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About Jon
Thank You For Not ...

1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
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12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with

Guzman Won't Go Away
2006-03-20 20:41
by Jon Weisman
Note: The Dodger Thoughts blog has moved to the Los Angeles Times.

Apparently pleased with Joel Guzman's outfield play and noting his infield experience, Dodger manager Grady Little is considering Guzman for the spot on the 25-man roster tentatively held by Ramon Martinez, according to Ken Gurnick at MLB.com.

Little originally said if Guzman doesn't play every day in the big leagues, he would play every day in the Minor Leagues. Little backed a bit off that position on Monday, even though it would be highly unusual for a top prospect jumping from Double-A.

"It's sticky. There are very few people who think he can't help our club, but is it the best thing for him?" said Little. "He's done a great job adjusting to the outfield, making all the plays, and I'm confident he can do other things defensively, like shortstop and first and third base. In left field, he looks like Dave Winfield."

I'm sure you're thinking what I'm thinking - that no doubt Guzman is better than Martinez right now, but that it might harm Guzman's long-term development if he plays sporadically and doesn't get enough at-bats. But it is worth asking, does a player develop more from 500 at-bats against AAA pitching or 250 at-bats against the best in the U.S. (albeit not the world)? I'm not sure that an apprenticeship is such a bad idea.

Update: As several commenters discuss below, the kicker is Guzman's underdeveloped plate discipline. Where can he best learn balls and strikes? As I replied:

Let's put it this way - if he's going to be overwhelmed in the bigs, than keep him in AAA. If he's going to be challenged, let him apprentice. It's the difference between being overwhelmed and being challenged that I'm trying to suss out.

If he makes outs and he has no idea why, that's no good. If he makes outs that he can learn from, that's another thing.

My biggest concern:

I don't mind seeing Guzman starting the season in Las Vegas. The thing that does worry me is if he starts the season as the Opening Day left fielder in Los Angeles, goes 1-for 20 and the town starts ripping everyone in sight.

So all in all, in the real world, the safe move is to start Guzman in Las Vegas and wait for him to overwhelm the pitching in AAA. There are other options to supplant Ramon Martinez in the short term. And maybe it won't be a long wait.

Update 2: Jason Repko has "made the team," Steve Henson reports Grady Little saying in the Times. That means four out of six spots on the Dodger bench are taken: Olmedo Saenz, Ricky Ledee, Sandy Alomar, Jr. and Repko.

Battling for the final two spots: Guzman, Martinez, Oscar Robles, Hee Seop Choi, Willy Aybar (who got some kind words from Little in Henson's article), Cody Ross and Andre Ethier. Robles might be the favorite to take one slot, while Guzman, Martinez, Aybar and Choi vie for the other. Repko has probably taken the right-handed-hitting Ross' chance, and Ethier makes sense to start in AAA.

Update 3: The Dodgers must decide by March 29 if they want Martinez on their Opening Day roster, or give him a five-day window to find another major league employer, reports Gurnick in his latest piece.

Martinez will earn $700,000 if the Dodgers keep him; the implication is that this contract becomes guaranteed by March 29 if neither party does anything to stop it. Of course, Martinez could explore his options from March 29 through April 2 and still end up a Dodger, but one assumes that the Dodgers would be prepared to move on without him in that scenario.

Comments (338)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2006-03-20 20:52:08
1.   MartinBillingsley31
I think guzman needs 500+ at bats either in AAA or on the team.
No part time role for him.
2006-03-20 20:54:56
2.   Jon Weisman
1 - Yes, that's the common thought, and I don't necessarily disagree. But again I ask the question, why are 500 at-bats against significantly worse pitching automatically better than 250 at-bats against the best?
2006-03-20 20:56:21
3.   Uncle Miltie
This a very stupid idea. Guzman needs to play everyday. I think even playing him like Pedro Guerrero (at multiple positions), but giving him 500+ at bats is a bad idea.
2006-03-20 20:58:33
4.   oldbear
Where does this leave Repko, Guzman, Choi, Martinez, and Aybar?

If Guzman makes it over Martinez, I assume Repko, Choi, Aybar all make it too correct?

2006-03-20 20:59:15
5.   MartinBillingsley31
2

I think he needs to work on his plate discipline, and i don't think he can do that when he's not given an everyday role.
If he's only part time on the dodgers to me he would be up there hacking away to try to impresss.

Just what i think.

2006-03-20 21:01:43
6.   MartinBillingsley31
4

Man, i don't know i'm confused.
Grady keeps saying a different thing everyday.

2006-03-20 21:06:04
7.   Jon Weisman
Locks: Saenz, Ledee, Alomar.
If you add Guzman, that means Robles is staying as a left-handed hitting shortstop.

That leaves one spot, up for grabs among Repko, Choi, Ethier, Aybar, Ross and Martinez.

2006-03-20 21:09:41
8.   Jon Weisman
5 - Maybe. Maybe he learns plate discipline quicker by facing a real good pitcher on certain days than by facing the equivalent of Aaron Sele every day.

I don't mind seeing Guzman starting the season in Las Vegas. The thing that does worry me is if he starts the season as the Opening Day left fielder in Los Angeles, goes 1-for 20 and the town starts ripping everyone in sight.

2006-03-20 21:09:45
9.   Steve
That doesn't leave any spots if we carry 13 pitchers.
2006-03-20 21:11:34
10.   Jon Weisman
7 - Although I suppose if Guzman is being considered as an infielder/outfielder, than Aybar could steal Robles' spot.

I'm mainly thrilled at people recognizing that the team can do better than Martinez.

2006-03-20 21:13:01
11.   jasonungar05
what if Grady came out and said:

I love Guzman's potential, but we got a proven major leauger right there in Ramon Martinez

(this place would be goin crazy...)

2006-03-20 21:14:53
12.   Uncle Miltie
I'm mainly thrilled at people recognizing that the team can do better than Martinez.
One of those people isn't Ned Colletti though and he's probably calling the shots.
2006-03-20 21:16:22
13.   Andrew Shimmin
I don't have any idea what the effect would be on Guzman. I know that it makes him more expensive, sooner, and with less production, so it's not a great business move. And it'd be harder to evaluate his progress with half a sample, than with a whole one.

I'm also not convinced he'd be better than Martinez, this year. I think he probably would be, but I'm not sure anybody has a reliable AA/MLB conversion algorithm. And Little's thinking, that JtD could be a dual purpose (IF/OF) sub seems a little silly. Martinez has, what, one week less OF time than JtD?

I'm agin it, but not foursquare agin it.

2006-03-20 21:17:31
14.   Jon Weisman
12 - Well, the whole idea of 2006 is that everyone's on the same page, right???
2006-03-20 21:18:39
15.   natepurcell
this would be a dumb move because

1- guzman's bat is still raw
2- his k rate in AA shows he isnt ready yet
3- he needs to play everyday and get consistent at bats so he can improve his outfield play and plate discipline
4- this is going to ruin the las vegas 51s run at the PCL championship!

2006-03-20 21:18:55
16.   MartinBillingsley31
8

Good point.

I know i'm a broken record, but i don't expect guzman to outproduce cruz, but i do expect him to outproduce lofton, so if he starts everyday it should be over lofton otherwise send him to AAA.

I still think guzman will be better off seeing more pitches on an everyday basis even tho it might or might not be against lesser talent.

2006-03-20 21:23:37
17.   Steve
Agreed with nate. They're halfway home in that they recognize they can do better than Martinez. Now they just have to figure out that Choi is better than Martinez.
2006-03-20 21:23:54
18.   Marty
Put the kid in there. What the hey? I'm too old to wait much longer.
2006-03-20 21:24:21
19.   King of the Hobos
Guzman has played the OF for what? Two weeks? He needs to play the OF if he'd now an OFer, let him get comfortable there. I don't like the idea of having him constantly change position, while only getting sporadic ABs
2006-03-20 21:25:55
20.   Jon Weisman
15 - Well, your #4 made me laugh. #1 ... I know what you mean, but it's the kind of vague talk that isn't productive.

I agree that Guzman's plate discipline is the big issue.

Let's put it this way - if he's going to be overwhelmed in the bigs, than keep him in AAA. If he's going to be challenged, let him apprentice. It's the difference between being overwhelmed and being challenged that I'm trying to suss out.

If he makes outs and he has no idea why, that's no good. If he makes outs that he can learn from, that's another thing.

I do feel defense can be learned off the clock, as it were. Game situations are easily replicated in practice.

2006-03-20 21:26:52
21.   Bob Timmermann
Antonio Perez apparently couldn't learn defense off the clock.
2006-03-20 21:27:28
22.   Jon Weisman
17 - If Little or Colletti keep Choi on the roster, I'll have seriously misjudged them.
2006-03-20 21:28:42
23.   Jon Weisman
21 - Apparently, he couldn't even find the clock.
2006-03-20 21:30:09
24.   Steve
They do seem kind of dense, despite whatever cause for optimism there is.
2006-03-20 21:30:29
25.   natepurcell
jon,

i dont think he is going to be challenged, i think he will flat out, fall on his face right now in the majors. Probably jason repko 2005 production but with more ISOp.

i think i might want him to be in vegas for selfish reasons. i mean, come on, who doesnt want to see a vegas lineup of

2b aybar
c martin
cf ethier
lf guzman
3b laroche
1b loney
rf young

!!!!!

2006-03-20 21:31:47
26.   D4P
25
You forgot

SS Martinez

2006-03-20 21:32:53
27.   Jon Weisman
25 - I really do think you might be right, but your infatuation with building the perfect AAA team is disturbing. Why don't we option Drew and Gagne?
2006-03-20 21:34:30
28.   D4P
your infatuation with building the perfect AAA team is disturbing

Jon, meet Nate. Nate, Jon.

2006-03-20 21:35:48
29.   natepurcell
Why don't we option Drew and Gagne?

i would if i could. :)

2006-03-20 21:39:03
30.   Steve
Probably jason repko 2005 production but with more ISOp.

If you turn him into Jason Guzman, I will hunt you down.

2006-03-20 21:40:53
31.   Jon Weisman
Okay, you guys have made your case. I don't think it's a horrible idea to let Guzman break camp with the Dodgers, but it's more prudent to start him in AAA.
2006-03-20 21:42:41
32.   natepurcell
oh football news.

vikings get steve hutchinson. it was a hard fought battle with the special master ruling in the vikings favor. seattle declined to match the contract at 12ET tonight. yay!

2006-03-20 21:45:14
33.   natepurcell
what im looking out for is guzmans long term interest.

is the difference in production between a guzman and a lucille II for the beginning of thsi year that important to possibly ruin or stagnetize (i think i just made up a word) guzman's offensive progress?

i think its in guzman's best long term interest to star the year in AAA and get 300+ or so AAA ABs before being called up.

2006-03-20 21:58:40
34.   Steve
Why was a special master involved?
2006-03-20 22:11:30
35.   natepurcell
the seahawks put the transistion tag on hutchinson at the start of free agency so they had the ability to match any offer sheet hutchinson signs on the free agent market.

the vikings signed hutchinson to a 7 yr 49 mil offer sheet with 16mil gaurenteed. The thing was, to keep seattle from matching the contract, the vikings place a "poison pill" into the contract language stating that if hutchinson isnt the highest paid offensive linemen on the team he is on in 2006, then the whole 49 million contract would have to be gaurenteed and paid up front as a signing bonus.

since seattle had walter jones with a larger contract then hutchinson, the poison pill would automatically apply to them if they choose to match. They thought this was unfair so they wanted a special master to decide if the poison pill clause was valid.

2006-03-20 22:14:53
36.   Uncle Miltie
I posted this in the other thread, but now it may be too late:
Nate, quick, kidnap Gourriel before he gets on a plane to go back to Cuba. How long will it take you to drive to San Diego?
2006-03-20 22:16:28
37.   natepurcell
wow, dodgers reassigned billingsley, young, kemp and loney to minor league camp.

billingsley and loney were suprising.

