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A Kid Grows Up in '68
2006-06-28 07:52
Rich Lederer, Baseball Analysts: I couldn't play baseball. I couldn't ride my bike. I couldn't even run. Well, now that I think about it, I really never could run all that well anyway. To wit, my high school coach used to time me running from home to first with a calendar. I can hear him now, "January, February, March, April..." I wasn't all that bad. I mean, I don't think I ever made it into May. Mickey Mantle could run to first base in 3.1 seconds. I could run to first base in 3.1 months. But the Mick could only do that hitting from the left side. I had the disadvantage of being a right-handed hitter. In any event, I was sidelined that summer. I was instructed by my doctor to rest and apply ice to my knees frequently. I don't think the ice bags helped my pneumonia much, but my lungs seem to clear up at about the same pace as the improvement in my knees. I was a prime candidate for Osgood-Schlatter as it generally afflicts children in a "growth spurt" between 10 and 15 years old who are involved in sports. I was always tall for my age, but I shot up several inches that year. The good news is that I lost all my baby fat and was as slim as I had ever been. What's a 13-year-old boy, who has no clue about girls, to do in his summer between seventh and eighth grades when he can't play his favorite sport and is mostly confined to home? ... * * * Odalis Perez pitching in the Central time zone on a weekday morning. Brings back memories ... Dodger manager Grady Little told Bill Shaikin of the Times that he doesn't anticipate leaving Perez in the rotation after today. "We've been down that road enough," Manager Grady Little said. "I think he's valuable for us in the bullpen." But, you know, things change. Except with Russell Martin. Martin is the designated hitter today - but batting last, of course. It's not a big deal, but keeping Martin at the bottom of the order seems to represent the often flexible Little at his most rigid. Sandy Alomar Jr. is starting at catcher, probably for the last time in a long while. Hmm, and J.D. Drew and Nomar Garciaparra are on the bench against Twins duplicate ace Johan Santana.
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I ask because of Grittle's (over)use of Martin. Not only does he catch almost everyday, but now that he gets a day off, he's DHing. Maybe he'll get more time off now that Mr. Sub-.700 OPS is backing him up.
Everyone is missing the important story of the day. Shame on you! Matt Kemp is in the 3-hole!
I'm not so sure. It's fairly common practice in American League lineups to have your second- or third-best hitter working the nine hole, because then you end up with 9-1-2 having two leadoff men. At least, that's how Scioscia has done things in Anaheim for a while now.
Dave Smith of Retrosheet is giving a presentation on lineup construction in Seattle this weekend at the SABR convention.
I will report back with the results. Dave usually posts his slides online when he gets back.
On the other hand, I can't say Drew has done much in a while.
Can anyone tell me who the last few D's pitching coaches have been--say back to '95?
Honeycutt
Jim Colbrunn (sp)
Charlie Hough
Dave Wallace
I think that covers most if not all of the decade.
Nomar I can't explain.
(Toby) Hall failed in his attempt to break John Flaherty's record for worst career RCAA for the Devil Rays--
1 John Flaherty -94
2 Toby Hall -88
3 Miguel Cairo -57
4 Bobby Smith -48
5 Mike DiFelice -45
6 Damian Rolls -42
7 Vinny Castilla -39
T8 Felix Martinez -37
T8 Gerald Williams -37
10 Jason Tyner -36
The Preview at the Off. Dodger cite has a Space for player to watch in this game--and its Nomar. Go figure.
Maybe the Dodgers are just conceding this game to the best pitcher in baseball, and dont want their star guys to go into a slump or look bad against him.
Goosen was very skinny and had very good posture.
I thought about making a Retief-related comment, but wasn't sure anyone would know what I was talking about. Not that that has ever stopped me before...
Don't want to go deeper yet, it could get ugly.
I picked Cleveland to win the division.
And the pennant.
And the World Series!
I bet on this in Las Vegas. I think my payoff will be in Confederate dollars.
