5) what about conditional judgements? "if colletti actually makes that trade he needs his head examined"...

part of the fun of HSL is the blatant rumormongering.

On that old 2004 post, Jon, is there any way to see comments on a post where the comments have been closed?

Let's come up with a top 10 best reported Dodger trade rumors that didn't happen. Just brainstorming here...

Nomo/Hollandsworth for Unit
Edwin Jackson for Dunn
Edwin Jackson/A. Perez for Hudson
Odalis for Konerko
Penny/Navarro for Vazquez

If there is anything we can learn from Year 1 of the Ned's Regime is that most of his trades and free agent signings came without warning and whenever a name was attached to the Dodgers it proved to be false.

That said, I don't think that if you hear about any potential free agent pitcher or a hitter like Soriano or Lee, you should dismiss it but I do think that from what I have seen so far, if something is put out in the media, it will be close to happening like the Furcal signing.

4 Maybe I should read Jon entries first, see No. 6.

2 I think you need to go Jon's old All-Baseball site archives and can look at the comments over there.

http://www.all-baseball.com/dodgerthoughts/

Whom was Hollandsworth traded for?
I dont remember.

i was afraid to ask this question in the A's blog, but do the A's know/play small ball??

Hollandsorth, Kevin Gibbs, and Randey Dorame to the Rockies for Tom Godwin plus cash

Words to live by.

8 They don't seem to put players in motion to avoid double plays, that's for sure.

All those points are wise advice, but I doubt hardly anyone will actually follow all the principles around here. =) Really, part of rumour mongering is the fun of bandying about nonsense news in the off-season when we don't have real games to fill the time.

More seriously, I've always thought the best part of your analysis Jon is that you're judicious and balanced. Even when you take what could be considered to be a bold position, regarding, for example, bullpen usage, you always credit counter-arguments, and for that you really should be commended. One of the great frustrations I have with the likes of Plaschke is a seeming inability to acknowledge that there might be multiple approaches to the same problem.

All that being said, prudence and good sense are always in short supply, but that's all the more reason to praise those who have more than their fair share...

WWSH

I might get crucified for this, but I'd let Nomar walk, put Loney at first, and go after Soriano and Zito.

8 I dont think they steal many bases. They follow the Depo philosophy of steal if you must, but dont do it in a manner that will result in losing outs. Theres a really long breakdown of the way the A's and Tigers play on Baseball Prospectus today and you dont have to be a member to read it.

13- Pfff. That's nothing; I'd let Nomar and Maddux walk.

14 Well, I asked at Catfish Stew if they ever put runners in motion to avoid DPs, and Ken says no. Were I they, I might consider it.

13 - I'm with you for sure on Nomar. My guess is that his numbers next year will look a lot more like his numbers from the second half than the first. Plus, we really can't expect to get more than 125-130 games out of the guy. Loney next year will be better and cheaper than Nomar.

As for Soriano and Zito, I'm with you but it all depends on price tag and I fear that someone will end up overpaying for both. Neither are top, top shelf players but, in a thin year, they'll expect to be paid like they are.

13

Did you see Zito today? Soriano i'm cool with.

13 Sounds good to me.

15 Edgy.

3-How about this one? Joel Guzman and Sergio Pedroza for Julio Lugo.What a laugher that was!Like anyone would have made that trade.Oh wait.Never mind.

20- I got my new glasses in the mail today. Rimless, hingeless, edgy as all get out. So, I'm feeling inspired. Inspired enough to trade Derek Lowe!

8 - I don't think so. Four GIDPs?

If Lugo had gone on the DL* instead of reporting to the Dodgers his value would be triple what it is now. *Rumor by inference.

Following up on 1 above (as I enter into grading my one-hundredth essay in three days time...)

1) Rumors are not facts. But rumors or more fun and usually lead to some form of partying: drinking, eating, food fights, etc.

2) Teams and agents often float rumors to generate attention or to misdirect rivals. The media will report these rumors without much concern over how viable they are. The rumor is the news - whether it comes to fruition or not is not the media's problem (or so the media has decided). For that I say, "God bless the media!"

3) A report that agents, players or teams "were talking" is meaningless. People talk all the time. It doesn't mean anything will come of it. This is false. Everyone knows that when players or teams "were talking" it can mean nothing but interest of the highest order on both parties. I am often shocked that when two parties "were talking" a deal is not announced the following afternoon. Why is that?

4) Any rumor attributed to an anonymous source is particularly useless. But the rumor could be true...

5) Making judgments about a general manager based on a rumor reflects poorly on the judge. But the judgment could be true...

