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About Jon
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1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
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7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
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Looking Back on 2006 (Fill in the Blanks)
2006-02-22 07:52
by Jon Weisman
Note: The Dodger Thoughts blog has moved to the Los Angeles Times.

The Dodgers' xx-xx record in 2006 rested mostly on the shoulders of ...

Comments (209)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2006-02-22 08:05:25
1.   Vishal
92-70, j.d. drew and odalis perez.
2006-02-22 08:07:23
2.   Vishal
(hey, it's spring, why not be a little optimistic?)
2006-02-22 09:05:41
3.   regfairfield
87-75, J.D. Drew and Jayson Werth. (Would pick Odalis, but I at least want to be a little unique.)
2006-02-22 09:07:00
4.   Bob Timmermann
82-80, Derek Lowe and Brad Penny
2006-02-22 09:09:55
5.   Inside Baseball
The Dodgers' 88-74 record in 2006 rested mostly on the shoulders of Nomar Garciaparra but it was the right knee of Barry Bonds that handed them the division title.
2006-02-22 09:14:12
6.   Steve
Good Lord, Bob is reading my mind.
2006-02-22 09:18:14
7.   the OZ
89-73: Penny and Lowe, JD Drew and Bobby Abreu.
2006-02-22 09:27:01
8.   Sam DC
The Dodgers' 88-75 record in 2006 rested mostly on the shoulders of young Jason Repko, whose inside-the-park homerun broke a 0-0 tie in the bottom of the ninth inning of the one-game playoff that capped the San Francisco Giants' epic season-ending collapse. For the second time in three years, game-ending Dodger heroics erased the Giants' playoff hopes, and it will be a long offseason indeed for the Boys in Orange, as they nurse their wounds after dropping four straight -- including the playoff -- to close the Season at Chavez Ravine.
2006-02-22 09:51:32
9.   Bob Timmermann
Sam,
The Dodgers finish the season AT San Francisco.
2006-02-22 10:03:28
10.   Andrew Shimmin
9- Even if they need a tie breaker to determine NL West champ? How is homefield advantage decided for those games, anyway?
2006-02-22 10:08:06
11.   Sam DC
You guys suck.

I mean, oops, thanks.

And anyways, it's probably more likely that they move the games to LA avoid rising coastal waters at AT&T Park than Repko wins the season with a home run.

2006-02-22 10:14:12
12.   guspaul
90-72, Jeff Kent (1B), Cesar Izturis (2B) and Eric Gagne.
2006-02-22 10:17:15
13.   Sam DC
It is AT&T Park now, right? The giants mlb.com page still says SBC park.
2006-02-22 10:18:08
14.   Daniel Zappala
88-74, Drew and Nomar having their best seasons in 3 years, and Tomko being dropped from the rotation in favor of Chad Billingsley after the All-Star break.
2006-02-22 10:29:28
15.   Bob Timmermann
The Giants stadium doesn't change its name officially until March 1 I believe.

Homefield for tiebreakers is determined by a coin flip unless there is a three team tiebreaker and then head-to-head-to-head record is used to give one team the advantage of playing just one game.

2006-02-22 10:33:42
16.   Jacob L
So the Giants can change the name of their park every 14 weeks, and we have to observe a cooling-off period to put the names back on the uniforms?

Not that I'm a big "names on the unis" agitator, I'm just asking.

2006-02-22 10:37:59
17.   Curtis Lowe
92-70

After a succesful first half in the mexican league Fernando Valenzuela triumphantly returns to the Dodger rotation after Odalis Perez is released from the team after being caught coddling with Shannon Daugherty. Chad Billingsly is also called up in May due to Tomko having to take emotional leave after the loss of his secret lover Seo who stayed behind in Korea after the WBC to play Cricket. Fernando and Billingsly Guide the Dodgers to a perfect August and they win the west by a landslide.

2006-02-22 11:03:13
18.   Johnson
OT - is anybody else having minor problems with the Toaster? For me, "Best Kind of Reality Check" never showed up on the sidebar but is on the main page, while "Looking Back on 2006" isn't on the main page, but is accessible from the sidebar. Weird.
2006-02-22 11:03:26
19.   MartinBillingsley31
The Dodgers' 87-75 record in 2006 rested mostly on the shoulders of HEALTH, the starting pitching(penny lowe perez seo)(not tomko) and gagne and baez.

When the dodgers have to go to the middle relief they are going to lose alot of games.
The offense isn't going to be powerfull enough to make middle relief a non factor.

I'm expecting good years from penny lowe perez seo and baez will be a great setup man and of course gagne is going to be a great closer.

2006-02-22 11:05:26
20.   Sam DC
18 Yes. Blogging from a chair lift is apparently somewhat tricky . . .
2006-02-22 11:07:41
21.   Ken Arneson
18,20 Just a minor bug of mine that shows up when you postdate a blog entry. Should be fixed now.
2006-02-22 11:15:49
22.   Johnson
The 2006 Dodgers 91-71 record rested mostly on the shoulders of new acquisition Jae Seo, whose 15-6 record and 3.26 ERA were a major factor in giving the Blue a 12-game lead in the West over the once-again Bonds-less Giants by mid-August, allowing the major league club to stick with mediocre 5th starter Brett Tomko (10-12, 4.47) and continue to season next year's presumptive replacement Chad Billingsley in Vegas, where he put up fantastic numbers in the PCL (14-3, 2.45, 201 K in 165 IP).

(Hey, sounds good to me!)

2006-02-22 11:25:26
23.   Marty
The Dodgers' division winning 84-78 record in 2006 rested mostly on the knees of Barry Bonds. If Bond's wheels hadn't completely fallen off in August, L.A. would have finished in second place.
2006-02-22 11:27:57
24.   D4P
Does "xx-xx record" mean that Jon has declared that the Dodgers will neither (1) win at least 100 games, nor (2) lose at least 100 games?
2006-02-22 11:32:55
25.   blue22
Led by Eric Gagne's return to form as the backbone of the league's best bullpen and JD Drew's 144 game season, the Dodgers win the division going away. They're the only team above .500 in the NL West, finishing at 91-70.

Quite a stretch to predict the Dodgers best hitter and best pitcher make the most impact on the season, I know. However after being unceremoniously dumped from the playoffs by the NL Central champs, the StL Cards (again!), neither Drew nor Gagne return to LA in 2007. The Dodgers, though stinging from the early playoff exit followed by the loss of their two best players, are better off for it long-term, saving $77M over the next 3 years (Drew opts-out, goes to the Cubs for 3/$36M, Gagne goes to the BoSox for 3/$45M).

NL East: Mets
NL Central: StL
NL West: LAD
WC: Milw (!)

AL East: NYY
AL Central: Cle
AL West: Oak
WC: ChiSox

2006-02-22 11:34:13
26.   blue22
25 - Or $81M. Whatever 45+36 is.
2006-02-22 11:42:25
27.   Icaros
25

I'll be really amazed if Boras lets Gagne sign for less than 5 years.

2006-02-22 11:44:52
28.   Icaros
It would also seem strange for Drew to opt out and change teams for the same three years and only $3 million more.
2006-02-22 11:45:29
29.   bigcpa
The Dodgers' 81-81 record in 2006 rested mostly on the shoulders of Paul DePodesta whose clubhouse destruction continued to poison the team a year after his dismissal. The absence of Adrian Beltre (.265/.290/.440), Shawn Green (.275/.325/.425) and Steve Finley (.190/.230/.310) left a gaping hole in the middle of the order. In brighter news, JD Drew (.290/.405/.520, 145 games played) has opted for free agency and will rid the team of his albatross $33M remaining contract.
2006-02-22 11:46:42
30.   scareduck
83-79 record, and the generally weak division. In other words, the same thing propelling the Padres to their postseason glory.
2006-02-22 11:47:23
31.   scareduck
29 - ooh, do I detect sarcasm? Or is the Drew bit wishful thinking?
2006-02-22 11:49:53
32.   blue22
28 - I don't think Drew can field contract offers prior to opting out. Either he senses the market will be "hot" and risks it, or plays it safe and stays in LA. If he has a big year (read: "healthy"), I think he leaves, and gets something close to what Toronto offered Brian Giles. And after Chicago gets their first taste of life with an OF of Pierre, Jacque Jones, and Matt Murton, I think they'll be in the bidding.

