Granted, Tomko has looked better this Spring (for what it's worth) and I'm not too worried, but anyone want to take bets on how long this lasts? I give it 'til May, when Tomko is either traded or demoted.

If he really is pitching better right now, I hope we get some use out of him before an inevitable move happens anyway. Bills will be starting within 2-3 months, I'm wagering.

I think many teams would be satisfied to have Brett Tomko as their number five starter. That the Dodgers had and perhaps still have options that are better but for a variety of reasons can't take advantage of those options... well, that's life as a Dodger fan, isn't it?

1 And underdog has it right, of course. This won't last until the all-star break. This team as currently constituted will look dramatically different in just two months time.

3

Are you giving us your personal guarantee on that?

4 My man, I've been so wrong about so many things in my time on this blog, it's hard to keep track. Let's go Sean! I mean, who would trust me with a prediction?

I agree that the team we have now will be drastically different from the one at the end of the season. For one thing, Colletti has explicitly said that. And I don't think some of those guys will be able to be kept in the minors for long.

Here's my shot at an August 31 roster:

Martin
Lieberthal
Nomar or Gonzalez (other one on the DL)
Kent
Furcal
LaRoche
Pierre
Ethier
Loney
Kemp
Abreu
Martinez
Saenz
Anderson

Lowe
Penny
Wolf
Billingsley
Kuo
Schmidt
Miller
Meloan
Broxton
Tsao
Saito

I think I'm beginning to understand how this works. The youngsters need to "go out and earn it," and don't get the job even when they earn it, and veterans just get the job, despite how garbage they look, or how bad they've been in the past.

I'm sure it won't be like this in June, but it shouldn't be like this in April. Booo.

Tomko is a streaky pitcher. He has steaks of being putrid but also can go several starts in a row being nearly unhitable. He averages out to be a bit below average generally. But wow, look what he did in 2004.

Who is "the man" (the "I" is a major league manager)?

"I really loved the man; we just didn't have enough at-bats for him."

http://tinyurl.com/yq5mrj

Yeah, let's hope for the good Tomko for the early season and then cut bait before Mr. Hyde shows up.

5

And now you're out there dispensing misinformation to the youth of this nation. I'm proud of you, Bruin.

8 - If you look at his components though, his 2004 is entirely based on a low BABIP. Pitching is such a toss up, a guy like Millwood pitches exactly the same for three years, twice he has an ERA over 4.5, once his ERA is under 3. At least this will keep innings off of the young arms, and it isn't Hendrickson. Tomko could be decent in a role that demands nothing.

Pitching is supposed to carry this team, but Schimdt and Penny have looked really bad in spring training and Tomko is Tomko. We are probably due for a rough April.

We are probably due for a rough April.

Are you saying I picked the wrong month to go off methadone?

12 Looking at baseball-reference, the biggest difference between '04 Tomko and '05 Tomko is the percentage of runs allowed that were earned. The pre-2004 Tomko gave up a lot more homeruns, but had similar K:BB.

9 Bernie Williams?

Just as Tomko is Tomko, Spring Training is Spring Training. I hope those two guys look better when the season starts but assume they will. I'm more worried about our hitting; that may take a month or two to settle.

9 is a Choi to behold.

I thought Schmidt is known for starting off slow?

9 Hee Sop Choi, Hee Sop Choi!

Now to tackle that inane rumor.(at SI-Boston Globe). If Florida floated it because they will never pay Willis, a balsy GM would say I don't need pitching depth now-but if you were talking one for one. This should kill the deal. If not, we could handle it.

So, with Furcal hurt, Bombko in the rotation, and all the slow starters we have, I guess we should just start watching the Dodgers towards the end of May?

The inability of this front office to maximize the resources available to it is getting really frustrating.

What does Loney have to do to win a spot on the team? To what degree does Billingsley have to outpitch Tomko to get a chance? How many more years are we going to be subjected to this garbage about the prospects not being ready yet? (It's going to be the third season, if you include Depo's last year, where we've been told to wait a little longer on the prospects.) If we are playing mediocre veterans still by the All-Star break, I'm going to uselessly express my rage on an internet message board. I'll do it!

