Well, gee, if Shane Victorino can do it...

So, who do Logan White and the braintrust add to that slew of prospects this year? Is there anyone who looks like the kind of guy he likes to pick?

Picking up from the previous thread Nate Silver at BP just did his breakdown on 2nd base prospects according to Pecota. They are high on Abreu as he crosses the 50 point threshold and is the 6th best 2nd prospect according to Pecota. They agree with Greg Brock that Dewitt blows as he only garnered a 9 and was at the bottom of the barrel.
As I said before I think to much weight was put on the small sample size of his AA meltdown at the end of the year. I'm optimisitc because Deric from HQ likes him and I've always found Deric better then Prospectus as he combines scouting with current day statistical analysis and he's still high on Dewitt. After reading him for the last 5 years and seeing how often he is right I'll line up behind him on DeWitt. JMO

2 -- Well, I said a few days ago, in another thread, that I have a gut feeling that the Dodgers' dearth of speedy leadoff hitter/Shane Victorino types (that Steve adores with unbridled passion) on the farm might make the Dodgers interested in Long Beach high school shortstop Ryan Dent. He is described as having a similar profile to Rafael Furcal. Since where we have our first pick -- 20th overall -- is too late to pick up any of the top power hitter prospects, if we don't go with Dent or someone like him it is safe to assume Logan White will take a high school pitcher. There are a lot of good high school pitchers in the up-coming draft, and ones of high quality are bound to still be available at #20.

It's amazing how far the Padres farm system has fallen. They traded away too much talent too quickly and now the cupboard's bare, except for a few players already helping at the major league level. If there's anything that clearly makes Arizona and LA more dangerous even this year over the Padres, it's how deep the youth goes.

Good to know, Toy - I just like the idea that the Dodgers have two possibilities to choose from to replace Kent... next year even.

I still feel like you can never have too many good pitchers stocked in the minors, so going that way in the first round might be the way to go, especially if the top power hitters are indeed gone by #20.

2 - Way too early to know about specific names, but I wouldn't be surprised to see White target some position players early. The last two years he has went for pitching early and often. He has taken pitchers with his first two picks the last two years (though obviously we didn't get one of those). Imagine if we had managed to sign Hochevar?

The Nationals are predicted by some to be the worst team in baseball this year. And they have the lowest ranked farm system. Ouch.

8 We'll trade them Penny and a good prospect for Zimmerman! (Yeah, right.)

3 -- Silver's article has PECOTA calling Houston's Conrad Brooks the third best 2B prospect in the game. Brooks is SIX years older than DeWitt. When your Honeymoon Machine (gratuitous reference to a Steve McQueen movie) is spitting out the name of a 26-year-old as the third best prospect at any position, you should know it is time to go back to the drawing board.

Does anyone know how we stand with players reaching the point of being Rule 5 draft eligible, and how that relates to the 40 man roster?

4. It's amazing how little talent San Diego has to show for their rebuilding-era a couple years back. Peavey is awesome, obviously, but other than him they have(had) only Barfield and Greene as good regulars. Trading for Gonzalez helps a lot, but I don't think they'll be happy about the Barfield trade.

I would love to see the Dodgers draft a SoCal HS player. But I have to believe that they'll go for a couple HS pitchers to help stock up in the lower minors since this draft class is supposed to have good depth in that area. Other than pitching (you can never have too many good pitching prospects) I think the Dodgers system could use some fast, atheletic outfielders - I think the major league team is pretty well set for infielders for the future.

10
I pay scant attention to Pecota and prospects, just thought I'd share the info.
Sanchez101 made a great post over at minorleaguebaseball regarding how Pecota should be viewed.

Speaking of SoCal players, I wonder how Nic Akins (is that his name) is shaping up so far - the kid from LA. Seems to have some potential... I guess he's so young it'll be awhile before we know.

10. No projection system is perfect, it seems silly to "go back to the drawing board" because it favors Brooks Conrad. Besides, how many good 2B have prospect-hounds overlooked? (Dan Uggla, Chase Utley, Robinson Cano, Orlando Hudson just to name a few)

Also, PECOTA values the players over the next 5 years, not their entire career. So it makes sense that Conrad's 27-31 years will be more valuable than DeWitt's 21-25 years.

Really, Silver seems to think Tony Abreu is the 5th best 2B prospect, because he doesn't trust PECOTA's assessment of Wilmer Pino. I actually think Abreu is underrated. He's should be an above average 2B offensively and defensively. Orlando Hudson with less-D?

Stock at USC won't be available now for a few years but you have to love a kid who skips his senior year of HS, jumps directly to a program like USC, becomes the starting catcher and then moves to the pitching mound and saves the game in his 1st action.

