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Baseball America Draft Day Blog
First pick: 10 a.m. Baseball America says that according to multiple sources, the Kansas City Royals will take former Dodger draftee Luke Hochevar with the first pick.
10:05 a.m.: And so it is predicted, and so it is done.
10:15 a.m.: The Dodgers take left-handed high school pitcher Clayton Kershaw with the seventh overall pick. The 6-foot-3, 220-pound Kershaw is the first prep player picked this year.
"Considered to be the top high school arm in the draft," MLB.com said, "Kershaw's fastball sits in the mid-90s to go along with a big curve and workable changeup. An oblique injury hasn't scared teams off."
Not scared by an injury risk? Yeah, that sounds like the Dodgers.
I asked Nate Purcell, who studies the draft like it's every final exam he will ever take at the University of Arizona rolled into one, what he thought of Kershaw. Purcell is very high on the pick.
"He is athletic and a competitor," Purcell said. "He throws a heavy, heavy fastball with great late movement - ranges from 90-98 - and a plus curveball, and will only get better as he matures. He shows a feel for his change-up that has a chance to be a good pitch as well. All in all, this is the best (the Dodgers) could have done, and Logan White made Dodger fans proud again. He could even take the (Chad) Billingsley route and be up in LA in three years."
10:30 a.m.: The Dodgers take junior college right-handed pitcher Bryan Morris, 6-3, 175, with the 26th overall pick.
"The Rays' third-round pick from last year, he played two ways in JC and actually broke a bone in his wrist sliding head-first," MLB.com said. "His best offering is a plus, plus curve, though he also has a fastball that can hit the mid-90s."
Said Purcell: "In last year's draft, Bryan Morris was the player I really wanted at 40 until Hochevar fell. The Devil Rays goofed up with Morris and should have gotten him signed. He profiles as a true power pitcher and being from Tennessee, he reminds me a lot of Matt Cain of the Giants. His fastball is plus from 90-97 and his curveball is a true hammer, a 12-6 off the table breaking ball that Baseball America rates as the second-best breaking ball in the college class. I think Morris could be fast-tracked. Starting out next year at Vero Beach and being in Jacksonville by next summer. He certainly has the stuff to do that."
Update: At Baseball Analysts, Rich Lederer writes:
Morris may not be as well known as many college pitchers because he played for a community college in Tennessee. However, he earned Freshman of the Year and Pitcher of the Year honors while fashioning a 10-1 record with a 0.82 ERA, which included a no-hitter vs. Southwest Tennessee and a four-hit, complete-game shutout with 14 strikeouts vs. Hiwasee in the playoffs.
Morris is my type of pitcher. The 6-3, 175-pound RHP has a plus fastball and a power curve. Moreover, the freshman recorded 122 Ks in 88 IP (12.48 K/9) and induced nine groundouts (and only two flyouts) in that Hiwasee shutout last month. He was drafted in the third round by the Devil Rays out of high school last June. The two sides supposedly agreed on a $1.3 million bonus that greatly exceeded the slot money, but the deal was never consummated due to an inability on the part of ownership to pull the trigger. Morris chose to attend Motlow State and join his dad, who is the assistant coach, for one year.
Without seeing him pitch before, I'm still going to give Logan White a big thumbs up on this draft pick.
10:55 a.m.: Leading off the sandwich round with the 31st overall pick, the Dodgers surprise with high school shortstop Preston Mattingly, a son of former Yankee great Don Mattingly.
Preston is 6-3, 205. Speculation at MLB.com was that given the reported low quality of talent in this year's draft, the Dodgers have taken a chance on genetics.
Dodger Thoughts reader Underdog supplied this story from the New York Daily News:
In photographs, 18-year-old Preston Mattingly looks like a teen Donnie Baseball. However, on the field he might be more athletic than his father. Preston was clocked at 6.5 seconds in the 60-yard dash, according to his coach at Evansville Central High, Jason Engelbrecht. One talent evaluator estimated that there are only about 20 players in the majors who would be clocked that fast every time.
"He can run, that's for sure," said Mike Radcliff, the Twins' scouting director who has scouted Preston Mattingly. "He's very athletic, has a real nice frame (6-3, 195 pounds) and you can project him to be strong."
Every team but the A's has scouted Preston, and the Yankees are one of the most active clubs - scouting director Damon Oppenheimer watched Preston two weeks ago.
