Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
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TV and more ...
1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
It's so rare for a print journalist to challenge the wisdom of Dodger general manager Ned Colletti, but Keven Chavez of the Whittier Daily News does:
(Mark Hendrickson's) pitches seemed to vary between slow and straight, and medium-fast and straight, fooling few Angels batters ... if this was truly what the Dodgers expected, as (Grady) Little said, then general manager Ned Colletti might want to borrow Adam Sandler's remote control and rewind back to the moment he made this latest deal.
In fact, the Devil Rays appear to be becoming Colletti's personal version of eBay, where he can overpay for someone else's junk. But instead of using a PayPal account, Colletti is making his purchases with the team's most valuable currency - their young prospects.
Colletti gave up 22-year-old former catcher of the future Dioner Navarro and 28-year-old pitcher Jae Seo for two players who play the same positions, are older, more expensive and certainly have less room to improve.
I'm not trying to reignite the days-old debate on this week's trade, but again, just commenting on how rare this point of view was in the papers.
* * *
Seriously though, it's nice to see someone question a trade, but as you mentioned it's also premature to judge the results. I'd like to point out that while the Baez/Jackson trade looked egregious at the time, it may have just been one man's junk for another's. Nobody from that trade is performing at an acceptable rate.
Which is not to say you discount the amount of Baez's salary when reviewing that trade, but if Navarro goes south then this trade is more of the same - underperformers for underperformers.
Then again, that's pretty sad if that is the BEST case scenario for the Dodgers.
Something to look forward to.
And its getting to be an all to framiliar story. I wouldn't mind giving these guys up if we were getting something in return. But after Ned has spent the second tier prospects, will he stop. Depo ain't never coming back but I would be happy if Dan Evens were the GM right now.
http://shop.mlb.com/product/index.jsp?productId=2405400&clickid=body_featitems_txt
Go to "Please Choose" to find the team. Credit goes to the ESPN Dodger Board.
http://tinyurl.com/rm8pn
http://www.yourlocalnews.net/Midvalleynews/View.aspx?storyid=8463
Besides, I've got a White Sox fan at my work telling me that Ozzie is threatening to pick 7 Sox and Thome's the only one listed (leaving Dye, Konerko, Crede, Pierzynski, Contreras and Jenks in the cold - not that all those guys should make it).
14 - Miggy C has played 3B all year, and Soriano could easily be another 2B...I seem to remember that Pujols guy breaking in at 3rd also...
Unless Soriano were allowed to play a position in the All-Star Game that he hasn't played in the regular season, we're still looking at only two middle infielders.
Flanders is an idiot!
Colletti himself used to be a sportswriter. He's part of the media fraternity himself.
The media sees him as one of their own, so its highly unlikey they are going to rip a friend.
Its kinda strange but I see a parallel in the print media/blogs, to that of the mid 90's with CNN/Fox News. Fox News has far surpassed CNN in terms of viewership now, bc people obviously got tired of the spin at CNN. I think that war is being raged right now in the print media/blog medium. Print media columnists are being tuned out in favor of more analytical and well thought out works of the bloggers.
So whatever Bill Plaschke writes, it doesnt bother me. I can get news, opinion, and entertainment from better sources anyway.
Well, in terms of the immediate impact, sure. But don't forget the effect on payroll, which affects future, even near-future, decisions, and the fact that the set of underperformers with room and time to improve is the set going away from Los Angeles, while the set more likely to get even worse (due to age) is the set coming here.
When you trade new for old, the effect on the 25-man roster had better not be a wash. Higher costs and higher discount rates mean they'd better be worth a lot more immediately to be worth trading for.
Lofton
Nomar
Drew
Kemp
Ethier
Martinez
Martin
Izturis
Ultra scrappy lineup today.
Lofton the DH again.
Kent the day off.
4 Banjos
3 Drums
1 Sax
1 Piano
Nomar-Drew-Ethier is enough to get a run. Thats all the Dodgers need.
You're kidding me, Grady puts Lofton as the DH instead of Kent? Ugh, can we please put our best hitters (i.e. Kent, Saenz) in the DH instead of Lofton?
Well, the point is that I would rather have Saenz or Kent instead of Lofton.
I'm guessing you don't have disability insurance do you?
A professor of mine was in News Corp.'s boardroom when Ruperty Murdoch announced his plans for a conservative cable news channel in the US, claiming that there was a tremendous market opportunity since none of the news channels reported news from a conservative stance.
News providers are out to make money. The politics is secondary.
News providers are out to make money. The politics is secondary.
That is the conventional wisdom but I do not buy it. Since Fox is so successful why hasn't another network followed suit...like so many have in radio with all the conservative commentators?
Besides, (argument time) Fox is more center than conservative.
Want conservative, try Michael Savage.
Its early but certainly one of his best innings and his best first inning in Chad's 5 starts.
On the other hand, I will be happy to end this stretch of facing good starting pitching and go back to the National League West.
hell just froze over.
That's a logical question. The answer is simply that they can't compete with Fox for conservative viewership. That's what Fox News's whole brand identity is tied up in; it's what they're good at. That's not true for CNN or other cable outlets. Do you think a Fox viewer is going to switch back to watching CNN just because CNN adopts a more conservative flavor to its product? To conservative viewers, CNN's brand is "typical liberal BS" and Fox is "finally, a fair look at the news" (I admit this is a sweeping generalization). If CNN goes conservative, Fox viewers don't care since they already got a product they like, and CNN's current viewership goes somewhere else for news because they don't like to new product. Then CNN has nothing.
