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About Jon
Thank You For Not ...

1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with

Guzman Left In?
2006-02-28 15:22
by Jon Weisman
Note: The Dodger Thoughts blog has moved to the Los Angeles Times.

Joel Guzman has been given a shot to make the Dodger starting lineup in left field, according to Ken Gurnick of MLB.com.

Though I'm wary of rushing a young'un to the bigs, I don't mind giving out a job that the team was practically begging Antonio Perez to take last summer, if he would just catch a ball.

It's good that the team isn't necessarily satisfied with Jose Cruz, Jr. in left and is open to the idea that it can do better. Whether Guzman is ready to be better, I don't yet know. (I am purposely not mentioning one left-field option, since that has been declared mooter than moot.)

* * *

Reminder: Infielder Ramon Martinez fills no need on this team. Isn't that something we can all agree on? Whatever your feelings on McCourt, DePodesta, Tracy, Choi, Beltre, Steiner, whomever, can any fan be standing up for Ramon Martinez II?

Comments (406)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2006-02-28 15:43:03
1.   Curtis Lowe
"Infielder Ramon Martinez fills no need on this team"

Sure he does...

2006-02-28 15:44:41
2.   Curtis Lowe
When will it be safe to get my Guzman jersey?
Without Jinxing his career?
2006-02-28 15:46:35
3.   MartinBillingsley31
Why does everyone like lofton better than cruz?
Why couldn't that article say guzman has been given a shot at starting in the outfield because the team isn't necessarily satisfied with lofton?
2006-02-28 15:49:37
4.   dsfan
The Dodgers are hyping Guzman. I smell a trade. Bet he's dealt before the year's done.
2006-02-28 15:51:59
5.   Curtis Lowe
4- BLASPHEMY!
2006-02-28 15:53:37
6.   Curtis Lowe
If JtD makes the team I will honor whoever gave him that knickname by getting a jersey with JtD on the back.
2006-02-28 16:02:14
7.   brandesh
Hopefully Mr. Ned only thinks Ramon Martinez has value in Vegas. Lets also hope this depth is targeted towards putting the best team out there rather than the just the old guys.
2006-02-28 16:02:56
8.   Benaiah
Did you read the article where it mentioned that Little was worried about "that Oakland thing" where you don't swing at 3-0 pitches. "Ethier said his new manager was right about his old approach at the plate.

"It's been ingrained in me since I was young," Ethier said. "I've been successful with that approach, not chasing balls out of the zone. It can be a tough adjustment." What does that mean? Are they encouraging him to chase pitches? Little's comment was one of the most boneheaded things I have read recently and I just hope that Little was taken out of context.

2006-02-28 16:03:26
9.   natepurcell
The Dodgers are hyping Guzman. I smell a trade. Bet he's dealt before the year's done.

guzman and martin for miggy cabrera? done.

if they are hyping him, that "monstrous" bomb to right center today just inched up his trade value a bit.

taking this from the last thread, anyone else concerned with little's "this isnt oakland, we swing on 3-0 here" comment?

2006-02-28 16:05:12
10.   natepurcell
i really think that comment by little has just set off a huge fire alarm here at the DT community.
2006-02-28 16:08:09
11.   Icaros
That non-patience philosophy sure worked wonders for HSC.
2006-02-28 16:11:08
12.   Steve
I wear an extra large. Thank you.
2006-02-28 16:12:20
13.   GoBears
10. I have a sick feeling about it too. Here's the optimistic interpretation: Little doesn't want it to be a rule that all 3-0 pitches are automatically taken, and he thinks that's a rule in Oakland. That's OK by me. Nothing wrong with allowing a hitter to hack 3-0 if he has a good eye and it's grooved. I mean, I sure as heck wouldn't tell Bonds to take 3-0 if he liked what he saw. But even dumber than a "take 3-0 no matter what" rule would be "swing 3-0 no matter what."

That's the optimistic take. But I don't believe it's the correct one. This is going to be frustrating. Still and all, I'll take fewer walks if it also means fewer bunts.

2006-02-28 16:12:42
14.   Icaros
Little already seems as arrogant, blind, biased, counterproductive, and useless as Jim Tracy ever was.

Bad news: I'm finding it harder and harder to not wish I was an A's fan.

Good news: Steve's new blog should be as wonderfully entertaining as the last one.

2006-02-28 16:13:56
15.   King of the Hobos
The Giants will be paying Randy Winn $8.5 mil in 2009. Wow
2006-02-28 16:14:48
16.   Jon Weisman
You should neither take nor swing at all 3-0 pitches. Totally hitter- and situation-dependent. No further discussion needed.
2006-02-28 16:18:12
17.   Midwest Blue
14 A's fan? With two -- count them TWO -- cancers on their team? Taking bets on how many games into the season it takes for Milton to go after Frank.
2006-02-28 16:18:12
18.   D4P
Grittle's job interview with Flanders:

Flanders: Thanks for meeting with me. I have a question for you.
Grittle: Shoot.
Flanders: Do you do "the Oakland thing"?
Grittle: No.
Flanders: You're hired.

2006-02-28 16:22:30
19.   Icaros
16

I totally agree. It's Little's Plaschke-esque generalization of the Oakland organization that really bothers me.

2006-02-28 16:23:21
20.   GoBears
16 Obviously correct. So the worry is that Little prefers moral absolutes to situational ethics. That might get you into baseball heaven, but I'm not so sure about the playoffs.
2006-02-28 16:24:18
21.   Icaros
17

Bet you those cancers win a hell of a lot more games this year than our lovable bunch of gamers do.

2006-02-28 16:25:36
22.   Steve
The problem is that 3-0 is not an "Oakland thing;" it's a long held cherished tenet of baseball. It's so long-held and cherished, in fact, that the odds are against it being useful. Nevertheless, that Grady Little appears to be an idiot is most unsatisfying.
2006-02-28 16:26:21
23.   Midwest Blue
21 -- We agree to disagree. The season will tell...
2006-02-28 16:26:29
24.   dsfan
Little hasn't said he prefers moral absolutes. A few here seem quick to infer them.
2006-02-28 16:27:33
25.   dsfan
Two predictions:

Joel Guzman gets traded this year.

Rafael Furcal moves to center field before his contract runs out.

2006-02-28 16:29:47
26.   natepurcell
what are you basing those predictions on?
2006-02-28 16:34:40
27.   student of the game
D. Lowe talks about the C.Hughes situation.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5368932

2006-02-28 16:35:09
28.   jasonungar05
....we feel fortunate to get him in the trade," Macha said. "I've been watching him in batting practice, and he stays inside the ball as good as anybody in camp. The ball jumps off his bat."

no, he isn't talking about Milton.

2006-02-28 16:35:48
29.   Andrew Shimmin
25- Overly long, slingshot style throwing motion?
2006-02-28 16:41:36
30.   dsfan
29--

I'll charitably assume you're not being snide.

Nomar's arm action isn't suited for 1B.

You can disagree with me, but you're also disagreeing with several major league clubs on that score.

Maybe you should see how it plays out.

2006-02-28 16:42:16
31.   DodgerJoe
Do anyone have a breakdown of today's intrasquad game? I am curious to see what the pitchers did.

Is there a link?

2006-02-28 16:48:29
32.   dsfan
26--

Call them educated hunches.

2006-02-28 16:48:40
33.   Midwest Blue
Bad news for the NFL: Talks break down. No salary cap extension. Free agency in peril.

More fans for baseball?

2006-02-28 16:49:27
34.   bhsportsguy
Jon - I think Ned is holding on Ramon Martinez for when he is ready to trade Felix Pie for a proven veteran.

I'm glad that Oscar is in camp, he will play a lot with Izzy and Furcal in and out with recovery. His only real negative is speed but he can fill in 2nd, SS and 3B, he hit .272 in over 300 at bats,and his contract will be around $350 - 375K while Martinez made 1 million last year. He is also four years younger.

2006-02-28 16:50:14
35.   bhsportsguy
BTW I kiddingly meant Dusty trading Pie for Martinez.
2006-02-28 16:52:28
36.   Vishal
[9] taking this from the last thread, anyone else concerned with little's "this isnt oakland, we swing on 3-0 here" comment?

YES.

even scarier was ethier's quote on having to adjust to hacking at balls out of the strike zone. it's like i'm in bizarro land.

2006-02-28 16:53:31
37.   ToyCannon
25
That is a bit bizarre predicting one of the best fielding SS in baseball will move to CF before he turns 30. I guess it is possible that Hu will be ready by 2008 but I doubt that Furcal's agent would allow them to move him in his walk year. Agents run this business and a player doesn't agree to do anything until he has run it by their plethora of advisors.

Glad to see Jack Wilson get that contract as now Izzy looks even more valuable to the right team. Sure wish Atlanta hadn't acquired Renteria as we'd have been a nice match for them if Izzy can stay at SS which I'm betting on. Wish the Twins would trade for Choi.

2006-02-28 16:57:47
38.   bhsportsguy
While we may all think that even if Drew has another 2004 type year, based on what was out there, he might not opt out of his contract with the Dodgers (and if he has a 2005 year, he certainly will be around), the rest of the Dodger outfield is pretty wide open. Based on that, any Dodger prospect or young outfielder (Werth) on the roster has a chance to stick. I have to think that will want to give Guzman, Young, Ethier, Kemp and the sleepers like Justin Ruggiano and Anthony Raglani a shot.
2006-02-28 16:58:48
39.   thinkingblue
3.
Because Lofton is a 6 time all star, who hit .335 last year, and went 22/25 in SB attempts. And he is a 4 time gold glove winner. You got to stop your fantasy bleep about downing on Lofton, he is better than Cruz. Baseball is not all about the following:

www11.brinkster.com/xtraxisx/t3.html

2006-02-28 17:00:49
40.   Marty
I want my JtD t-shirt. I'm collecting the whole set.
2006-02-28 17:04:12
41.   GoBears
24
Little hasn't said he prefers moral absolutes. A few here seem quick to infer them.

Didn't say that he did. I could be wrong more often than not, but I always try to choose my words carefully. I said that the "worry" is that does. Meaning "my worry."

And it's not an obviously dumb thing to worry about. Lots of people like to have "rules to live by," figuring that having a rule is easier than making decisions on the fly. It's been my experience that long-time baseball men are disproportionately of that type.

So, no, I don't know that Little is unthinking. But statements like the one quoted make me worry that he might be.

2006-02-28 17:04:19
42.   Marty
So, Werth is out of the picture then? Will he be bundled in a trade with HSC?
2006-02-28 17:05:14
43.   jasonungar05
Dude the last time Lofton won a gold glove, our hitting coach was a DH and Jeff Kent was a reserve (to Carlos Baerga)
2006-02-28 17:06:32
44.   dsfan
37-

Indeed, it's a bizarre prediction. Time will tell.

2006-02-28 17:06:35
45.   ToyCannon
39
I'm a Lofton fan more then most on this site but posting someone's past accomplishments when they are a 39 year old center fielder does little to defend your position. His days of gold glove defense are far in his past. His 2005 average was his best in years and hasn't been a consistent 300 hitter since 1999. If you translate his Phillie 2005 numbers to Dodger Stadium he still had a solid year but to expect a 39 year old to duplicate the best year he had in 5 years seems silly.
2006-02-28 17:07:57
46.   regfairfield
39 My primary concern for Lofton can be summed up in one number: 39.

42 I really hope that Werth isn't out of the picture. I'm fantasizing that Werth boots Lofton to the bench and given at least two months to show us what he can do if healthy, but I'm not optimistic about it.

2006-02-28 17:08:07
47.   dsfan
There are few certainties with Drew.

I think he could skate if he has a big year.

He's not an LA-type of guy.

2006-02-28 17:08:57
48.   bhsportsguy
36 - Remember this is the same type of thing we heard with the team wanting HSC to become more agressive at the plate. And while that seems to be the mantra of LAAofA, it certainly does give one pause. But again, as Jon says, while there were players like Ventura or Zeille who would never swing at the first pitch or a 3-0 pitch, I think it is a game by game situation.

I always thought that what Oakland and the Yankees for that matter believe, is that by making the pitcher make more pitches, you get to their bullpens earlier which gives you a better chance to win. No one ever seems to bring up the Yankees in this discussion and they are always among the leaders in walks.

I think the bigger issue is telling Ethier that he should look for a pitch to hit instead of waiting out a walk, I always thought the auto-take was a little inane, if the pitcher knows he can throw a "strike" that the batter won't swing at, then he can set up a pitcher's strike at 3-1. Maybe someone has tracked this, I wonder what the collective average is on 3-1 after the batter has taken the first strike at 3-0.

2006-02-28 17:12:06
49.   GoBears
39 Fantasy bleep? How does that help?

I don't care if Lofton is a sure hall of famer based on his career stats (which he ain't). All that matters is what he projects to do this year. And for guessing that, last year was the anomalous one amidst a secular decline over the past several years. And he's even older and in a pitcher's park. I expect him to be pretty lousy this year. Better than lousy if platooned, but lousy if played every day. I haven't even looked at any projections - what do those say?

2006-02-28 17:16:58
50.   ToyCannon
Mike Cameron had hit 4 home runs in a game and the count went 3-0 and he took the pitch. It was right down the middle. I thought he was nuts but BP gave him props for playing the game right. I thought they were nuts. In his previous chance to hit his 5th home run he had been hit by a pitch. He is the only player to get 2 chances to hit 5 home runs in a game and he watched his pitch go right down the middle of the plate. He then lined to right.
Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2006-02-28 17:19:47
51.   Steve
Now that he's broken the rules of the site what do you propose we do with him, LAT? :)
2006-02-28 17:21:03
52.   ToyCannon
49
That he'll be fair to middling to crappy but nothing like 2005.
BP has him at
283/346/370 for his median projection. A decent OB but quite a hit in power as he's slugged above 400, 4 years in a row.
HQ has him at
258/324/334 which is a bit dismal and backs up your claim.
2006-02-28 17:23:24
53.   PennyJavy
Lofton's ZiPS Projection: 265/320/378
2006-02-28 17:29:29
54.   ToyCannon
Just for fun I checked retrosheet to see what Mays did at the age of 39. Not shabby. Still wished I'd see him play in his prime instead of at the end of his career.
2006-02-28 17:34:49
55.   trainwreck
I think I pretty much do not agree with any manager baseball strategy wise.
2006-02-28 17:42:05
56.   Andrew Shimmin
30- I disagree with several Major League clubs everyday before breakfast. It's stopped bothering me, when I do.

Is the only reason you're willing to give (for your bizarre prediction that Furcal gets sent to CF) really that other people think so too? Is the real reason a secret?

2006-02-28 17:42:06
57.   Vishal
why can't the GM be the field manager too? how much extra effort would it be?
2006-02-28 17:42:09
58.   natepurcell
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=kurkjian_tim&id=2347129

cool article on our catchers.

