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Also ...
A Season in Savannah (Stanford Magazine)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2005) (Hardball Times)
Rick Monday (Baseball Analysts)
Baseball's Odd Couple (Baseball Prospectus)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2006) (Hardball Times)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2007) (Hardball Times)
Dodger home record: 39-30 (.565)
When Jon attended: 5-3 (.625)
When Jon didn't: 34-27 (.557)
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Jon attended: 293-233 (.557)*
Jon didn't: 457-374 (.550)
* includes road games attended
Current Roster with Estimated 2008 Salaries
(updated March 28)
Most figures are estimates (some are wild estimates) but will be updated as information comes in. Corrections welcome.
More contract details here.
Starting Pitchers (5)
$12,300,000 Hiroki Kuroda
$10,000,000 Derek Lowe
$9,500,000 Brad Penny
$7,000,000 Esteban Loaiza
*$500,000 Chad Billingsley
Total: $39,300,000
Bullpen (6)
$2,000,000 Takashi Saito
$1,925,000 Joe Beimel
$1,125,000 Scott Proctor
*$500,000 Jonathan Broxton
$500,000 Chan Ho Park
*$400,000 Hong-Chih Kuo
Total: $6,450,000
Starting Lineup (8)
$14,100,000 Andruw Jones
$13,000,000 Rafael Furcal
$9,000,000 Jeff Kent
$8,500,000 Nomar Garciaparra
$8,000,000 Juan Pierre
$500,000 Russell Martin
*$400,000 James Loney
*$400,000 Matt Kemp
Total: $53,900,000
Bench (6)
$875,000 Gary Bennett
$600,000 Mark Sweeney
$424,500 Andre Ethier
$391,000 Delwyn Young
$390,000 Chin-Lung Hu
$390,000 Blake DeWitt
Total: $3,071,000
Disabled List
$12,000,000 Jason Schmidt
*$400,000 Tony Abreu
*$390,000 Andy LaRoche
Total: $12,790,000
Also Paying ...
$1,000,000 Brett Tomko
$750,000 Odalis Perez
$540,000 Yhency Brazoban
$500,000 Randy Wolf
$487,500 Jason Repko
$135,225 Rudy Seanez
$100,000 Mike Lieberthal
$50,000 Ramon Martinez
Total: $3,562,725
Working total: *$113,268,725
*Rough salary estimate
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The 2006 Dodgers aren't even out of the dressing room yet, let alone strutting down any runways, but with pitchers and catchers soon to report, here's a quick look at how the outfit is shaping up for Opening Day.
Locks (18)
Only a disabling injury can stop these guys from making the Opening Day roster:
Starting Pitchers: Derek Lowe, Brad Penny, Odalis Perez, Brett Tomko, Jae Seo
Bullpen: Eric Gagne, Danys Baez
Starting Lineup: Dioner Navarro, Nomar Garciaparra, Jeff Kent, Rafael Furcal, Bill Mueller, J.D. Drew, Kenny Lofton, Jose Cruz, Jr.
Bench: Ricky Ledee, Olmedo Saenz, Sandy Alomar Jr.
Disabled List (2)
Infield: Cesar Izturis
Outfield: Jayson Werth
Most Likely to Succeed (7)
Yhency Brazoban, P: Thanks to his inconsistent 2005 and the potential for general manager Ned Colletti to choose a veteran at every turn, Brazoban can't be considered a shoo-in, but only a complete Spring Training meltdown could keep him off the 25-man roster Opening Day.
Lance Carter, P: There's nothing particularly distinguished about Carter, but the quotes from Colletti upon his acquisition last month indicate the GM's strong belief in him. It's hard to believe Jonathan Broxton isn't better, but ...
D.J. Houlton, P: Fills the long reliever/swingman role. The Dodgers have 16 games in the season's first 17 days, so long relief could be vital.
Tim Hamulack, P: The 29-year-old's outstanding 2005 minor league numbers (1.13 ERA, 61 strikeouts in 64 innings) give him the slightest edge for the left-handed reliever slot. But this figures to be one of the most competitive battles in March.