Instead of competing where they can't win CNN keeps on fighting for their core audience. Since they ignored their market and allowed Fox a place to enter and thrive, that audience is a lot smaller than it once was.
How did Orlando Cabrera steal home?
As with Cabrera's steal, the key in both plays was somebody screwing up.
Thats inexcusable for a little leaguer.
Remember in '92 when Piazza went to the mound without calling time? That also ended in an unchallenged steal of home.
You would think a team like the Angels would have tried a delayed double steal in that time. Especially since they have had some fast guys in the last few years.
Hilarious that the All Stars were leaked. How did 5 Red Sox make the team?
Nice to see Nomar and Penny on the team.
Because they are America's team. Don't you read the Boston papers?
I just can't get over how and/or why Izturis continues to get penciled in on the lineup card every day. The goal on a nightly basis should be to put the best lineup possible out there...and having Izturis in there doesn't give us our best lineup. When we're back playing in the NL only it'll literally be like having two pitchers hitting...and that's a recipe for disaster especially with how our pitching has been performing....
We have liked seen the first and last person to steal home against Chad Billingsley.
I think Whitey Ford should have never pitched again after Jackie Robinson stole home against him in the 1955 World Series.
Bc paying attention is easier than throwing strikes.
1) walk a lot of guys
2) give up a lot of home runs
3) throw away every ball that he fields
But if he doesn't pay attention and allows a steal of home once, he gets strung up like a horse thief?
Sometimes I feel like I'm reading "The Ox-Bow Incident" here.
And by the way, what is the velocity on Billingsley's fastball today? He's getting more swings and misses than he was in past games.
or our lineup looks damn bad. Either way, it's not good.
I have a feeling if any big prospects get traded he's going to be the one.
How did Carl Crawford not make the team?
Are these numbers not all star worthy:
.315/.359/.510 12 HR 27 SB
There are some flaws, Santana's inability to win on the road, Escobar had a long losing streak and Colon is still not quite back.
It was their pitching that kept them in games last year, so when they get ineffective starting pitching, they don't have the offense to make up for that.
According to the splits on Yahoo sports, the answer is yes.
Coming into the game, hitters had a BA of .222 after Billingsley had a 2-0 count. Three hits, two walks, and one K.
...but we need a bat in this lineup.
Losing Mueller really hurts.
84 Andrew Shimmin
>>>Allowing a steal of home is not as bad as giving a walk with the bases loaded.<<<
I think that is a big factor in Seo being traded...that Oakland extra inning game.
103 That sounds like us, except for the part about pitching keeping us in games.
105 Those stats sound contradictory, although I guess they could work out.
I have a feeling that JD Drew isn't going to opt out of his contract
Vlad HR, I'm outta here, see you guys tomorrow night.
Vlad is just good.
That does add up. I was up mighty early today and all the numbers run together right now.
When's Rafael Furcal Voodoo Doll night at the ravine?
That reminds me that I did not win the silent auction for the Odalis Perez autographed baseball. I put in the minimum bid of $20, but someone else had bid $22 before I left.
The money did go to ALS research, so it's not like it would have been an entirely frivolous purchase.
Its kinda of tempered enthusiasm bc he was facing the Halos.
But the swing and misses were encouraging.
There's a great deal of pitching value to be gleaned off the amateur market that falls between "junkballers" and guys with "high upside."
The Dodgers have failed miserably and inexcusably in this area and are again paying a big price for it.
A franchise with their resources should be able to draft for "high upside" yet also produce a respectable number of Nos. 3-5 starters.
Their inability to meet this not-so-high bar reduced the leverage of past and present GMs who forever are panting desperately for "proven" pitchers. So you end up flushing $24 million on Odalis, $9 million on Tomko. So you end up trading young, if dubious talent for the likes of Hendrickson. And there will be more of this to come.
When's the last time the Dodgers produced a couple of No. 4 starters? It shouldn't be that hard. Lots of clubs do it.
2000 23
2001 11
2002 27
2003 31
2004 24
2005 15
2001 he only played in 79 games.
Looks like last year was an aberration.
But I agree with you that the organization shoudl be good enough to produce #4/#5 instead of wasting cash on Tomkos/Seos/Hendricksons. Houlton didnt even come from the Dodgers, and EJ didnt start that much. Yeah, its been awhile since the team produced a 4/5. I think Ketchner could have been, if he had stayed healthy at least.
Loney is on fire. 2-3 2b, hr his OPS is up to 979. pretty good for a 22 yr old non prospect.
We never spoke before the Dodgers guaranteed $24 million on Odalis. You don't have to believe me. But I thought it was huge overpay at the time and tended to believe they were mostly bidding against themselves.
Odalis had some alarming work loads earlier in his career. His conditioning was suspect. His offfield behavior was said to be detrimental to his health and focus. His injury chart, which already included reconstructive elbow surgery, was getting more ink by the year. His pitch quality was in decline.
Market value? It was an inflated market, as the free-agent market tends to be for starting pitchers.
My central point, and I guess we agree, is the Dodgers enter into these decisions with far less leverage than they should becuase they fail to produce a respectable portion of their own starting pitching.
Why do you refer to Loney as a non-prospect?
He's gotten more ink than a young Wes Parker.
