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1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
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The Dodger Thoughts 2006 Postseason Guide
2006-10-02 13:00
by Jon Weisman
Note: The Dodger Thoughts blog has moved to the Los Angeles Times.

Despite ending the season with a seven-game winning streak and a 41-19 run, I don't imagine the Dodgers are highly regarded as an NL playoff contender. And maybe that's appropriate. But they should qualify at least as a sleeper, thanks to an offense that's consistent across almost all positions (only at third base do the Dodgers have below-average hitting) and a pitching staff, rebuilt throughout the season, that is stingy with home runs.

Here's a review of all 50 men who played for the 2006 Dodgers, with those likely to play in the postseason marked by an asterisk. There are no defensive statistics listed, primarly because I don't feel there's a reliable in-season measurement.

Legend
PA: plate appearances
EQA: According to Baseball Prospectus, EQA is "a measure of total offensive value per out, with corrections for league offensive level, home park, and team pitching. EQA considers batting as well as baserunning, but not the value of a position player's defense." The average is .260.
OPS: on-base percentage plus slugging percentage
RC: According to the Hardball Times, "Invented by Bill James, RC is a very good measure of the number of runs a batter truly contributed to his team's offense. The basic formula for RC is OBP*TB, but it has evolved into over 14 different versions. We use the most complicated version, which includes the impact of hitting well with runners in scoring position, and is adjusted for ballpark impact."
IP: innings pitched
H/9: hits allowed per nine innings, translated by Baseball Prospectus to accommodate park factors
BB/9: walks allowed per nine innings, translated by Baseball Prospectus to accommodate park factors
SO/9: strikeouts per nine innings, translated by Baseball Prospectus to accommodate park factors
HR/9: home runs allowed per nine innings, translated by Baseball Prospectus to accommodate park factors
FIP: According to the Hardball Times, "a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible. The formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP)*3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2) to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number. FIP helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded."
ERA: earned run average
ERA+: According to the Hardball Times, "ERA measured against the league average, and adjusted for ballpark factors. An ERA+ over 100 is better than average, less than 100 is below average."
PRC: According to the Hardball Times, "The notion behind Pitching Runs Created is that a run saved is worth more than a run scored, and PRC puts runs saved on the same scale as runs scored. You can directly compare PRC to a batter's Runs Created to gauge each player's relative value to his team."
Statistics courtesy of Hardball Times, Baseball Prospectus and ESPN.com.

CatcherPAOPSEQAVORPRC
Russell Martin*468.792.27519.864
Dioner Navarro86.759.2733.39
Sandy Alomar, Jr.62.726.2491.810
Toby Hall*60.822.2884.68
Einar Diaz31.333.4971.11

Remarkably, Martin started every game down the stretch for the Dodgers, and although his OPS in September was a slightly diminished .748, he held things together admirably. The postseason schedule should feel like a vacation to him. Navarro went to Tampa Bay at midseason and Hall came in exchange: The Dodgers didn't enjoy the sight of either behind the plate, but the contributions of both were probably underestimated. (Note the EQAs.) Alomar batted .323 with no walks or home runs before going to Chicago. Diaz was insurance for an injury that has yet to come.


First BasePAOPSEQAVORPRC
Nomar Garciaparra*523.872.29729.197
Olmedo Saenz*204.927.30716.536
James Loney*111.901.2986.819

Garciaparra slipped noticeably in the second half, OPSing .694, but teams will still fear him at the plate thanks to his two dramatic September walkoff home runs. Loney, on the other hand, seems to give the impression of an easy mark, but stroked the ball well after leading the minor leagues in batting average. Saenz is a nice piece of goods off the bench, particularly against lefthanded pitchers.


Second BasePAOPSEQAVORPRC
Jeff Kent*473.861.29634.280
Ramon Martinez*194.702.2472.925
Oscar Robles39.475.171-3.11

Kent recovered from a horrific April to post decent numbers. He didn't hit many home runs, but his on-base percentage was .385 and slugging was .477. He finished fourth among NL second basemen in VORP, first among those in the NL playoffs. Aches and pains, unfortunately, have made him look practically immobile on defense. Martinez started at fast before reverting to his journeyman self, but at least he's not an automatic out. After becoming a starter for the second half of 2005, Robles lost his roster spot to Martinez, and never hit well enough to reclaim it.


ShortstopPAOPSEQAVORPRC
Rafael Furcal*736.814.28449.1123

Like Kent, Furcal started horribly, but truly got better as the season went on, and ended up being the Dodgers' most valuable position player.


Third BasePAOPSEQAVORPRC
Wilson Betemit*192.743.2560.919
Cesar Izturis129.655.224-3.911
Bill Mueller126.759.2681.818
Willy Aybar151.770.2713.821
Julio Lugo*164.545.199-9.910
Joel Guzman23.558.214-1.22

The Dodgers still haven't solved their problems here. Betemit pops the occasional home run, but doesn't do much else - his on-base percentage has been particularly unimpressive as a Dodger (.306, though his career mark is .332). Lugo, his platoon partner, has been excruciating to watch, slugging .270 as a Dodger. Dodger manager Grady Little like Lugo's defense and has relentless faith that Lugo's offense will bounce back to the level of his Tampa Bay days (12 home runs, .302 EQA in 2006). Outside of how he handles the pitching staff, the use of Lugo and his ensuing output in the postseason could play a large role in how Little's own performance is evaulated.

But it's been rough all year at third base for the Dodgers. Mueller had a nice couple of opening weeks, then his knee gave out on him and his career. Aybar had a fast start as Mueller's replacement, then slumped and was never given another steady shot before going to Atlanta in the Betemit trade. Though Betemit sparked the Dodgers during the 17-1 run following his arrival, Aybar mostly outplayed him since. Izturis returned from Tommy John surgery and had a good few games, then proved utterly feeble at the plate. The Dodgers' traded him to the Cubs for Maddux, something no one figures to ever regret. Of course, Guzman is the former top prospect who fell out of favor, then got shipped to Tampa Bay for Lugo at the same moment. Guzman didn't hit in the Devil Ray minors, but if he does anything at all in his career, that will have been a steal in the opposite direction – barring a Lugo postseason awakening.

Third base is the only position in the Dodger lineup (besides pitcher) at which the team didn't regularly play someone with an EQA of .275 or higher.