14 -- Akins deserves to be mentioned, because given that he is a shortstop, signing him could make us less inclined to take a shortstop in the first round of the draft.

12 -- Preston Mattingley is bound to move to the outfield sooner or later, so we might as well count him as a "fast, athletic outfielder." Our infield of the future is not exactly set in my mind. Our middle infield prospects (like Abreu, DeWitt, DeJesus and Hu) lack the base-stealing speed that I think Colletti is always going to demand we have at the top of the order, whether we like it or not, and that type of player nearly always comes in the form of a shortstop or a center fielder.

17 And how about your fellow Canadian, Kyle Orr? I wonder when he'll start being in the mix. Can he play any other position besides first, assuming that becomes Loney's job for awhile...?

18
According to Baseball America Orr is supposed to be able to play the outfield.

17
Would be nice if Mattingly could make the move to CF but everything I read is a corner outfield. Any reason why?

17. Do you think Mattingley can keep his speed as he ages?

I agree with your sentiment about Colletti's need for speed. Really, I think (in an ideal world) Kemp, Loney, and LaRoche provide or middle-of-the-order run producers while Hu and Abreu, or DeJesus or DeWitt hit at the bottom of the order. Martin, I think would fit in fine almost anywhere. That leaves us with two, fast, atheletic outfielders to bat at the top of the lineup. That way, the Dodgers have great D up the middle at C, SS, and 2B, and a fast atheletic outfield. Combined with Dodgers Stadium, that would give us a great edge in developing and maintiaing major league pitchers while also having an effective, or better, offense.

Really, though, in next years draft, they'll take the best player. That seems to be Logan White's staregy. Who knows what the Dodgers will need 3-5 years down the line?

20. Probably because he hasn't played in the OF professionally or in HS. He showed good speed in the GCL, but scouts don't think he has much of an arm. Hopefully he plays LF this year and impresses enough to have a chance to move to CF. Matt Kemp and Jason Repko made similar moves, Repko in fact was also a supplemental pick, started as a SS, but moved to RF and then CF as he progressed (slowly) up the ladder.

18 -- Way too early to picture Orr in our future. I think he is going to develop slow, if he develops at all. He is not used to facing the quality competition that most American high schoolers in sunny states are accustomed to.

20,21 -- I read one scouting assessment of Mattingly after the season that included this sentence: "With his plus speed, the Dodgers believe that Mattingly can become a major league centerfielder." I don't know who in the organization this guy was was talking to, but his statement sounds like he is giving the Dodgers' opinion, not his own.

I am not sure if Mattingley will be ready for low A this year or will be held back and play in Ogden, but if he does play in Ogden, and assuming he will move up one level a year, that puts Mattingly on schedule to play in the majors the season after the expiration of Pierre's contract. So it would be really ideal if he can be a center fielder in the big leagues.

For the record, I don't think DeWitt bl.ws. I'm just not bullish on his future as a quality everyday player. And I agree that PECOTA is not the best tool in the world to evaluate prospects. But at some point DeWitt has to produce, and he clearly has not. And his defense stinks. And he doesn't have the pop to play third. And Abreu is better.

As I said yesterday, he could completely turn it around and prove me (and others) wrong.

What are the chances that Pierre finishes this contract with the Dodgers, really? When was the last Dodger FA contract 3+ years in length that wasn't eventually traded? Lowe has a chance, I guess. Probably, Pierre will fall apart, either performance-wise or physically, and the Dodgers send a big check and Pierre to some other team, perhaps as soon as next winter.

Preston Mattingly will be 68 when Juan Pierre's contract expires.

25 The last Dodger with a 3+ year contract to finish out his contract with us happened at the end of last year. It was Dreifort with his 5 year deal. Remember?

Reading the DePo interview reminded me of something I've wondered about for a while: does anyone know the deal with his 'non-disclosure' agreement regarding his time with the Dodgers?

I've never heard of anything like that in baseball. That's the kind of thing you see in litigation settlements, but buying out a GM's contract? It really makes me wonder what the Dodgers are afraid of. DePo doesn't seem like the kind of guy who would unload on the McCourts in the media.

If anyone has any insight into this issue, I'd appreciate it.

24 -- At some point DeWitt has to produce the numbers, sure, but when Loney was DeWitt's age he too was being written off because he wasn't putting up the numbers people wanted to see. But scouts said of Loney, "Don't worry, the production will come," and I trusted that. Now the analogy can be criticized because Loney had freak injuries as an excuse for sub-par numbers, but lets not forget that DeWitt hit 18 homers this year playing on a team for which Loney hit 7.

