This is going to be one tough division over the next decade. Looks like it'll be four promising younger teams and one perennial last-place Giants club.

As if we would do such a thing.

:)

"Alderson was a newcomer to baseball– he had argued a few arbitration cases for the A's as an attorney, but had no other industry experience. (He was hired full-time by team president Roy Eisenhardt simply for his pure intelligence, which, thanks to Alderson's future success, has gone from blasphemous to commonplace.)

Alderson had read Bill James' then-obscure Abstract and was encouraged by the rationality they contained. A former Marine infantry officer who served in Vietnam – he had such a steely look that a recruitment poster with his picture asked for a few good men like him – Alderson was drawn to the dispassionate logic with which baseball could be analyzed.

"I'm sitting there, an outsider to baseball, and I have to develop a philosophy, a basis for decision making," Alderson said. "I was searching around for ideas. I was ripe for these kinds of things."

http://tinyurl.com/jep2d

Its a good move for both parties.

Interesting that the Matt Bush fiasco happened and then the Padres hired Sandy Alderson the next year. No way that happens now.

If I were Towers, I'd feel a little pressure.

Now they have signed all of their top 10 picks from this year and they have signed something like 25-27 players all together we'll see how it works out.

I think the thing they have to figure out is why the club can't draw like it did when the park opened even though they have been in contention for the last couple of years.

No fun at all.

DePo will probably be able to help rebuild the team, but the Padres won't threathen us for at least a couple of years.

"Alderson is very much a hands-on baseball man, and it was clear Towers would not enjoy the same autonomy he once had. So, even though he has a year left on his contract with San Diego, he was given permission to interview for the Arizona job."

I'd say there is a pretty good chance that Towers is not Alderson's man in San Diego.

I went back and looked at the Bush debacle and decided that Duck was right, it would not happen today.

Oh well. I'll just have to hope that Bill Plaschke was right about him all along.

The real winner in all this will be Scott Erickson. He'll pitch great in Petco.

If we didn't have so many outfielders, I wouldn't be surprised if Depo's Padres were to trade Roberts to the Dodgers, getting much more in return than he got from the Red Sox the first time he traded Dave.

Really, the DePo love around here was highly predicated on the theory that he would bring sabermetrics into Chavez Ravine. The fact of DePo's reign does not comport with the myth or the promise. He brought a little bit of saber-thinking, but not so's you notice all that much, and not that much more than Colletti, who doesn't talk the talk but seems to walk the walk. DePo screwed up royally not tossing Tracy out on his ear much earlier. As an executive, that was a major mistake, which the goings-on in Pittsburgh only underscore. Tracy was garbage, but DePo thought he'd be a nice guy and give him a chance. Suicidal blunder.

The main thing DePo did right was avoid trading key prospects. Colletti has hardly deviated from that plan, which I think is in fact McCourt's plan. McCourt wants a cheap, first-place team.

Yeah, the Giants are really going to miss Colletti!

Reg, if I recall, in March you were very pessimistic about the Padres' chances this year and down the road. I disagreed strongly on both scores, and still do.

Their evaulation skills are respectable. So are their developmental skills. Frankly, they are smarter about finding and developing pitchers than the Dodgers are.

Look at the young pitching: Peavy is 25. Young is 27. Hensley is 26. Not shabby. Combined, those three are making about $2.8 million. The everyday talent isn't great, but they have a pretty fair young nuclues with 1B Gonzalez (24), 2B Barfield (23), SS Greene (27) and OF candidate Johnson (25). As a whole, the team's run-suppression talent is strong.

As for their farm system, the Athletics of Alderson and Fuson developed processes that worked. There are signs some of that success is being replicated and the Padres probably have more money to spend than the A's did. Depo should help.

I spoke with a former Angels team President recently who said that Sandy Alderson is the best and brightest executive he'd ever met.

A year and a half ago, I would have bet the Dodgers would go on a Braves-like run because of their stocked farm system and disciplined management, plus the idiocy of the Padres and Giants. Then, the Dodgers got dumber and the Padres got smarter with Alderson and now DePodesta.

I worry.

While the Padres do a better job of evaulating pitching talent than the Dodgers, who doesn't? Who was the last starter the Dodgers developed? My memory might be failing me here, but I think the answer is Chan Ho Park.

I really don't have much clue about the Padres farm system, I'm just going by what BA tells me, and they say they have less top end talent than almost any other team in baseball. While they may be good talent evaluators, they have to acquire that talent first, and that can take years. The Padres may be building towards something, but their goal is still years away.