2006-03-20 22:16:54
38.   natepurcell
im in tucson so it will take me about 6 hours.
2006-03-20 22:18:05
39.   Uncle Miltie
You better hop on a plane instead...now
2006-03-20 22:19:48
40.   Jon Weisman
37 - Huh? You were surprised that those guys didn't make the 25-man roster?
2006-03-20 22:20:44
41.   King of the Hobos
37 Seo, Perez, and Choi are back in camp, so it really shouldn't be that surprising. Billingsley will no longer get many innings, and he won't make the team out of spring, so let him increase his pitch counts in minor league camp. With Choi, Nomar, and Saenz now in camp, Loney lost his purpose, as he wasn't going to make the team either.
2006-03-20 22:21:23
42.   natepurcell
no i was suprised they were reassigned this early. i was expecting at least one more start from billingsley and loney has been raking. i would think they would give him more ABs.
2006-03-20 22:22:57
43.   Jon Weisman
You can still play in Spring Training games even after you're reassigned.
2006-03-20 22:23:26
44.   natepurcell
oops i forgot about choi coming back. makes more sense with loney now.
2006-03-20 22:28:40
45.   underdog
Meanwhile, we could have a Soriano situation to deal with (and Jim Bowden as GM), so we should be all giving thanks for Guzman's flexibility, and the team dynamics as they stand right now in general.

Oh, and put me down on the start Guzman in AAA camp (with the feeling, and it's just a feeling, that he'll be up before mid-season...)

C

2006-03-20 22:32:00
46.   natepurcell
i was waiting for lasorda to say something politcally incorrect... but it never happened.

but he did talk really loud and slow to mataszuka.

2006-03-20 22:50:36
47.   GIDP
I say Guzman to AAA too. But I also wonder about how Vegas will affect his hitting. After all, Albuquerque had a bit of a Coor's Field effect as well and it gave us Billy Ashley.
2006-03-20 22:54:16
48.   screwballin
I agree that Guzman's most dire need is plate discipline, but for him to learn that at the major league level, doesn't someone have to be emphasizing it to him? Not sure if we have anyone making that a priority. Pretty sure it wouldn't be Grittle.

The sad part is, the same might be said about Vegas.

2006-03-20 22:55:30
49.   dsfan
I like that Griddle is open-minded about Guzman. That's how Griddle's mentor Cox is. Sometimes the Braves have pushed a kid with good results. Could happen here -- but I doubt it.

I think starting Guzman in Triple-A is the way to go. My guess is that Griddle is just acknowledging Guzman's nice spring camp and pumping him up a little bit. Pretty good move on Griddle's part. Let the kid know that if he's versatile and hungry, he might get up here sooner than expected.

2006-03-20 23:04:36
50.   coachjpark
Wouldn't it be a bad idea to start Guzman with the Dodgers simply because his marginal value as a player over a Ramon Martinez or Hee Seop Choi wouldn't justify starting his arbitration-eligibility/free-agentosity clock?

Wouldn't it serve the Dodgers' best interest and, as many have noted, Guzman's best interests if he stays at AAA to start out the year?

Just thought I'd make an economic argument that the marginal cost of bringing up Guzman wouldn't justify the marginal benefit of having him learn with the big club...

Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2006-03-20 23:06:31
51.   natepurcell
kuo is schedule to pitch tomorrow and the game will be on espn. something to look forward too!
2006-03-20 23:16:39
52.   bhsportsguy
Jon - my post on the previous entry was a strong endorsement of "The Best of Dodger Thoughts".

I would never compare it to rotten eggs.

2006-03-20 23:52:25
53.   LAT
38 Nate, my daughter and I are coming to ST in Tucson this weekend. As though she doesn't have enough Shawn Green autographs. (I'm trying to redirect her to Stephen Drew). Are you framiliar with the D'Backs ST facility? I have been told that the best place to score autographs is the walkway between the practice field and the stadium about an hour before the game. Do you know if this is accurate? Any other suggestions? Thanks
2006-03-20 23:56:53
54.   dsfan
Not surprisingly the Baseball Prospectus health report on the Dodgers is rife with red flags. Like six of them for the everyday players with three yellows and nary a green. Oh yes, Mr. Gagne gets a red flag, too.
2006-03-21 00:01:01
55.   Bob Timmermann
49

I have no opinion on Guzman.

It's GRITTLE, you want to talk about.

2006-03-21 05:47:06
56.   Jon Weisman
52 - I know ... thanks :)

54 - File that one under "Someone is skipping straight to the chat without reading my posts" :)

2006-03-21 05:56:23
57.   Jon Weisman
Repko has made the team. See update above.
2006-03-21 06:14:04
58.   Sushirabbit
I think I agree with Jon on Guzman coming up early. It is a tough call, and one hard way of seeing how the manager and GM are thinking. But if if JtD can learn from guys like Kent, Nomar, and Mueller, then maybe it'd be worth it. I don't know how the heck you figure something like that out.
2006-03-21 06:32:34
59.   bhsportsguy
We will know what the Dodgers will do with HSC by March 29.

Personally I would look for a package deal with Cody Ross for a AA trainer and frequent flyer miles.

http://tinyurl.com/jh8ny

2006-03-21 06:57:23
60.   Vishal
[59] tony jackson hates choi. i'm not shocked that he's chomping at the bit to see him gone. what a jerkface.
2006-03-21 07:00:09
61.   MLKaplan43
50 - I'm feelin' ya on the free agent/arbitration clock thing. If the Dodgers can make it into the summer without Guzman, it should set his clock back a year. I think one year of service time = 180 days on the 25-MR and/or DL.

Although this sort of thing caused bad blood in Tampa Bay, the situation is a little different here.

2006-03-21 07:21:12
62.   King of the Hobos
Project BROTheR was a rousing success. Hopefully Project SMOTheR works out a little better
2006-03-21 07:23:05
63.   Steve
And we would have gotten away with it too, if it hadn't been for those meddling kids and that dog!
2006-03-21 07:23:30
64.   Sushirabbit
Vishal, how was Ireland?

62 I wonder what set of eyes, Steve is on?

2006-03-21 07:45:56
65.   D4P
Sponsors of Project SMOTheR were cautiously optimistic regarding the project's success after yesterday's revelations.
2006-03-21 07:48:03
66.   Steve
Evil Billionaires always diversify
2006-03-21 08:47:07
67.   gvette
Guzman "looks like Dave Winfield"?

Interesting comment, considering the amount of time that Winfield spent in AAA (none).

2006-03-21 09:26:51
68.   Steve
Choi has 1,000 times more range and flexibility as a first baseman than Tony Jackson has as a sportswriter.
2006-03-21 09:52:49
69.   Vishal
[64] ireland was great! i had a wonderful time, and everybody was extremely friendly. i can't wait to go back sometime. the countryside was gorgeous; i took lots of pictures. i'll try to do a writeup and post them before long. thanks again for your advice!!
2006-03-21 10:08:31
70.   D4P
Today's scintillating lineup:

Repko LF
Robles SS
Cruz CF
Saenz 1B
Ledee RF
Mueller 3B
Martin C
Martinez 2B
Sele P

2006-03-21 10:09:57
71.   MartinBillingsley31
Darn it, the game is on espn and guzman is not starting.

But my boy martin is.

2006-03-21 10:11:57
72.   jasonungar05
choi isnt even playing?
2006-03-21 10:13:12
73.   natepurcell
boring lineup. i wanted to see choi and guzman and ethier!
2006-03-21 10:15:18
74.   natepurcell
reggie abercrombie!!
2006-03-21 10:16:16
75.   MLKaplan43
What? You're not excited about seeing former Dodger prospect Regie Abercrombie play for the Fish?
2006-03-21 10:19:14
76.   natepurcell
future dodger miggy cabrera homers.
2006-03-21 10:19:40
77.   MartinBillingsley31
From the l.a. times article, it say robles will make the team if the dodgers consider him a better pinch hitter than martinez, otherwise there is no need to carry 2 utility infielders

That tells me that martinez has made the team.
so its alomar saenz ledee repko martinez.
How many of the above are lefthanded, better question how many are powerhitting lefthanders, the only lefthander is ledee, my guess would be that the lefthander with the most power (choi) makes the team.

2006-03-21 10:24:37
78.   MartinBillingsley31
http://www.latimes.com/sports/baseball/mlb/dodgers/la-sp-dodrep21mar21,1,2836743.story?coll=la-headlines-sports-mlb-dodger
2006-03-21 10:26:40
79.   Jon Weisman
77 - It looks like Martinez has made the team if Guzman isn't on it. But Guzman is the wild card that could knock Martinez off.
2006-03-21 10:30:12
80.   MartinBillingsley31
79

And i doubt that happens.
It would be foolish to use guzman as a pinch hitter.

Hey, i wouldn't be surprised to see choi make the team, we have only 1 powerhitting lefthander on the bench in ledee.

2006-03-21 10:33:49
81.   D4P
Regarding "powerhitting lefthanders," Flanders expressed his preference for "speed and athleticism" over "power" shortly upon being hired.
2006-03-21 10:36:13
82.   natepurcell
hahaha reggue abercrombie touches them all!
2006-03-21 10:36:37
83.   D4P
Abercrombie is on fire.
2006-03-21 10:37:08
84.   MartinBillingsley31
81

That's right, i need to stop thinking like depodesta and start thinking like flanders.
LOL!

2006-03-21 10:38:32
85.   MartinBillingsley31
Is the sele experiment over yet?
2006-03-21 10:40:57
86.   D4P
Yep, looks like Aaron has seled his own fate...
2006-03-21 10:42:51
87.   Jon Weisman
Regardless of what the right thing to do with Guzman is, I don't know why people would assume that Guzman would only be a pinch-hitter. We've got a starting outfield that figures to miss about 30-50 games in right, 50-60 games in center and 30-50 games in left. Every infield starter has age or health concerns as well. The reserves will get huge amounts of playing time.
2006-03-21 10:43:39
88.   natepurcell
ha, sele is getting hammered. hermida has such a pretty swing.
2006-03-21 10:46:14
89.   D4P
Get Pedro, er, Aaron, out of there, Grittle!!!
2006-03-21 10:52:28
90.   bigcpa
Any Choi sighting on the bench or did the team tell him today's game was in Vero?

We're in bizarro territory when the right-handed murderers row of Alomar, Martinez and Repko opens the door for Choi.

2006-03-21 11:07:32
91.   gvette
Dodgers who successfully jumped from AA to the Majors: Steve Sax, Fernando, and Steve Howe, (all three R.O.Y.).

Has anyone successfully done it for the Dodgers in the last 25 years?

Both Garvey and Buckner made the '70 Dodgers out of Spring Training, didn't hit, and were sent down after a month. Didn't seem to hinder their development much.

2006-03-21 11:12:41
92.   oldbear
It was inevitable that Repko would make the team. I'm wondering why Ethier couldnt have beat him out, but the Dodgers are under th illusion that Repko is a good CF'er, when in reality he's horrible.

Hopefully Werth gets healthy by June and permanently takes Repko's job.

Bench looking mighty weak with Martinez, Robles, Alomar, Repko, Saenz, Ledee.

2006-03-21 11:17:26
93.   oldbear
agree that Guzman's most dire need is plate discipline, but for him to learn that at the major league level, doesn't someone have to be emphasizing it to him?

Exactly. I dont think the Dodgers are being ran that way anymore though.

2006-03-21 11:17:33
94.   MartinBillingsley31
If the reserves are going to get significant playing time, then why delay the innevetable(my spelling is terrible), put guzman in the outfield with drew and cruz and have lofton on the bench.

I'd rather have lofton on the bench than any of the predicted bench players except saenz and ledee.

2006-03-21 11:20:21
95.   Andrew Shimmin
They'll have Lance Carter and Jeff Weaver as RH PHs. So, you know, all is not lost.
2006-03-21 11:20:25
96.   regfairfield
92 Well, Repko being horrible is debatable. Rate and fielding runs really like him (108 rate2, eight fielding runs over average), but probalistic model of range has him as the worst centerfielder in baseball. He's probably somewhere in the middle. He gets terrible jumps, but his speed does let him get to a lot of balls.
2006-03-21 11:20:41
97.   Uncle Miltie
Just turned on the game and saw that the Marlins were beating us 7-2. I was thinking, I really hoped that one our young pitchers didn't get hammered. It turns it was Aaron Sele, which made me very happy. I hope this seals his fate (no pun intended).

