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SI.com
NL West Preview
Evaluating Defense
Colletti and Depo
World Baseball Classic
Minor League Broadcasters
Slow Starts
Eric Gagne
Groundball Pitchers
Dodger Prospects
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Humbled Angels
You Be the Manager
Eric Gagne II
Unreliable Relievers
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It's Okay To Sell
Dodger Turnaround
Andre Ethier
Padres-Dodgers Showdown
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2006 Emmys Nominees*
*Comedy Series
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Office Online
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Friday Night Lights
Robert Benton
ABC Fridays
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Sublime Slime
Also ...
A Season in Savannah (Stanford Magazine)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2005) (Hardball Times)
Rick Monday (Baseball Analysts)
Baseball's Odd Couple (Baseball Prospectus)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2006) (Hardball Times)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2007) (Hardball Times)
Dodger home record: 39-30 (.565)
When Jon attended: 5-3 (.625)
When Jon didn't: 34-27 (.557)
Dodgers at home: 745-600 (.554)
Jon attended: 293-233 (.557)*
Jon didn't: 457-374 (.550)
* includes road games attended
Current Roster with Estimated 2008 Salaries
(updated March 28)
Most figures are estimates (some are wild estimates) but will be updated as information comes in. Corrections welcome.
More contract details here.
Starting Pitchers (5)
$12,300,000 Hiroki Kuroda
$10,000,000 Derek Lowe
$9,500,000 Brad Penny
$7,000,000 Esteban Loaiza
*$500,000 Chad Billingsley
Total: $39,300,000
Bullpen (6)
$2,000,000 Takashi Saito
$1,925,000 Joe Beimel
$1,125,000 Scott Proctor
*$500,000 Jonathan Broxton
$500,000 Chan Ho Park
*$400,000 Hong-Chih Kuo
Total: $6,450,000
Starting Lineup (8)
$14,100,000 Andruw Jones
$13,000,000 Rafael Furcal
$9,000,000 Jeff Kent
$8,500,000 Nomar Garciaparra
$8,000,000 Juan Pierre
$500,000 Russell Martin
*$400,000 James Loney
*$400,000 Matt Kemp
Total: $53,900,000
Bench (6)
$875,000 Gary Bennett
$600,000 Mark Sweeney
$424,500 Andre Ethier
$391,000 Delwyn Young
$390,000 Chin-Lung Hu
$390,000 Blake DeWitt
Total: $3,071,000
Disabled List
$12,000,000 Jason Schmidt
*$400,000 Tony Abreu
*$390,000 Andy LaRoche
Total: $12,790,000
Also Paying ...
$1,000,000 Brett Tomko
$750,000 Odalis Perez
$540,000 Yhency Brazoban
$500,000 Randy Wolf
$487,500 Jason Repko
$135,225 Rudy Seanez
$100,000 Mike Lieberthal
$50,000 Ramon Martinez
Total: $3,562,725
Working total: *$113,268,725
*Rough salary estimate
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1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
Baseball Toaster runs on some experimental software called Fairpole. It's still under development.
For more information, please visit the Fairpole blog, or read the FAQ.
For those who aren't yet familiar with potential Dodger pitching target Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated has a primer.
Of one thing there is no doubt: Matsuzaka has major league talent. One National League scout called the Seibu Lions righthander, who's expected to be made available soon to all 30 major league teams through Japan's posting system, "one of the 10 best pitchers in the world." Chiba Lotte Marines manager Bobby Valentine, the former Rangers and Mets skipper, says, "I saw the guys pitching in the [major league] playoffs, and there's no comparison." But one big question remains: Who will pony up the more than $100 million it might cost to get Matsuzaka?
The posting system -- a sealed-bid auction among the major league teams for the exclusive rights to negotiate with a player -- is expected to fetch as much as $30 million for financially troubled Seibu (whose owner was convicted in 2005 of insider trading and given a 30-month suspended sentence). On top of that it will take perhaps another $75 million over the next five years to sign Matsuzaka.