6) Many deals, if not most, are never rumored, but spring up out of the blue. Dammit, man, I cannot engage in witty repartee with an incontrovertible truth! Stop it, I say!

7) Many are eager to pass along rumors. If you are planning to post a rumor here, please check to see if it has been posted already. But whatever you do, don't take the rumors too seriously. Everytime we turn up our nose at rumors, a fairy loses its wings. You want that on your conscience? Fine. Until then, when does Zito sign with the Dodgers?

Dodgers are an interesting team. They were beat up in the series, but i think you gotta like their core more than any other team in the NL West.

I think you have to cut ties with Nomar. He's a greek tragedy for a franchise. Everyone loves him, injuries always get him. I'd project Betemit there. Though if a move happened, that's a deep position league-wide. Blalock comes up often. Maybe Beltre can return to LA?

You could also trade for ARod. I bet he'd be a great Dodger. Big stage, but less pressure. Perfect. Push for ARod.

Speaking of great Dodgers, how about the return of Gary Sheffield?

CF is the spot you need to fill, but no one available in FA. Gagne is a huge x-factor. Like Nomar, he's a heart-breaker. But I'm more inclined to take a shot on the pitcher.

A lot of DePodesta bashing in the NLDS. With the team in its current position, not to knock Ned, but I'd rather have Paul in a crossroad time like this.

I heard a rumor that D4P wants us to sign Torii Hunter.

I didn't even notice until today that Terry Collins left us.

27 It's why I hate you. I take ten-fifteen minutes to try to be funny... and you're funnier in one line. Don't think I haven't forgotten "Walking Counsell is like crossing the streams... not good."

Because I haven't. This ain't over.

(pause)

Yeah, I've been reading too many high school essays and I'm a little punchy...

27
Scanning brain for witty rejoinder...File not found...

A lot of DePodesta bashing in the NLDS. With the team in its current position, not to knock Ned, but I'd rather have Paul in a crossroad time like this.

but he's not a good communicator.

27. Hunter's option was picked up but the rumor on the last thread is that he is pushing hard for a Drew for Torii swap.

28

i'm sure he's a good guy & all but i could care less

I wonder, why is the consensus to get Zito? I think assuming we have the money, and looking at his periphials, Matsuzaka will clearly be a better pitcher.

I think Zito will be out of our price range.

31 - "But he's not a good communicator."

Perfect example of a rumor getting blown out of proportion.

36 But he definitely didn't know the territory.

36

the times i heard him he was o.k. but not in Ned's league at all.IMO.

34 - we've all seen Zito (plus I think it has something to do with the philosophy of the team he currently plays for), where as we haven't seen Matsuzaka.

Personally, I'd be happy with either one. The key is getting a top line starting pitcher. As it stands the Bums have four projected starters (Penny, Lowe, Kuo, Billingsly), and I don't think Ned and Grady are so old school that they'd go with a four man rotation.

I'm more interested in the hole at third base at the moment. And what will most likely be a hole at second in the next couple of years (Kent has to drop off at some point, right?).

1 "if colletti actually makes that trade he needs his head examined"...

How it usually comes out is: "Colletti making that trade is why he needs his head examined." In other words, people assume the rumors give a credible view of his philosophy, plans, and mindset, when it's just as likely that he's hearing these rumors the same time we are, and finds them just as ridiculous.

Even his bad deals in '06...I saw glimpses of why he made them toward the end of the season and during the playoffs. My hat's off to Colletti. If you judge him by his results, he did pretty well for a first year.

Betemit could play second and DeWitt or Abreu could be our future there.

I am a fan of Blake so I hope he breaks through and will eventually take the job.

39.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=YAwmW2S-xX4&search=Matsuzaka

there's a look at Matsuzaka pitching

If you judge him by his results, he did pretty well for a first year

I've thought about that, and tried to identify the appropriate "standard" for evaluating his performance. The most obvious is to compare the 2006 record to the 2005, but I don't think that's appropriate in this case...

31 A lot of DePodesta bashing...?

Well? The support around here for his deals was predicated on the expectation that LoDuca, Green and Stewart were inevitably, inexorably declining, and soon. Two years later, that prediction doesn't look so good.

I applaud DePodesta for not giving away good young players to patch holes in a mediocre team, and then managing to win the division despite Penny's injury. But...I think he was a bit of a piker. I don't think he was respected by his peers. They judged him as in over his head. That affected the kind of response he got from everyone he needed to deal with, from Tracy, to the players, to the other GMs. He'd be smart to stay in Alderson's shadow for awhile, and grow a few gray hairs before he tries to GM again.

Meanwhile, don't forget -- Colletti still has Ng, Logan White and Roy Smith around him. DePodesta's brain trust.

