs to be repeated that according to WARP (and VORP, though VORP is positional right?), Drew was more valuable to the Dodgers in the limited ABs than a whole season of Beltre.

2006-02-01 18:12:51
81.   Sam DC
There's an Insider-only chat from today with Rob Neyer up on espn.com. Free question outside the firewall:

Danny (Poway, CA: Do you think we'll see Chad Billingsley in the LA rotation by the all-star break?

rob neyer: I would say it's 50/50 (give or take 10 either way). Billingsley's a fantastic prospect, but a) he hasn't pitched an inning in triple-A yet, and b) it wasn't that long ago that Edwin Jackson was a fantastic prospect, and look how that turned out.

2006-02-01 18:41:10
82.   jasonungar05
last 5 seasons:

Beltre:
1 time with OPS+ over 100
(93, 98, 89, 163, 90)

Drew: 5 times.
(122 ,162, 110, 133, 158, 148)

You can plan for games Drew will miss. In fact I think we still need to do that. The OFers we have are way to injury prone still.

Aw the heck with it, the whole team is.

2006-02-01 18:52:48
83.   Steve
Missing the point. Once you are comparing Beltre and Drew, that's all you really need to know about both of them.
2006-02-01 18:54:22
84.   grandcosmo
75. As has been pointed out WARP takes into account the amount of playing time Drew and Beltre had.

Also I wouldn't consider an OPS+ of 90 to be decent offense. His OPS was 8th among the 9 third basemen in the AL that qualified for the batting title.

2006-02-01 18:59:34
85.   jasonungar05
83-lol
2006-02-01 19:02:34
86.   Jon Weisman
The comment I made in 64, I hope it was clear, wasn't meant to be definitive - it was just a counterargument for discussion.

I will say that I'm not sure the Dodgers suffered that much defensively in right field during 2005 when Drew was hurt. Offensively ... eight men played RF for L.A. in 2005. (Remember, Drew played some CF - so this is actually going to hurt the Dodgers in this comparison.) The team OPS in RF was .808.

http://tinyurl.com/8vd7x

The team OPS for Seattle 3B was .705.

Did Beltre's defense, at a more important position, make up this difference? Maybe. But it's definitely a lot to make up - and again, I'm not even including Drew's games in CF.

2006-02-01 19:52:37
87.   Steve
84 -- Was the ninth Teahen?

Beltre supplied nowhere near "decent offense." Beltre wasn't even in the same zip code as "decent offense." Antonio Perez supplied decent offense. If Beltre was a blimp, he would have been the Hindenberg. If he was an ocean liner, he would have been the Titanic. If he had run for President, he would have been Michael Dukakis (or Bob Dole). The argument about JD Drew does not require a rehabilitation of one of the worst 13 million dollar years in the history of mankind. Babe Ruth once said that he had a better year than the President. Beltre barely beat out Jack Abramoff.

2006-02-01 20:32:55
88.   dsfan
Jon,

I didn't take your counterargument as definitive. I took it as thought provoking.

Nor did I wish to set my observation on Beltre/Drew's 2005 work in concrete.

Wish there was a better way to measure the effect of Drew missing 90 games. Seems reasonable that he greatly weakened both the lineup and the bench. Again, I do believe that 156 games of good defense at a premium spot (3B) gets underplayed by WARP.

I probably value durability more than the norm and find unreliability, as expressed by a player's inability to stay in the lineup, as more harmful than many would say.

2006-02-01 20:34:15
89.   dsfan
82 --

The Drew/Beltre comparison wasn't on their careers, just 2005.

2006-02-01 20:37:37
90.   dsfan
84

No question, hard to defend Beltre's offensive work in 2005. His assets were defensive work at 3B, perhaps SP relative to all hitters (not 3B). And durability.

2006-02-01 20:40:54
91.   Steve
If you are lame, durability is not an asset. This is the Tomko Tautology.
2006-02-01 20:47:21
92.   dsfan
Lame implies bad across the board. Beltre's defense is/was good. I'd guess his slugging is pretty good for all hitters, mediocre for 3B who qualified. I see your point. So much outmaking with the bat...
2006-02-01 20:50:14
93.   dsfan
Jon,

Hard to quantify how much LAD suffered defensively when Drew wasn't in RF, Pinto's numbers, as I recall, showed Drew a good RF. Major leaguer personnel regard him as a VG right fielder and a good CF -- I would think his RF range is excellent (when he's in the lineup and his knee isn't aching, etc.)