I'm glad to see Abercrombie doing well. The guy is a great defender, but he has zero plate discipline.

Nice hitting by Lance Carter.

2006-03-21 11:25:02
98.   LAT
Bench looking mighty weak with Martinez, Robles, Alomar, Repko, Saenz, Ledee.

So much those who argue Ned has added depth.
Four of them are Depo guys and the other two are not an upgrade.

2006-03-21 11:25:11
99.   Marty
95 Jeff Weaver?
2006-03-21 11:25:27
100.   Uncle Miltie
On Repko- I really don't think he's a horrible defender. I'd actually say that he's slightly above average, because like regfairfield said, his very good speed makes up for his bad jumps and poor routes on balls. On that last at bat, he actually showed improved plate discipline. He didn't swing at that curveball in the dirt. I think he's fine as long as he's our 5th outfielder. As a pinch runner/defensive replacement, he has some value.
Show/Hide Comments 101-150
2006-03-21 11:25:35
101.   slackfarmer
Only one slot left in the Sabertooth Dodgers fantasy baseball league -- newly upgraded to Yahoo Sports Fantasy Baseball PLUS. One more smart Dodger fan wanted. See www.bluethinktank.blogspot.com for more info.
2006-03-21 11:25:55
102.   regfairfield
99 It's a short drive.
2006-03-21 11:27:10
103.   Uncle Miltie
Remember when I told you guys that Cruz is a horrible center fielder? Somebody here (I think it was oldbear) wanted him CF instead of Lofton. Bad idea.
2006-03-21 11:27:12
104.   Dark Horse
Yeah, the sunny side of this game is watching Sele get hammered. You'd like to think that would be that, but I'm afraid still.

Darkly, one hears things like, "and punches out Repko for the second time today," and can only wonder whether the '05 season has yet truly ended.

2006-03-21 11:27:17
105.   Andrew Shimmin
99- Man; I completely zoned out on that. All really is lost!
2006-03-21 11:27:33
106.   D4P
The proven veterans are getting rocked today.
2006-03-21 11:33:23
107.   GoBears
97 I hope this seals his fate (no pun intended).

The pun was intended in 86.

2006-03-21 11:34:58
108.   MartinBillingsley31
The middle relief and bench are going to be sad this season and the dodgers are going to be relying on the middle relief and the bench alot this season, due to 4 positions without power and tomko in the rotation, with perez and seo as question marks (both will probably turn out good but still question marks).
2006-03-21 11:35:50
109.   OaklandAs
98 ESPN.com has an article today on the Top 5 benches in the majors. They list the Dodgers in the Top 5, but include Choi, Izturis, Werth, Alomar, and Saenz as the bench. Somehow, they also list the Cubs as having a good bench.

http://tinyurl.com/fglxg

2006-03-21 11:36:31
110.   King of the Hobos
The Reds acquired old friend David Ross for Bobby Basham. With Larue and Valentin already there, I have no idea why they wanted him, but he could hit a lot of homers there. Maybe put Valentin at 1st, and bench Hatteberg
2006-03-21 11:37:07
111.   Jon Weisman
The middle relief will not be sad, unless you expect a bullpen of six pitchers with ERAs below 3.
2006-03-21 11:37:43
112.   Uncle Miltie
107- didn't see that one.

What's with all these short at bats and why hasn't Grits taken out the junky veterans and let the kids play?

2006-03-21 11:39:29
113.   oldbear
Martinez, Robles, Alomar, Repko

Or

Aybar, Choi, Martin, and Ethier.

The Dodgers COULD have a good bench.
They have just apparently chosen not to.

2006-03-21 11:39:39
114.   regfairfield
109 You never have to apologize for putting Neifi Perez in a lineup. Think of how awesome the Cubs bench must be if he's there! (Yes, this was pretty much the logic they used. Of course, they do have a 2nd basemen who can hit .300 there as well.)
2006-03-21 11:40:43
115.   bigcpa
Hey a Hee Seop appearance. Oh no- he still has his "K" cap on.
2006-03-21 11:41:45
116.   Jon Weisman
It's a long season. If the bench is a bunch of old guys hitting .220 on June 1, I'm confident changes will be made.
2006-03-21 11:42:52
117.   DXMachina
You can't stop Reggie Abercrombie, you can only hope to contain him.
2006-03-21 11:44:19
118.   Jon Weisman
Reggie Abercrombie would be a great comeback story. But do the rumors that he improved his plate discipline have any merit?
2006-03-21 11:44:57
119.   Marty
Hey, I'm an old guy hitting 220, minus the "."

I like sitting on benches.

2006-03-21 11:48:24
120.   Uncle Miltie
Osoria strikes out the side.

Just saw on the bottom of the screen that the Pirates optioned Brad Eldred to AAA. Not surprised with Tracy there. If Casey goes down, expect Humberto Cota to become the Pirates starting 1B.

2006-03-21 11:54:03
121.   Bob Timmermann
Out of the blue question:
Does anyone know if I buy the 2 for 1 Southern California tickets at my local Vons and then give them to my non-Southern California living brother and his family to use when they visit Disneyland if they will run in to any hassle. It seems to me that they will be checking my residency when I buy the tickets and not at the Happiest Place on Earth (TM).
2006-03-21 11:57:34
122.   Uncle Miltie
Grits, that would have been a good time to hit and run. Martin is a very good contact hitter.
2006-03-21 11:58:40
123.   MartinBillingsley31
111

The middle relief will not be sad, unless you expect a bullpen of six pitchers with ERAs below 3.

If tomko flops (likely), perez flops (maybe), seo turns out to be the bad seo not the good seo (who knows), then we will need six pitchers with ERAs below 3.50.

brazoban carter hamulack don't excite me.

Thankfully we have gagne baez and hopefully kuo.

But then again we have broxton and osoria waiting.

2006-03-21 12:02:24
124.   Jon Weisman
123 - Well, the problem you cite is not a middle relief problem, it's a potential starting pitching problem.

Having exciting middle relievers is a true luxury. The Dodgers have plenty of options to get a back-end crew with ERAs at or under 4. I think that's a positive thing.

2006-03-21 12:02:47
125.   MartinBillingsley31
116

It's a long season. If the bench is a bunch of old guys hitting .220 on June 1, I'm confident changes will be made.

I'm not confidant, knowing ned "i love speed athleticism veteran presence and makeup over ops" colletti is in charge.

I just have a bad feeling.

2006-03-21 12:03:58
126.   Uncle Miltie
It's Pat!
2006-03-21 12:04:24
127.   slackfarmer
Pat Borders. Why?
2006-03-21 12:07:54
128.   sanchez101
I think we're really going to enjoy osoria, BP had a write up on him today.
2006-03-21 12:07:57
129.   Jon Weisman
125 - I didn't see "I love low batting averages" on Ned's list of favorite things.

I may be guilty of overestimating Ned, I suppose, but if he were as bad as you fear, Martinez and Robles would be competing to be the starting shortstop, not the backup.

2006-03-21 12:08:14
130.   D4P
126
Aaaaaaaah (scratches under arms...)
2006-03-21 12:08:36
131.   regfairfield
123 Name a team whose 4th, 5th, and 6th guys out of the bullpen are exciting.

Other than Carter, every member of the Dodgers bullpen has the ability to luck into a good year. Really, that's all you can ask for.

2006-03-21 12:13:47
132.   slackfarmer
131 "Name a team whose 4th, 5th, and 6th guys out of the bullpen are exciting."

And if you can, I'll name you a team that's spending its money in the wrong place.

2006-03-21 12:15:40
133.   Uncle Miltie
I'm going out to lunch now since it doesn't look like Grits is going to play Guzman or any of the other young guys
2006-03-21 12:19:02
134.   MartinBillingsley31
Guys i agree that money shouldn't be spent on middle relief, but since the starting rotation isn't anything to brag about, the middle relief is going to be relied upon bigtime, and i think we have a couple better options for middle relief that are not going to make the team.

The more solid your starting rotation is the less you rely on middle relief.

2006-03-21 12:21:33
135.   MartinBillingsley31
The umpire is being tough on broxton.
2006-03-21 12:21:35
136.   slackfarmer
134 I've got an idea. Tampa's got a couple of kids that might turn into decent starting pitchers. Maybe we could trade a couple of ho-hum relievers for them.
2006-03-21 12:22:54
137.   D4P
136
Do those ho-hum relievers happen to be All-Stars?
2006-03-21 12:23:20
138.   Jon Weisman
134 - So then the problem isn't a middle relief problem, it's a starting pitching problem and a management problem.

We don't really have options for the starting pitching. What you see is what you get.

We don't really have options for the manager and GM. What you see is what you get.

We do have options in middle relief. And however much the middle relief is relied upon, the starting pitching will still be relied upon more.

I think you have a valid point to make, but you're losing it by focusing on the wrong thing. It's as if you were about to be evicted for not paying your rent and you're saying, "I have a cardboard box problem."

2006-03-21 12:25:54
139.   MartinBillingsley31
138

Exactly, you said it perfect.

2006-03-21 12:28:06
140.   slackfarmer
137 Yep, and what an all-star Carter is.
2006-03-21 12:29:13
141.   MartinBillingsley31
We don't really have options for the starting pitching. What you see is what you get.

Since that's the case, you better use the best in house options for middle relief.

2006-03-21 12:31:34
142.   slackfarmer
138 True enough about starting pitching, manager and GM. But isn't the most telling fact that we don't really have options for owner. What you see is what you get.
2006-03-21 12:33:44
143.   Jon Weisman
Matt Herges loves the Marlins' bullpen.

http://tinyurl.com/mxopt

2006-03-21 12:38:16
144.   overkill94
Am I the only person who thinks our bullpen will be quite solid? Even at 90% health, Gagne is still a great closer, Baez should be a pretty dominant setup guy and occasional closer, and if Brazoban can't regain his form Kuo or Carter seem ready to step into the 7th inning role. Plus, if anyone falters, Osoria seems pretty impressive to me, so he can fill in for any middle relievers should they be ineffective or injured.

The rotation seems pretty solid as well with Perez being the only one not looking sharp so far. I think hitting is the area we should be concerned about, but even then I think we should be above average.

2006-03-21 12:42:36
145.   D4P
Marlins' announcers talking about Choi as one of the finest young men you could meet, and how everyone who meets him roots for him to do well.
2006-03-21 12:42:49
146.   oldbear
Jeff Brantley is a moron.
2006-03-21 12:43:44
147.   overkill94
146 Agreed, since when is Choi a slap hitter?
2006-03-21 12:45:38
148.   slackfarmer
Hey it's Kinkade. Let's see if he gets hit by the pitch -- nope K.
2006-03-21 12:46:00
149.   oldbear
may be guilty of overestimating Ned, I suppose, but if he were as bad as you fear, Martinez and Robles would be competing to be the starting shortstop, not the backup

Signing Furcal must have went a long way for you.

2006-03-21 12:47:50
150.   underdog
144 You're not the only person at all. I don't want to jinx it or get overconfident, but I'm pretty happy with the guys they will have starting the season. (Particularly now that Sele has done us a favor and got shelled today.) Some people just prefer to see the glass half-empty, is all.

Meanwhile, how did the Dodgers climb back to make it 8-6? Didn't listen to hear what happened...

Show/Hide Comments 151-200
2006-03-21 12:50:27
151.   overkill94
150 A string of hits by Alomar, Ethier, Aybar, and Rohan, followed by a SF by Ross off some guy named Messenger. Guzman also singled sharply to RF before Choi K'd.
2006-03-21 12:50:50
152.   Uncle Miltie
I saw the Dodgers "big inning". How did Broxton and Kuo look?
2006-03-21 12:50:51
153.   Vishal
hong-chih wow. he looks filthy.

the only thing is, his fastball didn't break 91 on the tv gun... i thought he threw in the mid-90s?