43 The most obvious is to compare the 2006 record to the 2005, but I don't think that's appropriate in this case...

Why not? Because of the injuries in '05?

It's possible that the '05 healthy could have won the NL West. But the '06 team did win the division, despite suffering almost as many injuries. No Gagne, no Werth, Nomar out for weeks, Kent playing hurt or out for weeks, Penny playing hurt, Navarro on the DL (and then, lucky us, Martin turns out to be an improvement), etc....

The other thing I credit Colletti with: Recognizing and dealing with his mistakes. The bad deals made at the beginning of the season were mostly undone by the middle of the season, and at minimal cost.

42 Was that last batter Larry Sheets?

45 I think the problem with comparing the two years is the fact that neither '06 nor '05 were the constructs of a single GM's work. I really don't think there is a good way to rate Colletti yet.

Maybe Andy Sheets.

Why not? Because of the injuries in '05?

Yes, some degree of "bounce back" was virtually inevitable, and Ned clearly doesn't deserve any credit for that. I also don't think he deserves credit for players like Martin, Billingsley, Loney, and Kemp who made valuable contributions.

The (impossible to answer) question is, how much did he improve the team over what it would have been had he not done anything (or had Depo still been around)?

38 What was the inadequacy in Depo's communication? I've heard this accusation repeatedly, but I've never heard where it comes from.

44 While Lo Duca did well, Shawn Green was pretty terrible this year at .277/.344/.432, 9.1 runs over replacement.

I heard a rumor that D4P's brain scanner is broken.

Green and Lo Duca have declined. Green's is unambiguous, but that trade is still iffy. He would have been very useful to the team, last year, the Dodgers picked up most of his guaranteed salary, and, after the fact, we can see that what came back didn't turn out to be much, though that's obviously complicated. Re-evaluating that trade could be fun, but Green seems to be a significantly degraded player from what he was after 2004, which was already much less than he had been (when his contract was signed, in particular).

Lo Duca's a little weird, given he was better this year than he has been since 2003. His glove is still bad, but his batting line looks pretty good. His line drive percentage, this year, was identical to his 2004 one, but his BABIP was thirty points higher. And, since he isn't hitting homeruns any more, that looks (to my amateur eye) to be pretty lucky. With the complicated failure of Ch-i, this deal is hard to assess, too. But Penny, all by his lonesome, was probably more useful than Lo Duca, Encarnacion, and Mota, this year. Especially to the Dodgers, considering Martin.

44 - There's also the issue that, in some senses, DePodesta is almost as much of a focus as Beane (baseball decisions wise, at least) in Moneyball. And while Beane still has the whole 'at least I played' thing going for him, DePodesta comes off very much as the guy always with his laptop. An unfair proposition, I think, but one that I believe greatly effected perception of him.

45 - How about the extra $20 million in payroll? Plus the fact that at least a reasonable portion of the team's success this season is attributable to young players arriving in 2006, who were still developing in the minors in 2005 and therefore were inaccessible - which helped manage how damaging the 2006 injuries were relative to how much they hurt the team in 2005?

I'm not saying one did a better job than the other. I give DePodesta plenty of credit for having the willingness to go out on a limb in 2004 and still win the division despite losing Penny, as you mentioned. I give Colletti a lot of credit for compiling a team that got back to the playoffs. And I don't want to add any fuel to the whole "DePo v. Ned" argument (it's a moot point, anyway).

I just agree that it's hard to analyze 2005 versus 2006. I think it's just fair to say that I'm glad the Dodgers got back to the playoffs, sad they got swept, and I'm looking forward to 2007 when even more of the kids get up to the big show.

The worst part of the Green trade is that it has netted us Mark Hendrickson

Did any of you catch some of the Fox broadcast tonight? I almost fell out of my chair when Pinella was discussing Billy Martin and wanting guys who were winners, and Pinella's success with the Reds in 90 was discussed and Pinella's desire to win. Then Lyons popped in with "So, why in the hell did you take the Tampa Bay job?" You could of heard a pin drop in the broadcast booth. Pinella must have given Lyons a death stare. I almost fell out of my chair laughing. Tom Breneman had to soothe the feathers by saying something about Devil Ray Management not fulfilling some promises made to Pinella about committment to improving the team. LOL! Hilarious!

55 - Amen to that.

56 Yes, I heard that. A classic moment. I will go easy on Steve Lyons' broadcasts for all of 2007 in appreciation for his meritorious service to my funny bone.

Piniella deserved it, anyway, for trying to present the sociopathic alcoholic sadist Billy Martin as some kind of exemplary manager in the style of Jim Leyland.