22
Plus, we have to wait for the overrated veterans to get hurt.

whispering... I am talking about you Gonzo.

Bit of encouraging news from Gurnick:
Loney had trouble with a Grady Sizemore triple hit over his head, but Little seems willing to live with him as a novice outfielder.

"I have no doubt he'll drive in more runs than he lets in," Little said.

Apparently Grady, using advanced intuitive techniques, has projected more RBI than negative RGI if Loney is in the outfield. He's also aware that Nomar isn't going to play 162.

23 That's sort of the point, that it's a long season and I would preach a little patience (though I understand why some may have none given past history) - but what you see to start the season, due to trades and injuries and shifts, will not be what you see 3 months later. We also don't know yet that Loney has not won a spot on the team. I agree Bills should be starting over Tomko, but can also understand the logic of starting it the other way- Bills needs to work on his control a little more, pitch frequently and for shorter stints until he gets that consistency and fully expect him to be starting before too long. (Not to sound too Pollyanna-ish here.) I may wait a little while before raging, at any rate.

Hey, Trainwreck, I thought you might like to know, the seventh season of Trailer Park Boys starts in Canada on April 8. Ten episodes this year. The season-long storyline is supposed to be about Julian and Ricky trying to smuggle large quantities of dope into the United States because the prices there for top quality stuff are much higher than they are in Canada. And the DVD for the sixth season goes on sale early in May.

27
Awesome! Thanks for the news. I heard Corey and Trevor are gone. What happened with that? I have also heard rumors this is the last season.

26-

Every game is important. I don't think there's a person who thinks that Tomko is better than Billingsley right now. To use a bit of manager jargon, Bills give us "the best chance to win", and in a division like this, where the division winner has been seperated from the next team by a scant few games the last few years, every game is important.

If the division is tight again this year, which is likely, there is no room for patience, only results.

29 I think we're all pretending that games mean less in April and May.

It just makes everything a little more palpable.

28 -- The guys who played Trevor and Cory decided to leave the show, and I don't believe they gave a reason, so it was probably a dispute over money. I have not heard anything about Season 7 being the last one, but I suppose it can't go on forever. Also, about the plan to smuggle dope into the US, I forgot to mention that the plan will involve laying down track for model trains that will take the "cargo" over the Maine border.

Although these things sometimes backfire and sometimes make me feel a twinge of nausea(think Rick Monday) the D's character campaign has yielded Martin, Ethier, Loney and others. For once, this seems to be positive in several ways, including talent.
Now just imagine Loney on steroids!
(ONLY KIDDING) Please,Please excuse me. I'm told I sometimes get manic.

32 Now just imagine Gonzo on steroids!

There, I fixed that for you.

Just great. The dodgers and their veterans, sticking with them for every possible second until they get hurt. Giving them a job for a decent spring despite their consistant medidocrity for their whole career. Applause dodgers, applause. Geez, I wish guys like Tomko and Hendrickson always had terrible springs, because the fact is, they really just are terrible pitchers. Bills>Tomdrickson 8 days a week, and still the job is given to Tomko! Why?

has there been any more news on Furcal? How long is he out for?

If we start the season without him, it seems completely obvious to me to put either Betemit or Nomar at SS so Loney can play first. That guy NEEDS to be getting AB's for this team.

Tomko doesn't annoy me too much. Much rather have him out there than Hendrickson. Still don't see why Bills doesn't have the job but oh well...a rotation of Lowe, Schmidt, Penny, Wolf and Tomko isn't half bad.

Let's just hope our offense doesn't start out too putrid....

Report from Vero Beach:

1. Furcal is walking well - he'll open the season batting #1.

2. I wasn't aware of the Hendrickson thing - that he could be released. That may change things.

3. Full Report:

http://ladodgertalk.com/2007/03/25/the-25-we-start-with-wont-be-the-ones-we-end-with.aspx

Given the propensity for Penny to get hurt, Schmidt to play hurt, and the fact that Wolf is rebooting his career with unknown results, I think the odds that Billingsley and Kuo will become regular starters is very high.

