Baseball Toaster Dodger Thoughts
Help
Jon Weisman's outlet
for dealing psychologically
with the Los Angeles Dodgers
and baseball.
Frozen Toast
Search
Google Search
Web
Toaster
Dodger Thoughts
Archives

2009
02  01 

2008
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2007
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2006
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2005
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2004
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2003
12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

2002
09  08  07 
About Jon
Thank You For Not ...

1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with

False Staff
2006-06-20 11:19
by Jon Weisman
Note: The Dodger Thoughts blog has moved to the Los Angeles Times.

The chart below isn't meant to draw any firm conclusions, but to add some information to the discussion of the Dodger starting pitching problems. It does nothing more than answer the question, "Of the total innings thrown by a team's starting pitchers, how many of those pitchers currently have ERAs below 4.75?"

For example, for the Dodgers, Brad Penny, Derek Lowe, Aaron Sele and Chad Billingsley have ERAs as starting pitchers below 4.75. Their innings as starters add up to 231 2/3, which is 59 percent of the 392 2/3 innings thrown by Dodger starting pitching.

The 4.75 cutoff was chosen arbitrarily, to represent a figure below mediocrity but above incompetence (though these ERAs are not adjusted for park-effects). Basically, I wanted to know how many starting pitcher innings have been thrown by pitchers that, overall, have been bad.

Team Starter Innings Starter Innings Below 4.75 Pct.
San Diego417 1/332577.9
Cincinnati431 2/3314 2/372.9
Atlanta413275 2/366.7
New York407 1/3279 1/368.6
San Francisco44027362.0
Colorado42527264.0
Houston419 2/325959.6
Pittsburgh404 2/325563.0
Arizona401 2/3253 2/363.2
Florida382250 1/3 65.5
St. Louis408 2/3238 2/358.4
Milwaukee412 1/323557.0
Los Angeles392 2/3231 2/359.0
Washington 417220 1/352.8
Chicago373130 2/335.0
Philadelphia393 2/39323.6

The chart reveals that the Dodgers are 14th in the National League in total starter innings (meaning they're going to the bullpen more than most teams), 13th in starter innings thrown by sub-4.75 starters, and 11th in percentage of starter innings thrown.

Not surprisingly, pitcher-friendly San Diego ranks at the top of the charts - even with Jake Peavy clocking in off the charts at 4.81 - but check out such teams in hitter-friendly cities as Cincinnati and Colorado near the top. Considering that the Dodgers (along with Washington) play at a fairly friendly pitchers park, you can see how badly they compare to their rivals.

Basically, while every team could do better with its starting rotation, you're not wrong if you thought the Dodgers were suffering more than most.

But, woe is Philadelphia. Woe.

Comments (141)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2006-06-20 11:30:42
1.   Bob Timmermann
On Saturday night, the Dodger pitching staff almost heard the chimes at midnight.
2006-06-20 11:41:25
2.   dsfan
Relative to the Dodgers, San Diego's ranking has little to do with home ballpark. Look at Chris Young. He's much better on the road than at Petco. San Diego has better pitchers. They don't have any clunkers in their rotation -- no slobs like Perez, Seo or Tomko.
2006-06-20 11:48:24
3.   Jon Weisman
1 - Dang, that was clever.
2006-06-20 11:48:32
4.   dsfan
San Diego's road ERA is 3.81, its road ERA is 4.04. San Diego's pitching appears considerably better than that of Los Angeles. This isn't a Petco prop.
2006-06-20 12:02:04
5.   Bob Timmermann
3
Thank you. I can come up with about 1/100th of the Shakespeare jokes that Ken can.
2006-06-20 12:03:55
6.   Daniel Zappala
This is why I'm a fan of contraction. Combine the Padres and Dodgers and you'd have one fantastic club. Contract the whole league by 1/2 and think of the glory days we'd have. Yeah, I can dream ...
2006-06-20 12:07:53
7.   natepurcell
anyone think the braves are going to sell this deadline? Specifically Hudson or Smoltz.

Hudson might be easier to get because his control is rather big.

2006-06-20 12:16:09
8.   Bob Timmermann
6

Would a merger between the Dodgers and Padres require us to take Ted Leitner and Matt Vasgersian along too?

2006-06-20 12:24:25
9.   underdog
And would they be the Podgers or the Dadres?

I do prefer my stadiums to not be named after cat and dog supplies chain stores, however.

2006-06-20 12:26:18
10.   ToyCannon
7
They have never had to do it under the current regime and the last quotes I heard from their GM was that weren't sellers and they hope to have a solid rotation next year of Hampton/Hudson/Smoltz/Davies/James. Counting on Hampton coming backs seems pie in the sky and Hudson is no big deal these days and Smoltz will be really old. I think he's crazy not to deal Hudson or Smoltz if he gets a good offer. I think Smoltz on our team could be a difference maker in the playoffs.

What is scary about Jon's numbers is that Sele constitutes a good chunk of the good IP. While we can expect Billinglsy to at least beat the 4.75 we all know going forward that Sele won't so unless OP or Seo or he who can't be named step forward pitching is still going to be a problem. I'm still a believer that any or all of those 3 can turn it around but I'm starting to sound like a polyana given the performances. At some point I have to shut up and realize that they all suck but I haven't reached that point yet. I mean I wasn't expecting world beating performances just league average from Seo and that who can't be named but the fact that they can't even give us 4.50 work just leaves me shaking my head.

