Yeah, I've been hanging out with my students too much.

If ever there is a contest for least popular Dodger within the history of DT (going back to 2002), Scott Erickson might win. He'd get my vote.

THen again, so is the NRI to Joe Mays.

Let the young guys play and win together and then move them up more or less together.

Tomko can have the fifth spot. If Repko has a good spring, then let him have right. But come June 1, please clean up your mess Ned.

PJ
Fur-kel
Garciaparra
Kent
LuGo
Ethier/Betemit
Betemit/Either
Martin

Which makes Mays this year's Lance Carter.

I liked Grady's comments in his chat today, overall (except for being worriedly in love with Gonzo, but I doubt that will last long). But otherwise I like what he had to say.

---???

Hee-Seop Choi
Juan Pierre
Milton Bradley
Beach Balls
Olmedo Saenz
Dodger Dogs
Paul DePodesta
J.D. Drew
Rick Monday
Jason Grabowski
Ramon Martinez
Joe Beimel
Ned Colletti
Mark Hendrickson
Jim Tracy
Wade-Giles vs. Pinyin transliteration systems

WWSH

2-7-07
DanBudreika (Haymarket, VA): Dan, While I can appreciate all of your work on base running, I do find it very deep and well researched, how much significance do you think it actually has on the game itself as a whole? After reading some of your articles I sometimes have myself wondering if the metrics you have derived will really make a big difference in the game itself..

Dan Fox: Your observation in that last sentence is exactly why I started down the road of putting these metrics together. As with fielding, I think if you asked a range of people inside and outside the game how much difference baserunning makes in the big picture, your answers would fall all over the spectrum from "hardly at all" to 10 games or more in the standings.

It turns out that in the aggregate really good baserunners:

a) don't garner enough opportunities in a single season in specific situations such as the chance to advance from first to third on a single and
b) don't take enough extra bases relative to average baserunners to separate themselves from the pack and therefore contribute a large number of additional runs.

So if the 5 best baserunners in baseball advance from first to third on a single 42% of the time (as they did from 2000-2005) and the five worst do so 22% of the time, then if those runners each get 40 opportunities per season, the elite baserunner gets to third 8 more times a season than the very worst runner. And then when you consider that getting to third raises your probability of scoring but doesn't guarantee it (in other words you only pick up incremental advantages with each advancement), you can see how quickly the advantage dissipates.

As far as whether the metrics will really make a difference in the game itself, my hope is that it helps us to put baserunning in perspective where we can confidently say that an elite baserunner is probably worth an additional 5 to 8 runs per season over an average runner and then factor that into our evaluations. So then when looking at a player we can say, for example, that 70% of his value lies in his offense, 20% in his defense, and 10% in his baserunning.

Being a good baserunner is also related in many cases to being a smart player or a good defender and so metrics like this can also help us tease out some of those relationships. There's still a long way to go but I'm glad the topic is getting some traction as evidenced by Bill James additional work in his Handbook this season.
--------------------------------------------

TGisriel (Baltimore): I found your comment that "Older teams outperform younger ones" particularly interesting in light of what I perceive to be a tendency at BP to argue for the acquisition of younger unproven by talented players rather than established players. Some of this is based upon the different cost of the two of course. Do you perceive this tendency as well?

Dan Fox: I agree that BP falls more on the side of young talent.

What I'm seeing in my research thus far is that there is a sweet spot right at or above the normalized weighted mean age of the team (a formula that looks at pitcher innings and hitter plate appearances and league age) and both before and after that there is a drop off. Teams that go very young perform poorly as do those that go really old (generally speaking with the Yankees of 2003-2006 being an exception).

"Burdette hit 12 home runs, including two off Sandy Koufax. The Braves star especially enjoyed swinging at the Coliseum, where the Dodgers played from 1958-61. The reconfigured football stadium featured a left-field pole about 250 feet from home plate, along with a screen more than 40 feet high.

