You can use the link above too but the notes Jon refers to also state that the Dodgers are close to signing Kershaw at around $2.3 million and that he and Morris will start at Ogden while Mattingly is going to start at Gulf Coast League.

http://tinyurl.com/lcm6y

1

I think those are logical starting places for those 3 players. If Morris and Kershaw hold their own, I can see both of them starting 2007 in Vero Beach with Mattingly coming up a bit slower at Columbus.

From the last thread re: Akins and what he is asking.

I dont know what Akins is asking, maybe his coach will give insight on that soon. But he is an LA kid and it might be a dream come true to play for the Dodgers. If he doesnt sign this summer, I could see him going to JC and we can sign him as a draft and follow.

The GCL seems like the obvious place for Mattingly considering Juan Rivera and Jesus Soto should be the dp combo in Ogden and Mattingly's future position is still an unknown.

As for Morris and Kershaw, lets hope they dominate like Billingsley and Miller did. Both Billz and Miller had sub-3.00 ERA's in the Pioneer league, which seems like a miracle, with more than a K per inning. Both went on to Vero Beach, Jacksonville and top-5 prospect rankings a year later. If they struggle though, its no big deal, Elbert did fine after struggling in rookie ball.

What a dream season. 1st place and all the prospects you could possibly hope to see.

2 Akins has a scholarship at SDSU so he needs to be signed this summer. Logan White said on XM radio on Friday that they will follow his progress this summer but they need to see him play more baseball. But he said that Akins was one of the best athletes in the draft and they will be watching closely.

Either, Kemp, Broxton, Guzman and Aybar - If you had to trade one, who would it be?
My choice: Guzman. Can't put my finger on it, but I'm not impressed.

Age, in descending order
Ethier - 24
Aybar - 23
Broxton - 21
Kemp - 21
Guzman - 21

6 I wouldn't want to be in the position of having to trade any one of those five. I think it's too early to give up on Guzman. He's only 21, and suffers by comparison to the others, who have either had previous MLB cups o' coffee (actually, I'm assuming Ethier had at least a September callup with the A's) or an unbelievable debut run (Kemp).

6 - But that's not how you look at it. Putting aside that I don't want to trade any of them, the question isn't who would you trade if you had to?

If you think Guzman is the least valuable, then probably other GMs do, too. And therefore, they would give you less value in return.

I'd trade Ethier because his ratio of current value to probable future value is more out of whack than the others. I don't see him becoming anything more than a good fourth outfielder. Right now is likely the highest his value will ever be.

7 No, Ethier didn't play last year. And of course, neither did Martin.

But I agree with your general point that it's way too early to give up on Guzman just because he didn't knock our socks off in 15 at bats.

8. I agree. The real questions is do you consider trading Kemp. Presumably he is way over valued right now. I'm not advocating this but there probably many a GM salivating at the thought.

5

I know he has a scholarship to SDSU but he can still go to a JC. in the last thread, I posted comments his HS coach made and there were suggestions he should go to a JC, increase his draft stock and sign for more money as a draft and follow.

BTW, this may have been part of another thread but I took special pleasure in the Giants losing 3 of 4 to the Giants.

6- how other GMs's/scouts would probably rank them:
1. Kemp
2. Guzman- only because Broxton is a reliever, still very young and raw
3. Broxton
4. Aybar/Ethier- hard to say. Neither of them are a scouts dream. I think Aybar will have the better career. Scouts really seem to dislike Aybar though.

We don't have to trade anyone of them, but if the right offer came around (a young stud starting pitcher) then I wouldn't mind trading Guzman since we have some depth in the outfield, LaRoche and Aybar at 3rd, and 1B is one of the easiest positions to fill (we also have Loney in AAA)

no one is getting traded. ever.....!!!!!

13. Supposed to say "Giants losing 3 of 4 to the Pirates"

In order for me:
Loney
Ethier
D Young
Orenduff
Broxton
Navarro
Guzman
Aybar
G Miller
Kuo-still think he'll become a starter someday
LaRoche
Martin
Billingsly
Kemp

OMG we have alot of talent. We shouldn't cry if we ship some of it for some starting pitching. I'm not saying I want to trade any of them just the order in which I'd do it provided the booty was sound. The last 3 should be untouchable. Kuo should be higher up the list to be traded cause of his multiple surgeries but I have a soft spot for him so I hope he remains a Dodger. This is just AAA/AA and doesn't even include some decent prospects like Hu/Ruggiano/Abreu/Alexander from AA.

a good question is... who gets the boot if Billingsley gets the callup? Chad isnt on the 40 man roster yet.

