After talking to Boras, he doesn't feel Maddux will be resigned but he hopes that will change

Sounds like Scott needs to add laminate to the gloss...

"If Dodgers lose out on Soriano and they can acquire a pitcher he will look to trade one young pitcher to get a good power bad in the lineup, not a great one."

So long Chad Billingsley or Jonathan Broxton.

So long Chad Billingsley or Jonathan Broxton

Hello Delino DeShields

From the previous thread ...

I just finished reading Plaschke's piece on Beimel and have two questions. Did Biemel really become "... a Dodgers villain the size of Barry Bonds."? Jon aleady answered, thanks.

Also, Plaschke says Beimel's ERA against left-handed hitters was 2.34. How is an ERA against left-handed hitter (or right-handed hitter, for that matter) figured? I'd still like to know if anyone can answer this.

2. Can Billingsley or Broxton bring Manny Ramirez in return?

The combination of posts 2 and 3 made me throw up in my mouth a little.

4- Did I misunderstand your question (the second one)? I thought I answered it.

5 Rephrase that as can Billingsley and Broxton bring Manny Ramirez, then add a few more players, and the answer might be maybe.

I would guess that if the Dodgers woulnd't ask Boston to help with Manny's salary, the number of prospects wouldn't be as great.

4 Beimel seemed like the villain at the time, but poor hitting, poor pitching and poor defense during the playoffs erased all of that ire pretty quickly. Cant blame one reliever when the whole team played like they didnt want to make it to the next round.

I'd still like to know if anyone can answer this

I think Andrew addressed it in the previous thread, though I have a question as well. If a pitcher faces (for example) 3 straight right-handed hitters, and they all walk to load the bases, then a lefty comes up and drives in a run with an Erstie, I assume that run counts against the pitcher's "vs. lefty ERA split." But it seems to me that that split is clearly misleading in this case...

Split ERA is less useful than other split stats since it's divorced, even further, from context. Giving up a single to the lefthander with the bases empty is without cost, whereas giving up the same single to a righty with the bases full is very expensive. But it's computed just the way I said, I'm pretty sure.

ERA isn't very good, in very many ways. But it's still better than BARISP.

Right. As D4P was saying. . .

7 - Andrew, thanks for the answer. I left that thread, thought it was dead.

So, if you come in with two out and none on, give up a single to a lefty, then a two-run rally killer to a righty, then strike out a lefty you get the following:

ERA versus RH: infinity (0 IP, 1 ER)
ERA versus LH: 27.27 (.1 IP, 1 ER)
ERA overall: 54.54 (.1 IP, 2 ER)
Right?

13- Your ERA vs LH is 0 (.1 IP 0ER), since no lefty knocked in a run. And ∞ vs. RH (2 ER 0 IP).

11 - I recognize that fact that ERA isn't a great stat, but was/am curious about the math involved in such stuff. I really like statistics, but am more of a verbal person and sometimes have trouble wrapping my mind around the science of numbers.

Point #7 makes me sad, I guess that I won't be posting much Rays/Dodgers stuff and will basically posting Dodger-only stuff here.

::tears up::

It's been great, guys, it's been great.

::runs away sobbing::

:-D

14 - ERA vs LH is 0 But a lefty scored the first run. If he didn't reach base, the inning would have ended. Shouldn't the fact that a lefty scored a run count towards ERA (rather the what handed batter drove it in)?

Again, I'm not arguing, just trying to understand.

Hopefully, Colletti is just putting out false information to other GMs with this interview. The young pitcher reference was surprising given that only Billingsley or Broxton would get much in return. The minor league pitchers are still 1+ years away from seeing time with the bigs.
vr, Xei

Last I looked Kuo and Elbert and Meloan also should qualify as "young" pitching. I have no problem with them moving Broxton for hitting. Given the current environment I'd be completely stunned if Billingsly is traded but wouldn't be surprised if any of the others are dealt.
If Ned isn't going to sign Carlos Lee because of defense he probably isn't going to be making a play for Manny or Dunn if you can believe anything he says in a radio interview. Vernon Wells is starting to make more sense with Drew gone.

If Ethier and Kemp can match their Zips projection I think we'd be very happy.

zips love the dodgers young positional players..

Ethier: 296/366/463
Kemp: 292/342/478 (if he does that playing CF, thats ROY)
Laroche: 274/359/443
martin: 279/359/432
loney: 297/351/434

from rosenthal..