Perfect description of Dorothy Parker.
The Magic 8-ball says
"Ask Again Later"
Pretty decently, probably only 2 earned run in 6 innings, quality start, bad defense, and he let someone steal home.
I think Loney is a propsect. It was just a innocent jab at some of the people here who referred to Loney as a non prospect earlier in the season.
.278/.318/.451
He might actually hit 20 home runs playing half of his games at Petco
That's a joke right?
C'mon, coming into the game, Ethier, Nomar, Kent, Kemp, AND Saenz had a higher OPS.
And we're paying Drew 11 million dollars to have 10 RBIs in 23 games. And he's hitting .256 with runners in scoring position.
The point is that JD Drew is the most overrated player in baseball.
thats because he bats 4th. What are our hitters VORPs?
Padres 2
Giants 2
Arizona 2
Rockies 3
Dodgers 1
But before you start yelling.
Cardinals 0
Mets 1
White Sox 1
Red Sox 2 (Jon Lester)
Yankees 1
Angels 2 (Jered)
Its true that the Dodgers have not done a great job in producing pitchers but that is a industry wide problem, I will say that injuries and changing starters to relivers (Miller, Kuo, Orenduff, and Broxton) have set back the impact that these guys could have on the rotation.
It seems like you're using your own perception of Drew, imposing it on everyone else, and then determining that it's far higher than it merits.
If I can do this, I dub Jerry Hairston, Jr. the most overrated player in baseball. Why? Because I have so declared it!
Another AB with a RISP, another K for JD OVERRATED Drew.
Ahh, but let's wait to see how Jerry Hairston does tonight against the Astros!
Hey, this is baseball chat, not existentialist chat.
OPS
DJ: .835
Lucille II: .838
He's getting some awful swings on gameday.
I'm glad I took a nap instead of hurt myself by watching gameday.
Facing Soriano, Santana and Lackey when they are on the top of their game makes for a tough week but as we now hit the midway part at 41-40 and since Izzy coming back the team is 5-5 so you have to ask yourself what lineup changes do you see.
Still, with the mostly somnambulent offense, porous defense (Rafael Saxcal made a horrible throw today that can only be added to the stack of them from yesterday) - overall the pitching this weekend was okay, actually - but a very forgettable two days not just for them but most of the Dodgers and mostly I'm glad this week in baseball is over.
Btw, speaking of horrible things, I watched an episode of Mystery Science Theater this weekend that featured one of the most laughably awful films I've ever seen - Hobgoblins. Must be seen to be believed.
Nes Pa?
Everyone likes to call him one of the best outfielders in the game, but he is thouroughly average.
He is overrated, because we're paying him like he is a top outfielder, but I can think of many better outfielders.
Matt Holiday
Brian Giles
Manny Ramirez
Vlad
Nick Swisher
Brad Hawpe
Jason Bay
Andruw Jones
Jermaine Dye
Vernon Wells
Alex Rios
Carl Crawford
And so on. Most of those are being paid less than Drew. That's one reason I think Drew is overrated.
Kent would likely be quick to tell you that he didn't strike out today.
Your original phrase was "most overrated." You have the burden of proof of showing that there are no other players who are not as overrated.
And your original statement was not limited to outfielders.
It would just be easier to say "I don't think JD Drew is as good as people say he is" instead of tossing out more easily refutable statements.
Then we can do one of three things:
1) trade Izturis for a SP
2) trade Furcal for an overpaid SP
3) trade Kent to the Yankees for the last young guy in the organization
Please have Mr. Drew leave his resume, and we will contact him when the position becomes available.
Meanwhile:
"James" "Lo" "Ney"
"James" "Lo" "Ney"
Or members of the Chicago Cubs.
it's time to be logical here. JD hasn't been playing all that great lately, but to say he's a bad baseball player is just plain wrong and there's nothing to back that up.
We'd all like his numbers to be a little higher, but there's still half a season left.
I just find it ironic that you hate Drew and Furcal so much yet support The Human Out Machine Cesar Izturis. It just doesn't make much sense. Also, the majority of the players you listed there make less than Drew because they haven't hit free agency yet.
Is Drew overpaid? Probably. Is he a BAD player? Certainly not. Okay, I just felt like being Jim Tracy there.
Oh, one last thing...the whole thing about having 45 mill tied up in nothing...that argument can be used the other way too with guys like Mueller, Tomko, Lofton, Baez, Carter, Hall, Hendrickson and the list goes on.
It's one thing to think Drew isn't as good as you think he should be, but to insinuate that he and Furcal are bad players is just ridiculous.
There could be comedic value.
Lucille II: "Don't forget me!"
http://tinyurl.com/lrpwx
draft next year is pretty deep.
1. Kent
2. Bonds
3. Clemens
3. Pierzynski
4. Drew
5. Giambi
Are they still doing that this year?
1.5 back.
15.1 IP, 9 H's, 2BB's, 24 K's, 2.35 ERA
Johnson wasn't drafted this year so he isn't coming directly out of high school, but since he was drafted as a 17-year-old, he is the same age now as most high schoolers drafted this year. His performance is absolutely amazing for an 18-year-old pitcher in a big time hitter's league filled with college hitters. Johnson the Younger is probably the most polished high school pitcher Logan White has drafted in five years, but his ceiling may not be too high.
Steve Johnson might be that solid middle of the rotation starter Dsfan has been begging the dodgers produce. :)
johnson
6IP 3H 0er 1bb 9k
18 yrs old.