2006-06-20 12:28:17
11.   ToyCannon
9
Why do both those names make me laugh.

If McCourt was to sell Dodger Stadium naming rights which company would you want the rights sold to? I'm partial to "Yahoo Stadium" or the "Blue Apple":)

2006-06-20 12:32:18
12.   Sushirabbit
7,10
I'd take Smoltz in a heartbeat. Not so sure on Hudson. I think my hope for Tomko and OP precolated to long and have now turned into bitterness.

Don't know if anyone else is getting fed-up with spending money and not getting the games you want to see, but saw this second article on the ridiculousness of the MLB blackout rules: http://tinyurl.com/h5p9p

2006-06-20 12:38:51
13.   Daniel Zappala
8 They would take the best of both teams, so clearly those two guys are out of work.

9 They would stay the Dodgers, but they would actually have good pitching.

Which owner would they have? Hmmm...

2006-06-20 12:41:35
14.   Daniel Zappala
12 I find it really odd that in Salt Lake City the Diamondbacks games are blacked out, when it's a horrendous drive from here to Phoenix. At least I don't live in Vegas, or I'd never get to see the Angels and Dodgers as much as I do.
2006-06-20 12:53:54
15.   thinkblue0
why do almost all GM's wait until the deadline to make a deal? I'm not saying we should make some panic trade here...but it's pretty clear we need some pitching. The games in June count just as much as those in September.

I always get a little weirded out around this time in the season because teams start to decide if they're buyers or sellers....a simple losing streak could make any GM make a panic trade and I don't want that to happen to us. I guess I just find it bizarre that teams almost feel as if you can't trade until the week leading up to the deadline....I don't want any panic trades, but it'd be nice to get a pitcher in here ASAP so we don't have to sit through the agony of a Seo/Sele/Perez performance.

2006-06-20 13:00:36
16.   blue22
15 - What's the incentive for the other team to trade so early? Most teams are still technically "in it", so they may be holding out hope of contending themselves.

At the very least, though, they can jack up the price as the bidding war starts in July.

Ken Williams did bring in Freddy Garcia at around this time a few years back.

2006-06-20 13:15:11
17.   Bob Timmermann
Looking at the standings, I think that there are 11 teams in the NL with realistic playoff chances. Everybody but Washington, Florida, Atlanta, Chicago, and Pittsburgh.

I think there are seven in the AL: Detroit, Chicago, Boston, Texas, Oakland, New York, and Toronto.

2006-06-20 13:16:07
18.   Bob Timmermann
Left this out.

So I think there are 18 "buyers" and just 12 "sellers."

I'm no economist, but I think that the demand outstrips the supply.

2006-06-20 13:17:15
19.   Linkmeister
15 Prices are always high when the doors to the first shop open. As more stores open, the prices are likely to fall. At least, that's what my Econ profs used to tell me.
2006-06-20 13:19:51
20.   thinkblue0
well I'm thinking about pitching that might be available and I know Maddux has been thrown around....are the Cubs really going to get a lot for him? I mean seriously, he's a league average pitcher at this point...I just don't see them being able to drive up the price.

Other than Maddux, who is out there? The pitching available this year is really thin.

All I know is that when Tomko/Sele/Seo pitches I'm in the fetal position for nine innings.

2006-06-20 13:23:49
21.   underdog
SI.com's Albert Chen seems to think the Braves will be "sellers" before the trade deadline:

http://tinyurl.com/hntby

2006-06-20 13:23:56
22.   Josh G
First post here, though I have been following DT for a while now...

Do you think there is a chance, if the Dodgers were to fade during the next month or so, where we would be in the position of seller, unloading veterans like Nomar and Lofton to a club geared to "win now?"

2006-06-20 13:26:35
23.   underdog
Btw, I'm one of those that thinks of the three-or-four "stooges" Seo is the most likely to bounce back and contribute solidly. I liked his "stuff" in that loss to the A's Saturday, even if he ultimately got the L. I really think he'll improve and help. I have a little less confidence in Sele, though I still think he can contribute, and even less in Perez at this point. Tomko's gonna be Tomko, which means some great starts and some bad ones, but I expect him to be on an upswing again soon (perhaps naively). With Billingsley around now, plus Penny and Lowe, it's either Seo, or a pitcher to be acquired who will make the difference. IMHO.
2006-06-20 13:27:57
24.   Bob Timmermann
The Dodgers would have to fade a lot for them to become sellers. It doesn't seem likely that they would be out of contention by the end of July. The NL West is too balanced this year.

The Dodgers didn't sell off anyone last year although that was in part because the NL West was so bad, it was hard to ever say that anyone was "out of it."

Welcome Josh!

2006-06-20 13:28:11
25.   underdog
22 Welcome!

And my opinion? No. I don't expect the Dodgers to fade enough in a tight division to start unloading, and particularly can't even conceive of a scenario that has them deal Nomar.

2006-06-20 13:29:46
26.   Gagne55
Smoltz might be out there. In his interviews, he sounds like he wants to become the next Doyl Alexander.