2006-02-28 17:42:12
59.   Inside Baseball
OT and sorry if this has already been discussed in another thread but did you guys see Randy Winn's 23.25 million dollar contract extension with the Giants? I for one am ecstatic that they're placing some of their post-Bonds resources in a guy like Winn.

From the AP:
"The switch-hitting Winn, slated to be the team's leadoff hitter and starting center fielder this season, will get a $3 million signing bonus and salaries of $4 million in 2007, $8 million in 2008 and $8.25 million in 2009, according to agent Craig Landis.

Winn will make $5 million this season in the option year of his prior deal."

2006-02-28 17:44:19
60.   Andrew Shimmin
Pat Caddell has the worst barber on the planet.
2006-02-28 17:45:43
61.   Brent is a Dodger Fan
49 a reminder not to feed the trolls. It is too easy to argue that one season for a veteran does not predict the next (witness Steve Finley 2004 to 2005).
39 Consider your tone when you say You got to stop your fantasy bleep about downing on..., because one could just as easily throw such invective about any argument made by anyone, including, perhaps, you.

Oops. I fed a potential troll. Shoot me.

2006-02-28 17:50:58
62.   Icaros
I've really grown to dislike the very idea of MLB field-managers over the past couple years.

Their jobs, to me, seem as meaningful as the college basketball star who gets paid to keep alligators out of the gym.

2006-02-28 17:52:21
63.   D4P
Regarding "swinging on 3-0": the 2005 3-0 Dodger splits are pretty remarkable. Unless I'm reading it wrong, the 2005 Dodgers racked up a total of 2 basehits on 3-0 counts, while drawing 131 walks.

http://tinyurl.com/guldw

2006-02-28 18:09:03
64.   D4P
62
I've really grown to dislike the very idea of MLB field-managers over the past couple years.

Yeah, I really started to feel the same way last year. I mean, if it's the GM's job to assemble the roster, and if the GM (as Depo did) has really strong preferences for who should be starting and at what positions, then why not just let the GM make the lineup everyday, and let the coaches handle the other responsibilities? There are obvious problems when the GM and manager don't see eye to eye, so you might as well just let the GM make the roster decisions.

The 2005 Dodgers make a great case for "Managers: what are they good for?"

2006-02-28 18:10:41
65.   regfairfield
Absolutely nothing.

Apparently.

2006-02-28 18:13:16
66.   das411
50 - That was the most exciting line out I have ever watched though.

64 - The 2005 Atlanta Braves (or NY Yankees or ChiSox for that matter) show you exactly what managers are good for.

2006-02-28 18:17:03
67.   D4P
Is there a rule that teams must have a manager? If not, I'd like to see a team (e.g., a relatively poor $$ team with nothing to lose, such as, say, Tampa Bay) begin a season without a manager and see how it goes.
2006-02-28 18:18:12
68.   Icaros
I thought the 2005 Atlanta Braves showed us what having the best farm system in baseball for the past 20 years was good for.
2006-02-28 18:22:05
69.   trainwreck
Remember after the Marlins series choke job, do not expect Colletti to have much of a fondness for Jose Cruz Jr.
2006-02-28 18:25:20
70.   regfairfield
69 I don't completely remember that game, but wasn't that drop just icing on the cake?
2006-02-28 18:29:49
71.   bhsportsguy
63 - I checked out the espn.com site for split stats, its true the Dodgers had 2 hits in 12 official at bats on 3-0 counts (I knew that one of them was a Jeff Kent grand slam), Kent was by far the leader of being able to swing 3-0 with 7 attempts and both hits.

However, it does seem to be par for the course, for example, the Angels only had 2 hits in 3 at bats.

Maybe Grady has a point, Oakland had one at bat on a 3-0 count by Chavez otherwise they walked every other time (I think 112 walks in 113 plate appearances). I should have checked Oakland's stats on 3-1, I can tell you that Dodgers hit .329 on 3-1 counts, some of the leaders include HSC batting .529, Oscar Robles and Jason Repko.

Who knows what this proves, generally 3-0 probably means that you are going to walk the vast vast majority of times so you should probably limit attempts for Rick Monday key analyst point of looking for a pitch to drive.

2006-02-28 18:31:58
72.   bhsportsguy
67- Well there was the year that Jerry Coleman left the broadcast booth to manage the Padres. Not quite as sucessful as Pat Riley leaving the booth to become the Laker's assistant coach and them be hired as head coach a few years later.
2006-02-28 18:33:05
73.   GoBears
I wouldn't go so far as to argue that mangers are pointless. Maybe they're pointless-to-destructive during games, but I imagine that the key to managing has to do with keeping 25-40 millionaires focused for 6 months. It's probably not a coinky-dink that they're called "managers" and not "coaches." All those other old guys do the coaching.

And even for the in-game stuff, I imagine there's a lot of variation in how much managers run the show versus following the advice of their coaches. Sure managers make pitching changes, but how do we know when they're leaving the decisions about same to pitching coaches? Same thing for pinch hitting or defensive switches. Having one guy as the overall "manager" of the game makes sense. It's about accountability.

Just like the presidency - it's not a one-person job by any stretch, but it's still a good idea to have one person who is supposedly accountable for all of the decisions of the others.

A lot of us just think that only bad choices can come from independent thoughts during games by those guys. Hire smart underlings, then get out of the way.

2006-02-28 18:33:19
74.   D4P
71
I may have been a bit premature in using the word "remarkable", as I didn't look at any other teams' splits.
2006-02-28 18:35:49
75.   GoBears
I wouldn't go so far as to argue that mangers are pointless.

OK, I choose my words carefully, but apparently not my keystrokes. Mangers might in fact be pointless, but I guess that's a religious issue, far from the purview of DodgerThoughts.

Managers is what I meant. Yeah, that's it.

2006-02-28 18:36:26
76.   Steve
Managers can render themselves pointless, and most do.
2006-02-28 18:40:36
77.   Icaros
Maybe they're pointless-to-destructive during games, but I imagine that the key to managing has to do with keeping 25-40 millionaires focused for 6 months.

If I owned a team, I'd hire an in-dugout, licensed psychologist/counselor.

Why pay a Harley-riding bumpkin to do the work of a professional therapist?

2006-02-28 18:41:25
78.   PennyJavy
Three-and-Oh by John Walsh for the Hardball Times, http://tinyurl.com/7ad4t. Basically talks about the 3-0 Count. "Advisory: one thing I don't intend to do here is to try to determine the optimal batting strategy to adopt on 3-0. That might be an interesting study, There are numbers here, as you will see, but they're not so much for thinking about as for perusing and (hopefully) enjoying."
2006-02-28 18:44:00
79.   Gen3Blue
I don't know exactly why.

But something in this thread got me thinking----
Werth-spring 2005, drilled by a Barnett fastball;wrist broke, torn ligament not discoverd till after season; surgery in Nov.!! not ready for spring!
Drew- nursing his shoulder this spring after labrum surgery. Also clean-up surgery
on right wrist.(avoided surgery on left wrist,broken by pitch on June 3rd,ending season effectively! not to mention chondromalcia(progressive arthritis in left knee.!
Furcal- had surgery on his right knee in January(January!!!) and is not ready for spring training!
Although I condensed the evidence it can't be denied given the money involved there is massive incompetence in either medical evaluation or Front office decisions.
Somehow Isturis has managed to rise above this meat grinder. It was obvious he declined hugely trying to play with grevious injuries. It could be that he will shine out of this mess.

2006-02-28 18:45:25
80.   D4P
77
I was going to say the exact same thing. If the primary role of the manager is to motivate the players and maintain a focused, harmonious clubhouse, why not hire a consultant who specializes in those skills?

Perhaps some kind of Matt Foley type...who lives in a van...down by the river...

2006-02-28 18:48:29
81.   Icaros
79

How cruel is it that the only two Dodgers since 2004 who returned from injury ahead of schedule were Cesar Izturis and Alex Cora?

80

There you go!

2006-02-28 18:49:37
82.   bhsportsguy
78 - That is great thanks, it does seem that by a little perusal, most teams don't swing that much on 3-0, but the real damage is done at 3-1, again no total stats but led by the Yankees and the White Sox who hit .391 and .390, I think the highest team averages are at 3-1 and then first pitch swinging. BTW, the A's also hit I think .350 plus, Bobby Crosby is the big hitter, there.
2006-02-28 18:54:32
83.   Bob Timmermann
I think they're called "managers" because they started out as guys who handled all the business dealings. The "manager" didn't start making the field decisions until the late 1880s more or less. Usually the team captain did.

Soccer teams in countries other than the U.S. are led by "managers" and not "coaches".

2006-02-28 18:58:28
84.   Steve
Of course, it's the pointless ones that do the least harm.
2006-02-28 18:58:34
85.   GoBears
80 I can't believe I'm defending managers as a species, but I think there's an obvious answer to that question -- players need to "respect" the source of advice. So either a Frank Robinson type, who was so good he must know what he's doing (right, Bob?) or a kindly old bumpkin who has been wearing the uni for 400 years and has forgotten more about baseball than the young players know, etc. etc.

That doesn't make it right, but it makes it understandable that no club has bothered to innovate away from the tried and true. Young pups like Eric Wedge really do stand out as exceptions.

There used to be a lot of player-managers, but not for a long time.

2006-02-28 18:58:57
86.   bhsportsguy
79, 81 - On the other hand everyone misreporting Gagne's injury EVEN after it was reported shortly after surgery that he did not need a TJ operation, all the media outlets kept saying he was going to be out for the better part of 2006. It was not until this winter when they started reporting his injury correctly.

And actually once Penny came back last April, he was injury free for the rest of the year.

I blame the Padres for another problem last year, had they just gone out and won going away, basically putting the Dodgers out of the chase by mid-August, maybe we could have seen HSC play everyday, Jeff Weaver might have been dealt (although people here might like the draft picks more) and injuries like Werth and Drew's could have been examined more closely. But because we had that more than slight chance to stay in the race, Drew tried to rehab for September, Werth continued to play despite apparently never being right and Weaver kept pitching for the Blue. Are we better off because we stayed in the race or did we lose a chance to make some evaluations.

BTW, I apologize if this was brought up during the dog days of last season, if it was thourougly vetted, then accept this rant and we can move on.

2006-02-28 18:59:23
87.   das411
67 , 77 , 80 - Actually Tampa Bay seems to have found one of those: http://tinyurl.com/ldhl8

Steve et al, it's almost time for our weekly fix of Betty White and William Shatner...

2006-02-28 18:59:30
88.   Icaros
Eric Gagne already thinks he's the GM. Do you think he'd accept the team captain role?
2006-02-28 19:00:21
89.   D4P
85
players need to "respect" the source of advice

But can't pitching coaches, hitting coaches, etc. etc. offer legitimate advice that players will respect?

2006-02-28 19:00:47
90.   GoBears
83 Ah well, 'twas a worthy effort nonetheless. OK, it IS a coinky-dink, but it's also appropriate.
2006-02-28 19:05:11
91.   Gen3Blue
I must admit, when our infield had Beltre, Isturis, and Cora (was it 2004?) and we had Roberts and for some reason I felt like the Dodger tradition was intact and I was actually proud of the way we played!! I know it wasn't ideal but it has theme and style and thats what a team needs.
2006-02-28 19:08:01
92.   Steve
There are lots of reasons why teams don't innovate, none of them having to do with whether what they are doing now is successful.
2006-02-28 19:10:49
93.   Sam DC
Guess the player who commands the same respect as Roger Clemens (in his own mind):

"If somebody has a good year, stays injury-free and goes out there and does their job, I don't know why you would expect that person to take a backup role," [Player X] said. "If Roger Clemens goes out and pitches well and does his job, I don't think there would be teams that expect him to take a role as a reliever. I don't know why anyone would expect me to do that when I feel my abilities are going on the upswing, not the other way."

http://tinyurl.com/s9f9j

2006-02-28 19:11:54
94.   GoBears
89 Sure. But they can also undermine the "manager" if they feel they know more than he does. Just wait, D4P, until you get your first academic gig, and have to teach a 400-student class with 10-12 unionized teaching assistants, some of whom are older than you. The "managing" part rushes to the forefront. It's no longer about how much you know, and much more about how well you're able to convince people your way will work.

Also, it's not just advice. It's also decisions about playing time.

Look, I agree that the more managers make their presence felt during games, the worse it usually is for their teams. But I also believe that vertical accountability works better than some sort of group decision making.

Remember those long threads before DePo was fired about how hard it was to come up with a name of someone who would play DePoBall, but still seem legit as a manager to the players? Some of us guessed that Hershiser might be such a guy, but it was really just pure speculation, probably because he wears nerdy classes.

2006-02-28 19:13:07
95.   Marty
Boy am I having a bad experience with T-Mobile. I get a blackberry for my work and go two billing periods with out a bill for the device. Then I get a call from T-Mobile saying they are going to shut off my service if I don't pay the overdue bill for the phone. I tell them they never sent me a bill and she says "You should have called us when you didn't receive it". I say I always didn't receive it so should I be calling constantly? She doesn't find it funny.

Today, I get a bill for the amount I paid last month with a 2/1/06 due date. With it is a sheet of paper saying ignore the due date, the January bill is not due til 3/11. But it's the bill I already paid! Argh. I know they are going to try to dock me for that amount again if I don't put up a fight.

I hate T-mobile

2006-02-28 19:13:20
96.   Steve
I said Gigantor. I get no points.
2006-02-28 19:14:10
97.   Steve
You haven't lived until you've gone on a six year jeremiad against Qwest, the Jim Tracy of phone services. Good times.
2006-02-28 19:18:20
98.   Marty
T-Mobile is the Danys Baez of phone services. Nice spokesperson though...
2006-02-28 19:21:02
99.   Andrew Shimmin
93- Given the choice between him and the player whose spot he's fighting for, I'm not sure I don't choose him.
2006-02-28 19:21:08
100.   ToyCannon
93
That has to be Baez without looking. Once Gagne proves healthy expect Baez to be a solid trading chip and I bet we get more for him then we gave up to get him. Remember just last year the Tigers got Polanco for Urbina and that was only to pop him into middle relief. The team that trades for Baez will be desperate for a closer. Think Atlanta.
Show/Hide Comments 101-150
2006-02-28 19:22:57
101.   Sam DC
99 Everyone here wants to believe that the choice is between him, the guy whose spot he is trying to get, and Alfonso Soriano. Most people vote for Alf.
2006-02-28 19:23:37
102.   ToyCannon
93
OMG was I way off. I should have known it was a National player since Sam posted the URL. Clayton has always thought more of himself then anyone in baseball but he does keep getting starting gigs which is about as weird as Nefi Perez and the Cubs.
2006-02-28 19:28:55
103.   Sam DC
I mean, I don't blame him the attitude in general or the basics of the statement. It's just hauling out Roger Clemens that seems a little dicey to me.
2006-02-28 19:31:27
104.   bhsportsguy
91 - The Dodgers have not had their tradition in nearly 20 years due to not bad but horrible drafts, good players who never were able to perform in L.A. (Daryl), bad personnel moves (nuff said), and ownership changes.