Does the AL really need 8 Of'ers?
Liriano should have made it over Gary Mathews Jr.
NL looks about right except for Uggla making it over Nomar. Its an All-Star game. I'm sure Nomar could play 2nd. That, and the Mets fans stuffing the All-Star ballots really is disheartening. The Dodgers have had great attendance. Do LA fans just not vote?
http://tinyurl.com/hchqy
Izturis and Brian Akin for Clay Buchholz, Jermaine Van Buren and Craig Breslow.
When did Rumsfeld begin moonlighting doing movie industry analysis?
What's the word on him? Does he not have plus pitches, but right now only succeeds with great control, which won't do him as much good against better competition?
WWSH
How much does a AA player make, anyhow? Is it enough of a salary to actually live on for a year?
WWSH
Garciaparra is the first Dodger to be among the five candidates in the Monster.com All-Star Final Vote, competing with Bobby Abreu (Philadelphia), Chris Capuano (Milwaukee), Billy Wagner (New York) and Chris Young (San Diego) for the final roster spot on the National League team.
Please vote, and tell your friends to vote, for Nomar as the final member of the NL squad. When you look at the other guys in that company, all solid, but only Abreu should give Nomar any competition. SHOULD. Assuming the mets fans don't stuff the ballot boxes again. Please vote as soon as voting is open.
Ouch.
If I'm 28 and still in AA ball, that's a sign to pack my bags and try my hand at something else. Reminds me of stories of Jim Tracy's day as a newspaper delivery man and some kind of advertising-related salesman after his playing days ended, and before he got into managing.
WWSH
Thanks, Canuck....
WWS
http://tinyurl.com/rnm6r
(I voted for Verlander in the AL, at least the first time.)
Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you Derrick Turnbow.
No no, I really can't accept...
So far, Ive made 3 trades, and probably now, just looking for minor trades, bullpen help etc, unless a player is on the market that previously wasn't.
first trade:
Dodgers trade Odalis Perez+2million to the Mets for 1b Brett Harper. Harper will be sent to AA.
reason I did this trade: Odalis sucks and his contract will hamper my flexibilty in the offseason. Not to mention his attitude is pisspoor. This trade wasn't about getting talent back but rather unloading his contract. 1b Brett Harper isn't anything special although I suppose he could possibly become a Travis Hafner type late bloomer. His power is intriging and we are short on 1b depth in the org so why not right?
Trade #2
Dodgers trade OF Joel Guzman and OF Justin Ruggiano to the Pirates for LHP SP Tom Gorzelanny.
Guzman was hard to trade away because I know full well his massive offensive potential but I really, reallllly like Gorzelanny. I think he is one of the most underrated pitching prospects in baseball right now and he has produced at every level to go along with fantastic stuff. his fb ranges from 89-96, sitting int he 91-93 range with good sink. he has a plus slider he uses as his out pitch and a solid overall change up. His command is very good and is mlb ready right now. After dumping Odalis, Gorzey will take his spot and I have given Little the decision on what to do with him. But overall, his ceiling as a #2 type pitcher, left handed also, is something this team needs.
Trade #3
Dodgers trade Cesar Izturis and reliever RHP Brian Akin to the Red Sox for RHP Clay Buchholz, relievers RHP Jermaine Van Buren and LHP Craig Breslow
I am actually astounded I got a high ceiling arm back from Izturis. I actually asked for Bowden and he countered with Buchholz and we mixed and match the remainding players in the deal. Buccholz is a high ceiling arm with good growth potential still. He hasn't really been challeneged this year pitching in Low A so we are going to bump him up to High A Vero Beach and see how he responds. If he does well, We will probably fasttrack him to AA jacksonville next year where he can join a rotation that consists of Blake Johnson and Scott Elbert. Buccholz just gives us another high ceiling arm to fight the battle war against TINSTAPP.
The two relievers are having good years at AAA pawtucket, both are 25/26 and both have solid K:bb ratios. thats basically what i was looking at. I dont have much a scouting report on either except I know Van Buren has pretty good stuff actually, 90-93mph fb with a plus slider. We need bullpen help so why not, maybe one of them will work out. Both will be sent to AAA las vegas as insurance.
Not to brag or anything but this is what the White Sox GM said after this last trade:
npurcell is a god amongst men. As a Dodger fan, please take over the front office now.
hehe.
All of which just adds credence to my ongoing claim that anyone (yes, anyone) can be a GM. Anyone can make trades and sign free agents. I don't see what the big deal is. And (as teams like Pittsburgh and others demonstrate) it doesn't even matter if your team wins. If some of those morons can do it, I see no reason why someone like Nate can't.
Heck, I wouldn't be a very good GM, just ask my fantasy league. I can say if something is a good or bad move, but when it comes to actually making the moves, I'm pretty terrible.
Im not Colletti, I don't ask around about the Tyler Walkers of the world.
Not gonna offer much of a game report because it wasn't much of a game what with the four tampa bay errors (actually should have been five, but for a friendly ruling on a long hit by Nick Johnson).
Navarro had a rough day, 0-4, 4 men LOB. And he had a rough error -- wild pitch with runners on 2nd and 3rd. He ran it down and tried to scoop the ball back behind me to the plate to get the runner coming in from third , but it sailed into no-man's land allowing the runner from second (the pitcher who had reached on, wait for it, an error) to score as well. Seo was eh.