As far as Gagne goes, I don't think anyone gives him a 5 year deal, though I could be wrong. Boras also wanted Weaver to get a 5 year deal.

2006-02-22 11:52:26
33.   Icaros
32

Maybe you're right, but there's a huge canyon between Jeff Weaver and Eric Gagne.

I'd think with a good season Gagne gets at least what A.J. Burnett got.

2006-02-22 11:55:28
34.   FirstMohican
The Dodgers' 80-82 record in 2006 rested mostly on the shoulders of Ned Colletti, as the Dodger Organization's appeasement of the Los Angeles sports media hit a new low.

After a season of record setting injuries, the Dodgers found themselves in unusually good health, with all 8 position players posting career numbers. Upon fan and media favorite Cesar Izturis' hasty return and a pressured Ned Colletti mandating that he get regular innings, Grady Little proclaims "this is the kind of problem managers love to have." After giving up 2 home runs and hitting 4 batters in 2/3rds of an inning, both Colletti and Little were praised by columnist Bill Plaschke for "giving the kids time to grow. Indeed, there is a learning curve."

"We knew that coming back from Tommy John surgery wouldn't be easy for a shortstop," Colletti explained, "but with the number of successful relief pitchers who have recovered from the surgery we figured it was the perfect fit." The Dodgers showed faith and understanding through Izturis' ups and downs, ultimately watching him finish with a 19.72 ERA and become the first relief pitcher to win a Gold Glove award.

Following a heartbreaking, season-ending home run to Barry Bonds (Izturis' 47th in 45 innings), the dodgers were edged for the division title by a jubilant Giants Team, who finished with a dismal 81-81 record. "We can't say that this has been a total loss. Building a championship team takes time, and I think what we've done this year, what with the guys we brought in mid-season, we've really set ourselves up for a solid 2007," said Little, referring to the trade that brought in superstar Alfonso Soriano from Washington for little-used Hee-Seop Choi and minorleaguers Chad Billingsley and Joel Guzman, who were then sent to Oakland for an injured Frank Thomas.

2006-02-22 11:59:19
35.   D4P
34
The Dodgers showed faith and understanding through Izturis' ups and downs, ultimately watching him finish with a 19.72 ERA and become the first relief pitcher to win a Gold Glove award.

Izturis also became the first pitcher (either starter or reliever) to bad leadoff in, well, a really long time.

2006-02-22 12:17:19
36.   Daniel Zappala
26 Math errors are worse than spelling errors.
2006-02-22 12:23:46
37.   bigcpa
31 That was all sarcasm. I want Drew to stay put unless his body breaks down like the ignoramusentia thought it did in 2005.

My real prediction is 92-70. I think they can go 47-26 (.644) vs. the west and 45-44 outside the division. I picture the offense around 8th in runs and the pitching around 4th.

2006-02-22 12:28:11
38.   blue22
33 - I think Billy Wagner might be a more fitting comparison, who got 4/$43M from the Mets. I could see a Furcal-type strategy working (less years, more money) if teams balk at big years/big money.
2006-02-22 12:32:26
39.   regfairfield
If B.J. Ryan gets 5/55, Gagne will get at least that.
2006-02-22 12:34:14
40.   Jeromy
90-72, the collective health of the entire team. I think with the Dodgers within this weak division, it really is that simple.
2006-02-22 12:44:50
41.   BruceR
9 -- Bob, what Sam failed to mention in 8 as that in the 1st inning of game 1 at Phone Booth Park, Bonds hit his 756th off of September call up Hideo Nomo (continuing the trend of Bonds' hitting milestone home runs against the LAD; in April, he had hit #715 off a 93 mph Gagne 0-2 changeup. The first two strikes were fouls just inside -- but 75' above -- the right field foul pole on a pair of 107 mph fastballs, showing Eric was back. Meanwhile, up in the booth, Vinny was revived with smelling salts).

After being presented in the immediate ceremony with, among other items, a Jeff Kent autographed motorcycle from his Austin dealership, Barry was interviewed over the PA by Pedro Gomez starting out with "Man, I don't need this #@%# anymore." When asked by Gomez to explain, he said, "It's you,", pointing at Gomez. He continued, "and you, and you, and...", pointing at and singling out every body in the stands. When he finished, he turned to his son, standing next to him and still wearing his Payton jersey and said "I'm tired. Let's go home." Whereupon they climbed aboard the Kent-cycle and rode out of Phone Booth.

The incensed fans began throwing their 3 oz. Chardonnay bottles onto the field and, in the ensuing riot, tore up the field. Due to the damage, Bud had no choice but to cancel the homer, declare the game a tie, and move the series to DS for Repko's decisive inside-the-park grounder that rolled thru to the left field wall.

2006-02-22 12:47:03
42.   Bob Timmermann
Does "xx-xx record" mean that Jon has declared that the Dodgers will neither (1) win at least 100 games, nor (2) lose at least 100 games?

The Dodgers haven't lost 100 games in a season since 1908. That was also the last year the Cardinals lost 100 games and both teams are tied for the longest stretch without 100 losses.

The Astros, Angels, and Rockies have never lost 100 games in a season.

2006-02-22 12:52:53
43.   D4P
The last time the Dodgers won 100 games was 1974, which was also the last time I was born.
2006-02-22 13:04:09
44.   FirstMohican
Being serious now: The Dodgers' 86-76 record in 2006 rested mostly on the shoulders of a healthy J.D. Drew.

I don't expect Penny to regain pre-Dodgers '04 form, or Lowe to be what he once was, and see them both being a little better than '05. I don't expect Gagne to be "82 1/3 inning Gagne." He'll probably be a solid and exciting closer, but I think we'll see more than 4 BS in '06.

To take it a little further: The Dodgers' #1 finish in the NLW rested mostly on the shoulders of an only somewhat healthy Barry Bonds, who plays "only" 400 innings. This arrangement barely beat out "The Dodgers' #2 finish in the NLW rested mostly on the shoulders of a dominant Matt Cain.

2006-02-22 13:05:23
45.   Andrew Shimmin
At what point do we become so desperate and superstitious that we beg D4P to convert to one of the born-again religions, in hopes of recapturing the spirit of '74?
2006-02-22 13:07:39
46.   D4P
45
Well, technically, I already belong to a born-again religion, but I've only been born in the physical sense once.
2006-02-22 13:09:18
47.   Bob Timmermann
Can't D4P become an Ana-anabaptist of sorts?

You know, take another baptism for the team?

2006-02-22 13:10:28
48.   ROC
The Dodgers' 83-81 record in 2006 rested mostly on the (missing) shoulders of Milton Bradley, who turned in a monster season for a team that doesn't wear blue. It was the only trade Ned may regret more than dumping Choi at the end of spring training. :P
2006-02-22 13:11:24
49.   Rob M
The Dodgers' 108-54 record rested almost soley on the mighty shoulders of Hee Seop Choi, who wrenched the starting 1st Base job away from Nomar Garciaparra with a torrid Spring and never cooled off. He ended up with .285/.424/.640 line, racking up 48 HR to lead the NL and became the first Korean born player to win the MVP award. Choi-mania grips Los Angeles as the Dodgers set a new team attendance record and Korea Town becomes a the new capital of baseball in Los Angeles.