24. Dewitt has produced above average offense for his league's more often than not. In fact, the first time he's actually struggled was last year in AA, as a 20-year-old. I wouldn't say he's impressed, but it's simply not true to say that he hasn't produced.

FWIW, DeWitt (who Logan White, back when he was drafted, compared to James Loney) has hit for more power than Loney did - and he'll play a more demanding position than first.

Dewitt falls into the group of prospects like Chase Utley or Brenden Harris: guys with live bats, but questions about whether their thirdbasemen or secondbasemen. If he can handle 2B, his solid LH bat will give him a major league career. He doesn't have to be that good defensively either, look at Todd Walker. Now, I'm not sure if you would consider Dewitt to be much of a prospect if his future is as a platoon infielder, or some other part-time role. I guess the point is that his defensive progress is more important than his offense.

27 -- Finally, precedent brings a glimmer of hope.

Let's be honest, we have 810 games to go and then the Pierre tenure as a Dodger will be over. (162 X 5 =810)

27. I think i've blocked Dreifort out of my memory. But, the point still stands, long free agent deals (especiall the sillier ones) rarely AREN'T traded.

The problem with expecting Pierre to be traded is that it's unlikely he'll underperform relative to Colletti's expectations. I mean, what is he good at that could possibly decline so much that Ned would want to get rid of him?

The cure for Juan Pierre Talk:
Nora, the Piano-Playing Cat!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TZ860P4iTaM&eurl=

32. No, history shows that that almost certainly won't happen. Even if Pierre proves to be as brittle as Dreifort and is untradable, that means that Pierre will be on the DL for extended periods. Remember though, that Dreiforts deal was untradeable in part becuase the Dodgers didn't have the cash to pay another team to take him (because of all the other big, bad "Sherriff" deals). Becuase of the multiple minimum salaried players we should have over the next couple years, that shouldn't be a problem.

This is hope for those of us that don't like Pierre. Sure, he'll be a waste of payroll, and sure, he'll spend too much time on the roster. But, he'll only be here for 2-4 years. I guess that counts as a silver-lining.

Exactly, since he's already terrible, how can he get worse than terrible?

I read the DePo interview. The culture of baseball must be really quite something.

I'm picturing DePodesta in the Padres clubhouse, where the team is preparing for a game. He sees the team's new manager across the room and shouts, "Hey, Blackie!"

It just feels like a Phil Hartman SNL sketch, doesn't it?

Ha- I knew Branyan was a DePo find.

http://tinyurl.com/2w7jqz
This game not only cost us the division and homefield vs. StL, but cost me $300 on my NL West Dodger bet. Sweet revenge for Google Boy!

Jack Cust will be the 2007 DePo avenger:

.293/.467/.549 (AAA Portland)
441 AB, 30 HR, 143 BB, 124 K

SD signed him 12/05 so construct your own conspiracy theory.

34. Im thinking Pierre looses some speed and can't steal 50 bases a season, or he looses that last bit of batspeed and quickly becomes a .250 hitter. It won't take much, he's on the verge of uselessness already. Plenty of speedy guys fall of the cliff in their early 30's. If you want to assume that Colletti's an idiot and would allow a sub-.300 OBP at the top of the order, be my guest. I'm not so willing to assume stupidity in people who are smarter, and get paid more, than I do.

ok let me rephrase, 810 games to go that Pierre is on contract with the dodgers. For reasons others have said. No way were going to unload a weak armed, light hitting, no speed anymore CF for 8 million a year on contract. Coletti brought the guy in to play every day so get used to it.

Im thinking Pierre looses some speed and can't steal 50 bases a season

Meh, he'll just increase his attempts until he reaches 50 successes.

PS: Just because Colletti is (1) a GM, and (2) paid more than you, doesn't mean he's smarter. It probably just means he "knows a guy"

Wow, the Nationals are bringing Dmitri Young and Tony Batista to camp, to compete for the cranky old guy roster slot with Tony Womack I guess.

Thoughts on Beimel:

Now that we won the arbitration hearing, I think he's trade bait, part of a package to get us a hitter. Beimel and Penny plus Loney/Kemp/Ethier and Broxton gets us Manny, right?

43 Maybe they'll get sent down to Columbus, and I'll get to see some bona fide major leaguers!

FYI Jon:

Oscar Robles is off the 40 man roster next time you are updating that part of your site. I'm positive you are aware of this.

I am one of many loyal readers who want to thank you for this forum and the work you put into it. Go Blue.

I'm looking at DeWitt's EQA's, OBP, and SLG%'s from the last three years, and outside a nice 32 PA in Vero Beach, I'm not seeing what you guys are seeing. I'm seeing .224 and .248 EQA's and .283 and .268 OBP's and SLG's in the .430's-450's.

