Keep hope alive!

Good news on both fronts!

Oh, now he's just doing this on purpose.

Hmmm Interesting.

Could it be that the only source for the done deal was Jerry Crasnick and his source was just- a source...

come get your man sabes!

As for Garciaparra, that seems like a different mindset from last season. IIRC, any talk of Nomar playing anywhere other than 1B was squashed early.

I'm kind of wanting Pierre to sign with the Dodgers if he grows back that mustache (post 110 in the other thread). I also wanted Scott Elarton last year because of his manly beard (he decided to shave it off before the season). Consequently, he had a bad year.

Maybe Jon saved us all. Ned read his piece and said maybe I should not do this.

I want to believe.

5 Sabes...You can do it.

You're not gonna let your "protege" (and I'm using that term loosely here) steal JP away from you.

Be a man. Step up. I dare you.

You know what they say:

It's always darkest...just before it goes completely dark.

8 - No, it was my desperate, barely coherent phone call to the Dodgers switchboard!

10
If you want wishes to come true, go sit in a corner and try not to think about Karl Dorrell.

If Garciaparra is being genuine, how do you NOT start him at third.

Isn't Loney > Betemit pretty roundly agreed upon?

13 If Juan Pierre somehow meant that the Bruins would can Karl, I would have only one reaction...

Where's my liliputian little Dodger batting helmet!?

Timline Nov. 20, 2006

noon- Pierre and Dodgers in talks
DT- AHHHHHHH

1500- Pierre agrees to 5/45
DT- #$%&

1800- Pierre and the Dodgers in talks
DT- hmmm

Right at this moment, Ned could field Greg Brady at third base and it wouldn't matter.

Speaking of money, I went to the bank today and I discovered I had $20,000 less than I thought I had saved up.

Turns out that I never deducted the money I spent on my car last year from my personal accounts.

11
Lol

I am sorry Chaminade, but now all my anger is directed at you and I hope UCLA crushes you without let up.

18 - Ouch.

20
Well, at least I figured out where it was pretty quickly and it wasn't like I had bounced any checks.

LA Times make it seem like it a done deal

http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-dodgers21nov21,0,2185664.story?coll=la-home-sports

okay, hope has been crushed.

from latimes...

Left-handed slap hitter, who has played in 162 games each of the last four seasons, agrees in principle to a five-year deal worth about $44 million.

Yes, Chaminade must pay for this.

"This man gets on base an awful lot," Colletti said of Pierre

huh......?

It's official.

The Mustache is a moron.

"This man gets on base an awful lot," Colletti said of Pierre "He gets 200 hits or more, is a great guy on a club".
I don't know whether I should laugh or cry.

This is the man who is running the Dodgers?

I wouldn't spend a lot of time on the spin, Nate. Its pretty meaningless at this point, the fundamental equivalent of Karl rove claiming two weeks before the election that republicans would hold congress.

Uggggghh!

25 and 27

My jaw just hit the ground!

"We lost 20 home runs with [J.D.] Drew, but there are people in the organization who feel there is more power with Wilson Betemit, Andre Ethier, maybe more with Russell Martin. Matt Kemp has a chance to rebound and hit 20."
I thought Kemp was going to start the season in the minors. No mention of LaRoche who is one of the best power hitters on the farm.

Ok, maybe Ned does not use metrics, but does he even know what OBP means?

"If we come up with a surplus of pitching, maybe we can move a pitcher to get a hitter," he said.

Yeah, and sign Juan Pierre. Make sure to do that too. Just make sure you LOCK THAT GUY UP TO A 45 MILLION DOLLAR DEAL.

Dios Mio.

Never mind all that: "Garciaparra's wife, former soccer star Mia Hamm, is pregnant with twins."

I'm guessing they're gonna be pretty athletic. :)

Talk about ading insult to injury: first Lofton loses his job, then this from the Times:

"Pierre, 29, is in many ways a younger version of 16-year veteran Kenny Lofton, who batted .301 with 32 stolen bases in his only Dodgers season."

Hmmmm...
He has plenty of money to spend even after committing more than $60 million to Pierre and Garciaparra.
Makes me wonder what the budget is.

I'm sick to my stomach. $45 million for a slap hitter who doesnt get on base?
We better buckle in because this is going to hurt.

28

its not spin, its just an outright lie!

So, do we just pretend that this thread doesn't exist?

And if so, do we wait for a new one?

And where the HECK are my slippers?

34
Twins! Luis Gonzalez scoffs! But maybe those twins will keep Vin happy.

I need a due date. I have to put it in my calendar. I did that yesterday with a friend's wife who told me a due date. I'll probably be wondering my Blackberry will be buzzing next month around 5 pm on December 17.

Miles OT:
Is anyone watching Giants-Jags now? Jax coach Jack del Rio is wearing a suit and tie. I can't remember the last time I saw I coach dress in anything fancier than a polo, or a sweater over a button-down shirt.

41 The league wouldn't let Mike Nolan and Del Rio wear suits last year.

The made NFL liscensed suits for the this year. Yay for our economic overlords!

34
I would also bring up my mom's theory about how children will look when they get older.

I predict that the Garciaparras will have fraternal twins, a boy and a girl, and the girl will look like Nomar and the boy will look Mia.

41- Jim Tressel was wearing a suit and tie under his jacket on Saturday.

I do not want to lose Laroche.

Save the centerfielder!
Save the world!

Make the hurting stop.

If you play in 162 games a year and have an OBA of .330, you are getting on base a lot, as in, the absolute number of times on base is high, higher than the number of times Kenny Lofton got on base this year even with his higher OBA thanks to Lofton missing a lot of games. I think that is all Colletti meant, and he is, technically, correct. [Smiley face]

pierres 2007 ZIPS as a cub...
663AB 299/.342/385 38BB 41K 45SB 18CS

49
Can't wait for that at the top of the lineup.

43 Imagine if they had a psychic-connection thing going on like the Sedin brothers -- I could see them kicking butt as the first MLS brother/sister combo on the LA Galaxy in 2026. ;)

42 - My GF and I agree that is hilarious.

I'm glad that Furcal was signed before this new character policy was put into place.

I picture one of the Garciaparra twins getting an ill-deserved red card from a stupid Uruguayan ref in the 2026 World Cup that will be played in Australia.