Hee Seop Choi, 1B: Still the rightful starter at first base in some people's minds, Choi's place on the roster has been considered safe because of his left-handed bat and Garciaparra's recent injury history. On the other hand, the Dodgers have plenty of people who can play first base, and dropping Choi off the roster would allow them to keep an extra multi-position backup. The chances of Choi being in another uniform in April might still be higher than you think. Watch out if a starting first baseman from another team gets hurt.
Oscar Robles, IF: Last year's sometimes starting third baseman has a more suitable role waiting for him as backup infielder.
Jason Repko, OF: The brittle outfield opens up a good deal of playing time for the No. 5 outfielder. Repko is in line for the spot - he's got the speed the management likes, plus he's a right-handed bat in an outfield with lefties Drew, Lofton and Ledee, but he'll have competition. In any event, his role could be short-lived if Werth heals before the first starting outfielder goes on the DL.
Next in Line (9)
Jonathan Broxton, P: Odds are that with so many veteran relievers on the team now, Broxton will have to go to AAA, where he can work on his control. But he shouldn't be down long - if at all.
Kelly Wunsch, P: Allowed a .589 OPS vs. left-handed batters, .906 vs. righties. He'll definitely challenge Hamulack.
Hong-Chih Kuo, P: His strikeout potential is phenomenal. Ideally, he'll be healthy and ready to go after major league hitters. The last thing the Dodgers should probably do is waste his healthy innings in Las Vegas. But he'll have to prove to manager Grady Little that he's ready to get out major leaguers on a daily basis.
Franquelis Osoria, P: If the Dodgers have real confidence in their starting five, they could send Houlton down and open a spot for Broxton, Wunsch, Kuo or the groundball-inducing Osoria.
Brian Meadows, P: One of those guys who sometimes gives you good innings, he's in the mix.
Willy Aybar, 3B: His hot September primary lead infield backup.
Andre Ethier, OF: A left-handed hitter, he could challenge Repko for the temporary last outfield slot, but more likely would be first in line if another outfielder stumbles after April 1.
Cody Ross, OF: Ross had a terrible cup of coffee with the Dodgers in 2005, wasn't really a knockout in Las Vegas, and is perhaps tainted by association with Paul DePodesta (as one of his earliest scavenger prizes). But Ross has some power, so he could represent a more interesting threat off the bench than Repko.
Delwyn Young, IF-OF: Could sneak on, especially if he proves versatile. This was the Dodger Thoughts report on him in September:
Got the Vegas bounce in on-base percentage (.361) but not slugging percentage (.475) after his promotion from Jacksonville (.346/.499). His 16 homers with the Suns matched the more heralded Joel Guzman in 71 fewer at-bats. While the younger Guzman has greater long-term potential, Young is better positioned to help the Dodgers in April 2006, although currently 25-year-old Antonio Perez blocks his path. Young also has the plate discipline of Dodger minor leaguers of old - 35 walks against 531 at-bats over the two levels. He is hardly a basestealing threat.
See You Mid-Season? (4)
Kurt Ainsworth, P: This below-the-radar, non-roster acquisition is an interesting one. Ainsworth is 27. In 2002-03 with the Giants, he had a 3.34 ERA in 91 2/3 innings (17 games, 15 starts). But since 2003, he has thrown only 41 1/3 professional innings. He doesn't figure to make the Opening Day roster, but if he can prove himself healthy again in the minors, he might be a guy the Dodger starting rotation can use.
Russell Martin, C: There's every reason to assume that Martin will tear it up in Vegas, positioning himself for a callup the moment Navarro falters or Alomar is proved unnecessary.
Chad Billingsley, P: Still 21, he'll collect more seasoning at the outset, but he should get his first taste of the bigs this year unless he implodes.
Joel Guzman, IF-OF: The exciting prospect will also eye the major league injury report while discovering his new position, whatever that is. For our part, we'll be watching his plate discipline.