2006-03-21 12:51:11
154.   King of the Hobos
150 In the 8th, Alomar doubled, Ethier singled in a run (Denker was running, not Alomar), then Aybar singled, Rohan singled in another run, and Ross flew out deep to score a third run
2006-03-21 12:51:26
155.   iluvned
CHOI'S 0-2 AND HE STRIKES OUT AS THE TYING RUN. TYPICAL CHOI. FOLDS LATE. NED IS A GENIUS. hE KNOWS CHOI'S HORRIBLE. CHOI HAS A LOT TO PROVE IN MARCH. HE CHOKED. NOMAR JUST GETTING READY FOR THE SEASON. HE HAS NOTHING TO PROVE
2006-03-21 12:51:37
156.   overkill94
Damn, why didn't Choi get to lead off this inning, we would have had the Resop-Choi match-up.
2006-03-21 12:51:52
157.   bhsportsguy
Middle Relief et. al.,

Right now I think I would send Broxton to Vegas to close and work on his control and 2nd and 3rd pitch. Houlton would go to Vegas to start. Hamulack would be sent down and I would offer Wuncsh either the option to shop around for another MLB team or go to Vegas. Kuo and Osoria would be on the roster along with Gagne, Brazoban, Baez and Carter.

The only way Kuo goes down is if they have any plans to see if he can stretch out to be a starter otherwise he is ready now. I like Osoria right now better than Broxton because I think he needs opportunities to get used to closing or at least setting up and I don't see that if Gagne and Baez are both healthy.

Grady is going to use Carter and Brazoban in the 7th or later, I can see him trying to have either Gagne or Baez fresh (that is never using both in back to back games).

Given that scenario and Kuo showing stamina to pitch one or more innings, Broxton's best place is Vegas for now.

2006-03-21 12:52:04
158.   MartinBillingsley31
All i gotta say about kuo is WOW!

If kuo doesn't make the team, ned and grady are idiots (excuse my language).

2006-03-21 12:52:11
159.   iluvned
HOBOMAN. TELL THEM WHAT CHOI DID.
2006-03-21 12:52:46
160.   oldbear
I think hitting is the area we should be concerned about, but even then I think we should be above average.

There's a serious lack of power in the lineup.

Lofton/Repko in CF. (this could be a black hole)
Cruz in LF--????
Mueller at 3rd. No power here
Furcal at SS--upgrade in power
Nomar at 1st--Drop off in power
Navarro at C.--no power

Its hard to score runs when you cant hit homers. I think the Dodgers are trying to replicate the Angels offense, but honestly its not gonna be as effective bc our pitching is alot worse.

With an average pitching staff, the team needs an above average offense to win. I dont see it.

2006-03-21 12:53:16
161.   Jon Weisman
149 - It went so far as to make me think that Ned doesn't want a roster of 25 Ramon Martinezes. I'm not nominating him for sainthood - far from it. I think I've been clear with my criticisms of the roster construction. But I'm not inclined to say Ned's the devil.

I don't think Ned wants guys like Martinez on the team thinking that veteran leadership will compensate for their .220 averages. I think he thinks they'll be veteran leaders who hit better than that. I think he's wrong. But if he is wrong, I think he will adjust.

2006-03-21 12:53:41
162.   overkill94
155 My age-o-meter puts that one at 13.
2006-03-21 12:53:55
163.   iluvned
ITS NICE TO READ THAT MR. MARTINSBILLINGSLEY IS MORE QUALIFIED TO BE MMANAGER/GM OF THE DODGERS.
2006-03-21 12:55:47
164.   underdog
159 Caps lock off, por favor?

151 Thanks. I guess the Marlins will shoot the Messen... ah, forget it.

Rohan? I keep forgetting he's still around.

Funny, at first I saw "Choi K'd" as "Choked"...

2006-03-21 12:55:59
165.   iluvned
I HAVE TO AGREE OUR PITCHING IS A LOT WORSE. WE WERE MUCH BETTER OPENING LAST SEASON WITH HOULTON, ERICKSON, WUNSCH, CARRARA, AND SCHMOLL ON THE STAFF.
2006-03-21 12:55:59
166.   Jon Weisman
Iluvned: The rules of this site are not to make any personal attacks against other commenters.

I might also ask you to take off the Caps Lock.

2006-03-21 12:56:06
167.   Marty
Here we go...
2006-03-21 12:56:13
168.   Dark Horse
157-I'd say that's an accurate assessment of Brox.

158-I'd say that's an accurate assessment of Kuo. He looks wicked. But I'm not sure I'd mind if they sent him down in order to re-convert him to a starter.

Here come the trolls again, huh?

2006-03-21 12:56:33
169.   iluvned
I HAVE TO AGREE OUR PITCHING IS A LOT WORSE. WE WERE MUCH BETTER OPENING LAST SEASON WITH HOULTON, ERICKSON, WUNSCH, CARRARA, AND SCHMOLL ON THE STAFF.
2006-03-21 12:56:34
170.   Dark Horse
157-I'd say that's an accurate assessment of Brox.

158-I'd say that's an accurate assessment of Kuo. He looks wicked. But I'm not sure I'd mind if they sent him down in order to re-convert him to a starter.

Here come the trolls again, huh?

2006-03-21 12:56:40
171.   MartinBillingsley31
Dodgers.com invasion alert.
2006-03-21 12:57:05
172.   underdog
166 I think he's Garrett Morris' old SNL character who did the sports for the hard of hearing.
2006-03-21 12:57:17
173.   iluvned
I HAVE TO AGREE OUR PITCHING IS A LOT WORSE. WE WERE MUCH BETTER OPENING LAST SEASON WITH HOULTON, ERICKSON, WUNSCH, CARRARA, AND SCHMOLL ON THE STAFF.
2006-03-21 12:57:23
174.   iluvned
I HAVE TO AGREE OUR PITCHING IS A LOT WORSE. WE WERE MUCH BETTER OPENING LAST SEASON WITH HOULTON, ERICKSON, WUNSCH, CARRARA, AND SCHMOLL ON THE STAFF.
2006-03-21 12:57:35
175.   iluvned
I HAVE TO AGREE OUR PITCHING IS A LOT WORSE. WE WERE MUCH BETTER OPENING LAST SEASON WITH HOULTON, ERICKSON, WUNSCH, CARRARA, AND SCHMOLL ON THE STAFF.
2006-03-21 12:59:35
176.   iluvned
MUELLER VALENTIN MULLER VALENTIN MUELLER VALENTIN

I DONT KNOW. THATS A TOUGH ONE. I'LL GO OUT ON A LIMB AND SAY MUELLER IS AN UPGRADE OVER VALENTIN

2006-03-21 13:00:27
177.   iluvned
ANYONE TELL ME HOW CHOI DID TODAY? I KNOW HE'S TRYING TO EARN A SPOT ON THE ROSTER.
2006-03-21 13:01:13
178.   iluvned
Just saw 166. Sorry.
2006-03-21 13:01:49
179.   regfairfield
I guess I should add "Choi folds late" to the FAQ.

144 While I think the bullpen of the Dodgers is solid, I'm less optimisitc about Baez and and Carter than you are. Probably a third to half the teams in baseball (this is a complete estimate, might not be true) have better setup men, and Carter's terrible strikeout rate without any other good qualities makes him basically useless. Still, the Dodgers have one of the better bullpens in baseball.

2006-03-21 13:02:24
180.   Jon Weisman
178 - Thanks. Also, if you want to stay, you need to get rid of the sarcasm.
2006-03-21 13:03:10
181.   oldbear
don't think Ned wants guys like Martinez on the team thinking that veteran leadership will compensate for their .220 averages

He has allowed Martinez, Tomko and Alomar on the team though. For what statistical reason? I cant find any. Ned thinks Nomar's 'veteran leadership' is gonna compensate for his not having an .800+OPS or 26HRs.. Unless you believe Ned really thinks Nomar is gonna best those numbers?

What is Ned thinking?

2006-03-21 13:06:40
182.   iluvned
I hope this doesn't come off sarcastic but could someone please explain to me how our pitching is worse.

In 2005 we broke camp with Houlton, Carrara, Wunsch, Erickson, and Schmoll.

This season Penny, Lowe, and Perez as a whole should be improved.

I'm confident Tomko will be as good Weaver.

Brazoban can't be worse than last season.

Gagne should pitch.

Seo looks good.

Did losing Duaner Sanchez hurt that much?

2006-03-21 13:09:15
183.   Jon Weisman
182 - Much better. Thanks.
2006-03-21 13:09:36
184.   overkill94
160 I can see your point. Just out of curiosity, I'm gonna do a little rudimentary study using last year's slugging percentages for our starters. Obviously it's not that accurate because some home parks are different, players could regrees, and I'm not taking into account platoons, maybe someone else with access to more statistics could do a better job.

Furcal - .429
Lofton - .420
Drew - .520
Kent - .512
Nomar - .452
Cruz - .473
Mueller - .430
Navarro - .375

average SLG = .451

The following is for the 8 guys with the most at-bats from each team last year:

Angels' average SLG was .415
Yankees' average SLG was .482
Giants' average SLG was .400
Dodgers' average SLG was .420 (but the at-bats thing is pretty wacky)

What is my point with all of this? I don't know.

2006-03-21 13:09:45
185.   MartinBillingsley31
c navarro (actually martin would be better)
1b choi/saenz
2b kent
ss furcal
3b nomar
lf guzman
cf drew
rf cruz

A solid bench of mueller lofton ledee aybar alomar (or have both young catchers) choi/saenz.

And when werth returns, i'd trade lofton.

2006-03-21 13:09:58
186.   FirstMohican
I went all the way to Weiland's in Little Tokyo to watch the Dodgers, and I couldn't see one TV from the back. Now I have garlic breath, and I still haven't seen Kuo pitch this spring. Maybe springing for the MLBtv isn't such a bad idea afterall.
2006-03-21 13:10:31
187.   Penarol1916
182. Why do you think Tomko will be as good as Weaver was last year? Could you show some analysis on that?
2006-03-21 13:12:15
188.   iluvned
I don't see how some people can give Depo a free pass for signing Bako, yet criticize Coletti for signing Bako.

I don't see how some people can give Depo a free pass for bring Scott Erickson aboard to be the #5 starter, yet criticize Coletti for signing Tomko. (Who has looked good thus far. I know its spring.)

I don't see how some people can give Depo a free pass for his non roster invitees of 2005, yet criticize Coletti for inviting Ramon Martinez to camp.

2006-03-21 13:12:24
189.   FirstMohican
185 - And when werth returns, i'd trade lofton.

Define "returns."

2006-03-21 13:14:04
190.   regfairfield
182 I think the one error you have is putting Tomko above Weaver. Tomko pitched in a very home run friendly park last year, yet still allowed a good deal of home runs. The last time he was in a home run friendly park, he allowed 35 home runs. He should allow a similar number for the Dodgers. Meanwhile, he strikes out a batter less per inning and his strikeout to walk ratio is 50 percent higher. With his strikeout rate declining as he gets older, you should compare him to Houlton, not Weaver.

The aggregate of Seo and Tomko is probably a wash versus Weaver and Houlton. (Seo is slightly worse than Weaver, Tomko is slightly better than Houlton, at least the 2005 version.)

Other than that, you are pretty much right on (though I think Lowe will put up a higher ERA than last year.) I don't think anyone here thinks the pitching is significantly worse.

2006-03-21 13:14:53
191.   iluvned
No analysis. Just a fastball that hits 95 and a change of scenery.
2006-03-21 13:15:14
192.   PennyJavy
Erickson wasn't suppose to be the number 5 starter. Injuries to Brad Penny and Wilson Alvarez caused that. Also, the team had the option to send Elmer Dessens out there. Imagine if Brad Penny and D.J Houlton get injured, Aaron Sele would have to come in and pitch as the team's number 5 starter
2006-03-21 13:16:21
193.   FirstMohican
188 - Not that this will change your mind but...

As far as I know, DePo didn't get a free pass for signing Bako, and he certainly didn't get a free pass for Erickson (at least not from Jon, from what I noticed).

2006-03-21 13:16:29
194.   regfairfield
188 Bako is strong defensively, Alomar does nothing well.

Erickson cost nothing, Tomko cost eight million.

DePo's NRI's didn't actually push better players off the team. (Whether or not this is the case now remains to be seen.)

2006-03-21 13:17:35
195.   iluvned
post 160 says our pitching is going to be a lot worse. Is this poster way off base?

