Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
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TV and more ...
1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
When week-old rookie Dodger outfielder Matt Kemp came up to bat for the first time tonight, the scoreboard said he had two home runs. And soon, he did. It was the next 400 feet of the giant steps being taken by him and the Dodgers.
But thanks to reliever Danys Baez's inability to get anyone out in the seventh, it wasn't enough. The main difference between Baez and the discarded Lance Carter right now is that Baez gets left in longer when he's in trouble.
In truth, though, the only move I didn't get by Dodger manager Grady Little tonight was taking out Odalis Perez after one inning in the top of the sixth, when his spot was due to lead off in the bottom of the fifth. Removing Jonathan Broxton after the subsequent inning, when he has gone two innings as often as he has, might have also seemed strange but was mainly a function of that previous move. Coming after what appeared to be an astute double-switch with Kemp (replacing Jae Seo and Jose Cruz, Jr.) that set up Perez to pitch multiple innings, the quick hook for Perez after a shutout inning was surprising.
Seo, by the way, was throwing strikes early, but seemed to get nervous when he found that his strikes could easily be tattooed. He then struggled with his location, got pinched by the umpires a little bit perhaps, and ultimately couldn't get the job done. He stands to lose his spot in the rotation, though I wouldn't be surprised if things remained fluid for a while longer.
The loss overshadows another flexing of the offense by the Dodgers, who scored six runs even with J.D. Drew mostly on the bench. In his first start (as a cleanup hitter, which seems like a big deal to me mainly because Russell Martin can't even get to the No. 7 spot - otherwise I don't really care), Joel Guzman got a hit and a walk, and made contact with a chance to tie the game in the bottom of the ninth, unfortunately doing the one thing you didn't want him to do - hit into a double play. Guzman wasn't tested much defensively at third, but the big guy (and I mean, big guy - he and Kemp could give half the Fearsome Foursome a run for their money) did come in to field a slow grounder and throw the batter out.
You forget, when so many other things have been talked about over the past 12 months, that not so long ago, the Dodgers were all about Eric Gagne. You forget, until he returns to the biggest roar of the night, even though the team is losing.
Gagne still lands off the mound ugly - when he got his strikeout, he did such a hop, skip and jump he could have been Willie Banks. It doesn't make me feel good. But I guess that's Gagne, and he's back. Welcome back.
* * *
gagne
sammy
broxton
beimel
the rest of them shouldnt even bother to show up to the game.
I'm wondering if anyone can recall the last time a team had so many promising players make their major league debuts within such a short time frame -- and have such an impact on the club's record.
Last years Atlanta club maybe, although I think we're ahead of them at this point.
2.
The problem with only trusting those relievers is that our starters aren't going very deep into games, so if we only use the trusted guys, they're arms will fall off sooner rather than later. Beimel's been great, but I think Jon was right to compare him to Sele. So either we need a couple more trustworthy relievers (the one thing we don't have down in Vegas), or we need some of our starters to go eight innings once in awhile. Even seven innings would help.
WWSH
Broxton should not have been taken out. Grady keeps pitching him 2 innings in 4-5 run lead games. I think Broxton needs to move up the food chain and fast.
Baez should have been a quick hook especially since he was facing the lefty-packed murderer's row that is the top of the Philly lineup. Beimel and Saito should have been up as soon as two guys got on.
But I think the pen is still looking good. How many teams have three guys as strong as Broxton/Gagne/Saito?
Off-topic: I've done this before here, but for the music lovers on the site, I've got more invites to a site called Lala.com. It's a very cool CD trading site that is invitation only for now. You list the CDs you want to receive, and the ones you want to get rid of. And CD sent to you costs $1. It's a great idea; I've been flooded by incoming CDs since I started.
If anyone wants to give it a try, email me at dave@accubar.com and I'll send you an invite.