While they had their Rookie of the Year run in the 1990's, let's not forget that none of them were highly thought of when they were drafted, Karros, Piazza and Hollandsworth, Raul was identified pretty early but he was a signed as free agent from the Dominican, and Nomo was from Japan.

Then the new sheriff came and went, Evans came and went, DePo came and went. Now Neddy, who because someone (I guess Evans) brought Logan White on board, and he was able to convince them to sometimes pay money to picks, (LaRoche got a big bonus to sign while drafted in the 38th round), he now has the system packed and ready to go.

The Dodgers are fortunate to have nearly 50 years here and some links to past success (Vin and Tommy) around to keep their fans around but I won't be real happy until I see big Chad pitching and some of the guys from Jacksonville and Vegas standing behind him and catching him.

2006-02-28 19:33:48
105.   GoBears
100 I dunno about Baez. While I think that trading him or Gagne if both prove healthy and effective would the smart thing to do, I don't see it happening. My bet is that Colletti wants both. And with Little's bullpen follies, it might not be as dumb as it would be otherwise.
2006-02-28 19:33:50
106.   Andrew Shimmin
101- That makes sense. Although, I don't envy Nat fans getting to watch Soriano at SS. That'd have to be brutal.
2006-02-28 19:35:04
107.   natepurcell
is there a big difference between the 80 dollar mlb.tv package and the 100 dollar mlb.tv package?
2006-02-28 19:39:54
108.   Steve
Wait a minute. Nationals fans...want Soriano...to play...shortstop?
2006-02-28 19:42:18
109.   Bob Timmermann
Shortstop is just like second base isn't it?
2006-02-28 19:42:45
110.   Icaros
108

Soriano or Izturis at SS? You make the call.

2006-02-28 19:44:08
111.   Icaros
109

If they played under a giant mirror, wouldn't shortstop be second base?

2006-02-28 19:46:01
112.   Steve
Wait a minute. Nationals fans...want Soriano...
2006-02-28 19:48:58
113.   Bob Timmermann
I hope Robinson bats Soriano leadoff because the ideal leadoff man should be able to draw 100 walks and score 100 runs.

And have SWAGGER!

2006-02-28 19:51:24
114.   Sam DC
Having started this rumor, methinks it's mostly talk radio chatter. It starts with someone saying, "you know, Soriano played shortstop coming up; the Yankees moved him over because of Jeter."

I'd say the truest generalization is that Nationals fans want Brad Wilkerson (and the people they think of as "those other guys") back and want Soriano to go away.

2006-02-28 19:59:10
115.   D4P
94
Just wait, D4P, until you get your first academic gig, and have to teach a 400-student class with 10-12 unionized teaching assistants, some of whom are older than you.

Maybe I'm lucky. The classes in my field are quite small (35 max), and the TAs are almost invariably masters students. But I agree with your larger point.

2006-02-28 20:01:45
116.   Steve
Brian Schneider only swaggers on defense.
2006-02-28 20:20:16
117.   Aug C
Check out this gem from our new skipper in another Gurnick article from Dodgers.com

>

Apparently, taking on 3-0 is an "Oakland thing." That's not so endearing to me, personally.

2006-02-28 20:22:34
118.   Aug C
Oops, here's the excerpt from the article:

Little said he gave Ethier the hit sign on a 3-0 pitch, but the lefty took a strike.

"I was a little scared he was into that Oakland thing," Little said, referring to Oakland's emphasis on patience and on-base percentage. "We swing here on 3-0."

2006-02-28 20:22:51
119.   natepurcell
im watching quite frankly and omar is on it.

he has a thick new york accent. i didnt know that.

2006-02-28 20:28:16
120.   oldbear
That Grady Little quote and the subsequent Andre Ethier reply is about as bad as it gets.

If I was Joel Guzman,I'd be happy tho. Apparently plate discipline is no longer a pre-requisite for making the roster.

Hack. Hack. Hack. Hack.

Good Times in 2006.

2006-02-28 20:31:51
121.   Vishal
haha, i would LOVE to see soriano at short. that would be pure comedy in motion.
2006-02-28 20:35:09
122.   oldbear
Colletti and Little would like the Cubs roster more than ours.
2006-02-28 20:43:36
123.   willhite
77 -

Icaros, you said you'd hire a licensed psychologist.

Ned and Grady may have been listening to you. He's probably not licensed but our new bench coach Jauss has a Bachelor's degree in psychology from Amherst College and a Master's degree in sports management from the University of Massachusetts-Amherst.

2006-02-28 20:45:44
124.   Icaros
123

Great. Now Little can scram.

2006-02-28 20:52:26
125.   oldbear
88. If Eric Gagne is the true GM of the Dodgers, I hope he has better luck than Kobe Bryant's GM run with the Lakers.
2006-02-28 20:55:11
126.   oldbear
92. Exactly Steve. Teams wont change their direction unless they start losing money. Most sports franchises measure success by their profit margin, not their winning percentage.
2006-02-28 21:01:16
127.   D4P
Most sports franchises measure success by their profit margin, not their winning percentage.

Once again, capitalism rears its ugly head and "we the people" are the losers.

2006-02-28 21:01:30
128.   Steve
Mostly they just suffer from an appalling lack of imagination.
2006-02-28 21:04:18
129.   regfairfield
125 What were his demands again? I remember the first was a .310 hitter (which, technically, we fufilled with Lofton). What was the other one?
2006-02-28 21:05:33
130.   natepurcell
40 homerun hitter and re-sign weaver
2006-02-28 21:11:36
131.   regfairfield
Oooh, he's not gonna be happy.
2006-02-28 21:12:04
132.   Icaros
125

Eric Gagne is not even in the same universe as Kobe Bryant in terms of value to his team, even when O'Neal was still around.

2006-02-28 21:14:51
133.   Steve
It's like if Kevin Malone had a vulcan change.
2006-02-28 21:15:10
134.   oldbear
If you root for the Yankees, then you're a winner.

If you root for the Pirates, you should be thankful you have a team despite being undeserving.

I think the best thing baseball could do is contract 2-4 teams, which then in turn would increase the overall quality of the game.

I've always felt Anti-Trust has severely limited Baseball's ability to govern itself. That, and I believe anti-trust is anti-capitalism.

Also, do away with the MLB draft and just let teams sign which ever players they feel should be signed. Age limits are bogus. Etc. Etc...Unions are bogus... Etc Etc..

If only Larry Kudlow was the commish of baseball.......

2006-02-28 21:16:40
135.   capdodger
93 109
Everything I've seen seems to have Sam's Player X fighting Cristan Guzman for short. AFAIK, the Nat's are still trying to move Soriano to the outfield.
2006-02-28 21:36:40
136.   Sam DC
135 Spring Training might get better ratings if they did just fight. Although having shed the Predator thing, Clayton has given up a key advantage.

Of course, Guzman looks a lot like an Ewok at the plate, so it doesn't really take a Predator, I suppose.

2006-02-28 21:39:48
137.   LAT
51. Steve, as to 39 I can only quote Reverand Johnson's immortal words to Sheriff Bart, "Son, your on your own."
2006-02-28 21:40:12
138.   Bob Timmermann
I have found Casey. Man was he hidden away. Now I know where to hide the Hope Diamond after I steal it.
2006-02-28 21:41:37
139.   LAT
Actually, it was the link at 39 that sent me over the edge.
2006-02-28 21:47:12
140.   Andrew Shimmin
139- It was the third time he's linked that.

Not exactly related: remember that guy who kept trying to get us to call Odalis Perez, Peanut? That was pretty awesome.

2006-02-28 21:49:41
141.   D4P
138
Now I know where to hide the Hope Diamond after I steal it.

What good will it do you if you keep it hidden? For that matter, what good do diamonds ever do?

2006-02-28 21:56:11
142.   Bob Timmermann
I will hide the Hope Diamond until I can sell it on eBay.
2006-02-28 21:56:18
143.   Steve
One for every beloved TV celebrity its killed over the last two days.
2006-02-28 21:58:04
144.   D4P
143
Use the numbers, Steve. The numbers are your friend.
2006-02-28 22:03:35
145.   D4P
From Entertainment News:

Hmm, maybe the fat lady should shut her mouth and take a seat. The New York Post hears brand-new buzz that Showtime has not only picked up Fox's canceled Arrested Development but has ordered a full 26 episodes.

2006-02-28 22:08:47
146.   Steve
I know that the whole 3-0 thing came up, and kind of ruined the moment, but "Project Ethier" (aka GROTheR or Get Repko Off The Roster) got off to a rousing start.
2006-02-28 22:12:43
147.   D4P
But project KROTheR fared well in the eyes of someone whose opinion actually counts...

Also drawing praise from the manager (was)...Jason Repko, who stole extra bases from Young by sprinting to dead center and hauling in his long drive.

"We were excited with the way...Repko caught it," he said. "It was good all the way around."

2006-02-28 22:15:50
148.   King of the Hobos
South Korea's first baseman hit a homer in an exhibition game against the Chiba Lotte Marines. Unfortunately it was the former Marine Seung-yuop Lee. I'm guessing either he or Choi will DH, especially since they're probably Korea's best hitters. Anyone know?
2006-02-28 22:16:51
149.   Steve
Boot Repko Off The Roster

BROTheR

All in favor. The vote is unanimous.

Not a huge surprise that the highlight of an 8-3 loss would be what was no doubt another terrible Repko jump. That was the highlight of all of last year's 8-3 losses to real major league teams.

2006-02-28 22:19:00
150.   das411
Remember that time Nate showed up drunk and the only person who noticed was Steve?
Show/Hide Comments 151-200
2006-02-28 22:19:42
151.   Steve
Appropriate uses the term would be something like "Oh BROTheR, do we need a new centerfielder" or "Oh BROTheR, why is he running to left center when the ball in in right center." We are saving pixels and having fun at the same time. Greenpeace would approve.
2006-02-28 22:23:41
152.   D4P
Now seems like a good time to propose that we (as I have already been doing) refer to "Grady Little" as "Grittle," for no fewer than the following three reasons:

1. Grittle is shorter
2. Grady looks like someone who might go by the name of Grittle
3. Grittle sounds like Griddle

2006-02-28 22:24:47
153.   King of the Hobos
I'm guessing the Dodgers played the intrasquad game with a DH. Unless they learned how to fit Nomar, Mueller, and Saenz onto the field at one time. And Ethier batted 3rd while Laroche batted 8th, somehow I don't see that happening in Vegas this year
2006-02-28 22:31:06
154.   Bob Timmermann
148

You are pretty much correct about Lee and Choi being Korea's biggest two power threats.

Jong-Beom Lee is supposed to be pretty good.

2006-02-28 23:00:30
155.   LAT
Jong-Beom Lee should change his name to "Long Boom Lee." That would catch on and give him some exposure.
2006-02-28 23:01:52
156.   LAT
He could come to the US play baseball and if it didn't work out he could be the next Dirk Diggler.
2006-02-28 23:04:18
157.   thinkingblue
46.

Yes, but you have to admit, based on last years numbers, Lofton would appear more productive than Cruz. And if you would argue that Lofton was a product of the Philadelphia ballpark, you would be wrong.

He hit .310 in Phili, and .367 on the road.

Lofton getting on, and Guzman driving him in sounds a lot better than Cruz and Guzman.

2006-02-28 23:06:38
158.   thinkingblue
120.

No matter how you slice it, this is a better team in every way than the 2005 disaster.

Especially on offense, this is a big improvement.

2006-02-28 23:08:59
159.   thinkingblue
131.

Gagne was beyond happy with this dodger offseason. He likes the direction of the team, he said so.

2006-02-28 23:10:24
160.   thinkingblue
122.

Well, in 2005, Depo would take the A's roster over the White Sox for sure according to your reasoning.

2006-02-28 23:18:45
161.   natepurcell
a homerun for TB!
2006-02-28 23:31:57
162.   Andrew Shimmin
161- He's an RBI machine.
2006-02-28 23:38:48
163.   natepurcell
but hows his BA with RISP?
2006-02-28 23:39:21
164.   Andrew Shimmin
Have you been following the Greinke Chronicles, Nate? Any theories on what happened?
2006-02-28 23:39:43
165.   natepurcell
and pretty soon he will reach this plateau

http://tinyurl.com/h9gbr

2006-02-28 23:42:00
166.   natepurcell
from what ive gathered and read...

grienke is a wierd kid. grienke also has a lot of self pride and since hes been labled the royals savior the past 3 years, he doesnt take failure or criticism too well.

buddy bell, the royals manager had a closed door meeting with greinke this weekend where he told him that greinke will start the year in AAA and not in the royals staring rotation. apparently, greinke left because of that.

2006-03-01 01:03:07
167.   bhsportsguy
Okay, maybe Jon will start another thread but before the spring training games begin, predict tne Dodgers final 25 man roster on April 3rd.

I am going against the trend and I am picking both lefties to be on the club and Houlton to go to Vegas to start with possibly the best bullpen in Dodger AAA history.

Kelly Wunsch
Tim Hamulack

Alomar will be the b/u catcher
Saenz, Robles b/u infielders
Ledee will be one outfielder.

Which leaves Choi, Repko, Aybar and maybe Ramon Martinez for two spots. Saenz and Ledee are going to be the top righty/lefty pinch hitters and if Ledee plays, Cruz can switch.

Logic tells me that Repko has to be there because they need 5 outfielders and none of the prospects will be there because they want them to play not sit.

So then we are at the last spot, Choi, Aybar or Ramon Martinez. I hate to say it but if Choi is going to play, they really should try to find someone who will give him shot because it doesn't make sense to have him as a second left handed pinch hitter. I like Aybar in this spot because he can back up the rest of IF positions.

Unless Nomar gets hurt this spring, the Dodgers are probably hoping HSC hits a lot of homers and someone calls. I just don't see a spot for him. Blame Tracy for not playing him last year and playing guys like Phillips, et. al. but I think HSC will not be in a Dodger uniform when he comes back from the WBC.

2006-03-01 01:33:49
168.   oldbear
Robles,Martinez, Repko and Aybar cant all make the team, can they?

Scraptacular bench.

2006-03-01 01:36:00
169.   oldbear
159. Gagne was happy last off season too. In fact, he spouted off to the press about just hwo happy he was with the additions.

Later, these quotes made Gagne look like a total moron when he went back on those words, and started ripping management.

I lost mucho respect for Eric after those comments.

2006-03-01 02:09:46
170.   thinkblue0
157-

you can't base Lofton on last year's numbers because last year's numbers don't follow the trend. He had three or four extremely average years before that. If anything, Lofton is going to slide rather than improve...and I HIGHLY doubt he repeats his numbers from last year.

2006-03-01 07:06:34
171.   Sam DC
Mr. Tony Watch

Today, I heard some of Mr. Tony's radio show coming in to work. Two comments:

1. The show is sponsered by a lobbying firm called -- honest -- Hyjek & Fix. Somehow, I thought they weren't quite supposed to describe the work exactly like that, but what can you do.