52 The league would not allow Peyton Manning to wear black hightops in honor of Unitas the week that he died.

The NFL is not flexible. In fact, you could say that they are "quite inflexible"

More on the NFL and suits:
http://www.philly.com/mld/philly/16042576.htm

With the kids right now. Does Colletti confirm the signing in the Times article?

So, do you think Jon shudders when he adds JP to the salary numbers on the sidebar?

Or does he give out a hearty Sideshow Bob laugh.

HAAHHAHAAAHHAAAHAAAA!

From the story:

"If we are able to come to terms with [Pierre] and he can be at the top of the order along with Raffy, that will help the ballclub," General Manager Ned Colletti said.

The paragraph after Henson quoted Colletti with "[he] gets on base an awful lot", he added "his critics, however, point out that he doesn't walk much".

I wouldn've gone with "his critics, however, point out that he does not, in fact, get on base an 'aweful lot'".

The Dodgers have basically re-acquired Cesar Izturis and put him in centerfield.

ESPN reports that the signing is just contingent on a physical.

Dave Revsine wouldn't lie to me, would he?

how much money do we actually have to work with? I personally have the dodgers payroll at around 90mil right now with 8.8 to pierre and 7.5 to nomar...

63 I have it at 79,235,000 pre-Pierre.

61- I wouldn't go that far. Pierre's worst is pretty much Cesar's best.

It astounds me how badly people make the counterarguments on issues like this. I humbly suggest that if an argument for Pierre must be made, simply take soriano's contract, divide by his win shares rinse and repeat. Otherwise, an alligator simply isn't a hamster.

from pierre's agent...

"It came down to a variety of factors," Peiper wrote. "He likes the players and really respects Grady [Little]. It's also a team that is going to win for several years. They have a good mix of veteran and young players and an owner that is committed to trying to win a World Series. Once you've won a championship like Juan has [with the Marlins], you want to do whatever you can to try to get back there."

In your face Gurnick!
Colletti indicated there probably is room on the same roster for Garciaparra and top first-base prospect James Loney.

"Obviously, [Loney] is a first baseman, but he also can play some outfield and he may play both this year," Colletti said. "Guys get banged up. He has a great shot to make our club. He'll play first base more than a year ago and also some time in the outfield."

From Pierre's agent
"It came down to a variety of factors," Peiper wrote. "He likes the players and really respects Grady [Little]. It's also a team that is going to win for several years. They have a good mix of veteran and young players and an owner that is committed to trying to win a World Series. Once you've won a championship like Juan has [with the Marlins], you want to do whatever you can to try to get back there."
Translation: The Dodgers offered Juan a 5 year deal for a substantial amount of money. We ran with it.

Or put another way, does soriano's contract justify Pierre's? That would be a possibly justifiable proposition.

Come on guys, let's have a little perspective. This is nowhere near as bad as the time we signed Juan Pierre to a 4 year, 44 million dollar contract.

Wait...Nevermind.

That's five years.

If Brad Penny had a hand in this we must trade him now!

Those 2003 Marlins have had a magic touch wherever they've gone:

Brad Penny
Alex Gonzalez
Luis Castillo
Josh Beckett
Jeff Conine
Mike Lowell
AJ Burnett

Two of them have gone on to win another World Series:

Juan Encarnacion and Braden Looper

I think we can take DePaul and Kentucky. Neither of these teams can play defense.

Just wait a sec:

"He's another guy with great qualities as a human being, like Nomar [Garciaparra]," Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti told the Associated Press.

In related news, the Dodgers sign former Czech president and human rights advocate Vaclav Havel to a six year, $72 million deal. According to Dodgers assitant GM, Kim Ng, Haval brings another big heart to the Dodgers lineup. He is expected to share time at third base with Wilson Betemit.

75 Nice. Really well done.

I don't know whats worse, this signing or Chris Berman's tie.

Seriously. The tie is that bad.

i wish we signed carlos beltran back in 2004.

The Dodgers have the high bid in to for the negotiating rights to Aung San Suu Kyi.

I wish we signed Vlad.

79- what position does she play?

I wish I had a better pair of dress shoes.

I wish I was in Maui.

Bob T:

I like Kyi, but she has trouble against power lefties and really doesn't have a position.

She did, however, put up a 6.93 RC/27 in the Burmese Fall League.

ka

for others that are keep track of the 2007 dodgers salaries, what do you have the payroll at right now?

I wish my essay for my ethnic studies class would finish itself

keeping

I wish we would sign Juan Pierre.

Wait a second...

83
I went to the Maui Classic once. It was before they put AC in. It was really hot. USC beat Memphis.

A few months later Brian Scalabrine came in to the library to research a paper. I helped him find his books, but he left his wallet behind. I chased him down as he is an easy guy to spot in a crowd.

Greg Brock will now cast further aspersions on my UCLA bona fides.

Oh, and, I was rooting for USC that day as well.

Make the bad man stop.

89 I cast no aspersions on your UCLA bona fides.

It is your improperly aligned hatred that I decry.

Ned Colletti thinks Pierre gets on base an awful lot.

Well, it's a pretty awful lot, I will say that much.

How many 100s did he have in his wallet?

73

Pierre had a great touch last yr

Last place touch

Among 160 ML qualifiers in 2006, Pierre ranked 130th in OBP. That's a bit more convincing than "doesn't walk much."

I think Mr. Scalabrine at the time would have been fortunate to have enough to pay the parking attendant.

That would not be a problem for him now.

If USC paid off their basketball players, they would likely have better basketball players.

But he doesn't strike out!

They at least got to the NCAA tournament back in those days. I do not think this era of suspect students with me first personalities will get them there.

85 Assuming Pierre gets nine million, $87,815,00

The LA Times reports that Furcal's power last year was "surprising," and that he might bat third.

I trust Ned Colletti now less than I trust Rick Honeycutt and Rich Donnelly combined.

100 - actually, the stronger statement is true:

My distrust for Colletti now is greater than the sum of my distrust of Honeycutt and Donnelly combined.

Oh, and, I was rooting for USC that day as well.
I wish Frank Robinson was the Dodgers manager

100-

That's hopefully not true, but if it is, that's the worst 1-2-3 in baseball. Except for maybe the Pirates.

Hey Guys!

Just wanted to let you know that I'm super excited to be a part of the Los Angeles Dodgers, and look forward to a meaningful and cordial relationship with the loyal and supportive rooters of Los Angeles.

