Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Jon's other site:
Screen Jam
TV and more ...
1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
Many folks this morning are talking about a rumored trade for Tampa Bay pitcher Mark Hendrickson. I'll break my rule about talking about rumors to just say this much.
As a pitcher, Hendrickson is soaring ... like a man in a barrel at the top of Niagra Falls.
The 6-foot-9 former basketball player is 32 and coming off three seasons where his ERA was below average. His career ERA over 646 1/3 innings is 5.01. Last season, he had a year worthy of the current starting pitchers the Dodgers would have him replace: a 5.90 ERA (73 ERA+), with 14 baserunners per nine innings against 4.5 strikeouts.
In 2006, Hendrickson's ERA is down to 3.81. This career-defying performance through 90 innings is predicated on a BABIP (batting average on balls in play) allowed of .258 - the 12th-lowest of any pitcher in baseball with more than 70 innings. He's had just about as many balls in play, striking out 5.1 batters per nine innings, but thanks to more balls finding gloves, Hendrickson has reduced his baserunners per nine innings to 12.
Now, you can all that luck or skill if you want, but this is the very best Hendrickson can do - and it isn't that spectacular. And it's tenuous. Last year, Hendrickson's BABIP allowed was .329. The year before, it was .300. Unless Hendrickson has truly mastered the game during the past offseason, somewhere in between last year and this year is the real Hendrickson.
One thing Hendrickson might have going for him is that it would be an easier road in the National League West than the American League East. But Hendrickson's former Devil Ray teammates, Danys Baez and Lance Carter, don't provide much support for that argument.
You never really know who's going to work out and who's not. I've almost been as wrong about the starting pitching this year as Ned Colletti. I didn't predict Jae Seo and Odalis Perez would struggle so much. I think I was right about Brett Tomko being mediocre, but I've been wrong about Aaron Sele (so far).
If there's a lesson here, though, it is not to trust the most recent 13 starts of a veteran pitcher. I understand the frustration with the Dodger starting pitching and the imperative to do better, but essentially you've got Perez and Seo at their worst and Hendrickson at his best. Should we assume they will stay that way - given that Perez, Seo and Hendrickson are all perfect illustrations of how much mediocre pitchers fluctuate in performance, of how unreliable recent history is? (Odalis Perez has gone from 4.56 ERA/.292 BABIP in 2005 to 6.33 ERA/.388 BABIP in 2006. He's done a reverse 2006 Hendrickson, or, if you prefer, he's approximated what Hendrickson did from 2004 to 2005.)
A reasonable hope for Hendrickson is that he would come here and give you a 4.00 ERA over six or seven innings. Think about that. That's the hope.
There's no actual trade for Hendrickson for me to write about, but he was worth discussing. There is a price that he'd be worth, but beware of fool's gold.
* * *
Tom Hoffarth of the Daily News blogs a nice obituary for the inventor of the Dodger Dog, Tom Arthur, complete with recollections from former Dodger owner Peter O'Malley.
"The Dodger Dog was definitely his idea; he deserves all the credit," said O'Malley. "It worked out all the details about the extra long casings with the Clougherty family at Farmer John, and they brought it to us one day and asked if they could try an extra-long hot dog.
"We said, sure, try it out. Everyone respected his judgment, and we respected him since the late '50s, when he was doing the concessions for us at the Coliseum. There was no harm in trying it out. And it was a hit from the start."
There seems to be some question about what year the Dodger Dog was introduced. Hoping to get an update.
Update: Hoffarth passes along the news that Dodger team historian Mark Langill pegs the debut of the Dodger Dog to the 1970s:
... the first references to Dodger Dogs in the game programs were in 1970 - the first year Peter O'Malley took over as team president. A hot dog at the stadium could have been unofficially called a "Dodger Dog" without it necessarily being the longer version. A program ad for Farmer John has the tagline: "Try the Dodger Dogs at the Stadium."
* * *
A letter:
Jon -
I have read your blog for the past year but never written in until
now, when an event so shocking has compelled me to share it with the
entire Dodger fan community.
DAVE ROSS HAS 10 HOME RUNS THIS SEASON!!!! THE MOST ANY DODGER HAS IS 9!!!!
I don't know if you were aware of that or not, but THIS IS INSANE. His
line for 2006 is ridiculous, even considering that it's Great American
Ballpark...