I find it interesting that the Angels' hitters, braised in the thin air and small parks of the PCL, Texas League, and Cal League, all have stumbled in the Show, while it seems like the reverse is largely true for the Dodgers' pitching prospects.

The A's AAA park at Sacramento has very similar park factors to their home in Oakland; I wonder that this is even considered when teams look for minor league affiliates.

Incidentally, why is the Cal League a hitter's paradise while most MLB parks on the West Coast are hitters' graveyards? (Dodger, Petco, SBC-or-whatever-it's-called-this-week, Safeco, Oakland)

They chose local Mission Bay HS SS Matt Bush when they had the #1 overall pick in 2004 out of signability concerns, yet gave him a $3.15M bonus anyway, passing on Verlander ($3.12), Humber ($3M), Niemann ($3.2M), Little Weave ($4M), and Stephen Drew ($4M). Admittedly, the guys I compare him with signed Major-League deals worth more than just their bonuses so the bonuses alone aren't the best point of comparison, but the differences aren't too huge.

Bush also hasn't OPSed above .600 at any level in appx 2 full minor league seasons. To give a small guy like that $3.15M when for an additional, say, $2M you can have a Verlander or Stephen Drew?

Decision-making of the caliber exhibited in the 2004 draft is why their system is awful.

Ask Yankees fans who #1 is.

When there is nothing positive to say about either player, I've have to go with the one who didn't get hurt.

Reg, trusting BA's top 100 is not a great way to evaluate a rival's farm system and perhaps led you astray in March and again now. Tiny example: Hensley wasn't even ranked among San Diego's top 10 prospects last year (probably wasn't among their top 20)and played a role in their winning the NL West.

K. Greene, for the dollar, is still a solid value. I'm far more partial to Dewan's defensive ratings, so my defensive valuation is gong to be higher than the one you're using.
He's definitely outfielded Furcal this year for $12.6 million less in salary. He's also outslugged him. And as you stated, this isn't his best season. His rookie season was pretty special. Anyway, reliable SSs who are cheap and can slug are a good thing. Not many out there.

Comparing Adrian Gonzalez to Loney vastly understates what Gonzalez has done, is doing and will do. He's hit 11 home runs as a regular at Petco this year. How many HRs does Loney have at Vegas? Gonzalez is 24, cheap, showing pretty good power, a good glove.

It ain't the same ballpark as Bush. Heck, it ain't even the same #### sport.

PETCO, Dodger Stadium, and Telecommunications Company Park are all essentially at sea level, and SF and SD have somewhat cavernous dimensions to boot.

Humidity may have some effect on the reactivity of the ball itself, but has no effect on its flight once hit.

That is extremely false, at least if you believe Robert Adair in "The Physics of Baseball."

I'll try to find a link to the article I referenced.

Give it a couple weeks

While it's tremendously unfair to put such pressure on a young kid, then label him as a "bust" when his talent doesn't match expectations, much of it goes beyond empirical data. I can't think of a single draft pick in my lifetime more heavily publicized than Brien Taylor.

Depending on how Dewan rates Greene, I might be more confident in him, but he has to get back to somewhere near his rookie level production. But he had a low line drive percentage (18.6) coupled with a high (.313) BABIP, suggesting that a lot of little grounders found holes. I don't know if he can get enough hits to raise his on base.

As for the farm team, I just took at glance at it and from what I saw, it's not good. AAA is filled with major league rejects like Jack Cust and Bobby Hill with only one pitcher of note, Cla Meredith, who works out of the bullpen. AA has some decent players, but no one that looks to be able to be a big contributer anytime in the near future. Of course, I just glanced at this, so I could have easily missed something.

While I do like the Padres a little more now, I don't see how they can compete with the Dodgers and the Diamondbacks any time soon.

Give it a couple weeks

http://www.exploratorium.edu/baseball/howfar3.html

Wait, I guess we don't have him anymore. How about Tydus Meadows?

"Greene is a very good defender despite having only average range and arm for the position. He has superb instincts, always positions himself well and has a quick release that makes up for his lack of arm strength. He is also very smooth turning double plays. His 2004 rating (-4) is probably closer to his true talent level than 2005's. And take a look at that home/road split (-15 at home, +1 on the road). There may be park effects involved that we don't yet understrand."