Any thoughts?

Who bats number 2?

Juan Pierre..ROFLMAO!!. Since this is a big market club that can waste money as it sees fit, this kind of signing is typical for a Dodgers club trying to keep up. They have basically turned into the Oakland Raiders of MLB. Barry Bonds would have been a better signing.

Please do not feed the Padre troll.

105-

Garciaparra, I would think.

Ok I am a Raider fan and a Dodger fan and in no way are the Dodgers like the Raiders.

107

the troll in 106 or 104?

I think 104 is a joke.

104 But if it is the real Juan Pierre...

Perhaps we could guilt him into not signing?

FYI: Per 162 games, Pierre has averaged 4.7 baserunner kills.
Lofton has averaged more than 11.

I think this deal demonstrates one thing:

$9 million is the new $4 million.

I pray that this deal does not have a no-trade clause. I can understand this deal solely as a stop-gap. He could be helpful as a #2 hitter until a better one comes along. He provides some experienced help in center-field. He uh...uh... is mysteriously popular among other GMs, which could make him attractive trade bait after Matt Kemp, James Loney, Andre Ethier, Jason Repko, Rick Monday, Duke Snider, the Maytag repairman and Pliny the Elder render Pierre's services redundant.

I don't like this deal. Colletti's pursuit of great clubhouse guys has jumped the shark.

I'm not a big Pierre fan, as I've said earlier, and don't feel real excited about this signing, but nor do I have the "end of the world/jump off a bridge" feeling that many of you seem to have. I do wish I could discover that he's a lot better defensively than Lofton. The free agent market is thin this year, especially with power hitters. Since a lot of people here seemed to agree that power's a little overrated (though it would certainly be nice), anyway... the only way to get a real good power hitting outfielder would be to trade the farm for one, and I don't see that happening. So if this means the Dodgers are just going to focus on a top line starter and keep the kids intact, I'm not as depressed by it as I was. Not thrilled mind you, but copacetic.

As for the Padres, well, I don't see a lot being done to improve that team in the off season, and they could use it, too.

re 99

Assuming Pierre gets nine million, $87,815,00

hmm, so roughly close to 90mil as well. Thats interesting considering the latimes article states we still have "plenty" of money to spend, it seems that payroll will be closer to 115 then 100 (i think Jon insinuated that as well).

113 Kills, or skills? I kind of like the idea of baserunning kills, would make the game more exciting. Not as exciting as blurnsball, but exciting nonetheless.

Regarding a variety of subjects covered in several recent threads:

Good heavens.

conversation with my wife:

"Whoa, whoa!"

"What's up?"

"Well you see, there's this player that Dodgerthoughts always kids about, kinda makes fun of because he's fast, but that's about it. He steals bases, but he doesn't get on base all that often so it doesn't really matter, and he can only hit singles...and now the Dodgers are offering him $45 million dollars."

"Dodgerthoughts isn't going to be happy huh?"

117 - Kills.
Bill James thought that to be a more descriptive term than "assists."

Dodgerthoughts is not happy.

That would be correct.

Tom Goodwin must be wishing he'd been born about 10 years later.

The Linear Weights averages that I got from the old page on DodgerMath indicate that Pierre's basestealing has a net positive impact.

Based on his career averages, I got a net linear weight of 2.01 for Pierre, which is still better than Russell Martin last year.

I'm jumping in late here...

but does anyone know if this deal is official?

If so, this arguably might be one of the worst signings I've ever seen....

122- Ryan Church can take care of that

So, in theory, two Juan Pierre's are worth more annually than one Soriano or Bonds.

Maybe, maybe, maybe this is one of those Colletti head scrathing bluffs that only sets up another move? Hasn't he done this before? He's preparing us for Bonds right?

Yeah, is there any proof Juan Pierre isn't Tom Goodwin?

I'd rather have Pierre than Bonds.

hey, he had no errors last year!
(Insert comments from previous Kenny Lofton discussions about how you need to cover ground and touch the ball to make an error)

I'm sorry, he's not Tom Goodwin bad, that's just low! He's had a much better career than that, even if I see where the comparison comes from. Is he better than Kenny Landreux is what I'm wondering.

Juan Pierre made four more outs while we were having this conversation.

Zone Rating loved Pierre last year, giving him a .911 rating. Here's the career trend:
2000: .843
2001: .873
2002: .892
2003: .868
2004: .848
2005: .882
2006: .911
AVG: .877

Rate2 says slighly above average in Colorado, slightly below average in Florda, 101 last year, 99 career.

He'll run balls down a lot better than Lofton, but he'll still be run on like he's Mike Piazza.

130 - He makes outs in the offseason! What a guy!

(That was with his glove right?)

131 - Makes me wonder about park effects for ZR, like how Fenway's Monster ruins most attempts to get a true read on Manny's (bad) defense.

130 - By the way, Greg... Slappy McPutout gets my vote.

133 - Manny had a ZR of .694 this year

132 - Juan Pierre will never be accused of driving in runs with his glove.

134 - To clarify, Slappy McPutout is my vote whether we're choosing a nickname for Juan Pierre or providing punch lines to dirty Irish jokes.

135 - See?

137 - Come on, that's pretty drastic; the closest to that ineptitude in left field is Josh Willingham at .790. Carlos Lee is at .815, at third worst.

The other way around is his failure average is .306, versus Willingham's .790 and Lee's .185.

138 - Correction

The other way around is his failure average is .306, versus Willingham's .210 and Lee's .185.

I was arguing that ZR is affected by the player's home park; Manny's rating proves as much.

Manny is an indifferent fielder at best, but that ZR is like Greg Luzinski or Pete Incaviglia on sedatives.

140 - actually, and Rate2 show this too, Manny was good defensively his first year in Boston, but he dropped off a lot.

Year: Zone/Rate2
2001: .877/102
2002: .779/89
2003: .789/91

you get the idea. This year his defense was especially bad. An 86 rate2 to go with that .694 ZR.

all stats for left field

For instance, here's Pierre's and Soriano's Runs Created over the past four years:

Soriano: 117, 93, 99, 125
Pierre: 89, 102, 74, 87

I mean, it's not like this isn't doable.

from the LA Times:
The Dodgers already have an excellent leadoff batter in shortstop Rafael Furcal. Pierre, who has hit primarily in the leadoff spot throughout his career, would bat second or leadoff, with Furcal moving to the No. 2 or 3 spot. Furcal displayed surprising power last season, hitting 15 home runs to go with 37 stolen bases.