Burdette hit half of his career homers at the Coliseum, and lofted a fly ball over the screen for his only grand slam as part of two-homer, five-RBI game against the Dodgers in 1958. "

Not bad for a pitcher. I wonder if any other pitchers ever hit two home runs off of Koufax?

1. Furcal or Pierre
2. Pierre or Furcal
3. Nomar
4. Kent
5. Gonzalez
6. Martin
7. ?
8. ?

http://tinyurl.com/2lwarc

Here's how it begins:

She prepared for the 950-mile drive from Houston with the discipline of someone who had flown 13 days in space. The steel mallet, folding knife and rubber tube were all catalogued on a handwritten list, police say. She had maps, she had bus schedules and she had a disguise. Thinking like an astronaut, she brought diapers to avoid bathroom stops.

The world is just bizarre.

One would be hard-pressed to convince me that Pierre is more valuable than Repko.

i agree that laroche is a longer shot than kemp to earn a starting nod by virtue of his not having any experience--in fact, i think a lot of collittle's [if i may] comments are aimed at lighting a fire under betemit.

whew. thank god we're close to spring training. i'm starting to lose it . . .

Who said he didn't...?

1990 Reds
CL *Randy Myers 2.08 ERA 86.7 IP 190 ERA+
RP Rob Dibble 1.74 ERA 98.0 IP 226 ERA+
RP Tim Layana 3.49 ERA 80.0 IP 113 ERA+
RP *Norm Charlton 2.85 ERA 53.7 IP 138 ERA+ (only used his relief appearances, he had 2.68 ERA in 100 IP as a starter)
RP *Tim Birtsas 3.86 ERA 51.3 IP 102 ERA+

2.66 ERA 369.3 IP 148 ERA+

2003 Dodgers
CL Eric Gagne 1.20 ERA 82.3 IP 335 ERA+
RP Paul Quantrill 1.75 ERA 77.3 IP 231 ERA+
RP *Tom Martin 3.53 ERA 51.0 IP 114 ERA+
RP Guillermo Mota 1.97 ERA 105.0 IP 204 ERA+
RP Paul Shuey 3.00 ERA 69.0 IP 134 ERA+

2.15 ERA 384.7 IP 187 ERA+

The Dodgers crush them, though the numbers would be closer if Charlton stayed in the bullpen. Then, Wilson Alverez had a 1.49 ERA in 24.1 IP in the pen before joining the rotation in 2003, so it kind of evens out. The 2003 team featured the best relief performance of all time, and two others that were great (Mota's 105 IP with a sub 2 ERA amazing). That was such a heartbreaking year.

Bob's got his...

Or did trainers send the Koufax koncoction to the same stinkin' place where Dr. Hook's Snake Oil Miracle Ointment, Dr. Felix's Celebrated Liver Pills, castor oil, milk of magnesia, and similiar goodies reside?

http://farmauthority.dcsportsnet.com/?p=898

Highway, or in the city?

Cheating on Ms. Harkleroad already??

Astronaut
Crazy
Wears diapers
Understands the value of rubber tubing
Doesn't want to stop every hour, unlike most gals
Committed to relationships
Owns a BB gun

The blog "market" also caters to a wide diversity of tastes and choices, something that the now uniformly terrible sports media does not do.

wow .... and Grudz' SLG% was 60 points worse than anyone else's in history

"He gives us some depth and another guy to compete for a spot on the team. He's a veteran who throws strikes and knows how to change speeds."

Quick, someone get Ned to call Wayne and see if he'll take Joe Mays back in exchange for Adam Dunn. Tell Wayne that Mays fits the Meadows criteria and is a former 17 game winning All-Star to boot. Add that he didn't really get a fair shot with the Reds last year.

Sounds like the perfect Krvisky deal to me...