Preston is "a throwback in this era of specialization for high school kids," Engelbrecht said, because he played three sports. Preston spent the last two summers playing AAU basketball instead of baseball - he does live in Indiana, after all - and even his dad says he's raw.
Still, he hit .478 with 23 extra-base hits and 21 stolen bases in 30 games this season. In addition to his abilities, he wowed scouts with his demeanor.
Ah, character and bloodlines, character and bloodlines. And raw, raw talent.
"He's a three-sport athlete with a gifted bat, plate discipline and more speed than his dad had," Jim Callis of Baseball America wrote. "But though he has good tools, his future position is much in question. No word yet on whether Yankees owner George Steinbrenner has fired any scouting personnel for letting Mattingly get away, but Dodgers official Tommy Lasorda did tweak him after announcing the pick by saying, 'Thank you, George.' "
11:40 a.m.: At Inside the Dodgers, Logan White compared Kershaw to Dave Righetti and Morris to John Smoltz. Given that, you would almost think they should have been drafted in a different order.
The Dodgers' next pick is in the fourth round, 113th overall. So that concludes this morning's coverage!
steve will love this though. at 31 callis has the dodgers taking Tenn closer Sean Watson. LOL, Steve's dream!
The MLB Video feed of the draft is free, right?
yes I think so. I think its on XM radio as well.
Don't need a big MP3 memory or any other features; just want to be able to listen to games and hopefully some more interesting music than the same old Classic Rock I always land on.
The home kit comes with a big uni-diretional antenna; you hook the radio up to your stereo. The car kit comes with a little multi-directional antenna and you play it through your car's radio or cassette player.
Hope this helps.
Does linking over FM work reliably, or is it better to get the XM installed (assuming there's a removable unit or something)?
I have an odd set-up at home -- long story short is that I often use the XM's FM transmitter inside my house. It works REALLY WELL so long as I don't move the XM too far from the FM radio I'm listening to.
All the pluging and unpluging is a minor hassle, and a few too many long wires, but it is well worth it. I can get the Dodger games where ever I am. Even in a cove on the river. Of course my river-going-mates aren't too thrilled when the game is on, but I figure they get to enjoy all the music the rest of the time, so I can be selfish.
Let's all root for Nate to win the Inside the Dodgers draft prediction contest:
7- LHP Clayton Kershaw
26- LHP Kasey Kiker
31- OF Kyler Burke
You mean, all 125 innings they threw in college didn't get them ready for the pros?
it seems my picks will be completely wrong. oh well.
12:46 p.m.: A source familiar with the negotiations says the teams and the players that will be picks at Nos. 2-3-4 have agreed to financial parameters. The Rockies will give Stanford righthander Greg Reynolds $3.25 million; the Devil Rays will pay Long Beach State third baseman Evan Longoria $3 million; and the Pirates will dole out $2.75 million to Houston righthander Brad Lincoln.
--Jim Callis
callis said 2-3-4 have all agreed to financial parameters of predraft deals
1. hochevar
2. greg reynolds (unbelievable shocker to me)
3. longoria
4. lincoln
that leaves andrew miller and brandon morrow for 5 and 6...
its a tough choice, im scared to death of signability concerns with miller I do not want another Hochevar fiasco.
If Drabek's background checks out then I would pick him. But I am not in the know about his background.
I was at the pitchers' duel at Sunken Diamond between Reynolds and Morrow, and Morrow was far more impressive, stuff-wise. Reynolds is a winner, but the buzz was that he doesn't "miss bats" and I would have to agree. But go with the proven commodity, I guess. But wow, if that's worth 3.5M, then maybe 2.98 was too low for Hochevar... Not that I'm saying the Dodgers should have caved...
45 I guess the Rockies didn't learn from the Expos and my old teammate Justin Wayne in 2000...
(drools)
To me, he's a cross btw. Hideo Nomo and Daryl Kile...
Who do we like at #31?
He idolizes/patterns himself after Johan Santana. Sounds like a cool kid.
I love the Kershaw pick! He was the guy I really wanted.
Morris is also a great pick.
Nate who will we take at 31? I like Lars Anderson and Kyler Burke, 2 high school outfielders.
the concerns is his athelticism... he supposebly doesnt have any.