But the odds that Tomko will stay in the rotation all season are equally high, and for the same reasons.

Pierre got his first walk of the Spring. I'm really sad that D4P missed it.

He would be so proud.

Well that sucks.
Tomko wasnt pulled from the rotation last year until he got hurt.

If Schmidt/Penny get hurt, the rotation suddenly gets very weak.

39-

Well, Schmidt is okay so far, correct? Penny worries me...but again, at least we do have the depth to manage if anyone goes down.

I'm not necessarily too disappointed with Tomko starting the season if he has been pitching well, as long as he is traded in a month or two when hopefully his value will be higher (if a bunch of pitchers around the majors start getting hurt) and Kuo and/or Bills will be ready to start.

I'd be shocked if we can't trade Hendrickson for something and Ned just cuts him. Don't think it is happening.

BTW, if Kemp doesn't make the team and Bigbie does, which is what it looks like what is going to happen, who is our backup center fielder or we just assume Pierre plays every inning of every game, which is what he has done in the past.

I am bummed about Repko. I like him as a 4th outfielder/pinch runner and the right handed bat would be nice on this team. I think he has more potential than he has shown, but damn he is reckless and an injury waiting to happen every year.

I agree Bills should be starting over Tomko, but can also understand the logic of starting it the other way- Bills needs to work on his control a little more, pitch frequently and for shorter stints until he gets that consistency and fully expect him to be starting before too long.

I agree that Billingsley needs more experience. But can the Dodgers not just let him work out his problems in the rotation?

I mean, we all know that Brett Tomko sucks. He's not going to improve. There's no future in Brett Tomko.

If our #5 starter is going to inevitably suck (be it a veteran Tomko or a still learning Billingsley), why not go with the guy thats going to improve as time goes by?

I really dont think pitching Billingsley out of the bullpen helps him at all, unless they are trying to limit his innings. But even in doing so, its not a guarantee that will work. Pitching is really different starting/relieving.

This is just about as bad as Tracy playing Phillips at 1st instead of Choi. Its the exact same principle involved. Going with the crappy veteran over the youngster that might improve. Both could suck equally, but at least with one there's some hope involved for the future.

33 Ohhh Nooo. I think I was fixed along time ago by the female of the species. I was just to dumb to know it.

This is just about as bad as Tracy playing Phillips at 1st instead of Choi. Its the exact same principle involved.

I dont think its exactly the same. if phillips played, choi wouldnt play at all. tomko is starting, but billingsley is still going to be a big part of the bullpen and will be pitching major league innings. By midseason, their rolls will probably flip flop.

30-

Palpable or palatable?

Just a quick reminder of how tight the division/playoff races have been the last few years:

2006- San Diego and LA finish with 88-74 records each. Philly finishes three games back in the wild card from LA.

2005- The NL West is historically bad. San Diego wins with a record of 82-80. Arizona finishes five games back.

2004- Storybook year for LA, with a late-season win over SF to wrap up the division. SF finishes two games back of the division title, only one game back of wild-card winning Houston.

2003 was that insane year where the Giants somehow won 100 games, and left everyone in the NL West in the dust.

There is no clearly dominant team in this year's NL west, and there is a coherent argument for every team in the division to be competitive for the division title. We need to take advantage of ever, er, advantage available, not throw Tomko out there because he looks good in Spring Training. Ugh.

Sorry, but this kind of decision-making requires a good rant directed at nobody in particular.

If Elmer Dessens were going to be the starting 1B, instead of Loney, Nomar, Saenz, and Kent, that'd be the equivalent of starting Phillips at 1B.

45 I was hoping the folks would let that slide. I caught it too late.

Thanks for nothing!

I apologize for the typos in 45. For some reason, it wouldn't let me edit the post and I didn't feel like re-typing it.