Left FieldPAOPSEQAVORPRC
Andre Ethier*441.842.28720.569
Jose Cruz, Jr.273.734.2662.630
Marlon Anderson*731.244.36813.815
Ricky Ledee55.669.232-0.25

As the season headed into the final month, Ethier was a potential Rookie of the Year. But his batting average was driven by a high percentage of his balls hit in play going for hits (.400 or more at times) and could not be sustained. He had one extra-base hit in September and batted .143, though he walked enough to jack his on-base percentage to .311. Ethier might have a second wind in him, but we won't necessarily find out, because, Anderson, 32-year-old career .710-OPS man, went absolutely haywire at the plate after being acquired on the eve of September. There's no doubt that Anderson seems more locked in right now, though this remains a potentially vulnerable spot in the lineup. Cruz could draw a walk now and then but not much else, and Ledee was never right after surgery.


Center FieldPAOPSEQAVORPRC
Kenny Lofton*522.763.27627.676
Matt Kemp166.737.2583.522
Jason Repko*150.722.2602.623

Lofton is a heart attack defensively now, but his .360 on-base percentage, 12 triples and 32-for-37 basestealing did end up coming in handy. No home run threat, Lofton still drew the walk that preceded Garciaparra's 10th-inning home run to complete the Monday Night Miracle against the Padres. For a while, it looked like Kemp had earned a starting job by hitting seven home runs in about two weeks or so, but the league adjusted and Kemp hasn't yet adjusted back. Maybe next year. Repko OPSed .988 in April, then drove his ankle into the outfield wall and never recovered his season.


Right FieldPAOPSEQAVORPRC
J.D. Drew*594.891.30436.8103
Cody Ross141.643.4736.16
Delwyn Young5.000-.219-1.40

Ever-ridiculed for a contract that really isn't that outlandish, Drew OPSed 1.145 in September and finished at .891, playing a career high 146 games. Maybe he doesn't earn all the money, but he earns enough of it. Cody Ross will no doubt remain the only player to be traded immediately after a seven-RBI game, the result of a roster crunch. Delwyn Young's first taste of the majors is memorable mostly for his pinch-running exploits – barreling through players to try to keep rallies alive (and it worked Friday night to help the Dodgers edge closer to the playoffs).


Starting PitchingIPH/9BB/9SO/9HR/9FIPERAERA+PRC
Derek Lowe*2189.11.74.80.53.613.6311595
Brad Penny*1899.12.06.60.73.784.339780
Greg Maddux*73 2/38.01.04.10.63.594.2012732
Hong Chih-Kuo*59 2/37.34.510.10.42.844.229927
Jae Seo678.22.86.21.35.485.787220

A big reason for the success of the Dodger pitching is that while it gives up plenty of hits and doesn't boast many strikeout pitchers, the team doesn't allow many home runs. It led the NL in fewest home runs allowed – and remember, though it is challenging offensively in other areas, Dodger Stadium does not suppress the long ball.

In July, Lowe allowed 25 earned runs in 31 2/3 innings. In August and September, he allowed 20 earned runs in 75 1/3 innings. He abandoned a pitching style that had stopped working for him, and except for a meltdown in Chicago in which he surrendered most of a seven-run lead, he was untouchable for the final two months. The main concern for his Game 1 start in the playoffs is whether his six-day layoff will leave him too rusty. It was revealed that Penny, who slumped in the second half, is suffering from disc problems, and he may have to pitch out of the bullpen in the playoffs. Maddux has been occasionally hittable but mostly a godsend for the Dodger rotation. He does tire well before 100 pitches, but he can still give you six or more innings on his rations. Kuo has the potential to be a K-Rod for Los Angeles – a late-season bloomer who shines in October. There's no doubt that he is a transformed pitcher since his callup from the minors (it might have been an exile if he hadn't been moved to the starting rotation in Las Vegas and found a groove). He is throwing strikes like no other Dodger starter. He handcuffed the Mets in his first career regular-season start - will the second time around do him in? Seo was acquired for Duaner Sanchez, then replaced after a disappointing run by Mark Hendrickson.


Relief PitchingIPH/9BB/9SO/9HR/9FIPERAERA+PRC
Eric Gagne20.03.911.60.03.100.00------
Takashi Saito*78 1/35.22.011.70.31.712.0720367
Jonathan Broxton*76 1/36.23.410.80.62.852.5916251
Joe Beimel*708.92.13.60.84.322.9614233
Chad Billingsley*908.55.4 5.50.64.743.8011038
Danys Baez49 2/39.41.44.90.53.634.359616
Aaron Sele103 1/39.92.04.60.84.264.539236
Mark Hendrickson*7510.52.95.40.74.244.688925
Giovanni Carrara27 2/37.41.77.71.14.514.559211
Elmer Dessens237.33.06.01.04.894.70899
Brett Tomko*112 1/38.71.75.71.04.554.738938
Yhency Brazoban59.03.06.00.02.705.40771
Eric Stults17 2/37.33.02.11.36.675.60754
Tim Hamulack347.45.48.61.45.816.35668
Odalis Perez59 1/312.31.44.61.04.676.836113
Franquelis Osoria17 2/311.64.36.01.36.107.13594
Lance Carter11 2/311.95.93.30.75.428.49492

O Gagne, my Gagne. It wasn't meant to be. But amazingly, 36-year-old rookie Saito, a signee following an undistinguished 2005 in Japan, was recalled from the minors and showed precision form, first as a setup man, then as a closer. He strikes out almost twice as many as he allows to reach base. He hits spots, throws a devastating slider that hitters can't track, and has been unfazed by any pressure. He is expressionless on the mound until the final out, at which time a fist pump reveals the excited child within. Broxton has been almost as much of a horse, a durable setup man who has been consistent all year. Beimel was another huge surprise. He's mainly there to get lefties out, but fills the setup role when Broxton needs rest. If the Dodger starter goes six innings and leaves with the lead, these three can probably bring the team home – though it should be noted that Beimel's mediocre peripheral statistics don't justify his appealing ERA.

Billingsley has gotten the worst of his wildness behind him, but his performance in Colorado last week showed some vulnerability remains. Basically, he's talented and has great potential for the future, but to date, he's inconsistent. Baez was far too inconsistent to hold a valuable relief role – the contrast between him and Saito/Broxton is strong. Sele buoyed the Dodger rotation when they really need him to in May, then expired as the contents on his warning label indicated. Hendrickson, whom the Dodgers hoped would continue to defy reality, couldn't hold the spot in the rotation that they created for him, but he has done better in the bullpen. But note the fate of Tomko, who moved from the rotation to the bullpen and seemed to blossom, then remembered he was Tomko - he can get outs but you can't count on it.

Carrara and Dessens had their moments but showed why they were so easy to acquire. Brazoban, who underwent surgery in April, could be an important piece of the 2007 bullpen. Stults had a key victory against the Mets, but is probably just too hittable at this point. Hamulack continues to get strikeouts, but has otherwise been unreliable. Perez just couldn't get his act together at all this year. Osoria was a disappointment after a promising 2005 debut. Carter will try to forget 2006 altogether.