The Yankees are so enamored of Matsuzaka that assistant general manager Jean Afterman practically lives on Continental Airlines' Newark-to-Tokyo route, and the organization hired Shoichi Kida, who attended the same high school as Matsuzaka and briefly played with him on the Lions, as a scout (although one source says the two are "not especially close"). The Mariners, Mets, Red Sox, Dodgers, Rangers and perhaps a handful of other teams may yet make a play for the 6-foot, 187-pound Matsuzaka, who was MVP of the World Baseball Classic (3-0 with a 1.38 ERA) last spring and then went 17-5 with a 2.13 ERA and 200 strikeouts for Seibu.
In his eight pro seasons Matsuzaka has won four Pacific League strikeout titles, two ERA titles and one Sawamura award (the Japanese equivalent of the Cy Young). Less easy to quantify is the number of pitches in the Japanese ace's arsenal. One National League scout lists seven: 96-mph fastball, cutter, Japanese "shuuto" (like a two-seam fastball), curveball, changeup, splitter and slider; another NL scout says Matsuzaka throws three different sliders, bringing his total to nine pitches. ...
And then there's the whole gyroball thing, though I'm not sure why this is so controversial.
In the same issue of the magazine, Albert Chen suggest that baseball's overall health, buoyed by high ticket revenue and labor peace and belied by the recent postseason television ratings, could fuel bidding wars for free agents.
"Get set for some crazy contracts," one National League general manager anonymously told Chen. "It's going to be a seller's market because everyone's got money to spend."
J.D. Drew, who ranked seventh among N.L. first basemen and outfielders in the newly released Elias Sports Bureau player ratings, is expected not to opt out of his Dodger contract, but the remaining $33 million he is owed through 2009 may start to look more like a bargain. Which reminds me ... from the Dodger Thoughts comments the other day:
J.D. Drew's on-base percentage and slugging in 2006:Runners on: .406/.486
Scoring position: .421/.480
Runners on, two out: .459/.570
Scoring position, two out: .437/.471
Man on third, less than two out: .426/.529
Close and late: .397/.533 (results in the 7th inning or later with the batting team either ahead by one run, tied or with the potential tying run at least on deck.)Drew struck out, swinging or looking, 55 times in more than 300 plate appearances with runners on, or about once every five trips. That ratio more or less holds in the other categories.
(In response to the commenter who said Drew strikes out all the time in clutch situations), if one watched J.D. Drew during his 146 games this season, in real time, on real fields, with varying game pressure, that's what one would have seen. It's not as if the stats are taken from some fictional set of games.
Update: The Dodgers are now shying away from bidding on Matsuzaka, according to Steve Henson of the Times.
Kazumi Saito of the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks won it this year for the third time.
Of course, they were also the best bet to win the World Series last month. :)
BTW, isn't a gyro ball the same thing as a knuckleball.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gyroball
It's a one sealed bid sort of auction.
A gyroball is a breaking back that when flat resembles a slider, when it is on its break is measured in feet.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sboi0EWp8ao
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yimyfjcf2f4
149. Robert Daeley
Again, Great American Ballpark = Homerun Hitter's Heaven. Do not let the inflated numbers distract you.
Well, actually, no. Dunn's 2006 H/A splits:
Home: .231/.362/.502
Away: .236/.368/.479
So, basically no split at all. A little more slugging at home (22 HRs, vs. 18 on the road), but better average and on-base away from GAB. Twice as many doubles on the road. More RBIs at home, but given how close Dunn's splits are, that must be a function of big H/A splits for his teammates.
In fact, if Dunn is to be criticized, it's for NOT taking sufficient advantage of his home park.
But if they are, can we have Steve Lyons do those games instead?
Interestingly, he had twice as many doubles away as home this year.