15 -- What about Baez?

8 - Well, I'd argue that Guzman's value for other teams would likely be higher than his value for the Dodgers simply because the Dodgers don't have as significant a need for a player in the positions Guzman would be playing.

He's been at 3B, but the Dodgers don't seem to be lacking in 3B talent. Aybar's been playing well, and LaRoche has been much better after a cold start to the season. His defense is supposedly suspect at SS, and I have a hard time seeing him displace Furcal from that position anyway.

He could try going back to the outfield, where he played at Las Vegas, but I'm not so sure the Dodgers couldn't do well with their combination of prospects and current talent. Kemp and Drew are pretty stuck at least for the moment - though it'd be hard to imagine Kemp not falling off at least somewhat - with Lofton, Etheir, and Cruz a serviceable group to take up the 3rd slot, not to mention Repko (who hopefully will return from the DL and pick up somewhere close to where he left off, though that is of course nowhere near guarenteed).

Plenty of teams could use a 21-year old AAA-level 3B prospect with an ability to hit for power. Even the Dodgers could, really (like it's been said above, he's young and still has a very high ceiling). I'm just not so sure that the Dodgers couldn't get more value for him (with regards to current team needs) by including him in a trade package.

nate, what does your 2008 world champion dodgers roster look like (just the starting lineup and the starting pitchers). Here's mine:
C Russ Martin
1B Free Agent (I think Loney will be traded)
2B Aybar
SS Fookie
3B LaRoche
LF Bobby Abreu :)
CF Matt Kemp
RF J.D. Drew

Zito
Penny
Lowe
Billingsley
Matt Clement/Jon Lieber/Brian Lawrence/maybe Elbert

17

and with the draftees, morris and kershaw automatically are in our top 5 pitching prospects based on talent alone :)

Steve,

15 only applies to the "diaper dandies"

Baez is what resides in diapers.

Which reminds me, Nate, with Baez not saving games this year, will he still qualify as a Type A and get us the two draft picks? Do we have to offer him arbitration to get them? Explain to me how this works out so we lose Baez and get draft picks and don't run the risk of paying him again.

6,9, The folly and the fun of making trades with hot prospects. I agree with Jon about trading the prospects. BUt assuming we need another starting pitcher, which I believe is the most pressing need, who do you think we could get.

21

c russ martin
1b *miguel cabrera
2b willy aybar
ss furry
3b andy laroche
lf andre ethier
cf matt kemp
rf jd drew

*navarro, guzman, elbert and garret white (lol) are the sacrifices.

18 They will likely move Ledee to the 60-day DL to create a 40-man spot for Billingsley. If they did that he would still be eligible to return on July 2, which is much sooner than he will be able to play anyway.

They could also do the same with Mueller (would be eligible to return July 12), Navarro (July 5), or Repko (July 10).

oops i forgot pitchers

penny
zito
lowe
billingsley
greg miller :)

24

he just has to be in the top 30% of relief pitchers in the rankings by MLB and thier weird formula. He most likely will just have to keep his ERA relatively decent and win some games here and there. the rankings are based on the previous two years of work so his 41 saves or so from 2005 would still come into play. And then we have to offer him arbitration and not do anything else; just let some other idiotic team sign him to 5 yrs 50 million. Then we give Logan White 2 draft picks.

24 "Which reminds me, Nate, with Baez not saving games this year, will he still qualify as a Type A and get us the two draft picks? Do we have to offer him arbitration to get them?"

I'm not Nate but the answers to your questions are 1) Maybe, and 2) Yes.

FA's are typed using a proprietary -- and ridiculously bad -- statistical formula invented by Elias. You can never tell what wacky stuff it's going to spit out at the end of the year. But in any case, to get the picks you gotta offer arbitration.

I've been seeing a lot of sentiment, in this thread and others, for trading Navarro. Are we really so sure that Martin will be the better player?