Maybe our definitions of "production" are just different. Maybe his park factors and Leagues suppress a ton of offense. I dunno, whatever.

Also, I don't want to seem like I'm hating on DeWitt, so I'll stop with the conversation. Again, just friendly disagreements.

I'd like to apologize for and/or explain comment 38. It was an attempt to poke fun at what seemed to be a nickname that would be "Michael Scott" inappropriate in nearly every social context outside, apparently, professional sports.

In re-re-reading it, it appears the comment does not accomplish what I'd hoped. Jon, feel free to delete it. My apologies to anyone who may have been offended.

28 My hunch is that there is less there than what we expect. Look, they decided to go a different direction and they did. Now there could more to it in terms of the finances and the direction of the Dodgers that he has to keep confidential like what Ned has to keep confidential from his time with the Giants.

I think it is more things like how the McCourt's financed the Dodgers and things like that that he has to keep quiet about rather than anything really damaging from how is termination occurred.

So, is Joe Mays in camp yet?

44 - Players who accept arbitration can not be traded until June or something like that. Also, I don't think the Sox are going to trade Manny. With Manny they are juggernauts, the evil empire too. Without Manny, they are a solid offensive team and a high risk, high reward rotation.

52

We really can't move Beimel now? I am unaware of this provision of arbitration eligible players. I thought if you signed a player you can trade them. Under the old collective bargaining agreement if you didn't offer them arbitration then you couldn't sign them until after May 1st I think. I could be wrong. I've been wrong a lot in my life.

Sorry if this has been discussed already, but BP just produced this list:

Top 5 2007 AL Third Basemen, by PECOTA Projected VORP

Player, Team, EqA, VORP

Alex Rodriguez, NYA, .319, 48.0
Alex Gordon, KCA, .301, 34.2
Troy Glaus, TOR, .302, 31.6
Adrian Beltre, SEA, .284, 25.4
Eric Chavez, OAK, .293, 24.0

No surprise with ARod, but I was suprised to see Beltre that high. For VORP, his defense must be the main reason, but they also project his hitting to improve.

I don't have a point to make here. Just thought it was interesting.

Canuck and Sanchez can verify but I think VB and Jacksonville are both pitcher friendly leagues. Which leaves me wondering why D Young wasn't able to just knock the snot out of Vegas. Willing to bet he destroys Vegas this year if he's stays within the Dodger organization.

I had totally put Cory Dunlap out of my mind until I read my BA prospect book and was shocked to see what a season he put up. I knew he was walking a ton but how did I miss the power upgrade.

If Pat Burrel was on our team and playing LF I'd feel a lot more comfortable with our team. A nice scenario would be for Betemit to start out hot, for Laroche to start out hot, for Wes Helms to run into Luis Gonzalez on a freak play on the bases and knock both of them out for the year. Then we can deal Betemit for Burrel, put LaRoche at 3b, Burrel in LF and presto we be on our way to our 1st playoff victory in 18 years. It all seems so simple.

Minorleagueball.com has as a forcast of the rest of Loney's career up. Sickel's doesn't think he will ever hit more than 26 home runs, but his average will be high enough that he will still be a league average first baseman.

56
Olerud never hit more than 24 HRs in a season, yet managed a career .295/.398/.465 line with .309 EQA and 129 OPS+.

That would be great for Loney.

VORP doesn't consider defense. There are fifteen 3Bs with a higher projected VORP than Beltre, this year; they're just mostly in the NL.

There are fifteen 3Bs with a higher projected VORP than Beltre

Are any of them named "Betamit" or "LaRoche"...?

None named Betemit, but there does seem to be a LaRoche; he goes to eleven.

Betemit is projected the 39th VORPiest 3B. Willy Ayber is projected the 25th.

With Robles and Gio off the roster, I need a new most hated Dodger. I'll be accepting resumes through next week.

55. The Florida State League and the Southern League are both 'pitchers' leagues. The Southern League in particular has been tough for at least the last few years. That's the league situation.

The park factors for Vero Beach and Jacksonville are relative to league, though, not all the minor leagues. VB is an extreme hitters park for the FSL. You'll see people claiming that so-and-so's numbers in Vero Beach are suspect, but few of our prospects have had much trouble moving from VB to AA. Also odd is that people use VB against our hitter, but never in favor of our pitchers - shouldn't Scott Elbert get credit for pitching there if it works against DeWitt? Whatever

Jacksonville is a pitchers park for the Southern League - pretty much as tough a place to hit as you can find (Myrtle Beach in the Braves system is probably the absolute worst place to hit, though). So it is suprising that Delwyn Young struggled in AAA considering his performance in AA. Maybe the move to the OF distracted him, perhaps seeing all his teamates promoted ahead of him hurt his motivation (see: Guzman, Joel), maybe he couldn't handle AAA-quality breaking pitches or control, or maybe he just had a bad year. Unfortunatley corner OF with little defensive value who don't hit aren't prospects.