Take a look at 2005:
H 274/418/639, HR 26
A 221/359/446, HR 14
or 2004:
H 265/390/600, HR 25
A 266/386/539, HR 21
He is consistently inconsistent in the slugging department. ;)
I would think that a knuckleball would be a gyrolessball.:)
Clemens: A no-decision for 2007
Am I the only one who has grown really tired of this annual headline? Does anyone outside of Texas or NY really care anymore?
I never cared
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xsptUfnhVcc
From what I can tell, coming out of the hand, and for the first 30 feet or so, the ball appears to be boring in on the batter, then suddenly appears to break down and away from the lefty batter. It looks almost like your standard Lowe/Maddux cut fastball, only with much more downward break to it...Jon, is there any way to have Will do a once-and-for-all post about this?
http://www.rotoauthority.com/2005/10/daisuke_matsuza.html
And re: Matsuzaka saying he does not actually throw the pitch, methinks maybe he has learned a trick or two from Maddux in the mental department...
22 - Surely Red Sox Nation still cares, as gullible as they are...
http://tinyurl.com/ybbxpx
Drew moves up to 7th place!
apparently the dodgers have no plans to bid for matsuzaka..
i wonder if he is just saying that as to not show the dodgers hand too early.
Either way, we have money to spend this offseason and it seems like Colletti wants a top tier free agent.
he Angels, according to industry sources, also plan to bid for left-hander Barry Zito, the top starter on the free-agent market, but it appears they will not enter the bidding for highly touted Japanese right-hander Daisuke Matsuzaka. The Dodgers are engaged in serious discussions this week about whether to post a bid on Matsuzaka, a 26-year-old right-hander who was the most valuable player of the World Baseball Classic last spring
We appreciate the effort.
I give Jon an "E"
I guess I'll settle for Zito.
Landing a pricey starting pitcher and a proven slugger are top priorities.
It doesn't say anything about being good. I'd consider Tomko to be "pricey" considering the amount of production he gives. I hear Jeff Suppan is look for a big contract.
How about Tim Thomas? Wow..
Either way it sucks.
"Burrell's representatives indicated yesterday that he would accept a trade to the Giants. That team could ask Burrell to switch back to first base, the position he played in 2000...
In trade, the Giants might want the Phillies, who are looking for bullpen help, to take closer Armando Benitez, who comes with plenty of baggage: a $7.6 million salary for this season, the last on his contract; his bad knees, which limited him to 41 games this season; and a poor reputation as a teammate."
http://www.philly.com/mld/philly/sports/baseball/15917763.htm
This could get interesting...
I don't trust Colletti yet. He could easily give up on the Dodgers youth in favor of something old.
48 - Interesting. This Ned of ours is one complex character.
drew slugged .498 last year and a has a career slug% of 512.
Drew's one of those players who inspires such hatred that people apparently feel compelled to just make up stuff that's patently false. Why?
He doesn't smile enough. Or break bats on his knee. Stuff like that. People want passion. But more importantly, they want readily apparent passion.
48-It may be inappropriate to wonder where this speculation comes from, about Colletti not liking LaRoche or more specifically I guess to wonder why he wouldn't, since his performance is certainly promising-enough-on-paper, and I'd think 30+ HR potential forgives bad breath or a sick sense of humor. Is it work ethic? Can one say any more?
http://tinyurl.com/wphqc
Here's a picture of Dunlap I took last month. He's still pounding the Big Macs as heavily as ever, obviously. (Incidentally, Jon and his fellow Stanford alumni may recognize the other, taller guy in the shot... John Mayberry Jr.)
http://img110.imageshack.us/img110/1980/dunlapmayberryzf1.jpg
http://img120.imageshack.us/img120/5670/dewitt1lj0.jpg
http://img526.imageshack.us/img526/6173/dewitt2zn0.jpg
He didn't have that strong a season, so I think most people are figuring he'll stick with the 3 years and $33 million left on his contract. But with the new CBA in effect, the thin FA class this winter, and talk of how flush with money teams are nowadays, I'm wondering now if he'll opt out after all.
Andohbytheway ($1 to Bill Simmons), his agent is The Boras. If there's a nickel more to be made elsewhere, you know that's where he'll be going.