Navarro was really coming on until he got hurt, and he's only had 75 ABs this season. In other words, say Navarro has one 3-5 night, 1 HR like Martin did against the Rox in the 9-12 loss (hardly out of his range, though he's probably not quite as much of a power hitter as Martin is):

His stats would then look like - .300/.385/.438. Will he do so his first game back into the majors? Probably not. I'm simply noting that he's had few enough at bats that one good game (or bad game, for that matter) changes his profile significantly. Both he and Martin are very young, and I'm not so sure I want to trade either of them. Maybe it's just my faulty memory, but aren't catchers relatively high-risk in terms of injuries?

im guessing that if Quantrill can be rated a type-A guy setting up Gagne for two years, that Baez will. the system includes more than just the previous season, and Baez saved 40 games last year. i thought, and still think, this is the saving grace of the Baez deal, we could very possibly get two first rounders and the way Logan White drafts, those kids will should be more valuable than Edwin Jackson or Chuck Tiffany are now. Just as an example, Im not sure who I'd rather have Morris+Mattingly or Jackson+Tiffany.

26- completely forgot about the Miguel Cabrera trade, but Garrett White? Are you really willing to give up on someone with his immense potential? He has a chance to become a dominating LOOGY like Tom Martin.

33

In due time, Garrett White will take the "best left handed relief pitcher that is not a closer" crown from Joe Beimel.

Re: 32

But don't we run the risk of Baez accepting arbitration? The Colorado crew yesterday talked a lot about this blow saves, so I think he's lost the trademark Closer distinction.

WWSH

Hah: "15. natepurcell no one is getting traded. ever.....!!!!!"

What a joyful comment.

Fromt the last thread, Bosco's OK, but I'm a Fox's U-Bet through and through.

A blurb on Cole Hamels from Capitol Punishment: "Cole Hamels got knocked around a bit, but this is a kid to watch. He was unable to throw his big, slow curve for strikes, but if he had, wow. His slider is nasty, freakin' nasty, tying up Nats bats inside. His fastball was in the 92-94 range, but because of the control problems he had with the curve, the Nats were able to sit on it, leading to their runs."

I'm a great believer in the idea of trading potential for proven major league ability. I think that is the greatest advantage in having a strong farm system. I also do not think any of the baby blues have been around long enough to be considered proven.
However, that being said, I don't think we really need to do anything right now. Even our seemingly shakey pitching is in the top five in team ERA. One more good starter would be nice. I think that's why they're bringing up Billingsley now. That gives us six weeks to see what he can do before the trade deadline. If he's successful I'd be happy filling the other two spots with any combination of Sele/Perez/Tomko/Seo unless someone wants to bend over backwards to give us a top-line pitcher.
One of the things I liked about Depo was his willingness to make a big deal to get something we really needed. After years of needing a main course and getting a side of Mulholland, it was nice to see someone pull the trigger. But it is also a stregnth to know when to do nothing at all. I hope Ned has that strength.

Joel Guzman would have the most value to the Dodgers if they just converted him to 1st base and kept him there. (Well actually the most value would have been to keep him at SS).

But right now, the Dodgers have lots of depth at 3rd and while not alot in the OF, still enough.

Its at first base where the Dodgers are barren. Guzman has alot more upside than Loney. I think the Dodgers should make Guzman a fulltime 1st basemen at Vegas when he goes back down there.

34 From the sound of it, Wunsch will do that in a couple days.

I found this a little troubling:

The Dodgers sorely need a No. 5 starter. Neither Jae Seo nor Odalis Perez has been effective.

Wouldnt it make the most sense to drop Tomko from the rotation? Odalis Perez is at least capable of being above average. Tomko hasnt shown that in his career.

What do you all think of Nomah's future with the team if he continues to play as well as he has and reamins healthy. Wasn't he signed as a FA for just one year?

42 Nomar is only signed for this year. If he doesn't hurt himself this year or tail off significantly, I'd like to have him back on a 3-year deal. I have no idea what the market will be like for him, or if he'd give us a "hometown discount", or if he'd be willing to have significant PA incentives in his contract like this year. My guesses to those would be: at least $10M/year, no more than $1M/year, fat chance.