GAMES: 37 ABs: 99 AVG: .323 OBP: .397 SLUG: .697 OPS: 1.094
(OPS OF 1.094!!!! THAT IS MANNY RAMIREZ LEVEL!)
I know that 100 at bats is a small sample size, and flukes can happen,
but this is Dave Ross we're talking about!! He is actually owned in
over 97% of ESPN fantasy leages!!! Before spring training I thought he
was out of baseball!!! How can this happen?
HOW ARE DODGER FANS MISSING THIS SIGN OF THE APOCALYPSE?
-Nick C., 16, Sherman Oaks
One person says "the rumor" also includes the Rays getting Seo "back."
Put no stock in any of this.
http://tinyurl.com/plqho
Navarro, Tiffany, and Jackson for Gas Can Carter, Baez, and a power forward. Is anybody checking Colletti's bank account, and if so, are there any deposits coming from Florida?
I mean the backup catcher is a scratch, if we didn't trade navarro to them we wouldn't need another catcher, and Hendrickson is hardly better than perez/seo. I see no gain at all for the Dodgers in this trade.
___________________________
I heard from a "friend/source" that they are trying to send Hendrickson, Hall, and Elijah Dukes Crying or Very sad to the Dodgers for Navarro and Billingsley.
That is the hold up. Apparently they really want Dukes, but don't want to give up Billingsley to get him.
We'll see. whistle (a little birdy told me)
_______________________
http://tinyurl.com/ltpbr
We will. His name is Mark Hendrickson.
And/or San Francisco...?
Players with awesome beards are just more then "middle relievers" and "back up catchers"
They are the leaders of the free world, they are the glimmer of hope we must cling onto as humanity forges into the future. They are vessels that manifest the divine energy of this universe. THEY ARE THE REASON FOR LIVING.
/end rant on the awesomeness of beards.
Now were talking, a little juice to the fire. Dukes would make Milton look like a boy scout.
Trying to think of a Timmermann joke, but his not having been born at this time is getting in the way.
Those things are too itchy.
Let's just cut to the chase: Baez for Pujols.
My 1st wife loved my beard and hated me when I didn't have one, my 2nd wife hates any stubble at all. Go figure.
You want to trade Baez for a Giants first-base coach?
Fine with me.
Mark Grace.
The Dodgers are getting Collettied.
LOL: Navarro, Seo AND a player to be named later!
Going for Hendrickson? Okay...but isn't he pretty much worth like a B-level prospect? I would think we could get more back if we packaged Navarro in a bigger deal for someone a little better. Also, the thought of Billingsley going anywhere is just too much to even think about.
firenedcolletti.blogspot.com
earlier today, but it didn't exist yet...
"He's a great fifth starter," a scout says of Hendrickson, 32, who is 6 foot 9, 230 pounds. "He's durable. He's tall. He's very deceptive. Guys get bad swings on him. His stuff isn't great, but at the end of the day you look up and say, "He's not that bad."
I hope that when I'm dead and buried, my tombstone reads "He wasn't that bad."
Rosenthal's article implies that Hall is "insurance"? The guy makes 2.1 mils. He wont be playing in AAA. This means that the Dodgers are going to carry around 2 useless catchers on the bench.
I'm anxiously awaiting the Willy Aybar for Salomon Torres deal any day now.
At least Navarro will get a chance to play everyday in Tampa. And we get stuck with another team's garbage.
Jon needs to revisit the comparisons between Colletti and his predecessor. They arent close.
Does this mean Hendrickson is going to back up Aaron Sele, the way Hall wil be backing up Sandy Alomar?
I have been thinking the same thing all day. "Will this be the transaction that finally pushes Jon into the 'I guess Ned and Depo really are that different after all' camp?"
If the team is going to shop, I'd rather not shop at Goodwill. If all the other stores are closed, simply dont shop.
I don't think that's really the point. The point is that we're giving up talent for mediocre at best players.
I mean really, is Hendrickson that much better than Seo? So then why have to include Navarro? It really makes no sense...also, has this deal been officially announced???
that just put it all into perspective...and it hit me like a ton of bricks.
If true, like the adventures of Ross, and the addition of Jim Tracy as the candidate for president 2008, it can only mean the "APOCALYPSE" is nigh!