The Marlins have nobody (Willis ain't going nowhere), the Nats could trade Livan but probably won't, The Cubs have Maddux and I'm sure they'd trade Wood if anybody would be willing to take him, the Pirates have a few guys (Torres, Vogelsong, Perez) but none are really any good. The Devil Rays got nobody, nor do the Orioles or Royals. I doubt the Twins will trade Radke and Loshe is just as bad as OP and worse than Seo.

2006-06-20 13:30:54
27.   JoeyP
I checked the Dodgers site and they still havent updated it concerning Izturis.

I'm wondering who gets sent down?

2006-06-20 13:31:20
28.   Marty
Welcome Josh. I don't see the Dodgers fading enough to be sellers. My biggest fear is that they will fade just enough to be panic-buyers.
2006-06-20 13:32:30
29.   Gagne55
22 No, but Repko's return could (hopefully) get Lofton traded for a prospect or reliever.
2006-06-20 13:33:12
30.   JoeyP
Panic-buyers, especially after facing a tough July schedule (Cards for 7 games) is what concerns me the most also.
2006-06-20 13:34:38
31.   blue22
29 - I think Repko is most likely to replace Cruz (based on his right-side dominance), one way or another.

Like it or not, Lofton finishes the season in LA.

2006-06-20 13:34:45
32.   Gagne55
27 He'll be taking Martinez' role, but Martinez can't be sent down. Aybar perhaps. Also somebody must come off the 40. Here's to hoping for a "Dodgers DFA Lance Carter" headline.
2006-06-20 13:35:40
33.   Gagne55
31 Either way, a veteran is getting traded.
2006-06-20 13:36:17
34.   Uncle Miltie
Jon are you going to write a story on Beltre before the game? Out of all the Beltre articles I've read so far, this one is my favorite:
http://tinyurl.com/q79x7

Lots of quotes from different people including message boards (not sure where they dug those up from)

This one shows what a scumbag Boras is:
"Boras was never going to let him come back to L.A.," said a source familiar with the negotiations. "He had like seven prime free agents that winter, and he knew where he wanted everyone to go. If the Dodgers re-signed Adrian, they wouldn't have had the money to sign J.D. Drew, and Boras wanted Drew in L.A."
This is what I've been trying to say. Boras never let's his players give "hometown discounts" and always forces them to test free agency rather than exploring a contract extension before their season is over. I'm anxious to what's going to happen to Andruw Jones when he becomes a free agent.

The one thing I didn't like about the article:
Drew hasn't done much for the Dodgers, missing most of 2005 because of a sore knee and a broken wrist, but Beltre, despite some recent flashes at the plate, has been a disaster in Seattle.
This guy must have been expecting a ton out of Drew. I'm a little dissapointed with how Drew has performed this year (he's not walking as much), but he's still been an excellent player.

2006-06-20 13:38:47
35.   Bob Timmermann
34

Who is Matt "Money" Smith and why is he an expert on the Dodgers?

2006-06-20 13:40:34
36.   blue22
33 - I should say that Cruz and Repko are fighting for the same roster spot. Nothing says Repko replaces Cruz.

Maybe Repko stays in Vegas for awhile, until the roster shakes itself out with an injury, a trade, an Ethier/Kemp dropoff...

2006-06-20 13:42:16
37.   blue22
35 - He was the Sports Guy on KROQ in the am, and has moved on to be the straight guy on the AM 570 drivetime show.

He also does pregame for the Lakers on radio. If anything, he's more well-versed in hockey.

2006-06-20 13:43:15
38.   JoeyP
The question is, did he play for a contract or did he turn the corner?" a Mariners executive said early in the free-agent period. "All the information indicates he turned the corner."

LOL....I'm still surprised that so many make excuses for Beltre's subpar play. It is so blatantly obvious, apparent, what have you that 2004 was just an anomaly. Is it because Beltre's is a nice, quiet unassuming guy that no one throws the steroid accusations his way? If there's ever a poster boy for someone that was enhanced, its him. Why cant those in the media just call it like they see it? 20,20,20,20,20,48,20....One of these doesnt fit.

2006-06-20 13:43:16
39.   gibsonhobbs88
Personally I don't think Smoltz would move out to the far west, he seemed to have an eye toward his hometown of Detroit on his interview on Baseball Tonight. I was also hoping at least Seo would turn it around. Last year with the Mets he seemed to have the breakthrough that he could be very effective. It's still the same league so I don't see where he would have had that much trouble adjusting. Maybe he can have a good surge in the 2nd half. OP and Tomko have become unreliable and Sele, we knew he would be good for about 6-10 starts until the league caught up to him again, then his ERA would begin to soar. Best we could hope for is that Penny, Lowe, Billingley can shoulder most of the load and that we can get something worthwhile from Seo/Tomko/OP in the second half.
2006-06-20 13:44:22
40.   herman
We should get Dessens back. I think he can be had for a cheat price. That would strengthen our pitching.
2006-06-20 13:45:14
41.   blue22
said Josh Segal, who runs the fan Web site dodgerblues.com

Is this the outing of DodgerBlues guy?

2006-06-20 13:46:11
42.   Jon Weisman
34 - No, I won't be doing anything on Beltre today. My most recent Beltre piece was in November.

http://dodgerthoughts.baseballtoaster.com/archives/283436.html

For the most part, it holds up.