But if he keeps it up, it would be ridiculous not to at least try to resign him.

(42) Yes, he was. Problem is, if he continues hitting like he is, it will take big bucks to bring him back next year. And if his hitting falls of a lot in the remainder of the season, we won't want him back next year. I agree that Guzman's best chance with the Dodgers is at first base; he should be put there and continue his hitting development. Loney is going to be a first baseman with a good OBP but little power. I think he might have potential as a center fielder but others have disagreed. What we think isn't relevant anyway...

What happened to the Toaster last night, around midnight PDT?

45
Beats me I was asleep, but some stuff gets updated automatically around then.

14-

What don't scouts like about Aybar? The guy has a great approach at the plate. If the scouts don't like Aybar, I don't like the scouts.

47 - He's below average on defense, little power, and seems to get an inordinately high number of ground ball hits (as evidenced by his team-low line drive %, and relativiely high BABIP).

If there's a guy to sell high on, it could be Aybar. Not that I don't love the guy, and would like to ride out whatever lucky streak the guy may be on so far in his big league career.

Scouts hate it when you hit .300 without their permission

This is a wonderful problem we have
As much as I tend to be overconservative about trading, we probably will have to make a move or two. Not ness. prospects, mind you. I just hope the org. understands the advantage we have. We don't have to make any merely even trade unless we want to.

I liked Izturis but I feel its time for him to move on. Things are looking good and I feel he will only be a disruption to our team chemistry.

I advocate 2 things for Izzy. I don't feel we'll get anything in return for him.

1) Trade him for a no name prospect. A Henri Stanley type.

or

2) If it didn't cost us anything I would have no problem throwing him into the scrap heap ala Choi.

51 - Do either of Boof Bonser or Scott Baker qualify as "no name prospects"?

Those would be two guys from Minnesota I'd want.

I suspect Izturis will probably end up in Boston ala Dave Roberts type of player-to-be-named later deal (by the way, who WAS that player to be named later in the Roberts deal?).

As far as sending away one or two of the crop, I agree that we should be able to manage with what we have. If Billingsly works out well, and Sele has a reputable second half we should be okay first through the sixth.

From the sixth on it's all in Grady's hands, no matter who we put in the pen. If he continues to not use the lefties he hands in any type of spot situation (Wunsch notwithstanding) and isn't really able to figure out the NL game, then it won't matter if we have Rivera in the pen.

53, meet 51.

Boof Bonser isnt a no name prospect.
He was the Giants #1 pick in the 2000 draft.

I'm not really sure why the Twins would want Izturis. They already have Juan Castro. Acquiring Izturis would be like giving Castro a 4mils dollar raise.
Izzy's been in the majors since 2002 so I'm not sure if he has options left. But the easiest thing would be to either just keep him in AAA. Or bring him up and dump Lucille.

The Twins have a history under Gardenhire of giving lots of playing time to good-field, no-hit middle infielders like Castro, Cristian Guzman, and Luis Rivas. And Izturis, although the same basic type as Castro, is clearly an upgrade over Castro both offensively and defensively. So the Twins might be interested.

I personally would be very happy with an Izturis for Scott Baker deal.

By the way, do we have an official nickname for Russ Martin yet? Because after learning his middle name, I think I'm going to be calling him "Trane" from now on.

I like it because it has a double meaning thanks to plays like that takeout slide against Jamey Carroll the other day.

55 - Castro will be 34 this month, and has never had a .240+ eqa in a season. He is a wonderful fielder though.

Izturis is 8 years younger (26), a better hitter, and would most likely have a chunk of his salary covered in the deal.

57 - Short for "Blues Trane?"

57 - I've gone with "Russ Almighty". I think that's a fantastic nickname.

>>From the sixth on it's all in Grady's hands, no matter who we put in the pen. If he continues to not use the lefties he hands in any type of spot situation (Wunsch notwithstanding) and isn't really able to figure out the NL game, then it won't matter if we have Rivera in the pen.<<

I'd really rather Little NOT follow the "NL game" in using situational lefties, simply because they're left-handed. I still remember Tracy trotting out an ineffective Tom Martin in 2004 to face lefties, simply because he was left-handed. Match-ups are important, but more should go into determining them than the handedness of batter and pitcher.