September Callups (5)
Andy LaRoche, 3B: As far as April goes, Mueller and Aybar are ahead of him as starting third baseman. By September, that could all change.
James Loney, 1B: There isn't any reason to think Loney will have a major-league impact in 2006, but there isn't any rush for him to. He's on track for 2007.
Greg Miller: Will continue his comeback from two surgeries, hoping for the best.
Jon Weber, OF: Probably peaking too late, he has put up nice minor league numbers but just turned 28.
Tydus Meadows, OF: Basically the same story.
Check Back in a Year or Two (4)
Matt Kemp, OF: A true outfield prospect, it's not impossible that the 21-year-old Kemp could be the first of the 2005 Vero Beach Dodgers to make the bigs.
Jose Diaz, P: He turns 22 this month but is a five-year minor-league veteran who has averaged 10 strikeouts and 1.7 walks per nine innings in his professional career. Could help the bullpen in the next 18 months.
Justin Orenduff, P: Good strikeout numbers following his mid-2005 promotion to Jacksonville, but a 4.07 ERA gives him something to improve upon there.
Tony Abreu, IF: Headed back to Jacksonville after getting a late-season promotion there in 2005.
Fodder (5)
Joe Beimel, P: ERAs below 4.00 last year with Durham and Tampa Bay. He's been assigned uniform No. 97 - not for sentimental reasons as far as I know.
Eric Stults, P: Some kind of wonderful? Jacksonville 2005, 3.38 ERA; Las Vegas 2005, 6.58 ERA.
Takashi Saito, P: This year's Norihiro Nakamura, pitching side. A 36-year-old (on Valentine's Day) pitcher with a 3.82 ERA in Japan last season doesn't excite.
Ramon Martinez, IF: Do we really need to force the Dodgers' original Ramon Martinez to compete in the team encyclopedia with a 33-year-old infielder who OPSed .639 last year?
Chris Truby, 3B: In the past three seasons, Truby has appeared in 13 major league games despite playing in three organizations desperate for help: Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh and Kansas City.
Fodder's Fodder (3)
Aaron Sele, P: The Ghost of Scott Erickson. The 35-year-old hasn't had a major-league ERA below 5.00 since 2002, and he barely strikes out a batter every three innings.
Edwin Bellorin, C: Bellorin turns 24 this month. There just doesn't appear to be any hitting potential here.
Pat Borders, C: Born before the Kennedy assassination - the first one - Borders stacks up as a AAA player-coach supporting Martin, the way Alomar is supporting Navarro. Borders' professional career began 24 years ago in Medicine Hat.
I actually think those chances are quite high.
Isn't it possible that Drew may start the season on the DL along with Werth? In that case, the struggle would really be for a number 4 and 5 outfield spot. You have to figure Repko's a lock in that case. Would love to see Ethier come up as at least the temp. 4 or 5 OF.
And I'm not sure I'd call Saito fodder just yet. No one, save the few other Japanese players, have faced him. For all I know, he could have a bizarre pitching style that American hitters wouldn't be used to (does anyone know how he pitches?). I don't think he'll make the team, but he has the potential to surprise
At this time I would like to nominate Lance Carter as the honorary Jason Phillips Roadblock player of 2006. This ad has been approved and paid for by the Free Jonathan Broxton Campaign. Thank you.
I don't think there's an arm angle around that will give a 36-year-old reliever with a 3.82 ERA from the equivalent of a minor league a reason to be on the Dodger staff.
I agree with just about the entire roster. As with everyone else on DT, I would like to see Broxton/Kuo/Osoria in the pen in some way.
Maybe at the expense of Carter? Hamaluck? I guess somebody has to start in the minors.
But Carter and Hammerlock are really going to have to do something to win me over. Which they might do, but if it happens, it will be a surprise to me.
For that matter, I'm pessimistic about Tomko, too.
Choi and Kuo are going to be in Asia for part of camp and that will definitely affect their chances of making it with the Dodgers. Of course, the WBC could help showcase Choi.