If they only win 24 games the rest of the way, they'll meet my prediction for their record.
How many people live within a 10 mile radius of the intersection of Hollywood and Highland?
You need to be within 1% to get full credit.
I'm using 2005 population estimates.
The winner gets my full admiration.
For entertainment purposes only, of course.
How much is that worth (in Confederate dollars)?
Surprisingly, 2.3 million is too low.
We should congratulate Matt Kemp on getting to a 3-ball count.
Sam DC has my full admiration.
ESRI estimates the total for 2005 at 3,063,715 within a 10-mile radius of that intersection. And there is a good chunk of that is just the Santa Monica Mountains.
And another good chunk which is part of the San Fernando Valley, the Westside and Downtown.
vr, Xei
I will stay above the recount fray, leaving the sharp-elbow-throwing to my surrogates.
Dave Matthews Band?
Digital Multimedia Broadcasting?
Diamond Mind Baseball?? :)
Nope, I wrote my own program using VB. I'm still making improvements to it. It nailed a couple of games in a row then tanked the first two vs the Twins.
vr, Xei
Remember when the AL Central wasn't any good?
This one's over.
Maybe today is the last we'll see out of OP. He's pitching like he wants to get out of here.
vr, Xei
vr, Xei
So who goes in as the mop-up man in the 3rd inning?
If I could ever think of a stereotype for the word "scrappy", it'd be Lew Ford.
Now if he could just figure out how to do it on that fourth hit.
vr, Xei
Seo?
Oh. Wait.
Or maybe after the third all the other relievers will come in to pitch one inning apiece since the team is off tomorrow.
Which inning will be the Baez inning? Which one for Kuo? Which one for Broxton?
were's Erickson when you need him.
Here's hoping. Hey , look at Alomar.
I haven't watched too many games so just going off what I've heard as far as his D.
The home run is another story.
Hall will catch the first game that Hendrickson throws, will probably watch the whole rotation before eventually trying out each of them.
From her discussion of the 8-2 game (as opposed to the 9-2 game): "We are winning because Joe Morgan is a giant boob. Hear me out here . . ."
C'mon Cesar!
For the same reason that Hendrickson has a 3.81 ERA.
The first was to Joe Mauer.
The second, grounder up the middle.
The third, infield single.
I'm not sure what else OP could've done there....
...but, again, the HR is another story.
How about striking them out?
Thats progress.
Can we leave now?
Oh well, at least OP settled down a little in the 2nd.
A little.
I wonder if we can change the shorthand "OP" to OOP (as in "oops" or, for us video store geeks, for "out of print", the DVD biz equivalent of DFA, which is perhaps what Perez will be soon.)
chin music.
OP's bellie dons't look as big as other times, maybe he's traying to stay in shape now.
"In play, out(s) recorded"
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Funny, when you think of what DFA stands for, "Designated for assignment" - what would Perez be assigned to? Sounds like he'd be studying for an exam or something. Maybe the assignment would be to get therapy, and or to re-learn how to pitch*?
(* "pitch instead of bitch" could be his new mantra in therapy)
I'm not going to deny Odalis has been terrible, but it's only been eight starts and he's been jerked around all year. If we DFA him who comes up? Osoria? Hamulack? Houlton? I admit the man has not had a good year up to this point, but its not like booting him helps the team by any appreciable amount?
Too bad that was the game.
I think Perez needs to be his own mop up man today. I see a big buffet table full of innings, and not many diners.
Dodgers Fire Odalis Perez.
It'd be funny if he was like "I only threw one bad pitch all game"
If we were in a real division, we'd trade Kent and Tomko/Sele for something worthwhile.
If we were in a real division, we'd trade Kent and Tomko/Sele for something worthwhile.
Let me put it this way. We all know Aaron Sele stinks, and a collapse is inevitable. Well he's been good for nine starts, yet no one well admit he's good. If we are allowing that much time for Sele to become bad, why won't we give Odalis at least that much of a chance to be good?