WWSH

61 - He's done a pretty good job using the double-switch though, which allows him to use relievers for multiple innings. This strategy should be that much more effective when the bench is strengthened with healthy players.

Off topic, but bad news in Pittsburg

http://tinyurl.com/hp3hx

seems like jon is almost wishing for someone to get hurt

Penny & Lowe, then pray for snow!
vr, Xei

Oh, a thursday or friday start for Chadingsley? Finally, someone coming to their senses. Hope he sticks in the rotation. I don't think we can hold on to first place without him. vr, Xei

64 - Nope.

Is the team traveling to Oakland next weekend, or are the A's coming to L.A.?

68 - @OAK.

Short new post up top.

What has happened to the Angels? They can't catch the ball, won't walk and their "clutch" hitting has dissolved. Now I read that Erstad may be starting in center when he comes back this week. That's insane.

Everything has fallen apart for the Angels. Pitching, hitting, and defense. Some days the pitching is passable, and remarkably the hitting is OK some days. But they haven't been able to be consistent.

I think it is karmic payback for 2002.

55/56

although izzy would be an upgrade of the castro/punto duo, i think the twinks are still hoping jason bartlett will pan out as their ss. in addition, i don't see them giving up baker, especially with bradke retiring after this season.

Now that I can post again, here's my defense for why I might part with Guzman.
(Note: I am not giving up on JtD, nor am I suggesting he should be traded. My question above was a hypothetical. Also, I should've listed Martin, Navarro and C-Bills, too.)
My concerns with Guzman:
1. He's a man without a position, and I can easily see him turning into a lumbering LF/1B type.
2. For a player carrying a reputation of parking-lot power, Guzman doesn't hit that many home runs - about 1 every 29 at-bats or so. Kemp's HR/AB ratio is better, and LaRoche's is far more impressive.
3. He's still struggling with the strike zone.
4. He doesn't have much speed.
Eric Enders: Ethier was my second choice, as his age (compared with the other rookies) gives me pause. He might be the next Ricky Ledee.

61-It's one thing to use a situational lefty robotically and quite another to never use them as Little's penchant seems to be. It also alters the mechanics of that pitcher (hence the Kuo/Hamulack/Biemel triology of terror)and can adversely affect them overall.

62-He always seems to play for the double switch keeping pitchers in way longer than needed to get that hitter up. This has pernicious effects on young pitchers primarily, or other pitchers who simply have no defined roles, which is what I think has happened to Carter and Baez especially.

I perceive that Grady has great difficulty going out to the mound (oh, you think?) which is either due to his lack of comfort managing (time to go to work) from the sixth inning on, or he has been traumatized from Game 7 ALCS.

Time to get somebody up in the pen.

75 Good points.

Grady does seem to dislike warming up more than 1 reliever at a time. He also waits way too long to replace a pitcher hoping that he can get out of the inning by himself. This often leads to big innings (Baez, Biemel, Broxton several times so far this season) and making it almost impossible to come back. He needs to adjust his strategy from his AL days where the DH allows him to make less moves.

Um, Jon,

If the moves you suggested up until the Izturis callup the roster would be

Pitchers: Lowe, Penny, Tomko, Sele, Billingsley, Saito, Baez, Broxton, Kuo, Seo, Perez, Wunsch

Position Players: Furcal, Lofton, Nomar, Drew, Kent, Aybar, Ethier, Martin, Cruz, Kemp, Martinez, Saenz, Alomar

Sending Seo (the pitcher with the best chance at actually improving) down in favor of Izturis would reduce the staff to 11 pitchers, not 10.

Personally, I'd really rather see Navarro in there than Alomar. Navarro has been more effective with Brett Tomko and Odalis Perez in starts than has Martin (even if that is just luck), while Alomar is essentially needed as a coach. Alomar, though, hasn't been as good with calling games, and he's not holding up but so well physically. Navarro may spend more time in the minors, but I see Alomar hitting the DL and ultimately retiring (perhaps becoming a full-time catching instructor) soon enough. The Dodgers want to be able to showcase Navarro, and he'll hit the trade block, with a backup catcher likely coming by way of spring training non-roster invite.