(1) Altitude/air density makes the lion's share of difference in ball flight

(2) Higher humidity actually should increase the distance a ball flies for two reasons - H2O vapor is lighter than N2 and O2 molecules and causes the air to be less dense than dry air, and more humid air resists cooling and therefore stays warmer longer.

So, it would seem that you are correct and that humidity does indeed matter, but high humidity would seem to make the ball travel farther than drier air. So, humidity is bad for pitchers.

Maybe I'm misunderstanding the article I'm quoting from memory. Given the point about humidity above, perhaps the author was implying that humidity isn't a factor in preventing home runs at PETCO (since higher humidity air is actually less heavy than dry air) and I took that to mean "humidity doesn't affect a baseball.

I don't vouch for the veracity of the source, but here's a link:

http://tinyurl.com/emarw

Also, he's the current team captain of the Reggie Cleveland All-Stars. That's got to count for something.

http://tinyurl.com/znuyy

Either is great, but Lamar Hoyt...

McCourt saves some money, and DePodesta can go work somewhere else if he wants to.

I also found it interesting that Dewan described Greene as a very good defender, even if Dewan's numbers suggest he's below average. That's one of the things I like about Dewan. He understands the limitations of both subjective analysis, and defensive metrics.

On balance, I'd give Greene a solid grade defensive, while factoring this season into the grade.

"Authorities were trying to determine if the heads found Friday belonged to two decapitated bodies also discovered Friday dumped in a vacant lot..."

http://tinyurl.com/gkcm3

Adam is an upright, honest young man who naturally draws people to him, while Charles has an angry, violent spirit. Charles tries in vain to earn the love of his father, and takes his anger at his failure out on Adam. Adam is sent by his father into the army as a sign of his love, but Cyrus keeps Charles close to home, knowing that war would release something dangerous and violent in his other son.

Adam wanders for many years across the country after his service, and some of the most lyrical passages in the book describe his life as a tramp, closely mirroring Steinbeck's own experiences during the Depression. Finally he returns to the farm and exists in uneasy partnership with Charles until the mysterious Cathy arrives. The more astute Charles quickly realizes her true nature, but innocent Adam marries her and they move to California. ...

Endquote.

So really, "The Weavers" is not an East of Eden story. It's an original tale, perhaps not stranger than fiction, but still strange.

As for Depo, I guess if you can't get Giles to come to you, you go to Giles.

Hothead older brother self-destructs
Cooler, calmer younger brother carries the flame.

No Weavers can be Fredo, because Jae Seo is Fredo.

"Backdraft" has some themes that might translate well. Except that Kurt Russel died a hero, and Jeff Weaver got DFA'd.

With the DFA, Jered just went from "Jer. Weaver" to "Weaver" on ESPN's ticker.

SLG%
Dave Roberts: .432
Giles: .385

Has Giles' name ever come up in discussion of steroids/HGH/etc.?

In this case, baseball is being analogized through The Godfather.

Maybe it's just because he's getting old and plays in a huge ballpark at sea level? Sometimes players just decline. It happens.

An inquiring mind wants to know.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/columnists/040224callis.html

2006-02-07 15:54:1367. LAT
65. The point you raise about playing in LA, IMO, applies more to Jeff Weaver than anyone else. When Beltre left he didn't know if he could play elsewhere (softball here for Steve). Weaver has already tried and failed in another league and city. It is a fact there are certian places he can't handle the pressure. He was comfortable here and pitched reasonabbly well when not left in too long. He should be putting himself in a position to succeed here instead of gambling elsewhere for the extra money**I'll laugh my ass off when he gets spanked in the AL, relegated to the bullpen and his little brother takes his spot in the rotation.

You ask that of Brian or Marcus.

http://tinyurl.com/r77r5

IIRC Jim Colborn had "Edwin Jackson" tinkering with his mechanics this spring, and he just got optioned to AAA Las Vegas.

Where the DT folk fall on this argument may tell me more about this gang than anything...

And that was hilarious.

Isn't there a theory that dry air hurts pitchers because it makes it harder to get a good grip on the ball, giving you less spin and therefore less break? Or is that a theory only in my head?

no? oh..my bad.

(sarcasm meter level at 11) scale 1-10.

The computer is named Billy.

Anybody know the lineup yet?

Kershaw mad his professional debut today.

Why was Kershaw mad? Did he do poorly?

What a bust! I'm mad, too.

and Frenchie Ks!