2. Mr. Tony had Dave Sheinin, who is covering Nationals Spring Training, on (a not that you care note -- Sheinin is a national bb writer, not the Nationals' Beat Writer, but that guy couldn't make it to campe b/c he was coverying Olympic hockey). Anyhow, first question, "So, isn't Jim Bowden a complete boob?" Kornheiser went on to rip Bowden for being a "self-aggrandazing" "fool." Sheinin -- no Bowden lover himself -- tried to defend a little by pointing out that at least the Lawrence deal seemed a like a good one, because the team got something for an overpaid broken down third baseman they didn't need and who they were basically ready to dump for nothing, and Kornheiser somewhat deftly pointed out that the contract they were so desperate to bump was given out just last year by Jim Bowden.

Then I got to work. Good stuff to start the day. Kornheiser's bit gets repetitive and old pretty fast, but I think he's a smart and observant guy.

2006-03-01 07:30:05
172.   the count
166
Greinke seems immature. He comes off as extremely cocky to me. He admits that while he is pitching, he just messes around with hitters or tries new things out because he gets bored.

Living in KC I get to hear his interviews sometimes and he just comes off wrong to me. He has been highly successful at each stop in his career so this kind of news is not taken easily.

2006-03-01 08:22:51
173.   Marty
156 But would he be as toolsy as Dirk Diggler?
2006-03-01 08:36:21
174.   Vishal
[173] that pun physically hurt me, marty.
2006-03-01 09:08:32
175.   ToyCannon
158
I've got some time to kill. I'll use the starting lineup the 2005 team was supposed to have.

1st- Nomar versus Choi/Saenz - Nomar has had 321 and 230 at bats the last two years. He hit 283/320/450 with 9 home runs. The Choi/Saenz combo hit 30 home runs with about a 250/330/465 line. As Jon has pointed out numerous times the combo of Choi/Saenz was very effective in 2005. Saenz didn't do anything he hasn't done before except get more at bats which helped his counting stats. Other then 2001 he has slugged over 460 every year of his career. Nomar will have to dig back to 2003 and stay healthy to be an upgrade.

2nd Base - Kent, no change but Kent is one year older at a position where players don't age well.

SS - Furcal is a huge upgrade over Izzy

3b - Mueller over Jose Valentin - On the surface a solid upgrade but Mueller is now at the same age that Valentin crashed and burned and it would not surprise me to see Mueller not be able to play 50 productive games. He's always had chronic knees and they don't get better as you get older. This won't bother me one bit since by August LaRoche would be a better option anyway and Aybar might even be a better option right now.

C - Navarro over J Philips - Yes, another solid upgrade. Maybe even a huge upgrade because Navarro can get on base and actually score when Furcal gets a hit after he was bunted to 2nd base by Lowe.

RF - Drew versus Drew -

CF - Lofton versus Milton - Not a big fan of Milton but he does win the battle. No question that Lofton had an excellent year in 2005 but I don't think to many people will choose a 39 year old CF whose game is speed over a 28 year old CF with power and speed. If Werth can come back and take some LHP at bats and put up his 2004 line then this could be a wash but I think Werth is done as a Dodger after his latest string of constant injuries. CF will be the 2006 weakest link unless they move Drew to CF and move Lofton to the 4th outfielder role. Since he is not much of a team player based on his previous whining in NY when asked to be such a player this will probably not happen.

LF - Cruz versus Werth - I guess I'm the only Cruz fan here but I'll take Cruz even over the 2004 Werth. Neither are special and if Guzman can take the job so much the better.

Yes, I'd have to agree that the 2006 offense looks better then the 2005 offense at the same point of the season. Still think the team would be better with Nomar in LF and Drew in CF with Lofton a 4th outfielder and Choi/Saenz manning 1st. What I like most about the 2006 season is that unlike 2005 we have answers for injuries. Anyone of D Young, Guzman, Ethier would be better then Ross, Feng, Repko. Aybar has already proven he can play a decent 3b with solid OB skills. Robles can handle SS for a few games at a time. Martin can step in if Navarro goes down. If Nomar can hit like 2003 and Drew/Kent/Furcal stay healthy this can be a very good offensive team but I can't imagine Nomar all of the sudden being able to be both healthy and good at the same time anymore. I also have zero faith that JD Drew will stay healthy enough to be the big hitter we need. 3 more surgeries makes me nervous especially the shoulder one and since he was unable to do a winter workout since he was rehabbing from all the surgeries, a slow start like 2005 is probably on the horizon. Which is to bad because I'd rather see him have his 2004 season and then exercise his option and take himself elsewhere.

Of course without the greenies who knows what any of these players are actually capable of during a full season. To me that will be the big story of 2006 and I wish Bouton was around to give us the inside look at how the players handle having to deal with work without any external pick me ups. I guess coffee and red bull will be ingested in large quantities.

2006-03-01 09:50:32
176.   ToyCannon
Interesting article in the Daily news about how the Dodgers will be using the Blue Man Group to promote the team this season. Not only will they be in the televised ad's but they will also be part of the stadium experience on the video board.

Also liked the Times article on the game yesterday.

2006-03-01 10:05:27
177.   regfairfield
Well, the Blue Man Group by themselves is 10 kinds of awesome.

Not sure how well they'll mesh with the stadium atmosphere. If we can't have organ music, the Blue Man Group is definately preferable to whatever they're pumping into the stadium.

2006-03-01 10:19:23
178.   Sam DC
The problem with that Henson's Jax article is that it reports Navarro taking a four pitch walk. Someone needs to talk to that kid quick.
2006-03-01 10:19:30
179.   LAT
175. Nice analysis, ToyCannon. I think you are spot on in most of your conclusions. The only place I tend to disagree is re Nomar. I have no basis for this and its more hope than anything else, but I am expecting a good/healty season. He will be the Jeff Kent signing of 2006. Unfortuanlatly, I think you are very right about Drew. I can't imagine that after multiple surgeries he will be better. As evidenced by Shawn Green, a bum shoulder can really rob you of your power.

A question about the Choi/Sanez 30 HRs: Does that number exclude HRs hit by Olmado while playing third?

2006-03-01 10:21:10
180.   Bob Timmermann
I was feeling depressed earlier in the week so I signed up to join the Blue Man group.
2006-03-01 10:22:08
181.   regfairfield
179 The actual number is 26. Dodger first basemen hit 30 (three from Phillips, one from Kent.)
2006-03-01 10:22:34
182.   D4P
180
Was Tobias there?
2006-03-01 10:39:44
183.   Bob Timmermann
So who's going to announce the spring training games on radio? There's a press release out stating that Steiner and Lyons will be calling the WBC for XM radio and Jamie Jarrin will also be working for XM as well.
2006-03-01 11:22:30
184.   Curtis Lowe
140- Should I be ashamed that I've referred to Odalis Perez as Peanut a few times.
2006-03-01 11:35:30
185.   Sam DC
I should be ashamed that I remember that fellow's screen name (kind of like gnuvisage).
2006-03-01 11:54:14
186.   ToyCannon
179
I hope your right. Once upon a time he was my favorite player when he could actually play SS with any skill. I do however hate his ritual and I'm very surprised that Major League pitchers just don't plug him every so often because it is so annoying. I am rooting for him to succeed and for Choi to get traded to the Twins where he can help them forget about Big Papi.
2006-03-01 11:57:55
187.   Johnson
179,181 What I think you're failing to point out here is that last year Dodgers first basemen, while not epileptic-friendly, hit

ThIrTy bOmBs!.!

and therefore...well, I had some sort of point there, but I don't know what it was.

2006-03-01 12:02:52
188.   Johnson
On another topic, I got an e-mail from MLB.com regarding GameDay Audio - telling me they're going to be automatically charging my credit card for this year. I would have bought it again anyway, but was there something when I signed up saying that this would be a recurring annual fee? What if I changed e-mail address and didn't want it anymore? How would I know to cancel it?

Did anybody else get this/feel that it's a bit excessive assumption that I'd be back? I'm considering contacting them over it.

2006-03-01 12:05:03
189.   Curtis Lowe
188- It was in the fine print,

Always read the fine print.

2006-03-01 12:05:17
190.   gcrl
186
i think the sense here in minnesota is that justin morneau will help ease the pain of cutting ortiz loose. mauer will likely dh one or two times a week, with lew ford or rondell white dh-ing the rest of the time.

but, since we seem to be collecting middle infielders, maybe the twinks will make juan castro available.

2006-03-01 12:05:48
191.   D4P
188
I got the same email and wondered the same things. I too had planned on renewing, and while it's more convenient for them to simply charge my credit card without consulting me first, it's a nevertheless a bit disconcerting. I thought it was strange that there was no language in their email addressing what to do if you don't want to renew.
2006-03-01 12:08:20
192.   regfairfield
I know that they mentioned the automatic renewal somewhere in the mlb.tv signup.
2006-03-01 12:35:32
193.   Bob Timmermann
188

They do tell you it's automatic renewal when you sign up. But most people just skip over it.

For TV, I use Extra Innings on my cable system because I find it easier to look at a TV than my computer screen.

2006-03-01 12:50:37
194.   ToyCannon
190
Yes, but you must be a bit worried about the Morneau injuries. I find him and Choi an interesting case. Justin was a ballyhooed 1st base prospect who has failed to inspire in his 1st two seasons but everyone seems to realize that he will progress and realize his potential. Choi followed the same prospect path but has already been discarded into the failed junkheap. Morneau after 876 major league at bats has a 248/313/461 line hitting in a favorable hitters environment. Choi after 915 at bats has a 240/349/437 line while hitting in 2 pitcher parks and yet Morneau is still the future for the Twins while Choi is splinter material. Neither is stellar with the glove. Go figure
2006-03-01 13:10:50
195.   gcrl
194
morneau had/has at least three things going for him here in minnesota: first, he was replacing dougie mientkiewicz (admittedly a fan fave, but with no offense to speak of) who had worn out his welcome with the manager, and second, he had the support of the local press who pegged him as the power threat the twinks desparately needed. they even dubbed morneau and mauer the "m&m boys". sacrilege. finally, the twins really don't have any other options, so morneau gets to play through his struggles. the twinks did go with their jason phillips wannabe (matt lecroy) at first a few times, but they must have realized that was a failed experiment.

anyway, hsc's hardships in the local press have been well documented, and being asked to replace an icon like mark grace couldn't have been easy.

it seems that terry ryan is not afraid to cut bait with prospects after a year or two (restovich, kielty, and possibly cuddyer), while at the same time he gives extended tryouts to others (morneau, guzman, rivas).

2006-03-01 13:26:36
196.   Brendan
184. Curtis Lowe
140- Should I be ashamed that I've referred to Odalis Perez as Peanut a few times.
Yes, Curtis you should be ashamed and you are officially On Notice.
2006-03-01 13:34:53
197.   Bob Timmermann
Since it's easy to do, from MLB.com:
Tracy may be relentlessly optimistic, but he is also a relentless teacher of the best parts of the game. If you saw where the Los Angeles Dodgers were when he took over as manager in 2001, and where they were when he led them to a National League West championship in 2004, you would easily grasp the positive influence he can have on a ballclub. The fact that the 2004 division-winning roster was dismantled for 2005 by a GM who is no longer on the L.A. scene is not a demerit on Tracy's record.

"Jim Tracy has brought life to this team," said Wilson on Tuesday. "And I'm not saying that just because I want to hit second. This is the first year I have ever seen so much optimism here."

Oh what fools these Pirates be...

2006-03-01 13:37:54
198.   Sam DC
Jack Wilson should hit second for the Pirates. After all, I expect he's a very good bunter.
2006-03-01 13:38:33
199.   Sam DC
Meanwhile, Bob has the top five slots on the sidebar locked up. At what point does it just become showing off?
2006-03-01 13:38:33
200.   Sushirabbit
196- awww.

195- et al. HSC to Oakland when Thomas goes down? What do we get back? Bradley?
(it's a joke).

Ya reckon we can pry an outfielder away from Atlanta for Baez? That strikes me as the best bait LA has at the moment.

Show/Hide Comments 201-250
2006-03-01 13:42:17
201.   Sushirabbit
OT, but I bet the security guy in this story gets fired.

http://tinyurl.com/okgrp

Maybe the kid was making a statement (sort of in the mode of de Bergerac). I hate to hear it, but it gave me a laugh, too.

2006-03-01 13:44:44
202.   natepurcell
okay, my officially new obessesion is miguel cabrera; and it will be until he is traded (hopefully to us).

the marlins dumped beckett because hes making 4 mil or so in arb this year, cabrera's going to make somewhere around that next year... can we say huge trade deadline deal?

who could beat our offer? the angels could, but stoneman is hold'em with his prospects. the dbacks could, but they are pretty cash strapped themselves.

2006-03-01 13:46:42
203.   D4P
197
It was clever of Tracy to convince Beltre to follow up his disappointing 2003 season with an MVP-esque 2004 campaign.
2006-03-01 13:47:36
204.   Curtis Lowe
202- What is "The Offer"? What do they need?
2006-03-01 13:51:50
205.   Curtis Lowe
Watched "Walk the Line" again last night, I enjoyed it more than the first time which is really rare for me.
2006-03-01 13:54:36
206.   Sushirabbit
204- Baez?
Oh BROTHeR, I recommend Heart and Soul, Repko. I can see the twisted "sentences" from Platiskite now.
2006-03-01 13:56:46
207.   jasonungar05
197 and 203

"Jim Tracy has brought life to this team," said BELTRE on Tuesday. "And I'm not saying that just because I want to hit SEVENTH".

2006-03-01 13:58:50
208.   Brendan
Nate the local FOX Sports Net(L.A.) had highlights from the Jax/dodger game yesterday so it had to have been televised somewhere. Most likely whatever fox sports net services Jacksonville area. there has to be a way to view it.
2006-03-01 14:06:02
209.   thinkblue0
202-

I don't see any way they trade Cabrera. If anything, he'll be the one guy they keep.

Although if they DID trade him, our proposal would probably have to start with Guzman and Billingsley....ouch.

2006-03-01 14:12:29
210.   bhsportsguy
Couple of things, Jim Callis of Baseball America, in his weekly espn.com chat said a couple of things Dodger related, first he thinks that this year's team will win the division, Joel Guzman is the most likely prospect to be traded, if Miguel Cabera was to be made available, the two LA teams would be in front of the line to bid for him and he likes Kemp over D. Young as a prospect.

Finally and I think something that will drive this thread for the rest of the afternoon, someone asked Jim Callis the classic choice question, Ginger or Mary Ann and he picked Mary Ann. Without any scientific basis, to me Mary Ann has to win this poll but why. Is the cute girl next door quality, her ability to bake pies on a island, or do we just think that Ginger isn't all what she is cracked up to be?

2006-03-01 14:15:38
211.   Uncle Miltie
I'd offer Guzmn, LaRoche, and Martin. Cabrera is a franchise type player. He's almost on the Albert Pujols level.