Forecast
A competitive, unpredictable series with the Mets.

Yep, that's all I got.

Comments (141)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2006-10-02 13:26:21
1.   Benaiah
The Dodgers actually have a better OPS than the Mets for the year. However, they have a lower OPS for the second half. Given Nomar's struggles the Dodgers might be better served to use someone else at 1B and save him for Gibson like pinch hitting moments. Meanwhile, Betemit should be replaced by Anderson or Saenz, because he is a blackhole at the moment.
2006-10-02 13:28:00
2.   capdodger
*Forecast
A competitive, unpredictable series with the Mets.

Yep, that's all I got.*

That's a bit like the AccuWeather-man saying, "Aww, shucks. Go stick your head out the window."

2006-10-02 13:32:16
3.   Marty
But Betemit would probably be replaced by Lugo. That's a neutron star replacing a black hole.
2006-10-02 13:33:25
4.   blue22
I think you'll see Lugo/Saenz at 3B/1B against Glavine, and then Betemit/Loney for the rest. Nomar is the secret weapon off the bench.

Who starts in left this series?

2006-10-02 13:33:29
5.   Jon Weisman
2 - At least I'm not predicting rain on a sunny day. Or on your wedding day, for that matter.
2006-10-02 13:34:54
6.   Josh G
Great analysis, Jon.

Just wondering... can't Anderson play 3rd with Ethier in left?

2006-10-02 13:37:41
7.   Monterey Chris
Jon,

As always, this is excellent. I'm guessing that you will do better on your overall prediction for this series than you did on your pre-season predictions.

2006-10-02 13:41:26
8.   capdodger
5 - I had two inches of snow and a thin overcast. Not ironic at all, and a nice look.
2006-10-02 13:42:08
9.   das411
Jon forgot to analyze the single most important factor in whether a team will win a postseason series: How many ex-Cubs do they have??
2006-10-02 13:42:53
10.   Jon Weisman
6 - I don't think Anderson plays third. Anyway, I don't sense a lot of desire from the Dodgers to start Ethier right now.
2006-10-02 13:43:58
11.   capdodger
I'm just annoyed that the games are all day games. Are the Yankees really that important that that they get the good timeslots? They're playing the Tigers for $deity's sake.

I guess I'll just have to use up some sick leave.

2006-10-02 13:46:55
12.   Bluebleeder87
4

i say Anderson. our starting pitching is better then the Mets IMO, all i know is that i'm glad we're in the postseason & that it will be fun.

ps I'm quietly confident by the way.

2006-10-02 13:48:40
13.   Bluebleeder87
11

good thing i work really really early, i won't miss one pitch.

2006-10-02 13:53:51
14.   max power
I will fight to the death anyone who says they dislike Mark Hendrickson more than I do.

That said, I'm not sure he shouldn't be on the playoff roster. He hasn't looked much worse than Penny does now, and I'm not ready to trust Stults.

2006-10-02 13:57:53
15.   Robert Fiore
On the other side, Paul LoDuca had the first good September in his career -- and his team didn't need it.
2006-10-02 13:58:10
16.   Benaiah
10 - Anderson played 2nd for most of his career, so unless his arm is truly terrible you think he would be a passable 3B. Ethier has been bad, but he still has a higher OBP during his slump than Betemit has for the year. Give Andre some ABs and see what happens. That said, this won't happen.
2006-10-02 13:59:05
17.   blue22
Hendrickson's tiebreaker with Sele and Dessens is the hand he throws with. He just might be a little bit useful in this series.
2006-10-02 14:01:10
18.   micktissue
Thanks for the great analysis Jon, it's a good primer for my office pool prognostications. And now for something completely different ...

As I was spooning out mac 'n cheese to my toddler I thought of Charlie Steiner and Rick Monday and then suddenly missed Ross Porter! Steiner lacks style, or worse, like John Miller, opts for hyperbole as style when understatement would do oh so nicely. Monday seems more interested in his voice inflections than helping poor Charlie keep the game call from unraveling in front of him.

I miss Porter's laid back, work-a-day manner that allowed me to be intrigued by the game and not notice its spokespersons.

Wherever you are Mr Porter, here's one fan who wishes he could have heard your calls this year instead of the style-less dolts who took over your chair.

DODGERS WIN!!!!!!!!!

2006-10-02 14:02:36
19.   Uncle Miltie
Great write up Jon. I'm not sure why everyone in the mainstream media is calling Nomar the Dodgers MVP. I'd give it to Furcal. Not only has he been extremely productive on the offensive end, but he's also been the Dodgers most durable player.

Anyone see this?
The Red Sox announced that the contracts of hitting coach Ron Jackson and pitching coach Dave Wallace will not be renewed.
Both had been with the team since 2003. Jackson was a favorite of the players, but the rumor is that he was always lacking on the technical side of things. Wallace is likely to be replaced by Al Nipper, who filled in for the first four months of the season after the former required a hip replacement.
-From rotoworld

It would be hard to get rid of Eddie Murray after the way the Dodger hitters produced this season, so I can't see them bringing back Ron Jackson, even though I think he's a superior hitting coach. I'd love to see the Dodgers bring back Wallace in some capacity. I can't see Rick Honeycutt getting the boot either despite doing a very mediocre job with the pitching staff. Grady Little doesn't seem to trust him. Why else would he be making the visits to the mound? He didn't do it nearly as often when he was with Boston.

Mariano Duncan deserves a contract extension…

2006-10-02 14:03:48
20.   capdodger
16 That might be a good long team goal, but I wouldn't bet on it in the short-run. It won't happen because if Grady started playing around with the lineup like that, the MSM would tear into him like they did post-Pedro. The logic, and reason behind it wouldn't matter, because it was fiddling with the team's "chemistry".
2006-10-02 14:03:56
21.   FirstMohican
14 - Before you fought me I would attempt to prove that I disliked Hendrickson more as I wouldn't put him on the postseason roster.
2006-10-02 14:05:26
22.   Benaiah
Rob Neyer picked us to win it all! No one else did though, and only 4 out of 17 picked us to go to the WS. All in all, according to the "experts" we have about a 1 in 4 chance of getting to the big game and a 1 and 17 chance of winning it, that is about what I think.
2006-10-02 14:08:44
23.   underdog
17 "Hendrickson's tiebreaker with Sele and Dessens is the hand he throws with. He just might be a little bit useful in this series. "

Yeah, that'll probably be the set-up, though I admit to feeling a little badly for Aaron Sele, given that he contributed more to holding the Dodgers together - granted, mostly earlier in the season - a lot more than Hendrickson did. I feel like he should be rewarded for his efforts, which were more than expected, over Hendrickson's, which were even worse than expected. But Hendy's a lefty, so there you go.