I can see someone saying our pitching will be a little worse (thats a lie, I can't see a reasonable person saying that), but A LOT WORSE?

Huh? Someone explain that to me.

2006-03-21 13:18:09
196.   King of the Hobos
188 Erickson wasn't really signed to be the 5th starter, he was a NRI, just like Sele (and Lima and Alvarez before him).

Assuming you meant Alomar and not Bako, that's a valid point, but how many people are criticizing the Alomar move?

2006-03-21 13:18:56
197.   oldbear
I don't see how some people can give Depo a free pass for bring Scott Erickson aboard to be the #5 starter, yet criticize Coletti for signing Tomko

Erickson was a NRI. He wasnt brought in to be the #5 starter. It was just chance that he'd make the team, sort of like Ramon Martinez making it.

Brett Tomko is on a 2yrs 9mils dollar contract.

2006-03-21 13:18:59
198.   iluvned
From where I'm sitting I'd rather money bags MCCourt pay Tomko 8 million than Erickson nothing. He's got the money and it doesn't effect me financially. It just makes the team I root for better.
2006-03-21 13:19:07
199.   Steve
Why do dodgers.com posters hate apostrophes so?
2006-03-21 13:19:30
200.   overkill94
I'm really worried about my brackets now, Woody Paige just picked all 3 of my remaining final 4 teams to make the final four.
Show/Hide Comments 201-250
2006-03-21 13:20:21
201.   regfairfield
195 I'm pretty sure he meant a lot worse compared to the Angels.
2006-03-21 13:20:29
202.   oldbear
Assuming you meant Alomar and not Bako, that's a valid point, but how many people are criticizing the Alomar move

I think Russ Martin and Navarro should both be up.

DePo didnt have 2 young=ready to go catchers last year, so he had to have 1 vet.

This year, we have two ready to go. No need for Alomar. Just like there's no need for Tomko, with Billingsley/Houlton being better options.

2006-03-21 13:20:56
203.   iluvned
Let me rephrase. I don't see how some people can give Depo a free pass for allowing Scott Erickson anywhere near the 25 man roster, let alone be a starting pitcher. Forget anything about Brett Tomko.
2006-03-21 13:21:52
204.   Steve
Who are these some people?
2006-03-21 13:23:55
205.   King of the Hobos
195 You misinterpreted "a lot worse." That was a comparison to the Angels, as in our pitching is a lot worse than theirs, yet our hitting is about the same
2006-03-21 13:25:19
206.   iluvned
OHHHH............ I see.
2006-03-21 13:26:38
207.   Steve
He would have gotten away with it too, if it hadn't been for those meddling kids and that dog.
2006-03-21 13:26:57
208.   bhsportsguy
I hate it when I type a beautiful comment and then I lose it when trying to post it. I will type it again but it won't be in the flow like the last one. :)

HSC reminds me of another left-handed slugger whose came up with a high expectations and some baggage that was not of his own creation, he was perceived to have failed and thus was relegated to platoon and part time status and then was sent off eventually to parts unknown (or at least parts in the midwest).

That player was Greg Brock also known as not the next Steve Garvey. This was back in the Al Campanis/Branch Rickey days of a year too soon versus year too late when he piece by piece broke up the longtime infield and other assorted parts of those 1970's and early 1980's Dodgers.

I looked back at Brock's stats and only in his rookie year did he get a regular gig but his problem was although he had great plate discipline, (his OBP was consistently 100 points better than his BA) he couldn't hit (3 out of 4 years his average was .234 or less) and his power never really materialized. I don't recall him being compared to Keith Hernandez or for that matter, Steve Garvey as a fielder and therein lies the rub, he wasn't Steve Garvey.

Now some could say not being Steve Garvey is a good thing (okay Jon cut the sarcasm) but unless you are Mickey Mantle replacing Joe DiMaggio, its pretty hard to be that guy.

HSC will always be associated with DePo and Paul LoDuca, the first being a controversial lightening rod and the second being the "heart and soul."

When players are associated with things beyond their control (replacing icons or being involved in trades that send off icons or worse yet budding superstars, see Paul Loduca and Pedro Martinez), they have a certain baggage that they canning never shed.

HSC could have been a great asset, from all accounts he is very popular with his teammates, participates in the community, respects management and is a hard worker.

But for his benefit and career I hope he gets a chance to get 400 or so plate appearances and see if he is the player that can hit .260 -.270 with some pop and good plate discipline. If not, well then he will be like many others who couldn't progress from his minor league numbers. But I think he deserves a chance, it won't be with the Dodgers.

2006-03-21 13:27:24
209.   King of the Hobos
203 I don't think we're giving him a free pass, and we continually criticized him last year when he refused to dump Erickson earlier than he did. He did good in ST, and we needed a 5th starter because Alavarez and Penny were out, you can't really fault him for giving Erickson a try.
2006-03-21 13:31:32
210.   oldbear
Lofton - .420- I cant see him coming close to this, considering his age.
Drew - .520- I can see this
Kent - .512- Maybe. But again age. Could be a dropoff.
Nomar - .452- I dont see him coming close.
Cruz - .473- He might/might not.
Mueller - .430- Maybe.

I'm just not confident in Lofton, Nomar to be anywhere close to their career SLG'ing. I base this off where they are at in their careers. Kent/Mueller might also drop off at least a little.

Now is there anyone on the team that could do better than their career averages? I dont see any. And that gets back to upside. Where's the guys that have a chance to outperform their career numbers?

Last year, our offense wasnt the best at all. But the good parts we had (Bradley, Choi/Saenz got downgraded) and the bad parts we had (Izturis, 3rd base) got upgraded.

Overall though, I dont see a net gain from the newcomers, but I do see a good chance of a drop off from the incumbents.

2006-03-21 13:31:58
211.   iluvned
I guess you're right 209.

That one poster posts all this Dodger hate nonsene on another forum. It just makes me sick. He thinks the Dodgers are going to have a losing record, Milton Bradley's going to win the MVP, trading Bradley was the dumbest move in 20 years, the majority of Coletti's signing are evil, constant negativity on game threads... It never ends.

2006-03-21 13:33:42
212.   iluvned
oldbear sees a drop off. Go figure.
(Is that a personal attack?)
2006-03-21 13:34:16
213.   oldbear
don't see how some people can give Depo a free pass for allowing Scott Erickson anywhere near the 25 man roster

No free pass here. He shouldnt have been on the roster. Its another example why not to evaluate a player based on spring training stats, while disregarding their recent performance in regular season games. And the Erickson problem goes back to another DePo problem..Jim Tracy. If DePo fires Tracy and forces him to start Houlton instead of Erickson, it would have been better. Not enough to overcome all the other injuries, but still better nonetheless.

2006-03-21 13:34:23
214.   bhsportsguy
I think there is a lot about the 2005 roster that we will never know, what the real ceiling on salary was, how much was 2005 a year in limbo because of the prospects. Also, its not as if there was a lot of player movement once the season started and certainly none around the trade deadline.

The Dodgers were somewhat restricted last year because DePo picked up Houlton and they decided to keep him, that basically made him a swing man but an unlikely 5th starter. Having Dessens and Alvarez in and out also created a situation where Erickson was needed.

And lets face it, its pretty hard to compete when your AAA club is virtually prospect free.

I hope when April 3 rolls around we can embrace the 2006 season and leave 2005 until Depo writes his memoirs and we can see what the hell happened that year.

2006-03-21 13:36:00
215.   Jon Weisman
212 - Yes, it really is. It's snide, rude and completely unnecessary. You are welcome to debate the issues. Making judgments, explicit or implied, about the commenters is not allowed.

I think you can see from above how much better things go when you take the personal hits out of the conversation.

2006-03-21 13:37:03
216.   iluvned
Some of you need to put away the calcualtors and let me tell you some things that are going to happen.

1. Dodgers will win the division easily.
2. Tomko will be solid posting a sub 3.75 ERA with at least 14 wins.
3. Nomar will be just fine. He won't be an all star. But he'll contribute much more than what the naysayers think.
4. Bill Mueller will be everything Boston fans tell us he will be.
5. Milton Bradley won't be missed.

2006-03-21 13:39:31
217.   iluvned
I underdstand, 215. (Unfortunately you've never read his responses to me and others on other forums.) Looks like 216 may have been over the top. I got it now.
2006-03-21 13:41:19
218.   Steve
Unfortunately you've never read his responses to me and others on other forums.

No, no. We count ourselves very fortunate in that respect.

2006-03-21 13:44:39
219.   Humma Kavula
216 "Tomko will be solid posting a sub 3.75 ERA with at least 14 wins."

Sir: I will take that bet.

2006-03-21 13:44:48
220.   iluvned
213 oldbear. You never made one comment prior to opening day 2005 about Scott Erickson. You only did after he sucked. You never once criticized any move initially made by Paul Depodesta.

Yet, basically, every move Evans and Coletti made gets criticized by you. Never once was an Evans/Coletti moved praised by you.

Grabowski/Valentin. You justified those when they happended.

Coletti brings aboard Bill Mueller...and thats bad?

2006-03-21 13:45:04
221.   Penarol1916
216. I liked Bill Mueller as a player when he was on the Giants, but in Boston he was a creation of Fenway, and now he is old. And, while I don't mean to be prejudicial, old people aren't good at anything.
2006-03-21 13:46:41
222.   regfairfield
216 Statements like number two are what create arguments. Predicting Tomko to have a career year as a 33 year old while giving no basis for it and saying that it's a fact are just ludicrous.
2006-03-21 13:46:46
223.   iluvned
218. you are fortunate.

219. Its on. Assuming Tomko doesn't spend more than 15 days on the DL.

2006-03-21 13:48:52
224.   Bob Timmermann
And, while I don't mean to be prejudicial, old people aren't good at anything.

So you wouldn't ask Mr. Burns to join your bowling team?

2006-03-21 13:49:29
225.   iluvned
222 reagrfield. Watch it happen. The guy throws 95. This is his year. Ned knows what he's doing. I trust his judgement.
2006-03-21 13:50:10
226.   Penarol1916
224. I would only allow it if he financed my entry fee while high on ether, unfortunately, I do not resemble to Pillsbury Doughboy.
2006-03-21 13:50:30
227.   Humma Kavula
223 OK, even with your qualifier, I accept. The wager is that Tomko will:

post a sub-3.75 ERA
post 14 wins or more

If Tomko spends more than 15 days on the DL, this bet is void.

At stake... what should it be? I would be happy to buy you a beer if I lose.

2006-03-21 13:51:07
228.   Penarol1916
225. Why do you trust his judgement?
2006-03-21 13:52:31
229.   regfairfield
225 So does Sidney Ponson. He's been able to bring it his entire career, yet he's never had good results. Why would things be different now, in a park that brings out his weaknesses?
2006-03-21 13:52:40
230.   MartinBillingsley31
Watch it happen. The guy throws 95. This is his year. Ned knows what he's doing. I trust his judgement.

That isn't going to get er done.
I love that, get er done.

By the way dodfan2 (dodgers.com name) thinkingblue (dodgerthoughts name) is that you?

2006-03-21 13:52:52
231.   Eric L
222 Especially considering that Tomko has never had a year like that in the past. Or that his "comeback" year (2004), his ERA was only 4.04 (good for a ERA+ of 110).

223 What makes you think that Tomko will have that kind of season? What in his past indicates the kind of success you are predicting? Does his pitching style fit in with Dodger Stadium?

2006-03-21 13:54:41
232.   Jon Weisman
I'm not sure why Tomko gets a free injury pass - isn't injury part of the risk when you sign him?
2006-03-21 13:55:18
233.   gvette
225--"Why do you trust his judgement?"

Maybe because he's kind of old (50?), and old people are supposed to be really, really smart.

2006-03-21 14:01:40
234.   oldbear
You never made one comment prior to opening day 2005 about Scott Erickson. You only did after he sucked. You never once criticized any move initially made by Paul Depodesta.

#1. I always said Houlton should be starting ahead of Erickson.

#2. I criticized DePo for signing Izturis to a 3yr deal AND not going to arbitration again with Gagne.