Martin is also going to be in the WBC, but I don't think Canada will get out of pool play. I would be pretty surprised if the Dodgers let Gagne pitch. Canada could put him on the roster in hopes that the Dodgers would let him pitch in the final rounds, but I still doubt that.
Furcal, Brazoban, and OP are on the DR squad. Cruz and Ledee will likely see some time for Puerto Rico (Martinez is on the roster for the Boricuas as well).
Robles is on Mexico's roster and I would think he would start. He played in the Caribbean Series.
Seo is also on Korea's roster.
The tiebreakers in the standings used for advancement will be head-to-head record, followed by fewest runs allowed per inning, fewest earned runs allowed per inning, highest batting average in head-to-head games and a drawing of lots. The tiebreakers are based on International Baseball Federation rules
Fans of Broxton/Kuo/Billingsley should have no concerns about roadblocks or lack of opportunity.
A greater concern is overwork and abuse. See Jackson, Edwin, 2003.
Given the dearth of good pitching in MLB, if a pitcher is any good, he'll get plenty of chances against major league hitters to throw his arm right out of its socket.
Jon, I think Broxton likely would benefit from more time in the minors. He was pretty innaccurate as a rookie. If your concern is that Las Vegas is a poor environment for him, send him back to Jacksonsville. Same for Kuo. If they're healthy and throwing strikes, they won't be there very long.
The more decent pitchers the merrier in spring camp. Let's say Meadows tears it up but there's no room for him. Maybe you work out a deal to keep him in Triple A -- "4A" pitching depth there was poor last year and it hurt the LAD. Or maybe you swap him for a prospect.
Which Dodger, if any, qualifies for the batting title?
17 - They're both learning, or will be.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=2323199
"The coach formerly known as the Zen Master must now be considered my bucket boy."
What a great line.
vr, Xei
That doesn't mean he won't be worthy and still get sent to the minors, but he won't be held down long.
28 - Wasn't there talk of him buying a stake in...the Pirates?
The more I think about it, the more I hope Hee is traded, for his own sake. The "I hope Nomah gets hurt so Choi gets the starting job" dream is probably misguided, in that there's no guarantee that Hee would get the starting job if Nomah got hurt. A more likely scenario would involve Kent/Saenz/Alomar/Borders getting the job, or Flanders signing yet another aged vet.
Colletti's acquisition of Nomar wasn't quite a door slammer for Choi. Although Nomar profiles defensively at first base more than he does the outfield, the fragility of the team's outfield also was a factor in his acquistion.
Sure, Garciaparra, an infielder all of his life, would likely prefer first base and probably would find it an easier transition than left field (the left fields in the NL West, by the way, are among the most challenging in MLB).
Still, Colletti likely also was getting Nomar as outfield insurance and we've since learned that Werth likely will be out until June.
The point here is that I doubt Colletti/Little are writing off Garciaparra as a candidate for some time in LF to open the season, given the precarious health of the other OFs.
If Nomar shows he can judge a flyball -- and that's in question -- he could slide over to left for at least a few games per week. It's not like Lofton/Cruz/Drew are ironclad locks to be starting everyday. I'd say it's more likely that one of them is on the DL to open the season.
Choi, of course, needs to do his part and crush the ball in spring training. Power appears a short suit with this team. It's up to Choi to show Little and Murray that he can supply it.
Somebody get a warrant
Here ya go
http://tinyurl.com/9eoqu
http://choicentral.blogspot.com/2005/12/d-day.html
Which I believe is directly taken from the Daily News article linked from that post, but which is no longer available on the web.
Sounds like Steve's back On Notice.
43
I guess the Dodgerthoughts spellchecker doesn't recognize that "fantabulous" isn't spelled "okay".
Maybe the persistence that Choi doesn't suck on this site has had an impact? From Dodgers.com, Gurnick proclaims: "Garciaparra has the greatest challenge. He not only is playing a new position, but predecessors Hee-Seop Choi and Olmedo Saenz actually finished the season with respectable platoon numbers at first base (a combined 31 homers and 104 RBIs)." A rare set of props for the 10th best 1B production in the majors last year.