But I'd rather have Bills over either of them because he has better stuff, even if he's a rookie and erratic.

2006-10-02 14:09:31
24.   underdog
22 Seemed like 2 out of 4 of the baseball tonight guys picked us to go to the WS last night, but I may be mistaken. Was it just the jinxing host who did?
2006-10-02 14:11:08
25.   blue22
22 - only 4 out of 17 picked us to go to the WS

Neyer picked LA in the preseason, so he's sticking to his guns. I saw 4 of 5 ESPN guys picking NY to win this series, so apparently ESPN likes LA's chances of getting to the WS more than they like them to win the Mets series.

2006-10-02 14:23:34
26.   blue22
Only 1 of 17 (Enrique Rojas???) is picking StL to advance past SD. Go Cards!
2006-10-02 14:25:16
27.   kegtron
Great job at deadspin, Jon.

They do love the Dodgers over there.

Rule #1 didn't stand a chance.

2006-10-02 14:29:41
28.   still bevens
Hah there's some fine comments on deadspin. They hate us because we're beautiful.
2006-10-02 14:52:12
29.   Sushirabbit
Don't know if any of you have visited the BatGirl site recently but their last day was sort of like the back-to-back-to-back-to-back game. It's fun to go read all that and see how beside themselves they were. What a great comeback. I'm hoping it's Dodger's and Twin's in the WS and 1965 all over again.
2006-10-02 14:57:01
30.   bhsportsguy
Here's a breakdown of the biggest moments for each of the Dodgers so far in 2006. Let's start with the catchers.

1. Sandy Alomar, Jr.
June 11, 2006
The Dodgers were not a comeback team until recently but after Russell Martin hit a game tying double against Brian Fuentes in the top of the ninth, Sandy got a pinch single to drive in the winning run.

2. Toby Hall
August 6, 2006
In a day that may live in infamy as far as Florida Manager Joe Giradi's career, the Dodgers trailed 3-1 going into the top of seventh, Toby Hall's double drove in the final two runs in a six run rally that secured their ninth win in a row. Hall, often paired with Hendrickson in his starts, thus did not get many chances to play in winning situations, but he got the job done that day.

3. Dionner Navarro
April 28, 2006
Little did Dionner know that in a week his Dodger career would be over, he went 2 for 2 and drove in the first of only two runs the Dodgers would score in a 2-0 win over the Padres in San Diego.

4. Russell Martin
August 13, 2006
Certainly he had several key hits and moments and he will be forever linked as part of the magical night against the Padres but in the Sunday Night Game of the Week that featured tremendous performances by Jason Schmidt and Greg Maddux, he hit the first of four big walk-off home runs in Dodger Stadium.

Any suggestions are of course welcome, coming up, some guys who played first base for the Dodgers this year.

2006-10-02 15:01:33
31.   Xeifrank
I believe Shea stadium is more of a pitchers park than Dodger stadium is. Does anyone happen to know the breakdown on what type of hits it supresses and whether it supresses lefty or righty hitters more. Thanks.
vr, Xei
2006-10-02 15:14:06
32.   ToyCannon
Great writeup Jon.

Hopefully Lugo got all his lousy games out of his system during the regular season and will now show why he will be the top rated available free agent SS when the season ends.

"Guzman didn't hit in the Devil Ray minors, but if he does anything at all in his career, that will have been a steal in the opposite direction – barring a Lugo postseason awakening."

I don't agree with this in any way. We are going to get two number picks for this guy and either or both could end up having more of an impact then Joel Guzman who most prospect analysts will be dumping faster then portfolio's that contained on line gaming stocks.

2006-10-02 15:18:37
33.   Bluebleeder87
so is it official: Lowe, Kuo & Maddux?
2006-10-02 15:20:11
34.   Jon Weisman
32 - Okay, I'll amend to allow for that, but we know that no draft pick is a likely success in the bigs. Even a guy like Kershaw still has a long way to go.

And since it was the prospect analysts who hyped Guzman a year ago, I don't see why their dumping of him now should have any greater meaning.

2006-10-02 15:26:09
35.   ToyCannon
Below is just an opinion as the players head into October and is not based on any WARP, VORP, or EQA.
Delgado/Nomar - Mets
Valentin/Kent - Dodgers
Reyes/Furcal - wash, two best NL SS going head to head(sorry rollins)
Wright/Betemit,Lugo-Mets big
Green/Drew - Dodgers big
Beltran/Lofto- Mets big
Floyd/Anderson - shockingly a wash
LaDuca/Martin - wash
Bench - Dodgers big

Starting Pitching
Glavine/Lowe - Dodgers
El Duque/Kuo - Dodgers
Traschel/Maddux- Dodgers
Maine / Penny - wash

Relief Pitching
Wash

Starting pitching wins it for us in 4. This team can be overpowered but the Glavines of the world are not going to keep us from a Southern California NL championship matchup with the boys from the south.

2006-10-02 15:29:10
36.   ToyCannon
34
Because another year of data is important in the process. At his age in 2005 and his place in the defensive spectrum he should have been hyped. Moving all the way down the defensive spectrum from SS to a bad defensive 1st baseman, his attitude, and his poor offensive showing after hitting a few bumps in the road is every reason in the world to change the prognosis. The analysis work with the data and the scouts. Another year means more data. JMO
2006-10-02 15:31:49
37.   Midwest Blue
27-28 Yes, I also liked the Deadspin article, Jon. Here's the link so everyone else can enjoy:

http://www.deadspin.com/sports/baseball/where-my-team-stands-los-angeles-dodgers-204476.php

2006-10-02 15:35:09
38.   bhsportsguy
34 While I agree that the Lugo move on its own may have been one that ultimately they did not need to do based on how everything panned out but since Ned has said that he would not have traded Izzy for Maddux without having a player to replace Cesar, I will always see them as being companion pieces.
2006-10-02 15:36:12
39.   ToyCannon
Catfish Stew has a column pointing out how ex oakland players who were stiffs or did nothing for Oakland have become WS heroes. Two players mentioned who would be eligible this year for us are Saenz and Ethier. Hopefully the Dodgers can expect Saenz and Ethier to continue this tradition.
2006-10-02 15:36:32
40.   Jon Weisman
36 - The analysts were willfully blind a year ago. Given that his move away from shortstop was inevitable, given his poor plate discipline stats, they should have been cooler to him.

Now, the year has passed, and they're calling him worthless, questioning his desire as if the couple of petulant moments he had this season were the be-all and end-all. Everyone's so sure that 2006 represents his true level. Meanwhile, he's still only 21/22 years old. There's every possibility he can come back in 2007 and mash the ball at AAA, and move on from there.