So would we see
Lineup
1. Pierre
2. Furcal
3. Nomar
4. Kent
5. Ethier
6. Martin
7. Betemit
8. Loney

144 - But when you consider how many outs Pierre used to reach those totals...
RC/27 outs:
Soriano: 6.29, 5.49, 5.58, 6.85 (in '06)
Pierre: 4.7, 5.43, 3.89, 4.42

145-

What bothers me so much is:

1) it's just an awful, awful contract
2) the LAST thing we need is another hitter with no power
3) it eats up an outfield slot that could have just gone to Kemp or to Lofton for one more year
4) this money could have gone to sign a pitcher.

I mean, once we were out of the Soriano race we might as well have just used this money on both Schmidt AND Zito and just let Kemp or whoever else play centerfield.

I think I just threw up in my mouth.

145-

I don't mind Furcal at #2...I just thought the whole point of a lead off guy was to get on base...can you imagine those innings when we have 8-9-1 coming up? Those are going to be a nightmare.

146 - Look, it's not a good argument, but there are no good arguments for this. But in any event, you can still use your numbers for what is the best argument, which is that if you stipulate that Soriano is worth $138 million (a bit of circular logic that itself collapses with a puff of breath, but go with it), then someone who is about two-thirds the player is getting about one-third the money.

Now, I'm aware of issues like marginal utility and replacement value, and those would play out. I'm just saying that here's the starting point and the enterprising Pierre fan will take note, and it will probably lead to a better conversation than incessant use of the word "stathead."

In looking at the contract, I think the years are much more problematic than the yearly sum. Sure 9 mil is ton for Slappy McPutout, but if the payroll is set to be $110-115, there's still a lot more money for pitching. Of course, there's no confirmation either way as to what the payroll will be. The years, on the other hand, are indefensible.

147

I believe there is a de facto "no vomit" rule around here now.

My lineup

1. Furcal ss
2. Martin c
3. Nomar 1b
4. Burrell lf
5. Kent 2b
6. Ethier rf (won't be traded)
7. Betemit
Pierre/pitcher (depending on the pitcher)

What I expect the lineup to look like
1. Pierre cf
2. Furcal ss
3. Nomar 1b
4. big hitter lf/rf
5. Kent 2b
6. Ethier lf/rf
7. Martin c
8. Betemit 3b

if you stipulate that Soriano is worth $138 million ... then someone who is about two-thirds the player is getting about one-third the money.
If that's the defense, I can get behind it.

Pierre/pitcher (depending on the pitcher)

That got an actual LOL out of me.

I sense a Barry Bonds signing soon...gah.

153 -- and that's what I'm saying. It was the same thing with DePodesta. It's less about him than the quality of his enemies.

68 "In your face Gurnick!"

I wrote Gurnick today. Amazingly, he wrote back an hour later (is this normal?) Here's the exchange:

-------

Sent: Mon 11/20/2006 7:57 PM
To: Gurnick, Ken
Subject: Mailbag

firstname_lastinitial : Paul B.
hometown : Santa Barbara

question : In your piece on re-signing Nomar Garciaparra, you referred to Loney's " chronic knee problems"? What chronic knee problems? Did you make that up, or get confused? And what makes you think Loney is "expendable"? Is that your opinion, or that of the Dodgers' front office? They've already said Nomar is willing to play 3rd and is expected to be rested frequently as well. And Loney too could play elsewhere than 1st.

----------

loney had knee surgery in high school, but it hasn't prevented him from playing first base every day. colletti indicated today that there's room on the roster for both garciaparra and loney. i believe loney is expendable if garciaparra is the everyday first baseman, or if that's what it takes to get a top hitter or pitcher, because that would be more valuable than having him off come off the bench.

MLB.com: Where Baseball is Always On

See? Slappy McPutout is clearly the people's choice. This is a grassroots movement, a groundswell. Practically a mandate.

Now, how about we refer to all statistically inclined commenters here as "Stathead O'Sabr?"

I eagerly await the World Series when Slappy McPutout bunts toward Slappy McBluelips.

156

so it went from loney having 1 knee surgery in high school to having chronic knee problems now.

lol, way to go gurnick.

I have it on good authority that Ned has signed Pierre so that he can make him the centerpiece of a deal with the D-Rays to get Crawford.

Other throw-ins will include Billingsley, Kuo, Laroche, Kemp, Loney, Ethier and Furcal.

(yes, I know you can't trade free agent signings that quickly------------unfortunately)

Darren Collison might be faster than Juan Pierre. Can he play cf?

If Loney goes so Nomar can play everyday first base then Ned is even more out of his mind than I thought.

I'm not against the Nomar signing but let's face it, the guy isn't going to play 162 games...Loney is very valuable to us.

160
i hope that authority isn't ken gurnick, cause his authority ain't good

158 - Molly Ringwold plays a corner infield position for an American League team?

10 reasons not to hate this signing:

1. Pierre has a career .350 OBA, not too shabby
2. He costs one third of what the Cubs paid for Soriano
3. He steals a ton of bases, which is very valuable in a lineup devoid of power
4. His liability of getting thrown out stealing a lot is less harmful in a lineup devoid of power
5. He is a veteran in his prime (he's only 29)
6. He walks more than he strikes out
7. Signing him doesn't automatically prevent the Dodgers from winning the World Series
8. Signing him doesn't automatically prevent Matt Kemp from playing for the Dodgers
9. Did I mention he is a veteran in his prime who plays a premium defensive position and has decent offensive prowess and costs less than $9m per year?
10. The Dodgers scored a lot of runs with Lofton and a similarly powerless lineup last year. No one has made the argument that a similar approach, plugging in Pierre for Lofton, won't work in 2007.

Chaminade is clearly paying for the sins of The Mustache.

As well they should.

165-

you were being facetious, correct?

165 He is also not a member of the Khmer Rouge.

To my knowledge.

167 Not facetious. Overly optimistic, maybe.

164 - Over at BBTF, A-Rod's nickname is Slappy McBluelips.

Just because the Cubs are idiots does not make this signing excusable. They are the Cubs!!

This is the kind of thing I don't understand. .350 is nothing, particularly when adjusted for playing however many years he played in Colorado. I mean, the value might be there, as pseudo-demonstrated, but that's not where it is.