2006-06-20 13:50:02
43.   Jon Weisman
38 - "... no one throws the steroid accusations his way"

I'm confused by this. Plenty have thrown the accusations his way. In fact, despite Beltre's denials, I can't think of too many players over the past two seasons who have been accused of steroid usage more than Beltre.

For what it's worth, I don't think fluke seasons were invented by the steroid era.

2006-06-20 13:53:11
44.   JoeyP
I think its funny how back in 2001, everyone was saying how the "Ball" must be juiced. Turns out it was the players. What a lost year....
2001:
Bonds- 73HRs
Luis Gonzales-57HRS (career avg 24)
Rich Aurilia- 37HRs (career avg 19)
Paul Loduca- 25HRs (10,7,10,9 since)

I think baseball owes an apology to Jose Canseco. He was right.

2006-06-20 13:54:46
45.   Marty
Are southern California fans famously fickle? I don't think I agree with that.
2006-06-20 13:56:37
46.   Josh G
Thanks for the nice welcome.

As a followup to my original thought, I wonder if a trade of Nomar, though few see it happening, would be a good move for the Dodgers. I would argue that few here consider the Dodgers, with their current pitching staff, likely to make it deep into the playoffs. Considering Nomar's resurgence this season, coupled with his injury risk, unloading him now while his value is at its highest might buy us quality pitching prospects closer to the majors then Kershaw and Morris. Plus, given the depth of talent that could adequately fill first base in the years to come, a contract extenstion for Nomar that would be considerably more than the $6 million he took this year seems like a dubious investment.

2006-06-20 13:57:06
47.   JoeyP
43. I've seen more bogus stories about Beltre not hitting because he's homesick (I mean come on, this is ridiculous), than stories about steroid use. I've seen the "Who's to say" argument when referencing Beltre, more than steroid use from the media.

Maybe the media just likes Beltre, but doesnt like the other potential steroid abusers. But so far I havent seen many media stories about Beltre's potential steroid usage, but I've seen numerous stories about Beltre's homesickness in Seattle. That doesnt sit well IMO.

2006-06-20 13:57:12
48.   Bob Timmermann
44
I think attributing every fluke power season is as bad as associating crimes with people of one ethnic group.

There is a whole matrix of issues that are involved in the game of baseball. And if you think that one thing is responsible for them is a lazy way of thinking.

2006-06-20 14:00:37
49.   JoeyP
If one season is so out of whack, and there's testimony from players detailing that a certain percentage of players were on the juice, I dont think its stretch to just say 2001 was completely ridiculous.
2006-06-20 14:01:43
50.   Marty
Just read the bottom of the article linked to above to see a bunch of fluke seasons by players. Davey Johnson was juiced!
Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2006-06-20 14:03:36
51.   Bob Timmermann
49

That is a very broad brush you've got there. Very broad.

And it's unlikely you're going to see things any other way, so I will drop this.

2006-06-20 14:04:07
52.   Greg S
46 I respectfully disagree. I don't think there is any reason to believe the Dodgers won't go deep into the playoffs. In fact, I think they are one to two pitchers away from having an excellent chance. And those 1-2 pitchers are obtainable given the depth of the orginization. No chance whatsoever that the Dodgers will trade Nomar or any other current contributor as I see it.
2006-06-20 14:04:22
53.   Bob Timmermann
Billy Grabarkewitz was juiced too!
2006-06-20 14:05:21
54.   Greg S
BTW, don't be surprised to see Kent go back onto the DL. Maybe even tonight with the Izturis move.
2006-06-20 14:06:03
55.   Jon Weisman
47 - I agree that Beltre has had a lot of defenders, but again, how many players have had more steroid accusiations than Beltre?

Short of giving Beltre the Bonds treatment, what do you want exactly? As much as you want there to be, there isn't proof of Beltre's steroid use. There's circumstancial evidence (changes in stats, in how far he hits the ball, in his weight), which has been reported endlessly. There hasn't been a month since May 2005 that has gone by without people wondering about Beltre and steroids.

I agree that there's no more evidence that change of scenery has had an effect on Beltre any more than possible steroid usage. As much as people want to dismiss one argument or the other, we have no conclusive evidence either way.

So what do you want?

2006-06-20 14:10:36
56.   Greg Brock
I think Beltre had a huge year because of the bone spurs in his foot, which made him unable to overstride, and forced him to stay back on balls and hit them the other way. That, and the steroids.
2006-06-20 14:13:00
57.   s choir
46 It doesn't make sense to trade Nomar. Even if the Dodgers can't re-sign him, they'll get a low-round pick for him.
2006-06-20 14:13:28
58.   Marty
I remember when I was a kid being confused about the Norm Cash fluke year. I still don't know how he managed to hit .361
2006-06-20 14:14:11
59.   Humma Kavula
56 is a beautiful post. Love it.
2006-06-20 14:14:46
60.   JoeyP
I think there's a double standard between players the media likes, and players that they dont.

If you contrast the coverage that Bonds, Sheffield, Giambi, even Sosa have gotten, against that of say Adrian Beltre, and Luis Gonzales then you'll see a difference.

2006-06-20 14:16:16
61.   Bob Timmermann
58
Cash later admitting to corking his bat. But I think he corked his bat for almost his entire career, so it still doesn't make much sense.

Cash took that secret to his grave.