To me, in both years, many people are guilty of not seeing the big picture with Guzman.

Guzman won't be the next A-Rod, and he might be the next Reggie Abercrombie, but my guess is that he ends up in the middle somewhere. I certainly think there's more than a little possibility he'll carve out a better career than the two Dodger draft picks TBD.

2006-10-02 15:37:09
41.   StolenMonkey86
if Penny can't start, I suppose this means Billingsley will make a postseason start?
2006-10-02 15:46:36
42.   Bluebleeder87
41

i'm still trying to figure out if Lowe, Kuo & Maddux are the starting 3. :o)

2006-10-02 15:51:32
43.   blue22
41 - Or Lowe could come back on 3 days rest. Could be ok, considering he's getting 7 days (?) rest leading up to Game 1.

It may depend on whether LA is up or down 2-1 in the series.

2006-10-02 15:54:04
44.   Greg S
I have voiced strong opinons about not having Billingsley start down the stretch and I'll voice them again but with the emphasis on a different reason...
I think that desperate may not be too stong a word to describe out middle relief situation. I think that we are sure to see a tight game handed to the bullpen before the 7th and although Beimel has been reliable, I think that another good pitcher in the bullpen is more important than extra rest for Lowe and Kuo right now. I don't see any reason we can't get through round 1 with 3 guys. It means Lowe on 3 days rest (fine) and Kuo on 3 days rest only if it goes 5 games. Otherwise, we're reset for round 2.
2006-10-02 15:55:55
45.   Chiron Brown
35 I wouldn't give Kuo an edge over Hernandez. I thought Kuo's last start was pretty bad. His control was great but everything was above the belt. The Mets aren't the Giants. If Kuo leaves everything up like that in New York they'll be picking baseballs up in Jersey for days.
2006-10-02 15:56:40
46.   StolenMonkey86
44 - true, and if pitching well with RISP is really due to his composure and not just luck, Billingsley may be quite valuable as a fireman
2006-10-02 15:58:12
47.   Bluebleeder87
i don't know about Kuo going on 3 days rest, Lowe & Maddux i'm cool with, but Kuo & his 2 TJ arm serguries dons't make me feel good.
2006-10-02 15:59:58
48.   NPB
FYI, I'm the token Dodger fan for The New Republic's postseason baseball blog:

http://www.tnr.com/blog/count

My prediction is similar to Jon's: One blowout win for each team, and three games of nail-biting insanity. It will serve in stark contrast to the Twins' defeat of the A's in four, the Yankees' demolition of the Tigers, and the Padres' sweep of the Cardinals. The Dodgers-Mets will be the marquee series of the first round.

2006-10-02 16:01:14
49.   underdog
Well, the Mets playoff roster has been set, and it doesn't include Milledge, Ledee or Rose Royce, I mean Royce Ring.

http://tinyurl.com/f2arp

No real surprises there.

2006-10-02 16:02:24
50.   Greg S
I believe Jon took the wise stance on preditcting the series. Anyone who thinks they can predict what the 2006 Dodgers will do knows nothing about the 2006 Dodgers.
Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2006-10-02 16:05:04
51.   ToyCannon
48
The Twins are going to beat the A's in four with a rotation after Santana of Bonser, Garza, Silva, or a broken armed labrum torn Radke?
2006-10-02 16:05:07
52.   underdog
I boldly predict the Dodgers will play 3-5 games vs. the Mets, play well in most of them, and then either win or lose it at the end. There will be some drama, a comeback or three, an unexpected hero, and much rejoicing. Somewhere.

You'll see!

2006-10-02 16:07:07
53.   be2ween
CBS Sportsline has Maddux v Glavine pitching Game 2 in NY. Telemachos has Maddux opening in the Ravine. Which is true?
2006-10-02 16:08:24
54.   bigcpa
37 What's up with the heathens that post over there?
2006-10-02 16:14:08
55.   Jon Weisman
53 - When in doubt, trust the local coverage over the national coverage.
2006-10-02 16:20:03
56.   blue22
If Maddux is indeed slotted to pitch Game 3 in LA, Little must be prepared to pitch Penny or Billingsley in Game 4 or 5. I wonder who has the edge?
2006-10-02 16:25:30
57.   Daniel Zappala
I still think that if Mueller hadn't gotten hurt we'd be pretty happy with our 3rd base situation right now. I'm pretty bummed about that.
2006-10-02 16:25:30
58.   Greg S
54 Apparently they would like to procreate with us.
2006-10-02 16:26:57
59.   underdog
56 I'm guessing {superstitious disclaimer: IF necessary!} it would be either Penny and/or Lowe going again. Very doubtful the Dodgers would start 2 rookies in this series.
2006-10-02 16:29:38
60.   Benaiah
53 - I think everyone assumed that Maddux would start, but the article in the LA Times today said that Little was going with Kuo. I am a little shocked at how bad most of the coverage is. I generally don't watch other teams except when they play the Dodgers, so I can understand why many people don't know what is going on with our team, but then I don't work in the media. I think many people would profit from a little research to actually see who is going on with teams other than the Mets and the Yankees, rather than just looking through the foggy wisps of his or her recollections of what BBTN said over the year.
2006-10-02 16:35:31
61.   blue22
59 - Lowe would pitch either Game 4 (on 3 days rest) or Game 5 on normal rest. Maddux would be unavailable for the other start unless he pitches Game 2 in Shea, which I think Little wants to avoid. Kuo wouldn't pitch on short rest after pitching Game 2.

So the non-Lowe game 4 or 5 would go to the injured Penny or the rookie Billingsley. And which game do you pitch Lowe in - 4 or 5???

Little's got some tough decisions to make.

2006-10-02 16:40:29
62.   Greg S
61 I don't think you can hold back Billingsley from the bullpen on the thought that he might pitch game 5. The more I think about it, the more I can't believe that Penny will not be available. He has no proveable injury and he's already appatently saying he's fine.
Whether we want him to be available is another question.
2006-10-02 16:41:00
63.   Benaiah
Everyone is downplaying the Mets pitching, but El Duque and Glavine have been very good the last month. They won't be pushovers and we will probably need to score some runs.
2006-10-02 16:44:11
64.   underdog
Okay, all that said, I'd now say Penny in Game 4 and Lowe in Game 5 {IF necessary}.
2006-10-02 16:44:14
65.   Greg S
we will probably need to score some runs.

Tim McCarver alert! ; )

2006-10-02 16:45:01
66.   Greg S
64 I believe we have a winner. I would guess that as well.
2006-10-02 16:45:13
67.   Marty
I have tickets to Sunday's game so the Dodgers better win at least one.
2006-10-02 16:45:51
68.   Bluebleeder87
Little's got some tough decisions to make.