165-

Why would you even compare Pierre to Soriano?

That's like if we signed Shea Hillenbrand to a 50 mill deal and going "he makes a fraction of what Arod makes!"

It makes no sense...sure he makes a fraction of what Soriano makes, but Soriano produces...Pierre just isn't a good ballplayer. We overpaid by about 4 years and 40 million dollars.

if pierre can repeat his 2003 season of:

311/366/378 55bb 65SB 20CS 4.4 WARP

for like, 5 straight seasons, he will worth his contract.

170 - Thank you.

I was pretty sure Molly Ringwold was still in the Independent League.

Where is Rancho Santa Margarita?

172 - Pierre, in three seasons in Florida - which is a pitcher's park - compiled an OBP of .352.
Just FYI...

176 - http://maps.google.com/maps?oi=map&q=Rancho+Santa+Margarita,+CA

176

southeast orange county.

In Orange County.

It was not really a good moment when I was out having a drink with a neighbor and talking about possibly applying for a job in his office and the "Jerry Crasnick reports" thing showed up on the crawl at the bottom of the tv behind the bar and I said a very bad word out loud, not quite realizing it was out loud.

This best captures my reaction, and to me is really a very thoughtful comment on why this is a drag: "And now it seems like whatever the case, nope, were going to do it just like everyone else does it."

This was funny too: "Average is the new above average."

What's happening in RSM?

I'm going to go watch Facing the Giants. I hear it's an uplifting story. Seems appropriate. Anyone seen it?

182 James Keefe, one of the new UCLA basketball players, is from RSM.

Great...Juan Pierre has made the whole site italicized.

The guy is bad news.

184

my high school.

Juan Pierre is the new Ryan Church.

162 - If that happens, we will utter the words that should never be uttered:

"You should have listened to Plaschke."

184- exactly. Keefe is going to be a good one. He's a very good rebounder. He needs to improve his post game.

173

It's useful to compare Pierre to Soriano because they are in the same free agent market and they will both be playing CF next year.

Soriano gets on base less, strikes out a lot more, walks a tiny bit more, and hits about 40 HRs per year more than Pierre, and costs $9m more per year. That means that annually, under this market's calculus, adding 40 HRs to your lineup costs a premium of $9 million. That is about $250k per HR. Ask yourself: is that rational?

My point is, signing Pierre is a very Moneyball move to make. HRs are way overvalued in this marketplace. If Colletti can put together a team that scores a lot of runs without hitting a lot of HRs, theoretically he should have a team that will outperform its payroll. He did it last year, and the pieces are there to do it again now. And if maybe, just maybe, the Dodgers can coax some HRs on the cheap from the new kids, they might have a World Series team next year.

189

keefes not bad. hes a good complimentary player but his lack of offensive game is going to limit his abilitites. he rebounds and plays defense well though.

165 reminds me of Cliff Clavin's Final Jeopardy answer.

i so want to believe 190 that i will believe it.

I think I've got it all figured out.....Ned's just setting things up to offer arb to Drew, have him accept, and stay a Dodger--after Boras bombs getting Drew a better deal elsewhere. Har. (Might make as much sense as some other things.)

From Gurnick's Q&A on dodgers.com==

Q:: Do the Dodgers get draft-choice compensation for J.D. Drew if he signs with another team?

A: That depends on several factors. If he signs with another club by Dec. 1, the Dodgers would receive that club's first-round pick and a sandwich pick. If he is still unsigned by Dec. 1, the Dodgers must offer him salary arbitration to be eligible to receive compensation. But if they offer arbitration, Drew could accept it by Dec. 7 and revert back to the Dodgers at a salary to be determined by arbitrators.

If the Dodgers have already replaced him in the lineup and on the payroll, they probably would not take the chance of offering him arbitration and would not be eligible to receive compensation. If arbitration is offered and Drew rejects it, the Dodgers would receive compensation from the club that signs him.

190 - Sori has an arm too, though

190 - I'm with you all the way to the point where you suggest that Colletti hasn't overvalued Pierre. I'm all for not overpaying home runs beyond their worth - that's why I (like others) think Soriano got too rich a deal, at least in cumulative value.

But how does Pierre efficiently help the Dodgers on the grind-it-out level, when he is his overall offensive and defensive contributions are barely above replacement value. Even granting that someone like Pierre is the answer, why get this expensive a version?

191- he doesn't need to be great. That's going to be Kevin Love's job. He's a perfect fit for Howland's system. His offensive game is better than Mata's when he first came to UCLA. This year's team is very deep.

Luc Richard is an absolute beast.

Is Eduardo Najera Mexican?

but most people, whether they've read Moneyball or not, feel Soriano was overpaid.

It's not that in contrast with the Soriano deal Pierre isn't a good value, but that if $12 million a year can almost get you Schmidt or Zito or Dunn on an extension, or Garciaparra, then there has to be cheaper ways to get you the little that Pierre brings to the table.

194 He'll offer arbitration.

Of course, after today...

Never mind, found it, Najera is from Chihuahua.

hmm, I used $12 million to make the point that if $3 million is the difference between Pierre and a much better FA, get the better FA.

Damn I knew an answer to a question from Bob, but he beat me to it.

197
Keefe has a better offensive game than Mata period haha, not just comparing them as freshmen.

It's not that in contrast with the Soriano deal Pierre isn't a good value, but that if $12 million a year can almost get you Schmidt or Zito or Dunn on an extension, or Garciaparra, then there has to be cheaper ways to get you the little that Pierre brings to the table.

Which is to say, the Pierre signing does not look to overcome its oppurtunity cost.

Although it is better than redoing "The Gates" twice.

But how does Pierre efficiently help the Dodgers on the grind-it-out level, when he is his overall offensive and defensive contributions are barely above replacement value. Even granting that someone like Pierre is the answer, why get this expensive a version?

Exactly. I don't defend the Soriano signing...but it's like they bought an 80 million dollar yacht for 136...sure they overpaid, but at least they still have an 80 million dollar yacht.

At the end of the day we just paid 45 million dollars for an average at best player. That is completely inexcusable. Couldn't we have just signed Lofton for one more year to bridge the gap to Kemp?

These are the times I honestly wonder why some fans aren't real GM's....there isn't a single one of us on this board that would make this deal because of its absurdity...so why the heck would Colletti?