Did you see this from Sickles? -- "No, wait, actually Kiker dropped because I found out what his "makeup" issue is. It is not steroids, and it is not public, and I can't discuss it further unless I get confirmation from other sources, but I take it a lot more seroiusly than I take the makeup stuff with Drabek."
Oh wait, this isn't the NFL draft. Never mind. Zzzz.
Yet he plays baseball, silly scouts....
Nate, how about Colton Willems or Kyler Burke? I really like Burke.
yea i saw that. and i still dont know what to think because no one is telling what the problem is exactly. Kiker would have been nice, but kershaw and morris is an unbelievable haul.
Says Tom Lasorda. (LOL.)
Son of Don. Wow.
Marquess does work his aces really hard. I believe Reynolds has 5 complete games in his last 6 starts, for example. Another recent Stanford ace, Jeremy Guthrie, once threw something like 150 pitches in a super regional game. He was one of the more dominant college pitchers in recent years, and he's basically been a bust, cracking the Indians' bullpen at times but failing to do much of anything.
Still, while questions of overuse seem legitimate to me, Stanford pitchers are inevitably more polished than HS pitchers, and tend to be more so than even most other college pitchers. Can't blame the Rockies, or any team, for taking a guy like Reynolds #2.
Though I think the Dodgers were done with pitching for now and had some questions about him...
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/story/423003p-356998c.html
Padres take Burke....great.
"Preston Mattingly, the son of hitting coach Don Mattingly, could be picked in the third or fourth round Tuesday - the Yankees, the Red Sox and Dodgers are the most interested clubs - and he will probably sign instead of taking a baseball scholarship to Tennessee. Scouts like Preston's athleticism - he was all-state in football as a receiver, honorable mention in basketball and could be named Indiana's "Mr. Baseball" this spring. He played shortstop in high school, but scouts say he's probably would be swtiched to a corner infield spot or the outfield if he goes pro."
For the son of a former batting champion and MVP like Don Mattingly, not to mention a multisport athlete in his own right, shortstop Preston Mattingly didn't get much exposure for most of the spring. He was a well-kept secret among a few scouts, so a lot of clubs didn't get a chance to crosscheck him. An all-state wide receiver in football and a 20-point-a-game scorer in basketball, he has plus speed and is much quicker than his father ever was. He's a 6-foot-3, 200-pound righthanded hitter with bat speed, pop and an advanced approach. The one thing Mattingly lacks is a definite position. For all his athleticism, his footwork and actions aren't smooth, and his arm is slightly below-average. He could get a look at third base or center field, but it's possible that he could wind up as nothing more than a physically gifted left fielder--in which case his bat would really have to carry him. The Yankees, for whom Don starred and currently serves as batting coach, are known to have interest in Preston and signed his brother Taylor as a 42nd-round pick in 2003. Other teams in the hunt include the Dodgers, Marlins, Orioles, Red Sox and Twins, and there may be enough competition for Mattingly to drive him into the first five rounds. He'll attend Tennessee if he doesn't turn pro.
Still, I stand by the rest.
Now I better do some actual work at my real job lest the day get away from me. Wake me when it's the 4th round.
Er, yeah, what 116 said.
everyone thought Dejesus was a signability pick last year but he signed for slot money and is one of the better shortstops in the SAL this year.
125
yes they are the same.
He's a three-sport athlete with a gifted bat, plate discipline and more speed than his dad had.
okay, as long as he can hit, i dont mind the pick. I think White went with the best hitter.
Sam, I find that it really depends on where you are. I have one for my iPod and works really well in most places, including DC. The only two places where I can't find a clear channel to transmit on are the southern section of the Jersey Turnpike, and anywhere within 15 miles of Manhattan.
What about Burke?
he played ss in high school, he is not going to play SS in the pros, but he has enough athleticism that BA thinks he could play CF. He is 6'3 200lbs, so he does have nice power potential.
Maybe White projects Mattingly to be better then Burke? Who knows. What I do think is that this was not a signability pick. we have more then enough money to get the players we want (sans boras clients)
Scherzer's shoulder is going to blow out before he settles into his middle relief role in the dbacks pen.
Seemed like a good kid, but you really didn't miss much.
If anything, he should fairly easy to sign. But I'm really surprised they used this high of pick on him.
Kershaw-- lets just hope he turns out. If he's the best available player, then you gotta take him.
I'm not sure about the other guy they drafted. I had never heard of him.