Maybe a team like the Yankees would take that on, but they already have Cano. Kent to the Red Sox might make some sense. They could take his contract.
He hardly ever walks people and usually strikes out more than he has so far.
On the bright side, if we stay the course a bit and don't do anything too stupid, I can see two years down the road we might have several players almost as good as Mauer.
"Trade" "Jeff" "Kent"
Oh yea, it was me. What a moroon!
I commend you for trying to use logic and reason.
But I think when Odalis Perez pitches, you are up against an angry mob that just wants blood and is reacting viscerally.
regairfield is DT's Atticus Finch today.
Sure.
I'm going to be Boo Radley. I think it's safer not to comment much today.
It's okay. 2006 is an even year. All logic says Odalis should have had a decent year.
Still, I agree with regfairfield. We should give him a bit of a chance, if only because we have nobody else right now.
Given LA's lack of options, and that CBillz hasn't been the savior many (mistakenly) thought, OP has to be put back in the rotation for at least 5 starts. I don't see where else you turn, unless you make a trade.
As has been pointed out numerous times, an "anyone but [Odalis]" isn't much of an argument.
Even when given the chance to call out Shawn Green in public for not diving for that ball on his no hit attempt, he didnt do it. I think that showed some class.
I just think OP's attitude is way overblown, unless your a Loduca disciple cuz apparently Loduca took it personally when he criticized the offense that year.
Of course things could be worse, at least there will be a race this year in the NL West this year.
Quit sticking things in that tree!
We had a race last year in the NL West, but it was a snail race.
Would you trade Kemp/Billingsley for A-Rod?
I'd do that in a heartbeat.
He's on pace for about 25 HRs, it's certainly replaceable. His biggest asset right now is his OB% derived from walks. Aybar can make that up if a MLB-ready player isn't brought in with this hypothetical Kent trade.
... Oooh, I see -- the logical and reasonable thing to do is to continue allowing an unmotivated and uninspired pitcher to keep lousing up the ballclub with his 7 ERA? Isn't it already bad enough that he's stealing the Dodgers' money? I would say that Dodger fans have every right to be angry whenever this overpriced deadweight waddles in to lose yet another game for their team.
Those of you who want to kid yourselves into thinking you're taking the "higher ground" by saying "let's not hold him responsible for his performance; let's coddle him until he somehow finds motivation to pitch to his potential again" -- don't come back here in late September when the Dodgers finish 2 or 3 games out of a playoff spot and say "If only we hadn't let Perez continue to lose games for us, we might have had a chance." We waited all last season for Odalis to get better. We've waited nearly half the season this year. If Perez needs to "find himself", he can do it in Las Vegas or Jacksonville.
I'm just thinking of which "top of the rotation" pitcher Neddy might be targeting if it's not Dontrelle (and I don't see why the Marlins would trade him this season). Smoltz is one obvious target. Tim Hudson? Carlos Zambrano? There aren't that many likely candidates out there, who aren't also involved in pennant races of their own.
184 - Phil Hughes is the one name I've heard, but Yankee prospects kinda scare me. Anyone heard from Eric Duncan recently?
I don't think the Yankees trade ARod, at least not until he goes 0-for-the-playoffs. I think the Yankees realize what they have with him.
Who should take OP's starts that we know would do better? Assuming Perez can/should revert a little bit to a league average pitcher instead of this joke.
If the Dodgers have another pitcher that will likely pitch better than OP for the remainder of the season, then by all means please pitch that guy. Unfortunately, I'm not sure who that is is.
The AnyonebutOP argument doesnt fly when there isnt anyone else better that could take his place.
11.5 million in 2007.
7 million dollar option for 2008 with a 500,000 buyout. Automatically recieves nine million in 2008 if he reaches 550 PAs in 2007.