Betemit is projected the 39th VORPiest 3B

In other words, Betemit is the RP...

56. Adrian Gonzalez hit 24 HR's last year and had a .300 eqa - the best hitter on a playoff team. We should hope that Loney follows Gonzalez's career path, he has so far.

57 - Loney doesn't take a walk like Olerud though. Sickels forcasts him to have one year at 356/398/553/951, which is stellar. He gets injured fairly often though, and has some off years.

64- Actually, you've got to go down to 71 on the list before you get to an honest to Ch-i replacement level player (ignoring defense).

64 -- Deviancy has been defined down

66 General question: does Sickels just make up what teams people end up on or does he have some completely mind blowing vision of the composition of every mlb club for the next 10 years?

I guess I know the answer to this question but its fun to speculate.

69 - I bet he doesn't just make things up, but I doubt he has some master plan that he refers to. He probably looks at something like: Tex leaves the Rangers and they need a first basemen so they trade for Loney at the end of his arbitration years. The Angels are far enough down the line that he is just having fun.

Loney's career line would be something like 294/347/481/828. That is pretty mediocre for a first baseman. Loney didn't walk much in Vegas last year, but I bet he can do better than that.

Unless Loney plays long enough that his declining years drag down his numbers a great deal, I could seem his career batting average being over .300. Loney doesn't walk like Olerud, but I see him being a better hitter for average. Moderate power for a first baseman and old Glove defense are the two things that make people compare Loney to Olerud, and I don't have a problem with that.

72 -- Gold Glove, not "old Glove." Geesh.

On another board, someone who listened to Dodger minor league executive Chris Haydock on a podcast says that Kershaw is going to be starting in low A, not high A like some people thought he might. But Haydock says Kershaw is expected to get promoted to San Bernardino sometime in 2007. Haydock also said he thinks Greg Miller's injury is completely behind him and he expects Miller's future to be as a starter with electric stuff.

Is VORPiest sort of like being the "ginchiest"?

74 Whatever happened to Kershaw has to stay in Florida? Did we void that after Vero folded?

The Dodgers took care of the Reds, 4 games to 1 in the first round of the Simulation Madness tournament at DodgerSims. The Dodgers won the first three games, then Billingsley got shelled in game 4, but the Dodgers rebounded with a game 5 victory from Randy Wolf. The Dodgers will next face their 2006 playoff nemisis the NY Mets in the 2nd round. The NL has had a number of upsets as the #11 (Atl), #12 (Fla) and #14 (Pit) seeds have advanced. The Dodgers are the only remaining NL West team. The Mets were down 3 games to 1 to the Rockies before pulling off a few miraculous wins and taking the series 4-3. vr, Xei

62 You must think the Juan Pierre bandwagon is too full. Unless you have sort of affection for large hairy men, might I recommend Hendrickson? Overrated, overpaid, and a Ned Colletti pet, he might fit the bill nicely.

I have other suggestions if that doesn't work for you.

You have other suggestions? I can't imagine who.

I think Marty should be edgy and make Russell Martin his most hated Dodger.

Marty's middle name is "Iconoclast" isn't it?

Those future Loney numbers are pretty ridiculous, but I like how Sickels gives a washed-up Loney one year with the Orioles at the end of his career.

New post up top.

Has no one commented yet on the Choo Freeman signing? Move over Juan Pierre!

http://tinyurl.com/2rqr5h

75- That's your voice? Now I regret building you that opera house!

79 Oh sure. Bombko, Gonzo, Beimel, Betemit, Penny, Stan Conte, the aforementioned Pierre... There's plenty of hate-able Dodgers.

Come on, though. Pierre and Hendrickson are easily a cut above those other guys. Gonzalez at least earned his reputation, even if he can't live up to it. Everybody knows that Bombko sucks. Betemit suffers from everybody thinking he's Lugo. Penny is hate-able, I agree, but really to the extent of the other two? Beimel is an irrelevant middle reliever. As long as they don't go around getting paid millions pretending to be "closers," who cares about them? Meanwhile, Pierre and Hendrickson are terrible baseball players who owe their entire careers to being at two of the positions (CF and LHP) where the Peter Principle happens to be MLB's organizing principle.

No, I'd say this is easily a two-man race.