How much of our free agent $ should go to a front line starter? Ned must watch for going overboard and ending up with another albatross of a long term contract. Dodgers have been burned too many times before to sign a pitcher for longer than 3 years. I think we can get Schmidt for 2-3 years, by then, Elbert Kersaw and Co. might be ready to take the helm. I think Zito will be priced to high. I heard SD wants him real bad. I say you enter the negotiations to offer a tempting three year deal to drive up his price forcing the Padres to offer another year or two. The problem with the Japanese Pitcher that everyone covets is how much he will costs to even retain bargaining rights. He might command 4+ years also. Maybe I'm just scared off due to the Brown/Dreifort debacles.

Wow, Plaschke came out in favor of James Loney and against signing Garciaparra. I'm surprised.

It's a quite rational piece. It gives weight to arguments on both sides, and then goes where the evidence leads.

http://tinyurl.com/sx2u3

58 - I just thought, my god Steve, you got some cajones to say that to Pinella. True, but gutsy! Gave me a great laugh!!

59 - So how high do you start Schmidt then? 2 years for...$30 mil? 40? One year for $17m? Remember that Furcal deal peeps, think outside the box here!

think outside the box here!

One year for....ONE MILLION DOLLARS!!! (touches pinky to side of mouth...)

60- If Nomar is to return, he will have to accept changing position to 3B or accepting a diminished platoon job at 1b or 3B playing primarily against tough lefties for either Betemit or Loney, whoever proves they can't handle lefties. I don't think he will accept that and will end up elsewhere.

60
Does it qualify as "irony" that Plaschke routinely hammered the previous GM for not keeping "fan favorites," and is now recommending that Ned not do so?

59 I would be happy with Schmidt for a Furcal-esque contract of 3 years or so. The only problem would be if his groin causes him to lose significant time. However, I think the risk might pay off because Elbert will be ready in a year or two.

56 Lyons is hilarious. I'm glad he contributes to our road broadcasts. He's no Vin, but who is really? And hes alot better than your Rex Hudler types.

54 - I agree with your last paragraph. That sums up how I felt - post mortem on Sunday. I am really looking forward to the further development of Martin, Loney, Ethier, Bills, Kuo and Broxton. It may be 2008 now before we get LaRoche at 3B pending how fast he recovers from the torn labrum but that might set him back a full year. We may have to bite the bullet with Betemit/Nomar or R. Martinez filling in there for next year pending a FA signing of Aramis or a Blockbuster trade for A-Rod(not in favor because we may give up too much pitching in return).

66 - Agreed. 2-3 years knowing that due to his age, chance for an injury is possible, but at least you aren't putting yourselves in financial chains for 4-5 years.

65-

While it is definitely ironic, I'd rather file it under "pure stupidity".

I thought part of the Green trade was to free up money (even though we still paid a part of his salary) which in turn was used to sign Kent or Drew. The two worst moves I think Depo made was 1) trading away Dave Roberts and getting nothing for him in return. He could've been a nice number four outfielder for us the past two years. 2) trading away LoDuca without having a backup plan in place for getting an immediate replacement. I didn't mind the trade in and of itself, just the fact that we pretty much had nobody to replace him with.
vr, Xei

is it me, or does the idea of an Arod trade actually not seem all that far fetched?

With all this talk of third base, I wouldn't be against just putting Betemit there full time and having a capable platoon partner with him.

Either way, we've gotta figure out how to get a little pop in this lineup...the only places I can see where that's possible are third base and an OF spot...But what does that do with guys like Kemp and Betemit? This is going to be a very interesting offseason....

70
I think the Green money was allegedly used to sign Lowe

Driving home from my softball game this evening I tuned to the A's game which was in the 7th inning. Sure enough there was Joe Morgan yacking away. I could've sworn he made a comment similiar to this... "The A's have a tough time hitting pitchers who have a really good fastball and a really good curveball." Then I get home and the A's are batting in the bottom of the 8th. I turn the TV on thinking I am somewhat safe from dumb comments until John Kruk comes on for postgame comments. But low and behold there is this guy named Lou Pinnela sitting in the broadcasting booth. Milton Bradley tries to steal 3rd base down by 5 runs. Lou Pinella starts praising Bradley for the steal attempt saying this is the type of baseball that he likes. He makes Jim Tracy look like a genius. vr, Xei

72. You could probably make the argument that it was for anybody signed that year (Lowe, Kent or Drew). Take your pick. vr, Xei

Lyons is delirious.

Pinella also said that if the A's keep getting runners on base, eventually they'll score. Smarter than you think, he is.

I remember the majority of articles I read said that Lowe was signed with the money saved from Green's contract.