Corcoran's looked good so far. But he's another TB player - wouldn't it be beyond the point of ridiculousness if we traded for yet another Devil Ray?

A Klondike Bar!

Hey, Jonathan Meloan's numbers in Columbus look pretty good. 6BB's, 31 K's. Low ERA.

Hm, why does Columbus only have 3 OFs on their roster.

Also, does anyone know if Nic Akins signed and if he's playing anywhere yet?

I'm going to play against type on this one, and shut this door quietly

For Tim Conway, I would give you Mary Hartman-era Martin Mull straight up.

Michael McKean is a prospect from that era I might have dumped early, thinking that "Lenny" was his peak, only to see him blossom later on.

132 - I knew he could.

Can you imagine the OBP he'll have if he bats as Dorf everytime?

97 What I want to know is how much time did you spend hunting that comment down?

132 Speaking for young Ryan, I can only say, "Frank made me do it stupid busted Hit n Runs with Royce Clayton at the plate."

Fernwood 2-Nite, I mean, come on.

If LAT is anything like me, he prints out a hard copy of every one of his DT posts and glues it to his living room wall.

I mean, I'm not the only one, right?

Martin Mull has power potential, but I just don't see the OBP there that Tim Conway brings to the table. McHale's Navy and Carol Burnett.

http://tinyurl.com/f8qz6

Reports have surfaced ... that the Dodgers -- whom Weaver pitched for last year -- are in need for a pitcher and might be willing to give their former starter another chance.

That's an option. Wouldn't be any stranger than when Benito Santiago wore 09.

I thought I was getting Conway and Lawrence and giving up Mull.

I won't do the reverse deal. That's for Jim Bowden.

I should offer that to the Angels GM.

Troll!

Are these other GMs actual people? I was envisioning some kind of PS2 game or something.

Do you understand the depth it takes to play an old lady when one is merely a middle-aged lady?

What DTer can claim to have interviewed Logan White not once but twice in the 1980s?

From 2/26/2004, when the site like the team was blue...

-------------------------------------------

I used to be a sportscaster and my first job was in Silver City, New Mexico. The college in town was Western New Mexico University which competed at the NAIA level with pretty good success. I got there the year after (the?) Logan White left.

Logan went on to the minor leagues in the Yankee system. He came back to visit when WNMU made it to the postseason. He had all of us captivated. The way he related his experiences made me think that this was a guy who would coach one day. He was a right-handed pitcher who said he could throw left-handed faster than Tommy John but he wasn't bragging. His point was that you could be effective without great velocity. One player was incredulous and asked how can a guy throw that soft (John) and be effective. "Throws a million different pitches; all of them for strikes." I knew a little more about sports than the guys on the bus and Logan and I talked afterward and had a great conversation.

Now, fast forward two years. I'm in Alaska doing play-by-play for the North Pole Nicks (as in Santa Claus. Seriously.) By the by, our team had Eric Karros, Luis Gonzalez and Jim Campanis, grandson of you-know-who. The team played an exhibition game against Athletes in Action. I'm over in the dugout trying to familiarize myself with guys I've never heard of and I see their assistant coach who looked like a lot of assistant coaches. He was a little dumpy, seemed a lot older and as I got closer, I was a little surprised because it was Logan White. Gone was the physique of a professional baseball player and long gone was the energy he had in van just two years ago.

I tried to jog his memory, told him we shared a van after his Yankee spring training and he kind of winced and said, "Yeah, well, I blew out my arm and it's a blessing because I wasn't a very good Christian and I'm a husband now... I don't pitch anymore." He didn't remember me and he gently but emphatically excused himself.

The game starts and the Nicks are killing them which was expected--I think AIA only brought a partial squad. Anyway, late in the game, Logan White took the hill. He looked very, very reluctant to pitch but he did. It was like watching the present-day Muhammad Ali in a boxing match--painful but you can see the skill that was there. His pitches looked like soap bubbles and he only lasted a couple of batters. I was pretty excited because I had a lot of biographical information on him.

After the game, the AIA athletes gave the Nicks their phone numbers in case they wanted to talk about Christianity. I think it was something they had to do. Anyway, Logan gave me his. I didn't use it as I wasn't intersted in Evangelical Christianity and frankly, he didn't seem all that enthused about where he was. I never thought I'd hear about him again.

Until he started drafting High School pitchers for the Dodgers. If it is the same Logan White, I'm happy for him.

And maybe steal his shoes.