He is one of two players I remember who batted without a helmet. He and Bob Montgomery. They both used plastic liners inside their caps, which I believe were almost, but not quite, entirely useless.

2006-06-20 14:18:27
62.   Another Bob
58 The classic response is expansion. There were some fairly famous fluke seasons in the 1961 AL--some guy named Maris comes to mind. Oh, and I think Cash has since admitted he corked his bat, though as with pretty much everything, there's disagreement about how much corking really helps, if any.

56 Beltre laying off the slider low and away and not trying to pull everything were obvious in 2004, even to me, and I'm not that observant. Given that he was always strong enough to hit the ball out, does there have to be another reason?

2006-06-20 14:18:55
63.   Marty
I seem to remember Mays not using a helmet in the 60's. We had a really bad black and white TV so who really knows.
2006-06-20 14:19:42
64.   Another Bob
61 Apparently I'm another, and slower, Bob. That's what I get for going back to fix my tyops.
2006-06-20 14:20:24
65.   blue22
60 - And McGwire too. But weren't they all named in the Grand Jury testimonial? There's something more to those names besides "hey! homerun spike! must be on the juice!"

And those names you mentioned all were guilty by the old method of "looking 'roided up". If anything Gonzo and Beltre look the same as they did pre-spike. Of course, we now know that bulking up doesn't necessarily correlate with steroids.

2006-06-20 14:20:49
66.   Greg Brock
59 Thanks Humma. I so rarely receive compliments from people without lower bodies.
2006-06-20 14:20:52
67.   Marty
I'm afraid if we ever see Bob and Another Bob in the same room, the world will end.
2006-06-20 14:21:27
68.   Bob Timmermann
63
Of course, I don't remember seeing Mays until the 1970s.

He wore a helmet with the Mets:
http://tinyurl.com/pqevh

But not in this photo as a Giant:
http://tinyurl.com/mukjm

2006-06-20 14:22:18
69.   Nagman
1) Does Beltre get booed?
2) How does Raffy react when Izzy is put in as a late inning defensive replacement in a close game? ;-)
2006-06-20 14:23:07
70.   Jon Weisman
60 - I see the difference.

That being said, even the so-called media villains you cite got/get huge amounts of favorable coverage for long periods that did not discuss drug use. Look at coverage of Giambi today, for example. Look at coverage of Sheffield - it's almost all about whether his injury will heal, not about how big a user he might be.

As for Bonds, yeah, he got the book written about him and Beltre didn't. Until we get a book about Beltre, if you can't see a reason the coverage should be different, I guess we're at a stalemate.

Ultimately, I don't get the sense you're going to be satisfied unless the players you know took steroids are called steroid users in every story, regardless of proof.

2006-06-20 14:23:55
71.   Steve
Does Beltre get booed?

Not by me, but I can't say the same for Willie Bloomquist.

2006-06-20 14:24:48
72.   Jon Weisman
69 - I don't know what the reaction to Beltre will be. Dodger fans have become so bad about booing in recent years that it defies rational examination.
2006-06-20 14:26:02
73.   ToyCannon
Joey I don't know what media stories you've read about Beltre but only the local media does the homesick spin, that national media, rotosites, ESPN have all spun the Beltre streroid spin. I've even been to a conference where the emcee of a part of the conference told everyone that Kim had confided to him that it was because of steroids that the Dodgers didn't persue Beltre. I think he was full of crap and was name dropping to make his point that HE thought Beltre was a steroid user cause Kim couldn't be that stupid but the point is that it sure hasn't been left under the carpet.

Either way I'll give him a cheer when he comes up the 1st time and then that will be it. Most ex-dodgers that I liked for I root for but it is hard to root for an ex-dodger who has Boras as his agent. I wouldn't mind if I thought Boras did a good job for his clients but I don't see that, I see a guy who uses his clients every winter to get what he whats and his clients needs are secondary.

2006-06-20 14:26:42
74.   Xeifrank
2 questions I will leave to the experts.

1. Which minor league starting pitching prospect is next in line to join the big club, and how far away would he reasonably be from being called up?

2. Is the decision to make Broxton a relief pitcher set in stone? I know there has been talk of making him our future closer. Is there a reason that he was never considered as a starting pitcher? I know he started in the minors quite a bit. Is there a durability issue? Or he doesn't throw a large enough variety of pitches?

vr, Xei

2006-06-20 14:30:02
75.   ToyCannon
62
Maris won the MVP in both 60 and 61. For two years he was the best player in baseball next to his teammate. Which one was the fluke year?
2006-06-20 14:31:00
76.   ToyCannon
74
Ask Depodesta, he moved him to the bullpen last summer.
2006-06-20 14:36:16
77.   Jon Weisman
Last year, I never understood the move of Broxton to the bullpen to be a life sentence. It was meant to be a way for him to help the team sooner. I know some people have felt that the bullpen would be the best place for him all along, that he could pitch with more speed, but it was only this year, when he said he liked it (god forbid he said he didn't - then he'd be labeled a head case) that people decided it was set in stone. Me, I'd at least re-examine the issue. He doesn't have to go six innings from the get-go.

It seems easier to replace Broxton in the bullpen than to find an effective starter.