Frank McCourt takes advantage of the situation by engineering a stunning deal to build a new Dodger Stadium at the corner of Western and Wilshire, incorporating the Wiltern Theatre into the design of the new, state of the art, deco-styled stadium. This new construction in the heart of the Wilshire corridor leads to the construction of a new monorail system along Wilshire from Downtown to the coast. The nonorail eventually expands from the South Bay to the Valley, becoming the truly viable and vital public transportation system that Los Angeles has long lacked.

2006-02-22 13:11:44
50.   Jacob L
I can't believe no one has gone this route yet -

The first place Dodgers (91-71) were carried the whole was by (drumroll please)

Hee! Seop! Choi!

Somebody else can explain what combination of injuries and ineffectiveness will warrant Hee his long-delayed shot.

Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2006-02-22 13:11:46
51.   blue22
44 - Gagne doesn't need to be unhittable, his mere presence on the team allows everyone to shift down one rung in the pecking order. If Gagne can go 80 IP's, the bullpen looks dynamite.
2006-02-22 13:13:03
52.   Jacob L
2 freaking minutes! 2 minutes! 2 minutes I spent trying to think of better jokes.

BTW "was" = "way".

2006-02-22 13:13:17
53.   D4P
On a side note, the Dodgers are 3-0 at Dodger Stadium when I am in attendance. So, rather than forcing me into various and sundry religious ceremonies, your strategy ought to be to purchase season tickets for me and provide me with airfare (from North Carolina), room, board, and ground transportation to get me to as many games at Dodger Stadium as possible.

Something to think about.

2006-02-22 13:15:20
54.   Jacob L
54 I guess you can stay at my house.
2006-02-22 13:25:27
55.   D4P
54
Are you close to the stadium? Are you a good cook? Will I get my own bathroom?
2006-02-22 13:26:59
56.   Bob Timmermann
You can stay with Steve.

I think he's built a baptismal font in his home.

2006-02-22 13:27:36
57.   Jacob L
I'm walking distance from the stadium if you can handle hills. I'm an o.k. cook and my wife's great. Now I have a question for you. How do you feel about changing diapers?
2006-02-22 13:29:06
58.   D4P
56
That would be fun. We could take turns dressing our Hee Seop Choi dolls. His life-size Jim Tracy voodoo doll might freak me out, though.
2006-02-22 13:29:59
59.   D4P
How do you feel about changing diapers?

Let's put it this way: I've had my body altered in such a way that I cannot produce offspring.

2006-02-22 13:32:41
60.   trainwreck
88-74 JD Drew and Jae Seo

I am trying to be optimistic with the Dodgers in my pre-season predictions.

2006-02-22 13:33:23
61.   Jacob L
59 Huh?
2006-02-22 13:36:29
62.   D4P
61
Translation: I am not a fan of changing diapers.
2006-02-22 13:36:42
63.   Andrew Shimmin
61- Snip, snip. At least, that's my ass-u-mption. I wrote this only to use ass-u-mption, which I think is very funny. But which I suspect probably isn't. Anyway. . .
2006-02-22 13:36:56
64.   Brent is a Dodger Fan
The Dodgers 2006 finish of 92 and 70 was only made possible by the incredible health and effectiveness of all the players who were otherwise guesses at the start of 2006:

- Garciapara made a solid contribution at first or Left
- Kent didn't decline (much)
- Furcal improved a bit
- Drew played 135 games or more
- Lofton and Cruz/Werth put up productive offensive numbers
- Penny and Lowe had strong, front of the rotation innings
- Perez and Seo put up strong, middle of the rotation innings
- They found a combination of arms to pitch in the #5 starter role
- Gagne and Baez combined to make a formidable end-game
- Middle relief didn't blow more than 10 holds.

The statistical "elite", however, points out that the expected outcome with all that performance was north of 95 wins, and blames Grady Little. Little is accused of not playing Hee Sop Choi enough (settling for mediocre first-base performance), and making questionable bullpen decisions, sticking with Brett Tompko late into games/late into the season.

Absent a front-line rotation, the Dodgers got creamed in the playoffs. The L.A. Media still calls for Paul DePodesta's head but held a luncheon in Ned Colletti's honor.

2006-02-22 13:40:11
65.   scareduck
47 - An Ana-anabaptist, of course, belongs to a religion whose principle figures are Angels.

We shall not speak of them here again.

2006-02-22 13:45:43
66.   Bob Timmermann
I suppose they would believe in pre-predestination too.

Bob Timmermann, a man who aced his Reformation history class in college. Although was the presence of about 20 football players in the class evidence of a lack of academic rigor?

2006-02-22 13:46:03
67.   Marty
The Los Angeles Angels of anabaptist
2006-02-22 13:46:46
68.   Linkmeister
49 You forgot the part about finding the signed confession of the Black Dahlia murderer during the excavation.

http://tinyurl.com/dnvvv

2006-02-22 13:58:45
69.   Andrew Shimmin
I'm not going to predict a record (because I'm a coward), but I think the low 80's folks are more likely right. The offense isn't that much better and the SP is worse. Scott Erickson only (I use that word advisedly) threw 55 1/3 IP of sucktasticity, last year. Tomko could well throw a hundred and fifty more and be only marginally better. Seo is better than Houlton (who should have Tomko's spot, if Broxton doesn't get it). But Odalis is worse than Weaver. Lowe's league lowest ER/R ratio only needs to normalize a little for that bubble to burst. Penny is good, but he's not good enough to make up for the rest of them. Billingsly probably shouldn't see any major league time this year. It would have been nice to have Edwin Jackson to pin some misguided hopes to, but, oh well.

Lots of things have to go right for this team to get 90 wins. There isn't much reason to predict that enough of them will. Actually, I think the liklihood of failure is greater, on each element, than the liklihood of success. So, while lots of them really could work out, it might be as likely that none of them will, all together.

2006-02-22 14:08:49
70.   natepurcell
health of jd drew and how our prospects respond when the injuries come.
2006-02-22 14:11:56
71.   blue22
Weaver and Houlton are being replaced by Seo and Tomko. Seo could outperform Weaver (I say "could" based on last year, when he "did") and Tomko is an upgrade over Houlton.

The offense needs to stay relatively healthy.

2006-02-22 14:23:53
72.   Andrew Shimmin
Tomko 2005 is an upgrade to Houlton 2005. I predict that that will not hold true in 2006. I also, though, predict that Houlton's 2006 numbers will be of little consquence, so that we'll never know. Which is handy, for me, but what can you do?
2006-02-22 14:29:23
73.   SiGeg
The Dodgers will win 101 games on the shoulders of Jon Weisman and the Dodger Thoughts community, whose brilliant insights and collective wisdom – devoured daily by the entire Dodger organization – will guide Little to field ideal lineups, Colletti to make brilliant mid-season trades, and several Dodger hitters and pitchers to correct tiny but crucial flaws in their mechanics.

Or, if not, the Dodgers will win 86 games.

2006-02-22 14:42:28
74.   bhsportsguy
Okay, remember that Neddy does not read dodger thoughts as far as we know.

From Jim Callis, Baseball America Chat on espn.com:
What infield prospect on the west coast is going to be dealt to the Red Sox for David Wells? I would think a team like S.F. or L.A. could really use a pitcher of his pedigree in that tight N.L. West race... Sox need to get some youth on the infield dirt since they dealt Hanley and Marte away.

Jim Callis: The Dodgers are in better position to deal an infielder than the Giants, who have Marcus Sanders but probably wouldn't deal him. The Dodgers could afford to part with a Chin-Lung Hu or a Etanislau Abreu and maybe a Justin Orenduff or a James Loney to get Wells.

2006-02-22 14:47:23
75.   Voxter
The Dodgers' 93-69 record rested mostly on the shoulders of a surprisingly healthy Brad Penny, who finished second in the Cy Young voting with a 19-6 record and a 3.14 ERA despite (or possibly because of) never throwing more than seven innings in a game. (Jake Peavy, unanimous winner at 20-4 with a 2.21 ERA, was the only player on the San Diego Padres to turn in what might be called "a complete season of work".) The Dodgers ride Penny and Eric Gagne, rested after a pair of sprained big toes sidelined him for three weeks in August, to the NLCS against the Wild Card Milwaukee Brewers.