Phillies left fielder Pat Burrell has informed the club that he would accept a trade only to the Yankees, Red Sox or a west-coast club, according to a source with knowledge of his thinking. The Phillies badly want to move Burrell, who has a complete no-trade clause. They also would be willing to trade center fielder Aaron Rowand for a quality reliever

(if he does that playing CF, thats ROY)

Didn't Kemp get enough ABs to lose his rookie status...?

22

oops!

21- Tomko, Hendrickson and Toby hall for Burrell and Rowand heck we'll throw in Dessens and Repko too.

21

Broxton, Ethier, Tomko & Kent for Rowand, Burrell & Utley. Done.

17- If the metric were fair, it would apportion credit for the run to each of the batters necessary for it to have scored. But it doesn't. It apportions it all to the one who was hitting during the run scoring event.

I think. Everything I say is subject to overrule by people who know better than I do.

If ZIPS is even close, we don't need to sign any stinking sluggers. I felt that way before I read the ZIPS Projection. I don't think we'll miss Mr. Drew too much. If Kemp gets his ABs, he'll have stats just as good. Ethier apparently doesn't have the HR power but in other aspects, he's just as good. And younger. And cheaper. My only complaqint about ZIPS is that I want Lugo and his numbers removed from our team. He is not and never will be part of this team. I now set out to remove all records of his ever being here. I shall remove him from the memory of Dodger Fans forever. In the fifty-some years of following the Dodgers, I have seen some bad players, real stinkers, but none have insulted us by their presence anywhere close to what he did. I would take Jim Tracey back before I'd allow Lugo to wear Dodger Blue again.
(Goes away spitting and muttering and wringing hands...)

24 - heh, I shoulda refreshed first...I do wonder what's realistic for Burrell, and if taking on that money can yield another decent player from them.

The sooner the better, becasue Burrell money may not look so bad after a few FA signings this winter.

25 + free agent money spent on Zito and Schmidt = Championship

Burrell in LF or 1st base would help the Dodgers immensely on offense.

If Nomar is re-signed, I hope its for 3rd base. Nomar at 3b, Burrell at 1st, and Kemp/Byrnes/Ethier in the OF is the best I'm going to hope for this winter.

And there's no way the Phillies are going to trade Chase Utley for anyone on the Dodgers.

They'd probably say "No" to an Utley for Billingsley/RussMartin deal.

I think I'd even say no to that, and I think thats the best the Dodgers can offer.

27 - You're gonna have to expunge Scott Erickson from the records first

21- What do you think think it will take to get Burrell and Rowand? If Burrell will be a salary dump and Rowand was had for a mystery Thome, what would it take to get these guys?

We'll throw in Beimel if they'll keep Rowand in return.

Ben Johnson is no longer a Padre

Burrell is a career 100 Rate2 and .871 zone rating in left.

36 He also fared surprisingly well in the Fielding Bible, especially under Arm ratings. Although last year he had those foot problems that slowed him down. If Benitez can get it done, we should not let this guy go.

Burrell looks like he would be a bit of a step down defensively, but offensively a decent replacement for JD Drew.

I heard a portion of the interview this am, and to clarify on point 6 I don't believe he said he'd trade a "young" pitcher (ie Billz). I think he said should he acquire depth in the rotation (think Schmidt and Lilly), he would consider trading pitching for a lower-tier hitter.

I took that to mean Brad Penny.

Bill Plaschke opinions are measured by a highly specialized piece of technical equipment, the Dumbometer. "Adrian Beltre should not be judged by the year he had in Seattle but by the year he would have had in Los Angeles" has a Dumbometer rating of 100, "LoDuca for Penny was a lousy trade" has a Dumbometer rating of 90. On this scale, saying that Beimel is as big a villain as Bonds falls within the 60-70 range, indicating an obviously incorrect opinion on a trivial subject.

38 - I'd be worried about a Burrell/Lofton/Ethier outfield, left to right, with Repko being a defensive replacement.

Someone might have brought this up yesterday, but I just skimmed through Vinny's chat yesterday on Dodgers.com, here is his response re the Dodgers leaving Vero Beach.

Base_Ball: Would you have any hard feelings if the Dodgers leave Vero Beach and move to Glendale, Arizona? Being a Dodgers fan and living in Phoenix, I wouldn't miss a day here in Arizona.