Perez allowed a couple of guys on base and then visibly bore down. He slowed down and was visibly talking to himself as he made some very affective breaking pitches, and then mixed in unpredictable strings of fastballs. Earlier in the year I was amazed at his craftiness in a fine effort when he didn't have much velocity. Last night he could well have been thinking that he better show something here or he was going to slip out of the plan.
This brings me back to grind one of my favorite axes, but I will try to be brief.
I don't see how baseball survives these long-term multi-mil contracts especially with pitchers, even unproven ones alla Boras.
Maybe a guy like Perez needs a reason to focus his thoughts. I'm going to review his stats and see what got him this contract. Rant over. Sorry
You can be a slightly above average pitcher during an offseason, but if the rest of the pitchers available are all cannon fodder, some team will pay a lot because they figure that the slightly above average guy may help some and won't hurt too much.
It's sort of like going to a car lot and having your heart set on a really nice Lexus. But the Lexuses are sold out. You have a choice between a Yaris and a 1979 Corolla. So you buy the Yaris.
http://noodlearmbilliondollarhamulackwannabe.blogspot.com/
I agree. I'd like to see a one-year contract maximum imposed. I think it'd be good for the game.
One year is still far too long for some pitchers.
I like base contracts with incentives for stellar play.
If that turns out to be the case, I'll gladly accept the loss in exchange for a Baez banishment.
Oh, are we still following that Constitution thing? I had gotten the impression over the past several years that it was no longer applicable...
The MLBPA has far too much pull to allow any monkeying around with salaries caps though.
None Dare Call It Collusion
The Florida Marlins currently have $1.25M in salary committed for the 2007 season.
And that is owed to Al Leiter of all people.
Course not. It's simply a matter of individual choice. There would be obvious incentives to "defect" and offer longer-term contracts, but if you want to risk a Dreifort Debacle®, that's your choice.
To some extent, it would probably only work if every team participated. But I'd still like to see someone try it. If a player is going to perform well for every year of their contract, they really have nothing to lose by signing one-year deals. If you're not willing to sign a series of one-year contracts, that tells me you don't have confidence in your abilities and I don't want you on my team anyway.
Plus, shorter-term deals afford a team the luxury of increasing the per-year salary (see: Fur-kle's contract).
They're for today's game.
Free parking included.
I know I scoffed at this idea initially, but since he's been good down there so far and was good for LA once before, think the Dodgers will call up Carrara for Hamulack soon? and when will they try G Miller?
And how would Seo do in the bullpen?
Tune in to As The Dodgers Turn at this time every week for more.
I'm trying to remember what Professor Kingsfield taught me at Harvard Law when I was a One L.
Sounds like you were too busy chasing papers to pay attention...
See? If every player had a one-year contract, you'd have a roster full of players in their "contract" years, with maximum incentive to commit themselves to staying fit and being productive. I think the quality of play would rise dramatically.
Not always, but too often he's making the old mistake of overthrowing whenever he hits a crisis. In other words, he's pitching like an over-adrenalized rookie. The man just starts chucking fastball after fastball, many of them too high. Had he mixed it up at all on April 30, when he went from very hot to very cold, the Padres would've been toast.
Back when Honeycutt was a pitcher, he understood that it's more effective to go softer when in duress. Baez has the pitches to be fairly good. He shouldn't be this dreadful. But he's got to calm down, back off and mix it up a little. A BP-speed, low fastball is a wonderful escape pitch. His changeup is a good pitch. So is his breaking ball. Sure, you win with your fastball. But you're a dead man if you go from pitcher to thrower every time the stuff hits the fans.
I had trouble seeing in class because I was covered with a shroud.
And the professor gave me a dime to call home, but he wouldn't believe when I told him pay phones were at least 35 cents now.
Ethier LF
Drew CF
Kemp RF
I like that!