I think Tracy would make a good military general.
"Did I order the code red? Did I order the code red? You're d***n right I ordered the code red!"
(Apologies for the d***n)
No, Hall will now be flipped to Arizona for Shawn Green to balance everything out.
Is the scout Ned Colletti? At the very least, he works for the Dodgers.
As much as I dislike Seo Seo, he was a decent insurance policy. He didn't have any options left but I think he would have cleared waivers.
So the D-rays already bent Ned over once, yet he had to come back for seconds? Does he enjoy subjecting Dodger fans to this type of torture?
"In the end, it all comes down to talent. You can talk all you want about intangibles, I just don't know what that means. Talent makes winners, not intangibles. Can nice guys win? Sure, nice guys can win -- if they're nice guys with a lot of talent. Nice guys with a little talent finish fourth, and nice guys with no talent finish last."
Sandy meet Toby Hall
Columbia, Md.: Is Baltimore ready for the return of Sal Fasano? Sal's Pal's will be running wild tonight at the yard!
Jorge Arangure Jr.: I'm looking forward to seeing Sal. He's a great guy and an honest guy. He had a sense of humor and he knew the game really well. It would not surprise me if he became a manager or coach some day. I'm not so sure about the fu manchu mustache though. I'll have to ask what he was thinking there.
So what did you expect? He is from San francisco...
See, Seo and Hendrickson are basically a wash...so why bother making this trade in the first place. AND add Navarro? It just defies all logic to do this....oh, I forgot we're taking on 2 mill with Toby Hall. this better be followed by Alomar being DFA'd.
This trade is really, REALLY baffling.
"While there are certainly differences between the two, Colletti is more DePodesta than many realize."
I never said they were the same.
I wrote:
"As a result, despite the pervasive front office chaos and major roster turnover since the McCourt family bought the team in 2004, the Dodgers remain on something of a consistent long-term trajectory."
I don't think replacing Seo with Hendrickson and changing backup catchers when a 22-year-old is the starting catcher really changes that.
I wrote:
"The Dodgers remain what they are -- a team with twitchy ownership, a mix of talented and disposable veterans, and hopes that home-grown prospects will eventually carry the day."
That hasn't changed. It may change, but it hasn't.
We can argue these points if you want. You can bring up all the differences and say they're not close, and then I can bring up all the similarities. I just don't want what I wrote to be misrepresented.
So ...
Trading Seo for Hendrickson is essentially a non-event in this debate. Trading Navarro for Hall is less so, though we do know that DePo liked having a veteran backup catcher. But no, I don't suspect DePo trades Navarro for Hall.
Does that make DePo and Colletti more different than I previously thought? I guess. Happy?
At the rate we're going it won't just be Oh Dallas...he'll be packaged with Dewitt and a ptbnl for Julian Tavarez.
Honestly, this is Carter/Baez redux. Just because a prospect doesn't figure in the plans for your team, doesn't mean you give them away.
The Rays just did with Hendrickson what we should be doing with Izturis. Turn a short term hot streak into a big return in trade. Instead, we're probably going to have Izturis start the rest of the year at third. Stir, add water. Remove from heat when OPS reaches 600.
Except:
Hendrickson: $1.95 million
Seo: $350,000
Grady's all right
They just seem a little weird
Surrender
Surrender
But don't give yourself awayyyyy...
I agree...essentially we haven't downgraded with this deal...the problem I have is dealing prospects for trash. I have to believe that if we packaged Jackson, Tiffany, and Navarro we could have gotten more than Baez, Carter, Hendrickson, and Hall. It just seems as if Flanders is wasting our trading chips...
Throwing it all away
Is there nothing that I can say
To make you change your mind
I watch the world go round and round
And see mine turning upside down
You're throwing it all away.
This trade looks to be recognizing that fact, with Navarro the cost of the upgrade.
On a day like this, it might be nice to be reminded of the similarities. So far, I cant seem to think of any.
Aybar for Salomon Torres (former Giant!)
Izturis for Aaron Boone, Joe Randa, or David Bell (former Giant!)