2006-02-01 20:53:30
94.   regfairfield
You do realize WARP accounts for defense, right?
2006-02-01 20:56:09
95.   dsfan
Yes. Or attempts to.
2006-02-01 20:58:55
96.   D4P
87
Nice number tab, but your streak was short-lived.
2006-02-01 21:11:38
97.   Steve
And now, we proudly present a short list of baseball players who outslugged Adrian Beltre:

Ryan Klesko
Brandon Inge
Pedro Feliz
Sean Casey
Brady Clark
Ray Durham
Bill Mueller
Rafael Furcal
Eric Hinske
Jimmy Rollins
Carl Everett
Jeromy Burnitz
Gary Matthews Jr.
Jacque Jones
Casey Blake
David DeJesus
Craig Monroe
Ronnie Belliard
The Estimable Joe Randa, Esq.
Emil Brown
Kevin Mench

He was giving Neifi a run for his money, but a hot August put an end to that pursuit. In the end, he settled into a comfortable banjo hitting middle infielder median, right between Ray Durham and David Eckstein.

2006-02-01 21:30:59
98.   das411
Hah, hey Steve, your favorite shortstop is on that list!

Quick, everybody drop a Phillies hat on the ground, point to it, and say "Look, it's Jimmy Rollins!!"

And now a real comment so I don't get yelled at by Jon: Which is there more likely an easy replacement for on the market, a 3B capable of putting up (going off of "normal" seasons and ignoring the ridiculous 2004-05s as outliers) Beltre 2003 numbers or a RF who will give you Drew 2003 ones?

2006-02-01 21:34:34
99.   Steve
Izturis is nowhere near that list! Well, actually, he's not that far from that list.
2006-02-01 21:35:51
100.   regfairfield
I could have replaced Beltre's 2.2 WARP in 2003 by signing Russel Branyan to a minor league deal.
Show/Hide Comments 101-150
2006-02-01 21:36:43
101.   oldbear
82. Good points. Its for that reason that I dont think the JD Drew contract was a bad deal, especially in regards to the market.

Even if you just get Drew's average games played over that time, which I think was around 115... Its still a good deal.

If Drew played 120 games at 11 mils a year. that more cost effective than paying the rates that Beltran, Beltre, Russ Ortiz, or Magglio Ordonez got.

Sometimes you take chances on proven great players, that have had injury histories. Wasnt the knock on Jim Edmonds was that he was injury prone? Cards made out fine acquiring him.

I'd rather acquire a guy that has talent, and just hope he stays healthy. Rather than a player with less talent.

2006-02-01 21:38:41
102.   oldbear
97. Shocking that I consider Bill Mueller to have no power. If Mueller has no power and still out SLG'ed Beltre, what does that make Adrian?
2006-02-01 21:38:47
103.   regfairfield
To replace J.D. Drew in 2003, on the other hand, you'd have to sign Juan Encarnacion to a 15 million dollar deal and pray he somehow is able to repeat 2005.
2006-02-01 21:40:01
104.   regfairfield
102 If it makes you feel any better, Beltre had a higher isolated power.
2006-02-01 21:45:20
105.   oldbear
104. I'm really surprised Pecota projects Beltre to have a 'bounceback' year. I dont see him SLG'ing near .500 again.

Beltre's 2004, Aubrey Huff's 2003, Jose Cruz (in 2001), Richard Hildalgo's 2000....

Somehow these players havent regained their respective losses in power.

2006-02-01 22:00:32
106.   Steve
I would feel better if we stopped talking about garbage like Adrian Beltre and started worrying about our crappy starting rotation.
2006-02-01 22:18:09
107.   Xeifrank
Using my simulation software...
2006 Preseason NL West Standings
Standings
Team W L GB Streak
NC Dodgers 12 6 _ Lost 2
PD Dodgers 11 7 1 Won 1
DBacks 10 8 2 Won 4
Rockies 9 9 3 Won 2
Giants 7 11 5 Lost 4
Padres 5 13 7 Lost 1