Skip.
Meanwhile, meet the New Cubs. Same as the Old Cubs.
that was billy rowell and he was left handed. he went #9 to the Orioles. I had Kershaw ranked over him.
158
I like Lars Anderson, he might fall because I've heard he has put a 1 million price tag on himself. If he is there in the 4th, we could dip into the hochevar fund and buy him out of his scholarship. he has big time power.
http://tinyurl.com/rkm2n
I think the Padres made the best and most least risky pick of the 1st round.
I wonder if Jared Mitchell will fall to the 4th round. He is a stud athlete and also plays football. We could offer him a cool million since we don't have a 2nd or 3rd round picks.
Catching abilities are limited since he can't catch pitchers who throw from funny arm angles.
Conger's bat is really special. He is a switching hitter catcher with power from both sides of the plate. I think the question is, will he stick behind the plate? If he does, he becomes really valuable there, possibly turning into a Victor Martinez tyoe player on the offense side. And his name is Choi so thats awesome.
Current count:
5 - "signability"
1 - "tools"
5 - "makeup"
7 - "character"
5 - "plus"
If that phrase doesn't encapsulate this whole draft process...
"he's currently batting .463, with eight doubles, four triples and team highs in runs batted in (30) and runs scored (30)... 17 SB..."
Ummm.... any homers?? Even one???
Stephen King is gone!
Not to reopen old wounds, but this Hochevar thing is just crazy. In addition to the talent we've just drafted, we could have had the guy who turns out to be the number one pick in the whole draft? And we don't because his demands were too rich for us, but apparently not for Kansas City?
Is there a special draft day word for that?
I think it says more about the weakness of this year's draft, than anything else.
Now the question, does his price change now that he's #1 overall? I'd assume this was already worked out prior to the draft.
I would wait until later, some nice players still left on the board.
The Cardinals drafted Tulane's Mark Hamilton in the supplemental second round and might have gotten the best power bat from the college ranks
Did the Dodgers take Mattingly/Morris both ahead of this guy? Why? If there's one thing the organization needs, its a power bat to put at 1st base.
I disagree. Boras wanted a signing bonus of what a top 5 player would get. The teams in the top 5 passed on him bc they didnt think he was worth it.
shepherds still on the board but i dont know if he is the dodgers type of player.
Boras comes out of this looking great. He had his client hold out a whole year, and the guy was still picked #1 overall the next year. Boras obviously knew that this draft class was weak, and told Hochevar he could still do well by holding out. It worked.
But I dont understand why the Royals wouldnt pay him typical #1 overall money? Why wouldnt they?
But this year he's #1 overall, presumably with a deal worked out (why would KC have made the pick if there was still an opportunity for a holdout?).
I'd say he's got a good agent.
I cant remember any top 5 pick going undrafted twice before. Thats phenomenal
If $4M is not competitive to recent #1's, does Hochevar's price tag go up?
I think the top 5 teams in the draft basically said as much when they passed on him last year.
LHP carmine giardina
LHP brandon belt
1b/of lars anderson
OF devin shepherd
RHP jordan walden
RHP dellin betances
He didnt go to Martin/Gagne's high school did he?
Canada's top prospects are all hitters, a good thing for them in a draft short on hitters. A Kentucky signee, outfielder Kyle Orr was beginning to stir up first-round rumors in a draft shy of power bats. While his 6-foot-5, 185-pound frame seems well-suited for the mound, and while Orr has some upside as a pitcher, it's his leverage-generating swing that teams covet. While he has relatively long arms, Orr has a real feel for hitting and generates tremendous power from the left side. Early in the spring, he was showing more power in batting practice than in game situations, struggling with strike-zone and pitch recognition, but he'd started to translate it to games more frequently as the draft approached. Orr's tools profile him for right field. He's a solid-average runner for now (though he'll probably be a below-average runner down the line as he fills out) and has average arm strength. His makeup is universally praised, and one scout compared him to Rangers outfielder Brad Wilkerson as a gritty grinder. He lacks present strength and may need to go in the first round to keep him from going to college. Orr had moved in as a darkhorse to go early as the draft approached, though, so his commitment to Kentucky may not be enough to get him on campus.