Kuo and Greg Miller for Tood Jones (former all star, proven closer)
If Martin slumps, we have a guy who is good at throwing out runners. Hall's defense is good in that he's able to shut down the running game. On the other hand, he doesn't block the plate and seems to allow a lot of wild pitches. I've also heard him criticized for calling a bad game. But he makes up for that with his .261 OBP!
DePo and Colletti both like to sprinkle Parmesan on their Spaghetti-Os.
Is their any GM outside of Washingon DC that would even contemplate such a trade?
We're talking Jim Bowden levels of incompetance. That isnt good.
http://tinyurl.com/p56b2
Selected Dodger G/F ratios:
Carter: 1.19
Hamulack: 1.60
Odalis: 1.42
I could go on, but I don't feel like it.
Selected Dodger G/F ratios:
Carter: 1.19
Hamulack: 1.60
Odalis: 1.42
I could go on, but I don't feel like it.
is Navarro worth that absolutely minimal upgrade?
No, that would entail dealing Billingsley and Guzman for Jorge Cantu with the expectation that Cantu moves behind the dish.
Last thing I want to do today.
I think Colletti has the Drays as the poison control button on his speed dial.
Some tidbits:
We've acquired Mark Hendrickson, one of the top lefties in the AL this year
Ugh.
We're also putting Brett Tomko on the 15-day DL, so we'll carry three catchers at this time
Mixed emotions.
They call Hendrickson "one of the top lefties in the AL this year" (I do like them acquiring a lefty, I think in this division that's one thing they really needed since OP has struggled but it's still a little head scratching)
And placed Tomko on the DL, so they will carry.. 3 catchers? Yup. What do we know about Hall?
I'm not surprised Navarro was traded but do agree with many of you here that we should have gotten more. This seems like a slightly desperate move but we'll see. (I know the Yankees would have loved Navarro back, but don't have a ton to offer either.)
Because he's an idiot!
Brett Tomko: he's an "innings eater"
Sandy Alomar: he has veteran clubhouse presence
Toby Hall: Veteran, defensive player
Mark Hendrickson: he's an "innings eater"
Danys Baez: he had 41 saves, must be good...
Lofton: he's a veteran that knows how to win
Mueller: he's a veteran that knows how to win
Lance Carter: he's an all star
Ramon Martinez: he's a scrappy veteran
I could go on but it really comes down to competantly evaluating players based on the right measures. Colletti made three mistakes in Baez/Seo/Carter in not recognizing their peipherals. It appears he's doing the same with Hendrickson. One time, ok its a fluke mistake everyone makes them. 3-4 times is a pattern that doesnt bode well for the future.
The press release says the Dodgers also get cash.
I don't like this trade, but it reflects the equities of the market.
What I find hard to fathom is how bad Seo turned out to be. We gave up a good pitcher to get that guy. I hope we don't find out later that he's actually fabulous, and we just got him at the wrong moment.
exactly.
Getting Hendrickson doesn't bother me...in fact, I'm kind of hopeful that we can pitch pretty well for us. It's the little parts that irritate me....throwing in Navarro for no reason AND taking Toby Hall back. Shouldn't it have been the other way around? Like, we take Hall and his salary back so they'll throw in an extra minor leaguer?
Obviously Martin is our catcher so losing Navarro really isn't the end of the world...but the more prospects you deal for mediocre players, the less prospects you have to include in a deal for a real impact player come deadline time. I just don't get Colletti's line of thinking here...
When the McCourts hired Camille Johnston to head their PR, it was one terrific move. Mr. Rawitch has a way with words.
Yep. Plus, Oh Dallas is viewed (whether fairly or not) as a whining clubhouse cancer who complains about no run support. Hendrickson is viewed (wfon) as an angel.
PS: Regarding whether Ned was offered "more" for Navarro - we probably define "more" differently than Ned does.
How do you figure?
Navarro is 22 yrs old. He's played well the time he's played in the big leagues.
The problem with Hendrickson is that a guy like that isnt going to win you more games than he'll lose. He's way below average. He has little to no upside.
I'd have to disagree with you. An everyday catcher is more valuable than a 5th starter.
Add that to the fact that teams know the Dodgers are settled on Martin at this point and were planning on unloading Navarro, so how much bargaining power do you think they had here?
I'm just sayin'....
Now let's hope we get the Hendrickson who has been solid this year and not the freak of nature he might appear to be.