#3. Its hard to critize DePo at the time moves are made, because there is almost always a statistical backing for each move. There's logic there. With Ned, I see some logic (Acquiring Seo), but also non-logic (Tomko, Alomar, Nomar over Choi/Saenz, Bradley).

I liked acquiring Furcal after not landing Giles. And I liked the Seo move. Most of the other moves I found inconseqential.

2006-03-21 14:03:26
235.   jasonungar05
Power on this roster is a concern of mine.

I think thats why the door is open for Guzman and why I think Choi will make the team.

I do not think that both Ramon and Robles make it.

Even though Choi was the worst player in the history of baseball over the last two years (just joking) he does have 30hr in his last 600Abs which would be

11 less than JD Drew
3 less than Jeff Kent

and
11 more than Nomar.
1 more than cruz jr

And there isnt anyone else to even compare really.

2006-03-21 14:04:25
236.   oldbear
old people aren't good at anything

Pro Golfers reach their peak around 35 dont they? Thats one exception.

2006-03-21 14:05:33
237.   Steve
Oldbear was so high on the Furcal signing I wanted to chase him around to other boards ranting incoherently
2006-03-21 14:06:10
238.   Strike4
233-- "kind of old" has been pushed out to 80, just ask my friends and I. Unfortunately, "kind of overweight" is still the same.
2006-03-21 14:07:36
239.   Uncle Miltie
1. Dodgers will win the division easily.
I don't think so, but they might win by default. The division is that bad.
2. Tomko will be solid posting a sub 3.75 ERA with at least 14 wins.
Other than 126 innings in his rookie year (9 years ago), Tomko has never posted an ERA below 3.75. We'll be lucky if his ERA is under 4.5. He's never won more than 13 games either.
3. Nomar will be just fine. He won't be an all star. But he'll contribute much more than what the naysayers think.
He'll be ok, but likely a downgrade from what we got from Saenz and Choi. I think he'll slug over .450, but don't expect him to approach his career averages.
4. Bill Mueller will be everything Boston fans tell us he will be.
A doubles hitter playing in a Dodger Stadium? Not a good idea. His defense is a little bit above average. He'll be an upgrade over what we got last year. I'm hoping that he'll walk enough where we'll get league average production from him.
5. Milton Bradley won't be missed.
Yea, we aren't going to miss his great defense or big bat at a premium position.
2006-03-21 14:11:18
240.   bhsportsguy
236 - Here is a scary thought, Tiger Woods still has 5 years to reach his peak.

I'm not sure who came up with the age of 28 as the prime age for a baseball player, I recall reading in a John Benson Fantasy Guide around 1989-1990, I can't remember if it was something that Bill James addressed in his abstracts.

I wonder now how much of that is related to 28 being the age that most players are reaching their free agent status?

2006-03-21 14:12:45
241.   Jon Weisman
Steve, with all the back and forth we've had, could you err on the side of not being, um, clever?
2006-03-21 14:13:32
242.   Jon Weisman
241 - "we've" meaning the group in general today, not you and me specifically.
2006-03-21 14:15:34
243.   Vishal
i find it a little ironic that iluvned rails against the depo-friendly crowd for giving depo's moves the benefit of the doubt, yet he is more than happy to do the exact same thing for ned. that's okay though.

anyway, welcome aboard, dude. and thanks for taking off the caps lock and toning down the rhetoric.

2006-03-21 14:16:22
244.   bhsportsguy
Never one to give props to the Giants but Neddy was a part of that front office that kept that team in contention for the last several years, I do think that he does deserve some benefit of the doubt when it comes to the construction of this team and what moves he might make if some of these players don't work out.
2006-03-21 14:22:28
245.   bhsportsguy
I give benefit of the doubt to both Depo's moves and Neddy's moves, not sure if what that makes me but at least I'm not a Plashke.
2006-03-21 14:26:35
246.   Uncle Miltie
Never one to give props to the Giants but Neddy was a part of that front office that kept that team in contention for the last several years
No, Barry Bonds kept the Giants in contention. Let's hope that Ned isn't as bad as Sabean.
2006-03-21 14:28:51
247.   regfairfield
246 At the beginning of his career, Sabean was probably the best GM in baseball. Look at his moves until about 2002 or 2003, their almost all huge steals. Granted, he's basically done nothing right since then, but Sabean's not that terrible if you look at his career as a whole.
2006-03-21 14:29:26
248.   gvette
238-- If 50 is the new 30, does that mean that Julio Franco is really only 28?
2006-03-21 14:35:58
249.   Eric L
247 It's almost Game 6 rocked Sabean as much as did Anaheim Stadium. It does sort of seem like he started making desperate type of moves following the '02 offseason.
2006-03-21 14:40:29
250.   Marty
I'm going to file an ageism suit against a few of you...:)
Show/Hide Comments 251-300
2006-03-21 14:43:04
251.   Xeifrank
By what date should we know if Guzman makes the team or heads to Vegas? vr, Xei
2006-03-21 14:44:16
252.   sanchez101
251. opening day?
2006-03-21 14:45:06
253.   Marty
251 I'm gussing not until sometime during the freeway series with the Angels, if they are still doing that.
2006-03-21 14:51:17
254.   Marty
umm, make that guessing.
2006-03-21 14:58:19
255.   King of the Hobos
The Martinez decision is due next Wednesday, as after that date he can seek a job with another team according to the terms of his contract. The results of Project SMOTheR will soon be known

Also, Odalis threw two scoreless innings today in a minor league game

2006-03-21 15:00:47
256.   Xeifrank
Anyone care to lay odds of Guzman making/not making the team out of ST? vr, Xei
2006-03-21 15:02:45
257.   Uncle Miltie
Funny quote from Little:
"You have to be real careful with legs," said Little. "When they tell me he's ready, I give it three or four more days."
An English teacher would ask Grits if he's saying that Navarro will be ready when his legs say so.
2006-03-21 15:07:38
258.   Jon Weisman
255 - Saw that too - added it in an update up top.
2006-03-21 15:14:22
259.   Jon Weisman
257 - Even if "they" referred to "legs," that could be considered a flourish of personification, not a grammatical mistake.
2006-03-21 15:22:02
260.   Uncle Miltie
I know what you mean, but you never really know with Grits.
2006-03-21 15:22:43
261.   ToyCannon
244
I'm a Ned fan but the only reason the Giants were in contention is because they had the best offensive player in baseball for the last decade. Ned will need to stand on his own as the Dodger GM and so far I like around 80% of what he's done which is up from 50% of what Depo did and I was a fan of Depo. The more telling point for me won't be the opening day roster but what he does to massage the roster as the season progresses. Deciding if Robles or Martinez will be the utility player is fun but it won't add up to one win either way it goes. Same with Ross or Repko.

JtD needs to be the starting LF at some point this season of that I'm certain. How Ned goes about making that happen will be interesting. This bullpen is loaded and we won't be losing many games after we have the lead. Think of the Padre bullpen in 2004 but with better starting pitching. I'm surprised at all the negativity I see here, this team is ready to rock for the next 5 years, sit back and enjoy.

2006-03-21 15:28:40
262.   Xeifrank
I like about 20% of what Colleti has done and I am a big Colleti fan. Compare that to the 80% of what Depo did that I liked.

Personally the roster fight between Robles and Martinez doesn't do much for me. I too would like to see JtD starting in LF at some point this year. I'd prefer he start from the "get go", but that's the fan in me talking. I'd prefer Billingsley be our 5th starter after the first month of the season too. vr, Xei

2006-03-21 15:32:19
263.   Jon Weisman
261, 262 - You guys are absolutely right in how relatively unimportant the 25th man is. Usually, I don't give it this much attention - in fact, in past years I've gone out of my way to get people to downplay it.

For some reason, though, I have found it interesting this year, regardless of its importance.

2006-03-21 15:49:14
264.   dzzrtRatt
Curious to know what anyone thinks will happen when Werth is healthy.
2006-03-21 15:51:36
265.   Vishal
[264] by the time he ever gets healthy, someone else probably won't be.
2006-03-21 15:52:26
266.   oldbear
Hopefully Werth comes back with his power regained, and plays CF.

If his power doesnt come back, he's just another 4th/5th OF'er.

2006-03-21 15:56:31
267.   sanchez101
261. I with you, we should be willing to give Ole Ned more of a chance. I get the feeling that some people dislike him for the same reason Bill Plaske et. al. hated Depodesta; because of what he supposedly "represented" and the circumstances around his hiring and not for his own merits.

I would rather have Depodesta and liked Depodesta's moves more than Colletti's, but go back and look at what we thought Colletti was going to do back when he was hired and what he's actually done.

I just think we should keep minds open until he has at least one season under his belt.

2006-03-21 16:02:54
268.   oldbear
Antonio Perez is doing everything he can to make Oakland. He has a .938 OPS. He's played 51 IP without an error at 3rd/SS/2nd, and has a higher RF, DP's, and PO than Chavez, who's played 54 IP and is a GG winner at 3rd.

I havent seen any A's games yet, but maybe Ron Washington is having a positive effect.

Or maybe AP really wasnt that bad of defensive player here? Hmmm.....He's out of options so its gotta be a lock he makes it.

2006-03-21 16:06:07
269.   iluvned
Hey oldbear/Btte. They're discussing your future over at Dodgers.cc right now.

Are you going to get banned?
Are you going to be allowed to stay?

The suspense is killing me.

2006-03-21 16:06:15
270.   rounding2ndonthe1stdate
On a slightly related note, Peter Gammons wrote an article on the Dodgers farm system, but it's an "insider" read. Can anyone post it? A starving collegiate just wondering.
2006-03-21 16:07:32
271.   iluvned
Here's the link for anyone interested.

http://www.dodgers.cc/index.php?showtopic=1972&pid=124112&st=0&#entry124112

2006-03-21 16:08:41
272.   natepurcell
damnit, i missed the dodgers.com onslaught again.

i should really stop going to class, i miss the best days.

I think we're really going to enjoy osoria, BP had a write up on him today.

hey sanchez, do you think you could post the part on osoria, or sum it up maybe?

2006-03-21 16:08:50
273.   iluvned
268. oldbear

Ron Washington. Isn't he the guy you 'prognosticated' to be the next Dodger manager?

2006-03-21 16:09:26
274.   Xeifrank
267. To me all Colleti has done is rearrange the furniture. He was given a little extra money than the previous person in charge of furniture and has made his way over to Pier 1 Imports and bought many handcrafted items from the exotic lands of Boston and San francisco. Our furniture may look nicer and we may have more in the way of spare pieces in case one of the legs breaks on that new coffee table, but all in all it's no more functional than the previous stuff we had.
vr, Xei
2006-03-21 16:10:11
275.   natepurcell
hey iluvned

no one here cares about oldbear's personal business on other boards. thanks.

2006-03-21 16:10:38
276.   King of the Hobos
269 So you're from dodgers.cc and not dodgers.com? Is that place any more sane than dodgers.com? Nonetheless, I don't think 271 is appropriate
2006-03-21 16:12:18
277.   Steve
Seems like somebody has to be clever.
2006-03-21 16:13:45
278.   King of the Hobos
272 You can at least read it this time (although why you want to see it is beyond me). And this time the poster become rational, outside of some jabs at oldbear
2006-03-21 16:14:21
279.   ToyCannon
268
Did you see what Ellis is doing this spring? Something is in the water. Maybe Oakland can get off to a fast start for once and crush the competition early.
2006-03-21 16:15:46
280.   D4P
277
I know. It's like asking Repko to err on the side of not scrappy.
2006-03-21 16:18:10
281.   natepurcell
aybar and AP are basically the same type of player. keeping both would be redundant. IMO, i think aybar has the higher cieling so they kep the right player.

but incuding AP in the bradley trade was unecessary. at least, get back joe kennedy or something.

2006-03-21 16:22:19
282.   Steve
280 -- If I see one more straw man, I'm going to light it on fire.
2006-03-21 16:23:48
283.   Jon Weisman
iluvned -

After I thought things were cool, you've gone and baited a commenter again. I'm sure there are many readers here who are mystified that I've given you this much leeway. Suffice it to say, this is your last warning before you will no longer be welcome.