http://tinyurl.com/gfdg2 (Callis' final picks)
he player shooting up draft boards as zero hour drew closer was Canadian teenager Kyle Orr, a slugger out of Victoria, B.C. Orr is Baseball America's top-rated prospect in Canada this year, and now people are talking about him as a possible pick at the end of the first round. Orr has been an outfielder and righthanded pitcher coming up as a teenager, though he'll hit as a professional. Scouts think he'll eventually end up in right field or first base. More important, they think he has the tools to be a middle-of-the-order hitter. He has huge power from the left side of the plate and crushes the ball in batting practice. He'll need a lot of minor league at-bats to show that power in games, but in a draft woefully short of impact bats, teams are starting to think Orr might be worth a shot. Orr is committed to Kentucky, and one scout said earlier in the spring--when Orr looked like a fourth- to seventh-round pick--that it would take first-round money to sign him away from college. Now Orr might just get it.
Carmine Giardina or Brandon Belt please in the 5th. both are texas commits.
I'd rather him be a grindy gritter.
But he's from Victoria, B.C. How can a real gamer grow up in the most beautiful spot in all of North America?
its good. Shawn Green did hit 49 homeruns in one season. Even though maybe 10 of those were meaningful he still did hit them!
Maybe the Hochevar money will get will spent after all. Crossing my fingers.
His throw looks kinda funny in his video, makes me wonder how good of a pitcher he was. Seems more suited for 1B than RF if you ask me. He does have a very powerful swing though with that slight uppercut and explosive hip action.
icaros, have you never been to big sur? i love victoria and vancouver island, but big sur gets my vote for the most beautiful spot in north america.
Of course last year I was estatic at this time because we got Luke and at my age I should have known better. This year I'll wait until these boys sign before I get excited.
I haven't been to Big Sur yet, so my proclamation was of some ignorance, I admit.
But I was in this park in Victoria a few years ago and saw the most painfully cute family of ducklings wadddling across a pool of lilly pads. It was like I had stepped into a Disney cartoon.
(in Jean Luc Picard voice:) Make it so.
An Ethier/Orr proposition in the Dodgers' future.
252 Yay! That was me making that horrendous pun. They must have listened!
I'm a little afraid of South America, though. I don't want someone selling my skeleton on the black market.
If only because it fits with the subplot of this thread.
Smit is 6-3 and has a 93 mile an hour fastball. "I'd say there's a slight chance for him to sign," Whittemore said. "I think the odds are in our favor. He's set a pretty high number."
For Smit to sign, it would likely mean a Major League team would have to take him in the first five rounds, which would likely mean a signing bonus of at least $300,000. But Whittemore said he's heard talk that Smit could be taken anywhere from the third to 10th rounds.
WNCC? Western Nevada? Western Nebraska? Women's Network of Collegiate Chocolatiers?
http://tinyurl.com/fje68
blow it up, frame it, hang it, make it your background or whatever.
1 million dollar bounty to buy out his schollie to CAL.
Why do these kids all wear their hats crooked?
I was at CSULB when Abe Alvarez was, and he was the first I'd seen do it (though I guess Dontrelle was already in the bigs by then).
Anyway, I'm now a senior citizen at age 30 because "I don't get it."
Which players did you object to picking? I think Pedroza, Ruggiano, Alexander, and Oreduff have been some of the better players White has drafted.
(Elmer Fudd voice) The howwor. The howwor.
For those who have a better idea of these players' worth, how do you think these two pitchers we just drafted compare to what we might've gotten for Weaver last year had we traded him?
Has Justin Orenduff not out peformed every other 1st rounder White picked with the exception of Billingsley?
Where do you come up with stuff?
This pick sucks more than Gray Davis.
when tommy said lefthanded pitcher, i got my hopes up thinking it was brandon belt :(
I used to know a dude in high school named Garrett White.
The most beautiful spot in North America is Western Brook Pond at Gros Morne National Park in Newfoundland.
Well, that might be a good thing considering White's previous track record of 1st/2nd rd picks. White has had 11 1st/2nd rd picks that he's been able to sign.
An unbiased person would probably rate Orenduff ahead of 7 of them at this point: (Loney,Miller,Hammes,Tiffany, Dewitt, Johnson, DeJesus.)
Behind 2 (Billingsley, Broxton).
And Orenduff is the only college player he's taken that signed in the first two rounds.
Garrett White's video is encouraging, he throws consistent 90-91 fastball. Big Lefty, nice motion, seems like a typical Logan White pick.