When people step back and look at the deal, is it really that much of a factor?
Trading something usefull, for something that cant help at all is never a good trade.
Absolutely. I just mean that the "Colletti/Depo" debate is probably more of a "Sabre/Old School" debate than anything else, which is a debate most of us freely participate in on a daily basis (whether explicitly or not). This debate is largely what makes baseball so interesting these days, at least for me.
I agree completely.
Regarding the notion that the negative impact of this trade isn't really large in magnitude, consider this:
Let's say I give you a dollar, and you give me a penny in exchange. That's a bad trade for me, but will I really miss the 99 cents? No, I won't. But it's still a stupid trade, and I still should have gotten more in exchange for my dollar than a penny. At the very least, I could have simply kept my dollar and saved it for a rainy day.
It's not, and I agree. The problem is that it's scary. This is two trades now where this has happened. I've compeltely held off judgment of Flanders..and I will all the way through the deadline. But it's deals like this and the Baez one that scare the bejeezus out of me. I'm terrified of what might happen at the trade deadline.
Trading something usefull, for something that cant help at all is never a good trade.
exactly. If this was say, Seo and a ptbnl for Hendrickson then the deal makes sense. But it's like we threw Navarro in for no reason. We do have an overflow of prospects and I'm not against trading a couple of them...but I don't want to trade young guys with talent for league average pitchers. We have enough league average pitchers as it is.
I'm saving my outrage for the inevitable far worse trade that will be coming down the pike in the next three weeks.
I really like your moustache
Just kidding
Colletti is an id...Oh, never mind.
How is it hindsight when the deal is ripped before its even consumated?
I dont think it took hindsight to know Tomko was bad, or that Hendrickson will probably be bad.
There... that's better.
Yes it did.
Hot off the press: Ned offers Gagne bobble head for Baez bobble head.
Nature abhors a vacuum.
Seo walks in winning runs, his only reason coming to LA was for the starting role in the new Superman. As for navarro he had one impressive game and a base hit meant you get 2nd base for free.
Hendrickson isn't the best, but 3.81 isn't bad, and .220 on the road, maybe he'll play in LA like it's the road. One game he pitched 9 innings, 3 hits and no earned runs and still lost... I won't miss SEO a bit and navarro wasn't cutting it. Plus we got some money from the deal.
If this is the only trade we do before July 31st I'd be upset, however I think we have something else lined up.
Nice singular connection between GM and success.
135 - LOL!
We have 2 pitchers under 3.00 ERA, 2 more under 4.00 ERA (including hendrickson) and a rookie that was doing fine until last night.
If if Hendrickson sticks to his current stats we're still doing way better than with Seo.
Seo -Home:5.65 Road: 6.00 (5.78 total)
Hendrickson-Home:5.75 Road: 2.20 (3.81 total)
Maybe Hendrickson will play in LA like it's AWAY. Regardless, we have a better starter.
We're not "just" calling him an idiot, we're looking at the deals he's made so far, at our expanding salary, and at our loss of three prospects with enough hype that we should have gotten more for them than we did (nothing so far).
I agree with the above poster (responding to my response) that having Navarro as insurance made me feel better in case Martin gets hurt, especially since we know that Alomar won't be around much longer. That said, the catcher we did get (in this weird trade) is a pretty good one, he will make a very solid backup (which sounds like damning with faint praise but isn't meant to). Toby Hall - two huge baseball fans I work with (and fantasy GMs) walked by just now to tell me that Toby Hall's a really solid catcher. FWIW.
Perhaps part of the reason here is also to give Navarro a chance to start somewhere else? Not that it's all about charity here - and perhaps I'm being charitable - but I still say, Hendrickson's better than Seo and Hall could even be better than Navarro. (Still, I wish they hadn't given up on Seo so quickly.)
Navarro's value for the next couple of years far outweighs what we got back. The fact that we have Martin does not come close to justifying this trade. Navarro might not have the same value to us as he does to other teams, but clearly, there are other teams who are in need of a catcher and would give us fair value. Right now might just not be the best time.
The only way this trade makes sense is if there are only two teams in MLB, the Dodgers and Devil Rays. And if that were true, this trade would be seen as an act of compassion and generoisity.
Comment status: comments have been closed. Baseball Toaster is now out of business.