2006-06-20 14:38:46
78.   bhsportsguy
74 Until the Dodgers decide what to do with Sele, Tomko, Perez and Seo (Assuming that Penny, Lowe and Billingsley are set), you have 4 pitchers for 2 spots and while Seo maybe suited for the long man spot in the bullpen, one of the other three need to go because you don't need two long men in the bullpen.

The only other starter in the minors on the 40 man roster is D.J. Houlton, anyone else would have to be purchased from their club (Hanrahan for example) and then they would have to DFA someone. Even to bring up another starter would cause the Dodgers to DFA one of those four pitchers.

As far as Broxton goes, I have argued here that the Dodgers also have a problem in the bullpen and only Broxton, Baez and Saito have been fairly reliable this year. I don't think I've seen as many guys go up and down, Kuo and Carter have down and back, Beimel and Saito started in Vegas, Hamulack and Osoria may never see Dodger Stadium again. Maybe Miller will replace Beimel at some point. But that doesn't free up Broxton to start.

We'll get a good idea of how the Dodgers plan to address their roster problems when they activate Izzy but I don't think they will waive anyone, I see Mueller being put on the on the 60-day DL list.

2006-06-20 14:41:11
79.   ToyCannon
I'd love for us to give both Kuo and Broxton a shot in the rotation. Maybe Kuo can work out his control issues with more repetition. How can he be worse then what we've gotten from the ugly 3? His arm surgeries should be old news now and how is it easier on his arm pitching several times a week, throwing how many times in the bullpen, then taking a nice steady starting routine?
2006-06-20 14:41:40
80.   Jacob L
In my memory, the flukiest fluke year in the history of flukedom was Brady Anderson's 50 homer season in 1996. Was he roided up? If so, why for only one year? It was not his walk year. 97 was, and then he re-signed with Baltimore.
2006-06-20 14:42:50
81.   natepurcell
1. Which minor league starting pitching prospect is next in line to join the big club, and how far away would he reasonably be from being called up?

Most likely Justin Orenduff, but he hasnt pitched in 3 weeks. Pitching prospect would be Greg Miller but that wouldn't be in the rotation.

2006-06-20 14:45:07
82.   ToyCannon
Milton put back on the DL.
2006-06-20 14:46:54
83.   natepurcell
For all the flack Drew gets, Milton Bradley is the wussiest player in the majors.
2006-06-20 14:48:16
84.   Josh G
Has anyone heard any news on Guzman? I haven't seen his name in the lineup for the 51's since Saturday, and it looks like he got pulled out of that game. Is he injured?
2006-06-20 14:49:42
85.   Jon Weisman
84 - He got hit by a pitch and was put on the "aren't we all?" list.
2006-06-20 14:49:59
86.   natepurcell
84

took a pitch to the wrist/hand. so yea injuried.

2006-06-20 14:50:36
87.   DXMachina
61 He and Bob Montgomery. They both used plastic liners inside their caps, which I believe were almost, but not quite, entirely useless.

Yeah, Monty wasn't the brightest bulb on the tree. I used to watch him bat helmetless a lot in the seventies, and the Sox announcers used to make a big deal of how he was the last guy to do it that way. I just shook my head that a teammate of Tony Conigliaro could be that stupid. Now he does the color on televised PawSox games.

2006-06-20 14:52:03
88.   natepurcell
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2492877

jason johnson DFA.

didnt some people want him this offseason? Now's our chance!

2006-06-20 14:54:53
89.   LAT
ToyCannon, I have a question for you, would you email me at "l.tabb@mpglaw.com"
2006-06-20 14:55:25
90.   BajaDodgers
Everyone keeps talking about going after Zito next year, I Know he's got that great curveball and all, but what about Andy Pettite, he's a free agent next year, he's currently getting a little over 10 mil a year, I don't think Zito will be even close, your thoughts on the matter?????
2006-06-20 14:57:12
91.   natepurcell
90

I dont think Pettite wants to leave the state of Texas. I wouldnt mind him at all on a 2 yr deal. But he will probably get more then that.

2006-06-20 15:02:59
92.   bhsportsguy
88 You are joking right, very funny Nate. I guess that is what the heat does to people.
2006-06-20 15:08:17
93.   BajaDodgers
91
You're probably right Nate, and with Houston losing Clemens next year, they'll go all out to sign an extension on him.
Just thinking aloud, what about Tony Armas Jr., last offseason someone mentioned him as a good idea, before the Bombko signing??
2006-06-20 15:13:30
94.   Jon Weisman
Someone asked in the comments last week what I wrote about Tomko during the past offseason. Here is my initial reaction:

http://dodgerthoughts.baseballtoaster.com/archives/308324.html

2006-06-20 15:16:01
95.   Jon Weisman
94 - The discussion in the comments of that post, by the way, was really interesting.
2006-06-20 15:16:39
96.   Linkmeister
What happens if Billingsley can't cut it yet? On the basis of one start everyone here is assuming he's part of the rotation for the next 10 years. What if he's shelled the next eight times out?

When is his next start, anyway?

And I curse Prime Ticket again for not showing today's game.

2006-06-20 15:17:28
97.   Gagne55
First of all, it is self-evident that Beltre's 2004 was a result of bone spurs in the ankle that made it impossible for him to get out in front of the ball or be a sucker for the slider in the dirt. He always had great physical ability.