Oh, okay. I'll take a drive out there after work tomorrow and check it out.
http://tinyurl.com/o6moz
Have you looked at what Loney has done? Loney has no ceiling. He probably wont be a starting level player in the major leagues. DeWitt has shown nothing. Elbert's doing alright, but not as well as Orenduff did at Vero. Orenduff was 22 when he dominated Vero, and Elbert is 21 this year. Just 1yr differnce. Miller is a reliever thats had multiple surgeries already.
"Ceiling" is just a term that is useless when used on guys that havent done anything (like DeWitt, Loney). Because if someone has the "tools", then that will show up in the stats column. But so far, it hasnt for either player.
You better leave early so you can get in line for the ferry from North Sydney, Nova Scotia to Port aux Basques, Newfoundland.
It's overnight, although during the summer I think they run two of them.
It's probably about a 2-3 hour drive up the West Coast of Newfoundland to get to the park. I went in May and there were no other people in the park. Except there were caribou wandering around me, which I found disturbing. I was afraid they would attack me.
The park ranger laughed at me. But in a good natured Newfoundland sort of way.
Remember, Newfoundland is 4 1/2 hours ahead of Pacific time.
Elbert is 20, doesnt turn 21 until august 13th.
carlos delgado!?!?
Meanwhile, the Giants just took a Pill.
The Dodgers should get a caribou outfielder to go with their bison.
Elbert is almost two and a half years younger than Orenduff, and other than wildness is putting up great numbers at Vero. He was also rated the top prospect in the SAL league last year, and Orenduff is stagnating in AA, so I don't see how you can claim Orenduff to be far superior.
baseball cube is wrong. milb.com has the updated/real statistics stuff.
http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/app/milb/stats/stats.jsp?t=t_ros&cid=457
Baseball America always ranks high schoolers ahead of college players. They are all about tools. Its how Ruben Mateo was gonna be like their next big star.
When people bring into account 'ceilings', 'tools', it just leaves bad impressions of Adrian Beltre in my mind. Or Chan Ho Park.. At some point what you actually have done takes precedence over what someone projects you to do.
Well what has Orenduff done that you find so much more impressive than Elbert?
Orenduff was born May 23, 1985. I wouldnt say he's stagnating at AA. He probably should be pitching at AAA, since his k/9 is still over 10. At some point, maybe a pitcher becomes bored. Ruggiano should also be in AAA.
You are right, I was just remembering his start to the season, nice to see that he has been turning it around. But I still think Elbert has the better pitches and simply needs to work on his control, from everything that I have heard.
Orenduff at VB
ERA- 2.24
K/9- 12.08
WHIP- 1.01
HR/9- 0.45
Elbert at VB:
ERA- 3.05
K/9- 9.01
WHIP-1.27
HR/9-0.65
Orenduff probably started at AA again this year bc they wanted him to get his K's up again at the level, which he has.
you cant compare a 3 yr college pitcher to a prep pitcher. you should know that.
I think I have to have another kid now. Better talk to the wife.
Meanwhile, Bridger Hunt really is my favorite name so far. If he can't play basebally, he's got a future in made for USA channel action movies.
Jedi >>>> Jeb
Who gets credit for signing the non - USA ballplayers. Does that fall under Logan White?
In 340, what are their respective ages?
elbert is 20
370- sounds like a Ned pick "courage and moral character".
http://tinyurl.com/zx8v5
Says he will sign if he is picked in the top 10 rounds.
If I drafted a player that was 18, and he hadnt shown much improvement over his first 3yrs as a pro, I'm probably not going to think much of him. Now that would still only put him at 21. Some may argue he still has time left. But I'm not one that believes just by getting older, suddenly something clicks. Just turning 22 or 23 (aging) isnt going to make you a better player.
Looking at improvement/production as it relates to experience is far more important IMO.
Its the Adrian Beltre paradox. Some are optimistic about Beltre bc he always had age on his side. Others were negative on him, bc his improvement related to experience wasnt good. I was on the negative Beltre bandwagon. I dont care how young a guy is, if he's accumulated alot of pro experience and hasnt improved, he's probably wont no matter how many "years until his peak" he has left.
He was also drafted in 2003 out of high school by the Reds.