Always an adventure taking two small kids to the park by yourself (5 yr old, and 16 months). The bigger is getting so he can help out/be flexible, etc., but ain't there yet. Esp. in 95 degree heat. But good fun was had by all. For whatever reason, my bigger had decided on the way there he wanted to see a double play. Got one in the eighth (thank the stars). Walked home, which is really a joy.
Jose Reyes is not a banjo hitter...
haha, i never even thought of that. haha.
Perhaps many haven't hit free agency, but I never said that I am supportive of Izzy. I said that he can't be worse than Aybar, but he is proving me wrong right now.
And I never said Drew was a bad ball player, but he is overrated. Drew is also batting .200 in late inning situations.
I don't remember the speed on Billingsley's pitches, but I think it was pretty high. There were lots of swings and misses today.
By both teams. Lackey's curve was making everyone look silly. Billingsley's slightly less silly.
By the way, did people ever call you "Bobby" when you were younger?
From earlier today:
"166. thinkingblue
Lackey's really good and there were 4 banjos in the lineup. When that happens, what else can you expect?
The point is that JD Drew is the most overrated player in baseball."
You started off with a very sweeping statement.
"Were it only a question of incompetence, of being yet another recyclable in the hermetic ecosystem of bad managerial talent that is pro sports, Isiah would not inspire anything like the enmity he does."
http://www.slate.com/id/2144509
No. And if you call me that, I will put you on one of my lists.
I didn't say anyone can be a good GM, just that anyone can actually make trades and sign players. But there doesn't seem to be any requirement that those transactions work out in your team's favor. I mean, is Bowden a good GM? Is Littlefield?
The fact that many haven't hit free agency makes the argument over what he's paid null and void.
Also, I recall numerous occasions where you've said Izzy is a very good player and should be in the lineup...I guess I could be wrong.
And I never said Drew was a bad ball player, but he is overrated.
No, but you insinuated he was a bad ball player when you included him in your list of salaries we're getting nothing out of. Basically, you were saying he's worthless.
I said that he can't be worse than Aybar, but he is proving me wrong right now.
Aybar is a really nice prospect...if you can't see that then so be it. The fact of the matter is that Izturis is god awful at the plate...no reason not to put the bat in the hands of Aybar to see what he can do on a daily basis...
On a side note to everyone else, I know none of us want to trade for middle relief...but I would honestly dump Izzy on ANY team that would give us a half decent middle reliever back. Just getting that guy out of our lineup would be addition by subtraction.
Also, what's the latest on Weaver?
The Angels think Jered has a promising future.
You left out the part about how he should be sent to the minors because Cabrera stole home.
That was a major theme earlier.
What about "Timmy"?
And did you learn anything at the convention?
Nobody called me that either.
I have posts about the convention on the Griddle.
As for the steal of home, this was in the AP story:
Dodgers catcher Russell Martin said that wouldn't happen again because Billingsley will pitch from the stretch position in the future with a runner at third.
"When he goes into his windup, he has this routine where he steps back and looks down," Martin said. "I guess Cabrera picked it up because as soon as he put his head down, Cabrera took off. And by the time he picked his head up, Cabrera was already starting to slide. So we didn't really have a chance."
Yes, but I didn't glean whether you learned anything particularly eye-opening or whether it was mostly old-hat.
Aybar is an average prospect, while he is better than Izzy, he sometimes hits for average, and has little power.
If anything, I'd rather have LaRoche if he was healthy. I'm just not an Aybar fan-though he is better than Izzy offensively.
And also, no one commented that Guerrero was at the plate. Though obviously this went to extremes, there was every reason to think that Chad was just focused on the batter, which in general is the right idea. Like the Spanish Inquisition, no one expects the steal of home.
The way I see it, Cabrera made a good play. Chad will learn. Life goes on.
I learned that people from the East Coast find the West Coast to be a strange and foreboding place and we're baffled why people in Seattle waited for the light to change before crossing the street.
I learned that Mike Piazza apparently is very good at blocking pitches, but the skill of blocking pitches isn't a very big part of a catcher's effect on a game.
Anyone know anything about this guy I can pass along to the Nationals fans and look smart (or at least, look like I hang around with smart people):
"The Nationals agreed to terms with shortstop Esmailyn Gonzalez of the Dominican Republic on Sunday. The switch-hitting Gonzalez, 16, will earn a $1.4 million signing bonus and report to the Dominican Summer League Nationals this week." http://tinyurl.com/zmdvl
On the contrary: without the catcher, every pitch not put in play would either nail the umpire or go to the backstop...
Did you like Seattle? It's near the top of our "Places we'd consider moving when I finish school" list. I haven't spent much time there, but I generally hear good things about it.
Touché!
I didn't see a whole lot of Seattle, but it's not a cheap place to live despite their being no state income tax.
I've been told that traffic is really bad.
Mike and I encountered quite a few guys who hadn't made it past 1971 it seemed.
"Man, let me tell you how to get to Safeco Field. Man, you walk down this street until you see something that looks like a sunken ship. You can't miss it, man."
We missed it. We found Safeco Field anyway since it's very large.
http://tinyurl.com/h7368
All: What's the general consensus on the All-Star Final Vote? I'm leaning towards voting Verlander and Young, although there is a lot of Nomar love here...
Yeah, the "not cheap" thing is a turnoff, but what big city worth living in is cheap these days?