I think things are better than we think. As long as we don't trade our good prospects, The vets can only play the young into the line-up either by sucking or getting injured. It is only if the good prospects(and they are mostly close, in the upper levels) get traded that we lose. The loss of Jackson, Tiffany, Guzman and a few more power hitters is marginal, and may not have hurt too much.(although I can't see why we would let power bats go.)
If however, there will be another bunch of swaps for tired vets, its not gonna work.
I don't think we need to worry.
Paranoia suggests there is a network of old coaches, managers and players who think:
hey, we can get us loyal vets millions and we deserve it! But I wont't believe this could be true.

45,30 or even palp------- there is a medical term I can't remember about working the flesh to get a diagnosis.

49
But, it also pointless to trade prospects for nothing. At the moment it seems we can do with Jackson, Tiffany, Navarro, etc, but what is the point of trading them for garbage. Those players had good value around the league. I am sure we could have gotten better deals than the ones we got. Might as well not deal them then.

*it's also...

Should say we can do without Jackson...

51 I couldn't agree more. I believed last year and again this, that we were in a position where we did not have to make a trade unless it was wildly in our favor. Many franchises are not in this position. And I would only trade for an (far) above average player. Our roster has a surplus of average players-why on earth would we trade to Hendrickson or Lugo?

First time I am seeing Kobe since he went on this barrage. Gone back to old Kobe.

I have teammates?

54

if i was in the same zone he has been in, i wouldnt have teammates either.

54 I am of the opinion that Kobe's teammates are terrible and he needs to score 50 per game. Plus, they are undefeated during his current scoring spree.

Kobe shooting all the time is preferable to Smush Parker ever touching the ball.

53
It was really worth giving up coveted prospects for a guy who sat on the bench.

Well I definitely agree that Smush should never touch the ball, but he did not pass the ball on a 2-on-1 break.

58 Odom is still scoring his points. Walton is nabbing six or seven assists per game. Bynum continues to come along, and the team is winning.

On the surface, Kobe scoring 50 per seems bad, but isn't it working? The alternative is...?

If the Lakers would have traded for Tyson Chandler when they had the chance, we wouldn't have this problem.

What I wouldn't give for a rebounding fool like Tyson Chandler.

I have no problem with Kobe scoring this much, but at least do the fundamental stuff like passing on the break.

Have the Lakers ever made a worse trade than Caron Butler for Kwame Brown? Was there ever any indication that Kwame was anything but a stiff and a bad person?

Shaq trade doesn't count.

i hate smush parker so much. so so much.

I started yelling,"Put in Farmar," at the beginning of the Laker game I went to.

You know, I really do feel bad for Jason Repko, especially reading the little piece on Dodgers.com today. I'd be emotional and frustrated as all heck, too, especially when you figure an injury isn't going to be that bad.

62 They probably have made a worse trade but I certainly can't think of one off the top of my head.

This was also interesting, in that same article:

[Meanwhile, Loney is making it virtually impossible to leave him off the roster. With three more hits Sunday his average is up to .444. He started in right field, where Little said Andre Ethier is still his starter, but Little cautioned reporters when the discussion turned to Loney returning to Triple-A.

"You've already got him in Triple-A and we haven't set the roster," Little said. "You might be a little off base."

Loney had trouble with a Grady Sizemore triple hit over his head, but Little seems willing to live with him as a novice outfielder.

"I have no doubt he'll drive in more runs than he lets in," Little said.

Loney wasn't thrilled with the suggestion of Triple-A, either.

"When I think of going there, it's like a kick in the stomach," said the Triple-A batting champ. "I just think about being ready to help this team. I hope what I'm doing matters. If it doesn't matter here, I hope it matters somewhere.]

65
Caron Butler was an All-Star this year.

Kwame Brown threw a birthday cake on somebody's head.

Good work, Mitch.

Kobe takes 14 shots in the first quarter and the Lakers are ahead by 10, he takes 4 shots through the next quarter and the Lakers go down by 6. The lesson? Kobe wants to prove to people that this is how the Lakers win. I bet he takes 20 shots in the fourth quarter.