2006-03-21 16:33:57
284.   rounding2ndonthe1stdate
I agree. You've been very lenient Jon.

Now, how about somebody forking over that GAmmon's article on the farm system.

2006-03-21 16:36:50
285.   Jon Weisman
284 - Actually, I'm not big on people stealing other people's content to post here, either. Someone can excerpt it if they like.
2006-03-21 16:39:58
286.   rounding2ndonthe1stdate
okay, okay I see your point. Just looking for some reading to pass the time between now and when nearly all are starters are home-grown. That would be so cool. It's either Gammonns or Organic chhemistry. What would you have?
2006-03-21 16:39:59
287.   ToyCannon
281
How was it unneccessary? If he didn't have to include him why would he? It is not like any GM would just give away a player. Aybar will have a much better career then AP. Mainly cause he's younger and already better.JMO

284
What do you care what Gammons has to say? At least 5 posters here no know more about the farm systen then Gammons does.

2006-03-21 16:44:39
288.   ToyCannon
I'd give you the excerpts but he didn't say anything worth noting. Honestly, it was worthless, just a few paragraphs and the only prospect he mentioned by name was Matt Kemp.
2006-03-21 16:46:59
289.   jasonungar05
i saw this excerpt on ESPN today

http://tinyurl.com/fglxg

A look at the top five benches in the game, in no particular order, as the season approaches.

Los Angeles Dodgers
Potential reserves: Hee-Seop Choi, Cesar Izturis, Olmedo Saenz, Sandy Alomar Jr. and Jayson Werth.

GM Ned Colletti's offseason roster upgrades have improved the starting lineup and the bench. Choi has lost the first base job to Nomar Garciaparra, but he retains some value. Izturis has been bumped at shortstop by the addition of Rafael Furcal, but there's talk that when Izturis returns in May from elbow surgery, he'll take over second base. If so, Jeff Kent would then move from second to first base and Garciaparra would go to the outfield. Saenz can help at third or first base. Werth, an outfielder, is a capable role player who can produce when called upon.

---

2006-03-21 16:51:05
290.   rounding2ndonthe1stdate
A roundabout article with no specific names mentioned? I think that's the first time I can say PGammons disappointed me. I was hoping for an indepth analysis (not just stats) of at least the top 7 or 8 prospects followed by maybe a minor history of how many Dodger top 10 prospects have actually made star impact in the big show (This would make sure fans didn't get too excited). But then again, how often are expectations ever met. I can conclude this with a Seinfeld tone of "Thats sounds about right." Thanks anyways for the abbreviated version though ToyCannon.
2006-03-21 16:58:04
291.   oldbear
Did you see what Ellis is doing this spring

He's hit 4HR's but its just spring training I dont expect him to do that this year. I just want AP to make it over Scutaro, although the A's may keep both.

Still hoping they trade for Choi and option out Scutaro. Move Swisher back to OF, DJ at 1st, and Choi DH'ing. It really comes down to wanting Payton or Choi in the lineup. I'd want Choi/FrankThomas platooning.

Swisher is an ok player but I dont think his future is at 1st. I think he'd be much better in LF (at least his bat would be).

2006-03-21 17:04:56
292.   natepurcell
re 291

what about frank thomas? isnt he suppose to DH?

2006-03-21 17:05:16
293.   rounding2ndonthe1stdate
For the record Toy Cannon,it's not so much I think that Gammons knows more about the farm system than anyone on this board or the planet (although he does have more business connections to it), it's just that I enjoy his writing. It has good flow sprinkled with an interesting vocab word or three and tells an interesting story. His speech at his HOF induction was the epitome of that.
2006-03-21 17:08:27
294.   oldbear
292. THats what I meant. Platoon Choi/Frank at DH.

Dan Johnson at 1st.

Swisher in LF.

I just think Choi could help the A's alot more than Scutaro.

2006-03-21 17:13:47
295.   natepurcell
i dont think they are going to platoon frank thomas... of course, i dont think frank thmas is going to be healthy for the entire season either.

tell beane to trade lansford and mazzarro and we can give them choi.

2006-03-21 17:16:46
296.   oldbear
Ned would probably be happy trading Choi for Scutaro. Scutaro is like an infield version of Repko. He's Scrappy Scutaro.
2006-03-21 17:22:06
297.   natepurcell
and beane would be happy to trade a couple of high risk prep pitchers for a power hitting first basemen. choi is like the before breakout version of david ortiz.
2006-03-21 18:10:08
298.   capdodger
286
Go back to the O-Chem. It's probably far more fun than a Gammons speculation article.
2006-03-21 18:14:09
299.   natepurcell
i cant believe the dodger game from today isnt arhchived yet.
2006-03-21 18:23:24
300.   das411
297 - Except Choi would never screw his team over by demanding more $ than they can give him, after his first decent half-season.

So what was the final version of that Guzman for Miggy C deal? And what holes will that leave the Marlins to fill in the inevitable bidding war between the Yankese, Mets, and Tampa Bay for Dontrelle?

Show/Hide Comments 301-350
2006-03-21 18:34:49
301.   King of the Hobos
How did we miss this from today's notes?

"I asked myself, if we opened the season with Atlanta and had 3-2 games every day, will this man be ready to do that, pitch in the ninth inning?" said Little. "In my mind, I say yes, he will. I could see him doing that."

I thought we were done with the rhetorical questions

2006-03-21 18:46:14
302.   Andrew Shimmin
297- Until last year. Ortiz, though, got a full, more or less, year at 26, instead of a Tracy special. I'm sure there are plenty of examples of guys with similar numbers who never ended up breaking out, but still. It'd be really useful to know what Choi could have done over a full year (even platooning). Instead of not; especially given what was gained by sitting him. Somebody should set Jim Tracy on fire.
2006-03-21 18:47:16
303.   fanerman
301 - The Curse of Jim Tracy.

I missed out on this, but what does "SMOTheR" stand for? something momething off the roster?

2006-03-21 18:52:29
304.   Andrew Shimmin
The most irritating thing about Choi, I think (could be wrong), is that if you reverse his 2004 year, have him play like trash the first half, and catch fire in the second, after the trade, Plaschke, et al., would have lionized him the way they did Finley. He would have been a lock starter the whole of 2005, and Tracy wouldn't have screwed with him.
2006-03-21 18:53:33
305.   Andrew Shimmin
303- Smite Martinez Off THE Roster. It is to Ramon the second what BROTheR is to Repko.
2006-03-21 18:55:12
306.   fanerman
305 - Thanks. I knew about the Repko one. Guess they had to adjust the language to make Martinez into a catchy acronym.
2006-03-21 19:00:42
307.   fanerman
304 - The irritating thing about Choi's career in general is that it's one big "what if?" that doesn't have to be a rhetorical question but is because of constant managerial mishandlings.
2006-03-21 19:12:06
308.   capdodger
301 Et. al.
That's somewhat scary, but I see a difference between Grittle and Tracy. Grittle knew he was asking himself a rhetorical question - note that he prefaced it as such. Tracy never seemed to know that he was doing it. His interviews and press statments seemed like an unfiltered dialouge between Tracy and the ideal of Tracy.

Is it a step up? It could be, but we'll have to see how it plays out.

2006-03-21 19:32:20
309.   Eric L
300 Was it screwing over his team? I thought that Ortiz was arbitration eligible and the Twins didn't want to take the chance of having to overpay him in arbitration.

According to bb-ref, he "only" made 300k more in '03 than '02.

I think his "screwing" over his team was more of a problem with the system. The Twins had a couple of options - overpay him (in their mind, because of arbitration) or non-tender him. They chose the latter.

2006-03-21 19:42:26
310.   Eric L
308 Are you saying that Tracy used the Socratic method on himself in interviews?
2006-03-21 19:47:41
311.   natepurcell
finally, dodger game is archived! now i can watch kuo go to work.
2006-03-21 19:56:50
312.   Steve
310 -- The FCC has declared any answer to that question too clever.
2006-03-21 20:08:09
313.   D4P
312
I believe the coast is clear. You may now resume your regularly-scheduled posting style.
2006-03-21 20:44:31
314.   Steve
100 -- Seo trade

0 minus (but we'll be charitable and give it a 0) -- Baez trade

40 (bonus points for the imaginative contract -- but the grade has probably gone down in the interim as well) -- Furcal signing

75 -- Mueller signing

70 -- Garciaparra signing (50 for 1B, 90 for LF, take an average of the two)

10 -- Tomko signing

40 (bonus points for the one year deal) -- Lofton signing

That's 335 points out of 700 -- an average of about 48 points per deal. That is not a complete score -- if Martinez and Robles make the team (I am beyond caring which one of them makes it, as long as only one does) then that is another 0 out of 100. But as long as there are no more Baez trades, then he would deserve some grade quite a bit higher than 50 for keeping some semblance of the minor leagues intact. So he comes out above 50 -- of course, you need 70 out of 100 to get a C, but after the last six years, it's good enough to avoid having a website named after you.

2006-03-21 20:46:03
315.   Steve
Somewhere, a prologue is lost to the ether. Anyway, I was trying to determine what percentage I agreed with Colletti, as was done earlier.
2006-03-21 20:50:29
316.   D4P
Putting the prologue in the epilogue is a bit confusing, but I guess I get it.
2006-03-21 20:53:30
317.   Steve
The prologue tastes like epilogue
2006-03-21 21:16:32
318.   D4P
So, would your Agreement Rating Machine self-destruct if Flanders were to trade Carter (i.e. crappy middle reliever) for (e.g.) Ishii (i.e. crappy starter)?
2006-03-21 21:24:20
319.   capdodger
310

Something like that, but unintentionally.

312 313

It's only clear because I walked away from the keyboard to work Organic Chem problems. I'd come up with something, but alas, my mind is pulped.

2006-03-21 21:30:50
320.   Andrew Shimmin
Tracy sufferred from auto-Socratic asphyxiation.
2006-03-21 21:31:17
321.   Andrew Shimmin
One "R." Oh well.
2006-03-21 22:10:07
322.   Fallout
289. jasonungar0

That article sounds like someone who is just repeating a rumor because he has nothing of value to say. Does anyone really believe that Izturis will go to 2nd, Kent to 1st and Garciaparra to the OF? New rumor: Choi in LF.

2006-03-21 23:17:29
323.   ToyCannon
I like your grading style just not your conclusions:
85 -- Seo/Hamulack - If Sanchez keeps his k/9 rate high as oppossed to his historical levels this trade could go lower but I'm expecting something lower then 2005 but higher then 2006 while Seo gives us 180 innings of 3.95 ball and Hamulack gives us a decent Loogy.

70 - Baez/Carter - I don't consider all relief pitchers to be totally irrevelant and Baez will be better then any setup pitcher we had last year. I also expect him to get flipped for a decent return if Gagne proves he's healthy. Carter will replace Carrera. Bad trade but not without possible future benefits depending on what Ned does with Baez. Just last summer the Tigers netted Polanco for Urbina and Baez is a decent comp to Urbina. Teams like Orioles, Braves, Phillies(Gordon, come on he's died every September), Nationals(Just lost there best setup man for the season), Cards(Izzy's arm is always a bit touchy), WhiteSox(Jenks is setting off alarm bells), Indians(Wickman?) will be looking and we'll have the goods they seek.

90 - Furcal signing, the price is high, but we get a top 5 SS during his peak years and he will be the best SS the Dodgers have had since the early 60's. Some here will get caught up in his OPS being below 800 and fail to give any credit to his speed game which is a mistake.

80 -- Mueller signing, I like Mueller and the combo of Furcal/Mueller on the left side will please Lowe night in and night out. He's what Aybar could become if things break right but not in 2006 and unlike some I think we'll need a player like Mueller during the pennant winning drive.

50 -- Garciaparra signing, If he had signed to play 3b instead of Mueller then I'd give him an 80, but as a 1st baseman this is a below average move. 1st baseman are easy to find and you don't need to spend 6 million on a ??? 1st baseman.

50 -- Tomko signing, he is an inning eater and his ERA last year was .50 worse just because of bad luck. Should expect a WHIP around 1.35-1.40 and an ERA from 3.90-4.20. Not the complete cipher that some have portrayed him here as.