In game seven of that series, Penny and Ben Sheets duel through six and a half scoreless innings. Then, in the bottom of the 7th, Sheets loads the bases. Nomar Garciaparra doubles home two runs before Sheets gives way to Tomo Okha, who escapes the jam.

Penny, who has clearly been flagging since the sixth, comes out to start the eighth for the first time all year. Gagne and Baez, exhausted from each being used in four of the last five games, sit idly in the bullpen, spitting sunflower seeds. When Penny walks Prince Fielder on four pitches, stirrings are seen in the bullpen. Blue-clad fanatics wait with bated breath: Rick Honeycutt trudges out to the mound, while in the pen . . . Odalis Perez, scheduled to start a hypothetical game one of the World Series, has begun to loosen up. Where's Yhency Brazoban? Couldn't Gagne or Baez take one for the team? Lance Carter, he of the 8.09 post-season ERA, is clearly not an option, but . . . Perez?

Penny opens Geoff Jenkis with two consecutive balls in the dirt, the second of which skitters past Dioner Navarro to the backstop, sending Fielder to second. Dodger faithful everywhere scream for relief. Penny's cooked. Stick a fork in him. His next pitch, an 87-MPH sinker that doesn't sink, turns around at the plate and doesn't come down until it's reached the right-field bleachers. The crowd screams with rage. Televisions across California are flung from living rooms to kitchens. Incidence of heart attacks and strokes skyrockets. There is rending of garments, wailing and gnashing of teeth. Oh yeah, and Rick Honeycutt finally comes out again, signalling for Perez.

Perez, who has not appeared in relief since 2001, comes on and is clearly out of his depth with a short warmup. Brady Clark doubles past a hobbling Werth in left. Pinch-hitter Bill Hall singles Clark home. After J.J. Hardy grounds into a fielder's choice, Rickie Weeks nails it shut with another home run, this one just clearing the fence in left.

The Brewers pen has no trouble holding onto the three-run lead, stranding pinch-hitter Hee Choi in the 8th and J.D. Drew in the 9th.

Grady Little has the strangest sense of deja vu as he is tarred, feathered, and once again ridden out of one of baseball's biggest markets on a rail.

2006-02-22 14:47:36
76.   natepurcell
we arent going to trade for davis wells. i hope wells breaks down in june so we can end this nonsense.
2006-02-22 14:49:11
77.   natepurcell
75 was way good. i laughed.
2006-02-22 14:58:06
78.   King of the Hobos
75 That wild pitch must have really been wild if Prince Fielder could make it all the way to 2nd. Or maybe it bounded into the stands somehow and Fielder is awarded 2nd. And Brady Clark must have had one heck of a breakout season to be batting 6th
2006-02-22 15:04:03
79.   bhsportsguy
BTW: Yes it is only the analysis of one publication but the Dodgers are going to have 9 of the top 100 (96 actually) prospects according to Baseball America.

96. Matt Kemp - ETA 2007
89. Andre Ethier - ETA 2006
82. Blake DeWitt - ETA 2008
63. Jonathan Broxton - ETA 2006
55. Scott Elbert - ETA 2008

They only ranked 51-100 today, 1-50 tomorrow and I am assuming that Chad, Russ, Andy and Joel will be listed within that group.

Any guesses on their ETA, Chad and Russ in 2006 and Joel and Andy in 2007, perhaps?

For comparison, based on BA's top ten prospects for each team, the Angels will have 7 players in the top 100, Diamondbacks 6 players, Padres have 1 prospect.

2006-02-22 15:13:21
80.   Voxter
Clark's batting 8th. I was having a little logical trouble when I started off with the batting orders.
2006-02-22 15:15:46
81.   Voxter
Also, you can assume that passed ball ricocheted into the Brewers' dugout, if you want.
2006-02-22 15:22:23
82.   King of the Hobos
80 Oops. I missed Bill Hall (thus assuming Hardy came immediately after Clark). That makes more sense
2006-02-22 15:25:16
83.   Voxter
Post Script:

The surprising Milwaukee Brewers advance to the World Series to face the also-surprising Cleveland Indians, who ran away with the AL Central and have been a playoff juggernaut, marching past the Red Sox and the heavily-favored Oakland A's to the tune of a 7-2 record in the playoffs.

It turns out to be the most boring World Series since the Padres were demolished by a clearly superior Yankees squad in 1996. With Sheets unable to pitch after he got dizzy, fell, and sprained his shoulder during the celebrations after the NLCS victory, the Brewers are helpless to prevent the Indians from scoring and are mercifully put out of their misery in four games, over the course of which the Indians score 34 runs.

Another WS draught is quenched in spectacularly uninteresting style. Dodgers fans are left to assume that they could have won at least ONE game against those guys, dammit, if not for Forrest Gu -- er, Grady Little.

2006-02-22 15:33:44
84.   Xeifrank
Well, Colleti's Dodgers are currently 19-20 and 7 games behind Depodesta's Dodgers who were added to the NL West this season to make an even 6 teams. Still too early to say if this is a .500 team or better. vr, Xei
2006-02-22 15:36:30
85.   D4P
84
Wouldn't it make more sense to run two separate simulations: one with Flanders' Dodgers and one with Depo's?
2006-02-22 15:38:22
86.   Suffering Bruin
The Dodgers 105-57 record rested mostly on the shoulders of Hee-Seop Choi! who, after riding the bench for the better part of April and May, was given the starting position by default after Mr. Mia Hamm pulled a hammy. Choi! proceeded to win the National League Triple Crown, pitch five shutouts (who knew!) and miraculously cured Mr. Mia Hamm of his hamstring pull just in time for the post-season.

"Chai really came through for us. We're grateful to have a veteran presence like Nomar back in the line-up," said Manager Grady Little. "It's not that Chia didn't play well during the year but veteran leadership is what counts in the postseason."

The Dodgers are upset in three games by Houston. Columnist Bill Plaschke puts the fault for the loss largely on the shoulders of Choi for his 0-3 performance as a pinch-hitter.

"Where is all the talk now of a great player?

Where are the DePodesta Trekkies?

They are silent.

They know now what we all have always known.

The regular season is for show.

The post-season is for pros.

When it counted most, Choi was the wrong choice for the Dodgers.

Wrong choice, indeed."

In a related story, Plaschke was kidnapped by a South Central Los Angeles teacher and forced to write two-sentence paragraphs before he could be released.

Plaschke is still missing.

2006-02-22 15:38:32
87.   Xeifrank
85. Yeah but, #1 I didn't want to sim a bye for one team each game and #2 I wanted to see how they did head to head, mano y mano, seop y seop, depo y colleti, mumble y jumble.
vr, Xei
2006-02-22 15:40:21
88.   Xeifrank
86. Very creative. A+
vr, Xei
2006-02-22 15:43:11
89.   Icaros
I'm going to start calling him Chai from now on.
2006-02-22 15:46:53
90.   Suffering Bruin
90 I was worried you would notice. It was my favorite part of the post and I thought, "If he's reading this, I've just doomed MATFAB (myalltimefavoriteasianballplayer) to a season of being nicknamed after my wife's favorite drink (yes, she's Indian).
2006-02-22 15:48:45
91.   Suffering Bruin
Uh, make that 89. Not that I don't mind talking to myself.

What? Really?? I gotta go, guys.

2006-02-22 15:51:27
92.   Voxter
Hee Chai Tea. It has a ring to it, you know.
2006-02-22 15:56:07
93.   Wayne Wei-siang Hsieh
Re: 86

Oh, man, that was priceless.

I'll predict that we go 83-79, ending the season with a productive but not spectacular Choi at 1B, Nomah out with injury, Ethier in LF, and Billingsley posting a 8-4, 3.95 ERA after being called up mid-season to replace Perez, who tears his labrum. However, we do win the division.