76. Probably whoever was the next of the three to sign (Drew, Kent, Lowe) after the Green trade would be attributed the title of the person signed with the money saved from Green's contract... when in reality you could say that any of the three were. Not that it really matters as long as the money was saved and put to good use. vr, Xei

I believe there is factual support for the allegation that "Depo is a poor communicator." IIRC, a number of players and their agents claimed they had not heard from him regarding trades or efforts to re-sign. (Read, Cora, Beltre, Green etc.) Specifically, Beltre made claims about buying a house and Cora had no idea he was gone. We had many discussions here last year about whether this was a consideration players deserve. Some felt the players are professionals and paid enough that they don't need their hand held while others felt some contact would have been the right thing to do. Regardless I don't think its pure "rumor."

Also I think there is no doubt that Depo faced a perfect storm last year. Although Ned had some injuries this year, 2005 injuries were unprecedented. (BTW, for those of you citing Gagne as evidence of this years injuries, keep in mind he was gone for most of 2005 as well.) A philosophical difference with a manager he didn't want in the first place. A budget from the owner that was heading down, not up (like Ned's). And finally and most important, prospects who were at least 1-2 years from being even slightly ready. Finally, Ned had the benefit of Depo's experience, an owner who got out of the way a year too late, and favorable PR from the knuckleheads at the LAT. That all being said, I think Depo gambled and lost on nearly every bet. Some bad choices. Some bad luck.

One other irony: Of the 8 teams in the playoffs, Depo's fingerprints are on three of them. Ned's other team, the Giants are at home and in complete disarray. If they are even contending for a wildcard over the next three years I will be shocked.

Plaschke is loading the dice to make himself look smart. His column is based on the premise that there is a GM out there who would hand Nomar a 2- or even a 3-year deal at $8mil/year. If that's true, it's not "an intriguing situation" as Colletti put it. It's vaya con Dios, go take their money, bub.

The "intriguing situation" will be, what do the Dodgers do once Garciaparra realizes the market for a guy who missed 1/4th of the season to injury, and who faded in the second half is a one-year deal with incentives, just like this year. If Nomar's agent comes back and says, "OK, Ned, I'll take last year's deal again this year, and I'll start in whatever position you want me to," that will be a situation, intriguing or no.

The other intriguing situation is the timing of the decision, given arbitration deadlines.

I wonder if a Clemens scenario is under consideration. Let him go, don't offer arbitration, but tell him the door is open in May if he doesn't find anything better.

In that instance, is there a way he can work out with the team in Spring Training?

53. Andrew, Green did hit 49 and 42 HRs (hate the term "bombs") for the Dodgers in 2001 and 2002, respectivly. Then messed up his shoulder. Never been the same since but he had a couple of productive years.

BTW, whoever suggested signing Shefield, if that day ever comes again, it will be my last day as a Dodger fan. He is a cancer.

*72. D4P
70
I think the Green money was allegedly used to sign Lowe*

I think you mean the Green money was allegedly used to sign Lowe's bar tab.

I agree we should let Nomar walk if its going to take a multi-year deal at $8M but if he shows up in a Padre uniform it's gonna sting a little.

why does joe torre continue to let steinbrenner treat him like trash? i would have just left if i was torre, they dont deserve him. he has handled himself with nothing but class since taking that job.

I don't understand why Colletti would not offer arbitration to Garciaparra or Maddux. He's not a bad piece to have for a 8m or so they'd command on a one year contract, both would certainly be tradeable assets, and if they does sign elsewhere, the draft picks will be put to good use. Assuming, of course, draft pick compensation stays.

I can't imagine Wilson Betemit not starting at 3B next year. I also can't imagine Wilson Betemit being a good defender at 2B. With LaRoche's double labrum surgery, it certainly looks smart to have Betemit. I'd love a Betemit/Saenz platoon at 3B.

It has to be a complicated offseason if the Dodgers want to improve the offense - Martin, Loney, Kent, Betemit, Ethier, and Drew are all worthy of a starting spot, which means that the only real position to improve on with a free agent signing would be CF, and Mike Cameron is about the extent of the market there. Ned would have to trade away an incumbent starter if he wants to sign a player at another position.

I've watched some Japanese league games, and I'm really impressed with Matsuzaka, but I wouldn't be surprised if he has a team in mind that he will try to go to, like Hideki Matsui with the Yankees and Ichiro Suzuki with the Mariners. I think he's proven himself to be healthy enough that we shouldn't doubt his durability anymore.

I wonder who would blink first on a Brad Penny, Xavier Paul, and Chin-Lung Hu for Andruw Jones proposal.