Scully: I would think it's time for a move. Vero Beach was greatly associated with the Dodgers, but particularly the Brooklyn Dodgers and it is far, far away from our fan base in Los Angeles and Southern California. It would make sense in many ways, including business, radio, television and others to move closer to Southern California.

First, his responses on the chat are filled with complete sentences, now someone is transcrbing them for the chat but just like his broadcasts, there are no shortcuts nor slang.

Second, I do think Vin gives a very sound answer to the question and while he is a paid employee of the Dodgers, I have never felt he just gave out the company line.

I see Broxton and someone else going to the Devil Rays for Crawford.

I see Burrell plahying first base for the GIants.

43 - The Rays just got the rights to the Japanese 3B yesterday, which I guess eliminates the possibility of including Betemit or LaRoche to the Rays. It'd probably be all pitching for Crawford, unless they wanted Loney.

Kuo, Broxton, Loney for Crawford?

43

drays are going to ask a ton for crawford and broxton isnt enough to be the centerpiece.

Here's another item on J.D. Drew from Tuesday's edition of the San Diego Union Tribune:

The Padres and agent Scott Boras plan to meet this month to discuss free agents such as outfielder J.D. Drew and pitchers Barry Zito and Greg Maddux. The Padres tend to pass on Boras clients or trade them before they qualify for arbitration, but they are curious about Drew, who recently opted for free agency with three years and $33 million left on his contract.

Drew's desire for no-trade powers likely will be part of talks. Before Drew left Los Angeles, he sought no-trade powers, which would keep his family in Pasadena through 2009. The Dodgers declined and Drew, empowered by salary leverage in the marketplace – which Boras rated the No. 1 factor, acted on an opt-out clause.

Anticipating a dearth of center fielders in 2007, Boras got the opt-out clause when he and then-Dodgers General Manager Paul Depodesta, now with the Padres, negotiated the five-year contract. Drew had sought a no-trade clause in those talks.

"J.D. has the ability now to get a no-trade clause," Boras said yesterday. "That's something Paul wouldn't do. Because he wouldn't, I got the opt-out option in the contract. Paul felt he wanted flexibility. I felt I'll take the flexibility, too."

Drew is a long shot to sign with the Padres. If he did, it would be as a right-fielder. Some clubs like him in center. Boras said clubs are offering five years for Drew.

43

I see dead people.

I like the idea of Burrell playing left field for us. His huge contract means we wouldn't have to give up as much for him as someone of comparable worth. Anyone else think we could get rid of Tomko as part of the deal (obviously we'll need to include more).

46 - That's interesting. Thanks.

46
Sounds like Boras failed with Ned. No worries: just move on to the next team. You can fail 29 times, but as long as you get it right once, you're a genius.

Smart move to give the opt-out rather than a 5yr no trade clause.

No-trade clauses can really hamper a club. If a player opts out, it doesnt really hamper a team. They just spend the money on something else.

50
Yeah. And it's nice to hear that Depo actually "won" a facet of the negotiations with Boras.

If I am Pat Gillick I start at Burrell for Betemit and work from there. Of course if I am Pat Gillick I keep Burrell and stay the hell away from Soriano too, so who knows what he has in mind.

44 is interesting, Rocc any idea on whether the NDRO wants pitching that is MLB ready or if they are shooting for 2008-09 at this point?

49 - No. This is just like all the idiocy when Abreu was traded this summer, only a few teams each year are capable of taking on the huge $$ contract that Drew/Abreu want. Boras's skill is in convincing the 5-6 teams in that upper spending tier that they cannot afford to let this player pass by, and that he is worth the investment.

Will JD Drew over Wily Mo be the difference for Boston in winning the AL East next year? And/or adding Matsuzaka instead of letting the NYY negotiate with him? Saying there are 29 other teams to negotiate with is not nearly what actually happens, because only a few teams can afford that type of expenditure every year, while most others (read: Baltimore, Pittsburgh, etc) can be crippled by one wrong guess.

50 - This is why the Soriano pursuit makes so little sense to me. Here's a guy who has already been traded twice, is demanding a contract far above his market value, and teams are falling all over themselves for him?

If I am Pat Gillick I start at Burrell for Betemit and work from there. Of course if I am Pat Gillick

how about the 8th best left hander in the american league last year instead?

so if arod opts out next year and hits the market, he would only be 32yrs old.

arod, wells, druw jones, zambrano..those are some big names for 2007.