168-
My comments about Dodgers failures on producing pitchers is directed at the franchise over the past eight years or so, irrespective of regimes. I'm open to what will come, but question how some unfavorable things appear to be recurring.
Chad B's struggles didn't inspire the remark. Variations on this theme have led me to post on the subject a few times. However, Bills probably would be better off if they had done a respectable job of producing decent Nos. 3-5 starters, say, a Lowry, a Jennings, a Lawrence (pre 2004), a Chacon, a Cook, a Russ Ortiz (pre 2005) -- all produced by teams in the NL West.
I'm not asking for the world here. Produce a decent guy or two who can give you some leverage and development time for the high upside guys and curtail the need for goose chases (Perez, Tomko, Hendrickson..) It's almost like No. 4 and 5 gets to be a pejorative with some folks. Sheez, it was Sele, of all people, wo bought Chad B an extra 4-6 weeks, which was a pretty big deal.
Just decent homegrown production in this area and it's reasonable to assume Bills would still be in Triple-A, which I believe would be more favorable to the kid. Right now, he's more thrower than pitcher. When that's the case and you're 21 and in the majors, it's a tough test for the arm and the psyche. Just ask Edwin Jackson, of whom way too much was asked in 2003, possibly to his long-term detriment.
As for the NL, I went with Abreu due to his gigantic on base percentage.
EqA
Abreu .314
Nomar .340
Nomar > Abreu
Portland's a great city.
VABR:
Nomar - 21.945
Abreu - 21.929
It's close, but I probably should have voted for Nomar. I got entranced by the gigantic amount of walks.
Abreu - 23.446
Nomar - 21.944
Abreu wins!
We'll never know, of course, what Aybar would have done had he stayed with the Dodgers. Here's what he has done offensively for Vegas:
Four hits in 32 at-bats for a .125 batting average. Eight reaches in 36 PAs for a .222 on-base percentage. Two home runs, one at home.
My conclusion is that both Willy and the Dodgers are better off that he's spent the last two weeks in Vegas.
We like to watch "House Hunters" on HGTV and saw an episode in West Seattle. The homes looked great. Historic "craftsmen" style in fantastic condition. And I if I remember correctly, they were in the $300k range, which, while not great, is still much less than in many other nice cities.
..., but the skill of blocking pitches isn't a very big part of a catcher's effect on a game.
I'm surprised to read that from you. A catcher who is good at blocking pitches can really help a pitcher with a runner on 3rd.
He is freer to throw pitches in the dirt if he doesn't have to worry about a poor defensive catcher.
I should say "for example".
Best thing in Portland is that homes are in the $250-350K range, less than half than what I'm used to in Ventura County.
Did owning a home in a decent place used to be easier than this?
I remember an article where DePo argued that a team should be constructed by stockpiling cheap league-average guys and saving the huge contracts for legitimate superstars. Unfortunately, his fliers on the likes of Grabowski and Edwards last season didn't work out, and there were just too many holes to fill.
WWSH
The housing market as a whole is probably going to level out. Low rates really drove values up in major metropolitan areas, and things have finally cooled off.
Strangely enough, though, I've seen reports indicating that as a percentage of income, Americans actually pay a smaller mortgage payment than they did in the 1980s, due to the fact that rates have been so low as of late, and that financing is so much more flexible now. Also, cheap housing can still be found in all sorts of places, but in an LA or DC or the Northeast, it's tough for a first-time homebuyer.
In Alhambra, where I grew up, it's almost absurd how expensive a starter home is now. If I had stayed there, I'd probably be still living with my folks to raise the necessary down payment--either, that, or be like my cousin and live in Victorville.
WWSH
This from someone who cares little about the All Star game, except I like seeing the most deserving players make the game (and this year the vote winners were actually more solid than they often are, the Mets fans ballot stuffing notwithstanding).
I just hope to God that AJ Piz doesn't get the nod. Enough with the White Sox already.
We agree on the problem. We possibly disagree on the reasons for it. My guess, and it's only a guess, is that the Dodgers would have called up an unproven No. 4 starter if they believed he could do a decent job.
My sense is that this unfavorable cycle will continue, that they will continue to shop for the Hendricksons and Tomkos of the world, perhaps because they simply doubt the inventory in house. My belief is there are concrete ways to get better at growing the cheaper, younger, better No. 3-5 pitcher such as a Lowry or a Chacon, even a Hennessy -- there apprear to be aspects of process and system at work here, not just randomness and luck, although those are significant when it comes to producing pitchers.
I didn't say it was my opinion.
You can read Sean Forman's work.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/sabr2006/index.html
That's one of the things that excited me about Depo. My expectation was that he would be more effective at finding good value on cheap pitchers, especially the Nos. 4-5 starters who could have given him more leverage.
So, you don't agree?
>>>You can read Sean Forman's work.<<<
Is there a test afterward?
By the way, for the record, overall, except for a few mistakes, I was pretty impressed with Billingsley today. Seems like he's getting better and the adjustment they made in working with him this past week seemed to have helped. Just mho, but I predict his first W will come next game against the Giants.
Night all!
So the series of events here is:
1. I give a brief conclusion from a very long work done by someone else
2. That idea is attributed to me.
3. Then you just come up with your own conclusion without reading the whole work.
2) I just have simple question.
Do you agree with the following statement?