Jason Johnson actually looks like a good guy to pick up for a few starts. DFA Carter and send down Kuo to make room on the 40 and 25.

Beltre should get booed mercilessly. He's a former Dodger star, just like Sheffield, Green, and Piazza. He must get booed!!!

2006-06-20 15:17:48
98.   fanerman
96 - Tomorrow! On ESPN, meaning people out of LA like me can watch!
2006-06-20 15:20:07
99.   fanerman
97 - I always thought it was the bone spurs more than anything. I was hesitant to re-sign him because I heard the bone spurs were getting removed. He always had opposite field power (or so I thought). I never really thought much about steroids with him.
2006-06-20 15:20:21
100.   Gagne55
And what is up with people here wanting Kuo in the rotation. The guy is best suited to the LOOGY role. Just cause Little sometimes tries to stretch him for two innings, doesn't make it a good idea. And if you try to make him go 6 innings, there will inevitably be at least one in which he can't hit the side of a barn door.
Show/Hide Comments 101-150
2006-06-20 15:21:06
101.   Gagne55
So you agree with me then, fanerman.
2006-06-20 15:24:40
102.   JoeyP
He always had great physical ability.

I disagree.

2006-06-20 15:24:44
103.   Gagne55
I should probably mention that Billingsley is just about a 5 inning pitcher. He averaged 5 1/3 in AAA and then pitched the same 5 1/3 in the bigs.
2006-06-20 15:26:24
104.   Gagne55
102 The guy was called to the majors at age 19. He put up a 116 OPS+ at age 21. Does that not scream 'star in the making' to you?
2006-06-20 15:31:11
105.   Jon Weisman
100 - I can understand questioning his endurance and control right now, but confining him to face lefties (the typical LOOGY role) doesn't make sense. His OPS allowed against righties is .728.

The question is whether more rest between appearances would improve his performance.

2006-06-20 15:36:28
106.   Bluebleeder87
ToyCannon

I just emailed you for that info we were talking about, again thanks.

2006-06-20 15:36:33
107.   BajaDodgers
103
We can all hope that those stats in AAA were induced by the absence of R. Martin and the debut stats were jitters; wishfull thinking.
2006-06-20 15:38:50
108.   Blu2
Who's getting DLed to make room for Izturis, Kent or Drew?
2006-06-20 15:40:00
109.   LAT
I have two (maybe four, not sure yet) tickets for tonights game I can't use. They are Loge, Asile 133, Row C, seats 7 and 8. They are not electronic so whoever takes them would have to come downtown by about 6:30 and pick them up. (I am giving them away not selling them.) If you are interested, you can e-mail me at "l.tabb@mpglaw.com"
2006-06-20 15:42:17
110.   Jon Weisman
The lineup is up - but no roster news yet.
2006-06-20 15:42:50
111.   Jon Weisman
Although Ramon Martinez is starting at third base.
2006-06-20 15:44:03
112.   ToyCannon
I think your talking to me since I haven't seen anyone else mention Kuo in the rotation. His history was as a starter before his surgeries. He certainly isn't a LOOGY as he dominates both sides of the plate when he's on but as you noted control is his issue. When I've watched him he seems to have more problem with the plate against lefties then righties. They mentioned in the spring that they might be moving Kuo back into the rotation and I think now is as good a time as any. I wasn't talking in the Major leagues, I'd like him to build up his endurance at AAA and see how it works out.
2006-06-20 15:44:31
113.   Fallout
What I remember about Norm Cash's decline was seeing a sports magazine with a picture of a ball bouncing off Cash's back. The writer thought that the HPs and brush back pitches had taken their toll...

If I was at Dodger Stadium I would cheer Beltre the first time up. I blame Boras more than Beltre for leaving.

2006-06-20 15:46:42
114.   Another Bob
75 The fluke was the one where he hit 22 more home runs than in any other year of his career. Looking at the numbers, the interesting thing is that it was only the home runs that were fluky. His BA was down a little bit in 61, his OBP was almost exactly the same, he hit only two fewer doubles (16 instead of 18), his slugging was only up 40 points. He looks like he was the exact same hitter, except he hit more than half again as many home runs as he ever had. To me, that's a fluke. YMMV.
2006-06-20 15:48:50
115.   BajaDodgers
I don't mean to jump all over the place here with the subjects, but with Saltamachia's stock falling in the minor leagues, I guess that makes D. Navarro the premier catcher available for trades.
http://baseballanalysts.com/
2006-06-20 15:51:52
116.   Another Bob
I'm curious: why do so many people think Scott Boras exerts some sort of mind control over his clients? They are (mostly) grown men who can make their own decisions. Boras can recommend, strongly, but he can't force any of them to do anything. Might Boras try to manipulate negotiations for player A so that another of his clients benefits? Sure. But it only works if player A goes along with it. If Boras wasn't doing what his clients wanted, they'd switch agents. If you're going to "blame" anyone for Beltre signing with Seattle, blame Adrian.
2006-06-20 15:52:14
117.   Fallout
I think that Kuo needs to start a few games in AAA whether he be a starter or reliever.
He needs to refine his skills and starting will give him the innings he needs to develop them.
2006-06-20 15:59:43
118.   ToyCannon
114
To me a fluke year is a year in which a lousy or average player has a year that is off the charts. Roger Maris was the best right fielder in the AL from 1960-62 and it was only injuries that ruined his career. The homers were a jump but when you slug 581 and then you slug 620 I don't see a fluke but that is just my opinion.
2006-06-20 16:02:02
119.   natepurcell
hey LAT, still giving the tickets away for tonight?
2006-06-20 16:03:50
120.   underdog
Re: Jason Johnson - just what we need, another pitcher who readily serves up long balls.