Navarro is a player "without much power" but one who does have good plate patience, as seen in his bb%, ct%, and Eye (bb/k).
Navarro AB Avg bb% ct% h% Eye PX
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2003-aa 208 .338 7% 90% 36% 0.83 109
2004-a/a 391 .259 10% 88% 29% 0.89 73
2005-LA* 417 .247 10% 91% 26% 1.31 61
2006-LA 75 .280 13% 76% 35% 0.61 68
2006-aaa** 40 .175 7% 82% 21% 0.43 n/a
* includes MLEs
unadjusted minor league stats
The lack of power has stayed with Navarro this season, but some of the plate patience -- specifically, his ct% -- has gone AWOL. Navarro's low AB total with LA is due to a strained hamstring in Spring Training followed by a bone bruise on his right wrist that sent him to the DL in early May; from there, Navarro was optioned to Triple-A. All in all, Navarro is not an inspiring player. His one apparent asset, Avg, looks like it was driven by a high h% in 2003 and a similarly high h% this year in his 75 AB in the Majors.
The Pirates could use a guy like that.
Hendrickson, 32, is the centerpiece of the deal for the Dodgers. He was profiled two weeks ago by HQ analyst Andy Andres, who noted that his base skills weren't quite on par with his glossier surface stats. The question becomes, does the change of scenery and team increase his value? Here are his BPIs to date:
Year IP Ctl Dom Cmd hr/9 ERA WHIP
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2004 183 2.3 4.3 1.9 1.0 4.81 1.40
2005 178 2.5 4.5 1.8 1.2 5.90 1.55
2006* 90 3.4 5.1 1.5 1.0 3.81 1.28
The move from Tampa to southern California won't help the soft-tossing lefty. Dodger stadium boosts HRs by righty batters by 7% while Tropicana Field reduces homers by 14%. And Hendrickson is by far more prone to righty HRs. So far this year, eight of the 10 dingers he's allowed were to right-handed batters. Last year, it was 21 of 24.
Maybe Houlton?
But are you positive that Odalis Perez will continue to throw 6.50 ERA type ball for the remainder of the season? That seems highly unlikely, considering his career. Unless OP is hurt, or washed up like Nomo (and Nomo lost velocity thats why he stunk, I havent seen the physical problems with OP) then its probalby not worth trying.
What does Dom stand for, and roughly how are Ctl, Dom, and Cmd determined?
By "give back" do you mean throw up?
It is Hooters and the chain is named after owls isn't it? I mean that's part of the logo?
And don't owls regurgitate food to feed their young?
But I think at worst he'll put up a 5.00 ERA for the remainder of the year. Now that is definitely brutal and needs replacing.
However, who replaces him? Houlton/Orenduff make sense.
Apart from that, I dont see anyone else available worth trading for or that is currently on the team to try and upgrade that spot.
225 - But of course, it is species-correct.
Command Ratio (Cmd)
Purpose & Meaning
This is a measure of a pitcher's raw ability to get the ball over the plate. There is no more fundamental a skill than this, and so it is accurately used as a leading indicator to project future rises and falls in other gauges, such as ERA. Command is one of the best gauges to use to evaluate minor league performance. It is a prime component of a pitcher's base performance value.
Benchmarks
Baseball's upper echelon of command pitchers will have ratios in excess of 3.0. Pitchers with ratios under 1.0 — indicating that they walk more batters than they strike out — have virtually no potential for long term success.
Formula
( Strikeouts / Walks )
---------------------------------------------
Dominance Rate (Dom)
Purpose & Meaning
Used in the BPV formula, it measures how many strikeouts a pitcher allows per game equivalent.
Benchmarks
The best pitchers will have k/9 levels of 6.0 or more.
Formula
(K Allowed x 9 / IP) - Opposition Strikeouts per Game
----------------------------------------------
Control Rate (Ctl)
Purpose & Meaning
Measures how many walks a pitcher allows per game equivalent.