"the skill of blocking pitches isn't a very big part of a catcher's effect on a game."
http://www.baseball-reference.com/sabr2006/index.html
That was cool. Thanks for givingn the link. I was supposed to get to bed early tonight! Now if we just had a retrosheet for comedy.....
Perhaps what your missing is the implied: as compared with the rest of what a catcher does ...the skill of blocking pitches isn't a very big part of a catcher's effect on a game."
1. One might say "Throwing out runners," but isn't it mostly up to the pitcher to prevent stolen bases?
2. One might say "Calling pitches," but isn't it ultimately up to the pitcher to decide which pitch to throw?
3. One might say "Providing a target." I suppose that's important.
Being able to block the ball is a desirable skill, but -
1). How often is it necessary for the catcher to block the ball during the course of the game?
2). When the catcher does need to block the ball, how often does it result in a runner getting an extra base?
If ... you had read the whole thing. Or even skipped to the conclusion, you would have seen that Sean Forman's conclusion was that compared to other aspects of a catcher's defensive skills, such as preventing stolen bases, preventing wild pitches is about 1/4 as important.
According to Forman's paper, Ivan Rodriguez isn't nearly as good as Mike Piazza at blocking pitches, but Rodriguez is so superior in all other aspects of the game (he's allowed about half as many stolen bases as Piazza and thrown out more than Piazza) defensively, that Rodriguez is the superior defensive catcher overall.
I agree. I'm starting to think catchers aren't really all that important on defense. I mean, we're supposed to think that catchers don't really have much influence on pitchers' performance, right? Whenever we see pitchers' stats that are much better for one catcher than for another, we're supposed to chalk that up to chance, right?
Is it possible that some guys just feel more comfortable with a certain catcher working with them? It's a basic idea that isn't easy to quantify with stats.
I'm not even sure if it is a real effect, but it could be.
1. Person one works incredibly hard, finds tons of evidence, and eventually reaches a conclusion that contradicts some theory x.
2. Person two says "psssh, everyone knows that theory x is true."
3. The baseball community listens to person two.
Being able to block the ball is a desirable skill, but -
1). How often is it necessary for the catcher to block the ball during the course of the game?
2). When the catcher does need to block the ball, how often does it result in a runner getting an extra base?
Not to sound unstatistical, but I think anyone with a mitt and a mask could catch the balls that you're supposed to catch, and if you can't catch the balls thrown right at you, you just shouldn't be a catcher.
Martin is great at blocking the baseball, and while, like stealing bases, it isn't a huge deal, it is a very nice ability.
Also, pitchers say that having a good blocker gives them the confidence to throw a breaking ball in the dirt with runners on, knowing the catcher will not let the ball get past him.
Whether this is ture or not, or if it really has a noticable effect on the game, is debatable I suppose. But, it is always better to have a reciever than a retriver.
I appreciate the explanation and synopsis of Sean Forman's work. Thank you.
But, forget that for the time being.
Hey Bob, I have a question for you....:)
Let's just assume (not always a great idea, I know)..
1) Most catchers in college and the minor leagues aren't as good as their major league counterparts.
2) Given 1, most pitchers have worked with a catcher that isn't exactly a great defender.
At some point, pitcher's probably learn to pitch their game regardless of the catcher's ability. A sinker ball pitcher in college or in the minors still has to throw his sinker to be effective.
That's sort of my point.
True, but wouldn't it make sense that a pitcher has more confidence to throw a breaking ball in the dirt with a better blocking catcher?
Yes, but any catcher can do it. If you mean that the most important thing is for the catcher to catch the ball the right way (frame the ball for the ump), then I understand what you mean.
Kevin Brown and Odalis Perez. Twins seperated at birth.
Sure, but pitchers who complain about things like that strike me as being ill-suited to pitch.
Well, I don't hear too many pitchers complain publically of a catchers inability to block the ball.
Also, I didn't quite understand why Kuo with his wildness was brought in with bases loaded. What did Grittle expect other than a bases loaded walk. Grittle sure didn't help Kuo's confidence any by putting him in a position to fail.
Actually I am going to lead him on. Why? Because its 1130 and Im bored. I have no real intention of trading Laroche but he doesn't know that.
JtD is no longer a Dodger. Went to the Pirates in a package for Tom Gorzelanny.
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Where do i get these possibilites? What do you mean? Basically the other GM puts feelers out, or I put feelers out. Scan the market, sees whos available, see which GM is a moron, see which are stubborn. Talk a bit, offer a proposal and work from there. If I cant or they cant agree on equal value I move on.
Hes trying to offer me Hunter but I have no interest in Hunter.
Catching a ball is the most important thing a catcher can do. If a catcher missed every pitch, there's no way you could ever win a game.
With that in mind, anyone who is catching in the majors has at least a decent range of motion can can grab any ball that is thrown somewhere near him. We'll call this area a CA.
Since every catcher is at least reasonably adept at catching balls, and a human can only move so far in .3 seconds, the difference between the best and worst CAs really isn't that much.
Therefore, the only relevant situation is when a ball is inside a catcher's CA, and outside of another catchers. Since this is a relatively small area, this scenario occurs very few times a game.
When this does occur, there has to be runners on base for it to matter. Even then, they still might not actually score. Consequently, a catchers range comes into play very few times a game. Compare this to stealing a base, which is relevant any time there is a man on. The skill just is useful in far more scenarios.