As for Greinke, he's a really weird kid. You can listen to an interview with him here
http://tinyurl.com/s7dp7

He kind of sounds like an autistic person. As for Greinke the pitcher, he's special. He has a huge repertoire of pitches and definitely knows how to use them. He's very mature as a pitcher and kind of reminds of Greg Maddux the way he pitches. He's always mixing it up, trying to think along the same lines as the hitter. I'd give up a lot for him too (though I really doubt the Royals are going to trade him).

2006-03-01 14:19:37
212.   overkill94
How can Florida trade away all their major league talent except for Dontrelle and Miguel, and STILL need to cut payroll? Would Dontrelle be the only guy on their roster making more than $1 million at that point? That has to be a prime example for contraction.
2006-03-01 14:25:26
213.   natepurcell
Nate the local FOX Sports Net(L.A.) had highlights from the Jax/dodger game yesterday so it had to have been televised somewhere. Most likely whatever fox sports net services Jacksonville area. there has to be a way to view it

that could be my new mission this weekend.

2006-03-01 14:26:57
214.   Brendan
I chalk the Ginger or Mary Ann debate as analogous to a discussion of girls you would want to date and girls you want to marry.
2006-03-01 14:56:39
215.   Bob Timmermann
I'm down to just four things on the sidebar at this moment.

But I'm off work today and my biggest other tasks today were doing my laundry and taking Casey to the vet.

And finding Casey.

2006-03-01 15:28:48
216.   Marty
Why is Lovie never thrown into the mix during these Ginger or Mary Ann sessions?
2006-03-01 15:33:29
217.   Johnson
215 I think he's just afraid of being burnished. Maybe if you put down the polishing drill, he'll be more receptive.
2006-03-01 15:53:40
218.   thinkblue0
216-

I'm alone at my computer, and you just got an audible laugh out of me. good times.

2006-03-01 16:01:10
219.   LAT
Ginger is too high maintenance. Underneath that mid-west exterior, Mary Ann is a freak.
2006-03-01 16:02:17
220.   Howard Fox
216 because she has funny hair
2006-03-01 16:06:38
221.   gvette
216-- That is so indescribably wrong on sooo many levels.
2006-03-01 16:12:15
222.   kent
216- if you're going to include Lovie, you might as well throw in the Skipper too.
2006-03-01 16:41:12
223.   Marty
222 Then we could call it Brokeback Island
2006-03-01 17:05:25
224.   thinkingblue
Troycannon,

1st- Nomar versus Choi/Saenz - Nomar has had 321 and 230 at bats the last two years. He hit 283/320/450 with 9 home runs. The Choi/Saenz combo hit 30 home runs with about a 250/330/465 line. As Jon has pointed out numerous times the combo of Choi/Saenz was very effective in 2005. Saenz didn't do anything he hasn't done before except get more at bats which helped his counting stats. Other then 2001 he has slugged over 460 every year of his career. Nomar will have to dig back to 2003 and stay healthy to be an upgrade.<<

I am sorry, but if Nomar is a healthy, this is so big of an upgrade, it is not even funny.
By the way, yes, last year was an abberation for Saenz. He had not had so much as 45 RBIS before, and not even so much as 12 HR before.

In Oakland, he had similar at bats in 2001, and only had 9 HR, and 32 RBIs.

Also, there is a difference between Mueller and Jose, first, Mueller has not been on a decline, Jose was a on a decline the previous years. Also, Mueller played 150 games last year, I don't think you should question his health.

2006-03-01 17:07:54
225.   D4P
224
Mueller has not been on a decline

SLG %

2003: .540
2004: .446
2005: .430

2006-03-01 17:09:31
226.   Steve
Curiouser and curiouser.
2006-03-01 17:18:24
227.   bhsportsguy
"I'm a loyal guy. I'm sure it goes both ways. I don't think it will be an issue, unless something stupid happens. There's such a good chemistry, I don't see that. We're grown-ups. We're not against each other. It's true family." - Eric Gagne on Dodgers.com

Let's note this day 3/1/2006, the day Eric Gagne said that money won't be an issue, it will be the old familiar respect card.

2006-03-01 17:19:30
228.   Andrew Shimmin
225- You're missing the point.

Mueller's BARISP

2005: .338
2004: .231
2003: .331

He had a heart deficiency in 2004, but he's still at the top of his game.

2006-03-01 17:19:37
229.   bhsportsguy
I wish just once someone would say be the first one to pay me blank and I will sign the contract.
2006-03-01 17:25:45
230.   dsfan
210

Yep, Sickels followed my lead on Guzman.

He'll be traded next year, I suspect.

2006-03-01 17:27:58
231.   regfairfield
Mueller has missed at least 30 games a season most of his career.

When you get more at bats, counting stats like home runs and RBIs tend to go up.

Garciaparra would have to go back to his year 2000 production for him to be anything better than a 50 point OPS upgrade (and that's basically fantasy by itself.)

2006-03-01 17:29:54
232.   Steve
Think of the middle relievers JtD will bring! Dare to dream -- could we get Gigantor? Al Reyes? Arthur Rhodes? All three!
2006-03-01 17:33:02
233.   Steve
55
128
145
116
153
70
111
146
110
150
2006-03-01 17:33:26
234.   Brent is a Dodger Fan
I am sorry, but if Nomar is a healthy, this is so big of an upgrade, it is not even funny.

And if my grandmother had wheels, she'd be a pushcart.

Nomar has to go back to 2003 performance, his age 29 year, to post a line better Choi/Saenz did last year. That's a risky proposition, taking the easy doubles off the Green Monster away (there goes the SLG), and two years of injury to boot. And he's 32. His BP forecast is to hit .750 OPS. You are too bullish on Nomar, too bearish on Choi/Saenz. At least, that's what the data tells us.

By the way, yes, last year was an abberation for Saenz.

True. His OPS was down to .805.
2001 was the only time Saenz didn't post an OPS over .820 since he made the bigs to stay. True, it was also the only time he got the AB he got last year. But the people around here are suggesting a platoon of Saenz and Choi. Choi would get more AB in the platoon, in facing RH SPs, and thus you won't expect Saenz to get more than 250 PA (since presumably, Aybar will back Mueller at third, not Saenz). Historically, he's put up .838, .915, .822, .857 in years with that level of PA.

and only had 9 HR, and 32 RBIs
RBI: please research why more and more, no one is looking at RBI as a meaningful statistic.

2006-03-01 17:35:25
235.   Steve
14
104
135
109
135
100
145
72

Player 1 Avg. 125
Player 2 Avg. 114

Clearly, one of these men is the Rock of Gibraltar.

2006-03-01 17:36:06
236.   27indigo
224
I am sorry, but if Nomar is a healthy, this is so big of an upgrade, it is not even funny.

When was the last time Nomar was healthy?

Mueller has not been on a decline
Also, Mueller played 150 games last year, I don't think you should question his health.

OPS
2003: .938
2004: .811
2005: .799

Also, Mueller has played in fewer than 120 games in three of the last five seasons.

2006-03-01 17:36:31
237.   thinkingblue
225.

2003 was a carrer year for Bill. And no, he is not an OPS machine. But in terms of batting average, and overall hitting, he has not declined.

2006-03-01 17:39:16
238.   thinkingblue
236.

Mueller ise not an OPS guy.
Also, we are talking about now. And now, Mueller can play 150+ games.
2006-03-01 17:40:32
239.   27indigo
237

In simple terms, what good is batting average? Is the point of the game to have more hits, or is it to score more runs? OPS correlates more closely to run production than does batting average.

As has been pointed out twice now, Mueller is on a decline.

2006-03-01 17:41:05
240.   Steve
Also, we are talking about now.

On Pluto

2006-03-01 17:41:43
241.   Steve
Remember, everyone, we're back in Wonderland again. Unless another beloved TV personality dies, tread lightly.
2006-03-01 17:42:55
242.   Marty
But, I thought OPS was a term for overall hitting.
2006-03-01 17:44:04
243.   27indigo
238

All hitters are "OPS guys." For comparison, Ichiro has had better than an .800 OPS in three of his five MLB seasons.

How do you deduce that Mueller will play 250 games, considering he's done so only twice in the last five years and has averaged 114 in his career?

2006-03-01 17:45:21
244.   Steve
"Deduce" is such a strong term
2006-03-01 17:46:34
245.   thinkingblue
234.

Well, those easy doubles that go away in fenway would be home runs in dodger stadium. The man's carrer OPS is .911. Thats a safer bet than HEE-SEOP SAENZ.

Sabremetrics in LA is DONE. Face it, it did not work. It's not HOW you win ball games, it is winning. You all like to look at individual statistics, but baseball is a team game. It's all about the unit, and this is a good unit.

It's almost as if you would rather have games played on your computer, and won the right way. If a team only won 50 games, but won with THIRTY BOMBS, and BBs, then you are satisfied. But if we win 95 games this year, with bottom of the leauge home run totals, top of the leauge SB totals, defense, and the best bullpen in baseball (that's how the angels won last year), you are questioning it.

2006-03-01 17:46:55
246.   27indigo
Excuse me, make that 150 games, and averaged 125.
2006-03-01 17:48:50
247.   natepurcell
Well, those easy doubles that go away in fenway would be home runs in dodger stadium.

huh?

2006-03-01 17:49:45
248.   27indigo
245

Well, those easy doubles that go away in fenway would be home runs in dodger stadium.

You do realize DS has a park effect that minimizes XBH (a presumed strength for Nomar & Mueller)?

2006-03-01 17:49:54
249.   natepurcell
the angels won last year because of their pitching. pitching wins games. even "moneyball" could "deduce" that.
2006-03-01 17:51:03
250.   natepurcell
this is getting on the verge of ridiculous. someone please stop him. i dont have the inner strength not to debate with him without using language that would be in appropiate for this community.
Show/Hide Comments 251-300
2006-03-01 17:51:28
251.   Steve
Why? He convicts himself.
2006-03-01 17:53:56
252.   thinkingblue
By the way, on dodger.com, another poster made a great point about Bill Mueller:

"Old...I mean BttE has tryed to convince you Bill Mueller shouldn't be here. He says he's declining and yadda yadda yadda.What are his motives? Don't know. Never have. But I will disprove his theories on Bill Mueller on many levels.

Once again, for all who aren't paying attention . . . .

Hypothesis: Bill Mueller is declining, mediocre, and is a bad contract.

Test:
Mueller's career OPS is .798 -- He posted a .799 OPS in '05.
Mueller's career BA is .292 -- He hit .295 in '05.
Mueller's career OBP is .373 -- He recoreded a .369 OBP in '05.
Mueller's career SLG% is .425 -- He posted a .430 SLG % in '05.
Result: Test Failed

Test:
Per full season Mueller has averaged 89 runs / 35 2B / 3 3B / 11 HR / 65 RBI. In '05 Mueller had 69 runs / 34 2B / 3 3B / 10 HR / 62 RBI.
Result: Test Failed

Test:
Removing Mueller's obvious career year of 2003, Mueller has posted OPS' of .797 / .778 / .750 / .721 / .851 / .752 / .811 / .799
Result: Test Failed

Test:
Mueller's numbers before he turned 30 years old: .290 Ave. / .370 OBP / .395 SLG% / .765 OPS
Mueller's numbers since he turned 30 years old: .295 Ave. / .375 OBP / .457 SLG% / .832 OPS
Result: Test Failed

Test:
Mueller's OPS' by season before he turned 30 years old: .810 / .797 / .778 / .750 / .721
Mueller's OPS' by season since he turned 30 years old: .851 / .752 / .938 / .811 / .799
Result: Test Failed

Test:
Mueller ranked #7 out of 20 qualified third basemen in MLB during '05 in OPS; Ahead of Hank Blalock and Eric Chavez.
Result: Test Inconclusive at best

Test:
Among those 20 qualified third basemen and disqualifying Ensberg and Wright who have not even reached arbitration years, and Blalock, Mora, and Inge who are under arbitration contracts, and Hillenbrand that I can not find figures on:
A. Rodriguez....$20.5M
A. Beltre..........$11.75M
T. Glaus..........$11.25M
E. Chavez........$11.0M
A. Ramirez.......$10.5M
M. Lowell...........$8.0M
B. Mueller.........$4.95M
D. Bell..............$4.5M
A. Boone..........$3.75M
V. Castilla........$3.2M
Result: Test Failed

Test's #1, #2, and #3 show Mueller is clearly not declining, WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF HIS CAREER. He is, if anything the model of consistency. Of course if you want to take things out of context and show only the last three years of his 10 year career, one could attempt to argue that Mueller is declining -- however, there would be no statistical relevance to the assertion whatsoever.

Test's #4 and #5 actually show that Mueller has improved over the second half of his career. His batting average, OBP, SLG %, and OPS are all improved since he turned thirty.

Test #6 shows that Mueller ranks in the top third of ML third basemen in terms of offensive production. I think it's a stretch to call him mediocre, but that I'll leave for each to make his/her own judgement call. Question though, you would term Chavez and Blalock as mediocre? That's a mighty looooooong stretch . . . .

Test #7 shows Mueller is clearly a relative bargain at 3B. Minus those like Mora, Blalock, Wright, and Ensberg who would easily command more than Mueller on the FA market were they available, that leaves Inge, Boone, Castilla, and Bell in his neighborhood. Mueller is at the high end of that group salary wise, but seems to me he's at the high end of that group production wise as well. And taken in context of where he falls production wise among third basemen . . . well, there really is no logical or statistical way to say his is a bad contract.

Now, unless I'm missing something, I've looked at Mueller WITHIN THE WHOLE CONTEXT, and have found all your opinions to be false. So have the opinion that you don't like him, his production, and/or his contract, but could you please stop declaring Mueller to be declining, mediocre or the owner of a bad contract. It's simply not true."

2006-03-01 17:55:52
253.   oldbear
Dont feed the trolls.
2006-03-01 17:56:41
254.   thinkingblue
248.

Great, now we have a stat for estimated force of a hit.

What I mean by that, is that a solid line drive that would not go over the green monster, would go over a smaller DS fence.

2006-03-01 17:57:15
255.   Steve
That's a lot of stats for a guy who hates sabermetrics.
2006-03-01 17:57:36
256.   oldbear
I think plagarism requires an immediate banning. I hope Jon Weisman takes care of this problem.
2006-03-01 17:58:55
257.   oldbear
250. Just ignore him. He'll get bored and leave.
2006-03-01 18:00:28
258.   thinkingblue
253.

Ok, so I think differently. But c'mon, what have you got to say to the poster I've quoted. He basicallly killed your theory of Mueller declining. You don't have to be right, you can admit you're wrong once in a while. I've been wrong many times before, and I will admit when I'm wrong.

2006-03-01 18:01:58
259.   Steve
What if I was right all along?
2006-03-01 18:02:05
260.   thinkingblue
256.

I qouted some one, and said so before pasting it. That's not plagirism, I told you it wasn't my doing.