Grady had some tough desicions to make with the Red Sox i'm sure he's learned from his mistakes, in any case let's just injoy the ride & root for our Dodgers.

2006-10-02 16:46:18
69.   blue22
67 - I bought tickets to Game 3, assuming an LA sweep. :)
2006-10-02 16:48:24
70.   DXMachina
45 If Kuo leaves everything up like that in New York they'll be picking baseballs up in Jersey for days.

Actually, that'd be a good thing. Jersey's in foul territory. :)

2006-10-02 16:48:45
71.   Improbable88
I think Lowe and Kuo could both pitch every 4th day at this point in the season. Lowe has never needed 4 days off and Kuo's arm hasn't been pushed this year in terms of innings.

Penny should not start. He has no confidence and no strikeout pitch.

2006-10-02 16:48:50
72.   Marty
I think this satisfies the irony definition:

http://tinyurl.com/n5ear

2006-10-02 16:49:06
73.   bearlurker
35 I don't think the bullpens are a wash; I think the Mets have the advantage in that it's deeper, with Mota and Bradford better than Tomko and co.
2006-10-02 16:52:22
74.   Gagne55
62 The results speek for themselves. Have you seen Penny pitch lately?
2006-10-02 16:54:12
75.   Greg S
74 Hence the last sentence of my post!
2006-10-02 16:58:25
76.   blue22
73 - Wagner, Mota, Heilman, Roberto Hernandez, Chad Bradford?

Saito, Broxton, Beimel, Billingsley, Tomko?

Pretty close...

2006-10-02 16:59:17
77.   Jon Weisman
72 - Yes, accepted.
2006-10-02 17:04:34
78.   ssjames
63

You need to look at who El Dookie and Glavine pitched against before saying they pitched well.

Here are El Dookie last 5 starts:

Atlanta - W
Washington - L
Pittsburgh - L
Dodgers - W
Houston - L

Other than the Dodgers there is not a single good offensive team in that bunch. Saying he has pitched well, when only one game really stands out as even good is misleading, plus he still has a losing records, despite a nice 2.01 ERA. I am not overly impressed.

Glavine over his last 6 has faced en even lesser set of offensive opponents, and despite a number of wins, has performed rather ordinary relative to competition imo.

His opponents were:

Was - W
Was - L
Fla - W
Fla - ND
LAD - W
Hou - ND

During which time he posted a 2.89.

So these two can beat up on the little sisters of the poor and admittedly had wins over the blue during the time period as well. But neither has looked like a world beater when you factor in that they were playing some of the worst teams MLB has to offer.

2006-10-02 17:07:11
79.   Jon Weisman
78 - It's a little hard to look past the "LAD-W." I think it's safe to endorse the comment in [63} that they won't be pushovers.
2006-10-02 17:09:28
80.   ssjames
76 I think that if anything looking at those pitchers and potentially Penny as well, the Dodgers have a slight bullpen advantage. The main hinderance in this series is homefield advantage, who knows how/if that will affect our young kids in NY.
2006-10-02 17:13:20
81.   Jon Weisman
The Dodgers have two reliable relievers in Saito and Broxton, maybe a third in Beimel. Neither Billingsley, Tomko nor Penny could be considered a reliable reliever at this point. That doesn't mean they can't do well, but I wouldn't count on it.
2006-10-02 17:14:40
82.   Humma Kavula
72 While reading that article, I got to this bit:

NCISD banned "Draw Me a Star" by Eric Carle and "Absolute Power" by David Baldacci, but it has not received a book challenge in three years, Cindee Reynolds, NCISD superintendent/community relations executive assistant, stated in an e-mail to The Courier.

"Eric Carle?" said I. "The Very Hungry Caterpillar, Eric Carle?"

The one and the same. The book in question (the following text from amazon):

During his youth, this gifted authorartist explains in his newest book's afterword, his German grandmother would often draw him a star while chanting a nonsense rhyme. Taking that symbol as his foundation, Carle here creates a world pulsating with life and color-a world that bursts forth from a good star sketched by a young artist. This kaleidoseopic pentagram requests a sun from the artist's pen; the sun asks for a tree, and so on until a man and woman are living happily among Carle's characteristic collages-flora and fauna of all shapes, sizes and vivid hues. Meanwhile the artist, now a bearded old man, continues to draw and create. This unusual, practically plotless work seems to embody a personal scenario close to the artist's heart. His unadorned language, pulsing with a hypnotic rhythm, adroitly complements the familiar naive artwork. Though some may be disturbed by similarities between Carle's evolving world and the biblical creation story (the unclothed male and female figures, for example), this tale of imagination and creativity pays homage to the artist within all of us-and may well fire youngsters' imaginations.

2006-10-02 17:15:24
83.   Linkmeister
72 I saw that elsewhere today, too. Idiocy might even be better than irony. Did you notice the guy said he hadn't read the book?

Ah, Texas, where the brains turn to mush in the summer heat.

2006-10-02 17:17:52
84.   bhsportsguy
Looking at both clubs, the key will be is who gets to the starters first. Arguably Derek Lowe has been the best starter over the last two months for both teams and certainly Kuo and Maddux have generally pitched well (I agree with the decision to pitch Maddux at home, he has pitched well in Dodger Stadium this year), but they must get into the 7th inning with the lead, then Grady can mix and match is pen to get to Broxton and Saito.

The Mets probably need only 5-6 innings of good starting pitching to get to their pen so the Dodgers will have to try and get a faster start than usual.

2006-10-02 17:21:59
85.   capdodger
How about Lowe, Kuo and pray for snow?
2006-10-02 17:22:29
86.   Chiron Brown
70 So they'll be picking up baseballs in Great Neck. Actually, I think that no matter which way you are facing, Jersey is always considered foul territory.*

*I apologize for this slight against the great state of New Jersey which, outside of the rather nasty urban/industrial areas, is quite lovely. It lives up to it's nickname as New Jersey has a higher percentage of land set aside as state parks than any state other than Alaska.

2006-10-02 17:27:34
87.   Xeifrank
any guesses to what batting order/lineup the Mets will throw at the Dodgers vs Lowe (a RHP) and Guo (a LHP)? vr, Xei
2006-10-02 17:28:04
88.   capdodger
86 Somehow, I don't think that "Heah, Lookout! Weah campin' heah," would work as a state tourism promotion slogan.
2006-10-02 17:44:55
89.   Marty
Jon, you got some serious props from Tom Meagher today:

(Will) Leitch is the best internet sports scribe not named Jon Weisman

2006-10-02 17:49:25
90.   Jon Weisman
An excerpt from the New York Times today:

Glavine said the Dodgers would "pose a tough challenge" because they have a balanced lineup featuring patient hitters. Rafael Furcal is the catalyst while Jeff Kent, J. D. Drew and Nomar Garciaparra are seasoned hitters for a team that led the league in batting average and on-base percentage. The Dodgers depend on speed, not power, as they were second in the N.L. in steals and second to last in homers.