Benchmarks
The best pitchers will have bb/9 levels of 3.0 or less.
Formula
(BB Allowed x 9 / IP) - Opposition Walks per Game
Whlie we all look at the starting pitching as the reason for the downfall during this series, this team will have to win this year with its offense. They average over 5 runs a game and that is how they will have to do it this year.
Quite bony they were.
Me (I'm only 170 lbs)
You (I think)
Broxton
Houlton
Sigh, is it the Angels series yet?
And Bingo was his name-o
Carew was at .394 in 1977.
More Broxton, less OP/Tomko = fewer relievers entering in the 4th. Besides, with HENDRICKSON starting, in time Tomko/Billingsley/Perez might become a guy that can be brought in to pitch 3 innings and save the pen.
The teams that the Dodgers face the rest of the year.
Angels
Arizona
SF
StL
SD
Was
Cin
Fla
Col
Milw
NYM
Chi
Pitt
Now will they face a Schmidt, Peavy, Willis, Pedro, Carlos Zambrano, Prior and Webb, probably but not a combination like the last two games.
So is this a reality check sure, but then again the Cards have lost 8 straight to Detroit, White Sox and the Indians so what kind of check is that for them?
A bounced one.
"Well you don't want to go raga..."
Where did those folks go, anyway?
Todd Helton was at .397 on 8/28/00 but hit .270 thereafter to finish .372.
John Olerud was at .392 on 8/25/93 and hit .245 thereafter to finish .363.
Film at eleven.
Meanwhile, Ned will trade a prospect for another lousy veteran.
Forgetting that he already extended Kent's contract, Ned will add an additional year to it. Kent will continue to ride motorcycles during the offseason without a helmet.
If that's a strike, then Izturis will never walk again.
vr, Xei
(Steve says the moment they signed him)
Unless he just can't hit at all but he'd have to be pretty bad to offset his glove.
I had us as a team good enough to win the NL West and I still think that is true. No one in the NL is any good this year except for the Mets and they could easily lose Pedro and then your not exactly scared about that rotation heading into a short series. Were not good enough to win the West easily but hopefully when the dust settles we will be on top but I wouldn't expect more then 88 wins.
Yep. And Hendrickson will get off to a good start, prompting "Ned is a genius" responses from certain populations. Then reality will set in (see: Seo, Baez, Tomko, etc.).
I'd be happy with 2 of 3. I was thinking sweep earlier bc the Angels arent very good, but the pitching matchups arent favorable I dont think.
Why is the NL so bad right now? I think you're right, the Mets are the only team that seriously scares AL teams. Right now more of the talent, pitching and otherwise, seems to weight towards the AL.
The Angels are playing the Padres? :-)
Other than the Pirates, who do we match up favorably with? And I'm talking Major Leauge teams here.
Remember, after Nomar hit the grand slam vs Houston, he went 4-17, including 0-6 the next day. Don't worry about the slumps.
That's too bad because I remember a while back we had a game with the Bad News Bears here and I thought our pitching matched up okay with theirs.
Thats true. I was just thinking that when Penny/Lowe pitch in the same series, its favorable. Lowe could pitch Sunday, but he isnt scheduled to yet. I bet he will if the Dodgers lose the first two games.
All Joe Nathan fantasy owners give a shout out to the Killer Tomato!
Sure its not much but I think scoring those runs will make the plane ride a little less quiet.
Now if they can come back against Nathan.......
Why didn't Grady PH Drew or Nomar for Alomar and move the DH to catcher or bring in Hall (assuming he's with the team by now)? Can you move the DH to a position during the game? I would think so.
Hall is not with the team.
If Martin were to come in to catch, then the pitcher would have to bat in Alomar's spot.
Maybe Grits really believes he's a .350 hitter.
Interesting.
Unsurprising:
http://tinyurl.com/jk2hn