WWSH

2006-02-22 16:01:18
94.   Jon Weisman
This was great. Glad the topic brought out the entertainer in so many of you.
2006-02-22 16:05:46
95.   Sam DC
Everyone's busy trying to make the cut for Best of Dodgers Thoughts Volume II.
2006-02-22 16:09:12
96.   DodgerJoe
My writing skills pale in comparison to some of the recent posts, so I thought I might take a serious look at the season.

88-74 The season hinges on pitchers Odalis and Gagne and position players Drew and Nomar.

They win the division contingent on Bonds being out a portion of the year.

2006-02-22 16:15:33
97.   Voxter
86:

Video tape of Little's comments is interpreted by many as blatantly racist, and by others as criminally stupid. Thuogh it is commonly thought to be Angelenos of Korean descent who are calling for Little's head on a stick, the resentment is in fact much more widespread.. The video creates a sensation across the nation. Plaschke's disappearance is assumed to have been orchestrated by members of the city government, or perhaps Frank McCourt himself, as a ruse to keep the columnist out of harm's way.

Finally, after months of waiting for a verdict, Frank McCourt appears on television to announce that, not only is Grady Little going to remain as Dodgers manager, but the Dodgers will be hastily constructing a new ballpark in the San Fernando Valley, specifically in a town called "Idioton", known to be populated by nothing but drooling morons. The city erupts. Little and McCourt are burned in effigy. Mobs of baseball fans descend on the Dodgers' offices. The "flashpoint" of the ensuing protest is the west parking lot of Dodger Stadium, where the crowd spots someone who looks kinda like Grady Little driving away in a Range Rover. Unable to catch the inept manager as he speeds off, the crowd turns its rage on the infrastructure of the Stadium itself. Finally, President George Bush must send in the National Guard to protect the landmark.

At the peak of the violence, Hee Choi appears on local television to say, "Can't we all get along here? Can't we get along?"

In the aftermath, an ashamed Frank McCourt offers to sell the Dodgers to Choi for the low, low price of one dollar. Choi, citing a lack of playing time and subsequent disillusionment with the American game, opts instead to take a contract with the Chiba Lotte Marines of Japan's Pacific League, which has promised him a full season of at-bats as their starting DH. Arte Moreno swoops in and, through some extremely shady back-room dealing with MLB, is able to purchase the Dodgers. He then melds the Dodgers and Angels into a superteam that wins the World Series for seven years running. Angelenos are never quite sure what to make of the Los Angeles Dongels of Idioton and Anahiem.

2006-02-22 16:41:47
98.   D4P
My wife and I just got back from a yummy noodle house restaurant named "Chai's."
2006-02-22 16:50:03
99.   D4P
Is this board aware that the Mariners have a player named J.J. Putz?
2006-02-22 16:54:34
100.   Andrew Shimmin
I'm not sure, but it's possible that the U.S. Men's curling team was just eliminated, sans medal.
Show/Hide Comments 101-150
2006-02-22 17:05:45
101.   Bob Timmermann
99

I have, but I can't speak for everyone.

Not that I haven't before.

2006-02-22 17:08:09
102.   Bob Timmermann
The U.S. men lost in the semis, but they should be playing Great Britain for the bronze tomorrow. Finland and Canada go for the gold.

It's really Scotland, not Great Britain. The announcers call them the "Scottish side".

2006-02-22 17:14:27
103.   D4P
Grittle not too excited about Choi and Robles leaving for WBC:

With measured words, manager Grady Little discussed the repercussions on a player who leaves, even for a patriotic cause. Choi and Robles could be trade material if they don't make the club as reserves.

"I tell them all the same thing. Just know your priorities," Little said about the advice he gives his players, particularly young players fighting for roles like Choi and Robles. "There's 57 players in camp and 25 jobs. You do the math. There's a difference in a player that has a job and a player that doesn't have a job."

2006-02-22 17:36:31
104.   Bob Timmermann
The bronze medal curling match will be played Friday at 4 am PT. Should I live blog it stone by stone on The Griddle?
2006-02-22 17:42:46
105.   Steve
There's a difference in a player that has a job and a player that doesn't have a job.

This was true in 2005, though in a Twilight Zonish sort of way.

2006-02-22 17:43:23
106.   regfairfield
103 My response to that would easily break the rules of the site.
2006-02-22 17:44:12
107.   natepurcell
can robles be sent down or does he have to go through waivers?
2006-02-22 17:46:40
108.   regfairfield
Didn't Robles say he was going back to Mexico if he didn't make the team?
2006-02-22 17:48:24
109.   dsfan
Sorry if this is off topic, but Baseball Prospectus came out with its Pecota lists for all 3B prospects and ranks Willy Aybar fourth, a tick ahead of LaRoche and other prospects who get more widespread acclaim such as Ian Stewart (Rockies) and Ryan Braun (Brewers).

I'm not wild about WARP because, among other things, I doubt its ability to capture defensive value. Still, I've been very pro-Aybar and believe Pecota could be tapping into Aybar's production for someone who is still pretty young.

With all the hullabaloo over the Top 10 lists for the Dodgers, I thought Aybar got overlooked, assuming his MLB time didn't precluded his eligibility.

He can do a lot of things fairly well. I love the durability he's shown. Could he be a bust? Sure. The power numbers are weak for his position. May not be the best of situations for him here -- it's asking a whole lot for any young player to adapt to a bench role (further, he's got to maintain two swings).

2006-02-22 17:55:51
110.   natepurcell
in last years top 50 prospects by BP, they ranked willy aybar #30.

they always have been high on aybar. decent average, good walk rates, low K rates. they have hoped his power would have developed by now. it still can i guess but i have my doubts.

also,pecota is very biased towards players who have played in the upper minors. im not real big on pecota predictions for prospects because i think there are too many variables that prospects have to accurately predict performances 5 years down the road.

2006-02-22 18:01:14
111.   Steve
That Colletti/Little/Ramon Martinez axis is going to be hard to break.
2006-02-22 18:14:10
112.   dsfan
110

I agree about the five-year forecasts being pretty flimsy. And I think the defensive valuations are suspect as well. And as BP admits, the health factors aren't well captured by Pecota (there, I think Aybar actually could get a little undervalued, given his strong durability record).

Still, the system has its merits. Lots of compelling aspects to its ability to filter and apply many aspects of a hitter's statistics within his career and ballpark track.

Yes, I remember being pleased that BP thought more of Aybar than BA last year. I think Aybar played closer to his BP ranking, if you include his strong month in the majors.

One good thing is that I think Little will give Aybar a fair shake. Little is the rare veteran manager who has a strong grasp of evaluating young talent and handling young talent. His time as a manager in Atlanta's system gives him a leg up over many veteran managers in that area.

2006-02-22 18:34:55
113.   Vishal
i believe his first name is actually "hee seop", not "hee".

it's like billy bob thornton. you wouldn't just call him billy thornton, or even billy. he's billy bob. choi's name is hee seop.

2006-02-22 18:38:53
114.   Steve
His first name is Jason, but he doesn't publicize the fact.
2006-02-22 18:41:44
115.   Icaros
Couldn't Aybar be reasonably expected to match the production of, say, Bill Mueller for the next two years?
2006-02-22 18:44:55
116.   bigcpa
Couldn't [CHOI] be reasonably expected to match the production of, say, [NOMAR] for the next two years?
2006-02-22 18:48:39
117.   natepurcell
Couldn't [billingsley] be reasonably expected to match the production of, say, [tomko] for the next two years?
2006-02-22 18:50:46
118.   bigcpa
THIS IS FUN!

Couldn't [Duaner] be reasonably expected to match the production of, say, [Baez] for the next two years?