372 You're right. It's horrible! They should be drafting selfish, alcoholic criminals. What are they thinking. Character!
http://clemsontigers.cstv.com/sports/m-basebl/mtt/dalessio_andy00.html
His plate discipline got worse as he developed more power. The power is impressive, the plate discipline isn't. 25/55 BB/K ratio is not good.
My question, though vague, was does it matter if a player has ~4 years of low minors experience or 4 years of college when making a comparison like that.
Discovering that there was as much as a 3 year difference in the ages of the players being compared nullifies the comparison, IMO.
1995 - .961 OPS in Rookie ball
1996 - .983 OPS in Low A, .770 OPS in A ball
1997 - .972 OPS in A ball
1998 - .998 OPS in AA ball, .647 in L.A.
1999 - .780 OPS in L.A.
2000 - .835 OPS in L.A.
That's steady improvement for the first six years of his pro career. He did run into some trouble between 2001-2003, but even using your standards, I don't know how you could look at Beltre before age 21 and not have predicted he would be a good big leaguer. And I don't know how you would think there would be no difference between Beltre at age 21 and someone with the same numbers who was 24.
Orenduff pitched in Vero when he was 21-22.
Elbert is pitching in Vero when he is 20-21.
They are 1yr apart if you believe thebaseballcube about Elbert's b-day. They are 1yr 3months if you believe the other site.
Its a perfectly legit comparison but people wnat to bash on Orenduff as if he's expected to dominate Vero, but suddenly if Elbert cant match it its bc he's 1yr younger.
.352/448/.599 6 HR 9 steals (14 attempts) 29/19 BB/K ratio. He might be a sleeper. He did make 13 errors, but in high school he received the best fielder's award.
they are 2 yrs 3 months apart not 1.
At the minors, I look at improvement/experiernce over one's minor league career.
At the majors, that process starts all over. Improvement w)experience.
I think they are both more important thand just looking at a person's raw age.
Any sense on whether any of these three (Walden, Giardina, Belt) would go to the minors and give up on college? I know it would be a hard choice if these were my kids.
nooooooo :(
C
At the majors, that process starts all over. Improvement w/ experience."
your starting to make up your own rules
Okay, I'm really leaving now...
Its basically this:
Beltre had a poor 2002 and got worse in 2003. The people that supported Beltre and thought he was a good player, would point to his age and say "We'll he's only 23"...Others would come back and say "But its his 3rd-4th yr in MLB and he should not be regressing, or stagnating"
I felt the latter. That plays into the example of minor leaguers. Say a minor leaguer has a really bad year at AA, is in his 4th yr in the minors, but is still only 21. To me, thats not acceptable. IF you are in your 4th yr, you should be well on your way to improving. There's no "we'll he's only 21" playing in the AA excuse. If you have sufficient professional experience, it doesnt matter how old you are, you should be expected to perform and improve. If you dont, its probably not ever gonna happen.
"Guys are comparing my son to Milton Bradley and Elijah Dukes," the elder Akins says of Nick, a shortstop who attends his alma mater, Los Angeles High. "He ain't like that.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/news/261587.html
Tell them to get it done, so that we can send them Cruz or Ledee.
"He doesn't have the footwork, the hands or the actions for shortstop and maybe not the range," the scout said. "He does have the best bat speed in my area, and my area is good. He's got 70 raw power, but it's hard to know how usable it is. He's represented by Jim Lentine, which really helps, and you can see he's got a chance to hit.
Here's what a scout said about him:
"He does have the best bat speed in my area, and my area is good. He's got 70 raw power, but it's hard to know how usable it is. He's represented by Jim Lentine, which really helps, and you can see he's got a chance to hit.
"But he's missed a lot of time and he's really raw. Plus, he's been painted as some kind of inner-city black kid thug, and that's not him. He's a good kid who's gotten a bad reputation."
"Nick just has to learn the work ethic that it will take for him to be successful," LaCour said. "He's a nice kid. He's not disrespectful. He has the tools; for him it's about controlling the beast in terms of his swing."
I picked one guy off the top of my head. Don Sutton.
1966, age 21 - 110 ERA+, 8.34 K/9
1967, age 22 - 79 ERA+, 6.54 K/9
1968 - 107 ERA+
1969 - 97 ERA+
1970 - 94 ERA+
1971 - 127 ERA+
1972 - 161 ERA+
I like to see consistent improvement too, but if you are going to throw a player out after a regression, you're going to throw out a lot of good players. Baseball is a game of adjustments.