I appreciate Mata more because I think gangly looking guys from Southeast L.A. make for nicer stories than more sculpted guys from South Orange County.

Mata is Weevil.
Keefe is Logan.

196 I don't think Pierre is expensive at all. It's extremely cheap when looked at in comparison to the current free agent marketplace and the amount of money now in the game. In fact, I thought Pierre would go for a lot more considering he's a CFer. I wouldn't be surprised if he got a no-trade clause, because this deal seems low to me.

At $9m per, Pierre doesn't have to carry the team. He doesn't have to be the answer. He just has to be consistently productive. He'll steal his 50-60 bases, score 100 runs, play CF better than Lofton, and play every day. And, the Dodgers will still have room for an ace like Zito.

Looks like Mata has the size of his shorts under control this year.

These are the times I honestly wonder why some fans aren't real GMs...
Malcolm Gladwell ("Blink," "The Tipping Point") made the case that GMs often out-think themselves - used Isiah Thomas as an example.
I'll try to find the interview...

190 Conversly, you can compare him to Frank Catalanotto (not a perfect comparison, but work with me here). They have similar career batting averages (.297-.303) but Catalonotto has a better on base percentage, and a far better slugging percentage. Even if you assumed that Pierre could do the same thing (which he never possibly could), you'd be paying $157,854 dollars per stolen base (this ignores the fact that his 65% stolen base percentage makes his steals useless). If $250K per home run is a bad value, $157,000 per stolen base from a player that's much better than the actual Juan Pierre certainly isn't worth it.

good poing. Lofton at 1-year for $5 million sounds so sane right now. Use the other $40 for 3 years of Schmidt. Let Kemp fill out the remaining 4 years of Pierre's contract.

as in your point sounds very good, poing, I guess.

Couldn't we have just signed Lofton for one more year to bridge the gap to Kemp?

Sure we could have, but this signing would seem to indicate that Ned doesn't believe Kemp is the CF of the future. What I wonder is why we couldn't have signed Lofton for one year to bridge the gap to signing a free agent Vernon Wells/Andruw Jones next year.

I don't think Pierre is expensive at all. It's extremely cheap when looked at in comparison to the current free agent marketplace and the amount of money now in the game. In fact, I thought Pierre would go for a lot more considering he's a CFer. I wouldn't be surprised if he got a no-trade clause, because this deal seems low to me.

You've gotta be kidding me. Look at Pierre's numbers...to say he's anything but VASTLY overpaid at this point is just naive.

Look at the numbers...we could just let Repko patrol CF next year for, what, 400K? I'd MUCH rather have Repko put up BETTER numbers for NINE million dollars less and use that money on something useful.

While I'll root for Pierre, it's still a fact that we paid 9 million a year for a guy who can't hit or get on base...not very savvy.

199 I say we wait until Schmidt and Zito sign contracts. The way this market is going I wouldnt be surprised to see one of them take home more than FAR ABOVE $12m.

213
I always say that there is a disturbing lack of onomatopoeia at Dodger Thoughts.

Many of Ned's moves (especially Lugo)just make it seem like he has no plan whatsoever (whether that is true or not). He just gets pieces and then hopes they fit.

211 - Juan Pierre's stolen base rate is 74 percent.

58-78 last year, 325-441 career

We are apparently now at the point of hoping that Colletti's stupidity won't do serious damage. Or that the market is so crazy that 45 million won't be enough. Hard to believe there's a bigger fool out there.

Here we go:
http://gladwell.typepad.com/gladwellcom/2006/03/nba_heuristics.html
*Let's say I'm so dumb about basketball that all I know is that the best college programs in the country are Duke and UConn, and so as a GM my rule is only draft and/or trade for the first and second best players, in any given year, from those two schools.
So I fire all my scouts. I disband my front office, and basically say that I cede my basketball judgment to Jim Calhoun and Mike K.
What's my team? It's some combination of Elton Brand, Emeka Okafor, Ben Gordon, Luol Deng, Shane Battier, Mike Dunleavy, Rip Hamilton, Corey Maggette, Jay Williams, Caron Butler, Donyell Marshall and Grant Hill - which is a really wonderful team. Now, of course, in the real world I couldn't get all those people, because lots of them were really high draft picks.
But let's say I got Brand in a trade, after Chicago soured on him, and I was lucky enough to be in the lottery for Okafor. Maggette was a 13; Hamilton and Deng were 7s; and Butler was a 10—so at least some of them are doable, particularly since in off-years for Duke and UConn I can trade down and stockpile picks. Battier I wine and dine in the free agent market, because who wants to be stuck in Memphis? Ditto for Gordon, who, it seems, Chicago is thinking of moving anyway.
Is that the best team in the league? No. It is better than the Knicks? Absolutely.
The point is that clinging to a very simple rule of thumb here — that doesn't require knowing much about basketball — can leave you looking pretty smart.*

At $9m per, Pierre doesn't have to carry the team?

Isn't this the same salary as Garciaparra, Lowe, and Penny?

As crazy as the market may seem, Nomar signed for a reasonable amount, and Schmidt and Zito aren't asking for THAT much more than Pierre.

Curious what the stats say. How much better is Pierre than Mark DeRosa or whoever the Cubbies signed for a few million less that still seemed overpriced?

I don't take this as Colletti being anti-Kemp. Colletti is one of Kemp's biggest boosters. He was eager to promote him, obviously satisfied with his debut, and said nothing more about his slump than the guy just needs more time. Just today, Colletti suggested that Kemp might add 20 more HR to the lineup before the 2007 season ends.

220 - I'm beginning to believe it's the market.
A BPro writer recently advised to ignore the numbers coming out of this offseason, because they'd seem crazy.

222 - The Juan Pierre signing probably added millions to the Zito and Schmidt contracts.

215 Repko can't be counted on to play anywhere close to 162 games, or even to produce after the month of May.

Kemp will probably end up a corner outfielder anyway.

Gary Matthews is highly sought after and will be overpaid at Soriano proportions.

Anyone else?

172 -- The year that Pierre OBPed .332 at Coors (2002), it had a park factor (according to ESPN) of 1.44. But all of that comes out in the wash. I think you have to start from the premise that .350 isn't much to write home about in the first place anyway. Ethier can OBP .350 with his eyes closed.