2006-02-22 18:53:49
119.   Steve
Couldn't [Houlton] be reasonably expected to match the production of, say, [Carter] for the next two years?
2006-02-22 18:56:48
120.   Steve
Couldn't [Martinez] be reasonably expected to match the production of, say, [Izturis] for the next two years?
2006-02-22 18:56:59
121.   natepurcell
Couldn't [Repko] be reasonably expected to match the production of, say, [Lofton] for the next two years?

........

....... damnit, back to the drawing board.

2006-02-22 18:59:58
122.   Steve
Couldn't [Repko] be reasonably expected to match the production of, say, [Ty Cobb] for the next two years?
2006-02-22 19:05:23
123.   Icaros
Wow. I was wondering if my question was too obvious.
2006-02-22 19:07:18
124.   Vishal
[122] ooh ooh, i got this one!

"but steve, ty cobb is dead!"

2006-02-22 19:11:42
125.   Steve
Thank you, thank you. There's a matinee show and women get in half price on Tuesdays.
2006-02-22 19:13:39
126.   dzzrtRatt
Couldn't [Arrested Development] be reasonably expected to match the production of, say, [Stacked] for the next two years?
2006-02-22 19:14:01
127.   D4P
Couldn't [Martinez] be reasonably expected to match the production of, say, [DeShields] for the next two years?
2006-02-22 19:14:49
128.   natepurcell
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5351350

perry comes out with 21-30

22 is billingsley
27 is laroche

i guess guzman will be in the 11-20.

2006-02-22 19:21:32
129.   Vishal
i couldn't care less what perry thinks
2006-02-22 19:23:52
130.   natepurcell
perry called the dodgers farm overrated 3 months ago and then proceeds to place 10 dodger prospects in his top 100 list.
2006-02-22 19:24:01
131.   Steve
Couldn't [Perry] be reasonably expected to match the production of, say, [Plaschke] for the next two years?
2006-02-22 19:24:14
132.   Daniel B
The Dodgers record of 86-76 rested mostly on the shoulders of Jim Tracy and utility Infielder Yurendell Decaster, along with Mike Edwards.

The Dodgers are tied for first in the NL West with the Giants with 2 weeks left to play in the season. With series against the lowly Pirates, Diamondbacks, and Rockies coming up, the Dodgers are confident they can go into San Francisco with a lead in the NL West race.

But everything changes when Jim Tracy, Yurendell DeCaster, and Mike Edwards come to town for a 3 game series on September 19th.

Following Jim Tracy's MO of playing unknown prospects instead of better players, Tracy benches Sean Casey in favor of Yurendell, starts Mike Edwards instead of Joe Randa, and sends Oliver Perez to the bullpen to give Tom Gorzelanny a few starts to see what hes made of.

In the first game of the series, Gorzelanny starts and pitches a gem. Up 2-0 and running on serious fumes, Gorzelanny puts two on with 1 out in the bottom of the eigth inning. Instead of bringing lefty Oliver Perez in to face Kenny Lofton and JD Drew, Tracy sticks with Gorzelanny who promptly gives up a single to Lofton, which scores 1 run. At this point, Tracy wakes up, and decides to play the percentages, bringing in Perez to face JD Drew. But Little is on his toes, sending in reserve outfielder Jason Repko in to bat for Drew. Repko promptly singles to center to tie the game.

The game goes into extra innings, where Lance Carter comes in to pitch the top of the 12th inning. Yurendell, 0-5 on the game, homers to center, the Dodgers are retired 1-2-3 in the bottom half of the 12th, and they fall 1 game behind the Giants, who shutout the Rockies 2-0 behind a complete game shutout by Brad Hennessy.

Game 2 follows much the same pattern. With Ryan Voglesong tiring, Tracy brings in Damaso marte to face Jeff Kent in the bottom of the ninth, who promptly hits a 3 run homer to tie the game. In the top of the 13th, DJ Houlton gives up a 2 run Double to Mike Edwards, playing LF today instead of jason Bay. The Dodgers fall to the Pirates 7-5 on Wednesday the 20th. The Giants, who win 9-5 giving Matt Cain his 18th win of the season, surge 2 games ahead of the slumping Dodgers.

Thursday is a total nightmare for the Dodgers. Victor Santos pitches a complete game, 3 hitter, Jose Hernandez hits a 2nd inning grand slam, and the Pirates cruise to a 9-0 win, behind a 4-5 performance by none other than Yurendell DeCaster. The Giants beat the Brewers 3-2 after Barry Bonds scores from 2nd on a wild pitch by Mike Adams that skirts through the legs of Damian Miller in the top of the 10th inning in Milwaukee.

Reeling from the beatdown the Pirates gave them, the Dodgers go on to lose 7 out of their last 9 games, falling short of the Giants in the NL West.

2006-02-22 19:24:46
133.   Steve
130 -- Was that pre-DePodesta firing, as in Plaschke's "change of heart"?
2006-02-22 19:29:33
134.   natepurcell
i would think that perry, being a writer for BP, would be pro-depo.
2006-02-22 19:31:27
135.   Steve
You would think I was pro-depo, but it wouldn't necessarily be so.
2006-02-22 19:32:31
136.   natepurcell
the enemies (depo) of your enemies (tracy) are your friends.
2006-02-22 19:33:02
137.   Icaros
As if Steve could be pro-anything...
2006-02-22 19:35:18
138.   natepurcell
As if Steve could be pro-anything...

steve is pro repko.

2006-02-22 19:35:19
139.   D4P
As if Steve could be pro-anything...

I hear he's quite fond of yard work.

2006-02-22 19:53:11
140.   Steve
I'm pro-not bunting. I'm pro-not trading prospects for fungible middle relievers.
2006-02-22 19:59:42
141.   D4P
I'm pro-not bunting.

There was a cute girl in my high school named Katy Bunting. You may have been pro-her.

2006-02-22 19:59:44
142.   Andrew Shimmin
I think Little is right to threaten WBC participants. After all, spring training exhibition games are so much more meaningful than WBC exhibition games.
2006-02-22 20:02:51
143.   Steve
Unless she was a pitcher, she should not have been bunting.
2006-02-22 20:06:12
144.   D4P
she should not have been bunting.

She's probably not, anymore.

2006-02-22 20:08:17
145.   dsfan
Dayne P. is a talented analysts who appears to be spreading himself too thin. It happens.
2006-02-22 20:10:12
146.   Steve
Neither is JD Drew, hopefully
2006-02-22 20:13:30
147.   dsfan
Ramon Hernandez's presence is of no concern.

He doesn't make the team unless one of the projected IF starters gets hurt and possibly Robles/Aybar too.

Colletti and Little know Martinez is washed up.

He's strictly an emergency addition to camp. With WBC siphoning away some players, including Robles, you need the extra bodies.

The kids should get enough innings to state their case and get ready.

2006-02-22 20:15:15
148.   Steve
They knew Baez was a middle reliever and that didn't stop them. Trust, but verify.
2006-02-22 20:17:20
149.   Icaros
Remember how Choi bunted in one of his other at-bats the game he hit three HRs?
2006-02-22 20:20:14
150.   dsfan
Somewhere during spring training, I hope to see Little/Colletti come to grips with where Nomar is best suited to play:

Left field.

His long, slingshot throwing motion doesn't fit at first base -- where you need to be very quick with your throwing. Maybe he can adapt, but he's been throwing that way his whole life.

He should be OK at picking the ball and fielding grounders -- but there's a pretty sharp learning curve overall, being on the other side of the field. It's not good when the throwing is a poor fit (besides the obvious, alterating his throwing increases the injury risk).

Not sure he could judge a flyball, but his throwing is more suited to LF than 1B.

It's tough to learn two positions in one camp at his age. Very challenging spring ahead for Nomar, who has enough trouble staying healthy.

But I think it would be best if Little gives Nomar a game or two per week in LF.