ERA ERA IP
1 Jose Lima 5.26 1567.2
2 Jamey Wright 5.14 1461.2
3 Scott Elarton 5.13 1013
4 Joe Mays 5.05 997
5 Eric Milton 5.01 1527.1

HITS/9 IP H/9 IP IP
1 Brian Moehler 10.58 1146.1
2 Glendon Rusch 10.49 1375
3 LaTroy Hawkins 10.26 1016.2
4 Jose Lima 10.24 1567.2
5 Joe Mays 10.20 997

STRIKEOUTS/9 IP SO/9 IP IP
1 Joe Mays 4.62 997
2 Terry Mulholland 4.63 2575.2
3 Scott Erickson 4.77 2360.2
4 Jamey Wright 4.81 1461.2
5 Brian Moehler 4.88 1146.1

Fewest WINS W IP
1 Elmer Dessens 46 1056.2
2 Joe Mays 48 997
T3 Scott Elarton 54 1013
T3 LaTroy Hawkins 54 1016.2
T5 Jason Johnson 55 1327.2

Lowest single season slugging % by Dodger since 1969:

http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/M6SX

The good people of Phoenix won't allow that!

Also, you can tell this is an important match because Landon Donovan is completely invisible.

I want Klinsmann!

The Glory of 2007.

Hmmm...She looks weightlesstastic!

Sha la la la! Sha la la la!

Pero el juego de futbol es vivo.

El juego de baloncesto entre los Osos de UCLA y los Troyanos de USC va a empezar a las siete y media en la noche.

o a las diez y media on la costa este

But Lima Time is no longer vivo. He got pulled after the GoJG singled, leaving two on, and one out. Still scoreless in the bottom of the ninth. Gameday says Arnie Munoz is in to face Javier Valentin, and Yadier Molina and Ruben Gotay, if necessary.

Yeah, though I haven't gotten out much lately to witness all the spirit. But people really get into the rivalry here.

UCLA has played terrible basketball and is only down a few buckets. They should be down by 10.

And once there's less than a minute to go, the clock stops after every made field goal.

Fixed that.

Our domination of the minor league affiliate known as CONCACAF continues...

And for the record: I'm calling this one a neutral site. I tried to adjust the settings on my TV so that the stands didn't look so green, but I ended up with a blue pitch as well. Someone needs to tell the American supporters to wear red.

We got Kindergarten Cop at our game.

The folks at US Soccer are woefully ignorant of demographics I think.

We just don't pack the house for footie.

I will defer to any chemists in the audience.

I just can't win sometimes.

Unless the foul is deemed to be flagrant.

Seriously, enough with the making of the long shots.

31-5

Re: The US soccer victory today, despite the US Soccer fed. saying it won't affect it one way or the other, I wonder if they're any closer to hiring Bradley officially or if they're still flirting with foreign coaches.

Anyone know if they're gonna re-run the game on TV again this week?

Sha la la la!

The Trojans need more depth to beat teams like UCLA. UCLA can really wear down a team.

http://sports.espn.go.com/golf/news/story?id=2757727

1) UCLA
2) Washington State
3) Stanford
4) USC
5) Oregon
6) Arizona
7) Cal
8) Washington
9) Oregon State
10) Arizona State

I just wear glasses for driving.

Or for respect.

This was my favorite comment (pardon the partially-censored French):

"UNC will open up about 12 cans of whoopa$$ on those b!tch-boy Dukie stiffs."

Except mine likes Notre Dame.

Although for some reason my mind immediately went to the Salute Your Shorts! episode where the nerdy guy and his date have the exact same inhaler and figure out the odds of it happening on their calculator watches instead.

ROTN is never far from my thoughts

How did Karl Dorrell "earn" a 1 year contract extension?

Follow the "Baseball Analysts" link on the sidebar here to check it out.

Surely whatever rule affects this expires fairly soon? If so, unless JP has a no-trade clause (surely not), Ned could take care of the problem that way if Kemp blossoms.