Burrell for Betemit

Deal

Betemit only position on the Dodgers should be at 2nd, and doesnt seem like they are gonna try him there. He's not going to play ahead of LaRoche, and if Nomar resigns thats another guy that would play ahead of Betemit. I'd be looking to deal Betemit this winter for something good. Getting Burrell would be nice.

54- if Arod opts out? In case someone wants to give him more than $26 million/yr?

Will JD Drew over Wily Mo be the difference for Boston in winning the AL East next year?

"Yes"

Boras's skill is in convincing the 5-6 teams in that upper spending tier that they cannot afford to let this player pass by, and that he is worth the investment

So, does he emphasize things those teams already know about his players, or does he tell them things they don't already know? If the former, I don't see why that would make much difference. If the latter, what can he possibly tell them that they don't already know that is useful to them in evaluating the player's worth? Does he keep special stats? Does he have a patented Chemistrometer or Charactometer?

It would also help the BoSox if Beckett would quit serving up home run balls

58 - simulation videos. Perhaps Boras showed Kevin Malone one of Darren Dreifort no-hitting the Dodgers 3 times a season as a Giant

if Arod opts out? In case someone wants to give him more than $26 million/yr?

after 2007, he will have 3yrs at 81mil remaining.

he will only be 32, heralded as one of the best players ever, i could seeing him get a 6yr 120 mil deal. that would give him more long term security, plus 40 extra million dollars.

and if he wants to leave NY, this is basically his only chance.

I could see A-Rod opting out. He might not get $26 mil/yr anywhere, bu he could get a deal for more than $81 mil total and more importanlty get out of New York.

Can't imagine a team giving JD a no trade deal for 5 years with JD's health history. He just isn't worth it. Kudo's to Ned for saying no to the extension if it had to include a no trade clause. I understand why players want them, I don't understand why teams would hand them out.
Boston is a smart team, they may have been very interested in JD but once the news hits that he's demanding a 5 year deal and a no trade I doubt he gets both even in this shallow FA pool. I think it is just another bargaining tool by Boras to get more money to give up the no trade.

58 - I believe Boras has his own statisticians, yes.

I just got an email from a friend who's a Cubs fan and it said: "I was feeling really ridiculous that my team just signed Mark DeRosa to a $13 million contract, but then I remembered that your team got two players thrown out at home on the same play in an important playoff game."

I responded that this wasn't a very nice email.

64
If that's true, and if they produce meaningful stats that no one else does, then I can see how that would be useful. But it's not like he's gonna show the stats that make his players look bad. If he has good stats, he'll show them. If not, he'll probably focus on something else.

If I was a GM or owner, I would have a hard time finding a less-trustworthy set of stats than those presented to me by players' agents.

65 - "in an important playoff game."

I'll take making the dumb play over watching it.

Ours was a one-time thing. Theirs will be a daily thing for three years.

Ha.

Plus, the playoff game wasn't really that important...

D4P, this one's for you:

http://tinyurl.com/ygnobt

Everybody else, let's go retro! Alllll the way back to the year 2000:

http://tinyurl.com/yahg6m

65 - The price for 35-year old career backup catchers has been set.

2yrs/$5.25M for Henry Blanco.

Those Crazy Cubbies...

69
A few tidbits:

Want Zito? Boras says Zito, 28, is destined to be the finest left-handed starter since Steve Carlton by the time he's 35. There's a fancy 74-page glossy book to prove it.

Steve Carlton? Wow, I'm convinced. And look at this neato book. Soooo glosssyyy.......

The Boston Red Sox might have won the bidding rights to Matsuzaka, but don't think there will be any kind of discount, Boras says. He brings up left-hander Roy Oswalt's recent five-year, $73 million deal with Houston.

Gee, if someone else paid a lot of money for another player, I should pay a lot for this one.

Interested in Greg Maddux? Be prepared to shell out not only for the privilege of having a future Hall of Famer on staff but also to remind everyone the Dodgers went 38-19 after his arrival last July.

No better way to evaluate a pitcher's current worth than his likely HOF status and his most recent team's record with him on the squad.

Jeff Weaver was dumped by the Los Angeles Angels last summer, then went 3-2 with a 2.43 earned-run average in five postseason starts to help the St. Louis Cardinals win the World Series. Be prepared to pay for his services.