Van Exel for Battie was pretty bad. Van Exel was coming off an All-Star year and it is not like he did not have trade value.

The Simpsons tonight had one of the funniest sight gags/in-jokes they've had in years. Reference to the show's initial cruder drawing style.

Okay, hope the Lakers don't blow this one. Have to suffer through listening to the Warriors announcers.

Someone has asked on a listserv I use if Luis Gonzalez set a record for most doubles in a player's final season in the majors.

Wishful thinking I guess.

Nice defense, Lakers.

Okay... gonna do work and then watch Pursuit of Happyness. The Lakers aren't gonna give me much "happyness" tonight.

72 - You may have given up a bit early. I don't even like the Lakers, but Kobe is 14 from 50 and it isn't like he won't have the chance to take the shots.

11 to go Kobe.

Hee. I didn't give up as it turned out, I just muted the sound so I didn't have to listen to the Warriors' announcers and then have witnessed the Lakers comeback - thanks in part, too, to Walton and Turiaf, not just Kobe (but definitely Kobe). Glad I stuck around.

Cross your fingers and hope for overtime.

Only 43? What a bum.

Lamar Odom was pretty awesome. He had 24 points, 19 rebounds.

What about D Young as the 4th outfielder? He is hitting .333 this spring.

That's a good point - what about Delwyn Young? He's older than Kemp, doesn't seem to get much consideration probably because his ceiling isn't as high as Kemp's. But Young seems kind of forgotten.

I think he will be lucky to get Aybar status in Ned's eyes.

I don't think he has a shot unless he bounces back from last year quickly. The man only hit .273/.326/.457 in Vegas. He hit decently against righties, but we have enough guys who do that. Right now he looks no better than Marlon Anderson or Bigbie and he's not proven, so not this year. Maybe 2008 when he's out of options and Anderson is gone.

Ok this is just crazy:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GHrLB_mlir4

82 - Keep in mind that Marlon can play OF and IF though...

and here is the Los Angelino version (slight language prob):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=og8PJaYzv44

83 Wasn't Delywn a second baseman? I think he can play the position to the same extent that Anderson can.

Please forgive me if I'm encroaching on Number 5 but I found this hysterical and sad.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KM_MkWgbt3k
Stay for the ending.

D Young is going to have a monster year in AAA.

RE Tomko, maybe Ned is actually putting some advanced thinking into this decision (can't believe I just wrote that), i.e. pitcher abuse points and the injury nexus for young pitchers in particular. In other words, I think the main reason they're not going with Bills in April is because they're worried about a full season's workload. It is really the only way to justify the choice that makes any sense.

And if that's their thinking, we should be applauding it. Because not only is it a realistic concern that Bills couldn't yet handle 200+ innings, but it's a concern that never would have occurred to many of our previous GMs.

87 That's what I was trying to get at earlier but didn't articulate it. That is a legit reason to not have Bills start the season as starting pitcher (separate from showcasing Tomko for a possible trade down the line, which is my own fantasy). Some have argued, why not start him in AAA then so he can build up the stamina as a starter - but they'd rather not wear him out, wherever he's pitching. I think it's fine. And I'm not writing off April for the Dodgers as far as wins and losses either. Especially not if Furcal is okay to start the season.

BP on how the Dodgers can win the pennant by Jay Jaffe:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6018

He even gives out a Ned Flanders mention.

87 & 88

Yeah, sort of the same as w/ Loney. From what I see Grady seems to acknowledge both that Loney needs to be in the lineup and that Nomar needs rest. Same deal here. Why NOT take advantage of the spring Tomko and let Bills work up to it.

From BA MLB preview:

"#4 SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS

QUICK TAKE: After admitting it was time to alter their plan of surrounding Barry Bonds with older players, the Giants re-signed Bonds . . . and surrounded him with older players."

Fresh morning post.

Is that decaffeinated post?