Touche to you, sir.
Robin, to the Choimobile!
The Robin to a Batman.
The Tonto to a Kimosabe.
The Grover Dill to a Scott Farkus.
The Patrick to a Spongebob.
The Jason to a Jayson.
The JD to a Dr. Cox.
But not a Jason to a Ja(y)son. I gotta draw the line somewhere...
http://baseball.fantasysports.yahoo.com/b1
League ID#: 35204
League Name: Friends of Dodger Thoughts
Password: repko
Draft Type: Live Draft
Draft Time: Sat Mar 25 8:45pm PST
Max Teams: 16, Scoring Type: Rotisserie
DBacks vs PD Dodgers
Pitching Matchup Results
B.Webb vs B.Penny ... PD Dodgers win 3-2, 13inn.
Game summary: The Dodgers scored one in the bottom of the 9th to tie the game and then one in the 13th to end a thrilling game. .
O.Hernandez vs D.Lowe ... DBacks win 8-7
Game summary: The Dodgers rallied back from a 7-1 deficit, only to see the DBacks score one in the top of the 9th to win the game. J.Drew and H.Choi each drove in three runs for the Dodgers. J.Estrada and E.Byrnes each had four hits for the DBacks. .
R.Ortiz vs J.Weaver ... PD Dodgers win 12-6
Game summary: The Dodgers scored 9 runs in the first two innings and never looked back. H.Choi, M.Bradley and D.Navarro each slugged HRs, Navarro's was a first inning grand slam. The Dodgers took over first place in the standings.
Now if you did this with pencil, paper, and moxie...
http://tinyurl.com/dd2ml
This has two problems: First, once you lead the league in a category, it doesn't matter how much you lead the league. Usually, there's no difference between hitting 200 and 500 home runs. Also if a large gap emerges between two players, it encourages in the player on the bottom to abondon the category, since they have no chance of catching up.
Second, it places equal weights on every category. On a one for one basis, a stolen base is more valuable than a home run. This leads to things like Chone Figgins and Scott Podsednik being 3rd round picks. (Home runs do end up being slightly more valuable in the end, since you get a run and RBIs too.)
In a points league, you get a certain amount of points for every thing: one for a single, three for a steal, ten for a home run, etc. You total up your points at the end, and that determines the winner. It really is a better system.
By the way, I've really enjoyed your Piazza retrospective. dodgermath.com/?p=260 (that's the latest), if anybody else hasn't seen it. I wonder if Plaschke ever reads back through his own archives. Maybe he could have a staffer read them to him. Slowly.
Even though a points system is fairer (as in, the team with the best overall players usually wins), Roto presents alot of interesting strategic moves. Where as most trades and moves in Points systems are just to try to get the best player possible in any situation, in Roto leagues you get alot of teams playing different strategies and trying to get points in different categories (and trying to screw each other over to lower their points), which makes for a pretty interesting game...
As always, this sort of talk is merely an embarrassment to the player. But the bigger question is whether the Times will embarrass itself by taking the player's side (as it did with Cora, Beltre, et al) or the team's side (thus continuing to highlight the double standard in their respective coverage). Will Tim Brown brush up the resume tomorrow? Stay tuned...
vr, Xei
But since I don't have a new post for you at this moment, carry on.
I haven't played points (unqualified opinion here), but it seems like the draft in the a non-keeper roto league is much more difficult to prepare for if you do the auction style drafting.
http://www.sethspeaks.net/020306.htm
Other interesting MLE numbers:
Billingsly 3.64/1.16
Broxton - 3.27/1.16
Gonzalez - 4.92/1.65
Hamulack - 1.49/1.08 he was awesome last year. Should be at least as good at Wunsch as our LOOGY.
Hanrahan - 5.62/1.64
Orenduff - 3.98/1.23 small sample for starter
Osario - 2.13/