However, going forward I think many of us when we see someone like Perez struggling after the long term contract and his obvious problems this year forget that long term contracts, especially when a player is happy can protect a team as well. Earlier in their stay's with the Braves Maddux and Glavine decided to stay and take less in exchange for long term contracts. Bob's point is also key, because it is the market at the time and if a player/agent wants to come to your team. In the case of Perez, I believe he is signed through 2007 with some sort of option year. One should also remember that Perez will only turn 29 this June. I would argue if he turns it around this year and pitches well next year his contract maybe a bargin!
I'm not convinced that players would necessarily leave after one year. One of the reasons they sign long-term contracts (beyond getting guaranteed millions of dollars regardless of how them perform) is to put down some roots, and to avoid having to move all the time. If you play well and enjoy yourself, resign with the team. If you don't play well and/or don't enjoy yourself, it's probably best if you leave anyway.
I think it's out of print so you might need to buy it used or go to your local library.
'Lords of the Realm' is a great book.
It's available in five librarires in the city of L.A.
Downtown, Encino, San Pedro, West L.A., and West Valley (Reseda).
It's a great book for learning how stupid Augie Busch was. And how smart Walter O'Malley was. Marvin Miller has said that O'Malley was one of the few owners who was easy to deal with as he knew what to expect from him. O'Malley wanted to make money and he knew he had to figure out how with the economics of the game changed.
However, he's not in the Hall of Fame, unlike Tom Yawkey, whose primary contribution to baseball was racism and buying free drinks for the writers.
Ranking by Win Expectation above Replacement, Lineup-adjusted:
Baez ranks 268th.
Humulack is No. 273.
(Old friend Matt Herges is dead last.)
In Adjusted Runs Prevented:
Baez is 253rd, while Hamulack is 271st.
(Another old friend, Guillermo Mota, is next to last.)
Leverage is the measure of how important the situations a reliever has been used in are. A leverage of 1.00 is the same importance as the start of a game.
Baez's leverage is 1.38, which ranks 47th.
Hamulack is 81st, at 1.05.
Broxton doesn't have enough innings to rank, but his Leverage is 0.58.
Are we seeing a problem here?
Listening to Baseball Prospectus radio, when they talked about teams paying outside the slot money for draft picks, the Dodgers (under Logan White) are mentioned for their bonuses for Chuck Tiffany and Andy LaRoche.
Kevin Goldstein now believes that it is 50/50 that KC will take Hochevar with the No. 1 pick.
Nate: I have heard that the Dodgers like Clayton Kershaw (as do the Tigers with the 6th pick) and if he is not there, the name I hear is Jeremy Jeffress, any thoughts.
Could Seo's struggles lead to a demotion?
"We'll see," Little said.
Bring on Billingsley!!
Seo was pitching poorly, but was allowed to stay in for 4 innings.
Perez and (to a greater extent) Broxton were pitching well, but were only allowed to stay in for 1 inning each.
I'll be there today in Loge 137, Row D, seats 5 & 6. I know that is close to you so if your bored stop by, I'll be wearing a white turban with a UCLA BLue Tank Top. I've just finished packing my two bags full of frozen water and propel and I'm heading out.
I want to ignore that BUT I TOTALLY SEE YOUR POINT!
2001: #24 Macay McBride (braves bullpen)
2002: #4 Adam Loewen (Baltimore bullpen)
#15 Scott Kazmir (up & coming phenom)
#17 Cole Hamels (up & coming phenom)
#31 Greg Miller (Dodger fans should know his name)
2003: #9 John Danks (top Rangers prospect)
2004: #17 Scott Elbert (top Dodgers prospect)
2005: #15 Mark Pawalek (85 on BA's top 100)
#22 Aaron Thompson (2.33 era in SAL)
#41 Beau Jones (3.52 era in SAL)
#44 Sean West (1.13 era in SAL)
Its still very early, especially for the 2005 picks, but that is an excellent, almost unreal, success rate for 1st round lefty's in recent drafts. I think this speaks wonders for Kershaw's chances.