Depo's Dodgers have crept to within one game of Colleti's Dodgers in the standings. The Rockies just took two out of three from NC. The DBacks are redhot and just swept the Giants three straight. Depo's Dodgers took 2 of 3 from the Pads, game MVPs of that series were (Kent, Giles and Bradley). vr, Xei

2006-02-01 22:51:32
108.   Andrew Shimmin
106- All we need is for the starting five to perform at their 98th percentile PECOTA projection, and we're golden. Which should be totally do-able, what with the veteran presence in the clubhouse.
2006-02-01 22:56:52
109.   regfairfield
If it works for the White Sox...
2006-02-02 04:06:04
110.   Sam DC
Hee-Seop Choi has a hole in his swing -- how can you nitwits argue that he's the second coming of Albert Pujols?

Boy that Jim Tracy sure puts his players in a position to succeed.

Alex Cora would've gotten that.

Happy Groundhog Day.

2006-02-02 06:58:13
111.   Vishal
[105] huff hit 29 homers in 2004, and hidalgo hit 25 that year, not too far off from the 34 and 28 that they hit respectively in 2003. but oddly enough, they each lost about 20 doubles from 2003, which is why their slugging percentages took a dive.
2006-02-02 07:00:31
112.   Vishal
of course that still doesn't explain hidalgo's monster 2000 season...
2006-02-02 07:06:53
113.   Sushirabbit
97 & 106 --
Shouldn't Weaver be on the list?! Maybe we should have signed him...

As my final BoDT plug, it's the perfect height for my 4 yo to sent on when at the table now (booster too big, chair not high enough). Hahahaha.

51 - I'm with you on that, Bob, math majors are cool. :-)

2006-02-02 08:27:24
114.   Izzy
-Warning, simplistic non-statistical post to follow...

Did anyone get any Dodger seats from the stadium??? Mine are so cool. I got some blue ones that are cleaning up nicely and a set of the orange loge ones too. Once I've got my MLB package, we can sit there in them and eat popcorn 200 miles from Dodger Stadium. And Milton Bradley can't even throw beer on me:)

iz

2006-02-02 09:44:20
115.   SMY
Whoa. Let's hope none of this comes to pass.

http://tinyurl.com/7cm2s

2006-02-02 09:48:55
116.   Sushirabbit
114 -
That's great!

Is anybody going to go the Dodgers game in Saint Louis Jul 13-16? I'm thinking about going to the Friday or Saturday game.

2006-02-02 09:57:25
117.   Curtis Lowe
115-When I read the name Kirk Reuter could be had, it was as if a million souls all cried out in agony. I am however looking for to Ainsworth maybe rebounding from his injuries and possibly doing some good for the Dodgers.
2006-02-02 09:57:39
118.   Sushirabbit
I like the idea of Choi getting used alot in the pinch hit role (early and often), while I think he ought to get a fair shot at 1B if Nomar hits like we all know can, then maybe Choi at least gets in some ABs.

Also, I'm all for another lefty, I'd just prefer it not be Reuter.

2006-02-02 09:58:04
119.   Bob Timmermann
115

We've been over that in other threads. I wouldn't make too much of it. Look for the Jon's post that has "trip" and "Florida" in the title.

At first with the ominous tone, I was expecting news of an Iranian nuclear test.

But it's just Kurt Ainsworth.

OH MY GOD, KURT AINSWORTH HAS THE BOMB!

2006-02-02 09:58:40
120.   Andrew Shimmin
115- I'm as happy to spit on Colletti as any ten men, but I'm not prepared to take Ray LaRoux's word that Martinez is higher on the depth chart than Robles or Aybar. And, really, no bloody chance does Colletti go after Ismael Valdez or Kirk Reuter. Right? That wouldn't happen. Maybe he'd trade Young, Meadows, and Elbert for either or both of them. But no way does he just sign them.
2006-02-02 10:02:57
121.   Jon Weisman
New post up top.
2006-02-02 10:03:12
122.   Andrew Shimmin
118- It's a small sample size, so maybe it really doesn't matter, but Choi has been a phenomenally bad PH. Splits over the last 3yrs:

PH 63 AB .127/.243/.449
1B 802AB .253/.361/.824

2006-02-02 10:04:41
123.   SMY
Sorry, I didn't see it before. I don't really believe any of it either (it does come from scout.com, after all), but still.

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