Show/Hide Comments 151-200
2006-02-22 20:21:10
151.   Steve
Choi is a pretty good bunter; it sickens me that we know that.
2006-02-22 20:22:14
152.   dsfan
Baez is a hedge against Gagne's health and the rest of the bullpen's inexperience. He's done a lot more lately than Ramon Martinez, who also is on a non-guaranteed deal.
We'll find out in five weeks -- but I'd be stunned if he's on the 25-man roster, unless there are significant injuries.
2006-02-22 20:24:45
153.   Steve
If Baez is a "hedge against Gagne's health," so are Brazoban, Houlton, Sele, Kuo, Osoria, Broxton, and yes, even Lance Carter.
2006-02-22 20:25:47
154.   willhite
153 -

Not only can Martinez play all of the infield positions and all of the outfield positions but he used to be a pretty good pitcher. Taught his younger brother Pedro a lot. We may have to keep him on the roster to mentor all players except catchers.

2006-02-22 20:27:51
155.   Steve
He couldn't help Jesus though.
2006-02-22 20:28:57
156.   willhite
Steve, is your definition of a middle reliever anyone who doesn't start games and isn't the official closer? Or are there varying degrees of worthlessness (sp?)
2006-02-22 20:29:45
157.   Steve
Most closers are middle relievers who happen to finish games.
2006-02-22 20:30:04
158.   Voxter
This is getting a little Kafkaesque.
2006-02-22 20:31:08
159.   willhite
159 -

I hear Kafka is now in the mix for the #5 starter's job.

2006-02-22 20:33:13
160.   Icaros
I don't see how Nomar's throwing motion makes much difference. If he was quick enough to make the plays from SS, he's quick enough to play first.

Many of the worst athletes in baseball history were able to play a decent first base.

2006-02-22 20:35:09
161.   willhite
157 -

So let me see if I understand your position correctly. Are you saying that with very few exceptions, all relief pitchers are more or less interchangeable and it's ridiculous to pay them very much or trade a good player for one because you can find a replacement on any street corner?

2006-02-22 20:43:22
162.   Steve
That is close enough that I won't go further unless I have to. Another, or overlapping, way of putting it, is that middle relievers are those pitchers that are defined more by luck than by skill.
2006-02-22 21:16:46
163.   willhite
162 -

Interesting way to look at it.

2006-02-22 21:34:53
164.   fordprefect
-49-
-& all the rest of you smart-@#$ess-
Haven't laffed that hard in ages!
Thanx
-FP
2006-02-22 21:36:59
165.   dsfan
160

Nomar's athleticism isn't the issue on the move to first.

It's his throwing. Have you seen much of him?

Long, slingshot action. He wasn't very accurate at short. His arm is very strong -- but he's not a quick, accurate thrower. Never was. He was a great hitter. He was tough. He was good at fielding grounders and he showed impressive arm strenght.

You'll see when he has to make quick throws to second base. Or to home plate.

2006-02-22 21:37:28
166.   Steve
DON'T PANIC
2006-02-22 21:39:32
167.   dsfan
Steve,
Comparing Baez to Martinez still doesn't fit.
2006-02-22 21:41:48
168.   Steve
167 -- of course not.

163 -- "Interesting" is the new "Stupid" :) But I'm stuck with it.

2006-02-22 21:46:02
169.   natepurcell
bas top 50 is posted!
2006-02-22 21:48:29
170.   Andrew Shimmin
How could arm accuracy be more important at 1B than in LF? Or any other position, save DH?
2006-02-22 21:50:47
171.   Steve
I'd like to be a fly on Nate's wall when he sees who #7 is.
2006-02-22 21:54:07
172.   das411
Don't keep us in suspense Steve, is it Tiffany or EJax?
2006-02-22 21:56:21
173.   Andrew Shimmin
172- Niether made the list. Billingsly is #7, behind both of the Dbacks' SS prospects.
2006-02-22 21:57:24
174.   natepurcell
well billingsley did it. hes now the top rated RHP in baseball.

BA's top rated RHP the last 10 years.
2005- felix hernandez
2004- edwin jackson
2003- jesse foppert
2002- josh beckett
2001- josh beckett
2000- john patterson
1999- brad penny
1998- kerry wood
1997- kerry wood
1996- paul wilson

a lot of repeats, but the noteable busts are paul wilson and foppert.

2006-02-22 22:05:40
175.   LAT
103. A bit weak on Grady's part. While I understand his position it would be nice if some consideration were given to plyers, such as Oscar, honoring their comitment to their country.

I like Oscar and would really like to see him make the team. I love the way this guy works the count. If he gets four ABs agame he is going to make the opposing pitcher throw 20+ pitches to him alone.

2006-02-22 22:06:43
176.   das411
Give Foppert a couple of years in Safeco (with King Felix ahead of him in the rotation, no less) and then tell me who the biggest bust on that list is...eh, it'll still be Paul Wilson, nvm.
2006-02-22 22:07:21
177.   natepurcell
also, the dbacks are going to be very tough foes over the next 8 years.
2006-02-22 22:07:45
178.   dsfan
70

I didn't say that arm accuracy is more important at 1B than LF.

I said that Nomar's lifeling habit of flinging the ball with a long motion is not conducive to the throwing demands at 1B.

His inaccuracy problems likely would be less harmful in LF -- from there if you get it near the base or home you're doing OK. There, his arm strength, which is good, plays better.

A first baseman has to be more precise, and he has to get rid of the ball quicker.

It's going to be a tough adjustment, tougher than throwing from LF would be for him. (Who knows if he can read a flyball)

One reason clubs backed off on putting Nomar at 2B is that his throwing motion isn't a good fit there for the pivot, where you have to be quick and able to throw flatfooted. (The Dodgers had no such concerns when Depo, according to Gammons, unwisely offered Nomar $27m guaranteed last offseason -- a deal that Nomar turned down, after which Kent signed).

2006-02-22 22:08:08
179.   natepurcell
well, foppert blew his arm out correct? so we chalk that one up to injuries. so did paul wilson right?
2006-02-22 22:12:02
180.   LAT
Don't know what the Dodgers record will be, I only care that they win the division. For me the season rests on Drew and to a lesser extent on OP.

For the record, I expect Tomko will turn out to be better than most of us predict. I beleve Nomar will be very good and healthy. Kent will be good but not as good as last year (how could he be). So it comes down to Drew.

Having said that keep in mind that last year I believed Nakamoura deserved more playing time and was the answer at 3B.

2006-02-22 22:15:22
181.   Steve
I expect Tomko will turn out to be better than most of us predict.

There's a lot of room for that prediction to be successful.

2006-02-22 22:19:51
182.   LAT
181. LOL. Ok, I 'll really go out on a limb and predict he will be at least .500. I worry more about OP than Tomko.
2006-02-22 22:22:44
183.   Andrew Shimmin
How many times per week does the 1B throw anywhere but to the pitcher? Three? Five?
2006-02-22 22:26:35
184.   das411
179 - Paul Wilson was way before my time just like you Nate, you'll hafta ask some of the old-timers around here.

I went to see Foppert pitch once in Philly. That game ended up being memorable for an entirely different reason...(go Bob go!)

183 - Ask Jeff Bagwell. Or his agent. Or the hitman the 'stros have hired to take care of him...

2006-02-22 22:27:01
185.   regfairfield
175 I was surprised that his isolated patience isn't that good. It's only in the .060s.

Also saw that the Diamondbacks have six in the top 50. That team scares me.

2006-02-22 22:28:46
186.   King of the Hobos
177 They look scary, but they still need to prevent runs. Even if they can form their rotation around Nippert, Webb, and Mock, I'm not sure that would be good enough. Sure, they may be a threat to score 10 runs in any one game, but so has Colorado over the last several years, and look how it has worked out for them
2006-02-22 22:30:51
187.   natepurcell
well they do have the 11th pick in the 2006 draft. i see them drafting a college pitcher... if kennedy or scherzer falls, probably them.

Josh brynes is probably the luckiest man alive. he hardly has to do anything for the next 6 yrs or so besides get some pitching.