Re: Kuo - I like him, root for him, love his "stuff," but his lack of control is still a big problem. Perhaps starting in the minors would indeed be the way to correct it, but I'd rather him not be experimented with in the majors lest we have to sit through a bunch of Ishii-like games.

2006-06-20 16:05:50
121.   BajaDodgers
Fullerton getting beat currently by Clemson, hey!, at least if Clemson wins they got that guy that Dodgers drafted(D'Allesio)
2006-06-20 16:06:57
122.   natepurcell
I think Kuos lack of control can be attributed to his lack of innings as a pitcher. Even though he is 24 yrs old, he has pitched a total of like 102 innings of professional baseball coming into this season.

So basically, he hasnt had the experience really.

2006-06-20 16:07:20
123.   ToyCannon
In 1960 Mantle lead the league in Home Runs with 40 and Maris was 2nd with 39. In 61 of course it was Maris with 61, Mantle with 54.
2006-06-20 16:07:42
124.   natepurcell
121

I really hope D'alessio signs. Hes the best defensive 1b in the SEC and he can mash (20+ homeruns this year).

2006-06-20 16:07:58
125.   underdog
Btw, shall I officially re-activate Barry Zito to LA trade rumors and debate?

FoxSports mused that he could go for Guzman and Broxton. Which could just be pulled out of the writer's.... ying yang. Zito, want him? And for who?

2006-06-20 16:09:03
126.   underdog
122 Could absolutely be the case. I'd love to see what he could do with more innings, which means the minors. Then see how his control works. I just don't want to see the process myself. ;-)
2006-06-20 16:09:08
127.   ToyCannon
122
Yes, he needs repetition and the best way to get that is to start and hopefully in the minors.
2006-06-20 16:10:40
128.   natepurcell
I just don't want to see the process myself.

I personally do actually. I like watching young players grow and develop.

2006-06-20 16:11:58
129.   DodgerJoe
125 - I'd do Zito for Guzman and Broxton in a heartbeat, but I think it would take more.

Note that it looks like we stole Ethier from them already. That may be in the back of Beane's mind (you never know)

2006-06-20 16:13:24
130.   ToyCannon
You guys know the fish are 18-6. Sweet streak.
2006-06-20 16:14:58
131.   Johnson
111 Although Ramon Martinez is starting at third base.

Raising suspicions that Aybar is being sent down to make room for Izzy. I don't suppose something like that could last too long - do we really mean to go for a long stretch with Martinez/Saenz at third? Aybar can be sent down "for free", but it still doesn't make a lot of sense to me if there's not a move in the works.

2006-06-20 16:15:07
132.   Greg S
125 After watching Zito pitch in person this weekend, I'd say he's exacly the guy we need to have a real chance and I'd give up a lot to get him. That said, the A's have every chance to go deep this season so how/why would they let him go?
2006-06-20 16:15:09
133.   Jacob L
125 129 You're talking about 1/2 year of Zito, right? I say no. I'm not against trading Guzman, but has his stock fallen so far that all we can get is 15 starts from Zito? To say nothing of Brox.
2006-06-20 16:17:01
134.   JoeyP
Aybar's been optioned to AAA.
Izturis will play some 3rd base.

This according to the InsidetheDodgers blog.

The Colletti era is in full effect.

I cant even begin to describe how bad this move is.

2006-06-20 16:17:33
135.   Jon Weisman
Game thread is open.
2006-06-20 16:17:48
136.   JoeyP
Also, Bill Mueller has been put on the 60-day DL.

Yuck.

2006-06-20 16:18:00
137.   Greg S
Talking to a players agent and coming to terms on a longer contract before making a trade is commonplace in baseball. It's against the rules, but commonplace. Like Greenies.
2006-06-20 16:27:01
138.   BajaDodgers
124
How far away would he be from the majors, I wouldn't mind him putting pressure on Loney to perform 3 years from now when he has that security on the position, I've always thought that every major leaguer needs just a tad of competition to perform on non contract years. Am I making sense??, just getting ahead of myself
2006-06-20 16:29:42
139.   Sushirabbit
116
Perhaps it's the horns and pitchfork?

It all comes down to who you believe and in baseball that's gotta be pretty tricky. As much as I think I'd like it, sometimes I'm sure I couldn't make it.

2006-06-20 16:35:57
140.   underdog
Zito for 1/2 the year probably wouldn't be worth the cost, you're right, Wonder if we could sign him to an extension during the season though... then I'd be game for him.

I wonder about Izzy at 3rd since his arm strength was supposedly the worry (whether it was built up enough). But Kent at 3rd wouldn't work. Furcal at 3rd, since he has good range an d a good arm might make more sense, but that prolly won't happen.

I actually really miss Mueller now.

2006-06-20 19:22:47
141.   das411
Mariano Rivera is on deck in Phila.

Bob, take it away!

Comment status: comments have been closed. Baseball Toaster is now out of business.