Mota has given up 8 home runs in about 22 innings pitched this year.
So much for my pick to win the World Series.
I just picked a random midweek game and asked for one ticket and Ticketmaster spit back a $90 seat where the picnic tables are.
if your a basball fan, don't you just love it!!
I'd be glad to have the best available pitcher, whether he's left- or right-handed, although as a lefty I admit that I have an irrational bias in favor of southpaws.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5152
And it wasn't a Seinfeldian contest either.
That gives a whole new meaning to "Lords of the realm"...
Is it ever going to stop raining in New York.
The forecast says it should stop around 3.
Jeffress is about 6'1 180lbs or so with room for growth. he has the best arm strength in the draft and is the only 2nd HS pitcher ever to touch triple digits (he did it in front of tons of scouts in a game in early may/late april including dodger scouts). he probably has the best, most fluid delivery of the prep class and the ball just explodes out of his hand. He is a great competitor, elite athleticism and has good makeup.
BUT, even though his slider shows potential to be a plus pitch, it is inconsitent right now. His change up is a work in progress because he doesnt need to use it to dominate HS competition.
Jeffress has a ton of potential, but he is kind of raw as a pitcher and the organization that selects him will have to take it slow with him.
Would I pick Jeffress at #7? Eh, I dunno. It would be a bit of a reach. I am just praying that Kershaw drops to us.
I want to watch kemp and guzman!
Do you guys on the west coast get to see the game. Well to gameday we go.
I don't see why Fox wants to black out the whole afternoon, they never show a late game
ie. 4pm Est or 1 pm PT
Cruz is also one of the most inconsistant players in the game, last year the DBacks were saying the same things only to trade him and watch him tear it apart for the Dodgers. I think Little will use him until he heats up again (could be June could be September) and then use him in the starting lineup. Also, he's probably a bit distracted with the disappearance of his brother.
I'll take it. Not the best of debuts so far for young Mr. Brito. Sounds like Kemp hit his hard, too.
Stupid long-term contracts...
If Colletti can sign Fasano this offseason and puts a clause in his contract that Fasano needs to keep his 'stache all year, Colletti would be my hero and it would make up for trading for Baez.
tweaked his back.
I've read a few rumors of Odalis and Cruz to the Yanks...probably wouldn't get anything in return, but who cares if they're willing to take the salary.
Kemp is so much better than Lofton. If Lofton was playing CF that would have been a run.
http://tinyurl.com/nlq44
It's too bad, but I don't think anyone would have remote interest in Hamulack ;)
Baez cracks me up...all he does is whine and complain that he wants to close and he CLEARLY shouldn't be closing for anyone.
Someone is going to give that guy like 5 mill per to be a closer next year...and we'll gladly take the draft picks.
He seems to give up a lot of them. It's a factor in his high pitch counts.
Penny has a nice foundation with his fastball and curve, two plus pitches. But if he's going to work deep into games more often, he probably needs to develop his changeup or learn to change speeds off his fastball.
(Delayed reaction because the blog was down for a few mins:) Jose Cruz said "DFA this!" last inning.
Meanwhile, the Mets are winning in the 6th, so I hope they hold that lead and then they call it...
I'm guessing he already has Baez tied and gagged down in his locker. He's very protective of his W-L record, as we all know.
The pinch hitter for Penny indicates to me that he's not coming out for the 7th.
I have a hunch about this ...
This is one of those rule things again, isn't it?
Meanwhile, who's coming in? {shudder}
http://www.lightfantastic.org/gallery/lost
"Matt" "Ke" "Mp"
Hey, Guzman drew a walk, who woulda thunk.
I think the Phillies pitchers will be glad not to have to face him any more this year.
And it's pretty hot in Downtown L.A. today.
And there are strange bugs flying around and I'd prefer not to identify the one that flew into my hair while I was out for lunch. It took about six of us to subdue it.
Wow.