I minimized the concept of marginal utility earlier, but it really comes into play when comparing a player like Pierre to a player like Soriano. Using WARP (since Pierre is a 5 and Soriano is a 10 and its just easy to hypothesize around), the first couple of WARP points are not worth very much because they're more replaceable and probably not outcome determinative. After that, you likely start to see some value as you get into the 3, 4, 5 category. But going from your eighth to tenth win is far more valuable than going from your fourth to your fifth win. So even if you take both players contracts at face value, you can't make the broad conclusion that I earlier made (2/3 player at 1/3 price) without determining marginal values and a whole host of other things. That value might get unlocked upon closer inspection, but in most cases (and s choir is doing an excellent job, so present company excluded) what you generally get is people making up stuff then assigning their own value to it.

216-

I say we wait until Schmidt and Zito sign contracts. The way this market is going I wouldnt be surprised to see one of them take home more than FAR ABOVE $12m.

All the more reason not to spend 9 mill per on Pierre.

Seriously...9 mill on Pierre or say, 14 on Schmidt? I'll take the Schmidt deal because he actually helps you win games.

222
Yeah, and the Mark DeRosa contract was stupid to me in the first place. Career back up has a career year in a free agent year.

but Jon, if we HADN'T just signed Pierre to that contract, and offered $12 per to one of those two pitchers?

224 - I've been doing the same thing. Again, that's not the point. We don't know the final market totals and we don't know the payroll, so we can't evaluate the Pierre signing in that respect. But if Pierre is so medicore that we know that cheaper alternatives are available for a smaller commitment, then we can go from there.

226-

okay, you still didn't answer the burning question though...

how do you justify paying a guy 9 mill per year when he's league average AT BEST?

Seriously.

What's next? Shea Hillenbrand for 48 mill?

165 How is $9 million 1/3rd of $17 million? 208 And he is deservedly extremely cheap compared to this year's free agent signings. He's not Soriano. He's definitely not Aramis Ramirez. He's more like Julio Lugo than he is like any of the big-time free agents. The Cubs are throwing around money like it was Necco wafers, but they didn't offer Pierre $9 million per.

If Pierre is worth $9 million, then Aramis Ramirez should've held out for two more weeks. He could've gotten $20 million. You'd have to pay Zito $20 million, and Jason Schmidt $22 million if Pierre is the new face of the $9 million player. Hell, we should've picked up Gagne's option if this is the going rate. He'll probably get paid more than $10 million per.

By the way, let me try this:

UCLA football scouting report?

BYU has accepted a bid to the Las Vegas Bowl.

230. According to Gammons, the Dodgers have been in talks with Schmidt so perhaps they are offering a contract to one of them.

Did it work?

I think you have to start from the premise that .350 isn't much to write home about in the first place anyway

.350 is above average. when you consider that average is the new above average, .350 is the new 9 million dollar mark.

It didn't work. We're still italicized.

231 - Never said it was the point.
Look, I'm no fan of this signing. But we've got to get past the "He'll be overpaid!" argument, because we don't know where that line is, at least not yet.

But blaming it on the "market" is just as circular, as saying that "average is the new above-average." Whose fault is that? The concept of efficient markets is hard enough to prove with a completely liquid, thousands of issues market like NYSE, much less a rickety, jerryrigged cartel like MLB.

211 Catalanotto doesn't play a premium defensive position. Somebody has to patrol CF for LA, and it sure ain't gonna be Kemp, Repko or anyone else you can find on the market for less than $9m per.

211- Cat is a corner outfielder/DH. I think you have to compare Pierre's contract to those of the other center fielders on the market. We'll see what kind of contract Matthews and Roberts get.

231-

Yeah the problem is just Pierre's contract in general.

If we paid Schmidt say 14 mill...well we could discuss over and over if we overpaid or not, but at the end of the day we signed an elite pitcher.

The reason I'm so amped up on this is I can't even begin to wrap my head around why ANY team would give Pierre more than a couple mill a year...it would be like voluntarily buying a Civic for 500 grand.

I'm not italicized.

I would dare say that if you've lost dzzrtRatt on an acquisition, you've lost the center. Pending ToyCannon's two cents ...

Me neither.

I really don't think Ned pulled $9m out of his hat. The Giants had to have been offering big money too. Either that or Sabean played Ned big time.

But I suppose the counter to this argument is that you could have not signed the guy in the first place.

45/138 = .3260869

232. The justification is the market. Colletti had to pay that to get an outfielder he wanted. The money shouldnt be the question as much as why Colletti wanted Pierre badly enough to pay this year's market price for him.

Somebody has to patrol CF for LA, and it sure ain't gonna be Kemp, Repko or anyone else you can find on the market for less than $9m per.

Uh...Lofton?

You seem to be blind to the fact that Pierre doesn't have good numbers. It's not the fact that we spent 9 million that people are getting upset, it's why was it spent on a guy who isn't good?

I'd have no problem spending 9 mill if it was on a CF like Jim Edmonds...I'm not big on him but that wouldn't upset me...signing a guy who plays replacement level baseball has absolutely no logic to it.

233 $44 million is 1/3 of $136 million

Toy Cannon...The new Walter Cronkite.

But he likes Eckstein!

Dodger Stadium supresses doubles and triples, that cannot help Juan. I have heard from a lot of Cubs and Marlin fans that Juan has the worst arm they have seen in center.

250. Edmonds had already re-signed with the Cards, making Pierre's price go up that much more.

Molly Ringwold is currently starring in the Broadway Across America production of Sweet Charity. I'm sure she's done other good work, but she's wrong for the part, can't sing that well, and is not a very good dancer. The rest of the cast, however, is pretty amazing, and there are some incredible Fosse-inspired dance numbers, the best I have seen. They are worth the admission if you know that's what you're going for.

If there were free agent signings for the stage, Molly Ringwold would be the Juan Pierre of Broadway musicals.

249-

I don't think the justification is the market. If we signed a GREAT player and overpaid then yes, it's because of the market.

I don't care what the market is...if you're going to pay someone 9 million bucks they better be a DECENT player....Pierre's numbers could be put up by Lofton for ONE year at a fraction of the cost.

I just can't for the life of me figure out why Ned would even consider this deal when he could have just brought Lofton back for a lot less money and BETTER production.