50 -- Lofton signing- given his age if he was signed to be a 4th outfielder it would be okay. The fact that he was signed to be the starting CF at age 39 coming off his best year in the last 5 does not bode well. I don't expect him to be playing CF come Sept.

80- Jeff Weaver - Did not get caught up and sign him to an expensive 3 year deal. Did the right thing and offered him arbitration because one year of Weaver at 10 mill I could live with but not 3 years at 30 Mill.

75 - Ethier - An OF of Drew/Milton/Cruz would be a nice start instead of Drew/Lofton/Cruz but Milton had his chances and now we'll let the Oakland fans fall in love with him for 1/2 a year before he ruins their team. If Tracy/Depo had handled the Kent/Milton problem before it escalated maybe one of them would still be employed by the Dodgers. If Milton had the health history and mental stablity to go along with his production I'd have traded Kent but since Milton doesn't he had to go and at least we got someone who might put up Bradley like numbers by 2007.

63/9 = 70%

So after that breakdown, I guess I'm giving Ned a C- which is much lower then I expected.
This was a fun exercise.

2006-03-21 23:31:59
324.   natepurcell
why was joe beimal reassigned? in 5IP, hes allowed 1 hit, no walks while striking out 5.

he has better numbers then wusnch or hamulack

2006-03-21 23:44:03
325.   Steve
Since I've been fairly clear on most of these subjects, I'll just touch on a couple:

1) Basically agree on Garciaparra -- though it's not at all clear that he'll play all year at first base.

2) I do not at all understand how or why I should expect Brett Tomko to do anything. Brett Tomko has not, in a historical sense, done anything. Now he's, at the least, Jeff Weaver (not that there's much to being Jeff Weaver). I'll take the under on Tomko, and figure that by 2007, we're eating that four million. It's worth 10 points just because he's not Dreifort.

3) The Lofton signing is for one year, and the grade goes up the fewer at-bats he has, and it goes up substantially if those at-bats go to Guzman after the All Star Break.

4) Good point on Weaver. Definitely handled that situation perfectly.

5) I had forgotten about the Bradley trade. Obviously, it was impossible to get back value for Bradley, but as far as what we got back, it was pretty good -- it was not Saarloos. The 75 is curved, but I agree with it. Bonus points if Ethier displaces Repko by the All-Star Break.

So if you add in the two extra "moves," my grade for Colletti goes up again. Without running the numbers, I suspect that we would be in fairly close agreement were it not for the Baez trade -- of course, that is a bridge that will not be crossed. It was a disaster in every sense of the term.

2006-03-21 23:45:32
326.   oldbear
I'd grade Ned like this:
Seo- 90/100
Furcal- 85/100
Mueller- 80/100
Baez- 70/100
Nomar- 65/100
Tomko- 50/100
Lofton- 30/100

Smaller moves:
Martinez- 0/50
Alomar Jr- 0/50
Repko- 0/50
Choi/Aybar not making team: 0/50

Trades:
Bradley/AP for Ethier: 0/100

Total 57%.. Which is failing considering the curve DePo/Beane/Epstein have set.

2006-03-21 23:52:07
327.   oldbear
Obviously, it was impossible to get back value for Bradley, but as far as what we got back, it was pretty good -- it was not Saarloos. The 75 is curved

Do you agree with the Milton Bradley/Antonio Perez for Ethier trade? Or are you taking into account MSM speculation that Bradley 'had' to be traded? The quotes from Ned right after the trade have him taking full responsibility for moving him. Thats why I give him a 0/100.

2006-03-21 23:52:11
328.   Steve
On Tomko, his ERA+ (I assume park adjusted)for his career have been:

125 (in 1997), 97, 92, 98, 81, 85, 79, 110, 92.

For someone who supposedly throws "95" (and apparently, only throws 95) he has an exceedingly low K/9 rate.

His WHIP rate is historically 1.36-1.4, but that still leads to these sub average ERA years.

I understand that Tomko is not getting, say, Eric Milton Money, and so the downside is not quite as down, but I'm not seeing where this translates into actual performances of the type that have been described to me today.

2006-03-21 23:55:14
329.   Steve
I am taking into account that the names being bandied about were Todd Walker and Kirk Saarloos. I am also taking into account that while I recognize Bradley's abilities, I was also generally just tired of his act. That was baseball's version of the Kobayashi Maru, and while it wasn't quite as artful as reprogramming the computer, it at least got back a useful piece.
2006-03-21 23:59:01
330.   natepurcell
bradley had about 5 chances here in LA and blew everyone one of them. I'll miss his on the field hustle but i wont miss his injury proness and his "everyone hates me because im black" attitude.

if you think drew was injury prone, take a look at bradleys season averages.

2006-03-22 00:29:12
331.   natepurcell
guzman with another quote. he can become quite the quote machine. from latimes dodger report on soriano and switching to LF:

"But it's like this. If you are a doctor, you are a doctor. You can't be something else. That's how I feel about it."

2006-03-22 00:44:14
332.   regfairfield
I don't want to study.

Saenz 100/100 can't say anything bad about this.

Furcal 90/100 - Still think it's a little too much money for a guy who made substaintial improvements in a contract year and he isn't that impressive offensively, but he's the best shortstop the Dodgers would have a shot at for the next few years. The contract isn't as restrictive as I thought it would be at the time with the sudden payroll increase.

Seo trade 90/100 - There's a small chance that Wagner will get hurt, Sanchez's K rate sticks, and he suddenly becomes a proven closer driving his value through the roof. Still its a small chance to take for a league average starter to makes nothing.

Mueller 75/100 - I think we'll be lucky if he slugs over .410, but the man can get on base and play defense.

Alomar 50/100 - Pointless move, but doesn't make any money, so it's basically harmless.

Nomar 40/100 - If we hadn't signed Mueller, this would be a 90 or 100, but as it stands we replaced our first baseman with a player who is older, worse, injury prone and makes 12 times as much money. Only gets a 40 because of the chance that Mueller will get hurt and Nomar can move.

Lofton 20/100 - Pointless proven veteran move. When he was signed, it was obvious the Dodgers needed power, and this is about as far away as you can get. Ethier could probably put up similar numbers already. Grade can improve if Werth is allowed to unconditionally replace him upon return, because at least Lofton isn't blocking a younger, cheaper, better player player, but judging by his previous moves, Ned doesn't get the benifit of the doubt.

Tomko 15/100 - He's better than Houlton, how? Will really look bad next year when we need to give Billingsley a rotation slot. At least he doesn't make much.

Bradley trade 10/100 - Unless Ethier makes substaintial power improvements shortly, he's no better than a fourth outfielder (which shows you how much I value Lofton). Losing potentially the second best all around centerfielder in baseball and a middle infielder who can OPS .800 certainly isn't worth that.

Baez Trade 0/100 - Been through this several times. Could easily end up worse than the Konerko trade, and could even be a bigger net loss than the Pedro trade if both Tiffany and Jackson find success (though that's not likely).

So that's 500/1000. Pretty much what I think Ned deserves. He spent tons of money, the team is older, and is at best, slightly better. Potential havoc could insue in 2007 when Tomko and Mueller block Billingsley and LaRoche.

2006-03-22 01:29:52
333.   overkill94
Speaking of today's Dodgers Notes, this one almost made me vomit:

"Hootie and the Blowfish will perform a pregame concert on Opening Day. The band, which has sold more than 25 million albums..."

I want to kill all 25 million who bought their stupid albums one by one.

2006-03-22 01:53:37
334.   trainwreck
Grades
Seo/Hamulack (A-)- I like Duaner Sanchez, but Seo is a starter and more valuable. I think Seo will end up being our third best starting pitcher. Hamulack looks like a solid lefty that will be good in our system, probably in the minors since I would go with Kuo.

Baez/Carter (D-)- I still happen to believe Edwin Jackson is going to be a good pitcher once he calms down and just has one person working with him. Edwin has looked good in spring training for the Devil Rays. Tiffany is a solid prospect who was very good at striking out batters. I believe in keeping as many good pitching prospects as possible. Baez K/BB and K/IP is nothing special and he is just an overrated middle reliever. Do not believe the spring training hype! Lance Carter will remember he is Lance Carter.

Furcal (B+)- Furcal is a good player at his position and is a better player than Cesar Izturis. The fact that we will probably trade Cesar Izturis enhances Furcal's worth because we could get another valuable prospect or player for stretch run. I like the short length of the contract. This signing would have been worse if McCourt had not allowed the payroll to rise.

Mueller (C+)- I dropped Mueller some simply because he does not look right in blue to me. I still remember him as a hated Giant. Mueller is solid, but I would rather have let Aybar take the position for a year and then give it to LaRoche. At least, it is a two year deal. Hopefully, LaRoche earns the job next year and we give it to him.

Garciaparra (C+)- I would have also rather had Garciaparra play third. I would like this deal a lot more if he was splitting time with Choi, but that is not happening. Is it smart to make a guy play 1st base after he is coming back from a groin tear? My hope is that Garciaparra is so motivated he ends up having a decent season.

Tomko (D+)- This guy is not a hard worker and does not seem to listen to coaching. those are two things I do not like. The guy gives up too many runs. My hope for Tomko is that he is at least an average pitcher. Having an average pitcher for your 5 spot is alright. Not all teams are going to look like the A's and White Sox.

Lofton (C-) - As a platoon player he is has value. I would have rather kept Bradley or made a trade for a better center fielder. Kenny is not terrible though. He just should not play everyday.

Either (C+)- I like Ethier. I do not think last year was a fluke for him. I think he is hitting his stride in the minor leagues finally. He will probably be in our outfield next year with Guzman and Drew, then in 2007 someone has to go Kemp. Milton is a good player, but he has major durability issues. Also Milton became far less patient at the plate then he was before (it's what made him valuable). He tries to hit home runs on every swing. Yes, he gained more power, but I think the power would come naturally. I still would rather have kept Bradley though. I would have kept him until Kemp came up. Antonio Perez was a good backup and I rather have him on the team then Robles and Martinez.

Ramon Martinez (F)- The fact that this guy even has a chance to make the team irritates me. I believe in taking the young players with upside over the verteran who has proven he can not hit.

Grady Little (B)- I happen to think managers in general do more harm then good. Little is not a sabremetric, be patient, kind of a manager, but not many people are. His players love him and want to play hard for him. That is the best trade I think that exists in baseball managing. It is why Bobby Cox is so successful.

I guess my overall grade for Ned is a C-. He made one move in the Baez trade that made me really upset, but everything else did not bother me too much. I had pretty much given up all hope of Bradley staying with DePo gone. The Seo trade was easily his best. He gave away a good pitcher, but he got a more valuable one. Flanders started off fine and I really did not have a problem with him. Then Tomko arrived and it only got worse from there.

2006-03-22 07:01:38
335.   tjshere
Bradley is running his mouth again. No shortage of ego here -

"People in L.A. can pick up their paper and see the box scores and see me in them," Bradley said. "Today, they can see a couple of knocks…. I got seven hits last spring training. I've got eight or nine now, so I'm ahead of schedule.

"I know the Giants, the San Diego Padres, the Colorado Rockies will be glad I'm not with the Dodgers anymore."

2006-03-22 08:09:05
336.   Vishal
hah, so when bradley doesn't want to talk to the media, he's insolent, but when he offers a quote, he's running his mouth.

it's fine with me if he wants to use being traded by the dodgers and wanting to prove them wrong as motivation to do well in oakland. more power to him. and why should he (or anyone else) have an ego shortage? most successful professional athletes don't strike me as shrinking violets, exactly.

2006-03-22 10:04:37
337.   tjshere
Sorry. In the future if I post any quotes I'll refrain from adding any commentary.
2006-03-22 11:05:40
338.   oldbear
I doubt Bradley needs any motivation to best Lofton/Repko.

It'll be interesting the media reaction if Bradley has put up great numbers when the Dodgers face the A's. We'll truely see if Colletti has the media in his back pocket then. I suspect not. They'll turn on him just like every executive figure.

Really, Bradley having a monster year would be worse than Beltre having one after leaving LA. BC Beltre makes 13mils a year. Bradley only 3.

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