2006-03-01 18:02:45
261.   LAT
Steve you win, have at him.
2006-03-01 18:02:55
262.   Marty
Of course if you want to take things out of context and show only the last three years of his 10 year career, one could attempt to argue that Mueller is declining

Umm, I think that is the definition of declining

2006-03-01 18:03:01
263.   MartinBillingsley31
250

Hey Nate.

this is getting on the verge of ridiculous. someone please stop him. i dont have the inner strength not to debate with him without using language that would be in appropiate for this community.

I allready did that with him on dodgers.com
LOL!!!!!!!

2006-03-01 18:03:03
264.   thinkingblue
Than I will admit I'm wrong.
2006-03-01 18:04:05
265.   Steve
I still want to know what he would say if I was right all along
2006-03-01 18:04:16
266.   Andrew Shimmin
258- If I had something to say to him, I'd go over to dodgers.com and say it. Because that's where he is.

But I do wonder if he's ever heard of a bell curve.

2006-03-01 18:04:47
267.   oldbear
Zzzzzzzzzzz..........
2006-03-01 18:04:51
268.   thinkingblue
Martin, the most impressive thing about your post is your authoritive LOL!!!!!!!
2006-03-01 18:08:19
269.   thinkingblue
267.

I just used your sabr argument against you. Do you have any response to attempt to prove me, and that poster wrong?

2006-03-01 18:08:26
270.   LAT
Quick, someone call Doc Brown, we need the Deloren to take us back to 2002-2003.
2006-03-01 18:09:17
271.   MartinBillingsley31
268

Hey thinkingblue.

I will give you credit for coming here to learn some things, can't say that for the rest of the people on dodgers.com.

But that's IF you came here to learn some things.

2006-03-01 18:13:05
272.   thinkingblue
262.

No, Mueller had one carrer year in 03, was injured in 04, and basically went back to the same old Mueller in 05.

2006-03-01 18:14:19
273.   MartinBillingsley31
Adding to my 271 post.

Most people on dodgers.com just accept the mainstream media's take on things concerning baseball(actually i'd argue most people in general accept the mainstream media take on everything, but that's another subject).

2006-03-01 18:15:27
274.   LAT
OT: I was just cruising the D'Backs website for a little Shawn Green info. Its strange. You can barely tell he is on the team. There are articles and notes about everyone but him. I wonder if they are trying to deal him or waiting till later in the spring to feature him.
2006-03-01 18:15:37
275.   thinkingblue
271.

I would like to know what other baseball fans think yes. However, another reason is that discussions happen faster here, it has been a bit slow at dodgers.com.

2006-03-01 18:15:38
276.   thinkingblue
271.

I would like to know what other baseball fans think yes. However, another reason is that discussions happen faster here, it has been a bit slow at dodgers.com.

2006-03-01 18:16:23
277.   Steve
This was my post upon Bill Mueller's signing:

3 for 3. Grady could Tracy this one up in '07, but as of now, it's not bad.

This community is a many and varied community that does not like to be pigeonholed by various lazy thinkers whose only rhetorical strategy is to construct strawmen. There were a lot of people here who felt one way or another about Mueller's signing, just as they felt one way or another about Furcal, Garciaparra, Lofton and down the line. In my own case, I came from believing that Colletti was the second coming of the devil himself to being extremely pleased that he had signed usable players to short-term contracts, and spared the minor leagues (the horrible Baez trade notwithstanding). Such gives us contending ability in the short-term, and hopefully, the opportunity to build a long-term Braves, A's, Twins-like successful system.

You will find that when it comes down to it, you are making a category mistake. People are not making judgments about your points based on whether they are right or wrong -- the problem is that they are sloppily made, painted with an embarrassingly broad brush, and made in the context of a winner-take-all death match with sabermetrics that exists only in your own mind. You just did it again.

Now, take what you learned from the person who made that Mueller post (it's telling that you had to take it from another source), and try to reason like that. If you stick with us, you may find your understanding of baseball richer for being able to apply concepts you are unfamiliar with to the worldview you advocate. That is certainly what happened to me; I am nobody's idea of any kind of stathead.

And you will be more successful here than you have heretofore been. I find it doubtful that this will happen, but I've been wrong before.

2006-03-01 18:17:44
278.   MartinBillingsley31
275

Well good.

The majority at dodgers.com seem uninformed, like they just hang out there and there only.
LOL!

2006-03-01 18:17:53
279.   oldbear
270. Dont worry. We're already there I suspect.

#7 Mueller------Loduca
#8 Navarro------Cora
#9 Pitcher------Pitcher
#1 Furcal-------Roberts
#2 Lofton-------Izturis

Scraptacular. Now the 2003 crew managed an 85-77 record bc it had the best pitching ever, and Gagne was 55-55 in save chances. This despite finishing dead last in runs scored.

DePo cleaned up this mess, but I guess our friend here must have forgotten what 2003 was like.

Me thinks 2006 the team wont be so lucky.

2006-03-01 18:21:23
280.   Steve
It's always a bit slow at dodgers.com
2006-03-01 18:22:38
281.   MartinBillingsley31
280

Ouch! LOL!

2006-03-01 18:22:45
282.   thinkingblue
273.

Well, like Chuckpo and billynono have pointed out before, you can also argue that some people here only look at a consticted number of stats.

I don't really think this, but I also don't think that dodgers.com is dumb.

2006-03-01 18:25:29
283.   MartinBillingsley31
I'm being politically correct, uninformed not dumb.
2006-03-01 18:25:56
284.   thinkingblue
The four players on this team are better than on the 03 squad.

All I remember about Depo was 71-91.

2006-03-01 18:26:28
285.   Steve
Oh well, I tried, LAT.
2006-03-01 18:28:09
286.   thinkingblue
adding to 284, the 03 team would have won this division by 3 games. Depo couldn't manage to get us within 10.
2006-03-01 18:30:12
287.   thinkingblue
Also, oldbear, you don't really think this team as bad offensively as the 03 squad do you?
2006-03-01 18:30:13
288.   thinkingblue
Also, oldbear, you don't really think this team as bad offensively as the 03 squad do you?
2006-03-01 18:31:09
289.   thinkingblue
why was my post posted twice?
2006-03-01 18:31:33
290.   SCRocks
uh so anyway....

Anybody wanna kick around some ideas about fantasy baseball drafts?

I have mine in about a month. I have a few thouhgts that i want to try out this year...

I'll throw out my thoughts if you guys want to join in this conversation.

cr

2006-03-01 18:33:23
291.   Telemachos
Good Lord... and the year before, the DePo Dodgers were 93-69. What's your point?
2006-03-01 18:33:32
292.   Andrew Shimmin
289- Indeed.
2006-03-01 18:35:25
293.   oldbear
272. At what point do you consider the age for each player.

Lofton is like 39.
Mueller is 35.

Honestly, thinkingblue sounds like what a Giants fan would sound like, if they were defending that team.

Park effects and age do matter. Its no secret its alot easier to hit in Fenway park, and its alot harder to hit as you get older.

As for winning with pitching, defense, and stolen bases. The defense has been worsened. We've downgraded CF, SS, and 1st base. Those are pretty important defensive positions.
Pitching...the staff reeked last year. Adding Tomko/Seo doesnt change things much.
Stolen bases have little value when it comes to scoring runs.

The Angels led the major leagues in stolen bases and singles last year and BAwRISP. However, they only finished like 11th in total runs scored. Isnt it all about scoring as many runs as possible? If the best offense is a small ball offense (like you say), then shouldnt they've led the league in scoring? They didnt.

2006-03-01 18:35:33
294.   thinkingblue
291.

That was a team mostly built by Dan Evans. And the dodgers faded after trading Lo Duca. I know, it will help us now, but it really put a hole in our line up the second half of the season.

2006-03-01 18:38:25
295.   thinkingblue
The Angels led the major leagues in stolen bases and singles last year and BAwRISP. However, they only finished like 11th in total runs scored. Isnt it all about scoring as many runs as possible? If the best offense is a small ball offense (like you say), then shouldnt they've led the league in scoring? They didnt.<<

No, I said it is all about winning. And the angels won. It's no secret that when you can put pressure on the defense, and get clutch hitting, you win.

Also, we are not downgraded at CF. Lofton is a 4 time gold glove winner. And we are not downgraded at short, Furcal has a stronger arm.

2006-03-01 18:39:32
296.   thinkblue0
286-

see, it's this kind of bias that drives me up the wall. Yeah, the '05 team stunk....let's compare the injuries on the '05 team to the ones on the '03. I'll GUARANTEE that '05 was significantly worse. If you didn't like Depo, fine. But please acknowledge that we had an abnormal amount of injuries. Heck, Jim Tracy was arguably the worst manager in baseball last year in my eyes but even I don't blame him for our record because of the insane amount of injuries.

In fact, I believe we had more "DL Days" than any other team in the majors....

2006-03-01 18:41:53
297.   Andrew Shimmin
293- SS isn't a downgrade, or, if it is, it's no significant. 1B is probably not, either. 3B, and C are likely to be much better. It's possible that (if there were such a thing) a single team definitive defense metric would show the 2006 team worse, but I'd be astounded.
2006-03-01 18:42:25
298.   oldbear
287. The lack of power in both lineups, and the inherent "scrappy" nature of both are distressing.
2006-03-01 18:44:17
299.   thinkingblue
296.

Actually, that team was a bit injured. Shawn Green was playing hurt, and there were a couple significant others.
2006-03-01 18:45:07
300.   Bob Timmermann
Like my cat, I think hiding in the closet is the best approach to this thread.
Show/Hide Comments 301-350
2006-03-01 18:46:35
301.   oldbear
295. "No, I said it is all about winning. And the angels won. It's no secret that when you can put pressure on the defense, and get clutch hitting, you win."

Somewhere Bill Plaschke, John Kruk, and Harold Reynolds are lighting up some stogies by the fire, and saying to themselves..."Yes Sir...."

2006-03-01 18:46:36
302.   Daniel B
298. Right but the 2003 line-up was built around the supposed power of Green, Beltre, McGriff, Brian Jordan, while Izturis, Roberts, and LoDuca were table setters meant to be singles hitters.

This team isnt built around any one ingrediant. Theres spead at the top, decent OBP% top to bottom, a few bigbats in the middle, and a few potential bigbats.

Even you oldbear have to realize that this lineup is much more WELL ROUNDED than the 03 lineup.

2006-03-01 18:47:22
303.   thinkingblue
Power? Drew can hit 30, Kent can hit 30, Nomar can hit 25, Cruz can hit 22, Furcal can hit 15, Mueller can hit 12, Navarro 10, Lofton 5, and so on. But, Furcal has managed to score over 100 runs almost all his carrer, so really, offense shouldn't be a big thing.
2006-03-01 18:49:46
304.   thinkingblue
301.

Actually, that's pretty funny, I'll give you that.

2006-03-01 18:49:58
305.   Sam DC
thinkingblue -- if you are going to quote someone's earlier comment in order to set up your own (like in 295) , it can be helpful to bold the quoted part. You bold something by putting an asterix in front of it and at the end.

you can also link to earlier comments by putting square brackets around the comment number [ 295 ] (but without the spaces before and after the brackets).

2006-03-01 18:51:08
306.   MartinBillingsley31
295

Man drop the labels like gold glove and all star, izturis was both and that says it all.
LOL!!!!!
-------------------------------------------
Individual stats vs team impared stats
obp and slg vs rbi's
k/9 and w/9 vs era

2006-03-01 18:53:02
307.   thinkingblue
302.

Good point Daniel. That's what I like about Ned, he like balance. Not all OPS, and not all putting pressure.

2006-03-01 18:54:48
308.   Daniel B
Its unfair the way some people who try to bring a different mindset are treated on this site. No where on the top does it say that you MUST subscribe to the sabermetric way of thinking and choosing players to post on this site.

Being a long time reader, Im getting the impression that a good majority of you guys seem to think that you're better than other Dodger fans because you believe in certain things and dont believe in others.

Than, when someone comes, sticking up for an alternative method of thinking, its nothing but harsh statements, personal attacks, and lambasting of the intruder.

What good is this site if everyone agrees?

I really dont think Jon intended for this site to be an "us vs. them" type of thing, rather a forum for inteligent discussion by Dodger fans and baseball fans in general.

My personal opinion:
You cant win the just sabermetrics, and you cant win with just heart and charicter. You have to have the right set of players that all do their individual job to the best of their ability. Not every slot in the line up should be filled by the highest OPS available. The great teams have always had a great mix of everything. Spped and OBP at the top, Power and SLG in the middle, and a mix of good average and good power through the bottom.

Seriously, its about winning. And were all here for the same reason. I just think its unfair the way some people are treated here for thinking a different way.

My .02 cents...

2006-03-01 18:55:20
309.   thinkingblue
Labels like all star and gold glove win ball games.
2006-03-01 18:57:47
310.   MartinBillingsley31
309

Labels like all star and gold glove win ball games.

WOW, i give up, there's no hope.

2006-03-01 18:58:48
311.   natepurcell
Labels like all star and gold glove win ball games.

so i guess lance carter is the difference between last place and world series champions.

2006-03-01 18:59:27
312.   Daniel B
No hope of what?

Why must you deem it your own personal mission to make everyone think like you?

A bit socialist, no?

2006-03-01 19:00:30
313.   thinkingblue
308. *

www.home.nethere.com/dodgerblue6/4mlb/post-rating.gif

2006-03-01 19:01:02
314.   thinkingblue
313, I meant 5 stars.
2006-03-01 19:02:06
315.   thinkingblue
Martin, I mean that most teams that win the world series have all stars, and gold glove winners.
2006-03-01 19:02:18
316.   thinkingblue
Martin, I mean that most teams that win the world series have all stars, and gold glove winners.
2006-03-01 19:04:11
317.   D4P
311
so i guess lance carter is the difference between last place and world series champions.

Finally something we all can agree with...in one way or another...

2006-03-01 19:05:19
318.   MartinBillingsley31
312

*No hope of what?

Why must you deem it your own personal mission to make everyone think like you?

A bit socialist, no?*

See that's what i mean about people from dodgers.com, stuck in the mainstream.

All i was doing was giving someone info outside of what the mainstream media shoves down peoples throats, and i'm the one that's socialist, i would think the mainstream media is the one that is socialist.

Anyways, out of respect for jon, i'm outta here.

2006-03-01 19:08:34
319.   Steve
If it's Dan Evans' team, wasn't last year Dan Evans' fault? I just don't understand the criticism when the only barrier to entry is something approaching "logic."
2006-03-01 19:13:29
320.   Steve
Oh BROTheR, not Lance Carter
2006-03-01 19:20:47
321.   Andrew Shimmin
308- Everybody thinks his way of looking at something is the right one. If he didn't, he'd try something else. A difference of opinions is something that ought not to be stifled, even if the oposing opinion seems stupid. Pretending that something means something that it bloody well doesn't is different, and should not be treated as if it weren't.
2006-03-01 19:23:23
322.   Steve
So will JtD hit 50 "bombs" this year, or will he go right to 74?
2006-03-01 19:24:36
323.   Vishal
there's some classic stuff being written here today. forget sabermetrics, winning wins ballgames!

and this one was my favorite line of the day:

"And if my grandmother had wheels, she'd be a pushcart."

brilliant.