Stan from Tacoma
"strikes out all the time in clutch situations"
- it is that far (my take) from what I said.
Please refer to standard # 6, and others, and take a few days off for penance.
I am, on the other hand, guilty as charged when it comes to sufficient real-game views of J.D., and made the mistake of transferring too much evidence of Pat Burrell to Drew's account. I have formed my impressions of the latter over time, and this year, mostly post-season (he had a statistically fine September, no?). I'd wanna see the stat
on his caught looking in what I define as
"game situations." The "K" stats, as offered, don't tell me what I need to know
(and generally, for a guy who's not a premium power bat, the failure to even put a ball in play one-in-five is not impressive, even if consistent with other stats.).
For my sins, I'm givin' myself two months away.
Just add: absent an extraordinary next three years, J.D. will never be seen as a bargain, relative or any other kind, in this camp.
And lastly, since I'm not here regularly, and won't be, for a while, let me make it clear I was a Paul guy when he was hired, and became disenchanted quick; I was not a Ned guy when he was hired, and am a little apprehensive after watching this year, and then reading the Times' piece on him today.
I do not agree that my take is far from what you said or implied.
"Time after time" can at least be demonstrated.
My mistake was, like yours following, being disrespectful of words and their meanings. I should not have put J.D. Drew in Pat Burrell's boat, and your stats indicate I may have to find a better one for J.D.
"Time after time" in a spirited give-and-take
transliterated to "all the time" is a violation of the letter of #6, and the spirit of a couple others. Have at it, then take your days. And I just upped my own penance for foolishness to a year. Sayonara!
That said, I'm always up for a little mutiny. I hereby sentence Jon to picking up trash on the highway tomorrow morning, for three hours. Working up the proper punishment for D4P will be a labor of love.
The old school belief that minor leaguers are supposed to be in awe of major leaguers, are supposed to be quiet and know their place, was illustrated by many statements that Colletti and Grady Little made about the Dodger rookies in 2006, though it seemed to be tolerated when Martin didn't follow the script all the other rookies supposedly adhered to.
Kemp, Loney, Abreu, and Betemit all seem to be doing well so far, although reliever Mark Alexander didn't last too long.
I have post over at minorleagueball.com for the details.
Wait a second: what did I do? Here I am, minding my own business, and all of a sudden I'm an Enemy Combatant...
And Torii Hunter's business
Apparently Japanese teams use a 6-man rotation. So if a starter goes only about once a week, is a higher pitch average than MLB norms dangerous?
This writer seems to think so. Excerpts from and link to a story dealing with this and other things follow. (Page 2 of this has an interesting bit about how Pujols wasn't very far from being a Red Sox.)
"Perhaps because they knew they would sell his rights after the season, the Seibu Lions allowed the 26-year-old Matsuzaka to carry a tremendous workload this season. In his final start, a 13-strikeout shutout in the first round of the playoffs, Matsuzaka threw 137 pitches, and that wasn't atypical.
"While going 17-5 with a 2.13 ERA, Matsuzaka topped 120 pitches 12 times in 25 regular-season starts. It's true he got more rest than major-league pitchers, as the Lions used a six-man rotation, but 115 pitches per start is still an alarming number. He twice topped 140 pitches, with a high of 145.
"Say this for Matsuzaka, though. He has always been a workhorse.
"He came into prominence in Japan, where high school baseball is king, with a memorable performance in the 1998 National High School Baseball Championship. When the quarterfinal game went 17 innings, Matsuzaka threw 250 pitches. He played the outfield the next day until he pitched for the save in the ninth. He bounced back to start the championship game a day later, throwing a nine-inning no-hitter.
"That's a hoss."
http://tinyurl.com/yxqbxa
Hey Eric, do you live in Hawaii or were you just visiting? I was on vacation there right before the HWB League started and would've loved to go to the games. What are they like?
Wow, I didn't know Miller was doing so well, although I was alwa