Since the Dodgers did not clinch a postseason spot until Saturday, Cliff Floyd said the Mets, who had at least a 10-game lead since June, had to be sure to "match their enthusiasm and intensity." Floyd warned that "a team that barely gets in can win the whole thing."

2006-10-02 17:53:02
91.   Jon Weisman
89 - Coming from him, that does mean a lot to me.
2006-10-02 17:53:21
92.   Bluebleeder87
89

i hope the typewriter on his website is a collectors item & not the one he uses.

2006-10-02 17:58:23
93.   Strike4
90
Too bad the lips on this Mets team aren't as loose as in '88.
2006-10-02 18:05:37
94.   still bevens
90 Second in steals? Wow. Werent we something like second to last in steals last year?
2006-10-02 18:11:49
95.   Bluebleeder87
so any updates on Gagne throwing out the ceremonial 1st pitch in Dodger Stadium yet?
2006-10-02 18:29:37
96.   50 years a Dodger Fan
I have a question; there probably is no real answer for it but I'm sure some of you will have theories that I'll be interested in reading: Over watching probably hundreds of Dodger games on TV over the years, a preponderance of the time the batter seems to consistently take the first pitch, although frequently to me it looks very hittable and is the best pitch he gets (in my opinion). Then he ends up striking out on a pitch that is virtually in the dirt. If he connected at all it would be a weak grounder. Why do they do that? My opinion is that all hitters are guess hitters and they swing or take based just on what they think might be thrown to them. I'm sorry, but it does look that way.
2006-10-02 18:33:52
97.   50 years a Dodger Fan
Obviously Nomar does not attend the school that teaches taking pitches, he is a prolific first ball swinger. To bad some of his teammates don't take lessons from him... Anyhow, here's my take on why he is a first ball swinger: If you had to go through that long superstitous ritual that he does on every pitch, wouldn't you swing at the first one too?
2006-10-02 18:36:02
98.   DXMachina
90 Interesting that Glavine mentioned the speed and steals, because over at Fox Sports, Dayn Perry sizes up the Mets-Dodgers series, and asserts, "Paul Lo Duca hasn't been especially adept at gunning down runners, but the Dodgers rank near the bottom of the league in steals."

Nice bit of research there.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6023074

2006-10-02 18:37:38
99.   Greg S
96 Eddie Murray agrees with you. This is one reason why many Dodgers have been swinging at first pitches throughout the year. I agree as well.
Think of it from the pitchers side. What are they always told is the most important pitch? Strike one. Get ahead in the count. So the early pitches tend to be more hittable strikes. Why wait 'til they get ahead and then lunge at breaking balls away as you try to protect the plate with two strikes?
Of course, there are exceptions like when a pitcher has shown himself to be wild, you're trying to get a look at what he has or there's a rabbit at first base.
2006-10-02 18:38:24
100.   be2ween
83 That's why we Texans have the following:

http://www.goldenpicklejuice.com/

Better than gatorade, I'm sure.

J D DREW!?

PIC-KLE JUICE!!!

Show/Hide Comments 101-150
2006-10-02 18:53:03
101.   Greg Brock
Wow, fantastic read, Jon. And a great job on the Deadspin Dodgers preview.
2006-10-02 18:55:59
102.   twerp
14 17 23 I don't claim Hendrickson should be a lock for the roster, but he's done fairly well out of the pen lately. Lefties are valuable, especially vs. the Mets.

For Sept. Hendrickson's ERA was 3.29 over 13.2 IP, 11H, 4BB, 15K. His 4IP/8K game--albeit in a blowout--shows he's capable, at least at times.

Got to do it with some sort of consistency, tho, and when it matters. The HOF probably is safe, but Hendy may have upside.

FWIW, he finished the year with a Dodger ERA of 4.64, comparable to Tomko's 4.73. His D Ray ERA this year was 3.81.

And you never know when he might crash and burn on the mound, causing the Mets to go into hysterics and lose all focus on baseball. The Dodgers would be immune to this, having seen it before. A secret weapon, he is..??

Worth another look:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ev3m2O4XmFM

2006-10-02 18:56:11
103.   Bluebleeder87
100

how does it taste though?, i'll go with Vitamin water or Gatorade.

2006-10-02 18:58:16
104.   be2ween
I haven't tasted it but the star tight end (no pun intended) of the Cowboys. Prob make you pucker.
2006-10-02 19:08:29
105.   Bluebleeder87
oh man! LOL, i'll just keep my thoughts to my self. :o)
2006-10-02 19:14:04
106.   twerp
There may not be any way to measure this. But have there been any other pitchers with Maddux's overall complete fundamental game and consistency?

Gold gloves galore, excellent fielding and bunting technique, stealing bases on unconscious opposing pitchers at age 40. Not to mention 300+ wins, umpteen years of at least 15 wins, etc.

2006-10-02 19:17:31
107.   Bluebleeder87
so are we gonna rally up the DT'ers to have Gagne throw out the 1st pitch or no??
2006-10-02 19:35:11
108.   Bluebleeder87
so Lowe & Maddux are a lock to start games 1 & 3 but Kuo is "tentatively" starting game 2.
2006-10-02 19:58:50
109.   underdog
The Mets have their own tentative pitcher situation with Steve Trachsel.
2006-10-02 20:09:56
110.   Jon Weisman
I don't think I've seen a sanctioned October Madness bracket before.

http://www.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/fantasy/bracket_challenge/

2006-10-02 20:14:33
111.   Bob Timmermann
Such a contest is very likely to be tied.

But they have tiebreakers set up:

1. Total number of runs scored during the final game of the World Series;
2. Total number of hits recorded during the final game of the World Series;
3. Total number of runs scored during the entire World Series;
4. Total number of hits recorded during the entire World Series;
5. Correct selection of the winning MLB team and number of games in the World Series (only in cases where tied participants had less than seven correct predictions);
6. Correct selection of both the winning MLB teams and number of games in each of the ALCS and NLCS (only in cases where tied participants had less than seven correct predictions); and
7. MLBAM will administer a timed baseball trivia quiz, testing the tied participants' knowledge of Major League Baseball, until the tie is broken.

It's better than the WBC.

2006-10-02 20:23:42
112.   das411
Ahhh so nice to have wide receivers again!

Has anybody else set up their vcr/Tivo to record the Maddux/Glavine matchup yet?