2006-03-01 19:31:28
324.   Daniel B
321 - Thats exactly my point. Thinkingblue brought a difference of opinion, and instead of just disagreeing and trying to prove otherwise, a good majority of poster decided to lower themselves to personal attacks and classless jokes.

The difference of opinion is why I read this site. Most of you guys think in a different way than I do, and Im curious and interested about what you have to say.

319 - I think Dan Evans doesnt get criticized for 2005 because it really wasnt Dan Evans team. I mean, the third baseman and half of 1st base and a few starting pitchers were the only Dan Evans acquisitions that made any impact.

But, I also think DE is unfairly praised for the 2004 season. Most of the players Evans acquired had disapointing years. The division was one because guys like Werth, Finley, and Beltre (one of the few Evans men who worked out), not because of Roberts, Green, or Izturis.

2006-03-01 19:33:15
325.   Daniel B
324 - The third baseman last year was Not acquired by Dan Evans. I flubbed that one.
2006-03-01 19:44:19
326.   Brendan
Daniel B 308 is intellectually dishonest.

thinkingblue keeps posting his opinions as facts and when that is pointed out to him he responds with more opinions.

A Great Man once said "You are entitled to your own opinions but not to your own facts."

No one is forcing thinkingblue to continue to post his opinion and I think there is an obligation to refute his "facts" with actual facts.

2006-03-01 19:47:39
327.   Marty
277 Is the best post I've read in awhile.
2006-03-01 19:50:06
328.   Andrew Shimmin
324- Two points. Most of what TB brought didn't rise to the level of argument. It was bald assertion backed, when resisted, by double posted nonsense. And the spasmodic website he cleverly linked to three times.

Second, it's hard to expect any one to dig through garbage in hopes of finding a point. There are differing points of view between virtually any two posters here. Most of those differences are aired out in respectful, intellectually defensible ways. But not all opposition is worth engaging. I'd bet the highest correlation, though, to engaged arguments is a reasonable tone. TB hasn't exhibited any capacity for that. And, since he popped in to town three days ago, he hasn't earned any benefit of the doubt.

I'm not going to endorse every nasty thing said about him (and I'm not proud of the nasty things I've said to him, except the ones in this comment, which I'll stop being proud of at some future point). But it doesn't seem as though he's been unfairly picked on.

2006-03-01 19:54:51
329.   Steve
The rhetoric has reached the level it has deserved to reach.
2006-03-01 19:55:28
330.   Andrew Shimmin
All that said, the rules are no picking on commenters, fairly or not; so, there you go.
2006-03-01 19:57:17
331.   Daniel B
I dont mind picking on someone because of the ways they try to prove their point if its an an argumentative and arrogant way.

Its picking on someone for the Point they're trying to prove, or for even trying to prove the point in the first place, that I disagree with.

Thats my beef. My only mistake was being too general at who I directed my "rant" at. Its only the few posters who decided to make a running joke of TB beliefs who Im angry at.

2006-03-01 19:59:45
332.   Brendan
331

Ok I can understand that then.

2006-03-01 20:02:19
333.   Andrew Shimmin
331- I understand. But I'm one of them. Mueller's BARISP by year didn't get posted by itself. 8^)

I have a problem with an explanation of anything that looks like magic. Where there's a mechanism, some attempt even, to show the path from A to B, I'm willing to listen. Where no attempt is made to draw the line, it's almost always because there isn't any line.

2006-03-01 20:17:19
334.   Steve
What beliefs are those?
2006-03-01 20:29:56
335.   dzzrtRatt
327, 277
Amen.

There is simply no option other than to back up assertions with regard to projecting baseball performance other than statistics. The interesting, educational debates on this site -- which are many and sometimes heated -- involve the relative merits of which stats matter in making such projections. Anyone who complains that "statheads" are thwarting his arguments is simply admitted he doesn't have any facts to support what is a purely emotional reaction.

To make up an extreme example, let's imagine there's a player named Zed who got a hit in only one game all season, but it happened to be the one game you attended. Zed's hit was a glorious, orgasmic hit that won the game, and and your 11-year old son caught it to boot and the thrill of the experience cured his lifelong blindness. Let's say Zed was a nice guy, too. Owned 50 kitties. And signed your son's ball.

You still would not be able to argue that Zed is a great player based on "I saw him do something great," if in fact his OPS was .100. But a lot of people try, including many highly respected baseball pundits who fill the airwaves with misleading analysis and never are accountable for it when their forecasts fail to pan out.

Yeah, baseball is a team game, and human factors do matter somewhat, but history is filled with examples of teams whose members disliked each other, and whose manager was a drunken dolt, but because of the combined skills of the players-- measured statistically-- the team still finished first. The A's and Yankees of the 1970s are two good examples of what I'm talking about. The talent level was so high, it didn't matter that the players were all a-holes, nor did it really even matter that they were mismanaged.

2006-03-01 20:33:21
336.   dzzrtRatt
Sorry for the garbled syntax in 335. This is why I like actual blogging. I can fix my mistakes even after I've posted.
2006-03-01 20:37:36
337.   Marty
Aww Ratt, you didn't like Billy Martin's managerial style?
2006-03-01 20:39:06
338.   Steve
BZOTheR
2006-03-01 20:39:18
339.   Marty
Billy Martin. One of the few people you could safely predict would end up in a ditch.
2006-03-01 20:42:17
340.   oldbear
308. Not every slot in the line up should be filled by the highest OPS available.

Disagree. Give me 9 Albert Pujols. Or 9 A-Rod's. Accepting anything less than the highest OPS is settling for someone that simply cant create as many runs as the other guy.

The 'balance' argument is basically a way to justify (without statistical date to back it up), a reason for the Loftons, Repkos and Izturis' to be in the lineup. It makes no logical sense.

My idea of a 'balanced' lineup entails no holes. Meaning every player OPS's a certain amount.

2006-03-01 20:42:56
341.   D4P
338
Z...?
2006-03-01 20:45:17
342.   Steve
Zed's dead, man. Zed's dead.

340+ posts, and nobody has stood up for Ramon Martinez II.

2006-03-01 20:46:40
343.   Andrew Shimmin
340- That sort of thinking, though, could lead to situations like, say, Alfonso Soriano playing SS. There are other considerations. Just not all other considerations are valid.
2006-03-01 20:46:41
344.   regfairfield
He can play four positions. Which is exactly three more than Hee Seop can play. 4>1, it's a stat.
2006-03-01 20:50:18
345.   FirstMohican
That's what I like about Ned, he like balance. Not all OPS, and not all putting pressure.

(Deep breath...)

A balance of guys with and without OPS is a balance of guys with and without offensive ability.

Can someone come up with a way to quantify posting ability?

2006-03-01 20:55:34
346.   Steve
You need some guys to make the outs, otherwise no one would ever get to go home.
2006-03-01 20:58:13
347.   dzzrtRatt
346 That's a very good point. Also, they might run out of beer.
2006-03-01 21:00:08
348.   LAT
Leave for the gym and you miss all the action.

[ 285 ]. Steve, you sure did. [ 277 ] is as well written a post as I've ever seen at DT. As I said once before, I hope K&E is not wasting your talents in the transactional department or on some endless document production. You should be writing MSJ or appellate briefs.

Ratt, tell the truth, is Zed supposed to be Shawn Green and the 11 year old kid, my daughter. ;-)

Daniel, I am no stat head. Baseball for me is a fun thing and I don't want to get too scientific. That being said, among other things, I come here to learn about other approaches to the game, including stats. I take a little from one person and a little from another and my mix is constantly changing depending on my mood. For example, I know all the short-comings of Shawn Green but he is still one of my favorite players and others here tolerate my baised arguments even though they are full of holes. There is a lot of tolerance here, but lets be fair, TB is as entrenched and unyielding in his views as those you accuse here.

2006-03-01 21:01:11
349.   thinkblue0
345-

I hear ya.

When I read that I slammed my head against my desk. I think the neighbors heard it.

2006-03-01 21:07:12
350.   overkill94
Alright, I think the newbie has polarized us a bit too much. There is something to be said about the construction of a line-up. Do we really care if our lead-off hitter has a high OPS as long as he has a high OBP? Similarly, shouldn't a number 5 hitter be judged more by his slugging than overall OPS?

It's fine and dandy to say that line-up order doesn't matter, but you have to admit that at the top spot in the order, there aren't many chances of knocking people in, and by having good hitters behind you, all you need is to get on base.

Show/Hide Comments 351-400
2006-03-01 21:10:50
351.   regfairfield
If I had to choose between Rickey Henderson in his prime and Pujols clone #7 to lead off, I'm going with Pujols.
2006-03-01 21:11:14
352.   oldbear
308. Opinions arent 'stifled' here. Nate and myself have fine debates on the merits of drafting, scouting, etc...He even asked me why I prefer a 'safe' drafting method, and a more risk/reward method to constructing the 25 man roster. Perfectly reasonable debate.

Thinkingblue on the other hand, has had sweeping generalatizations backed not by statistical evidence, but by theory.

Theories such as..
Choi has a hole in his swing
It's no secret that when you can put pressure on the defense, and get clutch hitting, you win.
Labels like all star and gold glove win ball games.
And the dodgers faded after trading Lo Duca.
am sorry, but if Nomar is a healthy, this is so big of an upgrade, it is not even funny.
*Mueller ise not an OPS guy.
Also, we are talking about now. And now, Mueller can play 150+ games.*

If you cannot quantify an argument, then said argument should be deemed pure conjecture, and treated appropriately.

2006-03-01 21:15:26
353.   FirstMohican
Paraphrasing here...

"...and another thing... the book can also be used as... a hat."

2006-03-01 21:15:29
354.   oldbear
352. generalatizations

Ouch. I'm putting a patent on this word. Webster's owes me the residuals.

2006-03-01 21:21:51
355.   FirstMohican
Really though, what generalatizations aren't sweeping? Shouldn't said generalatizations be deemingly treated as conjecturified appropriations quantifically argumentativenesses, generatily?
2006-03-01 21:27:06
356.   oldbear
Whats is the difference between a generalization and a generality?

Perhaps the answer lies in this equation:

generalization + generality= generalatization....

Danica, where art thou?

2006-03-01 21:27:56
357.   Steve
352 -- That should be tweaked. There are holes in swings and they can be "measured," to the extent possible. For instance, BROTheR and Grabowski are the only baseball players I've ever seen with a swing in their hole. But this is a demanding crowd, and they want reasons to believe your assessment. So far we have a not terribly nuanced argument of "thirty bombs," which as far as I can tell by post 303, would be a good thing, if not for the people who hit them.
2006-03-01 21:36:13
358.   Andrew Shimmin
Other people like 277, but 357 is my favorite post of the thread. I vote Steve for MYP.
2006-03-01 21:37:27
359.   D4P
MYP! MYP! MYP!
2006-03-01 21:37:33
360.   regfairfield
357 Got me to examine 303.

If you calculate those home run estimates and add 10 from various other sources, the 134 home runs would leave the Dodgers 23rd in home runs in 2005 (12th in the NL).

As a point of comparision, the Twins, who scored less runs than the Royals, also hit 134 home runs.

2006-03-01 22:01:03
361.   Daniel B
340 - What I'm trying to say (quite poorly, I might add), is that not every player can be judged equally by OPS. You're #4 hitter can have a high OPS, but if his SLG% is low, you're not gonna score a lot of runs. What good do baserunners do if they're all left on base? There have to be some guys who get on base more than they slug, and there have to be some guys who slug more than they get on base. There also have to be some guys who can go from first to third, or score from first on a double.

Look, I agree. There isnt a stat to prove what Im trying to say. You cant measure good baserunning, and sound fundamentals, and good stratagy. But, they still should be taken into account when assembling a TEAM

Sure I'd love to have 9 Albert Pujols, but Im trying to be realistic.

You confuse balance with lack of talent. Im not trying to excuse Repko and Izturis. They arent good. I agree that OPS is a very good tool to measure hitting and run production, but it cant be the only tool used to build a team on.

335 - What's an orgasmic hit like? Id rather not experience one crammed in with a bunch of sweaty men in the reserve level, during a day game in August. Thats just me.

351 - But theres no way the teams Henderson played for during his prime do so well if Pujols is leading off. How many less RBIs do Canseco or Joe Carter have as many RBIs, if Pujols is on first when they double to the gap? Both stratagies have their advantages, and both have their flaws.

2006-03-01 22:04:15
362.   D4P
361
How many times, on average, does a #4 hitter actually hit 4th in an inning? How many times does a #1 hitter actually hit 1st?
2006-03-01 22:16:14
363.   oldbear
23rd in HR's...Interesting.

Take this one step further. For the sake of argument lets assume stolen bases have some type of larger value that all of us fail to acknowledge.

Where are all these steals going to come from? Just speculating on our lineups current age/trends.

Furcal-50 steals at most
Lofton- 20 steals at most maybe?
Drew- is he a threat to run?
Kent- is he a threat to run?
Mueller- is he a threat to run?
Nomar-is he a threat to run?
Cruz- is he a threat to run?
Navarro--is he a threat to run?

How much faster are the Dodgers?
How much better defensively are the Dodgers?
How much better is their pitching?

I dont see big differences in anything from them last year. I do see a substantial drop off in power and patience however.

The 2005 Dodgers had Jose Valentin, Bradley, and Choi/Saenz which they reasonably expected to hit 70HR's collectively.

Lofton, Mueller, and Nomar are going to hit how many? Maybe 35.

I see the expected decrease in power, much more dramatic than the supposed increase in speed. And how much more important is SLG%than Stolen bases?

Have we in fact reached the point of comparing stolen bases and home runs?

329. The rhetoric has reached the level it has deserved to reach.

Indeed.

2006-03-01 22:25:31
364.   D4P
Steve -

Research I conducted based on LAT's inadvertent clue in 348 has uncovered (what I believe to be) a revealing insight into why you rejected my motions to put (1) Jeff Kent and (2) Jeff Hornacek's Annoying Free-throw Cheek Rub, respectively, on the Enemies List.

2006-03-01 22:27:27
365.   oldbear
361. You're #4 hitter can have a high OPS, but if his SLG% is low, you're not gonna score a lot of runs.

I believe the key is to have a standard baseline of OPS. Mine would be ideally .800 for every position minus catcher (since very few catchers can achieve that). Ideally you'd have no holes in the lineup.

I understand your theory about getting guys with higher OBP's in relation to their SLG more at bats and higher in the order. OBP is of course more important than SLG. No argument here. HOw much so, I'm not sure?