2006-02-22 22:34:47
188.   regfairfield
186 True, but considering they dumped almost all their ugly contracts, it wouldn't surprise me if they made a serious run at acquiring one or two premier starters this offseason (potentially Barry Zito, Doug Davis, Kelvim Escobar or Jose Contrares, among others.)
2006-02-22 22:41:21
189.   natepurcell
barry zito will be a dodger. they can have doug davis.
2006-02-22 22:41:55
190.   natepurcell
I had scouted Chipper Jones and A-Rod before and to me, Guzman's bat was better. At 16 years old, the kid was as good as or better than anyone I'd ever seen."
--anonymous scout

i love anonymous scouts!

2006-02-22 22:46:41
191.   Icaros
I hit a single off of Doug Davis in 1993.

Our careers really went into opposite directions after that encounter.

2006-02-23 00:07:41
192.   natepurcell
hensons new article is what im talking about.

"Light tower power!"

2006-02-23 00:54:19
193.   Andrew Shimmin
192- You liked the part about Colletti moving JtD to 1B, too, right?
2006-02-23 01:04:40
194.   Andrew Shimmin
I wonder what McCourt bartered to get somebody to write this little ditty (from the Tim Brown interview, today):

"You've got to be an owner of a baseball team to understand what it means to be an owner of a baseball team, and to fully internalize the notion that you're really not an owner, you're a steward."

2006-02-23 01:13:09
195.   natepurcell
1b would be such a waste of guzmans athleticism and rocket arm. personally, i think they should let him play CF first and see how he adapts to it there.
2006-02-23 01:40:08
196.   CanuckDodger
192 -- Nothing in Henson's article says that Guzman is going to first base. Colletti made the possibilities sound pretty open-ended, likely not wanting to get locked into anything. But I know that Logan White has said that he sees Guzman's future in the outfield, and I am sure White will be one of the people contributing his judgment to whatever decision is ultimately made. And the Dodgers are not going to displace Loney at first base. Some people around here dislike Loney, but the Dodgers, and especially White, are high on him.

On Nate's suggestion to put Guzman in center field, that wouldn't work. Guzman is not just slow, he lacks the agility to make the quick jumps in reaction to hit balls that center fielders need. Frankly, Guzman isn't even quick enough to play first base or third base well. Line drives down the lines get on first basemen and third basemen very quickly, and I have heard that Guzman is very slow to react to such drives. Right field is the place for him, just as it was the place for Juan Gonzalez, to whom Guzman has so often been compared.

2006-02-23 08:49:18
197.   dsfan
182 -- I agree that OPerez inspires little confidence. Injury frequency is a concern. And his conditioning. And his participation in the World Classic for a team that, because of patriotism and deph issues, could be inclined to ask too much too soon.
2006-02-23 08:59:13
198.   dsfan
183

Obviously a 1B doesn't throw often.

But those throws are more apt to be critical than a typical throw by an IF.

Less of a safety net.

I suspect the most common throw for a 1B is to 2B on either a pickoff or a sac bunt.

Those are pretty much assumed outs -- and if you goof, you've got a guy on 2B or 3B with fewer than two outs. That's a good way to start a big inning.

Obviously a misfire to home results in a run.

Is that a prohibitive cost?

Of course not.

But it drops the defensive scale farther than people may be thinking when they envision Nomar at 1B.

Given that his offensive value as a 1B is probably average, that sort of weakness on the margin is one of the reasons Nomar should be prepped at LF.

2006-02-23 09:02:05
199.   dsfan
195

Guzman is CF would be a huge reach.

Scoutting reports are he is slow as a shorstop, that the game's too fast for him there.

If it's too fast for him there in Double-A, he's more suited to a corner outfield spot as a big leaguer.

2006-02-23 09:02:30
200.   dsfan
195

Guzman in CF would be a huge reach.

Scoutting reports are he is slow as a shorstop, that the game's too fast for him there.

If it's too fast for him there in Double-A, he's more suited to a corner outfield spot as a big leaguer.

Show/Hide Comments 201-250
2006-02-23 09:07:41
201.   dsfan
185, 187

Josh Byrnes still has a lot of work to do.

The team's defense stinks.

The bullpen was wretched last year.

The rotation stinks.

Lot to like about Stephen Drew but he's far from a sure thing at SS.

Injuries caused Drew to miss significant time with three teams last year.

It's unrealistic to expect Upton to help much before 2009.

Conor Jackson is a nice hitting prospect, but he's a defensive liability.

2006-02-23 10:08:01
202.   Andrew Shimmin
198- What makes you think 1B throws are, "more apt to be critical"? But, even assuming they are, how much of an impediment is Nomars throwing style? Does he bungle an extra (more than average) throw in every ten? Twenty?

There's a perfectly good reason to move Nomar to LF. Why do we need a new one?

2006-02-23 10:40:25
203.   dsfan
I spelled out why 1B throws are more apt to be critical. That's percentage of throws. He's throwing to 2B or home -- not 1B.

How much of an impediment is Nomar's throwing style? Remains to be seen, but I've seen a lot of Nomar and believe it'll be a tough transition, one that I have yet to read about in Dodger accounts (could've missed it, though). Again, major league clubs, Cubs included, deemed him a poor fit at 2B for the same reason.

I expect it to add a negative component to his profile at 1B, less so than it would in LF, and I believe his arm would be OK there.

Obviously that's not the only reason to put anyone in left.

This is a debate on the margins of his skill set and where things fit, but it's still important, especially when you're projecting him as a starter.

Smaller point: given Nomar's history of injuries, altering his throwing mechanics isn't optimal from a health standpoint -- and he'll need to alter them as a 1B.

2006-02-23 10:52:56
204.   Sushirabbit
Real late to the DTComedy Party, but man, I'm glad I made it at all. I have a feeling this will make BoDT II!

2006: 90-72 Kent and Furcal, and Penny

I think the coming season turns on having consistency and dependability up the middle, if Furcal or Kent miss more than a few games I foresee lineups too much like last year (in number and in kind). If Kent and Furcal and Drew produce like they can and the corners can offer up anything over replacement player value, things look good. Well, I guess depending on the #5 spot in the rotation.... and the #4 spot.... and the #3... lookout if Lowe doesn't deliver. Maybe I should revise down to the 80s range. I suppose 100 losses is imaginable.

I'm at least interested in the possibilities.

Also, I think the Milwaukee organization is on the rise. The difference between them and Pittsburgh is like UT basketball last year and this year.

Been out with a bad back for several days, it was tough catching up, but worth it.

2006-02-23 11:23:39
205.   Andrew Shimmin
203- Three possibilities occur to me:

1. You're wrong.
2. You're right, but it's a relatively tiny problem, not worth two runs a year. Sure, better to have those two runs, but: oh well.
3. You're right, and the whole thing is over my head.

My money's on two.

2006-02-23 12:03:30
206.   dsfan
Not worth two runs a year?

A bad-throwing 1B can cost you that in a week.

2006-02-23 13:13:22
207.   Andrew Shimmin
You haven't established that Nomar will be a bad throwing 1B. Only that he has what you find to be an overly long, slingshot throwing style. It's an interesting complaint, but it wouldn't seem to translate to: Chuck Knoblauch-ism.

Whether a bad-throwing 1B can cost a team two runs a week or not (it could happen, but I'd be amazed if it could happen averaged over a season. Two runs a week from the 1B's arm? Maybe, but I don't buy it), isn't the question. It's what Nomar's arm will cost if he's left at 1B. My guess, next to nothing, if not nothing itself.

2006-02-23 13:31:33
208.   Howard Fox
98-64...Dioner Navarro & Nomar Garciaparra
2006-02-25 17:51:30
209.   thinkingblue
93-69 record mostly rested on the shoulders of Nomar Garciaparra, Eric Gagne, the defense on the left side of the infield, and the JD Drew.

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