The thing with Beltre was his appendectomy. It's easy to speak with hindsight now, but the guy nearly died. If you've got someone better, great. But I think you could dismiss some people too easily - taking into account age seems very relevant.
his stats this year:
9-0 0.60era 10g 1sv 58.2IP 25h 4bb 106k
http://www.impactbaseball.com/news_detail.asp?NewsID=17
wow, is the 4bbs correct!??!?!
Take this example of two MLB pitchers:
Pitcher A- (lets call him "Grienke")
Age 20- 4.80 ERA
Age 21- 4.70 ERA
Age 22- 5.30 ERA
Pitcher B- (lets call him "Blanton")
Age-23 4.85 ERA
Age 24 4.30 ERA
Age 25 3.75 ERA
I'd rather have Pitcher B. As you can see, in this example improvement with experience, was more important to me than just one's raw age.
422- sign this guy, those numbers are crazy!
Another high school player, this time a catcher.
Fifteen rounds is my limit, I think.
Q: nate purcell from orange county, CA asks:
what are your thoughts on the Dodger's top 3 selections? How fast can Kershaw and Morris move through the system? Mattingly seems like a suprise, what does his bat project too? Any power potential there?
A:
John Manuel: I've like Morris a lot since last year; I thought he was the top prep RHP in the South, over Chaz Roe and Cody Satterwhite, and I think he'll move quickly. He has power stuff and he's athletic. Mattingly is a surprise in some ways, but it sounds like the Yankees wanted him at 41, and other teams liked him, so a team with extra picks such as the Dodgers could take him, if they don't sign him, they don't sign him. We hear the Dodgers checked in with the Mattingly family to make sure they would have Tyler sign with a team other than the Yankees, and I'd expect he would as the 31st overall pick. He's got a bat that excites a lot of scouts, but his position remains in doubt.
This is appropriate for an org. that has a fairly good complement of up and coming young players. It is suitable if you have a good system for the near future. You have a bit of time to develop some good future players.
Is it Tyler or Preston? I must say, I like the pick better if it's Tyler.
(1) A large-payroll team such as the Dodgers will typically not need to fill more than two or three roster spots per year with rookies (this year being an exception to the norm).
(2) If a team has a limited number of spots for everyday-caliber players, wouldn't such a team rather have one outstanding and one average prospect rather than four average prospects?
(3) Assuming the previous two points to be true, wouldn't it make more sense for such a team to draft younger, higher-upside players than lesser, older college-type talents that might make the majors sooner, but be easily replaceable?
I have read and understand tha math of drafting college players, but it seems to me that the Dodgers would do well (and have done well) with White's strategy of taking a broad portfolio of top HS talent and hoping two of them pan out into impact players. Obviously, taking a top college arm would be nice but you need a top-5 pick to do that, typically, and the Dodgers shouldn't ever be that bad.
Has Danny Almonte been picked yet?
Tell me, would you want $3 million to pitch for the Dodgers, or $4 million to pitch for the Royals?
More often than not, White takes college guys who display little power, mediocre plate discipline, or he'll take seniors with unimpressive numbers.
5.93 ERA, 30.1 IP, 17 K, 14 BB
(1) The HS/College mix a team chooses in a given draft should depend on that team's own circumstances and organizational strategy rather than a generic league-wide picture (of course league-wide data about draft picks such as Dr. Jazayerli's series at BP should be examined when making these decisions).
(2) I suspect it's possible that the cost to acquire a Major-League player on the open market who will perform at the same level as a mature 2nd-5th round college draft pick is less than the cost of signing the draft pick PLUS the opportunity cost of a missed high-ceiling HS player that may or masy not pan out.
Of course, there are a lot of assumptions all around. I'm just throwing ideas out there for discussion.
Also, any sense on whether Jordan Walden will sign with the Angels or go to Texas?
On Hochevar, would you rather have paid him $3.5 to $4 million than pay that same amount to either of our first two picks today. White's ego cost us a good player.
- J. Molina walked
- J. Molina to second on S. Kazmir's throwing error
- A. Kennedy singled to right, A. Kennedy out at second on pitcher S. Kazmir's throwing error, J. Molina scored
(Deal... or no deal? Can you picture Luke trying to make the decision with Boras in the designated family area trying to speak over the crowd?)
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