5 games? Big enough sample size for me!

If this is the kind of junk that GMs find convincing, Lord help us. My respect for the Beanes and Depos of the world increases on a daily basis.

One thing Zito isnt is Carlton.

He plays on better teams.

Kuo, Broxton, Loney and Repko for Jason Bay.
I threw in Repko because I thought Jim Tracy liked him. Jim would probably give him 500 ABs.

71 - Okay, D4P, we get it.

I think basing an opinion on how USA Today sums up a story isn't quite the way to go.

Good lord, this market scares me. I would rather sit this FA season out (for the most part), and let the kids play.

The few contracts that have already been handed out are unfathomable.

Okay, D4P, we get it

Somebody stop me!

There's a body of work on the subject, D4P. Next time, just submit a bibliography.

75 - makes one think the owners must not be doing very badly in the revenue game.

Is a contract really unfathomable if it has a positive effect on revenue? Just because those dollars seem absurd, the revenue they bring in must be absurd or the owners wouldn't pay $51 million to negotiate a 5/$75 year deal with a pitcher yet to pitch in the US.

Problem is, it's not an equal spread of revenue, so becomes more and more of a have/have-not situation. Whether the "haves" end up with the WS or not, we'll see...

We need to hurry up and lock up Saito.

Did anyone else notice that Nomar was .229/.286/.408 after the All-Star Break?

What can we realistically get for Penny?

79 - Saito's old - no rush there. He may even choose to go back to Japan.

Yes, indeedy.

Probably more later on in the offseason (when Penny's 2/$18M deal looks like a bargain compared to the Gil Meche's and Ted Lilly's of the world).

So, if I read LA Observed correctly, it looks like our own Mr. Weisman is going to be in the next L.A. Magazine issue as one L.A.'s 122 most influential people.

We are not worthy.

for those interested, below is the link to the podcast off am570 of the colleti interview this morning.

http://tinyurl.com/y3nekb

my 2 cents is that I don't care much for simers, but roggin is alright by me.

81 - Nor am I. Thanks to everyone for being ... uh, influenced?

Now people will check out the site to see the writing of ... commenter "Inside Baseball."

I hope Jon beats Rick Monday on that list.

You could also take out "on that list" and it would be acceptable.

Adding "with a stick" helps also.

Does top-122 qualify for "Hollywood Bigwig" status, or might "Holloywood Mediumwig" still apply?

Surprised to see no mention here, in the comments or in a post, of the Simers piece on Ross Porter today. Did I just miss it?

I thought it was a nice piece. I never loved Ross's announcing as much as I liked his presence, like comfort food. But he certainly seems like a lovely, lovely man. Makes me sad that he hasn't followed the Dodgers since being fired.

88 - It was a great piece - I'm sorry I forgot to post about it.

Did the Dodgers actually resign Beimel, or the Plaschke just fill some column inches? I can't find any source that actually says he signed.

I look over here --------------------------------------------------------------------->
and am still perplexed by the exchange of a catcher with decent upside and a base salary(Navarro), for the same exact guy, all be it white(Hall), for $2.5 million more. That's one that backfired for Mr Colletti, in my opinion.

For a package deal of Hendrickson, Tomko, and Hall...someone please "insert name here" for who you think we could possibly get. I'd love to give them away, I think it would reduce my dependency on alcohol that seems to grow every time I see them in a Dodger uniform.

New post up top, by the way.

90 - No, he has not signed.

The column leaves out the odds against Beimel repeating his 2006 performance.

91 Probably some other players no one wants.

[81] jon weisman? dude, i know that guy! i guess it just speaks to the kind of social circles i run in.

52. Depends on who you're asking for, if you're asking for Crawford or Baldelli(players locked up cheap for 4-5 years)...it'll cost you an insane amount. Most Rays fans, though most of them are very dumb and think of baseball in 'fantasy baseball terms', think Rocco is the more likely to be traded because of "Injury concerns and blahity blah blahh." However, he's his own agent and is signed actually cheaper than Crawford is and appears to have a higher power ceiling than Crawford.

If you're talking about a Dukes or Gomes, it'll cost you....but not as much. Gomes would cost you probably a Broxton or Kuo, if it were me (and I've mirrored the Rays thoughts before). Dukes is probably the cheapest Rays player that you could get, but the Rays Front Office want to give him a look at 1B first before they trade him(unless a good deal comes along).