It's not that being able to catch the ball isn't important, it's just that it's very hard to be so much better than someone else that it effects the game to the same extent of being able to throw out runners.
Ohh! thats what you meant! Yea, this is for the minorleagueball.com Trade deadline Simulation.
There is a GM for each team and we basically try to make our rosters better. There is a commish and stuff. We do all of this on an off message board so we dont clutter up minorleagueball.com
Its been really fun. Gives me something to do besides work and DT.
This chump wont even offer Garza for Laroche. He's cut.
I think the original goal was to see how you did compared to how your team does in reality. Our trade deadline is 5 days or a week before the real trade deadline. Who knows though, they might make this an ongoing thing which IMO, would be pretty awesome.
Anyways right now, I am trying to act in the best interest of the Dodgers. I havent decided if Im going to buy significantly yet, or sell significantly. the moves Ive made have been just tinkering with the hopeful thought of them helping us now but definately helping us in the future.
Just like the real Dodgers, Ive been searching for pitching left and right. I do have some players in mind that I do like and would like on this team, but we'll see if I can do that without not giving up too much :)
"I didn't hear anything being said," Billingsley said afterward. " The only thing I noticed when he got about five steps from home plate, I heard the crowd cheering. I was like, oh, well."
Anybody seen this? Pretty cool...
http://tinyurl.com/pq6lr (Dodger Tribute Video)
As for C Bills, hit hard in 1 out of 4 starts(by a team whose offense was on fire), I'd say he's money( of course that's in lame mans terms).
"So, with that level of comfort, the Nationals came to bat in the sixth. Marlon Anderson -- who played center field for the first time in his major league career this weekend, and looked good doing it -- led off with a single up the middle against Tampa Bay reliever Jon Switzer. After an out, Ortiz laid down a bunt.
Switzer scooped it up and threw to shortstop Tomas Perez, who was covering second. The throw was late, and Anderson was safe. But Perez, in an effort to get Ortiz, threw to first anyway. Problem: First baseman Greg Norton wasn't near the bag, and when the ball approached, "He had to get out of the way at that point," Maddon said. It's as if the announced crowd of 23,823 yelled, 'Duck!' And Norton did.
The error put runners on second and third, and after Jose Vidro popped out to shallow right, the Devil Rays were set to get out of the inning. Except, with Royce Clayton up, Switzer uncorked a wild pitch that catcher Dioner Navarro couldn't block. Anderson scored easily, and here came Ortiz from second.
'You know what?' Ortiz said. 'I play the game hard.'
Navarro -- perhaps aware of that, or perhaps preparing for a career as a long snapper in the NFL -- flipped the ball both blindly and aimlessly, and Ortiz scored easily.
"I'm sure that's the first time that's ever occurred in the history of baseball, with the pitcher standing on second base," Maddon said. "It was a bad moment for us.'"
http://tinyurl.com/mwzna
As far as Billingsley goes, the steal of home didn't bother me much. I have every confidence that Martin will make sure it never happens again. I am concerned about the walks (17 in 22IP). I mean, I think Jeff Francoeur would probably try to work him for a walk at this point. If they decide to send him down to work on that, I won't have a beef. I doubt they will, though, given how badly we need starting pitching.
You think you are just cleaning up a mess, but you're just setting yourself up for more problems.
Comedy killer...
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Yes ... you are right ... my bad! :-(
E6 on me ...
Geez, another shortshop? It's a plague...
I'm still firmly in the "Better Sele than Odalis" camp, for what that's worth.
Number of PA Ahead in the count
Billingsley 28 of 101 PA (27.7%)
Lowe 147 of 467 PA (31.5%)
Penny 138 of 422 PA (32.7%)
Sele 48 of 224 PA (21.4%)
Francisco Liriano 135 of 315 (42.9%)
Number of PA Behind in Count
Billingsley 47 of 101 (46.5%)
Lowe 161 of 467 (34.5%)
Penny 138 of 422 (32.7%)
Sele 91 of 224(40.6%)
Lirano 80 of 315 (25.4%)
Opponent OPS when Behind in the count
Liriano__.921
Sele____.951
Penny__.792
Lowe___.708
Billingsley.932
Liriano, Sele, and Billingsley are just as vulnerable when they're behind in the count. The difference is that Liriano gets ahead in the count more, which is what Billingsley needs to be able to do. Billingsley clearly has been following Sele too much as a role model.
Apparently a Cubs blog has a rumor that the Cubbies and Yanks are talking about a deal which would include, among others, A-Rod and Aramis Ramirez. The blog admits it's just a rumor, but I was wondering what we might have of interest to the Yanks that they might consider for A-Rod.
Would we even want him? Apparently the remainder of his contract works out to about 16 mil per year thru 2010. With all of our young guys, paying that much for A-Rod might be quite affordable. Question is, what would we need to give up to get him? How about starting with Kent, Guzman, Izzy and building from there.
Comments?
With such a history and the SF penchant for trading young talent for veterans shouldn't Colletti be put on a short leash as far as trading young talent is concerned? Fortunately there is a little bit of press criticism - keep the pressure on him.
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And with the current shape of the Dodger farm system - isn't that a reflection on the talent of the previously maligned Dan Evans ??? To what extent can DePodesta be credited?
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Also I hope that those that like to advertise their love of Fox news will go do their advertising elsewhere: leave those ugly divisive issues for political sites and let's celebrate the uniting qualities of baseball here
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