2006-10-02 20:33:31
113.   Greg S
For those of you that have the Discovery Science chanel, they are running a show on sabermetrics right now.
2006-10-02 20:35:54
114.   dzzrtRatt
This Brian Sabean quote on Felipe Alou cracked me up:

"His [objection] was that it should've happened sooner and I understand that," he added. "He was ready for this. The feeling of the last two ball clubs don't fall in his lap. In every way he was a victim of the circumstances. He was very relieved that he was going home. He had a very good four years here except for the last two."

2006-10-02 20:36:49
115.   Bluebleeder87
113

i've seen it & the guy seemed very cocky at the end of the show, good stuff though don't get me wrong.

2006-10-02 20:41:58
116.   D4P
Regarding the Yankees:

"Think about this," said one AL executive a few days ago. "They're going to win close to 100 games, and they lost Matsui and [Gary] Sheffield for almost the whole year. If most teams lost 250 RBIs, they wouldn't even contend."

Wow, if the Yankees had had Matsui and Sheffield, they would have scored 250 more runs this year. I guess...

2006-10-02 20:48:04
117.   Greg Brock
116 It's amazing to see the Yankees hang in there despite all their adversity. I mean, how they just keep on going, despite the horrible string of luck. It boggles the mind. Just an inspiration to us all.

The preceding message brought to you by Greg Brock's House of Sarcasm.

2006-10-02 20:50:02
118.   das411
Oh no!! It sounds like Brett Favre has suffered an "upper body injury"!!
2006-10-02 20:51:03
119.   Bob Timmermann
I have never realized how much watching a baseball game every day affected me.

I never realized how little interest I could have in MNF.

There's nothing to watch on TV until 9:15 when it's DVR safe to start watching "Heroes".

Yeah, I'm one of those guys.

2006-10-02 21:10:17
120.   Vishal
[116] HAH! how come THAT guy has a job on a major league baseball team, and yet seemingly intelligent, reasonable, and capable thinkers like most of us have no shot?
2006-10-02 21:12:38
121.   Vishal
i mean, seriously. 250 RBIs! gone! poof! i guess the yankees must have only been allowed to put 7 men in their lineup after they lost those guys, and they had to give up an out every time matsui's and sheffield's spots came up in the order. how on earth did they ever manage?? thank goodness for mystique!
2006-10-02 21:29:57
122.   Greg Brock
121
I'm so disappointed in you, Vishal. You completely underestimate the power of Derek Jeter's dreamy eyes.

Those puppies are worth at least ten games right there.

2006-10-02 22:27:38
123.   Bob Timmermann
Another Dodger team record set this season and one that I wasn't expecting.

Hits allowed.

The Dodgers pitchers gave up 1524, 86 more than they gave up in 1999.

2006-10-02 22:31:30
124.   popup
18 I agree. I am probably as interested in the announcing lineups as I am the starting lineups. Will Vin be on the radio for this series?

Stan from Tacoma

2006-10-02 22:33:58
125.   Bob Timmermann
124
Vin should be doing the first three and last three innings of the playoff games. That's what he did in 2004.

Or you can listen to Gary Thorne, Joe Morgan, and Steve Phillips on ESPN.

Hmm.....

Well, it doesn't matter either way for me since the games will be on during work hours.

2006-10-02 23:22:14
126.   Vishal
[122] dude, if jeter's eyes are not a significant part of the yankee mystique, i guess i just don't know what mystique is anymore.
2006-10-02 23:28:12
127.   Greg Brock
126
I'm going to need a ruling if dreaminess factors in to overall mystique. It may be a separate entity, like clutchiness, chemistry, or locker room presence. I know the pinstripes factor in at some point, as do dead, fat outfielders named George Herman.

I'll get Joe Morgan on the Batphone immediately.

2006-10-02 23:51:18
128.   Improbable88
Which active Dodger rookies will be considered rookies nest year?

Loney? Kemp? Kuo?

What are maximum inning/abs for rookie status?

2006-10-03 00:00:19
129.   Bob Timmermann
130 ABs, 50 IPs, or 45 days on the roster before September 1.

Kemp would not be a rookie next year. Nor would Kuo. I think Loney was just on the roster for 36 days before September 1.

2006-10-03 00:01:44
130.   Improbable88
So, Kemp and Kuo aren't rookies, but looking through the stats, it looks like Loney will still be a rookie next year as he only chalked up 41 days of service before the 40 man expansion and only 102 at bats.

That leaves him 9 days and 28 at bats a rookie. Now, do playoff at bats and roster days count toward rookie status?

For James' sake, I hope not. He has to be an early contender for next year's ROY if he ends up getting the starting nod.

Thoughts? Answers?

2006-10-03 00:02:41
131.   Bob Timmermann
Playoff stats don't matter in eligibility for Rookie of the Year.
2006-10-03 00:28:52
132.   Improbable88
Great! Hopefully Nomar plays superbly and renders the point moot, but if James does get the call it can only help his poise for next year.

Thanks Bob!

2006-10-03 07:50:05
133.   capdodger
Just in case anyone was thinking of getting work done today, ItD has put up a PDF of the Playoff Media Guide.
2006-10-03 08:04:14
134.   DodgerBlueBruce
133What or where is ItD? Thanks
2006-10-03 08:11:16
135.   capdodger
133 ItD = Inside the Dodgers. There's a link on the sidebar.
2006-10-03 08:34:14
136.   StolenMonkey86
According to the media guide, the Dodgers are 11-3 when Lugo is the starting 2nd baseman, but only 7-6 with him at third.

As for the lineup, the Dodgers are 3-0 with Saenz batting third in the lineup. They are again, 11-3 when Lugo bats third.

2006-10-03 08:35:48
137.   StolenMonkey86
and also, Nomar hit both of his grand slams on the 24th of the month
2006-10-03 08:40:55
138.   Greg S
And Tom Wilson hit a home run for us in the 2004 playoffs? I really had to rack my brain to remember someone named Tom Wilson playing for the Dodgers. I guess it's familiar now. Sort of.
2006-10-03 08:41:38
139.   Jon Weisman
Game chats are open: A's-Twins at Catfish Stew, Padres-Cardinals in new post up top.
2006-10-03 08:45:21
140.   Johnson
138 Wilson was a backup catcher, right? Note that there are a least a few flubs in the Guide (on that very last page, at least) - I'm pretty sure Duke Snider never hit a home run with 5 men on base, no matter how great he was!
2006-10-03 08:50:58
141.   capdodger
My favorite is how Ricky Ledee is listed as an infielder.

Then again, they were throwing this thing together in a marathon session in the middle of the night. I'm not surprised there's a few typos and other errors.

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