241 - A Repko-Lofton platoon for the first half and Kemp-Lofton for the second half will give it to you with a small dropoff in defense but better offense (Lofton against righties, Repko/Kemp against lefties) at about 2/3 the annual cost and 13 percent the total commitment. And I say that as no huge fan at all of Repko or Lofton. I'm sure better options are available.

250 Lofton is at the end of his career. He's also injured a lot. Having him play CF means having Repko or Kemp play there half the time. Doesn't having stability in CF mean something?

Roberts will probably get a similar deal, and he'll likely play only 120 games.

Andrew, I wanted to write a comment on your great right up at True Blue, but blognation won't let me do it.

is it a coincidence that pierres walk rate last year was basically the lowest of his career while playing for dusty baker?

Doesn't having stability in CF mean something?

No.

239/249 - I agree.

255 - There have been some wonderfully literate comments in today's threads, and this is just the latest. And I really appreciate that the discussion has been so civil. That part has been a pleasure.

258 - I see 3 years/18 million for Roberts as a low estimate. I feel good about 3 years though

Wait - is there any guarantee Lofton will post better numbers than Pierre (or a league-average CF) next year? Because, at the end of last season, he looked awful.

Having him play CF means having Repko or Kemp play there half the time. Doesn't having stability in CF mean something?

Yeah but you're forgetting the simple fact that Kemp will put up far better numbers than Pierre would....and for roughly 8.7 million dollars less.

I'm all about signing guys...just spend the cash on guys who HELP...Pierre is almost detrimental to this team right now.

251 Lofton is not an ideal guy to platoon. He hits well against most lefties. Not to mention he wouldn't take that too well.

234 There was nowhere else for BYU to go. The Las Vegas Bowl is what you get when you win the Mountain West Conference, provided you don't make it to the BCS bowls. I'd like to see them play Oregon. Or UCLA, if that Mormon QB is back playing for them. In Provo, Olsen is hated more than you hate ND, by many people, since he spurned BYU.

Lofton, post-ASB: 306/369/424/793.
Shows what I know...

221 How can you forget Ray Allen and Carlos Boozer?

256. Well, here's the question you should be asking then. Why did Ned feel that Pierre was worth what a CF in this year's market was going to bring? Obviously Ned feels that he's going to be able to count on a healthy Pierre playing everyday more than a nearly 40 year old Kenny Lofton...Unfortunately, the market in this off season has dictated that a healthy Kenny Lofton is costing 9 mil a year.

Mind you, I think this deal is terrible but I'm just trying to figure out the mindset behind it.

Oooh, wait, I was confused. I thought we'd signed the great Belgian filmmaker Jean-Pierre (Jeunet), of Delicatessen and Amelie fame. So, never mind. This sucks.

But seriously, I'm going to wait until Spring Training to officially judge the Dodgers off season and chances for next year... I'll just grouse quietly to myself on occasion and bite my nails in worry.

----

Poor Molly, isn't it "Ringwald," though? At least to give her some slack. ;-)

I realize contract length is important, but budgets are set year to year. Remember when everyone thought Colletti overpaid in signing Furcal for $13 million? It was justified by the fact that our commitment would only be three years. Right now, if Furcal was a FA, he'd easily pull in $15-$16 mil for four years. That's what's happened to the market due to this new TV contract and labor agreement.

245 I like that. I'm a battleground state. I'm Ohio!

My bias is, I'm not that into speed, unless it comes with power. Speed added to power makes a player really dangerous. Power alone is dangerous, too. Speed alone is rarely that dangerous. It'll win you a game here and there, but it's not worth $9 million/year. And that's about all Pierre can brag about -- he can run fast.

Lofton vs. LHP: 214/275/274/549.
That, that is not good.

Jon - Maybe the Juan Pierre signing has everyone wanting to make an emphatic point, but I'm seeing everything in italics. (OS X.4 w/ Safari). Could you do a favor and throw an ending italics tag at the end of your entry, if that would solve the problem? Thanks..

the simple fact that Kemp will put up far better numbers than Pierre would

I wish this were a simple fact. If it were, you could call the NL West right now. Besides, Kemp will likely play RF.

Also, I think it borders on irrational panic to say that a guy who OBPs .350 and steals 50-60 bases and plays an average CF is detrimental to the team.

I realize that last part is controversial, but he's not going to sieve runs out there at quite the clip that Lofton did.

271
It is like we woke up in the City of Lost Children, with this nightmare.

262 That's very nice of you. I enjoy contributing to this site more than any other. I'm going to add "wonderfully literate" to my CV, in Roger Ebert style quotes.

273 You're right, that's not so good.

Right now, here's the lineup with the 2006 PA numbers, and some estimates for 2007:

Pierre 750 PA/740 PA
Furcal 736 PA/725 PA
Nomar 523 PA/501 PA
Kent 473 PA/501 PA
Ethier 441 PA/650 PA
Martin 468 PA/550 PA
Betemit 412 PA/550 PA
Loney 111 PA/500 PA

Taking last year's OBP stats, the OBP for the lineup, weighed with the 2006 PA numbers, is .356. With my 2007 estimates, it's .354 if they repeat their 2006 OBP.

See guys, here's where not being a Kenny Lofton hater comes in handy:

2006 RC/27

Lofton: 5.14
Pierre: 4.42

Your premise is faulty.

274 - I put another end-italic in, but I proofed the post again and it didn't need one, and I'm not seeing italics.

277 All I know is, if I opened my hotel room door and it was Molly Ringwald on the other side in fishnet stockings, I'd pretend I was a cop.

281 Jon, whatever you did cured the problem.

281 The italics are gone now.

Juan Pierre, however, remains...

I hate that I misspelled Molly Ringwald's name, because I loved her in her teen movies. I should have looked it up, but I trusted the prior DT comments to get it right. Never again!

272 Speed also helps on defense. Not too many good, slow, CFers. If Pierre was an amazing defensive outfielder, you could view this signing as a way to strengthen the defense, with maybe a later move getting a big bat. Unfortunately, I'm not sure it can be spun that way.

Sooo... starting pitching discussion anyone? Where are we in the Barry Zito sweepstakes?

Juan Pierre talking points at the presser to introduce him:

-He's a veteran presence in the lineup
-He's won a championship
-His speed is very disruptive and along with Furcal, can allow them to be more aggressive
-He had 200 hits last year
-He covers a lot of ground in center
-He stole 58 bases and you can't just find that anywhere
-He'll be a great presence