If say Jose Hernandez OBP's .300, SLG's .500... And a Bill Mueller OBP's .400, SLG's .400...I'd want Bill Mueller getting more at bats and Jose Hernandez batting near the bottom.

But I'm a firm believer in there being a baseline level of OPS a player should maintain to remain in the lineup. Where you hit in said lineup, could certainly be determined based on OBP/SLG split though.

2006-03-01 22:35:48
366.   oldbear
351. But theres no way the teams Henderson played for during his prime do so well if Pujols is leading off

Are you suggesting that the Blue Jays would have scored more runs with Ricky Henderson in their lineup and batting 1st, than Albert Pujols in their lineup, and batting 1st?

I'd have to disagree. Henderson did have a great OBP and you're right, its entirely possible that Carter/Canseco dont drive in as many runs without him on base. However, Pujols 45hr power potential and ability to SLG's the ball, would have produced more runs overall. He'd be knocking himself in more often (via the Homer), and the 7,8,9 hitters that would have gotten on as well. Moreso than Ricky Henderson.

2006-03-01 22:39:08
367.   underdog
Has the season started yet? Wake me when it does...

PS: Yes, no Ramon Martinez please. Aybar, Robles, Choi, Guzman, I'll take any combination of any of those, instead. Thank you.

2006-03-01 22:43:05
368.   Daniel B
365 - I actually agree with you oldbear. I dont downplay OPS, I just believe you have to take other things into consideration when constructing a line-up.

Yes things like speed, baserunning, fundamentals, etc. may have little impact indivually over the course of the season. I agree, is a speedy line-up going to win you 15 more games? Probably not. But you take the few games that each of these things add/subtract, and the wins/losses start to add up.

Am i saying that a player with a good OPS with less speed should be benched in favor of a fast player with a significantly worse OPS? No. But say player A is OPSing .831 while stealing 4 bases. Player B is OPSing 7.82, while stealing 47 bases? is extra .049 in OPS going to account for as many runs as the extra runs and scoring opportunities Player B is going to provide for the rest of the line-up?

2006-03-01 22:57:19
369.   Daniel B
366 - However, Pujols 45hr power potential and ability to SLG's the ball, would have produced more runs overall. He'd be knocking himself in more often (via the Homer), and the 7,8,9 hitters that would have gotten on as well. Moreso than Ricky Henderson.

I disagree. Yes, Pujols averages 25 more Homeruns a year than Henderson and strikes out a tad bit less, but henderson walks 33 more times a season, Grounds into 10 less double plays, and steals 68 more bases than Pujols. Are the few runs that Pujols provides with his slugging capabilities going to compensate for the runs he takes away by hitting into more double plays, and walking less? I think that canseco and Carter drive in significantly more runs with henderson on base, enough to compensate for the extra SLG% that Pujols provides.

2006-03-01 23:05:34
370.   das411
369 - And considering that Pujols could average 110 runs scored every year from now through 2021 and STILL be short of Rickey's career record, OB's argument in 366 seems somewhat ridiculous. As great as Pujols has been thus far, Rickey still has a good two decades of experience (and stat-building from healthy seasons) over him.

Or you could just take this line of reasoning to the extreme and just build a lineup of 9 Barry Abdul's, watch the run scored totals increase exponentially as you cannot pitch around any of them.

Not that I'd ever dare suggest that on a Dodger blog...

2006-03-01 23:07:24
371.   Andrew Shimmin
368- If a SB's Run expectancy is .2, then 50 SB (assuming he was 100% successful) would be worth 10 runs. That's not how it would happen, but, anyway, 10 runs. .050 SLG points over 600 ABs would be, if it were all in doubles (RE .75 per), ~9 runs. But, if you figure it's 11 doubles and 2 HR (1.03, per) it's 10.06.

So, not much difference. Assuming the runner never gets caught. You dock .44 for each CS, so if the 50 SB taker got caught 10 times (which is reasonable), that speedster is down to 5.6 runs, a little more than half the mixed power hitter's advantage.

2006-03-01 23:17:26
372.   Brendan
Although I like Steve's post I have to give the award to Ratt. I mean he did put the following in a post that was funny and made sense; Zed(as a pronoun), orgasmic, 50 kittens.

ZED!ZED!ZED

What would Zed's last name be? he should have a profile and we can start trade rumors about him..... Or maybe I need a girlfriend.

2006-03-01 23:31:16
373.   Daniel Zappala
I want to thank all concerned for picking today, of all days, to create the DT thread that I least want to read. I have just finished a 15 hour day at work, and it doesn't matter because the time here today appears to be the least enjoyable of any I have seen. I don't [b]have[/b] to go back and read all these comments.

Thank you thank you thank you.

Please, let's have a better day tomorrow. Bob's cat, Steve's list, Victorian literature, NY neighborhoods. I'll take anything but this.

In fact, the only thing I care about is Bob's cat. I don't want to read 372 comments to find out what happened to him. Where was Casey?

2006-03-01 23:40:41
374.   Bob Timmermann
Casey is sitting on the highest shelf of my closet. He seems content there. He seems to peek out a bit more.
2006-03-01 23:42:04
375.   LAT
Did you get him to the vet today?
2006-03-01 23:44:11
376.   thinkblue0
I've got a question for everyone:

how long do the Lofton and Cruz experiements last if they're not playing up to par? This is something I've been wondering since it's entirely realistic that neither repeat their performance last year.

And if say, Cruz isn't getting the job done, who replaces him? That's what's scaring me about this team right now. Eithier? Guzman? This outfield situation is a bigger question mark to me than the starting pitching....

2006-03-01 23:48:45
377.   Bob Timmermann
Casey is sitting on the highest shelf of my closet. He seems content there. He seems to peek out a bit more.
2006-03-01 23:48:46
378.   Bob Timmermann
Casey is sitting on the highest shelf of my closet. He seems content there. He seems to peek out a bit more.
2006-03-01 23:49:15
379.   LAT
376. I think thta is what ST is for. We start to get a look at some of the kids like Either or Guzman and some of the second stringers like, dare I say it, Repko. I think that we'll be in a better position to answer that in three weeks.

BTW, just set the Tivo for Fri Dodger v. Braves game, Sat's D'Back v. W. Sox game and Sunday's Giant game. Sweet!

2006-03-01 23:49:27
380.   Bob Timmermann
You know the cat REALLY likes that shelf.
2006-03-02 00:00:54
381.   LAT
What is the shelf life of a new cat?

Henny Youngmen I ain't.

2006-03-02 00:05:56
382.   bhsportsguy
Plashke's got D Lowe's back...
http://tinyurl.com/qughn
2006-03-02 00:07:09
383.   LAT
D.Lowe's in trouble then
2006-03-02 00:09:15
384.   LAT
Lakers lose.

Clippers win-they hold NO/OKC to a record low 16points in the second half.

2006-03-02 00:09:40
385.   Andrew Shimmin
Ignore 371, I screwed it up. Over 600 ABs, .05 SLG is 30 bases. But you can't just add new hits, you have to take the difference in value of those XB hits from singles, to keep the batting average constant. Also, I stupidly copied the RE value of a triple in place of a HR. So. If those 30 bases all come from doubles, than it's 30 2B (at .75 per) minus 30 1B (at .46 per). So 30x.29=8.7 runs. Still more than the expected runs of the 50/10 base stealer. 10 HR (40 bases-10 bases) at a differential of .94 per is 9.4 runs.

So the .05 slugging advantage is worth between 8.7 and 9.4 runs. I know it was just a hypothetical that probably nobody cared about, but I don't want to leave it wrong.

2006-03-02 00:15:57
386.   ToyCannon
Just got back from the Clipper game where we set an all time NBA record by holding the Hornets to 16 points in the 2nd half. At one point the Hornets were up by 10 points 59 to 49 with 8 minutes to go in the 3rd qtr. We then scored 25 straight points and the Hornets only scored 8 more points the rest of the game. Not bad with your starting Center and Small Forward unable to play.
2006-03-02 00:19:03
387.   bhsportsguy
*Guzman began his crash course in outfield play from bench coach Dave Jauss, who believes his pupil could become capable enough to start opening day at Dodger Stadium.

More important is how well Guzman hits in spring games.

"When his bat is ready, you make his glove ready," Jauss said. "He could be proficient in a month."*

Maybe we do have something to watch this spring. And isn't nice to have the local paper pick up on this thread.

2006-03-02 00:20:15
388.   Andrew Shimmin
An addition to my list of things I hope never happen to me: get marital counseling from my boss's wife.
2006-03-02 00:20:16
389.   regfairfield
382 I'm proud to say that I personally saw D-Lowe give up 10 home runs last year (I was definately at the game Plaschke mentions).
2006-03-02 00:27:28
390.   Uncle Miltie
"At this point, at McCourt's urging, Lowe met with club President Jamie McCourt, who Frank says has experience in marital counseling and law.

Sources say that meeting did not go well and that she wanted to trade him, although Frank McCourt denied it."
I think we know who wears the pants in the family. This also tells us who was behind getting rid of Milton Bradley.

2006-03-02 01:32:46
391.   bhsportsguy
I think best news in today's papers is that they (LAT, Daily News) are reporting that Guzman has a real shot if he can hit and that if he is on the team, he will play.

If I were the Ja[y]sons, I might be concerned.

2006-03-02 07:02:50
392.   Sam DC
[gingerly puts his toe in the thread . . . ]

Apparently, it's better to go to Dodger Spring Training than Nationals Spring Training. Here is a comment left on the Washington Post Nationals Spring Training Blog abut yesterday's game (edited to add punctuation):

Last year for me as a season ticket holder. Was at the game, one of the few that was. $3.oo for a soda $3.50 for a bag of peanuts and $3.oo for a bottle of water. $5.00 a beer $6.00 for amberbock draft. $5.00 to park. The list goes on and on. We play Korea and panama check out the dodgers schdule - back to dodger town for me.

Another read of course is that its better to enjoy life rather than be miserably grumpy . . .

2006-03-02 07:08:25
393.   Sam DC
And the latest article on the travails of my neighborhood stadium deal has a classic quote from DC Mayor Tony Williams: "'People feel betrayed on both sides,' Williams said of the [city] council and MLB. 'There's bad faith on both sides. And I think the only thing everybody agrees on is they don't like me.'"

http://tinyurl.com/r5oh7

2006-03-02 07:13:05
394.   Sam DC
Sorry, but I really can't resist the DC triple. Consider it palate cleansing.

Contra the guy above who thought Dodger Spring Training is cooler than Nationals spring training, is this note from the nationals.com beat reporter: "Actor Mickey Carroll was spotted at the game on Wednesday. He is making a tour of Spring Training camps. Carroll is best known for being a munchkin in the 'Wizard of Oz.'"

Top that Hollywood!

2006-03-02 07:55:36
395.   overkill94
I didn't realize mlb.tv showed spring training games. A few questions for those who subscribe:

1. I can only pay for one month and then cancel right?
2. Do they have the games available to watch after they're completed?
3. Are there any blackouts?

Thanks

2006-03-02 08:45:12
396.   dsfan
391

I wouldn't read to much into the for-public-consumption remarks about Guzman.

Pumping up the prospects is part of the spring rite. Even more easily done when you have so many questions in the outfield.

2006-03-02 08:52:17
397.   tjshere
From ESPN, Gagne leaves camp for personal reasons -

http://tinyurl.com/fjlvq

"He told us he'll be back by Sunday," Little said before the Dodgers opened their exhibition schedule against the Atlanta Braves. "He'll throw on the side Monday and pitch in a game Wednesday. He feels great."

2006-03-02 08:53:06
398.   DodgerBakers
OT, but Gagne left camp for the always popular "personal reasons." http://tinyurl.com/fjlvq
2006-03-02 09:13:55
399.   Blu2
I'm beginning to think DanielB is Thinkingblue...
2006-03-02 09:19:48
400.   jasonungar05
And the dodgers faded after trading Lo Duca.

--

LOL

Show/Hide Comments 401-450
2006-03-02 09:27:03
401.   underdog
Speaking of which... You guys probably already knew this, or maybe even already said this here somewhere, but the Dodgers-Braves game tomorrow is on ESPN, 10AM. I'll be TivO-ing it so I can watch it later in only 30 minutes. ;-)
2006-03-02 15:41:24
402.   thinkingblue
400.

It is true, the dodgers were .500 after that trade.

2006-03-02 15:44:31
403.   thinkingblue
360.

Of course, There are going to be more home runs coming form different sources. That is just a reasonable expectation from the current players in the starting line up.

2006-03-02 15:46:51
404.   thinkingblue
352.

The angels won 95 ball games putting pressure on the defense, and leading the leauge in clutch hitting. And yes, in 2004, the dodgers only half their games the rest of the way.

2006-03-02 15:49:23
405.   thinkingblue
*Disagree. Give me 9 Albert Pujols. Or 9 A-Rod's. Accepting anything less than the highest OPS is settling for someone that simply cant create as many runs as the other guy.

The 'balance' argument is basically a way to justify (without statistical date to back it up), a reason for the Loftons, Repkos and Izturis' to be in the lineup. It makes no logical sense.

My idea of a 'balanced' lineup entails no holes. Meaning every player OPS's a certain amount*

The problem with that argument is, there is no way you can afford 9 A-Rods or Pujols.

2006-03-02 15:56:20
406.   thinkingblue
<<Take this one step further. For the sake of argument lets assume stolen bases have some type of larger value that all of us fail to acknowledge.

Where are all these steals going to come from? Just speculating on our lineups current age/trends.

Furcal-50 steals at most
Lofton- 20 steals at most maybe?
Drew- is he a threat to run?
Kent- is he a threat to run?
Mueller- is he a threat to run?
Nomar-is he a threat to run?
Cruz- is he a threat to run?
Navarro--is he a threat to run?

How much faster are the Dodgers?
How much better defensively are the Dodgers?
How much better is their pitching?

I dont see big differences in anything from them last year. I do see a substantial drop off in power and patience however.

The 2005 Dodgers had Jose Valentin, Bradley, and Choi/Saenz which they reasonably expected to hit 70HR's collectively.

Lofton, Mueller, and Nomar are going to hit how many? Maybe 35.

I see the expected decrease in power, much more dramatic than the supposed increase in speed. And how much more important is SLG%than Stolen bases?

Have we in fact reached the point of comparing stolen bases and home runs<<

Well oldbear, considering that the top two people in the line up you have stole more bases than the ENTIRE dodger's roster last year, yes, I'd say that is an improvement.

The dodgers are better defensively, they have an actual solid defensive third baseman, and have not dropped anywhere else.

Pitching is better, we don't have a hole at the five spot.

Power and patience... we had an awful line up in 05. You had at least 3 big holes at the bottome of the line up in Valinetin, Choi, and Phillips.

Again, you are looking at constricted individual numbers. Also, Bradley's carrer high in HR was 20, Valinetin was moving to dodger stadium, and Phillips, nuff said with him.

This team is just so much better as an entire unit. You just don't wanna admit it because you still have not let Depo go.

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