Is this a "Married Person's" Date Night or a "Single Person's" Date Night?
Productive Out(s) by Martin. He moved the runner over!
Guzman is walking, good sign.
I love these prospects.
Please ned, do not trade these prospects, 2007 is looking very good.
It was extra productive because he got two outs on it.
back up! ive had dibs since 2004.
I've been getting about 4 political phone calls an hour all day. It's driving me nuts because I'm waiting for a phone call.
How'd Guzman do on the pivot to throw to second?
Meh, you've had dibs on every player in the organization.
Oh, the wonders!
Time for Cruz/Lofton to be 4th/5th OF'ers.
Repko can play for the 51's when he's back.
Bingo, i agree.
It'd be cool to trade Lofton or have him go on the DL. He's just sort of a liability. Sort of like in 2004 when Werth should have been playing more, but didnt get time until Roberts/Encarnacion were let go. Lofton needs to go.
(/uncle mode off)
Bingo, i totally agree about now and about 2004 example.
Lofton totally reminds me of roberts, and i hated roberts and i hate lofton.
What is it with the dodgers and centerfielders with ABSOLUTELY no power.
Cruz/Ethier could make a nice platoon in LF tho.
Gagne is not pitching today. Saito is warming up.
Is there not a difference between small sample size and hitting streaks? The rookies have been playing in so few games that I suppose there isn't much of a difference right now.
No, its more that Lofton is old and likely to wear down. Its his age that has become ultra relevant.
If Lofton were 24 the attitude would be differing.
And if I only had this year and my own eyes to judge by, Furcal is brutal defensively. He better hit a passal(whatever that is) over Isturiz.
ss Hu
2b Aybar
rf Ethier
cf Kemp
lf Guzman
3b LaRoche
c Martin
1b Loney
sp Billingsley
dewitt. he is struggling a bit at vero. he is hitting for avg but the power hasnt showed up yet.
the 6'4 was his listed height when he was drafted. More often then not, that height is fibbed a bit. the most recent measurements are on milb.com and they have him as 6'2. I believe the 6'2 more then 6'4 he is a big 6'2.
Go to http://www.ncaasports.com
http://tinyurl.com/by8jh
That's the official NCAA baseball Div 1 site.
I run across sites with spoilers sometimes, and the considerate folks who post often use Rot-13 or even Morse, both of which are accomodated by that extension. Do a search at the FF extension page.
Yes I hate Lofton. I hate guys who don't show up on my spread sheets. I only like three true outcomes players.
I did not realize that you were a clairvoyant. I apologize for lying to you. Please forgive me.
If you don't have argument, please don't insult me.
It is not verborhea...
I don't really have a dog in this hunt, except that Kemp should obviously be playing every day, so there's one spot left. Whatever the case, this statement is not a paradox. It may be wrong, but it is not a paradox.
andy laroche has gotten his BA passed the .300 mark with his 3rd inning homerun. he is 2-2 today and his BA is .302
his OBP is north of .400
Birth certificate, defense, and OPS vs LHP.
Kemp should obviously be playing every day, so there's one spot left.
When a LH is on the mound, Cruz should play ahead of both Lofton/Ethier. So that leaves whether to play Lofton or Ethier vs RHP. I'll take Ethier until he proves he cant do it.
Cruz just doenst "look" as scrappy as Lofton.
Also, Lofton's reputation from 10yrs ago still carries some weight.
Paging J. D. Drew to the white courtesy phone...
my room overlooks a river bed and the mountains. my blinds are closed but i hear wind sounds coming from out my window. The sounds get really loud after like 5 mins so i open my blinds to see whats up.
what do i see? A huge dustball coming at me. One minute later, i cant see 20 feet away, theres dust and sand from the riverbed in the air everywhere, things are flying in the air that are not suppose to be and this is the kicker, its raining. I'm in tucson and its 100 degrees outside and my windown is covered in rain. this is insane.
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